Introduction
L. Dean Simmons, JHU/APL
Symposium Chair
23 March 2010
Distribution Statement A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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On behalf of JHU/APL and CNA,
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Why Climate & Energy?
• US national security community has expressed
increasing concern regarding potential effects of
changes in climate and energy
– DNI’s 2009 Threat Assessment declares: “Climate
change, energy, global health and environmental
security are often intertwined, and while not traditionally
viewed as threats to U.S. national security, they will
affect Americans in major ways.”
– In Sep 2009, CIA established Center for Climate Change
and National Security to assess impacts of
“desertification, rising sea levels, population shifts &
heightened competition for natural resources”
– 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review discusses importance
of “Crafting a Strategic Approach to Climate and Energy”
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2010 Quadrennial Defense Review
• Crafting a Strategic Approach to
Climate and Energy
– Climate change and energy are two key
issues that will play a significant role in
shaping the future security environment
• Climate change will affect DoD in two
broad ways.
– First, climate change will shape the
operating environment, roles, and
missions that we undertake.
– Second, DoD will need to adjust to the
impacts of climate change on our
facilities and military capabilities.
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Observed Effects of Climate Change
• According to US Global Change Research
Program*, observed effects of climate change
include:
–
–
–
–
–
Rising temperature and sea level
Rapidly retreating glaciers
Thawing permafrost
Lengthening growing seasons
Lengthening ice-free seasons in the oceans and on
lakes and rivers
– Increases in heavy downpours
– Earlier snowmelt
– Alterations in river flows
*USGCRP integrates climate-related activities of Commerce, Defense, Energy, Interior, State,
Health & Human Services, Agriculture as well as NOAA, NASA, NSF, EPA, USAID, & the Smithsonian
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National Security Impacts of Climate
Change
• According to the 2010 QDR, “Assessments
conducted by the intelligence community
indicate that climate change could have
significant geopolitical impacts around the
world, contributing to
– Poverty,
– Environmental degradation, and the
– Further weakening of fragile governments.
• Climate change will
– Contribute to food and water scarcity,
– Increase the spread of disease, and
– May spur or exacerbate mass migration.”
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2010 Quadrennial Defense Review
• Energy security for the Department
means
– Having assured access to reliable
supplies of energy
– The ability to protect and deliver
sufficient energy to meet operational
needs.
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Principal Petroleum Consumers
bbl/yr per capita
Kbbl/day
National Use in Kbbl/day
Italy, 1743
Per Capita Use in bbl/yr
Iran, 1679
Iran, 8.9
United Kingdom, 1812
USA
France, 1981
China, 1.9
China
Mexico, 2078
USA, 24.8
Italy, 10.9
United
Kingdom,
10.9
Japan
Russia
Saudi Arabia, 2139
USA, 20687
South Korea, 2180
Germany
Japan, 14.8
France, 11.9
India
Russia, 7.2
Canada Mexico, 7.1
Brazil
Brazil, 2217
Germany, 12
South Korea
Canada, 2297
Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia, 28.9
Mexico
India, 2572
India, 0.8
France
Canada, 25.7
United Kingdom
Germany, 2692
China, 7201
Russia,
2811
Japan, 5198
Italy
South Korea, 16.3
Iran
Brazil, 4.3
• USA is world’s largest petroleum
consumer in absolute terms; China is 2nd,
India is 6th
• In per capita terms, USA ranks 3rd, China
& India are far behind (by factors of 13 &
30, respectively)
• Relative to USA, increase in per capita
consumption in China or India is leveraged
by a factor of 4 given their billion+ populations
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Principal Petroleum Producers
• USA produces ~40% of
the petroleum we
consume each day
• Remaining 60% must be
imported, sometimes from
nation’s whose interests
may differ markedly from
ours
–
–
–
–
–
Russia
Iran
China
Venezuela
Libya
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National Production in Thousands
Kbbl/d
of Barrels per Day
Azerbaijan, 850
India, 881
Indonesia, 1044
Other, 7903
Saudi Arabia, 10234
Qatar, 1136
Kazakhstan, 1445
United Kingdom, 1690
Angola, 1769
Russia, 9876
Libya, 1845
Iraq, 2094
Algeria, 2173
Brazil, 2279
USA, 8481
Nigeria, 2352
Iran, 4043
Norway, 2565
Kuwait, 2613
Venezuela, 2667
UAE,
2948
Canada, Mexico,
3501
3358
China,
3901
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Changes in Energy Supply & Demand
Source: ASPO-USA
Today’s Price >$80 per bbl
• Some observers argue that world is nearing “peak
production” – and hence that global demand will
soon begin to exceed supply
• Small changes in petroleum demand can lead to
substantial changes in price
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Imperatives for Naval Forces
1/2
• Effects of climate change will be keenly felt
by our nation’s naval forces
– Reduction in Arctic sea ice will provide new sea
routes and increased access to natural
resources
– Rising sea levels will affect
• 40% of world population who live within 100
kilometers (60 miles) of the sea coast (~3 billion
people)
• Installations used by Navy, Marines, and Coast
Guard
– Changes in frequency and severity of storms
will affect demand for humanitarian assistance
– Navy’s Task Force Climate Change established
to address such concerns
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Imperatives for Naval Forces
2/2
• Changes in petroleum supply – to include
source, quantity, and price – will have
significant effects on our nation’s naval
forces
– Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard
• Devote significant resources to securing U.S.
access to energy resources, especially
petroleum
• Consume large amounts of increasingly
expensive petroleum products themselves
– Navy’s Task Force Energy and Marine Corps
Expeditionary Energy Office established to
address such concerns
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Symposium Objective
• How will changes in climate and energy affect
future US Naval Forces?
– What will our naval forces need to be able to do?
– How should they be organized to accomplish those
tasks?
– How should they be equipped to accomplish those
tasks?
Geographic Regions
North &
South
America
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Europe
&
Africa
Asia &
the Pacific
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Symposium Logistics
 Entire symposium is being videotaped by Defense Media
 Open to the public; press participation
 Check-in required both days
 Questions and comments
– Open microphone for featured speakers
– Question cards for roundtables
– Electronic systems for comments and questions
 Instructions in your program
 UNCLASSIFIED input for ALL speakers and roundtables
o Comments only for featured speakers
o Comments AND questions for roundtables
 Symposium Proceedings available in August timeframe
 Distributed to all symposium participants and attendees
 Presentations will be posted soon, subject to authors’
restrictions
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