CURRICULUM VITAE
JACEK KUGLER
Elisabeth Helm Rosecrans Professor of World Politics
____________________________________________________________________________________
Office Address: School of Politics and Economics
Department of Politics and Policy
Claremont Graduate University
170 E. Tenth Street
Claremont, CA 91711-6163
Tel: (909) 621-8690
e-mail: jacek.kugler@cgu.edu
Background:
Education:
Place of Birth - Mstyczow, Poland
Citizenship - U.S.A.
University of Michigan, Ph.D.
University of California, Los Angeles, M.A.
University of California, Los Angeles, B.A.
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
1992-present
Elisabeth Helm Rosecrans Professor of World Politics, Claremont Graduate University
2008-present
Co-founder and Director, TransResearch Consortium
2003- present
Founder and Director, Sentia Group Inc.
2008-2010
Consultant, UNAIDS
2005-2010
Consultant, World Bank
2002-2008
Editor of International Interactions
2006
Visiting Professo, Universidad Autonoma de Baja California (UABC)
2006
Visiting Professor, California Institute of Technology
2004-2005
President, International Studies Association
1989-2002
Co-founder and member of Board of Directors, Decision Insights Inc.
1999-2000
Visiting Professor, National Defense University, Washington D.C.
1997-1999
Chair, Department of Politics and Policy, Claremont Graduate University
1997-1998
Director, School of Politics and Economics, Claremont Graduate University
1989-1992
Professor, Vanderbilt University
1983-1989
Associate Professor, Vanderbilt University
1982-1995
Co-founder, Chairman and Member of Board of Directors, Policon Inc.
1982-1983
Visiting Associate Professor, The Claremont Graduate School
1982-1983
Visiting Associate Professor, UCLA
1980-1982
Visiting Scholar, Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
1976-1983
Co-director of Net National Estimates Program, University of Michigan
1980-1983
Research Associate Professor, Boston University
1974-1979
Assistant Professor, Boston University
1974-1976
Research Associate, CPS, ISR, University of Michigan
1975-1976
Consultant to World Bank
1971-1974
Study Director, CPS, University of Michigan
1970-1971
Assistant, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan
1965-1968
Research Assistant, Security Studies Center, UCLA
Jacek Kugler
MANUSCRIPTS
Performance of Nations (2012) with Ronald Tammen, Rowman Littlefield
Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century (2000) co-authored, CQ press. Translated into Chinese 2003.
Political Capacity & Economic Behavior (1997), ed. with Marina Arbetman, Westview Press.
Parity and War (1996), ed. with Douglas Lemke, Michigan University Press.
The Long Term Stability of Deterrence (1987), ed. with Frank Zagare, Lynn Rienner Publishers.
Birth, Death and Taxes: Political and Demographic Transition (1984), with A.F.K. Organski, T. Johnson, and Y.
Cohen, The University of Chicago Press.
The War Ledger (1980), with A. F. K. Organski, The University of Chicago Press.
EDITED JOURNALS
Special Volume of International Interactions: Power Transtion Theory, Compiler 2012
International Interactions, 2002-2008, Editor
International Interactions, Special Issue (34,4), Co-editor with Kristin Johnson
World Politics: Quo Vadis? (2006), Editor, Special Issue, International Studies Review (8, 4)
Transitions to Democracy (1999), Editor, Special Issue, Journal of Conflict Resolution (43, 2)
The Expected Utility Approach to Policy Decision Making (1997), Co-editor with Yi Feng, Special Issue,
International Interactions (23,3-4)
ARTICLES AND BOOK CHAPTERS
“Tectonic Move in 21st Century International Relations: Ukrainian Territorial Crisis, Realignments of Major
Powers, and Implications for the World” (fortcomming, 2015) with Yi Feng, The Journal of Territorial and
Maritime Studies, 2:1, 55-77.
“Pathways to Stability for Transition Governments in the Middle East and NorthAfrica” (forthcoming) wiith
Amir Bagherpour, Mark Abdollahian and Ashraf Singer, Asian Politics and Policy
“Interdisciplinary Exploration on Economic Growth “ (forthcoming) with Kyungkook Kang in Patrick James
et.al. ed. Interdisciplinary Approaches to International Studies
“Neuropolitics and International Studies:A New Understanding of Trust” (forthcoming) with Paul Zak in
Patrick James et.al. ed. Interdisciplinary Approaches to International Studies
“Consequences of Reversing the European Union Integration” (2013) with Birol Yesliada and Ali Fisunoglu,
Foreign Policy Analysis 1-23
“Turkey and the West, Bargaining for Realignment” (2013) with Imer Ozer and Hilton Root, Journal of
Contemporary European Studies, 21-2 218-251
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Jacek Kugler
“Demographic and Economic Consequences of Conflict.” (2013) Tadeusz Kugler, Kyungkook Kang, Marina
Arbetman and John Thomas. International Studies Quarterly.
“Nuclear Weapons: Stability of Terror.” (2012) with Kyungkook Kang. in Debating a Post-American World:
What Lies Ahead? edited by Sean Clark and Sabrina Hoque, 169-175 Routledge.
“A World beyond Waltz: Neither Iran nor Israel Should Have the Bomb” Frontline 25 September 2012
“Global Transtions” (2012) with Ronald L. Tammen and John Thomas in Debating a Post-American World: What
Lies Ahead? edited by Sean Clark and Sabrina Hoque, 30-38 Routledge.
“The Coming Global Power Transition”, (2012) with Ronald Tammen in Global Business & Economics
Anthology, II, (1), 1-13, Worchester, MA.
“Power Transtion Theory” (2012) International Interactions Special Volume, on line, 1,1
“Neuroeconomics and International Studies: A New Understanding of Trust” (2011) with Paul J. Zak,
International Studies Perspectives 12, 136–152.
“Politics and Power” (2010) in Alexander Kott and Gary Citrenbaum editors, Estimating Impact: A Handbook of
Computational Methods and Models for Anticipating Economic, social, Political and Sedurity Effects in
International Interventions, Springer pp.43-90.
“Political Demography; Status of the Field”, (2010) International Studies Compendium with Tadeusz Kugler,
International Studies Compendium. ISA on line. Wily-Blackwell Publishing.
“Asian Challenge and NAFTA: Global Options in the 21st Century” (2009) in David Ledezma Torres and Ana
Barbara Mungaray eds. Mexico and the World: Comparative Perspectives for the Study of Development .
Bofeta y Associates, baja California, Mexico pp. 21-34.
“Pathways for Peace: A Multi-Model Assessment of the Sudanese Comprehensive Peace Agreement” 2009.
with Mark Abdollahian, Michael Baranick, and Sudhir Davalia, National Defense University,
“The Path to Prosperity: The Dynamics of Freedom and Economic Prosperity” (2008),
Interactions with Yi Feng, Siddhart Swaminathan, and Paul Zak,
( 34,4) pp 423-441
International
“War Initiation in a Changing World” (2008), International Interactions with Carole Alsharabati, (34,4) pp
358-381
“Preface” (2008), International Interactions with Kristin Johnson, (34,4) pp 311 -313
“Power Transition and China–US Conflicts,” (2006), with Ronald L. Tammen, The Chinese Journal of
International Politics (1,1), pp 35-55. Reproduced with augmentation from the Science of International
Politics, The Institute of International Studies, Tsinghua University
“China Becomes the Strongest - 2050?: International Security Environment and US, China, Taiwan
Trilateral Relations,” (2006), in China Becomes the Strongest? Preventing the Perfect Storm in the
Taiwan Strait a Power Transition Perspective, ed. Antonio C. Hsiang, Asian Cultural Studies, Taipei,
Taiwan.
“Senturion: Predictive Political Simulation Model” (2006), with Mark Abdollahian, Michael Baranick and Brian
Efird in Defense and Technology Paper, 32, Center for Technology and National Security Policy, National
Defense University..
"Reconceptualizing Security Research with Individual Level Data" (2006) in Hans Günter Brauch, John Grin,
Czeslaw Mesjasz, Navnita Chadha Behera, Béchir Chourou, Ursula Oswald Spring, P.H. Liotta, Patricia
Kameri-Mbote (Eds.) Vol. 1: Globalisation and Environmental Challenges - Reconceptualising Security
in the 21st Century (Berlin)
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Jacek Kugler
“World Politics: Quo Vadis? (2006), International Studies Review, (8, 4), pp. 555-561.
“The Asian Assent: Opportunity for Peace or Precondition for War?” (2006), International Studies
Perspective, (7,1).
“The Chinese Dilemma: Satisfied or Dissatisfied” (2005), Science in International Politics
(1:3), Tsinghua University, China.
and Research,
“Regional Challenge: China’s Rise to Power” (2004), with Ronald L. Tammen, in Jim Rolfe ed. Asia Pacific: A
Region in Transition, Asia Pacific Center Press
“Integrating Theory and Policy: Global Implications of the War in Iraq” (2004),
with Ronald L. Tammen and Brian Efird, International Studies Review, (6,4)
“The Political Future of Afghanistan and its Implications for U.S. Policy,” (2003), with Birol Yesilada and
Brian Efird, Conflict Management and Peace Science, (20,1)
“From War to Integration: Generalization of Power Transition Dynamics,” (2003) with Brian Efird and
Gaspare Genna, International Interactions, (29,4)
“Population Growth, Urbanization and the Role of Government in China: A Political Economy Model of
Demographic Change,” (2002), with Yi Feng and Paul Zak, Urban Studies, (39,12)
“Immigration, Fertility and Growth,” (2002), with Yi Feng and Paul J. Zak, Journal of Economic Dynamics and
Control (26, 547-576)
“Power Transitions and Alliances in the 21st Century,” (2001), with Ronald Tammen and Siddhart
Swaminathan, Asian Perspective (25,3)
“Comparing Rational Choice and Prospect Theory Analyses: The US Decision to Launch Operation ‘Desert
Storm’, January 1991,” (2001), with Rose McDermott, Journal of Strategic Studies, (24,3)
“The Politics of Fertility and Economic Development,” (2000), with Yi Feng and Paul Zak, International
Studies Quarterly (44,2)
"Institutional Reform and Democratic Consolidation in Korea," (2000), with Hilton Root, Mark Abdollahian
in Institutional Reform and Democratic Consolidation in Korea, edited by Larry Diamond and Doh-Chull
Shin, Hoover Institution Press.
“Negotiating Peace in Kosovo” (2000) with Brian Efird, Peter Galbraith and Mark Abdollahian, International
Interactions (26,2)
“Governance, Fertility Transitions and Economic Development: Cross-Country Evidence,
East Asia and the Case of China,” (2000), with Yi Feng and Paul Zak in The East Asia Development
Models, Economic Growth, Institutional Failure and the Aftermath of Crisis, edited by Frank-Jurgen
Richter, The Macmillan Press.
“The Power Transition Research Program: Assessing Theoretical and Empirical Advances,” (2000), with
Douglas Lemke, in The Handbook of War Studies II, edited by Manus Midlarsky, University of Michigan
Press.
“Extensions of Power Transition: Applications to Political Economy,” (1999), in Peace Economics, Peace
Science and Public Policy, (5,3)
“The New Korea: Crisis Brings Opportunity,” (1999), with Hilton Root, Mark Andrew Abdollahian, and Greg
Beier, Milken Institute Policy Brief, February.
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Jacek Kugler
“Alliance Formation and Seat Adjustment Among Indian Parties,” (1999), with Siddharth Swaninathan in
Comparative Political Parties and Party Elites: Essays in Honor of Samuel J. Eldersveld, edited by Birol
A. Yesilada, University of Michigan Press.
“The Likelihood of Major Conflict in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula,” (1998), with Young-Bae Hwang,
World Affairs, (161,2)
“Power Parity, Democracy and the Severity of Internal Violence,” (1998), with Michelle Benson, Journal of
Conflict Resolution, (42,2)
“The Policy Implications of Power Parity,” (1998), Conflict Management and Peace Science, (16,2)
"The Likelihood of Major War in East Asia and the Transition on the Korean Peninsula," (1998),
Young-Bae Hwang, Asian Perspective, (21, 3)
with
“’NAFTA’ From Congressional Passage to Implementation Woes,” (1997), with Doris Andrea Fuchs and Harry
Pachon, International Interactions, (23, 3-4)
“Unrevealing The Ties That Divide: Russian Political Succession,” (1997), with M. Andrew Abdollahian,
International Interactions, (23, 3-4)
“Relative Political Capacity: Political Capacity and Political Reach,” (1997), with Marina Arbetman in
Political Capacity & Economic Behavior, edited with Arbetman, Westview Press.
“Demographic Change and Political Capacity,” (1997), with Marina Arbetman and A.F.K. Organski in Political
Capacity & Economic Behavior, edited with Arbetman, Westview Press.
“Violence and Political Capacity,” (1997), with Michelle Benson, Dimitry Panasevich and Andy Hira in Political
Capacity & Economic Behavior, edited. with Arbetman, Westview Press.
“The Evolution of the Power Transition Perspective,” (1996), with Douglas Lemke in Parity and War, edited
with Douglas Lemke, University of Michigan Press.
“Assessing Stable Deterrence,” (1996), in Parity and War, edited with Douglas Lemke, University of Michigan
Press.
“Power Transitions and Military Buildups: Resolving the Relationship Between Arms Buildups and War,”
(1996), with Suzanne Werner in Parity and War, edited with Douglas Lemke, University of Michigan
Press.
“Beyond Deterrence: Structural Conditions for a Lasting Peace,” (1996), in Parity and War, edited with
Douglas Lemke, University of Michigan Press.
“The Mosaic of International Power: Reflections on General Trends,” (1995), with A.F.K. Organski and Mark
Abdollahian in Towards and International Economic and Social History: Essays in Honor of Paul
Bairoch edited by Bouda Etemad, Jean Batou and Thomas David, Editions Passe Present, Geneva.
“The Politics of Inflation: An Empirical Assessment of Emerging Economies,” (1995), with Marina Arbetman
in Establishing Monetary Stability in Emerging Market Economies, edited by TomWillett et.
al.,Westview Press.
“Stable or Tenuous Deterrence in the Two Koreas,” The Sejong Review, (1995) Fall.
“Evaluation of Advancing the Scientific Study of War: A Personal Perspective,” (1994), International
Interactions, (19, 1-2) reprinted in Stuart Bremer and Thomas R. Cusack, The Process of War: Advancing
the Scientific Study of War, Gordon and Breach.
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Jacek Kugler
"From Desert Shield to Desert Storm: Success, Strife, or Quagmire?" (1994), with Lewis Snider and William
Longwell in Conflict Management and Peace Science, (13,3)
“The Politics Surrounding the Creation of the EC Bank: The Last Stumbling Block to Integration,” (1994),
with John Williams in European Community Decision Making edited by Bueno de Mesquita and Frans
Stokman
"Political Conflict, War and Peace," (1993), in Political Science: The State Of The Discipline II, edited by Ada
Finifter, American Political Science Association.
"War," in The Oxford Companion to Politics of the World (1993).
"The Study of War and Peace: Quo Vadis," (1991), in Political Science: The Status of the Discipline, edited by
William Crotty, Northwestern University Press.
"The War Phenomenon: A Working Distinction," (1990), International Interactions (16,3).
"The Long Term Stability of Deterrence," (1989), with Frank Zagare, International Interactions (15, ¾).
Reprinted in Modeling International Conflict (1990) edited by Frank Zagare, Gordon and Breach.
“The End of Hegemony?" (1989), with A.F.K. Organski, International Interactions, (15,2), Spring.
“Choosing Among Measures of Power: A Review of the Empirical Record," (1989), with Marina Arbetman in.
Power in World Politics, edited by Michael Don Ward and Richard J. Stoll, Lynne Rienner Publishers.
"The Power Transition: A Retrospective and Prospective Evaluation," (1989), with A.F.K. Organski in
Handbook of War Studies, edited by Manus Midlarsky, Allen and Unwin.
“The Phoenix Factor Revisited: A Collective Good Evaluation of Differential Recovery Rates," (1989), with
Marina Arbetman, Journal of Conflict Resolution, (33,1).
"The Politics of Foreign Debt in Latin America," (1987) International Interactions, (13, 2)
“Assessing Stable Deterrence” (1987) in Exploring the Stability of Deterrence ed. with Frank Zagare, Lynn
Rienner Publishers.
“Introduction to Exploring the Stability of Deterrence” (1987) with Frank Zagare in Exploring the Stability of
Deterrence ed. with Frank Zagare, Lynn Rienner Publishers.
“Risk, Deterrence and War” (1987) with Frank Zagare in Exploring the Stability of Deterrence, edited with
Frank Zagare, Lynn Rienner Publishers.
"Comparing the Strength of Nations," (l986) with William Domke, Comparative Political Studies, (19,1)
"Terror Without Deterrence? Reassessing the Role of Nuclear Weapons," (1984), Journal of Conflict
Resolution (28,3)
"The Stability of Deterrence," (1984) Abstract, Mathematical Social Sciences, (5)
"Political Determinants of Population Dynamics," (1983), with A. Organski, T. Johnson, and Y. Cohen,
Comparative Political Studies (16,1)
"Utilization of Residuals: An Option to Indirectly Measure Concepts," (1983), Political Methodology (9, 1)
"Deterrence and the Arms Race: The Impotence of Power,"(1980), with A.F.K. Organski and D. Fox,
International Security (3, 2)
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Jacek Kugler
"David and Goliaths: Predicting the Outcome of International Wars," (1978), with A.F.K. Organski,
Comparative Political Studies, (11, 2)
"The Costs of Major Wars: The Phoenix Factor," (1977), with A.F.K. Organski, American Political Science
Review, (71,4)
MAIN PROFESSIONAL PRESENTATIONS
“The Impact of Ukraine Crisis on the Future of Eurasia” Graduate Student Conference on International Security
in the 21st Century, Portland State University , Portland April, 2015
“Eurasia and Global Stability” with Yelena Tuzova International Atlantic Economic Conference, Milan, Italy
March 2015
“Implication of Demographic, Economic and Political shifts in Eurasia” Interational Studies Association
Meeting, New Orleans.
Presidential Roundtable on Status, Hierarchy and International Relations” Interational Studies Association
Meeting, New Orleans
“EuroAsia and Global Restructuring” with Yelena Tuzova, ISA West Conference, Pasadena.September, 2014
“Impact of Global Restructuring on Eurasia”, Panel of ISA Presidents, Collegium Civitas/ISA Conference,
Warsaw, Poland June 2014
“Political Performance and Foreign Aid in Afghanistan” presented at The Political Marketplace: Analyzing
Political Entrepreneurs and Political Bargaining
The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University Boston June 2014
“Visually Exploring the Consequences of War and the Path to Recovery”, with Tadeusz Kugler, Ali Fisunoglu,
Kyungkook Kang, International Studies Association Meeting, Toronto April 2013
Roundtable: Have the Fears of Population Decline been Realized? Celebration of the
Titelbaum, International Studies Association Meeting, San Francisco April 2013
Work of Michael
Presidential Theme Roundtable: the Diffusion of International Power: Trends and Implications, International
Studies Association Meeting, San Francisco April 2013
Presidential Theme Roundtable – Western International Studies Association Meeting, Pasadena, California,
October 2013
“Agent Based Stakeholder Model of the Cyprus Peace Talks:nd of the Road?” with Birol Yesilada,
International Studies Association Meeting, San Francisco April 2013
“A Formal Assessment of the Deterrence Process” with KyungKook Kang and Steve Childs
International Studies Association Meeting, San Francisco April 2013
“Consequences of War and Recovery of Fragile States” with Kyungkook Kang, Tadeusz Kugler, Ali Fisunoglu,
Peace and Conflict Conference CRS, Essex. Colschester, UK. September 2013
“Why EU Cannot Afford a failed EURO” with Birol Yeşilada and Ali Fisunoğlu
Redefining European Economic Governance Workshop, College of Europe
European Political and Administrative Studies, Brugge February 2012
“A Formal Assessment of the Deterrence Process” with Steven Childs and Kyungkook Kang,
Peace Science Society Conference, Savanna, Georgia November 2011.
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Jacek Kugler
“Economic Consequences of Conflict: Recovery or Bust” with Tadeusz Kugler, International Political Economiy
Society Meeting, Harvard, Cambridge, November 2010
“Deterring Nuclear Challenges: a Formal Analysis of Extreme War Mechanisms” with Kyungkook Kang,
International Studies Association Meeting, New Orleans 2010
“Economic and Demographic Consequences of Conflict” with Tadeusz Kugler, Kyungkook Kang, Marina
Arbetman-Rabinowitz, International Studies Association Meeting, New Orleans February 2010
“Conditional Deterrence: Why Do Actors Engage in Extreme Wars?” with Kyungkook Kang, American
Political Science Association Meetings, Washington D.C., September 2010
“Global Economic Recovery: How this Process Differs Among Great Powers” , CGU Commencment Forum,
May 14, 2010
Workshop. Effects of Corrupton and Information Operations in Irregular Warfare, Center for National
Security Policy, National Defense University May 11-13 2010
“Deterrence Stability in an Unstable World”, University of Sothern California, February. 2010
“Political Capacity: Extraction and Reach” TransResearch Meeting, Claremont January, 2010
“Link of Domestic Instability to Political Capacity” Understanding the Political Marketplace: Workshop, Tufts
University, November, 2009.
“Economic and Demographic Consequences of Conflict” with Tadeusz Kugler, Kyungkook Kang, and Marina
Arbetman-Rabinowitz. Peace Science Society Annual Meeting. 2009, Chapel Hill, NC. November. 2009
“Exploring the Mechanism of War Initiation Stable Deterrence in an Unstable Nuclear World”, Peace Science
Society Annual Meeting. 2009, Chapel Hill, NC. November. 2009.
“Political Demography: Structural Policy Implications of Changing Demographic Patterns”, American Political
science Meeting, Toronto Canada, September. 2009.
“The Role of Mexico in the Global Hierarchy”, UNAM, Tijuana, Mexico. September. 2009
“Political Capacity”,. TransResearch Meeting, Carmel, CA. August. 2009
“Population and Growth”, with Tadeusz Kugler, ISA - ABRI Joint International Meeting,
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil,. July. 2009.
“Political Demography, Development and Stability”, International Studies Association
York, February. 2009
Meeting, New
“National Strategy for the 21st Century: The Impact of China on World Politics” with
International Studies Association Meeting, New York, February. 2009
Ronald Tammen,
“Measuring Political Capacity” with Marina Arbetman and Kristin Johnson, Presented at the
TransResearch Institute, Carmel, CA, August 2008.
Conference on
“USA, EU, Middle East Interactions from a Power Transition Perspective”, Presented at the Conference on
Contemporary Issues in the Middle East, Sinai University – El Arish, July
27-29 2008.
“Analyzing Emerging States”, Presented at the Conference on Analyzing the Impact of Emerging States on
National Security, MORS, Argonne, IL, April 14-18, 2008.
“Analyzing Nation Building”, Presented at the Conference on Analyzing the Impact of Emerging States on
National Security, MORS, Argonne, IL, April 14-18, 2008.
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Jacek Kugler
“Conditional Deterrence: Why Do Actors Engage in Extreme Wars”, with Kuingkook Kang, Peace Science
Society Meeting, South Carolina, February 2007
“Global Transitions: China, India, USA and the EU”, 63rd Atlantic Economic Conference,
March 2007
Madrid, Spain,
“Global Implications of Asia’s Rise”, International Studies Association, Chicago, IL, February
2007
“Implications of Asia’s Ascent to Global Status”, Center for Comparative International
Switzerland, December 2006.
Studies, Zurich,
“Implications of Asia’s Ascent to Global Status”, GIGA Conference, Hamburg, December
2006.
“Opening the Black Box of War”, Program Evaluation, UC Davis, Davis, CA, November 2006
“Assessing Mexico’s Global Options in the 21st Century”, Universidad Autonoma de Baja
Tijuana Mexico, September 2006
California,
“Global Implications of Asia’s Ascent to Global Status, Peace Science Society, Ohio State
September 2006
University,
“Common Principles for Domestic and International Politics: Implications of the Ascent of
International Studies Association, San Diego, CA, March 2006.
Asia”,
“US, China and India: Emerging Competition or Confrontation” with Ronald Tammen and
Swaminathan, Peace Science Society, Iowa City, Iowa, November 4-6, 2005
Siddharth
“Effects of Regional Integration on the Global Structure” with Ronald Tammen, Claremont Kiep Conference on
the Political Economy of Regional Integration, Claremont, CA, November
18-19, 2005
“The Developed and Developing World: Emerging Competition or Confrontation”, IBEMC Conference, Rio
de Janeiro, Brazil November 9, 2005
“Equality and Growth: War and Peace”, Power Transition VI Carmel Conference, Carmel,
2005
CA, July 9-10,
“Why Study Politics: Global and Regional Implications of the War on Terror” Presidential address presented at
the South Regional ISA Meetings, Boston, MA, 2004
“Power Transitions, Transatlantic Relations and the War on Terror” presented at the Kennedy School, Harvard
University, Cambridge, MA, 2004
Why Study Politics: Global and Regional Implications of the War on Terror” Presidential Address presented at
the Midwest Regional ISA Meetings, Saint Lous, MO, 2004
“The Impact of Demographic Change on Development”, Panel Discussion presented at the South Regional ISA
Meetings, S.C., 2004
“Why Study Politics: Global and Regional Implications of the War on Terror” Presidential Address presented
at the South Regional ISA Meetings, S.C., 2004
“Why Study Politics: Global and Regional Implications of the War on Terror” Presented at the South Regional
ISA Meetings, S.C., 2004
“Assessment of the War on Terror: the Power Dynamics of Nuclear Weapons”, with Ronald Tammen,
presented at the VI Power Transition Conference, Carmel, CA, 2004
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Jacek Kugler
“World Politics Revisited”, ISA Presidential Address at the RISA Meetings, Moscow, Russia, May 2004
“Power Transitions, Transatlantic Relations and Implications for US-EU Policies for the 21st Century”, ISA
Presidential Address, The Third METU Conference on International Relations, Ankara, Turkey, May 2004.
“Bounded Rationality Analysis of the Cyrus Bargaining Process” with Birol Yesilada, The Third METU
Conference on International Relations, Ankara, Turkey, May 2004.
“Global and Regional Implications of the War on Terror”, with Ron Tammen and Brian
Political Science Associations Meetings, Chicago, IL, September 2004
Efird, American
“World Politics: Quo Vadis”, Presidential Address at the International Studies Association, Montreal, Canada,
February 2004.
“The War Presidency: Options Taken and Lost”, with Ron Tammen and Brian Efird. International Studies
Association Meetings, Montreal, Canada, February 2004
“Taiwan’s Security in the Wake of the War on Terror”, Keynote presentation at the 2003 Tamkang University International
Forum, Taiwan, December 2003.
“Assessing the Systemic and Regional Effects of the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars”
with Ron Tammen, Peace Science Meetings, Ann Arbor, Mich., November 2003.
“Iraq II: Insights from Macro and Micro Analysis”, with Ron Tammen,
International Studies Association, Budapest, Hungary, June 2003
“Exploring the Causes of the an Asian Challenge in the Context of the Iraq War”, with Ron Tammen,
American Political Science Association Meeting, Philadelphia, PA, 2003
“Roundtable Forecasting Terrorism”, with Todd Sandler and Birol Yesilada, International Studies Association,
Portland, Ore., March 2003
“Dying to Reach the Negotiating Table”, with Lewis Snider and Brian Efird, International
Portland, Ore, March 2003
Studies Association,
“The Middle East in Crisis: Concerns and Options” Peace Science Society, Tucson, Ariz., November 2002.
“Regional Challenge: China’s Rise to Power”, with Ronald Tammen, Honolulu, Hawaii,
October 2002
“Income Distribution, Population and Economic Growth”, International Studies Association, New Orleans,
March 2002.
“Equality, Growth in Populations and Freedom”, Peace Science Society, Atlanta, Ga., October 26-28, 2001
“Demographic Change, Economic Equality, Political Freedom and Economic Development”, Association for
Politics and the Life Sciences, Charleston, S.C., October 18-21, 2001
“The Asian Challenge”, International Studies Association/Hong Kong , Hong Kong,
July 26-28, 2001
Taiwan, China and the United States”, War College, Taiwan, July 23, 2001.
“From Conflict to Integration”, American Political Science Association, San Francisco, CA, September 2001
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Jacek Kugler
“From War to Integration” with Brian Efrid, Peace Science Society, Yale University, New Haven, Ct., October
2000
“Power Transitions in the 21st Century,” University of California at San Diego, Fall 2000
“The Asian Challenge to the United States”, Paul Cone Distinguished Lecture, School of Business Management,
La Sierra University, Fall 2000
“Asian Transitions: Peace or War”, Santa Monica City College, October 2000
“Power Transitions in the 21st Century” University of Iowa, September 2000
“Power Transitions and the Asian Challenge”, Milken Institute, Santa Monica, September, 2000
“The Asian Challenge” presented at the American Political Science Association, Washington D.C., September
2000
“The Path to Prosperity”, with Yi Feng and Paul Zak presented at the American Political Science Association
Meetings, Washington D.C., September 2000
“Predicting Politics with Expected Utility Under Uncertainty”, with Mark Abdollahian, presented at the
Research Conference on Cognition, Emotion, and Rational Choice, UCLA Faculty Center, Friday April 7-8,
2000
“Power Transitions in Asia” with Ronald L. Tammen and Siddharth Swaminathan, presented at the International
Studies Association, Los Angeles, CA, March 15-18, 2000
“Extensions of Power Transitions: Applications to Political Economy” presented at the Research Conference on
International Political Economy, UCLA Lake Arrowhead Conference Center, February 11-13, 2000.
“Future Implications of Power Transitions,” National Defense University, November 1999.
“Economic Applications of power Transitions: Growth, Trade and Democracy,” IUS Conference, Baltimore,
Md., October 1999.
“Political Capacity, Fertility and Development,” with Yi Feng and Paul Zak,presented at the Peace Science
Society Meetings, October 8-10, Ann Arbor, MI, 1999.
“Formal Dynamics of Power Transition,” with Brian Efird presented at the American Political Science
Association Meetings, Atlanta, September 1999
“Negotiating Peace in Kosovo,” with Brian Eire, Peter Galbraith and Mark Abdollahian, presented at the
Conference on Collective Decision and Policy Making, University of Groningen, 21-22 June 1999.
“Timing and Conditionally for EU Expansion to Eastern Europe,” with Vera Totkovicova, presented at the
Conference on Collective Decision and Policy Making, University of Groningen, June 21-22, 1999.
“Extensions of Power Transition: Applications to Political Economy,” Sixth World Peace Science
Timbergen Institute in Amsterdam, Netherlands, May 24-26, 1999.
Congress,
“Political Structures, Demographic Change and Economic Growth,” with Yi Feng and Paul Zak presented at the
Peace Science Society, Rutgers, N.Y., October 16-18, 1998.
“Population, Politics and Economic Growth,” with Paul Zak presented at the American Political Science
Association, Boston, September 1998.
“Proliferation and the Stability of Asymmetric Deterrence,” with Carole Alsharabati, American Political Science
Association, Washington DC, September 1997.
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Jacek Kugler
“Terror with Deterrence,” with Carole Alsharabati presented at the Peace Science Society, November 20-23,
Indianapolis IN, 1997.
“The Dynamics of Demography and its Impact on Economic Growth and Political Decisions,” with Yi Feng
and Paul Zak, presented at the Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Toronto,
Canada 1997.
“Asian Transitions and the Probability of War,” with Young Bae Hwang International Studies Association (ISAJAL) Makuhari, Japan, September 1997.
“The Policy Implications of Power Parity,” presented at the Peace Science Society Meetings, October Houston,
1996.
“Parity of Political Resources and Domestic Conflict,” with Michelle Benson, American Political Science
Association, Chicago, September 1996.
Prospects For Peace After Bilateral Deterrence,” presented at the International Studies Association Annual
Convention, San Diego, California, April 1996.
“The U.S. Decision to Launch Desert Storm, January 1991: A Rational Choice Analysis,” American Political
Science Association Meetings, Chicago, September 1995.
“The Evolution of the International System and Conflict,” presented at the Workshop on Evolutionary
Paradigms in the Social Sciences II, Seattle: University of Washington, May 1995.
“Beyond Nuclear Deterrence: Peace or War,” International Studies Associations West, Seattle, WA, October
1994.
“The Stability of Deterrence Under a Single Dominant Power,” American Political Science Association, New
York, NY, September 1994.
“The Politics of Inflation: An Empirical Assessment of Economies in Transition,” Western Economic
Association, Vancouver, Canada, June 1994.
“The NAFTA Bargain: Forecast of a Political Decision,” UC Irvine, May 27, 1994.
“Stable or Tenuous Deterrence in the Two Koreas,” Conference on Rationality and Inter-Korean Relations,
Hallym University, South Korea, October 1993.
“Beyond Anarchy: A Peace and War Approach to International Politics,” Peace Science Society, August 1993.
"The Effects of Political Capacity on Population Changes," International Studies Association, April 1992.
"Beyond Deterrence: Structural Conditions for a Lasting Peace," presented at the American Political Science
Association, Chicago, September 1991.
"From Desert Shield to Desert Storm," presented at the Peace Society, Ann Arbor, Mich., November 1990.
"Proliferation and Deterrence," Roundtable at the American Political Science Association, September 1991.
"Restating the Demographic Clock: The Effects of Political Capacity on Vital Rates," presented at the
International Political Science Association, 15th World Congress, July 1991.
"Conditional Anarchy: Importance of the Status Quo in World Politics," presented at the Peace Society,
Rutgers, NJ, November 1990.
"Resetting the Demographic Clock: The Effects of Political Capacity on Fertility and Mortality Rates," with
A.F.K. Organski, presented at the American Political Science, San Francisco, CA, September 1990.
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Jacek Kugler
"The Last Stumbling Block to Integration: Banking Reform in Europe," presented at the Conference on
European Integration, Groningen, The Netherlands, May 1990.
"Exploring Banking Reform in EEC," (with John Williams), presented at the Midwest American Political Science
Association, Chicago, April 1990.
"Anticipating Political Instability," Peace Science Conference, Peace Science Society, Ohio State University,
1989.
"The Study of War and Peace: Quo Vadis," Midwest American Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, 1989.
"The Political Aspects of Domestic Instability," with Marina Arbetman, presented at the International Studies
Association, London, England, 1989.
"Black Market, Exchange Rates and Domestic Instability," with Marina Arbetman, American Political Science
Association, Washington D.C., September 1988.
"Anticipating Political Instability with Political Variables," American Political Science Association, Chicago,
IL, 1987.
"The Phoenix Factor Revisited," with Marina Arbetman, International Studies Association, Washington, D.C.,
1987.
"The End of Hegemony: Says Who?" with A.F.K. Organski, International Studies Association, Washington, D.C.,
1986. Nominated as best paper at this meeting.
"The Long Term Stability of Deterrence", American Political Science Association, New Orleans, 1985.
"The Debt Problem in Latin America," International Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., 1985.
"Anticipating Political Instability with Political Capacity," Western International Studies Association, Seattle,
WA, November 1984.
"Deterrence and Expected Utility," Summer Institute for the Study of Conflict Theory and International Security,
UCLA, June 1984.
"Exploring the Stability of Deterrence," International Studies Association, Mexico City, March 1983.
"The Formal Structure of Deterrence," Marschak Colloquium, UCLA, 1983.
"The Politics of Population Change," presented at the Political Behavior Seminar, Harvard University, Boston,
MA, February 1981.
"How Much Terror for Deterrence: Fear Revisited," International Studies Association, Philadelphia, Pa., March
1981.
"The U.S., China, and the USSR: Testing Deterrence Theory," International Studies Association Meeting, Los
Angeles, Ca., March 1980.
"Setting Boundaries for the Political Capabilities of Nations," invited presentation of the history of a major
project with A.F.K. Organski at the 1979 Biennial Meeting of Official Representatives to the
Inter-University Consortium, Ann Arbor, Mich., November, 1979.
"National Capabilities and War," University of Rochester, Rochester, N.Y., November 1979.
"Demographic Growth and Political Change," International Affairs Center, University of Denver, Colo,
September 1979.
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Jacek Kugler
"Deterrence Models and the Arms Races: The Impotence of Power," Midwest Political Science Association,
Chicago, IL, April 1979.
"Deterrence Models," Western Section, Peace Science Society (International), Stanford University, Stanford, CA,
February 1979.
"New Deterrence Models," Security Studies Center, University of California, Los Angeles, February 1979.
"Power and War: Is Overwhelming Preponderance or Balance of Power the Key to Peace?" Center for
Mediterranean Studies, Rome, Italy, May 1977.
"An Aggregate Measure of Political Development and Its Impact on the Evaluation of Outcomes in Limited
Conflict," seminar at the National Security Council, April l976.
"Problems of Estimating Tax Effort,” University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mich., June 1975
"Imperialism: The Empirical Evidence," International Studies Association, Toronto, Canada, February 1975.
"The Costs of Major Wars," American Political Science Association, San Francisco, CA, September 1974.
"The Political Behavior of Migrants in West Germany," University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 1971.
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Jacek Kugler
OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Conference of the TransResearch Institute, Organizer, Carmel, 2015
Conference on Eurasia- Defining and Crossing Barriers, Co-organizer, 2014
Conference of the TransResearch Institute, Organizer, Carmel, 2014
Conference of the TransResearch Institute, Organizer, Carmel, 2013
Conference of the TransResearch Institute, Organizer, Carmel, 2012
Conference of the TransResearch Institute, Organizer, Carmel, 2012
Conference of the TransResearch Institute, Organizer, Carmel, 2010
Conference of the TransResearch Institute, Director, Carmel, 2009
Conference of the TransResearch Institute, Director, Carmel, 2008
Conference of the TransPacific Institute, Director, Carmel, 2007
Conference of theTransPacific Institute, Director, Carmel, 2006
Conference of the Power Transitions VII, Organizer, Carmel 2005
Conference of the Power Transitions VI, Organizer, Carmel, 2004
Conference of the Power Transitions V, Organizer, Carmel, 2003
Conference of the Power Transitions IV, Organizer, Carmel, 2002
Conference of the Power Transitions III, Organizer, Carmel, 2001
Conference of the Power Transitions II, Organizer, Carmel, 2000
Conference of the Power Transitions I, Organizer, Washington D.C., 1999
Conference of the Population Futures, Speaker, Taiwan, October 1998.
Conference on Democratic Transitions, Organizer, Claremont Graduate School, April 1998
Conference on the Political Economy of Growth, Organizer, Claremont Graduate School 1997
Conference Asia’s Emerging Middle Class. Co-Organizer, -Pomona College 1995
Conference on Political Capacity and Economic Behavior, Organizer, Claremont Graduate School, March 1994
Conference on Parity and War: A Critical Evaluation of the War Ledger, Organizer, CGU, March 1993
A Program of Research on National Estimates II (1982), Technical Report to DARPA.
A Program of Research on National Estimates (1979), Technical Report to DARPA.
Estimating Outcomes and Consequences of Interstate War (1977), DARPATechnical Report
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Jacek Kugler
RESEARCH GRANTS AND FELLOWSHIPS
Transresearch Institute Grants, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015
National Science Foundation Grant, 1998-2002
Lincoln Grant, 1992-1995
US Institute of Peace, 1990-1991
Earhart Foundation Travel Grant, 1990
Kenan-Venture Fund Award, 1986-1987; 1989-1990
University Research Council Award, 1985
DARPA, 1976-1981
Earhart Foundation, 1975-1976
ACDA, 1968
Rackham Grant, The University of Michigan, 1971
United Nations Fellowship, 1968
PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Political Demography and Geography Section, Co-Founder. Chair 2010-2012
Editor, International Interactions, 2002-2008
President, International Studies Association, 2004-2005
Chair, 2002 Helen Dwight Reid Award, American Political Science Association
ISA Publications Committee Member 2001- 2003
Advisory Board of the Center on Governance, UCLA
Treasurer, Scientific Study of International Process Section, ISA, 1998-1999
Director, School of Politics and Economics, 1997-1998
Chair, Department of Politics and Policy, Claremont Graduate University, 1997-1999
President, Peace Science Society International, 1995-1996
Councilor, Peace Science Society International 1992 - 1996
Member of Editorial Board, International Interactions, 1987-1991
President 1987-1990, Conflict Process Section, American Political Science Association.
Organizer, 1990, International Politics Section, Midwest American Political Science Association.
Organizer 1988-1989, Official Section on Conflict and Process, American Political Science Association.
Update 2015
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