Global Climate Change Charles F. Ide, Ph.D.
Gwen Frostic Professor of Biological Sciences
Director, Great Lakes Environmental and Molecular Sciences Center
charles.ide@wmich.edu
Global Climate Change
• Ecosystems and natural resources are at risk from climate change. • Change is largely driven by human activities
– burning of fossil fuels to produce electricity
– driving our cars, which emits gases—principally carbon dioxide—that blanket the planet and trap heat. • Resulting fundamental change in the Earth's atmosphere and climate is affecting people and the environment in the Great Lakes region.
• http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/glregionmic.html
Global Climate Change:
Great Lakes
Climate Change in the Great Lakes: General Effects
• Forecasted regional temperature increases of 5‐
12˚ F in winter, and 5‐20˚F in summer.
• Annual precipitation expect to remain relatively constant with a shifts toward increased winter precipitation and decreased summer precipitation
• Climate will be much dryer due to increased evaporation and transpiration with no significant change in overall precipitation
• Decreases in surface water, groundwater and soil moisture by up to 30 percent
• Increase in storm events and flooding
http://ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global_warming/greatlakes_final.pdf
Michigan
• Bounty of water and its effect on the climate of the region have long shaped the rich and diverse ecosystems throughout the state. • Michigan has beautiful beaches for swimming, bountiful northern forests, and rich soils for agriculture. • These ecosystems continue to play a significant role in Michigan’s vibrant economy.
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http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/glregionmic.
html
Climate Change in Michigan
• Michigan's climate features cold, snowy winters that favor a variety of winter sports
• Warm summers that appeal to thousands of vacationers each year. • Precipitation and climate in Michigan has made Michigan a leader in livestock production as well as crops such as red tart cherries, blueberries, cranberries, and black beans. • Each of these unique features is threatened by projected changes in climate.
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http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/glregion
mic.html
• Pictured Rocks, Lake Superior
Summers in Michigan Become Summers in Arkansas
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Projections of future climate change combine 100 years of historical data for Michigan with the most up‐to‐
date general circulation models of the Earth's climate system. Michigan's climate will grow considerably warmer and probably drier during this century, especially in the summer. By 2030 summers in Michigan may feel more like current‐day Ohio. By 2095, summers will resemble that of northern Arkansas with winters that feel like Ohio.
http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/glregionmic.htm
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Climate Change: More Bad Weather For Michigan • Extreme heat will be more common.
• The frequency of heavy rainstorms will increase 50‐
100% higher than today.
• The growing season could be 8‐10 weeks longer.
• Declines in ice cover on the Great Lakes and inland lakes, recorded over the past 100‐
150 years, are expected to continue.
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http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/glregion
mic.html
• Grand Haven
Climate Change Michigan: More Snow
• A 5‐10oF rise in winter and a 7‐
13oF rise in summer temperatures by the end of the century is projected.
• Average annual precipitation may not change much, but an overall drier climate is expected – because rainfall cannot compensate for the increase in evaporation resulting from greater temperatures;
– drier soils and more droughts will occur; – winter precipitation will increase by 5‐25%, summer precipitation will remain the same.
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http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/glregio
nmic.html
Michigan Climate Change: Less Stream Habitat Leads to Reduction in Aquatic Ecosystems
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Changes to Stream Flow and Habitats
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Stream ecosystems will be impacted by a the region's changing precipitation patterns of an increase in precipitation in the winter and spring and a decrease in the summer and fall. Stream responses to these changes will vary according to the relative contribution of groundwater versus surface water in their flow patterns. In general, dryer summers will lead to lower summer stream flow and less stream habitat due to drier conditions. Other potential impacts include disruption in fish and insect life cycles due to earlier ice out; increased floodplain habitat as a result of more precipitation in the winter and spring; and decreases in fish and invertebrate production as a result of more frequent heavy rainfall events.
Michigan Climate Change: More Lake Dead Zones, Summer Fishkills
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Increased Summer Stratification
Stratification of lakes occurs when a warm surface layer of water develops over cooler, deeper water. A warming climate increases the duration of summer stratification in the deep lakes. This, in turn, makes frequent and larger "dead zones"—areas of water depleted of oxygen and unable to support life—more likely to occur. Persistent dead zones can result in toxic algal blooms, foul‐smelling, musty‐tasting drinking water, damage to fisheries, and massive fish kills—known as "summer kill".
• Mona Lake Fishkill
Climate Change Michigan: Fewer Trout, Whitefish; More Walleye, Bluegill
• A Change in the Distribution of Fish Species
– As water temperatures in the region increase, cold‐water species such as lake trout, brook trout, and whitefish may decline dramatically, – As cool‐water species such as muskie and walleye, along with warm‐water species, such as bluegill and smallmouth bass, will expand their ranges northward. • Lake Trout, Bluegill
Climate Change Michigan: More Invasive Species
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The Spread of Invasive Species
– A changing climate will likely favor invasive species with generalized habitat and feeding requirements over native species with more specialized needs. – The spread of non‐native nuisance species will likely to compound the impacts of climate change on Michigan's aquatic ecosystems. – Climate change is likely to permit some invasive species, such as zebra mussels and common carp, to expand their range northward. – Their movement, along with the introduction and spread of other invasive species due to climate change, will fundamentally change native fish communities.
• Zebra Mussels, Carp
Climate Change Michigan: More Phosphorous, Mercury Release from Sediments
• The Release of Nutrients and Contaminants
– Lower oxygen and warmer temperatures promote greater microbial decomposition and subsequent release of nutrients and contaminants from bottom sediments. – Phosphorus release would be enhanced, and mercury release and uptake by biota would also likely increase—
exposing humans to higher mercury levels via fish consumption.
• Eutrophication, Mercury Release
Michigan Climate Change: Reduced Groundwater Recharge/Wetlands
• A Reduction in Groundwater Recharge
– Reduced summer water levels are likely to diminish the recharge of groundwater, cause small streams to dry up, and reduce the area of wetlands, resulting in poorer water quality and less habitat for wildlife.
Climate Change Michigan: Decreasing Ice, Water Levels in the Great Lakes
• A Decrease in Lake Levels
Changes in the precipitation cycle and seasonal temperatures will affect lake levels. – Overall, increasing temperatures will lead to a decline in ice cover and a greater rate of evaporation, causing lake levels to decline. • 30% Decrease in Great Lakes Ice Since 1970
Michigan Climate Change: Less Water, More Expense Maintaining Great Lakes Commerce
• As lake levels drop, • Lake Huron, 1 ft. costs to shipping on the drop in lake level by Great Lakes are likely to 2100
increase, along with costs of dredging harbors and channels and of adjusting docks, water intake pipes, and other infrastructure.
Michigan Climate Change: More Extreme Rain Events, More Flooding
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A Degradation of Wetlands' Flood‐
Absorbing Capacity
– Development and climate change will degrade the natural flood‐absorbing capacities of wetlands and floodplains. – More run‐off in winter and spring from rain‐on‐snow events and in summer from intense downpours, cause increased flooding and erosion. – These events in turn could increase pollution in lakes, rivers, and streams from municipal and farm run‐off, which often enters surface waters untreated. – Periodic droughts also concentrate sulfates and acids, and, when flushed into lakes during intense rains, increase acid stress in aquatic systems.
– More PCBs will enter the Kalamazoo and other contaminated rivers and Lake Michigan causing more expensive cleanup options and more ecosystem and human health effects
• Flooding in Kalamazoo
Michigan Climate Change: Flooding Related Disease Outbreaks
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Increased Risk of Waterborne Infectious Disease
• Cryptosporidium
– Extreme rainstorms can swamp municipalities' sewage and storm water capacities, increasing the risks of water pollution and waterborne infectious diseases. – As a result, outbreaks of waterborne infectious diseases such as cryptosporidiosis or giardiasis may become more frequent or widespread if extreme rainstorms occur more often, as projected under climate change.
– One of the best known examples of a cryptosporidium outbreak occurred in Milwaukee in 1993, after an extended period of rainfall and runoff overwhelmed the city's drinking water purification system, and caused 403,000 cases of intestinal illness and 54 deaths. Milwaukee's drinking water originates in Lake Michigan.
Climate Change Impacts on PCBs and Human Health in Michigan Charles Ide, Ph.D.
Great Lakes Environmental and Molecular Sciences Center
Western Michigan University
Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs)
• Manufactured for electrical system uses ‐
insulators, transformer boxes on power poles
• Non‐flammable, do not easily degrade; many uses on consumer goods (rubber, pesticides, paints, inks, weatherproofing)
• Ubiquitous on the planet (air,soil, water)
• Over 3.4 billion pounds released into the environment worldwide
• Major contaminant in the Kalamazoo River Superfund Site
Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs)
• Manufactured for electrical system uses ‐ insulators, transformer boxes on power poles
• Non‐flammable, do not easily degrade; many uses on consumer goods (rubber, pesticides, paints, inks, weatherproofing)
• Ubiquitous on the planet (air,soil, water)
• Over 3.4 billion pounds released into the environment worldwide
• Major contaminant in the Kalamazoo River Superfund Site and in Lake Michigan
• Lake Michigan PCBs
209 Different Congeners of PCBs
• Co‐planar
– Most toxic
– Need to be in co‐planar or flat position to bind to receptors
• Non co‐planar
– Responsible for disrupting calcium homeostasis, neurological and neuromuscular function
First Indications That PCBs Cause Environmental
Health Problems
From “Our Stolen Future” - by Theo Colborn et al
• 1960’s -- Lake Michigan mink farms, females were not
producing pups; reproductive failure linked to PCBs in
fish (from Lake Michigan) fed to the mink
• 1988 -- northern Europe, 18,000 seals found dead in
the North sea; deaths linked to distemper virus and
immune system suppression by PCB’s; similar pattern
seen in Dolphin die off in Mediterranean Sea
Environmental Concentrations of PCBs
• Because they can be dangerous in very small quantities, PCBs are commonly measured in parts‐
per‐million, abbreviated as ppm.
• One ppm is 1 part in 1,000,000. Four drops of ink in a 55‐gallon barrel of water would produce an "ink concentration" of 1 ppm.
Great Lakes Residents Most Impacted by PCBs
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Bald eagle
Lake trout
Herring gull
Mink
Otter
Coho Salmon
–Double crested cormorant
–Snapping turtle
–Common tern
–Humans
All Are the Top of the Food Chain
– PCBs magnified 25 million times while
traversing the food chain from sediment
particles bound to plankton up to ingestion by
large predators such as eagles, gulls, mink,
otters, turtles, and humans
Kalamazoo River Superfund Site (PCBs)
Where did the PCBs Come From?
• Local paper mills discharged paper waste contaminated with PCBs directly into the Kalamazoo River.
• Landfills were also constructed along the river in the late 1950s to contain and dry out PCB contaminated waste, a byproduct of the paper‐making process. • The landfills were in use until 1977.
• Material in the landfills contains high concentrations of PCBs; over the years, much of it washed into the river. • Over 110,000 pounds of PCBs remain in river sediments and floodplain soils.
Where did the PCBs Come From?
‐continued‐
• Between 15,000 and 20,000poundsof PCBs have built up behind the Plainwell Dam (much was recently removed when the dam was dismantled); between 4,000 and 6,000 pounds behind the Otsego Dam.
• In 1986 and 1987, the Plainwell, Otsego and Trowbridge Dams were breached to improve the fishery. • As water levels in the impoundments behind the dams fell, contaminated stream banks eroded, releasing PCBs into the river.
• PCB concentrations as high as 100 ppm occur in river sediments.
PCB Fate and Transport
• PCBs are hydrophobic and adsorb into particulates and lipids
– Sediments
• Loading
• Suspension
• Unloading
– Fish
http://www.michigan.gov/images/deq‐rrd‐KR‐sediment_83384_7.jpg
http://www.ohiohistorycentral.org/images/naturalHistory/fish/carp.jpg
PCB Fate and Transport
• Water
– Low Flow
• Groundwater
– Recently tested (EPA)
– High Flow
• Bank Erosion
• Floodplain Inundation
www.ga.nrcs.usda.gov/programs/floodplain.html
http://www.kalamazooriver.net/tmdl/erosion_photos/site17.jpg
Floodplains
• What they found
– PCB concentration much higher in the floodplains
• Flow of PCBs from floodplain to river
• Most occurs during extreme rain storms
– Impact is variable
• Depends on
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Frequency
Extent
Duration
Amount of flow
Floodplains
PCBs in the Kalamazoo River
‐in parts‐per‐million (ppm)‐
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PCB levels related to the River
Floodplain soils ‐ up to 81 ppm
Dam sediment ‐ 10 to 100 ppm
Fish tissue ‐ up to 164 ppm
Duck tissue ‐ 4.8 ppm
Eagle egg contents ‐ 120 ppm
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“Safe” PCB levels
‐ *0.015 ppm in fish fillets and 0.04 ppm in river sediments protects subsistence fisherpeoplefrom cancer (*Data from MDEQ Human Health Risk Assessment)
Hot Spots
of PCB contaminated small mouth bass along the river
Highest Values From Whole Fish
Trowbridge – 11 ppm
Lake Allegan – 12 ppm
Below Lake Allegan – 8 ppm
Average values are up to ½ the high values.
Women and children should not eat bass containing more than 0.015 ppm PCBs (MDEQ risk assessment)
• Thus, fish fromLake Alleganhave PCB levels nearly 1000 times higher than levels safe for consumption by women and children.
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carp
CYP1A Protein Increases in Carp From PCB Sites
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(A) Robust immunocytochemical
localization of CYP1A protein appears in hepatocytes in a carp liver section from a fish collected from Lake Allegan, a PCB contaminated site in the Kalamazoo River. (B) Weak localization of CYP1A protein appears in carp liver hepatocytes from a fish collected from Ceresco, a Kalamazoo River reference site. (C) No immunocytochemical localization of CYP1A protein appears in hepatocytes in a reference carp liver section lacking primary antibody treatment (from Fisher et al, in preparation).
Macrophage Aggregates in PCB Contaminated Carp Hepatopancreas
“Effects of PCB exposure on Neuropsychological Function in Children”
• PCB adversely effects neurodevelopment
– Taiwan
– Michigan
– New York
– The Netherlands
– Germany
– The Faroe Islands
Fetal Exposure to PCBs • Fetus is more sensitive – Crosses the placenta
– Accumulates in breast milk
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Lower birth weight
Smaller head Premature birth
Lower IQ
Eating Great Lakes Fish and Impaired Human
DevelopmentSandra and Joseph Jacobson, Wayne State University
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Pregnant mothers who ate 3 meals of Great Lakes fish a month had
higher risk for giving birth to children who developed more slowly and
showed neurological abnormalities
– lower birth weight
– premature birth
– smaller heads
– lower IQ
– visual deficits
– correlated with levels of PCBs in mothers’ systems
– similar effects seen in wildlife contaminated with PCBs, DDT,
dieldrin, chlordane, and lindane
PCBs and Neurological Function
• Additional studies have shown that adults who eat more than 2 meals of Lake Michigan fish/month show memory and learning deficits
• Animal studies show that learning physiology at the cellular level is altered by PCBs
How Clean is Clean: To What Levels Should We Cleanup the River to Protect the Health of the Kalamazoo River Ecosystem?
• Cleaning up to a level of PCBs in instream sediments that protects subsistent fishermen from cancer (0.04 ppm) will protect all people and all animals that consume fish from the river
• Cleaning up to a level of PCBs in floodplain soils that protects people who live near the river from cancer (2.5 ppm) will also protect animals that feed in these areas
Climate Change Rain Events: More PCBS from Floodplains into the River
• More extreme rain events causes more erosion from banks/floodplains, more PCBs into the water column, more highly contaminated fish
• If cleanup were done today, costs could reach $400M
• Costs after Climate Change rain events will dramatically increase cleanup costs
Calculating Climate Change Induced Human Health Risks Related to PCBs in the Kalamazoo River
• NSF sponsored Climate Change course at WMU,
Fall 2010 and 2011
• Student researchersused a web based Dynamic
Decision Support System developed by Gleams
(Great Lakes Environmental and Molecular
Sciences Center shared by WMU and Michigan
Tech University). This tool can be found at
www.greatlakesdecisionsupport.org or
www.tinyurl.com/gleamstool.
GLEAMS Health Risk Tool
• The GLEAMS decision support systemshows
PCB levels in the Kalamazoo River and
contains a tool that calculates human health
risk related to consumption of PCB
contaminated fish.
• Studentsanalyzed a section of Lake Allegan for
human health risk from both pre and postglobal climate change PCB levels.
Lake Allegan Analysis Sector
Health risk of eating fish from Lake Allegan
(Kalamazoo River) pre-GCC
Health risk of eating fish from Lake
Allegan (Kalamazoo River) post GCC
Calculating Climate Change Health Risk Related to PCBs in the Kalamazoo River
• Studentsfound that in an area of the Kalamazoo
River (Lake Allegan), human health risk will
increase with global climate change. For
example:
• The cancer risk will increase from 5.6 to 7.2 per
100,000 people.
• The immunological hazard will increase from
3.29 to 4.25 (unitless).
• The reproductive hazard will go from a safe 0.94
to a dangerous 1.21 (unitless).
Clean up the River Now, Before Climate Change Creates Greater PCB Related Health Problems
• In conclusion,studentsfound that with global climate
change comes an increase of PCB levels in the
Kalamazoo River.
• As the PCBs move up through the food chain from fish
to humans, health risks for humans will inevitably
increase. Additionally, the environment will be
affected as animals become more vulnerable as well.
• To address this issue, there should be an increased
emphasisonfish consumption advisories and immediate
clean up of contaminated sites. If these issues go
unaddressed, human health will suffer, in turn, affecting
the ever increasing costs of health care.