vii
CHAPTER
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ITEM
1
TITLE
ABSTRACT
ABSTRAK
TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF FIGURES
LIST OF ABBREVATIONS
LIST OF SYMBOLS
LIST OF APPENDICES
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Research Background
1.2 Problem Statement
1.3 Objectives of the Study
1.4 Scope of the Study
1.5 Significance of the Study
1.6 Organization of the Report
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2
3
3
4
4

2 LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Basic Components of Cycle Hydrology
2.3 Hydrologic Modeling
2.4 Climate, Weather and Seasons of Malaysia
2.5 Rainfall Characteristics
2.6 Runoff Characteristics
2.6.1 Rainfall abstraction
2.6.2 Water Level-Discharge Data
2.7 Calibration and Validation of Data
2.8 Forecasting Technique
2.9 Conclusion
3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.0 Introduction
3.1 Probability Distributed Model (PDM) Description
3.2 Soil Moisture Storage
3.3 Surface and Subsurface Storage
3.4 Model Parameters
3.5 Data Collection and Preparation
3.5.1 The Rating Curve Parameters
3.5.2 Lost Data: Mean Imputations viii
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20
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31
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18
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11
12
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7
8
14
15
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3.5.3 Parameter Optimization using Genetic Algorithm
(GA) method
3.5.4 Calibration and Validation
3.6 Forecasting Process
3.6.1 Error Prediction
3.6.2 Box-Jenkins Method
3.6.2.1 Autoregressive Model, AR ( p )
3.6.2.2 Moving Average Model, MA ( q )
3.6.2.3 Autoregressive Moving Average Model
(ARMA)
3.6.2.4 Analyzing of Time Series
3.6.2.5 Components of Time Series
3.6.2.6 Model Identification
3.6.2.6.1 Non Stationary Series
3.6.2.6.2 Seasonal Data
3.6.2.6.3 Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial
Autocorrelation Function (PACF)
3.6.2.7 Model Estimation
3.6.2.8 Forecasting Future Values
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4.3
4
4.1
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
PARAMETER OPTIMISATION
Introduction
Site description
4.2.1 Hydrological Stations
4.2.2 Flood History
Descriptive of Data
4.3.1 Rainfall Data
4.3.2 Water Level Data
Lost Data: Mean Imputations
The Rating Curve Parameter
The Correlation Between The Rainfall and Discharge
Data
4.6.1 The correlation between the Rainfall and
Discharge
PDM calibration and validation
4.7.1 The PDM calibration
4.7.2 PDM validation
4.7.3 Performance Evaluations
4.7.3.1 Coefficient of correlation and Nash-Sutcliffe
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5.4
5
5.1
5.2
5.3
4.8
5.5
Coefficient
4.7.3.2 Root Mean Square Error
Conclusion
FORECASTING PROCESS
Introduction
The sources of data
Data Analysis using Box-Method method
5.3.1 Station A
5.3.1.1 Model Identification
5.3.1.2 Parameter Estimation Process
5.3.1.3 Forecasting process
5.3.2 Station B
5.3.2.1 Model Identification
5.3.2.2 Parameter Estimation Process
5.3.2.3 Forecasting process
Performances of Water Level
5.4.1 Station A
5.4.2 Station B
Conclusion
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111 xi

6
6.1
6.2
6.3
REFERENCES
CONCLUSION AND RECOMENDATION
Introduction
Summary and Conclusion
Recommendation
APPENDICES
Appendix A
Appendix B
Appendix C xii
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113
113-115
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118
119

LIST OF TABLES
TABLE NO
3.1
TITLE
Parameters of Probability Distributed Model
4.1
4.2
4.3
The Data Used in Every Station
Descriptive Statistics of Rainfall Data
The Maximum Rainfall in Station Rancangan
Ulu Sebul
4.4(a) Evapotranspiration Data with some Missing
Values
4.4(b) Evapotranspiration data after simple mean imputation applied
4.5(a) First Step
4.5(b) Second step
4.6(a) The optimized parameters in Station A
4.6(b) The optimized parameters in Station B
4.7 Formulas for Coefficient of Correlation and
4.8
4.9
5.1
5.2
5.3
Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient
The accuracy of model performance
The accuracy of model performance between two stations
Final Estimate of Parameters
The Forecast Values of Water Levels Using
Box-Jenkins Method
The Water Level Preferences
5.4 Final Estimate of Parameters
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103 xiii

LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE NO
3.1
TITLE
The probability distributed model (PDM) model
3.2
3.3 structure
Representation of runoff production by using basin behaviour
Representation of basin storage with different
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.7
4.1
4.2 depts. With probability density function
Direct runoff generated from the stores
The PDM model structure
Genetic Algorithms
The general structure of Genetic Algorithm (Gerr and Cheng, 1997)
The Steps of Box-Jenkins Methodology
The Districts under state of Johor
Type of Major Soils in Johor (Department of
Agriculture)
4.3
4.4
The physical map shows the selected hydrological stations in Johor
The flow path of Sungai Sayong with generated
Geographic Information System (GIS)
Histogram Chart on Rainfall Data with Elapse 4.5
Time in Station Rancangan Ulu Sebol
4.6(a) Histogram Chart on Water Level of Station A
4.6(b) Histogram Chart on Water Level of Station B
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4.7(a) The Relationship between Flow and Water Level in Station A
4.7(b) The Relationship between Flow and Water Level in Station B
4.8(a) The Correlation between rainfall and discharge in Station A
4.8(b) The Correlation between rainfall and discharge in Station B
4.8(c) The Correlation Graph between Rainfall and
4.9(a) flow data of Station A and Station B
The Relationship between Storage Capacity and
Distribution Function for Station A
4.9(b) The Relationship between Storage Capacity and
Distribution Function for Station A
4.10(a) Model Calibration before optimization procedure applied in Station A
4.10(b) Model Calibration before optimization procedure applied in Station B
4.11(a) Graph of cumulative discharge after the first initialization with the performance of model in
Station A
4.11(b) Probability distributed interacted with storage capacity for Station B
4.11(b) Graph of cumulative discharge after the second initialization with the performance of model in
Station A
4.11(b) Graph of cumulative discharge after the third initialization with the performance of model in
Station A
4.12(a) Graph of cumulative discharge after the first initialization with the performance of model in
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Station B
4.12(b) Graph of cumulative discharge after the second initialization with the performance of model in
Station B
4.12(c) Graph of cumulative discharge after the third initialization with the performance of model in
Station B
4.13(a) Model Calibration with Parameter Optimization in Station A
4.13(b) Model Calibration with Parameter Optimization
4.14(a)
5.5
5.6 in Station B
Data validation in Station A
4.14(b) Data validation in Station B
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.7
5.8
Time Series Plot for Residual of Discharge
The Trend Analysis for Residual of Discharge
Autocorrelation for
Partial Autocorrelation for
Trend Analysis Plot for
Autocorrelation for
Partial Autocorrelation for
The Graph for Forecast Values of Water Levels
5.10 in Station A
Time Series Plot for Residual of Discharge in
Station B
5.11 The Trend Analysis for Residuals of Discharge
5.12
5.13
5.14
5.15
5.16
Autocorrelation for
Partial Autocorrelation for
Trend Analysis Plot for
Autocorrelation for
Partial Autocorrelation for
5.17(a) The Graph for Forecast Values of Water Levels
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on 2 November 2013
5.17(b) The Graph for Forecast Values of Water Levels on 4 November 2013
5.17(c) The Graph for Forecast Values of Water Levels on 5 November 2013
5.17(d) The Graph for Forecast Values of water levels on
18 November 2013
5.17(e) The Graph for Forecast Values of Water Levels on 30 November 2013
5.17(f) The Graph for Forecast Values of Water Levels on 1 December 2013
5.17(g) The Graph for Forecast Values of Water Levels on 13 December 2013
5.17(h) The Graph for Forecast Values of Water Levels on 15 December 2013
5.18(a) The Actual and Forecast Water Level in Station
A
5.18(b) The Actual and Forecast Water Levels in Station
B
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109 xvii

PDM
ACF
AR
ARMA
LIST OF ABBREVATIONS
Probability Distributed Model
Autocorrelation Function
Autoregressive
Autoregressive Moving Average xviii

k
2 k b q c b g s t k
1 f c b e c min c max b k g
LIST OF SYMBOLS
Rainfall Factor,
Exponent in actual evaporation function,
Exponent in actual evaporation function,
Maximum store capacity,
Exponent parameter,
Groundwater recharges time constant,
Exponent of recharge function,
Soil tension storage capacity,
Time constants of cascade of first linear reservoir,
Time constants of cascade of second linear reservoir,
Base flow time constant,
Constant flow representing returns or abstraction, xix

LIST OF APPENDICES
APPENDICES
A
TITLE
Output of PDM parameters in Station A
Output of PDM parameters in Station B
B Output of Final Result of Calibration data for
Station A
Output of Final Result of Calibration data for
Station B
C Comparison between Actual and Forecast Water
Level of Station A
Comparison between Actual and Forecast Water
Level of Station B
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