Planet Earth: Owner’s Manual
“Global Warming”
Anthropogenic Climate Change
Increase in atmospheric CO2
from 1958 to 2004
Why does the curve abruptly rise and fall each year?
Countries ranked by total carbon dioxide emissions from
burning fossil fuels - 2006
6,103,493,000 mt
5,752,289,000 mt
Countries ranked by per capita carbon dioxide
emissions from burning fossil fuels - 2006
304,059,724
1,325,639,982
China has 4X the population of the U.S. but produces the same amount of
CO2 as the U.S.
Countries ranked by total greenhouse gas emissions
from deforestation and fossil fuels - 2000
Vostok Station, Antarctica
Ice Core
If current trends in fossil fuel
consumption continue, by
2100, the concentration of
CO2 in the Earth’s
atmosphere will likely
double relative to its
maximum in the last 400,000
years.
We are performing an
unprecedented experiment
on our planet’s atmosphere
and climate!
End of “Little Ice Age”
What factors “force” climate?
Greenhouse gas emissions
Natural (e.g. volcanic eruptions)
Anthropogenic (e.g. fossil fuel emissions)
Albedo (% of surface covered by snow and
ice.
Solar output
Orbital cycles (Milankovitch Cycles)
Computer model of global temperature change for the
past 150 years - Natural Forcing Only
Comparison of observed temperature anomalies and modeled anomalies predicted
under varying "forcing" scenarios. Source: IPCC, Third Assesment Report, Climate
Change 2001.
Computer model of global temperature change for the
past 150 years - Anthropogenic Forcing Only
Comparison of observed temperature anomalies and modeled anomalies predicted
under varying "forcing" scenarios. Source: IPCC, Third Assesment Report, Climate
Change 2001.
Computer model of global temperature change for the past
150 years - Both Natural and Anthropogenic Forcing
Comparison of observed temperature anomalies and modeled anomalies predicted
under varying "forcing" scenarios. Source: IPCC, Third Assesment Report, Climate
Change 2001.
Other Evidence for Anthropogenic Forcing
of Climate
Satellite measurements show that the troposphere is heating
up but the stratosphere is cooling, indicating more
interception of heat radiated from the surface of the Earth.
Melting of alpine glaciers, permafrost, arctic pack ice, ice
shelves in Antarctica and Greenland, as well as flow rates of
glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland, may be unprecedented
for the Holocene (last 10,000 years).
Area of winter snow cover is decreasing in the northern
hemisphere.
Animals, plants, and diseases are shifting their historical
ranges. Timing of migrations and flowering is changing.
Climate change is already
underway. We have
already measured
changes in:
Temperature
Sea level
Snow melt
Drought intensity
Storm Intensity
Heat waves
Mid-latitude winds
This is not a prediction.
These changes are
happening now.
IPCC WGI Fourth Assessment Report, 2007
Why “Global Warming” is good science
The mechanism is reasonable - the greenhouse effect is
quantifiable and based on well understood physics.
Anthropogenic additions of greenhouse gases to the
atmosphere are measurable and profound - and increasing
every year.
Climate should be warming given the changes we are making
to the atmosphere. Burden of proof should rest with the
skeptics!
Evidence of warming - historical and geological records show
that climate is warming. Satellite observations confirm
warming. Predicted effects of warming are being observed
- ocean temps are rising, ice is melting.
NO evidence that climate has been stable for the last 50
years or that observed climate change is “natural”.
Why is climate
change bad?
We are heavily invested in the climate
status quo.
We grow food where it rains (or where we have an abundance
of fresh water).
We have extensive population and infrastructure located near
present sea level (app. 30% of global population).
We have infrastructure appropriate to traditional climate.
Our economies are based on traditional biological resources.
Our insurance industry assesses risk based on past trends.
Adapting to change is costly, both in money and lives.
The more rapid and extreme the change, the higher the cost.
Why is preventing climate change NOT a conservative issue?
It is all about preserving our way of life as it is.
Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast:
Science, Impacts, and Solutions
Union of Concerned Scientists, July 2007
Urban areas face increased numbers of extreme heat days
• Increase in heat-related fatalities
• Increase in air pollution and related respiratory problems such as asthma
• Disproportionately impacts the poor and elderly
December - June
July - January
Projected Changes in Precipitation in a Warmer World
• American Southwest - drier
• American Northeast - wetter
• Northern Africa - drier
• Europe - more seasonally wetter and drier (monsoonal)
• Canada / Siberia - wetter
• Amazon - drier
Alpine glaciers and continental ice sheets are
melting at increasing rates
1992
2002
Extent of seasonal ice melting on the
Greenland ice sheet.
http://cires.colorado.edu/steffen/
References
* Dyurgerov, Mark B. (2002). "Glacier Mass Balance and Regime: Data of Measurements and Analysis". Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, Occasional Paper 55.
* Dyurgerov, Mark B. and Mark F. Meier (2005). "Glaciers and the Changing Earth System: A 2004 Snapshot". Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, Occasional Paper 58.
* J. Oerlemans (2005). "Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records". Science 308 (5722): 675 - 677.
Collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf,
31 Jan – 7 Mar 2002:
• Antarctic Peninsula on left, melt
ponds on ice shelf on right
• first melt phase: 800 square km
• second melt phase: 2600
square km (~half of Rhode
Island)
• paleoceanographic research
suggests this area has never
been ice-free in the last 10,000
years (Domack et al., 2005,
Nature)
MODIS images from NASA's Terra
satellite, National Snow and Ice Data
Center, University of Colorado, Boulder.
Minimum Extent of
Summer Sea Ice
1979
Minimum Extent of
Summer Sea Ice
2003
Projected changes in the extent of winter snow cover, Northeast U.S.
Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast:
Science, Impacts, and Solutions
Union of Concerned Scientists, July 2007
Coastal Flooding Will Increase in
Extent and Frequency as Sea Level
Continues to Rise
•
•
Current 100 year flood event in
NYC will occur on average once
every 10 years by the end of the
21st Century.
Large sections of Lower
Manhattan and Queens could flood
during relatively moderate
hurricanes and nor’easters.
Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast:
Science, Impacts, and Solutions
Union of Concerned Scientists, July 2007
Coastal Flooding Will Increase in
Extent and Frequency as Sea Level
Continues to Rise
•
Barrier Islands such as Fire Island,
Long Beach, and the Jersey Shore
could face major flooding on a
semi-annual basis by 2100.
Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast:
Science, Impacts, and Solutions
Union of Concerned Scientists, July 2007
The Insurance Industry is Retreating from the Coast
Due to heavy losses associated with recent hurricanes
such as Katrina, insurers are reluctant to issue policies
to coastal homeowners:
• 2006 - Allstate drops coverage for 1000s of homes
along the Middle Atlantic and Northeast coast.
• State Farm no longer insures properties within 1 mile
of the ocean (formerly, the cutoff was 1000 ft).
• 2006 - Hingham Mutual Group cancels 9000
homeowner policies on Cape Cod.
Commercial Fisheries are Threatened
By Climate Change
•
Warming ocean waters will cause
commercially important species to
go regionally extinct (for example,
cod - see diagram to right).
•
Marine species fail to breed or
become vulnerable to disease in
warmer waters.
1999 - massive die-off of lobster in
Long Island Sound due to outbreak
of disease correlates with
unusually elevated water
temperature that summer.
Lobster have not recovered to
anywhere near their previous
levels and most experts agree that
the lobster fishery is unlikely to
ever recover .
•
•
Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast:
Science, Impacts, and Solutions
Union of Concerned Scientists, July 2007
Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: Science,
Impacts, and Solutions
Union of Concerned Scientists, July 2007
Fire Ants - currently restricted to
southern states, but moving
north!
http://hortipm.tamu.edu/pestprofiles/chewing/fantsdawn/fantsdawn.html
Spruce Bark Beetles
•
Kenai Peninsula, Alaska: Spruce
bark beetles have destroyed
nearly 4 million acres of mature
forest on the peninsula.
•
Warmer weather allows the
beetles to mature and breed faster,
completing a two-year life cycle in
just one year.
•
In cooler times on the peninsula,
the forests and the beetles lived in
balance, but today, the trees are
unable to withstand the explosion
in the beetle population.
http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/alaska/kenai.html
Spruce tree die off - Kenai Peninsula, Alaska
Climate Change is Causing Extinctions
•
74 species of frog in Costa Rica
have gone extinct in the last two
decades.
•
Numbers of species extinctions
correlate with temperature for the
previous year. Hot years see
elevated extinctions in the
following year.
•
Warmer weather favors growth of
a fungus that attacks the skin of
these tropical frogs.
Extinctions do not correlate with El
Nino changes in sea surface
temperature (drives fluctuations in
rainfall).
•
Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic
disease driven by global warming
J. Alan Pounds et al.
Nature 439, 161-167(12 January 2006)
In the face of climate change, what are our
options?
Adaptation: adjust to changes as they happen.
Prevention: try to slow and / or mitigate climate change to
reduce the need for adaptation.
Reduce the production of greenhouse gases particularly CO2
The Big Question:
Which is more costly prevention now or adaptation later?
How do we reduce CO2 emissions?
More efficient distribution
Producer
• Non-Carbon energy sources
solar, wind, tidal, geothermal
nuclear
• Carbon sequestration
Invest in new technology
Payoff?
Carbon taxes and emissions caps
create economic incentives
Energy
Consumer
• Reduce consumption
• Reduce waste
Invest in new technology
Payoff - lower energy costs