INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH WORKSHOP ON THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE Sponsored by Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) Government of Samoa National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) French Embassy in Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands Endorsed by the World Climate Research Programme on Climate Variability and Predictability International Pacific Implementation Panel PROGRAM Monday 23 August, 2010 Participants arrive 18.00-20.00 Icebreaker at Aggie Grey’s Hotel Day 1 – Tuesday 24 August, 2010 09.00 Welcome and opening Chair: Mulipola Ausetalia Titimaea, Assistant Chief Executive Officer; Meteorology Division, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MNRE) 09.00 Prayer Rev Elder Eteuati Pasia 09.10 Opening comments David Sheppard, SPREP 09.20 Opening comments Scott Power, PCCSP 09.25 Keynote address 09.45 Introduction to workshop and participants Taulealeausumai Laavasa Malua, Chief Executive Officer, MNRE Scott Power, PCCSP 10.00 Morning tea 10.30 Overview of South Pacific climate, and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) Chair: Matthieu Lengaigne, IRD Scribe: Scott Power 10.30 Overview of the SPCZ Jim Renwick, NIWA 11.00 Climate, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and SPCZ in Pacific island countries including impacts Pacific island representatives (i) Sunny Seuseu, Samoa Meteorology Division, and Dean Solofa, SPREP (ii) Arona Ngari, Cook Islands Meteorological Service (iii) Arieta Baleisolomone, Fiji Meteorological Service (iv) Lloyd Tahani, Solomon Islands Meteorological Service (v) Moleni Tu'uholoaki, Tonga Meteorological Service (vi) Hilia Vavae, Tuvalu Meteorological Service (vii) Salesa Kaniaha, Vanuatu Meteorological Service 12.10 Panel discussion 12.30 Lunch 13.30 Origin and variability of the SPCZ and tropical cyclones 13.30 Meso-scale simulations of tropical cyclones in the south Pacific: Interannual variability and oceanic response 14.00 SPCZ influence on southwest Pacific oceanic Alexandre Ganachaud, Laboratoire circulation: present and future d'Etudes Géophysiques et d'Océanographie Spatiales (LEGOS)/IRD and Alex Sen Gupta, University of New South Wales – remotely 14.30 Intra-seasonal variability of the SPCZ and its role in tropical-extra tropical interaction 15.00 Afternoon tea 15.30 Origin and variability of the SPCZ (continued) Chair: Jo Brown, PCCSP Scribe: Matthieu Lengaigne, IRD 15.30 The SPCZ and decadal climate variability Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) 16.00 Panel discussion 17:00 Day 1 Close Chair: Axel Timmermann, International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) Scribe: Simon McGree, PCCSP Christophe Menkes, IRD, N. Jourdain, N., P. Marchesiello, S. Jullien, V. Faure, J. Lefevre, M. Lengaigne, E. Vincent, J.F. Royer, F. Chauvin Adrian Matthews, University of East Anglia (UEA) Day 2 – Wednesday, 25 August 2010 09.00 Ocean and SPCZ variability/ ENSO teleconnections Chair: Drew Lorrey, NIWA Scribe: Jo Brown, PCCSP 09.00 Sea surface temperature and sea surface salinity variability during the last century, separately derived from corals collected on western and eastern sides of Fiji Archipelago Anne Juillet-Leclerc, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 09.30 Simulation of ENSO-rainfall teleconnection: does it matter for rainfall projection? Wenju Cai, PCCSP 10.00 Interannual variability of the SPCZ in observations and coupled General circulation models: Implications for cyclogenesis Matthieu Lengaigne, IRD, E. Vincent, C. Menkes, P. Marchesiello, N. Jourdain, G. Madec 10.30 Morning tea 11.00 Ocean and SPCZ variability/ENSO teleconnections (continued) Chair: Wenju Cai, PCCSP Scribe: Jim Renwick, NIWA 11.00 Direct extra-tropical forcing (from both hemispheres) of the SPCZ on synoptic time scales George Kiladis, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) – remotely 11.30 Panel discussion 12.30 Lunch 13.00 Excursion and dinner 13.30 Excursion 18.00 Return from excursion 18.30 Aggie Grey’s for workshop dinner Day 3 – Thursday 26 August, 2010 09.00 Overview of South Pacific climate, and the SPCZ (continued) Chair: Jerry Meehl, NCAR Scribe: Matthew Widlansky, Georgia Tech 09:00 Climate, ENSO and SPCZ in Pacific island countries including impacts Leilua Mase Akapo Akapo, American Samoa Meteorological Service 09.30 SPCZ in climate models Chair: Jerry Meehl, NCAR Scribe: Matthew Widlansky, Georgia Tech 09.30 The SPCZ in CMIP3 coupled model simulations of 20th century climate Jo Brown, Scott Power, Francois Delage, PCCSP 10.00 Validation of the SPCZ using a patternmatching technique Francois Delage, Aurel Moise, PCCSP 10.30 Morning tea 11.00 Panel discussion 11.30 Origin and influence of SPCZ Chair: Jerry Meehl, NCAR Scribe: Axel Timmermann, IPRC 11.30 A general theory for the spatial and transient behaviour of the SPCZ Matthew Widlansky, Peter Webster (Georgia Tech) 12.00 SPCZ character and variability in regional station data (title tbc) Drew Lorrey, NIWA 12:30 Lunch 13.30 Global warming, SPCZ and ENSO 13.30 The effect of global warming on winds, the SPCZ and regional sea-level 14.00 Global warming, ENSO, the SPCZ and tropical cyclones Scott Power, PCCSP 14.30 The SPCZ: Can idealized atmospheric modelling help us to understand interactions and feedbacks between convection and large-scale dynamics? Gilles Bellon, Meteo-France 15.00 Afternoon tea 15:20 Panel session 16.15 SPCZ review Scott Power, PCCSP 16.35 Meeting evaluation Mandy Hopkins, PCCSP 16.45 Closing Remarks Scott Power, PCCSP and Matthieu Lengaigne, IRD 17.00 Close Chair: Adrian Matthews, UEA Scribe: Jo Brown, PCCSP Axel Timmermann, IPRC