BIOS 5440 Course Overview 2010
Dr. Karowe
BIOS 5440: Ecological Consequences of Global Change
Fall 2010
Overview of Topics
1. Earth’s Climate System (Dr. Karowe)
A. What is “climate”? (Figure 1)
B. What are the major determinants of Earth’s climate? (Figure 2)
Figure 1. A depiction of the climate at
Cannes, France. (Le Mas Candille
2003)
Figure 2. Schematic view of the components of Earth’s climate system,
their processes and interactions. (IPCC AR4 WGI Chapter 1)
2. Earth’s Climate History (Dr. Karowe)
A. How do we infer past climates?
B. What are the patterns of climate change over the last 420,000 years? (Figure 3)
C. What are the patterns of climate change over the last 1,300 years? (Figure 4)
Figure 3. 800,000 year time series of CO2
(top), CH4 (middle) and temperature (bottom)
from a site near Vostok. (Luthi et al. 2008,
Brook 2008)
Figure 4. A 1,300 year temperature record from North
American tree rings. (IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 6)
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BIOS 5440 Course Overview 2010
3. Patterns and Causes of Recent Climate Change (Dr. Karowe)
A. What are the spatial and temporal patterns of warming? (Figure 5
B. How is climate affected by changes in the concentration of greenhouse gasses and other
radiative forcing agents? (Figure 6)
Figure 5. Hemispheric average temperature
1880-2009, relative to the 1951-1980 mean.
(NASA 2010)
Figure 6. Change in climate forcing agents over the past 250
years, with corresponding estimates of confidence. (IPCC
AR4 WGI Summary for Policymakers)
4. Observed Responses of Species to Climate Change (Dr. Karowe)
A. Range shifts (Figure 7)
B. Altered phenology (Figure 8)
C. Other observed responses
Figure 7. Range expansion by the bush cricket,
Conocephalus discolor in Great Britain. Blue,
recorded between 1961–1987; yellow, first recorded
between 1988–1996; red, first recorded between
1997–1999. (Thomas et al. 2001)
Figure 8. Relation between annual median laying
date of the chaffinch, Fringilla coelebs and mean of
March-April temperatures (r =-0.76, P <0.001).
Laying date is numbered such that day 110 is 20
April and day 121 is 1 May. (Crick & Sparks 1999)
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BIOS 5440 Course Overview 2010
5. Global Climate Scenarios and Predictions (Dr. Karowe)
A. IPCC SRES Scenarios
B. Predicted global temperature change (Figure 9)
C. Predicted changes in other climate variables (Figure 10)
Figure 9. Multi-model global averages of surface
warming (relative to 1980–1999) for the scenarios A2,
A1B and B1. Colored shading denotes ±1 standard
deviation. The grey bars at right indicate the best
estimate (solid line within each bar) and the likely range
for all six SRES scenarios. (IPCC AR4 WG1 Summary
for Policymakers)
Figure 10. Multi-model mean changes in summer
precipitation using the A1B scenario, for the period
2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999. Stippling denotes
areas where predictions are more consistent (Wang
2005; Emori and Brown 2005; Rowell and Jones 2006;
Neelin et al. 2006; IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 10).
6. Effects of Climate Change on Plant Communities and Climate Envelope Modeling (Dr. Karowe)
A. What are the predicted changes in global vegetation cover? (Figure 11)
B. How is climate envelope modeling used to make predictions about species’ fates? (Figure 12)
Figure 11. Projected appreciable changes in
terrestrial ecosystems by 2100 relative to 2000,
using the HadCM3 model running SRES
scenario A2. Changes are considered
appreciable if they exceed 20% of the area of a
simulated grid cell. (IPCC AR4 WG2 Chapter 4)
Figure 12. Extent of suitable habitat for
woodland horsetail in 2004 (left; red dots show
recorded natural distribution) and predicted in
2100 under the A2 scenario (right; suitable
climate is indicated by a gray scale from white
[not suitable] to dark gray [very suitable]). (Skov
and Svenning 2004).
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BIOS 5440 Course Overview 2010
7. Effects of Climate Change on Polar Ecosystems (student)
A. What will happen to the Arctic permafrost, sea ice, and ice sheets? (Figure 13)
B. How will arctic and antarctic species be affected? (Figures 13 and 14)
Figure 13 (left). Present and projected (for 2090-2100) vegetation and
minimum sea-ice extent for Arctic and neighboring regions, using the
HadCM2 climate model running the IS92 scenario. (Callahan et al. 2005,
IPCC AR4 WG2 Chapter 15)
Figure 14 (above). Geographic pattern of recent change in
Adelie penguin colonies, presumably as a result of changes
in pack ice. (www.penguinscience.com/clim_change.php)
8. Effects of Climate Change on Freshwater Ecosystems (student)
A. How will the physical characteristics of freshwater ecosystems be affected? (Figure 15)
B. How will freshwater ecological communities be affected? (Figure 16)
Figure 15. Projected percent change in runoff for
2041-2060, relative to a 1901-1970 baseline, using
the A1B emissions scenario. Colored areas indicate
that at least 8 of 12 models agreed on the direction of
change (increase vs. decrease). (Milly et al. 2008,
Karl et al. 2009)
Figure 16. Global change in water availability (discharge)
from climate change and water consumption under the A2
scenario. Numbered are 52 rivers predicted to lose more
than 10% of their fish species. (Xenopolous et al. 2005)
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BIOS 5440 Course Overview 2010
9.
Effects of Climate Change on Marine Ecosystems (student)
A. How will warming affect coral reefs and other marine ecosystems? (Figure 17)
B. How will ocean acidification affect coral reefs and other marine ecosystems? ?
Figure 17. Predicted distribution of biodiversity impact due to
warming-induced range shifts in marine metazoans, expressed
as local extinction intensity of 1066 species of fish and
invertebrates in 2050 relative to the mean of 2001–2005 (using
the A1B scenario). (Cheung et al. 2009)
Figure 18. Calculated aragonite saturation state
in umol kg-1. Blue indicates waters that are
favorable to calcium carbonate formation and red
indicates waters that are corrosive to calcifying
organisms (Orr et al. 2009)
10. Effects of Climate Change on Vertebrates (student)
A. Which endothermic species will be particularly vulnerable to climate change? (Figure 19)
B. Which ectothermic species will be particularly vulnerable to climate change? (Figure 20)
Figure 19. Recent population trends of
European migratory bird species (1990–
2000) (negative values: decline; positive
values: increase) in relation to change in
mean spring migration date (days/year)
in the period 1960–2006. (Moller et al.
2008)
Figure 20. Map of the potential vulnerability of amphibians,
based on the A2 scenario. A score for each region was given
based on the number of risk factors: predicted to have 50%
species turnover, predicted decrease in precipitation of at
least 10%, and the presence of at least 50 range restricted
species. (Lawler et al. 2009).
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BIOS 5440 Course Overview 2010
11. Effects of Climate Change on Invertebrates (student)
A. Which invertebrates will be particularly susceptible to climate change? (Figure 21)
B. Is adaptive evolution a likely response for invertebrates? (Figure 22)
Figure 21. Effect of latitude on predicted change in
fitness for 38 insect species due to climate warming.
(Deutsch 2008).
Figure 22. Critical photoperiods of the pitcher plant
mosquito collected from 1972 to 1996. The slope is
significantly steeper for the earlier year, indicating a
shift toward shorter critical photoperiods (more
southern phenotypes) that increased with latitude.
(Bradshaw and Holzapfel 2001).
12. Effects of Climate Change on Soil Ecosystems (student)
A. What are the ecologically most important belowground organisms? (Figure 23)
B. How will soil carbon and nutrient pools be affected by climate change? (Figure 24)
C. What are the likely consequences for aboveground portions of the ecosystem?
Figure 23. Schematic representation of a soil
ecosystem. (www.sccdistrict.com/images/)
Figure 24. Simulated changes in the global total soil and
vegetation carbon content (Gt C) between 1860 and 2100.
(Hadley Centre 2000)
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BIOS 5440 Course Overview 2010
13. Direct Effects of Elevated CO2 (Dr. Karowe)
A. How does elevated CO2 affect plant growth and composition? (Figure 25)
B. How do these changes affect higher trophic levels? (Figure 26)
Figure 25. Biomass enhancement ratio (BER;
ratio of biomass under elevated vs. ambient CO2)
of various plant groups. (Poorter and PerezSoba 2002)
Figure 26. Insect responses to elevated CO2.
Consistent responses include increased consumption
(RCR) but decreased growth (RGR) and pupal weight
(PW). (Stiling and Cornelissen 2007).
14. Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture (student)
A. How will changes in temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and sunlight affect crops?
B. How will quantity of yield be affected? (Figure 27)
C. How will quality of yield be affected? (Figure 28)
Figure 27. Potential change in wheat yields as
a function of temperature change at low and
mid- to high latitudes, without adaptation (red
dots) and with adaptation (dark green dots).
Adaptations include changes in planting date
and cultivar, and shifts from rain-fed to irrigated
conditions. (IPCC TA4 WG2 Chapter 5)
Figure 28. Observed change in seed nitrogen for wild
and crop plants grown under elevated CO2. (Jablonski
et al. 2002)
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BIOS 5440 Course Overview 2010
15. Effects of Climate Change on Human Health (student)
A. How will humans be affected by direct effects of climate change? (Figure 29)
B. How will human health be affected by indirect effects of climate change? (Figure 29)
C. Which populations are most at risk?
Figure 29. Possible
direct and indirect
effects of climate
change on human
health. (US National
Assessment Synthesis
Team 2000)
16. Consequences of Climate Change for the United States (student)
A. How do predictions differ for different regions of the U.S.? (Figure 30)
B. How will species, ecosystems, agriculture, coasts, and human health be affected? (Figure 31)
Figure 31. Average percent change in bird species
richness resulting from the climatic changes associated
with doubling of atmospheric CO2, projected using five
GCMs. (Currie 2001)
Figure 30. Projected change in summer
climate for New Hampshire under the B1
(orange) and A2 (red) scenarios. (Karl et
al. 2009)
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BIOS 5440 Course Overview 2010
17. Consequences of Climate Change for the Great Lakes region (student)
A. How will Michigan’s climate change? (Figure 32)
B. How will regional species, ecosystems, agriculture, and humans be affected? (Figure 33)
C. What will happen to the Great Lakes?
common loon
evening
grosbeak
Figure 32. Projected change in summer climate for
Michigan and Illinois under the A2 scenario. Within
three decades, a Michigan summer may feel like a
summer in Tennessee does today. By the end of the
century, a Michigan summer will probably feel like an
Arkansas summer. (Wuebbles and Hayhoe 2004)
white-throated
sparrow
red-breasted
nuthatch
Figure 33. Four of the 19 bird species
predicted to decline by at least 80% in
Michigan. (Matthews et al. 2007)
18. Alternate Energy Sources (student)
A. What are the most promising alternate energy sources? (Figure 34)
B. What are the technological barriers to their implementation?
C. What are the social and political barriers to their implementation?
Figure 34. Three promising alternate energy technologies: solar photovoltaic (left), wind (center), and fuel
cells (right). (Greenpeace 2003)
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BIOS 5440 Course Overview 2010
19. Economic Consequences of Climate Change (student)
A. What are the likely overall global economic consequences of climate change? (Figure 35)
B. How will economic consequences differ for developed and developing countries?
C. What are the likely economic consequences of inaction?
Figure 35. Mean losses in
income per capita from four
scenarios of climate change and
economic impacts, as a function
of the average increase in global
mean temperature (above
preindustrial levels). Losses are
relative to baseline growth in
per-capita GDP without climate
change. (Stern 2007, Chapter
6)
20. Contrarians’ Arguments Against Climate Change Action (student)
A. What are the prominent contrarian organizations?
B. What are their arguments, and how have they changed over time? (Figure 36)
C. How should an informed person respond to their arguments?
Figure 36. Example of “data”
presented in skeptics papers.
(Robinson et al. 2007)
From National Center for Public Policy Research: Global Warming Earth Summit Fact Sheet:
“Misconception: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international body
charged with monitoring the effects of global warming, has determined that global warming will
lead to increased incidence of flood, droughts, pest outbreaks and extreme weather events.
Fact: The IPCC has stated that "quantitative projections of the impacts of climate change on any
particular system at any particular location are difficult because regional-scale climate change
predictions are uncertain; our current understanding of many critical processes is limited..."”
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BIOS 5440 Course Overview 2010
21. Proposed Climate Change Legislation (student)
A. What is the current state of climate change legislation in the U.S.? (Figure 37)
B. What is the current state of international climate change legislation?
Figure 37. Distribution of
revenues from sale of carbon
emission allowances as
specified in the American
Climate and Energy Security
(ACES) Act of 2009. (1Sky
2009)
22. Stratospheric and Tropospheric Ozone (student)
A. How and why have stratospheric and tropospheric ozone levels changed? (Figures 38 and 39)
B. How do ozone levels and climate change interact?
Figure 38. Stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica
from 1980-2004. Note that the hole decreased in 2002
but has increased since. (http://www.environment.gov.
au/soe/2006/publications/drs/indicator/2/index.htm)
Figure 39. Global tropospheric ozone levels
averaged for August 2007. (NASA JPL 2007)
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BIOS 5440 Course Overview 2010
23. Habitat Loss (student)
A. What is the current extent and rate of global deforestation? (Figure 42)
B. What is habitat fragmentation, and how does it affect biodiversity?
C. How do deforestation, habitat fragmentation, and climate change interact to affect
biodiversity?
Figure 42. Deforestation rates
(millions of hectares per year)
between 1990-2005 in major
regions of the world. (FAO
2005)
24. Invasive Species (student)
A. What are some of the most important invasive species? (Figure 40)
B. What effects do invasive species have on ecosystems? (Figure 41)
C. What can be done to prevent invasive species from spreading?
Figure 40. Occurrence of invasive zebra
mussels in 2002 (USDA NISIC 2007)
Figure 41. Total catch of lake trout in three Great Lakes,
indicating the likely role of sea lampreys in trout decline.
(Coble et al. 1990)
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BIOS 5440 Course Overview 2010
25. Overexploitation (student)
A. Which species are currently overexploited? (Figure 42)
B. For what reasons are species overexploited? (Figure 43)
Figure 42. Main threats affecting globally
threatened bird species worldwide (Vié et al. 2009,
modified from BirdLife International 2008).
WILDLIFE IN A
CHANGING WORLD
Figure 43. A bird of paradise, illustrating one
reason for overharvesting.
(www.flickr.com/photos/floridapfe/1535999699/size
s/l/in/photostream/)
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BIOS 5440 Course Overview 2010
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