Climate Change: Global, Regional, and Local
Effects on Ecosystem and Human Health
Dr. David Karowe
Department of Biological Sciences
Western Michigan University
Since 1900, Earth has warmed by ~ 0.8o C
Temperature Change (oC)
10 warmest years in history: 2002-2007, 2009-2011, 1998*
*
- warmest year: 2010
- rate of warming is 10-100 times faster
than in at least the last 800,000 years
- likely faster than in 55 million yr
1
Temperature difference relative to 1950-1980
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/animations/
Earth’s climate has always been changing
Over the past 800,000 years:
~ 100,000 year climate cycles, due to cyclic changes in
amount of incoming solar radiation
2
Can current climate change be due to
“natural variation”?
Solar Irradiance
For the last 30 years, solar irradiance has been
decreasing
Since 1900, natural factors would have caused
a slight cooling of Earth
3
Bottom line: At least 95% of global warming
is due to human activities
Fossil fuel use (~80%)
Deforestation (~20%)
Is there any debate among scientists about whether
humans are the primary cause of global warming?
“Most of the global warming in recent decades can
be attributed to human activities."
Scientific organizations endorsing this statement:
United States:
National Academy of Sciences
American Association for the Advancement of Science
American Medical Association
American Meteorological Society
American Institute of Biological Sciences
American Chemical Society
American Geophysical Union
American Institute of Physics
4
Geological Society of America
American Academy of Paediatrics
American College of Preventive Medicine
American Public Health Association
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Environmental Protection Agency
National Center for Atmospheric Research
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Ecological Society of America
American Society of Agronomy
American Society of Plant Biologists
Association of Ecosystem Research Centers
Botanical Society of America
Crop Science Society of America
Natural Science Collections Alliance
American Statistical Association
Organization of Biological Field Stations
American Physical Society
Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
Society of Systematic Biologists
Soil Science Society of America
Federation of American Scientists
National Research Council
National Association of Geoscience Teachers
American Quaternary Association
American Association of Wildlife Veterinarians
American Society for Microbiology
Society of American Foresters
American Astronomical Society
5
Europe:
European Academy of Sciences and Arts
European Science Foundation
European Geosciences Union
European Physical Society
European Federation of Geologists
Royal Society of the United Kingdom
Academie des Sciences (France)
Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher (Germany)
Accademia dei Lincei (Italy)
Royal Irish Academy
Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
Royal Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts
Royal Meteorological Society
British Antarctic Survey
United Kingdom Institute of Biology
Other countries (≥ 35):
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Science Council of Japan
Russian Academy of Sciences
Indian National Science Academy
Royal Society of New Zealand
Australian Academy of Sciences
Australian Medical Association
Polish Academy of Sciences
Academia Brasiliera de Ciencias (Brazil)
Royal Society of Canada
African Academy of Sciences
Caribbean Academy of Sciences
Academy of Sciences of Malaysia
Indonesian Academy of Sciences
Academy of Science of South Africa
6
Scientific organizations holding a dissenting opinion:
American Institute of Petroleum Geologists
(but not since 2007)
Are Americans aware of the strength of the
scientific evidence?
7
Are Americans aware of the strength of the
scientific consensus?
85% of U.S. energy comes from fossil fuels
8
U.S. emits the most carbon per person
Midwest would be 4th highest emitting country
In just the last 150 years, atmospheric CO2
increased from 280 to >390 parts per million (ppm)
9
Worldwide, what’s already happening?
Arctic summer sea ice is disappearing
Glaciers are melting worldwide
1978
2000
10
Greenland is melting and Antarctica is shattering
Permafrost is melting and destabilizing
11
Severe rainstorms have become more common
- 50% increase in southwest Michigan since 1948
Flooding has increased worldwide
12
2011 was Michigan’s 3rd wettest spring on record
As a result, Michigan experienced flooding this spring
13
And there was extensive flooding along Mississippi
Droughts have also increased worldwide
Ex
ce
Ex ptio
t r e na
Se me l
v
Mo ere
de
Mi rate
ld
dr
ou
gh
t
1950-1959
Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
14
Ex
ce
Ex ptio
t r e na
Se me l
v
Mo ere
de
Mi rate
ld
dr
ou
gh
t
2000-2009
Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
Much of the U.S. had an unusually warm summer
15
In late September, 43% of U.S. was in drought
September 27, 2011
South central states experienced “Exceptional Drought”
Right now, 61% of U.S. is in drought
September
27, 2011
April 10, 2012
16
This year, 23 states had their warmest March on record
What will the future bring?
17
Climate change is very likely to accelerate
Earth is expected to warm by at least 2-4o C by 2100
“Business
as usual”
4o
2o
Alternate
energy
sources
On average, CO2 stays in the atmosphere for ~100 years
Global warming is likely to persist for >1,000 years
after we stop emitting greenhouse gasses
18
Will a 4-5o temperature rise matter?
When Earth was 5o cooler:
Severe rainstorms will continue to increase
19
In the future, most summers are likely to be hotter
than any experienced thus far
In the future, most summers are likely to be hotter
than any experienced thus far
20
Much of the world is likely to experience much more
frequent and stronger droughts
2060-2069
ex
ce
ex ptio
tre na
se me l
v
m ere
od
e
m rat
ild e
dr
ou
gh
t
1950-1959
2000-2009
Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
How are plants and animals likely to be affected by
future climate change?
21
By 2100, many species are predicted to experience
“disappearing climates”
Low
Moderate
High
Probability of a “Disappearing Climate”
African mammals are likely to be adversely affected
Of 227 species, 20-40% are predicted to be extinct by
2080 due to climate change
22
Most Western Hemisphere amphibian species are
predicted to be adversely affected by climate change
37% of 413 species
are predicted to decrease
by >90%
area of
greatest
vulnerability
Birds in high northern latitudes are particularly
vulnerable to climate change
White-winged
Crossbill
Eurasian
Dotterel
27 species lose, on
average, 80% of suitable
habitat by 2080
23
Possible loss of all coral reefs with 3o rise
and >650 ppm CO2
Overall, tree species richness is predicted to decline
substantially throughout the U.S. by 2100
Current
2100
24
In Michigan, sugar maple is predicted to decline
by >80% by 2100 under “Business as Usual”
Current
2100
In Michigan, 8 of the 15 most abundant tree species
are predicted to decline by at least 50%
sugar maple
balsam fir
big tooth and trembling aspen
paper birch
northern white cedar
25
36 Michigan bird species predicted to decline by 75-100%
common loon
evening
grosbeak
white-throated
sparrow
red-breasted
nuthatch
blackburnian
warbler
yellow-bellied
sapsucker
magnolia
warbler
junco
additional species predicted to decline by 75-100%:
26
15 new species are predicted to occur in Michigan
northern
bobwhite
Mississippi
kite
yellow-billed
cuckoo
scissor-tailed
flycatcher
little blue
heron
painted
bunting
cattle egret
summer
tanager
Globally, if we allow Earth to warm by 3o C,
20-50% of species may be committed to extinction
27
How is climate change likely to affect human health?
1. Increased heat stress and decreased cold stress
2. Increased disease (e.g. malaria, dengue)
3. Reduced air quality (e.g. higher ozone)
4. Increased malnutrition
5. Increased conflict
By 2100 in Europe, every other summer could be like
2003, when a heat wave killed up to 80,000 people
2003
1900
2100
Year
28
Michigan will experience many more days over 90o F
For many Midwestern cities, dramatic increases predicted
in the number of Chicago 1995-like heat waves
- responsible for ~ 700 deaths
Number of Chicago 1995-like heat waves per decade
29
Climate change is likely to cause an increase in several
vector-borne diseases
e.g. malaria
1,000,000 deaths annually
Anopheles
Most studies predict increase in malaria, but change
depends on climate scenario
+2o C
+10% summer rain
- 10% winter rain
+4o C
+20% summer rain
- 20% winter rain
30
Fossil fuel induced increases in tropospheric ozone is
predicted to cause ~2 million deaths by 2050
Annual deaths due to O3 above pre-industrial level
- health costs estimated at $580 billion per year
In the U.S., corn and soybean yields are predicted to
decrease dramatically
31
By 2030, most of the important crops in India and
Pakistan are predicted to have reduced yields
- 30% of world’s
malnourished people
Climate change is predicted to increase civil wars in
six African regions by 5-10% by 2030
- overall increase
in sub-Saharan
Africa of about
about 50%
32
Developed countries are causing the problem, but
developing countries experience most health costs
Countries proportional to
CO2 emissions (1950-2000)
Countries proportional to
climate-sensitive health effects
What can I do to minimize climate change?
33
1. Next time, buy a more fuel-efficient car
20 mpg
34 mpg
30 mpg
50 mpg
- would reduce CO2 emissions by 56 million tons per year
2. Weatherize your house: weather-strip, adequately
insulate attic, and replace single-pane windows
with triple-pane windows
- would reduce CO2 emissions by 25 million tons per year
34
3. Next time, buy energy star appliances
- would reduce CO2 emissions by 15 million tons per year
4. HVAC equipment: when necessary, replace older
furnace and AC unit with Energy Star model
- would reduce CO2 emissions by 12 million tons per year
35
5. Change to compact fluorescent light bulbs
- one per household = taking 6 million cars off the road
6. Turn the thermostat down (winter) or up (summer)
- can save 7 tons of CO2 per year for a family of four
36
7. Buy green electricity
- one GreenBlock = driving 3,300 fewer miles per year
($1.50/month)
Unfortunately, energy conservation is not a solution
50 mpg
- really just delays the inevitable
37
Emissions reductions need to be rapid and large
- 80% reduction by 2050 to avoid worst scenarios
Urgent need for alternate energy sources
Solar
Wind
The TRUE COSTS of wind and solar are already
lower than coal-generated electricity
True cost per kilowatt hour of power
Coal:
26¢
Offshore wind:
Onshore wind:
Solar troughs:
Solar towers:
3¢
6¢
11¢
20¢
Solar PV:
40¢
38
Wind power could supply 16 times current U.S.
electricity demand using only onshore turbines
- Michigan can supply 12 times our current use
Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is very promising
Central tower
Parabolic trough
39
A CSP solar array 100 x 100 miles could provide
all of U.S. electricity needs today
- excess energy captured during the day could be stored
as heat and used to produce electricity at night
A small portion of the Sahara desert could supply all
of the world’s electricity
40
Who has the largest impact on Earth’s future?
Fred Upton is “…
one of the biggest
threats to planet
Earth on planet
Earth.” LA Times,
December 2011
8. Contact your representatives!
9. Vote
41
10. Educate others
Worst case scenario:
42