BELL LABS EXPERTS FORESEE RADICAL CHANGES
IN COMMUNICATIONS IN THE THIRD MILLENNIUM
We’ll Connect Our “Metaphones” to the Communications Skin
Murray Hill, NJ – By the year 2025 the entire world will be encased in a
communications skin, according to experts at Lucent Technologies’ (NYSE: LU) Bell Labs.
“We are already building the first layer of a mega network that will cover the entire
planet like a skin, says Arun Netravali, president of Bell Labs. “As communication continues
to become faster, smaller, cheaper and smarter in the next millennium, this skin, fed by a
constant stream of information, will grow larger and more useful.”
This skin will consist of millions of electronic measuring devices-- thermostats,
pressure gauges, pollution detectors, cameras, microphones -- monitoring cities, roadways
and the environment. All of these will transmit data directly into the network, just as our skin
transmits a constant stream of sensory data to our brains,” said Netravali. Such systems
might be used for anything from constantly monitoring the traffic on a local road, water level
in a river to the temperature at the beach or the supply of food in a refrigerator.
These sensors will be just one source of an increasing amount of machine-tomachine and object-to-object communication in the future. In fact by 2010, Netravali
predicts that the volume of this “infrachatter” will actually surpass communication between
humans.
“At home, your dishwasher will be able to call its manufacturer when it is
malfunctioning and the manufacturer will run diagnostics remotely, he explains. “Or your
lawn sprinkler could check the web site of the National Weather Service before turning itself
on, to make sure the forecast doesn’t call for rain.”
Bell Labs experts also predict that as the millennium unfolds communications
advances will make waiting by the phone, surfing the Internet, and traveling for business as
antiquated as using carbon paper is today.
The end of waiting by the phone
“Software-driven intelligent networks and wireless technology will enable people to be
reached wherever they are and will give the consumer the power to choose if a message will
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be an email, voice mail or video clip,” predicts Rich Howard, wireless research director at
Bell Labs.
Anytime communications will be propelled by “system on a chip” technology that will
create a future in which communications devices will be the size of jewelry. These
“metaphones” will be able to understand our voices. “Dialing a phone will be a concept
learned only in history classes. Placing a call to mom will be as simple as saying ‘mom’,”
said Joseph Olive, director of language modeling at Bell Labs, “The small metaphones on
your lapel will be able to read web sites and e-mail to you.”
Bell Labs’ postage-stamp-sized “camera on a chip,” for example, produces video
images that rival the quality of those produced by camcorders. Together with microscopic
microphones also invented at Bell Labs, the video chip could form the basis of a videophone
that could fit on your wrist.
Immersion delivers on virtual reality
Major advances in videoconferencing and high-speed networking will lead to a rise in
telecommuting to virtual offices and to virtual business travel as well. In the Age of Virtuality,
videoconferencing will evolve into more realistic “virtual-conferencing”. Thousands of 360degree cameras and stereo microphones placed around sporting events, music concerts
and business meetings will give web participants full control of what they are seeing, hearing
and experiencing.
“Lucent is already designing Internet-based videoconferencing that delivers highquality video and audio to multiple parties at low cost. When this is combined with
directional microphones, surround-sound audio, and 3-D images, the effect is much closer to
that of a face-to-face meeting,” says Raju Rishi, strategy director of product management at
Bell Labs.
As the technology grows more “immersive” there will no longer be a need for
business colleagues to gather in one building.
Invisible, intelligent Internet
The Internet will transform from an avalanche of data into a smarter “HiQNet” in
which personal “cyberclones” will constantly anticipate our information wants, needs and
preferences. Users will have their cyberclones screen the Web, filter out irrelevant
information and present it in the best format.
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This HiQNet, which will be as immediate as dial tone is today, will be so integral to
our lives it will become practically invisible. People will use anything from a TV to a wireless
lapel phone for access.
"The first communication revolution of the 20th Century gave us telephone-based
communications. The second gave us computer-based communications like email and the
Internet. The 21st Century will bring us a knowledge-based communications revolution,"
said Kenan Sahin, Bell Labs vice president of software technology. “We will be able to use
intelligent network software to enhance and expand human knowledge.”
We will be able to get expert help for everything from sending baby photos to our
family to finding the perfect job. That same network intelligence may also save people
money. “You’ll be able to say to your communications device, ‘I want to talk to Bob in
Chicago,’ and the device will get you the best deal on the connection,” said Sahin.
“The Internet will evolve from being a complexity in our lives that we have to spend
time mastering, to a behind-the-scenes tool that will improve our quality of life and, in the
end, make us more human, not less,” said Sahin.
Lucent Technologies, headquartered in Murray Hill, N.J., designs, builds and delivers
a wide range of public and private networks, communication systems and software, data
networking systems, business telephone systems and microelectronic components. Bell
Labs is the research and development arm of the company. Bell Labs’ scientists are
currently specializing in optical networking, data networking, voice networking, wireless
technology, software, speech technology and microelectronics. For more information,
please visit www.bell-labs.com.
THE TECHNOLOGIES BEHIND THE PREDICTIONS
The communications predictions in the preceding release are based on some key technology
trends:
Bandwidth Increases
We are doubling the capacity of optical fiber every nine month. Researchers at Bell
Labs recently demonstrated the world’s first long-distance, error-free transmission of a trillion
bits (terabit) per second over a single strand of fiber. One terabit per second is enough
bandwidth to transmit 500,000 movies simultaneously. Driving these massive transmissions
is one of Bell Labs’ most recent optical breakthrough -- putting 1,000 channels or
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wavelengths on one fiber. At the current rate of progress, we estimate that in ten years a
single fiber will carry a quadrillion bits per second. This will put nearly limitless amounts of
bandwidth at users’ fingertips. It is this plentiful and inexpensive bandwidth that will enable
high-quality videoconferencing and faster, “always-on” Internet connections in the next
century.
Electronics Miniaturization
There has been a tremendous decrease in the size of all kinds of electronics. In the
last few years, Bell Labs has developed the world's smallest transistor, a video camera on a
chip and microelectronic machines. “As the millennium unfolds, we will be able to create
denser chips that will enable entire systems to be put on a single chip,” said Mark Pinto,
chief technical officer for Lucent’s Microelectronics Group. “ For example, we estimate that
we will be able to put all of the electronics for a cell phone on one chip.”
These chips will make possible a new class of tiny devices such as cell phones the
size of a quarter, PCs the size of a wallet and high resolution monitors the size of an
eyeglass lens. This will also lead to a convergence between optical and wireless networks.
Eventually micro-wireless towers will be so small they will become a part of the optical fiber
that will be laid everywhere, creating true uninterrupted network coverage.
Software Advances
Networks in the future will be customized to individual people, thanks to servlets,
executable software applications that can run on network servers. “These will tailor your
network interface to your individual needs and preferences. and keep information you need
readily available at all times,” said Murali Aravamudan, chief technical officer of converged
network solutions. “When you travel, your personal servlets will be cached in a local server,
so wherever you are, you’ll have the same ‘view’ of the network.” The servlets will offer new
kinds of communications services, including voice dialing, unified messaging and intelligent
Web searching.
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