Offic e of
Resea rc h & Pla nning
RRN
442
The Relationship of Momentum
Points, Placement Results, and
Student Service and Instructional
Strategies to the ARCC SPAR
Milestones
2005 – 2006 First-Time College Six Year Cohort
Prepared by: Keith Wurtz
Office of Research and Planning
Date: 20120607
ARCC_Research_June2012_EnrollMgmtPlan.docx
0506to1011ARCCSPAR.sav
Grades_0506to1011_GOR_CHC_20110614.sav
Grades_All_GOR_CHC_20110614.sav
2005-2011_CHC_Demo_SB16.sav
Datatel_Placements_20110203_CoursesOnly.sav
Background
Objective 1.1 in the Crafton Hills College (CHC) Enrollment Management Plan states
the following: Identify systemic dropout/stop-out points for CHC students so that
effective interventions can be designed and implemented. In October of 2011 the
Enrollment Management Committee (EMC) decided to use the Accountability Reporting
for Community Colleges (ARCC) Student Progress and Achievement Rate (SPAR) data
to identify student dropout points and strategies related to student success. The SPAR
cohort consists of first-time College students in 2005 – 2006 at Crafton Hills College
with a minimum of twelve units earned who attempted a degree, certificate, or transfer
course within six years (i.e. 2010-2011). The California Community College
Chancellor’s Office (CCCCO) provides each community college with the SPAR data set
in March of each year. Accordingly, the CHC Office of Research and Planning (ORP)
used the 2012 SPAR data provided by the CCCCO to identify dropout points and
strategies related to students achieving one of the SPAR milestones: transferring to a
four-year institution, transfer prepared, transfer directed, and earning a degree or
certificate.
Executive Summary
The best predictor of achieving any of the SPAR transfer milestones was to successfully
complete transfer level math. In addition to successfully completing transfer level math,
the time it took for students to complete transfer level math also had a relationship with
the SPAR transfer milestones. Specifically, students were twice as likely to transfer to a
four-year institution if they successfully completed transfer level math in five years.
Moreover, students were twice as likely to transfer to a four-year institution if they
successfully completed 15 units in their first semester. Students were also more likely
to transfer if they enrolled full-time in 4 or more semesters or enrolled in 2 or more
summer semesters.
Equally important, students were more than twice as likely to be transfer prepared if
they successfully completed transfer level math in four-years. Students were also twice
as likely to be transfer prepared if they enrolled full-time in 4 or more semesters, or
2
completed 30 units within 2.5 years. In addition, students were almost twice as likely to
be transfer prepared if they completed 15 units in their first semester or enrolled in 2 or
more summer semesters.
The best predictor of achieving the SPAR degree or certificate milestone was to
successfully complete 30 units. In addition to successfully completing 30 units, the time
it took for students to complete 30 units had a relationship with the SPAR degree or
certificate milestone. Specifically, students were 1.5 times more likely to earn a degree
or certificate if they completed 30 units within 4 years. Moreover, students were 1.5
times more likely to earn a degree or certificate if they completed a Student Education
Plan (SEP) in the first year, and over twice as likely to earn a degree or certificate if they
met with a counselor 3 or more times a year. Equally important, students were twice as
likely to earn a degree or certificate if they enrolled in 2 or more summer semesters.
Achieving any one of the following Milestones: Transferring to a Four-Year
Institution, Transfer Prepared (60 transferable units with a 2.0 or higher GPA),
Transfer Directed (successfully completing transfer level math and English), or
Earning a Degree or Certificate of 18 or more units
Predictor of Achieving Any Milestone
 Successfully completing transfer level math is the best predictor of achieving any
milestone
 Completing 30 units in 3.5 years is the second best predictor of achieving any
milestone for students who do not successfully complete transfer level math
Hurdles to Achieving Any Milestone
 Students are statistically significantly and substantially less likely to achieve any
milestone if they…
o Place into 2 or 3 basic skills courses
o Assess after they have enrolled in their first course
3
Increasing the Likelihood of Achieving Any Milestone
 Students are statistically significantly and substantially more likely to achieve any
milestone if they…
o Place into a transfer level math course
o Place into a transfer level English course
Momentum Points for Achieving Any Milestone
 Students are statistically significantly and substantially more likely to achieve any
milestone if they…
o Complete transfer level math within 6 years
o Complete 30 units within 2 years
o Complete college level math within 1 year
o Complete transfer level English within 1 year
o Complete basic skills math within 4 years
o Complete 15 units in their first semester
Student Services Strategies for Achieving Any Milestone
 Students are statistically significantly and substantially more likely to achieve any
milestone if they…
o Update their SEP after completing an SEP in their first year
o Meet with a counselor 6 or more times
Instructional Strategies for Achieving Any Milestone
 Students are statistically significantly and substantially more likely to achieve any
milestone if they…
o Enroll full-time in 5 or more semesters
o Enroll in 2 or more summer semesters
o Visit the Tutoring Center at least once
Transferring to a Four-Year Institution
Predictor of Transferring to a Four-Year Institution
 Successfully completing transfer level math is the best predictor of transferring to
a four-year institution
Hurdles to Transferring to a Four-Year Institution
 Students are statistically significantly and substantially less likely to transfer if
they…
o Place into 2 or 3 basic skills courses
o Assess after they have enrolled in their first course
o Applied for and received financial aid
4
Increasing the Likelihood of Transferring to a Four-Year Institution
 Students are statistically significantly and substantially more likely to transfer if
they…
o Place into a transfer level math course
o Place into a transfer level English course
Momentum Points for Transferring to a Four-Year Institution
 Students are statistically significantly and substantially more likely to transfer if
they…
o Complete transfer level math within 5 years
o Complete 30 units within 2 years
o Complete transfer level English within 2 years
o Complete college level math within 2.5 years
o Complete basic skills math within 3.5 years
o Complete 15 units in their first semester
Instructional Strategies for Transferring to a Four-Year Institution
 Students are statistically significantly and substantially more likely to transfer if
they…
o Enroll full-time in 4 or more semesters
o Enroll in 2 or more summer semesters
Achieving Transfer Preparedness (60 transferable units with a 2.0 or higher GPA)
Predictor of Transfer Preparedness
 Successfully completing transfer level math is the best predictor of being transfer
prepared
Hurdles to being Transfer Prepared
 Students are statistically significantly and substantially less likely to be transfer
prepared if they…
o Place into 2 or 3 basic skills courses
Increasing the Likelihood of being Transfer Prepared
 Students are statistically significantly and substantially more likely to be transfer
prepared if they…
o Place into a transfer level math course
5
Momentum Points for being Transfer Prepared
 Students are statistically significantly and substantially more likely to be transfer
prepared if they…
o Complete transfer level math within 4 years
o Complete 30 units within 2.5 years
o Complete college level math within 3 years
o Complete transfer level English within 2 years
o Complete basic skills math within 6 years
o Complete 15 units in their first semester
Instructional Strategies for being Transfer Prepared
 Students are statistically significantly and substantially more likely to be transfer
prepared if they…
o Enroll full-time in 4 or more semesters
o Enroll in 2 or more summer semesters
Achieving Transfer Directedness (successfully completing transfer level math
and English)
Predictor of being Transfer Directed
 Successfully completing transfer level math is the best predictor of being
Transfer Directed
Hurdles to be Transfer Directed
 Students are statistically significantly and substantially less likely to be Transfer
Directed if they…
o Place into 2 or 3 basic skills courses
Increasing the Likelihood of being Transfer Directed
 Students are statistically significantly and substantially more likely to be Transfer
Directed if they…
o Place into a transfer level math course
Momentum Points for being Transfer Directed
 Students are statistically significantly and substantially more likely to be Transfer
Directed if they…
o Complete transfer level math within 4 years
o Complete 30 units within 2.5 years
o Complete college level math within 3 years
o Complete transfer level English within 2 years
o Complete basic skills math within 6 years
o Complete 15 units in their first semester
6
Instructional Strategies for being Transfer Directed
 Students are statistically significantly and substantially more likely to be Transfer
Directed if they…
o Enroll full-time in 4 or more semesters
o Enroll in 2 or more summer semesters
Earning a Degree or Certificate of 18 Units or More
Predictor of earning a Degree or Certificate
 Completing 30 or more units is the best predictor of earning a degree or
certificate
Hurdles to earning a Degree or Certificate
 Students are statistically significantly and substantially less likely to earn a
Degree or Certificate if they…
o Assess after they have enrolled in their first course
Increasing the Likelihood of earning a Degree or Certificate
 Students are statistically significantly and substantially more likely to earn a
Degree or Certificate if they…
o Place into a transfer level English course
Momentum Points for earning a Degree or Certificate
 Students are statistically significantly and substantially more likely to earn a
Degree or Certificate if they…
o Complete 30 units within 4 years
o Complete transfer level math within 6 years
o Complete college level math within 3 years
o Complete transfer level English within 3.5 years
o Complete 15 units in their first semester
o Complete basic skills math in 1 to 3.5 years
Instructional Strategies for earning a Degree or Certificate
 Students are statistically significantly and substantially more likely to earn a
Degree or Certificate if they…
o Enroll in 2 or more summer semesters
o Enroll full-time in 4 or more semesters
o Visit the Tutoring Center at least once
7
Crafton Hills College
Methodology
In October of 2011 the Enrollment Management Committee (EMC) decided to use the
Accountability Reporting for Community Colleges (ARCC) Student Progress and
Achievement Rate (SPAR) data to identify student dropout points. The SPAR cohort
consists of first-time College students at Crafton Hills College with a minimum of twelve
units earned who attempted a degree, certificate, or transfer course within six years.
The California Community College Chancellor’s Office (CCCCO) provides each
community college with the SPAR data set in March of each year. Accordingly, the
CHC Office of Research and Planning (ORP) used the 2012 SPAR data provided by the
CCCCO to identify dropout points and strategies related to student success.
In addition to using the SPAR data from ARCC, the EMC also discussed possible
momentum or dropout points. Leinbach and Jenkins (2008, pp. 1) define momentum
points as “measurable educational attainments, such as completing a college-level math
course, that are empirically correlated with the completion of a milestone.” The CCCCO
Student Success Task Force (SSTF, 2011) refers to momentum points as progression
metrics. Based on research and on discussions with the EMC, the following momentum
or dropout points were identified.

Number of terms to enroll in first math course

Number of terms to enroll in first English course

Number of terms to successfully complete English and reading basic skills
competencies

Number of terms to successfully complete math basic skills competencies

Number of terms to successfully complete all basic skills competencies

Number of terms to successfully complete 15 or more semester units

Number of terms to successfully complete 30 or more semester units

Number of terms to successfully complete transfer level math

Number of terms to successfully complete transfer level English

Number of summer terms earned a Grade on Record
8
In addition to the momentum points, the EMC also wanted to know if any of the
following strategies and student assessment results were more or less likely to be
related to students reaching a milestone (i.e. educational achievement). Some of the
momentum points identified by the EMC were not examined because they did not fit
methodologically with the 2005 – 2006 first-time college student cohort. Namely,
students who participated in SOA3R were not included because SOA3R did not exist in
2005 – 2006. In addition, students who participated in Student Life were not included
because a historic list going back to 2005 - 2006 of students with SIDs was not
available.
Student Assessment Results

Completed the assessment prior to the student’s first section start date

Number of basic skills placements

Number of developmental course placements

Number of transfer level course placements

Math placement

English placement

Reading placement
Student Service Strategies

Attended an orientation

Met with a counselor in the student’s first term at Crafton

Met with a counselor and completed a Student Education Plan (SEP) in first year
o Updated the SEP within six years

Number of times met with a counselor

Financial Aid status (received aid, denied aid, and did not apply for aid)

Utilized services provided by the Health and Wellness Center
Instructional Strategies

Number of times utilized the tutoring center

Participated in a learning community

Successfully completed a CHC or PCD course

Number of terms students enrolled full-time
9
Milestones are defined by Leinbach and Jenkins (2008, pp. 1) as “…measurable
educational achievements that include both conventional terminal completions, such as
earning a credential or transferring to a baccalaureate program, and intermediate
outcomes, such as completing…[transfer level math and English or successfully
completing enough units to be transfer prepared.]” Accordingly, the following
milestones were used to identify the most effective momentum points and strategies
related to student success.

Received certificate of 18 or more units

Achieved transfer directed status (i.e. student successfully completed both
transfer-level math and English courses)

Achieved transfer preparedness (i.e. student successfully completed 60 UC/CSU
transferable units with a GPA >= 2.0

Received AA/AS Degree

Transferred to a four-year institution
Momentum Point Definitions
Number of Terms to Enroll in Math or English
The number of terms was defined by first identifying the first term in which each student
in the cohort earned a grade on record (GOR) and counting the number of primary
terms only. Primary terms include fall and spring only, not summer. Summer was
treated as the corresponding fall semester in generating the count for the number of
terms because students often do not enroll in summer courses. For instance, Summer
2007 was treated as Fall 2007 when counting the number of terms.
Grade on Record (GOR)
Grade on record (GOR) refers to a student earning one of the following grades: A, B, C,
D, F, I, NP, P, or W. A student who earned a GOR has enrolled in the course and
remained in the course after the census date. The census date is the date that occurs
at the 20% point after the start date of the course.
10
Basic Skills Competencies
Students who took the assessment and placed into college or transfer level courses
were identified as needing no terms to successfully complete all of the basic skills
competencies in reading, English, and math. If students, placed into a basic skills
course in one or more areas the number of terms it took them to successfully complete
a college level or higher course in that area was calculated. Specifically, in math,
students were counted as completing their basic skills competencies when they
successfully complete MATH-090, 095, or any transfer level math course. In 2005-2006
successful completion of MATH-090 or higher also met the mathematics requirement for
graduation. Students were counted as completing their basic skills competency in
English and reading when they successfully completed READ-078, ENGL-015, or any
transfer level English course. Reading was combined with English because most
students meet their graduation requirement for reading by successfully completing an
English course.
15 and/or 30 Semester Units
The CCCCO Management Information System (MIS) database was used to determine
the number of semesters it took students to earn 15 and/or 30 units. The field, SB16, is
the number of semester units earned at Crafton. This field was used to identify the first
term a student earned 15 and/or 30 or more semester units.
Number of Terms to Successfully Complete Transfer Math or English
The number of terms to successfully complete transfer level math or English is defined
in the same way as described above. The first term in which each student in the cohort
earned a grade on record (GOR) was identified and the number of primary terms were
the only terms counted. As described previously, summer was included with the
corresponding fall semester. To be included, students had to successfully complete a
transfer level English or math course by earning one of the following grades: A, B, C, or
CR (P).
11
Student Assessment Definitions
Assessed Prior to Start Date
Students who assessed prior to earning their first GOR at Crafton were identified as
assessing prior to their first start date. Namely, students who completed an assessment
test in either English, reading, or math prior to enrolling in their first course at Crafton
were compared to students who assessed after enrolling in their first course at Crafton.
A limitation to this measure is that students may have attended a course prior to
enrolling in the course.
Number of Basic Skills, Developmental, and Transfer Course Placements
The number of basic skills, developmental, and transfer level course placements refers
to the number of disciplines where a student placed into each level. As an illustration, a
student who placed into a basic skills English, reading, and math course had three basic
skills placements. Basic skills courses are courses that are below college level and are
not applicable to a degree. Developmental courses include basic skills courses and
courses that are degree applicable, but are not transferable to a four-year institution.
Transfer course placements are courses that are transferable to a four-year institution.
Course Placements
Course placements refer to the math, English, and reading courses that students placed
into when they were assessed for the first time at Crafton.
Strategy Definitions
Student Services Strategies
Orientation
In general, counseling contacts within an academic year included student contact with
counseling from the end of the spring term in 2005 to the end of the following spring
term in 2006. Specifically, students were identified as attending orientation if they had a
location code of “C_COUNSEL,” a reason code of “ORIENTATION,” and an
“Attend_Flag” code equal to “Y” in SARS Grid, indicating that the student attended an
orientation at Crafton from May 19th, 2005 to May 17th, 2006.
12
Counselor in the First Term
Counseling contacts within an academic year included student contact with counseling
from the end of the spring term in 2005 to the end of the spring term in 2006.
Specifically, if a student met with a counselor from May 19th, 2005 to July 28th, 2005 and
their first term was summer 2005; from May 19th, 2005 to December 16th, 2005 and their
first term was fall 2005; or from May 19th, 2005 to May 17th, 2006 and their first term
was spring 2006 then they were counted as meeting with a counselor in their first term.
In addition, in order to be counted as having contact with a counselor a student had to
have an “Attend_Flag” code of “Y” and a location code of “C_COUNSEL” or “C_EOPS”.
Student Education Plan (SEP)
A student was identified as having completed a Student Education Plan (SEP) in their
first year if they met with a counselor from May 19th, 2005 to May 17th, 2006, had a
location code of “C_COUNSEL,” a reason code of “SEP”, and an “Attend_Flag” code of
“Y”. In addition, if a student developed an SEP in the first year they were also tracked
to see if they updated the SEP anytime within the six years of the study: May 19 th, 2005
to May 24th, 2011.
Number of Times Met with a Counselor
In order to be counted as meeting with a counselor a student had to have an
“Attend_Flag” code of “Y” and a location code of “C_COUNSEL” or “C_EOPS” from May
19th, 2005 to May 24th, 2011.
Financial Aid Status
Students were identified as applying for financial aid if they were in the financial aid
Datatel file (i.e. SA.XXXX) from June 20th, 2005 to May 24th, 2011 and were awarded
aid, denied aid, had a note to sign, or had a pending status. The date field used to
identify whether or not a student was in the award file was the date the student was
added to the file (i.e. SA.ACYR.ADD.DATE). The time frame corresponds to the
academic years from 2005-2006 to 2010-2011. Students were also identified as
receiving aid if they had a SA.ACTION status of “A”. Similarly, if students had a
SA.ACTION status of “D,” they were identified as applying for aid and being denied aid.
13
Number of Times Utilized the Health and Wellness Center
Students were counted as having utilized the Health and Wellness Center (HWC) when
they had an “Attend_Flag” code of “Y” and a location code of “C_HWC” from June 20th,
2005 to May 24th, 2011. The start date of the Summer 2005 semester was used
through the end of the Spring 2011 semester.
Instructional Strategies
Number of Times Utilized Tutoring Center
In order to be counted as accessing the tutoring center a student had to have an
“Attend_Flag” code of “Y” and a location code of “C_LRC Tutoring”. Students were only
counted as accessing the tutoring center from August 8th, 2008 to May 24th, 2011
because SARS grid was not available to track students utilizing the Tutoring Center
prior to August 8th, 2008.
Participated in a Learning Community
The first learning community (LC) at Crafton Hills College was offered in the Spring
2007 semester. Accordingly, students were identified as having participated in an LC if
they enrolled in a LC section from Spring 2007 to Spring 2011.
Successfully Completed a CHC or PCD Course
Students were identified as successfully completing a CHC or PCD course if they
earned a grade of A, B, C, or P (CR) in one of the following courses: CHC-090X4, CHC100, PCD-050, or PCD-111. CHC-090X4 is a study skills course, CHC-100 is a student
success strategies course, PCD-050 is an orientation course, and PCD-111 is a career
and life planning course.
Number of Times Student Enrolled Full-Time
Each semester from Summer 2005 to Spring 2011 that a student enrolled in 12 or more
units was counted as enrolling full-time.
Number of Summer Terms Earned a GOR
The number of summer terms a student earned a GOR.
14
Control Variable
Number of Times Student Successfully Completed an Occupational Course
Many faculty have mentioned that students are often required by many of the CHC
occupational programs to utilize the HWC. Accordingly, one additional variable added
to the analysis as a control variable was the number of times a student successfully
completed a clearly or advanced occupational course from 2005 – 2006 to 2010 – 2011.
Statistical Analyses
Effect Size
Recognizing that statistically significant differences are often an artifact of sample size
(with large samples, only minimal differences can produce statistically significant
results; conversely, with small samples large outcome differences may not be identified
as statistically significantly different), effect size and the 95% confidence interval (CI) for
the effect size were also examined. In essence, effect size measures the strength of a
relationship between two variables, controlling for the influence of sample size.
Since t-tests were initially used to explore whether statistically significant differences
existed between students who completed and did not complete a milestone, the logical
measure employed by the Office of Research and Planning to determine effect size was
Cohen’s d. Cohen’s d is defined as the difference between the two means divided by
the pooled standard deviation for the two means. Obtaining basic statistical data about
the populations in question (means and standard deviations); researchers can easily
calculate effect size. While interpretations vary, the most commonly accepted
interpretations suggest that a d of 0.20 indicates a small effect, 0.50 a medium effect,
and 0.80 or higher a large effect. Recognizing the difficulty in identifying a relationship
between two variables in a quasi-experimental environment like postsecondary
education, for the purposes of the current study, sufficient evidence was considered to
exist if an effect size of 0.20 or higher was observed. In addition, the 95% effect size
confidence interval was also used to indicate the likelihood of achieving the milestone.
Specifically, a lower effect size limit higher than 0 indicates that the effect of the
momentum point, assessment result, or strategy has a 95% probability of reaching the
milestone.
15
Segmentation Modeling
A useful statistical model in identifying predictors of student success outcomes with
different types of variables is the classification and regression tree (CART) modeling.
This statistical application is useful in situations where the overall goal is to divide a
population into segments that differ with respect to a designated criterion (Borges &
Cherpitel, 2001; Hannover & Kordy2005). In short, CART modeling affords researchers
the opportunity to examine the interaction and impact of a large number of distinct
categorical predictor variables (e.g., gender, ethnicity, momentum points, assessment
results, student services strategies, instructional strategies) on a categorical dependent
variable (e.g., achieved student success outcome/did not achieve student success
outcome) (Strobl, Malley, & Tutz, 2009). CART modeling initially identifies the best
predictor variable, conducting a splitting algorithm that further identifies additional
statistically significant predictor variables and splits these variables into smaller
subgroups (SPSS, 2001; Strobl et al.). CART modeling merges categories of a
predictor variable that are not significantly different. This merging, combined with the
splitting algorithm, ensures that cases in the same segment are homogeneous with
respect to the segmentation criterion, while cases in different segments tend to be
heterogeneous with respect to the segmentation criterion.
As it relates to the current studies, segmentation modeling has a number of distinct
advantages over other statistical methods traditionally used to examine categorical data
(e.g., chi-square, regression analysis, etc.). Utilizing segmentation modeling,
researchers can easily determine whether specific aspects of numerous categorical
predictor variables interact to provide a more accurate identification of sub-populations
relative to the dependent variable identified in each study (e.g., Hispanic male students
might be more likely to enroll in a summer semester) (Hannover & Kordy, 2005).
Additionally, since segmentation modeling evaluates all of the values of each potential
predictor variable for statistically significant differences, it can be assumed that
variables that are not included in the final model do not differ in respect to the
dependent variable (e.g., if ethnicity does not load as a predictor of transferring to a
four-year institution, it can be assumed that ethnicity is not a predictor variable and
16
statistically significant differences do not exist by ethnic group in regard to predicting
transfer). Finally, segmentation modeling can be displayed in an easy-to-visualize
decision tree, producing results that are easier to interpret and more user-friendly than
traditional exploratory statistical methods.
For each student success outcome, the tables on the following page identifies:
1. The dichotomous dependent variable (i.e. milestones).
2. The independent variables employed. When an independent variable was found
to be statistically significantly related to a student success outcome, if possible,
the number of terms (e.g.: # of terms to complete transfer level math) or times (#
of times saw a counselor) to achieve the independent variable was included in a
separate model by itself to inform the development of proactive strategies to help
students achieve the outcome. These were noted in the following table (e.g.: # of
terms to complete transfer level math).
17
Study Matrix
Variables Incorporated in Each Study
Dependent
Variable
Milestones
Achieved any
milestone
(i.e. SPAR)
(Y/N)
Transferred
to Four-Year
Institution
(Y/N)
Transfer
Prepared
(Y/N)
Transfer
Directed
(Y/N)
Earned
Degree or
Certificate
(Y/N)
Independent Variables
Demographics
Gender
Ethnicity
Age Range
Momentum
Points
Completed
Transfer Math
(Y/N) (# of
years)
Completed
Transfer
English (Y/N)
(# of years)
Completed
College Level
Math (Y/N) (#
of years)
Completed
College Level
English (Y/N)
(# of years)
Completed
Basic Skills
Math (Y/N) (#
of years)
Completed 15
units (Y/N) (# of
years)
Completed 30
units (Y/N) (# of
years)
Assessment
Results
Assessed prior
to first GOR
(Y/N)
Student
Services
Strategies
Attended
Orientation in
First Year (Y/N)
2 or 3 Basic
Skills
Placements
(Y/N)
2 or 3 College
Level
Placements
(Y/N)
1 or more
Transfer Level
Placements
(Y/N)
Transfer Math
Placement
(Y/N)
Saw a
Counselor in
First Term (Y/N)
Transfer English
Placement
(Y/N)
Transfer
Reading
Placement
(Y/N)
Applied for
Financial Aid
(Y/N)
Received
Financial Aid
(Y/N)
Student
Education Plan
(SEP) in First
Year (Y/N)
Updated SEP if
created one in
First Year (Y/N)
Saw a
Counselor (Y/N)
(# of times)
Denied
Financial Aid
(Y/N)
Accessed the
Health &
Wellness
Center (Y/N) (#
of times)
18
Instructional
Strategies
Accessed
Tutoring Center
(Y/N) (# of
times)
Successfully
Completed
CHC/PCD
Course (Y/N)
Full-Time
Student (Y/N) (#
of years)
Participated in
Learning
Community
(Y/N)
Enrolled in
Summer Term
(Y/N) (# of
summer years)
Sample
The CCCCO ARCC SPAR data file identified 924 Crafton students as first-time college
Crafton students in 2005 – 2006 with a minimum of 12 units earned and who attempted
a degree, certificate, or transfer course within six years from 2005 – 2006 from 2010 –
2011. Eight of these students were identified as having completed a course at Crafton
prior to 2005 – 2006, and were excluded from the study. In addition, 11 students had
identification numbers that were not in Crafton’s MIS database (i.e. Datatel) and were
also excluded from the study. Specifically, 905 students were included in the study and
19 (2.1%) were excluded.
Figure 1 illustrates the number and percent of students who achieved each milestone.
For instance, 50% of the students in the cohort achieved at least one of the five
milestones. The milestones of earning a degree or certificate were combined because
only 23 students in the cohort earned a certificate. Students in the cohort were most
likely (37%) to successfully complete transfer level math and English (i.e. Transfer
Directed), followed by transferring to a four-year institution (31%).
Figure 1: CHC 2005-2006 First-Time College Students Six-Year Milestone
Achievement Totals.
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
100%
905
50%
455
31%
277
Students in Achieved Any Transferred
Cohort
Milestone
to 4-YR
37%
24%
332
217
Transfer
Prepared
19
Transfer
Directed
15%
149
3%
137
17%
Earned
Degree or
Certificate
Earned
AA/AS
Degree
Earned
Certificate of
18 or More
Units
23
Figure 2 illustrates the number and percent of students who achieved each momentum
point. For instance, 61% of the students in the cohort successfully completed transfer
level English. The momentum points of earning a GOR in English and math were not
examined because most students earned a GOR in English (90%) and math (86%).
However, successfully completing college level English was included in the study, even
though 98% of the students in the cohort achieved this outcome, to determine if the time
to complete college level English was related to achieving a milestone. Students in the
cohort were least likely (36%) to successfully complete transfer level math, followed by
completing 30 units (54%).
Figure 2: CHC 2005-2006 First-Time College Students Six-Year Momentum Point
Achievement Totals.
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
100%
98%
905
883
36%
61%
58%
554
526
90%
77%
78%
695
706
86%
813
779
GOR in
English
GOR in
Math
54%
487
327
Students Comp Tran Comp Tran Comp CL Comp CL
Comp
Comp 15 Comp 30
in Cohort
Math
English
Math
English Basic Math units
units
20
Figure 3 illustrates the number and percent of students who were assessed and the
assessment results for each student in the cohort. Ninety percent of the students
completed at least one assessment in English, reading, or math. As a result,
assessment results were not available for every student. The assessment data was
obtained from Datatel in 2005 – 2006. The placement results for English and math
appear to be correct; however, the results for reading do not appear to be correct
because there was a large discrepancy between the percent of students who place into
transfer level reading in 2009-2010 and those who placed into transfer level reading
2011-2012. Namely, in 2009 – 2010 45% of the students tested in reading placed into
transfer level reading (Wurtz, April, 2010); whereas, the historical reading placement
data only identified 12% of the students in the cohort placing into transfer level reading.
Accordingly, placing into reading was excluded from the study. Students in the cohort
were least likely to place into transfer level math (15%).
Figure 3: CHC 2005-2006 First-Time College Students Assessment Result Totals.
Cohort*
1000
900
800
700
905 90%
810
893
885
Number
884
779
600
500
400
300
200
42%
323
41%
400
30%
370
64%
254
15%
100
264
132
0
Assessed Prior to 2 or 3 Basic Skills
Start
Placements
2 or 3 CL
Placements
1 or more Tran
Placements
*The cohort changed based on the number of students with assessment results.
21
Tran Math
Placements
Tran English
Placements
Figure 4 illustrates the number and percent of students in the cohort that had contact
with a student service strategy for increasing the likelihood of student success. For
instance, 90% of the students in the cohort saw a counselor at least once in six years
and 64% of the students saw a counselor in their first term at Crafton. Almost all of the
students who applied for financial aid in the cohort, also received financial aid. Students
who utilized the Health and Wellness Center (HWC) were also examined to see if any
relationships identified with the HWC existed for both occupational and nonoccupational students.
Figure 4: CHC 2005-2006 First-Time College Students Six-Year Student Services
Strategies Totals.
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
100%
90%
905
816
64%
37%
332
583
25%
224
21%
47
*The denominator only includes the 224 students who completed an SEP in the first year.
22
45%
45%
407
405
29%
1%
7
259
Figure 5 illustrates the number and percent of students in the cohort that had contact
with an instructional strategy for increasing the likelihood of student success. For
instance, 70% of the students in the cohort attended Crafton full-time for at least one
semester. In addition, 49% of the students in the cohort enrolled in at least one summer
semester. Students were least likely to enroll in a learning community; however, the
learning community program at Crafton did not start until the Spring 2007 semester.
Figure 5: CHC 2005-2006 First-Time College Students Six-Year Instructional
Strategies Totals.
1000
900
800
100%
905
76%
700
691
600
500
49%
400
443
300
200
18%
18%
100
164
163
Accessed TC
CHC/PCD Course
1%
13
0
Students in
Cohort
Full-Time
Learning
Community
Enrolled Summer
Results
Figures 6 – 25 illustrate the relationship between students who completed a milestone
(i.e. any milestone, transfer, transfer prepared, transfer directed, and earned a degree
or certificate) and those who did not complete a milestone by momentum point,
assessment result, student service, and instructional strategy. As an illustration, Figure
6 shows that of the students who completed any milestone, 66% completed transfer
level math; and of the students who did not complete any milestone, only 6% completed
transfer level math. All of the statistically significant differences in Figures 6 - 25 are
identified with green font.
Tables 1 – 5 illustrate the effect size, 95% confidence intervals, and p-values for
students achieving a milestone by momentum point, assessment result, student service,
and instructional strategy. For instance, students who competed any milestone were
statistically significantly (p < .001) and substantially (ES = 1.61) more likely to
23
successfully completed transfer level math (66%) than students who did not complete
any milestone (6%). All of the statistically significant differences in Tables 1 – 5 are
identified with bold font.
Following each table is the CART Segmentation Model illustrating the predictor
variables that predict each milestone. The results of each segmentation model are
explained in sections entitled “Interpreting the Study….” The Exhaustive CHAID
segmentation model growing method was used to identify possible proactive strategies
that the college can implement in order to increase the likelihood that students will
achieve a milestone for the statistically significant results identified in tables 1 – 5.
24
Achieving Any Milestone
Figure 6: CHC 2005-2006 First-Time College Students Six-Year Milestone
Achievement Totals by Momentum Point.
120%
100%
80%
Completed Any Milestone
Did Not Complete Any Milestone
99% 97%
82%
81%
91%
66%
67%
63%
60%
40%
40%
20%
89%
77%
35%
30%
6%
0%
Comp Tran
Math
Comp Tran
English
Comp CL Math
Comp CL
English
Comp Basic Comp 15 units Comp 30 units
Math
Figure 7: CHC 2005-2006 First-Time College Students Six-Year Milestone
Achievement Totals by Student Assessment Results.
100%
90%
93%
Completed Any Milestone
86%
Did Not Complete Any Milestone
80%
70%
61%
60%
52%
49%
50%
40%
67%
37%
35%
30%
30%
23%
23%
20%
7%
10%
0%
Assessed Prior to 2 or 3 Basic Skills
Start
Placements
2 or 3 CL
Placements
25
1 or more Tran
Placements
Tran Math
Placement
Tran English
Placement
Figure 8: First-Time College CHC Students Six-Year Milestone Achievement
Totals by Student Services Strategies.
100%
92%
90%
Completed Any Milestone
88%
Did Not Complete Any Milestone
80%
64% 65%
70%
60%
50%
40%
43%
47%
36% 38%
26%
30%
43%
47%
32%
23%
25%
26%
20%
15%
10%
1% 1%
0%
Orientation Coun First
Term
SEP First
Year
Updated
SEP
Saw
Applied for Received Denied Aid Accessed
Counselor
Aid
Aid
HWC*
*The relationship is stronger for non-occupational students (i.e. Students who did not successfully complete a clearly or advanced
occupational course). Specifically, 23% of non-occupational students who accessed the HWC achieved a milestone; whereas, 16%
of non-occupational students who did not access the HWC achieved a milestone (p = .059, ES = .18). Conversely, 40% of
occupational students who accessed the HWC achieved a milestone; whereas, 44% of occupational students who did not access
the HWC achieved a milestone (p = .486, ES = -.08). Accordingly, accessing the HWC is more likely to have a stronger positive
relationship with occupational students than non-occupational students.
Figure 9: First-Time College CHC Students Six-Year Milestone Achievement
Totals by Instructional Strategies.
100%
90%
Completed Any Milestone
Did Not Complete Any Milestone
86%
80%
66%
70%
59%
60%
50%
39%
40%
30%
20%
22%
14%
19%
17%
10%
1%
0%
Accessed Tutoring
CHC/PCD Course
Enrolled Full-Time
26
2%
Learning
Community
Enrolled Summer
Table 1: Effect Size, 95% Confidence Intervals, and P-Values for Students
Achieving Any Milestone by Momentum Point, Assessment Results, Student
Service and Instructional Strategies.
No
Momentum Points
Completed Tran Math
Completed Tran Engl
Completed CL Math
Completed CL Engl
Completed Basic
Skills Math
Completed 15 Units
Completed 30 Units
Assessment
Assessed Prior to
First Start Date
2 or 3 Basic Skills
Placements
2 or 3 CL Placements
1 or More Tran
Placements
Tran Math Placement
Tran Engl Placement
Student Service
Strategies
Orientation
Counseling First Term
SEP First Year
Updated SEP
Saw Counselor
Applied for Aid
Received Aid
Denied Aid
Used HWC
Instructional Strategies
Tutoring Center
CHC/PCD Course
Full-Time
Learning Community
Summer
Yes
Effect Size & 95% CI
Lower & Upper ES
ES
Lower Upper
PValue
#
N
%
#
N
%
26
179
159
435
450
450
450
450
5.8
39.8
35.3
96.7
301
375
367
448
455
455
455
455
66.2
82.4
80.7
98.5
1.61
0.97
1.03
0.12
1.46
0.83
0.89
-0.01
1.76
1.11
1.17
0.25
< .001
< .001
< .001
.080
283
450
62.9
412
455
90.5
0.69
0.56
0.83
< .001
300
135
450
450
66.7
30.0
406
352
455
455
89.2
77.4
0.57
1.08
0.43
0.94
0.70
1.22
< .001
< .001
389
450
86.4
421
455
92.5
0.20
0.07
0.33
.003
177
358
49.4
146
421
34.7
-0.30
-0.44
-0.16
< .001
100
149
67.1
154
251
61.4
-0.12
-0.32
0.08
.248
133
440
30.2
237
453
52.3
0.46
0.33
0.59
< .001
30
98
435
435
6.9
22.5
102
166
450
449
22.7
37.0
0.45
0.32
0.32
0.19
0.59
0.45
< .001
< .001
170
292
105
16
396
211
210
4
113
450
450
450
105
450
450
450
450
450
37.8
64.9
23.3
15.2
88.0
46.9
46.7
0.9
25.1
162
291
119
31
420
196
195
3
146
455
455
455
119
455
455
455
455
455
35.6
64.0
26.2
26.1
92.3
43.1
42.9
0.7
32.1
-0.05
-0.02
0.07
0.27
0.14
-0.08
-0.08
-0.03
0.15
-0.18
-0.15
-0.07
0.00
0.01
-0.21
-0.21
-0.16
0.02
0.09
0.11
0.20
0.53
0.28
0.05
0.05
0.10
0.29
.498
.770
.326
.048
.030
.250
.250
.694
.020
65
75
298
9
177
450
450
450
450
450
14.4
16.7
66.2
2.0
39.3
99
88
393
4
266
455
455
455
455
455
21.8
19.3
86.4
0.9
58.5
0.19
0.07
0.49
-0.09
0.39
0.06
-0.06
0.35
-0.22
0.26
0.32
0.20
0.62
0.04
0.52
.004
.296
< .001
.158
< .001
27
Study #1: Students who achieved Any Milestone
(Student Progress and Achievement Rate, SPAR)
Study #1 examines students who achieved any milestone by either transferring to a
four-year institution, becoming transfer prepared, becoming transfer directed, or earning
a degree or certificate (coded as “1”) and students who did not achieve any milestone
(coded as “0”).
CART Segmentation Model Showing the Predictors of Achieving any Milestone
*Risk Estimate = .199, SE of Risk Estimate = .013, Improvement set to .01, Child Node set to 5% of Total N, Parent Node is
twice the Child Node.
28
Interpreting the Study #1 Decision Tree
In examining the decision tree created for Study #1, Node 0 indicates that among the
905 students in the cohort, 50% achieved one of the SPAR milestones, while 50% did
not achieve any of the SPAR milestones in a six year period. Examining the various
demographic, momentum points, assessment results, student service and instructional
strategies that were loaded into the Study #1 segmentation model as possible predictor
variables, successfully completing transfer level math loaded as the primary predictor
variable.
Unique to students who did not complete a transfer level math course, students who
completed 30 or more units loaded as a secondary predictor variable. Among the 578
students who did not complete transfer level math, statistically significant differences in
the percent of students who went on to achieve any milestone were observed between
students who completed 30 units (41%) and students who did not complete 30 units
(19%).
Identifying Possible Proactive Strategies
Table 1 identified possible momentum points, student service, and instructional
strategies that were statistically significantly related to achieving any milestone. Each of
these strategies represents possible proactive strategies that the college can implement
in order to increase the likelihood that students will achieve a milestone. Accordingly,
an Exhaustive CHAID segmentation model was generated for each statistically
significant result with either the number of years it took the student to reach the
momentum point or the number of times a student engaged in the behavior.
The results of the Exhaustive CHAID segmentation models are summarized below.
Each bullet represents a separate category of students. As an illustration, 446 students
completed their transfer level English course within two years, and of those 446
students, 72% or 319 achieved a milestone. In addition, 107 successfully completed
transfer level English within 3 to 5.5 years, and of those 107, 52% or 56 achieved a
29
milestone. Finally, 352 students completed transfer level English in six years or not at
all, and of those 352, 23% or 80 achieved a milestone.
Momentum Points

Number of Years to Complete Transfer Level Math and Achieve any Milestone
o 92% of students who successfully complete transfer level math within six
years achieve a milestone
o 27% of students who did not successfully complete transfer level math within
six years achieved a milestone

Number of Years to Complete Transfer Level English and Achieve any Milestone
o 72% of students who successfully complete transfer level English within
two years achieve a milestone
o 52% of students who successfully complete transfer level English from 3 to
5.5 years achieve a milestone
o 23% of students who successfully complete transfer level English in six years
or not at all achieve a milestone

Number of Years to Complete College Level Math and Achieve any Milestone
o 79% of students who successfully complete college level math within one
year achieve a milestone
o 64% of students who successfully complete college level math from 2 to 6
years achieve a milestone
o 55% of students who placed into college level math or higher achieve a
milestone
o 23% of students who do not successfully complete college level math within
six years achieve a milestone

Number of Years to Complete Basic Skills Math and Achieve any Milestone
o 60% of students who successfully complete basic skills math within four
years achieve a milestone
o 22% of students who successfully completed basic skills math from 5 to 6
years or not at all achieve a milestone
30

Number of Terms to Earn 15 Units and Achieve a Milestone
o 84% of students who earn 15 units in their first term achieve a milestone
o 60% of students who earn 15 units in 1 to 1.5 years achieve a milestone
o 37% of students who earn 15 units from 2 to 6 years achieve a milestone
o 25% of students who do not earn 15 units achieve a milestone

Number of Terms to Earn 30 Units and Achieve a Milestone
o 83% of students who earn 30 units in their first two years achieve a
milestone
o 57% of students who earn 30 units from 3 to 4 years achieve a milestone
o 25% of students who earn 30 units from 5 to 6 years or not at all achieve a
milestone
Student Service Strategies

Number of Times Student Met with a Counselor and Achieve a Milestone
o 59% of students who met with a counselor 6 or more times achieve a
milestone
o 42% of students who did not meet with a counselor or met with a counselor 1
– 5 times achieve a milestone
Instructional Strategies

Number of Times Students Visited the Tutoring Center and Achieve a Milestone
o 60% of students who visited the Tutoring Center 1 or more times achieve
a milestone
o 48% of students who did not visit the Tutoring Center achieve a milestone
31

Number of Times Students Enrolled Full-Time and Achieve a Milestone
o 89% of students who enrolled full-time in 5 or more semesters achieved a
milestone
o 66% of students who enrolled full-time in 3 to 4 semesters achieved a
milestone
o 43% of students who enrolled full-time in 2 semesters achieved a milestone
o 31% of students who enrolled full-time in none or 1 semester achieved a
milestone

Number of Times Students Enrolled in a Summer Semester and Achieve a
Milestone
o 73% of students who enrolled in 2 or more summer semesters achieved a
milestone
o 52% of students who enrolled in 1 summer semester achieved a milestone
o 41% of students who did not enroll in a summer semester achieved a
milestone
32
Transferring to a Four-Year Institution
Figure 10: CHC 2005-2006 First-Time College Students Six-Year Transfer Totals
by Momentum Point.
120%
Transferred
100%
80%
98% 98%
82%
78%
68%
52%
60%
40%
Did Not Transfer
91%
87%
74%
71%
76%
49%
44%
22%
20%
0%
Comp Tran
Math
Comp Tran
English
Comp CL Math
Comp CL
English
Comp Basic Comp 15 units Comp 30 units
Math
Figure 11: CHC 2005-2006 First-Time College Students Six-Year Transfer Totals
by Student Assessment Results.
100%
90%
93%
88%
Transferred
Did Not Transfer
80%
70%
61%
65%
60%
46%
50%
40%
58%
41%
34%
32%
25%
30%
20%
25%
10%
10%
0%
Assessed Prior to 2 or 3 Basic Skills
Start
Placements
2 or 3 CL
Placements
1 or more Tran
Placements
Tran Math
Placement
Tran English
Placement
33
Figure 12: First-Time College CHC Students Six-Year Transfer Totals by Student
Services Strategies.
100%
91% 90%
90%
Transferred
Did Not Transfer
80%
65% 64%
70%
60%
49%
50%
40%
37%
35% 37%
28%
30%
48%
37%
28% 29%
28%
23%
17%
20%
10%
0% 1%
0%
Orientation Coun First
Term
SEP First
Year
Updated
SEP
Saw
Applied for Received Denied Aid Accessed
Counselor
Aid
Aid
HWC
Figure 13: CHC First-Time College Students Six-Year Transfer Totals by
Instructional Strategies.
100%
90%
Transferred
Did Not Transfer
80%
88%
71%
70%
59%
60%
45%
50%
40%
30%
20%
16%
19%
21%
17%
10%
1%
0%
Accessed TC
CHC/PCD Course
Full-Time
2%
Learning
Community
Enrolled Summer
34
Table 2: Effect Size, 95% Confidence Intervals, and P-Values for Students
Transferring to a Four-Year Institution by Momentum Point, Assessment Results,
Student Service and Instructional Strategies.
No
Momentum Points
Completed Tran Math
Completed Tran Engl
Completed CL Math
Completed CL Engl
Completed Basic
Skills Math
Completed 15 Units
Completed 30 Units
Assessment
Assessed Prior to
First Start Date
2 or 3 Basic Skills
Placements
2 or 3 CL Placements
1 or More Tran
Placements
Tran Math Placement
Tran Engl Placement
Student Service
Strategies
Orientation
Counseling First Term
SEP First Year
Updated SEP
Saw Counselor
Applied for Aid
Received Aid
Denied Aid
Used HWC
Instructional Strategies
Tutoring Center
CHC/PCD Course
Full-Time
Learning Community
Summer
Yes
Effect Size & 95% CI
Lower & Upper ES
ES
Lower Upper
PValue
#
N
%
#
N
%
139
326
309
612
628
628
628
628
22.1
51.9
49.2
97.5
188
228
217
271
277
277
277
277
67.9
82.3
78.3
97.8
1.06
0.65
0.61
0.02
0.91
0.51
0.47
-0.12
1.21
0.79
0.76
0.17
< .001
< .001
< .001
.731
444
628
70.7
251
277
90.6
0.48
0.34
0.63
< .001
465
276
628
628
74.0
43.9
241
211
277
277
87.0
76.2
0.32
0.68
0.17
0.53
0.46
0.82
< .001
< .001
553
628
88.1
257
277
92.8
0.15
0.01
0.30
.033
239
520
46.0
84
259
32.4
-0.28
-0.43
-0.13
< .001
152
234
65.0
102
166
61.4
-0.07
-0.27
0.13
.475
212
618
34.3
158
275
57.5
0.48
0.34
0.62
< .001
63
152
612
611
10.3
24.9
69
112
273
273
25.3
41.0
0.43
0.36
0.28
0.21
0.57
0.50
< .001
< .001
235
403
146
25
563
306
304
6
182
628
628
628
146
628
628
628
628
628
37.4
64.2
23.2
17.1
89.6
48.7
48.4
1.0
29.0
97
180
78
22
253
101
101
1
77
277
277
277
78
277
277
277
277
277
35.0
65.0
28.2
28.2
91.3
36.5
36.5
0.4
27.8
-0.05
0.02
0.11
0.27
0.06
-0.25
-0.24
-0.07
-0.03
-0.19
-0.12
-0.03
0.00
-0.08
-0.39
-0.38
-0.21
-0.17
0.09
0.16
0.26
0.55
0.20
-0.11
-0.10
0.07
0.12
.490
.815
.124
.067
.433
.001
.001
.347
.717
120
105
448
10
280
628
628
628
628
628
19.1
16.7
71.3
1.6
44.6
44
58
243
3
163
277
277
277
277
277
15.9
20.9
87.7
1.1
58.8
-0.08
0.11
0.39
-0.04
0.29
-0.23
-0.03
0.25
-0.18
0.15
0.06
0.25
0.53
0.10
0.43
.246
.142
< .001
.553
< .001
35
Study #2: Students who Transferred to a Four-Year Institution
Study #2 examines students who transferred to a four-year institution (coded as “1”) and
students who did not transfer to a four-year institution (coded as “0”).
CART Segmentation Model Showing the Predictors of Transferring to a Four-Year
Institution
*Risk Estimate = .252, SE of Risk Estimate = .014, Improvement set to .01, Child Node set to 5% of Total N, Parent Node is
twice the Child Node.
36
Interpreting the Study #2 Decision Tree
In examining the decision tree created for Study #2, Node 0 indicates that among the
905 students in the cohort, 31% transferred to a four-year institution, while 69% did not
transfer to a four-year institution in a six year period. Examining the various
demographic, momentum points, assessment results, student service and instructional
strategies that were loaded into the Study #2 segmentation model as possible predictor
variables, successfully completing transfer level math loaded as the primary and only
predictor variable.
Identifying Possible Proactive Strategies
Table 2 identified possible momentum points, student service, and instructional
strategies that were statistically significantly related to achieving any milestone. Each of
these strategies represents possible proactive strategies that the college can implement
in order to increase the likelihood that students will transfer to a four-year institution.
Accordingly, an Exhaustive CHAID segmentation model was generated for each
statistically significant result with either the number of years it took the student to reach
the momentum point or the number of times a student engaged in the behavior.
The results of the Exhaustive CHAID segmentation models are summarized below.
Each bullet represents a separate category of students. As an illustration, 314 students
completed a transfer level math course within five years, and of those 314 students,
60% or 187 transferred. In addition, 591 successfully completed transfer level math
within 6 years or did not successfully complete transfer level math, and of those 591,
15% or 90 transferred to a four-year institution.
Momentum Points

Number of Years to Complete Transfer Level Math and Transfer to a Four-Year
Institution
o 60% of students who successfully complete transfer level math within five
years transfer to a four-year institution
37
o 15% of students who successfully complete transfer level math within six
years or who do not complete transfer level math transfer to a four-year
institution

Number of Years to Complete Transfer Level English and Transfer
o 48% of students who successfully complete transfer level English within
two years transferred to a four-year institution
o 14% of students who successfully complete transfer level English from 3 to 6
years or not at all transferred to a four-year institution

Number of Years to Complete College Level Math and Transfer
o 45% of students who successfully complete college level math within 2.5
years transferred to a four-year institution
o 16% of students who successfully completed college level math within 3 to 6
years or who did not successfully complete college level math within six years
transferred to a four-year institution

Number of Years to Complete Basic Skills Math and Transfer
o 38% of students who successfully complete basic skills math within 3.5
years transferred to a four-year institution
o 13% of students who successfully completed basic skills math from 4 to 6
years or not at all transferred to a four-year institution

Number of Terms to Earn 15 Units and Transfer
o 60% of students who earn 15 units in their first term transferred to a fouryear institution
o 36% of students who earn 15 units in 1 to 1.5 years transferred to a four-year
institution
o 17% of students who earn 15 units from 2 to 6 years or not at all transferred
to a four-year institution

Number of Terms to Earn 30 Units and Transfer
o 56% of students who earn 30 units in their first two years transferred to a
four-year institution
o 16% of students who earn 30 units from 3 to 6 years or not at all transferred
to a four-year institution
38
Instructional Strategies

Number of Times Students Enrolled Full-Time and Transfer
o 54% of students who enrolled full-time in 4 or more semesters transferred
to a four-year institution
o 31% of students who enrolled full-time in 3 semesters transferred to a fouryear institution
o 20% of students who enrolled full-time in 2 or less semesters transferred to a
four-year institution

Number of Times Students Enrolled in a Summer Semester and Transfer
o 46% of students who enrolled in 2 or more summer semesters transferred
to a four-year institution
o 27% of students who enrolled in 1 summer semester or less transferred to a
four-year institution
39
Transfer Prepared
Figure 14: CHC 2005-2006 First-Time College Students Six-Year Transfer
Prepared Totals by Momentum Point.
120%
Transfer Prepared
100%
80%
89%
99% 97%
95%
75%
94%
52%
91%
73%
71%
60%
40%
Not Transfer Prepared
91%
49%
42%
24%
20%
0%
Comp Tran
Math
Comp Tran
English
Comp CL Math
Comp CL
English
Comp Basic Comp 15 units Comp 30 units
Math
Figure 15: CHC 2005-2006 First-Time College Students Six-Year Transfer
Prepared Totals by Student Assessment Results.
100%
90%
92%
Transfer Prepared
89%
Not Transfer Prepared
80%
65% 63%
70%
60%
51%
50%
40%
44%
39%
35%
30%
35%
28%
22%
20%
13%
10%
0%
Assessed Prior to 2 or 3 Basic Skills
Start
Placements
2 or 3 CL
Placements
1 or more Tran
Placements
Tran Math
Placement
Tran English
Placement
40
Figure 16: First-Time College CHC Students Six-Year Transfer Prepared Totals by
Student Services Strategies.
100%
93%
90%
Transfer Prepared
89%
Not Transfer Prepared
80%
70%
61%
65%
60%
45% 45%
50%
40%
45% 45%
42%
37% 37%
25% 25% 26%
30%
20%
25%
19%
10%
1% 1%
0%
Orientation Coun First
Term
SEP First
Year
Updated
SEP
Saw
Applied for Received Denied Aid Accessed
Counselor
Aid
Aid
HWC*
*The relationship is stronger for non-occupational students (i.e. Students who did not successfully complete a clearly or advanced
occupational course). Specifically, 32% of non-occupational students who accessed the HWC were transfer prepared; whereas,
16% of non-occupational students who did not access the HWC were transfer prepared (p = .005, ES = .42). Conversely, 46% of
occupational students who accessed the HWC were transfer prepared; whereas, 39% of occupational students who did not access
the HWC were transfer prepared (p = .160, ES = .15). Accordingly, when non-occupational students access the HWC they are
statistically significantly and substantially more likely to be transfer prepared.
Figure 17: First-Time College CHC Students Six-Year Transfer Prepared Totals by
Instructional Strategies.
100%
95%
Transfer Prepared
90%
Not Transfer Prepared
80%
71%
66%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
44%
29%
24%
15%
16%
10%
1%
0%
Accessed TC
CHC/PCD Course
Full-Time
2%
Learning
Community
Enrolled Summer
41
Table 3: Effect Size, 95% Confidence Intervals, and P-Values for Students who are
Transfer Prepared by Momentum Point, Assessment Results, Student Service and
Instructional Strategies.
No
Momentum Points
Completed Tran Math
Completed Tran Engl
Completed CL Math
Completed CL Engl
Completed Basic
Skills Math
Completed 15 Units
Completed 30 Units
Assessment
Assessed Prior to First
Start Date
2 or 3 Basic Skills
Placements
2 or 3 CL Placements
1 or More Tran
Placements
Tran Math Placement
Tran Engl Placement
Student Service
Strategies
Orientation
Counseling First Term
SEP First Year
Updated SEP
Saw Counselor
Applied for Aid
Received Aid
Denied Aid
Used HWC
Instructional Strategies
Tutoring Center
CHC/PCD Course
Full-Time
Learning Community
Summer
Yes
Effect Size & 95% CI
Lower & Upper ES
ES
Lower Upper
P-Value
#
N
%
#
N
%
165
357
334
668
688
688
688
688
24.0
51.9
48.5
97.1
162
197
192
215
217
217
217
217
74.7
90.8
88.5
99.1
1.18
0.85
0.86
0.13
1.02
0.69
0.70
-0.02
1.34
1.00
1.02
0.28
< .001
< .001
< .001
.098
490
688
71.2
205
217
94.5
0.57
0.41
0.72
< .001
502
289
688
688
73.0
42.0
204
198
217
217
94.0
91.2
0.52
1.09
0.36
0.93
0.67
1.25
< .001
< .001
610
688
88.7
200
217
92.2
0.11
-0.04
0.27
.142
252
578
43.6
71
201
35.3
-0.17
-0.33
-0.01
.040
179
285
62.8
75
115
65.2
0.05
-0.17
0.27
.651
261
677
38.6
109
216
50.5
0.24
0.09
0.40
.002
84
188
671
669
12.5
28.1
48
76
214
215
22.4
35.3
0.28
0.16
0.13
0.00
0.43
0.31
.002
.051
252
450
170
33
614
309
308
6
169
688
688
688
170
688
688
688
688
688
36.6
65.4
24.7
19.4
89.2
44.9
44.8
0.9
24.6
80
133
54
14
202
98
97
1
90
217
217
217
54
217
217
217
217
217
36.9
61.3
24.9
25.9
93.1
45.2
44.7
0.5
41.5
0.00
-0.09
0.00
0.16
0.13
0.00
0.00
-0.05
0.38
-0.15
-0.24
-0.15
-0.15
-0.02
-0.15
-0.15
-0.20
0.22
0.16
0.07
0.16
0.47
0.28
0.16
0.15
0.11
0.53
.949
.277
.958
.308
.098
.949
.986
.547
< .001
102
112
486
10
299
688
688
688
688
688
14.8
16.3
70.6
1.5
43.5
62
51
205
3
144
217
217
217
217
217
28.6
23.5
94.5
1.4
66.4
0.36
0.19
0.58
-0.01
0.47
0.21
0.04
0.42
-0.16
0.31
0.51
0.34
0.73
0.15
0.62
< .001
.025
< .001
.939
< .001
42
Study #3: Students who were Transfer Prepared
Study #3 examines students who became transfer prepared within six years (coded as
“1”) and students who did not become transfer prepared within six years (coded as “0”).
CART Segmentation Model Showing the Predictors of being Transfer Prepared
*Risk Estimate = .240, SE of Risk Estimate = .014, Improvement set to .01, Child Node set to 5% of Total N, Parent Node is
twice the Child Node.
43
Interpreting the Study #3 Decision Tree
In examining the decision tree created for Study #3, Node 0 indicates that among the
905 students in the cohort, 24% were transfer prepared, while 76% were not transfer
prepared in a six year period. Examining the various demographic, momentum points,
assessment results, student service and instructional strategies that were loaded into
the Study #3 segmentation model as possible predictor variables, successfully
completing transfer level math loaded as the primary and only predictor variable.
Identifying Possible Proactive Strategies
Table 3 identified possible momentum points, student service, and instructional
strategies that were statistically significantly related to achieving any milestone. Each of
these strategies represents possible proactive strategies that the college can implement
in order to increase the likelihood that students will transfer to a four-year institution.
Accordingly, an Exhaustive CHAID segmentation model was generated for each
statistically significant result with either the number of years it took the student to reach
the momentum point or the number of times a student engaged in the behavior.
The results of the Exhaustive CHAID segmentation models are summarized below.
Each bullet represents a separate category of students. As an illustration, 296 students
completed a transfer level math course within 4 years, and of those 296 students, 53%
or 156 were transfer prepared. In addition, 609 successfully completed transfer level
math from 5 to 6 years or did not successfully complete transfer level math, and of
those 609, 10% or 61 were transfer prepared.
Momentum Points

Number of Years to Complete Transfer Level Math and be Transfer Prepared
o 53% of students who successfully complete transfer level math within four
years become transfer prepared
o 10% of students who successfully complete transfer level math within 5 to 6
years or not at all become transfer prepared
44

Number of Years to Complete Transfer Level English and be Transfer Prepared
o 39% of students who successfully complete transfer level English within
two years become transfer prepared
o 23% of students who successfully complete transfer level English from 2.5 to
5 years become transfer prepared
o 6% of students who successfully complete transfer level English in six years
or not all become transfer prepared

Number of Years to Complete College Level Math and be Transfer Prepared
o 40% of students who successfully complete college level math within 3
years become transfer prepared
o 24% of students who successfully completed college level math within 4 to 6
years become transfer prepared
o 20% of students who placed into college level math or higher become transfer
prepared
o 7% of students who do not complete college level math become transfer
prepared

Number of Years to Complete Basic Skills Math and be Transfer Prepared
o 34% of students who successfully complete basic skills math within 6 years
become transfer prepared
o 27% of students who place into college level or transfer level math become
transfer prepared
o 6% of students who do not complete basic skills math become transfer
prepared

Number of Terms to Earn 15 Units and be Transfer Prepared
o 47% of students who earn 15 units in their first term become transfer
prepared
o 32% of students who earn 15 units in 1 to 1.5 years become transfer
prepared
o 8% of students who earn 15 units from 2 to 6 years or not at all become
transfer prepared
45

Number of Terms to Earn 30 Units and be Transfer Prepared
o 48% of students who earn 30 units in within 2.5 years become transfer
prepared
o 28% of students who earn 30 units in 3 to 4 years become transfer prepared
o 5% of students who earn 30 units from 5 to 6 years or not at all become
transfer prepared
Instructional Strategies

Number of Times Students Enrolled Full-Time and be Transfer Prepared
o 54% of students who enrolled full-time in 4 or more semesters transferred
to a four-year institution
o 31% of students who enrolled full-time in 3 semesters transferred to a fouryear institution
o 20% of students who enrolled full-time in 2 or less semesters transferred to a
four-year institution

Number of Times Students Enrolled in a Summer Semester and be Transfer
Prepared
o 46% of students who enrolled in 2 or more summer semesters transferred
to a four-year institution
o 27% of students who enrolled in 1 summer semester or less transferred to a
four-year institution
46
Transfer Directed
Figure 18: CHC 2005-2006 First-Time College Students Six-Year Transfer Directed
Totals by Momentum Point.
120%
100%
Transfer Directed
Not Transfer Directed
93%
86%
99% 97%
93%
98%
80%
95%
68%
65%
60%
43%
38%
40%
20%
86%
35%
7%
0%
Comp Tran
Math
Comp Tran
English
Comp CL Math
Comp CL
English
Comp Basic Comp 15 units Comp 30 units
Math
Figure 19: CHC 2005-2006 First-Time College Students Six-Year Transfer Directed
Totals by Student Assessment Results.
100%
90%
93%
Transfer Directed
87%
Not Transfer Directed
80%
70%
70%
56%
60%
49%
50%
40%
53%
38%
35%
31%
26%
30%
20%
25%
9%
10%
0%
Assessed Prior to 2 or 3 Basic Skills
Start
Placements
2 or 3 CL
Placements
1 or more Tran
Placements
Tran Math
Placement
Tran English
Placement
47
Figure 20: First-Time College CHC Students Six-Year Transfer Directed Totals by
Student Services Strategies.
95%
100%
Transfer Directed
88%
90%
Not Transfer Directed
80%
64% 65%
70%
60%
44% 46%
50%
40%
39%
44% 45%
36%
27%
30%
23%
32%
28%
27%
16%
20%
10%
1% 1%
0%
Orientation Coun First
Term
SEP First
Year
Updated
SEP
Saw
Applied for Received Denied Aid Accessed
Counselor
Aid
Aid
HWC
Figure 21: First-Time College CHC Students Six-Year Transfer Directed Totals by
Instructional Strategies.
100%
92%
Transfer Directed
90%
Not Transfer Directed
80%
68%
70%
61%
60%
50%
42%
40%
30%
20%
23%
15%
21%
16%
10%
1%
0%
Accessed TC
CHC/PCD Course
Full-Time
2%
Learning
Community
Enrolled Summer
48
Table 4: Effect Size, 95% Confidence Intervals, and P-Values for Students who are
Transfer Directed by Momentum Point, Assessment Results, Student Service and
Instructional Strategies.
No
Momentum Points
Completed Tran
Math
Completed Tran
Engl
Completed CL Math
Completed CL Engl
Completed Basic
Skills Math
Completed 15 Units
Completed 30 Units
Assessment
Assessed Prior to
First Start Date
2 or 3 Basic Skills
Placements
2 or 3 CL
Placements
1 or More Tran
Placements
Tran Math
Placement
Tran Engl
Placement
Student Service
Strategies
Orientation
Counseling First
Term
SEP First Year
Updated SEP
Saw Counselor
Applied for Aid
Received Aid
Denied Aid
Used HWC
Instructional Strategies
Tutoring Center
CHC/PCD Course
Full-Time
Learning Community
Summer
Yes
Effect Size & 95% CI
Lower & Upper ES
ES
Lower Upper
PValue
#
N
%
#
N
%
40
573
7.0
287
332
86.4
2.74
2.55
2.92
< .001
245
573
42.8
309
332
93.1
1.19
1.04
1.33
< .001
217
553
573
573
37.9
96.5
309
330
332
332
93.1
99.4
1.33
0.19
1.18
0.05
1.47
0.32
< .001
.007
371
573
64.7
324
332
97.6
0.84
0.70
0.98
< .001
392
203
573
573
68.4
35.4
314
284
332
332
94.6
85.5
0.66
1.15
0.52
1.00
0.80
1.29
< .001
< .001
501
573
87.4
309
332
93.1
0.18
0.05
0.32
.008
228
469
48.6
95
310
30.6
-0.37
-0.51
-0.23
< .001
154
220
70.0
100
180
55.6
-0.30
-0.50
-0.10
.003
195
563
34.6
175
330
53.0
0.38
0.24
0.52
< .001
48
556
8.6
84
329
25.5
0.49
0.35
0.62
< .001
138
555
24.9
126
329
38.3
0.30
0.16
0.43
< .001
204
573
35.6
128
332
38.6
0.06
-0.07
0.20
.375
372
573
64.9
211
332
63.6
-0.03
-0.16
0.11
.679
134
22
502
262
260
5
152
573
134
573
573
573
573
573
23.4
16.4
87.6
45.7
45.4
0.9
26.5
90
25
314
145
145
2
107
332
90
332
332
332
332
332
27.1
27.8
94.6
43.7
43.7
0.6
32.2
0.09
0.28
0.24
-0.04
-0.03
-0.03
0.13
-0.05
0.01
0.10
-0.18
-0.17
-0.17
-0.01
0.22
0.55
0.37
0.09
0.10
0.10
0.26
.218
.049
.001
.551
.620
.655
.072
87
93
387
10
242
573
573
573
573
573
15.2
16.2
67.5
1.7
42.2
77
70
304
3
201
332
332
332
332
332
23.2
21.1
91.6
0.9
60.5
0.21
0.13
0.59
-0.07
0.37
0.07
-0.01
0.45
-0.21
0.24
0.34
0.26
0.72
0.06
0.51
.004
.075
< .001
.306
< .001
49
Study #4: Students who were Transfer Directed
Study #4 examines students who became transfer directed within six years (coded as
“1”) and students who did not become transfer directed in six years (coded as “0”).
CART Segmentation Model Showing the Predictors of becoming Transfer
Directed
*Risk Estimate = .094, SE of Risk Estimate = .010, Improvement set to .01, Child Node set to 5% of Total N, Parent Node is
twice the Child Node.
50
Interpreting the Study #4 Decision Tree
In examining the decision tree created for Study #4, Node 0 indicates that among the
905 students in the cohort, 37% were transfer directed, while 63% were not transfer
directed in a six year period. Examining the various demographic, momentum points,
assessment results, student service and instructional strategies that were loaded into
the Study #3 segmentation model as possible predictor variables, successfully
completing transfer level math loaded as the primary and only predictor variable.
Identifying Possible Proactive Strategies
Table 4 identified possible momentum points, student service, and instructional
strategies that were statistically significantly related to achieving any milestone. Each of
these strategies represents possible proactive strategies that the college can implement
in order to increase the likelihood that students will become transfer directed.
Accordingly, an Exhaustive CHAID segmentation model was generated for each
statistically significant result with either the number of years it took the student to reach
the momentum point or the number of times a student engaged in the behavior.
The results of the Exhaustive CHAID segmentation models are summarized below.
Each bullet represents a separate category of students. As an illustration, 327 students
completed a transfer level math course within six years, and of those 327 students, 88%
or 287 were transfer directed. In addition, 578 did not successfully complete transfer
level math, and of those 578, 8% or 45 were transfer directed. Forty-five students were
identified as transfer directed because of work that the student completed at another
college.
Momentum Points

Number of Years to Complete Transfer Level Math and be Transfer Directed
o 88% of students who successfully complete transfer level math within six
years become transfer directed
o 8% of students who did not complete transfer level math become transfer
directed
51

Number of Years to Complete Transfer Level English and be Transfer directed
o 60% of students who successfully complete transfer level English within
two years become transfer directed
o 37% of students who successfully complete transfer level English from 3 to
5.5 years become transfer directed
o 7% of students who successfully complete transfer level English in six years
or not all become transfer directed

Number of Years to Complete College Level Math and be Transfer directed
o 70% of students who successfully complete college level math within the
first year become transfer directed
o 58% of students who successfully completed college level math within 2 to
2.5 years become transfer directed
o 42% of students who successfully completed college level math within 3 to 5
years become transfer directed
o 37% of students who placed into college level math or higher become transfer
directed
o 6% of students who successfully completed college level math within 6 years
or do not complete college level math become transfer directed

Number of Years to Complete Basic Skills Math and be Transfer directed
o 63% of students who successfully complete basic skills math within 1 year
become transfer directed
o 46% of students who place into college level or transfer level math become
transfer directed
o 39% of students who successfully complete basic skills math from 2 to 5
years become transfer directed
o 4% of students who successfully complete basic skills math in 6 years or do
not complete basic skills math become transfer directed
52

Number of Terms to Earn 15 Units and be Transfer directed
o 69% of students who earn 15 units in their first term become transfer
directed
o 48% of students who earn 15 units in their second semester become transfer
directed
o 39% of students who earn 15 units from 2 to 3 years become transfer directed
o 24% of students who earn 15 units from 4 to 5.5 years become transfer
directed
o 9% of students who earn 15 units in 6 years or not at all become transfer
directed

Number of Terms to Earn 30 Units and be Transfer directed
o 69% of students who earn 30 units in within 2 years become transfer
directed
o 39% of students who earn 30 units in 3 to 5 years become transfer directed
o 12% of students who earn 30 units in 6 years or not at all become transfer
directed
Student Service Strategies

Number of Times Student Met with a Counselor and be Transfer Directed
o 48% of students who met with a counselor 6 or more times become
transfer directed
o 26% of students who met with a counselor 5 or less times become transfer
directed
Instructional Strategies

Number of Times Student Visited the Tutoring Center and become transfer
directed
o 47% of students who visited the Tutoring Center 1 or more times become
transfer directed
o 34% of students who did not visit the Tutoring Center become transfer
directed
53

Number of Times Students Enrolled Full-Time and be Transfer directed
o 78% of students who enrolled full-time in 5 or more semesters become
transfer directed
o 55% of students who enrolled full-time in 2 – 3 semesters become transfer
directed
o 26% of students who enrolled full-time in 2 semesters become transfer
directed
o 16% of students who did not enroll full-time or enrolled full-time in 1 semester
become transfer directed

Number of Times Students Enrolled in a Summer Semester and be Transfer
directed
o 59% of students who enrolled in 2 or more summer semesters became
transfer directed
o 37% of students who enrolled in 1 summer semester became transfer
directed
o 28% of students who did not enroll in a summer semester became transfer
directed
54
Earning a Degree or Certificate
Figure 22: CHC 2005-2006 First-Time College Students Six-Year Degree or
Certificate Totals by Momentum Point.
120%
100%
80%
Degree or Certicate
Did Not Earn Degree or Certificate
84%
64%
57%
60%
40%
100% 97%
84%
93%
90%
87%
75%
74%
53%
47%
31%
20%
0%
Comp Tran
Math
Comp Tran
English
Comp CL Math
Comp CL
English
Comp Basic Comp 15 units Comp 30 units
Math
Figure 23: CHC 2005-2006 First-Time College Students Six-Year Degree or
Certificate Totals by Student Assessment Results.
100%
90%
95%
Degree or Certicate
89%
Did Not Earn Degree or Certificate
80%
64% 63%
70%
60%
52%
50%
40%
43%
39%
36%
39%
28%
30%
20%
20%
14%
10%
0%
Assessed Prior to 2 or 3 Basic Skills
Start
Placements
2 or 3 CL
Placements
1 or more Tran
Placements
Tran Math
Placement
Tran English
Placement
55
Figure 24: First-Time College CHC Students Six-Year Degree or Certificate Totals
by Student Services Strategies.
95%
100%
90%
Degree or Certicate
89%
Did Not Earn Degree or Certificate
80%
65% 64%
70%
60%
49%
50%
40%
34% 37%
32%
30%
44%
48%
44%
42%
29%
23%
26%
19%
20%
10%
1% 1%
0%
Orientation Coun First
Term
SEP First
Year
Updated
SEP
Saw
Applied for Received Denied Aid Accessed
Counselor
Aid
Aid
HWC*
*The relationship is stronger for non-occupational students (i.e. Students who did not successfully complete a clearly or advanced
occupational course). Specifically, 29% of non-occupational students who accessed the HWC earned a degree or certificate;
whereas, 18% of non-occupational students who did not access the HWC earned a degree or certificate (p = .091, ES = .29).
Conversely, 49% of occupational students who accessed the HWC earned a degree or certificate; whereas, 39% of occupational
students who did not access the HWC earned a degree or certificate (p = .078, ES = 21). Accordingly, accessing the HWC is more
likely to have a stronger positive relationship with occupational than non-occupational students.
Figure 25: First-Time College CHC Students Six-Year Degree or Certificate Totals
by Instructional Strategies.
100%
90%
90%
Degree or Certicate
Did Not Earn Degree or Certificate
80%
74%
73%
70%
60%
50%
40%
44%
30%
30%
20%
23%
16%
17%
10%
1%
0%
Accessed TC
CHC/PCD Course
Full-Time
2%
Learning
Community
Enrolled Summer
56
Table 5: Effect Size, 95% Confidence Intervals, and P-Values for Students who
earned a Degree or Certificate by Momentum Point, Assessment Results, Student
Service and Instructional Strategies.
No
Momentum Points
Completed Tran
Math
Completed Tran
Engl
Completed CL Math
Completed CL Engl
Completed Basic
Skills Math
Completed 15 Units
Completed 30 Units
Assessment
Assessed Prior to
First Start Date
2 or 3 Basic Skills
Placements
2 or 3 CL Placements
1 or More Tran
Placements
Tran Math Placement
Tran Engl
Placement
Student Service
Strategies
Orientation
Counseling First
Term
SEP First Year
Updated SEP
Saw Counselor
Applied for Aid
Received Aid
Denied Aid
Used HWC
Instructional Strategies
Tutoring Center
CHC/PCD Course
Full-Time
Learning Community
Summer
Yes
Effect Size & 95% CI
Lower & Upper ES
ES
Lower Upper
PValue
#
N
%
#
N
%
232
756
30.7
95
149
63.8
0.71
0.53
0.89
< .001
429
756
56.7
125
149
83.9
0.57
0.39
0.75
< .001
401
734
756
756
53.0
97.1
125
149
149
149
83.9
100.0
0.64
0.19
0.46
0.01
0.82
0.36
< .001
.035
561
756
74.2
134
149
89.9
0.38
0.20
0.55
< .001
568
357
756
756
75.1
47.2
138
130
149
149
92.6
87.2
0.43
0.84
0.25
0.66
0.60
1.02
< .001
< .001
669
756
88.5
141
149
94.6
0.20
0.02
0.38
.025
275
645
42.6
48
134
35.8
-0.14
-0.32
0.05
.145
202
319
63.3
52
81
64.2
0.02
-0.23
0.26
.884
293
744
39.4
77
149
51.7
0.25
0.07
0.43
.007
102
737
13.8
30
148
20.3
0.18
0.00
0.36
.072
206
736
28.0
58
148
39.2
0.25
0.07
0.42
.011
281
756
37.2
51
149
34.2
-0.06
-0.24
0.11
.497
486
756
64.3
97
149
65.1
0.02
-0.16
0.19
.850
176
33
675
334
333
5
196
756
176
756
756
756
756
756
23.3
18.8
89.3
44.2
44.0
0.7
25.9
48
14
141
73
72
2
63
149
48
149
149
149
149
149
32.2
29.2
94.6
49.0
48.3
1.3
42.3
0.21
0.26
0.18
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.36
0.03
-0.06
0.00
-0.08
-0.09
-0.10
0.19
0.38
0.58
0.36
0.27
0.26
0.25
0.54
.032
.156
.045
.281
.338
.386
< .001
119
129
557
11
335
756
756
756
756
756
15.7
17.1
73.7
1.5
44.3
45
34
134
2
108
149
149
149
149
149
30.2
22.8
89.9
1.3
72.5
0.38
0.15
0.39
-0.01
0.58
0.20
-0.03
0.21
-0.19
0.40
0.55
0.33
0.56
0.17
0.75
< .001
.123
< .001
.916
< .001
57
Study #5: Students who earned a Degree or Certificate
Study #5 examines students who earned a degree or certificate within six years (coded
as “1”) and students who did not earn a degree or certificate within six years (coded as
“0”).
CART Segmentation Model Showing the Predictors of Earning a Degree or
Certificate
*Risk Estimate = .094, SE of Risk Estimate = .010, Improvement set to .01, Child Node set to 5% of Total N, Parent Node is
twice the Child Node.
58
Interpreting the Study #5 Decision Tree
In examining the decision tree created for Study #5, Node 0 indicates that among the
905 students in the cohort, 17% earned a degree or certificate, while 84% did not earn a
degree or certificate in a six year period. Examining the various demographic,
momentum points, assessment results, student service and instructional strategies that
were loaded into the Study #5 segmentation model as possible predictor variables,
completing 30 units loaded as the primary and only predictor variable.
Identifying Possible Proactive Strategies
Table 5 identified possible momentum points, student service, and instructional
strategies that were statistically significantly related to achieving any milestone. Each of
these strategies represents possible proactive strategies that the college can implement
in order to increase the likelihood that students will earn a degree or certificate.
Accordingly, an Exhaustive CHAID segmentation model was generated for each
statistically significant result with either the number of years it took the student to reach
the momentum point or the number of times a student engaged in the behavior.
The results of the Exhaustive CHAID segmentation models are summarized below.
Each bullet represents a separate category of students. As an illustration, 327 students
completed a transfer level math course within six years, and of those 327 students, 88%
or 287 were earn a degree or certificate. In addition, 578 did not successfully complete
transfer level math, and of those 578, 8% or 45 were earn a degree or certificate. Fortyfive students were identified as earning a degree or certificate because of work that the
student completed at another college.
Momentum Points

Number of Years to Complete Transfer Level Math and Earned a degree or
certificate
o 29% of students who successfully complete transfer level math in six years
of less earned a degree or certificate
o 9% of students who did not complete transfer level math earned a degree or
certificate
59

Number of Years to Complete Transfer Level English and be Earned a degree or
certificate
o 24% of students who successfully complete transfer level English within
3.5 years earned a degree or certificate
o 7% of students who successfully complete transfer level English in 4 to 6
years or not all earned a degree or certificate

Number of Years to Complete College Level Math and Earned a degree or
certificate
o 25% of students who successfully complete college level math in three
years earned a degree or certificate
o 7% of students who successfully completed college level math in 4 to 6 years
or do not complete college level math earned a degree or certificate

Number of Years to Complete Basic Skills Math and Earned a degree or
certificate
o 26% of students who successfully complete basic skills math in 1 to 3.5
years earned a degree or certificate
o 18% of students who place into college level or transfer level math or
successfully complete a basic skills math course in their first semester earned
a degree or certificate
o 7% of students who successfully complete basic skills math in 4 to 6 years or
do not complete basic skills math earned a degree or certificate

Number of Terms to Earned 15 Units and be Earned a degree or certificate
o 31% of students who earned 15 units in their first term earned a degree or
certificate
o 20% of students who earned 15 units within 3.5 years earned a degree or
certificate
o 5% of students who earned 15 units in 4 to 6 years or not at all earned a
degree or certificate
60

Number of Terms to Earned 30 Units and be Earned a degree or certificate
o 29% of students who earned 30 units within 4 years earned a degree or
certificate
o 5% of students who earned 30 units in 5 to 6 years or not at all earned a
degree or certificate
Student Service Strategies

Number of Times Students Met with a Counselor and Earned a degree or
certificate
o 40% of students who met with a counselor 17 or more times earned a
degree or certificate
o 27% of students who met with a counselor 8 to 16 times earned a degree or
certificate
o 16% of students who met with a counselor 6 to 7 times earned a degree or
certificate
o 7% of students who met with a counselor 5 or less times earned a degree or
certificate

When controlling for occupational students, students utilizing the Health and
Wellness Center was not related to earning a degree or certificate
Instructional Strategies

Number of Times Students Visited the Tutoring Center and earned a degree or
certificate
o 27% of students who visited the Tutoring Center 1 or more times earned
a degree or certificate
o 14% of students who did not visit the Tutoring Center earned a degree or
certificate
61

Number of Times Students Enrolled Full-Time and be Earned a degree or
certificate
o 34% of students who enrolled full-time in 4 or more semesters earned a
degree or certificate
o 18% of students who enrolled full-time in 3 semesters earned a degree or
certificate
o 8% of students who enrolled full-time in 2 or fewer semesters earned a
degree or certificate

Number of Times Students Enrolled in a Summer Semester and be Earned a
degree or certificate
o 32% of students who enrolled in 2 or more summer semesters earned a
degree or certificate
o 20% of students who enrolled in 1 summer semester earned a degree or
certificate
o 9% of students who did not enroll in a summer semester earned a degree or
certificate
62
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