ENERGY TRANSITIONS TOWARD A LOW-CARBON
FUTURE
Dr. Mark Barteau
Director, Energy Institute, University of Michigan
Energy Transitions for a Low-Carbon Future
www.energy.umich.edu
Twitter: @MichEnergy
Projecting Future Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions
Energy Consumption = (Population) X (GDP per capita) X (Energy consumed per $ of GDP)
Standard of living
Energy intensity of the economy
Projecting future energy consumption involves projecting rates of population growth, economic
growth and rate of energy efficiency improvement of the economy
Carbon Emissions = (Energy Consumption) X (Carbon emitted per unit of energy consumed)
Carbon intensity of energy supplies
Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions
IEA (2012)
US EIA (2009)
450 ppm scenario
Center for Climate and Energy Solutions http://www.c2es.org/facts-figures/international-emissions/historical
Emissions Trajectories
https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/scoreboard/scoreboard-science-and-data/
Projecting Future Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions
Energy Consumption = (Population) X (GDP per capita) X (Energy consumed per $ of GDP)
Standard of living
Energy intensity of the economy
Projecting future energy consumption involves projecting rates of population growth, economic
growth and rate of energy efficiency improvement of the economy
Carbon Emissions = (Energy Consumption) X (Carbon emitted per unit of energy consumed)
Carbon intensity of energy supplies
Each of the components represents opportunities to “bend the curve”
Each is the product of billions of decisions of individuals, communities, companies, governments…
Additional Megatrends
Urbanization
•  Around three-quarters of the world’s population will live in cities by mid-century
Economic Development and Access to Energy
•  Three-quarters of the global population uses just 10 percent of the world’s
energy today. 1 billion people lack access to electricity, and 3 billion cook their
food over dung, wood, and charcoal.
US Energy Strategies – Mapping “All of the Above”
USDOEQuadrennialTechnologyReview(2011)
US Energy Strategies – Transportation
1.  Broaden the base of transportation fuels
2.  Increase renewable supplies for transportation including cross-over
from stationary generation
3.  Increase efficiency
Gasoline-only vehicles without hybrid technologies
decline as a share of new vehicle sales
U.S. light car and truck sales, in millions
EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Estimated Test Fuel Economy for Average New Vehicles
WWPD? *
* What will people do?
•  Response to stress relief has been to buy bigger, less efficient vehicles
•  Response to stress increase?
From the University of Michigan Energy Survey:
What would you do if the cost of gasoline became unaffordable?
Will increased urbanization increase demand for alternative modes of transportation?
Another Coming Megatrend: Automated Vehicles
Potential impacts of connected/automated/autonomous
vehicles on energy consumption and emissions
Vehicle Lightweighting
+
Efficient driving
+
Congestion mitigation
+
Platooning
+
Amenable to electrification
+
Higher speeds
-
Vehicle miles traveled
?
The Ultimate Challenge
How do we bring about a convergence of
•  Energy Transitions
•  Societal Transitions
•  Mobility Transitions
At levels from the individual, to the community, to the nation,
and beyond to bend the curve faster to a low-carbon world?
We need to
•  Take better advantage of existing technologies
•  Plan with low carbon targets in mind
•  Invest in enabling infrastructure
•  Anticipate and adapt to human behavior