Understanding Economics BUSINESS CYCLES

Understanding Economics

BUSINESS CYCLES

Copyright © 2002 by McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

Economic Growth

Economic growth can be defined in two ways

 the percentage increase in an economy’s total output (e.g. real GDP) is most appropriate when measuring an economy’s overall productive capacity the percentage increase in per capita output (e.g. per capita real GDP) is most appropriate when measuring living standards

Copyright © 2002 by McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

Canada’s Economic Growth (a)

30 000

20 000

10 000

5 000

4 000

3 000

2 000

0

1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1999

Copyright © 2002 by McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

Economic Growth in Canada

Before World War I (1870-1914),

Canada’s per-capita output (in 1992 dollars) more than doubled from

$2143 to $4896.

In the interwar period (1914-1945), the country’s per-capita real output almost doubled from $896 to $8953.

In the postwar period (1945-), percapita real output more than tripled to

$27982 by 1999.

Copyright © 2002 by McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

Economic Growth and Productivity

Growth in per capita output is closely associated with growth in labour productivity which depends on factors such as

 the quantity of capital

 the quality of labour technological progress

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Business Cycles (a)

The business cycle is the cycle of expansions and contractions in an economy

 an expansion is a sustained rise in real output a contraction is a sustained fall in real output a peak is the point in the business cycle at which real output is at its highest a trough is the point in the business cycle at which real output is at its lowest

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The Business Cycle

Inflationary gap

Peak a b

CONTRACTION EXPANSION

Long-Run Trend of Potential Output c

Recessionary gap d

Trough

Time

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Contractions

A contraction

 is usually caused by a decrease in

Aggregate Demand (AD) magnified by the reactions of both households and businesses, who spend less due to pessimism about the future

 may be a recession, which is a decline in real output for six months or more may be a depression, which is a particularly long and harsh period of reduced real output

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Expansions

An expansion is usually caused by an increase in AD magnified by the reactions of both households and businesses as they spend more due to more optimistic expectations of the future

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Expansion and Contraction

240

160 e

Potential

Output f

AS

AD

0

0

AD

1

700 725 730

Real GDP (1992 $ billions)

Copyright © 2002 by McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

Inflationary

Gap

Recessionary

Gap