Actualité scientifique
Scientific news
March 2011
In the coming decades, the
West African countries
could benefit from a
demographic window of
opportunity to reduce their
poverty. The arrival of
160 million young people
on the labour market
between 2010 and 2030
could accelerate economic
growth. These countries
could take advantage of
this “demographic
dividend”, which the
emerging countries have
been doing for 40 years.
On condition that they
lower their fertility rates, are
still the highest in the
world, with an average of
five children per woman.
That would enable them to
reduce the number of
economically non-active
people being supported
for each active individual.
An IRD researcher asserts
this in a review published
recently by the Agence
française de
développement (AFD),
concerning a far-reaching
survey1 conducted in
12 West African countries2:
family planning and
promotion of contraception
are some of the main keys
to sustainable economic
growth. Yet to arrive at
such a situation, these
countries must assign 3 to
5 times the means
currently given over to such
a policy. Will they be able
to manage this population
turning point successfully?
Africa
at a population turning point
© IRD / J.-P. Guengant
N° 369
Actualidad cientifica
Controlling fertility: an essential step to enable West African countries to pursue their demographic transition and become emergent in their turn.
Several countries of West Africa -like Burkina
Faso, Mali, or Ghana- have regained economic
growth since the mid 1990s, with annual rates of
4 to 6%. But with their high population, this advance
is still insufficient to meet societies’ health and
education needs, reduce deficiencies in food and
nutritional security and reduce poverty, which still
affects between one and two-thirds of these
countries’ inhabitants.
Fall in fecundity,
a key to economic improvement
The West African countries will only be able to
emerge economically if they seize a demographic
window of opportunity by reducing their fertility, as
the present emerging countries have done from the
1970s. This observation is stressed by an IRD
researcher in the report recently published by the
AFD (French Agency for Development), concerning
a far-reaching survey in 12 countries of the region2.
If rapid population growth continues*, a substantial
rise in size of the active population can be expected
in the next 20 years. The arrival on the West African
labour markets of a high number of young people
–increasing from an annual 6 million per year in
2010 to nearly 10 million in 2010 – could prove to
be disastrous if economic growth does not arrive
and jobs are not created. However, this could
become an advantage if a fall in fertility led to a
reduction in the number of people supported
(children and elderly people) per active individual
(15-64). With a fall in this ratio, also termed
“dependency rate”, the active sections of society
could cut their expenditure, essentially devoted to
the needs of their children, and devote a large slice
of their income to savings and productive investments. If they did this, they would help stimulate
economic growth.
For further information
Accelerate the population
transition: an urgent objective
Reducing fertility to accelerate the population transition and hence reduce the dependency rate is therefore essential for a sustainable economic growth. In
fact, between 1970 and 2000, most developing
regions, like East and South-East Asia, where population transitions have been rapid, have benefited
from the demographic dividend. Most that is, except
for Sub-Saharan Africa, indeed because the birth
rates there are still very high. They remain the
highest in the world, with an average of more than
5 children per woman.
Consequently, in West Africa now, the ratio is still
one non-active for every active individual, giving a
dependence rate of 100%. However, with means
3 to 5 times greater than those currently allocated to
family planning, the countries of the region could
halve this ratio in 20 years’ time, to reach levels of
dependence close to those now observed in the
emerging countries.
Priorities dictated
by emergency situations
Up to now, the financial and human means attributed
to population control have been lacking in Africa
owing to a low level of political commitment and the
shortage of data and research in this field. In fact, in
the face of major public health problems the policies, plans, programmes and strategies implemented over the course of the past 20 years have
had to concentrate on prevention and health care
measures for people with HIV/AIDs and costs
assured for pregnancy, births and obstetrical and
neonatal emergencies.
In parallel with such operations, access to family
planning services and promotion of the use of
contraception have not been sufficiently encouraged. Currently, only 10 to 20% of African women
living in a couple have recourse to a form of contraception. Nevertheless, there is a strong demand for
family planning: between 30 and 60% of these
women wish to have access to such a service.
Contact
Jean-Pierre GUENGANT,
Director emeritus of research at
the IRD
guengant@hotmail.fr
UMR « Développement et sociétés »
(IRD/Université Paris I PanthéonSorbonne)
Address
IEDES
Jardin tropical de Paris
45 bis avenue de la Belle Gabrielle
94736 Nogent-sur-Marne
Development does not boil down simply to birth
control, but the acceleration of the population transition thanks to the rise in use of contraception –which
answers needs women express– is one of the most
important keys which could enable West Africa to
take up the socio-economic challenges the region
will have to confront. It must be recalled that half of
the strong economic growth observed in East and
South-East Asia between 1970 and 2000 can be
attributable to demographic changes prompted by
governments. Like in these regions, the West African
countries must in the next 10 years greatly increase
the resources devoted to family planning in order to
stabilize the number of births from now to 2030 and
hope to benefit from the demographic dividend. Will
they in their turn be able to manage this turning point
successfully?
References
Jean-Pierre GuenganT, I.C.I. « Comment bénéficier du dividende démographique ? Le dividende démographique
au centre des trajectoires de développement dans les pays de l’UEMOA, ainsi
qu’en Guinée, au Ghana, en Mauritanie
et au Nigeria » Fiches pays et synthèse
régionale, AFD, 2011.
Key words
Africa, population, fertility, development
*See Scientific news sheet n°282:
Sub-saharan Africa: the population emergency
Jean-Pierre Guengant and Gaëlle Courcoux
Translation – Nicholas FLAY
1. The survey « Comment bénéficier du dividende démographique? La démographie au centre des trajectoires de développement
dans les pays de l’UEMOA, en Guinée, en Mauritanie, au Ghana et Nigeria », produced with the assistance of the AFD, was
coordinated by Initiatives Conseil International, Burkina Faso.
Coordination
Gaëlle Courcoux
Information and Culture
Department
Tel.: +33 (0)4 91 99 94 90
Fax: +33 (0)4 91 99 92 28
fichesactu@ird.fr
2. These are eight countries of the de Economic Community of West African States– UEMOA (Benin, Burkina-Faso, Ivory Coast,
Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal, Togo), Guinea, Ghana, Mauritania Nigeria. See the general review and country reports
on www.conferenceouagapf.org et www.afd.fr
* Did you know ?
Press office
Cristelle DUOS
Tel: +33 (0)4 91 99 94 87
presse@ird.fr
The population of Sub-Saharan Africa, an estimated 2010 to 860 million inhabitants, could be between
1.5 and 2 billion by 2050.
Indigo,
IRD photo library
Daina Rechner
Tel: +33 (0)4 91 99 94 81
indigo@ird.fr
Online access to IRD photos concerning this
news sheet from:
www.indigo.ird.fr
© IRD / J.-P. Guengant
© IRD / J.-J. Lemasson
Graphic design and layout
Laurent Corsini
Multiplying the resources allocated to family planning could lead to a reduction of the average number of children per woman to three or four by 2030.
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