18‐Oct‐11
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org
Click on PDF or Excel link above for additional tables containing more detail and breakdowns by filing status and demographic groups.
Table T11‐0372
Herman Cain's "9‐9‐9" Tax Reform Plan without Poverty Deduction 1
Baseline: Current Law
Fully Phased in Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Cash Income Level 2
Summary Table
Cash Income Level (thousands of 2011 3
dollars) Less than 10
10‐20
20‐30
30‐40
40‐50
50‐75
75‐100
100‐200
200‐500
500‐1,000
More than 1,000
All
4
Tax Units with Tax Increase or Cut With Tax Cut
Pct of Tax Avg Tax Cut
Units
4.0
1.9
4.0
11.0
10.5
24.8
31.9
58.5
85.9
92.1
96.7
21.0
‐458
‐1,218
‐1,442
‐1,233
‐1,622
‐2,671
‐4,495
‐7,397
‐25,623
‐91,302
‐611,979
‐19,275
With Tax Increase
Pct of Tax Avg Tax Units
Increase
82.8
97.6
95.8
88.9
89.4
75.2
68.1
41.5
14.1
7.9
3.3
77.0
1,231
2,485
3,359
3,895
3,994
4,752
5,170
4,906
8,495
21,503
96,368
3,499
Percent Change in After‐Tax 5
Income Share of Total Federal Tax Change
‐18.2
‐16.4
‐13.7
‐10.8
‐8.8
‐5.8
‐3.0
2.1
9.4
16.4
30.5
2.3
‐10.0
‐31.1
‐30.4
‐26.7
‐21.5
‐31.7
‐14.7
21.7
57.7
39.9
146.9
100.0
Average Federal Tax Change ($)
1,001
2,402
3,156
3,327
3,407
2,939
2,119
‐2,195
‐20,029
‐80,315
‐581,154
‐1,271
Average Federal Tax Rate6
Change (% Points)
Under the Proposal
17.4
15.8
12.4
9.3
7.4
4.7
2.4
‐1.6
‐6.8
‐11.5
‐19.2
‐1.8
22.1
19.7
22.1
23.2
23.8
23.8
23.8
23.1
20.6
18.1
17.9
21.9
Source: Urban‐Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (version 0411‐2).
Number of AMT Taxpayers (millions). Baseline: 21.0 Proposal: 0.0
* Less than 0.05
** Insufficient data
(1) Since we conducted this analysis, the Cain campaign has said tax units could claim a deduction on the individual flat tax to mitigate the effects on households below the poverty level. Despite several requests for clarification, the campaign has not defined clearly how that deduction would work. This analysis therefore does not include a poverty deduction. Including a poverty deduction would reduce taxes for households claiming the deduction but would require either higher tax rates or a broader tax base in order to raise the same amount of revenue as the version of the plan without poverty relief. (Footnote added November 10, 2011)
(2) Baseline is 2013 current law. Proposal replaces the individual income tax, corporate income tax, payroll tax and estate tax with presidential candidate Herman Cain's 9‐9‐9 Plan. The fully phased in proposal is evaluated at 2013 income levels and all amounts are expressed in 2013 dollars. For a detailed description of TPC's interpretation of the 9‐9‐
9 Plan, see www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Cain‐9‐9‐9‐plan.cfm. For a description of TPC's current law and current policy baselines, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/T11‐0270
(3) Tax units with negative cash income are excluded from the lowest income class but are included in the totals. For a description of cash income, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxModel/income.cfm
(4) Includes both filing and non‐filing units but excludes those that are dependents of other tax units.
(5) After‐tax income is cash income less: individual income tax net of refundable credits; corporate income tax; payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare); and estate tax.
(6) Average federal tax (includes individual and corporate income tax, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, and the estate tax) as a percentage of average cash income. 18‐Oct‐11
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org
Table T11‐0372
Herman Cain's "9‐9‐9" Tax Reform Plan without Poverty Deduction 1
Baseline: Current Law
Fully Phased in Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Cash Income Level 2
Detail Table
Cash Income Level (thousands of 2011 dollars) 3
Less than 10
10‐20
20‐30
30‐40
40‐50
50‐75
75‐100
100‐200
200‐500
500‐1,000
More than 1,000
All
Percent of Tax Units 4
With Tax Cut
With Tax Increase
4.0
1.9
4.0
11.0
10.5
24.8
31.9
58.5
85.9
92.1
96.7
21.0
82.8
97.6
95.8
88.9
89.4
75.2
68.1
41.5
14.1
7.9
3.3
77.0
Percent Change in After‐Tax Income 5
Share of Total Federal Tax Change
‐18.2
‐16.4
‐13.7
‐10.8
‐8.8
‐5.8
‐3.0
2.1
9.4
16.4
30.5
2.3
‐10.0
‐31.1
‐30.4
‐26.7
‐21.5
‐31.7
‐14.7
21.7
57.7
39.9
146.9
100.0
Average Federal Tax Change
Share of Federal Taxes
Dollars
Percent
Change (% Points)
1,001
2,402
3,156
3,327
3,407
2,939
2,119
‐2,195
‐20,029
‐80,315
‐581,154
‐1,271
367.5
408.0
128.0
66.7
45.0
24.4
11.1
‐6.4
‐25.0
‐38.9
‐51.7
‐7.4
0.8
2.5
2.6
2.4
2.0
3.3
2.0
0.3
‐3.3
‐2.6
‐10.1
0.0
Average Federal Tax Rate6
Under the Proposal
Change (% Points)
1.0
3.1
4.4
5.4
5.6
13.0
11.8
25.6
13.9
5.0
11.0
100.0
17.4
15.8
12.4
9.3
7.4
4.7
2.4
‐1.6
‐6.8
‐11.5
‐19.2
‐1.8
Under the Proposal
22.1
19.7
22.1
23.2
23.8
23.8
23.8
23.1
20.6
18.1
17.9
21.9
Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes
by Cash Income Level, 2013 2
Cash Income Level (thousands of 2011 dollars) 3
Less than 10
10‐20
20‐30
30‐40
40‐50
50‐75
75‐100
100‐200
200‐500
500‐1,000
More than 1,000
All
Tax Units 4
Pre‐Tax Income
Number (thousands)
Percent of Total
Average (dollars)
21,065
27,359
20,377
16,959
13,305
22,765
14,636
20,881
6,084
1,051
534
166,272
12.7
16.5
12.3
10.2
8.0
13.7
8.8
12.6
3.7
0.6
0.3
100.0
5,766
15,205
25,480
35,896
46,141
63,142
89,268
139,817
292,655
696,116
3,032,367
72,381
Federal Tax Burden
Percent of Total
1.0
3.5
4.3
5.1
5.1
11.9
10.9
24.3
14.8
6.1
13.5
100.0
After‐Tax Income 5
Average (dollars)
Percent of Total
Average (dollars)
Percent of Total
272
589
2,466
4,988
7,566
12,061
19,150
34,450
80,279
206,531
1,123,823
17,091
0.2
0.6
1.8
3.0
3.5
9.7
9.9
25.3
17.2
7.6
21.1
100.0
5,493
14,616
23,015
30,908
38,575
51,081
70,119
105,367
212,377
489,585
1,908,544
55,290
1.3
4.4
5.1
5.7
5.6
12.7
11.2
23.9
14.1
5.6
11.1
100.0
Average Federal Tax Rate 6
4.7
3.9
9.7
13.9
16.4
19.1
21.5
24.6
27.4
29.7
37.1
23.6
Source: Urban‐Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (version 0411‐2).
Number of AMT Taxpayers (millions). Baseline: 21.0 Proposal: 0.0
* Less than 0.05
(1) Since we conducted this analysis, the Cain campaign has said tax units could claim a deduction on the individual flat tax to mitigate the effects on households below the poverty level. Despite several requests
for clarification, the campaign has not defined clearly how that deduction would work. This analysis therefore does not include a poverty deduction. Including a poverty deduction would reduce taxes for households claiming the deduction but would require either higher tax rates or a broader tax base in order to raise the same amount of revenue as the version of the plan without poverty relief. (Footnote added November 10, 2011)
(2) Baseline is 2013 current law. Proposal replaces the individual income tax, corporate income tax, payroll tax and estate tax with presidential candidate Herman Cain's 9‐9‐9 Plan. The fully phased in proposal is
evaluated at 2013 income levels and all amounts are expressed in 2013 dollars. For a detailed description of TPC's interpretation of the 9‐9‐9 Plan, see www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Cain‐9‐9‐9‐plan.cfm. For a description of TPC's current law and current policy baselines, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/T11‐0270
(3) Tax units with negative cash income are excluded from the lowest income class but are included in the totals. For a description of cash income, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxModel/income.cfm
(4) Includes both filing and non‐filing units but excludes those that are dependents of other tax units.
(5) After‐tax income is cash income less: individual income tax net of refundable credits; corporate income tax; payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare); and estate tax.
(6) Average federal tax (includes individual and corporate income tax, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, and the estate tax) as a percentage of average cash income. 18‐Oct‐11
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org
Table T11‐0372
Herman Cain's "9‐9‐9" Tax Reform Plan without Poverty Deduction 1
Baseline: Current Law
Fully Phased in Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Cash Income Level 2
Detail Table ‐ Single Tax Units
Cash Income Level (thousands of 2011 dollars) 3
Less than 10
10‐20
20‐30
30‐40
40‐50
50‐75
75‐100
100‐200
200‐500
500‐1,000
More than 1,000
All
Percent of Tax Units 4
With Tax Cut
With Tax Increase
3.8
2.3
5.5
18.1
19.8
51.2
75.0
82.6
88.1
90.5
97.2
19.2
81.5
97.1
94.2
81.7
80.2
48.7
25.0
17.4
11.9
9.5
2.8
77.2
Percent Change in After‐Tax Income 5
Share of Total Federal Tax Change
‐14.6
‐11.6
‐8.7
‐6.7
‐4.3
‐0.1
5.0
9.5
18.6
28.5
42.7
2.0
‐26.4
‐63.8
‐48.7
‐37.9
‐19.4
‐1.0
23.9
64.6
62.9
35.0
111.0
100.0
Average Federal Tax Change
Dollars
Percent
773
1,630
1,930
2,021
1,589
58
‐3,270
‐9,409
‐38,719
‐130,438
‐737,741
‐606
192.3
164.1
60.6
35.1
17.3
0.4
‐14.4
‐25.3
‐42.8
‐54.5
‐60.2
‐7.0
Share of Federal Taxes
Change (% Points)
2.1
5.0
4.1
3.4
2.1
1.4
‐0.9
‐3.5
‐4.0
‐2.3
‐7.4
0.0
Average Federal Tax Rate6
Under the Proposal
Change (% Points)
3.0
7.8
9.8
11.0
9.9
19.1
10.8
14.4
6.3
2.2
5.6
100.0
13.6
10.8
7.6
5.6
3.5
0.1
‐3.7
‐6.9
‐13.0
‐18.7
‐25.0
‐1.6
Under the Proposal
20.7
17.4
20.2
21.7
23.4
22.8
22.1
20.4
17.3
15.6
16.6
20.6
Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes
by Cash Income Level, 2013 2
Cash Income Level (thousands of 2011 dollars) 3
Less than 10
10‐20
20‐30
30‐40
40‐50
50‐75
75‐100
100‐200
200‐500
500‐1,000
More than 1,000
All
Tax Units 4
Pre‐Tax Income
Number (thousands)
Percent of Total
16,722
19,121
12,334
9,158
5,981
8,668
3,570
3,358
794
131
74
80,622
20.7
23.7
15.3
11.4
7.4
10.8
4.4
4.2
1.0
0.2
0.1
100.0
Federal Tax Burden
After‐Tax Income 5
Average (dollars)
Percent of Total
Average (dollars)
Percent of Total
Average (dollars)
Percent of Total
5,678
15,084
25,339
35,802
45,980
62,437
88,424
136,678
298,894
696,170
2,952,272
39,043
3.0
9.2
9.9
10.4
8.7
17.2
10.0
14.6
7.5
2.9
6.9
100.0
402
993
3,188
5,751
9,164
14,174
22,778
37,252
90,423
239,164
1,226,221
8,637
1.0
2.7
5.7
7.6
7.9
17.6
11.7
18.0
10.3
4.5
13.0
100.0
5,276
14,090
22,151
30,051
36,816
48,263
65,646
99,426
208,471
457,007
1,726,051
30,407
3.6
11.0
11.2
11.2
9.0
17.1
9.6
13.6
6.8
2.5
5.2
100.0
Average Federal Tax Rate 6
7.1
6.6
12.6
16.1
19.9
22.7
25.8
27.3
30.3
34.4
41.5
22.1
Source: Urban‐Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (version 0411‐2).
* Less than 0.05
(1) Since we conducted this analysis, the Cain campaign has said tax units could claim a deduction on the individual flat tax to mitigate the effects on households below the poverty level. Despite several requests for clarification, the campaign has not defined clearly how that deduction would work. This analysis therefore does not include a poverty deduction. Including a poverty deduction would reduce taxes for households claiming the deduction but would require either higher tax rates or a broader tax base in order to raise the same amount of revenue as the version of the plan without poverty relief. (Footnote added November 10, 2011)
(2) Baseline is 2013 current law. Proposal replaces the individual income tax, corporate income tax, payroll tax and estate tax with presidential candidate Herman Cain's 9‐9‐9 Plan. The fully phased in proposal is evaluated at 2013 income levels and all amounts are expressed in 2013 dollars. For a detailed description of TPC's interpretation of the 9‐9‐9 Plan, see www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Cain‐9‐9‐9‐plan.cfm. For a description of TPC's current law and current policy baselines, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/T11‐0270
(3) Tax units with negative cash income are excluded from the lowest income class but are included in the totals. For a description of cash income, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxModel/income.cfm
(4) Includes both filing and non‐filing units but excludes those that are dependents of other tax units.
(5) After‐tax income is cash income less: individual income tax net of refundable credits; corporate income tax; payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare); and estate tax.
(6) Average federal tax (includes individual and corporate income tax, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, and the estate tax) as a percentage of average cash income. 18‐Oct‐11
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org
Table T11‐0372
Herman Cain's "9‐9‐9" Tax Reform Plan without Poverty Deduction 1
Baseline: Current Law
Fully Phased in Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Cash Income Level 2
Detail Table ‐ Married Tax Units Filing Jointly
Cash Income Level (thousands of 2011 dollars) 3
Less than 10
10‐20
20‐30
30‐40
40‐50
50‐75
75‐100
100‐200
200‐500
500‐1,000
More than 1,000
All
Percent of Tax Units 4
With Tax Cut
With Tax Increase
8.2
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.1
5.3
12.8
52.3
85.9
92.4
96.8
28.5
75.5
96.6
97.4
97.5
97.9
94.8
87.2
47.7
14.1
7.6
3.2
71.0
Percent Change in After‐Tax Income 5
Share of Total Federal Tax Change
‐39.4
‐26.0
‐20.0
‐16.0
‐13.7
‐10.2
‐6.1
0.6
8.0
14.8
28.4
4.0
‐1.1
‐4.5
‐6.0
‐8.2
‐11.0
‐24.5
‐18.2
4.2
37.8
28.1
103.6
100.0
Average Federal Tax Change
Dollars
Percent
1,948
4,057
4,813
5,212
5,651
5,487
4,428
‐586
‐17,052
‐72,975
‐541,638
‐3,976
1,269.8
1,891.2
312.2
143.8
105.8
54.4
25.2
‐1.7
‐21.7
‐36.2
‐50.0
‐11.9
Share of Federal Taxes
Change (% Points)
0.2
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.7
4.1
3.6
3.4
‐2.3
‐2.6
‐10.7
0.0
Average Federal Tax Rate6
Under the Proposal
Change (% Points)
0.2
0.6
1.1
1.9
2.9
9.4
12.2
32.3
18.5
6.7
14.0
100.0
38.2
25.6
18.8
14.4
12.2
8.6
4.9
‐0.4
‐5.8
‐10.5
‐18.1
‐3.0
Under the Proposal
41.3
27.0
24.8
24.4
23.7
24.3
24.5
23.7
21.1
18.5
18.1
22.1
Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes
by Cash Income Level, 2013 2
Cash Income Level (thousands of 2011 dollars) 3
Less than 10
10‐20
20‐30
30‐40
40‐50
50‐75
75‐100
100‐200
200‐500
500‐1,000
More than 1,000
All
Tax Units 4
Pre‐Tax Income
Number (thousands)
Percent of Total
1,291
2,559
2,875
3,624
4,468
10,281
9,429
16,457
5,091
885
440
57,802
2.2
4.4
5.0
6.3
7.7
17.8
16.3
28.5
8.8
1.5
0.8
100.0
Federal Tax Burden
After‐Tax Income 5
Average (dollars)
Percent of Total
Average (dollars)
Percent of Total
Average (dollars)
Percent of Total
5,093
15,850
25,634
36,207
46,489
63,998
89,794
140,888
291,809
696,396
2,988,320
132,789
0.1
0.5
1.0
1.7
2.7
8.6
11.0
30.2
19.4
8.0
17.1
100.0
153
215
1,541
3,625
5,342
10,088
17,579
33,901
78,740
201,725
1,083,481
33,359
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.7
1.2
5.4
8.6
28.9
20.8
9.3
24.7
100.0
4,940
15,635
24,093
32,582
41,148
53,910
72,215
106,987
213,069
494,671
1,904,839
99,430
0.1
0.7
1.2
2.1
3.2
9.6
11.9
30.6
18.9
7.6
14.6
100.0
Average Federal Tax Rate 6
3.0
1.4
6.0
10.0
11.5
15.8
19.6
24.1
27.0
29.0
36.3
25.1
Source: Urban‐Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (version 0411‐2).
* Less than 0.05
(1) Since we conducted this analysis, the Cain campaign has said tax units could claim a deduction on the individual flat tax to mitigate the effects on households below the poverty level. Despite several requests for clarification, the campaign has not defined clearly how that deduction would work. This analysis therefore does not include a poverty deduction. Including a poverty deduction would reduce taxes for households claiming the deduction but would require either higher tax rates or a broader tax base in order to raise the same amount of revenue as the version of the plan without poverty relief. (Footnote added November 10, 2011)
(2) Baseline is 2013 current law. Proposal replaces the individual income tax, corporate income tax, payroll tax and estate tax with presidential candidate Herman Cain's 9‐9‐9 Plan. The fully phased in proposal is evaluated at 2013 income levels and all amounts are expressed in 2013 dollars. For a detailed description of TPC's interpretation of the 9‐9‐9 Plan, see www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Cain‐9‐9‐9‐plan.cfm. For a description of TPC's current law and current policy baselines, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/T11‐0270
(3) Tax units with negative cash income are excluded from the lowest income class but are included in the totals. For a description of cash income, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxModel/income.cfm
(4) Includes both filing and non‐filing units but excludes those that are dependents of other tax units.
(5) After‐tax income is cash income less: individual income tax net of refundable credits; corporate income tax; payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare); and estate tax.
(6) Average federal tax (includes individual and corporate income tax, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, and the estate tax) as a percentage of average cash income. 18‐Oct‐11
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org
Table T11‐0372
Herman Cain's "9‐9‐9" Tax Reform Plan without Poverty Deduction 1
Baseline: Current Law
Fully Phased in Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Cash Income Level 2
Detail Table ‐ Head of Household Tax Units
Cash Income Level (thousands of 2011 dollars) 3
Less than 10
10‐20
20‐30
30‐40
40‐50
50‐75
75‐100
100‐200
200‐500
500‐1,000
More than 1,000
All
Percent of Tax Units 4
With Tax Cut
With Tax Increase
2.9
0.3
0.6
0.9
2.1
13.3
44.7
77.5
76.1
92.6
95.2
8.4
93.4
99.6
99.2
99.1
97.8
86.6
55.3
22.5
23.9
7.4
4.8
91.0
Percent Change in After‐Tax Income 5
Share of Total Federal Tax Change
‐26.7
‐27.2
‐21.7
‐15.3
‐10.1
‐5.8
‐1.3
3.8
8.0
13.9
30.3
‐9.5
6.8
29.3
32.3
22.5
12.1
12.0
1.5
‐4.2
‐3.1
‐2.0
‐7.2
100.0
Average Federal Tax Change
Dollars
Percent
1,876
4,375
5,365
4,839
3,901
2,914
867
‐3,738
‐16,943
‐67,166
‐538,671
3,190
‐429.7
‐576.0
520.0
115.8
52.6
23.8
4.4
‐11.2
‐22.3
‐35.0
‐49.9
50.5
Share of Federal Taxes
Change (% Points)
2.5
10.7
9.8
4.3
0.2
‐4.5
‐5.2
‐7.8
‐3.5
‐1.6
‐4.9
0.0
Average Federal Tax Rate6
Under the Proposal
Change (% Points)
1.8
8.1
12.9
14.1
11.8
20.9
11.7
11.2
3.7
1.2
2.4
100.0
28.5
28.6
20.9
13.5
8.5
4.7
1.0
‐2.8
‐5.9
‐10.0
‐18.8
8.0
Under the Proposal
21.9
23.6
24.9
25.2
24.6
24.3
23.6
22.4
20.6
18.5
18.9
23.8
Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes
by Cash Income Level, 2013 2
Cash Income Level (thousands of 2011 dollars) 3
Less than 10
10‐20
20‐30
30‐40
40‐50
50‐75
75‐100
100‐200
200‐500
500‐1,000
More than 1,000
All
Tax Units 4
Pre‐Tax Income
Number (thousands)
Percent of Total
2,911
5,398
4,846
3,748
2,505
3,317
1,353
905
149
24
11
25,256
11.5
21.4
19.2
14.8
9.9
13.1
5.4
3.6
0.6
0.1
0.0
100.0
Federal Tax Burden
After‐Tax Income 5
Average (dollars)
Percent of Total
Average (dollars)
Percent of Total
Average (dollars)
Percent of Total
6,577
15,312
25,728
35,771
45,998
62,381
88,201
132,511
287,163
675,227
2,859,898
39,986
1.9
8.2
12.4
13.3
11.4
20.5
11.8
11.9
4.3
1.6
3.1
100.0
‐436
‐760
1,032
4,179
7,422
12,232
19,936
33,396
76,042
191,872
1,080,094
6,311
‐0.8
‐2.6
3.1
9.8
11.7
25.5
16.9
19.0
7.1
2.9
7.3
100.0
7,013
16,071
24,696
31,592
38,576
50,149
68,264
99,115
211,121
483,355
1,779,804
33,675
2.4
10.2
14.1
13.9
11.4
19.6
10.9
10.5
3.7
1.4
2.3
100.0
Average Federal Tax Rate 6
‐6.6
‐5.0
4.0
11.7
16.1
19.6
22.6
25.2
26.5
28.4
37.8
15.8
Source: Urban‐Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (version 0411‐2).
* Less than 0.05
(1) Since we conducted this analysis, the Cain campaign has said tax units could claim a deduction on the individual flat tax to mitigate the effects on households below the poverty level. Despite several requests for clarification, the campaign has not defined clearly how that deduction would work. This analysis therefore does not include a poverty deduction. Including a poverty deduction would reduce taxes for households claiming the deduction but would require either higher tax rates or a broader tax base in order to raise the same amount of revenue as the version of the plan without poverty relief. (Footnote added November 10, 2011)
(2) Baseline is 2013 current law. Proposal replaces the individual income tax, corporate income tax, payroll tax and estate tax with presidential candidate Herman Cain's 9‐9‐9 Plan. The fully phased in proposal is evaluated at 2013 income levels and all amounts are expressed in 2013 dollars. For a detailed description of TPC's interpretation of the 9‐9‐9 Plan, see www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Cain‐9‐9‐9‐plan.cfm. For a description of TPC's current law and current policy baselines, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/T11‐0270
(3) Tax units with negative cash income are excluded from the lowest income class but are included in the totals. For a description of cash income, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxModel/income.cfm
(4) Includes both filing and non‐filing units but excludes those that are dependents of other tax units.
(5) After‐tax income is cash income less: individual income tax net of refundable credits; corporate income tax; payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare); and estate tax.
(6) Average federal tax (includes individual and corporate income tax, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, and the estate tax) as a percentage of average cash income. 18‐Oct‐11
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org
Table T11‐0372
Herman Cain's "9‐9‐9" Tax Reform Plan without Poverty Deduction 1
Baseline: Current Law
Fully Phased in Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Cash Income Level 2
Detail Table ‐ Tax Units with Children
Cash Income Level (thousands of 2011 dollars) 3
Less than 10
10‐20
20‐30
30‐40
40‐50
50‐75
75‐100
100‐200
200‐500
500‐1,000
More than 1,000
All
Percent of Tax Units 4
With Tax Cut
With Tax Increase
1.0
0.4
0.5
0.8
1.6
6.1
15.2
48.0
85.6
94.7
97.5
18.1
81.2
99.1
99.5
99.2
98.4
93.8
84.8
52.0
14.5
5.3
2.5
80.5
Percent Change in After‐Tax Income 5
‐32.6
‐32.2
‐24.5
‐17.4
‐13.1
‐9.4
‐5.9
‐0.1
6.9
13.8
27.9
‐0.2
Share of Total Federal Tax Change
141.6
601.1
664.9
526.3
393.6
699.8
471.9
16.1
‐772.4
‐584.8
‐2,065.9
100.0
Average Federal Tax Change
Share of Federal Taxes
Dollars
Percent
Change (% Points)
2,163
5,453
6,167
5,577
5,121
4,873
4,148
90
‐14,420
‐66,748
‐514,052
104
‐331.3
‐382.1
1,136.6
144.7
73.5
41.4
21.8
0.3
‐18.0
‐31.6
‐46.7
0.5
0.7
2.8
3.1
2.4
1.8
3.2
2.1
‐0.1
‐3.7
‐2.8
‐9.7
0.0
Average Federal Tax Rate6
Under the Proposal
Change (% Points)
0.5
2.1
3.4
4.1
4.3
11.1
12.2
29.1
16.3
5.9
10.9
100.0
36.1
35.1
24.0
15.6
11.1
7.7
4.6
0.1
‐5.0
‐9.6
‐17.5
0.1
Under the Proposal
25.2
25.9
26.1
26.3
26.2
26.2
25.9
24.8
22.6
20.8
19.9
24.1
Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes
by Cash Income Level, 2013 2
Cash Income Level (thousands of 2011 dollars) 3
Less than 10
10‐20
20‐30
30‐40
40‐50
50‐75
75‐100
100‐200
200‐500
500‐1,000
More than 1,000
All
Tax Units 4
Pre‐Tax Income
Number (thousands)
Percent of Total
Average (dollars)
3,361
5,658
5,534
4,844
3,945
7,372
5,840
9,226
2,749
450
206
49,418
6.8
11.5
11.2
9.8
8.0
14.9
11.8
18.7
5.6
0.9
0.4
100.0
5,988
15,525
25,702
35,836
46,072
63,539
89,617
140,522
290,144
695,662
2,943,211
93,026
Federal Tax Burden
Percent of Total
0.4
1.9
3.1
3.8
4.0
10.2
11.4
28.2
17.4
6.8
13.2
100.0
After‐Tax Income 5
Average (dollars)
Percent of Total
Average (dollars)
Percent of Total
‐653
‐1,427
543
3,855
6,969
11,781
19,060
34,805
80,122
211,294
1,101,072
22,303
‐0.2
‐0.7
0.3
1.7
2.5
7.9
10.1
29.1
20.0
8.6
20.6
100.0
6,640
16,953
25,160
31,981
39,103
51,758
70,557
105,717
210,021
484,368
1,842,139
70,723
0.6
2.7
4.0
4.4
4.4
10.9
11.8
27.9
16.5
6.2
10.9
100.0
Average Federal Tax Rate 6
‐10.9
‐9.2
2.1
10.8
15.1
18.5
21.3
24.8
27.6
30.4
37.4
24.0
Source: Urban‐Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (version 0411‐2).
* Less than 0.05
Note: Tax units with children are those claiming an exemption for children at home or away from home
(1) Since we conducted this analysis, the Cain campaign has said tax units could claim a deduction on the individual flat tax to mitigate the effects on households below the poverty level. Despite several requests
for clarification, the campaign has not defined clearly how that deduction would work. This analysis therefore does not include a poverty deduction. Including a poverty deduction would reduce taxes for households claiming the deduction but would require either higher tax rates or a broader tax base in order to raise the same amount of revenue as the version of the plan without poverty relief. (Footnote added November 10, 2011)
(2) Baseline is 2013 current law. Proposal replaces the individual income tax, corporate income tax, payroll tax and estate tax with presidential candidate Herman Cain's 9‐9‐9 Plan. The fully phased in proposal is
evaluated at 2013 income levels and all amounts are expressed in 2013 dollars. For a detailed description of TPC's interpretation of the 9‐9‐9 Plan, see www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Cain‐9‐9‐9‐plan.cfm. For a description of TPC's current law and current policy baselines, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/T11‐0270
(3) Tax units with negative cash income are excluded from the lowest income class but are included in the totals. For a description of cash income, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxModel/income.cfm
(4) Includes both filing and non‐filing units but excludes those that are dependents of other tax units.
(5) After‐tax income is cash income less: individual income tax net of refundable credits; corporate income tax; payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare); and estate tax.
(6) Average federal tax (includes individual and corporate income tax, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, and the estate tax) as a percentage of average cash income. 18‐Oct‐11
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org
Table T11‐0372
Herman Cain's "9‐9‐9" Tax Reform Plan without Poverty Deduction 1
Baseline: Current Law
Fully Phased in Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Cash Income Level 2
Detail Table ‐ Elderly Tax Units
Cash Income Level (thousands of 2011 dollars) 3
Less than 10
10‐20
20‐30
30‐40
40‐50
50‐75
75‐100
100‐200
200‐500
500‐1,000
More than 1,000
All
Percent of Tax Units 4
With Tax Cut
With Tax Increase
4.4
1.6
5.0
7.0
6.1
14.8
23.5
50.3
80.9
89.3
96.6
15.6
85.8
98.2
94.9
93.0
93.9
85.2
76.5
49.7
19.1
10.7
3.4
83.5
Percent Change in After‐Tax Income 5
Share of Total Federal Tax Change
‐13.3
‐11.4
‐10.4
‐10.9
‐11.7
‐7.7
‐4.1
3.6
14.8
24.5
38.6
4.3
‐3.0
‐16.4
‐14.1
‐15.8
‐16.0
‐24.8
‐10.5
17.0
46.3
31.7
105.4
100.0
Average Federal Tax Change
Share of Federal Taxes
Dollars
Percent
Change (% Points)
891
1,707
2,544
3,693
5,071
4,272
3,073
‐3,946
‐32,329
‐118,806
‐728,223
‐2,420
1,491.0
1,136.8
333.7
176.5
153.6
56.7
21.8
‐13.3
‐40.5
‐55.5
‐60.9
‐17.0
0.6
3.4
3.0
3.5
3.6
6.6
3.8
1.0
‐5.5
‐4.5
‐15.5
0.0
Average Federal Tax Rate6
Under the Proposal
Change (% Points)
0.7
3.6
3.7
5.1
5.4
14.0
12.0
22.6
13.9
5.2
13.8
100.0
13.2
11.3
10.1
10.3
10.9
6.8
3.5
‐2.8
‐10.8
‐17.0
‐23.6
‐3.4
Under the Proposal
14.1
12.3
13.1
16.1
18.0
18.7
19.3
18.4
15.9
13.6
15.2
16.7
Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes
by Cash Income Level, 2013 2
Cash Income Level (thousands of 2011 dollars) 3
Less than 10
10‐20
20‐30
30‐40
40‐50
50‐75
75‐100
100‐200
200‐500
500‐1,000
More than 1,000
All
Tax Units 4
Pre‐Tax Income
Number (thousands)
Percent of Total
Average (dollars)
3,030
8,603
4,956
3,838
2,823
5,216
3,053
3,858
1,285
239
130
37,068
8.2
23.2
13.4
10.4
7.6
14.1
8.2
10.4
3.5
0.7
0.4
100.0
6,762
15,150
25,187
35,853
46,514
63,113
88,974
139,885
298,833
698,342
3,081,067
71,055
Federal Tax Burden
Percent of Total
0.8
5.0
4.7
5.2
5.0
12.5
10.3
20.5
14.6
6.4
15.2
100.0
After‐Tax Income 5
Average (dollars)
Percent of Total
Average (dollars)
Percent of Total
60
150
762
2,093
3,301
7,541
14,117
29,636
79,843
213,998
1,195,078
14,265
0.0
0.2
0.7
1.5
1.8
7.4
8.2
21.6
19.4
9.7
29.3
100.0
6,702
14,999
24,425
33,760
43,213
55,571
74,857
110,249
218,990
484,344
1,885,989
56,790
1.0
6.1
5.8
6.2
5.8
13.8
10.9
20.2
13.4
5.5
11.6
100.0
Average Federal Tax Rate 6
0.9
1.0
3.0
5.8
7.1
12.0
15.9
21.2
26.7
30.6
38.8
20.1
Source: Urban‐Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (version 0411‐2).
* Less than 0.05
Note: Elderly tax units are those with either head or spouse (if filing jointly) age 65 or older
(1) Since we conducted this analysis, the Cain campaign has said tax units could claim a deduction on the individual flat tax to mitigate the effects on households below the poverty level. Despite several requests
for clarification, the campaign has not defined clearly how that deduction would work. This analysis therefore does not include a poverty deduction. Including a poverty deduction would reduce taxes for households claiming the deduction but would require either higher tax rates or a broader tax base in order to raise the same amount of revenue as the version of the plan without poverty relief. (Footnote added November 10, 2011)
(2) Baseline is 2013 current law. Proposal replaces the individual income tax, corporate income tax, payroll tax and estate tax with presidential candidate Herman Cain's 9‐9‐9 Plan. The fully phased in proposal is
evaluated at 2013 income levels and all amounts are expressed in 2013 dollars. For a detailed description of TPC's interpretation of the 9‐9‐9 Plan, see www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Cain‐9‐9‐9‐plan.cfm. For a description of TPC's current law and current policy baselines, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/T11‐0270
(3) Tax units with negative cash income are excluded from the lowest income class but are included in the totals. For a description of cash income, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxModel/income.cfm
(4) Includes both filing and non‐filing units but excludes those that are dependents of other tax units.
(5) After‐tax income is cash income less: individual income tax net of refundable credits; corporate income tax; payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare); and estate tax.
(6) Average federal tax (includes individual and corporate income tax, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, and the estate tax) as a percentage of average cash income.