THE URBAN
INSTITUTE
OPPORTUNITY IN AMERICA
The Declining Importance
of Class
A series on
economic and
social mobility
Daniel P. McMurrer and Isabel V. Sawhill
E
nsuring equal chances for all to succeed is a
growth slowdown has almost completely offset
value Americans have long embraced. They
the opportunity gains that have come from the
are more likely than other nationalities to
declining importance of class.
believe in the importance of talent and effort in
shaping a person’s life prospects. They are also
Class Still Matters
more likely to reject social class as an acceptable determinant of whether someone succeeds
Opportunity is here defined as the extent to
or fails.1 Given such a strong consensus on the
which an individual’s economic and social stagoal of equal opportunity, the Amertus is determined by his or her own
ican public has paid remarkably
skills and effort rather than by
Individual opporlittle attention to how close our
class of origin. It is typically
tunity has increased, but
society is to achieving it. In
measured as the relationship
slower economic growth has
the hope of beginning to fill almost offset this gain. While indi- between parents and their
this gap, this brief looks at viduals are increasingly free to move offspring2 on various indihow much circumstances
cators of class—occupafrom their roots, fewer destinations
of birth affect an individ- represent improvements. For those con- tional status and income
ual’s chances of success cerned about the material well-being of are common ones.3 The
in today’s America.
the younger generation, this is not a more closely the status of
Evidence suggests that
individuals reflects the
welcome message. But for those
family background matters
status
of their parents, the
concerned about the fairness of
quite a bit—that we are still
less
opportunity
exists in a
the process, the news is
far from being a society that
society
and
the
more
class
unambiguously good.
provides everyone an equal
matters. Conversely, the more
chance to succeed. At the same time,
independent the overall parent-offreal progress has been made. Inherited advanspring relationship, the less class matters.
tages of class play a smaller role than they
In today’s America, the socioeconomic
used to in shaping the success of individual
class into which individuals are born signifiAmericans, with larger numbers now moving
cantly affects their status as adults. Even in an
beyond their origins. In this sense, opportuniopen, fair, and dynamic society, of course, we
ty has increased.
would expect some relationship between the
But in another sense, it has not. In the past,
status of parents and their adult children.4
the dynamism of the U.S. economy ensured
Genetic inheritance alone is likely to account
that each generation’s prospects were better
for some of this (although estimates suggest
than those of the last one, irrespective of social
that it would be an extremely small fraction).
origins. Almost all Americans were able to
Further, there will always be a tendency for parachieve more than their parents. As economic
ents who occupy positions of high status—
growth has slowed in recent decades, however,
whether through their own achievements or for
so has opportunity. The depressing effect of this
other reasons—to try to extend their advantages
No. 4, April 1997
Probability That a Son’s Long-Run Status Is in Specified
Quintile, if the Father’s Income Is at the 25th Percentile
No. 4
OPPORTUNITY IN AMERICA
2
to their children. This is a tendency for
one study.6 Other studies have conthat has largely offset the declining
which public policy can probably
firmed this decline and have shown
importance of background. One study
never fully compensate as long as
that it is a continuing one, evident for
finds that the two trends have almost
children are reared within their own
at least the last three generations and
completely offset one another, resultfamilies. Thus, it is almost impossible
probably longer.7
ing in little overall change in the rates
to imagine a society in which parents’
It has been driven at least in part
at which individuals move from the
and children’s outcomes are completeby the growing number of Americans
class into which they were born.9 The
ly independent.
who have access to higher education.
only difference has come in the comThe link between the incomes and
The percentage of adults who are colposition of upward mobility. A larger
occupations of parents and offspring in
lege graduates, for example, increased
proportion of upward mobility across
the United States, however, is stronger
from 8 percent in 1960 to 23 percent in
generations is attributable to the
than would be expected even given
1995. Attainment of a college degree
declining importance of class and a
these considerations. Recent studies
has been shown to greatly attenuate the
smaller proportion to economic
have found an observed correlation
link between occupational origins and
growth (chart 3). (If individual
between the incomes of fathers and sons
occupational destinations. However,
opportunity increases in an economy
of about 0.4.5 This means, for example,
little or no change has occurred for
that is not growing at all, intergenthat an adult son whose father’s income
workers without a college degree.
erational churning between the
was a quarter of the way from the botsocioeconomic classes will increase,
tom of the income distribution (at the
but there may be no net improvement
25th percentile) would have a
for younger generations over
Chart 1
50 percent chance of having an
their parents.)10
Sons
of
Fathers
with
Low
Incomes
Are
More
Likely
income in the bottom two-fifths
This change in the
to Have Lower Incomes as Adults
(chart 1). Conversely, a son
composition of upward mo30%
whose father’s income was at
bility—growing individual
the 95th percentile (not shown)
opportunity and lagging eco25%
would have a 76 percent chance
nomic growth—is important,
20%
of being above the median,
because it will be felt differincluding a 42 percent chance
ently by different groups,
15%
of being in the top 20 percent.
depending on where they
10%
Occupations are similarly
start. Everyone is hurt by
correlated across generations,
slower growth. But individu5%
with children of professionals
als from more modest back0%
significantly more likely to
grounds will benefit from a
Lowest
2nd
Middle
4th
Highest
become professionals as
more open, less class-based
Income Quintiles
adults, and children of blue Source: Solon (1989, 1992).
social structure. On balance,
Note: Assumes an intergenerational income correlation of 0.4 and normal income
collar workers significantly
according to the data, they
distribution.
more likely to work in blue
should come out ahead. For
collar occupations (chart 2). For
individuals from more privileged backexample, men with white collar origrounds, in contrast, the increased indiThe Offsetting Effect
gins are almost twice as likely as
vidual “opportunity” implied by the
of Slower Economic
those with blue collar origins to end
declining importance of class repreGrowth
up in upper white collar jobs.
sents an increased likelihood of moving
Thus, origins continue to matter.
down the social scale. They are more
likely than before to experience a drop
Children from advantaged backFor most of our history, vigorous
in status relative to their parents. Both
grounds are likely to do well as adults,
economic growth has fueled continutrends (economic growth and individand children from disadvantaged backing change in the occupational strucual opportunity) represent losses for
grounds are more likely to do badly.
ture of the U.S. economy. Farm work
them.
But this is not the end of the story.
was replaced by better-paying factory
jobs, which, in turn, were replaced by
growing numbers of even more highClass Matters Less
Summing Up
ly paid white collar positions. But in
Than Previously
the last quarter century, U.S. economThe United States remains a sociClass may still matter in the
ic growth has declined,8 slowing the
ety in which class matters. Children
United States, but not as much as it
pace of occupational change along
who grow up in privileged families
used to. The effect of parents’ occuwith it. The economy itself is no
are more likely to become highly paid
pational status on that of their offlonger creating as many chances for
professionals, for example, than are
spring declined by about one-third in
individuals to move up the economic
children raised in more disadvantaged
less than a generation, according to
ladder as used to be the case—a trend
households. Still, the effects of family
2. Because of data limitations,
many of the studies in this area have
excluded women, focusing on the relationship between fathers and sons.
3. To analyze income relationships, researchers compare the incomes
of parents (frequently only fathers) at a
certain age with the incomes of their
children at a similar age. Analysis of
occupational relationships is more complicated. This comparison also requires
ranking occupations on a hierarchical
scale, which is usually based on a
combination of the average income and
average years of schooling associated
with each occupation.
Percentage of Males in Different
Occupational Category Than Their Father
Probability of Occupational Class for
Sons from Different Occupational Origins
1. See, e.g., Seymour Martin Lipset,
American Exceptionalism, W.W. Norton
(1996).
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
OPPORTUNITY IN AMERICA
Notes
If less-privileged individuals reproduce more
rapidly than the more
privileged, then more
people will be able to
experience upward mobility—even in the
absence of economic
growth.
70%
No. 4
(1989); and David J. Zimmerman,
4. For a more complete discussion
background have declined in recent
“Regression Toward Mediocrity in
of
how
much
opportunity
might
exist
in
an
years. Success is less likely to be
Economic Stature,” American Economic
open
society,
see
Daniel
P.
McMurrer,
inherited than it was in earlier years,
Review 82:409-429 (1992).
Mark
Condon,
and
Isabel
V.
Sawhill,
suggesting that the American playing
“Intergenerational
Mobility
in
the
United
field is becoming more equal.
6. Michael Hout, “More UniverStates,” Urban Institute, No. 6796 (1997),
The role of higher education in
salism,
Less Structural Mobility: The
and
Sawhill
and
McMurrer,
“Are
Justice
increasing individual opportunity is
American
Occupational Structure in the
and
Inequality
Compatible?”
Opportunity
notable. Educational attainment in the
1980s,”
American
Journal of Sociology
in
America
series,
Urban
Institute,
No.
2
United States has improved significant93:1358-1400
(1988).
(1996).
ly, suggesting that opportunity may
continue to grow as a result.
7. Timothy Biblarz, Vern Bengston,
The failure of the
and Alexander Bucur, “Social Mobility
Chart 2
economy to grow as
Across Three Generations,” Journal of
Sons
Are
More
Likely
to Enter Their Fathers’
rapidly as in the past is
Marriage and the Family 58:188-200
Occupation Than Any Other,
equally notable, howev(1996). See also David Grusky and
but
Still Achieve Significant Mobility
er. Even as individual
Thomas DiPrete, “Recent Trends in the
50%
opportunity has inProcess of Stratification,” Demography
Blue Collar Origins
45%
creased, the slowing of
White Collar Origins
27:617-637 (1990), and Grusky, “Amer40%
economic growth and
ican Social Mobility in the 19th and 20th
35%
the related stagnation of
Centuries,” University of Wisconsin
30%
occupational prospects
Center for Demography and Ecology,
25%
have almost offset this
Working Paper No. 86-28 (1986).
20%
gain. While individuals
15%
8.This slowdown is largely a result
are increasingly free to
10%
of
slower
productivity growth. Promove from their roots,
5%
ductivity
has
increased at an annual rate
fewer destinations rep0%
of
about
2
percent
since 1870. Between
Lower Blue Collar
Upper Blue Collar
Lower White Collar
Upper White Collar
resent improvements.
Destinations
1960
and
1973,
it
grew
3.0 percent per
For those concerned
Source: Authors’ calculations of Hout (1988) data, excluding farm origins and
year.
It
has
since
slowed
to a crawl—an
about the material well- destinations.
average
of
1.0
percent
per
year between
being of the younger
1973
and
1995.
generation, this is not a
9. Hout (1988).
welcome message. But for those conChart
3
cerned about the fairness of the
10. Different rates of
Total Intergenerational Mobility Has Remained
process, the news is unambiguously
fertility
can also affect
Generally Constant, but Its Sources Have Changed
good.
overall levels of mobility.
0%
1972-75
Due to Economic Growth
1982-85
Due to Opportunity
Source: Authors’ calculations of Hout (1988) data, using five occupational
categories.
5. Gary Solon, “Intergenerational
Income Mobility in the United States,”
American Economic Review 82:393-408
(1992); Solon, “Intergenerational Income
Mobility in the United States,” University
of Wisconsin Institute for Research on
Poverty, Discussion Paper No. 894-89
For additional analysis of issues
discussed in this brief, see Daniel P.
McMurrer, Mark Condon, and Isabel V.
Sawhill, “Intergenerational Mobility in
the United States,” Urban Institute, No.
6796 (1997).
3
No. 4
OPPORTUNITY IN AMERICA
A continuing series by Isabel V. Sawhill and Daniel P. McMurrer.
No. 1. American Dreams and Discontents: Beyond the Level
Playing Field
No. 2. Are Justice and Inequality Compatible?
No. 3. How Much Do Americans Move Up and Down the
Economic Ladder?
Isabel V. Sawhill is a Senior Fellow
and holds the Arjay Miller chair in
public policy at the Urban Institute.
Daniel P. McMurrer is a Research
Associate at the Urban Institute.
This series is funded in part by a grant
from the MacArthur Foundation.
The views expressed are those of the
authors and do not necessarily reflect
those of the Urban Institute, its board,
or its sponsors.
Copyright © 1997
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Job Opportunities
Education in the New Economy
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