Climate Change:
Past, Present, and Future
David Karowe
Department of Biological Sciences
Western Michigan University
Warming is now 10-20 times faster
than in at least 800,000 years
Temperature difference relative to 1950-1980
(http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/animations/)
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Can climate change be due to “natural variation”?
While Earth has been warming fastest, solar
irradiance has been decreasing
Temperature
Solar Irradiance
Since 1900, natural factors would have caused
a slight cooling of Earth
Is there any debate among scientists about whether
humans are the primary cause of global warming?
“Most of the global warming in recent decades can
be attributed to human activities."
Scientific organizations endorsing this statement:
United States:
National Academy of Sciences
American Medical Association
American Association for the Advancement of Science
American Meteorological Society
American Institute of Biological Sciences
American Chemical Society
American Geophysical Union
American Institute of Physics
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Geological Society of America
American Academy of Paediatrics
American College of Preventive Medicine
American Public Health Association
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Environmental Protection Agency
National Center for Atmospheric Research
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Ecological Society of America
American Society of Agronomy
American Society of Plant Biologists
Association of Ecosystem Research Centers
Botanical Society of America
Crop Science Society of America
Natural Science Collections Alliance
Europe:
European Academy of Sciences and Arts
European Science Foundation
European Geosciences Union
European Physical Society
European Federation of Geologists
Royal Society of the United Kingdom
Academie des Sciences (France)
Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher (Germany)
Accademia dei Lincei (Italy)
Royal Irish Academy
Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
Royal Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts
Royal Meteorological Society
British Antarctic Survey
United Kingdom Institute of Biology
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Other countries (≥ 35):
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Science Council of Japan
Russian Academy of Sciences
Indian National Science Academy
Royal Society of New Zealand
Australian Academy of Sciences
Polish Academy of Sciences
Academia Brasiliera de Ciencias (Brazil)
Royal Society of Canada
African Academy of Sciences
Caribbean Academy of Sciences
Academy of Sciences of Malaysia
Indonesian Academy of Sciences
Academy of Science of South Africa
Scientific organizations holding a dissenting opinion:
2007:
American Institute of Petroleum Geologists
Since 2008:
none
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Has Earth stopped warming?
This is a deceptive argument that only
works with the Super El Nino year
1998
1998 as the starting point
1999
1996
Has climate change started to affect the U.S.?
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2012 was the warmest year on record for the U.S.
Much of the U.S. has been experiencing severe drought
June2012
March
April
May
August
December
July
February
January
49%
drought
72%drought
drought
56%
59%
64%
79%
78%
58%
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Is the U.S. still in drought?
April 16, 2013: 62% drought
What does the future hold?
It depends on the choices we make
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Depending on choices we make,
Earth is likely to warm by 2-5o C by 2100
Actual
“Business
as usual”
4o
2o
Alternate
energy
sources
ex
ce
ex ptio
tre na
se me l
v
m ere
od
e
m rat
ild e
dr
ou
gh
1950-1959
t
Much of the world is likely to experience much more
frequent and stronger droughts by the 2060s
Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
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Much of the world is likely to experience much more
frequent and stronger droughts by the 2060s
2000-2009
1950-1959
Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
Much of the world is likely to experience much more
frequent and stronger droughts by the 2060s
2060-2069
1950-1959
2000-2009
Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
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Most summers are likely to be hotter than any
experienced thus far
To avoid worst scenarios, we need to rapidly and
substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions
Target: 80% reduction by 2050
Urgent need for alternate energy sources
Solar
Wind
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1. We’re causing climate to change at an
alarming rate
2. If we continue on our current path, the future
is very likely to include unprecedented
hardships for all of Earth’s species, including
humans
3. Many of the worst scenarios can be avoided by
smarter energy choices we have available today
The Politics of Climate Change
Paul Clements
Professor of Political Science
Western Michigan University
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The Bottom Line
No way to limit global warming to 2°C
without a strong international agreement.
Such an agreement is only possible with
American leadership.
Why the 2°C target?
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drought
sea level rise
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floods
famine
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Extinctions
Globally, if we allow Earth to warm by 3o C, 20‐50% of species may be committed to extinction
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Per capita CO2 emissions (tons), 2008
USA
China
Sweden
Brazil
India
Kenya
18.6
5.3
5.3
2.0
1.5
0.3
Source: World Bank
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Principles for no more than 2°C warming:
3 tons/capita C02 emissions for each country by 2050
Industrialized countries help low-income countries to
develop with clean-energy technologies
Main beneficiaries of greenhouse gas emitting activities
(mainly in industrialized countries) help main victims of
climate change (mainly in poor countries) to adapt to climate
change and to avoid/recover from worst harms
Why the urgency?
Delaying action makes it more expensive.
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History of Climate Change Policy in
the United States
1978, National Research Council:
“if carbon dioxide continues to increase …
[we find] no reason to doubt that climate
change will result and no reason to believe
that these changes will be negligible. … A
wait-and-see policy may mean waiting until it
is too late.”
1987 Congress directed Environmental Protection
Agency to develop national policy on climate
change, directed Secretary of State to coordinate
diplomatic efforts to combat global warming.
1988 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) established by World Meteorological
Organization & United Nations Environment
Programme
1990 IPCC published first report confirming humaninduced climate change
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1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
signed by George H. W. Bush, ratified unanimously
by U.S. Senate
1997 Kyoto Protocol; Senate unanimously passed resolution
stating the U.S. should not enter into a treaty that did
not include binding commitments from developing
countries or that would cause harm to the U.S.
economy.
2000 President George W. Bush repudiated Kyoto Protocol,
chose not to regulate CO2
2005 California Governor Schwarzenegger ordered state’s
total greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to 2000
levels by 2010, 1990 levels by 2020, and 80% below
1990 levels by 2050. Corresponds to 12.5 tons of CO2
equivalent per capita in 2010, 10 tons in 2020, and
1.5 tons in 2050.
2007 Supreme Court decided Massachusetts vs. EPA by 5-4
majority giving EPA authority to regulate greenhouse
gasses.
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2009 Democratic majority in U.S. House of Representatives
passed climate change bill proposing cap and trade
system, yielding estimated price of $13 in 2012 to emit a
ton of CO2. Aimed to reduce U.S. emissions to 18 tons
per capita by 2020 and 4 tons per capita by 2050. Bill
supported by President Obama, but died when Senate
refused to take it up.
Climate change conference in Copenhagen agreed to 2°C
target but fails to set binding commitments (lacking U.S.
support).
Hillary Clinton promised that U.S. would help to raise
$100 billion annually by 2020 to help poor countries
cope with climate change if China and India accepted
binding commitments open to international inspection
and verification.
2010 Fred Upton’s website: “I strongly believe that everything
must be on the table as we seek to reduce carbon
emissions.”
2011 Upton became chair of House Energy and Commerce
Committee.
Upton in Wall Street Journal op-ed: EPA regulation to
curb greenhouse gas emissions “presumes that carbon is a
problem in need of regulation. We are not convinced.”
Carbon rules are “an unconstitutional power grab that will
kill millions of jobs.”
Upton authored Energy Tax Prevention Act prohibiting
the EPA Administrator from regulating greenhouse gasses
and repealing mandatory reporting of greenhouse gasses.
(It passed the House but died in the Senate.)
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2013 President Obama asserted commitment to address
climate change in inaugural address and State of the
Union speech.
But effective action to limit warming to 2°C requires a
strong international agreement.
Not possible without American leadership; requires
not only presidential leadership but also Congressional
support.
The Politics of Climate Change:
Denial and Government Failure to Act
Ron Kramer
Department of Sociology
Western Michigan University
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• Climate change is the most important
moral, social and political issue of our time
• The symbolic use of the concept of crime
and criminality concerning climate change
• Crime: a grievous, blameworthy harm
• Refers to the failure of governments to act
to mitigate or adapt to climate change
• Climate Change from a
Criminological Perspective
Rob White (ed.)
• My chapter focuses on
climate change as
“state-corporate crime”
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• Despite the climate emergency, there has been
a monumental failure of the political system to act
• The abject failure of the U.S. government to act to
mitigate GHG emissions and the socially
organized denial of climate change that shapes
that failure can be conceptualized as state
corporate crimes.
• A “blameworthy harm”; a “crime of omission”;
“negligent state criminality,” where the
government fails to act affirmatively to prevent
unnecessary and premature loss of life
The Politics of Climate Change
•Interactions between the fossil fuel industry and the
federal government result in a lack of action on
climate change:
1. Subsidies
2. Lobbying
3. Campaign Contributions
4. Revolving Door
5. Drafting of Legislation
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Climate Change Denial Countermovement
• The global warming denial movement, organized by
corporate and ideological interest groups, creates
doubts about climate science and blocks actions to
reduce emissions and create energy alternatives.
• Denial efforts are largely carried out by conservative
think tanks funded for the most part by the fossil fuel
industry.
• They attempt to obfuscate, misrepresent, manipulate or
suppress the results of scientific research.
There are five types of climate change denial
argument:
1. Conspiracy theories-Plot to abolish capitalism or
“Climategate” emails prove conspiracy
2. Fake Experts-Petitions show there is no consensus
or spokespersons with no background in climate
science
3. Impossible expectations-Climate models not
completely certain
4. Misrepresentations and logical fallacies-The climate
has changed in the past, current change is natural
variation
5. Cherry-picking-Isolated papers and data are
selected while the larger body of evidence is ignored
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The Moral/Political Challenge of Climate Change
•
•
•
•
•
A matter of Social Justice:
Ecological debt to global South
Suffering of the poor
Moral obligation to future generation
Obligation to other species
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