Matakuliah
Tahun
Versi
: J0274/Akuntansi Manajemen
: 2005
: 01/00
Pertemuan 20
Informasi Relevan Dalam Manajemen
Resiko
1
Learning Outcomes
Pada akhir pertemuan ini, diharapkan mahasiswa
akan mampu :
• Memahami pentingnya para pengambil
keputusan untuk berani menghadapi
ketidak pastian
2
Outline Materi
•
•
•
•
•
Perubahan lingkungan bisnis dan ekonomi
Pengambilan keputusan dan balas jasa
Pengertian ketidakpastian
Alternatif keputusan dalam ketidakpastian
Menjadi creative thinker
3
The Changing
Business Environment
4
Decision Making
Identifying alternative courses of action.
Selecting an appropriate alternative.
5
Rewards and Sacrifices
In general, the aim of all decisions
is to obtain some type of reward,
either economic or personal.
Reward requires sacrifice.
6
Opportunity Cost
It is the reward we give up because
we choose a particular alternative
instead of another.
Examining the relationship between
rewards and sacrifices is known as
cost/benefit analysis.
7
Types of Rewards
Extrinsic
Intrinsic
8
Coping with Uncertainty
and Risk
Uncertainty in any given decision
situation increases the chances
of making the wrong choice.
The higher the degree of
uncertainty, the greater the risk.
9
Routine and Non-routine
Decisions
Routine
decisions
Situation
recurs
Non-routine
decisions
Unfamiliar
circumstances
10
Uncertainty
One common technique for addressing the
impact of uncertainty is
sensitivity analysis - a way to determine
what would happen in a decision analysis
if a key prediction or assumption proved to
be wrong.
11
Decision Making
Under Uncertainty
• Maximax
• Maximin
• Equally likely (Laplace)
• Criterion of Realism
• Minimax
12
Risk and Decision Making
Is the decision maker
a Risk Seeker or
Risk Adverse?
13
21st Century Accountants
Communication
Skills
Attributes of
21st Century
accountants
Intellectual
Skills
Interpersonal
Skills
14
Creative Thinking
• Creative thinking is the process of actively
generating new ideas to discover solutions to
a problem.
Inquisitive Mind
(questioning
attitude)
Creative
Thinkers
Flexibility
Fluency
(broad array of
ideas for solving a
problem)
(number of ideas
generated for a
solution)
15
Brainstorming..
Creative
Strategies
generating
plentyThinking
of
“harebrained” as well as
reasonably possible ideas
Piggybacking…
generating new ideas
from other ideas
Drawing analogies…
connecting facts, ideas, or
experiences that are normally
considered separate
16
Questions for Creative
Thinkers to Ask
• What is it about this idea that stimulates my
curiosity?
• Can I come up with more ideas?
• Can I come up with a great variety of ideas?
• Do I develop ideas independently and not
eliminate them because of social influences?
• Do I consider several alternatives before
acting?
17
Critical Thinking
• Critical thinking is the process that evaluates
the ideas generated by creative thinking.
Independent
(in process of
evaluating ideas)
Tolerate
Ambiguity/Willingly
Defer Judgment
(to collect information
and evaluate solutions)
Critical
Thinkers
Have Grit!
Objectivity
(being unbiased in the
evaluation process;
valuing truth)
18
Questions for Critical
Thinkers to Ask
• If an issue is controversial, do I accept my first
reaction or do I debate the issue in my head
first?
• Do I tend to reject new evidence that
contradicts my current opinion on the subject,
or do I evaluate the new evidence and then
decide whether to accept it or reject it?
19
Questions for Critical
Thinkers to Ask
• When I am trying to solve a problem, do I
usually accept the first solution that “works” or
do I generate multiple solutions and then
choose the best one?
• When others disagree with me, do I usually
listen to them with an open mind and critically
evaluate their ideas, or do I try or defend my
own ideas?
20
Critical Thinking and Logic
• Critical thinkers use a variety of skills in the
problem-solving process. Among these skills
is the ability to use logic.
Inductive logic
Reasoning that
moves from a
specific
conclusion to a
general
statement.
LOGIC
Reasoning that
moves from a
general statement to
a specific
conclusion.
Deductive logic
21