The Retirement Prospects of Divorced Women
by Barbara A. Butrica and Karen E. Smith*
For decades, policymakers have discussed how to remedy the high poverty rates of older widows. Yet older
divorced women are more likely to be poor than older widows, and historical divorce and remarriage trends
suggest that in the future a larger share of retired women will be divorced. This article uses the Social Security
Administration’s Modeling Income in the Near Term (version 6) to project the retirement resources and wellbeing of divorced women. We find that Social Security benefits and retirement incomes are projected to increase
for divorced women and that their poverty rates are projected to decline, due in large part to women’s increasing
lifetime earnings. However, not all divorced women will be equally well off; economic well-being in retirement
varies by Social Security benefit type.
Introduction
The high poverty rates of older widows have drawn
the attention of policymakers and the media, and widows have been the focus of much of the research on
older women’s economic well-being (Angel, Jimenez,
and Angel 2007; McGarry and Schoeni 2000; Sevak,
Weir, and Willis 2003/2004; Weir and Willis 2000).
However, among older women, those who are divorced
have dramatically lower incomes and higher poverty
rates than widows and most other Social Security
beneficiaries (Weaver 1997). According to recent data,
around 20 percent of divorced women aged 65 or older
live in poverty, compared with 18 percent of nevermarried women and 15 percent of widowed women.
Differences in poverty rates are even larger at the
oldest ages—22 percent of divorced women aged 80
or older are poor, compared with only 17 percent of
never-married women and 15 percent of widowed
women (SSA 2010).
Older women are much more likely to be married
or widowed than they are to be divorced or never
married. Currently, only about 11 percent of women
aged 65 or older are divorced and only 4 percent have
never married. By contrast, 41 percent of women those
ages are widowed (SSA 2010). Recent trends suggest
that those proportions could change in the future.
Divorce rates increased sharply between the 1960s
and early 1970s. After falling slightly, rates leveled
off in the mid-1980s; but in a historical context, they
were still relatively high (Ahlburg and De Vita 1992;
DaVanzo and Rahman 1993; Goldstein 1999; Norton
and Miller 1992; Stevenson and Wolfers 2007). Most
individuals who divorce will remarry, but the remarriage rate has decreased, and second marriages also
often end in divorce (Norton and Miller 1992).
Although the divorce rate has leveled off and may
even have begun to reverse (NCHS 1991; Stevenson
and Wolfers 2007; Tejada-Vera and Sutton 2010),
Selected Abbreviations
GenX
generation X
MINT6
Modeling Income in the Near Term,
version 6
primary insurance amount
Survey of Income and Program Participation
Social Security Administration
PIA
SIPP
SSA
* Barbara Butrica and Karen Smith are senior research associates at the Urban Institute.
This research was funded by the Social Security Administration (contract no. SS00-06-60113 and order no. SS00-10-31234).
Note: Contents of this publication are not copyrighted; any items may be reprinted, but citation of the Social Security Bulletin as the
source is requested. To view the Bulletin online, visit our website at http://www.socialsecurity.gov/policy. The findings and conclusions
presented in the Bulletin are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Social Security Administration or the
Urban Institute, its trustees, or funders.
Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 72, No. 1, 2012
11
the characteristics of divorce have been changing.
In particular, the duration of marriages ending in
divorce appears to have declined among more recent
cohorts of women. Among first marriages, the share
of women who were still married at their fifth anniversary declined from 93.0 percent for those married
1960–1964 to 87.1 percent for those married
1990–1994. The share of those who remained married
at their tenth anniversaries declined from 82.8 percent
for those married 1960–1964 to 74.5 percent for those
married 1990–1994 (Kreider and Ellis 2011).
These divorce and marriage-duration trends suggest
that, over time, increasing proportions of women will
be divorced when they reach retirement, which has
implications for their retirement security generally and
their Social Security benefits specifically. A number of
studies have already documented the potential effect
of divorce and marriage trends on Social Security
benefits for future women retirees (Butrica and Iams
2000; Harrington Meyer, Wolf, and Himes 2006;
Tamborini and Whitman 2007; Tamborini, Iams, and
Whitman 2009). Because divorced retirees might
receive Social Security divorced-spouse benefits,
widow benefits, or neither, a divorced woman’s marital
status does not necessarily reflect the type of benefit
she is eligible to receive (Weaver 1997); yet the type of
benefit she receives will dramatically affect her economic well-being in retirement. This article considers
how divorced women’s projected retirement incomes,
Social Security benefits, and poverty rates vary by
benefit type. It also updates Butrica and Iams (2000)
with projections generated by an updated microsimulation model.
We find that Social Security benefits and retirement
incomes are projected to increase for future divorced
women and that their poverty rates are projected
to decline, due in large part to women’s increasing
lifetime earnings. But not all divorced women will
be equally well off. In particular, divorced women
who receive only retired-worker benefits are a diverse
group. For example, those without marriages lasting at least 10 years (the requirement to qualify for
benefits based on an ex-husband’s earnings history)
are expected to have low retirement incomes and high
poverty rates. That group is projected to represent one
in three divorced women in the generation X (GenX)
cohorts (born 1966–1975). Others will have earnings
histories that will qualify them for basic retiredworker benefits that are greater than one-half of their
ex-husbands’ basic retired-worker benefits. That group
12
is projected to represent one in four divorced women
in the GenX cohorts, and is expected to have the highest retirement incomes and lowest poverty rates among
all divorced women.
Social Security Benefits for
Divorced Women
Depending on their circumstances, divorced Social
Security beneficiaries can receive either retired-worker
benefits, which are based on the individual’s own
covered earnings history; auxiliary benefits, which are
determined by a living or deceased former spouse’s
covered earnings history; or a combination of both.
Thus, divorced women receive Social Security benefits
either as retired workers, divorced spouses, or surviving divorced spouses. They can also receive widow
benefits from a prior marriage that ended in widowhood. Retired-worker benefits are computed by wage
indexing annual earnings over a divorced woman’s
working life, then calculating her average indexed
monthly earnings (AIME) to determine her primary
insurance amount (PIA)—the benefit payable at the
full retirement age, which currently is 66. Divorced
women with 40 or more quarters of coverage over
their work lives are considered fully insured and may
receive retired-worker benefits.
Auxiliary benefits are computed for each eligible
previous marriage reported by a divorced woman.
Any person with a previous marriage that ended in
divorce is eligible if the ex-spouse was fully insured
for Social Security benefits and the marriage lasted
at least 10 years. A person with a previous marriage
that ended in widowhood is also eligible if the spouse
was fully insured.1 Auxiliary benefits are based on
the earnings history of the ex-spouse, deceased exspouse, or deceased spouse from each marriage. If
an ex-husband is alive when a woman claims Social
Security benefits on his earnings record, the auxiliary benefit (also known as divorced-spouse benefit)
is effectively equal to one-half of the ex-husband’s
PIA.2 If an ex-husband is deceased when a woman
claims benefits, the auxiliary benefit (also known as a
surviving-divorced-spouse benefit) is effectively equal
to the deceased ex-husband’s full PIA. Likewise, for
a marriage that ended in widowhood, the auxiliary
benefit (also known as a widow benefit) is effectively
equal to the deceased husband’s full PIA.
After computing an auxiliary benefit for each
eligible marriage, the Social Security Administration
http://www.socialsecurity.gov/policy
(SSA) selects the highest auxiliary benefit and compares it with the divorced woman’s own retired-worker
benefit. If she is not entitled to a retired-worker benefit,
she receives the full auxiliary benefit as a divorced
spouse, surviving divorced spouse, or widow beneficiary. If she is entitled to a retired-worker benefit that
is less than the auxiliary benefit, she is “dually entitled” and SSA supplements her retired-worker benefit
with the difference between her retired-worker benefit
and the full auxiliary benefit to which she would be
entitled. Finally, if she is entitled to a retired-worker
benefit that exceeds the auxiliary benefit, she receives
only the retired-worker benefit.
Thus, a divorced woman’s Social Security retirement benefit depends not only on her own earnings
history, but also to a large extent on her marital history
and the earnings histories of her previous spouses.
Furthermore, a divorced woman with multiple marriages could receive an auxiliary benefit from any of
her former spouses. Although she describes herself
as divorced, at retirement she may receive a divorced
spouse benefit, surviving divorced spouse benefit, or
widow benefit from Social Security. In cases where
none of her marriages ended in widowhood or in
divorce after 10 years, a divorced woman will be ineligible for any auxiliary benefits. This article will show
that the type of benefit a divorced woman receives
will dramatically influence her economic well-being
in retirement.
Methods
We assess the retirement prospects of divorced women
using the latest version of SSA’s Modeling Income in
the Near Term, version 6 (MINT6). MINT6 uses data
from the 2001 and 2004 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) matched to Social Security
administrative earnings and benefit data through
2008 as the basis for its projections. For individuals
born from 1926 through 1975, MINT6 projects each
person’s marital changes, mortality, entry to and exit
from Social Security Disability Insurance rolls, and
age at first receipt of Social Security retirement benefits.3 It also projects family income including Social
Security benefits, pension income, asset income,
earnings, Supplemental Security Income, income
from coresident household members, and imputed
rental income.4 Asset balances in retirement accounts
and financial assets outside of retirement accounts in
MINT6’s starting SIPP sample are adjusted to align
Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 72, No. 1, 2012
with distributions in the 2004 Survey of Consumer
Finances.5
MINT6 is ideal for this analysis because it directly
measures the experiences of survey respondents as
of the early 2000s, thus accounting for nearly the full
working careers of those born before 1946, the first
half of the work lives of the baby boom cohort, and
first third of the working lives of the GenX cohort.
MINT6 projects their income and characteristics into
the future, adjusting for expected demographic and
socioeconomic changes. MINT6 also accounts for
major changes in the growth of economy-wide real
earnings, the distribution of earnings both between
and within birth cohorts, and the composition of the
retiree population. All these factors will affect the
retirement incomes of future retirees.
We separately analyze four 10-year birth cohorts we
label war babies (born 1936–1945), leading boomers
(born 1946–1955), trailing boomers (born 1956–1965),
and GenXers (born 1966–1975).6 We analyze the
characteristics, Social Security benefits, and total
income of divorced women in these cohorts at age 70.
We exclude divorced women who are projected to ever
receive Social Security disability benefits. Because of
the legislated increase in the full retirement age, the
increase in the delayed retirement credit, the elimination of the retirement earnings test after reaching full
retirement age, and changes in pension and health
insurance incentives, older adults are increasingly
likely to work into their late 60s. Given these trends,
we report total income at age 70 to better represent the
characteristics and economic well-being of those who
have actually retired. We report all income projections
in 2011 price-adjusted dollars.
Results
We begin by describing the projected marital status of
women at age 70 to identify the prevalence of divorced
women in the future. Then, we describe the projected
benefit type of divorced women, accounting for
changing trends in marital status and earnings of all
marital partners. Those projections show how changes
in women’s earnings affect the distribution of benefits
by type over time. Next, we describe the projected
average monthly Social Security benefit of divorced
women by benefit type. This is followed by a description of total retirement income from all major sources.
Finally, we describe the projected poverty status of
divorced women by benefit type and cohort.
13
Projected Marital Status
Over time, the percentage of 70-year-old women who
are married is projected to remain constant; however,
the composition of their nonmarried counterparts is
expected to change dramatically. Among war baby
women at age 70, 58 percent are expected to be
married, 16 percent divorced, 4 percent never married, and 22 percent widowed (Table 1). However, the
distribution of 70-year-old women by marital status is
expected to change in later cohorts as life expectancies rise and greater percentages of older women never
marry or divorce and never remarry. MINT6 projects
increases in the shares who are divorced and never
married, and a decline in the share who are widowed.
As a result, future cohorts of 70-year-old nonmarried
women are most likely to be divorced. Among GenX
women, for example, 20 percent are expected to be
divorced at age 70, 13 percent widowed, and 10 percent never married.
A woman’s marital status does not necessarily
determine the type of Social Security benefit she
receives. As discussed above, a divorced woman
could receive an auxiliary benefit from a living or
deceased (ex-)husband. If none of her previous marriages ended in widowhood or in divorce after at least
10 years of marriage, however, she is ineligible for any
auxiliary benefit.
MINT6 projects that the proportion of divorced
women at age 70 with any 10-year marriage will
decline from 80 percent of war babies to 70 percent
of leading boomers and GenXers (Chart 1). Consistent with other researchers (Harrington Meyer, Wolf,
and Himes 2006; Tamborini and Whitman 2007;
Tamborini, Iams, and Whitman 2009), we expect that
over time, fewer divorced women will be eligible for
auxiliary benefits based on their ex-husbands’ earnings records.
Projected Social Security Benefit Type
Trends in shorter marriages and increases in women’s
labor force participation and earnings will affect the
type of Social Security benefits that future cohorts of
divorced women receive. Table 2 shows the projected
distribution of divorced women at age 70 by benefit
type, and how the distribution is expected to change
over time. Among divorced women in the war baby
cohort, MINT6 projects that 64 percent will receive
only retired-worker benefits, 26 percent will be dually
entitled, 5 percent will receive only auxiliary benefits,
and 5 percent will be ineligible for any Social Security
benefits.
Between the war baby and leading boomer cohorts,
two sociodemographic shifts are expected to take
place. First, the share of marriages lasting at least
10 years is projected to decline dramatically (Chart 1).
Consequently, for divorced women, leading boomers are less likely than war babies to be eligible for
auxiliary benefits from their ex-spouses; the share
of retired-worker-only beneficiaries projected to be
ineligible for auxiliary benefits increases from 37 percent among war babies to 58 percent among leading
boomers. Second, women’s labor force participation is
projected to increase between these cohorts (Blau and
Kahn 2007; Goldin 2006). As a result, for divorced
women, leading boomers are more likely (32 percent)
than war babies (26 percent) to be dually entitled
(receiving both auxiliary and retired-worker benefits)
at age 70.
Between the leading and trailing boomer cohorts,
two different sociodemographic developments are
Table 1.
Projected marital status of women at age 70, by birth cohort (percentage distribution)
Marital status
Total
Divorced
Never married
Widowed
Married
War babies
(1936–1945)
Leading boomers
(1946–1955)
Trailing boomers
(1956–1965)
GenXers
(1966–1975)
100
16
4
22
58
100
20
6
15
58
100
20
8
13
59
100
20
10
13
57
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT6.
NOTES: Sample excludes women projected ever to receive Disability Insurance benefits.
Rounded components of percentage distributions do not necessarily sum to 100.
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expected. First, the gap between men’s and women’s
earnings is projected to narrow as women’s earnings
increase and men’s earnings fall off (Blau and Kahn
2007; Goldin 2006). Second, life expectancies are projected to increase, which means that trailing boomers
are less likely than leading boomers to be widowed at
age 70. As a result of those two trends, trailing boomers are more likely than leading boomers to receive
only retired-worker benefits at age 70 because their
PIAs only have to exceed half their living ex-husbands’ PIAs instead of their deceased (ex-)husbands’
entire PIAs. Among divorced women, MINT6 projects
that 61 percent of leading boomers will receive only
retired-worker benefits, increasing to 67 percent of
trailing boomers.
Those developments are projected to continue
beyond the trailing boomer cohort. Among GenX
divorced women, MINT6 projects that 70 percent
will receive only retired-worker benefits at age 70,
23 percent will be dually entitled, 3 percent will
receive only auxiliary benefits, and 5 percent will be
ineligible for any Social Security benefits.
It is worth highlighting the MINT6 projections
of the shares of divorced women who will receive
retired-worker benefits at age 70 (including the dually
entitled): 90 percent of war babies, 93 percent of
leading boomers, 94 percent of trailing boomers, and
93 percent of GenXers. The fact that over 90 percent
of divorced women in all cohorts are projected to be
retired-worker beneficiaries suggests that divorced
women have long participated in the labor force in
large numbers; but because their earnings are expected
to increase significantly over time, more are projected
to receive only retired-worker benefits (and fewer will
also receive auxiliary benefits).
A divorced woman’s Social Security benefit can
be based on her ex-husband’s earnings alone, her
deceased husband’s or deceased ex-husband’s earnings alone, her own earnings alone, or a combination
of earnings. Therefore, benefit amounts, total income,
and poverty levels are likely to vary substantially
across benefit types. For example, the situation of
a divorced woman receiving only retired-worker
benefits because her PIA is more than one-half her
ex-husband’s PIA will differ from that of one receiving only retired-worker benefits because her PIA
is more than her deceased husband’s or deceased
ex-husband’s full PIA. For the latter woman, the
requirement for receiving only retired-worker benefits is much more difficult to satisfy because wives’
Chart 1.
Projected percentage of divorced women at age 70 to have at least one marriage last at least 10 years,
by birth cohort
100
Percent
90
80
80
70
70
68
60
70
50
40
30
20
10
0
War babies
(1936–1945)
Leading boomers
(1946–1955)
Trailing boomers
(1956–1965)
GenXers
(1966–1975)
Birth cohort
SOURCE: Authors’ calculations using MINT6.
Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 72, No. 1, 2012
15
earnings tend to be lower than their husbands’ earnings. Despite the narrowing gap, women’s earnings
on average remain lower than men’s (SSA 2011,
Table 4.B6). Finally, both of these women are likely
to differ from a divorced woman who receives only
retired-worker benefits because her former marriage
lasted less than 10 years.
Table 2 also reports, for each benefit type, the
projected distribution of divorced women according
to the spouse whose earnings record would provide
the highest auxiliary benefit (living ex-husband,
deceased husband or ex-husband, no qualifying marriage).7 Among war babies, more than half of retiredworker-only beneficiaries will receive those benefits
because their own PIAs are greater than one-half of
their living ex-husbands’ PIAs. Another 11 percent
will receive those benefits because their own PIAs
are greater than their deceased (ex-)husbands’ full
PIAs, and 37 percent will receive only retired-worker
benefits because they do not have a qualifying
marriage. The composition of retired-worker-only
beneficiaries is expected to change significantly
over time because of changes in women’s earnings
and divorce patterns (Goldin 2006). Among GenX
divorced women who are projected to receive only
retired-worker benefits, 37 percent will have PIAs
that exceed one-half of their living ex-husbands’
PIAs, 12 percent will have higher PIAs than their
deceased (ex-)husbands, and over half will not have
a qualifying marriage.
Although it is not uncommon for divorced women
to have PIAs that are greater than one-half of their
ex-husbands’ PIAs, it is less common for them to
have PIAs that exceed their deceased (ex-)husbands’
full PIAs. Consequently, between 70 percent and
86 percent of dually entitled beneficiaries qualify
for such benefits based on the higher deceased (ex-)
husbands’ earnings.
In summary, divorced women are projected to rely
increasingly on their own retired-worker benefits and
decreasingly on auxiliary benefits based on the earnings of their ex-husbands or deceased (ex-)husbands.
Table 2.
Projected Social Security benefit status of divorced women at age 70, by benefit type, spouse who would
provide the highest auxiliary benefit, and birth cohort (percentage distribution)
War babies
(1936–1945)
Leading boomers
(1946–1955)
Trailing boomers
(1956–1965)
GenXers
(1966–1975)
All divorced women
Retired worker only
Dually entitled
Auxiliary only
Nonbeneficiary
100
64
26
5
5
100
61
32
3
4
100
67
27
2
4
100
70
23
3
5
Retired worker only
Living ex-husband a
Deceased (ex-)husband b
No auxiliary benefit c
100
52
11
37
100
24
18
58
100
27
15
58
100
37
12
51
Dually entitled
Living ex-husband a
Deceased (ex-)husband b
100
27
73
100
14
86
100
22
79
100
30
70
Auxiliary only
Living ex-husband a
Deceased (ex-)husband b
100
57
43
100
53
47
100
70
30
100
56
44
Benefit type
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT6.
NOTES: Sample excludes women projected ever to receive Disability Insurance benefits.
Rounded components of percentage distributions do not necessarily sum to 100.
a. The highest auxiliary benefit among all eligible marriages is (or would be) based on a marriage that ended in divorce.
b. The highest auxiliary benefit among all eligible marriages is (or would be) based on a marriage that ended either in widowhood or in
divorce, with the ex-husband dying before his ex-wife received benefits.
c. None of the previous marriages ended in widowhood or divorce after at least 10 years of marriage.
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Projected Social Security Benefit Levels
Table 3 shows how projected monthly Social Security
benefit amounts differ according to benefit type.8
Given the way Social Security determines benefit
levels, it is not surprising that average benefits for
divorced women in all cohorts are projected to be
highest for those whose deceased (ex-)husbands’ earnings provide the highest auxiliary benefits (for dually
entitled women), or would provide the highest auxiliary benefits if they were eligible (for retired-worker
beneficiaries). Women in the retired-worker-only subgroup have higher PIAs than their deceased (ex-)husbands—an uncommon occurrence; among war babies,
monthly benefits are expected to average $1,200 in
2011 dollars. Women in the dually entitled subgroup
also have relatively high lifetime earnings, but their
PIAs are lower than their deceased (ex-)husbands’
PIAs. As a result, Social Security benefits for these
women are equal to the full amount of their deceased
(ex-)husbands’ PIAs, unless actuarially adjusted
for early or delayed retirement; among war babies,
monthly benefits are expected to average $1,390.
By contrast, MINT6 projects that average benefits
will be lowest for divorced women at age 70 who are
dually entitled because their own PIAs, although positive, are less than one-half their living ex-husbands’
PIAs (for example, such benefits average $770 for war
babies). Social Security benefits for these women are
equal to half their ex-husbands’ PIA, unless actuarially
adjusted. Even retired-worker-only beneficiaries with
no qualifying marriages are expected to receive higher
average monthly Social Security benefits ($1,100
among war babies). Across cohorts, the ranking of
benefit amount by benefit type remains unchanged,
even as average amounts increase.
Average benefit amounts increase over time primarily because women’s earnings have increased, but
also because the Social Security taxable maximum
earnings amount has risen, so that higher earnings
are counted when SSA calculates benefits. Additionally, MINT6 assumes positive real wage growth in the
future. Taken together, average Social Security benefits are expected to increase 38 percent overall, from
$1,100 per month for war babies to $1,520 per month
for GenXers. MINT6 projects increases over time
in average Social Security benefits for all divorced
women, regardless of their benefit type.
Although divorced spouse benefits are lower on
average than surviving divorced spouse benefits,
many divorced women will become eligible for the
higher benefits if their ex-husbands die. Chart 2 shows
projected average Social Security benefits for divorced
Table 3.
Projected average monthly Social Security benefit amount for divorced women at age 70, by benefit type,
spouse who would provide the highest auxiliary benefit, and birth cohort (in 2011 dollars)
War babies
(1936–1945)
Leading boomers
(1946–1955)
Trailing boomers
(1956–1965)
GenXers
(1966–1975)
All divorced women
1,100
1,310
1,370
1,520
Retired worker only
Living ex-husband a
Deceased (ex-)husband b
No auxiliary benefit c
1,150
1,180
1,200
1,100
1,280
1,250
1,470
1,230
1,380
1,430
1,530
1,310
1,570
1,660
1,680
1,480
Dually entitled
Living ex-husband a
Deceased (ex-)husband b
1,220
770
1,390
1,520
960
1,620
1,560
950
1,730
1,610
1,110
1,820
d
d
d
d
Benefit type
Auxiliary only
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT6.
NOTES: Sample excludes women projected ever to receive Disability Insurance benefits.
a. The highest auxiliary benefit among all eligible marriages is (or would be) based on a marriage that ended in divorce.
b. The highest auxiliary benefit among all eligible marriages is (or would be) based on a marriage that ended either in widowhood or in
divorce, with the ex-husband dying before his ex-wife received benefits.
c. None of the previous marriages ended in widowhood or divorce after at least 10 years of marriage.
d. The projected sample size is too small to provide reliable information.
Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 72, No. 1, 2012
17
women whose highest auxiliary benefit (assuming
they qualify for one) would come from an ex-husband
who is still living. For those in the war baby cohort,
average benefits are $1,080 per month. If their exhusbands die, their average benefits are projected to
increase 22 percent to $1,320 per month. For those in
the GenX cohort, average monthly benefits are projected to increase by 25 percent if their ex-husbands
die, from $1,530 to $1,920. The transition from a
divorced spouse to a surviving divorced spouse would
increase benefit amounts for 54 percent of war babies,
60 percent of leading boomers, and 65 percent of late
boomers. Among GenXers, that share would drop
slightly, to 61 percent.
MINT6 projects that total income of all divorced
women in the war baby cohort will average $47,400
at age 70; however, there are some striking differences by benefit type. For example, those projected
to receive only retired-worker benefits at age 70
because their own PIAs would exceed one-half their
living ex-husbands’ PIAs are expected to have the
highest income in all cohorts. Among war babies,
their projected total income averages $54,100. By
contrast, nonbeneficiaries are expected to have the
lowest income in all cohorts. Among war babies, their
projected total income averages only $17,200. Interestingly, projected incomes for beneficiaries are very
similar across benefit types in the war baby cohort;
they range from $41,100 for dually entitled beneficiaries whose living ex-husbands’ earnings records
provide the highest auxiliary benefit to $54,100 for
retired-worker-only beneficiaries whose living exhusbands’ records would have provided the highest
auxiliary benefit had these women been eligible.
Projected Retirement Income
Although Social Security benefits comprise 90 percent
or more of total income for nearly one-third of beneficiaries (SSA 2010), the majority of retirees receive
additional sources of income. Table 4 shows projected
average total income for divorced women at age 70.
Total income includes income from assets, earnings,
imputed rent, Supplemental Security Income, Social
Security benefits, and pensions.
Between the war baby and GenX cohorts, total
income for all divorced women is projected to increase
59 percent, from $47,400 to $75,500. MINT6 projects
that retired-worker-only beneficiaries whose living
Chart 2.
Projected average monthly Social Security benefit for divorced women at age 70 before and after
their ex-husbands die, and percentage of divorced women whose benefits are higher as survivors,
by birth cohort
3,000
Percent with higher
survivor benefit
Monthly Social Security benefit
(in 2011 dollars)
80
Ex-husband
alive
65
61
60
60
54
1,920
2,000
1,680
1,530
1,480
1,320
1,080
40
1,290
1,150
Ex-husband
deceased
Percentage of
divorced
women with
higher benefits
as a survivor
1,000
20
0
0
War babies
(1936–1945)
Leading boomers
(1946–1955)
Trailing boomers
(1956–1965)
GenXers
(1966–1975)
Birth cohort
SOURCE: Authors’ calculations using MINT6.
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ex-husbands would have provided the highest auxiliary benefit will experience the largest increases in
total income—from $54,100 among war babies to
$104,200 among GenXers. Furthermore, projected
incomes by benefit type vary much more for GenXers
than for war babies.
Poverty Rates
Table 5 shows the projected poverty rates of divorced
women by benefit type and birth cohort. As with
the Census Bureau’s official poverty measure, our
measure of income for determining poverty excludes
imputed rental income and includes income from
coresident family members. Among war babies,
14 percent of all divorced women are projected to be
poor at age 70. In all cohorts, projected poverty rates
are highest for those ineligible for Social Security benefits and lowest for dually entitled beneficiaries whose
deceased (ex-)husbands provide the highest auxiliary
benefit. In the war baby cohort, nearly two-thirds of
nonbeneficiaries are expected to be poor, compared
with only 2 percent of dually entitled widow and
surviving divorced-spouse beneficiaries.
Overall poverty rates are projected to decline by
one-half across cohorts—from 14 percent for the war
baby cohort to 7 percent for the GenX cohort. At least
part of the projected decline in poverty rates is due to
assumed positive real wage growth in the future. Most
of the decline, however, can be explained by historic
gains in women’s labor force participation and earnings. MINT6 projects that poverty rates for nearly all
divorced women will decline over time.9 Even so, in the
GenX cohort, 44 percent of nonbeneficiaries, 10 percent
of dually entitled divorced-spouse beneficiaries, and
7 percent of retired-worker-only beneficiaries without
qualifying marriages are projected to be poor at age 70.
Conclusions
Historically, divorced women have had the highest
poverty rates among all aged women in the United
States. Higher divorce rates mean that a larger share of
future seniors will enter retirement divorced. Absent
other changes, this trend could increase poverty rates
for future seniors. However, important sociodemographic changes will positively affect the economic
well-being of future cohorts of divorced women.
Our microsimulation results show that the historic
increases in female labor force participation and earnings are likely to increase future incomes and reduce
future poverty rates for older divorced women.
Table 4.
Projected average total annual income for divorced women at age 70, by benefit type, spouse who would
provide the highest auxiliary benefit, and birth cohort (2011 dollars)
War babies
(1936–1945)
Leading boomers
(1946–1955)
Trailing boomers
(1956–1965)
GenXers
(1966–1975)
All divorced women
47,400
57,500
68,100
75,500
Retired worker only
Living ex-husband a
Deceased (ex-)husband b
No auxiliary benefit c
50,400
54,100
51,800
44,800
61,500
73,800
61,400
56,400
75,400
87,400
58,200
74,300
82,500
104,200
73,200
68,700
Dually entitled
Living ex-husband a
Deceased (ex-)husband b
45,200
41,100
46,700
54,900
64,000
53,300
57,200
47,500
59,900
69,300
66,900
70,300
d
d
d
d
17,200
18,600
17,400
28,300
Benefit type
Auxiliary only
Nonbeneficiary
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT6.
NOTES: Sample excludes women projected ever to receive Disability Insurance benefits.
Rounded components of percentage distributions do not necessarily sum to 100.
a. The highest auxiliary benefit among all eligible marriages is (or would be) based on a marriage that ended in divorce.
b. The highest auxiliary benefit among all eligible marriages is (or would be) based on a marriage that ended either in widowhood or in
divorce, with the ex-husband dying before his ex-wife received benefits.
c. None of the previous marriages ended in widowhood or divorce after at least 10 years of marriage.
d. The projected sample size is too small to provide reliable information.
Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 72, No. 1, 2012
19
Table 5.
Projected poverty rates for divorced women at age 70, by benefit type, spouse who would provide the
highest auxiliary benefit, and birth cohort (percent)
War babies
(1936–1945)
Leading boomers
(1946–1955)
Trailing boomers
(1956–1965)
GenXers
(1966–1975)
All divorced women
14
11
9
7
Retired worker only
Living ex-husband a
Deceased (ex-)husband b
No auxiliary benefit c
13
10
16
17
12
8
11
14
8
5
7
9
4
2
3
7
Dually entitled
Living ex-husband a
Deceased (ex-)husband b
6
16
2
3
11
2
4
11
2
4
10
2
d
d
d
d
63
57
66
44
Benefit type
Auxiliary only
Nonbeneficiary
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT6.
NOTES: Sample excludes women projected ever to receive Disability Insurance benefits.
a. The highest auxiliary benefit among all eligible marriages is (or would be) based on a marriage that ended in divorce.
b. The highest auxiliary benefit among all eligible marriages is (or would be) based on a marriage that ended either in widowhood or in
divorce, with the ex-husband dying before his ex-wife received benefits.
c. None of the previous marriages ended in widowhood or divorce after at least 10 years of marriage.
d. The projected sample size is too small to provide reliable information.
A key finding of this article is that not all divorced
retiree women are the same. Social Security auxiliary
benefits to divorced women with qualifying marriages
are determined using different criteria depending
on whether the ex-husband is dead or alive. All else
equal, divorced women with qualifying marriages
stand to improve their economic circumstances when
their former spouses die because Social Security benefits are more generous when based on the earnings
records of deceased ex-spouses than on those of living
ex-spouses.
Divorced women who receive only retired-worker
benefits at age 70 have the highest average total
income because of their strong labor force attachment
and earnings histories. Over time, they have increasingly accumulated more pensions, savings, and greater
Social Security benefits based on their own work
records. As these retired-worker-only beneficiaries
become a growing share of divorced women in the
future, they will drive the gains in income growth
among divorced women.
Divorced women who remain at high risk of
poverty in old age include nonbeneficiaries and those
receiving only auxiliary benefits. Those women have
very little attachment to the labor force and accumulate no Social Security benefits on their own earnings.
20
Policy options such as caregiver credits that recognize
women’s care giving role in supporting children could
boost retirement incomes for many of those vulnerable women (Favreault 2010). Such options could
prove especially important for divorced women whose
child-rearing responsibilities continue or increase after
divorce and who receive no spousal income support.
Policies that help single mothers enter or remain in the
labor force can also help boost family incomes both
before and after retirement.
Notes
Widow(er)s must have been married for at least
9 months to be eligible for widow(er) benefits. However,
the 9-month requirement is waived under certain circumstances, such as for a woman who could reasonably expect
the marriage to last at least 9 months at the outset and
whose husband’s death was accidental.
1
We say “effectively” because Social Security benefits
are reduced for early claiming and increased for delayed
claiming.
2
MINT6 also projects outcomes for individuals born
from 1976 through 2070 using a somewhat different
approach from that used for the core cohorts born from
1926 through 1975. However, this analysis is only concerned with individuals born from 1936 through 1975.
3
http://www.socialsecurity.gov/policy
We annuitize assets in MINT6 to represent the potential, rather than actual, income from assets since most
retirees do not convert their financial assets into annuities.
MINT6 takes the stock of wealth in nonpension, nonhousing assets and retirement accounts and (1) annually decays
it based on age-wealth patterns in the SIPP to represent
the spend-down of assets over retirement; and (2) converts
assets into income by calculating the annuity a couple or
individuals could buy if they annuitized 80 percent of their
total wealth. Thus, asset income is derived from a series of
annuity estimates based on a declining stock of wealth in
retirement. Also, we calculate imputed rental income as a
3-percent real rate of return on home equity.
4
For more detailed information about the MINT model,
see Smith and others (2010), Smith and others (2007), and
Smith, Cashin, and Favreault (2005). Further sources of
information are available at http://www.socialsecurity.gov
/policy/about/mint.html.
5
Favreault, Melissa. 2010. “Workers with Low Social Security Benefits: Implications for Reform.” The Retirement
Policy Program Brief Series No. 29. Washington, DC:
Urban Institute Press.
Goldin, Claudia. 2006. “The Quiet Revolution that Transformed Women’s Employment, Education and Family.”
American Economic Review 96(2): 1–21.
Goldstein, Joshua R. 1999. “The Leveling of Divorce in the
United States.” Demography 36(3): 409–414.
Harrington Meyer, Madonna, Douglas A. Wolf, and Christine L. Himes. 2006. “Declining Eligibility for Social
Security Spouse and Widow Benefits in the United
States?” Research on Aging 28(2): 240–260.
Kreider, Rose M., and Renee Ellis. 2011. “Number, Timing,
and Duration of Marriages and Divorces: 2009.” Current
Population Reports P70-125. Washington, DC: Census
Bureau.
The baby boom cohort is typically represented as those
born between 1946 through 1964. For analytical purposes,
however, we define the baby boom cohort as those born
between 1946 and 1965.
McGarry, Kathleen, and Robert F. Schoeni. 2000. “Social
Security, Economic Growth, and the Rise in Elderly
Widows’ Independence in the Twentieth Century.”
Demography 37(2): 221–236.
By definition, retired-worker-only beneficiaries do not
receive auxiliary benefits. However, we show results for
retired-worker-only beneficiaries by the spouse who would
provide the highest auxiliary benefit if the divorced woman
were eligible.
[NCHS] National Center for Health Statistics. 1991.
“Annual Summary of Births, Marriages, Divorces, and
Deaths: United States, 1990.” Monthly Vital Statistics
Report 39(13). Hyattsville, MD: Public Health Service.
6
7
The projected sample size for auxiliary-only beneficiaries is too small to provide reliable information.
8
The only exceptions are dually entitled divorced women
whose deceased (ex-)husbands provide the highest auxiliary
benefit (their projected poverty rates remain at 2 percent
across all cohorts) and auxiliary beneficiaries.
9
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http://www.socialsecurity.gov/policy