Tackling the Lull!
Dr Paul Baines and Fiona Blades
Toby Thompson
Hello, my name is Toby Thompson. I am here again with Fiona
Blades, Chief Executive of MESH planning and Paul Baines, Dr Paul
Baines, Reader in Marketing here at Cranfield School of
Management.
Guys this is the second of the debates that we have had based on the
reactions to the UK Election Leaders’ Debate. Fiona, you have got a
unique mechanism to find out what people are thinking and
responding to in terms of the marketing that coming through: what
are you hearing from people?
Fiona Blades
Well what has been interesting this week is just to see the slight shift
in what is coming through in terms of people’s experiences; so
whereas the Leaders Debate was a really prominent experience
within people’s portfolio different ways they were coming across –
the political parties – this week we have seen that dip down a little
bit. We have seen TV news dip down a little bit and the things that
have been really coming up have been leaflets, which have gone
from 6% to 11% of people’s experience. This is now even higher
than posters, which were 8 and they are now at 10% of experiences
and personalised communications, which have also gone up.
So it looks as though things are moving more to the detail and the
local level.
Toby Thompson
So are you surprised by that?
Fiona Blades
I was surprised at the increase in leaflets coming through actually; I
mean that has almost doubled and that, as I say, is higher than the
posters that people are coming across.
Toby Thompson
So Paul, what is the consequence of that?
Paul Baines
If we look at the last election and the election before that, posters
tend to have a strong influence. Leaflets have a little bit less of an
influence, but they tend to be more common, people have seen
more of them. And the Leadership Debates, even at the last
election where it was a different format, has the most influence.
I think where we are is, we are in the lull of the campaign and in
psychological terms, most people will be most aware of something at
the start of the campaign and at the end of the campaign. In the
same vein, people will be starting to make up their minds. Many
people have already made up their minds. I think probably we are
going into this debate on Thursday, probably only left with one fifth
of the electorate still to make up their mind. Those posters will be
Knowledge Interchange Online© Cranfield University
April 2010
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Dr Paul Baines
having an impact, the leaflets, a bit more of impact because they are
more common. This final debate will probably tip most people over
the edge.
Toby Thompson
So from a recency point of view, a primacy recency, the next one is
really important?
Paul Baines
I think the next one is particularly important. The first one was
probably the most important, this next one will be very important.
The one in the middle, which was probably less decisive will be
forgotten about I think on Thursday.
Toby Thompson
So Fiona, what are people actually saying. In terms of leaflets
coming through doors and my local agenda, things that I want to
know about – not Westminster, but my road, let’s say outside of my
house – what are they saying?
Fiona Blades
I think that is where some people are finding that the local leaflets are
very persuasive. There was a comment from one lady in her diary
which actually said that the roads had been improved, education had
been improved and she went outside and she said I checked outside
and actually that road was better than the one where they hadn’t
made those improvements. And those things are having an impact on
people because they are thinking well should I support the local
person, who has done a good job, or do I think about the national
issues. And you can see that coming through in some of the
comments that people are saying.
Toby Thompson
Do you think there is a cause then for parties to have a change to
attitude in terms of channels and the way that they talk to the
electorate?
Paul Baines
Oh, I think there is a strong argument for tailoring your
communication, not only to the channel, but the time of which that
communication goes out and also the nature of who you are
speaking to.
One thing that is interesting is that the Tories spent quite a lot of
money in 2005 using cinema adverts – we haven’t seen or heard
anything on the cinema this time around. It is expensive, so I can
understand why. And equally, and this is very little known, but the
parties could tailor their party election broadcasts to each individual
channel. So they could do something different for Channel Four
because it has got a slightly different audience demographic,
compared to BBC1. Do they do it? No, they don’t do it.
Toby Thompson
© Cranfield University
So in terms of electorate and the people that you are polling, I am
intrigued by that. Aren’t you just capturing people that can text
very quickly onto their phone, aren’t you just capturing a certain
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Dr Paul Baines
section of the population of the floating voters?
Fiona Blades
Well, we have recruited four floating voters from an online panel and
obviously that is how many surveys are done nowadays through
online panels and we have specifically recruited four of those target
audience so that we know they are the floating voters. You don’t
have to be able to text quickly because you just have to be able to
text four characters: one which describes what the political party is;
one which is the actual occasion – so was it a Leaders’ Debate or was
it a leaflet. Another one which just says how positive did you feel
about this experience – one very negative to five very positive. And
a final text which is just and how likely did it make you to vote for
this party next time – much more likely to, it made me less likely to.
Toby Thompson
So it is pretty simply?
Fiona Blades
Very, very simple and then those texts go into their diary and then
they upload comments. So I don’t think that this is any more biased
than any of the other ways of doing polling or research.
Toby Thompson
So Paul, we are looking at maybe a hung Parliament coming up; what
is your views on how that pans out?
Paul Baines
Well, I think the Lib Dems would like it to be a hung Parliament
because that gives them some input into some opportunity to wield
some power. The Conservatives will certainly want a majority; it
maybe that they get one, but it will probably be a small majority.
However, it depends on the nature of the vote and how that vote
pans out as a result of our first past the post system. So the Lib
Dems would really need to increase their vote substantially in order
to really increase their seats. But let’s say they get a relatively large
number of seats, they will take those seats from the Labour Party
very likely because the Labour vote tends to translate from Labour to
the Lib Dems rather than directly to the Conservatives.
Something like two thirds of the vote in the past, when it has
switched, has tended to go from Labour to the Liberal Democrats as
a middle ground and I think that is what we will see this time. But
the difficulty will be that if there is a hung Parliament, how will this
hung Parliament work. If the Liberal Democrats can work with the
Conservatives – and I think Clegg can, but I am not sure about the
rest of his leadership – then perhaps a hung Parliament would work
over the five years. If the Conservatives can’t work with them – and
it may be that they can’t – then they would clearly have to go back to
the country again for a second election, just like in ’74.
Toby Thompson
© Cranfield University
So Fiona, are you hearing anything about the hung Parliament on the
kind of jungle drums that you are listening to?
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Dr Paul Baines
Fiona Blades
Well I think that when I just phoned up the office to get the hot off
the press information, what was interesting coming through there on
the leaflets was I asked the question is then an issue with Labour
knocking Conservatives in the leaflets and actually the comment I got
back is I am seeing a few comments about Labour knocking Liberals
in the leaflets. So that was coming through, but the Labour leaflets
are not persuading people to vote Labour, in fact they are
persuading people not to vote Labour.
Whereas the Liberal Democrats leaflets that are going out there are
persuading people to vote Liberal Democrat.
Toby Thompson
© Cranfield University
Guys, fantastic data. Paul thank you for your analysis and Fiona,
thank you too and we will see you very shortly on the next of these
debates.
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