Task Force Climate Change Update
Rear Admiral Dave Titley
Director, Task Force Climate Change /
Oceanographer of the Navy
March 2011
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Arctic Sea Ice Continues to Melt & Thin
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Sea Level Rise
Accelerating Ice Sheet
Mass Loss
Satellite Observations
21st Century
Sea Level Rise
?
Tide Stations
The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009
University of Colorado, Boulder, 2009
Douglas, 1997
Observation:
~2mm/yr
Observation:
~3.1mm/yr
1870-1992
1993-2006
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Projection:
~2-6mm/yr
2007 IPCC AR4
Observation:
>50 Gt/yr
2009
Projection:
10-20mm/yr?
2010-2100
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Global Hurricane / Typhoon Energy
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.04% ~ 390 ppm
0%
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The Team…
NATIONAL
INTERNATIONAL
INTERAGENCY
DOD
SCIENTIFIC, ACADEMIC, & ANALYTICAL
Engaged nearly 450 individuals
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from over 125 organizations
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Adaptive Management
An iterative approach – NOT fire and forget
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Naval Studies Board Recommendations
Support ratification
of UNCLOS
Prepare for increase
in HA/DR, Arctic missions
Address partnership
demands
Address naval coastal
installation vulnerabilities
Address emerging technical
requirements (e.g. polar ops)
Support research &
development
Navy action is already underway
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Navy Arctic Strategic Objectives
Signed by CNO on 21 May 2010
I. Contribute to safety,
stability, & security
in the region
IV. Strengthen existing &
foster new cooperative
relationships in the region
II. Safeguard U.S. maritime
interests in the region
V. Ensure Navy forces
are capable and ready
III. Protect the American people,
our critical infrastructure,
& key resources
Towards the desired end state: a safe, stable, and secure Arctic
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ICEX-11
Aerial resupply
Ice-mining
SSN 778 surfaced
VIP visit
Demonstrating technology, gaining experience & expertise
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Installation Vulnerability Assessments
Physical Impacts
!  Inundation
!  Wetlands
!  Erosion patterns & rates
!  Surface/ground water supplies
!  Water tables
!  Tidal flows & currents
!  Storm & flood damage
Naval Station Norfolk
Camp Pendleton
Naval Base Coronado
Camp Lejeune
Eglin Air Force Base
Enabled & informed by sound science
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Improving Prediction Capability
Earth System Prediction Capability
Recapitalize aging suite of global
atmospheric models
Implement interagency collaboration
TC Forecasts
Sea Level Rise
GHG Monitoring
Revolutionary advancement National
predictive architecture
Extreme Weather,
Floods, Droughts
Arctic
Initial Navy investments through ONR in 2012
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National Security
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Navy Engagement
Defense
National
Congressional
International
Media
Operation NANOOK/NATSIQ
Coordination & support
to multiple OSD offices
US-UK Statement to US CODEL
National Ocean Policy
Implementation
Radio interviews
USS Taylor Port Visit to
Murmansk
USEUCOM / SACEUR
Flag-level meetings
National Security Staff’s
Arctic Interagency Policy
Committee
House sub-committee
testimonies
USPACOM
Environmental
Security Conference
On-line publications
Conferences & symposia
US Global Change
Research Program
USNORTHCOM
Flag-level Meetings
Multiple briefings to HAC-D,
SAC-D, HASC, and SASC staffs
US – Foreign Navy Staff Talks
Demonstrating leadership
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Traditional printed outlets
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Navy Adaptation Activity
Education
Policy, Strategy, & Plans
Nav
Roa y
dma
p
Naval Post Graduate
School Arctic & Climate
Change Dissertations
Climate course
established
at US Naval
Academy
Naval War College
courses address
Arctic & Climate
Study Topics
Support to
2010 QDR
Arctic &
Climate Change
Roadmaps
Navy
Arctic
Strategic
Objectives
Exploring New
Cooperative
Partnerships
Operations & Training
Studies & Assessments
Arctic Care 2010
Support to
DoD sea level
rise studies
Support to
Defense Science
Board Climate
Change Task Force
Study for AFRICOM
Northern
Edge 2009
Naval Studies Board
climate change study
Conferences,
Symposia,
Media events
Advocate for
UNCLOS
Improve understanding
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Arctic glider UUV
demonstration
Operation
NANOOK
Science & Research
Outreach & Engagement
Support Interagency
Climate Change
Adaptation Task Force
Wargames
& Tabletop
Exercises
Smart Voyage
Planning
Interagency partnership
For air-ocean-ice
numerical prediction
Science Ice
Exercise Plan
Ensure readiness (resilience)28
Navy Initiatives
Observation & Prediction
Na
Roa vy
dma
p
Adaptation
Arctic &
Climate Change
Roadmaps
Cooperative
Oceanographic
Surveys
Remote sensing
Arctic civil
relocation
& erosion
control
Portable Power
Biofuels
New
Construction
& Renovation
Renewable power
Training &
Awareness
Arctic fleet
training
Technology and Research to Understand,
Predict and Adapt to Climate Change
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Net Zero
Installations
Incentivized
Conservation
Water resource
management
Environmental
Impact
Assessments
Alternative Energy
Smart Grid
Metering &
Auditing
Sea level rise
impact
modeling
Next Generation
Air-ocean-ice
numerical prediction
Energy Efficiency
Smart Voyage
Planning, &
Efficient Aircraft &
Ship Systems
Alternative Fuel Vehicles
Assure Mobility + Expand Tactical Reach
+ Lighten the Load = Combat Capability
Reduce the Navy Carbon Footprint
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What’s Next
MAR
APR
Studies & Assessments
MAY
JUN
JUL
Nav
y
CBA
Navy Arctic
OSD-Policy
Capabilities
Fleet Arctic
Arctic
Report
to Congress Readiness
Based
Assessment
Assessment
Initial
Arctic
Dashboard
AUG
SEPT
Navy Installations
Sea Level Rise Study
Operations & Training
Arctic Care 2011
Northern Edge 2011
Arctic Shield 2011
Outreach & Engagement
Navy Energy & Climate Symposium
Capitol Hill
Ocean Week
National Ice Center
Symposium
Arctic Militaries
Roundtable
Science & Research
Formalize Interagency
partnership for
air-ocean-ice numerical prediction
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ONR
Naval War College
Direct Research
Arctic Game
Initiatives
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Discussion
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