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Labor Market and Demographic Analysis:
A National Picture of Short-term
Employment Growth by Skill
Pamela Loprest & Josh Mitchell
Unemployment and
Recovery Project
May 2012
Unemployment and Recovery Project
This w orking paper is part of the Unemployment and Recovery project, an Urban Institute initiative to assess
unemployment’ s effect on individuals, families, and communities; gauge government policies’ effectiveness; and
recommend policy changes to boost job creation, improve w orkers’ job prospects, and support out -of-w ork
Americans. This w ork is funded in part by the Center for Community Change. The authors gratefully acknow ledge
the research assistance of Janice Park.
Copyright © May 2012
The view s expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Urban Institute, its trustees,
or its funders. Permission is granted for reproduction of this document, w ith attribution to the Urban Institute .
Labor Market and Demographic Analysis:
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill
Pamela Loprest and Josh Mitchell
Executive Summary
It is almost three years since the official end of the Great Recession—the worst economic
downturn since the Great Depression. Yet there are only limited signs of genuine labor market
recovery. Employment remains well below its pre-recession 2007 peak even though
employment has grown over the past five quarters at about the same rate as it grew following
past recessions. The unemployment rate continues to exceed 8 percent, and many economists,
including the Congressional Budget Office, predict it will remain above 8 percent for the next
several years. The Federal Reserve recently forecast the unemployment rate at between 6.8
and 7.7 percent at the end of 2014.
Despite this dreary national outlook, there is some cause for optimism. Between the fourth
quarter of 2010 and fourth quarter of 2011, the US experienced a net total increase of 1.7
million jobs and forecasters project additional increases over the next few years. 1 Exhibit 1
depicts the slow but improving recovery through 2011 following the dramatic fall in
employment during the Great Recession, where the economy lost over 8.4 million jobs.
Economists project employment to grow from 2012 to 2017 at an average rate of roughly 1.8
percent per year.
1 Current and historical employment and employment by industry numbers in this report are from the Current
Employment Statistics (CES) data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Industry projections are from
Moody’s Analytics. The CES covers non-farm payroll employment. Excluded groups include the self-employed,
domestic, and unpaid workers. See Appendix for further details.
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page 1
Exhibit 1. Total Nonfarm Employment
(thousands)
150,000
145,000
140,000
135,000
130,000
125,000
120,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: BLS Current Employment Statistics and Moody's Analytics
Over the next five years, employment growth is projected to be slightly higher for jobs that
require both the lowest and highest levels of education, although job growth is modest to
slow across the board. The prospects for low-skill workers in the short-term are best in the
leisure and hospitality sector and the professional and business services sector, with
additional jobs appearing in construction as that sector continues to recover. A companion
portrait of unemployed workers highlights that a disproportionate number of those seeking
work are low-skilled. In addition, low-skilled unemployed are more likely to be young, workers
of color, or have a health problem that interferes with work than similarly skilled employed or
higher-skilled unemployed workers, factors that are likely to make finding work in a slack labor
market even more challenging.
National Employment Picture: Long, Slow Recovery
During the Great Recession, some sectors were hit harder than others, and during the recovery,
sectors are regaining employment at different rates. Exhibit 2 shows employment for selected
industry sectors since the beginning of the recession. Employment in 2007 is normed to 1.0
across industries allowing for easier comparisons of growth in employment across industries
starting from this base year. 2 The solid lines show actual employment and the dotted lines
2
The graphic shows only eight of thirteen industries for ease of viewing (the legend read from left to right lists
industries from highest to lowest in 2017). The level of employment varies substantially across all these industries.
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page 2
show projections into the future. The construction industry has been hit the hardest, followed
by the manufacturing industry.
The only sectors with employment increases in 2011 since the beginning of the recession (over
1.0 in the graphic) are health services (private sector), leisure, and hospitality. Projections for
future employment growth over the next 5 years show improvements in all sectors, but even
with continued growth, construction, manufacturing, wholesale, and retail trade are not
projected to regain prior 2007 employment levels by 2017.
Exhibit 2. Change in Employment since 2007
1.40
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
2007
2008
2009
2010
Health Services
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Leisure and Hospitality
Professional and Business Services
Total Government
Financial Activities
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Construction
2016
2017
Source: BLS Current Employment Statistics and Moody's Analytics
To understand what sectoral growth means for job seekers and to put employment recovery
rates in context, we examine the present distribution of employment in the economy. Exhibit 3
shows the percent of total non-farm employment by broad industry category in 2011. Despite
continuing declines in employment, total government (combined federal, state, and local which
includes teachers, firefighters, and police officers) is the largest industry sector, accounting for
16.7 percent of employment. Wholesale and retail trades also remain large, accounting for
15.4 percent of all employment. The next two largest sectors are professional and business
The level of employment and net employment change numbers for all thirteen industries from 2007 to 2011 are
reported in Appendix Exhibit A.1.
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page 3
services (13.3 percent), and health services (12.7 percent). Manufacturing is 8.9 percent of
employment and construction is 4.2 percent of employment. 3
Exhibit 3. Distribution of Employment by Industry 2011
Total Government
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Professional and Business Services
Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Manufacturing
Financial Activities
Construction
Other Services
Transportation and Utilities
Educational Services
Information
Mining
16.7%
15.4%
13.3%
12.7%
10.2%
8.9%
5.8%
4.2%
4.1%
3.7%
2.5%
2.0%
0.6%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0%
Source: BLS Current Employment Statistics.
Jobs can also be grouped into occupations which reflect job activities and duties. Using a fairly
high level of aggregation, occupations may fall within one of twenty-two groups.4 Within
industries, the mix of occupations differs. For example, construction occupations are obviously
a large part of the construction industry, but there are also management and administrative
jobs within that industry.5 Exhibit 4 shows the distribution of national employment in 2011 by
occupations. The largest occupation categories in 2011 were office and administrative support
(accounting for 17.9 percent of employment) and sales occupations (accounting for 11.9
percent of employment).
3
In our categorization, we include public school education employees (including teachers and higher education
instructors) in the education sector. The standard CES categorization includes these workers in the government
sector.
4
Occupation data come from the BLS Occupational Employment Statistics. See appendix for further details.
5
Appendix exhibit A.2 shows industry by occupation employment for 2011.
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page 4
Exhibit 4. Distribution of Employment by Major Occupation 2011
Office and Administrative Support
Sales and Related
Food Preparation and Serving Related
7.7%
Transportation and Material Moving
7.2%
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
6.1%
Business and Financial Operations
5.7%
Education, Training, and Library
5.6%
Construction and Extraction
5.1%
Management
5.1%
Personal Care and Service
4.0%
Computer and Mathematical
3.9%
Building and Grounds Cleaning and…
3.4%
Production
3.4%
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and…
2.9%
Protective Service
2.4%
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical
2.2%
Architecture and Engineering
1.8%
Community and Social Service
1.0%
Healthcare Support
1.0%
Legal
0.9%
Life, Physical, and Social Science
0.8%
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry
0.1%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
17.9%
11.9%
15.0%
20.0%
Source: BLS Current Employment Statistics & Moody's Analytics
Employment and Skill Levels
A key dimension for understanding the impact of the slow recovery on different groups of
workers is the skill-level requirements of both the jobs that were lost and the jobs that are
being created. The recession affected workers of various skill levels differently. Low-skill
workers lost a higher percentage of jobs in the recession than higher skilled workers.
Employment for those with less than a high-school education fell by more than 10 percent over
the course of the recession. 6 Employment losses were lower as skill-level increased – 9.1
percent for high school, 3.9 percent for those with some college, and roughly flat for those with
a college degree or more.
6
These numbers are based on the BLS employment situation numbers, table A-4 for December 2007 to December
2009, the low point of employment following the start of the recession. See P. Loprest and A. Nichols (2011) “Less
Educated Continue to Lose Jobs in Recovery” The Urban Institute for more information
http://www.urban.org/url.cfm?ID=412382.
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page 5
The skill requirements associated with newly-created jobs are one indication of the likely
demand for workers at different skill levels. We use educational attainment here as a measure
of skill level. 7 In national employment data we do not observe the educational level
requirements of jobs, but the education level of those who are employed in the jobs. During a
recession, some individuals work in jobs requiring a lower level of education than they have.
This means the education levels of those holding jobs in the recession is likely a bad proxy for
education requirements of the jobs. To get a better measure of the education level
requirements of jobs, we use pre-recession information from 2007 on the distribution of
education levels of the workers within individual occupations and industries. This will also
include some individuals with education levels above and below the actual job requirements,
but we expect this bias to be far less than the bias during a recession or early recovery period.
Exhibit 5 shows the distribution of jobs of differing skill level requirements across different
industries.
Exhibit 5. Educational Attainment Requirement by Industry
Construction
Educational Services
Financial Activities
Health Services
Information
Leisure and Hospitality
Manufacturing
Mining
Other Services
Professional and Business Services
Total Government
Transportation and Utilities
Wholesale and Retail Trade
No HS
Degree
HS
Degree
Some
College
0.25
0.04
0.04
0.06
0.05
0.27
0.13
0.13
0.16
0.09
0.04
0.10
0.13
0.41
0.12
0.23
0.23
0.22
0.32
0.38
0.41
0.33
0.22
0.21
0.41
0.37
0.24
0.22
0.32
0.36
0.32
0.29
0.26
0.28
0.28
0.27
0.27
0.31
0.32
Bachelor's Advanced
Degree
Degree
0.08
0.31
0.32
0.22
0.32
0.11
0.17
0.12
0.15
0.28
0.27
0.14
0.15
0.02
0.31
0.09
0.13
0.09
0.02
0.07
0.06
0.09
0.14
0.22
0.03
0.03
Source: Authors' calculations using BLS Current Population Survey, 2007
The required skill levels of jobs vary substantially across industries. For example, while 24
percent of construction jobs require less than a high school degree and 41 percent require a
high school degree, in the government sector, 27 percent of jobs require a college degree and
22 percent an advanced degree.
7
Although education is only one dimension of the skill requirements of jobs, it is the only measure available in
national data sets that also allow us to track industry and occupation employment.
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page 6
The skill requirements in this exhibit reflect the different requirements for specific occupations
and the underlying distribution of occupations within each industry. 8 For example, in the
construction industry most of the jobs are in the construction and extraction occupation.
Consequently, the distribution of skill requirement for this occupation (22 percent less than
high school, 44 percent high school, 20 percent some college, 4 percent college, and 1 percent
advanced degree) is closely aligned to the skill requirements for the industry. Employment in
the health services industry is spread across more occupations – primarily management,
business and finance; professional and related; services; and office and administrative
occupations. Each of these occupations within health services has different educational
requirements, which summed together give industry educational requirements.
Job Growth in the Near Term
What does the slow recovery mean for job growth by sector and for workers of different skill
levels moving forward? It is typical after a recession that some sectors recover more quickly
than others. In this past recession, the collapse of the housing market led to huge declines in
construction employment, and continuing foreclosures and declining home prices have
contributed to the slow recovery in that sector. Meanwhile, the large healthcare sector
continued to grow faster than other sectors over the past year.
We examine what forecasts of employment by sector over the next five years mean for
industry/occupation growth and skill requirements. Our national employment forecast by
industry for 2012 through 2017 is based on data from Moody’s Analytics, Inc. Net employment
growth over this period is projected to be 11.3 percent. The measure “net employment
growth” provides information on new job creation that is over and above any job destruction
occurring in a given industry. 9 This is not the same as the total number of new jobs created over
the period. The US economy is dynamic, even in this sluggish recovery; firms go out of business
and new firms open. If there were no change in employment level for an industry over a year
(no net employment growth), new jobs would still have been created and others destroyed
over the time period, just in a balanced number. We apply our knowledge of the distribution of
occupations within industries and the distribution of educational attainment within occupations
to arrive at job projections by skill level.
Exhibit 6 shows employment in 2011 and projected employment in 2017 by industry.
8
A complete industry occupation distribution of requirements by education level is in the appendix. See Exhibit A.3.
The net employment change is also different from job openings which includes job turnover, that is, someone
leaving a job and a new person filling that job.
9
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page 7
Exhibit 6. 2011 and 2017 Employment Level by Industry (000s)
(change in employment )
25,000
+2,977
20,000
5,000
+898
+2,403
15,000
10,000
+1,801
+3,447
+102
+978
+822
+387
+578
+288
+3
0
2011 Employment Level
+241
2017 Employment Level
Source: BLS Current Employment Statistics & Moody's Analytics
The industry sectors with the largest projected net employment increases are professional and
business services and health services. These sectors are also the largest projected job gainers in
terms of growth rates. In contrast, employment gains in manufacturing, mining, wholesale and
retail trade, and transportation and utilities will be much more modest.
Using these industry forecasts, we compute employment in 2011 and 2017 by occupation and
change in employment, illustrated in exhibit 7. Projected net employment over this period and
growth rates are also shown in Exhibit 8. The largest number of net jobs gained by occupation
over the next 5 years is in the office and administrative support occupation with over 2.6
million net jobs expected to be added.10 This is followed by sales occupations adding over 1.2
million jobs.
The projected growth rate across occupations varies considerably. The occupations with the
highest growth rates are education, personal care services, and community and social services,
all growing at over 16 percent. It is worth noting that occupations with the greatest projected
net employment gains or the highest growth rates do not necessarily pay the highest wages.
Exhibit 8 also shows the median hourly wage by occupation for 2010 (the most recent data
available). The occupation with the greatest net increase in jobs (office and administrative
support) pays on average $14.77 per hour, which is lower than the median hourly wage in 2010
10
We assume here that the occupational distribution within industries remains the same in 2017 as in 2011. This is
a reasonable assumption over a 5 year period. However, it is possible that coming out of a major recession the
nature of how goods and services are produced within industries may shift and as such the skill and occupation mix
will also shift. Any such shift that had already happened by 2011 is captured.
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page 8
of $16.27. High growth in lower paying jobs is in line with research showing that in the early
part of the recovery low-paying jobs have dominated employment growth. 11
Exhibit 7. 2011 and 2017 Employment Level by Major Occupation
(employment change 000s)
Office & Administrative Support
Sales & Related
Food Prep. & Serving Related
Transp. & Material Moving
Install., Maintenance, & Repair
Business & Financial Operations
Education, Training, & Library
Construction & Extraction
Management
Personal Care & Service
Computer & Mathematical
Building & Grounds & Maint.
Production
Arts/Design/Ent./Sports, & Media
Protective Service
Healthcare Practitioners & Tech.
Architecture and Engineering
Community & Social Service
Healthcare Support
Legal
Life, Physical, & Social Science
Farming, Fishing, & Forestry
+2,656
+1,231
+325
+891
+1,166
+929
+1,199
+989
+816
+853
+663
+445
+510
+571
+424
+339
+248
+236
+160
+128
+134
+10
0
5,000
10,000
2011 Employment Level
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2017 Employment Level
Source: BLS Current Employment Statistics & Moody's Analytics
Using our measures of how skill requirements vary across industry and occupation categories
we can translate these forecasts into employment gains for jobs of different skill levels.
11
“The Good Jobs Deficit: Low-Paying Jobs & Falling Wages Dominate Growth Since 2010” National Employment
Law Project, July 2011. http://www.nelp.org/page/-/Final%20occupations%20report%207-25-11.pdf?nocdn=1
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page 9
Exhibit 8. Net Employment Change and Growth by Major Occupation,
2007-2017
Occupation
Office and Administrative Support
Sales and Related
Food Preparation and Serving Related
Education, Training, and Library
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
Construction and Extraction
Business and Financial Operations
Transportation and Material Moving
Personal Care and Service
Management
Computer and Mathematical
Arts, Design, Ent., Sports, and Media
Production
Building & Grounds & Maintenance
Protective Service
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical
Architecture and Engineering
Community and Social Service
Healthcare Support
Life, Physical, and Social Science
Legal
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry
Net
Employment
Change
+2,656,067
+1,230,547
+325,428
+1,199,017
+1,166,305
+988,911
+929,403
+891,172
+852,987
+815,891
+662,557
+571,494
+510,229
+445,287
+424,022
+338,871
+248,103
+235,745
+160,271
+133,878
+128,260
+10,181
Source: BLS Current Employment Survey and Moody's Analytics
Growth
Rate
11.3%
7.8%
3.2%
16.3%
14.5%
14.6%
12.4%
9.4%
16.1%
12.1%
12.9%
15.1%
11.4%
9.8%
13.7%
11.7%
10.7%
17.0%
12.5%
12.2%
10.6%
8.1%
Median Hourly
Wage
$14.77
$11.72
$9.02
$21.97
$19.29
$18.79
$29.17
$13.66
$9.92
$43.96
$35.44
$20.61
$14.58
$10.81
$17.63
$28.12
$33.95
$18.89
$11.90
$28.14
$35.86
$9.44
Net Employment Increase by Skill Levels
Exhibits 9 to 13 show where net employment growth in 2012 is forecast by selected industry
sectors for different skill level requirements. 12 Exhibit 9 shows that the largest net gains in
employment for jobs that require less than a high school education will be in the leisure and
hospitality sector. The second largest growth will be in the professional and business services
sector.
12
Appendix exhibit A.4 presents net employment change numbers by industry and skill level.
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page 10
Exhibit 9. Net Employment Growth for Less than High School Degree, 2011-2017
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
Total Growth=1,759,000
647,000
600,000
400,000
245,000
200,000
15,000
0
316,000
186,000
29,000
14,000
13,000
400
91,000
63,000
25,000
115,000
Exhibit 10. Net Employment Growth for High School Degrees, 2011-2017
1,200,000
1,000,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
765,000
693,000
800,000
743,000
398,000
Total Growth=3,936,000
374,000
48,000
192,000
62,000
38,000
189,000
1,000
334,000
99,000
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page 11
Exhibit 11. Net Employment Growth for Some College, 2011-2017
1,200,000
1,062,000
915,000
1,000,000
800,000
685,000
600,000
400,000
Total Growth=4,374,000
488,000
263,000
239,000
200,000
92,000
84,000
26,000
0
285,000
159,000
75,000
1,000
Exhibit 12. Net Employment Growth for College Degrees, 2011-2017
1,200,000
975,000
1,000,000
Total Growth=3,200,000
800,000
658,000
600,000
479,000
400,000
200,000
0
261,000
81,000
119,000
258,000
93,000
17,000
300
87,000
35,000
137,000
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page 12
Exhibit 13. Net Employment Growth for Advanced Degrees, 2011-2017
1,200,000
1,000,000
Total Growth=1,653,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
497,000
378,000
15,000
120,000
77,000
27,000
47,000
7,000
200
52,000
398,000
8,000
27,000
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page 13
Exhibit 10 shows that employment growth is spread across several industries for jobs requiring
just a high school education. Professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and
health services have the largest net gains. Wholesale and retail trade, as well as the recovering
construction and government sectors, will also show gains. The net employment growth for
those jobs requiring some college education (exhibit 11) is also spread across these same
industries, although health services industry has the largest net employment gains.
For jobs that require a college or advanced degree (exhibits 12 and 13), 2017 net employment
growth is concentrated in the professional and business services sector. We also see significant
net gains in the health services sector and government sector.
If we aggregate across all sectors by skill requirement, we see net employment gains for every
educational level (exhibit 14).
Exhibit 14. 2011-2017 Net Change in Employment,
by Education Requirement
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
11.4%
10.8%
11.3%
11.5%
9.6%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Less Than High High School Degree
School Degree
Some College
College Degree
Advanced Degree
Source: BLS Current Employment Statistics, BLS Current Population Survey, and Moody's Analytics
Employment growth rates are slightly higher for those with less than a high school degree than
other groups, 11.4 percent. 13 It is also notable that those with exactly a high school degree will
experience the slowest rate of job growth over the next five years at 9.6 percent. This is in part
attributable to the high concentration of jobs requiring exactly a high school degree in the
13
Other research shows an increasing demand over time for jobs with higher education requirements. See
Carnevale, A., N. Smith, and J. Strohl, 2010, “Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements
Through 2018,” Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. Although the methods we use differ from
this study, our projections of total employment requiring less than high school or high school in 2017 are not far
different from their projection for 2018. The trends historically over a longer period than from 2011 to 2017 show
bigger gains for higher education levels.
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page 14
manufacturing, mining, and transportation and utilities sectors which are all projected to grow
slowly.
The slightly higher rate of growth among jobs requiring less than a high school degree over the
next five years needs to be placed in the context of the large decline in jobs requiring less than
a high school degree during the recession. Exhibit 15 shows employment change by skill
requirement starting in 2007 and projected through 2017. While employment is growing across
all educational requirement categories, it is clear that jobs requiring less education have the
most ground to make up. Jobs requiring high school or less than high school education are
not projected to return to their 2007 level until 2014.
Exhibit 15. Employment Change by Education Requirement
1.15
1.1
Advanced Degree
1.05
College Degree
1
Some College
0.95
Less than High School
Degree
0.9
0.85
2007
High School Degree
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: BLS Current Employment Statistics, BLS Current Population Survey, and Moody's Analytics
Unemployment through the Recovery: Who is Left Behind?
The net increase in jobs requiring different skill levels is only one side of the economic recovery story.
The other side is the size of the labor pool by skill level that is searching for jobs. We typically use the
unemployment rate as an indicator of the size of this labor pool. The unemployment rate tells us the
number of individuals actively searching for work as a percentage of the labor force. The labor force is
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page 15
the total number of employed and unemployed workers. In February 2012, there were 12.9 million
unemployed workers in the U.S.; almost 7 million of these workers had a high school degree or less.
One of the stark realities of the recovery is that there are still many more people seeking jobs than there
are job openings. There were 3.5 million job openings in January 2012 14 which means 3.7 unemployed
people for every job opening. While even in a healthy economy there are more job seekers than
openings, this is still a high number, especially this far into a recovery. For comparison, during the 2001
recession the highest value of this ratio was 2.8 job seekers per job opening.
Moreover, the official unemployment data only includes those who are actively searching for work.
Many others have given up actively searching, but would still take a job if one was offered – the socalled “marginally attached” or “discouraged” workers. 15 In February 2012, in addition to the
unemployed there were another 2.8 million marginally attached persons. If marginally attached
individuals were counted as unemployed, the unemployment rate for February 2012 would increase
from 8.3 to 9.8 percent.
In addition to the unemployed and those who have stopped searching for work, over time there will be
other additions to the pool of potential workers. Natural growth in the labor force occurs as the
population grows and young people enter the labor market seeking work. In the next five years after
such a deep recession, there will also be labor market entry from “pent up supply” — people who
refrained from entering during the recession because unemployment was so high. This includes young
people who went on for more schooling than they might have otherwise or parents with older children
who chose not to join or re-join the labor market when they would have in normal economic times.
These delayed labor market entrants will also be competing for work as the recovery continues. 16
In some ways, low-skill workers are at a disadvantage in this recovery. Workers with lower education
have higher unemployment rates than more educated workers. 17 In February 2012, the unemployment
rate for individuals age 18 and over with less than a high school degree was 17.6 percent. It was 10.9
percent for those with just a high school degree and 5.0 percent for those with a college degree.
Exhibit 16 shows that the low skilled are disproportionately represented among the unemployed relative
to the employed. In 2012, only 8 percent of the employed have less than a high school degree compared
to 17 percent of the unemployed. Among discouraged workers, the proportion with lower education
14
US Department of Labor, Job Openings and Labor Turnover, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf.
The US Department of Labor officially defines someone as “marginally attached to the labor market” if they are
not working, searched for work in the last year but are not in the last week, and are willing to take a job if offered.
“Discouraged workers” are a subset of the marginally attached who say the reason they are no longer searching is
because they do not believe there is a job available in their line of work or they lack the necessary schooling or
training, or they cannot find work due to discrimination. US Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2009 “How the Government
Measures Unemployment.”
16
Predicting labor supply in the recovery is difficult because it is made up of “natural” labor force population
growth as well as this “pent-up” supply. In addition, other factors that are difficult to predict include patterns of
immigration in response to the recovery and changes in retirement patterns as some unemployed older workers
leave the labor force for early retirement while others with jobs work longer because of reductions in the value of
their retirement assets.
17
Unemployment rates for less skilled workers are almost always higher than for more skilled workers, even in a
robust economy.
15
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page 16
levels is even higher, with 22 percent without a high school degree and 38 percent with exactly a high
school degree.
Exhibit 16. Education Distribution of Employed and
Unemployed
100%
90%
80%
20.5%
37.1%
70%
28.5%
60%
50%
Some College
28.1%
38.3%
34.4%
30%
High School
Less than High School
27.2%
10%
0%
18.7%
College or More
40%
20%
20.9%
7.7%
Employed
16.6%
Unemployed
22.1%
Discouraged
Source: Author's calculations from February 2012 CPS
Exhibit 17 shows the absolute size of the unemployed population by skill level. There are more than 2.3
million unemployed with less than a high school degree and 4. 6 million who have a high school degree.
A closer examination of the characteristics of the unemployed, especially among those with low skill
levels, reveals who is likely to face the greatest challenges in finding employment.
Exhibit 18 shows how the unemployment rate varies across gender, race, and age over the whole
population and within skill levels. Generally, these patterns are similar to before the recession, although
the specific rates are higher. 18
In early 2012, the unemployment rate for men is higher than for women, in line with characterizations
of the recession as hitting men harder than women. However, this varies across skill level. Female
workers with less than a high school degree have a higher unemployment rate than men at the same
education level; similarly among o those with some college, women have a higher unemployment rate
than men.
18
Appendix exhibit A.5 presents unemployment rates for each skill level by age within race/ethnicity group.
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page 17
Exhibit 17. Size of Unemployed Population by Skill Level
5,000,000
4,658,000
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,676,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,369,000
2,000,000
1,662,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
586,000
500,000
0
Less than High
High School
Some College
School
Source: Author's calculations from February 2012, CPS.
Bachelor's Degree Advanced Degree
The unemployment rate for Hispanic and for black workers is substantially higher than the overall rate,
14.0 and 11.2 compared with 8.5 percent. 19 This pattern encompasses all education categories for black
workers and for most categories (except some college and advanced degree) for Hispanic workers.
Unemployment rates for low-skill workers of color are exceptionally high. For example, unemployment
among black workers with less than a high school degree is 29.5 percent.
Young workers (ages 18 to 25) are more likely to be unemployed than older workers across all skill
levels, with an unemployment rate of 15.2 percent. One quarter of the unemployed are ages 18 to 25.
Younger workers who are also low-skilled fare far worse; 29 percent of young workers without a high
school degree are unemployed and 21 percent of those with a high school degree. These workers likely
have less work experience, which creates more difficulty competing for jobs.
19
The official unemployment rate for February was 8.3 percent. This number is different because we are
calculating from the same data for workers age 18 and older (rather than 16 and older) and we are not seasonally
adjusting. Published statistics are not available for all the characteristics by education level that we present.
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page 18
Exhibit 18. Unemployment Rates by Gender, Race, Age, and Skill Level, 2012
Unemployment
Rate
Unemployed
(000s)
Gender
Male
Female
Race
White, NonHispanic
Black, NonHispanic
Hispanic
Other
Age
18-25
26-35
36-45
46-55
56-65
All
Less than
High
School
High
School
Some
College
Bachelor's
Degree
Advanced
Degree
8.5%
17.6%
10.9%
8.0%
5.0%
3.4%
12,954
2,369
4,659
3,677
1,663
587
9.0%
7.9%
16.4%
18.2%
10.4%
9.5%
7.6%
8.4%
5.5%
4.6%
3.1%
3.4%
7.0%
17.0%
9.3%
7.2%
4.5%
3.0%
14.0%
29.5%
17.7%
11.3%
7.3%
6.7%
11.2%
8.1%
16.1%
13.5%
11.6%
10.5%
7.5%
11.4%
7.5%
5.5%
3.4%
3.6%
15.2%
8.9%
7.2%
7.0%
6.2%
29.2%
18.2%
14.7%
15.0%
10.1%
21.0%
12.2%
9.4%
8.4%
6.6%
9.9%
9.5%
7.1%
6.4%
6.8%
7.8%
4.8%
4.2%
4.5%
5.5%
4.3%
2.9%
2.7%
3.7%
3.6%
Source: Author's calculations from the February 2012 CPS.
There are other personal barriers to re-employment for some unemployed workers including language
fluency, disability, and having a criminal record. For example, it is estimated that 65 million Americans
have a criminal record which can limit their access to jobs. 20 Not all of these barriers are measured in
national data. Exhibit 19 provides information on the prevalence of several barriers that are available,
including lack of citizenship, not speaking English as your primary language, health problems, and debt.
It presents the prevalence of these barriers among all unemployed workers and by skill level. It also
shows the prevalence among all employed workers for context.
Overall, unemployed are more likely than employed workers to lack citizenship, to speak a primary
language other than English, and to have a work-limiting physical or mental health condition. These
factors could be part of the reason some workers are unemployed. Among those unemployed with less
than a high-school degree, the prevalence of these potential barriers is even higher than all
20
National Employment Law Project. 2011. “The Case for Reforming Criminal Background Checks for Employment”
http://www.nelp.org/page/-/SCLP/2011/65_Million_Need_Not_Apply.pdf?nocdn=1
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page 19
unemployed. For example, the unemployed with less than a high school degree are almost twice as
likely as all unemployed to speak a primary language other than English (45% vs. 23%). The prevalence
of all three of these barriers declines as skill level increases. These results suggest that a high
percentage of unemployed, less-skilled workers face disadvantages in the labor market when seeking
work over and beyond the challenges posed by job availability at their respective skill levels.
Exhibit 19. Potential Barriers to Re-Employment Among Unemployed, by Skill
Level
High
School
Some
College
Bachelor's
Degree
Advanced
Degree
Unemployed
Less than
High
School
Unemployed
Unemployed
Unemployed
Unemployed
Unemployed
8.5%
17.6%
10.9%
8.0%
5.0%
3.4%
139,566
12,954
2,369
4,659
3,677
1,663
587
8.7%
11.0%
27.9%
8.2%
5.0%
7.0%
9.5%
Primary Language
other than English
17.09%
22.95%
44.93%
20.72%
16.25%
16.69%
8.71%
Work limiting
physical or mental
condition
5.05%
9.35%
11.27%
9.68%
9.77%
5.57%
4.00%
Median level of
non-housing debt
($)
10,000
6,000
1,000
5,000
9,700
12,000
13,000
All
Employed
Unemployment
Rate
(Number in 000s)
Not U.S. Citizen
Source: Employment, unemployment and citizenship are from the February 2012 CPS. Primary language other than English,
work limiting physical or mental condition, and median level of non-housing debt are from the 2008 Survey of Income and
Program Participation (SIPP), representing the second half of 2010. The median debt includes those reporting 0 debt.
Conclusions
The recovery is continuing, but at a slow pace with relatively modest employment growth projected
over the next five years and unemployment forecast to remain well above 7 percent for the next several
years. Sectors such as professional and business services, health services and leisure and hospitality are
forecast to grow over the next five years while the depressed manufacturing and government sectors
are forecast to gain jobs very slowly, remaining well below their pre-recession levels. Using our national
industry forecast, we estimate employment growth by the required skill levels of jobs, occupations, and
industry sectors.
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page 20
Within the overall low national employment growth forecast, predicted employment growth rates for
2012 through 2017 are slightly higher for jobs requiring the lowest and highest level of educational
attainment and lowest for those with exactly a high school degree. Across given skill level requirements,
the industries with the highest net employment gains vary. This stems from the very different
distributions of specific occupations and jobs within industries. The largest number of jobs added that
require less than a high school degree are in the leisure and hospitality industries. For those requiring
just a high school degree, net employment gains are highest across leisure and hospitality, professional
and business services, and health services. Jobs requiring higher education levels are increasing, on net,
the most in health services and professional and business services.
Putting net employment gains in perspective, the size of the unemployed population is still many times
the number of job openings in the economy. Low-skill workers are disproportionately represented
among the unemployed. In addition, the low-skill unemployed are more likely to have personal
characteristics and circumstances that can make finding work difficult. The economy has not yet seen
the job growth necessary to get us back to employment levels before the recession, much less meeting
the job needs of a growing labor force. More job creation is needed across industry sectors and all skill
levels to return to a truly healthy economy.
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page 21
LABOR MARKET AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS:
A NATIONAL PICTURE OF SHORT-TERM EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SKILL
APPENDIX
This appendix describes the methods used for the analysis in the main report. We start with a
description of data we use. The appendix also provides additional detailed result tables that are referred
to in the main text.
Data
We use data from several different sources in this study. They are described below.
Current Employment Statistics (CES). The CES is a monthly survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics of approximately 140,000 establishments representing payroll employment in non-farm
sectors. Besides the farm sector, the CES also excludes the self-employed, proprietors, unpaid, and
domestic workers. The CES is considered the most reliable data source for current employment figures
by industry sector and geographic region.
Moody’s Analytics. Historical data from the CES as well as projections from 2012 and 2017 are provided
by Moody’s Analytics Inc., a private forecasting firm. We use this data to measure employment by
industry from 2007 through 2011 and projections from 2012 through 2017.
Current Population Survey (CPS). The CPS is a monthly survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics of approximately 60,000 households representing the civilian non-institutionalized population.
The CPS is the only data source that can provide current information on employment by both industry
and occupation, as well as information on educational attainment levels. While the CES is generally
considered the most reliable source for industry employment counts, the CPS provides accurate
information on the employment share of an industry that is in a particular occupation or education
category.
We use the CPS to calculate the occupation employment share of each industry sector and the
distribution of educational attainment within each industry-occupation cell. Applying the CPS shares to
the CES employment counts allows us to estimate the number of workers by educational attainment
category.
For the ten major occupation categories, the CPS uses the 2010 Census occupation classification system
which is derived from the Standard Occupational Classification system. We apply the same NAICS
industry sectors as used in the CES to make the two samples compatible. For educational attainment,
we construct five categories: less than high school graduate, high school graduate, some college, college
graduate, advanced degree.
Our CPS sample is restricted to wage and salary earners age 16 and over. We exclude the selfemployed and farm workers to conform to the CES sample.
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page A1
Occupational Employment Statistics (OES). The OES produces annual estimates of employment and
wages by occupation and industry. We use the 2010 OES (latest available) to measure the occupational
employment distribution within each of our industry sectors. The twenty-two occupational groups we
use come from the 2010 Standard Occupational Classification system.
Methodology1
Establishing 2011 Baseline Employment by Industry and Occupation (OES)
We measure average monthly industry employment each quarter of the CES data. Appendix table A.1
presents employment levels by industry for the last quarter of 2007, 2009, and 2011. These data are the
basis of Exhibit 2 in the report. We apply the matrix of the 2010 OES occupational employment
distribution within each industry to the 2011 industry employment numbers to generate 2011 baseline
employment by occupation estimates. For example, the CES indicates that there are 11.8 million
workers in the manufacturing sector and the OES indicates that 6% of manufacturing workers are
employed in management occupations. This gives approximately 708,000 workers in management
occupations in the manufacturing industry. Aggregating the number of managers across all industries
gives estimates of total employment by occupation found in Exhibit 3 in the report.
Establishing 2011 Baseline Employment by Industry and Occupation (CPS)
We repeat the above technique to estimate an alternative set of industry-occupation employment
figures using the occupational employment distribution matrix from the 2011 CPS. Although the CPS
occupation data is less detailed and reliable than the OES, we are using the CPS because it provides
needed information on skill requirements. The CPS industry-occupation matrix is found in exhibit A.2.
Measuring Skill Requirements (CPS)
We use the 2007 full calendar year of CPS to measure the distribution of educational attainment within
each industry-occupation cell. While education is only one proxy for skill, it is the only such measure
available in the CPS. We use the 2007 pre-recession year because we believe that during the Great
Recession and its aftermath, the overall lack of jobs induced many individuals with higher levels of
educational attainment to fill jobs for which they may be overqualified. To get a better sense of the
underlying job requirements of a particular industry-occupation, the 2007 educational levels are likely
more accurate than 2011 levels. Appendix exhibit A.3 contains five industry-occupation matrices, one
for each level of educational attainment. For example, in the manufacturing industry and production
1
Our national employment projection methodology differs from the often-cited BLS Employment Projections in
several ways. First, we are creating an intermediate term forecast that does not assume full employment and
utilization across industries. Second, we attempt to adjust for the fact that educational attainment within an
industry-occupation cell during the most recent years of high unemployment may reflect workers taking jobs for
which they are overqualified. Our methods are also distinct from those used by Center on Education and the
Workforce--Carnevale et al. (2010) who argue that the BLS understates education requirement growth because
their methods ignore education upgrading that occurs within detailed occupations. We do not assume educational
requirement upgrades in education within occupation between 2007 and 2017. In practice, however, Carnevale et
al. arrive at predictions for the educational distribution for 2018 that are similar to our projection numbers for
2017.
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page A2
occupation, 20% of the jobs require less than a high school degree while 50% require a high school
degree.
Incorporating Industry Forecasts for 2017
We incorporate the employment by industry forecasts from Moody’s Analytics for 2012 through 2017
and compare to the 2011 baseline. Combining the industry forecasts with the 2007 and 2011 CPS
matrices, we estimate employment by educational attainment. We then calculate the net employment
change between 2011 and 2017 by industry and level of education as shown in exhibit A.4.
Unemployment Statistics by Skill Level
The report also presents information on the unemployed by skill level. As a complement to these data,
Appendix exhibit A.5 presents unemployment rates for each skill level by age group within race/ethnicity
group. These data are from the CPS 2012.
State Forecasts
The report focuses on national data. The same techniques can be used to create estimates for states.
Table A.6 provides estimates of employment by education skill-level for 2007, 2011, and projections for
2017 for 25 selected states using the same methodology as above except state employment estimates.
The numbers in the final column, percent change from 2011 to 2017correspond to the national numbers
in Exhibit 14 in the report.
Exhibit A.1 Change in Employment by Industry between 2007 and 2011, Quarter 4
Industry
Construction
Educational Services
Financial Activities
Health Services
Information
Leisure and Hospitality
Manufacturing
Mining
Other Services
Prof. & Business Services
Total Government
Transportation & Utilities
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Total Nonfarm
2007 Q4
Employment
2009 Q4
Employment
2011 Q4
Change in
Change in
Employment Employment, Employment
2007-2009
2007-2011
7,526,000
2,971,167
8,238,400
15,544,934
3,025,333
13,527,900
13,751,667
734,134
5,505,000
18,023,900
22,335,667
5,107,533
21,592,899
137,884,534
5,686,000
3,097,100
7,686,200
16,218,600
2,753,333
12,973,400
11,497,333
662,000
5,325,000
16,440,900
22,513,000
4,731,433
19,862,333
129,446,632
5,528,333
3,271,767
7,689,033
16,778,567
2,645,000
13,431,300
11,788,333
815,166
5,352,333
17,532,034
22,007,334
4,873,100
20,272,400
131,984,700
-1,840,000
125,933
-552,200
673,666
-272,000
-554,500
-2,254,334
-72,134
-180,000
-1,583,000
177,333
-376,100
-1,730,566
-8,437,902
-1,997,667
+300,600
-549,367
+1,233,633
-380,333
-96,600
-1,963,334
+81,032
-152,667
-491,866
-328,333
-234,433
-1,320,499
-5,899,834
Source: BLS Current Employment Statistics
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page A3
Exhibit A.2 2011 Occupation-Industry Employment Matrix
Occupation
Management,
Business, &
Finance
Professional
and Related
Construction
741,758
144,444
45,698
92,257
Educational Services
468,258
2,045,183
307,249
Industry
Services
Farming
Construction
& Extraction
Installation
&
Maintenance
Production
Transportation
349,823
3,889
3,532,966
335,926
98,354
183,218
5,528,333
31,279
315,306
2,353
16,044
36,367
10,663
39,064
3,271,767
Sales
Office &
Admin
Industry
Total
Financial Activities
2,994,516
577,651
337,302
1,346,253
2,137,126
1,803
40,532
122,868
44,231
86,751
7,689,033
Health Services
1,437,880
7,484,342
4,998,950
54,380
2,401,686
3,167
38,277
96,311
136,602
126,972
16,778,567
528,272
796,789
84,175
343,621
449,331
2,436
20,207
306,858
64,416
48,895
2,645,000
Leisure and Hospitality
1,514,233
511,822
9,064,646
1,056,941
647,545
2,257
43,142
119,024
133,410
338,280
13,431,300
Manufacturing
1,835,828
1,626,654
196,528
513,933
1,090,437
45,304
242,225
579,540
4,718,813
939,071
11,788,333
Mining
100,463
86,935
7,088
15,134
62,529
5,725
331,256
61,179
54,095
90,763
815,166
Other Services
Professional and Business
Services
504,552
836,924
1,818,589
219,204
529,724
5,027
24,848
824,059
323,916
265,490
5,352,333
3,760,069
5,416,898
3,123,519
722,320
2,848,194
18,222
179,731
344,454
475,352
643,274
17,532,034
Total Government
2,554,178
9,632,114
4,385,236
207,034
3,238,664
30,025
487,575
441,560
299,756
731,191
22,007,334
Transportation and Utilities
508,758
229,034
125,534
116,715
810,380
8,031
104,868
395,980
195,849
2,377,949
4,873,100
Wholesale and Retail Trade
1,306,511
1,024,071
836,349
9,781,368
3,513,803
71,153
124,786
846,073
710,373
2,057,913
20,272,400
Information
Source: Authors' calculations using BLS Current Employment Statistics and Current Population Survey
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page A4
Exhibit A.3 2007 Occupation-Industry Education Requirement
Less than High School
Industry
Construction
Educational Services
Financial Activities
Health Services
Information
Leisure and Hospitality
Manufacturing
Mining
Other Services
Prof. & Business Services
Total Government
Transportation and Utilities
Wholesale and Retail Trade
HS Degree
Construction
Educational Services
Financial Activities
Health Services
Information
Leisure and Hospitality
Manufacturing
Mining
Other Services
Prof. & Business Services
Total Government
Transportation and Utilities
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Occupation
Management,
Business, &
Finance
0.05
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.06
0.01
0.04
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.03
Professional
and Related
0.04
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.09
0.01
0.08
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.03
0.03
Management,
Business, &
Finance
0.27
0.06
0.15
0.11
0.12
0.29
0.15
0.20
0.15
0.08
0.11
0.21
0.20
Professional
and Related
0.15
0.05
0.10
0.08
0.11
0.17
0.10
0.16
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.14
0.18
Services
0.22
0.17
0.26
0.15
0.37
0.31
0.24
0.32
0.22
0.32
0.09
0.10
0.22
Services
0.44
0.38
0.40
0.41
0.21
0.33
0.46
0.40
0.40
0.38
0.35
0.34
0.43
Sales
0.12
0.09
0.02
0.06
0.08
0.39
0.04
0.00
0.14
0.05
0.09
0.05
0.11
Office &
Admin
0.08
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.14
0.06
0.09
0.08
0.05
0.02
0.06
0.13
Sales
0.21
0.27
0.19
0.27
0.23
0.32
0.21
0.05
0.36
0.23
0.28
0.29
0.35
Office &
Admin
0.35
0.23
0.36
0.35
0.30
0.32
0.41
0.34
0.34
0.33
0.33
0.37
0.43
Farming
0.46
0.00
0.26
0.58
0.00
0.11
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.34
0.12
0.21
0.42
Construction &
Extraction
0.32
0.10
0.22
0.13
0.18
0.12
0.20
0.18
0.20
0.25
0.08
0.09
0.23
Installation
&
Maintenance
0.13
0.08
0.18
0.06
0.05
0.22
0.10
0.14
0.18
0.09
0.06
0.10
0.11
Production
0.25
0.19
0.16
0.25
0.10
0.35
0.20
0.15
0.35
0.20
0.12
0.08
0.18
Transportation
0.25
0.18
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.24
0.23
0.11
0.28
0.24
0.10
0.15
0.24
Industry
Total
0.25
0.04
0.04
0.06
0.05
0.27
0.13
0.13
0.16
0.09
0.04
0.10
0.13
Farming
0.51
0.00
0.00
0.42
0.00
0.14
0.38
0.00
0.34
0.20
0.31
0.55
0.31
Construction &
Extraction
0.44
0.50
0.47
0.41
0.32
0.38
0.43
0.51
0.41
0.33
0.46
0.41
0.53
Installation
&
Maintenance
0.44
0.29
0.36
0.37
0.37
0.42
0.44
0.43
0.45
0.37
0.46
0.45
0.45
Production
0.42
0.27
0.38
0.43
0.45
0.35
0.50
0.38
0.40
0.41
0.40
0.45
0.47
Transportation
0.50
0.46
0.40
0.48
0.40
0.35
0.52
0.61
0.38
0.50
0.51
0.49
0.48
Industry
Total
0.41
0.12
0.23
0.23
0.22
0.32
0.38
0.41
0.33
0.22
0.21
0.41
0.37
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page A5
Exhibit A.3 2007 Occupation-Industry Education Requirement (continued)
Some College
Construction
Educational Services
Financial Activities
Health Services
Information
Leisure and Hospitality
Manufacturing
Mining
Other Services
Prof. & Business Services
Total Government
Transportation and Utilities
Wholesale and Retail Trade
College Degree
Construction
Educational Services
Financial Activities
Health Services
Information
Leisure and Hospitality
Manufacturing
Mining
Other Services
Prof. & Business Services
Total Government
Transportation and Utilities
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Management,
Business, &
Finance
0.32
0.17
0.25
0.26
0.23
0.33
0.24
0.29
0.26
0.21
0.22
0.26
0.30
Professional
and Related
0.25
0.15
0.26
0.35
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.20
0.20
0.22
0.16
0.25
0.31
Management,
Business, &
Finance
0.30
0.37
0.44
0.38
0.46
0.26
0.40
0.28
0.38
0.48
0.35
0.40
0.38
Professional
and Related
0.45
0.37
0.42
0.33
0.47
0.35
0.41
0.33
0.31
0.40
0.37
0.41
0.34
Services
0.19
0.32
0.23
0.35
0.31
0.28
0.24
0.26
0.29
0.23
0.38
0.32
0.27
Services
0.09
0.12
0.09
0.08
0.09
0.07
0.05
0.02
0.07
0.07
0.15
0.21
0.07
Sales
0.33
0.27
0.33
0.31
0.33
0.20
0.27
0.40
0.28
0.32
0.40
0.34
0.34
Office &
Admin
0.44
0.50
0.43
0.45
0.44
0.39
0.37
0.40
0.39
0.42
0.44
0.42
0.33
Sales
0.30
0.21
0.37
0.26
0.30
0.07
0.41
0.56
0.18
0.34
0.17
0.28
0.17
Office &
Admin
0.11
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.18
0.13
0.14
0.13
0.16
0.18
0.17
0.13
0.10
Farming
0.03
1.00
0.74
0.00
0.00
0.37
0.18
0.00
0.36
0.26
0.25
0.24
0.18
Construction &
Extraction
0.20
0.32
0.14
0.32
0.36
0.32
0.32
0.26
0.32
0.28
0.34
0.37
0.15
Installation
&
Maintenance
0.37
0.37
0.33
0.43
0.44
0.25
0.37
0.35
0.29
0.39
0.39
0.38
0.37
Production
0.27
0.24
0.31
0.24
0.21
0.16
0.23
0.32
0.17
0.29
0.33
0.37
0.28
Transportation
0.23
0.23
0.24
0.21
0.29
0.31
0.20
0.23
0.23
0.21
0.30
0.26
0.23
Industry
Total
0.24
0.22
0.32
0.36
0.32
0.29
0.26
0.28
0.28
0.27
0.27
0.31
0.32
Farming
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.38
0.08
0.00
0.31
0.21
0.23
0.00
0.07
Construction &
Extraction
0.04
0.08
0.14
0.07
0.14
0.13
0.04
0.04
0.08
0.10
0.09
0.10
0.06
Installation
&
Maintenance
0.05
0.17
0.09
0.10
0.12
0.09
0.07
0.08
0.06
0.12
0.09
0.07
0.06
Production
0.04
0.15
0.15
0.05
0.19
0.11
0.05
0.09
0.06
0.10
0.11
0.09
0.06
Transportation
0.02
0.11
0.13
0.09
0.11
0.10
0.04
0.04
0.10
0.04
0.08
0.08
0.04
Industry
Total
0.08
0.31
0.32
0.22
0.32
0.11
0.17
0.12
0.15
0.28
0.27
0.14
0.15
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page A6
Exhibit A.3 2007 Occupation-Industry Education Requirement (continued)
Management,
Business, &
Professional
Finance
and Related
Construction
0.06
0.11
Educational Services
0.39
0.41
Financial Activities
0.14
0.22
Health Services
0.24
0.22
Information
0.17
0.14
Leisure and Hospitality
0.06
0.14
Manufacturing
0.19
0.23
Mining
0.19
0.23
Other Services
0.18
0.37
Prof. & Business Services
0.22
0.29
Total Government
0.31
0.40
Transportation and Utilities
0.12
0.17
Wholesale and Retail Trade
0.10
0.15
Source: Author's calculations using BLS Current Population Survey
Advanced Degree
Services
0.06
0.01
0.03
0.01
0.03
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.03
0.03
0.01
Sales
0.04
0.16
0.09
0.10
0.06
0.01
0.07
0.00
0.04
0.06
0.07
0.04
0.02
Office &
Admin
0.01
0.06
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.01
Farming
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.00
0.03
Construction &
Extraction
0.01
0.00
0.03
0.07
0.00
0.04
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
Installation
&
Maintenance
0.01
0.10
0.05
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.01
0.00
0.02
0.03
0.01
0.00
0.01
Production
0.02
0.15
0.00
0.03
0.05
0.02
0.01
0.06
0.01
0.01
0.04
0.02
0.01
Transportation
0.00
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.01
Industry
Total
0.02
0.31
0.09
0.13
0.09
0.02
0.07
0.06
0.09
0.14
0.22
0.03
0.03
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page A7
Exhibit A.4 Net Employment Change between 2011-2017, by Industry and Education
Projected Net
Employment Change
Construction
Less than High School Degree
High School Degree
Some College
College Degree
Advanced Degree
Educational Services
+245,000
+398,000
+239,000
+81,000
+15,000
Less than High School Degree
High School Degree
Some College
College Degree
Advanced Degree
+15,000
+48,000
+84,000
+119,000
+120,000
Financial Activities
Less than High School Degree
High School Degree
Some College
College Degree
Advanced Degree
Health Services
Less than High School Degree
High School Degree
Some College
College Degree
Advanced Degree
Information
Less than High School Degree
High School Degree
Some College
College Degree
Advanced Degree
Leisure and Hospitality
Less than High School Degree
High School Degree
Some College
College Degree
Advanced Degree
Manufacturing
Less than High School Degree
High School Degree
Some College
College Degree
Advanced Degree
+29,000
+192,000
+263,000
+261,000
+77,000
+186,000
+693,000
+1,062,000
+658,000
+378,000
+14,000
+62,000
+92,000
+93,000
+27,000
+647,000
+765,000
+685,000
+258,000
+47,000
+13,000
+38,000
+26,000
+17,000
+7,000
Projected Net
Employment Change
Mining
Less than High School Degree
High School Degree
Some College
College Degree
Advanced Degree
Other Services
Less than High School Degree
High School Degree
Some College
College Degree
Advanced Degree
Professional and Business
Services
Less than High School Degree
High School Degree
Some College
College Degree
Advanced Degree
Total Government
Less than High School Degree
High School Degree
Some College
College Degree
Advanced Degree
Transportation
Less than High School Degree
High School Degree
Some College
College Degree
Advanced Degree
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Less than High School Degree
High School Degree
Some College
College Degree
Advanced Degree
+400
+1,100
+800
+300
+200
+91,000
+189,000
+159,000
+87,000
+52,000
+316,000
+743,000
+915,000
+975,000
+497,000
+63,000
+374,000
+488,000
+479,000
+398,000
+25,000
+99,000
+75,000
+35,000
+8,000
+115,000
+334,000
+285,000
+137,000
+27,000
Source: Authors' calculations using BLS Current
Employment Statistics, Current Population Survey,
and Moody's Analytics
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page A8
Exhibit A.5. Unemployment Rates by Age, Race/Ethnicity, and Skill Level, 2012
Unemployment Rate
Unemployed (000s)
All
18-25
26-35
36-45
46-55
56-65
Non-Hispanic, White
18-25
26-35
36-45
46-55
56-65
Non-Hispanic, Black
18-25
26-35
36-45
46-55
56-65
Hispanic
18-25
26-35
36-45
46-55
56-65
Other
18-25
26-35
36-45
46-55
56-65
All
Less than
High
School
High
School
Some
College
Bachelor's
Degree
Advanced
Degree
8.5%
12,954
17.6%
2,369
10.9%
4,659
8.0%
3,677
5.0%
1,663
3.4%
587
15.2%
8.9%
7.2%
7.0%
6.2%
29.2%
18.2%
14.7%
15.0%
10.1%
21.0%
12.2%
9.4%
8.4%
6.6%
10.1%
9.3%
7.3%
6.5%
6.8%
7.8%
4.8%
4.2%
4.5%
5.5%
4.3%
2.9%
2.7%
3.7%
3.6%
12.2%
7.4%
5.9%
6.0%
5.6%
24.6%
20.9%
15.9%
13.2%
9.3%
18.3%
10.7%
8.7%
7.7%
6.1%
8.6%
8.4%
6.2%
6.1%
6.6%
6.7%
4.5%
3.4%
3.9%
5.0%
2.7%
2.1%
2.7%
3.3%
3.2%
24.9%
15.9%
11.2%
10.9%
7.1%
43.8%
38.2%
32.8%
18.6%
11.7%
34.3%
19.7%
13.9%
13.6%
5.6%
15.9%
14.8%
8.4%
9.0%
7.1%
9.4%
5.7%
9.1%
6.2%
9.0%
*
7.8%
4.2%
9.0%
6.0%
17.1%
10.3%
9.8%
9.1%
8.9%
29.6%
14.6%
13.2%
15.3%
11.3%
18.6%
11.0%
9.5%
7.3%
10.2%
9.7%
6.4%
9.2%
5.2%
8.3%
11.5%
7.8%
6.0%
7.2%
2.9%
*
5.2%
3.7%
2.0%
*
16.2%
6.9%
5.5%
7.6%
8.0%
30.4%
10.9%
4.6%
16.4%
*
21.7%
10.7%
4.6%
8.6%
8.6%
12.7%
12.6%
11.8%
7.5%
7.8%
9.9%
3.7%
4.7%
5.4%
9.0%
*
2.3%
1.6%
4.7%
7.4%
Source: Author's calculations from the February 2012 CPS.
* indicates sample too small to report results (n<50)
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page A9
Exhibit A.6. State-Level Employment and Projected Employment by Skill-Level for Selected States
US
Alabama
Arizona
California
Colorado
Florida
2007
2011
2017
% Change
2007-2011
% Change
2011-2017
LTHS
15,511,099
14,518,772
16,278,686
-6.40%
12.12%
HS
39,863,899
37,616,424
41,553,323
-5.64%
10.47%
Some College
40,010,113
38,468,085
42,841,285
-3.85%
11.37%
College
28,350,735
27,434,348
30,635,817
-3.23%
11.67%
Advanced
14,148,688
13,947,072
15,600,211
-1.42%
11.85%
LTHS
224,786
203,984
235,197
-9.25%
15.30%
HS
590,372
540,036
609,695
-8.53%
12.90%
Some College
576,835
538,761
613,130
-6.60%
13.80%
College
411,657
388,128
442,913
-5.72%
14.12%
Advanced
207,832
200,155
228,180
-3.69%
14.00%
LTHS
308,909
263,986
320,002
-14.54%
21.22%
HS
768,358
676,424
806,895
-11.96%
19.29%
Some College
772,644
703,581
845,831
-8.94%
20.22%
College
556,277
513,125
619,178
-7.76%
20.67%
Advanced
274,673
261,883
316,840
-4.66%
20.99%
LTHS
1,699,053
1,547,623
1,744,405
-8.91%
12.72%
HS
4,315,344
3,962,545
4,394,492
-8.18%
10.90%
Some College
4,363,173
4,092,686
4,564,222
-6.20%
11.52%
College
3,206,565
3,036,712
3,394,837
-5.30%
11.79%
Advanced
1,595,233
1,543,643
1,721,939
-3.23%
11.55%
LTHS
271,935
253,154
291,050
-6.91%
14.97%
HS
669,730
629,418
710,327
-6.02%
12.85%
Some College
677,077
651,032
740,061
-3.85%
13.68%
College
490,600
475,730
541,854
-3.03%
13.90%
Advanced
239,121
239,306
273,057
0.08%
14.10%
LTHS
938,651
832,017
983,377
-11.36%
18.19%
HS
2,274,799
2,041,072
2,362,936
-10.27%
15.77%
Some College
2,313,504
2,129,915
2,491,891
-7.94%
16.99%
College
1,641,423
1,522,581
1,782,133
-7.24%
17.05%
794,309
757,262
888,326
-4.66%
17.31%
Advanced
Georgia
LTHS
462,165
411,713
498,450
-10.92%
21.07%
HS
1,196,269
1,078,041
1,270,450
-9.88%
17.85%
Some College
1,194,636
1,099,759
1,298,205
-7.94%
18.04%
College
866,221
805,040
950,019
-7.06%
18.01%
Advanced
430,073
409,856
482,542
-4.70%
17.73%
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page A10
Hawaii
Illinois
Iowa
Maine
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
LTHS
76,521
70,550
77,256
-7.80%
9.50%
HS
177,649
165,302
179,835
-6.95%
8.79%
Some College
180,883
172,283
188,504
-4.75%
9.42%
College
126,876
123,326
135,568
-2.80%
9.93%
Advanced
65,560
65,694
72,320
0.20%
10.09%
LTHS
655,539
609,924
663,986
-6.96%
8.86%
HS
1,715,231
1,606,003
1,722,663
-6.37%
7.26%
Some College
1,728,658
1,646,077
1,775,236
-4.78%
7.85%
College
1,260,972
1,207,577
1,304,388
-4.23%
8.02%
Advanced
622,095
611,127
658,293
-1.76%
7.72%
LTHS
167,161
160,261
175,550
-4.13%
9.54%
HS
445,623
430,694
467,206
-3.35%
8.48%
Some College
440,723
430,886
469,606
-2.23%
8.99%
College
314,690
308,090
335,314
-2.10%
8.84%
Advanced
156,537
155,244
168,366
-0.83%
8.45%
LTHS
67,220
63,914
69,968
-4.92%
9.47%
HS
176,158
167,168
180,532
-5.10%
7.99%
Some College
181,297
174,887
191,094
-3.54%
9.27%
College
128,597
124,393
135,962
-3.27%
9.30%
Advanced
66,585
65,064
71,192
-2.28%
9.42%
LTHS
347,108
337,309
366,407
-2.82%
8.63%
HS
902,943
879,599
945,697
-2.59%
7.51%
Some College
953,430
942,799
1,020,923
-1.12%
8.29%
College
716,393
708,752
770,521
-1.07%
8.72%
Advanced
369,909
369,993
401,937
0.02%
8.63%
LTHS
470,195
425,160
464,091
-9.58%
9.16%
HS
1,220,223
1,113,895
1,200,709
-8.71%
7.79%
Some College
1,224,674
1,139,162
1,237,781
-6.98%
8.66%
College
885,233
828,285
902,783
-6.43%
8.99%
Advanced
446,150
424,879
464,165
-4.77%
9.25%
LTHS
299,893
280,808
314,728
-6.36%
12.08%
HS
792,188
750,555
834,604
-5.26%
11.20%
Some College
806,017
779,234
870,922
-3.32%
11.77%
College
582,001
567,359
631,655
-2.52%
11.33%
Advanced
290,416
288,327
320,406
-0.72%
11.13%
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page A11
Missouri
Montana
Nevada
New Hampshire
New York
North Carolina
Ohio
LTHS
311,765
286,613
313,645
-8.07%
9.43%
HS
802,221
747,282
806,754
-6.85%
7.96%
Some College
809,309
770,205
837,066
-4.83%
8.68%
College
582,161
557,331
606,592
-4.27%
8.84%
Advanced
291,216
283,620
309,444
-2.61%
9.11%
LTHS
52,686
49,505
54,411
-6.04%
9.91%
HS
129,536
123,394
134,399
-4.74%
8.92%
Some College
130,345
126,922
139,039
-2.63%
9.55%
College
89,185
87,797
95,998
-1.56%
9.34%
Advanced
45,174
45,509
49,645
0.74%
9.09%
LTHS
192,738
163,427
207,918
-15.21%
27.22%
HS
388,459
329,933
406,224
-15.07%
23.12%
Some College
370,222
324,549
396,819
-12.34%
22.27%
College
235,528
208,398
252,486
-11.52%
21.16%
Advanced
104,105
95,416
114,318
-8.35%
19.81%
LTHS
71,526
69,473
77,790
-2.87%
11.97%
HS
186,138
178,993
197,807
-3.84%
10.51%
Some College
188,161
184,385
205,807
-2.01%
11.62%
College
134,718
132,659
148,694
-1.53%
12.09%
Advanced
67,847
68,115
76,463
0.39%
12.26%
LTHS
875,338
859,930
960,640
-1.76%
11.71%
HS
2,372,677
2,310,323
2,540,557
-2.63%
9.97%
Some College
2,555,055
2,520,275
2,786,790
-1.36%
10.57%
College
1,947,516
1,924,872
2,125,067
-1.16%
10.40%
Advanced
1,024,065
1,030,105
1,138,195
0.59%
10.49%
471,962
427,707
488,069
-9.38%
14.11%
HS
1,206,418
1,100,125
1,238,376
-8.81%
12.57%
Some College
LTHS
1,197,439
1,118,574
1,273,823
-6.59%
13.88%
College
857,827
812,502
927,060
-5.28%
14.10%
Advanced
432,322
417,830
477,959
-3.35%
14.39%
LTHS
597,749
551,563
610,549
-7.73%
10.69%
HS
1,567,636
1,453,565
1,586,129
-7.28%
9.12%
Some College
1,570,052
1,487,103
1,628,481
-5.28%
9.51%
College
1,125,391
1,071,434
1,174,486
-4.79%
9.62%
560,759
544,265
595,278
-2.94%
9.37%
Advanced
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page A12
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Virginia
Washington
Wisconsin
LTHS
629,368
610,777
666,966
-2.95%
9.20%
HS
1,653,075
1,604,677
1,743,346
-2.93%
8.64%
Some College
1,688,046
1,659,325
1,819,762
-1.70%
9.67%
College
1,218,467
1,199,964
1,320,186
-1.52%
10.02%
Advanced
619,177
620,703
684,422
0.25%
10.27%
LTHS
317,212
291,464
325,134
-8.12%
11.55%
HS
824,316
763,279
836,401
-7.40%
9.58%
Some College
811,649
769,078
850,497
-5.24%
10.59%
College
571,504
548,320
608,109
-4.06%
10.90%
Advanced
278,773
276,352
308,585
-0.87%
11.66%
LTHS
414,764
391,458
444,341
-5.62%
13.51%
HS
1,052,472
1,005,163
1,121,900
-4.50%
11.61%
Some College
1,075,800
1,047,882
1,173,334
-2.60%
11.97%
College
804,363
792,026
887,603
-1.53%
12.07%
Advanced
416,685
419,665
467,679
0.72%
11.44%
LTHS
331,066
305,237
348,982
-7.80%
14.33%
HS
848,302
796,730
897,888
-6.08%
12.70%
Some College
852,264
818,910
929,071
-3.91%
13.45%
College
616,322
599,358
681,965
-2.75%
13.78%
Advanced
309,551
307,301
350,703
-0.73%
14.12%
LTHS
323,177
301,394
331,579
-6.74%
10.02%
HS
849,834
797,532
865,041
-6.15%
8.46%
Some College
833,694
796,670
868,805
-4.44%
9.05%
College
589,342
566,095
616,888
-3.94%
8.97%
Advanced
289,508
283,434
309,572
-2.10%
9.22%
A National Picture of Short-Term Employment Growth by Skill Page A13