The Analysis of Environmental Population Capacity for the Yunyang County
Based on the Ecological Footprint
Jia-jun He1, Xue-jun Wang2
1
the College of Economy and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
the College of Economy and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
(hjj1618@163.com.cn)
2
Abstract-The great change have happen to the residents
life and economic of reservoir region as the successful
completion
of
three gorges dam project
and
the
impoundment of reservoir. The sustainable development of
the residents and regional economic become research
hotspot on reservoir area. Among them, the analysis of
population and environment is one of the key in the
three gorges dam reservoir area. Based on the ecological
footprint method, the article discuss population
environmental capacity of Yunyang County in Chongqing,
establish ecological footprint model, analysis and forecast
environmental population capacity by the data of Yunyang
County. At last, the paper draws out useful policy
suggestions.
Keywords -The ecological footprint, the ecological
carrying capacity, the ecological deficit
I.
INTRODUCTION
In the stage the three gorges dam project from
completion into the normal operation, the main tasks of the
project also are transformed from construction to operation
management. The formation of reservoir results in population
migration and changes. At the same time, the quality and
climate conditions of different land are changing along
with reforestation of the national implementation and the
project of natural forest protection. Local residents also
work from traditional agricultural production into various
kinds, such as processing industry and work out etc. Now
there is problem that need analyze and understand
urgently whether or not the environment can support the
need of resident’s survival and development in the present
and long-term. So it is the effective guarantee to complete
the following work of the three gorges dam project and
keep the sustainable development of reservoir area that
establish appropriate model of environmental population
capacity, track and forecast the trend of change on the
environmental population capacity.
II. THE ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT
The professor Morris put forward the concept of
ecological footprint who works in Canada British
Columbia University. The notion shows that the
population within designated unit (a person, a city, a state
or all mankind) needs how many biological productive
lands and the water area to produce needful resources and
absorb deuterogenic waste in the current technology
conditions. William and Wackernagel explained the
concept from different aspects in 1996 later: a biological
productive region space which can continue to provide
resources or absorb waste[1].
The ecological footprint transforms resources
everyone consumes into the global united productive area.
Through the calculation of difference on regional
ecological footprint between the overall supply and
overall demand (ecological deficit or surplus), there can
reflect the different of ecological environment status
accurately in the world. The ecological footprint not only
can reflect personal or the local resource consumption
intensity, but can reflect the supply capacity of regional
resources and the total resource consumption[2]. At the
same time it reveals the ecological threshold for human
survive. Through comparing demand of human and
supply of nature in the same unit, it can measure the
sustainable development with regional comparability. In
Applications, the ecological footprint depends on the
population scale, the material life level, the technical
conditions and ecological productivity. The results of the
assessment make the press and magnitude of biosphere
clear in every time and space where be analyzed.
III.THE MODEL OF ENVIRONMENTAL
POPULATION CAPACITY BASED ON
ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT
The calculation of environmental population capacity
base on two simple facts: there can keep most of the
consumption of resources and most of the waste; these
resources and most waste can are converted to biological
productive land.
The calculation of the environmental population
capacity is divided into two parts, which conclude
calculation of the ecological footprint and ecological
carrying capacity. When ecological carrying capacity is
greater than the ecological footprint, the difference is said
as ecological surplus, express the resources the per capita
takes up is still in permitted range of the ecological
carrying capacity. When ecological footprint is greater
than ecological bearing capacity, the difference is said as
ecological deficit, express resources the per capita takes up
is more than ecological carrying capacity. The ecological
deficit shows that human load of the area exceed its
ecological capacity. For meeting the demand in the
existing level to the life consumption of population, this
area either import lack resources from outside region to
balance the ecological footprint, or consume natural
capital stock to make up for the deficiency.
In the calculation of the ecological footprint, the
biological productive area considerate mainly six types:
fossil energy land, farmland, forest land, meadow,
construction land and waters. Because ecological
productivity is different at variety of biological productive
land types, the calculation must uses the world average
productivity
to
convert
consumption
and
absorptiveamount of waste into biological productive area.
So there introduce equilibrium factor to make biological
productive land of different types into equivalent
ecological productivity, that can make ecological footprint
aggregated.
The equilibrium factor is the ratio of biological
productivity of per unit area with some kind of biological
productive land and average productive land in World. It
is a added coefficient in process of equalizing different
land type. with the development of technology and
different of management level, or the effects such as
environmental pollution and soil degradation, the land
productivity of different types will change, the ratio
between the productive forces and the world (that is,
equilibrium factor) can also be different. So the year
researched is different, the equilibrium factor isn’t
unanimous completely. According with research of
Wackernagel to the changes of equilibrium factor on six
kinds of biological productive land from 1961 to 1999, in
the nearly 40 years, equilibrium factors only exist minor
changes in all kinds of biological productive land of the
world. Thus, the paper adopts the research result of
Wackernagel in 1997, which is shown as table I.
TABLE I
THE EQUILIBRIUM FACTOR
Types of land
the equilibrium factor
farmland
2.8
meadow
0.5
forest land
1.1
waters
0.2
construction land
2.8
fossil energy land
1.1
So the computation formula of ecological
footprint[3]:
P  I  Ei
ef   R j  Ai   R j  i i
Yi  N

（i34,5,6 j）（）
The computation formula of the ecological
footprint in total area:

EF  N  ef （）

In formula, the ef means ecological footprint of per
capita (hm2/people); the Rj expresses the equilibrium
factor; the Ai shows component of ecological footprint; the
i means the type of consumer goods; the j expresses the
types of biological productive land; the Pi means average
production ability of the first i kind of consumer goods;
the Ii shows the inputs or imports quantity of the first i
kind of consumer goods; the Ei means output or exports
quantity of the first i kind of consumer goods; the Yi
shows the world average production of the first i kind of
consumer goods; the EF means the total ecological
footprint for regional population (hm2); the N means total
area population.
In the calculation of the ecological bearing capacity,
there need introduce yield factors. The yield factor is said
productivity coefficient also. It is a parameter which can
convert ecological productive land into comparability for
various countries and areas. In the calculation of
ecological carrying capacity, because the productivity has
big difference in different countries or regions even same
type unit land, the actual area of biological production land
is not compared directly in different countries or regions,
which needs to be regulated. The difference of yield factor
can be calculated by comparing local production in
different countries or regions with average yield of the
world.
According to the growth trend of the cultivated land
yield factor of Chongqing, which is calculated by the
world average yields as the benchmark, there structure
prediction model[4][5]. The model is shown as formula 3.
y  1.3587e 0.0496x
(R2=0.89)
(3)

In formula, the y means yield factors of farmland in
the year predicted; the x expresses the year change and
make 2001 to 1. The grown rate of other type land yield
factor is calculated by refer to the grown rate of farmland.
So the yield factors forecasted in 2015 and 2020 are
shown as table II.
TABLE II
THE YIELD FACTOR
Types of land
the yield factor
（2015）
the yield factor
（2020）
farmland
2.86
3.66
meadow
1.87
2.4
forest land
0.39
0.5
waters
2.06
2.64
construction land
2.86
3.66
fossil energy land
0
0
So the computation formula of ecological carrying
capacity:
ec  A j  R j  Y j
（j=1，2，3，4，5，6）（4）
The calculation of regional ecological bearing
capacity:
EC  N  ec （）

Y  1514.6e 0.1287x (R2=0.99)
In formula, the Y means per capita GDP (Yuan); the
x shows year change and make 2000 year to 1. According
with it, the paper forecast per capita GDP of Yunyang
County, namely 11874 Yuan in 2015, 22598 Yuan in
2020. According to the formula 6, the per capita ecological
footprint is drawn out for Yuntang County in 2015 and
2020, which is show as table III.
In formula, the ec means ecological bearing of per
person; the Aj shows the component of per capita
productive biological area; the Rj means equilibrium
factor; the Yj express yield factors; the EC means regional
ecological carrying capacity (hm2); the j shows the land
types.
IV. THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL
POPULATION CAPACITY FOR YUNYANG
COUNTY
The paper uses the related data of Yunyang County
to analysis environmental population capacity according
with the model above. Taking statistical yearbook of the
Yunyang County as the main data sources, the research
calculate and forecast ecological footprint of the county in
2008, 2015 and 2020, at same time, the paper apply land
use data as data source to calculate the ecological carrying
capacity of the year.
The calculation of the ecological footprint can be
divided into three parts: the biological resources
consumption, energy consumption and trade adjustment of
export and import[6]. Because of the lack of domestic trade
details of import and export, the part of trade adjustment
cannot be calculated, so the paper only calculate the
biological
resources
consumption
and
energy
consumption. Considering the statistical differences, lack
of biological resources consumption data and actual
situation, the research supposes it is consistent basically in
biological resources yield and the biological resources
consumption in YunYang County. Therefore, there
calculate with the biological resources yield instead of
consumption.
Using 2009 statistical yearbook of Yunyang County,
the research apply the model of environmental population
capacity to calculate the per capita the ecological footprint
in 2008. The scholar Xiexing[7] researched ecological
footprint of Chongqing city from 1997 to 2006 and draw
out the relation about the ecological footprint per capita
and GDP per capita, as shown below.
(7)
TABLE III
THE PER CAPITA ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT OF YUNYANG COUNTY
YEAR
per capita ecological footprint
2008
1.1651 hm2
2015
1.4874 hm2
2020
2.0352 hm2
The model of population prediction use geometric
progression[9][10], as shown below.
P  P0 (1  k ) n （）

In formula, the P means the population in the year
forecasted (2015 and 2020) ; the P 0 shows the population
of benchmark year(2000); the K expresses the natural
population growth rate (5.75 ‰ ); the N means the
differences in predicted year and benchmark year (15 and
20).
Combining with the data of land use, yield factors
and population, the per capita ecological carrying capacity
is calculated for Yunyang County in 2008, 2015 and 2020.
The results are shown as table IV.
TABLE IV
THE PER CAPITA ECOLOGICAL CARRYING CAPACITY OF YUNYANG COUNTY
YEAR
2008
the per capita ecological carrying capacity
0.6049
2015
1.0326
2020
1.4783
So the per capita ecological deficit can be calculated
by the per capita ecological carrying capacity and the per
capita ecological footprint for Yunyang County in 2008,
2015and 2020, shown as table V.
ef  0.88071  0.05109 * GDP （R2=0.93）（6）
In formula, the ef means per capita ecological
footprint (hm2). According to the per capita GDP growth
trend of YunYang County from 2000 to 2008, the paper
structure prediction model[8], as shown below.
Table V
THE PER CAPITA ECOLOGICAL DEFICIT IN YUNYANG COUNTY
YEAR
2008
2015
2020
ecological
footprint /per
capita
ecological
carrying
capacity/per
capita
the ecological
deficit or
surplus /per
capita
1.1651 hm2
1.4874 hm2
2.0352 hm2
0.6049 hm2
1.0326 hm2
1.4783 hm2
-0.5602 hm2
-0.4547 hm2
-0.5569 hm2
V. THE CONCLUSION AND POLICY
SUGGESTIONS
The analysis above shows that population
environmental capacity model established has good
application and the population environment is the overload
in Yunyang County. The development model of the
Yunyang County is in an unsustainable position.
Therefore, it is imperative to protect and improve the
ecological environment more positively. In the course of
research, the author finds and summarize following
several aspects to improve.
1)Controlling the transition strictly of existing
cultivated land, expanding the grassland. According to
dynamic monitoring of the changes of land use, the
cultivated land area and the area of the grass reduce
gradually and the construction land is increasing
gradually, that leads directly to the ecological footprint
low in Yunyang County. Thus, in the future of economic
development plan, there need control the land convertion
strictly and increase the shrub and grass[11].
2) Strengthening comprehensive management of the
small watershed, improving soil erosion conditions. There
need combine the engineering measures, biological
measures and cultivation measures in the process of soil
and water loss management, closing the economic,
ecological and social benefits together.
3)Managing water point source, non-point source
pollution and make full use of water resources. The policy
must keep the prevention mainly, supplemented by
management in the future development, make sure of the
water resources to get rational use.
4)Preventing ecological environment pollution in the
rural. There must prevent and treat the pollution of the
rural ecological environment by control of domestic
sewage, chemical fertilizers, etc.
REFERENCES
[1] Wackernagel M,Onisto I,Bello P, “National natural capital
accounting with the ecological footprint concept”,
Ecological Economic, 1999, 29(3), pp. 375-390.
[2] Wackernagel M, Monfreda C, etc，“Ecological footprint
time series of Austria, the Philippines, and South
Koreafor1961-1999:
comparing
the
conventional
lapproachto an actual land area approach”, Land Use
Policy, 2004, (21)，pp. 261-269
[3] Helmut H, Karl H B, Fridolin k, “How to calculate and
interpret ecological footprints for long periods of time: the
case of Austria 1926-1995”, Ecological Economics, 2001,
38, pp. 24-45.
[4] Kathryn B B, Richard J B, Ross C, et al, “New
methodology for the ecological footprint with an
application to the New Zealand economy “, Ecological
Economics, 1998, 27, pp. 149-160.
[5] Mccool s, “planning for sustainable nature dependent
tourism development: the limits of acceptable change
system”, Tourism Recreation Research, 1994, 19 (2), pp.
51-55.
[6] Jiang li, etc. “The quantitative analysis of the impact factor
for ecological footprint”, Resources and environment in the
Yangtze River basin, 2005, 14 (2), pp. 238-243.
[7] Xing Xie, Huachao Wu,“The analysis of sustainable
development status based on the ecological footprint for
Chongqing in past decade”, Chongqing industry and
commerce university press: Western forum,2008,18(5), pp.
43-47.
[8] Luo Lu Qin, etc, “the establishing and analysis of the
dynamic prediction model based on ecological footprint”,
Resources and environment in the Yangtze River basin,
2008, 17 (3), pp. 440-440
[9] Yuanquan Chen, Wangsheng Gao. “the compensative
quantitative research of ecological based on ecological
economics theory and method”, The system engineering
theory and practice, 2007, (4) : 165-170.
[10] YangkaiZhong, etc, “The theory and method of ecological
footprint analysis”, Progress of earth science, 2000, 15 (6) :
630-636.
[11]Sujuan Wanyan, Yiwang, “Externality theory and ecological
compensation”, soil and water conservation, in china,
2007,(12) : 17-21.