WETLANDS, Vol. 28, No. 4, December 2008, pp. 883–895 ’ 2008, The Society of Wetland Scientists LONG-TERM VEGETATION DEVELOPMENT OF RESTORED PRAIRIE POTHOLE WETLANDS Myla F. J. Aronson and Susan Galatowitsch University of Minnesota 305 Alderman Hall St. Paul, Minnesota, USA 55018 E-mail: arons076@umn.edu Abstract: Although wetland restoration has been a key part of U.S. environmental policy for 20 years (i.e., ‘‘no net loss’’), there is little long-term data on restorations to guide planning and assessment. Understanding how restored wetland communities deviate from natural conditions, and how long those deviations persist, can provide important insights into the mechanisms of recovery and improve restoration practice. This study reports the results from a 19-year survey of 37 restored prairie pothole wetlands in northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, and southeastern South Dakota. Complete floristic surveys were performed for each of the wetlands in 1989, 1990, 1991, 2000, and 2007. The accumulation of wetland species across all sites was greatest during the first 12 years after reflooding (14.4 species/year), after which the rate declined to 1.6 species/year. Proximity to natural wetlands and a semi-permanent water regime favored species accumulations during the first 12 years, but changes since then are primarily linked to water regime. Semi-permanent wetlands have experienced fewer major gains and losses in species richness, whereas temporary and seasonal wetlands have been less stable. From 2000 to 2007, extinctions exceeded colonizations in all wetlands, resulting in a convergence of beta diversity. Although 77% of the species considered common to natural wetlands in the region established in these restorations, 70% of those considered infrequent have not. The likelihood that these restorations will eventually support many additional species appears low, given the presence of barriers to recovery, especially the dominance of invasive perennials (e.g., Phalaris arundinacea and Typha angustifolia/x glauca) on all sites and the low colonization efficiency of wet prairie, sedge meadow, and woody perennial species. Management, such as active revegetation of these low efficiency species guilds, particularly sedge meadow and wet prairie perennials, and invasive species control is needed to ensure that restored prairie wetlands support the region’s biodiversity. The important barriers to the recovery of prairie pothole restoration: isolation, infrequent flooding, and invasive species, are all factors that do not self-correct over time and need to be addressed during planning by establishing sound practices for initial implementation and longterm vegetation management. Key Words: beta diversity, dispersal limitation, homogenization, invasive species, Iowa, Minnesota, priority effects, South Dakota, species richness, wetland restoration INTRODUCTION effort to track the recovery of restored wetlands. Monitoring of mitigation restorations is typically limited to 3-5 years under regulatory programs to ensure compliance with permit conditions (Mitsch and Wilson 1996) while other wetland restorations are generally not monitored. Consequently, generalizations on restored wetland development are not often possible due to the paucity of long-term data and the lack of replication at the regional scale (Zedler 2000). Comprehensive, long-term monitoring of abiotic and biotic ecosystem parameters provide the best scientific basis for improving practice, but it is generally cost and time prohibitive. Vegetation responses to restoration actions, however, have been effective for detecting lags in recovery (e.g., Gibson et al. 1994, Galatowitsch and van der Valk 1996a). Twenty years ago, the U.S. adopted a federal policy of ‘‘no net loss’’ for wetlands, following George H.W. Bush’s presidential campaign pledge (1988). Under this policy, wetland losses that cannot be avoided must be mitigated through restoration or creation. The science and practice of wetland restoration received limited attention before the era of ‘‘no net loss’’ (Whigham 1999) and so implementation proceeded based on trial and error. Because wetland ecosystems likely take decades or centuries to recover (Joosten 1995, Mitsch and Wilson 1996), long-term ecological studies are critical for advancing the scientific basis for wetland restoration decision-making. Unfortunately, the ‘‘no net loss’’ policy experiment was not linked to any systematic 883 884 For example, the lower-than-expected productivity of Spartina foliosa in Sweetwater Marsh reflected problems in sediment nitrogen levels unlikely to selfcorrect over time because of site preparation and hydrologic design of the project (Gibson et al. 1994). Poor growth of Spartina limited the suitability of the restored wetland for key species, such as the clapper rail, which was a focus of the mitigation. Vegetation composition and abundance will frequently reflect the hydrology and sediment characteristics of wetlands so these are typically important diagnostic traits. Understanding how restored wetland communities deviate from natural conditions and how long those abnormal deviations persist can provide important insights into the mechanisms of recovery and offer key guidance for assessing the status of future restorations (Galatowitsch 2006). Thousands of wetlands restored in the late 1980s under the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) of the 1985 Food Security Act presented an important opportunity to advance wetland science and practice. While these programs initially were motivated by concerns over soil loss and water quality impairment, they soon became recognized as the first potential opportunity for landscape-scale habitat restoration in North America. Confidence was so high at the start of CRP that federal agencies had no provisions for ecological monitoring of completed projects. Insights from CRP have come primarily from individual researchers who studied particular aspects of the recovery of these ecosystems (e.g., LaGrange and Dinsmore 1989, Delphey and Dinsmore 1993). One such study assessed the vegetation response to reflooding for 64 wetlands in the southern prairie pothole region, the glaciated terrain in Minnesota and adjacent Iowa and South Dakota that once was a complex of tallgrass prairie and freshwater wetlands and is now predominantly corn (Galatowitsch and van der Valk 1995, 1996b). Prairie pothole wetlands were widely considered among the simplest to restore because hydrophytic plants were expected to recolonize efficiently from long-lived seedbanks and propagules dispersed by waterfowl (Galatowitsch and van der Valk 1996a). Therefore, restorations consisted of reflooding by removal of ditches and tile lines, but did not include planting or follow-up vegetation management. Within three years of reflooding, Galatowitsch and van der Valk (1996b) observed that some plant guilds were able to recolonize newly flooded habitats rapidly while others were not arriving and establishing. Remnant seedbanks were depleted after decades of drainage and cultivation (Wienhold and van der Valk 1989); colonization differences likely reflected differential dispersal ability (Galatowitsch WETLANDS, Volume 28, No. 4, 2008 and van der Valk 1996b, Kettenring 2006). Nine years later, surveys of these same restorations showed colonization lags persisted for some guilds, notably sedge meadow and wet prairie species. As importantly, they showed that the overall rate of plant colonization corresponded to wetland isolation in the landscape (Mulhouse and Galatowitsch 2003). Insights from observing these wetlands periodically during the first 12 years following restoration suggested it may be necessary to plant some species that have minimal capacity to disperse in the now highly fragmented landscapes of this region and that re-assembly of communities could be accelerated by selecting restoration sites proximate to natural wetlands. After a decade, the consequence of slow recolonization of the native flora was clear: a few invasive species (especially Phalaris arundinacea) dominated nearly all sites (Mulhouse and Galatowitsch 2003). Longer-term data were needed to determine if invasive species have arrested succession in these restorations and if further reassembly would occur despite isolation and competition (Galatowitsch 2006). In 2007, 37 of the remaining 39 restored wetlands surveyed by Galatowitsch and van der Valk (1995) and Mulhouse and Galatowitsch (2003) were revisited. This study represents one of the longest data sets on revegetation and community development of restored wetlands. Restored in 1988, these 37 wetlands have been surveyed five times in the last 19 years. This extensive, regional data set allows us to examine the long-term community development of restored prairie pothole wetlands. The restoration of multiple, discrete prairie pothole wetlands such as these allows us to examine community assembly including the importance of stochastic processes and priority effects on restoration projects (Young et al. 2005, Chase 2007). Using this data set, we have examined 1) the development of plant diversity and wetland plant guilds over 19 years, 2) species turnover and changes in beta diversity over time, 3) the importance of dispersal limitation and priority effects in structuring these communities, and 4) how successful restored prairie pothole wetlands are in supporting the plant diversity typical of remnant natural wetlands. METHODS Study sites consisted of thirty-seven 19-year old restored upland depressional wetlands located in northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, and southeastern South Dakota (for site map see Mulhouse and Galatowitsch 2003). These wetlands are all situated on soils typical for poorly drained depressional Aronson & Galatowitsch, DEVELOPMENT OF RESTORED PRAIRIE POTHOLES features in the region, i.e., calcareous clay-loams and silty clay loams (cumulic haplaquolls, typic haplaquolls) or highly decomposed organic deposits (sapric and hemic) (Galatowitsch 1993). All of the restorations were conducted in 1988 by breaking tiles, plugging ditches, and retaining water with dikes to achieve a semi-permanent or seasonal water regime (Galatowitsch and van der Valk 1996b). While most of these restorations were part of the federal Conservation Reserve Program, a few in Minnesota were restored under a similar state program, Reinvest-In-Minnesota. All restorations were in active cultivation immediately prior to restoration (Galatowitsch and van der Valk 1995). Wetland and aquatic plants have not been planted in the restorations, so the flora reflects natural colonizations from seed banks or dispersal. The original study, performed between 1989 and 1991, consisted of 64 wetlands (Galatowitsch and van der Valk 1995). In 2007, 39 wetlands remained. The majority of sites were lost to reconversion to agricultural production between 1991 and 2000 (Mulhouse and Galatowitsch 2003). Two additional sites were lost between 2000 and 2007. In 2007, one site greater than 9 ha was eliminated from the study because it became impossible to ensure the reliability of a comprehensive floristic survey with dense vegetative cover and unconsolidated sediments over large areas. One other site could not be sampled because property access was not granted. Vegetation Survey Wetlands were surveyed during mid-summer visits in five sample years: 1989, 1990, 1991, 2000, and 2007, repeating the approach described in Mulhouse and Galatowitsch (2003). In every year, a complete floristic list was compiled, and species cover was estimated for each wetland zone present at a site. The vegetation of typical prairie potholes develop into zones corresponding with the depth and duration of flooding (Galatowitsch and van der Valk 1996b). These zones typically form in concentric rings of open water, mudflat, emergent, wet meadow, and buffer (i.e., area between wet meadow and cultivated land). In the initial surveys done from 1989 to 1991, some zones were not yet completely developed. Therefore, surveys were done at the vegetated margin at the high water line in addition to the open water and mudflat to capture the developing emergent and wet meadow zones. Zone classifications were made on site according to vegetation type and hydrology. Within each zone, the cover of each species was estimated using a seven-point scale (Mueller-Dombois and Ellenberg 885 1974) consisting of the following cover classes: r 5 one individual with insignificant cover, + 5 few individuals with insignificant cover, 1 5 1%–5% cover, 2 5 . 5%–25% cover, 3 5 . 25%–50% cover, 4 5 . 50%–75% cover, and 5 5 . 75% cover. Some species were indistinguishable from each other in their vegetative states or due to hybridization; these were categorized into the following species groups: Amaranthus hybridus/retroflexus, Aster praealtus/simplex/lanceolatus, Bidens frondosa/vulgata, Calamagrostis canadensis/stricta, Echinochloa crusgalli/muricata, Potamogeton foliosus/pusillus, and Typha angustifolia/x glauca. Nomenclature follows Great Plain Flora Association (1986). Data Analyses To examine the changes in the entire regional restored flora, the total number of plant species observed across all wetland restorations was calculated for 1989 (representing initial establishment), 1991, 2000, and 2007. Obligate upland plants (USDA, NRCS 2007) were removed from all analyses. Species were classified into species guilds based on Galatowitsch and van der Valk (1994), Galatowitsch et al. (2000), and life history and wetland indicator status (USDA, NRCS 2007). These guilds included aquatic species, emergent perennials, sedge meadow perennials, wet prairie perennials, woody plants, native annuals, introduced annuals, and introduced perennials (Mulhouse and Galatowitsch 2003). To examine species turnover at the site-level, we calculated the total number of plant species observed at each wetland restoration for sample years 1991, 2000, and 2007. The change in species richness between 1991 and 2000 and between 2000 and 2007 was calculated as the difference between the two time periods and analyzed using repeated measures ANOVA (Proc MIXED in SAS version 9.1, SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA). The frequency of colonizations and extinctions between 1991 and 2000 and between 2000 and 2007 was calculated for each wetland. The difference in colonizations and extinctions between the two time periods was analyzed using repeated measures ANOVA (Proc MIXED in SAS version 9.1). The potential effects of wetland size, isolation, and hydrology on the proportion of change in species richness were also evaluated. Wetland size was determined from field topographic surveys by using tile or surface outlets as the maximum pool (Galatowitsch 1993). The size of these 37 wetlands ranged from 0.2–6.8 ha. Landscape isolation was 886 estimated to be the mean distance (m) to the four nearest natural wetlands, as described in Mulhouse and Galatowitsch (2003). Wetlands were classified based on the permanency of water in the deepest zone, following Stewart and Kantrud (1971). We assigned each wetland to a class based on the frequency of flooding into midsummer and on the vegetation found in the central, deepest zone. Frequency of flooding was determined from late summer aerial photography for federal crop compliance (National Agriculture Imagery Program), and from water depth records collected during vegetation surveys and by landowners. Five wetlands that were rarely or never flooded to midsummer and that lacked emergent and open water zones were classified as ephemeral or temporary (Class I/ II). Twelve wetlands that were typically saturated but not flooded in midsummer and that had a central emergent zone where classified as seasonal (Class III). Twenty wetlands that were flooded through the summer in most years and had a central open water zone (with rooted submersed aquatics) were classified as semi-permanent (Class IV). The proportion of change in species richness was calculated for two time periods, 1991 to 2000 and 2000 to 2007, as the proportion of change in species richness between the sample years. Kruskal-Wallis non-parametric analysis of variance with SiegelTukey’s test for differences in dispersion (Proc NPAR1WAY in SAS version 9.1) was used to determine the differences among the three wetland classes in the proportion of the change in species richness for both time periods. Zar (1999) recommends the Siegel-Tukey procedure for non-parametric data. To test if wetland class was confounded with wetland size or landscape isolation, analysis of variance (Proc GLM in SAS version 9.1) was used to determine differences among wetland classes in wetland size and isolation. Wetland class was confounded with wetland size; there was a significant difference in size among wetland classes (ANOVA F 5 4.83, P 5 0.0136). Ephemeral wetlands on average are smaller (0.32 ha) than seasonal (1.04 ha) and semi-permanent wetlands (2.32 ha). Landscape isolation was not significantly different among wetland classes (ANOVA F 5 0.04, P 5 0.9596). We also explored the relationship between the number of species at each site as a function of landscape isolation, and wetland size/ flooding frequency for 2007 survey data using a factor-ceiling distribution as had previously been reported for 1991 and 2000 (Mulhouse and Galatowitsch 2003). We used multi-response permutation procedures (MRPP) on species composition data to test for WETLANDS, Volume 28, No. 4, 2008 changes in beta diversity for each wetland zone (wet meadow, emergent, and open water) among 1991, 2000, and 2007. The mudflat zone was combined with the emergent zone for all sample years because these zones lie at the same elevation. If significant differences were found among the three sample years, pairs of sample years were then tested for differences in composition using MRPP with a Bonferroni test of P 5 0.05 divided by the number of tests for each zone (four). MRPP is a nonparametric method for testing differences among pre-defined groups (McCune and Grace 2002). We used cover data for this analysis using the midpoints along the seven point scale (r 5 0.1%, + 5 0.5%, 1 5 3.5%, 2 5 15%, 3 5 37.5%, 4 5 62.5%, 5 5 87.5%). We performed MRPP on rank-transformed distance matrices with Sorensen’s distance measure. Multiresponse permutation procedures were performed using PCORD version 4.1 (McCune and Mefford 1999). Comparisons to natural wetland plant communities were done using a regional floristic list from Galatowitsch and van der Valk (1994). Each species was classified by the hydrologic zone were it was best represented, its life history guild, and its distribution (common, infrequent, rare). This list and was compiled from published floras (primarily Great Plains Flora Association 1986, Gleason and Cronquist 1991), state-generated species lists from Natural Heritage programs, and from herbarium records at Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa. The floristic list was reviewed by curators from the major herbarium collections in the region and other experienced wetland botanists (see Galatowitsch and van der Valk 1994). The common, infrequent, and rare species typical of natural wetlands were examined for presence in the 37 restored wetlands at any time period between 1989 and 2007. Common species of natural wetlands that were present in , 4, or , 10%, of the restored wetlands at any of the four sampling periods were also calculated. RESULTS Long-term Patterns in the Regional Restored Flora In 1989, the first year after restoration, the number of species present across all sites (i.e., regional species richness) was 125 (Table 1). Two years later, in 1991, the regional species richness increased by 10% to 138 species (6.5 species/yr). The majority of species accumulation occurred between 1991 and 2000. In these prairie wetlands, regional species richness increased from 1991 by 94% to 268 species in 2000 (14.4 species/yr). From 2000 to 2007, Aronson & Galatowitsch, DEVELOPMENT OF RESTORED PRAIRIE POTHOLES 887 Table 1. Species richness for 1989, 1991, 2000, 2007, and total richness of all years for 37 prairie pothole wetlands by guild. Species new to the flora and lost are presented for two time periods, 1991–2000 and 2000–2007. Species Richness Guild All Years 1989 1991 2000 2007 New to Flora 2000 New to Flora 2007 Species Lost 2000 Species Lost 2007 Aquatic Emergent Introduced annual Introduced perennial Native annual Sedge meadow Wet prairie Woody Total Richness 17 21 43 35 36 76 71 39 338 7 12 25 21 26 17 11 6 125 13 18 19 20 20 28 15 5 138 15 19 36 26 32 67 46 27 268 15 19 29 27 22 62 66 39 279 3 2 18 8 13 38 31 22 133 1 1 3 6 1 8 24 12 56 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 6 2 2 11 6 12 13 4 0 50 the total number of species increased by less than 5% to 279 species in 2007 (1.6 species/year). Changes in species richness for the regional flora differed by wetland plant guild. Within the first three years after restoration, both aquatic and emergent species rapidly established and species richness reached saturation. These guilds did not accumulate substantial species richness between 1991 and 2007 (Table 1). The aquatic species richness in 1991 represented over 75% of the total richness accumulated in the 19 years of this study. Over 85% of the emergent species that accumulated over the 19 years of this study were present by the third year. Likewise, introduced perennial species also rapidly established, with 60% of the total species present the first year after restoration. Species richness of introduced perennials gained only seven species from 1991 to 2007 (Table 1). In contrast, sedge meadow, wet prairie, and woody species exhibited the greatest increase in species colonization between the third and twelfth years. In 1991, , 40% of the sedge meadow species that accumulated over the 19-year study were present, while by 2000, 88% had colonized. The sedge meadow guild lost more species than it gained between 2000 and 2007, resulting in a decline in richness, from 67 to 62 species. Wet prairie and woody species continued to accumulate species between 2000 and 2007. In 2000, only 65% of wet prairie species and 69% of woody species observed in restorations had colonized. By 2007, 93% of wet prairie species and 100% of the woody flora had colonized (Table 1). The species richness of annual species, both introduced and native, was variable throughout the 19 years of this study, with natives declining between 2000 and 2007 (Table 1). Only six species were lost between 1991 and 2000 and included aquatic, emergent, invasive annual, invasive perennial, and native annual species (Ta- ble 1). Between 2000 and 2007, 51 species were lost. Over 85% of the species lost were present in two or fewer wetlands in 2000. Species lost between 2000 and 2007 were largely introduced and native annuals. In addition, there was a loss of 13 sedge meadow species between 2000 and 2007 (Table 1). Long-term Patterns at the Site-scale As in 2000, the factor-ceiling analysis in 2007 showed that as isolation increased, the maximum species richness decreased (Mulhouse and Galatowitsch 2003). Departures from this maximum were related to frequency of flooding and wetland size. Because there was no change in this relationship in 2007 (i.e., the slopes and intercepts are the same), the results are not shown. Patterns in species changes at the site scale corresponded to those at the regional scale. The average species richness of restorations decreased from 60.0 species in 2000 to 56.9 species in 2007. This followed a gain in average change in species richness between 1991 and 2000 of 38.0 species (Figure 1). The average change in species richness between the two time periods significantly differed (Repeated measures ANOVA, F 5 89.42, df 5 1, P , 0.0001). Between 1991 and 2000, all sites gained species. This gain in species richness ranged from nine to 97 species. Between 2000 and 2007, less than one-third of sites gained species. The change in species richness ranged from 222 to 23 species. Twenty-five sites lost species between 2000 and 2007. Change in species richness between 2000 and 2007 was related to wetland class, although this was not the case between 1991 and 2000. Between 1991 and 2000, ephemeral wetlands experienced changes in species richness ranging from 59% to 417%. The proportion of species richness change of seasonal wetlands ranged from 58% to 520% and for semi- 888 Figure 1. Average number of colonizations, extinctions, and the average change in species richness (SR) for 37 restored prairie pothole wetlands. Gray bars represent the time period between 1991–2000, white bars represent the time period between 2000–2007. Bars with different lowercase letters are significantly different within category; Colonizations: F 5 74.16, df 5 1, P , 0.0001; extinctions: F 5 87.50, df 5 1, P , 0.0001; SR: F 5 89.42, df 5 1, P , 0.0001. permanent wetlands the proportion of change in species richness ranged from 45% to 760%. There were no significant differences in the mean (Kruskal Wallis X2 5 1.23, df 5 2, P 5 0.5400) or dispersion (Siegel-Tukey X2 5 0.81, df 5 2, P 5 0.6700) of the proportion of change in species richness between 1991 and 2000 among wetland classes. The proportion of change in species richness between 2000 and 2007 varied greatly among wetland classes (Figure 2). All of the ephemeral wetlands experienced changes in species richness of . 10% (6). This was true for all but one of the seasonal wetlands as well. In contrast, changes in species richness were greater than 10% for only 30% of the semi-permanent wetlands (Figure 2). While there were no significant differences in the average proportion of species change among wetland classes (Kruskal Wallis X2 5 1.89, df 5 2, P 5 0.3900), there was a significant difference in dispersion among wetland classes (Siegel-Tukey X2 5 12.11, df 5 2, P 5 0.0023). Small, ephemeral wetlands experienced much greater variability in species richness change than did larger, semi-permanent wetlands (Figure 2). The overall rate of new species accumulation in restorations decreased between 2000 and 2007. New colonizations per site were significantly greater between 1991 and 2000 than between 2000 and 2007 (Repeated measures ANOVA, F 5 74.16, df 5 1, P , 0.0001), indicating rapid community assembly between 1991 and 2000 (Figure 1). Between 1991 and 2000, the average number of colonizations per WETLANDS, Volume 28, No. 4, 2008 Figure 2. Proportion of change in species richness between 2000 and 2007 (number of species in 2007/ number of species in 2000) for 37 restored prairie wetlands by wetland class. Black bars represent ephemeral wetlands, light grey bars represent seasonal wetlands, and dark grey bars represent semi-permanent wetlands. site was 45.0 (5 species/yr), approximately double the average colonizations (22.7) between 2000 and 2007 (3.2 species/yr). Extinctions however, significantly increased between 2000 and 2007 when compared to extinctions between 1991 and 2000 (Repeated measures ANOVA, F 5 87.50, df 5 1, P , 0.0001). The average number of species extinctions in 2000 (6.8, 0.8/yr) increased by almost 300% in 2007 (19.8, 2.8/yr) (Figure 1). The vegetation of the wetland zones, open water, emergent, and wet meadow, exhibited change over time (Table 2, Figure 3). In the open water zone, there was little change in the most frequently observed species over time (Table 2). In all years, Potamogeton foliosus/pusillus, P. pectinatus, and Lemna minor were among the most frequently observed species in the open water zone. In 1991, P. nodosus and P. zosteriformis were also frequent. In 2000 and 2007, Ceratophyllum demersum was a common species. In all years, P. foliosus/pusillus was the dominant taxa in terms of percent cover. Statistically, the vegetation composition of the open water zone did not significantly differ between 1991 and 2000 or between 2000 and 2007 (Table 3). However, the open water vegetation of 1991 was significantly different from the vegetation of 2007 (Table 3). The open water community was significantly more similar across all sites in 2007 than the vegetation of 1991 (Table 3). The vegetation of the emergent zone exhibited greater differences in species composition across time than the open water zone (Table 2). Multiresponse permutation procedure showed a signifi- 89.5 73.7 57.9 47.4 31.6 50.0 50.0 46.7 43.3 43.3 40.0 52.9 44.1 38.2 35.3 35.3 Potamogeton foliosus/pusillus Potamogeton pectinatus Lemna minor Potamogeton nodosus Potamogeton zosteriformis Polygonum amphibium Scirpus fluviatilis Lemna minor Amaranthus rudis Typha angustifolia/x glauca Echinochloa crusgalli/ muricata Elytrigia repens Cirsium arvense Bromus inermis Ambrosia artemisiifolia Phalaris arundinacea 27.1 9.0 38.2 4.8 16.1 0.9 17.4 32.0 3.6 7.9 11.2 11.2 6.4 5.4 1.1 0.4 Cover Freq 62.5 58.3 41.7 41.7 37.5 83.3 75.0 72.2 69.4 66.7 61.1 100 92.3 78.4 78.4 75.7 73.0 2000* Open Water Potamogeton foliosus/pusillus Potamogeton pectinatus Ceratophyllum demersum Lemna minor Najas flexilis Emergent Phalaris arundinacea Scirpus fluviatilis Scirpus validus Eleocharis palustris Typha angustifolia/x glauca Polygonum amphibium Wet Meadow Phalaris arundinacea Cirsium arvense Asclepias syriaca Polygonum amphibium Aster praealtus/simplex/lanceolatus Rumex crispus 44.6 8.1 1.2 0.7 2.8 0.7 13.8 22.3 4.7 10.1 43.4 1.0 32.3 24.5 0.8 9.1 13.8 Cover Phalaris arundinacea Polygonum amphibium Scirpus fluviatilis Aster praeltus/simplex/lancelolatus Cirsium arvense Asclepias incarnata Solidago canadensis Scirpus fluviatilis Phalaris arundinacea Polygonum amphibium Typha angustifolia/x glauca Scirpus validus Lemna minor Potamogeton pectinatus Lemna minor Ceratophyllum demersum Potamogeton foliosus/pusillus Lemna trisulca Spirodela polyrrhiza 2007* 100 82.9 80.0 77.1 74.3 71.4 71.4 93.5 90.3 77.4 77.4 74.2 58.1 90.9 81.8 68.2 68.2 59.1 50.0 Freq 66.0 3.72 4.1 3.4 1.0 0.5 1.7 22.3 22.5 3.3 56.3 4.2 23.1 29.7 21.7 7.8 47.2 15.9 7.6 Cover * The number of sites surveyed in 1991 was 19 in the open water zone, 30 in the emergent zone, and 34 in the wet meadow zone. The number of sites surveyed in 2000 was 24 in the open water zone, 36 in the emergent zone, and 37 in the wet meadow zone. The number of sites surveyed in 2007 was 22 in the open water zone, 31 in the emergent zone, and 35 in the wet meadow zone. Freq 1991* Zone Table 2. Dominant species in each wetland zone represented by frequency and average percent cover for sample years 1991, 2000, and 2007. The six most frequently occurring species observed in greater than one-third of sites surveyed in each zone in each year are listed with their percent occurrence across all sites. Average percent cover where present of each species are also listed. Aronson & Galatowitsch, DEVELOPMENT OF RESTORED PRAIRIE POTHOLES 889 890 WETLANDS, Volume 28, No. 4, 2008 Table 3. Ranked transformed MRPP using Sorensen’s distance measure on cover data of three wetland zones in 37 restored prairie pothole wetlands. Results are for pairs of sample years for each wetland zone. Average Sorensen’s Distance 1991 Figure 3. Average Sorensen’s dissimilarity measure by sample year for each wetland zone. The vegetation of the wet meadow zone ( ) was significantly different among sample years (A 5 0.175, P , 0.0001). Emergent vegetation (#) was also significantly different among sample years (A 5 0.122, P , 0.0001). Open water (.) vegetation was significantly different among sample years (A 5 0.089, P , 0.0001). N cant difference in the species composition of the emergent zone among all sample years (Table 3, Figure 3). On average, Typha angustifolia/x glauca had the greatest percent cover (43.4% and 56.3%) of any species in 2000 and 2007 (Table 2). In 1991, Typha angustifolia/x glauca only had an average of 7.9% cover. Phalaris arundinacea was observed in the emergent zones of over 90% of the sites surveyed in 2007 but only 20% of sites surveyed in 1991. In all years, Polygonum amphibium, Scirpus fluviatilis, and Typha angustifolia/x glauca were among the most frequently observed species (Table 2). The beta diversity of the emergent zone decreased among sites over time, with 1991 having the greatest average Sorensen’s dissimilarity and 2007 having the smallest average Sorensen’s dissimilarity (Table 3, Figure 3). In the wet meadow zone, Phalaris arundinacea was observed in 100% of sites in 2000 and 2007, but only 35% of 1991 sites. Of the most frequently occurring species, P. arundinacea and Cirsium arvense were the only wet meadow zone species common in all years. In 2000 and 2007, P. arundinacea was by far the most dominant species with an average of 44.6% cover in 2000 and 66.0% cover in 2007. Species composition over time was significantly different (Table 3, Figure 3). However, the vegetation assemblages of 2000 and 2007 were more similar in composition to each other than to 1991 (Table 3). The beta diversity of the wet meadow zone appears to be converging with time; Sorensen’s dissimilarity significantly decreased across time, with 1991 having the greatest average 2000 Wet Meadow 1991–2000 0.6655 2000–2007 1991–2007 0.6581 0.2183 0.5903 Emergent 1991–2000 2000–2007 1991–2007 0.3151 0.5673 Open Water 1991–2000 2000–2007 1991–2007 0.6035 0.6371 0.5243 0.5643 0.4244 0.5693 2007 A P 0.3610 0.1678 0.135 ,0.0001 0.042 0.0005 0.181 ,0.0001 0.3821 0.2354 0.108 ,0.0001 0.037 0.002 0.134 ,0.0001 0.4127 0.3027 0.0176* 0.029 0.0335* 0.121 ,0.0001 * Not significant after Bonferroni correction of P , 0.0125. distance (Table 3, Figure 3). The greatest decrease in Sorensen’s dissimilarity occurred between 1991 and 2000 (Figure 3). Comparison to the Flora of Natural Wetlands Over 22% of species common to natural wetlands have never colonized the restored wetlands surveyed in this study (Table 4). The majority of common species that never colonized were wet prairie (14) and sedge meadow (10) species. An additional 25 species considered common to natural wetlands were present in , 10% of restored wetlands over the 19 years of this study (Table 4). Of infrequent species found in natural wetlands, 70%, or 90 species, have never colonized the restored wetlands. Rare species of natural wetlands are most poorly represented in the restored wetland flora. More than 93% of rare species found in natural wetlands have not colonized the restored wetlands in this study. Only five out of 78 rare species listed have colonized the restored wetlands. DISCUSSION Clear patterns emerge from this long-term study of restored prairie pothole wetlands. First, regional plant species richness of restored wetlands stabilized within 19 years, with most reassembly occurring in the first 12 years following reflooding. Second, wetland plant guilds varied in their colonization efficiencies, with some guilds stabilizing after 3 years Aronson & Galatowitsch, DEVELOPMENT OF RESTORED PRAIRIE POTHOLES 891 Table 4. Species considered common to prairie potholes (Galatowitsch and van der Valk 1994) but missing from or present in less than 10% of study sites in the 37 restored prairie pothole wetlands surveyed 19 years post-restoration. Guild Missing Species Aquatic Wolffia columbiana Emergent Glyceria striata Iris shrevei Sagittaria cuneata , 10% Species Ricciocarpus natans Introduced Annual Polygonum hydropiper* Native Annual Eragrostis hypnoides Hordeum pusillus Cyperus aristatus* Eleocharis obtusa Panicum capillare Sedge Meadow Amorpha fruticosa Cardamine pensylvanica Carex hystericina Equisetum pratense Lysimachia hybrida Ranunculus cymbalaria Senecio aureus Stellaria crassifolia Veronica anagallis-aquatica Veronica peregrine Aster novae-angliae* Calamagrostis canadensis/stricta Caltha palustris Carex stipata Carex stricta Cicuta maculata Lippia lanceolata* Lycopus uniflorus Lysimachia ciliata Lysimachia quadrifolia Stellaria longifolia Wet Prairie Agrostis hyemalis Allium canadense Anemone canadensis Cirsium flodmanii Galium obtusum Heracleum sphondylium Hypoxis hirsuta Liatris ligulistylis Liatris pycnostachya Phlox pilosa Pycnanthemum virginianum Senecio pauperculus Thalictrum dasycarpum Veronicastrum virginicum Cerastium nutans* Cyperus odoratus Desmodium canadense Helenium autumnale* Lathyrus palustris Lobelia spicata Silphium laciniatum Silphium perfoliatum Woody Salix discolor Salix petiolaris Salix rigida Salix amygdaloides * Not observed at any sites in 2007. while others are still accumulating species after 19 years. Third, the vegetation of the wetland zones across all sites was converging with time, resulting in a decrease of beta diversity and the biotic simplification of the regional restored wetland flora. Fourth, larger, semi-permanent wetlands experienced less species change and therefore greater community stability than smaller, drier wetlands. Finally, restored wetlands, even after nearly 20 years of community development, do not function to support the plant diversity of natural wetlands. The patterns found in this study indicate that the assembly of communities in prairie pothole wetlands after restoration is driven primarily by stochastic processes (e.g., Chase 2007). These communities are primarily dispersal assembled communities with strong priority effects driven by invasive plant species. Long-term Patterns in the Regional Restored Flora It is clear from this study that the majority of the flora present in restored prairie pothole wetlands will colonize in the first 12 years after restoration. The greatest increase in species richness occurred between years three and 12 and we observed only minor additions to the flora in the last seven years, 892 indicating that the first 12 years of a restoration is the most important for community assembly. Now that species accumulation has slowed and extinctions are higher than new colonizations in these restorations, it is unlikely that significant species accumulation will occur in the future. Species richness has stabilized and new additions will be minor. However, this pattern could not have been detected if the surveys of these restored wetlands had not extended over two decades. According to the efficient community hypothesis, vegetation should reassemble rapidly after the abiotic conditions are restored (Galatowitsch and van der Valk 1996a). Because these restorations took 10 to 20 years for the development of the vegetation to stabilize after hydrology was restored, they are much less efficient than was widely presumed by practitioners. Analysis of species guilds shows, however, that colonization efficiency varies greatly, with three of seven guilds capable of rapid reassembly. This efficiency likely stems from differences in propagule pressure, dispersal ability, and the availability of safe sites for establishment. With wetland losses across this region exceeding 90% (Dahl and Johnson 1991), most of the suitable habitat for hydrophytic species occurs along roadside ditches, which are nearly universally dominated by invasive perennials, such as Phalaris arundinacea and Typha angustifolia/x glauca. In a study of seed rain in wetlands within this region, Kettenring (2006) found that introduced/invasive species (including Typha and Phalaris) accounted for . 90% of seed rain in natural wetlands and 77% in restored wetlands. Not surprisingly, introduced/invasive perennials are one of the high-efficiency guilds in this region. Species in the other two high efficiency guilds, submersed and floating aquatics and emergent perennials, likely benefited from dispersal by waterbirds (primarily ducks) that make frequent trips between wetlands with open water (LaGrange and Dinsmore 1989, Delphey and Dinsmore 1993, Mueller and van der Valk 2002). Waterfowl are estimated to disperse seeds between 20 to 30 km and possibly up to 1,400 km (Mueller and van der Valk 2002). Therefore, although these restored wetlands are isolated between 0.2 and 2.6 km from natural wetlands (Mulhouse and Galatowitsch 2003), the aquatic and emergent guilds are effective colonizers even in this highly fragmented agricultural landscape. Three guilds of native perennials that are low efficiency colonizers, wet prairie, sedge meadow, and woody species, lack the advantage of either high propagule availability or a reliable dispersal vector (Galatowitsch and van der Valk 1996a). Consequently, species in these guilds are potentially WETLANDS, Volume 28, No. 4, 2008 limited by the lack of safe sites, pre-empted by dense stands of perennial grasses (primarily Phalaris, but also Bromus inermis) that form monotypic stands around the perimeter of nearly all sites. Phalaris has been shown to preclude simultaneously establishing native species (Reinhardt Adams and Galatowitsch 2006) by its ability to rapidly establish and grow (Reinhardt Adams and Galatowitsch 2005), limiting light availability to slower growing native perennials (Wetzel and van der Valk 1998). Long-term Patterns at the Site-scale Competition with invasive species is one explanation for the loss in sedge meadow species observed between 2000 and 2007; these losses were anticipated because most species observed in 2000 were represented only by small populations (Mulhouse and Galatowitsch 2003). Over 85% of the extinctions that occurred between 2000 and 2007 were species with small populations (i.e., few individuals previously recorded) at only one or two of the 37 wetlands surveyed. In addition to competitive exclusion, small populations are more likely to suffer stochastic extinctions (Shaffer 1981, Soulé 1986), particularly in isolated habitats in fragmented landscapes (Saunders et al. 1991) and due to typical hydrologic fluctuations. Another explanation is that small populations were not found again because of low detectability. Finally, management activities at some wetlands, particularly herbicide treatment of Cirsium arvense, may have affected many forb species that occupy the wetland perimeter (personal observations in all study years). The beta diversity of these wetlands decreased over time showing biotic simplification of the wetland flora; this pattern was most pronounced for the emergent and wet meadow zones. Invasive Typha angustifolia/x glauca and Phalaris arundinacea became more frequent and increased in dominance across the restored wetlands particularly between 2000 and 2007 and could be driving the biotic simplification of the emergent and wet meadow zones, respectively. In this study, it was not possible to analyze the relationship between native species diversity and invasive species due to the high abundance of the invasive species in all years at all sites. Both Typha angustifolia/x glauca and Phalaris arundinacea form dense, monodominant stands, with little available space or light for other species (Werner and Zedler 2002, Maurer et al. 2003). In Pennsylvania, low species richness of created wetlands was attributed to both dispersal limitations of natives and the invasion of Typha spp. at the created wetlands (Campbell et al. 2002). Aronson & Galatowitsch, DEVELOPMENT OF RESTORED PRAIRIE POTHOLES After almost 20 years, these restorations lack the expansive sedge meadows typical of prairie pothole wetlands in this region (Galatowitsch and van der Valk 1994). Only four restorations had Carex species cover over 30% by 2007. Phalaris quickly established after restoration and was present at 35% of the restored wetlands in 1991, with large populations at some sites. In contrast, no restorations had Carex spp. cover of more than 15% in 1991. This lack of an early developing sedge meadow zone on all but a few sites would have allowed Phalaris to overtake available suitable habitat and quickly dominate (Wetzel and van der Valk 1998, Budelsky and Galatowitsch 2000, Green and Galatowitsch 2001, Perry et al. 2004, Reinhardt Adams and Galatowitsch 2006). In these restored wetlands, Phalaris established early and the priority effects of this species are still evident today. We observed that smaller, drier wetlands are floristically less stable in the long term than larger, semi-permanent wetlands, exhibiting greater turnover in species richness between sampling intervals. The hydrology of shallow, natural wetlands is more sensitive to annual variability in precipitation (Winter 2000), not only drying earlier each year, but also experiencing more years with no standing water. In a wet year, rapid colonizers, such as some aquatic and emergent plants, may appear on a site but then disappear during years of below-average rainfall. In contrast, deeper, semipermanent wetlands will be more likely to have at least small areas of saturated or flooded habitat in a given year, serving as refugial sites in all but the most severe droughts. Another cause of rapid species turnover in small, temporarily flooded restored wetlands could be that they are hydrologically anomalous compared to natural, temporary wetlands or semipermanent wetlands. Because of federal guidelines, restored wetlands almost universally have a dike constructed at the outlet, formed by excavating a deep depression within the basin (Galatowitsch and van der Valk 1994). When the volume of water stored in a wetland is low (as is the case in temporary wetlands), it is confined to this small excavated area, rather than saturating the soil across the wetland basin. These restored wetlands are not developing a sedge meadow flora, but instead have a small area that alternates between open water and mudflat, with most of the basin persistently dry. Comparison to the Flora of Natural Wetlands While common species appear to succeed, at least in terms of species richness, in restored wetlands, infrequent and rare species of natural wetlands do 893 not. Infrequent and rare species found in natural wetlands are poorly represented in these restored wetlands. The majority of species common to natural wetlands that have never been found in these 37 restored wetlands were sedge meadow and wet prairie perennials. For example, 16 of the 40 common Carex species were not found in the restorations. Low propagule pressure, poor dispersal ability (Galatowitsch and van der Valk 1996c, Seabloom and van der Valk 2003), and competition with invasive plant species (Green and Galatowitsch 2002) are likely limiting to many species, including these Carex spp., that are now restricted to only a handful of small protected areas (Kettenring 2006). In addition, these 19-year old restored wetlands still have a higher abundance of annuals than do natural wetlands, including Amaranthus rudis, Bidens cernua, Polygonum pensylvanicum, and Rorippa palustris. These annuals are often highly associated with restored prairie pothole wetlands (Seabloom and van der Valk 2003, Galatowitsch and van der Valk 1996a). In addition, Phalaris arundinacea, one of the dominant species of all wetlands studied here, although found in natural wetlands is not as abundant or widespread as it is in restored wetlands (Galatowitsch and van der Valk 1996a). In emergent wetlands in Connecticut, 12-year old created wetlands were dominated by invasive species, mainly Phragmites australis, while native species, Carex stricta and Typha latifolia, dominated at natural wetlands (Moore et al. 1999). CONCLUSIONS Over the past 20 years, implementation of the ‘‘no net loss’’ wetland policy progressed from the simple goal of avoiding losses in aerial extent, to maintaining the wetland base within a locale and the distribution of habitat types (e.g., Zedler 1996). Advancing restoration standards so these habitats reliably support a comparable level of biodiversity to natural wetlands remains a critical need (Zedler 2000). Restored wetlands may fail to provide expected biodiversity support because there has not been adequate time for recovery and reassembly or because there are abiotic and/or biotic barriers that are likely to persist. In the case of prairie pothole restorations, results of our long-term study suggests that the recovery/reassembly phase lasted approximately a decade, and that the vegetation of these sites will not eventually resemble that of natural wetlands. Biotic barriers, chiefly the differential in colonization efficiency between invasive and native perennials, limited the recovery of all study wetlands, whereas abiotic barriers (i.e., 894 unfavorable hydrology) may be important in seasonal and ephemeral wetlands. Our findings demonstrate that addressing both biotic and abiotic barriers to recovery is necessary when planning, designing, and implementing wetland restorations so they support typical levels of biodiversity for that habitat type. To ensure a higher level of recovery of prairie pothole restorations, we outline five guidelines based on this long-term study. First, the selection of restoration sites should be prioritized near remnant natural wetlands in order to increase propagule pressure and decrease dispersal limitation of native perennials. Landscape isolation has been shown to be an important factor in the dispersal limitation of aquatic plants (Godwin 1923). With reduced isolation, recovery of species in the sedge meadow and wet prairie guilds increases (Galatowitsch 2006). Second, restoration of semi-permanently flooded wetlands along with seasonal and ephemeral wetlands should be implemented. Historically, wetlands in the prairie pothole region were part of complexes of small and large wetlands. Semi-permanent wetlands are key elements of wetland complexes as they are floristically more stable than ephemeral and seasonal wetlands. Third, less frequently flooded wetlands (seasonal to ephemeral) should not be constructed by excavating pits to make dikes, which limits soil saturation across the basin and instead creates hydrological ‘‘flashy’’ pits favoring shortlived annuals and aquatics rather than sedge meadow and wet prairie perennials. Fourth, active revegetation via planting of vegetative stock and seeding of native sedge meadow and wet prairie perennials is necessary to ensure restoration success. Restored wetlands can efficiently resemble natural wetlands with planting (Galatowitsch 2006). Planting is especially important for low efficiency guilds. Planting native species early in the restoration process to establish canopy cover will also reduce the available habitat for Phalaris arundinacea (Lindig-Cisneros and Zedler 2002, Maurer et al. 2003). Finally, control of invasive plants species, such as Phalaris and Typha, is essential to maximize biodiversity. Control of Phalaris must start early in the restoration process so that native communities are allowed to establish (Green and Galatowitsch 2001) and must be factored into long-term management plans. For existing restored wetlands in the region, facilitating additional species accumulation may actually be more problematic because removing biotic barriers is likely more difficult than allowing them to arise in the first place. Because the cover of invasive perennials is very high on all sites, eradica- WETLANDS, Volume 28, No. 4, 2008 tion will require herbicides and will often result in the loss of most of the species that have colonized over the past 20 years. Since seedbanks of the invasives are likely to be abundant, weed control would need to be pursued for many years. Without such measures, we anticipate that species turnover will continue to be driven by local extinctions, rather than colonizations, and will drive the vegetation composition over time. In the past decade, we observed that biotic homogenization of the flora has begun. This homogenization will likely trigger further declines in species richness (McKinney and Lockwood 2001) if management practices are not implemented. Following this loss of plant diversity and the lack of expansive sedge meadows, it can be expected that other taxa, such as the avian communities will also decrease (Delphey and Dinsmore 1993). The restoration of wetlands in the prairie pothole region to support regional biodiversity is of critical importance. Given the guidelines we have outlined above, we believe restored prairie pothole wetlands can support this regional biodiversity. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We thank Paul Wetzel and Eric Seabloom who provided helpful suggestions for data analysis. The University of Minnesota’s Fesler-Lampert Endowment provided financial support. LITERATURE CITED Budelsky, R. A. and S. M. Galatowitsch. 2000. 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