Energy Efficiency and Future
Cornerstones for Economic Success
Yasuo Tanabe
Vice President
Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry
(RIETI)
“Economic Relations Japan-Switzerland” Conference
July 3, 2006, Zug
1. Key Issues and Positions
– Energy efficiency as triple bottomline: energy security, environmental
sustainability, and economic growth
– Three keys: government, market and
technology
– International cooperation as essential
mechanism
1
(1) Energy Intensity of Key Countries
Prim ary En e rg y S u pply( to e ) / re al G D P( U S 2 0 0 0 $ )
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Ru ssia
Source IEA (2005)
V i e t n am
In di a
C h in a
W o r l d ave r ag e
U. S . A .
F r an c e
G e r m an y
U. K .
S wi t z e r l an d
J apan
2
(2) If the world was Japan，how much CO2 would we have in 2030?
CO2 billion
38.2
t
40
35
+62%
30
Current course (IEA) ①
23.6
25
21.1
-11%
20
World as Japan ②
15
10
5
0
2002
Source: ①IEA, World Energy Outlook 2004
②calculation by Tanabe using Japan’s CO2/GDP and 3.5% p.a. econ. growth (World Economic Prospects)
2030
3
(3) Performance of Japan’s Energy Efficiency
GDP and Energy Consumption in Japan
30
real GDP（trillion yen）
（10 18 J）
600
510
25
500
real GDP（right axis）
(le
22.98
ft
primary energy supply
axi
(left axis)
s)16.02
20
15
400
Elasticity
1965-’73
’73-’79
’79-’86
’86-’91
’91-2003
1.19
0.29
-0.11
0.85
0.71
300
final energy consumption
10
(left axis)
200
7.07
5
100
4.54
0
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
0
00 02
（Fy）
Source : METI
4
(4) Performance of Japan’s Energy Efficiency
Energy Consumption by Sector in Japan
(trillion yen in 2000 price)
（兆円、2000年価格）
（10 1 8 J）
18
Gulf Cris is
Real GDP 523tr.Yen
実質GDP 523兆円
500
16
2nd Oil
Crisis
14
Transportation
24%
1st Oil
Crisis
12
400
Transportation
17％
Residential
and Services
28%
10
300
Residential
and Services
19%
8
6
Industry
48%
Industry
64%
200
4
100
2
0
Source : METI
0
65
70
73 75
7980
85
9091
95
00
03（年度）
5
(5) Performance of Japan’s Energy Efficiency
Energy Intensity by Industry in Japan
Fy73=100
120
100
80
M a nufa ct ur ing
S t ee l
C he m ica l
C em en t
P a p er & P u lp
60
40
20
0
73
78
(energy consumption / IIP)
Source : METI
83
88
93
98
03
6
2. Practical Examples (Japanese Experience)
– Top-runner standard
– CDM
– Technologies
7
(1) Top Runner Program
Energy Conservation Measures for Machinery & Equipment
“Top Runner Program”
Concept
Conceptfor
forsetting
settingtarget
targetstandard
standard
Fuel efficiency
Energy efficiency standard
((A)is the top runner.)
Target value is set based on the
products with the highest energy
efficiency in the market.
18km/L
17km/L
Target Value
16km/L
A
15km/L
B
C
14km/L
D
Source : ECCJ
Weighted
Average
TRP regulates the weighted
average of shipment volume
of products in the same
category per manufacturers,
importer etc., in terms of
energy efficiency.
Currently
Currentlydesignated
designatedproducts
products
Total 21 products designated
1. Air conditioners
2. Fluorescent lights
3. Television sets
4. Copying machines
5. Computers
6. Magnetic disk units
7. Video cassette
recorders
8. Passenger vehicles
9. Freight vehicles
10. Electric refrigerators
11. Electric freezers
11 products
designated in 1999
12. Space heaters
13. Gas cooking
appliances
14. Gas water heaters
15. Oil water heaters
16. Electric toilet seats
17. Vending machines
18. Transformers
(molded)
7 more products
designated in 2002
19. Electric Ovens
20. Electric Rice Cookers
21. DVD Recorders
3 more products
designated in 2006
8
(1) Top Runner Program
Actual Improvement of Energy Saving in Target Fiscal
Year
Actual
Initial Expected
Improvement
Energy Saving (%)
Energy Saving (%)
compared to the
compared to the
Base Year at the
Base Year at the
Targetl Year
Target Year
Base
Year
Target
Year
FY1997
FY2004
63.0
67.8
FY1997
FY2003
16.4
25.7
VCRs
FY1997
FY2003
58.7
73.6
Electric refrigerators
FY1998
FY2004
30.5
55.2
Electric freezers
FY1998
FY2004
22.9
29.6
Gasoline Passenger
Vehicles
FY1998
FY2004
23.0 (*)
22.0
Equipment
Air Conditioners
(below 4kW)
TV sets
<Cathode Ray TV>
Source : ECCJ
(*) 1995->2010
9
(2) CDM : Model Project in Vietnam
JAPAN
NEDO
(Entrusted to)
MYCOM
VIETNAM
CERs Credit Transfer
Agreement
Transfer of CERs
Implementation of
equipment
MOI
HABECO
Permits &
Supervising
BTH
NEDO: New Energy & Industrial Technology Development Organization
MYCOM: Mayekawa MFG. Co., Ltd.
BTH: Bia Thanh Hoa
HABECO: Hanoi Alcohol Beer Beverage Corp.
MOI: Ministry of Industry
Source : NEDO
10
(2) CDM : Model Project in Vietnam
Introduced Energy-saving
Energy-saving Systems
Latest VRC System
Optimal Pasteurizing System
C
C
V
B
B
T
Chiller
Chiller
Chiller
Economical Methane recovery
System
Cascade Cooling System
Dynamic Ice Storage/Transportation
System
Source :NEDO
11
(2) CDM : Model Project in Vietnam
Effect of the proposed 4 systems
Steam
Electric power
Vapor
Recompression
Cycle
Saving steam by
Reusing the
discharged
steam
Additional power Mitigating the
required
strong odor to
outside
Refrigeration
system
Saving steam by
heat recovery
from discharge
gas
Saving power
Effective
demand-side
management
Optimizing
system for
pasteurizer
Saving steam by
optimization
No effect
Saving water
consumption
Biogas Boiler
Steam
generation by
Biogas
No effect
Anaerobic
wastewater
treatment added
˜ Energy-saving:
˜ CO2 emission reduction:
Source :NEDO
3,386 Toe
10,376 Ton
Others
12
(3)Technology ①Photovoltaic
Progress of PV R&D in Japan
R&D Items
R&D Results
２０００
Back Reflector
(NSS Project Completed)
poly-Si
Bottom Cell
Thin Film Silicon Solar Cells (140 yen/W)
<Hybrid TF-Si Solar Cells >
Low Cost SOG-Si Production Process
<BIPV module>
Interlayer
１９９７
a-Si Top Cell
<CIS solar Cells>
Textured TCO
Glass Substrate
NEDO’s Present R&D Programs for
Low Cost Solar Cells and Module Production
<TF-Si Solar Cells >
Low Cost mc-Silicon Solar Cells Production Technology
(Efficiency = 17.2%, 189 yen/W)
<III-V high eff. Solar cells>
１９９２
Sun-Light
Technology for a-Si Solar Cells Production
<PV System Demonstration >
Residential PV System Technology
<1MW Demonstrate
PV plant (Saijyo)>
<Grid Connected
PV System>
<Amorphous Silicon
Solar Cells> １９８０
<II-VI compound
Solar cells>
<Crystalline Silicon
Solar Cells>
１９７３
1MW PV Power Plant
Textured surface
500 KW Pilot Production- Line for
mc-Si Solar Cells
Printing fine-electrode
AR-coating
Establishment of NEDO
Basic Technology for Silicon
Solar Cells (wafer, cell-process)
(SS Project Initiated)
BSF
Source :NEDO
13
(3)Technology ①Photovoltaic
Photovoltaic Application in the World
(MW)
1200
2004
World 2596MW
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Japan
Germany
U.S
Austraria Netherland
Spain
Italy
France
Source : METI
14
(3)Technology ①Photovoltaic
Photovoltaic Application in Japan
（￥million）
4
（MW）
1200
1132
System price(￥million/kw)(Left bar)
Appilication with subsidy(cumulative)(Right bar)
All application(cumulative)(Right bar)
1100
1000
3
900
795
800
700
2
600
500
400
1
300
0.67
200
100
0
0
93
Source : METI
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
（year）
15
(3)Technology ②Fuel Cell
Fuel Cell Applications
For
For
Households
Households
FUEL CELL
H2
For
For Mobile
Mobile
Computers
Computers
Source : METI
For
For Vehicles
Vehicles
O2
H2O
For
For Industry
Industry
16
(3)Technology ②Fuel Cell
Japan’s Targets and Policies
FCV
Stationary PEFC
2010
2010 50,000
50,000
2020
2020 5M
5M
2030
2030 15M
15M
2002 R&D
R&D Stage
Stage
Infra
Demonstration
Project
Codes
Review of
Regulations
R&D
R&D on
FC and H2
2010
2010 2.1GW
2.1GW
2020
2020 10
10 GW
GW
2030
2030 12.5
12.5 GW
GW
2005-
2020-
2010-
Introduction
Introduction Stage
Stage
Diffusion
Diffusion Stage
Stage
Step-by-step
Construction
Full-Scale
Full-Scale
Diffusion
Diffusion Stage
Stage
Grow
Naturally
Further R&D
Source : METI
17
(3)Technology ③Hybrid Car
Clean Energy Cars in Japan
( numbers of Hybrid )
( numbers )
30,000
250,000
Natural Gas Car（Left bar）
Electric Car(Left bar)
Methanol Car（Left bar）
Hybrid Car（Right bar）
25,000
200,000
20,000
150,000
15,000
100,000
10,000
50,000
5,000
0
0
88
Source : METI
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
( year-end )
18
(3)Technology
④ Heat pump
Source : IEA Heat pump center
19