NeighborhoodInfo
DC
Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area
Foreclosure Monitor — Winter 2011
The Washington, D.C. metropolitan area continued to experience
historically high rates of foreclosure and mortgage delinquency through
2010. The housing market appears to have stabilized in many parts of the
region over the past year.
Pct. Point Change in
Foreclosure Rate (12/2010)
3.0
2.5
2.0
Foreclosure Inventory
•
The regional foreclosure rate remained high, at 2.5%, with 29,900
loans in foreclosure in December 2010. The rate was down only
slightly (0.2 points) from one year ago.
•
County foreclosure rates ranged from 0.7% in Arlington to 4.8% in
Prince George’s.
•
The District of Columbia, Fauquier, and Stafford moved from below to
above the regional average foreclosure rate between September and
December 2010.
1.5
1.0
•
7.6% of mortgages in the metro were 30+ days delinquent in
December 2010, totaling 92,100 loans. The rate was down 1.7 points
from one year before.
0.2
0.0
‐0.2
‐0.5
From
December
2008
From
December
2009
From
September
2010
Pct. Point Change in Total
Delinquency Rate (12/2010)
0.5
0.0
Mortgage Delinquency
0.7
0.5
0.01
-0.5
-0.50
-1.0
-1.5
-1.66
-2.0
•
County total delinquency rates ranged from 2.0% in Arlington to 16.5%
in Prince George’s.
•
3.9% of loans in the region were 90+ days delinquent, but 10 ZIP
codes had rates above 10.0%.
From
December
2008
•
•
37.9% of ZIP codes in the region with more than 500 loans have
comparatively high risk for new REO, with 8.9% of ZIP codes at the
highest risk for new REO in December 2010.
The number of ZIP codes in the high or highest risk for new REO
categories decreased in the past year from 96 ZIP codes in December
2009 to 89 ZIP codes in December 2010.
Sales Market
•
About 5,200 homes were sold in December 2010, down about 5% from
the regional volume last December.
•
The median sales price rose 0.9% in one year to $317,383 in
December 2010. Though down since 2007, the median price was 37%
higher than in December 2000.
•
There was little change in the past year in the ratio of the inventory of
active listings and pending sales to current sales in December 2010,
with 6.2 months of inventory.
From
September
2010
Number of ZIP Codes
By REO Risk Level (12/2010)
120
Real Estate Owned (REO) Properties
From
December
2009
Highest REO Risk
High REO Risk
100
80
18
17
21
60
40
78
74
68
December
2009
September
2010
December
2010
20
0
Percent Change
in Sales Volume (12/2010)
2
Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area Foreclosure Monitor, Winter 2011
Foreclosure Inventory
More Prime than Subprime Loans in Region’s Foreclosure Inventory
Percent of First‐lien Mortgages in the Foreclosure Inventory by Loan Grade
50%
41%
41%
40%
36%
December 2009
35%
December 2010
30%
20%
16%
15%
9%
10%
7%
0%
Alt‐A
Government
Prime
Subprime
Ten Jurisdictions Show Foreclosure Rates Greater than Regional Rate
Arlington County, VA
Alexandria City, VA
Fairfax County, VA
Loudoun County, VA
Montgomery County, MD
Frederick County, MD
Clarke County, VA
Calvert County, MD
Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area
2.5
Fauquier County, VA
District of Columbia
Stafford County, VA
Manassas City, VA
Prince William County, VA
Jefferson County, WV
Charles County, MD
Spotsylvania County, VA
Warren County, VA
Prince George's County, MD
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Percent of First‐lien Mortgages in the Foreclosure Inventory, December 2010
Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area Foreclosure Monitor, Winter 2011
Eastern Region and Far Suburbs Hardest Hit by Foreclosures
3
4
Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area Foreclosure Monitor, Winter 2011
Mortgage Delinquency
Number of First‐lien Mortgages 90 or More Days Delinquent, Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area
Serious Delinquencies Decline in 4th Quarter 2010
70,000
60,000
Subprime
Prime
50,000
Government
Alt‐A
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
10% or Higher Mortgage Delinquency in Five Metropolitan Area Counties
Arlington County, VA
Alexandria City, VA
Fairfax County, VA
Loudoun County, VA
30 to 59 Days Delinquent
Montgomery County, MD
60 to 89 Days Delinquent
90 or More Days Delinquent
District of Columbia
Frederick County, MD
Fauquier County, VA
7.6
Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area
0
Clarke County, VA
Prince William County, VA
Stafford County, VA
Manassas City, VA
Calvert County, MD
Spotsylvania County, VA
Jefferson County, WV
Warren County, VA
Charles County, MD
Prince George's County, MD
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Percent of First‐lien Mortgages that are Delinquent, December 2010
18
Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area Foreclosure Monitor, Winter 2011
5
Seriously delinquent mortgages are those that are 90 days or more past due and not in the foreclosure inventory. The data presented for relative serious delinquency compare the rate in a ZIP code
with the average rate in all ZIP codes. Only areas with more than 500 loans are included in the delinquency analysis. See the Foreclosure Monitor Technical Appendix for details about the indicator.
TOP TEN ZIP CODES BY
SERIOUS DELINQUENCY RATE
December 2010
ZIP Code
20743
20722
20706
20746
20747
20784
20737
20616
20783
20710
Area
Capitol Heights
Brentwood
Lanham
Suitland
District Heights
Landover Hills
Riverdale
Bryans Road
Adelphi
Bladensburg
Percent
13.0
11.8
10.9
10.7
10.6
10.5
10.3
10.2
10.1
10.0
EMERGING ZIP CODES WITH HIGH SERIOUS DELINQUENCY
County
ZIP Code Area
Calvert County, MD
Calvert County, MD
Frederick County, MD
20678
20685
21788
Prince Frederick
Saint Leonard
Thurmont
Relative Serious Delinquency Rate
September 2010 December 2010
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
High
High
High
ZIP CODES WITH DIMINISHING SERIOUS DELINQUENCY
County
Fairfax County, VA
Fairfax County, VA
Fauquier County, VA
Frederick County, MD
Prince William County, VA
Stafford County, VA
ZIP Code Area
22079
22150
22728
21727
22192
22406
Lorton
Springfield
Midland
Emmitsburg
Woodbridge
Fredericksburg
Relative Serious Delinquency Rate
September 2010 December 2010
High
High
High
High
High
High
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
6
Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area Foreclosure Monitor, Winter 2011
Real Estate Owned Properties
Data presented for real estate owned (REO) properties compare the relative rate of REO in a ZIP
code with the average REO Rate in all ZIP codes. Only areas with more than 500 loans are included
in the REO analysis.
All but Three Counties Had ZIP Codes with High or Highest New REO Risk
Highest REO Risk
High REO Risk
Moderate REO Risk
Minimal REO Risk
Arlington County, VA
Clarke County, VA
Alexandria City, VA
Fairfax County, VA
10
Loudoun County, VA
15
Calvert County, MD
22
Montgomery County, MD
24
District of Columbia
29
Frederick County, MD
33
Washington, D.C.
Washington, D.C.
Metropolitan Area
Metropolitan Area
9
Fauquier County, VA
29
14
29
Prince William County, VA
54
Charles County, MD
10
60
Stafford County, VA
75
Spotsylvania County, VA
20
60
Jefferson County, WV
20
60
Prince George's County,
MD
53
41
Warren County, VA
100
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Percent of ZIP Codes by Real Estate Owned Property Risk Level, December 2010
Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area Foreclosure Monitor, Winter 2011
7
ZIP codes with emerging risk for new REO are those that had relatively high levels of loans in REO
during December, compared with ZIP Codes overall in the region, but moderate or lower risk of new
REO in September. Those with diminishing risk for new REO moved from high or highest risk to a
lower category.
This indicator measures the extent to which loans entered REO after completing foreclosure and are
still being reported to LPS Applied Analytics by servicers within the given month. ZIP codes characterized with moderate or minimal risk for new REO in a particular month may still have large numbers of
existing REO properties from previous months.
See the Foreclosure Monitor Technical Appendix for details about the indicator.
ZIP CODES WITH EMERGING RISK FOR NEW REO
County
ZIP Code Area
Fairfax County, VA
Fairfax County, VA
Fauquier County, VA
Frederick County, MD
Frederick County, MD
Prince William County, VA
20121
20170
20187
21727
21758
22025
Centreville
Herndon
Warrenton
Emmitsburg
Knoxville
Dumfries
Relative REO Risk Level
September 2010 December 2010
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
High
High
High
High
High
High
ZIP CODES WITH DIMINISHING RISK FOR NEW REO
County
Alexandria city, VA
Clarke County, VA
Fairfax County, VA
Fauquier County, VA
Jefferson County, WV
Montgomery County, MD
Montgomery County, MD
Prince George's County, MD
ZIP Code Area
22311
22611
22312
22728
25443
20874
20902
20623
Alexandria
Berryville
Alexandria
Midland
Shepherdstown
Germantown
Silver Spring
Cheltenham
Relative REO Risk Level
September 2010 December 2010
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Moderate
Minimal
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
8
Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area Foreclosure Monitor, Winter 2011
Sales Market
Housing Market Stabilizing After Sharp Decline
Washington, D.C.
Metropolitan Area
Number of Sales
2000
2007
6,582
Median Sales Price
4,209
December
2008
5,353
2009
5,472
2010
Percent Change (%)
2000-10 2007-10 2009-10
5,220
-20.7
24.0
-4.6
$232,448 $407,165 $302,981 $314,677 $317,383
36.5
-22.1
0.9
Average Days on Market
55
107
103
73
75
37.1
-29.7
3.3
Number of New Listings
4,780
7,085
6,707
5,611
5,188
8.5
-26.8
-7.5
Number of Listings
12,709
39,683
33,901
20,483
22,350
75.9
-43.7
9.1
Months of Inventory
3.1
10.4
7.7
6.1
6.2
NA
NA
NA
Note: Sales data included in the table above and following charts are for single-family homes and condominium units.
Total Listings Return to Pre-Boom Levels in 2010
50,000
Number ‐ Three Month Rolling Average
45,000
Total Listings
40,000
Total New Listings
35,000
Total Sales
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area Foreclosure Monitor, Winter 2011
9
Prices Flat in Outer and Far Suburbs Since Mid-2009;
More Volatile in Inner Core and Inner Suburbs
Median Sales Price (Thousands of 12/2010 Dollars)
Three Month Rolling Average
$550
$500
$450
$400
$350
$300
$250
Inner Core
District of Columbia
Inner Suburbs
$200
Outer Suburbs
Far Suburbs
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
$150
2007
2008
2009
2010
Homes Sold More Quickly in Inner & Outer Virginia Suburbs
Contributors: Leah Hendey, Rebecca Grace, Zach McDade and Peter Tatian
About NeighborhoodInfoDC: NeighborhoodInfo DC is a partnership between the Urban Institute and
the Washington, D.C. Local Initiatives Support Corporation to provide
community-based organizations and citizens in the District of Columbia and the Washington region with local data and analysis they can
use to improve the quality of life in their neighborhoods.
About the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG): COG is a regional organization
comprised of 21 local governments surrounding our nation's capital, plus area members of the Maryland and Virginia legislatures, the U.S. Senate, and the U.S. House
of Representatives. COG provides a focus for action and develops sound regional
responses to such issues as the environment, affordable housing, economic development, health and family concerns, human services, population growth, public safety,
and transportation.
About Fannie Mae: This publication was funded through a grant from Fannie Mae. Fannie Mae exists
to expand affordable housing and bring global capital to local communities in order to serve the U.S. housing market. Fannie Mae has
a federal charter and operates in America’s secondary mortgage
market to enhance the liquidity of the mortgage market by providing funds to mortgage bankers and
other lenders so that they may lend to homebuyers.
About the Data: The Washington metropolitan region spans three states and the District of Columbia.
For the analysis presented here, we have adopted the federal government’s 2008 definition of the
Washington, D.C. metropolitan area, which includes jurisdictions not included in the Council of Governments’ footprint. The counties included in each subarea and more information about the source
data and methodology are available in the Foreclosure Monitor Technical Appendix.
LPS Applied Analytics: The indicators on foreclosure, delinquency, and real-estate owned properties
are drawn from point-of-time data provided by LPS Applied Analytics (formerly McDash Analytics,
LLC), a commercial firm that collects data on more than 40 million active mortgages from the major
loan servicers. The indicators represent first-lien mortgages on one- to four-unit properties (including
condominiums) and cover both owner- and renter-occupied units. The data have been adjusted using
several sources because LPS Applied Analytics data does not cover the entire mortgage market and
less coverage of subprime mortgages.
RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC. (RBI): The data on housing market activity, including the volume and prices of home sales, are drawn from RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC. (RBI) a whollyowned subsidiary of Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc., a real estate network for licensed agents, brokers, and appraisers in the Mid-Atlantic region. "The Monthly Market Statistics Detailed Report" is available through the RBI web site for all of the counties in the Washington, D.C.
metropolitan area. All prices presented here have been adjusted for inflation and are in December
2010 dollars. The monthly reports include information on the number of home sales for single-family
homes and condominiums by price range and number of bedrooms; they also report the average and
median sale prices and home financing characteristics. More detailed information is available at:
www.rbintel.com.
For More Information: Electronic versions of the Foreclosure Monitor and its Technical Appendix are
available online at www.mwcog.org and www.NeighborhoodInfoDC.org. To learn more about foreclosure prevention activities in the region, visit the Capital Area Foreclosure Network (CAFN) at
www.CAFN.org.
The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Urban Institute,
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, Fannie Mae, their trustees, or their funders.