vii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TITLE
1
PAGE
TITLE PAGE
i
DECLARATION
ii
DEDICATION
iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
iv
ABSTRACT
v
ABSTRAK
vi
TABLE OF CONTENTS
vii
LIST OF FIGURES
viii
LIST OF TABLES
xiii
LIST OF NOMENCLATURE
xvi
LIST OF SYMBOL
xvii
LIST OF APPENDICES
xviii
INTRODUCTION
1
1.1
Research Background
1
1.2
Problem Statement
3
1.3
Study Area
5
1.4
Objectives of Study
6
viii
2
1.5
Scope of Study
7
1.6
Significance of Study
7
LITERATURE REVIEW
8
2.1
8
Introduction
PART A:
SEA LEVEL RISE (SLR)
10
2.2
The Conceptual Understanding of Sea Level Rise
10
2.3
The Impact of Sea Level Rise
12
2.3.1
Ecological Impacts of Sea Level Rise
14
2.3.2
Social and Economic Impacts of Sea
Level Rise
2.3.2
Impact of Sea Level Rise to Malaysia
Coastal System
2.4
16
18
Global Sea Level Rise Scenario
21
2.4.1
The Evolution of Global Sea Level Rise
21
2.4.2
Global Observation
23
2.5
Sea Level Rise :- South Asia Countries Scenario
29
2.6
Sea Level Rise : Malaysia Scenario
34
PART B:
2.7
TREND ANALYSIS
What is Trend Analysis?
36
2.7.1
Trend Analysis Models
38
2.7.2
Advantages and Disadvantages of Trend
Analysis
2.8
36
Case Examples Using Trend Analysis Method
39
40
ix
2.8.1
Water Quality Evaluation And Trend
Analysis In Buyuk Menderes
Basin, Turkey by Hulya Boyacioglu and
Hayal Boyacioglu (2006)
2.8.2
41
Trend Analysis of Sea levels Along
Turkish Coasts by Burkay SeSeogullar ,
Ebru Eris and Ercan Kahya (2007)
2.8.3
41
A Study Of Hydrological Trends And
Variability Of Upper Mazowe
Catchment-Zimbabwe by W.
Chingombe et al (2006)
3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
45
3.1
Introduction
45
3.2
Research Methodology Flowchart
46
3.3
Data Collection
47
3.4
Data Analysis
47
3.4.1
3.4.2
4
43
Statistical Analysis : Non Parametric
(Mann – Kendall Test)
48
Trend Analysis
51
DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
52
4.1
Introduction
52
4.2
Statistical Analysis : Mann – Kendall Test Results
52
4.2.1
Teluk Ewa, Langkawi, Kedah
53
4.2.2
Penang
54
4.2.3
Lumut, Perak
55
x
4.2.4
Port Klang, Selangor
56
4.2.5
Tanjung Keling, Melaka
57
4.2.6
Kukup, Johor
58
4.2.7
Summary of the Mann – Kendall Test
Results
4.3
4.4
4.5
59
Trend Analysis Results
4.3.1
Teluk Ewa, Langkawi, Kedah
60
4.3.2
Penang
61
4.3.3
Lumut, Perak
62
4.3.4
Port Klang, Selangor
63
4.3.5
Tanjung Keling, Melaka
64
4.3.6
Kukup, Johor
65
Sea Level Rise (SLR) Prediction
65
4.4.1
Teluk Ewa, Langkawi, Kedah
66
4.4.2
Penang
68
4.4.3
Lumut, Perak
70
4.4.4
Port Klang, Selangor
72
4.4.5
Tanjung Keling, Melaka
74
4.4.6
Kukup, Johor
76
Summary of the Mean Sea Level Trend Analysis
78
xi
5
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
81
5.1
Introduction
82
5.2
Conclusion
80
5.3
Recommendation
83
REFERENCES
APPENDICES A – F
84
88-137
xii
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE NO.
TITLE
PAGE
1.1
Map of Malaysia Coastline
3
1.2
Study area locations
6
2.1
UN sea level rise response strategies
9
2.2
Causes of sea level change and the components of sea
level rise
2.3
10
Sources of sea level rise and their contributions in
mm per year for the periods 1961-2003 and 19932003 from the IPCC 2007 assessment
2.4
The ocean beach and bay shore sea level rise
characteristic
2.5
14
Table listed the biophysical and sosio-economic
impacts from sea level
2.7
13
The future prediction of sea level for the next 120
years
2.6
12
20
Time series of global mean sea level (deviation from
the 1980-1999 mean) in the past and as projected for
the future
22
2.8
ASIAN Cities at risk due to sea -level rise
24
2.9
Latin America and Caribbean Cities at risk due to sea
2.10
level rise
25
AFRICAN Cities at risk due to sea -level rise
25
xiii
2.11
Graphs on impact of alternative sea level
26
2.12
Sea-level rise will displace millions across the world
28
2.13
Shoreline changes of the Chao Phraya delta west of
the river mouth in 1952, 1967, 1987, 1995, 2000, and
2004 (modified after Rokugawa et al., 2006). The
shoreline retreated overall more than 1 km
29
2.14
Wat Khun Samutchin
30
2.15
Wat Khun Samutchin where three steps are buried
below the present ground level
31
2.16
An example of a linear trend
37
3.1
Research Methodology Flowchart
46
3.2
MINITAB Release 14 Statistical Software
48
4.1
Mann-Kendall Test for Teluk Ewa, Langkawi, Kedah
53
4.2
Mann-Kendall Test for Penang
54
4.3
Mann-Kendall Test for Lumut, Perak
55
4.4
Mann-Kendall Test for Port Klang, Selangor
56
4.5
Mann-Kendall Test for Tanjung Keling, Melaka
57
4.6
Mann-Kendall Test for Kukup, Johor
58
4.7
Trend analysis of MSL for Teluk Ewa Langkawi
60
4.8
Trend analysis of MSL for Penang
61
4.9
Trend analysis of MSL for Lumut, Perak
62
xiv
4.10
Trend analysis of MSL for Port Klang, Selangor
63
4.11
Trend analysis of MSL for Tanjung Keling, Melaka
64
4.12
Trend analysis of MSL for Kukup, Johor
65
4.13
Graph of predicted MSL for Teluk Ewa, Langkawi in
year 2050 and 2100
66
4.14
Residual pots for Teluk Ewa, Langkawi
67
4.15
Graph of predicted MSL for Penang in year 2050 and
2100
68
4.16
Residual plots for Penang
69
4.17
Graph of predicted MSL for Lumut in year 2050 and
2100
70
4.18
Residual plots for Lumut
71
4.19
Graph of predicted MSL for Port Klang in year 2050
and 2100
72
4.20
Residual plots for Port Klang
73
4.21
Graph of predicted MSL for Tanjung Keling in year
2050 and 2100
74
4.22
Residual plot for Tanjung Keling
75
4.23
Graph of predicted MSL for Kukup in year 2050 and
2100
76
4.24
Residual plots for Kukup
77
4.25
Incremental SLR along Straits of Malacca
80
xv
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE NO.
TITLE
PAGE
2.1
Sea Level Rise Scenario’s for Vietnam (in centimetres)
32
2.2
Summary of changes in the global environment by the
2020s, 2050s and 2080s for the four scenarios
2.3
Observed and predicted sea level rise at Tanjung Piai,
Johor
2.4
35
Observed and predicted sea level rise at Teluk Ewa,
Langkawi
2.5
33
36
Summary of annual sea level trends at 5% significance
level
43
3.1
Information on the selected tidal gauge station
47
4.1
Summary of the Mann – Kendall Test Results on the
MSL data at the selected stations
59
4.2
Summary of the Results
78
4.3
Predicted Sea Level Rise (SLR) in year 2050 and 2100
for all Stations on West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia
79
xvi
LIST OF NOMENCLATURE
Abbreviation
DID
Drainage and Irrigation Department
IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IRIN
Integrated Regional Information Networks
LAT
Latitude
LONG
Longitude
MSL
Mean Sea Level
MMD
Malaysian Meteorological Department
MSMD
Malaysia Survey and Mapping Department
NOAA
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
RMN
Royal Malaysian Navy
SLR
Sea Level Rise
SRES
Special Report on Emmission Scenarios
UN
United Nation
USA
United State of America
STN
Station
km
Kilometer
m
Meter
cm
Centimeter
mm
Milimeter
Yr
Year
xvii
LIST OF SYMBOL
n
Sample size
S
Indicator of a trend in a series of data
VAR (S)
A measure of dispersion, or how spread out the data are,
about the mean
z
Normal probability of the data distribution
t
Time
Y
Dependent variable,
Intercept
0
1
,
2
Regression coefficient
t
Regressor variable
a
Exponent variable for common log, a
.
1
xviii
LIST OF APPENDICES
APPENDIX
TITLE
PAGE
A
Monthly MSL Data for Teluk Ewa, Langkawi
88
B
Monthly MSL Data for Penang
95
C
Monthly MSL Data for Lumut
104
D
Monthly MSL Data for Port Klang
112
E
Monthly MSL Data for Tanjung Keling
121
F
Monthly MSL Data for Kukup
129