Dr. Karowe
BIOS 5440: Ecological Consequences of Global Change
Fall 2010
PATTERNS OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE
I. TEMPERATURE
A. Global trends
B. Temporal and spatial trends
C. Seasonal trends
D. Length of growing season
E. The past decade
F. 2009
G. 2010 (thus far)
II. PRECIPITATION
A. Long-term trends
B. Recent trends
C. Severe rainstorms
D. Droughts
CAUSES OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE
I. CHANGES IN RADIATIVE FORCING AGENTS
A. Natural forcing agents
1. Solar irradiance
2. Volcanoes
B. Greenhouse gasses
C. Anthropogenic aerosols
D. Land use change
II. ATTRIBUTION OF RECENT TEMPERATURE CHANGE: SEPARATING NATURAL VARIATION FROM
ANTHROPOGENIC INFLUENCE
A. Correlation analyses
B. Modeling studies
C. Radiative forcing measurements/estimates
Dr. Karowe
BIOS 5440
Fall 2010
Patterns and Causes of Recent Climate Change
page 2
PATTERNS OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE
I. TEMPERATURE
A. Global temperature has risen ~0.8 oC in the last 130 yr (Fig. 1)
1. Eight of the nine warmest years on record have occurred since 2001
a. 2005 was the warmest year on record,
followed by 2009, 1998*, 2003, 2002,
2007, 2004, 2006, and 2001 (NASA
2010, CRU 2007)
b. NOAA calculates global temperatures
slightly differently, so has a different
ranking (NOAA 2010)
Figure 1. Average global temperature 1880-2009,
relative to the 1951-1980 mean. The 5-year
running average is shown in red. (NASA 2010;
see also Brohan et al. 2006; Lugina et al. 2006;
Smith and Reynolds 2005; Hansen et al. 2001)
B. Temporal and spatial trends
1. Two major periods of warming (~1900-1940 and ~1976-present), separated by a period of
non-significant cooling (~1941-1975) (Fig. 1)
2. The global rate warming has been increasing over the last 155 years (Table 1)
a. global rate over land for 1979-2005 was 5 times the rate for 1850-2005
b. global rate over oceans for “
was 3 times the rate for
“
c. land has warmed more than oceans
d. Northern Hemisphere has warmed more than Southern Hemisphere
Table 1: Hemispheric and global trends for land surface temperature and sea
surface temperature since 1850, in oC per decade. All trends are significant at p <
0.01 except those in italics, which are significant at p < 0.05.
(IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 3)
1850-2005
1901-2005
1979-2005
Global
Land
Ocean
0.054 ± 0.016
0.039 ± 0.011
0.073 ± 0.020
0.067 ± 0.014
0.244 ± 0.071
0.134 ± 0.046
Northern Hemisphere (NH)
Land
Ocean
0.063 ± 0.015
0.040 ± 0.014
0.081 ± 0.026
0.068 ± 0.025
0.317 ± 0.066
0.188 ± 0.097
Southern Hemisphere (SH)
Land
Ocean
0.036 ± 0.024
0.038 ± 0.012
0.062 ± 0.017
0.068 ± 0.013
0.127 ± 0.066
0.091 ± 0.045
Dr. Karowe
BIOS 5440
Fall 2010
Patterns and Causes of Recent Climate Change
page 3
3. Since 1901, statistically significant warming over most of the world’s surface (Fig. 2)
Figure 2. Global
temperature trends since
1901 (left, in oC per century)
and since 1979 (right, in oC
per decade). White crosses
indicate areas of statistically
significant warming, grey
indicated insufficient data.
(IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 3)
a. century-long trends:
i. greatest warming in Asian interior, northern North America, southeastern Brazil,
and some mid-latitude ocean regions of the SH
ii. slight cooling south of Greenland, in the southeastern US, Bolivia, and Congo basin
b. trends 1979-2005:
i. greatest warming in higher latitudes of NH
ii. slight cooling in the southern ocean
C. Seasonal trends (Fig. 3)
1.
Western Hemisphere: warming
greatest in winter
Eastern Hemisphere: warming
greatest in spring
Figure 3. Global seasonal temperature trends
since 1979. White crosses indicate areas of
statistically significant warming. (IPCC AR4
WG1 Chapter 3; Smith and Reynolds 2005)
D. Length of growing season
1.
Since 1950, the number of frost-free days has increased in ~75% of mid-latitude NH regions
where data are available (Fig. 4)
Figure 4. Change in frost days from 1950-1995
(days/decade). Black lines enclose regions where trends
are significant at p < 0.05. (DEFRA 2002, 2004; IPCC AR4
WG1 Chapter 3; see also Menzel & Fabian 1999)
Dr. Karowe
2.
BIOS 5440
Fall 2010
Patterns and Causes of Recent Climate Change
page 4
Biggest change at 55-65o north latitude (Fig. 6)
a. 1982-1991: ~ +7 days
b. 1991-1992: ~ -5 days (why?)
c. 1992-1999: ~ +2.5 days
Figure 6. Variation in the normalized difference vegetation
index (NDVI), an indication of growing season length, for
1982-1991 (a), 1991-1992 (b), 1992-1999 (c), and all three
time periods (d). (Tucker et al. 2001)
3.
About ⅔ of lengthening due to earlier onset of
spring, about ⅓ due to later onset of fall
E. The past decade (January 2000 to December 2009) was the warmest decade on record
1.
Largest anomalies in Arctic and Antarctic
Peninsula (Fig. 7)
2.
Global temperature was 0.54°C above the
20th century average (NOAA 2010)
a. shattered the 1990s value of 0.36°C
Figure 7. Temperature anomaly for the past
decade (2000-2009) relative to mean global
temperatures from 1951-1980. Data are based on
>1,000 meteorological stations around the world,
satellite observations of sea surface temperature,
and Antarctic research station measurements.
(GISS 2010a)
F. NASA says 2009 was the 2nd warmest year on record (NOAA says 5th warmest) (see Fig. 1)
1.
Temperature anomaly again greatest in Arctic and Antarctic Peninsula (Fig. 8a)
2.
Overall, warming greatest at high northern latitudes (Fig. 8b)
Figure 8. Temperature anomaly for 2009 relative to mean global temperatures from 1951-1980 for the globe (a,
left; grey areas indicate insufficient data) and as a function of latitude (b, right). (GISS 2010b)
Dr. Karowe
BIOS 5440
Fall 2010
Patterns and Causes of Recent Climate Change
3.
2009 was the warmest year on record in the Southern Hemisphere (Fig. 9)
4.
Near-record global temperatures despite:
a. unusually cool December in much of North
America
i. contiguous 48 states cover only 1.5
percent of the world’s area
a. La Niña during first few months (but El Niño
for most of year)
b. deep minimum in 11-yr solar cycle
page 5
Figure 9. Hemispheric average temperature 18802009, relative to the 1951-1980 mean. (NASA 2010)
G. So far (Jan-Aug), 2010 is tied with 1998 as the warmest year on record (Fig. 10)
1.
1998 was a super El Niño year
Figure 10. Global, ocean, and land
temperature anomalies for 2010 through
August, relative to the 1900-1999 mean.
(NOAA NCDC 2010, Smith et al. 2008,
Smith and Reynolds 2005)
II. PRECIPITATION
Background
1. For every oC rise, the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases by ~7%
2. Precipitation is harder to measure than temperature
a. rain gauge measurements of snow and light rain are affected by wind speed
b. radar and satellites can only measure instantaneous rate
c. few measurements over oceans
A. Long-term trends
1. No significant global trend from 1900-2009
a. global increase to 1950s, decrease to
early 1990s, then increase (Fig. 10)
Figure 10. Global annual land precipitation anomalies
(mm) 1900-2009 relative to the 1961-1990 average. (NOAA
NCDC 2010; see also IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 3)
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Fall 2010
Patterns and Causes of Recent Climate Change
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2. Long-term regional trends (1900-2005) are in some cases significant (Fig. 11a)
a. increases over most of North America, except for southwestern US and northwest Mexico
i. increase also over parts of temperate zone Asia and western Australia
b. strongest decreases over western Africa and the Sahel
c. decrease also over Chile and parts of the western coast of South America
B. Recent trends (1979-2005) in annual precipitation are significant for fewer regions (Fig. 11b)
Figure 11. Trend of annual land
precipitation amounts (% per
century) for 1901-2005 (left) and
1979-2005 (right). The
percentage is based on the
means for the 1961-1990 period.
(Grey areas: insufficient data;
black + marks: trends significant
at p<0.05.) (IPCC AR4 WG1
Chapter 3)
C. Globally, 2009 was about average (Fig. 12)
1. Drier than average conditions across Australia,
southern South America, and southern Asia
2. Wetter than average in most of Europe, eastern
half of U.S., and parts of Brazil and Asia
Figure 12. Precipitation anomalies for 2009, relative to
1961-1990 average. (NOAA NCDC 2010)
D. No compiled data available for Jan-Aug 2010
1. During the June-August 2010, above average
precipitation over, e.g., Pakistan and central U.S.
2. Below average precipitation over, e.g., South
America and eastern U.S. (Fig. 13)
Figure 13. Precipitation anomalies for June-Auguse 2010,
relative to 1961-1990 average. (NOAA NCDC 2010)
E. Severe rainstorms have become more common throughout
the contiguous U.S. (Fig. 14)
1. Similar but less pronounced trend in China (Zhai et al.
2005)
Figure 14. Trend in frequency of severe precipitation events from
1948-2006. (Madsen and Figdor 2007; Trenberth et al. 2003)
Dr. Karowe
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Fall 2010
Patterns and Causes of Recent Climate Change
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F. Droughts have become more common since 1900
1. Globally, Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) increased slightly from 1900-1949, then
dramatically from 1950-2002 (Fig. 15)
Figure 15. Linear trends of PDSI (change per
50 yr) during 1900-49 (top) and 1950-2002
(bottom). Red areas indicate drying, blue
areas indicate wetting. (Dai et al. 2004)
Figure 16. Percent of the total land area (60o S to 75o
N) in very dry (PDSI <3.0; thin lines), very wet (PDSI
>3.0; medium lines), and very dry or wet (thickest lines
at the top) conditions from 1950 to 2002. Dashed
lines indicate changes that would have occurred
without global warming (i.e. due to precipitation alone).
(Dai et al. 2004)
2. After 1950, much better data
a. greatest drying over central/eastern Asia, Canada, and Sahel
b. note change in US during this time
3. Since 1950, area in at least “severe” drought (PDSI < 3.0) more than doubled (12% → 30% of
Earth’s surface) (Fig. 16)
a. most of change is after 1975 (why?)
b. “wet” areas (PDSI > 3.0) declined by 5%
Dr. Karowe
BIOS 5440
Fall 2010
Patterns and Causes of Recent Climate Change
page 8
CAUSES OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE
I. Changes in Radiative Forcing Agents
A. Natural forcing agents
1. Solar irradiance increased over the last 400 years, as Earth came out of “Little Ice Age” (Fig.
1)
a. however, solar irradiance decreased since 1978 (Fig. 2)
Figure 1. Total solar irradiance (in W/m2) over the last
400 years, by three separate reconstructions; sunspot
numbers are also shown. (Lean 2010; see also Lean
2000, Wang et al. 2005, Tapping et al. 2007).
Figure 2. Total solar irradiance (TSI) since
1978. Colors indicate measurements by
different instruments. (Lockwood and Fröhlich
2008; see also Lockwood and Fröhlich 2007,
Lockwood 2008, 2010).
2. Volcanism has increased in the last 50
years (Fig. 3)
Figure 3. Estimates of stratospheric sulphate aerosols
formed in the aftermath of explosive volcanic eruptions
that occurred between 1860 and 2000. (Sato et al. 1993;
Ammann et al. 2003; IPCC AR4 WGI Chapter 2)
B. Greenhouse gasses (the main anthropogenic forcing agent)
1. Naturally occurring greenhouse gases (GHGs) include H2O vapor, CO2, CH4, N2O (nitrous
oxide), and tropospheric ozone (O3).
2. All GHGs have increased exponentially over the last 150 or so years (Fig. 4)
a. CO2 from burning of fossil fuels, waste, and
biomass, and from land use change
b. CH4 from swamps, landfills, livestock, and
production of fossil fuels
c. N2O from agriculture, industry, and burning of
waste and fossil fuels
Figure 4. Change in GHG concentrations over the past
two millennia (IPCC AR4 WGI Chapter 2)
Dr. Karowe
BIOS 5440
Fall 2010
Patterns and Causes of Recent Climate Change
page 9
3. GHGs differ greatly in their global warming potential (GWP) (Fig. 5)
Figure 5. GWP of most
major greenhouse
gasses. Uncertainties in
the radiative forcing of the
majority of the gases are
approximately ± 10%.
(EPA 2002)
Gas
Lifetime
(years)
Global Warming Potential
20 yr
100 yr
500 yr
5-200
1
1
1
Methane ( CH4)
12*
62
23
7
Nitrous oxide (N2O)
115*
275
296
156
45-1,700
6,30010,200
4,60014,000
1,60016,300
Carbon dioxide ( CO2)
CFCs ( CClxFx)
C. Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are highest in U.S., Europe, and SE Asia (Fig 6a)
1. Since 1985, have been decreasing in U.S. and Europe, but increasing in SE Asia (Figs. 6b)
Figure 6a. Anthropogenic SO2 emission inventory
Figure 6b. Change in SO2 emissions 1985-2000
for 1985 (mgS/m2/day).
(mgS/m2/day).
(Both figures from Manktelow et al. 2007; see also Yu et al. 2006; Hansen et al. 2005; Stier et al. 2006;
Reddy et al. 2005; Takemura et al. 2005; IPCC AR4 WGI Chapter 2)
D. Land-use change (mostly conversion of forests to agricultural land)
1. In 1750, 8-9 million km2 (6-7% of the global
land surface) was under cultivation or pasture
(Fig. 7)
2. By 1990, croplands and pasture covered 4551 million km2 (35-39% of global land)
3. Land-use change added ~1.4 Gt/yr of carbon
to the atmosphere in the 1980s, ~ 1.6 Gt/yr in
the 1990s
Figure 7. Anthropogenic modifications of land cover from
1750 to 1990. (IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 2, Klein
Goldewijk 2001)
Dr. Karowe
BIOS 5440
Fall 2010
Patterns and Causes of Recent Climate Change
page 10
II. Attribution of Recent Temperature Change
A. Correlation analyses
1.
Suggest that, in the early part of the 20th century, CO2 replaced the sun as the major driver of
Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperatures (Fig. 8)
Figure 8. Correlations from 1610-1995 between NH
temperature (top) and reconstructed solar irradiance,
atmospheric CO2 levels, and volcanic dust veil index (DVI).
Bottom panel: evolving multivariate correlation of NH series
with the three forcings. The time axis denotes the center of a
200-year moving window. Horizontal dashed lines indicate
strength of positive correlations (90%, 95%, 99% significance
levels), while the horizontal dotted line indicates strength of
negative correlations (90% significance). (Mann et al. 1998)
B. Modeling studies
1.
Models with only natural forcings do a poor job of replicating recent climate change since
1900, but those with both natural and anthropogenic forcings do a good job (Fig. 9)
a. models with only natural forcings generally predict cooling
b. true at regional scales also (see IPCC AR4 WGI SPM)
Figure 9. Temperature changes relative to
the corresponding average for 1901-1950
(°C) from 1906 to 2005 over the Earth’s
continents, as well as the entire globe, global
land area and the global ocean (lower
graphs). The black line indicates observed
temperature change, while the colored
bands show the combined range covered by
90% of recent model simulations. Red
indicates simulations that include natural and
human factors, while blue indicates
simulations that include only natural factors.
Dashed black lines indicate decades and
continental regions for which there are
substantially fewer observations. (IPCC AR4
WGI SPM; see also Stott et al. 2006; Brohan
et al. 2006; IPCC AR4 WGI Chapter 9)
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Patterns and Causes of Recent Climate Change
page 11
C. Direct measurements and/or estimates of radiative forcing agents indicate a dominant effect of
anthropogenic greenhouse gasses (Fig. 10)
Figure 10. Global average radiative forcing (RF) estimates and ranges in 2005 for anthropogenic carbon
dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and other important agents and mechanisms, together with
the typical geographical extent (spatial scale) of the forcing and the assessed level of scientific understanding
(LOSU). The net anthropogenic radiative forcing and its range are also shown. Volcanic aerosols contribute an
additional natural forcing but are not included in this figure due to their episodic nature. (IPCC AR4 WGI SPM)
1.
Best estimates (all in W/m2):
changes in solar irradiance: + 0.12
changes in CO2 levels: + 1.66
changes in CH4, N2O, and halocarbon levels: + 0.98
changes in tropospheric O3 levels: + 0.35
changes in aerosol direct and indirect effects: - 1.2
2.
Of all positive (warming) radiative forcing, the sun accounts for ~4% (0.12/3.11)
3. Considering all anthropogenic effects, net radiative forcing is 1.6 W/m2
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Patterns and Causes of Recent Climate Change
page 12
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