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PROBABILITY (The Basic Concepts) probability: a number that gives a measure of how likely an event is to occur (the mathematics of chance) TERMINOLOGY experiment: a sequence of trials in which a physical occurrence is observed outcome: the result that is observed in the experiment sample space (S): the set of all possible outcomes for an experiment event (E): a subset of the sample space Example Observing at least one head in the toss of two coins. List the sample space and the event. There are 3 basic type of probability: 1. EMPIRICAL (EXPERIMENTAL) PROBABILITY: experiments are used to compile data to calculate the probability (based on direct observation) # of times event occurs P(E) # of times exp eriment repeated 2. THEORETICAL PROBABILITY: based on mathematical analysis (theory and models) n(E) P(E) n(S) where n(E) is the # of outcomes in the event and n(S) is the # of outcomes in the sample space 3. SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY: based on intuition and previous experience HOMEWORK: p.312 #1abf, 2