27-Mar-09
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
T09-0187
Aggregate AMT Projections and Recent History, 1970-2019
Administration Baseline (no AMT Fix)4
Current Law
Years
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
AMT Taxpayers AMT Revenue
2
($ billions)3
(millions)
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.25
0.40
0.50
0.23
0.22
0.26
0.23
0.27
0.37
0.43
0.61
0.14
0.11
0.17
0.20
0.34
0.42
0.47
0.53
0.63
0.72
0.90
1.05
1.29
1.61
1.3
2.1
2.5
3.1
4.0
4.0
4.1
3.8
3.8
29.9
16.9
19.6
22.2
25.5
28.6
32.7
36.4
39.8
43.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
1.0
1.3
1.5
1.2
1.3
1.8
1.5
2.5
4.5
3.8
6.7
1.7
1.0
1.6
1.6
2.1
2.5
3.3
3.8
4.1
5.0
6.7
7.7
9.6
13.1
8.8
8.8
11.2
17.1
20.5
24.6
26.7
31.7
31.8
98.2
43.9
51.5
58.7
68.8
79.0
91.1
105.4
120.6
137.5
AMT Taxpayers
(millions)2
1.3
2.1
2.5
3.1
4.0
4.0
4.1
3.8
3.8
29.9
31.0
35.3
38.5
41.8
44.8
47.8
50.4
53.4
56.3
AMT Revenue ($
billions)3
8.8
8.8
11.2
17.1
20.5
24.6
26.7
31.7
31.8
98.2
109.9
109.9
149.6
172.0
194.7
219.1
246.1
274.0
304.3
1
Pre-EGTRRA Law
AMT Taxpayers AMT Revenue ($
(millions)2
billions)3
1.7
3.8
4.2
5.5
7.0
9.0
11.3
13.6
15.6
17.0
17.0
19.7
22.3
25.6
28.7
32.9
36.6
40.0
43.3
11.7
14.0
15.0
16.1
19.2
23.5
29.0
35.8
39.4
41.4
44.1
51.6
58.8
68.9
79.2
91.4
105.7
121.0
138.0
Sources: Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (versions 0304-3, 1006-1, 0309-1); Harvey and Tempalski (1997);
private communication from Jerry Tempalski; and IRS.
(1) Calendar years. The data for the years 1970 to 1998 has been obtained from Harvey and Tempalski (1997) table 2 and private
communications. For the years 1999 to 2000, the number of AMT taxpayers and the AMT revenue under current and extended law have been
calculated by adding TPC microsimulation model (version 0304-3) estimates of the number of taxpayers with lost credits and the revenue due
to these lost credits to the IRS published actual figures for those with direct AMT liability; for 2001-03 the number has been calculated by
adding the TPC microsimulation model (version 1006-1) estimates of the number of taxpayers with lost credits or reduced deductions but no
direct liability and the revenue due to those taxpayers to IRS published actual figures for those with direct AMT liability. For 2004-08 under all
three scenarios, and for pre-EGTRRA law from 2001-03, estimates are from the TPC microsimulation model (version 0308-4).
(2) Includes those with direct AMT liability on Form 6251, those with lost credits, and (for years 2001-2018) those with a reduced deduction.
Tax units that are dependents of other taxpayers are excluded from the analysis.
(3) Includes direct AMT liability on Form 6251, lost credits, and (for years 2001-2019) the revenue due to reduced deductions.
(4) Extends all of the individual income tax provisions included in 2001 EGTRRA and 2003 JGTRRA; maintains the estate tax at its 2009
parameters.