Projections of 2003-04
High School Graduates:
Supplemental Analyses
Christopher B. Swanson
Education Policy Center
The Urban Institute
based on findings from
Who Graduates? Who Doesn’t?
EPC
The Urban Institute
Education Policy Center
Related Research
from the Urban Institute’s Education Policy Center
Christopher B. Swanson 2004. Who Graduates? Who Doesn't? A Statistical Portrait of Public High
School Graduation, Class of 2001. Washington, D.C., The Urban Institute.
Available on-line: http://www.urban.org/url.cfm?ID=410934
Gary Orfield, Daniel Losen, Johanna Wald, and Christopher B. Swanson 2004. Losing Our Future:
How Minority Youth are Being Left Behind by the Graduation Rate Crisis. Cambridge, MA: The Civil
Rights Project at Harvard University and the Urban Institute.
Available on-line: http://www.urban.org/url.cfm?ID=410936
Christopher B. Swanson 2003. Ten Questions (and Answers) about Graduates, Dropouts, and NCLB
Accountability. Learning Curve: Facts and Perspectives Brief No. 3. Washington, D.C.: The Urban
Institute.
Available on-line: http://www.urban.org/url.cfm?ID=310873
Christopher B. Swanson 2003. NCLB Implementation Report: State Approaches for Calculating High
School Graduation Rates. Washington, D.C.: The Urban Institute.
Available on-line: http://www.urban.org/url.cfm?ID=410848
Christopher B. Swanson 2003. Keeping Count and Losing Count: Calculating Graduation Rates for All
Students under NCLB Accountability. Washington, D.C.: The Urban Institute.
Available on-line: http://www.urban.org/url.cfm?ID=410843
Christopher B. Swanson 2003. Caps, Gowns, and Games: High School Graduates and NCLB.
Learning Curve: Facts and Perspectives Brief No. 1. Washington, D.C.: The Urban Institute.
Available on-line: http://www.urban.org/url.cfm?ID=310777
The nonpartisan Urban Institute publishes studies, reports, and books on timely topics worthy of public
consideration. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and are not necessarily those of
the Urban Institute or its board of trustees. Please direct correspondence to Christopher B. Swanson,
The Urban Institute, Education Policy Center, 2100 M Street NW, Washington DC 20037. For more
information contact the Urban Institute Public Affairs Office at 202-261-5709 or visit www.urban.org.
The Urban Institute / Education Policy Center
1.
Graduation Projections
INTRODUCTION
This report presents a supplemental analysis based on the findings of a recent Urban Institute study. In
that earlier investigation, Who Graduates? Who Doesn’t?, we published the most comprehensive and
systematic analysis of public school graduation rates in the United States available to date.1 Using data
from a federal census of public schools and districts and a method for calculating graduation rates
developed by the Urban Institute (the Cumulative Promotion Index), we computed graduation rates for
virtually every school district in the nation. Separate graduation profiles were reported for the nation as a
whole, each state, and for geographical regions. Results were also disaggregated by race-ethnicity,
gender, and for different types of school districts.
A careful analysis of high school completion patterns can provide valuable insights into the performance
of public education systems. In some situations, the most pertinent information can be communicated as
a rate, in this case the percent of students who graduate from high school. But in other circumstances,
count data (e.g., the absolute number of graduates) can also contribute to our understanding or
appreciation of an educational process or the magnitude of a potential social problem.
For instance, in Who Graduates? we reported that racial-ethnic minorities (with the exception of Asians)
have graduation rates much lower than those of their White peers. Minority students make up less than
40 percent of public school students nationwide. However in the current study we project that racialethnic minorities will make up the numerical majority of all non-graduates for the high school class of
2003-04. We estimate just over 700,000 minority non-graduates compared to a little under 600,000 for
Whites (see Tables 2-6 below). This pattern can be attributed to the very large disparities in high school
completion between these groups (a 75 percent graduation rate for White students compared to slightly
over 50 percent for historically disadvantaged minority groups).
In this report, we make use of our earlier findings on graduation rates to compute projections of the
numbers of students we expect to graduate from public high schools at the end of the current school year
(2003-04). As was the case in our previous work, detailed national and state results are presented for
students as a whole and for selected subgroups.
2.
METHODOLOGY
2.1.
Data Source
The analyses performed for this study employ data from the Common Core of Data (CCD). Conducted by
the U.S. Department of Education, the CCD is a census of public sector local educational agencies
(districts) and schools for the fifty states, the District of Columbia and several other non-state jurisdictions.
The CCD data collection is intended to capture all settings in which a free public education is provided at
the elementary and secondary levels. Annual surveys of basic demographic and educational information
at the state, district, and school levels are completed by staff of the respective state education agencies.
1
For additional information, see Who Graduates? Who Doesn’t?
Graduation. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute, 2004.
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A Statistical Portrait of Public High School
The Urban Institute / Education Policy Center
Graduation Projections
Detailed methodological descriptions of the CCD can be found in technical documentation published by
the National Center for Education Statistics.2
This study derives information from the school- and district-level CCD data collections from the 2000-01
and 2001-02 academic years. In the fall of 2000, approximately 15,000 regular public school districts
were in operation throughout the fifty states and District of Columbia. Almost one-quarter of all districts in
the nation contain only elementary-level grades and, consequently, do not produce graduates.
Accordingly, we limit our study of high school completion patterns to the roughly 11,000 districts that
enroll students at the secondary level (grades 9 through 12).
2.2.
The Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI)
This report employs the Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI) to measure public high school graduation
rates. The value of the CPI indicator approximates the probability that a student entering the ninth grade
will complete high school on time with a regular diploma. Our measure does this by representing high
school graduation as a stepwise process composed of three grade-to-grade promotion transitions (grade
9 to 10, 10 to 11, and 11 to 12) in addition to the ultimate high school graduation event (grade 12 to
diploma). The formula displayed in Exhibit 1 illustrates the formula for calculating the CPI using data on
graduates from the 2000-01 academic year.3
Exhibit 1
Formulation for the Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI)
CPI 2001
12
11
10
  G 2001 
  E 2002
  E 2002
 E 2002
=  9  ∗  10  ∗  11  ∗  12

 E 2001   E 2001   E 2001   E 2001 
where
G2001 is the count of students who graduated with a regular high school
diploma during the 2000-2001 school year,
9
E2001
is the count of students enrolled in grade 9 at the beginning of
the 2000-01 school year, and
10
E2002
is the count of students enrolled in grade 10 at the beginning of
the 2001-02 school year.
2
See: Documentation to the NCES Common Core of Data Local Education Agency Universe Survey: School Year
2001-02, U.S. Department of Education, 2003; and Documentation to the NCES Common Core of Data Public
Elementary/Secondary School Universe Survey: School Year 2001-02, U.S. Department of Education, 2003.
3
By convention, the year associated with the CPI indicator is spring of the academic year from which graduate data
are obtained. For example, the CPI2001 rate would be based on the number of graduates for the 2000-01 school year.
The indicator would also utilize grade-level enrollment data from the 2000-01 and 2001-02 school years.
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The Urban Institute / Education Policy Center
Graduation Projections
As the formula above shows, the CPI measure is composed of four subcomponents, each of which
corresponds to a grade-specific promotion rate. By multiplying these promotion ratios together, the CPI
estimates the likelihood that a ninth grader from a particular school system will complete high school with
a regular diploma in four years, given the conditions prevailing in that school system during the 2000-01
school year.
It should be noted that the CPI indicator counts only students receiving regular high school diplomas as
graduates. This definition of a graduate is consistent with the provisions of the No Child Left Behind Act.
The law clearly stipulates that for purposes of federal accountability the recipients of a regular standardsbased state diploma are counted as graduates while those who obtain other state-issued credentials
(e.g., certificates of attendance) or the GED are not to be considered graduates. Some publicly-reported
statistics treat recipients of these non-diploma credentials as graduates. Such rates will not be directly
comparable with the CPI indicator used this study, which counts only regular diplomas.
The Cumulative Promotion Index offers a flexible and intuitive method for measuring graduation rates,
and one that is consistent with the requirements of No Child Left Behind. Using data from the CCD and
the CPI method, aggregate graduation rates for all students can be calculated for nearly every district in
the nation. Based on district-level results, it is then possible to aggregate upward to estimate graduation
rates for states and the nation as a whole.
The CCD database also provides the information about enrollment and high school completion patterns
necessary to compute disaggregated graduation rates for specific student subgroups defined on the basis
of race-ethnicity and gender. In this report the CPI indicator is calculated in the same manner (as
described above) to generate graduation rates both in the aggregate and for selected subgroups of
students. The results reported below employ data from the most recent graduating class reported in the
Common Core of Data. These data are from the 2000-01 school year.
2.3.
Projecting the Number of Graduates
As explained above, the CPI graduation rate indicator estimates the percent of ninth grade students who
will receive a high school diploma four school years later. This rate of progress through high school
would correspond to regular promotion at the pace of one grade each year. Paired with data on the
number of ninth-graders enrolled during the “entry” year, we can use the CPI rate to project the number
of graduates for the expected “completion” year. As illustrated in Exhibit 1, the CPI statistic itself is
calculated using information about the number of graduates from the entry year and shifts in grade-bygrade enrollment patterns from the start of the entry year to the start of the following school year.
(Number of Ninth Graders entry year) X (CPI Rate entry year) = Projected Number of Graduates completion year
We can illustrate this projection calculation for the Class of 2004 in hypothetical district that we will refer to
as “Central Schools.” Assuming they progressed on-time through high school, students graduating in the
Spring of 2004 would have entered ninth grade in the fall of 2000. Let us suppose that 1,000 students
were enrolled in the ninth grade in the Central Schools district during the fall of the 2000-01 academic
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The Urban Institute / Education Policy Center
Graduation Projections
year. If all of those students were promoted normally from grade-to-grade and completed all
requirements necessary to receive a diploma, then we would expect there to be a total of 1,000 graduates
at the end of the 2003-04 school year. However, suppose instead that we actually calculated a CPI
graduation rate of 82 percent for the Central Schools district. Based on the number of ninth graders in
the starting year and this CPI rate, we would project a total of 820 high school graduates for this district in
for the 2003-04 school year.
1000 Ninth Graders2001 X .82 CPI Rate2001 = 820 Graduates 2004
Given appropriate data, the same logic could be applied to a variety of different organizational levels in
the public school system – individual schools, districts, even entire states. In addition, detailed
projections could also be calculated for specific subgroups of students (e.g., racial-ethnic minorities or
students attending certain types of schools), provided that disaggregated data on both grade-level
enrollment and diploma counts are available for those categories.
2.4.
Student and District Characteristics
In the analyses conducted in this study we calculate both national and state-level projections of the
number of graduates and non-graduates for the 2003-04 school year. Results are reported for students
as a whole, and disaggregated by race-ethnicity, by gender, and for all student attending certain types of
school districts. Like all other data used in this investigation, information on student and district
characteristics is obtained from the Common Core of Data. Below, we describe the CCD’s definitions for
these variables as well as the cut points we established to categorize districts specifically for the
purposes of this report.
Race-Ethnicity
The CCD collects disaggregated data on grade-level enrollment and high school
completion separately for major racial and ethnic groups. The five reporting categories for race-ethnicity
used by the CCD are: American Indian/Alaskan Native, Asian/Pacific Islander, Hispanic, Black (not
Hispanic), and White (not Hispanic). As is customary in social science research, this study adopts CCD’s
official category labels when referring to these groups of students.
Gender
The CCD collects disaggregated data on grade-level enrollment and high school completion
separately by gender (female, male).
District Poverty This study measures district poverty levels using data on the percent of students in a
school district who are eligible to participate in either the Free or Reduced Price Lunch programs (FRL)
under the National School Lunch Act. Eligibility for these programs is based on family size and income.
In educational research, FRL eligibility is widely employed as a proxy measure to approximate levels of
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The Urban Institute / Education Policy Center
Graduation Projections
poverty and socioeconomic disadvantage. High poverty districts are defined in this study as those where
the proportion of students eligible for the lunch programs is above the national average of 38 percent.
District Racial-Ethnic Composition
Using data on enrollment disaggregated by race-ethnicity, we
calculate the percentage of minority (non-White) students enrolled in a school district. For this study, we
group districts into two categories with regard to racial composition: Majority Minority districts where
members of racial-ethnic minorities make up more than 50 percent of the student population; and Majority
White districts where at least half of all students are White, non-Hispanic.
District Location This study classifies a district’s location into one of four mutually-exclusive categories
according to its general level of urbanization or population density. The categories we use are as follows:
Central City, Suburb, Town, and Rural. These classifications are a simplified version of the NCES Locale
Codes reported in the CCD. The Common Core of Data defines a district’s locale based on the prevailing
pattern of school locations and student enrollment within district boundaries. Detailed definitions for each
of this study’s locale categories appears below.
Central City: a central city of Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area (CMSA). This definition
combines NCES Locale Codes for large and mid-size central cities.
Suburb: any incorporated place, Census Designated Place, or non-place territory within a CMSA
or MSA of a large or mid-size city and defined as urban by the Census Bureau. This definition
combines NCES Locale Codes for urban fringes of large and mid-size cities.
Town: an incorporated place or Census Designated Place with a population greater than or equal
to 2,500 and located outside a CMSA or MSA. This definition combines NCES Locale Codes for
large and small towns.
Rural: any incorporated place, Census Designated Place, or non-place territory and defined as
rural by the Census Bureau. A rural area may be within or outside of a CMSA or MSA of a large
or mid-size city.
2.4.
A Note on Interpreting Results
It should be noted that the source of data used in this study (the Common Core of Data) is comprised of
cross-sectional snapshots of educational conditions that provide information at a relatively broad level of
detail. So, for example, we know the number of ninth graders a district enrolled in 2001 and how many
diplomas it awarded in 2004. But there is no way to determine how many of those 2001 ninth graders
were first-time freshmen (as opposed to those who had been held back or retained in grade from the year
before). Nor do we know how many of those 2004 graduates had moved into the school district since
2001. The CCD does not collect the more detailed data needed to draw these kinds of finer-grained
distinctions.
Like all statistical estimates, the CPI graduation rates and the projections reported in this research brief
are imperfect approximations of an unknown value. As is often the case, it would be possible to generate
more accurate estimates if better data were available. For example, access to more detailed information
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The Urban Institute / Education Policy Center
Graduation Projections
might allow us to further refine of the CPI indicator by distinguishing between first-time and repeat ninth
graders. However, the same can also be said of other statistical estimates based on data that are
incomplete, contain some amount of error, or lack the fine level of detail that might be desirable. The
latter include many of the high school graduation indicators currently used by federal and state education
agencies. Such limitations, while to some extent inevitable, should be kept in mind when interpreting the
results of this study and when comparing the findings reported here to data from other research studies or
official sources.
3.
PROJECTIONS OF 2004 HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES
The tables in this final section report the projected numbers of graduates for the 2003-2004 school year,
using the calculation methods described above. Each table presents results for the nation as a whole,
the fifty states and the District of Columbia. Table 1 presents findings for all students, while the remaining
tables each focus on a specific subgroup of students (e.g., males, a particular racial-ethnic group, or
students in urban districts).
The first data column in each table reports the total the number of ninth graders enrolled in the 2000-01
school year. Subgroup tables also indicate the percent of ninth graders in the applicable reporting group
as well as the number of students in that category. The final columns in each table contain the CPI
graduation rate and the projected number of graduates and non-graduates. The “non-graduation” rate is
obtained by simply subtracting the CPI rate from one.
In order to simplify the presentation of results, values expressed in a percentage metric (i.e., the percent
distribution of students by subgroup and the CPI rate) have been rounded to the nearest one-tenth of a
percent. The actual computations used to derive the student counts reported in the tables were
performed with a greater degree of precision.
In the analyses below, we are able to calculate graduation rates and projections for students as a whole
for the entire nation, each of the states, and the District of Columbia. However, there are certain
situations in the disaggregated analyses where we are unable to report state-level values for enrollment
counts, graduation rates, or projections of graduates and non-graduates. Notations in the tables below
indicate the specific reason that a particular data field is missing.
In the majority of these cases, information is missing because a state does not report a particular
disaggregated data field to the Common Core of Data. For instance, a number of states do not provide
grade-level enrollment counts broken down by race-ethnicity and gender. In other cases, disaggregated
enrollment data are available but diploma counts by race or gender are not reported. It is also the case
that some states do not contain districts with particular characteristics. For example, there are no
suburban districts in Wyoming and no districts in Iowa where racial-ethnic minorities comprise the bulk of
the student population.
Finally, this research brief adopts data reporting conventions developed in earlier Urban Institute studies.
Specifically, we do not report a CPI graduation rate unless the value represents at least 50 percent of the
target student population. Most situations in which this step has been taken involve numerically small
student groups for which reliable and stable estimates cannot reasonably be generated (e.g., Native
Americans in the District of Columbia).
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The Urban Institute / Education Policy Center
Graduation Projections
Table 1:
Projections of 2003-04 Graduates and Non-Graduates – All Students
All
Students
(#)
Graduation
Rate
All
Students
(%)
3,913,738
60,245
11,348
70,124
36,055
476,142
61,097
40,423
10,366
4,207
238,161
126,793
15,915
19,471
163,806
79,825
40,660
38,780
54,187
53,879
17,134
71,705
59,213
142,663
70,236
39,386
75,173
13,321
24,122
29,972
17,578
95,228
28,944
245,311
111,745
9,204
159,724
49,667
44,574
153,523
12,557
63,776
10,920
73,141
355,019
35,538
8,594
98,062
87,238
23,592
77,683
7,711
th
9 Graders in 2000-01
Nation
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Dist. of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Projection of 2003-04 Outcomes
Graduates
All Students
(#)
Non-Graduates
All Students
(#)
68.0
2,661,342
1,252,396
61.4
64.2
67.3
70.5
68.9
69.0
77.0
64.3
65.2
53.0
55.5
66.0
79.6
75.0
72.4
78.2
74.1
65.3
64.5
72.1
75.3
71.0
74.0
78.9
58.0
72.9
77.1
77.3
54.7
73.9
86.3
61.2
61.4
63.5
79.5
70.7
69.8
73.6
75.5
73.5
50.7
79.4
57.5
65.0
78.3
77.9
73.8
62.6
70.7
78.2
72.4
36,990
7,285
47,193
25,419
328,062
42,157
31,126
6,665
2,743
126,225
70,370
10,504
15,499
122,855
57,793
31,796
28,736
35,384
34,752
12,354
53,994
42,041
105,571
55,416
22,844
54,801
10,270
18,646
16,395
12,990
82,182
17,714
150,621
70,958
7,317
112,925
34,668
32,806
115,910
9,229
32,334
8,670
42,056
230,762
27,826
6,695
72,370
54,611
16,680
60,748
5,583
23,255
4,063
22,931
10,636
148,080
18,940
9,297
3,701
1,464
111,936
56,423
5,411
3,972
40,952
22,032
8,864
10,044
18,803
19,127
4,780
17,711
17,172
37,092
14,820
16,542
20,372
3,051
5,476
13,577
4,588
13,046
11,230
94,690
40,787
1,887
46,799
14,999
11,768
37,613
3,328
31,442
2,250
31,085
124,257
7,712
1,899
25,692
32,627
6,912
16,935
2,128
Source: Common Core of Data Local Educational Agency and School Surveys, National Center for Education Statistics. Details may not sum
to totals due to rounding.
nr
Value not calculated because necessary data field(s) not reported in CCD.
* Value not reported because a reliable graduation estimate could not be calculated for this group.
†
Value not reported because there are no districts in this category.
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The Urban Institute / Education Policy Center
Graduation Projections
Table 2:
Projections of 2003-04 Graduates and Non-Graduates – American Indians/Alaska Natives
th
9 Graders in 2000-01
Nation
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Dist. of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
All
Students
(#)
Am. Ind.
Students
(%)
Am. Ind.
Students
(#)
3,913,738
1.2
60,245
11,348
70,124
36,055
476,142
61,097
40,423
10,366
4,207
238,161
126,793
15,915
19,471
163,806
79,825
40,660
38,780
54,187
53,879
17,134
71,705
59,213
142,663
70,236
39,386
75,173
13,321
24,122
29,972
17,578
95,228
28,944
245,311
111,745
9,204
159,724
49,667
44,574
153,523
12,557
63,776
10,920
73,141
355,019
35,538
8,594
98,062
87,238
23,592
77,683
7,711
0.8
24.5
7.8
0.5
0.9
1.1
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.4
nr
--0.2
0.2
0.5
1.3
0.2
0.7
0.7
0.4
0.3
1.2
2.1
0.2
0.3
10.8
1.6
1.7
0.2
0.2
11.9
0.4
1.7
8.7
0.1
16.2
2.2
0.1
0.6
0.2
9.5
nr
--0.3
1.5
0.8
0.2
nr
--0.1
1.5
3.0
Graduation
Rate
Am. Ind.
Projection of 2003-04 Outcomes
(%)
Graduates
Am. Ind.
(#)
Non-Graduates
Am. Ind.
(#)
45,923
51.1
23,467
22,456
483
2,779
5,459
189
4,211
681
103
30
3
564
194
71
nr
--319
175
183
518
95
357
113
256
158
1,697
1,443
68
237
1,433
382
508
38
218
3,437
860
1,845
797
189
8,067
959
205
73
137
1,038
nr
--1,003
527
72
225
nr
--21
1,152
230
68.6
46.5
nr
--69.3
49.7
40.7
42.9
---*
---*
47.9
34.3
70.9
nr
-----*
33.9
---*
---*
---*
58.1
33.0
---*
25.4
39.5
35.7
---*
22.7
45.8
32.3
47.8
nr
-----*
60.0
36.2
33.8
52.6
22.4
63.9
42.4
24.9
---*
nr
--32.1
nr
--36.7
52.8
nr
--68.6
nr
--52.8
47.0
34.4
331
1,292
nr
--131
2,093
277
44
---*
---*
270
67
50
nr
-----*
59
---*
---*
---*
207
37
---*
40
670
515
---*
54
656
123
243
nr
-----*
2,062
311
624
419
42
5,155
407
51
---*
nr
--333
nr
--368
278
nr
--154
nr
--11
541
79
152
1,487
nr
--58
2,118
404
59
---*
---*
294
127
21
nr
-----*
116
---*
---*
---*
150
76
---*
118
1,027
928
---*
183
777
259
265
nr
-----*
1,375
549
1,221
378
147
2,912
552
154
---*
nr
--705
nr
--635
249
nr
--71
nr
--10
611
151
Source: Common Core of Data Local Educational Agency and School Surveys, National Center for Education Statistics. Details may not sum
to totals due to rounding.
nr
Value not calculated because necessary data field(s) not reported in CCD.
* Value not reported because a reliable graduation estimate could not be calculated for this group.
†
Value not reported because there are no districts in this category.
-8-
The Urban Institute / Education Policy Center
Graduation Projections
Table 3:
Projections of 2003-04 Graduates and Non-Graduates – Asians/Pacific Islanders
th
9 Graders in 2000-01
Nation
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Dist. of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
All
Students
(#)
Asian
Students
(%)
Asian
Students
(#)
3,913,738
4.0
60,245
11,348
70,124
36,055
476,142
61,097
40,423
10,366
4,207
238,161
126,793
15,915
19,471
163,806
79,825
40,660
38,780
54,187
53,879
17,134
71,705
59,213
142,663
70,236
39,386
75,173
13,321
24,122
29,972
17,578
95,228
28,944
245,311
111,745
9,204
159,724
49,667
44,574
153,523
12,557
63,776
10,920
73,141
355,019
35,538
8,594
98,062
87,238
23,592
77,683
7,711
0.7
5.2
1.9
0.9
11.4
2.8
2.7
1.8
1.9
1.7
2.1
72.9
nr
--3.4
0.9
1.8
2.2
0.7
1.4
0.9
4.2
5.1
1.7
4.9
0.7
1.1
0.7
1.4
5.7
1.1
6.2
1.1
6.3
1.8
0.7
1.0
1.5
3.8
2.0
3.4
0.9
1.0
nr
--2.5
2.7
1.2
4.1
nr
--0.6
3.0
0.7
Graduation
Rate
Asian
Projection of 2003-04 Outcomes
(%)
Graduates
Asian
(#)
Non-Graduates
Asian
(#)
158,326
76.8
121,594
36,732
430
586
1,337
315
54,256
1,712
1,102
186
81
4,113
2,713
11,596
nr
--5,609
751
728
860
354
740
147
2,990
2,994
2,364
3,463
269
833
98
334
1,697
191
5,937
317
15,359
2,042
66
1,666
721
1,714
3,111
427
565
110
nr
--8,787
948
102
3,982
nr
--137
2,326
54
66.3
71.4
nr
--76.8
82.0
72.6
73.7
---*
---*
79.9
79.8
66.8
nr
--88.8
---*
66.2
48.0
63.3
74.2
35.2
92.9
60.5
---*
66.3
45.6
73.4
---*
---*
75.1
nr
--83.3
64.2
61.2
68.3
30.6
---*
---*
78.4
63.5
53.8
nr
--61.2
nr
--85.3
69.3
nr
--80.4
nr
-----*
73.2
---*
285
418
nr
--242
44,490
1,243
812
---*
---*
3,286
2,165
7,746
nr
--4,981
---*
482
413
224
549
52
2,778
1,811
---*
2,296
123
611
---*
---*
1,274
nr
--4,946
204
9,400
1,395
20
---*
---*
1,344
1,975
230
nr
--67
nr
--7,495
657
nr
--3,202
nr
-----*
1,703
---*
145
168
nr
--73
9,766
469
290
---*
---*
827
548
3,850
nr
--628
---*
246
447
130
191
95
212
1,183
---*
1,167
146
222
---*
---*
423
nr
--991
113
5,959
647
46
---*
---*
370
1,136
197
nr
--43
nr
--1,292
291
nr
--780
nr
-----*
623
---*
Source: Common Core of Data Local Educational Agency and School Surveys, National Center for Education Statistics. Details may not sum
to totals due to rounding.
nr
Value not calculated because necessary data field(s) not reported in CCD.
* Value not reported because a reliable graduation estimate could not be calculated for this group.
†
Value not reported because there are no districts in this category.
-9-
The Urban Institute / Education Policy Center
Graduation Projections
Table 4:
Projections of 2003-04 Graduates and Non-Graduates – Hispanic Students
th
9 Graders in 2000-01
Nation
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Dist. of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
All
Students
(#)
Hispanic
Students
(%)
Hispanic
Students
(#)
3,913,738
16.2
60,245
11,348
70,124
36,055
476,142
61,097
40,423
10,366
4,207
238,161
126,793
15,915
19,471
163,806
79,825
40,660
38,780
54,187
53,879
17,134
71,705
59,213
142,663
70,236
39,386
75,173
13,321
24,122
29,972
17,578
95,228
28,944
245,311
111,745
9,204
159,724
49,667
44,574
153,523
12,557
63,776
10,920
73,141
355,019
35,538
8,594
98,062
87,238
23,592
77,683
7,711
1.0
3.0
32.2
2.8
41.7
21.4
13.1
5.0
10.9
18.7
4.0
4.9
nr
--14.2
3.3
3.3
8.3
0.9
1.4
0.5
4.3
12.7
3.2
2.9
0.9
1.7
1.4
6.2
24.6
1.7
15.0
50.3
19.1
3.6
1.0
1.6
5.4
8.8
4.5
12.5
1.6
1.0
nr
--40.3
7.6
0.6
4.5
nr
--0.4
4.0
6.2
Graduation
Rate
Hispanic
Projection of 2003-04 Outcomes
(%)
Graduates
Hispanic
(#)
Non-Graduates
Hispanic
(#)
633,664
53.2
337,109
296,555
624
337
22,564
1,018
198,452
13,049
5,305
518
457
44,481
5,040
775
nr
--23,299
2,620
1,335
3,230
464
770
88
3,088
7,528
4,549
2,008
339
1,249
190
1,499
7,381
293
14,259
14,547
46,886
4,072
96
2,616
2,702
3,909
6,918
1,573
995
109
nr
--142,958
2,711
53
4,451
nr
--96
3,145
477
43.8
58.3
nr
-----*
57.0
47.6
50.1
42.2
56.1
52.2
43.2
59.9
nr
--57.8
50.4
40.5
47.6
62.8
74.2
---*
71.2
36.1
36.3
---*
---*
---*
56.8
46.9
37.6
nr
-----*
54.7
31.9
58.4
---*
43.2
56.2
56.2
40.9
67.7
nr
-----*
nr
--55.9
---*
nr
--65.2
nr
-----*
54.4
57.1
273
196
nr
-----*
113,117
6,211
2,658
219
256
23,219
2,177
464
nr
--13,467
1,320
541
1,537
291
571
---*
2,199
2,718
1,651
---*
---*
---*
108
703
2,775
nr
-----*
7,957
14,956
2,378
---*
1,130
1,519
2,197
2,829
1,065
nr
-----*
nr
--79,914
---*
nr
--2,902
nr
-----*
1,711
272
350
141
nr
-----*
85,334
6,838
2,647
299
201
21,262
2,863
311
nr
--9,832
1,300
794
1,693
173
199
---*
889
4,810
2,898
---*
---*
---*
82
796
4,606
nr
-----*
6,590
31,929
1,694
---*
1,486
1,183
1,712
4,089
508
nr
-----*
nr
--63,044
---*
nr
--1,549
nr
-----*
1,434
205
Source: Common Core of Data Local Educational Agency and School Surveys, National Center for Education Statistics. Details may not sum
to totals due to rounding.
nr
Value not calculated because necessary data field(s) not reported in CCD.
* Value not reported because a reliable graduation estimate could not be calculated for this group.
†
Value not reported because there are no districts in this category.
- 10 -
The Urban Institute / Education Policy Center
Graduation Projections
Table 5:
Projections of 2003-04 Graduates and Non-Graduates – Black, Non-Hispanic Students
th
9 Graders in 2000-01
Nation
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Dist. of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
All
Students
(#)
Black
Students
(%)
Black
Students
(#)
3,913,738
17.9
60,245
11,348
70,124
36,055
476,142
61,097
40,423
10,366
4,207
238,161
126,793
15,915
19,471
163,806
79,825
40,660
38,780
54,187
53,879
17,134
71,705
59,213
142,663
70,236
39,386
75,173
13,321
24,122
29,972
17,578
95,228
28,944
245,311
111,745
9,204
159,724
49,667
44,574
153,523
12,557
63,776
10,920
73,141
355,019
35,538
8,594
98,062
87,238
23,592
77,683
7,711
36.5
4.2
4.4
22.6
8.6
5.8
13.7
32.5
84.0
26.7
39.8
1.9
nr
--21.5
11.8
3.5
8.9
10.6
42.1
0.9
38.3
10.4
18.4
6.1
49.6
16.8
0.4
7.5
10.6
1.1
17.9
2.3
21.9
31.9
0.9
16.8
11.0
2.6
16.0
7.1
43.9
1.0
nr
--14.7
0.9
1.1
27.6
nr
--4.1
9.8
0.7
Graduation
Rate
Black
Projection of 2003-04 Outcomes
(%)
Graduates
Black
(#)
Non-Graduates
Black
(#)
699,652
50.2
351,225
348,427
22,019
471
3,053
8,144
40,970
3,532
5,540
3,369
3,535
63,635
50,468
309
nr
--35,248
9,422
1,425
3,470
5,756
22,662
158
27,475
6,131
26,254
4,305
19,540
12,604
54
1,812
3,163
186
17,064
660
53,738
35,645
80
26,894
5,464
1,140
24,515
896
27,991
110
nr
--52,306
306
95
27,039
nr
--960
7,585
57
54.0
66.3
nr
--62.7
55.3
49.0
60.7
53.4
60.4
41.0
43.7
60.7
nr
--47.8
52.9
48.0
52.1
47.5
57.7
---*
64.8
49.4
---*
51.0
52.6
52.3
71.4
45.2
40.5
nr
-----*
55.9
35.1
53.6
72.1
39.6
52.8
58.0
45.9
84.1
nr
-----*
nr
--55.3
---*
nr
--62.8
nr
--58.0
41.1
67.7
11,890
312
nr
--5,106
22,657
1,731
3,363
1,799
2,135
26,090
22,055
188
nr
--16,849
4,984
684
1,808
2,734
13,076
---*
17,804
3,029
---*
2,196
10,278
6,592
39
819
1,281
nr
-----*
369
18,862
19,106
58
10,650
2,885
661
11,252
754
nr
-----*
nr
--28,925
---*
nr
--16,980
nr
--557
3,117
39
10,129
159
nr
--3,038
18,314
1,801
2,177
1,570
1,400
37,545
28,413
121
nr
--18,399
4,438
741
1,662
3,022
9,586
---*
9,671
3,102
---*
2,109
9,262
6,012
15
993
1,882
nr
-----*
291
34,876
16,539
22
16,244
2,579
479
13,263
142
nr
-----*
nr
--23,381
---*
nr
--10,059
nr
--403
4,468
18
Source: Common Core of Data Local Educational Agency and School Surveys, National Center for Education Statistics. Details may not sum
to totals due to rounding.
nr
Value not calculated because necessary data field(s) not reported in CCD.
* Value not reported because a reliable graduation estimate could not be calculated for this group.
†
Value not reported because there are no districts in this category.
- 11 -
The Urban Institute / Education Policy Center
Graduation Projections
Table 6:
Projections of 2003-04 Graduates and Non-Graduates – White, Non-Hispanic Students
th
9 Graders in 2000-01
Nation
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Dist. of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
All
Students
(#)
White
Students
(%)
White
Students
(#)
3,913,738
60.7
60,245
11,348
70,124
36,055
476,142
61,097
40,423
10,366
4,207
238,161
126,793
15,915
19,471
163,806
79,825
40,660
38,780
54,187
53,879
17,134
71,705
59,213
142,663
70,236
39,386
75,173
13,321
24,122
29,972
17,578
95,228
28,944
245,311
111,745
9,204
159,724
49,667
44,574
153,523
12,557
63,776
10,920
73,141
355,019
35,538
8,594
98,062
87,238
23,592
77,683
7,711
60.9
63.2
53.8
73.2
37.4
68.9
70.2
60.4
3.1
52.6
53.9
19.9
nr
--60.6
83.8
91.0
79.2
87.7
54.5
97.0
52.8
71.6
75.6
84.0
48.7
80.1
86.7
83.3
57.5
96.0
60.6
34.5
52.4
61.0
88.7
80.4
65.9
82.7
77.4
76.4
53.4
87.5
nr
--42.2
87.4
96.3
63.6
nr
--94.9
81.7
89.4
Graduation
Rate
White
Projection of 2003-04 Outcomes
(%)
Graduates
White
(#)
Non-Graduates
White
(#)
2,376,173
74.9
1,779,754
596,419
36,689
7,175
37,711
26,389
178,253
42,123
28,373
6,263
131
125,368
68,378
3,164
nr
--99,331
66,857
36,989
30,702
47,518
29,350
16,628
37,896
42,402
107,799
59,017
19,170
60,250
11,546
20,095
17,223
16,870
57,750
9,983
128,469
68,141
8,165
128,359
32,713
36,852
118,774
9,588
34,088
9,553
nr
--149,965
31,046
8,272
62,365
nr
--22,378
63,475
6,893
65.8
66.3
nr
--74.4
75.7
75.2
81.9
69.7
---*
57.9
62.4
64.7
nr
--82.9
74.9
79.3
78.9
68.5
68.0
72.3
79.9
73.7
76.6
81.4
63.3
76.1
79.3
81.7
62.0
nr
--86.4
67.8
75.3
69.2
84.1
75.9
72.1
71.4
81.3
73.8
nr
--83.4
nr
--73.5
83.7
nr
--76.1
nr
--71.3
82.4
73.3
24,142
4,757
nr
--19,633
134,937
31,676
23,237
4,365
---*
72,588
42,668
2,047
nr
--82,345
50,076
29,332
24,224
32,550
19,958
12,022
30,279
31,250
82,574
48,040
12,135
45,850
9,156
16,418
10,678
nr
--49,896
6,768
96,737
47,154
6,867
97,424
23,586
26,312
96,563
7,076
nr
--7,967
nr
--110,224
25,986
nr
--47,460
nr
--15,956
52,303
5,053
12,548
2,418
nr
--6,756
43,315
10,447
5,136
1,898
---*
52,780
25,710
1,117
nr
--16,986
16,781
7,657
6,478
14,968
9,392
4,606
7,617
11,152
25,225
10,977
7,035
14,400
2,390
3,677
6,545
nr
--7,854
3,215
31,732
20,987
1,298
30,935
9,127
10,540
22,211
2,512
nr
--1,586
nr
--39,741
5,060
nr
--14,905
nr
--6,422
11,172
1,840
Source: Common Core of Data Local Educational Agency and School Surveys, National Center for Education Statistics. Details may not sum
to totals due to rounding.
nr
Value not calculated because necessary data field(s) not reported in CCD.
* Value not reported because a reliable graduation estimate could not be calculated for this group.
†
Value not reported because there are no districts in this category.
- 12 -
The Urban Institute / Education Policy Center
Graduation Projections
Table 7:
Projections of 2003-04 Graduates and Non-Graduates – Female Students
th
9 Graders in 2000-01
Nation
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Dist. of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
All
Students
(#)
Female
Students
(%)
Female
Students
(#)
3,913,738
48.1
60,245
11,348
70,124
36,055
476,142
61,097
40,423
10,366
4,207
238,161
126,793
15,915
19,471
163,806
79,825
40,660
38,780
54,187
53,879
17,134
71,705
59,213
142,663
70,236
39,386
75,173
13,321
24,122
29,972
17,578
95,228
28,944
245,311
111,745
9,204
159,724
49,667
44,574
153,523
12,557
63,776
10,920
73,141
355,019
35,538
8,594
98,062
87,238
23,592
77,683
7,711
47.5
47.6
48.4
48.1
48.7
48.5
49.5
48.0
47.1
46.8
47.4
46.3
nr
--48.3
48.2
48.7
48.3
46.9
48.2
47.9
48.3
nr
--48.4
48.7
48.5
48.4
47.9
47.9
47.0
48.3
49.7
47.9
48.8
47.6
48.6
47.6
48.5
nr
--nr
--48.4
48.0
48.0
nr
--47.4
49.6
48.3
48.0
nr
--47.1
48.3
47.8
Graduation
Rate
Female
Projection of 2003-04 Outcomes
(%)
Graduates
Female
(#)
Non-Graduates
Female
(#)
1,882,127
72.0
1,355,131
526,995
28,627
5,398
33,928
17,338
231,826
29,606
19,993
4,977
1,980
111,377
60,067
7,363
nr
--79,185
38,469
19,818
18,731
25,422
25,949
8,203
34,619
nr
--69,075
34,173
19,097
36,348
6,385
11,547
14,086
8,491
47,294
13,868
119,615
53,181
4,476
76,016
24,111
nr
--nr
--6,081
30,597
5,241
nr
--168,146
17,638
4,150
47,079
nr
--11,107
37,539
3,688
67.3
67.4
nr
--74.6
73.2
72.9
79.3
69.1
73.0
59.4
60.9
69.6
nr
--77.5
76.6
78.2
75.6
71.2
70.6
74.4
80.5
nr
--76.0
81.4
64.4
75.8
77.1
79.0
60.6
nr
--83.9
64.4
64.0
67.1
81.5
73.8
73.1
nr
--nr
--75.9
nr
--79.9
nr
--69.4
84.0
nr
--78.4
nr
--74.8
80.3
73.4
19,266
3,638
nr
--12,934
169,697
21,583
15,854
3,439
1,445
66,158
36,581
5,125
nr
--61,368
29,467
15,498
14,161
18,101
18,320
6,103
27,868
nr
--52,497
27,817
12,298
27,552
4,923
9,122
8,536
nr
--39,680
8,931
76,554
35,684
3,648
56,100
17,625
nr
--nr
--4,615
nr
--4,188
nr
--116,693
14,816
nr
--36,910
nr
--8,308
30,144
2,707
9,361
1,760
nr
--4,404
62,129
8,023
4,139
1,538
535
45,219
23,486
2,238
nr
--17,817
9,002
4,320
4,570
7,322
7,629
2,100
6,751
nr
--16,578
6,356
6,799
8,796
1,462
2,425
5,550
nr
--7,614
4,937
43,062
17,497
828
19,916
6,486
nr
--nr
--1,466
nr
--1,053
nr
--51,453
2,822
nr
--10,169
nr
--2,799
7,395
981
Source: Common Core of Data Local Educational Agency and School Surveys, National Center for Education Statistics. Details may not sum
to totals due to rounding.
nr
Value not calculated because necessary data field(s) not reported in CCD.
* Value not reported because a reliable graduation estimate could not be calculated for this group.
†
Value not reported because there are no districts in this category.
- 13 -
The Urban Institute / Education Policy Center
Graduation Projections
Table 8:
Projections of 2003-04 Graduates and Non-Graduates – Male Students
th
9 Graders in 2000-01
Nation
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Dist. of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
All
Students
(#)
Male
Students
(%)
Male
Students
(#)
3,913,738
51.9
60,245
11,348
70,124
36,055
476,142
61,097
40,423
10,366
4,207
238,161
126,793
15,915
19,471
163,806
79,825
40,660
38,780
54,187
53,879
17,134
71,705
59,213
142,663
70,236
39,386
75,173
13,321
24,122
29,972
17,578
95,228
28,944
245,311
111,745
9,204
159,724
49,667
44,574
153,523
12,557
63,776
10,920
73,141
355,019
35,538
8,594
98,062
87,238
23,592
77,683
7,711
52.5
52.4
51.6
51.9
51.3
51.5
50.5
52.0
52.9
53.2
52.6
53.7
nr
--51.7
51.8
51.3
51.7
53.1
51.8
52.1
51.7
nr
--51.6
51.3
51.5
51.6
52.1
52.1
53.0
51.7
50.3
52.1
51.2
52.4
51.4
52.4
51.5
nr
--nr
--51.6
52.0
52.0
nr
--52.6
50.4
51.7
52.0
nr
--52.9
51.7
52.2
Graduation
Rate
Male
Projection of 2003-04 Outcomes
(%)
Graduates
Male
(#)
Non-Graduates
Male
(#)
2,031,611
64.1
1,302,263
729,348
31,618
5,950
36,196
18,717
244,316
31,491
20,430
5,389
2,227
126,784
66,726
8,552
nr
--84,621
41,356
20,842
20,049
28,765
27,930
8,931
37,086
nr
--73,588
36,063
20,289
38,825
6,936
12,575
15,886
9,087
47,934
15,076
125,696
58,564
4,728
83,708
25,556
nr
--nr
--6,476
33,179
5,679
nr
--186,873
17,900
4,444
50,983
nr
--12,485
40,144
4,023
56.0
60.1
nr
--68.2
64.5
65.1
73.2
58.9
54.8
47.3
50.7
62.7
nr
--71.1
67.8
74.7
71.6
62.6
57.8
67.4
70.2
nr
--71.2
75.8
51.8
69.4
73.5
72.8
50.1
nr
--81.7
56.4
57.3
59.6
80.4
67.0
69.1
nr
--nr
--71.5
nr
--76.3
nr
--61.0
79.9
nr
--68.3
nr
--67.7
74.2
68.8
17,706
3,576
nr
--12,765
157,584
20,501
14,955
3,174
1,220
59,969
33,830
5,362
nr
--60,166
28,039
15,569
14,355
18,007
16,144
6,019
26,034
nr
--52,395
27,336
10,510
26,945
5,098
9,155
7,959
nr
--39,162
8,503
72,024
34,904
3,801
56,084
17,659
nr
--nr
--4,630
nr
--4,333
nr
--113,993
14,302
nr
--34,821
nr
--8,452
29,787
2,768
13,912
2,374
nr
--5,952
86,732
10,990
5,475
2,215
1,007
66,815
32,896
3,190
nr
--24,455
13,317
5,273
5,694
10,758
11,786
2,912
11,052
nr
--21,193
8,727
9,779
11,880
1,838
3,420
7,927
nr
--8,772
6,573
53,672
23,660
927
27,624
7,897
nr
--nr
--1,846
nr
--1,346
nr
--72,880
3,598
nr
--16,162
nr
--4,033
10,357
1,255
Source: Common Core of Data Local Educational Agency and School Surveys, National Center for Education Statistics. Details may not sum
to totals due to rounding.
nr
Value not calculated because necessary data field(s) not reported in CCD.
* Value not reported because a reliable graduation estimate could not be calculated for this group.
†
Value not reported because there are no districts in this category.
- 14 -
The Urban Institute / Education Policy Center
Graduation Projections
Table 9:
Projections of 2003-04 Graduates and Non-Graduates – Students in Majority Minority
Districts
All Districts
Maj. Min.
Districts
Maj. Min.
Districts
Graduation
Rate
Maj. Min.
Districts
(#)
(%)
(#)
3,913,738
35.9
60,245
11,348
70,124
36,055
476,142
61,097
40,423
10,366
4,207
238,161
126,793
15,915
19,471
163,806
79,825
40,660
38,780
54,187
53,879
17,134
71,705
59,213
142,663
70,236
39,386
75,173
13,321
24,122
29,972
17,578
95,228
28,944
245,311
111,745
9,204
159,724
49,667
44,574
153,523
12,557
63,776
10,920
73,141
355,019
35,538
8,594
98,062
87,238
23,592
77,683
7,711
34.5
14.6
37.7
20.7
68.7
23.4
26.9
12.6
100.0
40.0
40.6
100.0
0.8
31.5
9.1
---†
8.0
0.6
41.9
---†
43.6
22.5
19.7
10.9
47.7
16.3
7.3
1.3
68.2
---†
33.5
81.7
50.5
37.2
6.0
20.2
20.8
1.4
21.1
18.4
43.2
4.8
nr
--61.3
0.7
---†
21.8
10.5
---†
10.9
0.8
th
9 Graders in 2000-01
Nation
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Dist. of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Projection of 2003-04 Outcomes
(%)
Graduates
Maj. Min.
Districts
(#)
Non-Graduates
Maj. Min.
Districts
(#)
1,405,251
56.4
792,561
612,689
20,759
1,653
26,454
7,481
326,961
14,319
10,880
1,307
4,207
95,277
51,486
15,915
149
51,536
7,244
---†
3,097
307
22,581
---†
31,245
13,294
28,050
7,665
18,774
12,255
973
304
20,450
---†
31,862
23,637
123,952
41,566
553
32,330
10,322
641
32,366
2,307
27,538
519
nr
--217,526
263
---†
21,372
9,118
---†
8,436
58
57.0
46.0
59.0
61.1
64.1
45.5
60.1
52.8
65.2
49.6
46.8
66.0
44.7
51.8
42.4
---†
57.3
58.9
62.3
---†
69.3
48.8
44.4
63.9
52.7
52.6
53.7
---*
51.9
---†
---*
60.1
40.0
59.8
53.9
40.6
60.1
70.3
46.2
78.1
44.5
58.6
nr
--59.5
70.6
---†
61.0
59.7
---†
46.1
60.4
11,833
760
15,608
4,571
209,582
6,515
6,539
690
2,743
47,257
24,095
10,504
67
26,696
3,071
---†
1,775
181
14,068
---†
21,653
6,487
12,454
4,898
9,894
6,446
523
---*
10,614
---†
---*
14,206
49,581
24,856
298
13,126
6,204
451
14,953
1,802
12,254
304
nr
--129,428
186
---†
13,037
5,443
---†
3,889
35
8,926
893
10,846
2,910
117,379
7,804
4,341
617
1,464
48,020
27,391
5,411
82
24,840
4,173
---†
1,322
126
8,513
---†
9,592
6,807
15,596
2,767
8,880
5,809
450
---*
9,836
---†
---*
9,431
74,371
16,710
255
19,204
4,118
190
17,413
505
15,284
215
nr
--88,098
77
---†
8,335
3,675
---†
4,547
23
Source: Common Core of Data Local Educational Agency and School Surveys, National Center for Education Statistics. Details may not sum
to totals due to rounding.
nr
Value not calculated because necessary data field(s) not reported in CCD.
* Value not reported because a reliable graduation estimate could not be calculated for this group.
†
Value not reported because there are no districts in this category.
- 15 -
The Urban Institute / Education Policy Center
Graduation Projections
Table 10:
Projections of 2003-04 Graduates and Non-Graduates – Students in Majority White Districts
All Districts
Maj. White
Districts
Maj. White
Districts
Graduation
Rate
Maj. White
Districts
(#)
(%)
(#)
3,913,738
64.1
60,245
11,348
70,124
36,055
476,142
61,097
40,423
10,366
4,207
238,161
126,793
15,915
19,471
163,806
79,825
40,660
38,780
54,187
53,879
17,134
71,705
59,213
142,663
70,236
39,386
75,173
13,321
24,122
29,972
17,578
95,228
28,944
245,311
111,745
9,204
159,724
49,667
44,574
153,523
12,557
63,776
10,920
73,141
355,019
35,538
8,594
98,062
87,238
23,592
77,683
7,711
65.5
85.4
62.3
79.3
31.3
76.6
73.1
87.4
---†
60.0
59.4
---†
99.2
68.5
90.9
100.0
92.0
99.4
58.1
100.0
56.4
77.5
80.3
89.1
52.3
83.7
92.7
98.7
31.8
100.0
66.5
18.3
49.5
62.8
94.0
79.8
79.2
98.6
78.9
81.6
56.8
95.2
nr
--38.7
99.3
100.0
78.2
89.5
100.0
89.1
99.2
th
9 Graders in 2000-01
Nation
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Dist. of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Projection of 2003-04 Outcomes
(%)
Graduates
Maj. White
Districts
(#)
Non-Graduates
Maj. White
Districts
(#)
2,508,487
74.1
1,858,789
649,698
39,486
9,695
43,670
28,574
149,181
46,778
29,543
9,059
---†
142,884
75,307
---†
19,322
112,270
72,581
40,660
35,683
53,880
31,298
17,134
40,460
45,919
114,613
62,571
20,612
62,918
12,348
23,818
9,522
17,578
63,366
5,307
121,359
70,179
8,651
127,394
39,345
43,933
121,157
10,250
36,238
10,401
nr
--137,493
35,275
8,594
76,690
78,120
23,592
69,247
7,653
63.6
66.3
72.5
73.5
78.1
75.2
82.0
65.8
---†
55.2
61.2
---†
79.9
82.9
75.0
78.2
75.6
65.4
65.7
72.1
79.6
75.1
77.4
80.1
62.6
76.3
78.6
77.4
60.6
73.9
88.9
65.4
78.5
65.7
81.2
77.3
73.0
73.6
82.2
72.7
54.5
79.9
nr
--72.8
78.5
77.9
76.6
63.0
70.7
81.4
72.5
25,113
6,428
31,661
21,002
116,510
35,177
24,225
5,961
---†
78,872
46,088
---†
15,438
93,072
54,436
31,796
26,976
35,238
20,563
12,354
32,206
34,485
88,710
50,119
12,903
48,006
9,706
18,435
5,770
12,990
56,332
3,471
95,267
46,108
7,025
98,476
28,722
32,335
99,591
7,452
19,750
8,310
nr
--100,095
27,691
6,695
58,745
49,216
16,680
56,367
5,548
14,373
3,267
12,009
7,572
32,671
11,601
5,318
3,098
---†
64,012
29,219
---†
3,884
19,198
18,145
8,864
8,707
18,642
10,735
4,780
8,254
11,434
25,903
12,452
7,709
14,912
2,642
5,383
3,752
4,588
7,034
1,836
26,092
24,071
1,626
28,918
10,623
11,598
21,566
2,798
16,488
2,091
nr
--37,398
7,584
1,899
17,945
28,904
6,912
12,880
2,105
Source: Common Core of Data Local Educational Agency and School Surveys, National Center for Education Statistics. Details may not sum
to totals due to rounding.
nr
Value not calculated because necessary data field(s) not reported in CCD.
* Value not reported because a reliable graduation estimate could not be calculated for this group.
†
Value not reported because there are no districts in this category.
- 16 -
The Urban Institute / Education Policy Center
Graduation Projections
Table 11:
Projections of 2003-04 Graduates and Non-Graduates – Students in High Poverty Districts
th
9 Graders in 2000-01
All Districts
Nation
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Dist. of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
(#)
High
Poverty
Districts
(%)
High
Poverty
Districts
(#)
3,913,738
47.0
60,245
11,348
70,124
36,055
476,142
61,097
40,423
10,366
4,207
238,161
126,793
15,915
19,471
163,806
79,825
40,660
38,780
54,187
53,879
17,134
71,705
59,213
142,663
70,236
39,386
75,173
13,321
24,122
29,972
17,578
95,228
28,944
245,311
111,745
9,204
159,724
49,667
44,574
153,523
12,557
63,776
10,920
73,141
355,019
35,538
8,594
98,062
87,238
23,592
77,683
7,711
69.9
10.8
nr
--67.2
55.7
26.0
nr
--12.0
100.0
67.8
57.0
100.0
35.2
nr
--26.2
20.1
42.0
72.3
91.4
25.2
31.5
28.9
28.7
16.1
86.1
37.6
11.2
30.4
2.1
0.1
26.8
94.5
56.6
43.3
18.3
26.8
65.1
44.3
30.0
31.1
69.8
16.0
nr
--61.9
17.6
5.7
25.1
nr
--81.6
15.0
89.4
Graduation
Rate
High Poverty
Districts
Projection of 2003-04 Outcomes
(%)
Graduates
High Poverty
Districts
(#)
Non-Graduates
High Poverty
Districts
(#)
1,840,683
57.6
1,060,234
780,450
42,097
1,225
nr
--24,227
265,232
15,870
nr
--1,245
4,207
161,537
72,245
15,915
6,851
nr
--20,933
8,184
16,291
39,173
49,262
4,323
22,622
17,088
40,948
11,282
33,930
28,235
1,491
7,329
643
21
25,548
27,353
138,843
48,421
1,682
42,816
32,353
19,736
46,045
3,904
44,539
1,747
nr
--219,869
6,268
491
24,652
nr
--19,253
11,626
6,890
59.0
---*
nr
--69.3
61.4
51.7
nr
--55.1
65.2
52.5
46.4
66.0
75.7
nr
--57.2
66.1
64.6
62.4
64.3
68.3
61.4
49.1
55.5
68.1
57.1
63.9
61.6
61.7
69.1
64.8
---*
60.4
43.1
60.6
72.1
45.5
67.5
72.7
54.7
69.5
44.2
76.5
nr
--59.4
75.9
59.1
61.7
nr
--71.1
53.4
72.1
24,830
---*
nr
--16,796
162,845
8,199
nr
--686
2,742
84,796
33,496
10,497
5,188
nr
--11,970
5,413
10,524
24,440
31,676
2,953
13,901
8,397
22,737
7,687
19,370
18,034
919
4,524
444
14
---*
16,518
59,846
29,330
1,213
19,502
21,825
14,344
25,180
2,712
19,685
1,336
nr
--130,559
4,759
290
15,216
nr
--13,698
6,211
4,968
17,267
---*
nr
--7,431
102,387
7,671
nr
--559
1,465
76,741
38,749
5,418
1,663
nr
--8,963
2,771
5,767
14,733
17,586
1,370
8,721
8,691
18,211
3,595
14,560
10,201
572
2,805
198
7
---*
10,835
78,997
19,091
469
23,314
10,528
5,392
20,865
1,192
24,854
411
nr
--89,310
1,509
201
9,436
nr
--5,555
5,415
1,922
Source: Common Core of Data Local Educational Agency and School Surveys, National Center for Education Statistics. Details may not sum
to totals due to rounding.
nr
Value not calculated because necessary data field(s) not reported in CCD.
* Value not reported because a reliable graduation estimate could not be calculated for this group.
†
Value not reported because there are no districts in this category.
- 17 -
The Urban Institute / Education Policy Center
Graduation Projections
Table 12:
Projections of 2003-04 Graduates and Non-Graduates – Students in Low Poverty Districts
th
9 Graders in 2000-01
All Districts
Nation
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Dist. of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
(#)
Low
Poverty
Districts
(%)
Low
Poverty
Districts
(#)
3,913,738
53.0
60,245
11,348
70,124
36,055
476,142
61,097
40,423
10,366
4,207
238,161
126,793
15,915
19,471
163,806
79,825
40,660
38,780
54,187
53,879
17,134
71,705
59,213
142,663
70,236
39,386
75,173
13,321
24,122
29,972
17,578
95,228
28,944
245,311
111,745
9,204
159,724
49,667
44,574
153,523
12,557
63,776
10,920
73,141
355,019
35,538
8,594
98,062
87,238
23,592
77,683
7,711
30.1
89.2
nr
--32.8
44.3
74.0
nr
--88.0
---†
32.2
43.0
---†
64.8
nr
--73.8
79.9
58.0
27.7
8.6
74.8
68.5
71.1
71.3
83.9
13.9
62.4
88.8
69.6
97.9
99.9
73.2
5.5
43.4
56.7
81.7
73.2
34.9
55.7
70.0
68.9
30.2
84.0
nr
--38.1
82.4
94.3
74.9
nr
--18.4
85.0
10.6
Graduation
Rate
Low Poverty
Districts
Projection of 2003-04 Outcomes
(%)
Graduates
Low Poverty
Districts
(#)
Non-Graduates
Low Poverty
Districts
(#)
2,073,055
76.0
1,575,521
497,533
18,148
10,123
nr
--11,828
210,910
45,227
nr
--9,121
---†
76,624
54,548
---†
12,620
nr
--58,892
32,476
22,489
15,014
4,617
12,811
49,083
42,125
101,715
58,954
5,456
46,938
11,830
16,793
29,329
17,557
69,680
1,591
106,468
63,324
7,522
116,908
17,314
24,838
107,478
8,653
19,237
9,173
nr
--135,150
29,270
8,103
73,410
nr
--4,339
66,057
821
67.5
65.8
nr
--74.5
76.8
74.1
nr
--65.0
---†
54.1
66.7
---†
82.0
nr
--77.2
81.2
81.2
72.7
66.0
73.2
80.9
77.2
78.6
80.4
63.2
78.0
78.6
84.9
54.3
73.9
88.9
76.0
80.4
65.8
81.2
78.5
75.2
74.2
83.4
75.1
62.7
79.8
nr
--73.3
81.4
79.0
76.9
nr
--67.9
81.7
74.2
12,247
6,661
nr
--8,817
162,008
33,508
nr
--5,932
---†
41,476
36,356
---†
10,349
nr
--45,436
26,371
18,264
10,918
3,048
9,379
39,719
32,507
79,976
47,428
3,451
36,615
9,295
14,265
15,940
12,968
61,953
1,209
85,550
41,696
6,110
91,728
13,016
18,435
89,675
6,495
12,057
7,323
nr
--99,129
23,836
6,403
56,463
nr
--2,945
53,957
609
5,901
3,462
nr
--3,011
48,902
11,719
nr
--3,189
---†
35,148
18,192
---†
2,271
nr
--13,456
6,105
4,225
4,096
1,569
3,433
9,364
9,618
21,739
11,526
2,005
10,323
2,535
2,528
13,389
4,589
7,727
382
20,918
21,628
1,412
25,180
4,298
6,403
17,803
2,158
7,180
1,850
nr
--36,021
5,434
1,700
16,947
nr
--1,394
12,099
212
Source: Common Core of Data Local Educational Agency and School Surveys, National Center for Education Statistics. Details may not sum
to totals due to rounding.
nr
Value not calculated because necessary data field(s) not reported in CCD.
* Value not reported because a reliable graduation estimate could not be calculated for this group.
†
Value not reported because there are no districts in this category.
- 18 -
The Urban Institute / Education Policy Center
Graduation Projections
Table 13:
Projections of 2003-04 Graduates and Non-Graduates – Students in Urban Districts
All Districts
Urban
Districts
Urban
Districts
Graduation
Rate
Urban
Districts
(#)
(%)
(#)
3,913,738
29.1
60,245
11,348
70,124
36,055
476,142
61,097
40,423
10,366
4,207
238,161
126,793
15,915
19,471
163,806
79,825
40,660
38,780
54,187
53,879
17,134
71,705
59,213
142,663
70,236
39,386
75,173
13,321
24,122
29,972
17,578
95,228
28,944
245,311
111,745
9,204
159,724
49,667
44,574
153,523
12,557
63,776
10,920
73,141
355,019
35,538
8,594
98,062
87,238
23,592
77,683
7,711
17.8
33.2
57.7
25.4
42.0
33.4
25.4
5.1
100.0
10.7
15.1
---†
19.8
32.6
30.7
27.3
25.8
10.5
29.7
10.1
12.5
35.7
23.0
16.3
11.0
20.0
19.6
35.2
17.0
21.0
12.4
39.6
48.5
30.2
26.8
23.1
26.4
26.0
24.2
35.8
17.3
26.8
27.0
44.8
10.1
3.8
25.9
23.9
8.5
32.7
27.3
th
9 Graders in 2000-01
Nation
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Dist. of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Projection of 2003-04 Outcomes
(%)
Graduates
Urban
Districts
(#)
Non-Graduates
Urban
Districts
(#)
1,137,628
57.5
654,136
483,492
10,715
3,762
40,495
9,143
199,800
20,405
10,252
532
4,207
25,426
19,149
---†
3,858
53,325
24,496
11,114
9,990
5,704
15,984
1,735
8,983
21,140
32,854
11,459
4,335
15,005
2,617
8,484
5,093
3,699
11,779
11,451
118,948
33,739
2,465
36,869
13,119
11,595
37,102
4,498
11,021
2,927
19,778
158,978
3,589
325
25,364
20,849
1,994
25,369
2,108
57.8
69.4
---*
62.1
61.0
60.6
60.6
57.2
65.2
51.6
40.0
---†
85.7
55.3
61.1
70.3
59.6
67.8
63.8
66.1
47.9
55.3
55.7
70.8
45.4
61.5
81.0
69.1
55.2
70.8
---*
60.1
39.8
65.0
74.6
41.9
59.0
79.0
52.2
69.3
46.1
71.4
47.5
58.6
71.6
59.4
62.3
55.6
71.8
68.1
66.9
6,193
2,611
---*
5,678
121,878
12,365
6,213
304
2,743
13,120
7,660
---†
3,306
29,489
14,967
7,813
5,954
3,867
10,198
1,147
4,303
11,690
18,300
8,113
1,968
9,228
2,120
5,862
2,811
2,619
---*
6,882
47,341
21,930
1,839
15,448
7,740
9,160
19,367
3,117
5,081
2,090
9,395
93,161
2,570
193
15,802
11,592
1,432
17,276
1,410
4,522
1,151
---*
3,465
77,922
8,040
4,039
228
1,464
12,306
11,489
---†
552
23,836
9,529
3,301
4,036
1,837
5,786
588
4,680
9,450
14,554
3,346
2,367
5,777
497
2,622
2,282
1,080
---*
4,569
71,607
11,809
626
21,421
5,379
2,435
17,735
1,381
5,940
837
10,383
65,817
1,019
132
9,562
9,257
562
8,093
698
Source: Common Core of Data Local Educational Agency and School Surveys, National Center for Education Statistics. Details may not sum
to totals due to rounding.
nr
Value not calculated because necessary data field(s) not reported in CCD.
* Value not reported because a reliable graduation estimate could not be calculated for this group.
†
Value not reported because there are no districts in this category.
- 19 -
The Urban Institute / Education Policy Center
Graduation Projections
Table 14:
Projections of 2003-04 Graduates and Non-Graduates – Students in Suburban Districts
All Districts
Suburban
Districts
Suburban
Districts
Graduation
Rate
Suburban
Districts
(#)
(%)
(#)
3,913,738
42.4
60,245
11,348
70,124
36,055
476,142
61,097
40,423
10,366
4,207
238,161
126,793
15,915
19,471
163,806
79,825
40,660
38,780
54,187
53,879
17,134
71,705
59,213
142,663
70,236
39,386
75,173
13,321
24,122
29,972
17,578
95,228
28,944
245,311
111,745
9,204
159,724
49,667
44,574
153,523
12,557
63,776
10,920
73,141
355,019
35,538
8,594
98,062
87,238
23,592
77,683
7,711
38.7
---†
25.1
16.3
53.1
45.2
53.7
68.3
---†
78.0
41.5
100.0
11.9
47.4
25.2
11.4
20.0
31.6
41.4
16.0
76.0
53.5
43.6
45.6
14.4
38.0
1.8
9.4
69.9
27.1
75.4
10.1
34.5
14.5
7.7
43.8
26.1
37.8
43.9
49.7
36.2
4.4
33.4
33.8
64.4
13.8
41.5
49.2
25.6
27.0
---†
th
9 Graders in 2000-01
Nation
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Dist. of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Projection of 2003-04 Outcomes
(%)
Graduates
Suburban
Districts
(#)
Non-Graduates
Suburban
Districts
(#)
1,660,219
72.7
1,206,979
453,240
23,293
---†
17,626
5,865
252,904
27,595
21,701
7,083
---†
185,817
52,596
15,915
2,321
77,597
20,133
4,627
7,757
17,108
22,300
2,745
54,482
31,661
62,238
32,043
5,691
28,600
237
2,257
20,942
4,756
71,847
2,932
84,597
16,158
706
69,956
12,953
16,845
67,433
6,237
23,091
481
24,448
119,923
22,892
1,187
40,666
42,957
6,051
20,969
---†
62.8
---†
72.4
74.7
74.7
71.9
81.8
63.2
---†
53.1
63.4
66.0
88.0
83.9
75.8
79.0
79.7
61.1
64.6
75.4
79.2
77.8
77.8
80.1
59.1
77.0
87.2
78.8
51.7
72.4
86.8
56.1
80.0
68.2
79.1
77.6
76.3
71.4
83.2
75.3
58.7
78.1
63.9
70.4
80.9
75.7
79.9
66.8
67.4
85.0
---†
14,628
---†
12,761
4,381
188,919
19,841
17,751
4,476
---†
98,669
33,346
10,504
2,042
65,104
15,261
3,655
6,182
10,453
14,406
2,070
43,150
24,632
48,421
25,666
3,363
22,022
207
1,779
10,827
3,443
62,363
1,645
67,678
11,020
558
54,286
9,883
12,027
56,104
4,696
13,554
376
15,622
84,426
18,520
899
32,492
28,695
4,078
17,824
---†
8,665
---†
4,865
1,484
63,985
7,754
3,950
2,607
---†
87,148
19,250
5,411
279
12,493
4,872
972
1,575
6,655
7,894
675
11,332
7,029
13,817
6,377
2,328
6,578
30
478
10,115
1,313
9,484
1,287
16,919
5,138
148
15,670
3,070
4,818
11,329
1,541
9,537
105
8,826
35,497
4,372
288
8,174
14,262
1,973
3,145
---†
Source: Common Core of Data Local Educational Agency and School Surveys, National Center for Education Statistics. Details may not sum
to totals due to rounding.
nr
Value not calculated because necessary data field(s) not reported in CCD.
* Value not reported because a reliable graduation estimate could not be calculated for this group.
†
Value not reported because there are no districts in this category.
- 20 -
The Urban Institute / Education Policy Center
Graduation Projections
Table 15:
Projections of 2003-04 Graduates and Non-Graduates – Students in Small/Large Town
Districts
(#)
Town
Districts
(%)
Town
Districts
(#)
Graduation
Rate
Town
Districts
(%)
3,913,738
11.6
452,067
69.1
312,378
139,689
60,245
11,348
70,124
36,055
476,142
61,097
40,423
10,366
4,207
238,161
126,793
15,915
19,471
163,806
79,825
40,660
38,780
54,187
53,879
17,134
71,705
59,213
142,663
70,236
39,386
75,173
13,321
24,122
29,972
17,578
95,228
28,944
245,311
111,745
9,204
159,724
49,667
44,574
153,523
12,557
63,776
10,920
73,141
355,019
35,538
8,594
98,062
87,238
23,592
77,683
7,711
17.5
33.7
9.7
29.9
2.7
8.2
2.0
11.5
---†
4.1
19.1
---†
44.0
10.2
16.2
32.1
26.5
22.2
14.2
23.0
2.8
0.4
9.5
17.9
31.8
18.0
44.2
25.7
7.8
21.3
---†
36.0
5.3
13.6
22.8
9.4
23.2
22.4
10.8
1.8
20.1
27.4
17.9
9.9
18.6
32.6
6.2
11.5
23.6
19.0
56.2
10,514
3,821
6,784
10,784
12,772
5,034
819
1,196
---†
9,659
24,214
---†
8,573
16,757
12,945
13,047
10,281
12,051
7,660
3,948
2,041
209
13,601
12,560
12,530
13,542
5,883
6,195
2,343
3,748
---†
10,430
13,066
15,241
2,102
15,067
11,516
9,991
16,624
221
12,808
2,991
13,121
35,189
6,621
2,804
6,057
10,058
5,569
14,745
4,335
61.9
69.6
58.0
71.4
71.4
70.6
---*
69.8
---†
52.7
50.0
---†
76.1
76.6
72.9
79.1
74.6
69.6
64.9
67.1
78.1
68.4
76.5
80.4
57.2
73.0
77.3
81.9
69.5
75.5
---†
62.8
71.0
61.3
83.3
73.2
73.3
73.5
78.0
87.6
41.5
85.0
60.2
67.2
84.0
82.6
70.6
61.8
71.0
78.5
72.8
6,508
2,659
3,935
7,700
9,119
3,554
---*
835
---†
5,090
12,107
---†
6,524
12,836
9,437
10,320
7,670
8,387
4,971
2,649
1,594
143
10,405
10,098
7,167
9,886
4,548
5,074
1,628
2,830
---†
6,550
9,277
9,343
1,751
11,029
8,441
7,343
12,967
194
5,315
2,542
7,899
23,647
5,562
2,316
4,276
6,216
3,954
11,575
3,156
4,006
1,162
2,849
3,084
3,653
1,480
---*
361
---†
4,569
12,107
---†
2,049
3,921
3,508
2,727
2,611
3,664
2,689
1,299
447
66
3,196
2,462
5,363
3,656
1,335
1,121
715
918
---†
3,880
3,789
5,898
351
4,038
3,075
2,648
3,657
27
7,493
449
5,222
11,542
1,059
488
1,781
3,842
1,615
3,170
1,179
th
9 Graders in 2000-01
All Districts
Nation
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Dist. of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Projection of 2003-04 Outcomes
Graduates
Town Districts
(#)
Non-Graduates
Town Districts
(#)
Source: Common Core of Data Local Educational Agency and School Surveys, National Center for Education Statistics. Details may not sum
to totals due to rounding.
nr
Value not calculated because necessary data field(s) not reported in CCD.
* Value not reported because a reliable graduation estimate could not be calculated for this group.
†
Value not reported because there are no districts in this category.
- 21 -
The Urban Institute / Education Policy Center
Graduation Projections
Table 16:
Projections of 2003-04 Graduates and Non-Graduates – Students in Rural Districts
All Districts
Rural
Districts
Rural
Districts
Graduation
Rate
Rural
Districts
(#)
(%)
(#)
3,913,738
17.0
60,245
11,348
70,124
36,055
476,142
61,097
40,423
10,366
4,207
238,161
126,793
15,915
19,471
163,806
79,825
40,660
38,780
54,187
53,879
17,134
71,705
59,213
142,663
70,236
39,386
75,173
13,321
24,122
29,972
17,578
95,228
28,944
245,311
111,745
9,204
159,724
49,667
44,574
153,523
12,557
63,776
10,920
73,141
355,019
35,538
8,594
98,062
87,238
23,592
77,683
7,711
26.1
33.2
7.4
28.5
2.2
13.2
18.9
15.0
---†
7.2
24.3
---†
24.2
9.8
27.9
29.2
27.7
35.7
14.7
50.8
8.6
10.5
23.8
20.2
42.7
24.0
34.4
29.8
5.3
30.6
12.2
14.3
11.7
41.7
42.7
23.7
24.3
13.8
21.1
12.7
26.4
41.4
21.6
11.5
6.9
49.8
26.5
15.3
42.3
21.4
16.4
th
9 Graders in 2000-01
Nation
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Dist. of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Projection of 2003-04 Outcomes
(%)
Graduates
Rural
Districts
(#)
Non-Graduates
Rural
Districts
(#)
663,824
71.9
477,289
186,535
15,723
3,765
5,219
10,263
10,666
8,063
7,651
1,555
---†
17,259
30,834
---†
4,719
16,127
22,251
11,872
10,752
19,324
7,935
8,706
6,199
6,203
33,970
14,174
16,830
18,026
4,584
7,186
1,594
5,375
11,602
4,131
28,700
46,607
3,931
37,832
12,079
6,143
32,364
1,601
16,856
4,521
15,794
40,929
2,436
4,278
25,975
13,374
9,978
16,600
1,268
61.1
50.5
55.5
72.9
71.7
77.1
82.3
68.2
---†
54.8
55.1
---†
77.6
81.3
79.3
83.4
79.9
65.6
64.8
74.3
73.4
77.2
76.4
80.6
61.1
74.9
73.6
84.8
69.9
75.5
89.3
64.8
73.7
61.5
78.9
80.2
72.9
69.5
82.9
74.8
47.7
81.2
56.7
71.5
82.3
77.1
74.4
66.0
71.8
83.1
77.4
9,607
1,901
2,897
7,482
7,648
6,217
6,297
1,061
---†
9,458
16,990
---†
3,662
13,111
17,645
9,901
8,591
12,677
5,142
6,469
4,550
4,789
25,953
11,424
10,283
13,501
3,374
6,094
1,114
4,058
10,361
2,677
21,152
28,663
3,102
30,341
8,806
4,269
26,830
1,198
8,040
3,671
8,955
29,264
2,005
3,298
19,325
8,827
7,164
13,795
981
6,116
1,864
2,322
2,781
3,018
1,846
1,354
494
---†
7,801
13,844
---†
1,057
3,016
4,606
1,971
2,161
6,647
2,793
2,237
1,649
1,414
8,017
2,750
6,547
4,525
1,210
1,092
480
1,317
1,241
1,454
7,548
17,944
829
7,491
3,273
1,874
5,534
403
8,816
850
6,839
11,665
431
980
6,650
4,547
2,814
2,805
287
Source: Common Core of Data Local Educational Agency and School Surveys, National Center for Education Statistics. Details may not sum
to totals due to rounding.
nr
Value not calculated because necessary data field(s) not reported in CCD.
* Value not reported because a reliable graduation estimate could not be calculated for this group.
†
Value not reported because there are no districts in this category.
- 22 -