Security Issues in the High North
Norwegian Perspectives
Author: Defense Counselor Keith Eikenes
Date: March 24th 2010
Distribution Statement A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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NATO expansion
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Background – High North
• Climate change (globally):
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–
–
–
–
Warmer, wilder and wetter (dryer)
Rising sea levels
Increasing sea temperatures
Steeper temperature rise in the Artic/Antarctic
Not a linear change in the Artic/Antarctic
• Growing energy requirements
• The Russian political orientation
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The Arctic Ocean
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Melting of the Polar Ice Cap
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September 2008
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New Shipping Routes
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Contested territorial claims
– NATO’s Area of Responsibility:
• North of Tropic of Cancer to
• the North Pole.
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The Question of Energy
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Growing gas demand in USA and Europe
Europe
(born per year)
US LNG
imports
Demand
(bcm per year)
Production
700
180
490
135
USA
2005
2015
2025
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Europe
290
1985 2002 2020
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OIL/GAS – Transportation lines
Today
Barents Sea
Offshore oil and gas
transportation in the
Barents Sea (2010)
GAS PIPELINE
GAS ON SHIP
OIL ON SHIP
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OIL/GAS – Transportation lines
Expected in 2020
Barents Sea
Offshore oil and gas
transportation in the
Barents Sea (2020)
GAS PIPELINE
GAS ON SHIP
OIL ON SHIP
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Energy exploration, Russian military activity and
nuclear waste in Europe’s richest fishing area
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Russia – developments
Shtokman
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Strategic interests
• NORWAY:
• Oil and gas
• Sea lanes and shipping
• Fisheries, minerals and other resources
• Environmental issues
• Cooperation with Russia
• Cooperate closely with Allies
• Secure and stable region
• RUSSIA:
– Strategic deterrence
– Blue water access
– Dominate own back yard
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Ways and Means
• Multilateral cooperation (NATO, EU, UN)
• United Nation’s Convention on Law of the Sea
• Control of sea lanes and energy transports
• Resource and environmental control
• Civil – military cooperation
• Intelligence and Surveillance
• Communications (CIS)
• Support for navigation (GIS, GPS etc)
• Search and Rescue (SAR)
• Balanced military presence
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Capabilities
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The need to adapt to a changing
environment
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