System Status Briefing
(January – March 2016)
BRIAN MOLEFE
Group Chief Executive
May 2016
CONFIDENTIAL
Contents
1 Executive summary of performance
2
Maintenance overview
3 Outlook
4 New build update
5 Majuba power station silo & Duvha unit 3 updates
6 Conclusion
Performance Highlights since October 2015 (1/2)
Description
• No load shedding has been implemented since August 2015
Maintenance
without load
shedding
• Average planned maintenance (PCLF) 12.52% since August 2015
• Eskom’s prognosis for FY2016/17 is that there will be no load shedding
• Availability has increased from ~70% in October 2015 to ~76% in April 2016
• This is largely due to a decrease in breakdowns (Unplanned Capacity Loss
Increased
availability
factor and other loss factors) from ~18% in October 2015 to ~12% in April 2016
• Additional capacity added to the national grid excluding Medupi through
improvements in EAF from ~70% to ~76% in April is 2 599 MW
• Including Medupi the total capacity added is 3 279 MW
Performance Highlights since October 2015 (2/2)
Description
• Eskom has managed to synchronise the first two Ingula units (3 & 4) to the
New capacity
national grid, ahead of schedule on 3 March and 25 March 2016 respectively
• Medupi unit 6 commercially operational since August 2015
• OCGT energy sent out has decreased from 381GWh in October 2015 to
Low diesel
usage and
spend
6GWh April 2016
• This resulting in a decrease in diesel costs from R854m to less than R25m
from October 2015 to April 2016
Contents
1 Executive summary of performance
2 Maintenance overview
3 Outlook
4 New build update
5 Majuba power station silo & Duvha unit 3 updates
6 Conclusion
Eskom has excess capacity of up to 11 000 MW after
evening peak, as a result of improved Eskom performance
Illustration of the summer and winter profiles
MW
Insights
Average System Summer Profile
• After evening peak,
Eskom is required to
drop load of
approximately 11 000
MW, however this
capacity will be required
for the next evening
peak
11 000 MW
• Eskom has had to
manage the excess
capacity by either
• operating a unit for two
8 hour shifts instead of
three 8 hour shifts
• switch units off for
longer periods
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
35000
34000
33000
32000
31000
30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
Average System Winter Profile
6
Maintenance overview
•
The Tetris maintenance plan has been optimised to ensure no load
shedding
•
The optimisation of the Tetris plan has been completed within the
following criteria:
• summer maintenance budget 11 500 MW
• winter maintenance budget 8 500 MW
• maximum OCGT load factor of 6%
•
Our month to date performance on the 11 May 2016
• 78.1 % - Energy availability
• 9.2% - Break downs1
• 12.7 % - planned outages
•
In terms of our existing Generation Sustainability Strategy, our aim is
to achieve 80% plant availability, 10% planned maintenance and 10%
unplanned maintenance over the medium term
1 Includes breakdowns and other non plant losses
Plant performance has been improving steadily
since October 2015
Performance over the past seven months
Percentage
Breakdowns1
Planned maintenance
Available energy
Insights
18,1%
12,0%
70,0%
Oct-15
17,4%
12,3%
70,3%
Nov-15
14,7%
16,0%
69,3%
Dec-15
17,0%
11,2%
71,8%
Jan-16
15,6%
9,8%
74,7%
Feb-16
12,9%
11,8%
9,2%
12,9%
12,0%
12,7%
76,2%
74,2%
Mar-16
Apr-16
1 - Includes breakdowns and other non plant losses
2 – month to date performance on 11 May 2016
8
78,1%
May-162
• Available energy has steadily
increased since October 2015
• In December the availability
dropped to 69%, because
Eskom took advantage of the
lower demand to perform more
planned maintenance
• The increase in availability is
also attributed to the decrease
in breakdowns
• Additional capacity added to
the national grid excluding
Medupi through improvements
in EAF from ~70% to ~76% in
April is 2 599 MW
• Including Medupi the total
capacity added is 3 279 MW
OCGT usage and costs have both decreased as
a result of improved Generation availability
OCGT performance over the past seven months
Energy Send Out (GWh)
400
381
Insights
350
• The load factor
has decreased
from ~21.2% to
~0.4%
288
300
250
200
180
• The energy sent
out from OCGT’s
has decreased
from 381 GWh to
6 GWh
150
100
100
50
21
6
6
0
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Load
Factor (%)
21.2
16.6
10.6
5.6
1.3
0.4
0.4
Cost (R’m)
854
555
278
187
62
25
25
9
• The above
mention has
resulted in costs
decreasing from
R854 m to R25 m
Today’s performance
Screen shot of Eskom’s Generation Dashboard
Insights
•
•
The maintenance budget was 8 788 MW as of 12 May 2016 at 07h53 (sum of planned
maintenance, forced outages and partial load losses)
This translates into an EAF of 80%1
1 The percentage difference between the available capacity and operational MW.
The surplus at 12:00 will be 4 704 MW
Source: Performance data as per GPSS
Contents
1 Executive summary of performance
2 Maintenance overview
3 Outlook
4 New build update
5 Majuba power station silo & Duvha unit 3 updates
6 Conclusion
Outlook
•
Our prognosis for winter is that there will be no load shedding
•
We will continue with a rigorous program of planned maintenance
without implementing load shedding while also minimising usage of
open cycle gas turbines
•
For winter, Eskom is targeting a maintenance budget of 8 500 MW, in
summer we budget 11 500 MW
•
Renewable energy will continue to contribute up to Photovoltaic 800
MW and wind 500 MW of the total installed capacity of 2 310 MW of
electricity generated during the day from solar and wind including
Eskom’s Sere wind farm
The Tetris plan indicates no loadshedding for the
remainder of the year
Available Capacity
Operating Reserves
Planned Maintenance
Plant Breakdowns
Peak Demand
Installed Capacity
45000
Installed Capacity is the total
generating
capacity from Eskom’s
Summer Plant Breakdowns
combined fleet
7000 MW
Winter Plant Breakdowns
Plant Breakdowns
6000 MW
40000
Plant Breakdowns: from the available capacity we
subtract the anticipated breakdowns
Planned Maintenance
35000
Operating Reserve
30000
25000
Planned Maintenance: from this we also need to
subtract the planned maintenance
Operating Reserve: 2000 MW buffer to cater for sudden
Increase in load or if generating units are lost
Peak Demand: the forecasted demand does not exceed the
available capacity and we still have the 2000 MW of operating
Available Capacity
reserve as a buffer. Therefore the prognosis is no loadshedding
for the remainder of the year
Available Capacity: the capacity available to meet the demand
we now have to superimpose the demand forecast for the year
to compare it with the this available capacity.
20000
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
2016
Tetris V4.15
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
2017
Mar
1 Planned Maintenance – May to August 2016
Available Capacity = Installed Capacity - Peak Demand - UCLF
Eskom is targeting a maintenance budget of 8.5 GW for Winter months
Available Capacity to do planned maintenance and
meet operating reserve
Komati 6
Tutuka 4
Kendal 1
Operating Reserve
Tutuka 1
Matla 1
Grootvlei 5
Komati 5
Ankerlig 3
Tutuka 6
Grootvlei 6
Camden 3
Tutuka 2
Kendal 4
HCB 1
Matimba 4
Lethabo 1
Ankerlig 4
Gourikwa 1
Komati 7
Matla 2
Hendrina 1
Grootvlei 1
Grootvlei 2
Arnot 1
Drakensberg 4
Palmiet 1
Hendrina 6
Kendal 5
Komati 9
Camden 2
Majuba 6
Lethabo 6
Tutuka 3
Ankerlig 2
Komati 3
Kriel 3
Hendrina 7
The no loadshedding plan allows for available capacity as we seldom dip into the operating reserves
Source: Tetris Plan V4.15
14
Planned Maintenance – September to
December 2016
2
Available Capacity = Installed Capacity - Peak Demand - UCLF
Eskom
10000
is targeting a maintenance budget of 11.5 GW for summer months
9000
Lethabo 4
8000
Hendrina 4
7000
Majuba 5
Duvha 6
6000
HCB 1
Tutuka 5
Matla 3
Drakensberg 1
Majuba 3
Hendrina
3
Ankerlig 1
Hendrina 7
Ankerlig 7
Koeberg 1
Ankerlig 3
The no loadshedding plan allows for available capacity
2016 as we seldom dip into the operating reserves
30-Dec
27-Dec
24-Dec
21-Dec
30-Nov
27-Nov
24-Nov
21-Nov
18-Nov
15-Nov
12-Nov
09-Nov
Camden 1
Hendrina 10
06-Nov
03-Nov
31-Oct
28-Oct
25-Oct
22-Oct
19-Oct
16-Oct
13-Oct
10-Oct
07-Oct
04-Oct
01-Oct
28-Sep
25-Sep
22-Sep
19-Sep
16-Sep
13-Sep
10-Sep
07-Sep
04-Sep
Grootvlei 2
Hendrina 1
Camden 2
01-Sep
0
Kriel 4
Drakensberg 2
Matla 2
Komati 7
1000
18-Dec
Kendal 5
Lethabo 5
15-Dec
Gourikwa 1
2000
Medupi 6
Gourikwa 2
Grootvlei 1
Gariep 4
Ankerlig 4
12-Dec
Komati 5
Tutuka 4
Matimba 6
09-Dec
3000
Gourikwa 3
06-Dec
Matimba 4
Majuba 4
Komati 6
Matla 1
Komati 4
03-Dec
4000
Lethabo 3
Majuba 2
Vanderkloof 1
Hendrina 2
Duvha 2
Kendal 1
Operating Reserve
5000
Kriel 1
1
3
Planned Maintenance – January 2017 to
March 2017
Available Capacity = Installed Capacity - Peak Demand - UCLF
Eskom is targeting a maintenance budget of 11.5 GW for summer months
The no loadshedding plan allows for available capacity as we seldom dip into the operating reserves
Source: Tetris Plan V4.15
1
6
Contents
1 Executive summary of performance
2 Maintenance overview
3 Outlook
4 New build update
5 Majuba power station silo & Duvha unit 3 updates
6 Conclusion
New Build Update (1/2)
•
Eskom has managed to synchronise the first Ingula units (3 & 4) to the
national grid, ahead of schedule on 3 March and 25 March 2016 respectively
•
Medupi Unit 6 was commissioned on 23 August 2015, adding 794 MW to
South Africa’s electricity grid
•
Medupi Unit 5 draught group run and dry fires were completed in March
2016, followed by the completion of the chemical cleaning of the unit in April
2016, which are important milestones towards first oil- and coal fires, leading
to boiler blow through and ultimately commercial operation of the unit
•
Medupi Unit 5 is expected to be commercially operational in March 2018
(P80)
New Build Update (2/2)
•
Kusile power station continues to achieve set milestones on the path for Unit
1 commercial operation
•
Kusile Unit 1 is expected to be commercially operational in July 2018 (P80)
•
The construction of Transmission lines and the commissioning of
transformers have exceeded the targets for the 2015/16 financial year.
These are 346km of transmission lines constructed and 2 435 MVAs of
substation capacity commissioned
•
Since inception in 2005, the capacity expansion programme so far added
7 031 MW of generation capacity, 6 162 km of transmission lines and
32 090 MVA of substation capacity to the national grid
We remain focused on bringing new capacity
online
P80 dates
CO = commercial operation
CO in Mar 2015
CO in Aug 2015
CO by Mar 2017
100
794
333
333
800
Aug 2015
Medupi Unit 6
Mar 2017
Ingula Unit 4
Jul 2017
Ingula Unit 1
Jul 2018
Kusile Unit 1
Mar 2015
Sere Wind Farm
CO by Jul 2018
CO by Jul 2017
5 620MW
Post MYPD 3
Mar 2015
Majuba recovery
Jan 2017
Ingula Unit 3
1200
333
CO by Jan 2017
600MW from Unit 3 gap
solution in Feb 2015
600MW from Unit 4 in
Mar 2015
Mar 2018
Medupi Unit 5
2019/20
Duvha Unit 3
333
794
600
CO by May 2017
CO by Mar 2018
Fully recovered
Project falls outside
MYPD3 window
May 2017
Ingula Unit 2
New capacity will fuel the South African economy
Additional MW to be added to the South African grid
Installed capacity (MW)
Medupi + Sere
Ingula
Kusile
Current capacity
55,000
51,789
50,195
50,000
45,000
47,807
44,087
894
45,419
2,482
894
800
1,332
1,332
4,070
1,600
1,332
4,864
2,400
1,332
52,589
4,864
3,200
1,332
Insights
• Eskom is
progressively
adding capacity
over the next
seven years
53,389
4,864
4,000
1,332
40,000
40,000
35,000
43,193
43,193
43,193
43,193
43,193
43,193
43,193
10,000
• Ingula will be fully
commissioned in
2017
• Medupi will be
fully
commissioned by
2020
• Kusile will be fully
commissioned by
2022
5,000
0
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Contents
1 Executive summary of performance
2 Maintenance overview
3 Outlook
4 New build update
5 Majuba power station silo & Duvha unit 3 updates
6 Conclusion
Majuba Power Station silo & Duvha Unit 3 update
Majuba Permanent solution
•
•
Duvha unit 3 update
Construction completion of the
permanent solution for the recovery of
the coal silo at Majuba is on track for
completion by end December 2017
(P80)
•
The letter of contractor
appointment has been issued
•
Finalisation of the contract detail is
in progress
Plans to accelerate completion are in
place and progressing well
•
Contractors to be on site by midyear for construction to commence
Contents
1 Executive summary of performance
2 Maintenance overview
3 Outlook
4 New build update
5 Majuba power station silo & Duvha unit 3 updates
6 Conclusion
Reasons for no load shedding
Description
Leadership
involvement
• Alignment in all structures to new leadership’s vision
• Adherence to maintenance plan and discipline execution
• Tetris - outage planning tool to optimise when outages should
be scheduled, with minimal diesel usage
Additional
capacity
already added
• Medupi Unit 6 in August 2015
– 700 MW
• Dedisa an IPP in October 2015
– 334 MW
• Ingula Unit 4 is available for dispatch – 333 MW
New capacity
to be added
• Avon IPP Peaking will be fully commissioned by October 2016
• Ingula will be fully commissioned in 2017
• Medupi will be fully commissioned by 2020
• Kusile will be fully commissioned by 2022
Improved
plant
performance
• Breakdowns including other capacity loss factors have
decreased from ~18% down to 12% in seven months
• A deliberate focus on ensuring our units run at optimum levels
• Thus increasing the energy availability from 71% to 76%
Conclusion
•
Eskom has stabilised and we don’t anticipate load shedding
•
To date we have not implemented load shedding in 9 months (except for
2 hours and 20 minutes)
•
We will continue with planned maintenance and we remain focused on
delivering on our capital expansion programme
•
We appreciate the support of all our customers and urge them to
continue to use electricity sparingly at all times
•
Once completed in the next five years, our capacity expansion
programme will increase our generation capacity by 17 384MW,
transmission lines by 9 756km and substation capacity by 42 470MVA
•
This will enable us to provide security of electricity supply to South
African homes and businesses, powering economic expansion and
extending electricity to millions of households
Thank you