Planning for the Schools of Tomorrow
School Enrollment Projections Series
Community Unit School District 95
February 2011
Page Intentionally Left Blank
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
ii
Table of Contents
Part 1 : District-wide Projections
Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 1
Past Projections (2008-2009 School Year) ............................................................................................ 1
District Enrollment History, 2001-2010 ................................................................................................ 3
Kindergarten Enrollment Trends .......................................................................................................... 7
Area Birth Trends .................................................................................................................................. 9
Population Estimates and Projections ................................................................................................ 10
Residential Development .................................................................................................................... 14
Method ............................................................................................................................................... 17
School Enrollment Projections ............................................................................................................ 19
Baseline Projection .......................................................................................................................... 19
5 Year Trend Projection ................................................................................................................... 20
3 Year Trend Projection ................................................................................................................... 21
Last Year Pattern Projection............................................................................................................ 22
Kindergarten Trend Projection........................................................................................................ 23
Comparison of Projection Models ...................................................................................................... 24
Individual School Enrollment
Elementary School Enrollment Histories ............................................................................................ 29
Isaac Fox Elementary School ............................................................................................................... 31
May Whitney Elementary School ....................................................................................................... 37
Sarah Adams Elementary School ........................................................................................................ 43
Seth Paine Elementary School ............................................................................................................ 49
Spencer Loomis Elementary School .................................................................................................... 55
Middle School Enrollment Histories ................................................................................................... 61
Middle School North ........................................................................................................................... 62
Middle School South ........................................................................................................................... 67
Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................... 72
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
iii
Introduction
This report offers a summary of the Enrollment Projection Analysis completed for the Community
Unit School District 95 by the Applied Population Laboratory, University of Wisconsin - Madison.
Projections (2011-2020) are provided for the district as a whole, and individually for each grade and
grade grouping. Later in the report are projections for the individual elementary schools. The
projection process uses a combination of historical enrollment data, housing starts and turnover data,
and population trends and projections to create reasonable assumptions about future growth
scenarios and the likely impact on the school district.
Past Projections (2008-2009 School Year)
Table A compares the actual enrollment from 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 school years to the
projections that were completed in the 2008-2009 school year. All models slightly over-projected
enrollment and as expected the projection error increased from 2009-10 to 2010-11 school years. The
Kindergarten Trend model was the most reliable of the four models.
TABLE A
Comparison of Actual Enrollment to Projected Enrollment
Community Unit School District 95
Baseline
5 Year
2 Year
Kindergarten
Actual
2009 Projections
09-10
10-11
6,189
6,069
6,197
6,082
6,197
6,076
6,183
6,060
6,164
6,023
Absolute Error
09-10
10-11
25
46
33
59
33
53
19
37
Percent Error
09-10
10-11
0.41%
0.77%
0.53%
0.98%
0.53%
0.87%
0.31%
0.62%
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
1
Table B compares the actual enrollment for the current school year to the projections that were
completed two years ago. In general, models slightly over-projected grades K-5 and 6-8 and slightly
under-projected high school enrollment. This would indicate that grades K-8 declined more than
expected and grades 9-12 did not decline as quickly as expected.
TABLE B
Comparison of Actual Enrollment with Projected Enrollment (2008-09 School Year)
Community Unit School District 95
Grade
2010-11
Enrollment
Baseline Model
10-11
Difference
5 Year Trend Model
10-11
Difference
2 Year "Trend" Model
10-11
Difference
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
336
380
405
407
420
469
487
451
462
530
551
532
593
336
404
407
415
440
472
506
458
471
534
523
522
582
0
24
2
8
20
3
19
7
9
4
-28
-10
-11
352
416
395
410
440
475
511
459
471
531
517
518
586
16
36
-10
3
20
6
24
8
9
1
-34
-14
-7
334
395
403
423
446
480
511
453
460
525
525
527
593
-2
15
-2
16
26
11
24
2
-2
-5
-26
-5
0
345
400
395
410
440
475
511
459
471
531
517
518
586
9
20
-10
3
20
6
24
8
9
1
-34
-14
-7
TOTAL
6,023
6,069
46
6,082
59
6,076
53
6,060
37
K-12
K-5
6-8
9-12
6,023
2,417
1,400
2,206
6,069
2,473
1,435
2,161
46
56
35
-45
6,082
2,488
1,441
2,152
59
71
41
-54
6,076
2,481
1,425
2,170
53
64
25
-36
6,060
2,466
1,441
2,152
37
49
41
-54
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
Kindergarten Trend Model
10-11
Difference
2
District Enrollment History, 2001-2010
Figure 1-A and Tables 1 and 2 display the last ten years of enrollment history in the Community
Unit School District 95. District enrollment has declined overall, from 6,325 students in the 2001/02
school year to 6,023 students in 2010/11. This is a decline of 302 students, or almost 5% decrease (0.5% annually) in the number of students enrolled in the district.
Community Unit School District 95
Figure 1-A
Student Enrollment
7,000
6,800
6,600
6,400
Students
6,200
6,000
5,800
5,600
5,400
5,200
5,000
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
3
TABLE 1
Student Enrollment
Community Unit School District 95
SCHOOL YEAR
05-06
06-07
01-02
02-03
03-04
04-05
07-08
08-09
09-10
10-11
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
407
484
483
521
534
481
575
525
505
465
465
450
430
377
460
489
488
525
538
507
586
535
530
471
473
455
376
457
469
494
498
526
544
505
583
545
528
464
487
394
413
427
474
492
496
541
560
518
596
534
534
459
388
462
424
437
485
505
509
557
560
529
597
526
532
358
445
464
434
440
497
510
512
571
571
507
597
518
352
408
450
485
443
461
509
514
506
583
565
510
592
346
399
424
460
493
444
460
515
511
524
588
569
517
351
410
396
420
464
481
450
460
528
543
534
583
544
336
380
405
407
420
469
487
451
462
530
551
532
593
TOTAL
6,325
6,434
6,476
6,438
6,511
6,424
6,378
6,250
6,164
6,023
K-12
K-5
6-8
9-12
6,325
2,910
1,605
1,810
6,434
2,877
1,628
1,929
6,476
2,820
1,632
2,024
6,438
2,696
1,619
2,123
6,511
2,701
1,626
2,184
6,424
2,638
1,593
2,193
6,378
2,599
1,529
2,250
6,250
2,566
1,486
2,198
6,164
2,522
1,438
2,204
6,023
2,417
1,400
2,206
TABLE 2
Student Enrollment Changes
Community Unit School District 95
ABSOLUTE CHANGE
PERCENT CHANGE
AVERAGE ANNUAL
PERCENT CHANGE
'01 to '10 '01 to '05 '06 to '10
GRADE
'01 to '10
'01 to '05
'06 to '10
'01 to '10
'01 to '05
'06 to '10
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
-71
-104
-78
-114
-114
-12
-88
-74
-43
65
86
82
163
-19
-22
-59
-84
-49
24
-66
32
55
64
132
76
102
-22
-65
-59
-27
-20
-28
-23
-61
-109
-41
44
-65
75
-17.4
-21.5
-16.1
-21.9
-21.3
-2.5
-15.3
-14.1
-8.5
14.0
18.5
18.2
37.9
-4.7
-4.5
-12.2
-16.1
-9.2
5.0
-11.5
6.1
10.9
13.8
28.4
16.9
23.7
-6.1
-14.6
-12.7
-6.2
-4.5
-5.6
-4.5
-11.9
-19.1
-7.2
8.7
-10.9
14.5
-1.9
-2.4
-1.8
-2.4
-2.4
-0.3
-1.7
-1.6
-0.9
1.6
2.1
2.0
4.2
-1.2
-1.1
-3.1
-4.0
-2.3
1.2
-2.9
1.5
2.7
3.4
7.1
4.2
5.9
-1.5
-3.7
-3.2
-1.6
-1.1
-1.4
-1.1
-3.0
-4.8
-1.8
2.2
-2.7
3.6
TOTAL
-302
186
-401
-4.8
2.9
-6.2
-0.5
0.7
-1.6
K-12
K-5
6-8
9-12
-302
-493
-205
396
186
-209
21
374
-401
-221
-193
13
-4.8
-16.9
-12.8
21.9
2.9
-7.2
1.3
20.7
-6.2
-8.4
-12.1
0.6
-0.5
-1.9
-1.4
2.4
0.7
-1.8
0.3
5.2
-1.6
-2.1
-3.0
0.1
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
4
Figure 1-B shows enrollment history broken down by grade groupings (K-5, 6-8, and 9-12). The
elementary school enrollment has decreased by 2% annually over the last ten years. Middle school
enrollment in the first five years increased by 0.3% annually but declined in the last five years (-3%
annually). In high school, enrollment has increased by 2.4% in the last ten years.
Community Unit School District 95
Figure 1-B
Student Enrollment by Grade Grouping
3,500
3,000
Students
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
K-5
2005/06
2006/07
6-8
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
9-12
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
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Figure 1-C shows the age structure in the fall of 2010 of the student population with the number of
kindergarteners at the bottom and the number of 12 th graders at top. 12th graders are the largest of
the high school grades. 6th graders are the largest of the middle school grades and 5th graders are the
largest of the elementary school grades.
Community Unit School District 95
Figure 1-C
Age Structure, Fall 2010
593
12
532
11
551
10
530
9
462
8
451
Grade
7
487
6
469
5
420
4
3
407
2
405
380
1
336
K
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Number of Students Enrolled
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
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Kindergarten Enrollment Trends
Examining trends in kindergarten enrollment is particularly informative for gaining perspective on
future district enrollment, as today’s kindergartners will gradually make up tomorrow’s students at the
higher grade levels as they age and move through the school system. When kindergarten enrollment is
decreasing, elementary and middle school enrollment might be expected to decrease in the future,
while high school enrollment may decrease farther in the future. Figure 2-A shows kindergarten
enrollment history in black, and trend lines depicting kindergarten enrollment in red and blue. The
“Long Term Trend” line (shown in red) averages kindergarten enrollment changes between 2001 and
2010. The “Recent Trend” line emphasizes kindergarten enrollment changes over the last five years.
In the Community Unit School District 95, kindergarten enrollment is trending downwards with the
recent trend showing less of a decrease than the long term trend. The recent trend will be used to
project kindergartners for the Kindergarten Trend model.
Figure 2-A
Community Unit School District 95
Kindergarten Enrollment Trends
450
Projected
400
350
Students
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Actual
Long Term Trend
Recent Trend
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
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In addition to examining kindergarten enrollment on its own, comparing kindergarten enrollment
to outgoing 12th graders offers a snapshot of how the age structure of district enrollment is shifting
either from older to younger, or younger to older. Districts tend to experience overall growth when
kindergarten enrollment outpaces outgoing students, and they tend to experience decline when
kindergartners do not fully replace the number of graduates. In the Community Unit School District 95,
each year after 2001-2002 kindergartners have not replaced outgoing 12th graders and the gap has
widen each year.
Community Unit School District 95
Figure 2-B
Kindergarten Replacement
700
600
500
Students
400
300
200
100
0
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
Previous Year's 12th Grade Enrollment
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Kindergarten Enrollment
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
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Area Birth Trends
We use historical and projected birth data to forecast the number of kindergarten students who
will enroll in the Community Unit School District 95 in future years. Figure 3 shows (in black) the
number of births to mothers living in municipalities that fall within school district boundaries, by year,
from 1990-2008, as collected from the Illinois Department of Public Health. We count resident births
from the Villages of Deer Park, Hawthorn Woods, Kildeer, and Lake Zurich. The red line represents
birth trends over the long term and the blue line examines birth trends for the last six years. The long
term and recent birth trends are trending downwards.
Figure 3
Community Unit School District 95
Area Births
600
Projected
500
400
300
200
100
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Long Term Trend
Year
1990
1991
1992
# of Births
455
484
513
Year
2000
2001
2002
# of Births
405
374
400
Source: Illinois Department of Public Health
Recent Trend
1993
527
2003
404
1994
480
2004
390
Actual
1995
463
2005
374
1996
480
2006
385
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
1997
436
2007
384
1998
422
2008
333
1999
394
9
Population Estimates and Projections
This section examines population trends of the recent past and projected population change into
the future for municipalities that fall within the Community Unit School District 95 area. Changes in
the total population of the district area, particularly when examined by age, provide clues into how the
school age population may be changing.
Table 3 and Figure 4-A provide U. S. Census estimates for district area municipalities from 1980 to
2009. These municipal estimates can be compared with estimates for Lake County and the State of
Illinois. The Community Unit School District 95 area grew quickly from 1980-1990, but from 1990-2000
growth slowed. Since 2000, general population growth has continued to slow.
TABLE 3
Population of Municipalities: 1980-2009
Community Unit School District 95
Municipality
Census
1980
Census
1990
POPULATION
Census
2000
Deer Park
Hawthorn Woods
Kildeer
Lake Zurich
District Area
Lake County
State of Illinois
1,368
1,653
1,609
8,225
12,855
440,372
11,426,518
2,887
4,423
2,257
14,947
24,514
516,418
11,430,602
Municipality
1980 to
1990
PERCENT CHANGE
1990 to
2000 to
2000
2005
Deer Park
Hawthorn Woods
Kildeer
Lake Zurich
District Area
Lake County
State of Illinois
111.0%
167.6%
40.3%
81.7%
90.7%
17.3%
0.0%
7.4%
35.7%
53.3%
21.1%
25.1%
24.8%
8.6%
3,102
6,002
3,460
18,104
30,668
644,356
12,419,293
4.4%
19.9%
16.1%
11.7%
13.1%
9.1%
2.4%
est.
2005
3,240
7,196
4,016
20,219
34,671
702,682
12,719,550
est.
2009
3,352
8,068
4,114
20,427
35,961
712,567
12,910,409
2005 to
2009
AVG.
ANNUAL
2000-2009
3.5%
12.1%
2.4%
1.0%
3.7%
1.4%
1.5%
1.0%
4.3%
2.4%
1.6%
2.2%
1.3%
0.5%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
10
Community Unit School District 95
Figure 4-A
Population for Area Municipalities
25,000
20,000
Population
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1980
1990
Deer Park
2000
Hawthorn Woods
2005
Kildeer
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
2009
Lake Zurich
11
Population, household, and employment projections to 2030 for Community Unit School District 95
area municipalities are provided in Table 4. These projections suggest that area population and
employment will increase in the coming years.
TABLE 4
Demographic Projections
Community Unit School District 95
Municipality
Deer Park
Hawthorn Woods
Kildeer
Lake Zurich
Population
2000
2030
3,102
3,846
6,002
15,951
3,460
5,069
18,104
20,571
Households
2000
2030
989
1,311
1,831
4,674
1,077
1,730
5,746
6,929
Employment
2000
2030
172
2,780
520
7,120
799
1,669
10,632
16,081
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning
Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission 2030 Forecasts, September 2006
Table 5 shows population projections by age for Lake County. Because these projections are for
the entirety of Lake County, they may or may not resemble the future age structure of the population
within the Community Unit School District 95 area.
TABLE 5
Lake County Population Projections by Age: 2010-2035
Community Unit School District 95
Lake County
Age Group
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Totals
2010
51,142
56,682
58,482
54,848
46,951
43,541
45,914
53,796
61,010
58,351
47,740
37,775
26,031
17,826
14,181
12,466
8,760
8,264
2015
51,548
54,873
59,385
61,522
53,560
53,435
50,190
51,240
56,639
62,183
56,699
45,137
34,613
23,220
15,938
12,201
9,971
10,564
2020
52,555
53,840
56,530
60,148
54,582
58,074
57,520
53,579
52,954
57,208
59,227
52,407
39,827
30,015
20,526
13,732
9,650
12,477
2025
54,506
54,515
55,308
56,773
51,541
58,686
61,558
60,440
55,074
53,443
54,009
54,483
46,293
34,630
26,751
17,842
10,914
13,484
2030
56,873
57,532
56,651
57,090
52,305
55,954
63,891
65,770
62,658
55,901
51,294
50,640
49,997
41,918
31,371
23,431
14,565
15,404
2035
53,944
58,209
58,451
56,300
48,042
53,453
58,671
65,865
66,439
62,398
52,374
46,618
44,717
44,279
37,732
27,463
19,052
19,017
703,760
762,918
794,851
820,250
863,245
873,024
Source: State of Illinois, Department of Com merce and Economic Opportunity
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
12
Figure 4-B shows population estimates for 2009 by age for Lake County from the U.S. Census
Bureau and population projections for 2015 produced by Illinois Department of Commerce and
Economic Opportunity. Population projections indicate the growth of the under 5 population but a
decline in ages 5-9 population during this time period.
Age Structure
Figure 4-B
Lake County
85plus
80 to 84
Males
Females
75 to 79
70 to 74
65 to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50 to 54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35 to 39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
Under 5
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
2015 Projections
0
Number of People
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2009 Estimate
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
13
Residential Development
Table 6 shows the number of housing starts in the Community Unit School District 95 over the past
ten years. Area housing starts have fluctuated from a high of 298 single family homes in 2004, to a low
of 32 single family homes in 2008.
TABLE 6-A
School District Area Housing Starts
Community Unit School District 95
District Area
TOTAL
Single Family
Two Family
Deer Park
TOTAL
Single Family
Two Family
Hawthorn Woods
TOTAL
Single Family
Two Family
Kildeer
TOTAL
Single Family
Two Family
Lake Zurich
TOTAL
Single Family
Two Family
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
129
129
0
227
201
26
181
175
6
133
123
10
425
298
127
266
247
19
185
181
4
122
122
0
32
32
0
38
38
0
5
5
0
4
4
0
5
5
0
4
4
0
18
10
8
1
1
0
10
10
0
39
39
0
5
5
0
1
1
0
48
48
0
48
48
0
58
58
0
49
49
0
131
108
23
177
167
10
67
63
4
52
52
0
21
21
0
18
18
0
42
42
0
38
38
0
43
43
0
23
23
0
17
17
0
18
18
0
20
20
0
5
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
34
34
0
137
111
26
75
69
6
57
47
10
259
163
96
70
61
9
88
88
0
26
26
0
6
6
0
19
19
0
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
The majority of housing development over the ten year period has occurred in the Village of Lake
Zurich and Hawthorn Woods. Most of the development in the area has consisted of single-family
homes with some two family residential developments occurring in the first half of the ten year period.
Households in two-family units, on average, contain fewer school-aged children than single family
homes. The entire district area has experienced a steady decline in single family housing development
since 2004.
Figure 5-A shows the number of residential building permits issued by municipality for communities
within the Community Unit School District 95 area. Figure 5-B shows housing starts in the area by type
of housing unit—single family homes and two family housing units.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
14
Community Unit School District 95
Figure 5-A
Area Housing Starts by Municipality
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
Deer Park
2004
2005
Hawthorn Woods
2006
2007
Kildeer
2008
2009
Lake Zurich
Community Unit School District 95
Figure 5-B
Area Housing Starts by Type
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
Single Family
2004
2005
2006
Two Family
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
2007
2008
2009
Total
15
Examining trends in recent housing development can help to explain how migration into or out of
the Community Unit School District 95 area might be affecting school enrollment. If the number of
housing starts in the district area is expected to be reasonably consistent for the next several years,
then we assume that in-migration of school-age children will also remain relatively consistent. If the
number of housing starts is expected to decrease significantly, school district may experience a
decrease in student enrollment. However, it is important to recognize that the number of housing
starts in any given year is dependent upon a large number of confounding variables (decisions of local,
county, and state policy makers, residential developers, interest rates, demand for housing, etc.),
making future growth patterns difficult to predict. Although somewhat outdated, Table 6-B provides
the household demographics of the four municipalities from 2000.
TABLE 6-B
Household Demographics (2000)
Community Unit School District 95
Municipality
Deer Park
Hawthorn Woods
Kildeer
Lake Zurich
Households
Average
Size
Household
Income
Median
Age
989
1,831
1,077
5,746
3.14
3.28
3.21
3.12
$149,233
$132,720
$137,498
$84,125
40
38
39
35
Source: Greater Chicago Housing and Community Development
It is important to consider that turnover in ownership of existing housing stock also contributes to
changes in enrollment. A district can decrease enrollment depending upon the cycle of resident
homeowners, regardless of housing starts. For instance, a younger community will have a higher childper-household ratio, whereas an older community will have a lower child-per-household ratio.
However, over time turnover in ownership in an older community may result in an increase in the
child-per-household number. As younger families move into the area, the school district will tend to
see new students enrolling into the district’s schools. Absent new housing development or housing
turnover, families age in place and the number of school-aged children declines.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
16
Method
In order to generate school enrollment projections, we rely on a commonly used demographic
technique called the “cohort survival” method or the “grade progression ratio” method. This method
advances current students through the school system over time and applies rates of transfer (or
“survival”) as the students who are now in school age from year to year and grade to grade. It is
through these rates of transfer that we make assumptions about how migration into and out of the
district and transfers to and from different schools or home schooling will impact future enrollment.
Grade Progression Ratios
Grade progression ratios are used to measure district enrollment changes, year to year and grade
to grade that have occurred within the school district in the recent past. By examining these, we can
better understand recent changes in enrollment. We use these ratios as the rates of transfer to inform
future student projections.
Table 7 shows the grade progression ratios for the Community Unit School District 95. The ratios
measure the effects of in- and out-migration and the transfer of students between private and public
schools. The ratios are calculated for several pairs of years and then averages of these based on
different time-frames are calculated for each grade.
TABLE 7
Grade Progression Ratios
Community Unit School District 95
YEAR
CHANGES
B:K
K:1
1:2
2:3
3:4
4:5
5:6
6:7
7:8
8:9
9:10
10:11
11:12
01-02/02-03
02-03/03-04
03-04/04-05
04-05/05-06
05-06/06-07
06-07/07-08
07-08/08-09
08-09/09-10
09-10/10-11
0.836
0.881
0.977
0.967
0.931
0.900
0.859
0.889
0.886
1.130
1.212
1.098
1.173
1.147
1.140
1.134
1.185
1.083
1.010
1.020
0.934
1.027
1.004
1.011
1.039
0.992
0.988
1.010
1.010
1.011
1.023
1.024
1.045
1.022
0.991
1.028
1.008
1.020
0.996
1.023
1.007
1.021
1.016
1.009
1.000
1.007
1.002
0.996
1.026
1.025
1.048
1.002
0.976
1.011
1.054
1.011
1.029
1.026
1.010
1.024
0.998
1.014
1.012
1.019
0.996
1.029
1.030
1.006
1.008
1.012
1.000
1.002
1.019
0.995
1.026
1.000
1.025
0.988
0.994
1.025
1.004
1.050
1.019
1.022
1.021
1.020
1.021
1.036
1.063
1.004
1.013
0.996
0.980
1.002
0.958
0.989
1.009
1.019
1.015
1.017
0.985
1.011
0.985
1.000
1.006
1.007
0.991
0.996
1.011
1.030
0.989
0.996
0.985
0.992
1.014
0.956
1.017
Baseline
0.891
1.141
1.007
1.018
1.013
1.010
1.018
1.009
1.011
1.027
1.003
0.998
1.001
5 Year Trend
0.893
1.138
1.007
1.022
1.011
1.012
1.012
1.006
1.007
1.029
0.998
1.000
0.993
3 Year Trend
0.878
1.134
1.007
1.014
1.008
0.996
1.008
1.005
1.008
1.034
1.014
0.998
0.996
Last Year Pattern
0.886
1.083
0.988
1.028
1.000
1.011
1.012
1.002
1.004
1.004
1.015
0.996
1.017
*Shaded progression ratios are excluded from the Baseline Average
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
17
The grade progression ratios can be interpreted in the following manner. The Baseline ratio for K:1
is 1.141. This means that in the Community Unit School District 95, the first grade class is on average
14% larger each year than the kindergarten class was the previous year (the result of transfers from
other schools and in-migration into the district). The B:K Baseline ratio of .891 indicates that on
average, approximately 89% of children born in the district will enroll in kindergarten in Community
Unit School District 95. Outliers (ratios outside of one standard deviation of the mean) are not
included in the calculation of the Baseline average ratios.
In order to examine future enrollment under different growth assumptions, we generate four sets
of grade progression ratios that correspond to the different projection models shown later in this
report. In addition to the Baseline ratios (averages 10 years of enrollment), we examine rates of
transfer in the last 5 years, the last 2 years, and last year effectively weighing enrollment change
patterns from different time periods more heavily than the Baseline. Any significant deviations from
the rates of in- and out-migration in the district area will have a corresponding effect on enrollment.
These additional models allow us to examine alternative outcomes compared to the overall trends of
the Baseline model. Figure 6 shows the differences between these four sets of grade progression
ratios.
Community Unit School District 95
Figure 6
Grade Progression Ratios, by Model
1.200
1.150
Grade Progression Ratio
1.100
1.050
1.000
0.950
0.900
0.850
0.800
B:K
K:1
1:2
2:3
Baseline Trend
3:4
4:5
5 Year Trend
5:6
6:7
7:8
3 Year Trend
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
8:9
9:10
10:11
11:12
Last Year Pattern
18
School Enrollment Projections
When considering all of the projections provided in this report for decision-making, it is important
to recognize that population projections of all types, including school enrollment projections, are more
accurate in the immediate future than they are farther into the future. This is especially true for
grades K-5, because the students who will enter kindergarten after 2013 have not yet been born.
Overall, our projections are more reliable over the next five years (up to the 2015/16 school year) than
they are in the latter half of the next decade.
Baseline Projection
The Baseline model (Table 8) projects enrollments using the assumption that average trends year
to year, grade to grade, will continue into the future. This model assumes that long term (past ten
years) trends in births and enrollment will be representative of future trends in the district. Enrollment
is projected to decrease from 6,023 students in 2010 to 5,429 students in 2015. Over the next five
years (2015-16), the Baseline model projects that enrollment will decrease by 9.9%.
TABLE 8
Baseline Projection Model
Community Unit School District 95
SCHOOL YEAR
15-16
16-17
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
340
384
383
412
412
424
477
491
456
474
531
550
532
342
388
386
390
418
416
432
482
497
468
476
530
550
312
391
391
393
395
422
424
436
487
510
470
475
531
307
356
394
398
399
399
430
428
441
500
512
469
475
308
351
359
401
403
403
406
433
432
452
502
510
469
300
351
354
365
406
407
410
410
438
444
454
500
511
293
343
354
360
370
410
414
414
414
450
445
453
501
285
334
345
360
365
374
418
418
418
425
451
444
453
278
326
337
352
365
368
380
421
423
429
427
450
445
270
317
328
343
356
369
375
384
426
434
431
426
450
TOTAL
5,868
5,776
5,636
5,506
5,429
5,351
5,221
5,092
5,001
4,910
K-12
K-5
6-8
9-12
5,868
2,355
1,425
2,088
5,776
2,341
1,410
2,024
5,636
2,304
1,347
1,985
5,506
2,253
1,298
1,955
5,429
2,224
1,272
1,933
5,351
2,184
1,258
1,909
5,221
2,130
1,242
1,849
5,092
2,064
1,254
1,774
5,001
2,026
1,225
1,751
4,910
1,984
1,185
1,741
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
19
5 Year Trend Projection
The 5 Year Trend model (Table 9) uses the grade progression ratios from the last five years and the
recent trend in births to project what future enrollments would look like if more recent patterns were
representative of future trends. For the 5 Year Trend, enrollment is projected to decrease from 6,023
students in 2010 to 5,398 students in 2015. With recent migration rates weighted more heavily,
enrollment in the Community Unit School District 95 is projected to decrease by 10% over the next five
years.
TABLE 9
5 Year Trend Projection Model
Community Unit School District 95
SCHOOL YEAR
15-16
16-17
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
341
382
383
414
411
425
474
490
454
475
529
551
528
343
387
385
391
418
416
430
477
493
467
474
529
547
313
390
390
393
395
423
421
432
481
507
466
474
525
309
356
393
399
397
400
428
423
436
494
506
466
471
309
351
358
402
403
402
405
431
427
448
493
507
463
299
351
354
366
406
408
407
407
434
439
447
493
503
290
341
354
362
370
411
412
409
410
446
438
447
490
281
330
343
361
365
374
416
415
412
422
445
438
444
272
320
332
350
365
370
379
418
418
424
421
445
435
262
309
322
340
354
370
374
381
421
430
423
421
442
TOTAL
5,858
5,759
5,613
5,479
5,398
5,314
5,180
5,047
4,949
4,849
K-12
K-5
6-8
9-12
5,858
2,356
1,418
2,083
5,759
2,341
1,400
2,018
5,613
2,305
1,334
1,973
5,479
2,254
1,287
1,938
5,398
2,225
1,262
1,911
5,314
2,184
1,248
1,882
5,180
2,127
1,232
1,821
5,047
2,055
1,243
1,749
4,949
2,009
1,215
1,725
4,849
1,957
1,176
1,716
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
20
3 Year Trend Projection
The 3 Year Trend model (Table 10) uses the grade progression ratios from the last three years to
project what future enrollments would look like if even more recent patterns were representative of
future trends. For the 3 Year Trend, enrollment is projected to decrease from 6,023 students in 2010
to 5,331 students in 2015, or an 11.5% decrease over the next five years.
TABLE 10
3 Year Trend Projection Model
Community Unit School District 95
SCHOOL YEAR
15-16
16-17
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
335
381
382
410
410
418
473
489
455
478
537
550
530
337
380
383
388
414
409
422
475
493
470
484
537
548
307
383
382
389
391
412
412
424
479
510
477
484
534
304
349
385
387
392
389
416
414
427
495
517
476
482
303
344
351
390
390
390
393
418
417
442
502
516
474
294
344
347
356
394
389
393
394
421
432
448
501
514
285
334
346
351
359
392
392
395
397
435
438
447
499
276
323
336
351
354
357
395
394
398
411
441
437
445
267
313
326
340
354
353
360
397
397
412
417
441
435
258
303
315
330
343
353
356
362
400
411
418
416
439
TOTAL
5,849
5,739
5,583
5,432
5,331
5,226
5,071
4,920
4,812
4,703
K-12
K-5
6-8
9-12
5,849
2,338
1,417
2,095
5,739
2,311
1,390
2,039
5,583
2,264
1,315
2,004
5,432
2,206
1,257
1,969
5,331
2,170
1,227
1,934
5,226
2,123
1,209
1,894
5,071
2,067
1,185
1,819
4,920
1,998
1,188
1,734
4,812
1,953
1,154
1,704
4,703
1,902
1,118
1,683
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
21
Last Year Pattern Projection
The Last Year Pattern model (Table 11) uses the grade progression ratios from the 2009/10 to
2010/11 school years to project what future enrollments would look like if this pattern were
representative of future trends. For the Last Year Pattern, enrollment is projected to decrease from
6,023 students in 2010 to 5,215 students in 2015. This is a decrease of 808 students (-13%) over the
next five years.
TABLE 11
Last Year Pattern Projection Model
Community Unit School District 95
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
338
364
375
416
407
425
475
488
453
464
538
549
541
340
366
359
386
416
411
430
476
490
455
471
536
558
310
369
361
369
386
421
417
431
478
492
461
469
545
306
336
364
371
369
390
426
417
433
480
499
460
477
306
332
332
374
371
373
395
427
419
434
487
497
468
297
331
328
341
374
375
378
396
429
421
441
485
506
288
321
327
337
341
378
380
379
397
430
427
493
439
279
312
318
336
337
344
383
381
380
399
437
425
447
269
302
308
326
336
340
349
384
382
382
405
435
433
260
292
298
316
326
340
345
350
385
384
387
403
443
TOTAL
5,832
5,694
5,508
5,328
5,215
5,101
4,938
4,777
4,652
4,530
K-12
K-5
6-8
9-12
5,832
2,325
1,416
2,092
5,694
2,279
1,396
2,019
5,508
2,216
1,325
1,967
5,328
2,137
1,276
1,916
5,215
2,088
1,241
1,886
5,101
2,046
1,202
1,853
4,938
1,992
1,156
1,790
4,777
1,925
1,144
1,708
4,652
1,882
1,115
1,655
4,530
1,833
1,080
1,617
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
22
Kindergarten Trend Projection
For this method we perform a trend analysis to project the number of future kindergarten
students. Then, the 5 Year Trend progression ratios are used for projecting the other grades (1-12) in
the district. In other words, this model assumes that the number of new kindergartners each year over
the next decade will continue to follow a trend similar to the trend in kindergarten enrollment over the
last ten years. According to this hybrid projection method (Table 12), enrollment is projected to
decrease from 6,023 students in 2010 to 5,440 students in 2015, or a decrease of 9.7% over the next
five years.
TABLE 12
Kindergarten Trend Projection Model
Community Unit School District 95
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
340
382
383
414
411
425
474
490
454
475
529
551
528
335
386
385
391
418
416
430
477
493
467
474
529
547
331
381
389
393
395
423
421
432
481
507
466
474
525
326
376
384
398
397
400
428
423
436
494
506
466
471
322
371
379
392
402
402
405
431
427
448
493
507
463
317
366
374
387
396
407
407
407
434
439
447
493
503
313
361
368
382
391
401
411
409
410
446
438
447
490
308
356
363
376
386
396
406
414
412
422
445
438
444
304
350
358
371
380
390
400
408
417
424
421
445
435
299
345
353
366
375
385
395
403
411
429
423
421
442
TOTAL
5,857
5,750
5,620
5,507
5,440
5,376
5,268
5,166
5,105
5,047
K-12
K-5
6-8
9-12
5,857
2,355
1,418
2,083
5,750
2,332
1,400
2,018
5,620
2,313
1,334
1,973
5,507
2,281
1,287
1,938
5,440
2,268
1,262
1,911
5,376
2,247
1,248
1,882
5,268
2,216
1,230
1,821
5,166
2,185
1,232
1,749
5,105
2,154
1,225
1,725
5,047
2,124
1,209
1,715
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
23
Comparison of Projection Models
Figures 7-10 and Tables 13-16 compare the five enrollment projection models broken down by
total K-12 district enrollment and by grade groupings.
Community Unit School District 95
Figure 7
K-12 Enrollment History and Projections
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Last Year Pattern
Kindergarten Trend
Actual
TABLE 13
Summary of K-12 Enrollment Projections
Community Unit School District 95
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
Last Year Pattern
11-12
5,868
5,858
5,849
5,857
5,832
12-13
5,776
5,759
5,739
5,750
5,694
13-14
5,636
5,613
5,583
5,620
5,508
14-15
5,506
5,479
5,432
5,507
5,328
15-16
5,429
5,398
5,331
5,440
5,215
16-17
5,351
5,314
5,226
5,376
5,101
17-18
5,221
5,180
5,071
5,268
4,938
18-19
5,092
5,047
4,920
5,166
4,777
19-20
5,001
4,949
4,812
5,105
4,652
20-21
4,910
4,849
4,703
5,047
4,530
All models project decreases in K-12 enrollment. The Last Year Pattern model projects the greatest
decrease in K-12 enrollment while the Kindergarten Trend model projects less of a decrease. Districtwide enrollment projections five years from now (2015) forecast a range of enrollment from 5,215 to
5,440.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
24
Community Unit School District 95
Figure 8
K-5 Enrollment History and Projections
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Last Year Pattern
Actual
Kindergarten Trend
TABLE 14
Summary of K-5 Enrollment Projections
Community Unit School District 95
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
Last Year Pattern
11-12
2,355
2,356
2,338
2,355
2,325
12-13
2,341
2,341
2,311
2,332
2,279
13-14
2,304
2,305
2,264
2,313
2,216
14-15
2,253
2,254
2,206
2,281
2,137
15-16
2,224
2,225
2,170
2,268
2,088
16-17
2,184
2,184
2,123
2,247
2,046
17-18
2,130
2,127
2,067
2,216
1,992
18-19
2,064
2,055
1,998
2,185
1,925
19-20
2,026
2,009
1,953
2,154
1,882
20-21
1,984
1,957
1,902
2,124
1,833
For the elementary grades, the Last Year Pattern model projects the greatest decrease in K-12
enrollment while the Kindergarten Trend model projects less decrease. The K-5 enrollment projections
five years from now (2015) forecast a range of enrollment from 2,088 to 2,268.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
25
Community Unit School District 95
Figure 9
6-8 Enrollment History and Projections
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Last Year Pattern
Kindergarten Trend
Actual
TABLE 15
Summary of 6-8 Enrollment Projections
Community Unit School District 95
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
Last Year Pattern
11-12
1,425
1,418
1,417
1,418
1,416
12-13
1,410
1,400
1,390
1,400
1,396
13-14
1,347
1,334
1,315
1,334
1,325
14-15
1,298
1,287
1,257
1,287
1,276
15-16
1,272
1,262
1,227
1,262
1,241
16-17
1,258
1,248
1,209
1,248
1,202
17-18
1,242
1,232
1,185
1,230
1,156
18-19
1,254
1,243
1,188
1,232
1,144
19-20
1,225
1,215
1,154
1,225
1,115
20-21
1,185
1,176
1,118
1,209
1,080
At the middle school level, all models project slight increases in enrollment the next two years, but
a decreasing enrollment will likely occur in the long term. Enrollment projections five years from now
(2015) project a range of enrollment from 1,227 to 1,272.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
26
Community Unit School District 95
Figure 10
9-12 Enrollment History and Projections
2,400
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Last Year Pattern
Kindergarten Trend
Actual
TABLE 16
Summary of 9-12 Enrollment Projections
Community Unit School District 95
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
Last Year Pattern
11-12
2,088
2,083
2,095
2,083
2,092
12-13
2,024
2,018
2,039
2,018
2,019
13-14
1,985
1,973
2,004
1,973
1,967
14-15
1,955
1,938
1,969
1,938
1,916
15-16
1,933
1,911
1,934
1,911
1,886
16-17
1,909
1,882
1,894
1,882
1,853
17-18
1,849
1,821
1,819
1,821
1,790
18-19
1,774
1,749
1,734
1,749
1,708
19-20
1,751
1,725
1,704
1,725
1,655
20-21
1,741
1,716
1,683
1,715
1,617
At the high school level, all projection models forecast decreasing enrollment over the long term.
The Last Year Pattern model projects the greatest decrease in enrollment and the Baseline model
projects less of a decrease then the other models. 9-12 enrollment projections five years from now
(2015) project a range of enrollment from 1,886 to 1,934.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
27
Individual School Projections
This report provides individual school projections for Isaac Fox, May Whitney, Sarah Adams, Seth
Paine, and Spencer Loomis Elementary Schools and Middle School North and Middle School South. Of
these schools, Seth Paine, Spencer Loomis, and approximately 48% of May Whitney are “feeder”
schools for Middle School North. While Isaac Fox, Sarah Adams, and approximately 52% of May
Whitney are “feeder” schools for Middle School South. Table 1 provides a summary of the projections
completed for the individual schools by projection model.
TABLE 1
2011-12 School Projections Summary
Community Unit School District 95
Isaac Fox
May Whitney
Sarah Adams
Seth Paine
Spencer Loomis
MS North
MS South
Five-Year
562
480
421
412
489
732
686
Trend Model
Three-Year
Last Year
556
550
467
482
421
423
400
395
478
473
739
734
681
684
Kindergarten
560
477
423
409
486
732
686
The models provided for each school includes the 5 Year Trend, 3 Year Trend, Last Year Pattern and
Kindergarten Trend. The Baseline model is excluded from the individual school projections. The
enrollment history used to generate the grade progression ratios is enrollment based on redistricting
the elementary schools with new boundary configurations.
When considering the following projections, it is important to remember that projections made for
smaller units of geography, such as elementary attendance areas, are less reliable than those
projections made for the district as a whole. Keeping this in mind, these projections do serve as a
reasonable guide for projecting the future trend and magnitude of enrollment in the individual schools
of the Community Unit School District 95.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
28
Elementary School Enrollment Histories
Figure 1-A shows actual enrollment history for the elementary schools in Community Unit School
District 95. All elementary school enrollments have fluctuated considerable over the last ten years due
to the opening of Spencer Loomis and redistricting.
Elementary Schools
Figure 1-A
Actual Student Enrollment
900
800
Students
700
600
500
400
300
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
Issac Fox
2002/03
2003/04
May Whitney
2004/05
2005/06
Sarah Adams
2006/07
2007/08
Seth Paine
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Spencer Loomis
In order to provide more realistic projections two years ago the district determined the number of
students that would be in each school if redistricting had occurred in 2005-2006. These same
enrollment numbers determined two years ago will be used to project future students as well as the
last two years of actual enrollment after redistricting occurred. Figure 1-B shows the elementary school
enrollment that will be used to project elementary school enrollment.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
29
Elementary Schools
Figure 1-B
"Redistricted" Student Enrollment
800
700
Students
600
500
400
300
200
2005/06
2006/07
Isaac Fox
May Whitney
2007/08
Sarah Adams
2008/09
Seth Paine
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
2009/10
2010/11
Spencer Loomis
30
Isaac Fox Elementary School
Enrollment History
The enrollment history for Isaac Fox Elementary School has decreased by 57 students over the last ten
years, or a 9.4% decrease. The enrollment history is shown in Table 2 and the change in enrollment is
shown in Table 3.
TABLE 2
Student Enrollment
Isaac Fox Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
07-08
08-09
05-06
06-07
K
1
2
3
4
5
77
113
96
107
101
114
110
92
112
103
106
102
78
114
95
111
104
111
TOTAL
608
625
613
09-10
10-11
77
76
119
95
117
107
84
101
80
112
88
126
84
92
98
78
111
88
591
591
551
TABLE 3
Student Enrollment Changes
Isaac Fox Elementary
GRADE
Absolute
Change
'05 to '10
Percent
Change
'05 to '10
Ave Annual
% Change
'05 to '10
K
1
2
3
4
5
7
-21
2
-29
10
-26
9.1
-18.6
2.1
-27.1
9.9
-22.8
1.8
-3.7
0.4
-5.4
2.0
-4.6
TOTAL
-57
-9.4
-1.9
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
31
Kindergarten Enrollment
Figure 2 shows kindergarten enrollment trends for Isaac Fox Elementary School. The long term
trend shows slightly declining kindergarten enrollment while the recent trend shows an increase in
kindergarten enrollment over the past three years.
Figure 2
Isaac Fox Elementary
Kindergarten Enrollment Trends
200
Projected
180
160
140
Students
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Long Term Trend
Recent Trend
Actual
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
32
Grade Progression Ratios
To review, grade progression ratios depict enrollment changes, year to year and grade to grade,
measuring the effects of in- and out-migration and the transfer of students between private and public
schools. Table 4 shows the grade progression ratios for Isaac Fox Elementary School.
TABLE 4
Grade Progression Ratios
Isaac Fox Elementary
YEAR
CHANGES
B:K
K:1
1:2
2:3
3:4
4:5
05-06/06-07
06-07/07-08
07-08/08-09
08-09/09-10
09-10/10-11
0.286
0.199
0.191
0.213
0.221
1.195
1.036
0.974
1.312
1.095
0.991
1.033
1.044
1.053
0.970
1.073
0.991
1.000
0.941
0.975
0.991
1.010
1.054
0.926
0.991
1.010
1.047
1.029
1.077
1.000
5 Year Trend
0.222
1.122
1.018
0.996
0.994
1.033
3 Year Trend
0.208
1.127
1.022
0.972
0.990
1.035
Last Year Pattern
0.221
1.095
0.970
0.975
0.991
1.000
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
33
Last 5 Year Trend Projection
The 5 Year Trend model (Table 5) uses the progression ratios from the last five years to project
what future enrollments would look like if more recent patterns were representative of future trends.
This model projects that enrollment will decrease from 551 students in 2010 to 543 students in 2015.
TABLE 5
5 Year Trend Projection Model
Isaac Fox Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
15-16
16-17
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
K
1
2
3
4
5
85
94
94
98
78
115
85
95
96
93
97
80
78
96
97
96
93
100
77
87
98
96
95
96
77
86
89
97
96
98
TOTAL
562
547
559
549
543
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
74
86
88
89
97
99
72
84
88
88
88
100
70
81
85
87
87
91
68
78
83
85
87
90
65
76
80
82
84
90
533
519
501
490
477
3 Year Trend Projection
The 3 Year Trend model (Table 6) uses the grade progression ratios from the last three years to
project future enrollment. Isaac Fox Elementary School enrollment is projected to decrease from 551
students in 2010 to 512 students in 2015.
TABLE 6
3 Year Trend Projection Model
Isaac Fox Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
15-16
16-17
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
K
1
2
3
4
5
80
95
94
95
77
115
80
90
97
91
94
80
73
90
92
94
91
98
72
82
92
89
93
94
72
81
84
90
88
96
TOTAL
556
532
537
523
512
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
70
81
83
82
89
91
68
79
83
81
81
92
66
76
81
81
80
84
63
74
78
78
80
83
61
71
76
76
78
83
496
483
467
456
444
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
34
Last Year Pattern Projection
The Last Year Pattern model (Table 7) uses grade progression ratios from 2009-10 to 2010-11 to
project future enrollment. Isaac Fox Elementary School enrollment is projected to decrease from 551
students in 2010 to 504 students in 2015.
TABLE 7
Last Year Pattern Projection Model
Isaac Fox Elementary
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
K
1
2
3
4
5
84
92
89
96
77
111
85
92
89
87
95
77
78
93
90
87
86
95
77
85
90
87
86
86
77
84
82
88
87
86
74
84
81
80
87
87
72
81
81
79
80
87
70
79
79
79
79
80
67
76
76
77
79
79
65
74
74
75
76
79
TOTAL
550
526
528
512
504
494
481
465
454
442
Kindergarten Trend Projection
The Kindergarten Trend model (Table 8) analyzes trends in kindergarten enrollment and assumes
that the long term kindergarten trends will be similar in the future as they have been in the past. This
model projects that enrollment will decrease from 551 students in 2010 to 538 students in 2015.
TABLE 8
Kindergarten Trend Projection Model
Isaac Fox Elementary
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
K
1
2
3
4
5
82
94
94
98
78
115
81
92
96
93
97
80
79
90
94
96
93
100
78
89
92
93
95
96
77
88
91
92
93
98
76
86
89
90
91
96
74
85
88
89
90
94
73
83
86
87
88
93
72
82
85
86
87
91
71
81
83
85
86
90
TOTAL
560
539
552
543
538
528
520
511
503
495
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
35
Comparison of Projection Models
Figure 3 and Table 9 compare the different enrollment projection models for Isaac Fox Elementary
School. Enrollment projections for five years into the future range from a low of 504 students to a high
of 543 students. The 5 Year Trend model projects less of a decrease in enrollment than the other
models over the next five years while the Last Year Pattern model projects the greatest decline.
Isaac Fox Elementary
Figure 3
K-5 Student Enrollment and Projections
800
700
600
Students
500
400
300
200
100
0
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Last Year Pattern
Kindergarten Trend
Actual
TABLE 9
Summary of K-5 Enrollment Projections
Isaac Fox Elementary
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Last Year Pattern
Kindergarten Trend
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
562
556
550
560
547
532
526
539
559
537
528
552
549
523
512
543
543
512
504
538
533
496
494
528
519
483
481
520
501
467
465
511
490
456
454
503
477
444
442
495
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
36
May Whitney Elementary School
Enrollment History
The enrollment history for May Whitney Elementary School has decreased by 102 students over the
last ten years, or a 17% decrease. The enrollment history is shown in Table 10 and the change in
enrollment is shown in Table 11.
TABLE 10
Student Enrollment
May Whitney Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
07-08
08-09
05-06
06-07
K
1
2
3
4
5
95
100
88
99
115
99
70
108
103
91
98
117
73
82
117
116
96
107
TOTAL
596
587
591
09-10
10-11
82
76
90
113
113
90
64
95
74
87
95
96
73
68
94
79
86
94
564
511
494
TABLE 11
Student Enrollment Changes
May Whitney Elementary
GRADE
Absolute
Change
'05 to '10
Percent
Change
'05 to '10
Ave Annual
% Change
'05 to '10
K
1
2
3
4
5
-22
-32
6
-20
-29
-5
-23.2
-32.0
6.8
-20.2
-25.2
-5.1
-4.6
-6.4
1.4
-4.0
-5.0
-1.0
TOTAL
-102
-17.1
-3.4
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
37
Kindergarten Enrollment
Figure 4 shows kindergarten enrollment trends for May Whitney Elementary School. The long term
and recent trends show declining kindergarten enrollment.
Figure 4
May Whitney Elementary
Kindergarten Enrollment Trends
140
Projected
120
Students
100
80
60
40
20
0
Long Term Trend
Recent Trend
Actual
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
38
Grade Progression Ratios
To review, grade progression ratios depict enrollment changes, year to year and grade to grade,
measuring the effects of in- and out-migration and the transfer of students between private and public
schools. Table 12 shows the grade progression ratios for May Whitney Elementary School.
TABLE 12
Grade Progression Ratios
May Whitney Elementary
YEAR
CHANGES
B:K
K:1
1:2
2:3
3:4
4:5
05-06/06-07
06-07/07-08
07-08/08-09
08-09/09-10
09-10/10-11
0.182
0.187
0.204
0.162
0.192
1.137
1.171
1.041
1.159
1.063
1.030
1.083
1.098
0.974
0.989
1.034
1.126
0.966
0.967
1.068
0.990
1.055
0.974
0.841
0.989
1.017
1.092
0.938
0.850
0.989
5 Year Trend
0.185
1.114
1.035
1.032
0.970
0.977
3 Year Trend
0.186
1.087
1.020
1.000
0.934
0.926
Last Year Pattern
0.192
1.063
0.989
1.068
0.989
0.989
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
39
Last 5 Year Trend Projection
The 5 Year Trend model (Table 13) uses the progression ratios from the last five years to project
what future enrollments would look like if more recent patterns were representative of future trends.
This model projects that enrollment will decrease from 494 students in 2010 to 459 students in 2015.
TABLE 13
5 Year Trend Projection Model
May Whitney Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
15-16
16-17
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
K
1
2
3
4
5
71
81
70
97
77
84
71
79
84
73
94
75
65
79
81
87
70
92
64
72
82
84
84
69
64
71
75
85
82
82
TOTAL
480
476
475
456
459
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
62
71
74
77
82
80
60
69
74
76
75
80
58
67
72
76
74
73
56
65
69
74
74
72
54
63
67
72
72
72
447
435
420
411
400
3 Year Trend Projection
The 3 Year Trend model (Table 14) uses the grade progression ratios from the last three years to
project future enrollment. May Whitney Elementary School enrollment is projected to decrease from
494 students in 2010 to 430 students in 2015.
TABLE 14
3 Year Trend Projection Model
May Whitney Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
15-16
16-17
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
K
1
2
3
4
5
71
79
69
94
74
80
72
77
81
69
88
68
65
78
79
81
65
81
64
71
79
79
76
60
64
70
72
79
74
70
TOTAL
467
455
449
429
430
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
62
70
71
72
74
68
60
68
71
71
68
69
59
66
69
71
67
63
57
64
67
69
67
62
55
62
65
67
65
62
418
407
394
385
375
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
40
Last Year Pattern Projection
The Last Year Pattern model (Table 15) uses grade progression ratios from 2009-10 to 2010-11 to
project future enrollment. May Whitney Elementary School enrollment is projected to decrease from
494 students in 2010 to 453 students in 2015.
TABLE 15
Last Year Pattern Projection Model
May Whitney Elementary
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
K
1
2
3
4
5
73
78
67
100
78
85
74
78
77
72
99
77
67
79
77
82
71
98
67
72
78
82
81
70
67
71
71
83
81
80
65
71
70
76
82
81
63
69
70
75
75
81
61
66
68
75
74
74
59
64
66
72
74
73
57
62
64
70
72
73
TOTAL
482
477
474
450
453
443
432
417
408
397
Kindergarten Trend Projection
The Kindergarten Trend model (Table 16) analyzes trends in kindergarten enrollment and assumes
that the long term kindergarten trends will be similar in the future as they have been in the past. This
model projects that enrollment will decrease from 494 students in 2010 to 425 students in 2015.
TABLE 16
Kindergarten Trend Projection Model
May Whitney Elementary
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
K
1
2
3
4
5
68
81
70
97
77
84
64
75
84
73
94
75
61
72
78
87
70
92
57
68
74
81
84
69
54
64
70
76
78
82
51
60
66
72
74
76
47
56
62
68
70
72
44
53
58
64
66
69
40
49
54
60
62
65
37
45
51
56
58
61
TOTAL
477
465
460
433
425
400
377
354
331
308
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
41
Comparison of Projection Models
Figure 5 and Table 17 compare the different enrollment projection models for May Whitney
Elementary School. Enrollment projections for five years into the future range from a low of 425
students to a high of 459 students. The 5 Year Trend model projects less of a decrease in enrollment
than the other models over the next five years while the Kindergarten Trend model projects the
greatest decline.
May Whitney Elementary
Figure 5
K-5 Student Enrollment and Projections
800
700
600
Students
500
400
300
200
100
0
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Last Year Pattern
Kindergarten Trend
Actual
TABLE 17
Summary of K-5 Enrollment Projections
May Whitney Elementary
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Last Year Pattern
Kindergarten Trend
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
480
467
482
477
476
455
477
465
475
449
474
460
456
429
450
433
459
430
453
425
447
418
443
400
435
407
432
377
420
394
417
354
411
385
408
331
400
375
397
308
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
42
Sarah Adams Elementary School
Enrollment History
The enrollment history for Sarah Adams Elementary School has decreased by 15 students over the last
ten years, or a 3.3% decrease. The enrollment history is shown in Table 18 and the change in
enrollment is shown in Table 19.
TABLE 18
Student Enrollment
Sarah Adams Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
07-08
08-09
05-06
06-07
K
1
2
3
4
5
81
71
79
72
69
82
55
84
72
80
71
70
63
63
89
78
86
69
TOTAL
454
432
448
09-10
10-11
66
71
66
91
79
86
73
64
74
66
86
77
63
76
63
81
66
90
459
440
439
TABLE 19
Student Enrollment Changes
Sarah Adams Elementary
GRADE
Absolute
Change
'05 to '10
Percent
Change
'05 to '10
Ave Annual
% Change
'05 to '10
K
1
2
3
4
5
-18
5
-16
9
-3
8
-22.2
7.0
-20.3
12.5
-4.3
9.8
-4.4
1.4
-4.1
2.5
-0.9
2.0
TOTAL
-15
-3.3
-0.7
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
43
Kindergarten Enrollment
Figure 6 shows kindergarten enrollment trends for Sarah Adams Elementary School. The long term
trend shows slightly declining kindergarten enrollment while the recent trend shows an even greater
decrease in kindergarten enrollment over the past three years.
Figure 6
Sarah Adams Elementary
Kindergarten Enrollment Trends
140
Projected
120
Students
100
80
60
40
20
0
Long Term Trend
Recent Trend
Actual
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
44
Grade Progression Ratios
To review, grade progression ratios depict enrollment changes, year to year and grade to grade,
measuring the effects of in- and out-migration and the transfer of students between private and public
schools. Table 20 shows the grade progression ratios for Sarah Adams Elementary School.
TABLE 20
Grade Progression Ratios
Sarah Adams Elementary
YEAR
CHANGES
B:K
K:1
1:2
2:3
3:4
4:5
05-06/06-07
06-07/07-08
07-08/08-09
08-09/09-10
09-10/10-11
0.143
0.161
0.164
0.185
0.166
1.037
1.145
1.127
0.970
1.041
1.014
1.060
1.048
1.042
0.984
1.013
1.083
1.022
1.000
1.095
0.986
1.075
1.013
0.945
1.000
1.014
0.972
1.000
0.975
1.047
5 Year Trend
0.164
1.064
1.030
1.043
1.004
1.002
3 Year Trend
0.172
1.046
1.025
1.039
0.986
1.007
Last Year Pattern
0.166
1.041
0.984
1.095
1.000
1.047
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
45
Last 5 Year Trend Projection
The 5 Year Trend model (Table 21) uses the progression ratios from the last five years to project
what future enrollments would look like if more recent patterns were representative of future trends.
This model projects that enrollment will decrease from 439 students in 2010 to 396 students in 2015.
TABLE 21
5 Year Trend Projection Model
Sarah Adams Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
15-16
16-17
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
K
1
2
3
4
5
62
67
78
66
81
66
63
66
69
82
66
81
57
67
68
72
82
66
57
61
69
71
72
82
57
60
63
72
72
72
TOTAL
421
427
413
412
396
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
55
60
62
65
72
72
53
58
62
65
66
72
52
57
60
65
65
66
50
55
58
63
65
65
48
53
56
61
63
65
387
376
364
356
346
3 Year Trend Projection
The 3 Year Trend model (Table 22) uses the grade progression ratios from the last three years to
project future enrollment. Sarah Adams Elementary School enrollment is projected to decrease from
439 students in 2010 to 401 students in 2015.
TABLE 22
3 Year Trend Projection Model
Sarah Adams Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
15-16
16-17
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
K
1
2
3
4
5
65
66
78
65
80
66
66
68
68
81
65
80
60
69
70
70
80
65
59
63
71
73
69
80
59
62
64
73
72
70
TOTAL
421
428
414
415
401
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
58
62
64
67
72
72
56
60
64
66
66
73
54
58
62
66
65
66
52
56
60
64
65
66
50
55
58
62
63
66
395
385
372
363
354
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
46
Last Year Pattern Projection
The Last Year Pattern model (Table 23) uses grade progression ratios from 2009-10 to 2010-11 to
project future enrollment. Sarah Adams Elementary School enrollment is projected to decrease from
439 students in 2010 to 393 students in 2015.
TABLE 23
Last Year Pattern Projection Model
Sarah Adams Elementary
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
K
1
2
3
4
5
63
66
75
69
81
69
64
66
65
82
69
85
58
66
65
71
82
72
57
61
65
71
71
86
57
60
60
72
71
74
56
60
59
65
72
74
54
58
59
64
65
75
52
56
57
64
64
68
51
54
55
62
64
67
49
53
54
61
62
67
TOTAL
423
430
414
411
393
385
375
363
354
345
Kindergarten Trend Projection
The Kindergarten Trend model (Table 24) analyzes trends in kindergarten enrollment and assumes
that the long term kindergarten trends will be similar in the future as they have been in the past. This
model projects that enrollment will decrease from 439 students in 2010 to 414 students in 2015.
TABLE 24
Kindergarten Trend Projection Model
Sarah Adams Elementary
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
K
1
2
3
4
5
64
67
78
66
81
66
64
69
69
82
66
81
63
68
71
72
82
66
62
67
70
74
72
82
61
66
69
73
74
72
60
65
68
71
73
74
59
64
67
70
72
73
58
63
65
69
71
72
57
62
64
68
70
71
56
61
63
67
69
70
TOTAL
423
430
421
426
414
410
404
398
392
385
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
47
Comparison of Projection Models
Figure 7 and Table 25 compare the different enrollment projection models for Sarah Adams
Elementary School. Enrollment projections for five years into the future range from a low of 393
students to a high of 414 students. The Kindergarten Trend model projects less of a decrease in
enrollment than the other models over the next five years while the Last Year Pattern model projects
the greatest decline.
Sarah Adams Elementary
Figure 7
K-5 Student Enrollment and Projections
600
500
Students
400
300
200
100
0
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Last Year Pattern
Kindergarten Trend
Actual
TABLE 25
Summary of K-5 Enrollment Projections
Sarah Adams Elementary
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Last Year Pattern
Kindergarten Trend
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
421
421
423
423
427
428
430
430
413
414
414
421
412
415
411
426
396
401
393
414
387
395
385
410
376
385
375
404
364
372
363
398
356
363
354
392
346
354
345
385
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
48
Seth Paine Elementary School
Enrollment History
The enrollment history for Seth Paine Elementary School has decreased by 20 students over the last
ten years, or a 4.5% decrease. The enrollment history is shown in Table 26 and the change in
enrollment is shown in Table 27.
TABLE 26
Student Enrollment
Seth Paine Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
07-08
08-09
05-06
06-07
K
1
2
3
4
5
64
86
68
71
72
86
60
70
82
65
73
75
88
69
76
89
66
86
TOTAL
447
425
474
09-10
10-11
64
85
74
75
85
68
61
65
94
65
86
73
56
65
63
93
63
87
451
444
427
TABLE 27
Student Enrollment Changes
Seth Paine Elementary
GRADE
Absolute
Change
'05 to '10
Percent
Change
'05 to '10
Ave Annual
% Change
'05 to '10
K
1
2
3
4
5
-8
-21
-5
22
-9
1
-12.5
-24.4
-7.4
31.0
-12.5
1.2
-2.5
-4.9
-1.5
6.2
-2.5
0.2
TOTAL
-20
-4.5
-0.9
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
49
Kindergarten Enrollment
Figure 8 shows kindergarten enrollment trends for Seth Paine Elementary School. The long term
trend shows slightly declining kindergarten enrollment while the recent trend shows a more dramatic
decrease in kindergarten enrollment over the past three years.
Figure 8
Seth Paine Elementary
Kindergarten Enrollment Trends
140
Projected
120
Students
100
80
60
40
20
0
Long Term Trend
Recent Trend
Actual
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
50
Grade Progression Ratios
To review, grade progression ratios depict enrollment changes, year to year and grade to grade,
measuring the effects of in- and out-migration and the transfer of students between private and public
schools. Table 28 shows the grade progression ratios for Seth Paine Elementary School.
TABLE 28
Grade Progression Ratios
Seth Paine Elementary
YEAR
CHANGES
B:K
K:1
1:2
2:3
3:4
4:5
05-06/06-07
06-07/07-08
07-08/08-09
08-09/09-10
09-10/10-11
0.156
0.225
0.159
0.155
0.148
1.094
1.150
0.966
1.016
1.066
0.953
1.086
1.072
1.106
0.969
0.956
1.085
0.987
0.878
0.989
1.028
1.015
0.955
1.147
0.969
1.042
1.178
1.030
0.859
1.012
5 Year Trend
0.168
1.058
1.037
0.979
1.023
1.024
3 Year Trend
0.154
1.016
1.049
0.952
1.024
0.967
Last Year Pattern
0.148
1.066
0.969
0.989
0.969
1.012
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
51
Last 5 Year Trend Projection
The 5 Year Trend model (Table 29) uses the progression ratios from the last five years to project
what future enrollments would look like if more recent patterns were representative of future trends.
This model projects that enrollment will decrease from 427 students in 2010 to 388 students in 2015.
TABLE 29
5 Year Trend Projection Model
Seth Paine Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
15-16
16-17
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
K
1
2
3
4
5
64
59
67
62
95
65
65
68
61
66
63
97
59
68
70
60
68
65
58
62
71
69
62
69
58
62
65
70
71
63
TOTAL
412
421
390
391
388
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
56
62
64
63
71
72
55
60
64
63
65
73
53
58
62
63
64
66
51
56
60
61
64
66
49
54
58
59
62
66
389
379
366
358
348
3 Year Trend Projection
The 3 Year Trend model (Table 30) uses the grade progression ratios from the last three years to
project future enrollment. Seth Paine Elementary School enrollment is projected to decrease from 427
students in 2010 to 341 students in 2015.
TABLE 30
3 Year Trend Projection Model
Seth Paine Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
15-16
16-17
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
K
1
2
3
4
5
59
57
68
60
95
61
59
60
60
65
61
92
54
60
62
57
66
59
53
55
63
59
58
64
53
54
57
60
61
56
TOTAL
400
397
359
353
341
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
52
54
57
55
61
59
50
52
57
54
56
59
48
51
55
54
55
54
47
49
53
52
55
53
45
47
52
51
53
53
337
328
317
310
302
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
52
Last Year Pattern Projection
The Last Year Pattern model (Table 31) uses grade progression ratios from 2009-10 to 2010-11 to
project future enrollment. Seth Paine Elementary School enrollment is projected to decrease from 427
students in 2010 to 329 students in 2015.
TABLE 31
Last Year Pattern Projection Model
Seth Paine Elementary
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
K
1
2
3
4
5
56
60
63
62
90
64
57
60
58
62
60
91
52
60
58
57
60
61
51
55
59
58
55
61
51
54
53
58
56
56
49
54
53
53
56
56
48
53
53
52
51
57
46
51
51
52
51
52
45
49
50
51
51
51
43
48
48
49
49
51
TOTAL
395
388
349
339
329
322
314
303
296
288
Kindergarten Trend Projection
The Kindergarten Trend model (Table 32) analyzes trends in kindergarten enrollment and assumes
that the long term kindergarten trends will be similar in the future as they have been in the past. This
model projects that enrollment will decrease from 427 students in 2010 to 371 students in 2015.
TABLE 32
Kindergarten Trend Projection Model
Seth Paine Elementary
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
K
1
2
3
4
5
61
59
67
62
95
65
59
65
61
66
63
97
58
63
67
60
68
65
56
61
65
66
62
69
54
59
63
64
67
63
52
57
61
62
65
69
51
55
59
60
63
67
49
54
58
58
61
65
47
52
56
56
60
63
45
50
54
54
58
61
TOTAL
409
412
380
379
371
367
356
345
333
322
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
53
Comparison of Projection Models
Figure 9 and Table 33 compare the different enrollment projection models for Seth Paine
Elementary School. Enrollment projections for five years into the future range from a low of 329
students to a high of 388 students. The 5 Year Trend model projects less of a decrease in enrollment
than the other models over the next five years while the Last Year Pattern model projects the greatest
decline.
Seth Paine Elementary
Figure 9
K-5 Student Enrollment and Projections
800
700
600
Students
500
400
300
200
100
0
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Last Year Pattern
Kindergarten Trend
Actual
TABLE 33
Summary of K-5 Enrollment Projections
Seth Paine Elementary
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Last Year Pattern
Kindergarten Trend
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
412
400
395
409
421
397
388
412
390
359
349
380
391
353
339
379
388
341
329
371
389
337
322
367
379
328
314
356
366
317
303
345
358
310
296
333
348
302
288
322
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
54
Spencer Loomis Elementary School
Enrollment History
The enrollment history for Spencer Loomis Elementary School has decreased by 66 students over the
last ten years, or an 11.5% decrease. The enrollment history is shown in Table 34 and the change in
enrollment is shown in Table 35.
TABLE 34
Student Enrollment
Spencer Loomis Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
07-08
08-09
05-06
06-07
K
1
2
3
4
5
79
86
83
84
119
121
64
94
97
88
91
127
70
77
106
107
94
99
TOTAL
572
561
553
09-10
10-11
67
68
85
107
107
95
69
85
74
90
109
109
60
79
87
76
94
110
529
536
506
TABLE 35
Student Enrollment Changes
Spencer Loomis Elementary
GRADE
Absolute
Change
'05 to '10
Percent
Change
'05 to '10
Ave Annual
% Change
'05 to '10
K
1
2
3
4
5
-19
-7
4
-8
-25
-11
-24.1
-8.1
4.8
-9.5
-21.0
-9.1
-4.8
-1.6
1.0
-1.9
-4.2
-1.8
TOTAL
-66
-11.5
-2.3
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
55
Kindergarten Enrollment
Figure 10 shows kindergarten enrollment trends for Spencer Loomis Elementary School. The long
term and recent trends show declining kindergarten enrollment.
Figure 10
Spencer Loomis Elementary
Kindergarten Enrollment Trends
120
Projected
100
Students
80
60
40
20
0
Long Term Trend
Recent Trend
Actual
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
56
Grade Progression Ratios
To review, grade progression ratios depict enrollment changes, year to year and grade to grade,
measuring the effects of in- and out-migration and the transfer of students between private and public
schools. Table 36 shows the grade progression ratios for Spencer Loomis Elementary School.
TABLE 36
Grade Progression Ratios
Spencer Loomis Elementary
YEAR
CHANGES
B:K
K:1
1:2
2:3
3:4
4:5
05-06/06-07
06-07/07-08
07-08/08-09
08-09/09-10
09-10/10-11
0.167
0.179
0.166
0.175
0.158
1.190
1.203
0.971
1.269
1.145
1.128
1.128
1.104
1.088
1.024
1.060
1.103
1.009
1.059
1.027
1.083
1.068
1.000
1.019
1.044
1.067
1.088
1.011
1.019
1.009
5 Year Trend
0.169
1.156
1.094
1.052
1.043
1.039
3 Year Trend
0.166
1.128
1.072
1.032
1.021
1.013
Last Year Pattern
0.158
1.145
1.024
1.027
1.044
1.009
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
57
Last 5 Year Trend Projection
The 5 Year Trend model (Table 37) uses the progression ratios from the last five years to project
what future enrollments would look like if more recent patterns were representative of future trends.
This model projects that enrollment will decrease from 506 students in 2010 to 463 students in 2015.
TABLE 37
5 Year Trend Projection Model
Spencer Loomis Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
15-16
16-17
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
K
1
2
3
4
5
64
69
86
91
79
98
65
74
76
91
95
82
59
75
81
80
95
99
58
68
82
86
83
98
58
68
75
86
89
86
TOTAL
489
484
489
476
463
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
57
67
74
79
90
93
55
65
74
78
82
94
53
63
72
78
81
85
51
61
69
75
81
84
50
59
67
73
79
84
460
448
432
423
412
3 Year Trend Projection
The 3 Year Trend model (Table 38) uses the grade progression ratios from the last three years to
project future enrollment. Spencer Loomis Elementary School enrollment is projected to decrease from
506 students in 2010 to 431 students in 2015.
TABLE 38
3 Year Trend Projection Model
Spencer Loomis Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
15-16
16-17
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
K
1
2
3
4
5
63
68
85
90
78
95
64
72
73
87
92
79
58
72
77
75
89
93
58
66
77
79
76
90
58
65
70
80
81
77
TOTAL
478
466
464
447
431
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
56
65
70
73
82
82
54
63
70
72
74
83
52
61
67
72
73
75
51
59
65
70
73
74
49
57
63
67
71
74
427
415
401
392
382
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
58
Last Year Pattern Projection
The Last Year Pattern model (Table 39) uses grade progression ratios from 2009-10 to 2010-11 to
project future enrollment. Spencer Loomis Elementary School enrollment is projected to decrease from
506 students in 2010 to 407 students in 2015.
TABLE 39
Last Year Pattern Projection Model
Spencer Loomis Elementary
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
K
1
2
3
4
5
60
69
81
89
79
95
61
69
70
83
93
80
55
70
71
72
87
94
55
63
71
73
75
88
55
63
65
73
76
76
53
63
64
67
76
77
51
61
64
66
70
77
50
59
62
66
69
70
48
57
60
64
69
69
46
55
58
62
67
69
TOTAL
473
457
449
425
407
399
389
376
367
358
Kindergarten Trend Projection
The Kindergarten Trend model (Table 40) analyzes trends in kindergarten enrollment and assumes
that the long term kindergarten trends will be similar in the future as they have been in the past. This
model projects that enrollment will decrease from 506 students in 2010 to 442 students in 2015.
TABLE 40
Kindergarten Trend Projection Model
Spencer Loomis Elementary
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
K
1
2
3
4
5
62
69
86
91
79
98
60
72
76
91
95
82
57
69
79
80
95
99
55
66
76
83
83
98
53
64
73
80
86
86
50
61
70
76
83
90
48
58
67
73
80
86
46
55
64
70
76
83
43
53
61
67
73
79
41
50
58
64
70
76
TOTAL
486
476
479
462
442
430
412
394
376
358
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
59
Comparison of Projection Models
Figure 11 and Table 41 compare the different enrollment projection models for Spencer Loomis
Elementary School. Enrollment projections for five years into the future range from a low of 407
students to a high of 463 students. The 5 Year Trend model projects less of a decrease in enrollment
than the other models over the next five years while the Last Year Pattern model projects the greatest
decline.
Spencer Loomis Elementary
Figure 11
K-5 Student Enrollment and Projections
800
700
600
Students
500
400
300
200
100
0
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Last Year Pattern
Kindergarten Trend
Actual
TABLE 41
Summary of K-5 Enrollment Projections
Spencer Loomis Elementary
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Last Year Pattern
Kindergarten Trend
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
489
478
473
486
484
466
457
476
489
464
449
479
476
447
425
462
463
431
407
442
460
427
399
430
448
415
389
412
432
401
376
394
423
392
367
376
412
382
358
358
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
60
Middle School Enrollment Histories
Figure 12 provides the last ten years of enrollment history for the middle schools, North and South,
in the Community Unit School District 95.
Middle Schools
Figure 12
6-8 Student Enrollment
1,000
900
800
Students
700
600
500
400
300
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
Middle School North
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Middel School South
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
61
Middle School North
Enrollment History
The enrollment history for Middle School North has decreased by 18 students over the last ten
years, or a 2.5% decrease. The enrollment history and change in enrollment are shown in Tables 42
and 43.
TABLE 42
Student Enrollment
Middle School North
SCHOOL YEAR
05-06
06-07
01-02
02-03
03-04
04-05
6
7
8
252
251
229
227
256
255
245
227
262
246
258
239
253
262
267
TOTAL
732
738
734
743
782
07-08
08-09
09-10
10-11
260
258
272
273
267
256
237
280
269
225
240
289
244
226
244
790
796
786
754
714
TABLE 43
Student Enrollment Changes
Middle School North
ABSOLUTE CHANGE
PERCENT CHANGE
AVERAGE ANNUAL
PERCENT CHANGE
'01 to '10 '01 to '05 '06 to '10
GRADE
'01 to '10
'01 to '05
'06 to '10
'01 to '10
'01 to '05
'06 to '10
6
7
8
-8
-25
15
1
11
38
-16
-32
-28
-3.2
-10.0
6.6
0.4
4.4
16.6
-6.2
-12.4
-10.3
-0.4
-1.1
0.7
0.1
1.1
4.1
-1.5
-3.1
-2.6
TOTAL
-18
50
-76
-2.5
6.8
-9.6
-0.3
1.7
-2.4
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
62
Grade Progression Ratios
Table 44 shows the grade progression ratios for Middle School North.
TABLE 44
Grade Progression Ratios
Middle School North
YEAR
CHANGES
5:6
6:7
7:8
01-02/02-03
02-03/03-04
03-04/04-05
04-05/05-06
05-06/06-07
06-07/07-08
07-08/08-09
08-09/09-10
09-10/10-11
1.544
1.419
1.287
1.301
1.022
1.057
1.003
1.091
1.070
1.016
1.000
1.053
1.065
1.020
1.027
1.026
1.013
1.004
1.016
1.023
1.053
1.035
1.038
0.992
1.007
1.032
1.017
5 Year Trend
1.049
1.018
1.017
3 Year Trend
1.080
1.009
1.024
Last Year Pattern
1.070
1.004
1.017
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
63
Last 5 Year Trend Projection
The 5 Year Trend model (Table 45) uses the progression ratios from the last five years to project
what future enrollments would look like if more recent patterns were representative of future trends.
This model projects that enrollment will decrease from 714 students in 2010 to 666 students in 2015.
TABLE 45
5 Year Trend Projection Model
Middle School North
SCHOOL YEAR
15-16
16-17
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
6
7
8
254
248
230
212
258
253
226
216
263
218
230
220
210
222
234
TOTAL
732
723
705
668
666
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
198
214
226
213
202
218
215
217
205
196
219
221
193
199
223
638
633
637
635
615
3 Year Trend Projection
The 3 Year Trend model (Table 46) uses the grade progression ratios from the last three years to
project future enrollment. Spencer Loomis Elementary School enrollment is projected to decrease from
714 students in 2010 to 634 students in 2015.
TABLE 46
3 Year Trend Projection Model
Middle School North
SCHOOL YEAR
15-16
16-17
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
6
7
8
262
246
232
210
264
252
220
212
270
207
222
217
198
208
227
TOTAL
739
726
702
645
634
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
181
200
213
187
182
205
189
189
187
172
190
194
170
173
195
594
574
565
556
539
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
64
Last Year Pattern Projection
The Last Year Pattern model (Table 47) uses grade progression ratios from 2009-10 to 2010-11 to
project future enrollment. Spencer Loomis Elementary School enrollment is projected to decrease from
714 students in 2010 to 640 students in 2015.
TABLE 47
Last Year Pattern Projection Model
Middle School North
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
6
7
8
259
245
230
213
260
249
223
214
265
217
224
218
195
217
228
183
196
221
184
183
199
185
184
186
169
186
187
167
169
189
TOTAL
734
723
702
658
640
600
566
556
542
525
Kindergarten Trend Projection
The Kindergarten Trend model (Table 48) analyzes trends in kindergarten enrollment and assumes
that the long term kindergarten trends will be similar in the future as they have been in the past. This
model projects that enrollment will decrease from 714 students in 2010 to 666 students in 2015.
TABLE 48
Kindergarten Trend Projection Model
Middle School North
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
6
7
8
254
248
230
212
258
253
226
216
263
218
230
220
210
222
234
198
214
226
205
202
218
197
208
205
189
201
212
182
193
204
TOTAL
732
723
705
668
666
638
624
611
602
579
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
65
Comparison of Projection Models
Figure 13 and Table 49 compare the different enrollment projection models for Middle School
North. Enrollment projections for five years into the future range from a low of 634 students to a high
of 666 students. All models project slight increases in enrollment over the next two years followed by a
decline.
Middle School North
Figure 13
6-8 Student Enrollment and Projections
1,000
900
800
700
Students
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Last Year Pattern
Kindergarten Trend
Actual
TABLE 49
Summary of 6-8 Enrollment Projections
Middle School North
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Last Year Pattern
Kindergarten Trend
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
732
739
734
732
723
726
723
723
705
702
702
705
668
645
658
668
666
634
640
666
638
594
600
638
633
574
566
624
637
565
556
611
635
556
542
602
615
539
525
579
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
66
Middle School South
Enrollment History
The enrollment history for Middle School South has decreased by 187 students over the last ten
years, or a 21.4% decrease. The enrollment history and change in enrollment are shown in Tables 50
and 51.
TABLE 50
Student Enrollment
Middle School South
SCHOOL YEAR
05-06
06-07
01-02
02-03
03-04
04-05
6
7
8
323
274
276
280
330
280
299
278
321
295
302
279
256
295
293
TOTAL
873
890
898
876
844
07-08
08-09
09-10
10-11
250
254
299
236
247
250
223
235
242
225
220
239
243
225
218
803
733
700
684
686
TABLE 51
Student Enrollment Changes
Middle School South
ABSOLUTE CHANGE
PERCENT CHANGE
AVERAGE ANNUAL
PERCENT CHANGE
'01 to '10 '01 to '05 '06 to '10
GRADE
'01 to '10
'01 to '05
'06 to '10
'01 to '10
'01 to '05
'06 to '10
6
7
8
-80
-49
-58
-67
21
17
-7
-29
-81
-24.8
-17.9
-21.0
-20.7
7.7
6.2
-2.8
-11.4
-27.1
-2.8
-2.0
-2.3
-5.2
1.9
1.5
-0.7
-2.9
-6.8
TOTAL
-187
-29
-117
-21.4
-3.3
-14.6
-2.4
-0.8
-3.6
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
67
Grade Progression Ratios
Table 52 shows the grade progression ratios for Middle School South.
TABLE 52
Grade Progression Ratios
Middle School South
YEAR
CHANGES
5:6
6:7
7:8
01-02/02-03
02-03/03-04
03-04/04-05
04-05/05-06
05-06/06-07
06-07/07-08
07-08/08-09
08-09/09-10
09-10/10-11
1.212
1.127
1.215
1.210
1.010
1.014
0.946
0.938
0.961
1.022
0.993
1.010
1.000
0.992
0.988
0.996
0.987
1.000
1.022
0.973
1.004
0.970
1.014
0.984
0.980
1.017
0.991
5 Year Trend
0.974
0.992
0.997
3 Year Trend
0.948
0.994
0.996
Last Year Pattern
0.961
1.000
0.991
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
68
Last 5 Year Trend Projection
The 5 Year Trend model (Table 53) uses the progression ratios from the last five years to project
what future enrollments would look like if more recent patterns were representative of future trends.
This model projects that enrollment will decrease from 686 students in 2010 to 608 students in 2015.
TABLE 53
5 Year Trend Projection Model
Middle School South
SCHOOL YEAR
15-16
16-17
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
6
7
8
221
241
224
219
219
240
195
217
219
208
194
216
208
207
193
TOTAL
686
678
631
618
608
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
208
206
206
207
206
206
208
205
206
190
207
204
187
188
206
620
619
619
601
582
3 Year Trend Projection
The 3 Year Trend model (Table 54) uses the grade progression ratios from the last three years to
project future enrollment. Spencer Loomis Elementary School enrollment is projected to decrease from
686 students in 2010 to 572 students in 2015.
TABLE 54
3 Year Trend Projection Model
Middle School South
SCHOOL YEAR
15-16
16-17
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
6
7
8
215
242
224
211
214
241
186
210
213
194
185
209
195
193
184
TOTAL
681
666
609
588
572
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
192
194
192
189
191
193
190
188
190
173
189
187
171
172
188
578
573
568
549
532
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
69
Last Year Pattern Projection
The Last Year Pattern model (Table 55) uses grade progression ratios from 2009-10 to 2010-11 to
project future enrollment. Spencer Loomis Elementary School enrollment is projected to decrease from
686 students in 2010 to 602 students in 2015.
TABLE 55
Last Year Pattern Projection Model
Middle School South
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
6
7
8
218
243
223
216
218
241
194
216
216
209
194
214
200
209
193
194
200
207
195
194
198
197
195
192
179
197
193
177
179
195
TOTAL
684
674
626
617
602
602
587
584
569
551
Kindergarten Trend Projection
The Kindergarten Trend model (Table 56) analyzes trends in kindergarten enrollment and assumes
that the long term kindergarten trends will be similar in the future as they have been in the past. This
model projects that enrollment will decrease from 686 students in 2010 to 608 students in 2015.
TABLE 56
Kindergarten Trend Projection Model
Middle School South
GRADE
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
6
7
8
221
241
224
219
219
240
195
217
219
208
194
216
208
207
193
208
206
206
204
206
206
199
202
206
195
198
202
191
194
197
TOTAL
686
678
631
618
608
620
616
607
595
582
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
70
Comparison of Projection Models
Figure 14 and Table 57 compare the different enrollment projection models for Middle School
South. Enrollment projections for five years into the future range from a low of 572 students to a high
of 608 students. All models project a slight decrease in enrollment next two year followed by a more
significant decrease the next several years.
Middle School South
Figure 14
6-8 Student Enrollment and Projections
1,000
900
800
700
Students
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Last Year Pattern
Kindergarten Trend
Actual
TABLE 57
Summary of 6-8 Enrollment Projections
Middle School South
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Last Year Pattern
Kindergarten Trend
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
686
681
684
686
678
666
674
678
631
609
626
631
618
588
617
618
608
572
602
608
620
578
602
620
619
573
587
616
619
568
584
607
601
549
569
595
582
532
551
582
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
71
Conclusions
District-wide and individual school enrollment projections are based on models that incorporate
recent past and current demographic information as well as the district’s own enrollment data and
assumptions about future housing in the school district area. Because most of the students in the
district’s schools over the next few years have already been born or are already in school, and because
their grade progression from one year to another is highly predictable, the total district-level
projections should be viewed as having high accuracy over the next few years. After a few years, and
increasingly for the lower elementary grades, actual enrollment figures will likely deviate from these
projections by ever increasing amounts. The reason for this is that birth trends, in-migration of preschool age children, and transfers into the district are more difficult to predict and therefore this
makes meaningful incorporation into enrollment projections a challenge. As with nearly all types of
forecasts, accuracy in these enrollment projections decreases over time.
In sum, the information provided in this school enrollment projection report points to decreased
enrollment in the Community Unit School District 95 over the next decade. The Kindergarten and
Baseline models project less of a decrease in enrollment than the other three models. The Last Year
Pattern model projects the greatest decrease. If current levels of declining kindergarten enrollment
and lower birth trends continue into the future, then the district should expect decreases in enrollment
in the near term. All elementary schools will likely see some level of declining enrollment over the next
five years. The middle school grades will see slight increases for the next two years followed by
decreasing enrollment and the high school will experience enrollment decline.
Because the projections found in this report incorporate the consequences of migration to and
from the district, any significant and sustained interruption of current or recent past migration
patterns will erode these models’ accuracy from the initiation point of the new pattern. The various
projection models provide a realistic range of migration and transfer effects on the school district.
Enrollment should be closely monitored for the next few years, and compared with these projections,
to determine the trajectory of future patterns. This type of monitoring program might help the district
to determine which of the models seems to be the most realistic to use for planning purposes.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District 95
72