Planning for the Schools of Tomorrow
School Enrollment Projections Series
Community Unit School District #95
July 2014
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School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
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Table of Contents
Part I: District Enrollment Projections .................................................................................................. 1
Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 1
Comparing Past Projections to Actual Enrollment ............................................................................... 1
District Enrollment History ................................................................................................................... 3
Kindergarten Enrollment Trends .......................................................................................................... 7
Birth Trends and Projections ................................................................................................................ 8
Population Estimates and Projections .................................................................................................. 9
Residential Development .................................................................................................................... 14
Method ............................................................................................................................................... 17
School Enrollment Projections, 2014-2023 ........................................................................................ 19
Baseline Projections ........................................................................................................................ 19
5 Year Trend Projections ................................................................................................................. 20
3 Year Trend Projections ................................................................................................................. 21
Kindergarten Trend Projections ...................................................................................................... 22
Comparison of Projection Models ...................................................................................................... 23
District Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 27
Part II: Individual School Projections .................................................................................................. 28
Elementary Schools ............................................................................................................................. 28
Issac Fox Elementary School ............................................................................................................... 29
May Whitney Elementary School ....................................................................................................... 35
Sarah Adams Elementary School ........................................................................................................ 41
Seth Paine Elementary School ............................................................................................................ 47
Spencer Loomis Elementary School .................................................................................................... 53
Middle Schools .................................................................................................................................... 59
Middle School North ........................................................................................................................... 60
Middle School South ........................................................................................................................... 65
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
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School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
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Part I: District Enrollment Projections
Introduction
This report offers a summary of the Enrollment Projections Analysis completed for the Community
Unit School District #95 by the Applied Population Laboratory (APL), University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Projections for 2014/15-2023/24 are provided for the district as a whole, and individually for each
grade and grade grouping as well as individual school projections. The projection process uses a
combination of historical enrollment data, birth trends and projections, housing starts data, and
population trends and projections to create reasonable assumptions about future growth scenarios
and the likely impact on the school district.
Comparing Past Projections to Actual Enrollment
The APL completed an enrollment projections analysis for the Community Unit School District #95
during the 2010/11 school year, allowing comparison of these past projections to recent district
enrollment. The following table shows past projections models and current enrollment counts so that
a model comparison can be made. Table A compares projections completed in 2010 to actual
enrollment of the last three years for K-12 and by grade grouping.
For all three school years, the Baseline model was the most accurate for grades K-12 and grades 68. No one model was more reliable for grades K-5, while the 3 Year Trend model was more reliable for
grades 9-12. The district enrollment continues to decline over time and at a slightly faster pace than
projected. As is the case with projection models, the error rates (although low) increased over time.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
1
TABLE A
Comparison of Actual Enrollment with Projected Enrollment by Model
Lake Zurich School District #95
Actual
Baseline
5 Year
3 Year
Kindergarten
2010 Projections
13-14
11-12
12-13
5,865
5,847
5,741
5,868
5,776
5,636
5,858
5,759
5,613
5,849
5,739
5,583
5,857
5,750
5,620
Actual
Baseline
5 Year
3 Year
Kindergarten
2010 Projections
11-12
12-13
13-14
2,347
2,357
2,338
2,355
2,341
2,304
2,356
2,341
2,305
2,338
2,311
2,264
2,355
2,332
2,313
Actual
Baseline
5 Year
3 Year
Kindergarten
2010 Projections
11-12
12-13
13-14
1,421
1,427
1,373
1,425
1,410
1,347
1,418
1,400
1,334
1,417
1,390
1,315
1,418
1,400
1,334
Actual
Baseline
5 Year
3 Year
Kindergarten
2010 Projections
11-12
12-13
13-14
2,097
2,063
2,030
2,088
2,024
1,985
2,083
2,018
1,973
2,095
2,039
2,004
2,083
2,018
1,973
K-12 Enrollment
Absolute Error
12-13
13-14
11-12
3
-7
-16
-8
-71
-88
-108
-97
K-5 Enrollment
Absolute Error
11-12
12-13
-16
-16
-46
-25
6-8 Enrollment
Absolute Error
11-12
12-13
Percent Error
11-12
12-13
13-14
-105
-128
-158
-121
0.05%
-0.13%
-0.27%
-0.14%
13-14
Percent Error
11-12
12-13
13-14
8
9
-9
8
-34
-33
-74
-25
0.34%
0.37%
-0.40%
0.34%
13-14
11-12
-17
-26
-27
-39
-37
-58
-27
-39
9-12 Enrollment
Absolute Error
11-12
12-13
13-14
0.27%
-0.18%
-0.31%
-0.18%
4
-3
-4
-3
-9
-14
-2
-14
-39
-45
-24
-45
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
-45
-57
-26
-57
11-12
-0.43%
-0.65%
-0.10%
-0.65%
-1.22%
-1.50%
-1.84%
-1.66%
-0.69%
-0.67%
-1.95%
-1.06%
-1.83%
-2.24%
-2.75%
-2.10%
-1.45%
-1.41%
-3.17%
-1.08%
Percent Error
12-13
13-14
-1.16%
-1.86%
-2.61%
-1.86%
-1.92%
-2.83%
-4.26%
-2.83%
Percent Error
12-13
13-14
-1.87%
-2.20%
-1.18%
-2.20%
-2.22%
-2.79%
-1.26%
-2.79%
2
Part I: District Enrollment History & Projections
Figure 1-A and Tables 1 and 2 display the last ten years of enrollment history in the Community
Unit School District #95. District enrollment has shown a decrease since 2004/05, from 6,438 students
in the 2004/05 school year to 5,741 students in 2013/14. This is a decline of 697 students, or a 11%
decrease in the number of students enrolled over this ten year period.
Community Unit School District #95
Figure 1-A
Student Enrollment
6,600
6,400
6,200
Students
6,000
5,800
5,600
5,400
5,200
5,000
04-05
05-06
06-07
07-08
08-09
09-10
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
10-11
11-12
12-13
13-14
3
TABLE 1
Student Enrollment
Community Unit School District 95
SCHOOL YEAR
08-09
09-10
04-05
05-06
06-07
07-08
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
394
413
427
474
492
496
541
560
518
596
534
534
459
388
462
424
437
485
505
509
557
560
529
597
526
532
358
445
464
434
440
497
510
512
571
571
507
597
518
352
408
450
485
443
461
509
514
506
583
565
510
592
346
399
424
460
493
444
460
515
511
524
588
569
517
TOTAL
6,438
6,511
6,424
6,378
K-12
K-5
6-8
9-12
6,438
2,696
1,619
2,123
6,511
2,701
1,626
2,184
6,424
2,638
1,593
2,193
6,378
2,599
1,529
2,250
10-11
11-12
12-13
13-14
351
410
396
420
464
481
450
460
528
543
534
583
544
336
380
405
407
420
469
487
451
462
530
551
532
593
297
384
393
420
420
433
466
496
459
488
529
558
522
314
360
412
407
437
427
447
488
492
483
483
535
562
317
363
380
424
415
439
421
457
495
519
498
491
522
6,250
6,164
6,023
5,865
5,847
5,741
6,250
2,566
1,486
2,198
6,164
2,522
1,438
2,204
6,023
2,417
1,400
2,206
5,865
2,347
1,421
2,097
5,847
2,357
1,427
2,063
5,741
2,338
1,373
2,030
TABLE 2
Student Enrollment Changes
Community Unit School District 95
ABSOLUTE CHANGE
PERCENT CHANGE
AVERAGE ANNUAL
PERCENT CHANGE
'04 to '13 '04 to '08 '09 to '13
GRADE
'04 to '13
'04 to '08
'09 to '13
'04 to '13
'04 to '08
'09 to '13
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
-77
-50
-47
-50
-77
-57
-120
-103
-23
-77
-36
-43
63
-48
-14
-3
-14
1
-52
-81
-45
-7
-72
54
35
58
-34
-47
-16
4
-49
-42
-29
-3
-33
-24
-36
-92
-22
-19.5
-12.1
-11.0
-10.5
-15.7
-11.5
-22.2
-18.4
-4.4
-12.9
-6.7
-8.1
13.7
-12.2
-3.4
-0.7
-3.0
0.2
-10.5
-15.0
-8.0
-1.4
-12.1
10.1
6.6
12.6
-9.7
-11.5
-4.0
1.0
-10.6
-8.7
-6.4
-0.7
-6.3
-4.4
-6.7
-15.8
-4.0
-2.2
-1.3
-1.2
-1.2
-1.7
-1.3
-2.5
-2.0
-0.5
-1.4
-0.7
-0.9
1.5
-3.0
-0.8
-0.2
-0.7
0.1
-2.6
-3.7
-2.0
-0.3
-3.0
2.5
1.6
3.2
-2.4
-2.9
-1.0
0.2
-2.6
-2.2
-1.6
-0.2
-1.6
-1.1
-1.7
-3.9
-1.0
TOTAL
-697
-188
-423
-10.8
-2.9
-6.9
-1.2
-0.7
-1.7
K-12
K-5
6-8
9-12
-697
-358
-246
-93
-188
-130
-133
75
-423
-184
-65
-174
-10.8
-13.3
-15.2
-4.4
-2.9
-4.8
-8.2
3.5
-6.9
-7.3
-4.5
-7.9
-1.2
-1.5
-1.7
-0.5
-0.7
-1.2
-2.1
0.9
-1.7
-1.8
-1.1
-2.0
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
4
Figure 1-B shows enrollment history broken down by grade groupings (K-5, 6-8, and 9-12). The
district has continued to decline at the elementary school level by 1.5% (annually). Middle school
enrollment has declined even more than the elementary grades (-1.7% annually) over the past decade.
Although high school has declined the least at 0.5% (annually), over the last five years enrollment has
dropped 2.0% (annually).
Community Unit School District #95
Figure 1-B
Student Enrollment by Grade Grouping
2,800
2,600
2,400
Students
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
04-05
05-06
06-07
07-08
08-09
K-5
09-10
6-8
10-11
11-12
12-13
13-14
9-12
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
5
Figure 1-C shows the age structure in Fall 2013 of the Community Unit School District #95 student
population with the number of kindergarteners at the bottom and the number of 12th graders at the
top of the graph. High school is the largest cohort of students with 12th grade containing the largest
number of students. In middle school the largest grade is 8th grade. The 3rd and 5th grades contain the
largest number of students in the elementary grades. The least number of students in the district is in
kindergarten with 317 students. This is not unusual for the Community Unit School District #95, as
some parents choose to enroll children in private kindergarten and then send their children to the
school district after kindergarten.
Community Unit School District #95
Figure 1-C
Age Structure, Fall 2013
12
522
11
491
10
498
9
519
8
495
Grade
7
457
6
421
5
439
4
415
3
424
2
380
1
363
K
317
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Number of Students Enrolled
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
6
Kindergarten Enrollment Trends
Examining trends in kindergarten enrollment is particularly informative for gaining perspective on
future district enrollment, as today’s kindergarteners will gradually make up tomorrow’s students at
the higher grade levels as they age and move through the school system. When kindergarten
enrollment is increasing, elementary school enrollment might be expected to increase in the near
future, while middle school enrollment may increase further in the future. Figure 2 shows
kindergarten enrollment history in black, and trend lines depicting kindergarten enrollment in red and
blue. The “Long Term Trend” line (shown in red) averages kindergarten enrollment changes between
2004/05 and 2013/14. The “Recent Trend” line emphasizes kindergarten enrollment changes over the
last five years. In the Community Unit School District #95, although kindergarten enrollment has
increased the last three years, the district has seen a declining trend in kindergarten enrollment.
Figure 2-A
450
Community Unit School District #95
Kindergarten Enrollment Trends
Projected
400
350
300
Students
250
200
150
100
50
0
Actual
Long Term Trend
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
Recent Trend
7
Birth Trends and Projections
We use historical and projected birth data to forecast the number of kindergarten students who
will enroll in the Community Unit School District #95in the future years. Figure 3 shows (in black) the
number of births to mothers living in the district area, by year, from 1993-2010, as collected from the
Illinois Center for Health Statistics. Both long term and recent trends are decreasing in the district
area. We extrapolate these birth trends into the future to correspond with our Baseline and Recent
Trend projection models, using the B:K grade progression ratios to predict future kindergarteners. The
red line in Figure 3 represents birth trends over the longer term. The blue line examines birth patterns
for the last seven years and corresponds to the Recent Trend models shown later in this report.
Figure 3
Community Unit School District #95
Area Births
600
Projected
500
400
300
200
100
0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Long Term Trend
Year
1993
1994
# of Births
527
480
Year
2002
2003
# of Births
400
404
Source: Illinois Department of Health
*Projected Births
1995
463
2004
390
Recent Trend
1996
480
2005
374
1997
436
2006
385
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
Actual
1998
422
2007
384
1999
394
2008
333
2000
405
2009
331
2001
374
2010
331*
8
Population Estimates and Projections
This section examines population trends of the municipalities within the district area, Lake County
and the State of Illinois. Changes in the total population of the district area, particularly when
examined by age, provide clues into how the school age population may be changing.
Table 3 and Figure 4-A provide population counts and estimates from 1990 to 2010. The municipal
populations can be compared with populations of Lake County and the State of Illinois. The district
area has increased in population from 2000 to 2010 at an annual rate of 1.4%.
TABLE 3
Total Population by Municipality: 1990-2010
Community Unit School District #95
POPULATION
Census
2000
Municipality
Census
1990
Deer Park
Hawthorn Woods
Kildeer
Lake Zurich
District Area
Lake County
State of Illinois
2,887
4,423
2,257
14,947
24,514
516,418
11,430,602
3,067
5,287
2,985
17,299
28,638
572,988
11,884,935
1990 to
1995
PERCENT CHANGE
1995 to
2000 to
2000
2005
Municipality
Deer Park
Hawthorn Woods
Kildeer
Lake Zurich
District Area
Lake County
State of Illinois
6.2%
19.5%
32.3%
15.7%
16.8%
11.0%
4.0%
est.
1995
1.1%
13.5%
15.9%
4.7%
7.1%
12.5%
4.5%
3,102
6,002
3,460
18,104
30,668
644,356
12,419,293
est.
2005
3,253
7,176
4,004
20,045
34,478
702,682
12,719,550
4.9%
19.6%
15.7%
10.7%
12.4%
9.1%
2.4%
Census
2010
3,200
7,663
3,968
19,631
34,462
703,462
12,830,632
2005 to
2010
AVG.
ANNUAL
2000-2010
-1.6%
6.8%
-0.9%
-2.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.9%
0.4%
3.1%
1.6%
0.9%
1.4%
1.0%
0.4%
Source: U. S. Census Bureau & Demographic Services Center, WIDOA
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
9
Community Unit School District #95
Figure 4-A
Population for Area Municipalities
25,000
20,000
Population
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1990
1995
Deer Park
2000
Hawthorn Woods
2005
Kildeer
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
2010
Lake Zurich
10
Table 4-A provides household information on the total number of housholds, average household
size, household income, and median age. Household income and median age are lower in Lake Zurich
then in the other municipalities but higher than Lake County.
TABLE 4-A
2012 Household Demographics
Community Unit School District #95
Municipality
Household
Ave Size Household
Household
Income Median Age
Deer Park
1,355
2.9
$144,881
Hawthorn Woods
3,624
3.0
$157,792
Kildeer
1,664
3.1
$159,609
Lake Zurich
6,525
3.1
$109,299
Lake County
241,712
2.9
$79,085
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning
48
43
45
37
36.7
http://www.cmap.illinois.gov/data/metropulse/community-snapshots
Population, household, and employment projections for 2040 for Community Unit School District
#95 area municipalities are provided in Table 4-B. These projections suggest that area population,
number of households, and employment will increase in the coming years.
TABLE 4-B
Demographic Projections
Community Unit School District #95
Population
Households
Municipality
2010
2040
2010
2040
Deer Park
3,200
5,581
1,355
1,758
Hawthorn Woods
7,663
12,602
3,624
3,989
Kildeer
3,968
7,642
1,664
2,421
Lake Zurich
19,631
22,628
6,525
7,539
Lake County
703,462
953,673
241,712
326,763
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
Employment
2010
2040
2,020
4,116
2,041
3,099
1,994
1,928
9,662
15,931
319,409
470,939
11
Table 5 shows population projections by age for Lake County from 2010 to 2035. Because these
projections are for the entirety of Lake County, they may or may resemble the future age structure of
the population within the school district area, but they provide additional information about the
county as a whole.
TABLE 5
Lake County Population Projections by Age: 2010-2035
Community Unit School District 95
Lake County
Age Group
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Totals
2010
51,142
56,682
58,482
54,848
46,951
43,541
45,914
53,796
61,010
58,351
47,740
37,775
26,031
17,826
14,181
12,466
8,760
8,264
2015
51,548
54,873
59,385
61,522
53,560
53,435
50,190
51,240
56,639
62,183
56,699
45,137
34,613
23,220
15,938
12,201
9,971
10,564
2020
52,555
53,840
56,530
60,148
54,582
58,074
57,520
53,579
52,954
57,208
59,227
52,407
39,827
30,015
20,526
13,732
9,650
12,477
2025
54,506
54,515
55,308
56,773
51,541
58,686
61,558
60,440
55,074
53,443
54,009
54,483
46,293
34,630
26,751
17,842
10,914
13,484
2030
56,873
57,532
56,651
57,090
52,305
55,954
63,891
65,770
62,658
55,901
51,294
50,640
49,997
41,918
31,371
23,431
14,565
15,404
2035
53,944
58,209
58,451
56,300
48,042
53,453
58,671
65,865
66,439
62,398
52,374
46,618
44,717
44,279
37,732
27,463
19,052
19,017
703,760
762,918
794,851
820,250
863,245
873,024
Source: State of Illinois, Department of Com merce and Economic Opportunity
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
12
Figure 4-B shows population for 2010 by age for Lake County from the U.S. Census Bureau and
population projections for 2020 produced by Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic
Opportunity. Population projections indicate growth of the under 5 population, but projects show a
slight decline in ages 5-9 and an even greater decline in ages 10-14 during this time period.
Age Structure
Figure 4-B
85plus
80 to 84
Lake County
Males
Females
75 to 79
70 to 74
65 to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50 to 54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35 to 39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
Under 5
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Number of People
2010 Census
2020 Projections
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
13
Residential Development
Examining trends in recent housing development can help to explain the affects of migration on
school enrollment. If the number of housing starts in the district area is expected to be reasonably
consistent for the next several years, then we assume that in-migration of school-age children will also
remain relatively consistent. If the number of housing starts is expected to increase significantly above
and beyond recent levels, in-migration may play an increasing role in school district enrollment.
However, it is important to recognize that the number of housing starts in any given year is dependent
upon a large number of confounding variables (decisions of local, county, and state policy makers,
residential developers, interest rates, demand for housing, etc.), making future growth patterns
difficult to predict.
Table 6 shows the number of housing starts in the district’s municipalities over the past ten years.
Area housing starts have fluctuated from a high of 425 units in 2004 (including 298 single family
homes), to a low of 15 new housing starts in 2010. A slight rebound occurred in home construction in
2011 and 2012.
TABLE 6
School District Area Housing Starts
Community Unit School District #95
District Area
TOTAL
Single Family
Multi Family
Deer Park
TOTAL
Single Family
Multi Family
Hawthorn Woods
TOTAL
Single Family
Multi Family
Kildeer
TOTAL
Single Family
Multi Family
Lake Zurich
TOTAL
Single Family
Multi Family
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
133
123
10
425
298
127
266
247
19
185
181
4
124
124
0
32
32
0
38
38
0
15
15
0
118
23
95
37
37
0
4
4
0
18
10
8
1
1
0
10
10
0
39
39
0
5
5
0
1
1
0
5
5
0
3
3
0
2
2
0
49
49
0
131
108
23
177
167
10
67
63
4
52
52
0
21
21
0
18
18
0
4
4
0
9
9
0
13
13
0
23
23
0
17
17
0
18
18
0
20
20
0
5
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
0
4
4
0
57
47
10
259
163
96
70
61
9
88
88
0
28
28
0
6
6
0
19
19
0
6
6
0
102
7
95
18
18
0
Source: U.S. Depatment of Housing and Urban Development
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
14
Housing development in the Community Unit School District #95 has been a mix of both single
family and multi-family units. Except in 2011, single family home construction has exceeded multifamily unit construction. Multi-family homes, on average, tend to have fewer school-aged children in
them compared to single-family units. The multi-family units constructed in 2011 were the Zurich
Meadows senior apartments and no additional students came to the district from these units.
It is also important to consider that turnover in ownership of existing housing stock also contributes
to changes in enrollment. A district can maintain or even increase enrollment depending upon the
cycle of resident homeowners, regardless of housing starts. For instance, a younger community will
have a higher child-per-household ratio, whereas an older community will have a lower child-perhousehold ration. However, within a few years a turnover in ownership in an older community may
result in an increase in the child-per-household number. As younger families move into the area, the
school district will tend to see new students enrolling into the district’s schools. Absent new housing
development or housing turnover, families age in place and the number of school-aged children
eventually declines. Turnover in ownership does not happen overnight, however, and slow turnover
may happen for several years at varying rates.
Figure 5-A and 5-B show housing starts in the district area by municipality and by type of housing
unit: single family home and multi-family housing (including duplexes).
Community Unit School District #95
Figure 5-A
Area Housing Starts by Municipality
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2003
2004
2005
Deer Park
2006
2007
Hawthorn Woods
2008
2009
Kildeer
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
2010
2011
2012
Lake Zurich
15
Community Unit School District #95
Figure 5-B
Area Housing Starts by Type
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
Single Family
2007
2008
Multi Family
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
2009
2010
2011
2012
Total
16
Method
In order to generate school enrollment projections, we rely on a commonly used demographic
technique called the “cohort survival method.” This method advances current students through the
school system over time and applies rates of transfer (or “survival”) as the students who are now in
school age from year to year and grade to grade. It is through these rates of transfer that we make
assumptions about how migration into and out of the district and transfers to and from different
schools or home schooling will impact future enrollment. In order to project incoming kindergarten
students, we gather data on births from the Illinois Center for Health Statistics and assume that a
certain percentage of the children born to mothers residing in the school district area will enroll as
kindergarteners five to six years later.
Grade Progression Ratios
Grade progression ratios are used to measure district enrollment changes, year to year and grade
to grade that have occurred within the school district in the recent past. By examining these, we can
better understand recent changes in enrollment, and we use these ratios as the rates of transfer
mentioned above to inform projections of future students.
Table 7 shows the grade progression ratios for the Community Unit School District #95. The ratios
measure the effects of in- and out-migration and the transfer of students between private and public
schools. The ratios are calculated for each pairs of years and then averages of these based on
different time frames are calculated for each grade.
TABLE 7
Grade Progression Ratios
Community Unit School District #95
YEAR
CHANGES
B:K
K:1
1:2
2:3
3:4
4:5
5:6
6:7
7:8
8:9
9:10
10:11
11:12
04-05/05-06
05-06/06-07
06-07/07-08
07-08/08-09
08-09/09-10
09-10/10-11
10-11/11-12
11-12/12-13
12-13/13-14
0.861
0.839
0.873
0.862
0.913
0.859
0.738
0.796
0.836
1.173
1.147
1.140
1.134
1.185
1.083
1.143
1.212
1.156
1.027
1.004
1.011
1.039
0.992
0.988
1.034
1.073
1.056
1.023
1.024
1.045
1.022
0.991
1.028
1.037
1.036
1.029
1.023
1.007
1.021
1.016
1.009
1.000
1.032
1.040
1.020
1.026
1.025
1.048
1.002
0.976
1.011
1.031
1.017
1.005
1.026
1.010
1.024
0.998
1.014
1.012
0.994
1.032
0.986
1.030
1.006
1.008
1.012
1.000
1.002
1.018
1.047
1.022
1.000
1.025
0.988
0.994
1.025
1.004
1.018
0.992
1.014
1.021
1.020
1.021
1.036
1.063
1.004
1.056
1.052
1.055
1.002
0.958
0.989
1.009
1.019
1.015
0.998
0.990
1.031
0.985
1.000
1.006
1.007
0.991
0.996
1.013
1.011
1.017
0.996
0.985
0.992
1.014
0.956
1.017
0.981
1.007
0.976
Baseline
0.846
1.154
1.029
1.031
1.018
1.017
1.011
1.012
1.009
1.037
1.003
1.004
0.993
5 Year Trend
0.828
1.156
1.029
1.024
1.020
1.008
1.008
1.018
1.011
1.046
1.011
1.006
0.987
3 Year Trend
0.790
1.170
1.054
1.034
1.031
1.017
1.004
1.029
1.008
1.054
1.006
1.014
0.988
*Shaded progression ratios are excluded from the Baseline Average
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
17
The grade progression ratios can be interpreted in the following manner. The Baseline ratio for K:1
is 1.154. This means that in the Community Unit School District #95 the first grade is on average 15.4%
larger each year than the kindergarten class was the previous year (the result of transfers from other
schools and in-migration into the district). The B:K (birth to kindergarten) Baseline ratio of 0.846
indicates that on average, approximately 84.6% of the births from five years previous enroll in
kindergarten in Community Unit School District #95. Outliers (ratios outside of one standard deviation
of the mean) are not included in the calculation of the Baseline average ratios.
In order to examine future enrollment under different growth assumptions, we generate three sets
of grade progression ratios that correspond to the different projection models shown later in this
report. In addition to the Baseline ratios (averages 10 years of enrollment), we examine rates of
transfer in the last 5 years and the last 3 years effectively weighing enrollment change patterns from
different time periods. Any significant deviations from the rates of in- and out-migration in the district
area will have a corresponding effect on enrollment. These additional models allow us to examine
alternative outcomes compared to the overall trends of the Baseline model. Figure 6 shows the
differences between these three sets of grade progression ratios.
Community Unit School District #95
Figure 6
Grade Progression Ratios, by Model
1.200
1.150
Grade Progression Ratio
1.100
1.050
1.000
0.950
0.900
0.850
0.800
0.750
B:K
K:1
1:2
2:3
Baseline Trend
3:4
4:5
5:6
6:7
5 Year Trend
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
7:8
8:9
9:10
10:11
11:12
3 Year Trend
18
School Enrollment Projections, 2014-2023
When considering all of the projections provided in this report for decision-making, it is important
to recognize that population projections of all types, including school enrollment projections, are more
accurate in the immediate future than they are further into the future. This is especially true for
grades K-5, because the students who will enter kindergarten after 2016 have not yet been born.
Overall, our projections are more reliable over the next five years (up to the 2018/19 school year) than
they are in the latter half of the next decade.
Baseline Projection
The Baseline model (Table 8) projects enrollment using the assumption that average trends year to
year, grade to grade, will continue into the future. This model assumes that long term (past ten years)
trends in enrollment, migration, and births will be representative of future trends in the district.
This model projects decreasing K-12 enrollment over time due to decreases in projected births. In
total, the Baseline model projects that K-12 enrollment will decrease by 11% in five year from 5,741 in
2013/14 to 5,120 in 2018/19.
TABLE 8
Baseline Projection Model
Community Unit School District #95
SCHOOL YEAR
19-20
18-19
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
255
303
322
339
349
355
406
408
419
470
453
473
446
247
294
312
331
346
355
359
411
411
434
472
455
470
239
285
303
322
337
351
359
364
414
427
436
473
452
231
276
293
312
328
343
355
363
367
430
428
437
470
223
267
284
302
318
333
347
360
366
381
431
430
434
5,120
4,999
4,898
4,762
4,633
4,475
5,120
1,998
1,271
1,851
4,999
1,924
1,232
1,843
4,898
1,885
1,181
1,831
4,762
1,837
1,137
1,787
4,633
1,783
1,085
1,765
4,475
1,727
1,073
1,675
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
281
366
373
392
432
422
444
426
461
513
521
500
488
280
324
376
385
399
439
427
449
430
478
515
522
496
278
323
333
388
392
405
444
432
453
446
480
517
519
271
320
332
343
395
398
410
449
436
470
447
482
513
263
313
329
343
350
401
403
415
453
452
472
449
478
TOTAL
5,618
5,521
5,409
5,267
K-12
K-5
6-8
9-12
5,618
2,265
1,331
2,021
5,521
2,203
1,306
2,012
5,409
2,119
1,329
1,961
5,267
2,060
1,295
1,912
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
19
5 Year Trend Projection
The 5 Year Trend model (Table 9) uses the grade progression ratios from the last five years and
recent trends in the number of births in the school district area to project what future enrollment
would look like if more recent patterns were representative of future trends.
With recent migration rates and birth trends weighted more heavily, K-8 enrollment in the
Community Unit School District #95 is projected to decrease over time. The model projects K-12
enrollment will decrease from 5,741 in 2013/14 to 5,095 in 2018/19, or a decrease of 646 students
(or -11%).
TABLE 9
5 Year Trend Projection Model
Community Unit School District #95
SCHOOL YEAR
18-19
19-20
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
275
366
373
389
433
418
442
429
462
518
524
501
485
274
317
377
382
397
436
421
450
433
483
523
527
495
272
317
327
386
390
400
439
429
455
453
488
526
521
265
315
326
334
394
393
403
447
434
476
458
491
520
256
306
323
334
341
397
396
410
452
454
481
460
485
246
295
315
331
340
344
400
403
415
473
458
484
455
237
285
304
323
338
343
346
407
408
434
478
461
478
228
274
293
311
329
341
346
353
411
426
438
480
455
218
263
282
300
317
332
343
352
356
430
431
441
474
209
252
271
288
306
320
334
349
356
373
435
433
435
TOTAL
5,615
5,517
5,403
5,255
5,095
4,959
4,840
4,685
4,540
4,361
K-12
K-5
6-8
9-12
5,615
2,254
1,333
2,028
5,517
2,184
1,305
2,028
5,403
2,091
1,323
1,988
5,255
2,026
1,284
1,945
5,095
1,957
1,258
1,880
4,959
1,872
1,218
1,870
4,840
1,829
1,161
1,850
4,685
1,775
1,110
1,800
4,540
1,712
1,051
1,776
4,361
1,646
1,039
1,676
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
20
3 Year Trend Projection
The 3 Year Trend model (Table 10) uses the grade progression ratios from the last three years to
project what future enrollments would look like if even more recent patterns were representative of
future trends. For the 3 Year Trend model, K-12 enrollment is projected to decrease from 5,741
students in 2013/14 to 5,175 students in 2018/19. This is a decrease of 566 students (-9.8%) over the
next five years.
TABLE 10
3 Year Trend Projection Model
Community Unit School District #95
SCHOOL YEAR
18-19
19-20
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
262
371
383
393
437
422
441
433
461
522
522
505
485
261
306
391
396
405
445
424
454
437
486
525
529
499
259
306
323
404
408
412
446
436
457
461
489
532
523
253
304
322
334
417
415
414
459
440
482
464
495
526
244
296
320
333
344
424
417
426
463
464
485
470
490
TOTAL
5,637
5,558
5,457
5,325
K-12
K-5
6-8
9-12
5,637
2,268
1,335
2,034
5,558
2,204
1,314
2,039
5,457
2,113
1,340
2,005
5,325
2,045
1,313
1,967
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
235
285
312
331
344
350
426
429
429
488
467
492
464
226
275
301
322
341
350
352
438
432
453
491
473
486
217
264
290
311
332
347
351
362
442
456
455
498
467
208
254
279
300
320
338
348
361
365
466
459
462
492
199
244
268
288
309
326
339
359
364
385
469
465
456
5,175
5,051
4,940
4,793
4,652
4,470
5,175
1,961
1,305
1,908
5,051
1,857
1,284
1,911
4,940
1,814
1,222
1,903
4,793
1,761
1,155
1,877
4,652
1,699
1,075
1,878
4,470
1,634
1,062
1,774
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
21
Kindergarten Trend Projection
For this method we perform a trend analysis to project the number of future kindergarten
students, rather than relying upon the traditional birth to kindergarten (B:K) progression ratio. Then,
the 5 Year Trend progression ratios are used for projecting the other grades (1-12) in the district. In
other words, this model assumes that the number of new kindergarteners each year over the next
decade will continue to follow a trend similar to the trend in kindergarten enrollment change over the
last ten years, regardless of the number of observed births in the school district area.
A good way to think about the projections provided by this model is that if the number of new
kindergarteners continues to decrease at the same rate as they have over the last several years and if
patterns of transfers in and out of the district continue as they have, then the Kindergarten Trend
model should provide a good prediction of future enrollment. It is important to take into account the
economic climate that leads parents to choose public kindergarten enrollment over private school
kindergarten enrollment, as this may affect the accuracy of this model.
According to this hybrid projection method (Table 11), K-12 enrollment will decline over the next
five years. The Kindergarten Trend model projects enrollment will decrease from 5,741 students in
2013/14 to 5,206 students in 2018/19, or decline by 9.3%.
TABLE 11
Kindergarten Trend Projection Model
Community Unit School District #95
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
305
366
373
389
433
418
442
429
462
518
524
501
485
296
352
377
382
397
436
421
450
433
483
523
527
495
287
342
363
386
390
400
439
429
455
453
488
526
521
278
332
352
371
394
393
403
447
434
476
458
491
520
269
321
341
360
379
397
396
410
452
454
481
460
485
260
311
330
349
368
382
400
403
415
473
458
484
455
251
300
320
338
356
370
385
407
408
434
478
461
478
242
290
309
327
345
359
373
392
411
426
438
480
455
233
280
298
317
334
348
362
380
396
430
431
441
474
224
269
288
306
323
337
351
368
384
414
435
433
435
TOTAL
5,645
5,574
5,479
5,348
5,206
5,087
4,986
4,849
4,723
4,566
K-12
K-5
6-8
9-12
5,645
2,285
1,333
2,028
5,574
2,241
1,305
2,028
5,479
2,168
1,323
1,988
5,348
2,120
1,284
1,945
5,206
2,067
1,258
1,880
5,087
2,000
1,218
1,870
4,986
1,937
1,199
1,850
4,849
1,873
1,176
1,800
4,723
1,810
1,138
1,776
4,566
1,746
1,103
1,717
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
22
Comparison of Projection Models
Figures 7-10 and Tables 12-15 compare the four enrollment projection models broken down by
total K-12 district enrollment and by grade groupings (K-5, 6-8, and 9-12).
Community Unit School District #95
Figure 7
K-12 Enrollment History and Projections
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
Baseline
5 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
3 Year Trend
Actual
TABLE 12
Summary of K-12 Enrollment Projections
Community Unit School District #95
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
14-15
5,618
5,615
5,637
5,645
15-16
5,521
5,517
5,558
5,574
16-17
5,409
5,403
5,457
5,479
17-18
5,267
5,255
5,325
5,348
18-19
5,120
5,095
5,175
5,206
19-20
4,999
4,959
5,051
5,087
20-21
4,898
4,840
4,940
4,986
21-22
4,762
4,685
4,793
4,849
22-23
4,633
4,540
4,652
4,723
23-24
4,475
4,361
4,470
4,566
The 2013/14 enrollment for grades K-8 is 5,741. All models project decreasing enrollment over the
next decade. The Kindergarten Trend model predicts less of a decline than the other models and the 5
Year Trend model projects the greatest decline. District-wide enrollment projections five years from
now (2018/19) predict a range of enrollment from 5,095 to 5,206 students.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
23
Community Unit School District #95
Figure 8
K-5 Enrollment History and Projections
2,800
2,600
2,400
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
Actual
TABLE 13
Summary of K-5 Enrollment Projections
Community Unit School District #95
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
14-15
2,265
2,254
2,268
2,285
15-16
2,203
2,184
2,204
2,241
16-17
2,119
2,091
2,113
2,168
17-18
2,060
2,026
2,045
2,120
18-19
1,998
1,957
1,961
2,067
19-20
1,924
1,872
1,857
2,000
20-21
1,885
1,829
1,814
1,937
21-22
1,837
1,775
1,761
1,873
22-23
1,783
1,712
1,699
1,810
23-24
1,727
1,646
1,634
1,746
The 2013/14 enrollment for grades K-5 is 2,338. For grades K-5, all projection models project a
decline in student enrollment over the next decade. This is due to decreasing birth trends, affecting
the models that incorporate births to project future kindergartners. The Kindergarten Trend model
projects less of an enrollment decline. K-5 enrollment projections five years from now (2018/19)
predict a range of enrollment from 1,957 to 2,067 students.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
24
Community Unit School District #95
Figure 9
6-8 Enrollment History and Projections
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
Actual
TABLE 14
Summary of 6-8 Enrollment Projections
Community Unit School District #95
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
14-15
1,331
1,333
1,335
1,333
15-16
1,306
1,305
1,314
1,305
16-17
1,329
1,323
1,340
1,323
17-18
1,295
1,284
1,313
1,284
18-19
1,271
1,258
1,305
1,258
19-20
1,232
1,218
1,284
1,218
20-21
1,181
1,161
1,222
1,199
21-22
1,137
1,110
1,155
1,176
22-23
1,085
1,051
1,075
1,138
23-24
1,073
1,039
1,062
1,103
The 2013/14 enrollment for grades 6-8 is 1,373. At the middle school grades, all models project
decreases in enrollment in the foreseeable future as smaller cohorts of elementary students enter
middle school. 6-8 enrollment projections five years from now (2018/19) predict a range of enrollment
from 1,258 to 1,305 students.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
25
Community Unit School District #95
Figure 10
9-12 Enrollment History and Projections
2,400
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
Baseline
5 Year Trend
2 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
Actual
TABLE 15
Summary of 9-12 Enrollment Projections
Community Unit School District #95
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
14-15
2,021
2,028
2,034
2,028
15-16
2,012
2,028
2,039
2,028
16-17
1,961
1,988
2,005
1,988
17-18
1,912
1,945
1,967
1,945
18-19
1,851
1,880
1,908
1,880
19-20
1,843
1,870
1,911
1,870
20-21
1,831
1,850
1,903
1,850
21-22
1,787
1,800
1,877
1,800
22-23
1,765
1,776
1,878
1,776
23-24
1,675
1,676
1,774
1,717
The 2013/14 enrollment for grades 9-12 is 2,030. At the high school grades, all models project
steady enrollment over the next two years followed by declining enrollment. 9-12 enrollment
projections five years from now (2018/19) predict a range of enrollment from 1,851 to 1,908 students.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
26
District Conclusion
These district-level enrollment projections are based on models that incorporate recent past and
current demographic information as well as the district’s own enrollment data and assumptions about
future housing development in the school district area. Because most of the students in the district’s
schools over the next few years have already been born or are already in school, and because their
grade progression from one year to another is highly predictable, the total district-level projections
should be viewed as having high accuracy over the next few years. After a few years, and increasingly
for the lower elementary grades, actual enrollment figures will likely deviate from these projections by
ever increasing amounts. The reason for this is that birth trends, in-migration of pre-school age
children, and transfers into the district are more difficult to predict and therefore this makes
meaningful incorporation into enrollment projections a challenge. As with nearly all types of forecasts,
accuracy in these enrollment projections decreases over time.
In sum, the information provided in this school enrollment projection report points to decreasing
enrollment in the foreseeable future. The models using recent past and longer term enrollment trends
in conjunction with birth data (Baseline, 5 Year Trend, and 3 Year Trend models) point to decreasing
enrollment in the long term due to number of births decreasing over time. The Kindergarten Trend
model also shows a decrease in enrollment over the next decade due to a decreasing trend in
kindergarten enrollment although the decrease is not as great as the other three models. In sum, K-5
and 6-8 enrollment will likely decrease over time, while 9-12 enrollment will remain steady for two
years then begin to decline.
Because the projections found in this report incorporate the consequences of migration to and
from the village, any significant and sustained interruption of current or recent past migration patterns
will erode these models’ accuracy from the initiation point of the new pattern. Similarly, if previous
patterns of private school enrollment of students who reside within Community Unit School District
#95 change significantly, this would also affect the accuracy of the models. The various projection
models provide a realistic range of migration and transfer effects on the school district. Enrollment
should be closely monitored for the next few years and compared with these projections to determine
the trajectory of future decline or growth. This type of monitoring program might help the district to
determine which of the models seems to be the most realistic to use for planning purposes.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
27
Part II: Individual School Projections
This report provides individual school projections for Isaac Fox, May Whitney, Sarah Adams, Seth
Paine, and Spencer Loomis elementary schools and Middle School North and Middle School South. Of
these schools, Seth Paine, Spencer Loomis, and approximately 48% of May Whitney are “feeder”
schools for Middle School North. While Isaac Fox, Sarah Adams, and approximately 52% of May
Whitney are “feeder” schools for Middle School South.
When considering these projections, it is important to remember that projections made for smaller
units of geography, such as elementary attendance areas, are less reliable than those projections made
for the district as a whole. These projections do serve as a reasonable guide for projecting the future
trend and magnitude of enrollment in the individual schools of Community Unit School District #95.
Additionally, projection totals within the individual schools will not match up to the district totals
provided in the previous section of this report. This occurs because the elementary school projections
are created entirely separate from the district-level projections and are not meant to “fit” the totals
provided in the district projections section.
Elementary Schools
Figure 1 shows enrollment history for the elementary schools in Community Unit School District #95
from 2005/06 to 2013/14.
Elementary Schools
Figure 1
Student Enrollment
800
750
700
650
Students
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
05-06
06-07
Issac Fox
07-08
08-09
May Whitney
09-10
Sarah Adams
10-11
11-12
Seth Paine
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
12-13
13-14
Spencer Loomis
28
Isaac Fox Elementary School
Enrollment History
Tables 1 and 2 show enrollment history and enrollment change for Isaac Fox Elementary School.
Enrollment has decreased by 66 students, or 1.2% annually.
TABLE 1
Student Enrollment
Isaac Fox Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
10-11
09-10
05-06
06-07
07-08
08-09
K
1
2
3
4
5
77
113
96
107
101
114
110
92
112
103
106
102
78
114
95
111
104
111
77
76
119
95
117
107
84
101
80
112
88
126
TOTAL
608
625
613
591
591
11-12
12-13
13-14
84
92
98
78
111
88
62
94
97
104
82
114
70
72
101
99
109
84
70
82
76
103
102
109
551
553
535
542
TABLE 2
Student Enrollment Changes
Isaac Fox Elementary
ABSOLUTE CHANGE
PERCENT CHANGE
AVERAGE ANNUAL
PERCENT CHANGE
'05 to '13 '05 to '08 '09 to '13
GRADE
'05 to '13
'05 to '08
'09 to '13
'05 to '13
'05 to '08
'09 to '13
K
1
2
3
4
5
-7
-31
-20
-4
1
-5
0
-37
23
-12
16
-7
-14
-19
-4
-9
14
-17
-9.1
-27.4
-20.8
-3.7
1.0
-4.4
0.0
-32.7
24.0
-11.2
15.8
-6.1
-16.7
-18.8
-5.0
-8.0
15.9
-13.5
-1.0
-3.0
-2.3
-0.4
0.1
-0.5
0.0
-10.9
8.0
-3.7
5.3
-2.0
-4.2
-4.7
-1.3
-2.0
4.0
-3.4
TOTAL
-66
-17
-49
-10.9
-2.8
-8.3
-1.2
-0.9
-2.1
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
29
Grade Progression Ratios
To review, grade progression ratios depict enrollment changes, year to year and grade to grade,
measuring the effects of in- and out-migration and the transfer of students between private and public
schools. Table 3 shows the grade progression ratios for Isaac Fox Elementary School.
TABLE 3
Grade Progression Ratios
Isaac Fox Elementary
YEAR
CHANGES
B:K
K:1
1:2
2:3
3:4
4:5
05-06/06-07
06-07/07-08
07-08/08-09
08-09/09-10
09-10/10-11
10-11/11-12
11-12/12-13
12-13/13-14
0.273
0.194
0.200
0.215
0.209
0.157
0.185
0.184
1.195
1.036
0.974
1.312
1.095
1.119
1.161
1.171
0.991
1.033
1.044
1.053
0.970
1.054
1.074
1.056
1.073
0.991
1.000
0.941
0.975
1.061
1.021
1.020
0.991
1.010
1.054
0.926
0.991
1.051
1.048
1.030
1.010
1.047
1.029
1.077
1.000
1.027
1.024
1.000
Baseline
0.198
1.130
1.052
1.001
1.025
1.020
5 Year Trend
0.190
1.172
1.041
1.004
1.009
1.026
3 Year Trend
0.175
1.151
1.061
1.034
1.043
1.017
*Shaded progression ratios are excluded from the Baseline
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
30
Kindergarten Trend
Figure 2 shows kindergarten enrollment history in black, and trend lines depicting kindergarten
enrollment in red and blue. The “Long Term Trend” line averages kindergarten enrollment changes
over the last nine years. The “Recent Trend” line emphasizes kindergarten enrollment changes over
the last five years. The long term trend will be used to project kindergartners for the Kindergarten
Trend projections.
Figure 2
Isaac Fox Elementary
Kindergarten Enrollment Trends
140
Projected
120
Students
100
80
60
40
20
0
Long Term Trend
Recent Trend
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
Actual
31
Enrollment Projections
The Baseline model uses the grade progression ratios from the last nine years and long term trends
in births to project what future enrollment would look like. The Five Year Trend and the Three Year
Trend models use the grade progression ratios from the last five years and the last three years
respectively and the recent birth trends to project what future enrollment would look like if more
recent patterns were representative of future trends. The Kindergarten Trend model uses
kindergarten trends to project kindergartners and the 5 year trend grade progression ratios to project
grades 1-5.
TABLE 4
Baseline Projection Model
Isaac Fox Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
18-19
19-20
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
K
1
2
3
4
5
76
79
86
76
106
104
69
86
83
86
78
108
66
78
90
83
89
80
65
74
82
90
85
90
65
74
78
82
93
87
TOTAL
527
510
485
488
479
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
63
73
78
78
84
95
61
71
77
78
80
86
60
69
75
77
80
82
58
67
73
75
79
81
56
65
71
73
77
81
471
454
443
434
423
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
TABLE 5
5 Year Trend Projection Model
Isaac Fox Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
18-19
19-20
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
K
1
2
3
4
5
73
82
85
76
104
105
66
85
85
86
77
107
63
78
89
86
87
79
63
74
81
89
87
89
62
74
77
81
90
89
61
73
77
77
82
92
59
71
76
77
78
84
56
69
74
76
78
80
54
66
71
74
77
80
52
64
69
72
75
79
TOTAL
525
507
481
482
473
462
445
433
423
410
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
32
TABLE 6
3 Year Trend Projection Model
Isaac Fox Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
18-19
19-20
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
K
1
2
3
4
5
67
81
87
79
107
104
61
77
85
90
82
109
58
71
82
88
94
83
58
67
75
85
92
95
58
67
71
77
89
94
TOTAL
525
505
476
472
455
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
56
66
71
73
81
90
54
64
70
73
76
82
52
62
68
73
76
78
50
60
66
71
76
78
48
58
64
68
74
77
437
420
409
400
388
TABLE 7
Kindergarten Trend Projection Model
Isaac Fox Elementary
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
K
1
2
3
4
5
68
82
85
76
104
105
65
79
85
86
77
107
62
76
82
86
87
79
59
72
79
83
87
89
56
69
75
79
84
89
53
66
72
76
80
86
50
62
68
72
76
82
47
59
65
69
73
78
45
56
61
65
69
75
42
52
58
62
66
71
TOTAL
520
499
471
468
452
432
412
391
371
350
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
33
Isaac Fox Elementary
Figure 3
Elementary School Student Enrollment and Projections
700
600
Students
500
400
300
200
100
0
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
Actual
TABLE 8
Summary of Elementary School Enrollment Projections
Isaac Fox Elementary
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
527
525
525
520
510
507
505
499
485
481
476
471
488
482
472
468
479
473
455
452
471
462
437
432
454
445
420
412
443
433
409
391
434
423
400
371
423
410
388
350
The 2013/14 enrollment is 542. All projection models project a decline in student enrollment over
the next decade at varying rates. Enrollment projections five years from now (2018/19) predict a range
of enrollment from 452 to 479 students.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
34
May Whitney Elementary School
Enrollment History
Tables 9 and 10 show enrollment history and enrollment change for May Whitney Elementary
School. Enrollment has decreased over the last ten years by 90 students (-1.7% annually).
TABLE 9
Student Enrollment
May Whitney Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
10-11
09-10
05-06
06-07
07-08
08-09
K
1
2
3
4
5
95
100
88
99
115
99
70
108
103
91
98
117
73
82
117
116
96
107
82
76
90
113
113
90
64
95
74
87
95
96
TOTAL
596
587
591
564
511
11-12
12-13
13-14
73
68
94
79
86
94
74
83
83
94
79
86
63
89
86
82
98
82
65
83
91
89
82
96
494
499
500
506
TABLE 10
Student Enrollment Changes
May Whitney Elementary
ABSOLUTE CHANGE
PERCENT CHANGE
AVERAGE ANNUAL
PERCENT CHANGE
'05 to '13 '05 to '08 '09 to '13
GRADE
'05 to '13
'05 to '08
'09 to '13
'05 to '13
'05 to '08
'09 to '13
K
1
2
3
4
5
-30
-17
3
-10
-33
-3
-13
-24
2
14
-2
-9
1
-12
17
2
-13
0
-31.6
-17.0
3.4
-10.1
-28.7
-3.0
-13.7
-24.0
2.3
14.1
-1.7
-9.1
1.6
-12.6
23.0
2.3
-13.7
0.0
-3.5
-1.9
0.4
-1.1
-3.2
-0.3
-4.6
-8.0
0.8
4.7
-0.6
-3.0
0.4
-3.2
5.7
0.6
-3.4
0.0
TOTAL
-90
-32
-5
-15.1
-5.4
-1.0
-1.7
-1.8
-0.2
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
35
Grade Progression Ratios
To review, grade progression ratios depict enrollment changes, year to year and grade to grade,
measuring the effects of in- and out-migration and the transfer of students between private and public
schools. Table 11 shows the grade progression ratios for May Whitney Elementary School.
TABLE 11
Grade Progression Ratios
May Whitney Elementary
YEAR
CHANGES
B:K
K:1
1:2
2:3
3:4
4:5
05-06/06-07
06-07/07-08
07-08/08-09
08-09/09-10
09-10/10-11
10-11/11-12
11-12/12-13
12-13/13-14
0.174
0.182
0.213
0.164
0.181
0.187
0.166
0.170
1.137
1.171
1.041
1.159
1.063
1.137
1.203
1.317
1.030
1.083
1.098
0.974
0.989
1.221
1.036
1.022
1.034
1.126
0.966
0.967
1.068
1.000
0.988
1.035
0.990
1.055
0.974
0.841
0.989
1.000
1.043
1.000
1.017
1.092
0.938
0.850
0.989
1.000
1.038
0.980
Baseline
0.175
1.161
1.043
1.008
0.999
0.994
5 Year Trend
0.174
1.176
1.048
1.011
0.974
0.971
3 Year Trend
0.175
1.219
1.093
1.008
1.014
1.006
*Shaded progression ratios are excluded from the Baseline
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
36
Kindergarten Trend
Figure 4 shows kindergarten enrollment history in black, and trend lines depicting kindergarten
enrollment in red and blue. The “Long Term Trend” line averages kindergarten enrollment changes
over the last nine years. The “Recent Trend” line emphasizes kindergarten enrollment changes over
the last five years. The recent trend will be used to project kindergartners for the Kindergarten Trend
projections.
Figure 4
May Whitney Elementary
Kindergarten Enrollment Trends
100
Projected
90
80
70
Students
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Long Term Trend
Recent Trend
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
Actual
37
Enrollment Projections
The Baseline model uses the grade progression ratios from the last nine years and long term trends
in births to project what future enrollment would look like. The Five Year Trend and the Three Year
Trend models use the grade progression ratios from the last five years and the last three years
respectively and the recent birth trends to project what future enrollment would look like if more
recent patterns were representative of future trends. The Kindergarten Trend model uses
kindergarten trends to project kindergartners and the 5 year trend grade progression ratios to project
grades 1-5.
TABLE 12
Baseline Projection Model
May Whitney Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
18-19
19-20
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
K
1
2
3
4
5
67
75
87
92
89
81
61
78
79
87
92
88
58
71
81
79
87
91
58
67
74
82
79
87
57
67
70
75
82
79
TOTAL
491
485
468
448
430
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
56
67
70
71
75
82
54
65
69
71
71
74
53
63
68
70
71
70
51
61
66
68
70
70
49
59
64
66
68
70
420
405
395
387
377
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
TABLE 13
5 Year Trend Projection Model
May Whitney Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
18-19
19-20
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
K
1
2
3
4
5
67
76
87
92
87
80
61
79
80
88
90
84
58
72
82
81
86
87
58
68
75
83
79
83
57
68
71
76
81
77
56
67
71
72
74
79
54
65
70
72
70
72
52
63
69
71
70
68
50
61
66
69
69
68
48
58
64
67
68
67
TOTAL
489
481
465
446
429
418
403
392
383
372
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
38
TABLE 14
3 Year Trend Projection Model
May Whitney Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
18-19
19-20
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
K
1
2
3
4
5
67
79
91
92
90
82
61
82
87
91
93
91
58
75
89
87
93
94
58
71
81
90
89
93
57
70
77
82
91
89
TOTAL
502
505
495
482
468
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
56
70
77
78
83
92
54
68
76
78
79
84
52
66
74
77
79
79
50
63
72
75
78
79
48
61
69
72
76
79
456
439
427
418
405
TABLE 15
Kindergarten Trend Projection Model
May Whitney Elementary
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
K
1
2
3
4
5
66
76
87
92
87
80
65
78
80
88
90
84
65
77
82
81
86
87
64
76
81
83
79
83
63
75
80
82
80
77
62
74
79
81
79
78
61
73
78
80
78
77
61
72
77
79
77
76
60
71
76
78
77
75
59
70
75
77
76
74
TOTAL
488
485
477
465
456
453
447
442
436
430
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
39
May Whitney Elementary
Figure 5
Elementary School Student Enrollment and Projections
700
600
Students
500
400
300
200
100
0
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
Actual
TABLE 16
Summary of Elementary School Enrollment Projections
May Whitney Elementary
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
491
489
502
488
485
481
505
485
468
465
495
477
448
446
482
465
430
429
468
456
420
418
456
453
405
403
439
447
395
392
427
442
387
383
418
436
377
372
405
430
The 2013/14 enrollment is 506. The Baseline, Five Year, and Kindergarten Trend models project
enrollment decline while the Three Year Trend model project steady enrollment for two years followed
by decline. Enrollment projections five years from now (2018/19) predict a range of enrollment from
429 to 468 students.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
40
Sarah Adams Elementary School
Enrollment History
Tables 17 and 18 show enrollment history and enrollment change for Sarah Adams Elementary
School. Enrollment has decreased by 50 students, or 1.2% annually.
TABLE 17
Student Enrollment
Sarah Adams Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
10-11
09-10
05-06
06-07
07-08
08-09
K
1
2
3
4
5
81
71
79
72
69
82
55
84
72
80
71
70
63
63
89
78
86
69
66
71
66
91
79
86
73
64
74
66
86
77
TOTAL
454
432
448
459
440
11-12
12-13
13-14
63
76
63
81
66
90
49
67
73
61
78
66
61
64
72
75
64
78
57
71
69
70
72
65
439
394
414
404
TABLE 18
Student Enrollment Changes
Sarah Adams Elementary
ABSOLUTE CHANGE
PERCENT CHANGE
AVERAGE ANNUAL
PERCENT CHANGE
'05 to '13 '05 to '08 '09 to '13
GRADE
'05 to '13
'05 to '08
'09 to '13
'05 to '13
'05 to '08
'09 to '13
K
1
2
3
4
5
-24
0
-10
-2
3
-17
-15
0
-13
19
10
4
-16
7
-5
4
-14
-12
-29.6
0.0
-12.7
-2.8
4.3
-20.7
-18.5
0.0
-16.5
26.4
14.5
4.9
-21.9
10.9
-6.8
6.1
-16.3
-15.6
-3.3
0.0
-1.4
-0.3
0.5
-2.3
-6.2
0.0
-5.5
8.8
4.8
1.6
-5.5
2.7
-1.7
1.5
-4.1
-3.9
TOTAL
-50
5
-36
-11.0
1.1
-8.2
-1.2
0.4
-2.0
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
41
Grade Progression Ratios
To review, grade progression ratios depict enrollment changes, year to year and grade to grade,
measuring the effects of in- and out-migration and the transfer of students between private and public
schools. Table 19 shows the grade progression ratios for Sarah Adams Elementary School.
TABLE 19
Grade Progression Ratios
Sarah Adams Elementary
YEAR
CHANGES
B:K
K:1
1:2
2:3
3:4
4:5
05-06/06-07
06-07/07-08
07-08/08-09
08-09/09-10
09-10/10-11
10-11/11-12
11-12/12-13
12-13/13-14
0.136
0.157
0.172
0.187
0.156
0.124
0.161
0.149
1.037
1.145
1.127
0.970
1.041
1.063
1.306
1.164
1.014
1.060
1.048
1.042
0.984
0.961
1.075
1.078
1.013
1.083
1.022
1.000
1.095
0.968
1.027
0.972
0.986
1.075
1.013
0.945
1.000
0.963
1.049
0.960
1.014
0.972
1.000
0.975
1.047
1.000
1.000
1.016
Baseline
0.155
1.108
1.053
1.016
0.984
1.006
5 Year Trend
0.155
1.109
1.028
1.012
0.983
1.007
3 Year Trend
0.145
1.178
1.038
0.989
0.991
1.005
*Shaded progression ratios are excluded from the Baseline
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
42
Kindergarten Enrollment
Figure 6 shows kindergarten enrollment history in black, and trend lines depicting kindergarten
enrollment in red and blue. The “Long Term Trend” line averages kindergarten enrollment changes
over the last nine years. The “Recent Trend” line emphasizes kindergarten enrollment changes over
the last five years. Both trends are decreasing. The long term trend will be used to project
kindergartners for the Kindergarten Trend projections.
Figure 6
Sarah Adams Elementary
Kindergarten Enrollment Trends
100
Projected
90
80
70
Students
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Long Term Trend
Recent Trend
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
Actual
43
Enrollment Projections
The Baseline model uses the grade progression ratios from the last nine years and long term trends
in births to project what future enrollment would look like. The Five Year Trend and the Three Year
“Trend” models use the grade progression ratios from the last five years and the last three years
respectively and the recent birth trends to project what future enrollment would look like if more
recent patterns were representative of future trends. The Kindergarten Trend model uses
kindergarten trends to project kindergartners and the 5 year trend grade progression ratios to project
grades 1-5.
TABLE 20
Baseline Projection Model
Sarah Adams Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
18-19
19-20
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
K
1
2
3
4
5
60
63
75
70
69
72
54
66
66
76
69
69
52
60
70
68
75
69
51
57
63
71
66
75
51
57
60
64
70
67
TOTAL
409
401
393
384
369
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
50
56
60
61
63
70
48
55
59
61
60
64
47
53
58
60
60
60
45
52
56
59
59
60
44
50
55
57
58
60
361
348
339
332
324
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
TABLE 21
5 Year Trend Projection Model
Sarah Adams Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
18-19
19-20
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
K
1
2
3
4
5
60
63
73
70
69
73
54
66
65
74
69
69
52
60
68
66
73
69
51
57
62
69
65
73
51
57
59
63
68
65
50
57
59
60
62
68
48
55
58
59
59
62
46
53
57
59
58
59
44
51
55
57
58
59
43
49
53
55
56
58
TOTAL
407
398
388
378
363
355
342
333
325
315
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
44
TABLE 22
3 Year Trend Projection Model
Sarah Adams Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
18-19
19-20
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
K
1
2
3
4
5
56
67
74
68
69
72
51
66
70
73
68
70
48
60
68
69
72
68
48
57
62
67
68
73
48
56
59
61
67
69
TOTAL
406
396
385
375
359
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
46
56
59
58
61
67
45
55
58
58
58
61
43
53
57
58
57
58
41
51
55
56
57
58
40
49
53
54
55
57
347
334
325
318
308
TABLE 23
Kindergarten Trend Projection Model
Sarah Adams Elementary
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
K
1
2
3
4
5
56
63
73
70
69
73
54
62
65
74
69
69
52
60
64
66
73
69
50
58
62
64
65
73
49
56
60
62
63
65
47
54
57
60
61
64
45
52
55
58
59
62
43
50
53
56
57
60
41
48
51
54
55
58
39
46
49
52
53
56
TOTAL
403
393
383
372
355
344
331
319
307
295
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
45
Sarah Adams Elementary
Figure 7
Elementary School Student Enrollment and Projections
700
600
Students
500
400
300
200
100
0
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
Actual
TABLE 24
Summary of Elementary School Enrollment Projections
Sarah Adams Elementary
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
409
407
406
403
401
398
396
393
393
388
385
383
384
378
375
372
369
363
359
355
361
355
347
344
348
342
334
331
339
333
325
319
332
325
318
307
324
315
308
295
The 2013/14 enrollment is 404. All projections models project steady decline in enrollment but not
as great as the other elementary schools. Enrollment projections five years from now (2018/19)
predict a range of enrollment from 355 to 369 students.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
46
Seth Paine Elementary School
Enrollment History
Tables 25 and 26 show enrollment history and enrollment change. Enrollment at Seth Paine
Elementary School has decreased 42 students, or 1.0% annually.
TABLE 25
Student Enrollment
Seth Paine Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
10-11
09-10
05-06
06-07
07-08
08-09
K
1
2
3
4
5
64
86
68
71
72
86
60
70
82
65
73
75
88
69
76
89
66
86
64
85
74
75
85
68
61
65
94
65
86
73
TOTAL
447
425
474
451
444
11-12
12-13
13-14
56
65
63
93
63
87
67
56
61
62
98
63
63
71
54
64
63
95
63
62
78
62
73
67
427
407
410
405
TABLE 26
Student Enrollment Changes
Seth Paine Elementary
ABSOLUTE CHANGE
PERCENT CHANGE
AVERAGE ANNUAL
PERCENT CHANGE
'05 to '13 '05 to '08 '09 to '13
GRADE
'05 to '13
'05 to '08
'09 to '13
'05 to '13
'05 to '08
'09 to '13
K
1
2
3
4
5
-1
-24
10
-9
1
-19
0
-1
6
4
13
-18
2
-3
-16
-3
-13
-6
-1.6
-27.9
14.7
-12.7
1.4
-22.1
0.0
-1.2
8.8
5.6
18.1
-20.9
3.3
-4.6
-17.0
-4.6
-15.1
-8.2
-0.2
-3.1
1.6
-1.4
0.2
-2.5
0.0
-0.4
2.9
1.9
6.0
-7.0
0.8
-1.2
-4.3
-1.2
-3.8
-2.1
TOTAL
-42
4
-39
-9.4
0.9
-8.8
-1.0
0.3
-2.2
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
47
Grade Progression Ratio
To review, grade progression ratios depict enrollment changes, year to year and grade to grade,
measuring the effects of in- and out-migration and the transfer of students between private and public
schools. Table 27 shows the grade progression ratios for Seth Paine Elementary School.
TABLE 27
Grade Progression Ratios
Seth Paine Elementary
YEAR
CHANGES
B:K
K:1
1:2
2:3
3:4
4:5
05-06/06-07
06-07/07-08
07-08/08-09
08-09/09-10
09-10/10-11
10-11/11-12
11-12/12-13
12-13/13-14
0.149
0.219
0.167
0.156
0.139
0.170
0.166
0.165
1.094
1.150
0.966
1.016
1.066
1.000
1.060
0.984
0.953
1.086
1.072
1.106
0.969
0.938
0.964
1.099
0.956
1.085
0.987
0.878
0.989
0.984
1.049
1.148
1.028
1.015
0.955
1.147
0.969
1.054
1.016
1.141
1.042
1.178
1.030
0.859
1.012
1.000
0.969
1.063
Baseline
0.159
1.036
1.024
1.008
1.017
1.019
5 Year Trend
0.159
1.025
1.015
1.010
1.065
0.981
3 Year Trend
0.167
1.015
1.000
1.060
1.070
1.011
*Shaded progression ratios are excluded from the Baseline
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
48
Kindergarten Trend
Figure 8 shows kindergarten enrollment history in black, and trend lines depicting kindergarten
enrollment in red and blue. The “Long Term Trend” line averages kindergarten enrollment changes
over the last nine years. The “Recent Trend” line emphasizes kindergarten enrollment changes over
the last five years. The long term trend will be used to project kindergartners for the Kindergarten
Trend projections.
Figure 8
Seth Paine Elementary
Kindergarten Enrollment Trends
100
Projected
90
80
70
Students
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Long Term Trend
Recent Trend
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
Actual
49
Enrollment Projections
The Baseline model uses the grade progression ratios from the last nine years and long term trends
in births to project what future enrollment would look like. The Five Year Trend and the Three Year
Trend models use the grade progression ratios from the last five years and the last three years
respectively and the recent birth trends to project what future enrollment would look like if more
recent patterns were representative of future trends. The Kindergarten Trend model uses
kindergarten trends to project kindergartners and the 5 year trend grade progression ratios to project
grades 1-5.
TABLE 28
Baseline Projection Model
Seth Paine Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
18-19
19-20
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
K
1
2
3
4
5
61
65
63
79
63
74
56
63
67
64
80
64
53
58
65
67
65
82
53
55
59
65
69
66
52
54
56
59
66
70
TOTAL
406
394
389
366
358
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
51
54
56
56
60
68
49
53
55
56
57
62
48
51
54
56
57
58
46
50
52
54
57
58
45
48
51
53
55
58
345
332
324
318
310
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
TABLE 29
5 Year Trend Projection Model
Seth Paine Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
18-19
19-20
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
K
1
2
3
4
5
61
65
63
79
66
72
56
63
66
64
84
65
53
57
64
66
68
82
53
54
58
64
71
66
52
54
55
59
69
69
51
54
55
55
62
67
49
52
54
55
59
61
47
50
53
55
59
58
46
49
51
54
59
58
44
47
49
52
57
57
TOTAL
405
396
390
366
358
344
331
323
315
306
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
50
TABLE 30
3 Year Trend Projection Model
Seth Paine Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
18-19
19-20
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
K
1
2
3
4
5
64
64
62
83
66
74
58
65
64
66
89
67
55
59
65
68
70
89
55
56
59
69
73
71
55
56
56
63
74
73
TOTAL
413
409
408
384
377
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
53
56
56
60
67
75
52
54
56
60
64
68
50
52
54
59
64
65
48
50
52
58
63
64
46
48
50
55
62
64
367
353
343
336
326
TABLE 31
Kindergarten Trend Projection Model
Seth Paine Elementary
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
K
1
2
3
4
5
62
65
63
79
66
72
61
64
66
64
84
65
61
63
65
66
68
82
60
62
64
65
71
66
59
61
63
64
70
69
58
61
62
64
69
68
58
60
62
63
68
67
57
59
61
62
67
67
56
58
60
61
66
66
55
58
59
61
65
65
TOTAL
406
403
404
388
387
382
377
372
368
363
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
51
Seth Paine Elementary
Figure 9
Elementary School Student Enrollment and Projections
700
600
Students
500
400
300
200
100
0
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
Actual
TABLE 32
Summary of Elementary School Enrollment Projections
Seth Paine Elementary
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
406
405
413
406
394
396
409
403
389
390
408
404
366
366
384
388
358
358
377
387
345
344
367
382
332
331
353
377
324
323
343
372
318
315
336
368
310
306
326
363
The 2013/14 enrollment is 405. All models project steady enrollment for the next three years
followed by declining enrollment. Enrollment projections five years from now (2018/19) predict a
range of enrollment from 358 to 387 students.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
52
Spencer Loomis Elementary School
Enrollment History
Tables 33 and 34 show enrollment history and enrollment change for Spencer Loomis Elementary
School. Enrollment has decreased by 91 students, or 1.8% annually.
TABLE 33
Student Enrollment
Spencer Loomis Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
10-11
09-10
05-06
06-07
07-08
08-09
K
1
2
3
4
5
79
86
83
84
119
121
64
94
97
88
91
127
70
77
106
107
94
99
67
68
85
107
107
95
69
85
74
90
109
109
TOTAL
572
561
553
529
536
11-12
12-13
13-14
60
79
87
76
94
110
45
84
79
99
83
104
57
64
99
87
103
88
62
65
66
100
86
102
506
494
498
481
TABLE 34
Student Enrollment Changes
Spencer Loomis Elementary
ABSOLUTE CHANGE
PERCENT CHANGE
AVERAGE ANNUAL
PERCENT CHANGE
'05 to '13 '05 to '08 '09 to '13
GRADE
'05 to '13
'05 to '08
'09 to '13
'05 to '13
'05 to '08
'09 to '13
K
1
2
3
4
5
-17
-21
-17
16
-33
-19
-12
-18
2
23
-12
-26
-7
-20
-8
10
-23
-7
-21.5
-24.4
-20.5
19.0
-27.7
-15.7
-15.2
-20.9
2.4
27.4
-10.1
-21.5
-10.1
-23.5
-10.8
11.1
-21.1
-6.4
-2.4
-2.7
-2.3
2.1
-3.1
-1.7
-5.1
-7.0
0.8
9.1
-3.4
-7.2
-2.5
-5.9
-2.7
2.8
-5.3
-1.6
TOTAL
-91
-43
-55
-15.9
-7.5
-10.3
-1.8
-2.5
-2.6
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
53
Grade Progression Ratios
To review, grade progression ratios depict enrollment changes, year to year and grade to grade,
measuring the effects of in- and out-migration and the transfer of students between private and public
schools. Table 35 shows the grade progression ratios for Spencer Loomis Elementary School.
TABLE 35
Grade Progression Ratios
Spencer Loomis Elementary
YEAR
CHANGES
B:K
K:1
1:2
2:3
3:4
4:5
05-06/06-07
06-07/07-08
07-08/08-09
08-09/09-10
09-10/10-11
10-11/11-12
11-12/12-13
12-13/13-14
0.159
0.174
0.174
0.176
0.149
0.114
0.150
0.163
1.190
1.203
0.971
1.269
1.145
1.400
1.422
1.140
1.128
1.128
1.104
1.088
1.024
1.000
1.179
1.031
1.060
1.103
1.009
1.059
1.027
1.138
1.101
1.010
1.083
1.068
1.000
1.019
1.044
1.092
1.040
0.989
1.067
1.088
1.011
1.019
1.009
1.106
1.060
0.990
Baseline
0.164
1.189
1.084
1.070
1.043
1.042
5 Year Trend
0.150
1.275
1.064
1.067
1.037
1.037
3 Year Trend
0.142
1.321
1.070
1.083
1.040
1.052
*Shaded progression ratios are excluded from the Baseline
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
54
Kindergarten Trend
Figure 10 shows kindergarten enrollment history in black, and trend lines depicting kindergarten
enrollment in red and blue. The “Long Term Trend” line averages kindergarten enrollment changes
over the last nine years. The “Recent Trend” line emphasizes kindergarten enrollment changes over
the last five years. The recent trend will be used to project kindergartners for the Kindergarten Trend
projections.
Figure 10
Spencer Loomis Elementary
Kindergarten Enrollment Trends
100
Projected
90
80
70
Students
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Long Term Trend
Recent Trend
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
Actual
55
Enrollment Projections
The Baseline model uses the grade progression ratios from the last nine years and long term trends
in births to project what future enrollment would look like. The Five Year Trend and the Three Year
Trend models use the grade progression ratios from the last five years and the last three years
respectively and the recent birth trends to project what future enrollment would look like if more
recent patterns were representative of future trends. The Kindergarten Trend model uses
kindergarten trends to project kindergartners and the 5 year trend grade progression ratios to project
grades 1-5.
TABLE 36
Baseline Projection Model
Spencer Loomis Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
18-19
19-20
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
K
1
2
3
4
5
63
74
70
71
104
90
57
75
80
75
74
109
54
68
81
86
79
77
54
65
74
87
89
82
54
64
70
79
90
93
TOTAL
472
470
444
450
450
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
52
64
70
75
82
94
51
62
69
75
78
86
49
60
68
74
78
81
48
59
66
72
77
81
46
57
64
70
75
80
438
421
411
403
393
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
TABLE 37
5 Year Trend Projection Model
Spencer Loomis Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
18-19
19-20
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
K
1
2
3
4
5
58
79
69
70
104
89
53
74
84
74
73
108
50
67
78
90
77
76
50
64
71
84
93
79
49
64
68
76
87
97
48
63
68
72
79
90
46
61
67
72
75
82
45
59
65
72
75
78
43
57
63
70
74
78
41
55
61
67
72
77
TOTAL
469
465
438
441
440
420
404
393
385
373
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
56
TABLE 38
3 Year Trend Projection Model
Spencer Loomis Elementary
SCHOOL YEAR
18-19
19-20
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
K
1
2
3
4
5
55
82
70
71
104
90
50
72
88
75
74
109
47
66
77
95
78
78
47
62
70
84
99
82
47
62
67
76
87
104
TOTAL
472
469
442
445
443
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
46
62
67
72
79
92
44
60
66
72
75
83
42
58
64
72
75
79
41
56
62
70
74
79
39
54
60
67
72
78
417
401
390
382
371
TABLE 39
Kindergarten Trend Projection Model
Spencer Loomis Elementary
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
K
1
2
3
4
5
55
79
69
70
104
89
54
70
84
74
73
108
52
68
75
90
77
76
50
66
73
80
93
79
48
64
70
77
83
97
47
62
68
75
80
86
45
60
66
73
78
83
43
57
63
70
75
81
42
55
61
68
73
78
40
53
59
65
70
75
TOTAL
467
462
437
441
439
418
404
390
376
362
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
57
Spencer Loomis Elementary
Figure 11
Elementary School Student Enrollment and Projections
700
600
Students
500
400
300
200
100
0
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
Actual
TABLE 40
Summary of Elementary School Enrollment Projections
Spencer Loomis Elementary
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
472
469
472
467
470
465
469
462
444
438
442
437
450
441
445
441
450
440
443
439
438
420
417
418
421
404
401
404
411
393
390
390
403
385
382
376
393
373
371
362
The 2013/14 enrollment is 481. All projection models project a slight decline in student enrollment
over the next few years followed by more significant decline. Enrollment projections five years from
now (2018/19) predict a range of enrollment from 439 to 450 students.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
58
Middle Schools
Figure 12 shows the enrollment history for the last ten years for North and South middle schools in
the Community Unit School District #95. Middle School North has been increasing recently while
Middle School South has been decreasing in enrollment.
Middle Schools
Figure 12
Student Enrollment
1,000
900
800
Students
700
600
500
400
300
04-05
05-06
06-07
07-08
08-09
North
09-10
10-11
11-12
12-13
13-14
South
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
59
Middle School North
Enrollment History
Tables 41 and 42 show enrollment history and enrollment change for Middle School North.
Enrollment has increased slightly by 8 students since 2004/05 (0.1% annually).
TABLE 41
Student Enrollment
Middle School North
SCHOOL YEAR
08-09
09-10
04-05
05-06
06-07
07-08
6
7
8
246
258
239
253
262
267
260
258
272
273
267
256
237
280
269
TOTAL
743
782
790
796
786
10-11
11-12
12-13
13-14
225
240
289
244
226
244
259
252
234
225
281
249
235
231
285
754
714
745
755
751
TABLE 42
Student Enrollment Changes
Middle School North
ABSOLUTE CHANGE
PERCENT CHANGE
AVERAGE ANNUAL
PERCENT CHANGE
'04 to '13 '04 to '08 '09 to '13
GRADE
'04 to '13
'04 to '08
'09 to '13
'04 to '13
'04 to '08
'09 to '13
6
7
8
-11
-27
46
-9
22
30
10
-9
-4
-4.5
-10.5
19.2
-3.7
8.5
12.6
4.4
-3.8
-1.4
-0.5
-1.2
2.1
-0.9
2.1
3.1
1.1
-0.9
-0.3
TOTAL
8
43
-3
1.1
5.8
-0.4
0.1
1.4
-0.1
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
60
Grade Progression Ratios
To review, grade progression ratios depict enrollment changes, year to year and grade to grade,
measuring the effects of in- and out-migration and the transfer of students between private and public
schools. Students from Seth Paine, Spencer Loomis, and approximately 48% of May Whitney attend
Middle School North. 5th grade enrollment and projections from these schools are used to calculate
grade progression ratios between fifth and sixth grades. Table 43 shows the grade progression ratios
for Middle School North.
TABLE 43
Grade Progression Ratios
Middle School North
YEAR
CHANGES
5:6
6:7
7:8
04-05/05-06
05-06/06-07
06-07/07-08
07-08/08-09
08-09/09-10
09-10/10-11
10-11/11-12
11-12/12-13
12-13/13-14
1.022
1.057
1.003
1.091
1.070
1.070
1.080
1.057
1.065
1.020
1.027
1.026
1.013
1.004
1.033
1.085
1.027
1.035
1.038
0.992
1.007
1.032
1.017
1.035
0.988
1.014
Baseline Average
1.067
1.021
1.026
5 Year Trend
1.074
1.032
1.017
3 Year Trend
1.069
1.048
1.013
*Shaded progression ratios are excluded from the Baseline
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
61
Enrollment Projections
The projections for Middle School North utilize actual and projected fifth grade enrollments from
the elementary schools in order to determine 6th grade projections. The Baseline model uses the grade
progression ratios from the last ten years to project what future enrollment will look like. The Five Year
Trend and the Three Year Trend uses the grade progression ratios from the last five years and the last
three years respectively to project what future enrollment will look like if more recent patterns were
representative of future trends.
TABLE 44
Baseline Projection Model
Middle School North
SCHOOL YEAR
18-19
19-20
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
6
7
8
229
240
237
217
234
246
230
221
240
215
235
227
203
220
241
TOTAL
706
697
691
677
663
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
214
207
226
215
219
212
195
219
224
185
200
225
185
189
205
647
645
639
609
578
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
TABLE 45
5 Year Trend Projection Model
Middle School North
SCHOOL YEAR
18-19
19-20
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
6
7
8
231
243
235
214
238
247
228
221
242
215
236
224
199
221
240
217
206
225
209
224
209
191
216
228
181
197
220
180
187
200
TOTAL
708
699
691
675
661
649
643
635
597
567
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
62
TABLE 46
3 Year Trend Projection Model
Middle School North
SCHOOL YEAR
18-19
19-20
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
6
7
8
230
246
234
218
241
249
235
228
244
227
247
231
212
238
250
TOTAL
710
708
708
705
700
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
235
222
241
225
246
225
205
236
250
194
215
239
194
204
218
699
697
690
648
615
TABLE 47
Kindergarten Trend Projection Model
Middle School North
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
6
7
8
231
243
235
214
238
247
228
221
242
215
236
224
199
221
240
217
206
225
206
224
209
202
212
228
197
208
216
193
204
212
TOTAL
708
699
691
675
661
649
640
642
621
608
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
63
Middle School North
Figure 13
Middle School Student Enrollment and Projections
1,000
900
800
Students
700
600
500
400
300
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
Actual
TABLE 48
Summary of Middle School Enrollment Projections
Middle School North
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
706
708
710
708
697
699
708
699
691
691
708
691
677
675
705
675
663
661
700
661
647
649
699
649
645
643
697
640
639
635
690
642
609
597
648
621
578
567
615
608
The 2013/14 enrollment is 751. The projection models project decreasing student enrollment over
the next decade although the Three Year Trend model projects steady enrollment after a drop next
year. Enrollment projections five years from now (2018/19) predict a range of enrollment from 661 to
700 students.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
64
Middle School South
Enrollment History
Tables 49 and 50 show enrollment history and enrollment change for Middle School South.
Enrollment has decreased significantly by 254 students, or 3.2% annually over the last ten years.
TABLE 49
Student Enrollment
Middle School South
SCHOOL YEAR
08-09
09-10
04-05
05-06
06-07
07-08
6
7
8
295
302
279
256
295
293
250
254
299
236
247
250
223
235
242
TOTAL
876
844
803
733
700
10-11
11-12
12-13
13-14
225
220
239
243
225
218
207
244
225
222
207
243
186
226
210
684
686
676
672
622
TABLE 50
Student Enrollment Changes
Middle School South
ABSOLUTE CHANGE
PERCENT CHANGE
AVERAGE ANNUAL
PERCENT CHANGE
'04 to '13 '04 to '08 '09 to '13
GRADE
'04 to '13
'04 to '08
'09 to '13
'04 to '13
'04 to '08
'09 to '13
6
7
8
-109
-76
-69
-72
-67
-37
-39
6
-29
-36.9
-25.2
-24.7
-24.4
-22.2
-13.3
-17.3
2.7
-12.1
-4.1
-2.8
-2.7
-6.1
-5.5
-3.3
-4.3
0.7
-3.0
TOTAL
-254
-176
-62
-29.0
-20.1
-9.1
-3.2
-5.0
-2.3
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
65
Grade Progression Ratios
To review, grade progression ratios depict enrollment changes, year to year and grade to grade,
measuring the effects of in- and out-migration and the transfer of students between private and public
schools. Students from Isaac Fox, Sarah Adams, and approximately 52% of May Whitney attend Middle
School South. 5th grade enrollment and projections from these schools are used to calculate grade
progression ratios between fifth and sixth grades. Table 51 shows the grade progression ratios for
Middle School South.
TABLE 51
Grade Progression Ratios
Middle School South
YEAR
CHANGES
04-05/05-06
05-06/06-07
06-07/07-08
07-08/08-09
08-09/09-10
09-10/10-11
10-11/11-12
11-12/12-13
12-13/13-14
5:6
0.000
1.010
0.919
0.980
0.992
1.000
0.822
0.997
0.835
6:7
1.000
0.992
0.988
0.996
0.987
1.000
1.004
1.000
1.018
7:8
0.970
1.014
0.984
0.980
1.017
0.991
1.000
0.996
1.014
Baseline Average
0.983
0.996
0.999
5 Year Trend
0.929
1.002
1.004
3 Year Trend
0.885
1.007
1.003
*Shaded progression ratios are excluded from the Baseline
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
66
Enrollment Projections
Projections for Middle School South utilize actual and projected fifth grade enrollments from the
elementary schools in order to provide 6th grade projections. The Baseline model uses the grade
progression ratios from the last ten years to project what future enrollments will look like. The Five
Year Trend and the Three Year Trend uses the grade progression ratios from the last five years and the
last three years respectively to project what future enrollments will look like if more recent patterns
were representative of future trends.
TABLE 52
Baseline Projection Model
Middle School South
SCHOOL YEAR
18-19
19-20
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
6
7
8
208
185
226
215
207
185
219
214
207
193
218
214
207
192
218
TOTAL
619
608
641
625
617
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
192
206
192
203
191
206
185
203
191
176
185
202
175
175
184
590
600
579
562
534
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
TABLE 53
5 Year Trend Projection Model
Middle School South
SCHOOL YEAR
18-19
19-20
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
6
7
8
197
186
227
203
197
187
204
203
198
180
205
204
191
180
205
180
191
181
187
180
192
171
188
181
162
171
188
161
162
172
TOTAL
610
587
606
589
576
552
560
540
521
495
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
67
TABLE 54
3 Year Trend Projection Model
Middle School South
SCHOOL YEAR
18-19
19-20
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
6
7
8
187
187
227
194
189
188
200
195
190
177
202
196
192
178
202
TOTAL
602
571
585
574
572
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
185
193
179
181
186
194
165
183
187
156
166
183
156
158
167
557
561
535
506
481
TABLE 55
Kindergarten Trend Projection Model
Middle School South
GRADE
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
6
7
8
197
186
227
203
197
187
204
203
198
180
205
204
191
180
205
180
191
181
177
180
192
171
177
181
165
171
178
159
165
172
TOTAL
610
587
606
589
576
552
549
529
514
497
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
68
Middle School South
Figure 14
Middle School Student Enrollment and Projections
1,000
900
800
Students
700
600
500
400
300
Baseline
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
Actual
TABLE 56
Summary of Middle School Enrollment Projections
Middle School South
Baseline
5 Year Trend
2 Year "Trend"
Kindergarten Trend
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
619
610
602
610
608
587
571
587
641
606
585
606
625
589
574
589
617
576
572
576
590
552
557
552
600
560
561
549
579
540
535
529
562
521
506
514
534
495
481
497
The 2013/14 enrollment is 622. All projection models predict an enrollment decline in the next two
years followed by increased student enrollment the third year. Overall enrollment decline will likely
occur in the foreseeable future. Enrollment projections five years from now (2018/19) predict a range
of enrollment from 572 to 617 students.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Community Unit School District #95
69