FAPRI 2010
U.S. AND WORLD AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK
January 2010
FAPRI Staff Report 10-FSR 1
ISSN 1534-4533
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute
Iowa State University
University of Missouri-Columbia
Ames, Iowa
U.S.A.
Iowa State University
Miguel Carriquiry
Fengxia Dong
Xiaodong Du
Amani Elobeid
Jacinto Fabiosa
Chad Hart
Dermot J. Hayes
Karen Kovarik
Kranti Mulik
Eric Wailes (University of Arkansas)
Ed Chavez (University of Arkansas)
Marcelo Moreira (Institute for International Trade Negotiations, Brazil)
University of Missouri-Columbia
Julian Binfield
D. Scott Brown
Scott Gerlt
Daniel Madison
Seth Meyer
William H. Meyers
Wyatt Thompson
Patrick Westhoff
Lori Wilcox
Abner W. Womack
Published by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, Iowa State University and the University of
Missouri-Columbia, 2010.
Material in this publication is based upon work supported by the National Institute of Food and Agriculture,
U.S. Department of Agriculture, under Agreement No. 2009-34149-19802.
Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors
and do not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Permission is granted to reproduce this information with appropriate attribution to the authors and the Food and
Agricultural Policy Research Institute.
Iowa State University does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, age, religion, national origin, sexual orientation, gender
identity, sex, marital status, disability, or status as a U.S. Veteran. Inquiries can be directed to the Director of Equal Opportunity and
Diversity, 3680 Beardshear Hall, 515-294-7612.
Contents
Figures List............................................................................................................................ iv
Tables List ............................................................................................................................. vi
Abbreviations and Acronyms ................................................................................................xv
Marketing Year Definitions ..................................................................................................xvi
Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... 1
Overview of the 2010 U.S. and World Outlook ..................................................................... 3
Charts and Price Projections .................................................................................................15
Baseline Assumptions ...........................................................................................................51
World Macroeconomic Assumptions ................................................................................52
U.S. Program Provisions ...................................................................................................58
World Agricultural Policy Assumptions ...........................................................................60
U.S. Crops .............................................................................................................................71
U.S. Wheat ........................................................................................................................72
U.S. Rice ...........................................................................................................................74
U.S. Corn ..........................................................................................................................78
U.S. Ethanol and Biofuel Policy Provisions .....................................................................80
U.S. Corn Products ...........................................................................................................82
U.S. Corn Processing ........................................................................................................84
U.S. Sorghum ....................................................................................................................86
U.S. Barley ........................................................................................................................88
U.S. Oats ...........................................................................................................................90
U.S. Hay ............................................................................................................................92
U.S. Soybeans and Soybean Products ..............................................................................94
U.S. Biodiesel ...................................................................................................................98
U.S. Sunflower Seed and Sunflower Seed Products .......................................................100
U.S. Canola Seed and Canola Seed Products .................................................................104
U.S. Peanuts and Peanut Products ..................................................................................107
U.S. Upland Cotton and Cottonseed Products ................................................................ 110
U.S. Sugar ....................................................................................................................... 114
U.S. Livestock and Dairy .................................................................................................... 117
U.S. Beef ......................................................................................................................... 118
U.S. Pork .........................................................................................................................120
U.S. Poultry.....................................................................................................................122
U.S. Dairy .......................................................................................................................126
U.S. State-Level Dairy Supply .......................................................................................128
U.S. Dairy Products ........................................................................................................132
U.S. Aggregate Measures ....................................................................................................135
U.S. Land Use .................................................................................................................136
U.S. Food Prices and Expenditures ................................................................................138
U.S. Government Costs ..................................................................................................140
iv
U.S. Cash Receipts from Farm Marketings ....................................................................142
U.S. Farm Production Expenses .....................................................................................144
U.S. Prices Paid by Farmers ...........................................................................................146
U.S. Net Farm Income ....................................................................................................148
U.S. Crop Insurance ........................................................................................................150
World Wheat........................................................................................................................153
World Rice...........................................................................................................................167
World Coarse Grains ...........................................................................................................185
World Oilseeds and Products ..............................................................................................223
World Soybeans and Soybean Products ..........................................................................224
World Rapeseed and Rapeseed Products ........................................................................242
World Sunflower Seed and Sunflower Seed Products ....................................................256
World Palm Oil and Palm Kernel Products ....................................................................268
World Peanuts and Peanut Products ...............................................................................276
World Cotton .......................................................................................................................289
World Sugar.........................................................................................................................301
World Biofuels ....................................................................................................................321
World Ethanol .................................................................................................................322
World Biodiesel ..............................................................................................................323
World Meat ..........................................................................................................................329
World Beef and Veal .......................................................................................................330
World Pork ......................................................................................................................332
World Poultry ..................................................................................................................334
World Dairy Products ..........................................................................................................365
World Butter and Cheese ................................................................................................366
World Milk Powder.........................................................................................................369
Figures
Average Annual GDP Growth, 2009-2019............................................................................16
Average Annual Exchange Rate Growth, 2009-2019 ...........................................................16
U.S. Biofuel Use Mandates ...................................................................................................17
U.S. Conservation Reserve Program Area ............................................................................17
U.S. Crop Planted Area .........................................................................................................18
U.S. Crop Exports .................................................................................................................18
v
U.S. Crop Prices ....................................................................................................................19
U.S. Feed and Residual Disappearance.................................................................................19
U.S. Biofuel Production ........................................................................................................20
U.S. Farm-Level Prices Paid Indices ....................................................................................20
U.S. Cattle and Barrow and Gilt Prices.................................................................................21
U.S. Poultry Wholesale Prices ..............................................................................................21
U.S. Livestock Production ....................................................................................................22
U.S. Meat Net Exports ..........................................................................................................22
U.S. Milk Production ............................................................................................................23
U.S. Milk Prices ....................................................................................................................23
U.S. Land Use .......................................................................................................................24
Mandatory U.S. Government Outlays, Fiscal Year ...............................................................24
U.S. Farm Income .................................................................................................................25
U.S. Consumer Price Index for Food ....................................................................................25
World Wheat Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price ...................................................................26
World Wheat Net Trade and U.S. Market Share ...................................................................26
World Rice Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price ......................................................................27
World Rice Net Exports .......................................................................................................27
World Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .........................................................................28
World Corn Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price ......................................................................28
World Corn Net Trade and U.S. Market Share .....................................................................29
World Barley and Sorghum Net Trade and Prices ................................................................29
World Soybean Area Harvested and Price ............................................................................30
World Soybean Net Trade .....................................................................................................30
World Soybean Crush ...........................................................................................................31
World Soybean Meal Net Trade ...........................................................................................31
World Soybean Oil Net Trade ...............................................................................................32
Soybean Oil Per Capita Consumption in Selected Countries ...............................................32
World Rapeseed Area Harvested and Price ...........................................................................33
World Rapeseed Net Trade ....................................................................................................33
World Rapeseed Meal Net Trade ..........................................................................................34
World Rapeseed Oil Net Trade..............................................................................................34
World Sunflower Area Harvested and Price ..........................................................................35
World Sunflower Net Trade...................................................................................................35
World Sunflower Meal Net Trade .........................................................................................36
World Sunflower Oil Net Trade ............................................................................................36
World Palm Oil Net Trade and Price .....................................................................................37
vi
World Peanut Area Harvested and Price ...............................................................................37
World Cotton Consumption ..................................................................................................38
World Cotton Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price ...................................................................38
Major Sugar Net Exporters and World Raw Sugar Price ......................................................39
Major Sugar Net Importers ...................................................................................................39
World Ethanol Price and Net Trade.......................................................................................40
World Biodiesel Price and Net Trade ....................................................................................40
World Meat Production and Trade ........................................................................................41
Per Capita Meat Consumption .............................................................................................41
Major Beef Importing Countries ..........................................................................................42
Beef Export Market Share ....................................................................................................42
Major Pork Importing Countries ...........................................................................................43
Pork Export Market Share .....................................................................................................43
Major Broiler Importing Countries .......................................................................................44
Broiler Export Market Share .................................................................................................44
Butter Net Exports for Selected Countries ...........................................................................45
Cheese Net Exports for Selected Countries ..........................................................................45
NFD Trade for Selected Countries .......................................................................................46
WMP Trade for Selected Countries.......................................................................................46
Tables
Commodity Price Projections ...............................................................................................47
Real GDP Growth Projections ..............................................................................................53
GDP Deflator Growth Projections.........................................................................................54
Exchange Rate Growth Projections ......................................................................................55
Population Growth Projections .............................................................................................56
U.S. Program Provisions .......................................................................................................59
Agricultural Policy Assumptions for Crops ..........................................................................61
Agricultural Policy Assumptions for Biofuels ......................................................................65
Agricultural Policy Assumptions for Livestock and Dairy Products ....................................66
Other Agricultural Policy Assumptions ................................................................................70
U.S. Wheat Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................73
U.S. Rice Supply and Utilization ..........................................................................................75
U.S. Long-Grain Rice Supply and Utilization ......................................................................76
U.S. Medium- and Short-Grain Rice Supply and Utilization ...............................................77
U.S. Corn Supply and Utilization .........................................................................................79
U.S. Ethanol Supply and Utilization .....................................................................................81
U.S. Biofuel Policy Provisions..............................................................................................81
U.S. Corn Products Supply and Utilization ..........................................................................83
vii
U.S. Corn Processing ............................................................................................................85
U.S. Sorghum Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................87
U.S. Barley Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................89
U.S. Oat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................91
U.S. Hay Supply and Utilization ...........................................................................................93
U.S. Soybean Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................95
U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Utilization ..........................................................................96
U.S. Soybean Oil Supply and Utilization..............................................................................97
U.S. Biodiesel Sector ............................................................................................................99
U.S. Vegetable Oil Consumption ..........................................................................................99
U.S. Sunflower Seed Supply and Utilization ......................................................................101
U.S. Sunflower Meal Supply and Utilization ......................................................................102
U.S. Sunflower Oil Supply and Utilization .........................................................................103
U.S. Canola Seed Supply and Utilization ...........................................................................105
U.S. Canola Meal Supply and Utilization ...........................................................................106
U.S. Canola Oil Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................106
U.S. Peanut Supply and Utilization.....................................................................................108
U.S. Peanut Meal Supply and Utilization ...........................................................................109
U.S. Peanut Oil Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................109
U.S. Upland Cotton Supply and Utilization ........................................................................ 111
U.S. Cottonseed Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 112
U.S. Cottonseed Meal Supply and Utilization .................................................................... 113
U.S. Cottonseed Oil Supply and Utilization ....................................................................... 113
U.S. Sugar Crop Production ................................................................................................ 115
U.S. Sugar Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................... 115
U.S. Beef Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................ 119
U.S. Pork Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................121
U.S. Broiler Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................123
U.S. Turkey Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................124
U.S. Egg Supply and Utilization .........................................................................................125
U.S. Milk Component Supply and Utilization ....................................................................127
U.S. Dairy Cows by State ...................................................................................................129
U.S. Milk Production by State ............................................................................................130
U.S. All-Milk Prices by State ..............................................................................................131
U.S. Dairy Product Supply and Utilization .........................................................................133
U.S. Land Use for Major Crops ..........................................................................................137
U.S. Consumer Price Indexes for Food ...............................................................................139
U.S. Per Capita Consumer Expenditures for Food .............................................................139
U.S. Net Government Outlays ............................................................................................141
U.S. Cash Receipts from Farming.......................................................................................143
U.S. Farm Production Expenses..........................................................................................145
U.S. Indices of Prices Paid by Farmers ...............................................................................147
U.S. Indices of Prices Paid by Farmers (percent change) ...................................................147
U.S. Farm Income Statistics ................................................................................................149
U.S. Crop Insurance ............................................................................................................151
viii
Wheat Trade ........................................................................................................................155
World Wheat Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................156
U.S. Wheat Supply and Utilization .....................................................................................156
Algerian Wheat Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................157
Argentine Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................157
Australian Wheat Supply and Utilization............................................................................157
Brazilian Wheat Supply and Utilization..............................................................................158
Canadian Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................158
Chinese Wheat Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................159
Egyptian Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................159
European Union Wheat Supply and Utilization .................................................................159
Indian Wheat Supply and Utilization .................................................................................160
Iranian Wheat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................160
Japanese Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................160
Mexican Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................161
Moroccan Wheat Supply and Utilization ...........................................................................161
Other African/Middle Eastern Wheat Supply and Utilization ...........................................161
Other Asian Wheat Supply and Utilization ........................................................................162
Other CIS Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................162
Other Eastern European Wheat Supply and Utilization .....................................................162
Other Latin American Wheat Supply and Utilization ........................................................163
Pakistani Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................163
Russian Wheat Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................163
South Korean Wheat Supply and Utilization .....................................................................164
Taiwanese Wheat Supply and Utilization ..........................................................................164
Tunisian Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................164
Ukrainian Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................165
Rest-of-World Wheat Supply and Utilization ....................................................................165
Per Capita Wheat Consumption of Selected Countries .......................................................166
Rice Trade ...........................................................................................................................169
World Rice Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................170
U.S. Rice Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................170
Argentine Rice Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................171
Australian Rice Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................171
Bangladeshi Rice Supply and Utilization ..........................................................................171
Brazilian Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................172
Cambodian Rice Supply and Utilization .............................................................................172
Cameroonian Rice Supply and Utilization ..........................................................................172
Canadian Rice Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................173
Chinese Rice Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................173
Cote d’Ivoire Rice Supply and Utilization .........................................................................173
Egyptian Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................174
European Union Rice Supply and Utilization ....................................................................174
Ghanaian Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................174
Guinean Rice Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................175
ix
Chinese - Hong Kong Rice Supply and Utilization ...........................................................175
Indian Rice Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................175
Indonesian Rice Supply and Utilization .............................................................................176
Iranian Rice Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................176
Iraqi Rice Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................176
Japanese Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................177
Kenyan Rice Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................177
Malaysian Rice Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................177
Malian Rice and Supply and Utilization .............................................................................178
Mexican Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................178
Mozambican Rice Supply and Utilization ..........................................................................178
Myanmarian Rice Supply and Utilization ..........................................................................179
Nigerian Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................179
Pakistani Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................179
Philippine Rice Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................180
Saudi Arabian Rice Supply and Utilization .......................................................................180
Senegalese Rice and Supply and Utilization .......................................................................180
Sierra Leonean Rice and Supply and Utilization ................................................................181
South African Rice Supply and Utilization ........................................................................181
South Korean Rice Supply and Utilization ........................................................................181
Taiwanese Rice Supply and Utilization .............................................................................182
Tanzanian Rice Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................182
Thai Rice Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................182
Turkish Rice Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................183
Uruguayan Rice Supply and Utilization ............................................................................183
Vietnamese Rice Supply and Utilization ............................................................................183
Rest-of-World Rice Supply and Utilization .......................................................................184
Per Capita Rice Consumption of Selected Countries ..........................................................184
Corn Trade ...........................................................................................................................187
Barley Trade ........................................................................................................................188
Sorghum Trade ....................................................................................................................189
World Corn Supply and Utilization .....................................................................................190
World Barley Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................190
World Sorghum Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................191
U.S. Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ..........................................................................192
Algerian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ...................................................................194
Argentine Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .................................................................195
Australian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .................................................................196
Brazilian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ...................................................................197
Canadian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ..................................................................198
Chinese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ....................................................................199
Egyptian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ...................................................................199
European Union Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .......................................................200
Indian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .......................................................................201
Indonesian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................201
Israeli Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .......................................................................202
x
Japanese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ...................................................................203
Malaysian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .................................................................203
Mexican Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ...................................................................204
Nigerian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ...................................................................205
Other African Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ...........................................................205
Other Asian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ..............................................................206
Other Eastern European Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ...........................................207
Other CIS Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .................................................................208
Other Latin American Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ..............................................209
Other Middle Eastern Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ...............................................210
Pakistani Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................... 211
Philippine Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .................................................................212
Russian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .....................................................................212
Saudi Arabian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...........................................................213
South African Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ...........................................................214
South Korean Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ...........................................................215
Taiwanese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization.................................................................215
Thai Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ..........................................................................216
Ukrainian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .................................................................216
Vietnamese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ...............................................................217
Rest-of-World Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ..........................................................218
Per Capita Grain Consumption of Selected Countries .......................................................219
Soybean Trade .....................................................................................................................225
Soybean Meal Trade ............................................................................................................226
Soybean Oil Trade ...............................................................................................................226
World Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ....................................................................227
U.S. Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ......................................................................228
Argentine Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ..............................................................229
Brazilian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ...............................................................230
Canadian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ..............................................................231
Chinese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization .................................................................232
European Union Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ...................................................233
Indian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ...................................................................234
Japanese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ...............................................................235
Mexican Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization................................................................236
Other CIS Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization .............................................................237
Paraguyan Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization .............................................................238
South Korean Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization .......................................................239
Taiwanese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization .............................................................240
Rest-of-World Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization.......................................................241
Rapeseed Trade ...................................................................................................................243
Rapeseed Meal Trade ..........................................................................................................243
Rapeseed Oil Trade .............................................................................................................244
World Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization ..................................................................245
U.S. Canola Sector Supply and Utilization .........................................................................246
xi
Australian Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization ...........................................................247
Canadian Canola Sector Supply and Utilization .................................................................248
Chinese Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization ...............................................................249
European Union Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization ..................................................250
Indian Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization ..................................................................251
Japanese Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization ..............................................................252
Other CIS Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization ............................................................253
Ukrainian Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization ............................................................254
Rest-of-World Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization .....................................................255
Sunflower Seed Trade .........................................................................................................257
Sunflower Meal Trade .........................................................................................................257
Sunflower Oil Trade ............................................................................................................258
World Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization .................................................................259
U.S. Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization ....................................................................260
Argentine Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization ...........................................................261
Chinese Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization ..............................................................262
European Union-25 Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization ...........................................263
Other CIS Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization...........................................................264
Ukrainian Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization ...........................................................265
Rest-of-World Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization ....................................................266
Palm Sector Trade ...............................................................................................................269
World Palm Sector Supply and Utilization .........................................................................270
Chinese Palm Sector Supply and Utilization ......................................................................271
European Union Palm Sector Supply and Utilization .........................................................271
Indian Palm Sector Supply and Utilization .........................................................................272
Indonesian Palm Sector Supply and Utilization..................................................................272
Malaysian Palm Sector Supply and Utilization ..................................................................273
Rest-of-World Palm Sector Supply and Utilization ............................................................274
Peanut Sector Trade.............................................................................................................277
World Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization.......................................................................278
U.S. Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization .........................................................................279
Argentine Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization.................................................................280
Chinese Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization....................................................................281
European Union Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization ......................................................282
Indian Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization ......................................................................283
Canadian Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization .................................................................284
Mexican Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization ..................................................................284
Rest-of-World Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization .........................................................285
Per Capita Vegetable Oil Consumption of Selected Countries ..........................................286
Cotton Trade ........................................................................................................................291
World Cotton Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................292
U.S. Cotton Supply and Utilization.....................................................................................292
African Cotton Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................292
xii
Argentine Cotton Supply and Utilization ............................................................................293
Australian Cotton Supply and Utilization ...........................................................................293
Brazilian Cotton Supply and Utilization .............................................................................293
Canadian Cotton Supply and Utilization.............................................................................294
Chinese Cotton Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................294
European Union Cotton Supply and Utilization .................................................................294
Indian Cotton Supply and Utilization .................................................................................295
Indonesian Cotton Supply and Utilization ..........................................................................295
Japanese Cotton Supply and Utilization .............................................................................295
Kazakhstan Cotton Supply and Utilization .........................................................................296
Mexican Cotton Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................296
Other Asian Cotton Supply and Utilization ........................................................................296
Other European Cotton Supply and Utilization ..................................................................297
Other CIS Cotton Supply and Utilization ...........................................................................297
Other Latin American Cotton Supply and Utilization.........................................................297
Other Middle Eastern Cotton Supply and Utilization .........................................................298
Pakistani Cotton Supply and Utilization .............................................................................298
Russian Cotton Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................298
South Korean Cotton Supply and Utilization......................................................................299
Taiwanese Cotton Supply and Utilization ...........................................................................299
Turkish Cotton Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................300
Uzbek Cotton Supply and Utilization .................................................................................300
Sugar Trade .........................................................................................................................303
World Sugar Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................304
U.S. Sugar Supply and Utilization ......................................................................................305
Algerian Sugar Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................306
Argentine Sugar Supply and Utilization .............................................................................306
Australian Sugar Supply and Utilization.............................................................................307
Brazilian Sugar Supply and Utilization...............................................................................307
Canadian Sugar Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................308
Chinese Sugar Supply and Utilization ................................................................................308
Colombian Sugar Supply and Utilization ...........................................................................309
Cuban Sugar Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................309
Egyptian Sugar Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................310
European Union Sugar Supply and Utilization ...................................................................310
Guatemalan Sugar Supply and Utilization ......................................................................... 311
Indian Sugar Supply and Utilization ................................................................................... 311
Indonesian Sugar Supply and Utilization ............................................................................312
Iranian Sugar Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................312
Japanese Sugar Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................313
Malaysian Sugar Supply and Utilization.............................................................................313
Mexican Sugar Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................314
Moroccan Sugar Supply and Utilization .............................................................................314
Pakistani Sugar Supply and Utilization...............................................................................315
Peruvian Sugar Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................315
xiii
Philippine Sugar Supply and Utilization .............................................................................316
Russian and Ukrainian Sugar Supply and Utilization .........................................................316
South African Sugar Supply and Utilization .......................................................................317
South Korean Sugar Supply and Utilization .......................................................................317
Thai Sugar Supply and Utilization ......................................................................................318
Turkish Sugar Supply and Utilization .................................................................................318
Ukrainian Sugar Supply and Utilization .............................................................................319
Venezuelan Sugar Supply and Utilization ...........................................................................319
Per Capita Sugar Consumption of Selected Countries ........................................................320
Ethanol Trade ......................................................................................................................324
Biodiesel Trade....................................................................................................................324
U.S. Biofuels Production and Consumption .......................................................................325
Argentine Biofuels Production and Consumption ..............................................................325
Brazilian Biofuels Production and Consumption ................................................................325
Canadian Biofuels Production and Consumption ...............................................................326
Chinese Biofuels Production and Consumption .................................................................326
European Union Biofuels Production and Consumption ....................................................326
Indian Biofuels Production and Consumption ....................................................................326
Indonesian Biofuels Production and Consumption .............................................................327
Japanese Biofuels Production and Consumption ................................................................327
South Korean Biofuels Production and Consumption ........................................................327
Malaysian Biofuels Production and Consumption ..............................................................327
Rest-of-World Biofuels Production and Consumption .......................................................327
Beef and Veal Trade ............................................................................................................331
Pork Trade ...........................................................................................................................333
Broiler Meat Trade ..............................................................................................................335
U.S. Meat Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................336
Argentine Meat Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................337
Australian Meat Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................338
Brazilian Meat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................339
Canadian Meat Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................340
Chinese - Mainland Meat Supply and Utilization ...............................................................341
Chinese - Hong Kong Meat Supply and Utilization ...........................................................342
Egyptian Meat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................343
European Union Meat Supply and Utilization ....................................................................344
Indian Meat Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................345
Indonesian Meat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................346
Japanese Meat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................347
Mexican Meat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................348
New Zealand Meat Supply and Utilization .........................................................................349
Other CIS Meat Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................350
Other Eastern European Meat Supply and Utilization ........................................................351
Paraguayan Meat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................352
Philippine Meat Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................353
xiv
Russian Meat Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................354
Saudi Arabian Meat Supply and Utilization........................................................................355
South African Meat Supply and Utilization ........................................................................355
South Korean Meat Supply and Utilization ........................................................................356
Taiwanese Meat Supply and Utilization..............................................................................357
Thai Meat Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................358
Ukrainian Meat Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................359
Vietnamese Meat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................360
Rest-of-World Meat Supply and Utilization .......................................................................361
Per Capita Meat Consumption of Selected Countries .........................................................362
Butter Trade .........................................................................................................................367
Cheese Trade .......................................................................................................................368
Nonfat Dry Milk Trade........................................................................................................370
Whole Milk Powder Trade ..................................................................................................371
U.S. Dairy Supply and Utilization ......................................................................................372
Algerian Dairy Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................373
Argentine Dairy Supply and Utilization..............................................................................374
Australian Dairy Supply and Utilization .............................................................................375
Brazilian Dairy Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................376
Canadian Dairy Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................377
Chinese Dairy Supply and Utilization.................................................................................378
Colombian Dairy Supply and Utilization ............................................................................379
Egyptian Dairy Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................380
European Union Dairy Supply and Utilization ...................................................................381
Indian Dairy Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................382
Indonesian Dairy Supply and Utilization ............................................................................383
Japanese Dairy Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................384
Malaysian Dairy Supply and Utilization .............................................................................385
Mexican Dairy Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................386
New Zealand Dairy Supply and Utilization ........................................................................387
Peruvian Dairy Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................388
Philippine Dairy Supply and Utilization .............................................................................389
Russian Dairy Supply and Utilization .................................................................................390
Saudi Arabian Dairy Supply and Utilization .......................................................................391
South Korean Dairy Supply and Utilization .......................................................................392
Swiss Dairy Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................393
Thai Dairy Supply and Utilization ......................................................................................394
Ukrainian Dairy Supply and Utilization .............................................................................395
Uruguayan Dairy Supply and Utilization ............................................................................396
Venezuelan Diary Supply and Utilization ...........................................................................397
Vietnamese Dairy Supply and Utilization ..........................................................................398
Per Capita Dairy Consumption of Selected Countries ........................................................399
xv
Abbreviations and Acronyms
This list of abbreviations and acronyms used in the Agricultural Outlook is provided for the convenience of our readers.
Commonly used abbreviations and acronyms typically are not spelled out in the text.
a
ACRE
AI
AWP
BSE
bu
CAP
CBO
CCC
CCPs
CIF
CIS
CMO
COOL
CPI
CRP
cwt
DDG
DDGS
DPs
EISA
EPA
EU
EU-15
EU NMS
FAPRI
FCEA
acre
Average Crop Revenue Election
avian influenza
adjusted world price
bovine spongiform encephalopathy
bushel
Common Agricultural Policy
Congressional Budget Office
Commodity Credit Corporation
countercyclical payments
cost, insurance, and freight
Commonwealth of Independent States
Common Market Organization
Country of Original Labeling
Consumer Price Index
Conservation Reserve Program
hundredweight
distillers dried grains
distillers dried grains with solubles
direct payments
Energy Independence and Security Act of
2007
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
27 member states of the European Union
15 member states of the European Union,
prior to 2004 enlargement
12 European Union New Member States,
after 2004 and 2007 enlargement
Food and Agricultural Policy Research
Institute
Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of
2008 (2008 farm bill)
FE
FFV
FMD
FOB
FY
GDP
GMO
ha
HFCS
kg
LDPs
mha
MILC
mmt
mt
NAFTA
NE
NFD
NFI
OECD
RFS2
RINs
ROW
SFP
SPS
SURE
tmt
TRQ
USDA
WMP
WTO
Far East
flex-fuel vehicle
foot-and-mouth disease
free on board
fiscal year
gross domestic product
genetically modified organism
hectare
high-fructose corn syrup
kilogram
loan deficiency payments
million hectares
Milk Income Loss Contract
million metric tons
metric ton
North American Free Trade Agreement
Northern Europe
nonfat dry (milk)
net farm income
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development
Renewable Fuel Standard under EISA
Renewable Identification Numbers
Rest-of-World
Single Farm Payment (CAP reform)
sanitary and phytosanitary
Supplemental Revenue Assistance
Payments program
thousand metric tons
tariff rate quota
U.S. Department of Agriculture
whole milk powder
World Trade Organization
xvi
Data Notes
Data Sources
Most U.S. commodity supply and use information is obtained from USDA reports issued by the Economic Research
Service, the World Agricultural Outlook Board, the Farm Service Agency, and the National Agricultural Statistics Service.
This information is supplemented with information from a number of other public and private sources, including the Energy
Information Administration, state governments, and trade groups.
The international models use the USDA PSD database as the primary source of supply and utilization data. This is then
supplemented with the FAO database and other specialized data sources when needed. For example, major sources for
the Brazil module include the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE); National Company of Food Supply
(CONAB); Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa); Ministry of Development, Industry and Trade (MDIC);
Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA); National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels (ANP); and the Center
for Advanced Studies and Applied Economics (CEPEA).
Macroeconomic variables are from the International Financial Statistics database, which is extended using IHS Global
Insight projections. Population data and projections are from the U.S. Bureau of the Census International Database. Policies
relating to domestic support, border protection, and export subsidies are from the World Trade Organization database. Costs
and prices are from various sources, including government as well as industry publications.
U.S. Marketing Year Definitions for Specified Commodities
Barley: June 1 to May 31.
Corn for Grain: September 1 to August 31.
Cotton: August 1 to July 31.
Oats: June 1 to May 31.
Peanuts: August 1 to July 31.
Rice: August 1 to July 31.
Sorghum for Grain: September 1 to August 31.
Soybeans: September 1 to August 31.
Sugar: October 1 to September 30.
Sunflower: September 1 to August 31.
Wheat: June 1 to May 31.
Livestock, dairy complex and international ethanol: years are calendar years.
Government outlays are on a fiscal-year basis (Oct. 1—Sept. 30, with the second year being the one used as an identifier—for
example, FY 2007 = Oct. 1, 2006–Sept. 30, 2007).
Farm income data are on a calendar-year basis.
International Marketing Year Definitions for Specified Commodities
Grains, rice, oilseeds, and cotton: USDA-FAS PS&D data are used, which are in local marketing years. Local marketing
years differ by country and by commodity. The first year listed is the beginning year of a country’s local marketing year for
that commodity (for example, 1990/91 represents local marketing year starting in 1990 and ending in 1991), except in the
case of southern hemisphere countries, which use the second year to denote the beginning of the local marketing year.
Sugar: the year listed is the last year of the countries’ local marketing year (for example, 1990 represents 1989/90).
Livestock and dairy complex: years are calendar years.
Executive Summary: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 1
Executive Summary
The FAPRI 2010 U.S. and World Agricultural
Outlook presents projections of world agricultural
production, consumption, and trade under average
weather patterns, existing farm policy, and policy
commitments under current trade agreements and custom
unions. The outlook uses a macroeconomic forecast
developed by IHS Global Insight.
The slowdown in the world economy in 2009
proved to be deeper and more widespread than originally
anticipated, with an annual rate of real GDP growth
of -1.9%. However, recovery is projected to begin in
2010, with long-term real GDP growth of 3.3% reached
by 2011. With the recovery primarily driven by a fiscal
stimulus and restocking of inventory, its sustainability
centers on how quickly and robustly confidence is
restored and the employment picture is improved, leading
to transition into private consumption and investment
demand for medium- to longer-term growth. Also, the
economic recovery is accompanied by stronger energy
prices of $94.2 per barrel in 2019, a cost pressure that
might take some of the steam off the growth momentum.
The U.S. dollar made significant gains in 2009 but
resumes its real depreciation over the rest of the decade
against the currencies of Australia, the EU, New Zealand,
and Argentina. Many Asian currencies appreciate in real
terms against the U.S. dollar, with China experiencing
especially large real appreciations.
In the world ethanol market, the 37% drop in crude
oil prices in 2009 as well as the 60% reduction in U.S.
ethanol net imports contribute to an 8% decline in the
world price of ethanol. The ethanol price is projected
to remain relatively stable in 2010 before declining by
9% in 2011. The price of ethanol increases over the rest
of the projection period as a result of increased demand
brought about by U.S. biofuel mandates. U.S. ethanol
imports are expected to come mainly from Brazil, which
continues to increase the share of sugarcane production
going into ethanol. World net trade increases over the
decade, approaching 4.2 billion gallons. Mandates also
drive demand for biodiesel in the EU and the Americas and
raise net trade to 602 million gallons as well as pushing the
world price to $5.58 per gallon.
In the outlook for sugar, because of the production
shortfall in 2009/10, particularly in India, the world price
of sugar increases by almost 60%. The price declines
by 26%, to 19.0¢/lb, in the following year as countries
recover. However, it continues to remain high and reaches
20.4¢/lb by the end of the projection period, as more
sugarcane is used for ethanol in Brazil, and sugar imports
of countries like China and the EU remain strong.
The world wheat price drops to $216 in 2009/10
because of larger crop production in key wheat importing
countries, which lowers import demand. After downward
pressure from high carryover stocks in 2010/11, the price
strengthens and reaches $222.7 per mt at the end of the
decade. With strong competition from Russia and Ukraine,
the U.S. loses market share in the world wheat market. U.S.
net exports of wheat are projected to decline over the next
decade. The world corn price decreases to $162.9 per mt in
2009/10. It is projected to increase in 2010/11 to $168.3 per
mt and reach $175.6 per mt in 2019/20. Argentina regains its
market share while Brazil loses its market share. The world
barley price declines in 2009/10 to $135 with lower import
demand in world markets. It is projected to decline further,
to $131.9, in 2010/11 and to reach $148 in 2019/20.
World prices of oilseeds remain relatively stable in
2009/10 as the supply rebound (especially for soybeans)
is met with increased demand because of the economic
recovery. Vegetable oils lead the oilseeds complex, as
demand from both food and biodiesel uses expands
firmly over the outlook period. While Asian countries,
and in particular China and India, underpin much of the
food demand growth, consumption mandates in the EU,
Argentina, Brazil, and the U.S. strongly expand the usage
for biodiesel production. Increased demand for protein meal
from the growing and intensifying livestock sector in Asia
supports the price of meal against the backdrop of large
supplies owing to strong oil-driven crush and relatively
stable demand for this commodity from developed countries.
Sanitary/phytosanitary and food safety concerns
stemming from disease outbreaks and from traceability
issues continued to affect the world meat market. While
recovery from the economic recession in 2009 continues,
income and population growth raises per capita meat
consumption and fuels expansion in world trade. Meat
trade is projected to increase by 22.5%, reaching 20.5 mmt
in 2019. A recovery in demand, coupled with strong grain
prices, keeps all meat prices relatively high over the next
decade. Brazil and the U.S. gain significant shares in the
world meat market.
Dairy prices declined significantly in 2008/09 as a result
of economic recession. They increase in 2010 because of
economic recovery. In the long run, growth in population and
incomes continues to put upward pressure on dairy prices.
Australia, New Zealand, and the EU remain the big exporters.
While exports from the EU stagnate, Argentina and Brazil
expand their dairy exports. The Asian countries, Russia, and
Overview: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 3
Overview of the 2010 U.S. and World Outlook
The Macroeconomic Environment
Macroeconomic projections used in the 2010
FAPRI baseline were obtained from IHS Global
Insight. The slowdown in the world economy in
2009 proved to be deeper and more widespread
than originally anticipated, with an annual rate of
real GDP growth of -1.9%. However, recovery is
projected to begin in 2010, with long-term real GDP
growth of 3.3% reached by 2011. With the recovery
primarily driven by a fiscal stimulus and restocking of
inventory, its sustainability centers on how quickly and
robustly confidence is restored and the employment
picture is improved, leading to transition into private
consumption and investment demand for medium- to
longer-term growth. Also, the economic recovery is
accompanied by stronger energy prices of $94.2 per
barrel in 2019, a cost pressure that might take some of
the steam off the growth momentum.
The United States, where housing and financial
market stress originated, and its closely linked
developed country economic partners, such as Japan, the
European Union, and Canada, show the greatest impacts
of the economic crisis, with an economic slowdown in
2009 of -2.51%, -5.4%, -4.1%, and -2.5%, respectively.
The contagion effect in Mexico is even worse at -6.9%.
The Asian economies withstood the economic
crisis, posting positive growth in 2009 (for example,
China at 8.5% and India at 6.4%), and thus lead the
world economic recovery with their aggressive fiscal
and monetary policies in support of stimulus spending,
quick resumption of capital inflows, and industrial
growth momentum after inventory adjustments.
Improved macroeconomic frameworks, lower
debt exposure, and larger reserves enabled Latin
American and Caribbean countries to respond with
appropriate policy initiatives to support economic
activity and cushion the impact of the economic
slowdown. This region’s price inflation is still among
the highest, particularly in Argentina and Venezuela.
With both the housing and labor markets still
weak in the EU-15, recovery in the rest of the EU will
be sluggish. After depreciating in 2009, most currencies
of EU members experience real appreciation against
the U.S. dollar.
After a decade-long run of high and sustained
growth in the CIS, Russia and Ukraine post deep
slowdowns at -8.0% and -14.5%, respectively. The
rest of the CIS, especially the low-income, non-oilexporting countries, follow the path of these major
regional players. Strengthening of commodity prices
is a bright prospect for future growth. The ruble
in Russia and the hryvnia in Ukraine depreciated
significantly in 2009, but they strengthen in real terms
against the U.S. dollar thereafter. Projected price
inflation is much lower than in previous periods and
remains moderate.
Recent sound policy reforms help economies in
Africa respond to alleviate the impact of the economic
crisis, and stronger commodity prices give a positive
outlook for Africa’s economy in the next decade,
including GDP growth of 4.6%. Most currencies in the
region are stable relative to the U.S. dollar, and price
inflation is moderate.
Initiatives to diversify into the non-oil sector (for
example, real estate) by countries in the Middle East
became the channel of the contagion effects of the
economic slowdown. However, improving oil prices
give promising growth prospects in this region.
Agricultural and Trade Policy Assumptions
Bioenergy mandates continue to be key drivers
in the current outlook. Major energy policies included
in the baseline are the U.S. Energy Independence and
Security Act (EISA) of 2007, the Renewable Energy
Directive of the EU, fuel mandates and regulations
for Argentina and Brazil, and producer incentives
in Canada. In addition, new provisions in the Food,
Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008—the 2008
farm bill—are included in this baseline. Provisions
set to expire under both this farm bill and the EISA
are assumed to continue throughout the baseline.
Another policy change affecting trade in biofuels
is the imposition by the EU of anti-dumping and
countervailing duties on biodiesel (blends B20 and
above) of U.S. origin.
The 2009 world policy environment included
the continuing implementation of reforms in the CAP.
In particular, the sugar reforms of the EU Common
Market Organization were adopted in 2006. The
4 / Overview: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
reforms cover a transitional period from 2006/07
to 2009/10. One of the main goals of the reforms is
to reduce sugar quota production by 6 million tons,
white value, through voluntary quota reductions and
through lower intervention prices. So far, in-quota
sugar production has decreased by 5.8 million tons.
Although duty-free access to EU markets by least
developed countries began in October 2009 under
Everything-but-Arms, non-preferential countries
continue to face prohibitive import duties on sugar.
Beet production over the quota is expected to be
used in ethanol production. One of the goals of the
EU’s Renewable Energy Directive is a 20% share for
renewable energy in total energy consumption. This
includes a 10% minimum target for renewable energy
consumed in transport, part of which is to come from
biofuel use. To meet growing demand both within the
EU and on global markets, the European Commission
decided to increase the milk quota by 2% beginning
April 1, 2008. In rice, the EU intervention price
mechanism is abolished for 2009/10.
The international reference price for rice has
been Thai 100% B; however, the current Thai domestic
price insurance scheme and government storage policy
has limited Thailand’s role as a residual supplier on
the world market. Thai exports have increasingly
been government-to-government without price
transparency in the face of increased competition and
downward price pressure from Vietnam rice exports.
Consequently, the projected net trade clearing price
generated in the international rice model is used as
the world reference price in this baseline and is more
likely to reflect the Vietnam 5% price.
The outlook assumes recovery from the
SPS shocks and trade restrictions in meat markets
associated with BSE in North America, FMD in Latin
America, especially Argentina, AI in Europe and Asia,
and blue ear disease in China.
Under the Uruguay Round Agreement on
Agriculture, the commitment schedule of developed
countries for export subsidy limits, TRQ expansion,
import duty reduction, and domestic support reduction
are fixed at 2000 levels. Developing countries had
their last reform installment implemented in 2004. All
of these commitments are held fixed through 2019/20.
The 2010 outlook does not include any conjecture
on policy changes arising from the Doha Round. An
extended policy database is available on our Web site
and is updated once a year in the spring (www.fapri.
iastate.edu/tools/).
The Outlook for U.S. Agriculture
The global recession has had dramatic effects on
the U.S. farm sector. Net farm income declined by $30
billion in 2009, as commodity prices fell far below the
peak levels of 2008. A modest forecast recovery of the
general economy contributes to a modest projected
recovery in the farm economy in 2010.
Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy
Domestic and export demand for meat and dairy
products was severely affected by lower incomes
and higher unemployment rates in 2009. Meat
consumption and exports declined and prices for
livestock, poultry, and milk fell. The outlook for 2010
and beyond depends on the strength of the economic
recovery. If incomes increase and consumer confidence
returns, demand for meat and dairy products will
strengthen. Meanwhile, livestock producers have
scaled back production in response to the large losses
many experienced in 2008 and 2009. The combination
of stronger demand and limited supplies should result
in at least some price recovery in 2010.
In spite of declining cattle numbers and beef
production, cattle prices fell sharply in 2009 because
of very weak demand. Reduced beef production and
recovery in demand are expected to result in higher
cattle prices for the next several years. Eventually,
improved profitability encourages another modest
expansion of beef production, and cattle prices level
off.
Higher feed costs in 2008 and weak demand
in 2009 contributed to two straight years of large
economic losses to pork producers. The combination
of reduced production and recovery in demand should
result in higher hog prices in 2010 and 2011. As with
beef, a return to profitability results in renewed growth
in pork production in later years.
In the poultry sector, low returns resulted in a
sharp decline in broiler production in 2009, the first
decline in decades. This steep reduction in supplies
helped keep broiler prices from dropping as much as
cattle and hog prices, and positioned the sector for
Overview: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 5
resumed growth in 2010. One important concern for
the broiler sector is the recent suspension of imports
by Russia, a major U.S. export market.
Also of concern to the poultry sector in particular
and the meat sector in general are future levels of U.S.
meat consumption. After decades of growth, per capita
meat consumption began to level off after 2004 and
to decline after 2007. Projected meat consumption
expands slowly after 2012 but remains well below the
2004 peak.
Milk prices fell sharply from record levels in the
final months of 2008 and caused large losses for most
dairy producers in 2009. As with the meat sector, the
resulting reduction in supplies and the expectation of
stronger domestic and foreign demand are expected to
result in higher milk prices in 2010 and beyond.
Crops
Grain and oilseed prices have fallen sharply
from their mid-2008 peaks but generally remain above
levels that prevailed prior to 2007. Increased global
grain production, lower oil prices, reduced demand
for livestock feed, and slower growth in biofuel
production are some of the many factors that caused
prices to fall from record highs.
A large 2009 U.S. corn crop put downward
pressure on corn prices, in spite of continued increases
in the use of corn to make ethanol. Corn acreage is
projected to increase in 2010, as expected corn returns
appear favorable compared to returns for competing
crops. Direct feed use of corn is limited by current
weakness in the livestock sector and increased
consumption of feeds produced as a coproduct of
ethanol production. Projected U.S. corn exports
increase moderately over the baseline, capturing a
share of the growth in global feed demand.
Record U.S. soybean production in 2009 also
puts downward pressure on soybean prices, but the
weather-reduced Argentine crop harvested in early
2009 provided some support. The South American
crop harvested in early 2010 was expected to be much
larger, so demand from China and other countries will
have to be very strong to keep prices from falling. In
the longer term, growth in global livestock and poultry
production, biodiesel use, and Asian vegetable oil
consumption all support soybean prices.
The sharp increase in global wheat production
has contributed to a dramatic decline in wheat
prices from their 2008 peak. This, combined with
unfavorable weather conditions in the fall of 2009,
results in a sharp decline in 2010 U.S. wheat acreage.
U.S. wheat stocks have climbed to levels not
experienced in 20 years, so even the sharp projected
reduction in U.S. wheat production does not result in a
near-term recovery in wheat prices.
The world recession sharply reduced demand
for cotton, but reduced global production and signs of
economic recovery caused cotton prices to rebound
in the final months of 2009. Projected U.S. cotton
acreage expands in 2010 after three years of decline.
Consumer Food Prices and Other Aggregate
Indicators
Higher prices for farm commodities and energy
contributed to 5.5% food price inflation in 2008,
the highest rate since 1990. In 2009, the recession
resulted in lower farm commodity and energy prices,
and food price inflation fell to 1.8%. Projected food
price inflation averages about 3% per year between
2010 and 2012, in response to higher prices for meat,
dairy products, and petroleum. After 2012, food price
inflation averages about 2%, roughly the same as the
forecast rate of overall inflation in the U.S. economy.
The sharp decline in net farm income in 2009
occurred because reductions in farm commodity
prices far exceeded reductions in production expenses.
In 2010, higher livestock receipts cause a modest
recovery, but net farm income does not get back to the
2008 level over the course of the 10-year baseline.
Government farm program outlays by the
CCC remain moderate, as grain and oilseed prices
remain above levels that would trigger marketing
loan benefits and CCPs. Participation in the ACRE
program established by the 2008 farm bill has been
less than anticipated. For the last several years, crop
insurance program costs have been constrained, as
generally favorable weather has limited indemnities.
With crop prices, crop insurance premiums, and
premium subsidies all well above pre-2007 levels,
crop insurance outlays could increase sharply if less
favorable weather results in greater indemnities.
Projected outlays on the crop insurance program
approach total spending on other farm programs.
6 / Overview: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Alternative Baseline Projections
The figures reported in this publication are based
on a single set of assumptions about the weather, the
economy, and other factors that affect commodity
supply and demand. FAPRI also has developed a
stochastic baseline of U.S. agricultural and biofuel
markets that estimates market outcomes under a wider
range of assumptions. In essence, FAPRI develops
500 related baselines that share some assumptions,
such as a continuation of current government policies,
but that differ in their assumptions about crop yields,
production costs, petroleum prices, export demand
conditions, and other factors.
Results of the stochastic baseline analysis are
summarized in the U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
available at www.fapri.missouri.edu. That publication
provides average results from the 500 related
baselines. For most variables, those average results
from the stochastic analysis are very similar to the
estimates reported in this publication. There are
exceptions to this general rule, however. In the case of
farm program outlays and biofuel market outcomes,
averages from the stochastic analysis sometimes differ
from the figures presented here because of underlying
asymmetries in the policies analyzed.
The Outlook for World Agriculture
A deeper and more widespread economic
slowdown than originally anticipated depressed trade
and prices in 2009. However, projected recovery
in income growth, along with continuing world
population growth and expanding bioenergy mandates,
fuels recovery and sustains long-term strength in food,
feed, and fuel demand in the world.
Grains
With the exception of sorghum, world grain
prices are lower in 2009/10 because of the higher
supply in world markets. Wheat and barley prices
are projected to decrease further in 2010/11, with the
largest decline seen in the wheat price, followed by the
barley price. Corn and sorghum prices are projected
to increase in 2010/11. Grain prices increase steadily
over the next 10 years because of growing demand for
food, feed, and fuel purposes.
Total grain area increases 1.43% over the decade
and reaches 484.8 mha in 2019/20. Corn area increases
the most, especially in the U.S. and in Asian countries,
followed by sorghum area. Wheat area and barley area
are projected to decline slightly over the baseline period.
Total world grain consumption increases by
194.7 mmt over the decade, with most of the demand
increase occurring for corn. Population growth boosts
world wheat demand for food purposes by 60.0 mmt
over the projection period, with the demand increase
mainly coming from Asian, African, and Middle
Eastern countries. Corn feed use increases over the next
decade by 45.8 mmt because of growth in the livestock
sector. Food and industrial use of corn also grows, by
64.4 mmt, over the same period, with both population
growth and the expansion of the ethanol sector
contributing to this increase. Barley feed use declines,
whereas non-feed use increases, with total consumption
increasing by 4.8 mmt by 2019/20. Sorghum
consumption increases by 7.3 mmt over the projection
period, with gains in both feed and non-feed use.
World wheat net trade decreases in 2009/10
to 97.9 mmt because of larger crops in key wheat
importing countries. It increases to 103.1 mmt in
2010/11. Net trade grows 1.63% annually on average,
reaching 115 mmt in 2019/20. U.S. market share
decreases to 19.89% in 2009/10 and thereafter because
of strong competition from other exporting countries,
particularly Russia and Ukraine. It decreases to
18.2% in 2019/20. The EU decreases its market share
in 2009/10 because of lower production. Its market
share decreases further in 2010/11 with the decline in
exports. Argentina is projected to recover its market
share in 2010/11 with the upturn in production.
Canada’s market share decreases over the next 10
years. Australia’s market share increases in 2009/10
and remains fairly stable throughout the decade,
declining slightly toward the end.
Net imports of Asian countries decline by 2.3
mmt over the next 10 years with the increase in
production. African and Middle Eastern countries
increase their net imports by 10.0 mmt over the next 10
years. Latin American countries’ net imports reach only
9.7 mmt in 2019/20 because of production growth.
World coarse grain net trade is projected to grow
at an average annual rate of 1.5%. Corn net trade
increases the most, by 14.9 mmt, followed by barley
trade. Sorghum net trade declines. The U.S. market
Overview: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 7
share increases to 54.98% in 2009/10 and remains
relatively stable over the next 10 years The U.S. share
reaches 55.9% in 2019/20. Argentina’s market share
in the coarse grain market is projected to increase in
2010/11, and thereafter to decline slightly toward the
end of the period. Ukraine’s market share declines in
2009/10 with a decrease in production and net exports
of barley and corn. Brazil’s market share declines as
consumption grows faster than production. Australia’s
market share stays stable over the next 10 years.
World barley net trade reaches 18.8 mmt in
2019/20, fueled by growth in Asian demand. The EU
slightly increases its barley net exports in 2010/11
because of lower domestic consumption. Net exports
of barley reach only 2.1 mmt in 2019/20. Australian
net exports decrease in 2010/11 because of lower
production and end at 2.9 mmt in 2019/20. Canadian
net exports total 3.4 mmt in 2019/20. Ukrainian and
Russian net exports reach 6.1 mmt and 2.3 mmt,
respectively, by 2019/20.
In 2009/10, corn net trade increases since
consumption increases more than production but it
declines in 2010/11 corn net trade. Over the next 10
years, corn net trade is projected to increase, reaching
92.5 mmt in 2019/20, because of demand growth in
major importing regions such as Asia, Africa, and
the Middle East. The U.S. market share increases in
2009/10 to 66.8% with higher U.S. exports. It reaches
66.9% in 2019/20. Growth in area and yields raises
Argentina’s share of the corn market to 16.5% by
2019/20. Brazil’s market share decreases to 4.4% by
2019/20 as domestic consumption growth exceeds
production growth. South Africa’s market share
reaches 4.1% in 2019/20.
Rice
The largest demand increase for corn comes from
Asian countries because of growth in their livestock
industry. Asian net imports increase by 7.3 mmt
over the next decade. African net imports increase
by 2.0 mmt over the projection period. Among Latin
American countries, Mexico maintains its role as a
major importer. Middle Eastern corn net imports reach
10.2 mmt in 2019/20.
U.S. DDG exports increase more than 33%
over the next 10 years, reaching 7.8 mmt in 2019/20.
Canada and Mexico are the major destinations for
these exports. Mexican DDG imports reach 2.1 mmt in
2019/20, and Canadian imports reach 1.2 mmt. Asian
imports of DDG are also growing, as a replacement
for corn. Destinations include Indonesia, Japan, the
Philippines, South Korea, and Taiwan.
World sorghum net trade grows slightly over the
projection period, reaching 5.0 mmt by 2019/20 with
growth in demand. Mexico’s net imports of sorghum
reach 2.2 mmt and Japan’s net imports reach 1.7 mmt in
2019/20. The U.S. market share of sorghum increases
in 2010/11 to 72.9% and reaches 65.3% in 2019/20.
International rice prices weaken in 2009/10 as
more exportable supplies became available, even
as major rice exporting countries like India, Egypt,
Pakistan, China, and Thailand maintain export
restrictions and stock controls. Discounted by as much
as $150 per mt below the Thai price, Vietnam rice was
very competitive in the global market. Rice export
prices are projected to further weaken in the next two
years before increasing gradually over the baseline,
driven by resource constraints on land and water and
increased consumption and trade. Nevertheless, rice
remains thinly traded, with the share of total trade to
total consumption at 8.6% in 2019/20. Populationdriven consumption growth keeps the rice stocks-touse ratio between 19% and 21% over the same period.
World rice harvested area in 2009/10 declined by
2.5% as India experienced unfavorable weather, which
caused a substantial drop of 5.2 mha in the country’s
area, negating some gains in China, Myanmar,
Thailand, and Nigeria. Consequently, global rice
production declined by 2.7%, to 434.7 mmt, as average
yield declined marginally.
Total world rice consumption in 2009/10
increases 0.7%, to 436.5 mmt, as world population
grows 1.1% and average per capita use declines 0.4%.
Substantial consumption gains in China, Bangladesh,
and Indonesia are offset by declines in India and
Pakistan. Total world rice trade increases 8.2% and
net trade gains 11.7% in 2009/10, as shipments from
Thailand, Pakistan, and China increase substantially.
Total consumption continues to increase
steadily, by 0.8% annually, with the expansion driven
solely by population growth, as average per capita
use declines marginally as a result of urbanization
and diet diversification toward more protein-based
8 / Overview: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
foods in a number of Asian countries with relatively
strong economies. Projected area expansions in
India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Thailand offset the
contractions in China, Japan, and South Korea.
India remains a major player in global rice
over the next decade, accounting for 28%, 38%,
and 29% of the net increases in area, production,
and consumption, respectively. Nearly 45% of the
total gain in production comes from Bangladesh,
Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Brazil, Myanmar,
Cambodia, and Vietnam while 52% of the growth in
consumption is accounted for by Bangladesh, the EU,
Indonesia, the Philippines, Nigeria, and Myanmar.
India, Thailand, Pakistan, and Vietnam account
for 81.2% of the volume growth in net rice exports
over the next decade. Rice imports of Africa and
the Middle East continue to increase substantially,
accounting for 50.4% of the total volume growth in
world net rice imports, driven by strong growth in both
population and per capita rice consumption.
Oilseeds
World oilseed production rebounded in 2009/10,
with record soybean crops for the world’s three top
producers, namely, the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina.
Oilseed prices remain relatively stable, however, as the
sharp supply expansion is met with increasing demand
because of the economic recovery. Led by a strong
growth in vegetable oil demand for food and industrial
uses, prices resume their ascendant path and grow for
the remainder of the projection period. Robust demand
growth maintains oilseed prices above historical levels
for the outlook period, despite area expansions and
yield improvements.
The significant area expansion in Argentina
and Brazil led the increase in world oilseed area
in 2009/10, offsetting a small decline by China.
Relatively stable prices lead to a slowdown in area
growth by next season, with the pace recovering
later as prices start increasing again. While soybean
area experiences the largest growth in absolute terms
(around 9 mha), palm area expands faster in relative
terms (22% versus 9% for soybeans). Most of the
soybean area expansion is expected to occur in South
America; in particular, Brazil has the most, followed
by Argentina. The area expansions of rapeseed and
sunflower are similar to that of palm. Canada, the EU,
India, and Other CIS countries are responsible for
most of the growth in rapeseed area.
Urbanization and falling real domestic prices
result in stagnant to declining oilseed area in China.
Thus, the oilseed production increase is limited to
that stemming from yield improvements. On the
other hand, strong and sustained economic growth
and an expanding livestock sector results in a robust
increase in the domestic consumption of meal and oil.
Combined with policies favoring oilseed imports and
domestic crush, the demand increase makes China
the world’s leading soybean importer. In contrast, and
continuing a long-term trend, the European Union
continues its displacement of soybean imports with
that of soybean products, reducing its market share in
soybean trade. Reasons behind the shift are weakening
crush margins as well as wider availability of rapeseed
meal as a result of the domestic biodiesel mandates.
Brazil increases its net export share of soybeans
throughout the outlook period and surpasses the U.S.
to become the leading net exporter by 2015/16. The
biodiesel mandates in the European Union encourage
world production and trade of rapeseed. Canada
remains the leading net exporter, while Ukraine
consolidates its position as an emerging net exporter.
The economic recovery and associated growth
of the livestock sector encourages oilseed meal
consumption over the projection period. While
soybean meal accounts for most (75%) of the
consumption growth, the largest growth in percentage
terms is expected for palm kernel meal. Consumption
of sunflower meal and especially rapeseed meal are
also expected to expand firmly. However, the robust
demand growth for oilseed meals is outpaced by
the supply expansion resulting from the vegetableoil-driven crush, and prices remain stable (to
slightly increasing) throughout the outlook. China,
the country with (by far) the largest meal demand
growth, surpasses the EU as the leading protein meal
consumer by the middle of the outlook. However, the
EU maintains its position as the largest net importer
of protein meal. Meanwhile, the U.S.’s share of world
consumption falls slightly. Led by Argentina, net
trade in the soybean meal market increases strongly
throughout the baseline.
Vegetable oils drive the oilseeds sector. Both
Overview: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 9
emerging biodiesel industries in various countries and
growth in food uses result in a vigorous expansion in
world consumption over the next decade. Population
and increasing income in developing countries are
mostly responsible for the food demand expansion.
Policy interventions, such as domestic consumption
mandates and a relatively high crude oil price, explain
most of the growth in demand for industrial use (in
particular, biodiesel demand). Net imports of soybean
oil increase over the next decade, led by India and
the EU. For the EU, the increase reflects the trend
toward importing soybean products in lieu of the seed.
Meanwhile, China’s crush demand growth results in
relatively stable levels of net imports of soybean oil
over the outlook period. Despite the domestic biodiesel
mandate, Argentina still dominates the world soybean
oil exports. Rapeseed oil consumption reaches 26 mmt
during the baseline because of biodiesel production in
the EU. Palm oil remains the most traded vegetable oil
in the world for the next decade. Chinese palm oil net
imports expand strongly, explaining about a third of
the increase in trade.
Cotton
As world macroeconomic conditions improve,
world demand for cotton expands in 2009/10 after
the large contraction in world mill use the previous
year. Strong demand for competing crops to be used
in the production of biofuels has provided significant
competition for area and has held down supplies in
world cotton markets.
Cotton acreage in the United States is expected to
jump to 3.7 mha in 2010/11 from 3.1 mha the previous
year but remains well below the area seen prior to
2008/09. Higher prices for grains and oilseeds, due
to biofuels production, have held down cotton area
in many locations and continue to provide acreage
competition over the projection period. Even as world
demand improves, U.S. cotton acreage is projected
to remain below 3.8 mha. Cuts in domestic mill use
over the last several years have allowed the U.S. to
maintain much of its export volume. With stable to
modestly growing area and continued contraction in
domestic mill use, the United States is projected to
maintain and even modestly grow its trade volume.
Prices, as measured by the Cotlook Far East A
Index, are expected to jump to $1,633 per mt in 2009/10
as demand grows and supplies remain tight. Prices grow
in the following years, as supply constraints, through
competition for acreage from grains and oilseeds,
contribute to an improved outlook for prices. Regions
with fewer alternative crops or a comparative advantage
in cotton production are likely to hold on to more of
their cotton acreage to take advantage of improving
prices. The improved price picture is necessary to
maintain net returns to cotton, which ensures the
production needed to meet cotton demand. This cotton
demand may be considered more modest, near-term
growth than anticipated prior to the recent economic
upheaval. World cotton consumption is expected to
rise to 24.9 mmt in 2009/10 under improving world
macroeconomic conditions and returns to growth under
the assumption of a return to GDP growth beyond
2009/10. Growth in mill use is just above population
growth, reaching 30.0 mmt by 2019/20.
World cotton spinning continues to concentrate
in a small number of countries. China, India, Pakistan,
and Turkey account for 72% of world mill use in
2009/10 and expand to 76% of world mill use by
2019/20. While mill use in China continues to grow at
a strong pace, use in other parts of developing Asia are
anticipated to expand. Developed countries are likely
to see continued declines in their consumption of raw
cotton. The United States must increasingly rely on
export markets for the majority of demand.
Sugar
The world sugar market faces a second year of
deficit in 2009/10 because of production shortfalls,
particularly in India. Brazil continues to produce
record levels of sugarcane in 2009/10, but, at 55%,
the share of sugarcane going to ethanol production
declines from the previous year because of higher
sugar prices. Despite the deliberate production
decline over the CMO sugar restructuring period, the
EU experiences higher sugar production in 2009/10
because of record yields. As a result, net imports
decline more than 5% from 2008/09. World sugar
production is projected to increase 24% as both
harvested area and yields increase, especially in the
major sugarcane-producing countries.
Sugar consumption continues to increase, and
with sustained growth in real GDP and population,
particularly in developing countries, sugar
10 / Overview: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
consumption increases almost 22% over the projection
period. As India’s dramatic increase in imports of
sugar is met by increased sugar exports from Brazil,
world net trade increases 11% in 2009/10. By 2018/19,
world net trade is projected to increase 13%.
Unlike in 2008/09, when the increase in global
sugar prices was aided by macroeconomic variables
such as depreciation of the U.S. dollar and high energy
prices, the world sugar price reaches record highs in
2009/10 because of market fundamentals. The over
60% rise in sugar prices is the result of tighter sugar
supplies brought about by higher demand for sugar
from countries with reduced production. As production
recovers, the world sugar price declines 26% in 2011/12
but remains relatively high over the projection period
because of increased demand for sugar from countries
such as China, the EU, Indonesia, and Pakistan.
In terms of market shares, only a handful of sugarexporting countries account for 95% of world trade,
with Brazil, which accounts for almost 65%, continuing
to maintain the largest share throughout the projection
period. On the import side, Russia currently accounts
for 5.6% of world net trade. However, this share
declines to 4% by 2019/20 as Russia’s sugar production
continues to expand. Asia, as a region, constitutes the
largest importing block, with China, Indonesia, Japan,
Malaysia, and South Korea together accounting for
about 19% of world trade over the projection period.
Biodiesel is another renewable energy source
adopted in a growing number of countries. The world
price of biodiesel (Central Europe FOB) increases in
2010 driven by higher petroleum and vegetable oil
prices. Lower exportable surpluses from Argentina as
their B5 mandate is implemented and tariff barriers
imposed by the EU on biodiesel originating from
the U.S. also contribute to the price recovery in
2010. Significant domestic consumption mandates in
Argentina, Brazil, the EU, and the U.S., combined
with increasing crude oil prices, result in biodiesel
price increases through the remainder of the period.
Pushed by the biofuels target, biodiesel consumption
in the EU continues to grow over the next decade.
Despite being the world’s largest producer, the EU
is by far the largest net importer of biodiesel. With
a highly competitive oilseed crushing sector, and
policies favoring the exports of processed products,
Argentina is the largest net exporter of biodiesel.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s biodiesel production increase is
motivated by domestic mandates.
Livestock and Poultry
Ethanol and Biodiesel
Driven by income growth, per capita meat
consumption increases by 6.1 kg in the next
decade, representing a 1.3% annual increase. Meat
consumption reaches 54.5 kg per person per year by
2019. Pork consumption has the highest share in the
consumption basket, growing the fastest among the
three meats at 1.6% annually.
Many countries continue to promote ethanol
use through mandates and/or directives. In the world
ethanol market, the major players remain Brazil and the
United States. The United States is the largest producer
of ethanol, followed by Brazil. Brazil, however, is
the largest exporter. The EU is also emerging as a
significant player, along with China and India.
While SPS issues and food safety concerns
continue to impact the world meat market, recovery in
meat demand increases world meat trade 22.5% (3.76
mmt) in the next decade, with net trade reaching 20.47
mmt in 2019. Rising meat demand fuels a 16.8% (36.43
mmt) increase in world meat production over the next
decade, with production reaching 253.68 mmt in 2019.
The world ethanol price increased in 2008 as
crude oil prices peaked and U.S. net imports increased.
However, 2009 saw lower ethanol prices as crude oil
prices fell 37% and U.S. net imports fell almost 60%.
The price increases 9% over the projection period,
as world demand for ethanol grows, especially in the
United States as a result of the renewable fuel mandates.
Recovery in the global economic situation pushes
livestock and poultry prices relatively higher over
the projection period. After an 8% drop in 2009, the
beef price increases and peaks at $176.5/cwt in 2014.
Despite the slight decline thereafter, it remains above
$175/cwt in 2019. From a peak in 2004 of $52.5/cwt,
the pork price cycles throughout the decade. The pork
price peaks again in 2012 at $55.9/cwt and ends at
$53.9/cwt in 2019. The poultry price strengthens over
the next decade, growing 1.8% annually and reaching
Brazilian production of ethanol increases steadily
over the projection period, inducing a rising share of
sugarcane going into ethanol production.
Overview: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 11
a record high of $91.5/cwt in 2019.
In the outlook for trade, world beef trade
recovers and is projected to continue to grow at an
average rate of 3.1% annually throughout the decade,
ending at 6.7 mmt in 2019. Responding to the recovery
in trade and the growth of the world price, beef
production increases at an annual rate of 1.1% (0.56
mmt) in the next decade, reaching 58.9 mmt in 2019.
In pork, after recovering from a 12% drop in 2009,
pork trade grows 2.8% (122 tmt) annually in the next
decade, reaching 5.52 mmt in 2019. Pork production
increases in the next decade at an annual rate of 1.9%
(1.85 mmt), reaching 115.47 mmt in 2019. In poultry,
a lower TRQ in Russia reduces broiler trade in the
short run, but trade recovers and grows at a rate of
1.3% annually over the projection period. Total broiler
trade increases by 0.97 mmt, reaching 8.29 mmt in
2019. Total broiler production increases 1.8% (1.2
mmt) annually, reaching 79.36 mmt in 2019.
Dairy
Strong demand and growing incomes boost world
milk production. Over the next decade, world milk
production increases 23.7%. Of the 123 mmt increase in
milk production, 61.8% occurs in Asia, mostly in China
and India. Higher milk production facilitates increases
in dairy production. World total butter production
increases 32.5% over the baseline, with India accounting
for 90% of the growth. Total cheese production grows
18.8%, with the U.S. and the EU accounting for about
51.9%. NFD production rises 17.5%, with the greatest
gains occurring in India. Excluding the EU, WMP
production grows in most countries, increasing a total of
32.3%. Dairy product trade expands substantially in the
long run as domestic production cannot meet domestic
demand in many countries.
As major players in world markets, Australia and
New Zealand steadily expand their dairy production
over the baseline. Australian milk production increases
25.7%, enabling Australian butter, cheese, NFD,
and WMP production and exports to increase. New
Zealand milk production increases 25.9%, making the
country the largest exporter over the projection period.
Because of an increase in milk quotas, EU
milk production increases slightly over the baseline.
Because of higher returns from cheese, more milk is
diverted into cheese production, while butter and milk
powder production decrease. The steady growth in
domestic cheese consumption absorbs the bulk of the
increase in cheese production, limiting the growth in
cheese exports throughout the baseline.
Driven by strong world demand and prices, the
Argentine and Brazilian dairy sectors expand over
the baseline. Growth in milk production facilitates
production increases in dairy products. Consequently,
with more exportable surpluses of dairy products,
Argentina and Brazil become more important
exporters in the world markets.
Because of economic growth, population growth,
and changing diets, Asian dairy consumption expands
steadily. To meet strong domestic demand for dairy
products, China and India significantly increase milk
production. The expansion of milk production not only
facilitates the growth of fluid milk consumption but also
helps boost the production of dairy products. Chinese
WMP net exports are negatively affected by the milk
scandal for the next couple of years, but China resumes
exporting in 2012. Over the long run, as domestic WMP
production expands and as consumers substitute more
fluid milk for reconstituted milk powder, Chinese WMP
exports increase steadily. Indian butter production
increases 5% annually. Butter exports reach a record at
the midterm of the baseline and then decrease as more
production is absorbed by domestic markets. As a byproduct, India’s NFD production grows 62.1%, creating
excess supplies that allow NFD exports to rise.
Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,
Thailand, and Vietnam) heavily depends on imports
to meet domestic demand. Its NFD imports account
for 40% of total world trade. China and Japan together
account for about 12% of the NFD import market by
the end of the baseline. While China switches from
a WMP importer to a WMP exporter, Southeast Asia
increases its imports 3.3% annually. Steady growth
also occurs in Asian cheese and butter imports. Japan,
a leading cheese importer, increases its cheese imports,
accounting for roughly 15% of total world imports
by 2019. Sustained by economic and population
growth, cheese imports of other Asian countries
(China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea,
Thailand, and Vietnam) increase by 4.5% annually.
Total butter imports into China, Japan, South Korea,
and Southeast Asia steadily increase over the baseline.
12 / Overview: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Box 1. Major Model Developments in the FAPRI System
With a forward-looking motivation of positioning FAPRI’s analytical capability to address emerging
policy issues such as biofuels, indirect land use, and
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, model development
initiatives were initiated on several fronts. In the U.S.
model, significant improvements were made in the way
that biofuel use mandates and cellulosic ethanol production are modeled. Because of Brazil’s major market
presence in almost all important traded commodities, a
spatially disaggregated model of Brazil was integrated
into the FAPRI system to fully reflect differential resource supply and infrastructure constraints across the
country. Moreover, yield specification now includes intensification and extensification effects in all countries.
Finally, a GHG accounting model can now be linked to
the FAPRI system to evaluate GHG emission impacts
of alternative policy scenarios of interest.
U.S. biofuel modeling
The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) set up by
the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA)
establishes a set of nested mandates for biofuel use. To
enforce the mandates, a system was established that
allows firms to trade Renewable Identification Numbers
(RINs). These RINs certify that appropriate levels of
renewable fuels have been utilized by regulated parties.
We have significantly improved our representation of the market for RINs in the model, adding
and revising equations to reflect many of the critical
features of the regulations and the developing markets.
For example, we now have equations to estimate the
quantity of RINs carried over from one year to the next,
which can have important implications for how the
market behaves when there are unexpected shocks to
energy prices, corn yields, or any of the other factors
that affect biofuel supply and demand.
In previous years, U.S. production of cellulosic
biofuels was represented in a very simplistic manner
that did not account for the supply and demand for
feedstocks. The model now includes detailed models for
switchgrass and corn stover supply and demand. Supply
of both feedstocks depends on net returns to producers;
costs of getting the feedstocks from farms to plants are
accounted for; and plants only produce cellulosic biofuels if it is profitable for them to do so. EISA provisions
are modeled carefully, recognizing that the law allows
cellulosic biofuel mandates to be adjusted if supply capacity is inadequate to meet the targeted levels, but that
such adjustments require other steps to be taken that
affect the producer price of cellulosic biofuels.
Because markets do not currently exist and because the technology has yet to be proven commercially, the projections generated are far more tentative than
most other model estimates. Nevertheless, the model
provides a tool to look at some of the critical issues in a
systematic fashion.
Brazil module
Brazilian agricultural production has experienced
an impressive expansion in recent years. Because of
its size and geographical location, Brazil encompasses
widely varying ecosystems, ranging from grassland and
crops associated with temperate climates in the South
to tropical forests in the North and semiarid areas in the
Northeast. The different regions also present enormous
developmental disparities in terms of infrastructure,
logistics, and strategies available to increase production. Thus, while rapid expansion of production of
some commodities may only be achieved by taking
area away from other agricultural activities in land-constrained regions, increases in area used by all activities
may be observed in other parts of the country, which
points to distinct dynamics in the competition for land
across space. Environmental impacts (both local and
global through the emission of GHGs) as well as social
and economic impacts hinge critically on the nature of
these land-use changes. Therefore, it is becoming increasingly important to recognize the spatial dimension
of the agricultural expansion, as the impacts are likely
to be dependent on the way in which this expansion occurs as well as on the resources of the location in which
production takes place.
In response to the identified need, a more detailed
module of Brazilian agriculture was jointly developed
by FAPRI and ICONE1 and incorporated into the
1
ICONE is the Institute for International Trade Negotiations
(http://www.iconebrasil.org.br/en). Contributors from ICONE are
Leila Harfuch (livestock and dairy), Marcelo Moreira (sugarcane
complex), and Luciane Chiodi (crops). Andre Nassar, ICONE’s
general director, coordinated the effort at the institute while Miguel
Carriquiry led the model development at FAPRI.
Overview: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 13
FAPRI modeling system. The new module is basically
a spatially disaggregated partial equilibrium model of
Brazilian agricultural production constructed at the
regional level, incorporating major crops, biofuels, and
livestock interacting and competing for agricultural
resources, in particular, land. Outputs from the model
include projections of production and utilization variables and the amount of land allocated to the activities
considered. On the crops side, we consider corn (first
and second crops), the soybeans complex (including
soybean meal, soybean oil, and biodiesel), the sugarcane complex (including sugar and ethanol), rice, cotton, and dry beans (multiple cropping depending on the
region). The modeled animal products are beef, pork,
poultry, and dairy. In terms of land allocation, the area
used by a given activity depends on its expected real
returns in comparison to expected returns of activities
that compete for the resource. The strategy for modeling livestock activities follows closely the one utilized
in the international livestock model of FAPRI, with the
additional layer of explicitly modeling land used by
beef and dairy production. Because not all the regions
considered are equally suited for different activities,
the competition for land is contingent on the location.
Consequently, not all activities compete with each other
with the same intensity in all regions.
Through the use of spatially disaggregated information on historical production activities and natural
resource availability, the model is able to determine the
relative profitability of different activities at the local
level, which as mentioned will drive regional supply
curves for relevant commodities and their associated
land use. For this modeling effort, Brazil is divided into
six regions: South, Southeast, Central-West Cerrados,
North-Northeast Cerrados, Amazon Biome, and Northeast Coast. The model is able to capture the regional
differences in terms of capabilities and consequences of
the expansion. Thus, the impacts of land-use changes
derived from increasing demand for agricultural products can be more precisely established.
Yield intensification and extensification
The yield equation was respecified to include
intensification effects—that is, a price-induced yield
response—as well as extensification effects that allow
a yield drag when new land is put into production.
Because of very limited data, most of the parameters
were derived using information from yield gaps and
availability of arable land to calibrate country-specific
parameters.
Greenhouse gas accounting
Recently, a significant effort was made to develop
a carbon accounting model that links with the FAPRI
model. This model is called the Greenhouse Gases
from Agriculture Simulation Model (GreenAgSiM),
and it aims to quantify emissions from agricultural
activity on a global scale. The need for information in
a carbon-constrained world led to the idea to incorporate the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories into the FAPRI modeling framework in order to
evaluate the impact of changes in agricultural policy on
GHG emissions.
The model takes emissions into account that are
directly attributable to agricultural production, such
as enteric fermentation (methane), manure management (methane and nitrous oxide), and agricultural soil
management (nitrous oxide). Furthermore, carbon stock
differences from land-use change (carbon dioxide)
induced by agriculture are included in the model.
CHARTS AND PRICE
PROJECTIONS
16 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Average Annual GDP Growth, 2009-2019
Percent Change
13
8.41
8
7.15
3.75
3.51
4
3.35
2.89
2.30
2.28
1.39
0.85
0
Canada
China
EU
India
Japan
Latin
America
Mexico
Middle
East
South
Korea
U.S.
Average Annual Exchange Rate Growth, 2009-2019
(local currency per U.S. dollar)
Percent Change
8
6.45
3.25
4
2.49
1.38
0.35
0.70
0.57
0.62
India
Canada
0
-0.46
-1.32
-2.39
-4
-8
Argentina
Brazil
EU-15
* Hungary, Czech Republic, and Poland.
Japan
China
Australia
New
Thailand
Zealand
Mexico
Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 17
U.S. Biofuel Use Mandates
Billion Gallons
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Maximum Allowable from Conventional
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Advanced
U.S. Conservation Reserve Program Area
Million Acres
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
18 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Crop Planted Area
Million Acres
100
90
80
70
60
50
99/00
01/02
03/04
05/06
07/08
Wheat
09/10
Corn
11/12
13/14
15/16
17/18
19/20
15/16
17/18
19/20
Soybeans
U.S. Crop Exports
Billion Bushels
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
99/00
01/02
03/04
05/06
07/08
Wheat
09/10
Corn
11/12
Soybeans
13/14
Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 19
U.S. Crop Prices
Dollars per Bushel
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
99/00
01/02
03/04
05/06
07/08
09/10
Wheat
Corn
11/12
13/14
15/16
17/18
15/16
17/18
19/20
Soybeans
U.S. Feed and Residual Disappearance
Million Metric Tons
250
200
150
100
50
0
99/00
01/02
03/04
Corn
05/06
07/08
Corn By-Products
09/10
11/12
Other Grains
13/14
Oilseed Meals
19/20
20 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Biofuel Production
Billion Gallons
20
16
12
8
4
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Corn-based Ethanol
Other Ethanol
Biodiesel
U.S. Farm-Level Prices Paid Indices
Index, 1990-1992=100
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Fertilizer
2011
Fuel
2013
2015
2017
2019
Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 21
U.S. Cattle and Barrow and Gilt Prices
Dollars per cwt
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Barrows and Gilts, Nat'l Base*
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2017
2019
NB Direct Fed Steers
* National Base 51% - 52% Lean Equivalent
U.S. Poultry Wholesale Prices
Cents per Pound
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
12-City Broiler
2009
2011
2013
Eastern Region Turkey
2015
22 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Livestock Production
Billion Pounds
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Beef
2009
2011
Pork
2013
2015
2017
2019
2015
2017
2019
Broilers
U.S. Meat Net Exports
Billion Pounds
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Beef
2009
Pork
2011
Broilers
2013
Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 23
U.S. Milk Production
Billion Pounds
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2013
2015
2017
2019
U.S. Milk Prices
Dollars per cwt
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
1999
2001
2003
2005
Class III
2007
2009
Class IV
2011
All Milk
24 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Land Use
Million Acres
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
13 Crop Planted Area
2009
2011
13 Crops + Hay
2013
2015
2017
2019
13 Crops + Hay + CRP
Mandatory U.S. Government Outlays, Fiscal Year
Billion Dollars
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
99/00
01/02
03/04
05/06
Net CCC Outlays
07/08
09/10
11/12
NRCS Conservation
13/14
15/16
Crop Insurance
17/18
19/20
Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 25
U.S. Farm Income
Billion Dollars
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Net Farm
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2015
2017
2019
Real NFI (1997$)
U.S. Consumer Price Index for Food
Percent *
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1999
2001
2003
2005
* Percentage increase in CPI for food vs. previous year.
2007
2009
2011
2013
26 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Wheat Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price
Dollars per Metric Ton
Percent
400
40
300
30
200
20
100
10
0
0
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
2007/08
2009/10
U.S. FOB Gulf Price
2011/12
2013/14
2015/16
2017/18
2019/20
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
World Wheat Net Trade and U.S. Market Share
Percent
Million Metric Tons
40
150
30
100
20
50
10
0
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
2007/08
Net Trade
2009/10
2011/12
2013/14
U.S. Market Share
2015/16
2017/18
2019/20
Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 27
World Rice Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price
Dollars per Metric Ton
Percent
700
40
600
35
30
500
25
400
20
300
15
200
10
100
5
0
0
1999/00
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
2007/08
2009/10
World Reference Price
2011/12
2013/14
2015/16
2017/18
2015/16
2017/18
2019/20
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
World Rice Net Exports
Million Metric Tons
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1999/00
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
2007/08
India
Pakistan
2009/10
Thailand
2011/12
U.S.
2013/14
Vietnam
2019/20
28 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
Million Metric Tons
Million Metric Tons
140
1,200
120
1,000
100
800
80
600
60
400
40
200
20
0
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
2007/08
2009/10
Production
2011/12
Consumption
2013/14
2015/16
2017/18
2019/20
Net Trade
World Corn Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price
Dollars per Metric Ton
Percent
30
250
25
200
20
150
15
100
10
50
5
0
0
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
2007/08
2009/10
U.S. FOB Gulf Price
2011/12
2013/14
2015/16
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
2017/18
2019/20
Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 29
World Corn Net Trade and U.S. Market Share
Percent
Million Metric Tons
140
80
120
60
100
80
40
60
40
20
20
0
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
2007/08
2009/10
Net Trade
2011/12
2013/14
2015/16
2017/18
2019/20
U.S. Market Share
World Barley and Sorghum Net Trade and Prices
U.S. Dollar per Metric Ton
Million Metric Tons
250
30
25
200
20
150
15
100
10
50
5
0
2001/02
2003/04
Barley Net Trade
2005/06
2007/08
Sorghum Net Trade
2009/10
2011/12
2013/14
2015/16
Barley Price, Canada Feed FOB
2017/18
2019/20
Sorghum Price, FOB Gulf
30 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Soybean Area Harvested and Price
Million Hectares
Dollars per Metric Ton
120
600
100
500
80
400
60
300
40
200
20
100
0
0
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
Argentina
2007/08
Brazil
2009/10
China
2011/12
U.S.
2013/14
Other
2015/16
2017/18
2019/20
Soybean Price, Rotterdam
World Soybean Net Trade
Million Metric Tons
120
80
40
0
-40
-80
-120
2001/02
U.S.
2003/04
Argentina
2005/06
Brazil
2007/08
2009/10
Paraguay
2011/12
Other Exports
2013/14
EU
2015/16
2017/18
2019/20
China
Other Imports
Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 31
World Soybean Crush
Million Metric Tons
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2001/02
2003/04
Argentina
2005/06
2007/08
Brazil
China
2009/10
EU
2011/12
2013/14
2015/16
India
Japan
U.S.
2011/12
2013/14
2017/18
2019/20
Other
World Soybean Meal Net Trade
Million Metric Tons
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
2001/02
2003/04
U.S.
2005/06
Argentina
2007/08
Brazil
2009/10
Other Exports
EU
Japan
2015/16
Mexico
2017/18
Other Imports
2019/20
32 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Soybean Oil Net Trade
Million Metric Tons
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
2001/02
2003/04
Argentina
2005/06
2007/08
Brazil
U.S.
2009/10
2011/12
Other Exports
2013/14
China
2015/16
India
2017/18
2019/20
Other Imports
Soybean Oil Per Capita Consumption in Selected Countries
Kilograms per Person
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2001/02
2003/04
China
2005/06
2007/08
India
2009/10
Japan
2011/12
U.S.
2013/14
EU
2015/16
Taiwan
2017/18
Brazil
2019/20
Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 33
World Rapeseed Area Harvested and Price
Million Hectares
Dollars per Metric Ton
40
700
35
600
30
500
25
400
20
300
15
200
10
100
5
0
2001/02
2003/04
Australia
2005/06
2007/08
Canada
China
2009/10
EU
2011/12
2013/14
India
2015/16
Other
2017/18
2019/20
Rapeseed Price, Hamburg
World Rapeseed Net Trade
Million Metric Tons
16
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
-12
-16
2001/02
2003/04
Canada
2005/06
Other CIS
2007/08
Ukraine
2009/10
2011/12
Other Exports
China
2013/14
EU
2015/16
Japan
2017/18
Other Imports
2019/20
34 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Rapeseed Meal Net Trade
Million Metric Tons
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
2001/02
2003/04
Canada
2005/06
2007/08
Ukraine
India
2009/10
2011/12
Other Exports
2013/14
China
2015/16
U.S.
2017/18
2019/20
Other Imports
World Rapeseed Oil Net Trade
Million Metric Tons
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
2007/08
Australia
Canada
Ukraine
2009/10
2011/12
Other Exports
China
2013/14
EU
2015/16
U.S.
2017/18
Other Imports
2019/20
Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 35
World Sunflower Area Harvested and Price
Million Hectares
Dollars per Metric Ton
30
800
700
25
600
20
500
400
15
300
10
200
5
100
0
0
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
2007/08
2009/10
2011/12
Argentina
EU
Ukraine
Sunflower Price, CIF Lower Rhine
2013/14
2015/16
2017/18
2019/20
China
Other CIS
Other
World Sunflower Net Trade
Million Metric Tons
2
1
0
-1
-2
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
Argentina
2007/08
Other CIS
2009/10
Ukraine
2011/12
2013/14
Other Exports
EU
2015/16
2017/18
Other Imports
2019/20
36 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Sunflower Meal Net Trade
Million Metric Tons
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
Argentina
2007/08
Other CIS
2009/10
Ukraine
2011/12
2013/14
Other Exports
2015/16
EU
2017/18
2019/20
Other Imports
World Sunflower Oil Net Trade
Million Metric Tons
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
2001/02
2003/04
Argentina
2005/06
Other CIS
2007/08
2009/10
Ukraine
2011/12
Other Exports
2013/14
China
2015/16
EU
2017/18
Other Imports
2019/20
Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 37
World Palm Oil Net Trade and Price
Million Metric Tons
Dollars per Metric Ton
60
1,200
40
1,000
20
800
0
600
-20
400
-40
200
-60
0
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
2007/08
Indonesia
China
Other Imports
2009/10
2011/12
2013/14
Malaysia
EU
Palm Oil Price, CIF Rotterdam
2015/16
2017/18
2019/20
Other Exports
India
World Peanut Area Harvested and Price
Dollars per Metric Ton
Million Hectares
30
2,000
25
1,600
20
1,200
15
800
10
400
5
0
0
2001/02
2003/04
Argentina
2005/06
China
2007/08
India
2009/10
U.S.
2011/12
Other
2013/14
2015/16
2017/18
2019/20
Peanut Price, U.S. Runners 40/50, CIF Rotterdam
38 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Cotton Consumption
Million Metric Tons
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1999/00
2001/02
2003/04
Asia
2005/06
CIS
2007/08
2009/10
Latin America
2011/12
N. America
2013/14
Africa
2015/16
2017/18
2019/20
ROW
World Cotton Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price
Dollars per Pound
Percent
1.00
100
0.80
80
0.60
60
0.40
40
0.20
20
0.00
0
1999/00
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
2007/08
2009/10
A-Index Far East
2011/12
2013/14
Stocks-to-Use
2015/16
2017/18
2019/20
Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 39
Major Sugar Net Exporters and World Raw Sugar Price
Million Metric Tons
Dollars per Metric Ton
50
640
560
40
480
400
30
320
20
240
160
10
80
0
0
1999/00
2001/02
Australia
2003/04
2005/06
Brazil
2007/08
Colombia
2009/10
2011/12
2013/14
Guatemala
2015/16
Thailand
2017/18
2019/20
FOB Caribbean Price
Major Sugar Net Importers
Million Metric Tons
16
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
1999/00
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
Canada
China
2007/08
EU
2009/10
Indonesia
2011/12
Russia
2013/14
2015/16
United States
2017/18
2019/20
40 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Ethanol Price and Net Trade
Million gallons
Dollars per gallon
5,000
2.00
4,000
1.80
3,000
1.60
2,000
1.40
1,000
1.20
0
1.00
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Net Exports
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Anhydrous Ethanol Price, Brazil *
* Represents world ethanol price.
World Biodiesel Price and Net Trade
Million gallons
Dollars per gallon
800
8.0
600
6.0
400
4.0
200
2.0
0
0.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Net Trade
* Represents world biodiesel price.
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Central Europe FOB Price *
2017
2018
2019
Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 41
World Meat Production and Trade
Million Metric Tons
Million Metric Tons
10
300
250
8
200
6
150
4
100
2
50
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Beef Production
Pork Production
Poultry Production
Beef Trade (tmt)
Pork Trade (tmt)
Poultry Trade (tmt)
2017
0
2019
Per Capita Meat Consumption
Kilograms per Person
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Beef
2009
Pork
2011
Poultry
2013
2015
2017
2019
42 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Major Beef Importing Countries
Million Metric Tons
to MMT
in scale option per Jay 3/25/2010
4
usands
3
2
1
0
-1
1999
2001
China
2003
2005
Japan
Russia
2007
2009
Mexico
2011
South Korea
2013
Egypt
2015
2017
Philippines
Beef Export Market Share*
Percent
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Australia
* Based on net exports.
Brazil
New Zealand
2005/2009
2010/2014
India
2015/2019
Argentina
Canada
2019
Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 43
Major Pork Importing Countries
Million Metric Tons
to MMT
in scale option per Jay 3/25/2010
4
usands
3
2
1
0
-1
1999
2001
2003
2005
China
2007
Japan
Russia
2009
2011
Hong Kong
2013
Mexico
2015
2017
Philippines
Pork Export Market Share*
Percent
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
EU
* Based on net exports.
Canada
2005/2009
U.S.
2010/2014
2015/2019
Brazil
2019
44 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Major Broiler Importing Countries
Million Metric Tons
to MMT
in scale option per Jay 3/25/2010
4
usands
3
2
1
0
-1
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
China
Japan
Russia
2009
Hong Kong
2011
2013
Saudi Arabia
2015
2017
Mexico
Broiler Export Market Share*
Percent
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
U.S.
* Based on net exports.
Australia
2005/2009
Brazil
2010/2014
2015/2019
Thailand
2019
Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 45
Butter Net Exports for Selected Countries
Million Metric Tons
2.0 TMT to MMT in scale option per Jay 3/25/2010
art from
ay units: Thousands
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Australia
EU
New Zealand
Other Exports
Asia
Egypt
Mexico
Russia
Other Imports
Cheese Net Exports for Selected Countries
Million Metric Tons
2.0 TMT to MMT in scale option per Jay 3/25/2010
art from
ay units: Thousands
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Australia
Argentina
EU
New Zealand
Japan
Russia
United States
Other Imports
Ukraine
Other Exports
46 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
NFD Trade for Selected Countries
Million Metric Tons
2.0 TMT to MMT in scale option per Jay 3/25/2010
art from
ay units: Thousands
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Australia
EU
New Zealand
U.S.
Mexico
Philippines
Thailand
Other Imports
Other Exports
Indonesia
WMP Trade for Selected Countries
Million Metric Tons
2.0 TMT to MMT in scale option per Jay 3/25/2010
art from
ay units: Thousands
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Argentina
Australia
EU
New Zealand
Asia
Saudi Arabia
Venezuela
Other Imports
Other Exports
Algeria
Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 47
Commodity Price Projections
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
U.S. FOB Gulf
216
201
208
212
216
215
219
222
222
225
223
Canadian Wheat Board
200
189
195
198
201
200
203
205
206
208
206
Wheat
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
AWB Limited Export Quote
199
186
191
194
198
198
201
203
204
206
204
European Union Market
157
191
194
189
193
188
186
195
192
190
201
Rice
FOB U.S. Houston
532
425
422
424
424
426
427
423
432
437
451
World Reference Price*
538
405
401
404
403
405
406
402
411
415
429
Corn
FOB U.S. Gulf
163
168
170
171
173
175
177
177
178
178
176
CIF Rotterdam
197
200
203
205
207
209
211
211
212
212
210
135
132
143
135
137
139
143
142
143
144
148
169
172
172
174
176
178
181
182
184
186
183
Illinois Processor
362
338
357
359
365
371
375
379
384
388
390
CIF Rotterdam
408
382
404
408
414
422
427
431
437
440
442
FOB Decatur 48%
322
300
307
308
312
315
316
316
317
317
318
CIF Rotterdam
377
351
359
361
365
369
369
370
371
371
372
Barley
Canada Feed
Sorghum
FOB U.S. Gulf
Soybeans
Soybean Meal
Soybean Oil
FOB Decatur
812
798
856
870
879
896
921
945
966
984
995
FOB Rotterdam
915
900
963
979
989
1,008
1,035
1,061
1,085
1,105
1,117
Rapeseed
CIF Hamburg
397
409
410
415
419
421
426
435
443
450
450
Cash Vancouver
386
398
399
404
407
410
414
423
430
437
436
191
187
184
189
193
194
197
199
200
200
201
952
985
1,016
1,032
1,036
1,045
1,066
1,104
1,136
1,165
1,172
401
422
420
429
428
430
439
443
448
451
451
181
188
184
190
188
188
188
187
185
184
183
951
996
1,025
1,046
1,057
1,076
1,105
1,131
1,156
1,178
1,193
696
716
749
776
799
824
851
877
904
931
957
117
128
130
131
130
129
128
127
125
123
121
750
794
832
864
891
920
950
981
1,012
1,043
1,071
Rapeseed Meal
FOB Hamburg
Rapeseed Oil
FOB Hamburg
Sunflower
CIF Lower Rhine
Sunflower Meal
CIF Rotterdam
Sunflower Oil
FOB NW Europe
Palm Oil
CIF Rotterdam
Palm Kernel Meal
CIF Rotterdam
Palm Kernel Oil
CIF Rotterdam
* Historically equal to the Thai 100% B. However, for the projection period, this price equilibrates net trade and no longer corresponds to Thai 100% B. Current
Thai policies on domestic price, government storage, and government-to-government exports have limited its usefulness as a reference price.
48 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Commodity Price Projections (continued)
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
1,168
1,142
1,160
1,181
1,194
1,209
138
129
129
130
131
1,159
1,232
1,267
1,300
1,323
FOB Caribbean (raw)
420
430
434
434
431
440
448
449
451
450
457
New York Spot (raw)
647
552
543
553
553
556
565
565
566
567
566
Cotlook A Index
1,633
1,605
1,619
1,632
1,644
1,679
1,707
1,733
1,753
1,770
1,790
U.S. Farm
1,330
1,283
1,294
1,307
1,323
1,352
1,379
1,403
1,421
1,438
1,455
Peanut, U.S. Runners 40/50
CIF Rotterdam
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1,225
1,239
1,249
1,263
1,269
130
130
129
128
127
125
1,352
1,387
1,421
1,451
1,485
1,509
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
Peanut Meal
48/50%, Southeast Mills FOB
Peanut Oil
CIF Rotterdam
Sugar
Cotton
Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 49
Commodity Price Projections (continued)
2009
2010
2011
2012
Anhydrous Ethanol Price, Brazil †
1.60
1.61
1.46
1.53
1.52
1.54
Ethanol, FOB Omaha
1.79
1.74
1.77
1.78
1.79
1.83
Central Europe FOB Price †
3.89
4.14
4.40
4.61
4.75
Biodiesel Plant
3.50
3.67
3.75
3.94
3.99
Ethanol
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
1.57
1.67
1.69
1.74
1.74
1.89
1.92
1.92
1.93
1.93
4.74
4.83
4.98
5.18
5.39
5.58
4.01
4.10
4.22
4.32
4.41
4.41
(U.S. Dollars per Gallon)
Biodiesel
Beef
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
Nebraska Direct Fed-Steer
1,823
1,936
2,107
2,229
2,258
2,261
2,246
2,232
2,223
2,222
2,219
U.S. Retail
9,391
9,820
10,431
10,999
11,329
11,438
11,427
11,390
11,375
11,370
11,365
Steer Price, Alberta
1,796
1,815
1,985
2,105
2,134
2,139
2,127
2,115
2,104
2,103
2,100
Australian Export (CIF U.S.)
2,451
2,454
2,539
2,582
2,594
2,597
2,592
2,588
2,586
2,587
2,588
9,182
20,040
11,096
19,322
11,026
17,974
11,427
17,627
11,797
17,405
11,957
17,210
12,170
17,246
12,380
17,342
12,535
17,391
12,702
17,487
12,851
17,548
Japanese Farm
Dairy beef
Wagyu beef
Pork
Barrows and Gilts National Base
909
1,056
1,185
1,233
1,178
1,135
1,108
1,093
1,113
1,152
1,189
U.S. Retail
51-52% Lean Equivalent
6,437
6,732
7,131
7,415
7,401
7,362
7,321
7,305
7,469
7,712
7,990
Ontario Hogs Index
1,167
1,306
1,482
1,545
1,469
1,411
1,379
1,360
1,386
1,439
1,490
Japanese Wholesale
4,497
5,080
5,363
5,511
5,400
5,283
5,236
5,227
5,303
5,427
5,536
U.S. 12-City Wholesale
1,711
1,717
1,770
1,823
1,850
1,878
1,910
1,939
1,964
1,994
2,018
U.S. Retail
EU Producer
Japanese Wholesale
3,924
2,021
2,486
4,014
1,826
2,433
4,152
1,907
2,512
4,298
2,005
2,597
4,404
2,032
2,662
4,491
2,005
2,723
4,574
2,038
2,787
4,643
2,082
2,846
4,702
2,122
2,895
4,766
2,162
2,950
4,819
2,207
2,993
Chicken
Turkey
U.S. Wholesale
1,760
1,825
1,891
1,940
1,958
1,983
2,007
2,022
2,037
2,066
2,096
U.S. Retail
3,078
3,223
3,279
3,332
3,379
3,426
3,474
3,507
3,533
3,565
3,598
Milk
U.S. All Milk
282
363
379
383
388
392
399
404
407
411
415
Canadian Fluid Milk
701
724
742
771
786
791
778
786
809
826
841
Australian Average Milk
277
322
323
329
334
338
342
347
351
356
362
Cheese
FOB Northern Europe
3,535
3,682
3,715
3,787
3,843
3,880
3,923
3,980
4,026
4,085
4,147
U.S. Wholesale
2,857
3,714
3,814
3,838
3,871
3,908
3,963
4,005
4,027
4,054
4,085
Canadian Wholesale
8,781
9,171
9,384
9,711
9,877
9,899
9,717
9,780
10,037
10,214
10,373
Australian Export
2,958
3,423
3,480
3,546
3,598
3,641
3,699
3,770
3,839
3,912
3,997
Butter
FOB Northern Europe
3,400
3,464
3,366
3,250
3,120
3,046
3,091
3,138
3,182
3,227
3,272
U.S. Wholesale
2,740
3,027
3,216
3,214
3,200
3,226
3,294
3,345
3,391
3,442
3,483
Australian Export
2,348
2,802
2,804
2,815
2,807
2,827
2,878
2,915
2,972
3,046
3,127
Nonfat Dry Milk
FOB Northern Europe
2,476
2,819
2,866
2,975
3,064
3,145
3,209
3,268
3,310
3,359
3,427
U.S. Wholesale
2,190
2,709
2,826
2,934
3,009
3,069
3,115
3,165
3,199
3,248
3,303
Australian Export
2,278
2,682
2,775
2,898
2,982
3,051
3,102
3,158
3,198
3,254
3,319
Whole Milk Powder
FOB Northern Europe
2,825
3,056
3,074
3,129
3,179
3,246
3,302
3,367
3,404
3,456
3,540
Australian Export
2,418
2,842
2,885
2,960
3,022
3,081
3,130
3,196
3,238
3,301
3,375
† Represents world price.
BASELINE ASSUMPTIONS
52 / Baseline Assumptions: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Macroeconomic Assumptions
Macroeconomic projections used in the 2010 FAPRI baseline were obtained from IHS Global Insight. The
slowdown in the world economy in 2009 proved to be deeper and more widespread than originally anticipated,
with an annual rate of real GDP growth of -1.9%. However, recovery is projected to begin in 2010, with long-term
real GDP growth of 3.3% reached by 2011. With the recovery primarily driven by a fiscal and monetary stimulus
and inventory adjustment, its sustainability centers on how quickly and robustly confidence is restored and the
employment picture is improved, leading to transition into private consumption and investment demand for
medium- to longer-term growth. Also, the economic recovery is accompanied by stronger energy prices of $94.2
per barrel in 2019, a cost pressure that might take some of the steam off the growth momentum.
The U.S., where housing and financial market stress originated, and its closely linked developed country
economic partners, such as Japan, the EU, and Canada, show the greatest impacts of the economic crisis, with an
economic slowdown in 2009 of -2.51%, -5.4%, -4.1%, and -2.5%, respectively. The contagion effect in Mexico is
even worse at -6.9% because of its high trade dependence with the U.S., especially in manufacturing exports.
Entering the crisis period in good economic shape, Asian economies withstood the economic crisis, posting
positive growth in 2009 (e.g., China at 8.5% and India at 6.4%), and thus they lead the world economic recovery
with their aggressive fiscal and monetary policies in support of stimulus spending, quick resumption of capital
inflows, and industrial growth momentum after inventory adjustments.
Improved macroeconomic frameworks, lower debt exposure, and larger reserves enabled Latin American and
Caribbean countries to respond with appropriate policy initiatives to support economic activity and cushion
the impact of the economic slowdown. Latin America’s increasing economic link with Asia may speed up its
turnaround. This region’s price inflation is still among the highest, particularly in Argentina and Venezuela.
With both the housing and labor markets still weak in the EU-15, recovery in the rest of the EU will be sluggish,
as capital inflows will be constrained. After depreciating in 2009, most currencies of EU members experience real
appreciation against the U.S. dollar.
After a decade-long run of high and sustained growth in the CIS, Russia and Ukraine post deep slowdowns at
-8.0% and -14.5%, respectively. The rest of the CIS, especially the low-income, non-oil-exporting countries,
follow the path of these major regional players as their export earnings and remittances depend on their
economies. Strengthening of commodity prices is a bright prospect for future growth. The ruble in Russia and
the hryvnia in Ukraine depreciated significantly in 2009, but they strengthen in real terms against the U.S. dollar
thereafter. Projected price inflation is much lower than in previous periods and remains moderate.
Recent sound policy reforms help economies in Africa respond to alleviate the impact of the economic crisis,
and stronger commodity prices give a positive outlook for Africa’s economy in the next decade, including GDP
growth of 4.6%. Most currencies in the region are stable relative to the U.S. dollar, and price inflation is moderate.
Initiatives to diversify into the non-oil sector (e.g., real estate) by countries in the Middle East became the channel
of the contagion effects of the economic slowdown. However, improving oil prices give promising growth
prospects in this region.
Baseline Assumptions: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 53
Real GDP Growth Proje
ections
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
World
-1.9
2.9
3.3
3.9
3.7
3.7
3.5
Developed Market Economies
2016
2017
2018
2019
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
2.1
(Percentage Change from Previous Year)
-3.5
1.8
2.1
2.9
2.6
2.6
2.3
2.2
2.0
2.1
Australia
0.9
3.0
2.7
2.9
3.4
3.2
3.3
3.2
2.8
2.8
2.7
Canada
-2.5
2.5
3.5
3.6
3.3
2.9
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
European Union
-4.1
1.1
1.6
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
Japan
-5.4
0.8
1.5
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.1
1.5
0.9
0.7
0.6
New Zealand
-0.7
2.4
2.2
3.1
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.4
2.7
2.6
United States
-2.5
2.6
2.7
3.8
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.7
Developing Market Economies
1.6
5.4
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.3
5.2
5.1
Africa
2.2
4.0
4.5
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.5
Algeria
2.0
3.1
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.2
2.9
2.5
2.4
2.3
Egypt
4.7
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.2
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
3.9
Nigeria
4.5
5.0
5.4
5.7
5.6
5.6
5.4
5.9
5.7
5.4
5.6
-1.8
2.4
3.3
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.6
4.5
4.7
5.2
5.4
3.1
4.2
4.6
5.2
5.9
5.5
5.0
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.4
0.4
4.6
4.6
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.0
4.8
4.5
4.4
4.3
8.5
9.9
8.5
8.5
8.6
8.8
8.5
8.2
7.8
7.6
7.4
-2.5
4.2
5.5
5.1
4.6
4.4
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
6.4
7.5
7.7
7.8
7.5
7.4
7.4
7.3
7.0
6.5
6.1
Indonesia
4.4
5.5
5.2
5.6
5.2
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.7
4.2
4.0
Malaysia
-2.0
5.2
4.8
5.3
5.7
5.5
5.4
5.2
5.1
5.0
4.8
Pakistan
3.7
4.1
3.5
3.9
4.6
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.2
4.1
Philippines
1.6
3.5
4.5
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.7
South Korea
0.1
4.1
3.2
4.3
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
Taiwan
-2.7
4.4
5.7
5.2
4.7
4.4
4.2
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.5
Thailand
-3.0
5.4
4.1
4.6
4.4
4.7
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.5
4.3
Vietnam
5.3
6.5
6.1
7.1
6.8
6.4
7.3
7.2
7.1
6.8
6.6
-6.5
2.6
4.2
4.8
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.3
3.2
3.2
Russia
-8.0
1.9
3.9
4.6
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.1
Ukraine
-14.6
2.1
6.3
7.5
6.2
5.4
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.4
-3.3
1.2
3.0
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.6
South Africa
Tunisia
Asia
China
Hong Kong
India
Commonwealth of Independent States
European Union-New Member States
Bulgaria
-4.2
1.1
2.8
4.5
4.4
4.6
5.0
4.9
4.7
4.6
4.5
Czech Republic
-5.0
1.4
3.8
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.6
Hungary
-6.5
0.1
2.0
3.3
4.4
4.4
4.5
3.2
2.7
2.5
2.6
1.7
2.0
3.1
5.2
4.4
4.3
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.6
-7.0
1.0
3.8
4.3
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
Poland
Romania
Latin America
-2.2
3.3
4.3
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.0
Argentina
-0.3
1.5
4.1
4.2
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.6
Brazil
-0.4
4.9
5.6
5.3
4.7
4.5
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.1
Colombia
-0.1
2.1
3.2
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
Mexico
-6.9
3.5
3.2
3.5
3.8
3.9
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.2
Paraguay
-3.5
2.4
2.9
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.9
Uruguay
1.8
4.1
4.7
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
Venezuela
-1.8
-0.8
3.5
3.2
3.6
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.3
3.5
3.7
Middle East
-1.3
3.5
5.3
4.9
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.9
3.7
-4.2
3.2
5.4
4.4
3.4
4.0
4.3
4.1
3.7
3.6
3.4
Israel
0.4
2.2
4.8
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.5
Saudi Arabia
0.5
2.6
4.7
5.3
5.0
4.6
4.5
4.3
4.0
3.9
3.6
59.4
63.3
71.8
77.4
81.1
87.9
91.5
93.5
94.9
94.2
Iran
(Dollars per Barrel)
Price
Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil
84.2
December 2009, and projections after 2009 are from IHS Global Insight.
Source: International Financial Statistics De
54 / Baseline Assumptions: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
GDP Deflator Growth P
Projections
2009
2010
2011
Australia
-0.4
3.1
2.9
3.0
2.7
2.6
2.7
Canada
-2.0
2.4
2.2
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
European Union
-0.3
1.8
2.6
2.7
2.7
1.7
Japan
Developed Market Economies
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2.7
2.6
2.4
2.3
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.9
(Percentage Change from Previous Year)
-0.4
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
1.2
1.5
1.6
1.5
1.5
New Zealand
2.2
2.4
2.3
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
United States
1.2
1.0
1.6
1.5
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.8
Developing Market Economies
Africa
Algeria
-0.2
3.1
4.3
4.5
5.3
4.5
4.2
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.1
Egypt
10.8
12.4
8.1
2.9
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
Nigeria
-1.3
10.4
7.7
5.4
5.1
6.8
7.8
6.6
5.7
6.4
5.8
South Africa
9.6
7.3
4.7
5.0
6.2
5.6
6.2
6.0
5.6
5.7
5.7
Tunisia
2.1
2.7
4.0
3.9
2.9
2.8
2.4
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.4
Asia
-1.3
0.3
2.5
2.9
3.1
3.5
3.7
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
Hong Kong
0.9
1.7
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.1
India
4.0
4.4
4.6
5.0
4.8
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
Indonesia
6.6
5.1
5.7
5.7
5.1
4.9
4.8
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.6
Malaysia
-6.5
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
Pakistan
China
22.7
13.0
7.3
5.9
6.1
7.3
7.1
7.1
7.0
6.8
6.7
Philippines
7.0
1.4
3.3
5.1
5.1
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.3
South Korea
3.7
4.0
3.4
3.0
4.1
2.8
2.2
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.2
Taiwan
1.7
1.5
2.2
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
Thailand
1.8
3.5
4.2
4.4
3.5
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
Vietnam
6.2
8.5
7.0
6.5
6.6
6.3
6.1
6.0
5.9
5.7
5.6
Commonwealth of Independent States
Russia
1.8
6.9
7.4
3.8
5.3
4.8
4.3
4.0
3.6
3.2
3.0
Ukraine
11.6
11.1
7.8
8.5
8.3
7.5
6.8
6.7
6.0
5.4
4.9
European Union-New Member States
-8.9
2.0
3.2
2.5
2.7
3.1
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.3
Bulgaria
3.3
1.7
3.3
2.8
2.5
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.9
Czech Republic
2.5
1.3
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.7
Hungary
4.5
2.1
4.2
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.4
Poland
3.7
1.4
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
Romania
7.1
4.0
3.6
3.4
2.3
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.7
Latin America
Argentina
10.0
11.2
8.2
8.0
7.4
7.0
6.6
6.5
6.5
6.2
5.9
Brazil
4.5
4.1
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.3
Colombia
3.2
0.9
3.8
4.4
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.4
Mexico
2.7
2.9
2.2
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
Paraguay
4.7
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.4
Uruguay
6.2
5.9
5.6
5.2
4.9
4.4
4.1
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
21.6
23.0
14.5
15.5
13.7
12.4
10.1
7.1
5.8
6.4
6.4
-10.2
16.7
17.6
15.4
13.7
13.9
13.9
13.8
13.6
13.2
12.9
5.5
-5.0
2.2
4.0
2.9
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.2
-16.8
5.0
7.7
5.7
3.0
3.4
3.5
3.3
2.5
2.2
2.1
Venezuela
Middle East
Iran
Israel
Saudi Arabia
Source: International Financial Statistics De
December 2009, and projections after 2009 are from IHS Global Insight.
Baseline Assumptions: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 55
Exchange Rate* Growtth Projections
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Australia
10.6
-13.6
5.9
-1.8
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
Canada
8.7
-3.2
-0.8
-2.0
-0.2
1.3
3.4
0.9
-1.1
-0.2
0.0
(Percentage Change from Previous Year)
Developed Market Economies
6.7
-0.2
-3.8
-4.4
-0.6
2.9
-0.5
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
Japan
-8.7
-4.9
2.1
-1.8
-2.0
0.6
0.3
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
New Zealand
15.5
-13.5
8.1
2.1
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
European Union †
Developing Market Economies
Africa
Algeria
12.6
1.4
-0.2
-2.7
-1.5
-0.8
-0.5
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
Egypt
2.9
-1.7
-0.7
-0.4
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
1.4
1.1
1.2
1.1
24.1
6.5
-1.2
-3.0
-2.8
4.1
7.6
4.1
2.8
6.1
5.6
4.9
-13.1
4.3
4.4
4.1
3.9
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
10.5
-1.3
-1.5
-2.8
-0.7
-0.6
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
China
-1.7
-1.2
-3.7
-4.4
-4.3
-3.6
-2.3
-1.5
-1.3
-1.1
-1.1
Hong Kong
-0.4
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
India
12.1
-6.0
-2.4
-0.9
0.9
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
Indonesia
9.1
-9.7
0.6
1.4
2.1
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
Malaysia
6.4
-3.4
-0.9
-0.7
-0.5
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Pakistan
15.4
8.2
6.0
5.4
4.9
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.0
3.9
7.9
-2.4
0.7
0.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
Nigeria
South Africa
Tunisia
Asia
Philippines
17.9
-13.0
-9.0
-3.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
Taiwan
0.0
-4.3
-3.2
-4.6
-2.4
-2.5
-2.0
-2.3
-1.2
-1.2
-1.4
Thailand
3.6
-3.0
0.7
-0.5
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
Vietnam
4.0
5.8
6.9
3.8
3.3
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
Russia
29.5
-3.5
2.1
2.4
2.3
2.0
1.3
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.6
Ukraine
47.2
0.5
-3.7
-1.8
-1.8
-1.9
-1.9
-0.9
-1.0
-0.1
-0.1
South Korea
Commonwealth of Independent States
European Union-New Member States
6.4
-0.1
-3.8
-4.4
-0.6
2.9
-0.5
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
Czech Republic
13.4
-0.2
-3.8
-4.4
-0.6
2.9
-0.5
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
Hungary
19.7
-0.2
-3.8
-4.4
-0.6
2.9
-0.5
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
Poland
33.6
-0.2
-3.8
-4.4
-0.6
2.9
-0.5
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
Romania
22.4
-3.6
-5.1
-3.2
-2.1
-1.1
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
Bulgaria
Latin America
Argentina
17.5
9.2
7.4
5.1
4.2
4.5
4.4
4.0
4.6
5.3
4.8
Brazil
11.9
-11.3
5.3
5.4
4.5
3.8
3.7
3.3
3.2
3.1
2.8
Colombia
11.9
-8.8
3.2
3.3
3.2
2.9
2.4
2.0
2.0
3.5
3.7
Mexico
22.4
-5.8
0.7
1.5
1.9
2.2
2.0
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
Paraguay
14.8
-10.1
-4.5
9.0
7.0
5.2
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
5.0
Uruguay
10.1
-3.6
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.1
0.0
25.3
29.5
16.5
12.3
10.3
9.4
10.5
10.0
9.6
9.3
Venezuela
Middle East
Iran
Israel
Saudi Arabia
4.5
1.7
4.8
7.1
10.4
11.4
11.6
11.6
11.4
11.1
10.9
10.4
-2.4
-0.6
-1.7
-0.3
1.5
2.0
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
December 2009, and projections after 2009 are from IHS Global Insight.
Source: International Financial Statistics De
* In local currency per U.S. dollar.
† Not all European Union members have ad
dopted the euro.
56 / Baseline Assumptions: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Population Growth Pro
ojections
2009
2010
2011
1.1
1.1
1.1
Developed Market Economies
Australia
Canada
European Union
Japan
New Zealand
United States
1.2
0.8
0.1
-0.2
0.9
1.0
1.2
0.8
0.1
-0.3
0.9
1.0
1.1
0.8
0.1
-0.3
0.9
1.0
1.1
0.8
0.1
-0.3
0.9
1.0
1.1
0.8
0.0
-0.4
0.8
1.0
1.1
0.8
0.0
-0.4
0.8
1.0
1.1
0.7
0.0
-0.4
0.8
1.0
Developing Market Economies
Africa
Algeria
Egypt
Nigeria
South Africa
Tunisia
2.3
1.2
2.0
2.0
0.1
1.0
2.3
1.2
2.0
2.0
-0.2
1.0
2.2
1.2
2.0
1.9
-0.4
1.0
2.2
1.2
1.9
1.9
-0.4
0.9
2.2
1.2
1.9
1.9
-0.5
0.9
2.2
1.1
1.8
1.8
-0.2
0.9
1.0
0.5
0.5
1.4
1.1
1.7
1.5
2.0
0.3
0.2
0.6
1.1
1.0
0.5
0.5
1.4
1.1
1.7
1.5
1.9
0.2
0.2
0.6
1.1
0.9
0.5
0.4
1.3
1.1
1.7
1.5
1.9
0.2
0.2
0.6
1.1
0.9
0.5
0.4
1.3
1.0
1.7
1.5
1.9
0.2
0.2
0.5
1.0
0.9
0.5
0.4
1.3
1.0
1.7
1.5
1.8
0.2
0.1
0.5
1.0
Commonwealth of Independent States
Russia
Ukraine
-0.1
-0.5
-0.6
-0.1
-0.5
-0.6
-0.1
-0.5
-0.6
-0.1
-0.5
-0.6
European Union-New Member States
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
Romania
-0.1
-0.8
-0.1
-0.3
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
-0.8
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.8
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
-0.2
Latin America
Argentina
Brazil
Colombia
Mexico
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.4
0.5
1.5
1.2
1.0
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.3
0.4
1.5
Middle East
Iran
Israel
Saudi Arabia
1.7
0.9
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.0
1.6
1.7
World
Asia
China
Hong Kong
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Pakistan
Philippines
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam
2012
2016
2017
2018
2019
(Percentage Change from Previous Year)
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
1.0
0.7
0.0
-0.5
0.8
1.0
1.0
0.7
0.0
-0.5
0.8
1.0
1.0
0.7
0.0
-0.5
0.8
1.0
1.0
0.7
0.0
-0.6
0.7
0.9
2.2
1.1
1.8
1.8
0.1
0.9
2.1
1.1
1.7
1.8
0.1
0.9
2.1
1.0
1.7
1.7
0.1
0.8
2.1
1.0
1.7
1.7
0.1
0.8
2.1
1.0
1.6
1.7
0.1
0.8
0.9
0.4
0.4
1.2
1.0
1.6
1.4
1.8
0.2
0.1
0.5
1.0
0.9
0.4
0.3
1.2
0.9
1.6
1.4
1.8
0.1
0.1
0.5
1.0
0.8
0.4
0.3
1.2
0.9
1.6
1.4
1.7
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.9
0.8
0.3
0.3
1.2
0.9
1.6
1.4
1.7
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.9
0.8
0.3
0.2
1.1
0.9
1.6
1.4
1.7
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.9
0.8
0.3
0.2
1.1
0.9
1.5
1.3
1.6
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.8
-0.1
-0.5
-0.6
-0.1
-0.5
-0.6
-0.1
-0.5
-0.6
-0.1
-0.5
-0.7
-0.2
-0.6
-0.7
-0.2
-0.6
-0.7
-0.2
-0.6
-0.7
-0.1
-0.8
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.8
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.8
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.8
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.9
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.9
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.9
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.9
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.3
1.2
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.3
0.4
1.5
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
0.4
1.5
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
0.4
1.4
1.1
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.2
0.4
1.4
1.1
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.2
0.4
1.4
1.0
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.2
0.4
1.4
1.0
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.2
0.4
1.3
1.0
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.2
0.4
1.3
1.0
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.2
0.4
1.3
1.4
1.0
1.6
1.6
1.3
1.0
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.0
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.0
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.0
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.0
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.0
1.3
1.2
1.3
0.9
1.3
1.2
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Interna
ational Data Base, December 31, 2009.
2013
2014
2015
58 / Baseline Assumptions: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Program Provisions
The baseline assumes provisions of the current farm bill, the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act (FCEA) of
2008. Farm bill provisions set to expire under current law are assumed to continue throughout the baseline.
For several commodities, target prices and loan rates adjust in 2010. The percentage of base acreage eligible for
direct payments adjusted in 2009 and is scheduled to adjust again in 2012.
The baseline incorporates the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007. The EISA mandates
minimum levels of biofuel use under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2). The RFS2 regulations were finalized
after the baseline was completed, but the baseline assumptions are generally consistent with the RFS2 rule.
No more than 15 billion gallons of cornstarch-based ethanol can count toward the overall RFS2 mandate in 2015
and subsequent years. The baseline assumes that authority to waive the statutory cellulosic ethanol mandate is
utilized, but all other mandates are enforced.
The baseline assumes that biofuel tax credits and tariffs are extended when they would otherwise expire. This
includes the biodiesel credit, which expired at the end of 2009 and had not yet been renewed at the time the
baseline was prepared in January 2010.
The statutory maximum enrollment in the CRP falls to 32 million acres in 2010, less than actual enrollment in
recent years.
Many CRP contracts are set to expire over the next several years. The baseline assumes that some of the expiring
contracts are not renewed, so total CRP area falls to 30 million acres in 2012.
Baseline Assumptions: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 59
U.S. Program Prov
visions
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
Corn
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
Sorghum
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.35
Wheat
0.52
0.52
0.52
0.52
0.52
Soybeans
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.44
Rice
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
Cotton
6.67
6.67
6.67
6.67
6.67
6.67
Peanuts
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
Corn
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
Sorghum
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
Wheat
2.75
2.94
2.94
2.94
Soybeans
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
Rice
6.50
6.50
6.50
6.50
Cotton
52.00
52.00
52.00
52.00
52.00
52.00
Peanuts
17.75
17.75
17.75
17.75
17.75
17.75
Cane Loan Rate
18.25
18.50
18.75
18.75
18.75
Beet Loan Rate
23.45
23.77
24.09
24.09
24.09
Corn
2.63
2.63
2.63
2.63
2.63
2.63
Sorghum
2.57
2.63
2.63
2.63
2.63
2.63
Wheat
3.92
4.17
4.17
4.17
4.17
Soybeans
5.80
6.00
6.00
6.00
6.00
Rice
10.50
10.50
10.50
10.50
Cotton
71.25
71.25
71.25
71.25
71.25
71.25
Peanuts
24.75
24.75
24.75
24.75
24.75
24.75
33.78
31.18
30.50
30.00
30.00
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.52
0.52
0.52
0.52
0.52
0.52
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.44
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
6.67
6.67
6.67
6.67
6.67
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
1.95
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
6.50
6.50
6.50
6.50
52.00
52.00
52.00
52.00
52.00
17.75
17.75
17.75
17.75
17.75
18.75
18.75
18.75
18.75
18.75
18.75
24.09
24.09
24.09
24.09
24.09
24.09
2.63
2.63
2.63
2.63
2.63
2.63
2.63
2.63
2.63
2.63
4.17
4.17
4.17
4.17
4.17
4.17
6.00
6.00
6.00
6.00
6.00
6.00
10.50
10.50
10.50
10.50
71.25
71.25
71.25
71.25
71.25
24.75
24.75
24.75
24.75
24.75
30.00
30.00
30.00
30.00
30.00
(Dollars per Bushel)
Direct Payment Rate
(Dollars per Hundredweight)
2.35
2.35
2.35
(U.S. Cents per Pound)
(Dollars per Bushel)
Loan Rates
(Dollars per Hundredweight)
6.50
6.50
6.50
(U.S. Cents per Pound)
Target Prices
(Dollars per Bushel)
(Dollars per Hundredweight)
10.50
10.50
10.50
(U.S. Cents per Pound)
(Million Acres)
Conservation Reserve
30.00
60 / Baseline Assumptions: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Agricultural Policy Assumptions
Major energy policies included in the baseline are the U.S. Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA)
of 2007, the Renewable Energy Directive of the EU, fuel mandates and regulations for Argentina and Brazil,
Indonesia’s newly implemented biodiesel consumption mandate, and producer incentives in Canada. In addition,
new provisions in the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008—the 2008 farm bill—are included in this
baseline. Provisions set to expire under both this farm bill and the EISA are assumed to continue throughout
the baseline. Another policy change affecting trade in biofuels is the imposition by the EU of anti-dumping and
countervailing duties on biodiesel (blends B20 and above) of U.S. origin.
CAP reforms continue in the EU. The sugar reforms of the EU Common Market Organization, which were
adopted in 2006, were successful in reducing sugar quota production through voluntary quota reductions and
lower intervention prices. To date, in-quota sugar production has decreased by 5.8 million tons (white value),
just under the 6 million ton target. Although sugar imports from least developed countries enter duty-free under
Everything-but-Arms (EBA), the EU still maintains prohibitive duties on sugar imports from non-preferential
countries. Most of the sugar beet produced over the quota is expected to be used in ethanol production. The EU’s
Renewable Energy Directive has a goal of 20 percent share for renewable energy in total energy consumption,
which includes a 10 percent minimum target for renewable energy consumed in transport. Part of this minimum
target is to be met from biofuel use. Milk quotas in the EU increase by 1% every year between 2009/10 and
2013/14 and then are set to expire by April 2015. In rice, the EU intervention price mechanism is abolished for
2009/10.
The international reference price for rice has been Thai 100% B; however, the current Thai domestic price
insurance scheme and government storage policy has limited Thailand’s role as a residual supplier on the world
market. Thai exports have increasingly been government-to-government without price transparency in the face of
increased competition and downward price pressure from Vietnam rice exports. Consequently, the projected net
trade clearing price generated in the international rice model is used as the world reference price in this baseline
and is more likely to reflect the Vietnam 5% price.
A number of countries introduced major policy changes. China eliminated export taxes on wheat, corn, and barley.
Argentina reduced its export taxes on wheat and corn. Russia reduced its 2010 quota for poultry imports by 18%,
to 781 tmt, and cut the allocation for pork by 11%.
The outlook assumes recovery from the SPS shocks and trade restrictions in meat markets associated with BSE
in North America, FMD in Latin America, especially Argentina, AI in Europe and Asia, and blue ear disease in
China.
Under the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, the commitment schedule of developed countries for export
subsidy limits, TRQ expansion, import duty reduction, and domestic support reduction are fixed at 2000 levels.
Developing countries had their last reform installment implemented in 2004. All of these commitments are held
fixed through 2019/20. The 2010 outlook does not include any conjecture on policy changes arising from the
Doha Round.
Baseline Assumptions: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 61
Agricultural Policy Assumptions
A
for Crops
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
77
101
85
143
1,146
184
517
402
77
108
90
143
1,146
184
524
408
77
108
90
143
1,146
184
531
413
77
108
90
143
1,146
184
531
413
13.7
12.6
12.3
12.1
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
77
77
77
108
108
108
90
90
90
143
143
143
1,146
1,146
1,146
184
184
184
531
531
531
413
413
413
77
108
90
143
1,146
184
531
413
77
108
90
143
1,146
184
531
413
77
108
90
143
1,146
184
531
413
77
108
90
143
1,146
184
531
413
Policy Prices
United States
Corn Loan
Wheat Loan
Barley Loan
Rice Loan
Cotton Loan
Soybean Loan
Beet Sugar Loan
Cane Sugar Loan
Conservation Reserve Program
European Union
Cereal Intervention
Rice Intervention
White Sugar Intervention
Sugar Beet Basic
(Million Hectares)
12.1
12.1
12.1
12.1
12.1
12.1
12.1
101.3
150.0
404.4
26.3
101.3
150.0
404.4
26.3
101.3
150.0
404.4
26.3
101.3
150.0
404.4
26.3
101.3
150.0
404.4
26.3
101.3
150.0
404.4
26.3
101.3
150.0
404.4
26.3
101.3
150.0
404.4
26.3
(Euro per Metric Ton)
101.3
101.3
101.3
150.0
150.0
150.0
404.4
404.4
404.4
26.3
26.3
26.3
580
447
580
447
580
447
580
447
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
580
580
580
447
447
447
580
447
580
447
580
447
580
447
Algeria
Raw Sugar
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
(Percent)
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
Argentina
Raw Sugar
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
China
Corn - in quota
Corn - out quota
Wheat - in quota
Wheat - out quota
1.0
60.0
1.0
65.0
1.0
60.0
1.0
65.0
1.0
60.0
1.0
65.0
1.0
60.0
1.0
65.0
1.0
60.0
1.0
65.0
1.0
60.0
1.0
65.0
1.0
60.0
1.0
65.0
1.0
60.0
1.0
65.0
1.0
60.0
1.0
65.0
1.0
60.0
1.0
65.0
1.0
60.0
1.0
65.0
India
Tariff Reference Price
Soybean Oil
Palm Oil
Tariffs
Rice - in quota
Rice - out quota
Barley
Soybeans
Soybean Meal
Soybean Oil
Rapeseed
Rapeseed Meal
Rapeseed Oil
Sunflower
Sunflower Meal
Sunflower Oil
Peanuts
Peanut Meal
Peanut Oil
Palm Oil
Palm Kernel Oil
Raw Sugar - in quota
Raw Sugar - out quota
Colombia
Raw Sugar
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
65.0
3.0
3.0
5.0
9.0
9.0
5.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
10.0
9.0
9.0
15.0
50.0
65.0
3.0
3.0
5.0
9.0
9.0
5.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
10.0
9.0
9.0
15.0
50.0
65.0
3.0
3.0
5.0
9.0
9.0
5.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
10.0
9.0
9.0
15.0
50.0
65.0
3.0
3.0
5.0
9.0
9.0
5.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
10.0
9.0
9.0
15.0
50.0
65.0
3.0
3.0
5.0
9.0
9.0
5.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
10.0
9.0
9.0
15.0
50.0
65.0
3.0
3.0
5.0
9.0
9.0
5.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
10.0
9.0
9.0
15.0
50.0
65.0
3.0
3.0
5.0
9.0
9.0
5.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
10.0
9.0
9.0
15.0
50.0
65.0
3.0
3.0
5.0
9.0
9.0
5.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
10.0
9.0
9.0
15.0
50.0
65.0
3.0
3.0
5.0
9.0
9.0
5.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
10.0
9.0
9.0
15.0
50.0
65.0
3.0
3.0
5.0
9.0
9.0
5.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
10.0
9.0
9.0
15.0
50.0
65.0
3.0
3.0
5.0
9.0
9.0
5.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
10.0
9.0
9.0
15.0
50.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
62 / Baseline Assumptions: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Agricultural Policy Assumptions
A
for Crops (continued)
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Cuba
Raw Sugar
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
(Percent)
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
Egypt
Raw Sugar
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
European Union
Soybean Oil
Rapeseed Oil
Sunflower Oil
Palm Kernel Oil
Palm Oil
Peanut Oil
6.4
6.4
6.4
3.2
3.8
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
3.2
3.8
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
3.2
3.8
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
3.2
3.8
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
3.2
3.8
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
3.2
3.8
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
3.2
3.8
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
3.2
3.8
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
3.2
3.8
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
3.2
3.8
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
3.2
3.8
6.4
339.0
339.0
339.0
339.0
(Euro per Metric Ton)
339.0
339.0
339.0
339.0
339.0
339.0
339.0
50.0
15.0
50.0
30.0
30.0
0.0
30.0
30.6
0.0
0.0
30.0
30.0
92.7
60.0
50.0
15.0
50.0
30.0
30.0
0.0
30.0
30.6
0.0
0.0
30.0
30.0
92.7
60.0
50.0
15.0
50.0
30.0
30.0
0.0
30.0
30.6
0.0
0.0
30.0
30.0
92.7
60.0
50.0
15.0
50.0
30.0
30.0
0.0
30.0
30.6
0.0
0.0
30.0
30.0
92.7
60.0
50.0
15.0
50.0
30.0
30.0
0.0
30.0
30.6
0.0
0.0
30.0
30.0
92.7
60.0
50.0
15.0
50.0
30.0
30.0
0.0
30.0
30.6
0.0
0.0
30.0
30.0
92.7
60.0
50.0
15.0
50.0
30.0
30.0
0.0
30.0
30.6
0.0
0.0
30.0
30.0
92.7
60.0
50.0
15.0
50.0
30.0
30.0
0.0
30.0
30.6
0.0
0.0
30.0
30.0
92.7
60.0
50.0
15.0
50.0
30.0
30.0
0.0
30.0
30.6
0.0
0.0
30.0
30.0
92.7
60.0
950.0
950.0
950.0
950.0
(Rupees per Metric Ton)
950.0
950.0
950.0
950.0
950.0
950.0
950.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
(Rupiah per Kilogram)
550.0
550.0
550.0
550.0
550.0
550.0
0.0
Tariffs
Raw Sugar
India
Wheat
Corn - in quota
Corn - out quota
Soybeans
Soybean Meal
Soybean Oil
Rapeseed
Rapeseed Meal
Rapeseed Oil
Palm Oil
Peanut
Peanut Meal
Peanut Oil
Raw Sugar
Raw Sugar - Countervailing Rate
Indonesia
Corn
Rapeseed Meal
Raw Sugar
Japan
Wheat - in quota
Wheat - out quota
Corn
Barley - in quota
Barley - out quota
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
550.0
550.0
550.0
550.0
50.0
15.0
50.0
30.0
30.0
0.0
30.0
30.6
0.0
0.0
30.0
30.0
92.7
60.0
(Percent)
50.0
15.0
50.0
30.0
30.0
0.0
30.0
30.6
0.0
0.0
30.0
30.0
92.7
60.0
(Percent)
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
(Percent)
0.0
488.3
0.5
0.0
351.7
0.0
488.3
0.5
0.0
351.7
0.0
488.3
0.5
0.0
351.7
0.0
488.3
0.5
0.0
351.7
0.0
488.3
0.5
0.0
351.7
0.0
488.3
0.5
0.0
351.7
0.0
488.3
0.5
0.0
351.7
0.0
488.3
0.5
0.0
351.7
0.0
488.3
0.5
0.0
351.7
0.0
488.3
0.5
0.0
351.7
0.0
488.3
0.5
0.0
351.7
13.2
13.2
103.1
13.2
13.2
103.1
13.2
13.2
103.1
13.2
13.2
103.1
(Yen per Kilogram)
13.2
13.2
13.2
13.2
13.2
13.2
103.1
103.1
103.1
13.2
13.2
103.1
13.2
13.2
103.1
13.2
13.2
103.1
13.2
13.2
103.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Raw Sugar
36.0
36.0
36.0
36.0
(U.S. Cents per Kilogram)
36.0
36.0
36.0
36.0
36.0
36.0
36.0
Morocco
Raw Sugar
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
Soybean Oil
Rapeseed Oil
White Sugar
Mexico
Corn - in quota
Corn - out quota
0.0
0.0
35.0
(Percent)
0.0
0.0
(Percent)
35.0
35.0
Baseline Assumptions: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 63
Agricultural Policy Assumptions
A
for Crops (continued)
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
(Percent)
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
Pakistan
Wheat
Corn
Sorghum
Barley
Raw Sugar
10
10
5
5
25.0
10
10
5
5
25.0
10
10
5
5
25.0
10
10
5
5
25.0
10
10
5
5
25.0
10
10
5
5
25.0
10
10
5
5
25.0
10
10
5
5
25.0
10
10
5
5
25.0
10
10
5
5
25.0
10
10
5
5
25.0
Peru
Raw Sugar
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.0
35.0
50.0
65.0
35.0
50.0
65.0
35.0
50.0
65.0
35.0
50.0
65.0
35.0
50.0
65.0
35.0
50.0
65.0
35.0
50.0
65.0
35.0
50.0
65.0
35.0
50.0
65.0
35.0
50.0
65.0
35.0
50.0
65.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
140.0
140.0
140.0
140.0
(Dollars per Metric Ton)
140.0
140.0
140.0
140.0
140.0
140.0
0.0
Tariffs
Nigeria
Sorghum
Philippines
Corn
Raw Sugar - in quota
Raw Sugar - out quota
Russia
Corn
Soybean Oil
Rapeseed Oil
Sunflower Oil
Raw Sugar
South Korea
Wheat
Corn - in quota
Corn - out quota
Soybean - in quota
Soybean - out quota
Rapeseed Meal
Soybean Oil
Soybean Meal
Sunflower Meal
Raw Sugar
0.0
0.0
328.0
1.0
487.0
0.0
5.4
1.0
5.0
3.0
0.0
0.0
328.0
1.0
487.0
0.0
5.4
1.0
5.0
3.0
0.0
0.0
328.0
1.0
487.0
0.0
5.4
1.0
5.0
3.0
0.0
0.0
328.0
1.0
487.0
0.0
5.4
1.0
5.0
3.0
0.0
0.0
328.0
1.0
487.0
0.0
5.4
1.0
5.0
3.0
(Percent)
0.0
0.0
328.0
1.0
487.0
0.0
5.4
1.0
5.0
3.0
6.5
5.0
6.5
5.0
6.5
5.0
6.5
5.0
6.5
5.0
6.5
5.0
6.5
5.0
6.5
5.0
6.5
5.0
6.5
5.0
6.5
5.0
Thailand
Raw Sugar-in quota
Raw Sugar-out quota
65.0
94.0
65.0
94.0
65.0
94.0
65.0
94.0
65.0
94.0
65.0
94.0
65.0
94.0
65.0
94.0
65.0
94.0
65.0
94.0
65.0
94.0
Tunisia
Wheat
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
135.0
135.0
135.0
135.0
135.0
135.0
135.0
135.0
135.0
135.0
135.0
Taiwan
Wheat
Soybean Oil
Turkey
Raw Sugar - Third Country Imports
0.0
0.0
328.0
1.0
487.0
0.0
5.4
1.0
5.0
3.0
0.0
0.0
328.0
1.0
487.0
0.0
5.4
1.0
5.0
3.0
0.0
0.0
328.0
1.0
487.0
0.0
5.4
1.0
5.0
3.0
0.0
0.0
328.0
1.0
487.0
0.0
5.4
1.0
5.0
3.0
0.0
0.0
328.0
1.0
487.0
0.0
5.4
1.0
5.0
3.0
64 / Baseline Assumptions: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Agricultural Policy Assumptions
A
for Crops (continued)
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Ukraine
Wheat
Corn
Barley
Raw Sugar - in quota
Raw Sugar - out quota
40.0
30.0
10.0
2.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
10.0
2.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
10.0
2.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
10.0
2.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
10.0
2.0
50.0
(Percent)
40.0
30.0
10.0
2.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
10.0
2.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
10.0
2.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
10.0
2.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
10.0
2.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
10.0
0.0
0.0
Venezuela
Raw Sugar
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
Import Access Commitmentt / Tariff Rate Quotas
China
Corn
Rice - Medium grain
Rice - Long grain
Wheat
Raw Sugar
7,200
2,660
2,660
9,636
1,950
7,200
2,660
2,660
9,636
1,950
7,200
2,660
2,660
9,636
1,950
7,200
2,660
2,660
9,636
1,950
(Thousand Metric Tons)
7,200
7,200
7,200
2,660
2,660
2,660
2,660
2,660
2,660
9,636
9,636
9,636
1,950
1,950
1,950
7,200
2,660
2,660
9,636
1,950
7,200
2,660
2,660
9,636
1,950
7,200
2,660
2,660
9,636
1,950
7,200
2,660
2,660
9,636
1,950
India
Corn
5,000
5,000
5,000
5,000
(Million Metric Tons)
5,000
5,000
5,000
5,000
5,000
5,000
5,000
Japan
Wheat
Barley
Rice
5,740
1,369
682
5,740
1,369
682
5,740
1,369
682
5,740
1,369
682
(Thousand Metric Tons)
5,740
5,740
5,740
1,369
1,369
1,369
682
682
682
5,740
1,369
682
5,740
1,369
682
5,740
1,369
682
5,740
1,369
682
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
11,158
307
13,250
327
13,250
348
13,250
368
13,250
388
13,250
409
13,250
409
13,250
409
13,250
409
13,250
409
13,250
409
1,386
1,386
1,386
1,386
1,386
1,386
1,386
1,386
1,386
1,386
1,386
Thailand
Raw Sugar
13.8
13.8
13.8
13.8
13.8
13.8
13.8
13.8
13.8
13.8
13.8
Ukraine
Raw Sugar
263.9
267.8
267.8
267.8
267.8
267.8
267.8
267.8
267.8
267.8
267.8
14,438
10,843
14,438
10,843
14,438
10,843
14,438
10,843
14,438
10,843
14,438
10,843
14,438
10,843
14,438
10,843
14,438
10,843
14,438
10,843
14,438
10,843
1.274
1.274
1.274
1.274
(Million Metric Tons)
1.274
1.274
1.274
1.274
1.274
1.274
1.274
Mexico
Corn
Philippines
Raw Sugar
South Korea
Corn
Rice
Tariff Rate Quotas
Soybean Oil
Subsidized Export Limits
European Union
Wheat
Coarse Grains
White Sugar
Baseline Assumptions: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 65
Agricultural Policy Assumptions
A
for Crops (continued)
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
23.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
35.0
32.0
32.0
32.0
30.0
30.0
23.5
5.0
5.0
5.0
23.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
35.0
32.0
32.0
32.0
30.0
30.0
23.5
5.0
5.0
5.0
23.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
35.0
32.0
32.0
32.0
30.0
30.0
23.5
5.0
5.0
5.0
23.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
35.0
32.0
32.0
32.0
30.0
30.0
23.5
5.0
5.0
5.0
23.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
35.0
32.0
32.0
32.0
30.0
30.0
23.5
5.0
5.0
5.0
(Percent)
23.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
35.0
32.0
32.0
32.0
30.0
30.0
23.5
5.0
5.0
5.0
23.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
35.0
32.0
32.0
32.0
30.0
30.0
23.5
5.0
5.0
5.0
23.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
35.0
32.0
32.0
32.0
30.0
30.0
23.5
5.0
5.0
5.0
23.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
35.0
32.0
32.0
32.0
30.0
30.0
23.5
5.0
5.0
5.0
23.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
35.0
32.0
32.0
32.0
30.0
30.0
23.5
5.0
5.0
5.0
23.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
35.0
32.0
32.0
32.0
30.0
30.0
23.5
5.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
CIS
Russia
Wheat
Barley
Rapeseed
Sunflower
0.0
0.0
15.0
20.0
0.0
0.0
15.0
20.0
0.0
0.0
15.0
20.0
0.0
0.0
15.0
20.0
0.0
0.0
15.0
20.0
0.0
0.0
15.0
20.0
0.0
0.0
15.0
20.0
0.0
0.0
15.0
20.0
0.0
0.0
15.0
20.0
0.0
0.0
15.0
20.0
0.0
0.0
15.0
20.0
Ukraine
Sunflower
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
Indonesia
Palm Oil
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
13.0
8.4
7.0
13.0
8.4
7.0
13.0
8.4
7.0
13.0
8.4
7.0
13.0
8.4
7.0
13.0
8.4
7.0
13.0
8.4
7.0
13.0
8.4
7.0
13.0
8.4
7.0
13.0
8.4
7.0
13.0
8.4
7.0
13.0
13.0
13.0
13.0
13.0
13.0
13.0
13.0
13.0
13.0
13.0
Export Tax
Argentina
Wheat
Corn
Sorghum
Barley
Soybean
Soybean Meal
Soybean Oil
Sunflower
Sunflower Meal
Sunflower Oil
Peanuts
Peanut Meal
Peanut Oil
Sugar
China
Wheat
Corn
Barley
Domestic Value Added Tax
Brazil
Soybean
Soybean Meal
Soybean Oil
China
Value Added Tax
Oilseeds and Products
Agricultural Policy Assumptions
A
for Biofuels
Canada
Ethanol, Energy Bill mandate
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
4.50
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
(Percent)
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
(Canadian Dollar per Liter)
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.05
0.00
Tariff
Imports from Brazil
Imports from U.S.
0.05
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.05
0.00
Incentive to Producers
0.10
0.10
0.08
0.07
Brazil
Mandated Ethanol Mix in Gasoline
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
(Percent)
25.00
25.00
25.00
25.00
25.00
25.00
25.00
0.10
0.19
0.10
0.19
0.10
0.19
0.10
0.19
0.10
0.19
7.88
8.30
8.73
9.15
9.58
25.00
25.00
25.00
25.00
Import Duty
Duty for Denatured
Duty for Undenatured
0.10
0.19
0.10
0.19
0.10
0.19
0.10
0.19
(Euro per Liter)
0.10
0.10
0.19
0.19
Biofuel Directive Target
5.00
5.75
6.18
6.60
7.03
EU
(percent)
7.45
66 / Baseline Assumptions: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Agricultural Policy Assumptions
A
for Livestock and Dairy Products
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Target Price for Industrial Milk
74.6
74.6
76.2
77.9
Support Price, Butter
7.10
7.10
7.23
7.35
7.48
7.61
Support Price, NFD
6.18
6.18
6.31
6.45
6.59
6.73
Beef Basic
2,287
2,287
2,287
2,287
2,287
Pork Basic
1,510
1,510
1,510
1,510
1,510
Intervention Price for Butter
2,464
2,464
2,464
2,464
Intervention Price for NFD
1,747
1,747
1,747
1,747
Japan
Pork Standard Import Price
546.5
546.5
546.5
546.5
Argentina
Beef
Pork
Broiler
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
Whole Milk Powder
Fluid Milk
0.4
2.8
2.7
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
13.0
0.4
2.8
2.7
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
13.0
0.4
2.8
2.7
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
13.0
0.4
2.8
2.7
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
13.0
0.4
2.8
2.7
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
13.0
(Percent)
0.4
2.8
2.7
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
13.0
Brazil
Beef
Pork
Broiler
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
Whole Milk Powder
Fluid Milk
0.0
10.0
10.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
13.0
0.0
10.0
10.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
13.0
0.0
10.0
10.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
13.0
0.0
10.0
10.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
13.0
0.0
10.0
10.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
13.0
Canada
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
Whole Milk Powder
298.5
245.5
201.5
243.4
298.5
245.5
201.5
243.4
298.5
245.5
201.5
243.4
298.5
245.5
201.5
243.4
China
Beef
Pork
Poultry
Lamb-Mutton
Egg
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
Whole Milk Powder
Fluid Milk
12.0
12.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
10.0
12.0
10.0
10.0
15.0
12.0
12.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
10.0
12.0
10.0
10.0
15.0
12.0
12.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
10.0
12.0
10.0
10.0
15.0
Colombia
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
Whole Milk Powder
115.0
141.0
151.0
151.0
115.0
141.0
151.0
151.0
115.0
141.0
151.0
151.0
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
85.0
86.8
88.7
90.7
7.74
7.88
8.01
8.15
8.30
6.87
7.02
7.17
7.32
7.48
2,287
2,287
2,287
2,287
2,287
2,287
1,510
1,510
1,510
1,510
1,510
1,510
2,464
2,464
2,464
2,464
2,464
2,464
2,464
1,747
1,747
1,747
1,747
1,747
1,747
1,747
(Yen per Kilogram)
546.5
546.5
546.5
546.5
546.5
546.5
546.5
0.4
2.8
2.7
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
13.0
0.4
2.8
2.7
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
13.0
0.4
2.8
2.7
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
13.0
0.4
2.8
2.7
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
13.0
0.4
2.8
2.7
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
13.0
0.0
10.0
10.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
13.0
0.0
10.0
10.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
13.0
0.0
10.0
10.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
13.0
0.0
10.0
10.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
13.0
0.0
10.0
10.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
13.0
0.0
10.0
10.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
13.0
298.5
245.5
201.5
243.4
298.5
245.5
201.5
243.4
298.5
245.5
201.5
243.4
298.5
245.5
201.5
243.4
298.5
245.5
201.5
243.4
298.5
245.5
201.5
243.4
298.5
245.5
201.5
243.4
12.0
12.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
10.0
12.0
10.0
10.0
15.0
12.0
12.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
10.0
12.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
12.0
12.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
10.0
12.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
12.0
12.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
10.0
12.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
12.0
12.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
10.0
12.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
12.0
12.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
10.0
12.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
12.0
12.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
10.0
12.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
12.0
12.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
10.0
12.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
115.0
141.0
151.0
151.0
115.0
141.0
151.0
151.0
115.0
141.0
151.0
151.0
115.0
141.0
151.0
151.0
115.0
141.0
151.0
151.0
115.0
141.0
151.0
151.0
115.0
141.0
151.0
151.0
115.0
141.0
151.0
151.0
Policy Prices
(Canadian Cents per Hectoliter)
Canada
79.6
81.4
83.1
(Canadian Dollars per Kilogram)
European Union
(Euro per Metric Ton)
Policy Prices
Import Tariffs
Baseline Assumptions: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 67
Agricultural Policy Assumptions
A
for Livestock and Dairy Products (continued)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
5.0
30.0
8.5
8.5
3.5
12.8
5.0
30.0
8.5
8.5
3.5
12.8
5.0
30.0
8.5
8.5
3.5
12.8
5.0
30.0
8.5
8.5
3.5
12.8
5.0
30.0
8.5
8.5
3.5
12.8
(Percent)
5.0
30.0
8.5
8.5
3.5
12.8
5.0
30.0
8.5
8.5
3.5
12.8
5.0
30.0
8.5
8.5
3.5
12.8
5.0
30.0
8.5
8.5
3.5
12.8
5.0
30.0
8.5
8.5
3.5
12.8
5.0
30.0
8.5
8.5
3.5
12.8
1,768.3
536.3
325.1
1,768.3
536.3
325.1
1,768.3
536.3
325.1
1,768.3
536.3
325.1
(Euro per Metric Ton)
1,768.3 1,768.3 1,768.3
536.3
536.3
536.3
325.1
325.1
325.1
1,768.3
536.3
325.1
1,768.3
536.3
325.1
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
(Euro per Metric Ton)
1,896.0 1,896.0 1,896.0
1,671.0 1,671.0 1,671.0
1,188.0 1,188.0 1,188.0
1,304.0 1,304.0 1,304.0
1,896.0
1,671.0
1,188.0
1,304.0
1,896.0
1,671.0
1,188.0
1,304.0
1,896.0
1,671.0
1,188.0
1,304.0
1,896.0
1,671.0
1,188.0
1,304.0
Import Tariffs
Egypt
Beef
Poultry
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
Whole Milk Powder
European Union
Beef
Pork
Broiler
Beef
12.8
(Percent)
12.8
1,768.3 1,768.3
536.3
536.3
325.1
325.1
1,896.0
1,671.0
1,188.0
1,304.0
1,896.0
1,671.0
1,188.0
1,304.0
1,896.0
1,671.0
1,188.0
1,304.0
1,896.0
1,671.0
1,188.0
1,304.0
30.0
30.0
40.0
60.0
30.0
30.0
40.0
60.0
30.0
30.0
40.0
60.0
30.0
30.0
40.0
60.0
30.0
30.0
40.0
60.0
(Percent)
30.0
30.0
40.0
60.0
30.0
30.0
40.0
60.0
30.0
30.0
40.0
60.0
30.0
30.0
40.0
60.0
30.0
30.0
40.0
60.0
30.0
30.0
40.0
60.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
38.5
4.3
8.5
29.8
29.8
29.8
38.5
4.3
8.5
29.8
29.8
29.8
38.5
4.3
8.5
29.8
29.8
29.8
38.5
4.3
8.5
29.8
29.8
29.8
38.5
4.3
8.5
29.8
29.8
29.8
38.5
4.3
8.5
29.8
29.8
29.8
38.5
4.3
8.5
29.8
29.8
29.8
38.5
4.3
8.5
29.8
29.8
29.8
38.5
4.3
8.5
29.8
29.8
29.8
38.5
4.3
8.5
29.8
29.8
29.8
38.5
4.3
8.5
29.8
29.8
29.8
Malaysia
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
Whole Milk Powder
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.0
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.0
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.0
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.0
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.0
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.0
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.0
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.0
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.0
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.0
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.0
Mexico
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
Whole Milk Powder
20.0
68.6
125.1
67.6
20.0
68.6
125.1
67.6
20.0
68.6
125.1
67.6
20.0
68.6
125.1
67.6
20.0
68.6
125.1
67.6
20.0
68.6
125.1
67.6
20.0
68.6
125.1
67.6
20.0
68.6
125.1
67.6
20.0
68.6
125.1
67.6
20.0
68.6
125.1
67.6
20.0
68.6
125.1
67.6
New Zealand
Pork
Poultry
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
Whole Milk Powder
Fluid Milk
5.0
6.5
0.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
6.5
0.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
6.5
0.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
6.5
0.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
6.5
0.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
6.5
0.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
6.5
0.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
6.5
0.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
6.5
0.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
6.5
0.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
6.5
0.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
Whole Milk Powder
India
Beef
Poultry
Butter
Nonfat Dry Milk
Indonesia
Beef
Pork
Broiler
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
Whole Milk Powder
Japan
Beef
Pork
Poultry
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
68 / Baseline Assumptions: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Agricultural Policy Assumptions
A
for Livestock and Dairy Products (continued)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Paraguay
Beef
Pork
Poultry
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
(Percent)
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
Peru
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
Whole Milk Powder
30.0
30.0
68.0
68.0
30.0
30.0
68.0
68.0
30.0
30.0
68.0
68.0
30.0
30.0
68.0
68.0
30.0
30.0
68.0
68.0
30.0
30.0
68.0
68.0
30.0
30.0
68.0
68.0
30.0
30.0
68.0
68.0
30.0
30.0
68.0
68.0
30.0
30.0
68.0
68.0
30.0
30.0
68.0
68.0
Philippines
Beef
Pork
Poultry
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
Whole Milk Powder
Fluid Milk
10.0
30.0
40.0
7.0
7.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
10.0
30.0
40.0
7.0
7.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
10.0
30.0
40.0
7.0
7.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
10.0
30.0
40.0
7.0
7.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
10.0
30.0
40.0
7.0
7.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
10.0
30.0
40.0
7.0
7.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
10.0
30.0
40.0
7.0
7.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
10.0
30.0
40.0
7.0
7.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
10.0
30.0
40.0
7.0
7.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
10.0
30.0
40.0
7.0
7.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
10.0
30.0
40.0
7.0
7.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
Russia
Beef
Pork
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
Whole Milk Powder
Dairy Products
15.0
15.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
15.0
15.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
15.0
15.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
15.0
15.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
15.0
15.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
15.0
15.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
15.0
15.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
15.0
15.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
15.0
15.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
15.0
15.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
15.0
15.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
Saudi Arabia
Poultry
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
Whole Milk Powder
0.3
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
0.3
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
0.4
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
0.4
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
(U.S. Dollars per Kilogram)
0.4
0.4
0.4
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
0.4
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
0.4
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
0.4
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
0.4
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
South Africa
Beef
Poultry
13.8
5.0
13.8
5.0
13.8
5.0
13.8
5.0
13.8
5.0
(Percent)
13.8
5.0
13.8
5.0
13.8
5.0
13.8
5.0
13.8
5.0
13.8
5.0
South Korea
Beef
Pork
Broiler
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
Whole Milk Powder
40.0
22.5
18.0
89.0
36.0
176.0
176.0
40.0
22.5
18.0
89.0
36.0
176.0
176.0
40.0
22.5
18.0
89.0
36.0
176.0
176.0
40.0
22.5
18.0
89.0
36.0
176.0
176.0
40.0
22.5
18.0
89.0
36.0
176.0
176.0
40.0
22.5
18.0
89.0
36.0
176.0
176.0
40.0
22.5
18.0
89.0
36.0
176.0
176.0
40.0
22.5
18.0
89.0
36.0
176.0
176.0
40.0
22.5
18.0
89.0
36.0
176.0
176.0
40.0
22.5
18.0
89.0
36.0
176.0
176.0
40.0
22.5
18.0
89.0
36.0
176.0
176.0
Switzerland
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
Whole Milk Powder
16,420
255
3,230
6,560
16,420
255
3,230
6,560
16,420
255
3,230
6,560
16,420
255
3,230
6,560
(Swiss Franc per Metric Ton)
16,420
16,420
16,420
255
255
255
3,230
3,230
3,230
6,560
6,560
6,560
16,420
255
3,230
6,560
16,420
255
3,230
6,560
16,420
255
3,230
6,560
16,420
255
3,230
6,560
Thailand
Beef
Pork
Poultry
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
Whole Milk Powder
50.0
40.0
30.0
30
30
5
18
50.0
40.0
30.0
30
30
5
18
50.0
40.0
30.0
30
30
5
18
50.0
40.0
30.0
30
30
5
18
50.0
40.0
30.0
30
30
5
18
50.0
40.0
30.0
30
30
5
18
50.0
40.0
30.0
30
30
5
18
50.0
40.0
30.0
30
30
5
18
Import Tariffs
50.0
40.0
30.0
30
30
5
18
(Percent)
50.0
40.0
30.0
30
30
5
18
50.0
40.0
30.0
30
30
5
18
Baseline Assumptions: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 69
Agricultural Policy Assumptions
A
for Livestock and Dairy Products (continued)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Taiwan
Beef
10.0
10.0
10.0
(New Taiwan Dollars per Kilogram)
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
Pork
Poultry
12.5
20.0
12.5
20.0
12.5
20.0
12.5
20.0
12.5
20.0
(Percent)
12.5
20.0
12.5
20.0
12.5
20.0
12.5
20.0
12.5
20.0
12.5
20.0
Ukraine
Beef
Pork
Poultry
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
Whole Milk Powder
20.0
30.0
30.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
30.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
30.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
30.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
30.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
30.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
30.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
30.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
30.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
30.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
30.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
Uruguay
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
Whole Milk Powder
55.0
55.0
35.0
35.0
55.0
55.0
35.0
35.0
55.0
55.0
35.0
35.0
55.0
55.0
35.0
35.0
55.0
55.0
35.0
35.0
55.0
55.0
35.0
35.0
55.0
55.0
35.0
35.0
55.0
55.0
35.0
35.0
55.0
55.0
35.0
35.0
55.0
55.0
35.0
35.0
55.0
55.0
35.0
35.0
Vietnam
Beef
Pork
Poultry
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
Whole Milk Powder
20.0
30.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
30.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
30.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
30.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
30.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
30.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
30.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
30.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
30.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
30.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
30.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
10.0
15.0
91.0
91.0
91.0
91.0
(Thousand Metric Ton)
91.0
91.0
91.0
91.0
91.0
91.0
91.0
76.2
73.5
74.7
77.6
79.3
80.4
81.6
83.1
84.0
84.8
86.0
3.3
20.4
3.3
20.4
3.3
20.4
3.3
20.4
3.3
20.4
3.3
20.4
3.3
20.4
3.3
20.4
3.3
20.4
3.3
20.4
3.3
20.4
41.4
4.0
491.7
28.2
122.8
69.2
41.4
4.0
491.7
30.2
122.8
69.3
41.4
4.0
491.7
32.3
122.8
69.3
41.4
4.0
491.7
34.3
122.8
69.3
41.4
4.0
491.7
36.3
122.8
69.3
41.4
4.0
491.7
38.3
122.8
69.3
41.4
4.0
491.7
40.3
122.8
69.4
41.4
4.0
491.7
42.4
122.9
69.4
41.4
4.0
491.7
44.4
122.9
69.4
41.4
4.0
491.7
46.4
122.9
69.4
41.4
4.0
491.7
48.4
122.9
69.5
Philippines
Beef
Pork
Poultry
5.6
54.2
23.5
5.6
54.2
23.5
5.6
54.2
23.5
5.6
54.2
23.5
5.6
54.2
23.5
5.6
54.2
23.5
5.6
54.2
23.5
5.6
54.2
23.5
5.6
54.2
23.5
5.6
54.2
23.5
5.6
54.2
23.5
South Africa
Beef
Poultry
26.3
29.0
26.3
29.0
26.3
29.0
26.3
29.0
26.3
29.0
26.3
29.0
26.3
29.0
26.3
29.0
26.3
29.0
26.3
29.0
26.3
29.0
0.4
1.0
0.6
0.4
1.0
0.6
0.4
1.0
0.6
0.4
1.0
0.6
0.4
1.0
0.6
0.4
1.0
0.6
0.4
1.0
0.6
0.4
1.0
0.6
0.4
1.0
0.6
0.4
1.0
0.6
0.4
1.0
0.6
15.4
15.4
15.4
15.4
15.4
15.4
15.4
15.4
15.4
15.4
15.4
Import Tariffs
Import Access Commitment
Canada
Beef
Poultry NAFTA
Min. Access
Butter
Cheese
European Union
Beef
Pork
Poultry
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
South Korea
Butter
Nonfat Dry Milk
Whole Milk Powder
Taiwan
Pork
70 / Baseline Assumptions: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Agricultural Policy Assumptions
A
for Livestock and Dairy Products (continued)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
92
84
92
84
92
84
92
84
(Thousand Metric Ton)
92
92
92
84
84
84
92
84
92
84
92
84
92
84
797
274
211
433
346
273
958
797
274
211
433
346
273
958
797
274
211
433
346
273
958
797
274
211
433
346
273
958
797
274
211
433
346
273
958
797
274
211
433
346
273
958
797
274
211
433
346
273
958
797
274
211
433
346
273
958
797
274
211
433
346
273
958
797
274
211
433
346
273
958
797
274
211
433
346
273
958
13
1
13
1
13
1
13
1
13
1
13
1
13
1
13
1
13
1
13
1
13
1
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Maximum Subsidized Export Commitment
C
Brazil
Beef
Poultry
European Union
Beef
Pork
Poultry
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat Dry Milk
Other Milk Products
South Africa
Beef
Poultry
Other Agricultural Policy Assumptions
2009
2010
2011
Summary Table of EU CAP Refform and Enlargement
Decoupling
Crops
(percent)
93
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Cattle
78
78
78
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Sheep
73
73
73
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7
8
9
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
148
149
151
152
Butter †
246
246
246
246
246
246
246
246
246
246
246
NFD †
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
Livestock
Dairy
Modulation
(Million Metric Tons)
Dairy Quota
Milk Delivery Quota *
Intervention Price and Premium
m
154
154
(Euro per 100 Kilogram)
15.
* Milk delivery quota is abolished in 201
g-year prices.
† Calendar-average prices of marketing
U.S. CROPS
72 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Wheat
In 2008/09 and 2009/10, U.S. wheat production far exceeded domestic use and exports. This has resulted in a
sharp rebuilding of stocks, to the highest level since the 1980s. As long as wheat stocks remain high, it will be
difficult for wheat prices to increase relative to corn prices.
Poor wheat crops in Europe, Australia, and in other exporting countries and regions contributed to a large increase
in U.S. wheat exports in 2007/08. The much larger crops of major competitors limited U.S. wheat exports in
2008/09 and again in 2009/10. Projected exports remain far below recent peaks.
After jumping in 2008/09, wheat feed use has declined in 2009/10. Wheat prices are projected to remain low
enough relative to corn prices to encourage continued moderate levels of domestic feed use.
Lower wheat prices in 2009/10 result in a large reduction in wheat market receipts per acre. Variable production
expenses also decline in 2009/10, but by less than the reduction in receipts.
Lower producer returns for wheat relative to competing crops and unfavorable weather in the fall of 2009 caused
a large reduction in winter wheat acreage for harvest in 2010. Total U.S. wheat area planted is projected to decline
by more than 5 million acres in 2010. An assumed return to normal weather results in a slight increase in wheat
acreage in 2011, but wheat area soon resumes its long-term decline.
Wheat yields exceeded 44 bushels per acre in both 2008 and 2009. Projected yields dip slightly in 2010 in
response to reduced acreage in high-yielding states, lower wheat prices, and an assumed return to average
growing conditions.
Projected reductions in acreage and production allow a modest drawdown in wheat stocks in 2010/11, but stocks
exceed 700 million bushels throughout the baseline.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 73
U.S. Wheat Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Area
Planted Area
Harvested Area
59.1
49.9
53.6
45.6
54.9
46.7
55.0
46.7
(Million Acres)
54.9
54.5
46.6
46.3
54.0
45.9
53.9
45.7
53.6
45.5
53.3
45.3
53.1
45.1
Yield
44.4
43.2
44.0
44.3
(Bushels per Acre)
44.7
45.0
45.3
45.7
46.1
46.4
46.7
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
2,982
657
2,216
109
3,034
963
1,968
104
2,989
829
2,053
106
2,927
748
2,071
108
(Million Bushels)
2,920
2,911
2,909
729
721
721
2,082
2,081
2,078
109
109
110
2,915
715
2,089
111
2,920
712
2,097
111
2,927
713
2,102
112
2,929
711
2,105
112
Domestic Use
Feed, Residual
Seed
Food, Other
1,194
177
72
945
1,268
227
74
968
1,267
217
74
976
1,272
212
74
986
1,274
205
74
995
1,287
209
73
1,005
1,293
205
73
1,014
1,298
201
73
1,024
1,310
203
73
1,034
1,316
199
73
1,044
1,330
201
73
1,056
825
937
974
926
925
903
902
904
897
900
883
2,019
2,205
2,241
2,198
2,198
2,190
2,195
2,203
2,207
2,216
2,213
Ending Stocks
CCC Inventory
Under Loan
Other Stocks
963
0
39
924
829
0
49
780
748
0
47
701
729
0
46
683
721
0
44
678
721
0
44
677
715
0
42
673
712
0
41
671
713
0
41
672
711
0
40
671
716
0
41
675
Prices, Program Provisions
Farm Price
Loan Rate
Target Price
Direct Payment Rate
4.92
2.75
3.92
0.52
4.58
2.94
4.17
0.52
4.74
2.94
4.17
0.52
4.81
2.94
4.17
0.52
(U.S. Dollars per Bushel)
4.90
4.90
4.99
2.94
2.94
2.94
4.17
4.17
4.17
0.52
0.52
0.52
5.04
2.94
4.17
0.52
5.05
2.94
4.17
0.52
5.11
2.94
4.17
0.52
5.06
2.94
4.17
0.52
Base Area
72.8
72.9
72.9
72.9
(Million Acres)
72.9
72.9
72.9
72.9
72.9
72.9
72.9
Direct Payment Yield
CCP Yield
34.4
36.0
34.4
36.0
34.4
36.0
34.4
36.0
(Bushels per Acre)
34.4
34.4
34.4
36.0
36.0
36.0
34.4
36.0
34.4
36.0
34.4
36.0
34.4
36.0
ACRE Participation Rate
12.7
19.1
20.3
21.6
21.6
21.6
21.6
21.6
21.6
21.6
Returns and Payments
Gross Market Revenue
Variable Expenses
Market Net Returns
Marketing Loan Benefits
ACRE Payments
CCP Payment/Base
Direct Payment/Base
218.46
108.07
110.39
0.00
3.18
0.00
14.52
197.70
108.60
89.10
0.00
4.10
0.00
14.33
208.36
114.30
94.06
0.00
1.68
0.00
14.30
213.17
118.01
95.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
14.55
(U.S. Dollars per Acre)
218.97
220.29
225.88
121.04
124.38
129.02
97.92
95.91
96.86
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
14.55
14.55
14.55
230.14
132.23
97.91
0.00
0.00
0.00
14.55
232.83
134.52
98.31
0.00
0.00
0.00
14.55
237.19
136.85
100.34
0.00
0.00
0.00
14.55
236.44
138.92
97.53
0.00
0.15
0.00
14.55
Exports
Total Use
13/14
14/15
(Percent)
21.6
74 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Rice
After two straight years of relatively high prices, U.S. rice acreage and production increased sharply in 2009/10.
In spite of modest increases in 2009/10 domestic use and exports, projected rice carryover stocks increase. These
large stocks boost 2010/11 rice supplies, even if rice acreage and production decline as projected.
After reaching record levels in 2008/09, U.S. and world rice prices have declined in response to increasing rice
supplies.
Projected rice prices fall even more sharply in 2010/11. The prices that prevailed from 2007 to 2009 are unlikely
to persist given the projected global supply-demand balance.
Farm rice prices average slightly less than $10 per hundredweight after 2010/11. Short- and medium-grain rice
continues to sell at a large premium compared to long-grain rice.
Lower projected rice prices sharply reduce net returns to rice producers in 2009/10 and 2010/11. After a dip in
2009/10, rice variable production expenses rise steadily, eroding producer net returns.
Lower producer returns for rice relative to other crops results in lower rice acreage in 2010. Short- and mediumgrain rice account for most of the decline.
Domestic per capita rice consumption increases slightly over the baseline, but population growth accounts for
most of the increase in rice domestic use.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 75
U.S. Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
3.14
3.10
2.96
2.94
2.80
2.78
2.79
2.77
2.79
2.77
2.78
2.76
2.78
2.76
2.79
2.77
2.82
2.79
Yield
7,085
7,178
7,242
7,309
(Pounds per Acre)
7,377
7,444
7,511
7,577
7,632
7,687
7,742
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
271.3
30.4
219.9
21.0
274.0
42.2
210.9
20.9
265.8
42.7
201.7
21.4
263.4
39.2
202.4
21.8
(Million Hundredweight)
264.3
266.2
268.4
37.3
37.2
37.6
204.9
206.6
207.9
22.1
22.5
22.9
270.6
38.2
209.1
23.3
273.2
39.0
210.5
23.7
276.6
39.7
212.8
24.1
281.2
40.3
216.4
24.4
Domestic Use
130.2
133.3
134.9
136.5
138.2
139.9
141.6
143.4
145.1
146.8
148.4
98.9
97.9
91.6
89.7
89.0
88.7
88.5
88.1
88.4
89.4
91.7
229.1
231.2
226.5
226.2
227.1
228.6
230.1
231.5
233.5
236.2
240.2
42.2
0.0
42.2
42.7
0.0
42.7
39.2
0.0
39.2
37.3
0.0
37.3
37.2
0.0
37.2
37.6
0.0
37.6
38.2
0.0
38.2
39.0
0.0
39.0
39.7
0.0
39.7
40.3
0.0
40.3
41.0
0.0
41.0
13.79
11.41
6.50
10.50
2.35
9.91
8.02
6.50
10.50
2.35
9.81
7.80
6.50
10.50
2.35
9.90
7.87
6.50
10.50
2.35
9.77
7.70
6.50
10.50
2.35
9.83
7.81
6.50
10.50
2.35
9.88
7.90
6.50
10.50
2.35
10.03
8.18
6.50
10.50
2.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
4,818
5,131
4,818
5,131
4,818
5,131
4,818
5,131
(Pounds per Acre)
4,818
4,818
4,818
5,131
5,131
5,131
4,818
5,131
4,818
5,131
4,818
5,131
4,818
5,131
ACRE Participation Rate
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Returns and Payments
Gross Market Revenue
Variable Expenses
Market Net Returns
Marketing Loan Benefits
ACRE Payments
CCP Payment/Base
Direct Payment/Base
977.37
430.23
547.14
0.00
0.00
0.00
94.32
711.46
444.12
267.35
0.00
0.00
0.00
94.32
710.58
468.79
241.79
0.00
0.00
0.00
94.32
723.57
485.12
238.45
0.00
0.00
0.00
96.25
(U.S. Dollars per Acre)
729.27
735.29
741.58
498.16
511.52
528.83
231.10
223.77
212.75
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
96.25
96.25
96.25
740.44
542.08
198.36
0.00
0.00
0.00
96.25
749.87
551.84
198.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
96.25
759.10
561.63
197.47
0.00
0.00
0.00
96.25
776.23
569.27
206.96
0.00
0.00
0.00
96.25
Area
Planted Area
Harvested Area
Exports
Total Use
Ending Stocks
CCC Inventory
Other Stocks
Prices, Program Provisions
Farm Price
Adjusted World Price
Loan Rate
Target Price
Direct Payment Rate
Base Area
Direct Payment Yield
CCP Yield
Note: Figures in this table are in rough (paddy) basis.
13/14
14/15
(Million Acres)
2.80
2.80
2.78
2.78
(U.S. Dollars per Hundredweight)
9.89
9.88
9.87
7.86
7.85
7.83
6.50
6.50
6.50
10.50
10.50
10.50
2.35
2.35
2.35
(Million Acres)
4.35
4.35
0.0
(Percent)
0.0
76 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Long-Grain Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
2.29
1.26
0.01
0.42
0.25
0.20
0.17
2.25
1.29
0.01
0.40
0.22
0.19
0.15
2.14
1.24
0.01
0.39
0.21
0.17
0.13
2.13
1.24
0.01
0.39
0.20
0.17
0.13
(Million Acres)
2.14
2.13
1.24
1.24
0.01
0.01
0.39
0.39
0.21
0.21
0.17
0.16
0.13
0.13
2.12
1.23
0.01
0.38
0.21
0.16
0.13
2.10
1.23
0.01
0.38
0.21
0.16
0.12
2.10
1.22
0.01
0.38
0.21
0.16
0.12
2.11
1.23
0.01
0.39
0.21
0.16
0.12
2.13
1.24
0.01
0.39
0.21
0.16
0.13
2.27
2.24
2.13
2.12
2.12
2.10
2.09
2.08
2.09
2.11
6,743
6,900
6,961
7,027
(Pounds per Acre)
7,093
7,159
7,224
7,290
7,346
7,401
7,457
190.80
20.05
152.73
18.03
194.41
22.05
154.36
18.00
189.66
23.37
147.99
18.30
189.60
22.27
148.78
18.55
(Million Hundredweight)
191.26
192.61
193.80
22.16
22.52
22.87
150.33
151.09
151.67
18.77
19.01
19.25
194.90
23.24
152.16
19.51
196.53
23.67
153.10
19.76
198.90
23.90
154.97
20.02
202.20
24.26
157.68
20.26
Domestic Use
99.38
100.44
101.34
102.62
103.98
105.12
106.36
107.59
108.49
109.71
110.68
Exports
69.37
70.60
66.06
64.82
64.77
64.62
64.19
63.64
64.14
64.92
66.96
Residual
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Ending Stocks
22.05
23.37
22.27
22.16
22.52
22.87
23.24
23.67
23.90
24.26
24.56
Prices
Farm Price
Milled Rice, Gulf
Milled Rice, Thai 100% B
12.76
24.90
24.42
9.18
18.74
18.37
9.15
18.94
18.19
9.18
19.16
18.30
9.00
19.32
18.25
9.15
19.66
18.63
9.22
19.78
18.83
9.46
20.18
19.45
Area
Planted Area
Arkansas
California
Louisiana
Mississippi
Missouri
Texas
Harvested Area
Yield
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
13/14
14/15
2.11
(U.S. Dollars per Hundredweight)
9.11
9.11
9.09
19.16
19.29
19.38
18.28
18.37
18.40
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 77
U.S. Medium- and Short-Grain Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
0.85
0.23
0.56
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.70
0.14
0.52
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.66
0.12
0.50
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.66
0.12
0.50
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.01
(Million Acres)
0.66
0.67
0.12
0.12
0.50
0.51
0.03
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.67
0.12
0.51
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.68
0.12
0.51
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.68
0.13
0.51
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.68
0.13
0.51
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.69
0.13
0.52
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.84
0.70
0.66
0.65
0.66
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.68
Yield
8,010
8,069
8,152
8,227
(Pounds per Acre)
8,292
8,350
8,410
8,469
8,517
8,573
8,625
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
78.09
8.02
67.13
2.95
77.17
17.73
56.49
2.95
73.75
16.99
53.67
3.09
71.44
14.60
53.62
3.22
(Million Hundredweight)
70.68
71.25
72.20
12.73
12.27
12.38
54.60
55.49
56.20
3.35
3.48
3.62
73.28
12.62
56.91
3.75
74.27
12.99
57.38
3.90
75.28
13.40
57.84
4.03
76.58
13.71
58.70
4.18
Domestic Use
30.84
32.85
33.60
33.87
34.22
34.77
35.23
35.83
36.60
37.08
37.73
Exports
29.52
27.33
25.55
24.84
24.19
24.10
24.35
24.46
24.28
24.49
24.78
Residual
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Ending Stocks
17.73
16.99
14.60
12.73
12.27
12.38
12.62
12.99
13.40
13.71
14.07
Prices
Farm Price
Milled Rice, California
16.94
35.38
12.81
27.03
12.54
26.47
12.79
26.98
12.72
26.85
12.51
26.40
12.52
26.43
12.44
26.28
Area
Planted Area
Arkansas
California
Louisiana
Mississippi
Missouri
Texas
Harvested Area
13/14
14/15
0.66
(U.S. Dollars per Hundredweight)
12.91
12.86
12.89
27.22
27.11
27.17
78 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Corn
The pace of growth in ethanol use of corn slows. The RFS2 encourages increased ethanol use of corn until 2015.
Any additional growth will occur only if corn-based ethanol is competitive as a fuel.
Ethanol continues to account for an increasing share of corn use. Starting in 2017/18, more corn is used in ethanol
production than is fed directly to livestock.
U.S. livestock and poultry production has declined since 2008 and only modest growth is projected, limiting
growth in total feed consumption. Increased use of distillers grains and other coproducts of ethanol production
also limits the direct use of corn as a feed.
Reported feed and residual use includes a residual category that can vary from year to year for reasons unrelated
to actual feed consumption. This residual use helps explain the reported drop in feed and residual use in 2008/09
and the projected increase in 2009/10.
U.S. corn exports fell sharply in 2008/09, and the 2009/10 exports may increase less than shown in the table,
based on information that only became available after the baseline was completed. Projected corn exports increase
slowly after 2010/11, as U.S. producers satisfy a portion of growing global feed demand.
Higher corn prices have resulted in a large increase in producer market receipts since 2005/06. Corn production
expenses, which increased sharply in 2008/09, have moderated somewhat. With prices also falling, the
profitability of corn production declines in 2009/10 but remains above pre-2007 levels.
Projected corn acreage increases in 2010, as expected returns to corn production are favorable compared to those
for soybeans, wheat, and most other competing crops. Acreage increases further in later years but remains below
the 2007 peak.
Farm program payments are small relative to corn market receipts. Marketing loan benefits and countercyclical
payments will occur only if corn prices fall far below the projected levels. ACRE program participation rates are
expected to remain low.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 79
U.S. Corn Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
86.5
79.6
89.6
82.3
90.3
83.0
90.1
82.9
90.9
83.7
90.9
83.7
90.9
83.7
91.0
83.8
90.6
83.6
165.2
159.7
161.9
164.0
(Bushels per Acre)
166.1
168.3
170.5
172.8
175.0
177.0
178.9
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
14,834
1,673
13,151
10
14,882
1,723
13,149
10
15,048
1,601
13,438
10
15,183
1,588
13,585
10
(Million Bushels)
15,401
15,619
15,815
1,559
1,545
1,536
13,832
14,065
14,270
10
10
10
15,999
1,522
14,468
10
16,188
1,532
14,646
10
16,375
1,528
14,837
10
16,503
1,542
14,952
10
Domestic Use
Feed, Residual
Fuel Alcohol
HFCS
Seed
Food, Other
11,061
5,506
4,254
477
23
801
11,264
5,274
4,693
473
23
801
11,411
5,331
4,778
472
23
806
11,513
5,354
4,847
478
23
812
11,681
5,377
4,981
481
23
818
11,893
5,390
5,173
483
23
824
12,057
5,405
5,316
484
23
830
12,198
5,448
5,405
485
23
837
12,321
5,463
5,506
487
23
843
12,436
5,499
5,576
488
23
849
12,493
5,525
5,599
490
23
857
2,050
2,017
2,048
2,110
2,176
2,189
2,236
2,269
2,340
2,397
2,443
13,110
13,281
13,460
13,624
13,856
14,083
14,294
14,467
14,661
14,833
14,936
1,723
0
237
1,487
1,601
0
216
1,385
1,588
0
214
1,374
1,559
0
211
1,348
1,545
0
207
1,337
1,536
0
205
1,331
1,522
0
200
1,322
1,532
0
205
1,327
1,528
0
204
1,324
1,542
0
207
1,335
1,567
0
216
1,351
3.60
1.95
2.63
0.28
3.71
1.95
2.63
0.28
3.75
1.95
2.63
0.28
3.78
1.95
2.63
0.28
(U.S. Dollars per Bushel)
3.82
3.86
3.91
1.95
1.95
1.95
2.63
2.63
2.63
0.28
0.28
0.28
3.89
1.95
2.63
0.28
3.92
1.95
2.63
0.28
3.92
1.95
2.63
0.28
3.87
1.95
2.63
0.28
84.4
84.5
84.5
84.5
84.5
84.5
84.5
84.5
84.5
102.5
114.5
102.5
114.5
102.5
114.5
102.5
114.5
(Bushels per Acre)
102.5
102.5
102.5
114.5
114.5
114.5
102.5
114.5
102.5
114.5
102.5
114.5
102.5
114.5
ACRE Participation Rate
15.6
20.3
21.8
23.4
23.4
23.4
23.4
23.4
23.4
Returns and Payments
Gross Market Revenue
Variable Expenses
Market Net Returns
Marketing Loan Benefits
ACRE Payments
CCP Payment/Base
Direct Payment/Base
593.94
255.46
338.48
0.00
0.45
0.00
23.16
592.69
255.62
337.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
22.94
606.89
268.69
338.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
22.86
619.62
277.14
342.48
0.00
0.00
0.00
23.25
(U.S. Dollars per Acre)
635.15
649.50
666.27
284.09
291.91
303.18
351.06
357.59
363.09
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
23.25
23.25
23.25
672.66
310.58
362.09
0.00
0.00
0.00
23.25
685.08
315.71
369.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
23.25
693.10
321.02
372.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
23.25
692.41
326.01
366.39
0.00
0.00
0.00
23.25
Area
Planted Area
Harvested Area
Yield
Actual
Exports
Total Use
Ending Stocks
CCC Inventory
Under Loan
Other Stocks
Prices, Program Provisions
Farm Price
Loan Rate
Target Price
Direct Payment Rate
Base Area
Direct Payment Yield
CCP Yield
13/14
14/15
(Million Acres)
90.5
90.8
83.3
83.6
(Million Acres)
84.5
84.5
23.4
(Percent)
23.4
80 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Ethanol and Biofuel Policy Provisions
Projected growth in corn-based ethanol slows, but production still reaches 16 billion gallons by 2019/20.
Imported sugar-based ethanol is assumed to satisfy most of the RFS2 for advanced biofuels not met by cellulosic
ethanol or biodiesel.
Future cellulosic ethanol production growth is very uncertain. Projected supplies are well below the levels
envisioned in the EISA.
Given projected levels of gasoline consumption, less than 14 billion gallons of ethanol can be used in 10% blends.
To utilize the projected supplies of ethanol, use of higher-level blends must increase rapidly after 2011/12. The
baseline does not assume intermediate blends such as E-15.
For E-85 use to grow rapidly, there must be investment in flex-fuel vehicles and distribution infrastructure, and
the fuel must be priced competitively.
Because of EISA, different types of ethanol can command different prices.
Producer prices for advanced ethanol can exceed prices for conventional ethanol to generate the supplies required.
Cellulosic ethanol prices are effectively capped when EISA targets are not met.
When the RFS2 is binding, Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) take on value. RINs reflect the price biofuel
blenders would be willing to pay not to use the required quantities of biofuel.
For the first time, the baseline includes market projections for corn stover and switchgrass as feedstocks for
cellulosic ethanol production. Assuming some reductions in production, collection, and processing costs,
cellulosic ethanol production expands rapidly after 2015. Great uncertainty surrounds these projections for
markets that do not yet exist using technologies that have yet to be demonstrated on a commercial scale.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 81
U.S. Ethanol Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Supply
Production
From Corn
From Other Feedstocks
Cellulosic
Imports (Ethyl Alcohol)
11,869
11,620
248
1
326
13,174
12,888
278
8
393
13,539
13,191
297
50
419
Domestic Use
Disappearance
Conventional
Cellulosic
Other Advanced Ethanol
11,976
11,709
1
265
13,386
13,046
8
333
Exports (Ethyl Alcohol)
125
Ending Stocks
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
13,867
13,450
307
110
424
(Million Gallons)
14,392
15,098
15,682
13,896
14,505
14,984
315
329
341
181
265
357
473
658
1,129
16,116
15,314
346
456
1,561
16,590
15,680
350
560
2,036
17,109
15,962
352
795
2,507
17,704
16,107
355
1,241
2,756
13,837
13,427
50
359
14,164
13,690
110
364
14,734
14,140
181
413
15,623
14,761
265
598
16,681
15,255
357
1,069
17,540
15,583
456
1,501
18,486
15,950
560
1,976
19,469
16,227
795
2,447
20,306
16,369
1,241
2,696
115
102
108
104
100
102
112
115
120
121
723
788
808
826
853
886
914
938
963
991
1,024
Prices
Petroleum, Ref. Acquisition
Petroleum, W. Texas Interm.
61.98
66.07
68.93
74.15
75.53
81.16
79.85
85.73
(Dollars per Barrel)
83.12
86.63
90.30
89.19
92.89
96.78
92.82
99.43
94.45
101.13
94.43
101.09
93.67
100.26
Unl. Gasoline, FOB Omaha
Unleaded Gasoline, Retail
1.87
2.50
2.09
2.72
2.25
2.89
2.36
3.00
(Dollars per Gallon)
2.45
2.54
2.63
3.09
3.19
3.28
2.70
3.35
2.74
3.40
2.75
3.41
2.73
3.40
1.74
1.57
n.a.
n.a.
1.91
76.5%
1.76
1.59
3.30
1.76
1.94
71.5%
1.78
1.61
3.20
1.78
1.96
67.9%
1.78
1.60
3.14
1.78
1.96
65.4%
1.81
1.63
3.11
1.89
1.97
63.7%
1.87
1.69
3.11
2.18
2.01
63.1%
1.93
1.74
3.15
2.31
2.08
63.4%
1.92
1.73
3.18
2.39
2.12
63.3%
1.93
1.74
3.21
2.44
2.14
62.9%
1.94
1.75
3.28
2.50
2.15
63.1%
1.92
1.74
3.35
2.50
2.14
63.1%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Ethanol, FOB Omaha *
AMS Spot Plant, Iowa
Cellulosic *
Other Advanced *
Ethanol, Implied Retail
Ethanol/Gasoline Retail Ratio
13/14
14/15
* Rack prices.
U.S. Biofuel Policy Provisions
2009
2010
2011
2012
11,100
600
500
12,950
950
100
650
13,950
1,350
250
800
15,200
2,000
500
1,000
(Million Gallon)
16,550
18,150
20,500
2,750
3,750
5,500
1,000
1,750
3,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
22,250
7,250
4,250
1,000
24,000
9,000
5,500
1,000
26,000
11,000
7,000
1,000
28,000
13,000
8,500
1,000
Taxes and Tariffs
Ethanol Tax Credit
Ethanol Specific Tariff
0.45
0.54
0.45
0.54
0.45
0.54
0.45
0.54
(Dollars per Gallon)
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.54
0.54
0.54
0.45
0.54
0.45
0.54
0.45
0.54
0.45
0.54
Ethanol Ad Valorem Tariff
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
Renewable Fuel Standard
Advanced Biofuels
Cellulosic Ethanol
Biodiesel
(Percent)
2.50
2.50
82 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Corn Products
Rapid growth in dry mill ethanol production has resulted in growing supplies of distillers grains. Slower projected
ethanol production growth results in slower growth in distillers grain production.
The table reports the sum of wet and dried distillers grains on a dry-equivalent basis.
Most of the product is fed to U.S. livestock, primarily beef and dairy cattle, but exports have increased rapidly.
Over the long run, prices of distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) and corn gluten feed generally move
with corn prices.
Monthly DDGS prices in 2008 and 2009 dipped well below corn prices as increasing supplies were made
available to livestock producers. Projected DDGS prices increase relative to corn in 2009/10 and remain around
90%-95% of corn prices in the baseline.
Corn oil production from wet mill plants has been steady or declining in recent years. Wet mill plants produce
ethanol, HFCS, and other products. The baseline projects an increase in the share of dry mill ethanol plants that
fractionate corn to separate the corn oil. The increasing production of corn oil from fractionation puts downward
pressure on corn oil prices relative to prices of soybean oil.
Per capita HFCS domestic use has been declining, in part because of reduced consumption of caloric soft drinks.
HFCS exports are projected to increase as Mexico imports more HFCS to use in its domestic soft drink industry.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 83
U.S. Corn Products Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
High-Fructose Corn Syrup
Production
Domestic Use
Net Exports
8,755
8,194
561
8,702
8,038
664
8,710
7,958
752
Domestic Use per Capita
52.72
51.22
50.22
Price, 42% Midwest
HFCS price/refined sugar price
26.19
61.0%
24.94
75.6%
25.15
77.8%
Distillers, Brewers Grains
Production (Dry Equivalent)
Domestic Use
Net Exports
33,514
27,339
6,176
37,064
30,621
6,442
Price, Lawrenceburg, IN
DDGS Price/Corn Price
121.36
94.5%
Corn Gluten Feed
Production
Domestic Use
Net Exports
Price, 21%, IL Points
CGF price/corn price
Corn Gluten Meal
Production
Domestic Use
Net Exports
Price, 60%, IL Points
CGM price/soy meal price
Corn Oil
Production
Domestic Use
Net Exports
Ending Stocks
Chicago Price
Corn oil price/soy oil price
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Thousand Tons, Oct.-Sept. Year)
8,824
8,903
8,956
8,987
7,985
7,990
7,984
7,965
839
913
971
1,021
9,034
7,971
1,064
9,078
7,972
1,106
9,126
7,977
1,150
9,178
7,983
1,195
(Pounds per Capita, Oct.-Sept. Year)
49.91
49.46
48.96
48.37
47.95
47.50
47.08
46.67
(Cents per Pound, Oct.-Sept. Year)
25.57
25.84
26.32
26.66
77.7%
78.2%
78.8%
79.6%
26.73
80.0%
26.85
80.4%
27.00
80.8%
27.03
81.1%
37,722
31,031
6,690
(Thousand Tons, Sept.-Aug. Year)
38,253
39,325
40,835
41,953
31,321
32,171
33,462
34,382
6,932
7,154
7,373
7,571
42,643
34,883
7,760
43,419
35,475
7,945
43,940
35,808
8,132
44,075
35,754
8,321
120.79
91.1%
123.07
91.9%
(Dollars per Ton, Sept.-Aug. Year)
124.60
126.32
127.76
129.44
92.3%
92.5%
92.7%
92.8%
129.93
93.5%
130.99
93.7%
131.58
94.1%
131.26
95.0%
7,803
7,008
794
7,842
7,077
765
7,838
7,106
732
(Thousand Tons, Sept.-Aug. Year)
7,859
7,881
7,916
7,932
7,158
7,209
7,271
7,318
701
672
644
614
7,945
7,356
589
7,965
7,403
561
7,987
7,452
536
8,004
7,490
514
83.65
65.1%
83.75
63.2%
85.16
63.6%
(Dollars per Ton, Sept.-Aug. Year)
85.93
87.01
87.85
88.88
63.7%
63.7%
63.7%
63.7%
88.75
63.9%
89.28
63.8%
89.34
63.9%
88.56
64.1%
2,053
1,270
783
2,064
1,264
800
2,063
1,255
807
(Thousand Tons, Sept.-Aug. Year)
2,068
2,074
2,083
2,087
1,252
1,248
1,248
1,242
816
826
835
846
2,091
1,235
856
2,096
1,230
866
2,102
1,226
876
2,106
1,220
886
454.62
155.4%
429.83
158.2%
438.06
157.3%
(Dollars per Ton, Sept.-Aug. Year)
439.62
443.23
446.79
447.57
448.34
157.2% 156.8% 156.4% 156.4% 156.3%
449.42
156.3%
449.73
156.3%
450.37
156.2%
2,560
1,807
761
197
2,648
1,874
768
204
2,707
1,949
764
198
3,078
2,302
775
208
3,150
2,373
776
209
3,220
2,440
778
211
3,281
2,497
781
213
36.96
100.3%
36.16
99.9%
38.56
99.4%
41.77
97.5%
42.61
97.2%
43.27
96.9%
43.65
96.7%
(Million Pounds, Oct.-Sept. Year)
2,772
2,845
2,932
3,009
2,005
2,073
2,157
2,234
766
769
772
773
200
203
206
207
(Cents per Pound, Oct.-Sept. Year)
39.08
39.30
39.89
40.85
99.0%
98.6%
98.1%
97.8%
84 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Corn Processing
Lower ethanol prices severely squeezed ethanol plant margins in 2008/09, and lower corn prices have slightly
improved profitability at dry mill ethanol plants in 2009/10.
Ethanol producer net operating returns remain far lower than during the 2005-2007 period, contributing to a sharp
slowdown in ethanol plant capacity expansion. Actual net returns to ethanol production depend on petroleum
prices, the weather, policy, and other factors that are difficult to predict. For example, high petroleum prices may
raise ethanol prices and net returns, while a drought could raise corn prices and reduce ethanol net returns.
Lower returns reduced corn ethanol capacity utilization rates in 2008/09, and some plants remained idle in the first
few months of the 2009/10 marketing year. From 2010 to 2019, net returns over operating costs average about
$0.30 per gallon. Operating costs exclude capital costs; net profits are lower. Utilization rates increase in 2010/11
in response to more favorable margins.
The pattern of net returns for wet mill ethanol plants over time is very similar to that for dry mill plants. Capital
costs and average returns over operating costs generally are higher for wet mill plants than for dry mill plants.
Ethanol use accounts for most of the growth in food and industrial use of corn.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 85
U.S. Corn Processing
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Corn Food, Industrial Use
Fuel Alcohol
HFCS
Glucose and Dextrose
Starch
Beverage Alcohol
Cereals and Other
Total
4,254
477
237
234
135
194
5,531
4,693
473
234
236
136
195
5,967
4,778
472
235
238
137
197
6,057
4,847
478
236
240
138
199
6,137
(Million Bushels)
4,981
5,173
5,316
481
483
484
237
238
239
242
244
247
139
140
141
200
202
204
6,280
6,480
6,629
5,405
485
240
249
142
206
6,727
5,506
487
241
251
143
207
6,835
5,576
488
242
254
145
209
6,914
5,599
490
243
257
146
211
6,945
Corn Dry Milling
Corn Dry Milled for Ethanol
(Share of Total Ethanol)
(Share Fractionating)
3,833
90.1%
9.5%
4,260
90.8%
10.9%
4,348
91.0%
12.5%
4,422
91.2%
14.1%
4,893
92.0%
18.6%
4,985
92.2%
20.0%
5,087
92.4%
21.4%
5,159
92.5%
22.7%
5,184
92.6%
24.0%
Yields per Bushel of Corn
Ethanol (Gallons)
Distillers Grains (Pounds)
2.74
16.86
2.75
16.83
2.77
16.79
2.78
16.75
(Units per Bushel)
2.80
2.81
2.83
16.72
16.68
16.65
2.84
16.62
2.86
16.59
2.87
16.56
2.89
16.53
Costs and Returns
Ethanol Value
Distillers Grains Value
Corn Cost
Fuel and Electricity Cost
Other Operating Costs
Net Operating Return
1.74
0.37
-1.31
-0.16
-0.33
0.30
1.76
0.37
-1.35
-0.19
-0.33
0.27
1.78
0.37
-1.36
-0.20
-0.33
0.26
1.78
0.38
-1.36
-0.20
-0.33
0.26
(Dollars per Gallon)
1.81
1.87
0.38
0.38
-1.37
-1.37
-0.21
-0.23
-0.34
-0.34
0.27
0.31
1.93
0.38
-1.38
-0.25
-0.34
0.33
1.92
0.38
-1.37
-0.26
-0.35
0.32
1.93
0.38
-1.37
-0.26
-0.35
0.33
1.94
0.38
-1.36
-0.27
-0.35
0.33
1.92
0.38
-1.34
-0.28
-0.36
0.32
Corn Wet Milling
Corn Wet Milled for Ethanol
(Share of Total Ethanol)
Other Corn Wet Milling
Total Corn Wet Milling
421
9.9%
948
1,369
433
9.2%
943
1,376
430
9.0%
945
1,375
425
8.8%
954
1,379
(Million Bushels)
422
423
423
8.5%
8.2%
8.0%
960
965
969
1,383
1,389
1,392
420
7.8%
974
1,394
419
7.6%
979
1,397
417
7.5%
984
1,401
415
7.4%
989
1,404
Yields per Bushel of Corn
Ethanol (Gallons)
Gluten Feed (Pounds)
Gluten Meal (Pounds)
Corn Oil (Pounds)
2.69
11.40
3.00
1.67
2.70
11.40
3.00
1.67
2.71
11.40
3.00
1.67
2.71
11.40
3.00
1.67
(Units per Bushel)
2.72
2.73
2.74
11.40
11.40
11.40
3.00
3.00
3.00
1.67
1.67
1.67
2.74
11.40
3.00
1.67
2.75
11.40
3.00
1.67
2.76
11.40
3.00
1.67
2.77
11.40
3.00
1.67
Costs and Returns
Ethanol Value
Gluten Feed Value
Gluten Meal Value
Corn Oil Value
Corn Cost
Fuel and Electricity Cost
Other Operating Costs
Net Operating Return
1.74
0.18
0.25
0.23
-1.34
-0.13
-0.52
0.41
1.76
0.18
0.24
0.22
-1.38
-0.15
-0.52
0.36
1.78
0.18
0.24
0.24
-1.39
-0.16
-0.53
0.37
1.78
0.18
0.24
0.24
-1.39
-0.16
-0.53
0.36
(Dollars per Gallon)
1.81
1.87
0.18
0.18
0.24
0.25
0.24
0.24
-1.41
-1.41
-0.17
-0.18
-0.53
-0.54
0.37
0.41
1.92
0.18
0.25
0.25
-1.42
-0.20
-0.55
0.43
1.93
0.19
0.25
0.26
-1.42
-0.21
-0.55
0.43
1.94
0.18
0.24
0.26
-1.42
-0.21
-0.56
0.43
1.92
0.18
0.24
0.26
-1.40
-0.22
-0.56
0.43
4,559
91.5%
15.6%
14/15
4,749
91.8%
17.1%
1.93
0.19
0.25
0.25
-1.43
-0.20
-0.54
0.43
86 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Sorghum
Sorghum acreage declined sharply in 2009 as sorghum prices retreated from their 2008 peak. Projected sorghum
area planted increases in 2010 but remains well below the 2008 level.
Food and industrial use of sorghum has increased because of expanded ethanol production. The baseline projects
continued moderate growth in ethanol use of sorghum. The grain sorghum projections do not incorporate any
potential use of sweet sorghum as a biofuel feedstock.
In 2008/09, large sorghum supplies led to low sorghum prices relative to corn prices and a sharp expansion of
sorghum feed use. Reduced sorghum supplies in 2009/10 have resulted in higher sorghum prices relative to corn
and a reduction in sorghum feed use. In the baseline, sorghum prices move with corn prices so that sorghum
continues to be competitive in feed rations.
Sorghum export demand has weakened since NAFTA implementation eliminated remaining barriers to Mexican
corn imports from the United States.
Higher yields contribute to an increase in sorghum market returns per acre in 2009/10. Lower fuel and fertilizer
expenses reduced sorghum production costs in 2009/10, resulting in higher net returns.
Over the next 10 years, projected sorghum variable expenses increase slightly faster than sorghum market
receipts. This leads to a reduction in sorghum planted area.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 87
U.S. Sorghum Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Area
Planted Area
Harvested Area
6.63
5.52
7.37
6.22
7.19
6.07
7.02
5.92
(Million Acres)
6.95
6.89
5.85
5.80
6.84
5.74
6.78
5.69
6.75
5.66
6.73
5.63
6.65
5.55
Yield
Actual
69.4
64.2
64.3
64.4
(Bushels per Acre)
64.5
64.6
64.8
65.0
65.2
65.2
65.3
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
438
55
383
0
454
55
399
0
448
58
391
0
439
58
381
0
(Million Bushels)
434
430
56
56
377
375
0
0
428
55
372
0
425
55
370
0
423
55
369
0
422
55
367
0
418
55
363
0
Domestic Use
Feed, Residual
Food, Seed, Ind.
243
149
94
258
157
101
263
156
106
257
148
109
253
142
111
251
137
114
248
130
117
242
123
119
237
117
120
230
109
120
232
111
122
Exports
140
138
128
125
125
124
125
128
131
137
129
Total Use
383
396
390
382
378
375
373
370
368
367
361
55
0
1
54
58
0
1
57
58
0
1
57
56
0
1
56
56
0
1
55
55
0
1
55
55
0
0
54
55
0
0
55
55
0
0
55
55
0
0
55
57
0
0
56
3.26
1.95
2.57
0.35
3.34
1.95
2.63
0.35
3.33
1.95
2.63
0.35
3.37
1.95
2.63
0.35
3.55
1.95
2.63
0.35
3.57
1.95
2.63
0.35
3.62
1.95
2.63
0.35
3.66
1.95
2.63
0.35
3.58
1.95
2.63
0.35
11.50
11.51
11.51
11.52
11.52
11.52
11.52
11.52
11.52
Direct Payment Yield
CCP Yield
56.7
58.4
56.7
58.4
56.7
58.4
56.7
58.4
(Bushels per Acre)
56.7
56.7
56.7
58.4
58.4
58.4
56.7
58.4
56.7
58.4
56.7
58.4
56.7
58.4
ACRE Participation Rate
Sorghum/corn price ratio
7.3
90.6
9.5
90.0
10.2
88.9
11.0
89.3
11.0
89.7
11.0
90.7
11.0
91.6
11.0
92.3
11.0
93.3
11.0
92.5
Returns and Payments
Gross Market Revenue
Variable Expenses
Market Net Returns
Marketing Loan Benefits
ACRE Payments
CCP Payment/Base
Direct Payment/Base
226.09
133.04
93.05
0.00
0.73
0.00
16.29
214.23
136.42
77.81
0.00
0.19
0.00
16.22
214.30
144.44
69.86
0.00
0.00
0.00
16.19
217.15
149.64
67.51
0.00
0.00
0.00
16.50
(U.S. Dollars per Acre)
221.05
224.46
229.77
153.71
157.98
163.74
67.34
66.47
66.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
16.50
16.50
16.50
231.90
167.99
63.91
0.00
0.00
0.00
16.50
235.60
170.98
64.62
0.00
0.00
0.00
16.50
238.40
173.95
64.45
0.00
0.00
0.00
16.50
233.63
176.21
57.43
0.00
0.00
0.00
16.50
Ending Stocks
CCC Inventory
Under Loan
Other Stocks
Prices, Program Provisions
Farm Price
Loan Rate
Target Price
Direct Payment Rate
Base Area
13/14
14/15
(Dollars per Bushel)
3.43
3.47
1.95
1.95
2.63
2.63
0.35
0.35
(Million Acres)
11.52
11.52
(Percent)
11.0
90.0
88 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Barley
Strong international demand for barley and other grains contributed to a large increase in barley prices in 2007/08,
and U.S. barley exports reached their highest level since 2000/01. Weaker international markets have reduced
demand for U.S. barley exports. As a result, the United States becomes a net importer of barley in 2009/10.
Most U.S. barley is used in beer production. The share of the U.S. barley crop devoted to feed uses has declined
dramatically in recent years, and further reductions are projected.
U.S. barley carryover stocks have increased sharply since 2007/08. This is likely to result in lower prices for
malting barley contracts, and it has already resulted in sharply lower prices for feed barley.
Barley net returns remain strong in 2009/10, as lower prices are offset by higher yields and lower production
expenses. A further decline in market prices and a return to normal yields results in lower net returns in 2010/11.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 89
U.S. Barley Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Area
Planted Area
Harvested Area
3.57
3.11
3.65
3.19
3.40
2.97
3.42
2.99
(Million Acres)
3.40
3.36
2.98
2.94
3.31
2.89
3.24
2.84
3.19
2.79
3.13
2.74
3.08
2.69
Yield
Actual
73.0
67.3
68.0
68.6
(Bushels per Acre)
69.2
69.8
70.4
71.0
71.7
72.3
72.9
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
341
89
227
25
343
114
215
15
319
100
202
17
313
89
205
19
(Million Bushels)
313
312
88
88
206
205
19
19
310
88
203
19
308
88
201
19
307
88
200
19
306
89
198
19
305
89
196
19
Domestic Use
Feed, Residual
Food, Seed, Ind.
222
52
170
224
51
173
215
42
173
213
40
172
212
40
173
211
39
173
209
37
172
207
35
173
206
33
173
204
31
173
203
29
174
5
19
15
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
12
Total Use
227
243
230
226
225
224
222
220
218
217
215
Ending Stocks
CCC Inventory
Under Loan
Other Stocks
114
0
3
111
100
0
9
91
89
0
7
83
88
0
6
82
88
0
5
83
88
0
5
83
88
0
5
83
88
0
5
84
89
0
5
84
89
0
5
84
90
0
5
85
Prices, Program Provisions
All Barley Farm Price
Feed Barley Price
Loan Rate
Target Price
Direct Payment
4.46
2.82
1.85
2.24
0.24
3.90
2.83
1.95
2.63
0.24
4.06
2.92
1.95
2.63
0.24
4.17
2.98
1.95
2.63
0.24
(Dollars per Bushel)
4.21
4.24
3.02
3.05
1.95
1.95
2.63
2.63
0.24
0.24
4.27
3.08
1.95
2.63
0.24
4.25
3.07
1.95
2.63
0.24
4.26
3.08
1.95
2.63
0.24
4.26
3.08
1.95
2.63
0.24
4.21
3.04
1.95
2.63
0.24
Base Area
8.35
8.36
8.36
8.37
(Million Acres)
8.37
8.37
8.37
8.37
8.37
8.37
8.37
Direct Payment Yield
CCP Yield
47.4
48.5
47.4
48.5
47.4
48.5
47.4
48.5
(Bushels per Acre)
47.4
47.4
47.4
48.5
48.5
48.5
47.4
48.5
47.4
48.5
47.4
48.5
47.4
48.5
ACRE Participation Rate
14.1
18.3
19.7
21.2
21.2
21.2
21.2
21.2
21.2
21.2
Returns and Payments
Gross Market Revenue
Variable Expenses
Market Net Returns
Marketing Loan Benefits
ACRE Payments
CCP Payment/Base
Direct Payment/Base
325.92
125.45
200.48
0.00
0.00
0.00
9.21
262.17
126.48
135.68
0.00
3.13
0.00
9.13
275.97
133.05
142.92
0.00
0.00
0.00
9.10
285.89
137.35
148.54
0.00
0.00
0.00
9.26
(U.S. Dollars per Acre)
291.56
295.99
300.59
140.88
144.70
149.94
150.68
151.29
150.65
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
9.26
9.26
9.26
301.99
153.61
148.38
0.00
0.00
0.00
9.26
305.57
156.27
149.29
0.00
0.00
0.00
9.26
307.86
158.99
148.87
0.00
0.00
0.00
9.26
307.32
161.39
145.93
0.00
0.00
0.00
9.26
Exports
13/14
14/15
(Percent)
21.15
90 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Oats
The five years of consecutive declines in U.S. oats production were temporarily reversed in 2009 because of
increasing area and strong yields. In subsequent years, oats production is projected to decline as area contracts
over time.
Imports exceed domestic production, and this pattern is expected to persist over the next 10 years.
As with other grains, oat prices have retreated since peaking in the summer of 2008. The season-average farm
price falls by one-third in 2009/10.
Food and industrial uses of oats are projected to remain stable in per capita terms. After an increase in 2009/10,
feed use of oats resumes its long-term decline.
In spite of a decline in variable production expenses, net returns to oat producers also decline in 2009/10. Over the
next decade, projected oat market receipts and production expenses increase at similar rates, leaving average net
returns essentially flat. Reported returns do not include income from sale of oats straw.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 91
U.S. Oat Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Area
Planted Area
Harvested Area
3.40
1.38
3.32
1.41
3.36
1.42
3.32
1.40
(Million Acres)
3.27
3.22
1.37
1.35
3.18
1.32
3.13
1.30
3.09
1.28
3.04
1.25
3.01
1.24
Yield
Actual
67.5
63.6
64.0
64.3
(Bushels per Acre)
64.6
64.9
65.3
65.6
65.9
66.3
66.6
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
272
84
93
95
263
69
90
104
261
65
91
105
259
64
90
106
(Million Bushels)
258
257
63
63
89
87
106
106
257
63
86
107
256
63
85
107
255
64
84
107
255
64
83
108
255
64
83
108
Domestic Use
Feed, Residual
Food, Seed, Ind.
200
124
75
194
118
76
193
117
77
192
115
77
191
113
78
191
112
79
190
110
79
189
109
80
188
107
81
187
106
81
186
104
82
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
203
198
197
196
195
194
193
192
191
191
190
69
0
0
68
65
0
0
64
64
0
0
63
63
0
0
63
63
0
0
63
63
0
0
63
63
0
0
63
64
0
0
63
64
0
0
64
64
0
0
64
65
0
0
64
2.07
1.33
1.44
0.02
2.20
1.39
1.79
0.02
2.26
1.39
1.79
0.02
2.29
1.39
1.79
0.02
(Dollars per Bushel)
2.32
2.35
1.39
1.39
1.79
1.79
0.02
0.02
2.37
1.39
1.79
0.02
2.38
1.39
1.79
0.02
2.40
1.39
1.79
0.02
2.41
1.39
1.79
0.02
2.41
1.39
1.79
0.02
Base Area
2.95
2.96
2.96
2.96
(Million Acres)
2.96
2.96
2.96
2.96
2.96
2.96
2.96
Direct Payment Yield
CCP Yield
48.3
49.8
48.3
49.8
48.3
49.8
48.3
49.8
(Bushels per Acre)
48.3
48.3
48.3
49.8
49.8
49.8
48.3
49.8
48.3
49.8
48.3
49.8
48.3
49.8
ACRE Participation Rate
5.9
7.7
8.3
8.9
8.9
8.9
8.9
8.9
8.9
Returns and Payments
Gross Market Revenue
Variable Expenses
Market Net Returns
Marketing Loan Benefits
ACRE Payments
CCP Payment/Base
Direct Payment/Base
139.42
94.23
45.19
0.00
0.48
0.00
0.95
139.72
94.33
45.39
0.00
0.31
0.00
0.95
144.56
99.28
45.28
0.00
0.06
0.00
0.95
147.36
102.46
44.90
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.97
(U.S. Dollars per Acre)
149.97
152.31
154.95
105.02
107.91
112.01
44.94
44.40
42.94
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.97
0.97
0.97
156.30
114.82
41.48
0.00
0.03
0.00
0.97
158.28
116.79
41.48
0.00
0.03
0.00
0.97
159.85
118.80
41.05
0.00
0.03
0.00
0.97
160.32
120.57
39.75
0.00
0.04
0.00
0.97
Exports
Total Use
Ending Stocks
CCC Inventory
Under Loan
Other Stocks
Prices, Program Provisions
Farm Price
Loan Rate
Target Price
Direct Payment
13/14
8.9
14/15
(Percent)
8.9
92 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Hay
Tight hay supplies led to record hay prices in 2008/09. As hay supplies increase relative to cattle numbers, hay
prices fall in 2009/10 and remain far below the 2008/09 level in later years.
Hay yields per acre increased for the third straight year in 2009, and a further modest increase in hay yields and
production is projected for 2010.
Hay stocks continue to rebuild in 2009/10 and 2010/11, putting downward pressure on hay prices.
Lower hay prices encourage a modest increase in hay disappearance for the next several years. Beginning in
2014/15, increasing cattle numbers contribute to growth in hay disappearance and a slight recovery in hay prices.
Average projected hay production and disappearance are almost the same after 2010/11. Deviations from average
weather and other factors will result in variability not reflected in these projections.
Hay markets are more fragmented than markets for most other agricultural commodities, so trends in national
average prices may not reflect local conditions.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 93
U.S. Hay Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
59.8
60.1
60.0
59.8
Yield
2.47
2.49
2.50
2.51
Supply
Production
Beginning Stocks
169.5
147.4
22.1
172.4
149.8
22.6
173.9
150.0
23.9
174.5
150.0
24.4
Disappearance
146.9
148.5
149.4
Ending Stocks
22.6
23.9
114.95
124.42
110.12
118.92
Prices
All-Hay (crop year)
Alfalfa (calendar year)
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Million Acres)
59.6
59.5
59.3
59.3
59.2
59.2
59.2
(Tons per Acre)
2.52
2.53
2.54
2.54
2.55
2.56
2.57
(Million Tons)
174.9
175.2
150.1
150.2
24.8
25.0
175.6
150.5
25.1
175.9
150.8
25.1
176.1
151.2
24.9
176.4
151.6
24.8
176.6
151.9
24.7
149.7
149.9
150.1
150.5
151.0
151.3
151.7
152.0
24.4
24.8
25.0
25.1
25.1
24.9
24.8
24.7
24.6
108.81
115.62
107.97
114.37
(U.S. Dollars per Ton)
108.07
108.40
109.94
114.04
114.33
115.61
111.88
117.76
113.86
120.14
115.68
122.43
117.16
124.39
94 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Soybeans and Soybean Products
Record soybean production results in only a modest increase in soybean stocks in 2009/10, as soybean use also
hits record highs.
A slight reduction in area and a return to more normal yields result in slightly lower projected soybean production
in 2010/11. Projected average stocks and prices are fairly stable after 2010/11, but low stocks relative to use
suggest continued price volatility.
After a significant decline in 2008/09, soybean crush grows steadily, supported by increasing use of both soybean
meal and soybean oil.
Strong Chinese demand and the weather-reduced Argentine crop harvested in early 2009 result in record U.S.
soybean exports in 2009/10. Increased South American supplies result in lower U.S. exports in 2010/11 and limit
U.S. soybean export growth in future years.
High yields result in an increase in soybean net returns per acre in 2009/10, in spite of slightly lower soybean
prices, while lower projected soybean prices and yields reduce soybean net returns in 2010/11.
Soybean returns must remain well above pre-2007 levels for soybeans to maintain competitiveness with corn
production.
Food uses of soybean oil are expected to decline in 2009/10 for the fifth straight year. The projections assume
future per capita consumption is fairly stable.
After falling sharply in 2008/09, soybean oil prices increase with growth in biodiesel use and strength in global
vegetable oil demand. Projected soybean oil prices remain well below the 2007/08 record.
Soybean oil exports increase in 2009/10 but dip in 2010/11 as competitor supplies increase.
Future growth in biodiesel use of soybean oil depends on biodiesel demand and the ability to expand biodiesel
production from other feedstocks.
Reduced livestock and poultry production and competition from distillers grains have limited domestic use of
soybean meal in recent years. Weak demand from the livestock sector contributes to lower soybean meal prices in
2009/10 and 2010/11. Projected growth in soybean meal use is a result of resumed growth in poultry production,
continued moderate soybean meal prices, and slower growth in distillers grain use.
Soybean meal exports increase slowly because of continued competition from other suppliers.
Projected soybean meal prices remain fairly steady in later years, as production and use expand in tandem.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 95
U.S. Soybean Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Area
Planted Area
Harvested Area
77.5
76.4
76.6
75.7
76.1
75.2
76.9
76.0
(Million Acres)
76.8
77.0
75.9
76.1
77.3
76.4
77.5
76.6
77.8
76.9
78.0
77.1
78.3
77.5
Yield
Actual
44.0
42.4
42.8
43.2
(Bushels per Acre)
43.6
44.0
44.4
44.8
45.2
45.6
45.9
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
3,509
138
3,361
10
3,485
264
3,211
10
3,513
285
3,218
10
3,565
270
3,285
10
(Million Bushels)
3,595
3,631
3,673
272
271
269
3,313
3,350
3,394
10
10
10
3,714
269
3,435
10
3,758
268
3,480
10
3,794
268
3,516
10
3,838
268
3,560
10
Domestic Use
Crush
Seed, Residual
1,872
1,709
163
1,946
1,784
163
1,983
1,820
163
2,022
1,858
164
2,054
1,888
166
2,086
1,918
168
2,121
1,952
169
2,157
1,987
171
2,192
2,020
172
2,226
2,052
174
2,261
2,086
176
Exports
1,374
1,254
1,260
1,270
1,269
1,276
1,283
1,289
1,299
1,300
1,308
Total Use
3,245
3,200
3,243
3,293
3,324
3,362
3,404
3,446
3,490
3,526
3,569
Ending Stocks
CCC Inventory
Under Loan
Other Stocks
264
0
12
252
285
0
16
269
270
0
13
256
272
0
14
259
271
0
13
258
269
0
13
256
269
0
13
256
268
0
13
255
268
0
13
255
268
0
13
255
268
0
14
255
Prices, Program Provisions
Farm Price
Illinois Processor Price
Loan Rate
Target Price
Direct Payment
9.42
9.85
5.00
5.80
0.44
8.75
9.20
5.00
6.00
0.44
9.28
9.71
5.00
6.00
0.44
9.35
9.78
5.00
6.00
0.44
(Dollars per Bushel)
9.49
9.67
9.79
9.92
10.09
10.21
5.00
5.00
5.00
6.00
6.00
6.00
0.44
0.44
0.44
9.91
10.32
5.00
6.00
0.44
10.05
10.46
5.00
6.00
0.44
10.14
10.55
5.00
6.00
0.44
10.20
10.61
5.00
6.00
0.44
Base Area
50.6
50.7
50.7
50.7
(Million Acres)
50.7
50.7
50.7
50.7
50.7
50.7
50.7
Direct Payment Yield
CCP Yield
30.9
34.2
30.9
34.2
30.9
34.2
30.9
34.2
(Bushels per Acre)
30.9
30.9
30.9
34.2
34.2
34.2
30.9
34.2
30.9
34.2
30.9
34.2
30.9
34.2
ACRE Participation Rate
15.3
19.9
21.4
23.0
23.0
23.0
23.0
23.0
23.0
23.0
Returns and Payments
Gross Market Revenue
Variable Expenses
Market Net Returns
Marketing Loan Benefits
ACRE Payments
CCP Payment/Base
Direct Payment/Base
414.50
121.72
292.78
0.00
0.00
0.00
10.98
371.36
125.24
246.11
0.00
2.36
0.00
10.87
397.21
130.94
266.27
0.00
0.00
0.00
10.84
404.12
135.43
268.69
0.00
0.00
0.00
11.03
(U.S. Dollars per Acre)
414.08
425.52
434.91
139.20
143.08
147.35
274.89
282.45
287.56
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
11.03
11.03
11.03
444.02
150.72
293.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
11.03
454.51
153.48
301.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
11.03
462.14
156.25
305.89
0.00
0.00
0.00
11.03
468.47
158.60
309.87
0.00
0.00
0.00
11.03
Other indicators
48% Meal Price/ton
Oil Price/cwt
Crushing Margin/bu
292.49
36.83
1.17
271.74
36.21
1.34
278.49
38.81
1.28
279.74
39.47
1.32
286.78
42.85
1.33
287.62
43.84
1.33
287.81
44.64
1.33
288.27
45.14
1.34
2.62
2.36
2.48
2.47
2.55
2.57
2.59
2.64
Bean/Corn Ratio
13/14
14/15
(Percent)
23.0
(U.S. Dollars)
282.70
285.66
286.23
39.86
40.64
41.78
1.30
1.28
1.31
(Index)
2.48
2.51
2.51
96 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
40,772
235
40,397
140
42,528
240
42,147
140
43,401
256
43,005
140
Domestic Use
30,646
31,768
9,885
Exports
Total Use
Ending Stocks
Prices, 48% Protein
Decatur
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
44,306
257
43,909
140
(Thousand Tons)
45,016
45,716
46,517
260
262
263
44,616
45,314
46,115
140
140
140
47,349
265
46,943
140
48,132
267
47,725
140
48,902
268
48,493
140
49,699
270
49,290
140
32,198
32,965
33,653
34,248
34,945
35,484
36,027
36,592
37,006
10,503
10,945
11,081
11,102
11,205
11,307
11,597
11,837
12,040
12,422
40,532
42,271
43,144
44,046
44,754
45,453
46,252
47,082
47,864
48,632
49,429
240
256
257
260
262
263
265
267
268
270
271
292.49
271.74
278.49
279.74
(U.S. Dollars per Ton)
282.70
285.66
286.23
286.78
287.62
287.81
288.27
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 97
U.S. Soybean Oil Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
21,889
2,742
19,072
75
22,487
2,110
20,301
75
22,955
2,166
20,714
75
Domestic Use
Food Use
Biodiesel Use
16,557
14,222
2,335
17,639
14,562
3,077
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
23,337
2,112
21,150
75
(Million Pounds)
23,683
24,044
24,430
2,118
2,142
2,142
21,490
21,827
22,212
75
75
75
24,814
2,128
22,612
75
25,169
2,105
22,988
75
25,514
2,081
23,358
75
25,883
2,066
23,742
75
18,114
14,459
3,655
18,518
14,608
3,911
18,609
14,792
3,817
19,014
14,934
4,080
19,691
15,041
4,650
20,153
15,171
4,982
20,519
15,309
5,210
20,854
15,474
5,380
21,078
15,666
5,412
3,222
2,681
2,728
2,701
2,932
2,889
2,611
2,556
2,568
2,594
2,743
19,779
20,321
20,843
21,219
21,541
21,902
22,302
22,709
23,088
23,448
23,821
Ending Stocks
2,110
2,166
2,112
2,118
2,142
2,142
2,128
2,105
2,081
2,066
2,062
Prices
Decatur
36.83
36.21
38.81
39.47
(U.S. Cents per Pound)
39.86
40.64
41.78
42.85
43.84
44.64
45.14
Exports
Total Use
13/14
14/15
98 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Biodiesel
The projections assume that the $1-per-gallon tax credit is extended and the authority to waive the EISA biodiesel
mandate is not utilized. The projection is consistent with the recent EPA ruling that a 1-billion-gallon mandate
is carried forward after 2012, and soybean-oil-based biodiesel continues to satisfy greenhouse gas reductions
required under the bio-based diesel mandate.
Reduced profitability led to a sharp contraction in biodiesel production in 2008/09. Soybean-oil-based biodiesel
fell sharply, while biodiesel production from other fats and oils held steady.
Projected production increases to satisfy the biodiesel and advanced biofuel mandates under the RFS2. Excess
existing production capacity keeps margins low even as biodiesel use grows with the mandate. Existing capacity
is enough to meet the 1-billion-gallon mandate, and narrow margins discourage growth in biodiesel capacity.
Domestic use generally expands with the biodiesel RFS2 until 2013/14. After 2013/14, some biodiesel is
consumed in excess of the biodiesel RFS2 to help satisfy the advanced biofuel mandate.
The EU tariff on U.S. biodiesel has resulted in sharply lower U.S. biodiesel exports. Rising EU biodiesel prices
result in some U.S. biodiesel exports at the end of the projection period, in spite of the tariff.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 99
U.S. Biodiesel Sector
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Biodiesel Supply and Use
Production
From Soybean Oil
From Other Fats and Oils
Net Exports
Domestic Use
644
303
341
30
614
787
400
387
7
780
925
475
451
0
925
1,010
508
502
9
1,001
Fuel Prices
Biodiesel Rack
#2 Diesel, Refiner Sales
#2 Diesel, Retail
Tax credit, pre-consumer
Tax Credit, Other Feedstocks
3.66
1.92
2.68
1.00
1.00
3.69
2.15
2.92
1.00
1.00
3.93
2.31
3.08
1.00
1.00
3.66
0.03
-2.84
-0.55
0.30
3.69
0.03
-2.79
-0.56
0.37
3.93
0.03
-2.99
-0.56
0.41
Costs and Returns
Biodiesel Value
Glycerin Value
Soy Oil Cost
Other Operating Costs
Net Operating Return
13/14
14/15
15/16
(Million Gallons, Oct.-Sept. Year)
1,027
1,086
1,187
496
530
604
531
556
583
20
21
20
1,007
1,065
1,167
(Dollars per Gallon, Oct.-Sept. Year)
3.99
3.99
4.06
4.19
2.41
2.50
2.59
2.68
3.19
3.27
3.37
3.47
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1,251
647
604
40
1,211
1,297
677
620
74
1,224
1,330
699
631
111
1,219
1,338
703
636
157
1,181
4.30
2.74
3.54
1.00
1.00
4.39
2.79
3.59
1.00
1.00
4.47
2.79
3.59
1.00
1.00
4.51
2.77
3.57
1.00
1.00
3.99
0.03
-3.04
-0.56
0.41
3.99
0.03
-3.07
-0.57
0.39
4.06
0.03
-3.13
-0.57
0.39
4.19
0.03
-3.22
-0.58
0.42
4.30
0.03
-3.30
-0.58
0.44
4.39
0.03
-3.38
-0.59
0.45
4.47
0.03
-3.44
-0.60
0.47
4.51
0.03
-3.48
-0.60
0.46
U.S. Vegetable Oil Consumption
Per Capita Consumption
Soy Oil (Exc. Biodiesel)
Corn Oil
Canola Oil (Exc. Biodiesel)
Cottonseed Oil
Sunflower Oil
Peanut Oil
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
64.69
45.75
5.81
9.31
1.48
1.63
0.70
65.42
46.40
5.97
9.17
1.66
1.55
0.67
64.93
45.63
6.15
9.26
1.61
1.60
0.68
65.06
45.65
6.27
9.27
1.60
1.60
0.68
65.36
45.79
6.42
9.30
1.58
1.61
0.67
(Pounds)
65.60
45.78
6.61
9.35
1.57
1.61
0.67
65.67
45.67
6.78
9.38
1.55
1.62
0.67
65.72
45.63
6.92
9.33
1.54
1.63
0.67
65.82
45.61
7.07
9.31
1.53
1.63
0.66
65.99
45.67
7.20
9.29
1.53
1.64
0.66
66.25
45.80
7.30
9.33
1.52
1.65
0.65
100 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Sunflower Seed and Sunflower Seed Products
U.S. farm prices for sunflower seed have declined sharply in 2009/10, a year after sharp declines in European
prices.
Lower prices translate into lower net returns to sunflower seed producers in 2009/10. Sunflower acreage
contracted in 2009 in anticipation of lower returns relative to other crops. Projected 2010-2019 sunflower area is
steady at just over 2 million acres.
Crush accounts for slightly more than half of domestic sunflower seed use in the baseline. The United States is
normally a small net exporter of sunflower seed.
Rising world vegetable oil prices keep projected sunflower seed prices above pre-2007 levels. Slowly rising prices
and yields after 2011/12 offset rising production costs, so average net returns are fairly stable.
ACRE program participation is higher for sunflower seed than for other crops. ACRE payments can be large when
national prices or state yields fall relative to recent averages.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 101
U.S. Sunflower Seed Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
2.03
1.95
2.08
1.96
2.09
1.98
2.09
1.97
2.08
1.97
2.09
1.97
2.09
1.98
2.10
1.98
2.10
1.98
Yield
Actual
1,554
1,470
1,485
1,499
(Pounds per Acre)
1,514
1,529
1,544
1,559
1,575
1,590
1,606
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
3,695
494
3,036
164
3,473
422
2,886
164
3,498
395
2,938
164
3,531
411
2,956
164
(Million Pounds)
3,555
3,580
3,622
411
419
423
2,979
2,996
3,035
164
164
164
3,666
425
3,076
164
3,708
430
3,114
164
3,746
432
3,150
164
3,787
435
3,187
164
Domestic Use
Food & Residual
Crush
2,868
1,349
1,519
2,760
1,302
1,458
2,784
1,323
1,461
2,782
1,326
1,455
2,795
1,337
1,458
2,810
1,342
1,468
2,828
1,350
1,478
2,861
1,359
1,502
2,896
1,366
1,529
2,934
1,374
1,560
2,974
1,383
1,591
404
317
303
338
340
347
369
375
380
376
373
3,272
3,077
3,087
3,119
3,136
3,157
3,197
3,236
3,276
3,310
3,346
422
395
411
411
419
423
425
430
432
435
440
15.50
9.30
10.10
0.80
16.32
10.09
12.68
0.80
16.26
10.09
12.68
0.80
16.57
10.09
12.68
0.80
(U.S. Cents per Pound)
16.53
16.62
16.95
10.09
10.09
10.09
12.68
12.68
12.68
0.80
0.80
0.80
17.09
10.09
12.68
0.80
17.27
10.09
12.68
0.80
17.37
10.09
12.68
0.80
17.38
10.09
12.68
0.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1,087
1,087
1,087
1,087
(Pounds per Acre)
1,087
1,087
1,087
1,087
1,087
1,087
1,087
ACRE Participation Rate
21.2
27.6
29.7
31.8
31.8
31.8
31.8
31.8
31.8
Returns and Payments
Gross Market Revenue
Variable Expenses
Market Net Returns
Marketing Loan Benefits
ACRE Payments
CCP Payment/Base
Direct Payment/Base
240.94
101.78
139.16
0.00
3.47
0.00
6.94
239.98
104.73
135.25
0.00
3.13
0.00
6.84
241.41
109.49
131.92
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.81
248.44
113.25
135.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.92
(U.S. Dollars per Acre)
250.20
254.14
261.73
116.40
119.64
123.22
133.80
134.50
138.51
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.92
6.92
6.92
266.45
126.03
140.42
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.92
272.04
128.34
143.70
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.92
276.27
130.66
145.61
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.92
279.11
132.62
146.49
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.92
Area
Planted Area
Harvested Area
Exports
Total Use
Ending Stocks
Prices, Program Provisions
Farm Price
Loan Rate
Target Price
Direct Payment
Base Area
Direct Payment Yield
13/14
14/15
(Million Acres)
2.08
2.07
1.97
1.96
(Million Acres)
1.80
1.80
31.8
(Percent)
31.8
102 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Sunflower Meal Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
375
5
370
0
360
5
355
0
361
5
356
0
359
5
354
0
Domestic Use
362
347
348
8
8
370
Exports
Total Use
Ending Stocks
Price
28% Protein, Minnesota
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Thousand Tons)
360
362
5
5
355
357
0
0
365
5
360
0
371
5
366
0
377
5
372
0
385
5
380
0
392
5
387
0
347
347
350
352
358
365
372
379
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
355
356
354
355
357
360
366
372
380
387
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
147.80
138.46
141.50
142.06
(U.S. Dollars per Ton)
143.39
144.72
144.98
145.23
145.60
145.69
145.90
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 103
U.S. Sunflower Oil Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
828
110
652
66
790
98
625
66
789
96
627
66
787
97
624
66
Domestic Use
506
488
507
Exports
224
206
Total Use
730
Ending Stocks
Price
Average Crude, Minnesota
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Million Pounds)
789
794
97
98
626
630
66
66
799
98
634
66
809
99
644
66
821
99
656
66
835
99
669
66
848
100
682
66
512
519
526
532
541
549
556
564
185
179
172
169
167
169
173
178
184
694
692
690
691
695
700
710
722
735
748
98
96
97
97
98
98
99
99
99
100
101
55.65
57.69
59.02
59.98
(U.S. Cents per Pound)
60.45
61.29
62.58
63.68
64.74
65.66
66.25
104 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Canola Seed and Canola Seed Products
U.S. farm prices for canola have declined sharply in 2009/10. Canola prices have not declined as much as
sunflower seed prices, in part because of continued strong European demand for rapeseed oil to produce biodiesel.
As with sunflower seed, anticipated reductions in canola prices resulted in lower canola acreage in 2009.
Projected canola acreage increases slightly in 2010 as lower prices for wheat and barley reduce competition from
competing crops. Canola acreage increases slightly in later years, but remains well below the 2007 level of 1.2
million acres.
U.S. imports of canola, canola oil, and canola meal from Canada have exceeded domestic production in recent
years.
Over the baseline, continued strength in vegetable oil demand leads to rising canola oil prices. While plants have
been built to use canola oil as a feedstock in biodiesel production, projected canola oil prices are sufficiently high
that relatively little U.S. canola oil is likely to be used for biodiesel production.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 105
U.S. Canola Seed Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
827
814
965
939
968
941
967
940
(Thousand Acres)
973
977
982
946
949
955
999
971
Yield
Actual
1,811
1,532
1,549
1,567
(Pounds per Acre)
1,585
1,603
1,621
1,639
1,657
1,675
1,693
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
3,653
444
1,474
1,735
3,620
414
1,438
1,769
3,632
413
1,459
1,761
3,643
417
1,474
1,752
(Million Pounds)
3,659
3,674
3,695
418
420
422
1,500
1,522
1,548
1,740
1,732
1,725
3,729
423
1,591
1,714
3,772
423
1,644
1,706
3,815
422
1,693
1,700
3,854
421
1,735
1,697
Domestic Use
Seed & Residual
Crush
2,758
69
2,689
2,740
69
2,671
2,748
70
2,677
2,759
71
2,688
2,772
72
2,700
2,786
73
2,713
2,805
74
2,732
2,836
74
2,762
2,874
75
2,800
2,912
75
2,837
2,946
76
2,870
481
468
468
466
466
466
466
470
476
481
485
3,239
3,208
3,215
3,224
3,238
3,252
3,272
3,306
3,351
3,394
3,431
414
413
417
418
420
422
423
423
422
421
423
15.75
9.30
10.10
0.80
16.26
10.09
12.68
0.80
16.30
10.09
12.68
0.80
16.51
10.09
12.68
0.80
(U.S. Cents per Pound)
16.63
16.72
16.91
10.09
10.09
10.09
12.68
12.68
12.68
0.80
0.80
0.80
17.25
10.09
12.68
0.80
17.52
10.09
12.68
0.80
17.79
10.09
12.68
0.80
17.77
10.09
12.68
0.80
703
708
709
710
(Thousand Acres)
710
710
710
710
710
710
710
1,041
1,041
1,041
1,041
(Pounds per Acre)
1,041
1,041
1,041
1,041
1,041
1,041
1,041
ACRE Participation Rate
9.7
12.6
13.6
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.6
Returns and Payments
Gross Market Revenue
Variable Expenses
Market Net Returns
Marketing Loan Benefits
ACRE Payments
CCP Payment/Base
Direct Payment/Base
285.19
153.48
131.71
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.80
249.08
157.92
91.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.76
252.58
165.11
87.47
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.75
258.73
170.77
87.95
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.87
(U.S. Dollars per Acre)
263.62
268.00
274.06
175.52
180.41
185.80
88.09
87.59
88.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.87
6.87
6.87
282.71
190.05
92.66
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.87
290.36
193.53
96.83
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.87
297.88
197.02
100.86
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.87
300.81
199.99
100.82
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.87
Area
Planted Area
Harvested Area
Exports
Total Use
Ending Stocks
Prices, Program Provisions
Farm Price
Loan Rate
Target Price
Direct Payment
Base Area
Direct Payment Yield
13/14
14.6
14/15
(Percent)
14.6
15/16
16/17
17/18
1,020
992
18/19
1,040
1,011
19/20
1,054
1,025
106 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Canola Meal Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
2,854
6
814
2,034
2,806
6
809
1,991
2,899
6
811
2,082
2,923
6
814
2,103
(Thousand Tons)
2,963
3,015
3,039
6
6
6
818
822
827
2,139
2,187
2,206
3,072
6
836
2,230
3,103
6
848
2,250
3,144
6
859
2,279
3,180
6
869
2,305
Domestic Use
2,757
2,709
2,801
2,826
2,866
2,918
2,942
2,975
3,006
3,047
3,083
91
91
91
91
91
91
91
91
91
91
91
2,848
2,800
2,893
2,917
2,957
3,009
3,033
3,066
3,097
3,138
3,174
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
194.79
190.06
187.99
193.24
(U.S. Dollars per Ton)
197.26
198.91
202.23
203.81
205.41
205.77
206.41
Exports
Total Use
Ending Stocks
Market Price
14/15
U.S. Canola Oil Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
3,573
165
1,062
2,346
3,559
182
1,055
2,322
3,625
189
1,057
2,379
3,660
193
1,061
2,405
(Million Pounds)
3,704
3,756
3,799
197
202
207
1,066
1,071
1,079
2,441
2,482
2,514
3,811
209
1,090
2,511
3,828
208
1,105
2,515
3,846
204
1,120
2,522
3,887
201
1,133
2,553
Domestic Use
Biodiesel Use
Food and Other
2,942
46
2,896
2,920
41
2,880
2,983
49
2,934
3,014
48
2,965
3,053
48
3,005
3,100
50
3,050
3,140
53
3,088
3,154
51
3,104
3,175
49
3,126
3,197
48
3,149
3,238
49
3,190
449
449
449
449
449
449
449
449
449
449
449
3,391
3,369
3,432
3,463
3,502
3,549
3,589
3,603
3,624
3,646
3,687
182
189
193
197
202
207
209
208
204
201
200
44.61
46.17
47.67
48.46
(U.S. Cents per Pound)
48.70
49.14
50.16
51.97
53.50
54.85
55.22
Exports
Total Use
Ending Stocks
Market Price
14/15
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 107
U.S. Peanuts and Peanut Products
Sharply lower peanut production in 2009/10 results in some drawdown of stocks built up the previous year. Only
a modest increase in production is projected for 2010/11, resulting in a further reduction in carryover stocks. In
later years, production and use are approximately in balance. In any given year, unanticipated market shocks
could move supply or demand away from these projections.
Peanut food use increased in 2008/09 and is expected to increase again in 2009/10, in spite of the early 2009
recall of some peanut products. Projected domestic food use of peanuts grows more slowly than population.
U.S. peanut exports have increased since 2004/05, but higher prices and limited supplies result in lower exports in
2010/11.
Peanut prices and variable production expenses both decline in 2009/10, leaving net returns little changed from
the previous year. Projected average prices increase in 2010/11 and stay above 24¢ per pound in later years.
Actual prices will vary around the projected averages and sometimes may dip low enough to trigger
countercyclical payments and marketing loan benefits.
108 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Peanut Supply and Utilization
09/10
Area
Planted Area
Harvested Area
1,116
1,081
10/11
1,217
1,187
11/12
1,344
1,311
12/13
1,316
1,284
13/14
14/15
15/16
(Thousand Acres)
1,315
1,309
1,303
1,283
1,277
1,271
16/17
1,300
1,268
17/18
1,302
1,271
18/19
1,295
1,263
19/20
1,294
1,262
Yield
Actual
3,412
3,242
3,265
3,296
(Pounds per Acre)
3,326
3,356
3,386
3,415
3,444
3,474
3,504
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
5,878
2,130
3,688
60
5,498
1,588
3,850
60
5,717
1,375
4,282
60
5,740
1,448
4,232
60
(Million Pounds)
5,774
5,802
5,825
1,448
1,457
1,464
4,266
4,285
4,302
60
60
60
5,859
1,468
4,331
60
5,914
1,478
4,376
60
5,947
1,498
4,389
60
5,991
1,509
4,422
60
Domestic Use
Food
Crush
Seed, Feed, & Residual
3,540
2,652
458
430
3,480
2,618
441
421
3,600
2,682
494
424
3,622
2,709
489
424
3,645
2,728
493
425
3,664
2,743
496
425
3,682
2,758
498
426
3,703
2,773
503
428
3,733
2,792
511
430
3,753
2,808
514
431
3,779
2,826
519
433
751
643
669
671
672
674
675
678
683
685
687
Total Use
4,290
4,123
4,269
4,292
4,317
4,338
4,357
4,381
4,416
4,438
4,466
Ending Stocks
1,588
1,375
1,448
1,448
1,457
1,464
1,468
1,478
1,498
1,509
1,525
Prices and Returns
Farm Price
Loan Rate
Target Price
Direct Payment
21.34
17.75
24.75
1.80
24.80
17.75
24.75
1.80
24.27
17.75
24.75
1.80
24.68
17.75
24.75
1.80
(U.S. Cents per Pound)
24.92
25.18
25.51
17.75
17.75
17.75
24.75
24.75
24.75
1.80
1.80
1.80
25.72
17.75
24.75
1.80
25.73
17.75
24.75
1.80
25.94
17.75
24.75
1.80
26.00
17.75
24.75
1.80
Exports
Base Area
Direct Payment Yield
1,477
1,479
1,480
1,480
2,998
2,998
2,998
2,998
ACRE Participation Rate
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Returns and Payments
Gross Market Revenue
Variable Expenses
Market Net Returns
Marketing Loan Benefits
ACRE Payments
CCP Payment/Base
Direct Payment/Base
727.96
493.49
234.47
0.00
0.00
41.14
44.95
804.24
507.94
296.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
44.95
792.42
531.75
260.66
0.00
0.00
0.00
44.95
813.66
548.41
265.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
45.87
(Thousand Acres)
1,480
1,480
1,480
(Pounds per Acre)
2,998
2,998
2,998
1,480
1,480
1,480
1,480
2,998
2,998
2,998
2,998
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(U.S. Dollars per Acre)
828.79
845.03
863.75
562.69
577.11
594.93
266.10
267.92
268.82
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
45.87
45.87
45.87
878.45
608.36
270.09
0.00
0.00
0.00
45.87
886.32
619.11
267.21
0.00
0.00
0.00
45.87
901.12
630.19
270.92
0.00
0.00
0.00
45.87
911.07
640.04
271.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
45.87
0.0
(Percent)
0.0
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 109
U.S. Peanut Meal Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
222
4
217
0
214
4
210
0
239
4
235
0
237
4
232
0
Domestic Use
206
199
224
11
11
217
Exports
Total Use
Ending Stocks
Price
50% Southeast Mills
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Million Pounds)
239
240
4
4
234
236
0
0
241
4
237
0
244
4
239
0
247
4
243
0
249
4
244
0
251
4
247
0
221
223
225
226
228
232
233
236
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
210
235
232
234
236
237
239
243
244
247
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
124.79
116.61
116.63
117.97
(U.S. Dollars per Ton)
118.41
118.31
118.18
117.28
116.29
115.13
113.56
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
U.S. Peanut Oil Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
253
24
148
80
245
24
143
78
252
24
160
68
252
24
159
69
(Million Pounds)
253
254
24
24
160
161
68
69
255
24
162
69
257
24
163
69
258
24
166
68
259
24
167
68
259
24
169
66
Domestic Use
218
210
217
217
217
218
220
221
223
224
224
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
229
221
228
228
228
230
231
232
234
235
235
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
62.07
64.77
65.85
67.14
(U.S. Cents per Pound)
67.97
69.08
70.42
71.70
72.81
74.08
74.97
Exports
Total Use
Ending Stocks
Price
Southeast Mills
13/14
14/15
110 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Upland Cotton and Cottonseed Products
U.S. upland cotton production falls far short of use in 2009/10, the second straight year of shortfalls, resulting
in another large reduction in carryover stocks. Higher projected cotton acreage and yields in 2010/11 bring
production and use into balance.
The recession sharply reduced world cotton demand. Recovery in the world economy results in higher projected
cotton prices and export demand.
Changes in Chinese cotton purchasing patterns have contributed to large historic annual swings in U.S. cotton
exports.
Domestic mill use continues to decline, but the rate of contraction has slowed in recent years.
Lower stock levels make the cotton market very sensitive to any shifts in supply and demand. Given tighter cotton
stocks, exports can only grow as projected if production increases.
Higher prices and lower production expenses increase cotton market net returns per acre in 2009/10. However,
higher prices also eliminate marketing loan benefits and reduce countercyclical payments in 2009/10. Projected
returns increase in 2010/11, largely because of higher yields.
Higher prices for all oilseeds and reduced cottonseed production contributed to sharply higher cottonseed prices in
2008/09.
Cottonseed prices fall back to about the 2007/08 level in 2009/10. This puts cottonseed prices in a more normal
relationship to prices for oilseed meals and vegetable oils. A large projected increase in cottonseed production
contributes to a further decline in cottonseed prices in 2010/11.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 111
U.S. Upland Cotton Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Area
Planted Area
Harvested Area
9.01
7.55
10.16
8.98
10.03
8.86
10.05
8.87
(Million Acres)
10.01
10.02
8.83
8.83
10.02
8.82
10.07
8.86
10.14
8.91
10.19
8.95
10.27
9.02
Yield
Actual
763
819
826
834
858
867
878
888
898
18.04
6.03
12.01
0.00
19.28
3.96
15.33
0.00
19.42
4.18
15.24
0.00
19.57
4.17
15.40
0.00
19.89
4.12
15.77
0.00
20.07
4.06
16.01
0.00
20.31
4.02
16.30
0.00
20.56
4.01
16.55
0.00
20.86
3.99
16.86
0.00
3.36
3.32
3.27
3.21
3.15
3.08
3.01
2.95
2.89
2.82
2.76
Exports
10.73
11.79
11.98
12.18
12.34
12.60
12.82
13.10
13.42
13.74
14.10
Total Use
14.09
15.10
15.25
15.39
15.49
15.68
15.83
16.05
16.31
16.57
16.86
Unaccounted
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Ending Stocks
CCC Inventory
Other Stocks
3.96
0.00
3.96
4.18
0.00
4.18
4.17
0.00
4.17
4.19
0.00
4.19
4.17
0.00
4.17
4.12
0.00
4.12
4.06
0.00
4.06
4.02
0.00
4.02
4.01
0.00
4.01
3.99
0.00
3.99
4.00
0.00
4.00
0.603
n.a.
0.741
0.576
0.520
0.713
0.067
0.040
0.582
n.a.
0.728
0.563
0.520
0.713
0.067
0.040
0.587
n.a.
0.734
0.570
0.520
0.713
0.067
0.040
0.593
n.a.
0.740
0.576
0.520
0.713
0.067
0.030
(U.S. Dollars per Pound)
0.600
0.613
0.625
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
0.746
0.762
0.774
0.581
0.597
0.609
0.520
0.520
0.520
0.713
0.713
0.713
0.067
0.067
0.067
0.030
0.030
0.030
0.636
n.a.
0.786
0.621
0.520
0.713
0.067
0.030
0.645
n.a.
0.795
0.630
0.520
0.713
0.067
0.030
0.652
n.a.
0.803
0.638
0.520
0.713
0.067
0.030
0.660
n.a.
0.812
0.647
0.520
0.713
0.067
0.030
17.84
17.86
17.87
17.87
(Million Acres)
17.87
17.87
17.87
17.87
17.87
17.87
17.87
Direct Payment Yield
CCP Yield
595
631
595
631
595
631
595
631
(Pounds per Acre)
595
595
631
631
595
631
595
631
595
631
595
631
595
631
ACRE Participation Rate
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
(Percent)
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Returns and Payments
Gross Market Revenue
Variable Expenses
Market Net Returns
Marketing Loan Benefits
ACRE Payments
CCP Payment/Base
Direct Payment/Base
552.58
431.39
121.19
0.00
0.01
22.67
33.06
566.83
446.86
119.97
0.00
0.00
34.16
33.05
579.93
470.50
109.42
0.00
0.00
31.47
33.05
591.43
482.98
108.45
0.00
0.00
28.23
33.72
(U.S. Dollars per Acre)
603.64
621.97
640.01
494.80
507.67
525.57
108.84
114.30
114.45
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
24.43
17.36
10.90
33.72
33.72
33.72
657.05
538.74
118.31
0.00
0.00
5.10
33.72
673.28
549.16
124.12
0.00
0.00
0.60
33.72
688.19
559.69
128.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
33.72
702.75
569.98
132.77
0.00
0.00
0.00
33.72
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Domestic Use
Mill Use
Prices, Program Provisions
Farm Price
Cotlook A Index NE
Cotlook A Index Far East
Adjusted World Price
Loan Rate
Target Price
Direct Payment
User Payment
Base Area
14/15
(Pounds per Acre)
841
850
(Million Bales)
19.66
19.80
4.19
4.17
15.47
15.63
0.00
0.00
112 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Cottonseed Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
4,692
514
4,178
0
5,874
450
5,423
0
5,950
562
5,388
0
6,009
570
5,438
0
(Thousand Tons)
6,034
6,088
6,135
577
579
585
5,458
5,509
5,550
0
0
0
6,216
589
5,627
0
6,318
597
5,721
0
6,411
607
5,804
0
6,521
616
5,905
0
Domestic Use
Crush
Other
3,938
2,071
1,867
4,915
2,320
2,594
4,976
2,327
2,649
5,023
2,335
2,688
5,043
2,336
2,707
5,087
2,345
2,742
5,126
2,354
2,772
5,193
2,371
2,822
5,277
2,390
2,887
5,352
2,406
2,946
5,442
2,424
3,018
304
397
404
409
412
416
420
426
435
442
451
4,242
5,312
5,380
5,432
5,455
5,503
5,546
5,619
5,711
5,794
5,894
450
562
570
577
579
585
589
597
607
616
627
166.04
233.03
42.12
69.82
149.47
204.34
41.36
71.10
156.73
210.40
43.96
74.65
158.13
210.95
44.67
75.70
(U.S. Dollars)
159.73
161.80
163.94
213.25
215.26
215.30
45.08
45.88
47.06
76.41
77.76
79.28
165.58
215.00
48.17
80.97
167.04
214.76
49.19
82.58
168.03
214.09
50.03
83.91
168.23
213.46
50.54
85.01
Exports
Total Use
Ending Stocks
Prices and Returns
Farm Price/ton
Meal Price/ton
Oil Price/cwt
Crushing Margin/ton
14/15
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 113
U.S. Cottonseed Meal Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
949
17
932
0
1,064
19
1,044
0
1,076
29
1,047
0
1,079
28
1,051
0
(Thousand Tons)
1,079
1,083
1,087
28
28
28
1,051
1,056
1,060
0
0
0
1,095
28
1,067
0
1,104
28
1,076
0
1,111
28
1,083
0
1,120
29
1,091
0
Domestic Use
840
945
958
961
962
966
970
977
985
992
1,001
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
930
1,035
1,048
1,051
1,052
1,056
1,060
1,067
1,075
1,082
1,091
19
29
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
29
29
233.03
204.34
210.40
210.95
(U.S. Dollars per Ton)
213.25
215.26
215.30
215.00
214.76
214.09
213.46
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Exports
Total Use
Ending Stocks
Prices
Memphis
14/15
U.S. Cottonseed Oil Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
765
121
644
0
838
116
722
0
843
119
724
0
843
117
726
0
(Million Pounds)
843
846
117
116
726
729
0
0
848
116
732
0
852
115
737
0
857
114
743
0
862
113
748
0
867
113
754
0
Domestic Use
461
520
510
510
510
511
510
512
515
517
521
Exports
188
199
216
216
216
219
223
226
229
231
233
Total Use
649
718
726
727
727
730
733
738
744
749
754
Ending Stocks
116
119
117
117
116
116
115
114
113
113
113
42.12
41.36
43.96
44.67
(U.S. Cents per Pound)
45.08
45.88
47.06
48.17
49.19
50.03
50.54
Prices
Valley Points
13/14
14/15
114 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Sugar
Reduced imports and beginning stocks have resulted in very tight sugar supplies in 2009/10, in spite of a modest
increase in domestic production.
In response to high sugar prices, projected sugar production increases in 2010/11.
Sugar imports from Mexico also increase in 2010/11, assuming a return to normal growing conditions in Mexico
and a supply response to high prices.
HFCS consumption has been declining, in part because of reduced consumption of caloric soft drinks.
Per capita sugar consumption has been fairly steady, although current high prices cause a slight dip in 2009/10.
Sugar prices jump to record levels in 2009/10 because of very tight supplies. The projected supply response to
these high prices results in much lower prices in 2010/11.
Prices in any given year will vary from the reported averages. If supplies are larger or demand is weaker, prices
could fall low enough to trigger the sugar-for-ethanol program.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 115
U.S. Sugar Crop Production
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Beet Sugar
Harvested Area (1,000 a)
Yield (tons/a)
Production (1,000 tons)
1,145
25.77
29,519
1,264
26.30
33,238
1,164
26.59
30,956
1,145
26.89
30,793
1,148
27.20
31,224
1,151
27.52
31,688
1,156
27.84
32,175
1,149
28.15
32,345
1,146
28.46
32,634
1,146
28.78
32,986
1,148
29.10
33,420
Cane Sugar
Harvested Area (1,000 a)
Yield (tons/a)
Production (1,000 tons)
821
34.60
28,395
846
33.46
28,314
854
33.59
28,679
834
33.74
28,140
832
33.98
28,254
831
34.23
28,435
830
34.48
28,621
828
34.72
28,734
824
34.97
28,807
821
35.22
28,903
818
35.47
29,014
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Thousand Short Tons, Raw Value)
12,437
12,563
12,724
12,872
12,971
1,501
1,495
1,517
1,532
1,559
8,324
8,445
8,581
8,721
8,803
4,846
4,946
5,051
5,162
5,222
3,478
3,500
3,529
3,559
3,581
13,084
1,587
8,899
5,302
3,597
13,211
1,613
9,009
5,393
3,616
13,349
1,638
9,135
5,498
3,637
U.S. Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
11,665
1,451
7,837
4,400
3,437
12,208
1,103
8,649
5,163
3,486
12,423
1,475
8,378
4,840
3,538
Imports
Tariff-Rate Quota
Duty-Free NAFTA
Other TRQ
Other Program
High-Tier and Other
Mexico
2,377
1,257
0
1,257
350
770
760
2,456
1,157
0
1,157
350
949
939
2,570
1,159
0
1,159
350
1,061
1,051
2,611
1,162
0
1,162
350
1,100
1,090
2,622
1,164
0
1,164
350
1,108
1,098
2,626
1,166
0
1,166
350
1,110
1,100
2,619
1,169
0
1,169
350
1,100
1,090
2,609
1,171
0
1,171
350
1,088
1,078
2,598
1,173
0
1,173
350
1,075
1,065
2,588
1,176
0
1,176
350
1,063
1,053
2,576
1,178
0
1,178
350
1,048
1,038
Utilization
Domestic Deliveries
Exports
Statistical Discrepancy
10,562
10,392
170
0
10,733
10,572
161
0
10,922
10,761
161
0
10,942
10,781
161
0
11,045
10,885
161
0
11,192
11,031
161
0
11,313
11,152
161
0
11,384
11,223
161
0
11,471
11,310
161
0
11,573
11,412
161
0
11,680
11,519
161
0
Ending Stocks
CCC
Other
1,103
0
1,103
1,475
0
1,475
1,501
0
1,501
1,495
0
1,495
1,517
0
1,517
1,532
0
1,532
1,559
0
1,559
1,587
0
1,587
1,613
0
1,613
1,638
0
1,638
1,669
0
1,669
Prices
N.Y. Spot Raw Sugar
Refined Beet Sugar
Cane Loan Rate
Beet Loan Rate
29.35
42.95
18.25
23.45
25.04
32.97
18.50
23.77
24.62
32.32
18.75
24.09
25.08
32.90
18.75
24.09
(U.S. Cents per Pound)
25.23
25.52
25.62
33.05
33.39
33.47
18.75
18.75
18.75
24.09
24.09
24.09
25.62
33.41
18.75
24.09
25.65
33.40
18.75
24.09
25.72
33.43
18.75
24.09
25.68
33.32
18.75
24.09
Raw Sugar
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Beet Sugar
Cane Sugar
U.S. LIVESTOCK AND
DAIRY
118 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Beef
A sharp decline in consumer demand for beef resulted in much lower cattle prices in 2009 despite a decline in
beef production. Cow-calf producers are expected to achieve near break-even profitability in 2010 following
losses in 2008 and 2009. As the economy recovers, beef demand should strengthen. This will combine with tight
beef supplies for the next few years, returning profitability to the beef industry.
The size of the U.S. calf crop has declined for 14 consecutive years, and this trend will not soon reverse itself. As
cattle imports from Canada increased from 2005 to 2008, the effect of declining U.S. calf availability on slaughter
levels was muted. Cattle imports are not expected to increase sharply in the years to come. Also, a higher percentage of calves will be used to rebuild the cow herd once prices improve, limiting slaughter levels.
International beef demand will increase as global economies recover, allowing beef exports to approach pre-BSE
levels by 2012. Beef imports will also increase in the coming years, as a declining cow herd and higher prices encourage importers to seek cow meat supplies from overseas. In the next 10 years about 12% of beef consumption
is expected to be imported and 10% of production exported.
U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 119
U.S. Beef Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Beef Cows (Jan. 1)
Dairy Cows (Jan. 1)
31.7
9.3
31.0
9.1
30.5
9.0
30.1
8.9
Cattle and Calves (Jan. 1)
Calf Crop
Calf Death Loss
94.5
35.6
2.2
93.5
34.9
2.1
92.7
34.5
2.1
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
(Million Head)
30.1
30.1
8.9
8.9
30.2
8.9
30.6
8.9
30.9
8.9
31.1
8.9
31.3
8.9
91.8
34.4
2.1
91.3
34.5
2.1
91.3
34.8
2.1
91.7
35.1
2.1
92.2
35.6
2.1
92.7
35.9
2.1
93.0
36.1
2.1
93.3
36.2
2.1
1.0
3.4
2.9
0.6
26.6
34.4
1.0
3.3
2.7
0.6
26.3
33.8
1.0
3.1
2.7
0.6
26.4
33.7
1.0
2.9
2.7
0.6
26.2
33.3
1.0
2.9
2.7
0.6
25.9
33.0
1.0
2.8
2.7
0.6
25.9
32.9
1.0
2.6
2.7
0.6
26.3
33.1
1.0
2.6
2.7
0.6
26.7
33.5
1.0
2.7
2.7
0.6
26.9
33.9
1.0
2.8
2.7
0.6
27.2
34.2
1.0
2.9
2.7
0.6
27.4
34.5
2.0
0.1
2.2
0.1
2.2
0.1
2.3
0.1
2.3
0.1
2.3
0.1
2.3
0.1
2.3
0.1
2.3
0.1
2.3
0.1
2.3
0.1
Cattle Death Loss
Residual
Cattle and Calves (Dec. 31)
2.3
0.4
93.5
2.3
0.4
92.7
2.3
0.5
91.8
2.2
0.5
91.3
2.2
0.6
91.3
2.2
0.6
91.7
2.2
0.6
92.2
2.2
0.6
92.7
2.3
0.6
93.0
2.3
0.6
93.3
2.3
0.6
93.4
Cattle on Feed (Jan. 1)
13.9
13.6
13.8
14.1
14.0
14.0
14.2
14.4
14.4
14.5
14.4
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Imports
Production
Total
642
2,703
26,056
29,401
555
2,799
25,589
28,943
469
2,950
25,494
28,914
504
3,157
25,297
28,958
(Million Pounds)
512
530
544
3,250
3,326
3,363
25,220
25,174
25,510
28,982
29,031
29,416
567
3,351
25,995
29,913
592
3,289
26,452
30,333
616
3,239
26,851
30,706
638
3,197
27,219
31,053
Disappearance
Domestic Use
Exports
Total
Ending Stocks
26,985
1,861
28,846
555
26,481
1,992
28,474
469
26,226
2,184
28,410
504
26,011
2,435
28,446
512
25,975
2,477
28,452
530
25,993
2,494
28,487
544
26,310
2,539
28,849
567
26,692
2,629
29,321
592
27,045
2,672
29,717
616
27,367
2,702
30,069
638
27,651
2,747
30,397
656
87.7
61.4
-2.1%
85.2
59.6
-2.8%
83.6
58.5
-1.9%
82.1
57.5
-1.8%
81.2
56.8
-1.1%
(Pounds)
80.5
56.3
-0.9%
80.7
56.5
0.3%
81.1
56.7
0.5%
81.3
56.9
0.4%
81.5
57.1
0.2%
81.6
57.1
0.1%
82.68
-10.4%
87.80
6.2%
95.57
8.8%
101.11
5.8%
101.25
-0.6%
100.83
-0.4%
100.78
0.0%
100.65
-0.1%
101.85
-5.3%
47.01
-14.4%
140.33
-8.4%
109.46
7.5%
48.53
3.2%
150.92
7.5%
119.45
9.1%
54.48
12.3%
164.34
8.9%
130.03
8.9%
58.62
7.6%
173.50
5.6%
130.95
-1.7%
58.95
-0.8%
176.20
-0.2%
129.76
-0.9%
58.43
-0.9%
175.66
-0.3%
128.91
-0.7%
57.66
-1.3%
175.18
-0.3%
128.70
-0.2%
57.51
-0.2%
175.19
0.0%
128.63
-0.1%
57.44
-0.1%
175.15
0.0%
Beef Retail
Change
4.26
-1.5%
4.45
4.6%
4.73
6.2%
4.99
5.4%
(U.S. Dollars per Pound)
5.14
5.19
5.18
3.0%
1.0%
-0.1%
5.17
-0.3%
5.16
-0.1%
5.16
0.0%
5.16
0.0%
Net Returns
Cow - Calf
-35.26
1.10
40.47
74.61
(U.S. Dollars per Cow)
77.53
69.64
51.56
38.54
26.82
17.74
10.27
Calf Slaughter
Beef Cow Slaughter
Dairy Cow Slaughter
Bull Slaughter
Steer and Heifer Slaughter
Total Slaughter
Cattle Imports
Cattle Exports
Per Capita Consumption
Carcass Weight
Retail Weight
Change
Prices
1100 - 1300 #,
Nebraska Direct Steers
Change
600 - 650 #, Oklahoma
City Feeder Steers
Change
Utility Cows, Sioux Falls
Change
Boxed Beef Cutout
Change
2014
(U.S. Dollars per Hundredweight)
102.41
102.57
101.88
1.3%
0.2%
-0.7%
132.24
1.7%
59.19
1.0%
176.17
1.5%
133.15
0.7%
59.43
0.4%
176.54
0.2%
120 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Pork
Hog producers experienced another disastrous year in 2009. Equity losses in 2008 and 2009 wiped out profits
gained from 2004 to 2007. Producers are expected to approach break-even profitability in 2010, though much
hinges on the speed of economic recovery, both at home and abroad. The cyclical nature of profitability in pork
production is expected to continue. Improved returns in 2011 and 2012 will lead to higher production, which will
in turn limit profitability in subsequent years.
U.S. sow numbers have declined by over 6% in the past two years. However, gains in productivity have caused
pork production reductions to be much smaller. The largest area of increase has been observed in the number of
pigs per litter, which has increased by 6% from 2006 to 2009. One limiting factor on productivity growth in the
next decade will be a reversal of the long-term trend of increased hog imports from Canada.
Just as strong pork export growth from 2004 to 2008 buoyed hog prices in the face of strong production growth,
the reverse occurred in 2009. The global economic recession, as well as the end of short-term export boosters such
as hog disease problems in China, lowered pork exports by 500 million pounds last year. As pork export growth
resumes in the coming decade, the amount of pork available for U.S. consumers will decline.
U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 121
U.S. Pork Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Breeding Herd (Dec. 1*)
Gilts Added
Sows Slaughter
Sows Farrowed
Pigs per Litter (Head)
6.06
3.13
3.28
11.97
9.62
5.85
3.05
3.14
11.71
9.73
5.70
3.06
3.03
11.62
9.80
5.68
3.13
3.01
11.75
9.87
Market Hogs (Dec. 1*)
Pig Crop
61.1
115.2
60.0
113.9
59.1
113.9
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
(Million Head)
5.75
5.84
3.21
3.22
3.06
3.12
12.00
12.23
9.94
10.01
5.88
3.20
3.15
12.35
10.08
5.86
3.15
3.15
12.37
10.14
5.80
3.09
3.12
12.32
10.21
5.72
3.05
3.07
12.25
10.28
5.65
3.05
3.02
12.24
10.34
59.0
116.0
59.9
119.3
61.4
122.4
62.7
124.4
63.6
125.4
63.9
125.8
63.9
125.9
63.8
126.6
110.0
108.2
107.5
108.4
110.9
113.8
116.1
117.5
118.0
118.2
118.6
6.4
0.0
5.9
0.1
6.0
0.1
6.0
0.1
6.0
0.1
6.0
0.1
6.1
0.1
6.0
0.1
6.0
0.1
6.0
0.1
5.9
0.1
12.7
60.0
12.5
59.1
12.4
59.0
12.6
59.9
12.9
61.4
13.2
62.7
13.5
63.6
13.6
63.9
13.6
63.9
13.7
63.8
13.7
64.1
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Imports
Production
Total
635
841
23,022
24,498
575
892
22,698
24,165
563
951
22,639
24,153
555
988
22,924
24,466
(Million Pounds)
561
583
608
985
942
899
23,528
24,244
24,841
25,074
25,769
26,347
630
867
25,232
26,729
644
845
25,456
26,945
651
864
25,608
27,123
654
901
25,806
27,361
Disappearance
Domestic Use
Exports
Total
Ending Stocks
19,772
4,151
23,923
575
19,143
4,460
23,602
563
18,999
4,599
23,599
555
19,134
4,772
23,905
561
19,546
4,945
24,491
583
20,007
5,155
25,162
608
20,365
5,353
25,718
630
20,567
5,518
26,085
644
20,634
5,661
26,294
651
20,678
5,791
26,469
654
20,779
5,924
26,702
659
64.2
49.8
0.9%
61.6
47.8
-4.1%
60.5
47.0
-1.7%
60.4
46.9
-0.3%
61.1
47.4
1.2%
(Pounds)
61.9
48.1
1.4%
62.4
48.4
0.8%
62.5
48.5
0.0%
62.1
48.2
-0.6%
61.6
47.8
-0.7%
61.3
47.6
-0.5%
41.24
-13.8%
47.89
16.1%
53.76
12.3%
55.93
4.0%
49.58
-1.3%
50.48
1.8%
52.24
3.5%
53.93
3.2%
34.69
6.6%
58.10
-16.1%
38.17
10.0%
67.30
15.8%
41.69
9.2%
75.15
11.7%
44.94
7.8%
79.25
5.5%
43.00
-4.3%
78.36
-1.1%
39.56
-3.9%
76.77
-1.5%
38.64
-2.3%
76.36
-0.5%
39.25
1.6%
77.55
1.6%
40.91
4.2%
79.75
2.8%
42.65
4.2%
82.02
2.9%
2.92
-0.6%
3.05
4.6%
3.23
5.9%
3.36
4.0%
(U.S. Dollars per Pound)
3.36
3.34
3.32
-0.2%
-0.5%
-0.6%
3.31
-0.2%
3.39
2.3%
3.50
3.2%
3.62
3.6%
-9.64
-0.08
5.43
6.98
-1.71
-0.97
0.54
2.30
Barrow and Gilt Slaughter
Hog Imports
Hog Exports
Death Loss/Residual
Market Hogs (Nov. 30)
Per Capita Consumption
Carcass Weight
Retail Weight
Change
Prices
Barrows & Gilts, Natl. Base
51-52% live equiv.
Change
Sows, IA-S. Minn. #1-2,
300-400 lb
Change
Pork Cutout Value
Change
Pork Retail
Change
Net Returns
Farrow - Finish
* Preceding year.
2014
(U.S. Dollars per Hundredweight)
53.45
51.47
50.24
-4.4%
-3.7%
-2.4%
41.16
-4.3%
77.98
-0.5%
(U.S. Dollars per Hundredweight)
3.99
1.27
-0.65
122 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Poultry
For the first time in many decades, chicken production fell below the previous year’s levels. Turkey production
was also down. Feed prices are at historically high levels, and reduced demand for meat and egg products have
hampered all segments of the poultry industry. Chicken production is expected to grow at around 2% in the next
decade. This is much lower than the 4.5% average growth rate from 1990 to 2005.
Chicken markets provided a glimpse at value issues facing all meat products during a recession, as typically
lower-valued wing prices eclipsed those of boneless skinless breasts in 2009. With its lower-priced protein,
chicken is in the best position relative to beef and pork to survive tight consumer budgets. However, breast prices
must increase for the industry to succeed in the long run. Prices will increase upon economic recovery but not as
much as prices for beef and pork.
During the past decade, about 30% of all chicken exports were destined for Russia. Russia is currently banning
chicken treated with chlorine, the production process used in virtually all U.S. plants. If the ban is not resolved
quickly, a surplus of dark meat chicken will pull down other chicken part prices, as well as prices for beef and
pork.
U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 123
U.S. Broiler Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Imports
Production
Total
745
82
35,153
35,980
640
80
35,653
36,373
688
83
36,398
37,169
Disappearance
Domestic Use
Exports
Total
Ending Stocks
28,538
6,802
35,340
640
29,481
6,204
35,685
688
92.7
79.6
-4.5%
Per Capita Consumption
RTC Weight
Retail Weight
Change
Prices
12-City Wholesale
Change
Broiler Retail
Change
Broiler - Feed Ratio
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
708
86
37,136
37,930
(Million Pounds)
726
747
756
89
92
95
37,861
38,557
39,265
38,676
39,396
40,116
766
98
40,008
40,871
775
101
40,778
41,654
785
104
41,575
42,464
796
107
42,397
43,299
30,129
6,332
36,461
708
30,696
6,508
37,204
726
31,267
6,663
37,929
747
31,818
6,822
38,640
756
32,354
6,997
39,350
766
32,878
7,218
40,096
775
33,422
7,447
40,869
785
33,975
7,693
41,668
796
34,590
7,902
42,492
807
94.8
81.5
2.3%
96.0
82.5
1.2%
96.9
83.2
0.9%
97.7
83.9
0.9%
(Pounds)
98.5
84.6
0.8%
99.2
85.2
0.7%
99.8
85.8
0.7%
100.5
86.3
0.7%
101.2
86.9
0.7%
102.1
87.7
0.9%
77.60
-2.6%
177.97
1.9%
77.90
0.4%
182.05
2.3%
80.31
3.1%
188.31
3.4%
82.68
3.0%
194.95
3.5%
(Cents per Pound)
83.92
85.17
86.63
1.5%
1.5%
1.7%
199.75
203.69
207.47
2.5%
2.0%
1.9%
87.95
1.5%
210.59
1.5%
89.11
1.3%
213.27
1.3%
90.47
1.5%
216.18
1.4%
91.54
1.2%
218.58
1.1%
4.1
4.5
4.7
4.8
4.9
4.9
5.0
5.0
4.8
2014
4.8
4.8
124 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Turkey Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Imports
Production
Total
396
13
5,573
5,982
260
12
5,586
5,858
283
13
5,717
6,013
286
14
5,874
6,174
(Million Pounds)
288
294
297
15
16
17
6,016
6,129
6,217
6,319
6,439
6,531
301
18
6,282
6,601
303
19
6,330
6,653
305
20
6,368
6,693
305
21
6,401
6,728
Disappearance
Domestic Use
Exports
Total
Ending Stocks
5,187
536
5,723
260
5,030
545
5,575
283
5,152
576
5,728
286
5,283
602
5,885
288
5,409
617
6,025
294
5,510
631
6,141
297
5,583
648
6,230
301
5,629
668
6,297
303
5,658
689
6,348
305
5,676
712
6,388
305
5,691
731
6,422
305
Per Capita Consumption
Change
16.8
-4.2%
16.2
-4.0%
16.4
1.4%
16.7
1.6%
16.9
1.4%
(Pounds)
17.1
0.9%
17.1
0.4%
17.1
-0.1%
17.0
-0.4%
16.9
-0.6%
16.8
-0.7%
Prices
East. Region, Wholesale
Change
Turkey Retail
Change
79.85
-8.8%
139.60
11.7%
82.79
3.7%
146.18
4.7%
85.77
3.6%
148.72
1.7%
87.98
2.6%
151.15
1.6%
(U.S. Cents per Pound)
88.81
89.93
91.06
0.9%
1.3%
1.3%
153.27
155.42
157.59
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
91.72
0.7%
159.08
0.9%
92.42
0.8%
160.23
0.7%
93.71
1.4%
161.72
0.9%
95.05
1.4%
163.20
0.9%
5.0
5.7
6.0
6.1
6.0
6.0
6.1
6.2
Turkey - Feed Ratio
6.0
2014
6.0
6.0
U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 125
U.S. Egg Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Total
17
7,517
11
7,546
15
7,569
12
7,596
15
7,686
12
7,714
15
7,806
13
7,834
Disappearance
Civilian Disappearance
Shell Egg
Breaking Egg
Hatching Egg
Exports
Total
Ending Stock
4,258
2,083
950
240
7,531
15
4,284
2,110
967
220
7,581
15
4,342
2,153
976
227
7,699
15
Per Capita Consumption
Shell Egg
Change
Breaking Egg
Change
Total
166.0
-0.8%
81.2
-0.1%
247.2
165.4
-0.4%
81.5
0.3%
246.8
102.97
-19.8%
166.40
-16.2%
7.1
Prices
NY Grade A Lg. Wholesale
Change
Shell Egg Retail
Change
Egg - Feed Ratio
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
(Million Dozen)
15
15
7,919
8,017
13
13
7,946
8,045
15
8,101
13
8,130
15
8,178
14
8,206
15
8,250
14
8,279
15
8,317
14
8,346
15
8,386
14
8,415
4,404
2,199
986
230
7,819
15
4,461
2,242
994
233
7,931
15
4,509
2,282
1,002
237
8,030
15
4,548
2,317
1,010
241
8,115
15
4,580
2,349
1,018
244
8,191
15
4,610
2,380
1,026
248
8,264
15
4,636
2,409
1,035
251
8,331
15
4,662
2,439
1,044
254
8,400
15
166.0
0.4%
82.3
1.1%
248.3
166.8
0.5%
83.3
1.1%
250.0
167.3
0.3%
84.1
1.0%
251.4
(Eggs)
167.5
0.1%
84.8
0.8%
252.2
167.3
-0.1%
85.2
0.6%
252.5
166.9
-0.2%
85.6
0.4%
252.5
166.4
-0.3%
85.9
0.4%
252.3
165.7
-0.4%
86.1
0.3%
251.9
165.1
-0.4%
86.4
0.3%
251.5
108.79
5.6%
171.73
3.2%
114.01
4.8%
179.78
4.7%
117.08
2.7%
186.08
3.5%
(U.S. Cents per Dozen)
119.18
120.27
121.19
1.8%
0.9%
0.8%
191.03
194.97
198.12
2.7%
2.1%
1.6%
122.20
0.8%
200.90
1.4%
122.75
0.4%
203.13
1.1%
123.41
0.5%
205.44
1.1%
124.20
0.6%
207.60
1.1%
8.3
8.8
9.0
8.8
8.8
8.7
8.8
9.0
2014
8.9
8.8
126 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Dairy
A large decline in farm-level milk prices was seen in 2009. All milk prices are expected to increase in 2010 to
near $17 per cwt. The increase in 2010 prices depends critically on general economic recovery. Although the
forecasted average all milk prices show little volatility, there is a large range in the price outcomes, suggesting
more volatility in the years ahead.
Lower world dairy prices were one of the reasons that U.S. all milk prices declined in 2009. Recovery in world
dairy prices in 2010 will help support higher U.S. milk prices. The U.S. is expected to be a larger player in world
markets in the baseline because of growing U.S. commercial dairy product exports.
The level of Milk Income Loss Contract (MILC) payments increased substantially in 2009 as a result of low milk
prices and high feed costs. The average outcome from the baseline shows only minimal levels of MILC payments
each year. However, some of the 500 outcomes have large MILC payments that exceed historical levels.
U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 127
U.S. Milk Component Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
1,740
514
420
85
721
1,732
510
430
86
706
1,742
503
437
86
715
1,758
497
446
86
729
(Million Pounds)
1,771
1,788
1,809
490
483
477
454
462
471
87
87
88
740
755
772
1,827
471
480
88
788
1,844
464
489
89
803
1,862
457
497
89
818
1,881
450
506
90
835
4,974
1,339
1,457
1,265
6
66
732
11
99
4,992
1,357
1,460
1,258
5
72
733
11
95
5,072
1,385
1,487
1,275
6
75
738
11
96
5,129
1,407
1,500
1,290
6
75
745
11
96
5,193
1,429
1,525
1,302
6
75
749
11
97
5,253
1,451
1,548
1,311
6
75
754
11
98
5,312
1,473
1,570
1,318
6
75
760
11
99
5,372
1,496
1,593
1,326
6
76
765
11
100
5,432
1,520
1,615
1,334
6
76
770
11
101
5,493
1,543
1,637
1,344
6
76
774
11
102
5,556
1,568
1,660
1,353
6
76
780
11
103
39
39
40
40
40
41
41
42
42
43
43
189,259
3.68%
6,965
188,432
3.68%
6,934
190,747
3.67%
7,000
192,766
3.66%
7,055
194,916
3.65%
7,114
197,104
3.64%
7,175
199,362
3.63%
7,237
201,559
3.62%
7,296
203,750
3.61%
7,355
205,992
3.60%
7,416
208,343
3.59%
7,480
212
171
147
128
111
93
75
56
38
19
-1
5,134
1,363
1,920
1,480
371
5,179
1,353
1,967
1,496
363
5,203
1,334
2,000
1,501
368
5,240
1,317
2,039
1,509
375
5,269
1,299
2,074
1,515
381
5,308
1,282
2,113
1,524
389
5,351
1,266
2,154
1,533
397
5,391
1,249
2,194
1,542
405
5,427
1,230
2,234
1,550
413
5,465
1,212
2,274
1,559
421
5,506
1,194
2,315
1,567
429
7,747
1,248
1,537
47
1,007
1,641
-635
552
1,037
1,673
648
7,697
1,264
1,540
47
873
1,581
-708
609
1,039
1,700
626
7,841
1,291
1,568
47
888
1,636
-748
627
1,046
1,745
628
7,941
1,311
1,581
48
904
1,662
-757
629
1,056
1,781
632
8,042
1,331
1,609
48
925
1,689
-763
629
1,061
1,801
637
8,138
1,352
1,632
49
945
1,714
-769
630
1,069
1,820
643
8,236
1,373
1,656
49
959
1,736
-777
633
1,077
1,840
649
8,331
1,394
1,680
49
975
1,759
-784
635
1,084
1,860
655
8,428
1,416
1,703
50
992
1,782
-791
636
1,091
1,879
661
8,528
1,438
1,726
50
1,011
1,807
-796
638
1,098
1,900
667
8,632
1,461
1,750
50
1,033
1,835
-801
639
1,105
1,920
673
93
93
93
94
95
97
98
99
100
101
102
189,259
8.70%
16,466
188,432
8.70%
16,394
190,747
8.70%
16,595
192,766
8.70%
16,771
194,916
8.70%
16,958
197,104
8.70%
17,148
199,362
8.70%
17,345
201,559
8.70%
17,536
203,750
8.70%
17,726
205,992
8.70%
17,921
208,343
8.70%
18,126
2,792
2,806
2,849
2,874
2,912
2,946
2,981
3,016
3,051
3,086
3,123
699
618
609
621
640
660
679
699
720
741
763
Min. FMMO Class Prices
Class I Mover
Class II
Class III
Class IV
11.48
11.26
11.36
10.89
15.50
13.84
15.38
13.46
16.05
14.65
15.93
14.27
16.19
15.07
16.07
14.69
17.05
16.22
16.93
15.84
17.17
16.44
17.05
16.06
17.33
16.73
17.21
16.35
17.50
17.02
17.38
16.64
All Milk Price
12.79
16.48
17.17
17.39
18.31
18.45
18.64
18.84
Milk-Fat Basis
Fluid Use
Whole Milk
2% Milk
1% and Skim Milk
Other
Product Use
American Cheese
Other Cheese
Butter
Nonfat Dry
Evap. and Condensed
Frozen Products
Whey Products
Other
Farm Use
Milk Production
% Fat
Total Fat Supply
Residual Fat
Solids-Not-Fat Basis
Fluid Use
Whole Milk
2% Milk
1% and Skim Milk
Other
Product Use
American Cheese
Other Cheese
Butter
Nonfat Dry
Total Nonfat Dry
Nonfat Dry in Other
Evap. and Condensed
Frozen Products
Whey Products
Other
Farm Use
Milk Production
% SNF
Total SNF Supply
Residual Whey
Residual SNF
2014
(U.S. Dollars per Hundredweight)
16.36
16.55
16.83
15.33
15.62
15.93
16.24
16.43
16.71
14.96
15.24
15.55
17.58
17.79
18.08
128 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. State-Level Dairy Supply
The cost of producing milk has increased rapidly because of high costs for feed and energy-related inputs. Low
milk prices coupled with historically high production costs resulted in the dairy industry experiencing one of the
worst years on record in 2009. Milk production costs have declined from their 2008 peak. However, they remain
well above the historical average.
Dairy cow inventories declined substantially in 2009 as a result of the negative returns faced by the industry.
Further contraction is expected in 2010 as returns remain historically low. Milk yield growth is expected
to accelerate in 2010 given the heavy culling of lower-producing dairy cows that occurred in 2009. New
technologies such as sexed semen could accelerate the growth in milk yields in the future.
Milk production is expected to decline in 2010 for the second consecutive year. After 2010, milk production
is projected to grow by 1.1% annually on average. Higher feed and transportation costs appear to be pushing
regional milk production closer to feed and other input sources.
U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 129
U.S. Dairy Cows by State
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
11
1
177
13
1,796
123
18
6
115
77
2
550
102
168
215
118
84
23
33
55
14
356
469
18
107
15
61
27
15
9
325
619
45
23
277
59
114
545
1
17
94
56
423
84
135
96
240
11
1,257
5
10
1
170
11
1,758
119
17
6
110
75
2
545
101
170
213
118
77
19
33
54
12
354
465
16
102
13
59
27
15
8
311
607
43
20
271
54
114
536
1
16
96
52
419
82
130
93
234
10
1,245
4
9
1
170
10
1,744
117
16
6
107
74
2
549
101
173
213
119
72
17
32
53
11
356
464
14
100
12
58
27
15
8
306
601
41
17
270
51
114
532
1
16
97
49
423
81
126
92
230
9
1,245
3
8
1
171
9
1,743
116
16
6
105
72
2
555
101
177
214
121
68
14
32
52
10
358
462
13
97
11
57
27
15
7
303
597
39
15
269
48
115
530
1
15
98
46
428
81
123
91
228
8
1,245
3
(Thousand Head)
8
7
7
1
1
1
172
173
174
8
7
6
1,748
1,757
1,769
115
114
114
15
15
14
6
6
6
103
101
99
71
69
67
2
2
1
564
573
583
102
102
102
181
184
187
214
215
215
123
124
126
65
63
61
12
11
9
32
32
32
51
50
49
9
8
7
359
361
362
459
455
450
12
11
10
95
93
91
10
9
9
56
56
55
27
28
28
15
15
15
7
6
6
302
302
303
593
589
585
37
35
33
13
11
10
268
267
266
46
44
42
114
114
114
528
526
524
1
1
1
14
14
13
98
98
98
44
42
40
433
437
441
81
81
81
121
119
117
90
90
89
227
225
224
7
7
7
1,241
1,237
1,233
4
4
5
6
1
175
6
1,784
113
14
6
97
66
1
595
102
190
215
127
59
8
32
48
7
363
445
9
90
9
55
28
15
5
305
581
31
9
265
40
113
522
1
13
98
38
444
81
115
88
223
6
1,228
5
6
1
176
5
1,802
113
13
6
95
64
1
607
102
193
215
128
57
6
32
48
6
363
438
8
88
8
54
28
15
5
308
577
29
8
264
39
112
520
1
12
98
35
447
81
114
87
221
6
1,223
5
5
1
177
5
1,822
112
13
6
94
62
1
619
102
195
214
129
56
5
32
47
6
363
432
7
86
9
54
29
15
5
311
573
27
7
262
37
111
518
1
12
97
33
449
81
112
86
220
6
1,217
5
5
1
178
5
1,844
112
12
6
92
61
1
632
101
198
214
130
55
4
32
47
6
364
425
6
84
9
54
29
15
4
315
568
24
6
260
36
110
515
1
11
97
31
451
81
111
85
219
6
1,212
5
United States
9,200
9,015
8,950
8,923
8,904
8,874
8,870
8,869
8,873
8,890
8,880
130 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Milk Production by State
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
United States
2009
2010
2011
2012
164
6
4,073
165
39,506
2,865
353
102
2,080
1,393
21
12,144
1,925
3,370
4,379
2,484
1,192
275
596
1,004
233
7,980
9,030
250
1,568
299
1,211
588
293
159
7,904
12,433
884
383
5,175
1,002
2,248
10,549
19
318
1,892
908
8,840
1,762
2,469
1,736
5,566
162
25,200
100
149
6
3,968
143
39,215
2,817
339
102
2,004
1,393
21
12,219
1,935
3,463
4,407
2,541
1,112
236
596
1,002
210
8,081
9,117
225
1,508
269
1,194
590
293
150
7,671
12,323
844
337
5,121
942
2,273
10,508
19
306
1,964
859
9,080
1,750
2,396
1,700
5,488
146
25,330
70
141
6
4,017
127
39,623
2,831
331
103
1,984
1,394
22
12,501
1,978
3,584
4,487
2,642
1,069
207
606
1,007
192
8,294
9,273
210
1,483
246
1,197
604
297
142
7,612
12,457
819
301
5,160
903
2,320
10,594
20
299
2,044
830
9,410
1,770
2,372
1,705
5,496
135
25,842
62
132
6
4,085
112
40,108
2,844
322
104
1,962
1,384
23
12,781
2,015
3,691
4,553
2,745
1,032
181
615
1,004
176
8,481
9,365
194
1,455
227
1,202
617
300
134
7,589
12,525
793
267
5,187
870
2,353
10,657
20
292
2,100
801
9,712
1,788
2,350
1,708
5,491
127
26,222
64
189,259
188,432
190,747
192,766
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
109
7
4,239
82
42,253
2,903
301
107
1,900
1,341
21
13,825
2,115
3,990
4,732
3,042
962
117
641
977
139
8,907
9,483
153
1,382
195
1,228
659
309
114
7,709
12,733
700
188
5,248
795
2,414
10,856
21
272
2,212
719
10,591
1,849
2,316
1,717
5,472
112
27,104
97
103
7
4,286
76
43,074
2,923
295
108
1,880
1,324
19
14,222
2,143
4,079
4,781
3,118
946
100
649
975
129
9,021
9,489
140
1,359
191
1,238
672
312
108
7,796
12,790
663
166
5,258
776
2,427
10,916
21
265
2,249
690
10,811
1,869
2,313
1,718
5,470
110
27,377
105
97
7
4,331
73
43,917
2,942
290
109
1,862
1,307
19
14,636
2,169
4,164
4,825
3,189
935
84
657
977
122
9,127
9,477
129
1,336
190
1,248
684
315
103
7,902
12,843
623
147
5,263
758
2,436
10,972
21
258
2,286
661
11,016
1,888
2,314
1,718
5,469
108
27,638
110
91
7
4,373
71
44,822
2,961
284
110
1,844
1,288
18
15,071
2,193
4,245
4,865
3,257
926
71
665
983
116
9,225
9,451
118
1,315
193
1,260
695
317
97
8,025
12,891
581
130
5,265
743
2,442
11,028
21
250
2,323
630
11,209
1,907
2,318
1,718
5,469
108
27,889
113
86
7
4,416
70
45,794
2,982
279
111
1,829
1,270
19
15,526
2,216
4,326
4,905
3,323
922
59
673
994
111
9,319
9,414
108
1,295
199
1,272
706
320
92
8,168
12,939
536
115
5,267
731
2,444
11,085
22
242
2,354
600
11,396
1,926
2,326
1,719
5,470
109
28,141
114
199,362
201,559
203,750
205,992
208,343
(Million Pounds)
124
117
6
6
4,141
4,191
100
90
40,734
41,451
2,864
2,884
315
308
105
106
1,941
1,920
1,371
1,357
23
23
13,103
13,451
2,051
2,085
3,797
3,896
4,619
4,678
2,850
2,953
1,004
981
157
136
624
633
997
985
162
149
8,651
8,783
9,423
9,461
179
166
1,430
1,405
212
202
1,210
1,219
632
646
303
306
127
121
7,603
7,643
12,600
12,669
765
734
238
212
5,213
5,233
842
817
2,377
2,397
10,727
10,793
20
20
286
279
2,138
2,175
774
747
10,016
10,309
1,809
1,829
2,334
2,323
1,712
1,715
5,483
5,476
120
116
26,528
26,820
73
87
194,916
197,104
U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 131
U.S. All-Milk Prices by State
2009
2010
2011
2012
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
13.87
15.09
12.09
12.72
11.51
12.82
12.91
11.95
16.82
13.36
19.50
11.81
13.33
13.46
13.23
13.99
13.59
13.23
13.23
12.15
12.91
13.40
13.35
13.30
12.98
12.15
12.08
10.80
12.72
11.83
12.19
12.98
13.74
11.83
14.14
12.91
13.66
14.45
12.85
13.74
12.21
12.91
13.35
12.17
13.75
15.34
12.21
12.02
13.07
11.12
17.76
18.74
15.70
16.56
14.86
16.46
16.56
15.65
20.76
17.26
23.10
15.46
17.13
17.23
16.99
17.70
17.40
17.11
16.88
15.81
16.56
17.15
17.37
17.18
16.78
16.16
15.73
14.60
16.37
15.47
15.98
16.65
17.51
15.82
17.89
16.67
17.31
18.12
16.50
17.52
16.00
16.73
17.16
15.95
17.40
19.11
15.86
15.75
17.06
14.77
18.45
19.47
16.44
17.26
15.47
17.20
17.30
16.38
21.44
17.95
23.84
16.20
17.84
17.94
17.71
18.42
18.10
17.80
17.61
16.54
17.30
17.87
18.03
17.87
17.49
16.83
16.46
15.31
17.10
16.21
16.69
17.38
18.23
16.49
18.61
17.39
18.05
18.85
17.23
18.23
16.71
17.43
17.87
16.66
18.13
19.82
16.59
16.47
17.73
15.50
18.64
19.70
16.68
17.46
15.74
17.43
17.53
16.60
21.62
18.13
24.08
16.43
18.04
18.15
17.92
18.65
18.30
17.99
17.85
16.77
17.53
18.08
18.20
18.06
17.69
16.99
16.70
15.51
17.34
16.44
16.90
17.61
18.44
16.66
18.82
17.60
18.28
19.08
17.46
18.44
16.92
17.63
18.07
16.87
18.37
20.03
16.83
16.68
17.90
15.74
United States
12.79
16.48
17.17
17.39
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
(Dollars per Hundredweight)
18.82
19.02
19.31
19.90
20.12
20.41
16.88
17.11
17.40
17.64
17.85
18.14
15.95
16.19
16.48
17.63
17.85
18.14
17.73
17.95
18.24
16.79
17.01
17.30
21.79
22.00
22.28
18.31
18.52
18.81
24.28
24.51
24.80
16.63
16.85
17.14
18.23
18.44
18.73
18.34
18.55
18.84
18.11
18.32
18.61
18.84
19.06
19.35
18.49
18.70
18.99
18.17
18.38
18.67
18.04
18.27
18.56
16.97
17.19
17.48
17.73
17.95
18.24
18.27
18.49
18.78
18.37
18.57
18.85
18.24
18.45
18.73
17.88
18.09
18.38
17.16
17.36
17.65
16.89
17.12
17.41
15.70
15.91
16.20
17.53
17.76
18.05
16.64
16.86
17.15
17.08
17.30
17.59
17.80
18.03
18.32
18.63
18.84
19.13
16.83
17.03
17.32
19.01
19.23
19.52
17.79
18.00
18.29
18.47
18.70
18.99
19.28
19.50
19.79
17.66
17.88
18.18
18.63
18.84
19.13
17.10
17.32
17.61
17.82
18.03
18.32
18.25
18.47
18.75
17.06
17.27
17.56
18.56
18.78
19.08
20.22
20.43
20.72
17.02
17.24
17.54
16.88
17.09
17.38
18.07
18.27
18.56
15.93
16.16
16.45
19.54
20.66
17.64
18.37
16.72
18.38
18.48
17.54
22.51
19.04
25.04
17.38
18.96
19.08
18.85
19.59
19.22
18.90
18.80
17.72
18.48
19.01
19.07
18.96
18.61
17.87
17.65
16.43
18.29
17.39
17.82
18.56
19.36
17.54
19.75
18.53
19.23
20.03
18.42
19.36
17.84
18.55
18.99
17.79
19.32
20.96
17.78
17.62
18.78
16.69
19.68
20.81
17.80
18.51
16.89
18.54
18.64
17.69
22.65
19.17
25.20
17.53
19.11
19.23
19.00
19.74
19.37
19.04
18.96
17.87
18.64
19.16
19.21
19.10
18.76
18.00
17.81
16.58
18.44
17.55
17.97
18.71
19.51
17.67
19.90
18.68
19.38
20.18
18.57
19.51
17.99
18.70
19.13
17.94
19.47
21.11
17.93
17.77
18.91
16.85
19.86
21.01
18.00
18.70
17.11
18.74
18.84
17.89
22.82
19.35
25.41
17.73
19.30
19.41
19.19
19.93
19.55
19.22
19.16
18.07
18.84
19.35
19.37
19.28
18.95
18.17
18.00
16.77
18.64
17.75
18.15
18.91
19.70
17.84
20.09
18.87
19.58
20.38
18.77
19.70
18.17
18.88
19.32
18.13
19.67
21.30
18.13
17.96
19.08
17.05
20.05
21.22
18.22
18.89
17.34
18.95
19.05
18.10
23.00
19.54
25.62
17.94
19.49
19.61
19.39
20.14
19.75
19.41
19.37
18.28
19.05
19.55
19.55
19.47
19.14
18.35
18.21
16.96
18.85
17.96
18.35
19.12
19.90
18.02
20.29
19.07
19.79
20.59
18.98
19.90
18.37
19.08
19.51
18.32
19.88
21.50
18.34
18.17
19.26
17.26
18.31
18.45
18.64
18.84
17.58
2014
17.79
18.08
132 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Dairy Products
Fluid milk consumption is expected to return to the long-term declining trend. Lower retail milk prices boosted
consumption in 2009 relative to 2008. Fluid milk consumption changes are having smaller effects on producer
milk prices, as a smaller percentage of milk production is used for fluid purposes.
Total cheese per capita consumption has been flat at 32.5 pounds for the previous two years after decades of
strong growth. Per capita cheese consumption growth remains important to the overall dairy outlook. It reaches
34.2 pounds by 2019, an increase of 1.6 pounds from the 2009 level. This compares to a 4.7 pound increase over
the 1998-2008 period.
Exports of dairy products fell in 2009 as many global economies contracted. Economic recovery allows the
U.S. to commercially export dairy products over the baseline. From 2005 to 2008, over 43% of nonfat dry milk
production was consumed outside of U.S. borders. Trade in butter and cheese is normally small relative to
production.
U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 133
U.S. Dairy Product Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Butter
Production
Imports
Domestic Use
Total Foreign Use
Ending Stocks
Government
Commercial
CCC Net Rem. inc DEIP
1,560
13
1,515
37
141
0
141
0
1,551
13
1,588
45
73
0
73
0
1,572
13
1,556
31
70
0
70
0
1,591
13
1,565
38
71
0
71
0
(Million Pounds)
1,605
1,616
1,625
13
13
13
1,572
1,579
1,584
45
50
54
72
73
73
0
0
0
72
73
73
0
0
0
1,634
13
1,589
58
74
0
74
0
1,645
13
1,593
65
74
0
74
0
1,657
13
1,596
73
75
0
75
0
1,669
16
1,602
82
76
0
76
0
American Cheese
Production
Imports
Domestic Use
Total Foreign Use
Ending Stocks
Government
Commercial
CCC Net Rem. inc DEIP
4,178
38
4,074
85
595
0
595
0
4,234
38
4,207
104
555
0
555
0
4,322
38
4,247
109
560
0
560
0
4,389
38
4,302
115
570
0
570
0
4,458
38
4,366
120
581
0
580
0
4,527
38
4,429
125
591
0
591
0
4,598
38
4,495
130
601
0
601
0
4,669
38
4,561
136
612
0
612
0
4,743
38
4,628
141
624
0
624
0
4,816
38
4,695
147
636
0
635
0
4,891
38
4,765
153
647
0
647
0
Other Cheese
Production
Imports
Domestic Use
Total Foreign Use
Ending Stocks
5,925
330
5,951
217
400
5,937
333
6,111
212
347
6,045
337
6,163
216
350
6,096
340
6,271
228
287
6,201
343
6,310
232
289
6,291
347
6,394
239
295
6,384
350
6,485
245
300
6,475
354
6,571
252
305
6,564
357
6,655
261
310
6,653
361
6,740
269
316
6,748
365
6,830
277
322
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Imports
Domestic Use
Total Foreign Use
Ending Stocks
Government
Commercial
CCC Net Rem. inc DEIP
1,715
0
1,265
518
180
60
120
60
1,652
0
1,110
614
108
0
108
10
1,709
0
1,001
707
110
0
110
10
1,736
0
990
745
112
0
112
0
1,764
0
994
769
113
0
113
0
1,791
0
1,000
789
115
0
115
0
1,814
0
1,010
802
117
0
117
0
1,838
0
1,019
817
118
0
118
0
1,862
0
1,030
831
120
0
120
0
1,888
0
1,038
848
122
0
122
0
1,917
0
1,046
869
124
0
124
0
770
11
674
74
75
850
11
812
74
49
875
11
812
74
49
878
11
814
74
50
878
11
814
74
50
880
11
816
74
50
883
11
820
74
50
886
11
822
74
51
888
11
825
74
51
890
11
827
74
51
893
11
829
74
52
Evap. and Condensed Milk
Production
Imports
Domestic Use
Total Foreign Use
Ending Stocks
2014
134 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Dairy Product Supply and Utilization (continued)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Per Capita Consumption
Butter
Nonfat Dry Milk
Total Cheese
American
Other
Total Fluid Milk
Whole
2%
Lowfat
Other
Ice Cream
4.9
4.1
32.6
13.2
19.3
202.9
51.1
63.4
61.4
27.1
23.0
5.1
3.6
33.2
13.5
19.7
202.2
50.2
64.3
61.4
26.2
22.8
5.0
3.2
33.2
13.5
19.6
201.1
49.0
64.8
61.0
26.3
22.7
4.9
3.1
33.4
13.6
19.8
200.7
47.9
65.4
60.8
26.6
22.7
4.9
3.1
33.4
13.6
19.7
199.9
46.8
65.9
60.4
26.7
22.6
(Pounds)
4.9
3.1
33.5
13.7
19.8
199.5
45.8
66.5
60.2
27.0
22.5
4.9
3.1
33.7
13.8
19.9
199.3
44.8
67.1
60.0
27.4
22.5
4.8
3.1
33.8
13.8
20.0
198.9
43.7
67.7
59.8
27.7
22.4
4.8
3.1
33.9
13.9
20.0
198.4
42.7
68.3
59.5
27.9
22.3
4.8
3.1
34.1
14.0
20.1
197.9
41.7
68.9
59.3
28.2
22.2
4.7
3.1
34.2
14.1
20.2
197.6
40.7
69.4
59.0
28.5
22.1
Wholesale Prices
Butter, CME
Cheese, Am., 40#, CME
Nonfat Dry Milk, AA
Evaporated
124.3
129.6
99.3
145.8
137.3
168.5
122.9
151.3
145.9
173.0
128.2
154.0
145.8
174.1
133.1
155.9
(Cents per Pound)
145.1
146.3
175.6
177.3
136.5
139.2
157.8
160.0
149.4
179.8
141.3
162.2
151.7
181.6
143.6
164.2
153.8
182.6
145.1
165.9
156.1
183.9
147.3
167.8
158.0
185.3
149.8
169.7
4.74
2.87
4.32
5.17
3.42
4.45
5.34
3.50
4.47
5.47
3.52
4.46
(Dollars per Pound)
5.58
5.69
5.81
3.54
3.57
3.61
4.50
4.56
4.64
5.92
3.64
4.70
6.00
3.65
4.76
6.08
3.67
4.82
6.16
3.70
4.88
Retail Prices
Cheese, Natural Cheddar
Milk, Fresh, Whole Fortified
Ice Cream (half gallon)
U.S. AGGREGATE
MEASURES
136 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Land Use
Projected corn area planted increases in 2010, as expected returns for corn appear favorable compared to other
crops. Corn acreage surpasses 90 million acres in 2011 but remains below the 2007 peak.
Wheat area falls sharply in 2010 in response to lower wheat prices and weather conditions that inhibited winter
wheat seedings. Assuming a return to more normal weather, wheat area increases slightly in 2011 but then
resumes its long-term downward trend after 2012.
Soybean area dips slightly in 2010 but exceeds the 2009 record by 2016.
After three years of declining cotton acreage, higher cotton prices and reduced prospects for competing crops lead
to higher upland cotton area in 2010.
After a sharp decline in 2009, sorghum area rebounds in 2010 and then resumes its long-term decline. Barley
acreage and oat acreage also decline over the baseline, consistent with historical trends.
Rice area increased in 2008 and 2009 in response to high prices. Lower prices result in reduced rice area in 2010,
with short- and medium-grain rice experiencing the largest declines.
The total area planted to 13 major crops increased by 10 million acres between 2006 and 2008 and then declined
by 5 million acres in 2009 in response to weaker returns. The 13-crop total area planted declines another million
acres in 2010.
Correcting for hay, Conservation Reserve area, and double-crop soybean acreage, total area dropped by about 4
million acres in 2009. A further 2-million-acre decline is projected for 2010 as crop returns remain well below the
peak and some of the area leaving the Conservation Reserve Program is not expected to return to crop production.
The baseline assumes the conservation reserve area drops to 30 million acres by 2012, 2 million acres below the
statutory maximum. Many contracts expire over the next several years, so to retain this level of reserve acreage
will require new contracts or contract extensions.
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 137
U.S. Land Use for Major Crops
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
86.48
77.45
59.13
9.01
6.63
3.57
3.40
3.14
2.03
1.12
0.83
1.18
0.88
89.63
76.58
53.56
10.16
7.37
3.65
3.32
2.96
2.08
1.22
0.97
1.32
0.90
90.30
76.06
54.92
10.03
7.19
3.40
3.36
2.80
2.09
1.34
0.97
1.22
0.91
90.13
76.90
55.00
10.05
7.02
3.42
3.32
2.79
2.09
1.32
0.97
1.20
0.89
(Million Acres)
90.52
90.82
76.83
77.00
54.86
54.48
10.01
10.02
6.95
6.89
3.40
3.36
3.27
3.22
2.80
2.80
2.08
2.07
1.31
1.31
0.97
0.98
1.20
1.20
0.88
0.88
254.85
253.71
254.60
255.08
255.10
59.76
60.06
59.95
59.78
314.60
313.77
314.55
Conservation Reserve
33.78
31.18
13 Crops + Hay + CRP
348.38
Planted Area
Corn
Soybeans
Wheat
Upland Cotton
Sorghum
Barley
Oats
Rice
Sunflowers
Peanuts
Canola
Sugar Beet
Sugarcane
13 Crop Planted Area
Hay Harvested Area
13 Crops + Hay
Double Crop Area
Total Corrected
for Double Crop
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
90.91
77.28
54.02
10.02
6.84
3.31
3.18
2.79
2.08
1.30
0.98
1.21
0.88
90.89
77.49
53.86
10.07
6.78
3.24
3.13
2.78
2.09
1.30
1.00
1.20
0.88
90.86
77.77
53.60
10.14
6.75
3.19
3.09
2.78
2.09
1.30
1.02
1.20
0.88
90.95
77.95
53.35
10.19
6.73
3.13
3.04
2.79
2.10
1.29
1.04
1.20
0.87
90.64
78.31
53.11
10.27
6.65
3.08
3.01
2.82
2.10
1.29
1.05
1.20
0.87
255.04
254.78
254.71
254.66
254.64
254.41
59.62
59.45
59.35
59.29
59.25
59.21
59.16
314.86
314.71
314.49
314.13
314.00
313.91
313.85
313.56
30.50
30.00
30.00
30.00
30.00
30.00
30.00
30.00
30.00
344.95
345.05
344.87
344.71
344.49
344.13
344.00
343.92
343.85
343.57
4.83
3.39
4.44
4.48
4.47
4.45
4.43
4.43
4.42
4.41
4.40
343.55
341.55
340.61
340.39
340.24
340.04
339.70
339.57
339.49
339.43
339.16
138 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Food Prices and Expenditures
Food expenditures fell by 2.2% last year, the first annual decline since 1949. The largest reason for the decline is
the reduction in farm value for many products. Additionally, other non-food costs (such as labor, transportation,
marketing, and packaging) grew at a much slower rate than previous years. A more normal rate of expenditure
growth will resume in 2010.
The consumer price index for food consumed at home increased by 0.5% in 2009, following a 6.4% increase in
2008. Changes in food commodity prices take longer to affect the food-away-from-home sector. Likewise, the
higher proportion of non-food costs associated with dining out limits the effect of farm prices on food-away-fromhome inflation. Food inflation will average 3% from 2010 to 2012.
The current economic recession has most affected the prices consumers pay for meat and dairy products. The
financial difficulties faced by many producers in 2009 will lead to reduced supplies of meat and dairy products
during the next few years, causing prices to increase. Longer term, food price inflation closely tracks expectations
for the cost of labor, the largest component of food prices.
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 139
U.S. Consumer Price Indexes for Food
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Food
218.0
224.0
231.8
238.5
Food at Home
Cereal and Bakery
Meat
Dairy
Fruit and Vegetables
Other Food At Home
Sugar and Sweets
Fats and Oils
Other Prepared Items
Non-alc. Beverages
215.1
252.6
203.8
197.0
272.9
191.2
196.9
201.2
205.5
163.0
221.9
253.1
210.0
212.7
282.5
196.7
204.4
207.3
210.6
168.3
229.7
259.0
220.4
220.9
292.5
201.6
212.9
212.1
215.6
171.8
Food Away From Home
223.3
228.3
236.2
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
(1982-84=100)
243.9
249.0
254.1
259.1
263.9
268.7
273.5
236.1
264.1
229.4
224.6
301.6
206.0
217.7
217.2
220.1
175.6
241.3
268.9
234.6
227.9
310.3
210.1
222.1
221.4
224.3
179.6
246.2
273.8
238.2
231.5
319.2
214.4
226.7
225.8
228.6
183.6
251.1
278.6
241.6
235.6
328.2
218.3
230.7
230.0
232.7
187.2
255.8
283.2
245.0
239.5
337.0
222.1
234.7
234.2
236.7
190.6
260.4
287.5
248.7
242.9
345.2
225.6
238.5
238.1
240.4
193.6
265.0
291.6
253.1
246.2
353.1
229.0
242.1
241.8
244.1
196.5
269.3
295.4
257.3
249.2
360.7
232.3
245.5
245.3
247.6
199.3
243.3
248.9
254.1
259.4
264.7
269.8
275.0
280.1
U.S. Per Capita Consumer Expenditures for Food
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Food at Home
Food Away From Home
1,882
1,647
1,956
1,739
2,030
1,824
2,093
1,891
(Dollars per Person)
2,146
2,200
2,258
1,945
2,001
2,064
2,314
2,123
2,363
2,178
2,411
2,234
2,457
2,292
Total
3,529
3,696
3,854
3,984
4,091
4,322
4,437
4,541
4,646
4,748
1,086.3
1,148.8
1,209.7
1,262.6
(Billion Dollars)
1,309.0 1,357.2 1,409.7
1,461.2
1,509.9
1,559.4
1,608.9
Aggregate Total
2014
4,201
140 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Government Costs
Net CCC outlays were flat in FY 2009, as reduced disaster spending was offset by increased spending on cotton
and other commodities. Projected spending drops to around $10 billion in FY 2010 and FY 2011.
The first payments under the ACRE program occur in October 2010, which is part of FY 2011. The last tobacco
trust fund payments are made in FY 2014.
Mandatory government outlays under the crop insurance program, the Supplemental Revenue Assistance
Payments (SURE) program, and certain conservation programs are not included in the CCC account.
Crop insurance outlays vary with the weather and crop prices. Crop insurance outlays dip in FY 2012 because of
mandated changes in when producers pay premiums and when providers are reimbursed for expenses.
CRP spending reflects changes in CRP area under contract and increased rental rates when new contracts are
signed.
For other mandatory conservation programs, projected expenditures are based on preliminary estimates from the
Congressional Budget Office.
Provisions of the 2008 farm bill lead to increased spending on the Conservation Stewardship Program, the
Environmental Quality Incentive Program, and other conservation programs.
Projected direct payments far exceed marketing loan benefits, countercyclical payments, and Average Crop
Revenue Election (ACRE) program payments.
Projected prices in this deterministic baseline are too high to result in marketing loan benefits or countercyclical
payments for most crops in most years.
The table reports results of deterministic analysis that projects one particular path for each variable. FAPRI-MU
also conducts stochastic analysis that looks at a broader range of possible market outcomes. In the stochastic
analysis, prices and per acre revenues sometimes drop enough to trigger spending on the marketing loan,
countercyclical payment, and ACRE programs. Thus, average government spending in the stochastic analysis
exceeds these deterministic estimates.
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 141
U.S. Net Government Outlays
2009
2010
2011
2012
Feed Grains
Corn
Sorghum
Barley
Oats
2,175
197
84
3
2,028
183
73
3
1,917
183
74
4
1,518
142
65
3
Food Grains
Wheat
Rice
1,224
411
1,115
494
1,326
403
1,016
318
1,085
417
1,059
416
596
98
23
582
97
17
557
106
27
546
61
25
570
73
19
Other Commodities
Upland Cotton
Sugar
Dairy
2,176
0
994
1,677
0
55
1,218
0
8
956
0
0
CCC Conservation
Conservation Reserve
Other CCC Conservation
1,916
10
1,887
23
1,878
17
Tobacco Trust Fund
1,130
960
155
367
Oilseeds
Soybeans
Peanuts
Other Oilseeds
Other
Disaster Payments, NAP
Other Net Costs
Net CCC Outlays
NRCS Conservation
Supplemental
Revenue (SURE)
Crop Insurance
Total Mandatory Outlays
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
(Million U.S. Dollars, Fiscal Year)
1,964
1,959
1,960
186
186
186
74
74
74
3
3
3
1,972
186
74
3
1,946
186
74
3
1,945
186
74
3
1,944
186
74
3
1,056
416
1,060
416
1,068
416
1,063
416
1,074
416
568
74
19
566
74
19
555
74
19
552
74
19
555
74
20
558
74
19
1,265
0
0
1,208
0
0
1,140
0
0
1,018
0
0
908
0
0
809
0
0
732
0
0
2,088
14
2,276
12
2,512
1
2,528
1
2,566
1
2,612
1
2,685
1
2,801
1
960
780
960
960
0
0
0
0
0
100
1,086
100
1,255
100
1,003
100
881
100
806
100
793
100
786
100
785
100
793
100
795
11,561
10,381
10,033
8,634
9,885
9,945
8,917
8,829
8,743
8,723
8,777
1,582
2,971
3,343
3,753
3,736
3,713
3,741
4,073
4,300
4,471
4,603
0
1,147
600
600
600
600
600
600
600
600
600
7,962
5,187
8,449
6,193
8,862
9,042
9,204
9,367
9,452
9,584
9,688
21,105
19,686
22,424
19,180
23,083
23,300
22,462
22,869
23,096
23,378
23,668
Note: "NRCS Conservation" denotes mandatory spending on conservation programs authorized by the 2002 farm bill that is not included in
142 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Cash Receipts from Farm Marketings
Cash receipts from sales of program crops (grains, oilseeds, cotton, and sugar) almost doubled between 2005 and
2008.
Prices of most program crops declined in calendar year 2009, resulting in lower cash receipts. Program crop
receipts begin to rise again in 2012 because of increasing yields and prices for most crops.
Total receipts from sales of non-program crops (hay, fruits, nuts, vegetables, nursery crops, and other specialty
crops) have shown less volatility than sales of program crops. Receipts from those crops are expected to rise after
a very small dip in 2009.
Lower prices resulted in lower cash receipts for every major livestock category in 2009, with dairy experiencing
the largest decline.
Dairy and livestock receipts increase in 2010 and later years, as the assumed recovery in the U.S. and global
economies leads to increased demand for animal products.
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 143
U.S. Cash Receipts from Farming
2009
2010
2011
2012
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
285.01
299.38
309.67
321.13
(Billion U.S. Dollars)
327.63
334.59
342.41
349.82
356.77
364.66
371.70
166.25
168.48
169.01
174.14
178.55
183.41
188.66
193.40
197.63
202.14
205.81
Feed Grains and Hay
Corn
Sorghum
Barley
Oats
Hay
Millet
49.47
40.74
1.40
1.05
0.12
6.10
0.07
53.10
44.96
1.28
0.84
0.11
5.83
0.07
53.34
45.25
1.31
0.79
0.12
5.81
0.07
54.70
46.61
1.29
0.80
0.12
5.83
0.07
56.05
47.88
1.28
0.82
0.12
5.89
0.07
57.69
49.43
1.29
0.82
0.12
5.97
0.07
59.36
50.94
1.30
0.83
0.12
6.11
0.07
60.77
52.17
1.31
0.82
0.11
6.29
0.07
61.84
53.05
1.32
0.81
0.11
6.48
0.07
63.09
54.11
1.33
0.81
0.11
6.66
0.07
63.77
54.64
1.32
0.80
0.11
6.83
0.07
Food Grains
Wheat
Rice
Rye
14.93
11.79
3.12
0.02
11.98
9.40
2.56
0.02
11.56
9.53
2.01
0.02
11.80
9.82
1.96
0.02
12.03
10.03
1.98
0.02
12.09
10.07
1.99
0.02
12.22
10.19
2.01
0.02
12.39
10.36
2.01
0.02
12.48
10.45
2.01
0.02
12.64
10.57
2.04
0.02
12.66
10.55
2.09
0.02
Oilseeds
Soybeans
Peanuts
Other
32.93
30.68
1.11
1.13
31.67
29.85
0.94
0.88
30.17
28.23
1.06
0.88
31.58
29.57
1.11
0.89
32.37
30.34
1.12
0.91
33.21
31.16
1.14
0.92
34.13
32.03
1.16
0.93
34.97
32.83
1.18
0.96
35.84
33.67
1.19
0.98
36.68
34.47
1.21
1.01
37.37
35.12
1.22
1.03
Cotton
Sugar
Other Crops *
3.81
2.70
62.42
4.91
2.76
64.07
5.33
2.54
66.07
5.40
2.51
68.15
5.50
2.55
70.04
5.63
2.61
72.17
5.80
2.67
74.48
5.97
2.71
76.61
6.15
2.74
78.58
6.32
2.77
80.63
6.50
2.81
82.71
118.75
130.90
140.66
146.99
149.08
151.18
153.75
156.42
159.13
162.52
165.89
Red Meats
Cattle, Calves
Hogs
Sheep, Lambs
57.27
42.52
14.32
0.44
61.43
45.31
15.69
0.44
67.48
49.61
17.43
0.44
71.23
52.46
18.34
0.44
71.33
52.89
18.00
0.44
71.45
53.15
17.86
0.44
71.82
53.53
17.85
0.44
72.43
54.11
17.88
0.44
73.31
54.53
18.34
0.44
74.61
55.12
19.06
0.44
75.90
55.67
19.79
0.44
Dairy Products
24.06
30.88
32.58
33.35
34.09
34.90
35.86
36.72
37.42
38.22
39.07
Poultry, Eggs
Broilers
Turkeys
Chicken Eggs
Other Poultry
32.63
21.67
3.62
6.49
0.85
33.50
22.07
3.76
6.89
0.78
35.26
23.25
3.99
7.31
0.71
36.89
24.44
4.20
7.61
0.63
38.05
25.30
4.34
7.85
0.56
39.14
26.16
4.48
8.02
0.48
40.27
27.11
4.60
8.16
0.40
41.36
28.05
4.68
8.30
0.33
42.39
28.98
4.75
8.40
0.25
43.54
30.01
4.85
8.51
0.17
44.64
30.98
4.94
8.63
0.08
4.79
5.08
5.34
5.52
5.61
5.70
5.80
5.91
6.02
6.15
6.28
12.90
11.65
11.49
11.61
11.95
11.98
11.04
11.17
11.28
11.44
11.60
297.90
311.03
321.16
332.74
339.58
346.57
353.45
361.00
368.04
376.10
383.30
Cash Receipts
Crops
Livestock and Products
Other Livestock †
Government Payments
Cash Receipts + Payments
* Includes tobacco, vegetables and melons, fruits and tree nuts, and other crops.
† Includes horses, mules, and aquaculture.
2013
2014
144 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Farm Production Expenses
Farm production expenses increased sharply between 2002 and 2008, primarily because of large increases in
spending on fertilizer, fuel, and feed.
Lower prices for these key inputs resulted in lower farm expenditures in 2009. Fertilizer and fuel expenditures
each declined by about $6 billion in 2009. These reductions were partially offset by higher spending on seed,
hired labor, and rental payments to non-operator landlords. Overall, farm production expenses declined by about
$9 billion in 2009.
Rising prices for energy and other inputs result in resumed growth in production expenses in 2010. All major
expense categories increase over time, and total production expenses increase from $281 billion in 2009 to $352
billion in 2011.
The overall rate of increase in production expenses is roughly equal to the general rate of inflation in the U.S.
economy, about 2% per year. This is a sharply lower rate of growth in production expenses than experienced
between 2002 and 2008, when expenses increased at an average rate of 7% per year.
Production expenses will continue to be sensitive to any changes in energy prices and interest rates, as well as to
all the factors that determine agricultural production and commodity prices.
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 145
U.S. Farm Production Expenses
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Farm-Origin Inputs
Feed
Purchased Livestock
Seed
77.56
44.27
16.10
17.19
78.21
42.98
17.11
18.12
80.57
43.07
18.82
18.68
83.22
43.93
20.08
19.21
(Billion U.S. Dollars)
84.75
86.38
87.97
44.68
45.62
46.55
20.29
20.44
20.50
19.78
20.32
20.92
89.38
47.35
20.61
21.41
90.42
47.97
20.59
21.85
91.62
48.63
20.68
22.30
92.56
49.08
20.79
22.69
Manufactured Inputs
Fertilizer, Lime
Petroleum Fuel, Oils
Electricity
Pesticides
43.74
16.36
10.57
4.68
12.13
44.85
15.63
11.60
4.77
12.85
47.74
16.62
12.77
4.96
13.40
49.24
17.02
13.36
5.08
13.77
50.50
17.37
13.82
5.20
14.11
51.85
17.86
14.30
5.33
14.36
53.88
18.81
14.95
5.51
14.61
55.26
19.28
15.52
5.66
14.80
56.15
19.51
15.86
5.79
14.98
57.03
19.79
16.15
5.91
15.18
57.65
20.10
16.18
6.01
15.36
Interest Charges
Short-Term Interest
Real Estate Interest
15.29
6.57
8.72
16.32
7.06
9.26
17.57
7.82
9.75
18.91
8.64
10.27
19.75
9.02
10.73
21.26
9.91
11.35
22.17
10.31
11.86
22.78
10.50
12.27
23.28
10.65
12.63
23.76
10.80
12.97
24.22
10.93
13.30
Other Operating Exp.
Repair, Operation
of Capital Items
Contract, Hired Labor
Machine Hire
Custom Work
Marketing, Storage,
and Transportation
Miscellaneous
92.35
94.48
97.30
99.17
101.55
104.14
107.13
109.88
112.45
115.07
117.47
14.72
30.55
15.06
31.15
15.42
31.82
15.66
32.24
16.03
33.04
16.45
34.03
16.88
35.13
17.29
36.21
17.71
37.31
18.14
38.45
18.56
39.58
3.87
3.99
4.11
4.18
4.28
4.37
4.48
4.59
4.70
4.82
4.95
10.07
33.14
10.51
33.76
11.04
34.92
11.38
35.70
11.65
36.55
11.92
37.37
12.25
38.40
12.54
39.25
12.77
39.96
12.98
40.67
13.11
41.27
Other Overhead Exp.
Capital Consumption
Property Taxes
Rent to Nonoperators
51.78
29.84
11.25
10.69
52.42
30.50
11.68
10.23
53.03
31.02
12.07
9.94
53.68
31.47
12.43
9.78
54.58
31.88
12.76
9.94
55.53
32.34
13.07
10.13
56.31
32.75
13.35
10.22
57.04
33.13
13.62
10.30
57.88
33.52
13.87
10.49
58.85
33.96
14.12
10.77
59.89
34.46
14.38
11.05
Production Expenses
280.71
286.29
296.20
304.22
311.13
319.17
327.47
334.33
340.18
346.33
351.79
Noncash Expenses
Labor Perquisites
Net Cap Consumption
27.60
0.75
26.85
28.26
0.75
27.51
28.78
0.75
28.03
29.23
0.75
28.48
29.65
0.76
28.89
30.11
0.76
29.35
30.52
0.77
29.76
30.91
0.77
30.14
31.31
0.78
30.53
31.75
0.78
30.97
32.25
0.79
31.47
5.29
5.33
5.43
5.54
5.65
5.75
5.85
5.94
6.03
6.13
6.23
247.82
252.70
261.99
269.45
275.83
283.30
291.09
297.48
302.84
308.44
313.30
Op. Dwelling Expenses
Cash Expenses
2014
146 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Prices Paid by Farmers
Strong demand caused by high crop prices and production, high energy prices, and a variety of other factors
contributed to the sharp increase in fertilizer prices in 2008. Fuel and fertilizer prices retreated in 2009 in part as a
result of lower farm commodity prices and the sharp drop in energy prices.
Projected fuel prices increase with oil prices after 2009. Fertilizer prices drop slightly in 2010 but then generally
increase with energy prices.
Prices paid for all farm production items dipped in 2009, but they increase at an average pace of about 2% per
year between 2010 and 2019.
Fuel prices remain a major source of uncertainty in the baseline. Changes in petroleum and natural gas prices
directly affect fuel and energy costs to producers and have at least secondary effects on many other cost
categories.
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 147
U.S. Indices of Prices Paid by Farmers
Production, Interest,
Taxes and Wages
Production Items
Feed
Livestock & Poultry
Seeds
Fertilizer
Mixed Fertilizer
Nitrogen Fertilizer
Potash and Phosph.
Agricultural Chemicals
Herbicides
Insecticides
Fungicides/Other
Fuels
Supplies & Repairs
Farm Supplies
Repairs
Autos & Trucks
Farm Machinery
Building Materials
Farm Services
Rent
Interest *
Taxes †
Wage Rates
2009
2010
2011
2012
177
179
187
115
299
289
280
274
363
146
140
154
161
228
157
153
159
110
223
163
148
160
154
234
187
175
177
176
123
287
241
232
233
284
159
154
163
174
219
161
158
162
125
214
166
155
167
146
220
186
188
190
176
130
356
251
251
229
307
172
165
175
190
238
170
167
172
128
245
178
162
187
167
250
212
191
192
179
134
370
261
263
235
327
171
163
172
199
248
167
163
170
124
249
179
165
172
191
270
210
2013
2014
(1990-92=100)
191
196
191
197
182
187
135
136
350
351
232
258
236
254
204
245
291
308
180
178
172
171
180
178
208
201
241
319
174
173
170
167
176
176
128
128
244
250
186
184
169
167
167
169
206
220
267
256
207
204
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
210
213
190
136
454
294
270
313
314
196
187
189
232
286
191
185
194
131
278
194
178
198
230
282
227
202
202
191
137
384
264
252
266
290
173
164
173
208
306
182
174
186
117
249
190
176
183
239
265
202
200
200
190
138
353
264
269
242
311
178
174
167
206
304
175
168
179
124
240
191
176
180
246
251
186
207
208
190
139
345
327
268
399
303
174
167
174
201
313
181
168
187
117
267
190
183
186
220
258
213
216
215
190
140
371
316
286
347
319
190
179
198
218
293
187
170
195
127
295
197
195
202
232
284
245
* Interest per acre on farm real estate debt and interest rate on farm non-real estate debt.
† Farm real estate taxes payable per acre.
U.S. Indices of Prices Paid by Farmers (percent change)
Production, Interest,
Taxes and Wages
Production Items
Feed
Livestock & Poultry
Seeds
Fertilizer
Mixed Fertilizer
Nitrogen Fertilizer
Potash and Phosph.
Agricultural Chemicals
Herbicides
Insecticides
Fungicides/Other
Fuels
Supplies & Repairs
Farm Supplies
Repairs
Autos & Trucks
Farm Machinery
Building Materials
Farm Services
Rent
Interest *
Taxes †
Wage Rates
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
-2.7
-4.7
-3.8
-7.4
15.5
-26.3
-26.0
-26.6
-26.3
5.2
7.6
-1.3
7.5
-33.8
1.8
2.7
1.7
1.5
6.6
-1.2
1.4
3.9
9.2
10.4
2.2
-1.2
-1.5
-5.4
7.2
-4.0
-16.5
-16.9
-14.8
-21.7
8.8
9.9
5.7
7.9
-3.8
2.4
3.4
1.9
13.9
-3.9
1.9
4.7
4.5
-5.5
-6.1
-0.6
7.3
7.6
-0.4
5.2
23.8
4.0
8.1
-1.7
8.0
7.9
7.3
7.8
9.2
8.6
5.9
5.6
6.1
2.6
14.4
7.1
4.5
12.1
14.8
13.8
13.8
1.7
1.0
1.9
3.4
3.9
4.1
4.8
2.4
6.5
-0.5
-1.5
-1.7
5.0
4.3
-1.6
-2.5
-1.2
-3.5
1.7
0.6
1.7
-8.4
14.0
8.0
-0.8
(Percentage Change)
0.1
2.5
7.2
-0.6
3.2
8.4
1.5
2.6
1.6
1.0
0.6
0.2
-5.3
0.2
29.4
-11.2
11.6
13.7
-10.3
7.6
6.3
-13.3
20.2
27.7
-10.9
5.7
2.0
5.4
-1.2
10.0
6.0
-0.6
9.4
4.2
-0.9
6.5
4.3
-3.4
15.5
-3.1
32.8
-10.4
3.9
-0.5
10.2
4.3
-1.7
10.6
3.6
0.1
10.0
3.3
0.0
2.5
-2.0
2.5
11.2
3.9
-1.1
5.5
2.8
-1.3
6.3
-2.6
1.1
17.4
7.8
7.3
4.5
-1.1
-4.3
10.5
-1.6
-1.0
10.8
-3.8
-5.1
0.6
0.3
-15.3
-10.3
-6.7
-15.1
-7.7
-11.7
-12.7
-8.6
-10.3
6.8
-4.5
-6.0
-3.9
-10.7
-10.5
-2.0
-1.0
-7.6
3.9
-6.3
-11.0
-1.0
-1.2
-0.2
0.8
-8.2
0.3
6.7
-8.7
7.4
2.8
6.3
-3.4
-1.2
-0.6
-3.7
-3.3
-4.0
6.3
-3.4
0.8
0.3
-1.7
2.9
-5.2
-7.7
3.5
3.9
-0.1
0.9
-2.1
23.7
-0.1
64.5
-2.8
-2.0
-3.9
3.8
-2.1
3.0
3.2
0.3
4.6
-5.9
10.9
-0.9
3.9
3.2
-10.7
2.8
14.6
4.4
3.5
-0.2
0.9
7.4
-3.5
6.5
-12.9
5.3
8.9
6.8
13.9
8.4
-6.5
3.3
0.9
4.4
8.9
10.6
3.6
6.4
8.8
5.4
10.3
14.9
* Interest per acre on farm real estate debt and interest rate on farm non-real estate debt.
† Farm real estate taxes payable per acre.
2014
148 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Net Farm Income
Net farm income fell by more than $30 billion in 2009, as the large decline in cash receipts far outweighed a
modest reduction in production expenses. Projected net farm income increases in 2010 and 2011, largely because
of a stronger livestock sector outlook.
Uncertainty around these projections is great. U.S. and global economic growth, energy prices, the weather, and
other factors could result in a very different picture.
Gross cash income (sales receipts and government payments) fell sharply in 2009 but begins to recover in 2010
because of higher livestock receipts. Cash expenses also begin to increase again in 2010.
Net cash income, the difference between gross cash income and cash expenses, begins to increase again in 2010
but remains well below the 2008 peak level.
Both crop and livestock sales receipts declined in 2009. Livestock receipts resume their increase in 2010, while
crop receipts are fairly constant for 2009 to 2011.
Government payments in the projection are a modest share of gross farm income.
Adjusting for inflation, real net farm income is relatively flat after 2012 and remains far below the 2008 level.
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 149
U.S. Farm Income Statistics
2009
2010
2011
2012
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
305.70
166.25
118.75
20.69
321.64
168.48
130.90
22.26
333.17
169.01
140.66
23.50
345.09
174.14
146.99
23.96
(Billion U.S. Dollars)
352.06
359.47
367.78
178.55
183.41
188.66
149.08
151.18
153.75
24.43
24.88
25.36
375.55
193.40
156.42
25.73
382.87
197.63
159.13
26.11
391.15
202.14
162.52
26.49
398.49
205.81
165.89
26.79
12.90
11.65
11.49
11.61
11.95
11.98
11.04
11.17
11.28
11.44
11.60
318.60
333.29
344.66
356.70
364.01
371.45
378.81
386.73
394.15
402.59
410.09
4. Nonmoney Income
20.32
20.46
21.00
21.64
22.19
22.74
23.18
23.57
23.96
24.40
24.89
5. Value of Inventory
Change
-1.84
-1.61
-0.02
0.35
0.80
1.04
0.99
0.99
0.87
0.80
0.66
6. Gross Farm Income
(3 + 4 + 5)
337.08
352.13
365.63
378.68
386.99
395.23
402.99
411.28
418.98
427.79
435.64
7. Cash Expenses †
247.82
252.70
261.99
269.45
275.83
283.30
291.09
297.48
302.84
308.44
313.30
8. Total Expenses
280.71
286.29
296.20
304.22
311.13
319.17
327.47
334.33
340.18
346.33
351.79
9. Net Cash Income
(3 - 7)
70.77
80.59
82.66
87.25
88.17
88.15
87.72
89.24
91.31
94.15
96.79
10. Realized Net Farm Income
(3 + 4 - 8)
58.21
67.46
69.46
74.11
75.07
75.02
74.53
75.96
77.93
80.67
83.19
11. Net Farm Income
(6 - 8)
Deflated (2009 $) ‡
56.37
65.84
69.43
74.46
75.86
76.06
75.52
76.95
78.80
81.47
83.85
56.37
65.16
67.61
71.46
71.48
70.40
68.61
68.67
69.03
70.05
70.84
1. Farm Receipts
Crops
Livestock
Farm-Related *
2. Government Payments
3. Gross Cash Income
(1 + 2)
2013
2014
* Income from machine hire, custom work, sales of forest products, and other miscellaneous cash sources.
† Excludes capital consumption, perquisites to hired labor, and farm household expenses.
‡ Deflated by the GNP price deflator, 1997=1.
150 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Crop Insurance
For the first time since 2006, crop insurance acreage failed to expand. The number of net acres insured in 2009
fell to 264.58 million acres. Although more crops and areas are being covered by crop insurance, the drop in
acreage reflects a decline in participation in coverage for pasture and rangeland. However, this acreage reduction
is expected to be a short-lived occurrence as covered area is projected to increase over the next few years.
Total premiums declined to $8.94 billion in 2009, as several insurance prices fell from their lofty 2008 levels.
Projected prices over the next decade suggest that crop insurance premiums and liabilities will remain higher than
historical averages. The continuation of relatively higher crop prices over the projection period will likely keep
total premium levels in the $9 billion to $10 billion range.
Premium subsidies fell to $5.42 billion in 2009. As with premiums, the lower crop prices coincide with lower
premium subsidy levels. But there were also significant changes in subsidy rates for 2009 based on insurance unit
structure. Producers shifted their coverage to maintain premium subsidies, resulting in premium subsidies falling
less dramatically than premiums. Over the projection period, premium subsidies are expected to increase to over
$6 billion.
Despite the planting and harvesting issues producers faced in 2009, the 2009 crop year marked the seventh year
in a row in which premiums exceeded indemnities. Over the projection period, total indemnities follow a pattern
similar to that of total premiums. Loss ratios of one indicate that “actuarially fair” premiums are being charged for
the insurance products. These projections show that, overall, federal crop insurance will meet the loss ratio targets
set by Congress.
Total obligations represent the federal government’s financial responsibility to crop insurance. They are the costs
for crop insurance before considering any crop insurance revenues. Total obligations are equal to the sum of
indemnities, delivery expenses, administrative and operating expenses, agent commissions, and other expenses.
Total obligations for FY 2011 and beyond are projected to reach between $12 billion and $13 billion.
Net outlays take underwriting costs and crop insurance revenues into account. Net outlays are estimated to
average nearly $9 billion from FY 2011 to FY 2019. Outlays are expected to rise until 2012 when the crop
insurance premium timing is shifted forward, as required by the 2008 farm bill.
Budget authority is the amount the law allows the federal government to spend on a program. For crop insurance,
it represents net outlays on a crop-year basis. Budget authority for FY 2011 is projected at $8 billion. Budget
authority projections follow a pattern similar to that of net outlays.
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 151
t
U.S. Crop Insurance
2009
2010
2011
2012
676.20
264.58
674.62
270.45
675.45
272.72
676.02
274.01
39.13
40.09
40.38
40.53
Total Premiums
Producer-Paid Premiums
Premium Subsidies
Total Indemnities
8.94
3.52
5.42
5.81
8.99
3.53
5.46
8.99
9.32
3.63
5.69
9.32
9.50
3.70
5.81
9.50
Loss Ratio
0.65
1.00
1.00
1.00
12.11
7.96
6.84
8.46
5.19
6.15
11.82
8.45
8.35
12.27
6.19
5.05
Eligible Acres
Net Acres Insured
Crop Insurance
Participation Rate
Total Obligations
Net Outlays
Budget Authority
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
(Million Acres)
676.03
675.98
675.71
274.47
274.74
274.74
675.63
274.86
675.56
274.97
675.52
275.10
675.27
275.04
40.66
40.68
40.70
40.72
40.73
(Billion U.S. Dollars, Crop Year)
9.70
9.88
10.05
3.77
3.84
3.91
5.93
6.03
6.14
9.70
9.88
10.05
10.14
3.95
6.20
10.14
10.29
4.00
6.28
10.29
10.40
4.05
6.35
10.40
10.41
4.05
6.36
10.41
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
(Billion U.S. Dollars, Fiscal Year)
12.51
12.77
13.00
8.86
9.04
9.20
8.78
8.97
9.13
13.23
9.37
9.33
13.35
9.45
9.40
13.54
9.58
9.54
13.68
9.69
9.68
40.60
1.00
2014
(Percent)
40.64
1.00
WORLD WHEAT
154 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Wheat
The world wheat price decreases to $216.08 per mt in 2009/10 because of larger crop production in key importing
countries, which lowers import demand. It is projected to decrease again in 2010/11. With an average annual
growth rate of 0.34% over the next 10 years, the wheat price reaches $222.72 per mt in 2019/20. The stocks-touse ratio increased to 30.4% in 2009/10. It is projected to fall to 28.9% in 2010/11 and to decline throughout the
projection period as consumption increases. It reaches 26.4% by 2019/20.
World wheat area increased by 0.75 mha in 2009/10. It decreases in 2010/11 and 2011/12 and increases slightly
through the remainder of the projection period. In 2009/10, world wheat production declined despite an area
increase because of a decline in yields. Production increases starting in 2010/11 and reaches 718.8 mmt in
2019/20. Yield growth is the major factor in increasing wheat production over the next 10 years. Consumption
grows 1.07% annually on average, reaching 717.9 mmt in 2019/20.
World wheat net trade decreases in 2009/10 to 97.9 mmt because of larger crops in key wheat importing countries.
It increases to 103.1 mmt in 2010/11. Net trade grows 1.63% annually on average, reaching 115 mmt in 2019/20.
Record yields and more planted area increased EU wheat production and net exports in 2008/09. Production
declined in 2009/10 with decreases in area and yields. Food and industrial use reaches 81 mmt by 2019/20, while
feed use reaches 62.8 mmt. Net exports decline to 11.3 mmt in 2010/11 and reach 12.6 mmt in 2019/20.
An increase in area allows Argentine wheat production and net exports to rise in 2010/11. In Argentina,
production growth comes from yield growth and a modest area increase over the next 10 years. Production
reaches 15.2 mmt in 2019/20. Aided by the production growth and a meager consumption increase, Argentine net
exports reach 9.5 mmt in 2019/20.
A decline in wheat area drops Canadian production to 24.7 mmt and reduces net exports to 16.0 mmt in 2010/11.
Net exports reach 16.1 mmt by 2019/20. Consumption reaches 9.0 mmt in 2019/20, driven by growth in feed use
and demand by the ethanol sector.
An increase in yields pushes Australian production up to 24.1 mmt in 2010/11 and to 26.6 mmt in 2019/20.
Production grows more than consumption, and net exports reach 18.4 mmt in 2019/20.
Net imports of Asian countries decline by 2.3 mmt over the next 10 years as production increases. China remains
a net exporter of wheat, with net exports reaching 2.98 mmt in 2019/20. Japan’s net imports reach 5 mmt in
2019/20. India and Pakistan become small net exporters of wheat in 2010/11 and are projected to remain small net
exporters over the next 10 years.
Wheat production in Brazil decreased in 2009/10 to 5.0 mmt because of a decline in yields. It is projected to
increase to 5.2 mmt in 2010/11 and to increase moderately throughout the projection period. Consumption
grows 1.2% annually on average, reaching 12.1 mmt in 2019/20 because of population growth. Brazil’s wheat
net imports reach 6.2 mmt in 2019/20. Mexican wheat net imports decrease slightly in 2009/10 since production
increases more than consumption. Net imports reach 3.7 mmt in 2019/20. Rising per capita consumption,
combined with population growth, is the main source of the demand increase.
Population growth drives the increase in consumption and net imports in African and Middle Eastern countries,
as their per capita consumption is projected to decline over the next 10 years. Their wheat net imports reach
59.8 mmt in 2019/20. Egypt’s net imports reach 11.65 mmt in 2019/20 with an increase in food use. Algerian net
imports reach 6.95 mmt in 2019/20.
World Wheat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 155
Wheat Trade
Net Exporters
Argentina
Australia
Canada
European Union
Other CIS *
Russia
Ukraine
United States
Total Net Exports †
Net Importers
Algeria
Brazil
China
Egypt
India
Iran
Japan
Mexico
Morocco
Other Africa/Middle East
Other Asia
Other Eastern Europe ‡
Other Latin America
Pakistan
South Korea
Taiwan
Tunisia
Rest of World
Residual
Total Net Imports
Wheat Prices
U.S. FOB Gulf
Canadian Wheat Board
AWB Limited Export Quote
European Union Market
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
2,495
14,925
18,100
12,500
7,623
16,281
15,958
11,288
8,013
16,750
15,607
11,785
3,325
17,800
8,900
19,483
2,929
15,083
8,404
22,668
97,928
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
8,368
16,816
15,637
12,477
(Thousand Metric Tons)
8,651
8,813
8,828
17,382
17,549
17,671
15,944
16,084
16,030
12,497
12,618
12,805
8,866
17,743
16,020
12,602
9,026
17,952
16,069
12,807
9,218
18,157
16,103
12,874
9,539
18,384
16,087
12,554
2,104
14,979
8,715
23,622
2,272
15,168
9,459
22,273
2,361
15,636
9,666
22,205
2,554
16,438
9,901
21,611
2,723
16,805
10,367
21,554
2,926
17,281
10,595
21,591
3,057
17,582
10,835
21,387
3,082
17,986
11,009
21,445
3,337
18,563
11,260
20,964
103,085
104,387
105,656
107,308
108,979
110,386
111,167
112,725
113,790
115,001
5,275
4,700
-400
8,790
50
4,450
4,875
1,900
1,700
28,133
18,025
700
8,263
0
3,600
1,075
1,400
1,525
3,467
6,504
5,728
-2,167
9,714
-385
1,913
5,364
2,605
4,082
27,716
17,678
789
8,596
-298
3,920
1,136
1,752
2,121
3,467
6,201
5,773
-2,184
9,833
-347
2,062
5,342
3,100
4,190
28,123
17,741
823
8,644
-280
4,007
1,132
1,777
2,171
3,467
6,271
5,802
-2,486
10,121
-189
2,172
5,228
3,013
4,293
28,653
17,862
814
8,741
-510
4,079
1,147
1,824
2,167
3,467
6,344
5,834
-2,137
10,338
-210
2,214
5,184
3,125
4,369
29,529
18,000
804
8,807
-619
4,126
1,155
1,836
2,176
3,467
6,465
5,922
-2,372
10,584
-431
2,236
5,162
3,122
4,487
30,049
18,276
815
8,949
-609
4,172
1,170
1,887
2,217
3,467
6,556
5,944
-2,402
10,800
-586
2,188
5,130
3,233
4,641
30,692
18,337
821
9,044
-615
4,184
1,176
1,917
2,255
3,467
6,633
5,941
-2,335
11,006
-562
2,148
5,101
3,324
4,685
30,970
18,355
819
9,122
-648
4,184
1,186
1,946
2,278
3,467
6,746
6,019
-2,655
11,224
-696
2,175
5,080
3,434
4,824
31,668
18,372
819
9,224
-657
4,179
1,195
1,986
2,313
3,467
6,862
6,079
-2,707
11,422
-618
2,145
5,067
3,554
4,903
31,829
18,614
820
9,310
-591
4,156
1,202
2,014
2,347
3,467
6,952
6,192
-2,988
11,648
-667
2,161
5,048
3,686
4,992
31,979
18,857
827
9,400
-658
4,140
1,215
2,052
2,385
3,467
97,928
103,085
104,387
105,656
107,308
108,979
110,386
111,167
112,725
113,790
115,001
216.08
199.88
199.36
156.73
201.17
188.81
185.56
190.95
208.16
194.56
191.18
194.06
211.50
197.67
194.17
188.59
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
215.63
215.43
219.21
201.02
200.47
203.09
197.75
197.67
200.88
192.54
187.56
186.31
221.51
205.09
202.92
194.91
222.26
205.94
203.61
191.52
224.81
208.07
205.79
190.34
222.72
206.37
204.06
201.02
* Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
† Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
‡ Countries included: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro.
156 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Wheat Sup
pply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
225,710
220,901
220,105
3.00
2.97
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
676,353
165,140
841,493
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Area Harvested
Yield
Trade *
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
221,086
(Thousand Hectares)
221,591 222,165 222,349
222,680
223,291
223,800
224,393
3.02
3.05
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.07
3.09
3.11
3.14
3.16
3.18
3.20
656,870
196,006
852,876
663,998
191,092
855,090
673,565
188,617
862,182
(Thousand Metric Tons)
679,762 686,982 692,245
188,884 189,373 189,366
868,646 876,355 881,611
698,240
188,666
886,906
705,518
188,576
894,094
710,826
188,897
899,723
718,778
188,409
907,187
110,755
534,733
196,006
841,493
114,431
547,353
191,092
852,876
114,698
551,775
188,617
855,090
115,415
557,883
188,884
862,182
116,042
563,231
189,373
868,646
117,952
569,036
189,366
876,355
118,836
574,109
188,666
881,611
119,646
578,684
188,576
886,906
120,686
584,511
188,897
894,094
121,748
589,566
188,409
899,723
123,227
594,684
189,276
907,187
97,928
103,085
104,387
105,656
107,308
108,979
110,386
111,167
112,725
113,790
115,001
30.37
28.88
28.30
28.05
27.88
(Percent)
27.56
27.23
27.00
26.79
26.49
26.36
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
* Excludes intraregional trade.
U.S. Wheat Supp
ply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
20,181
18,435
18,885
18,916
(Thousand Hectares)
18,869
18,731
18,562
18,506
18,419
18,331
18,249
2.99
2.90
2.96
2.98
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.00
3.02
3.05
3.07
3.10
3.12
3.14
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
60,314
17,867
78,181
53,552
26,201
79,749
55,885
22,573
78,458
56,369
20,359
76,729
(Thousand Metric Tons)
56,661
56,638
56,565
19,837
19,632
19,621
76,497
76,271
76,186
56,865
19,446
76,311
57,064
19,385
76,449
57,201
19,403
76,604
57,297
19,350
76,647
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
4,831
27,671
26,201
58,699
6,170
28,341
22,573
57,084
5,902
28,574
20,359
54,835
5,775
28,844
19,837
54,455
5,575
29,084
19,632
54,292
5,684
29,354
19,621
54,659
5,586
29,601
19,446
54,632
5,475
29,860
19,385
54,720
5,524
30,136
19,403
55,062
5,404
30,404
19,350
55,159
5,481
30,723
19,479
55,683
19,483
22,668
23,622
22,273
22,205
21,611
21,554
21,591
21,387
21,445
20,964
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
World Wheat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 157
Algerian Wheat Supply
S
and Utilization
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
2,100
1,802
1,784
1,787
(Thousand Hectares)
1,785
1,779
1,770
1,766
1,766
1,761
1,757
1.67
1.47
1.48
1.50
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.52
1.53
1.54
1.55
1.55
1.54
1.56
3,500
2,054
5,554
2,641
2,079
4,720
2,642
2,502
5,144
2,679
2,515
5,194
(Thousand Metric Tons)
2,707
2,723
2,725
2,551
2,578
2,609
5,258
5,301
5,334
2,736
2,621
5,357
2,740
2,627
5,367
2,712
2,638
5,350
2,745
2,644
5,389
50
8,700
2,079
10,829
50
8,673
2,502
11,224
50
8,781
2,515
11,345
50
8,864
2,551
11,465
50
8,973
2,578
11,601
50
9,107
2,609
11,766
50
9,220
2,621
11,891
50
9,313
2,627
11,990
50
9,425
2,638
12,113
50
9,518
2,644
12,212
50
9,631
2,660
12,341
-5,275
-6,504
-6,201
-6,271
-6,344
-6,465
-6,556
-6,633
-6,746
-6,862
-6,952
14/15
Argentine Wheatt Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
2,850
4,637
4,745
4,829
(Thousand Hectares)
4,893
4,923
4,893
4,873
4,881
4,874
4,900
2.81
2.82
2.84
2.86
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.89
2.91
2.94
2.96
2.99
3.04
3.10
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
8,000
426
8,426
13,098
951
14,049
13,482
1,031
14,513
13,835
1,032
14,866
(Thousand Metric Tons)
14,126
14,333
14,368
1,034
1,036
1,042
15,160
15,369
15,410
14,419
1,043
15,462
14,614
1,046
15,660
14,819
1,049
15,868
15,208
1,048
16,256
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
80
4,900
951
5,931
81
5,314
1,031
6,426
82
5,386
1,032
6,500
83
5,381
1,034
6,498
83
5,390
1,036
6,509
83
5,431
1,042
6,556
84
5,455
1,043
6,582
85
5,465
1,046
6,596
86
5,498
1,049
6,633
88
5,514
1,048
6,650
90
5,574
1,053
6,717
2,495
7,623
8,013
8,368
8,651
8,813
8,828
8,866
9,026
9,218
9,539
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Australian Wheat
at Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13,800
13,611
13,634
13,581
(Thousand Hectares)
13,785
13,843
13,843
13,841
13,863
13,884
13,910
1.63
1.77
1.78
1.80
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.81
1.83
1.84
1.86
1.88
1.89
1.91
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
22,500
3,144
25,644
24,056
3,619
27,675
24,292
4,102
28,395
24,392
4,225
28,617
(Thousand Metric Tons)
25,016
25,315
25,536
4,305
4,349
4,402
29,321
29,665
29,938
25,712
4,438
30,150
26,028
4,475
30,503
26,304
4,518
30,822
26,633
4,549
31,183
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
4,000
3,100
3,619
10,719
4,127
3,165
4,102
11,394
4,234
3,187
4,225
11,645
4,290
3,205
4,305
11,801
4,373
3,217
4,349
11,939
4,475
3,238
4,402
12,115
4,575
3,255
4,438
12,267
4,663
3,268
4,475
12,407
4,743
3,290
4,518
12,551
4,807
3,309
4,549
12,665
4,863
3,339
4,597
12,799
14,925
16,281
16,750
16,816
17,382
17,549
17,671
17,743
17,952
18,157
18,384
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
158 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Brazilian Wheat Supply
S
and Utilization
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
2,428
2,434
2,438
2,439
(Thousand Hectares)
2,438
2,437
2,435
2,433
2,431
2,430
2,428
2.07
2.12
2.15
2.19
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.22
2.26
2.29
2.34
2.37
2.39
2.42
5,026
2,423
7,449
5,156
1,482
6,638
5,248
1,348
6,596
5,344
1,302
6,646
(Thousand Metric Tons)
5,421
5,498
5,580
1,282
1,269
1,266
6,703
6,767
6,846
5,691
1,258
6,949
5,758
1,252
7,011
5,810
1,251
7,062
5,875
1,248
7,123
644
10,023
1,482
12,149
667
10,351
1,348
12,366
680
10,387
1,302
12,369
692
10,473
1,282
12,448
706
10,562
1,269
12,536
721
10,701
1,266
12,688
733
10,798
1,258
12,790
747
10,891
1,252
12,891
760
11,018
1,251
13,030
776
11,116
1,248
13,141
795
11,265
1,255
13,315
-4,700
-5,728
-5,773
-5,802
-5,834
-5,922
-5,944
-5,941
-6,019
-6,079
-6,192
14/15
Canadian Wheatt Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
9,500
8,884
8,580
8,531
(Thousand Hectares)
8,596
8,619
8,553
8,543
8,568
8,567
8,576
2.79
2.78
2.79
2.82
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.83
2.85
2.87
2.89
2.90
2.92
2.94
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
26,500
6,556
33,056
24,664
7,656
32,320
23,961
8,290
32,252
24,024
8,404
32,428
(Thousand Metric Tons)
24,355
24,591
24,542
8,492
8,512
8,523
32,846
33,103
33,065
24,659
8,456
33,115
24,868
8,463
33,331
25,012
8,535
33,547
25,219
8,574
33,794
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,400
4,900
7,656
14,956
3,056
5,015
8,290
16,362
3,117
5,124
8,404
16,645
3,139
5,160
8,492
16,792
3,163
5,228
8,512
16,903
3,185
5,311
8,523
17,020
3,190
5,389
8,456
17,035
3,165
5,467
8,463
17,095
3,151
5,576
8,535
17,262
3,195
5,676
8,574
17,445
3,238
5,804
8,665
17,707
18,100
15,958
15,607
15,637
15,944
16,084
16,030
16,020
16,069
16,103
16,087
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
World Wheat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 159
Chinese Wheat Supply
S
and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
24,000
22,941
22,608
4.77
4.69
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
114,500
48,685
163,185
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
22,641
(Thousand Hectares)
22,635
22,551
22,466
22,434
22,494
22,438
22,450
4.70
4.72
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
4.73
4.75
4.76
4.79
4.80
4.81
4.83
107,537
60,785
168,322
106,302
60,701
167,003
106,871
60,018
166,889
(Thousand Metric Tons)
107,106 107,086 107,005
60,019
60,006
59,580
167,125 167,092 166,585
107,384
58,862
166,246
107,917
58,819
166,737
107,846
58,750
166,596
108,405
58,393
166,798
5,000
97,000
60,785
162,785
6,898
98,556
60,701
166,155
7,099
97,701
60,018
164,819
7,339
97,045
60,019
164,403
7,532
97,450
60,006
164,989
7,753
97,386
59,580
164,720
7,963
97,357
58,862
164,183
8,162
96,930
58,819
163,911
8,373
96,959
58,750
164,081
8,565
96,931
58,393
163,889
8,761
96,730
58,319
163,810
400
2,167
2,184
2,486
2,137
2,372
2,402
2,335
2,655
2,707
2,988
14/15
Egyptian Wheat Supply
S
and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1,220
1,206
1,205
1,209
(Thousand Hectares)
1,211
1,213
1,213
1,215
1,217
1,220
1,221
6.48
6.57
6.67
6.77
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
6.87
6.97
7.06
7.16
7.26
7.36
7.46
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
7,900
5,343
13,243
7,929
4,983
12,912
8,040
5,067
13,107
8,182
5,087
13,269
(Thousand Metric Tons)
8,316
8,450
8,570
5,096
5,103
5,117
13,412
13,553
13,687
8,700
5,121
13,821
8,838
5,123
13,962
8,973
5,129
14,102
9,106
5,132
14,238
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
50
17,000
4,983
22,033
66
17,493
5,067
22,626
70
17,782
5,087
22,940
74
18,220
5,096
23,390
78
18,570
5,103
23,751
80
18,939
5,117
24,137
81
19,286
5,121
24,488
81
19,623
5,123
24,828
82
19,974
5,129
25,185
83
20,309
5,132
25,524
84
20,658
5,143
25,886
-8,790
-9,714
-9,833
-10,121
-10,338
-10,584
-10,800
-11,006
-11,224
-11,422
-11,648
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
European Union Wheat Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
25,444
25,705
26,265
26,640
(Thousand Hectares)
26,675
26,864
26,934
26,884
26,964
26,929
26,953
5.44
5.43
5.48
5.53
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
5.57
5.60
5.65
5.69
5.73
5.77
5.82
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
138,339
18,337
156,676
139,699
17,176
156,875
143,987
16,238
160,225
147,200
16,547
163,747
(Thousand Metric Tons)
148,452 150,561 152,063
16,796
16,820
16,937
165,248 167,380 169,000
152,948
17,093
170,040
154,431
17,061
171,492
155,327
17,261
172,588
156,754
17,340
174,094
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
59,000
68,000
17,176
144,176
58,156
71,193
16,238
145,587
58,471
73,422
16,547
148,440
58,831
75,643
16,796
151,270
59,283
76,648
16,820
152,751
60,397
77,428
16,937
154,762
60,743
78,359
17,093
156,195
61,071
79,307
17,061
157,439
61,431
79,993
17,261
158,685
61,980
80,393
17,340
159,714
62,808
80,977
17,755
161,540
12,500
11,288
11,785
12,477
12,497
12,618
12,805
12,602
12,807
12,874
12,554
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
13/14
160 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Indian Wheat Sup
pply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
27,800
27,502
27,800
2.90
2.77
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
80,580
13,510
94,090
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
27,994
(Thousand Hectares)
28,132
28,144
28,346
28,441
28,541
28,713
28,861
2.85
2.88
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.91
2.94
2.96
2.98
3.03
3.06
3.10
76,042
18,020
94,062
79,092
14,115
93,208
80,710
13,363
94,073
(Thousand Metric Tons)
81,882
82,778
83,796
13,385
13,833
13,668
95,268
96,612
97,464
84,889
13,507
98,396
86,409
13,460
99,869
87,911
13,336
101,248
89,526
13,187
102,713
100
76,020
18,020
94,140
173
79,388
14,115
93,677
175
79,323
13,363
92,860
179
80,319
13,385
93,884
183
81,041
13,833
95,057
187
82,325
13,668
96,180
190
83,181
13,507
96,877
194
84,180
13,460
97,834
201
85,636
13,336
99,173
206
87,236
13,187
100,629
214
88,659
13,173
102,046
-50
385
347
189
210
431
586
562
696
618
667
14/15
Iranian Wheat Su
upply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
6,000
6,591
6,555
6,548
(Thousand Hectares)
6,560
6,587
6,610
6,637
6,643
6,664
6,688
2.00
2.01
2.01
2.03
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.05
2.08
2.09
2.12
2.14
2.15
2.18
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
12,000
3,907
15,907
13,236
4,157
17,393
13,174
4,489
17,662
13,293
4,636
17,929
(Thousand Metric Tons)
13,467
13,693
13,831
4,696
4,701
4,706
18,164
18,394
18,537
14,054
4,695
18,749
14,214
4,686
18,901
14,361
4,687
19,048
14,548
4,684
19,232
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
300
15,900
4,157
20,357
323
14,494
4,489
19,306
331
14,757
4,636
19,724
334
15,071
4,696
20,101
333
15,344
4,701
20,377
333
15,591
4,706
20,630
332
15,698
4,695
20,725
332
15,879
4,686
20,896
332
16,057
4,687
21,075
332
16,178
4,684
21,193
333
16,362
4,698
21,393
-4,450
-1,913
-2,062
-2,172
-2,214
-2,236
-2,188
-2,148
-2,175
-2,145
-2,161
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Thousand Hectares)
191
191
191
191
191
191
191
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Japanese Wheatt Supply and Utilization
09/10
Area Harvested
209
10/11
205
11/12
194
12/13
190
4.11
4.07
4.07
4.07
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
4.07
4.07
4.07
4.07
4.07
4.07
4.07
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
843
1,381
2,224
789
1,249
2,038
772
1,534
2,307
778
1,697
2,475
(Thousand Metric Tons)
777
777
776
1,746
1,758
1,764
2,523
2,535
2,540
777
1,762
2,539
778
1,764
2,542
778
1,770
2,548
778
1,794
2,571
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
150
5,700
1,249
7,099
228
5,640
1,534
7,402
321
5,630
1,697
7,648
344
5,613
1,746
7,703
353
5,596
1,758
7,708
362
5,572
1,764
7,698
363
5,544
1,762
7,670
363
5,513
1,764
7,641
363
5,489
1,770
7,623
363
5,458
1,794
7,615
364
5,425
1,830
7,620
-4,875
-5,364
-5,342
-5,228
-5,184
-5,162
-5,130
-5,101
-5,080
-5,067
-5,048
Yield
Net Trade
World Wheat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 161
Mexican Wheat Supply
S
and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
870
796
703
Yield
4.94
5.00
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
4,300
317
4,617
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
724
(Thousand Hectares)
714
736
732
732
734
730
730
5.06
5.10
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
5.14
5.17
5.21
5.25
5.29
5.33
5.38
3,985
367
4,352
3,562
422
3,984
3,694
431
4,125
(Thousand Metric Tons)
3,666
3,808
3,819
434
433
437
4,100
4,241
4,256
3,845
438
4,283
3,883
443
4,325
3,889
451
4,340
3,924
457
4,381
250
5,900
367
6,517
185
6,350
422
6,957
176
6,477
431
7,084
175
6,529
434
7,138
176
6,615
433
7,224
178
6,749
437
7,363
179
6,872
438
7,489
182
6,982
443
7,607
185
7,124
451
7,759
188
7,249
457
7,894
191
7,407
468
8,067
-1,900
-2,605
-3,100
-3,013
-3,125
-3,122
-3,233
-3,324
-3,434
-3,554
-3,686
14/15
Moroccan Wheatt Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
2,800
2,598
2,482
2,435
(Thousand Hectares)
2,437
2,427
2,414
2,402
2,394
2,379
2,366
2.28
1.46
1.48
1.49
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.49
1.49
1.49
1.50
1.49
1.51
1.52
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
6,370
784
7,154
3,790
1,204
4,994
3,663
1,371
5,034
3,627
1,426
5,052
(Thousand Metric Tons)
3,640
3,625
3,596
1,448
1,463
1,479
5,089
5,088
5,075
3,608
1,492
5,100
3,575
1,504
5,079
3,589
1,524
5,112
3,601
1,542
5,143
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
150
7,500
1,204
8,854
174
7,531
1,371
9,076
184
7,615
1,426
9,224
188
7,709
1,448
9,346
190
7,805
1,463
9,458
191
7,904
1,479
9,575
193
8,032
1,492
9,716
194
8,087
1,504
9,785
195
8,184
1,524
9,903
197
8,277
1,542
10,015
199
8,372
1,564
10,135
-1,700
-4,082
-4,190
-4,293
-4,369
-4,487
-4,641
-4,685
-4,824
-4,903
-4,992
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Other African/Mid
ddle Eastern Wheat Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
14,763
15,378
15,461
15,503
(Thousand Hectares)
15,524
15,702
15,836
15,930
15,986
16,244
16,347
2.10
2.13
2.16
2.20
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.22
2.25
2.28
2.32
2.36
2.38
2.41
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
30,987
10,340
41,327
32,765
11,640
44,405
33,375
12,012
45,386
34,119
12,023
46,142
(Thousand Metric Tons)
34,521
35,363
36,105
12,005
11,964
12,041
46,526
47,326
48,146
36,921
12,105
49,026
37,787
11,970
49,757
38,586
12,016
50,602
39,423
11,767
51,189
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,580
55,240
11,640
69,460
2,423
57,687
12,012
72,121
2,421
59,066
12,023
73,510
2,425
60,365
12,005
74,795
2,428
61,663
11,964
76,054
2,436
62,899
12,041
77,376
2,439
64,294
12,105
78,839
2,441
65,584
11,970
79,996
2,446
66,963
12,016
81,426
2,448
68,215
11,767
82,430
2,452
69,014
11,702
83,168
-28,133
-27,716
-28,123
-28,653
-29,529
-30,049
-30,692
-30,970
-31,668
-31,829
-31,979
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
162 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Other Asian Whe
eat Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
3,933
3,708
3,696
3,717
(Thousand Hectares)
3,716
3,718
3,751
3,798
3,900
3,933
3,978
1.79
1.65
1.65
1.66
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.66
1.66
1.66
1.67
1.67
1.65
1.66
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
7,050
3,376
10,426
6,115
3,416
9,531
6,116
3,297
9,413
6,186
3,277
9,463
(Thousand Metric Tons)
6,166
6,176
6,242
3,284
3,291
3,314
9,450
9,466
9,556
6,328
3,326
9,654
6,496
3,343
9,839
6,504
3,266
9,770
6,621
3,272
9,893
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,405
23,630
3,416
28,451
1,186
22,727
3,297
27,209
1,151
22,726
3,277
27,154
1,153
22,889
3,284
27,325
1,151
23,008
3,291
27,449
1,158
23,270
3,314
27,742
1,159
23,408
3,326
27,893
1,157
23,509
3,343
28,009
1,161
23,784
3,266
28,211
1,161
23,951
3,272
28,384
1,166
24,284
3,301
28,750
-18,025
-17,678
-17,741
-17,862
-18,000
-18,276
-18,337
-18,355
-18,372
-18,614
-18,857
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
14/15
Other CIS Wheatt Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
19,433
17,659
17,380
17,455
(Thousand Hectares)
17,537
17,631
17,675
17,749
17,812
17,885
17,948
1.60
1.62
1.64
1.65
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.66
1.68
1.69
1.71
1.72
1.72
1.74
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
31,070
6,971
38,041
28,619
8,716
37,335
28,450
8,112
36,561
28,862
8,021
36,883
(Thousand Metric Tons)
29,139
29,550
29,889
8,023
8,041
8,070
37,162
37,592
37,959
30,271
8,089
38,360
30,589
8,108
38,696
30,783
8,127
38,910
31,235
8,142
39,376
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
5,725
20,275
8,716
34,716
5,783
20,511
8,112
34,406
5,832
20,605
8,021
34,458
5,903
20,685
8,023
34,611
5,989
20,770
8,041
34,801
6,085
20,883
8,070
35,038
6,175
20,973
8,089
35,236
6,267
21,060
8,108
35,435
6,363
21,148
8,127
35,639
6,461
21,226
8,142
35,829
6,568
21,309
8,163
36,040
3,325
2,929
2,104
2,272
2,361
2,554
2,723
2,926
3,057
3,082
3,337
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Countries included: Armenia, Aze
zerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
Other Eastern Eu
uropean Wheat Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
495
488
473
Yield
3.38
3.40
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,675
347
2,022
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
472
(Thousand Hectares)
475
477
475
475
476
475
476
3.42
3.44
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.45
3.47
3.48
3.50
3.51
3.52
3.54
1,659
352
2,011
1,619
375
1,994
1,625
377
2,002
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,641
1,653
1,654
379
381
386
2,020
2,034
2,041
1,661
389
2,050
1,672
392
2,064
1,672
397
2,069
1,683
400
2,083
205
2,165
352
2,722
222
2,203
375
2,800
228
2,212
377
2,817
233
2,203
379
2,816
238
2,206
381
2,824
245
2,217
386
2,848
249
2,224
389
2,862
250
2,227
392
2,869
250
2,235
397
2,883
249
2,239
400
2,889
250
2,254
407
2,911
-700
-789
-823
-814
-804
-815
-821
-819
-819
-820
-827
Countries included: Albania, Bos
snia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro.
World Wheat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 163
Other Latin Amerrican Wheat Supply and Utilization
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1,642
1,651
1,630
1,620
(Thousand Hectares)
1,628
1,628
1,622
1,618
1,618
1,614
1,612
2.49
2.51
2.53
2.55
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.56
2.57
2.59
2.60
2.62
2.62
2.65
4,094
1,809
5,903
4,146
1,976
6,122
4,119
2,085
6,205
4,130
2,116
6,245
(Thousand Metric Tons)
4,170
4,192
4,199
2,140
2,159
2,187
6,310
6,351
6,385
4,214
2,205
6,419
4,235
2,223
6,458
4,235
2,243
6,478
4,266
2,260
6,526
400
11,790
1,976
14,166
412
12,221
2,085
14,718
417
12,316
2,116
14,849
417
12,430
2,140
14,987
418
12,540
2,159
15,117
422
12,691
2,187
15,299
425
12,800
2,205
15,429
427
12,891
2,223
15,540
429
13,009
2,243
15,682
431
13,097
2,260
15,788
435
13,207
2,284
15,926
-8,263
-8,596
-8,644
-8,741
-8,807
-8,949
-9,044
-9,122
-9,224
-9,310
-9,400
14/15
Pakistani Wheat Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
9,000
9,075
8,954
9,000
(Thousand Hectares)
9,052
9,098
9,099
9,121
9,153
9,171
9,209
2.67
2.71
2.74
2.78
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.81
2.84
2.87
2.91
2.94
2.96
3.00
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
24,000
1,869
25,869
24,555
2,569
27,124
24,557
2,760
27,317
25,037
2,751
27,788
(Thousand Metric Tons)
25,420
25,843
26,142
2,740
2,737
2,771
28,160
28,581
28,914
26,508
2,786
29,294
26,888
2,806
29,695
27,140
2,834
29,973
27,624
2,852
30,476
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
400
22,900
2,569
25,869
412
23,654
2,760
26,826
410
23,875
2,751
27,036
409
24,129
2,740
27,278
408
24,396
2,737
27,541
410
24,790
2,771
27,972
411
25,102
2,786
28,299
411
25,429
2,806
28,646
412
25,792
2,834
29,038
412
26,118
2,852
29,382
413
26,516
2,889
29,818
0
298
280
510
619
609
615
648
657
591
658
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Russian Wheat Supply
S
and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
28,750
27,085
26,160
26,167
(Thousand Hectares)
26,007
26,090
26,031
26,145
26,229
26,301
26,403
2.15
2.12
2.14
2.15
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.17
2.19
2.22
2.23
2.23
2.24
2.26
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
61,700
8,429
70,129
57,372
11,129
68,501
56,076
11,877
67,954
56,210
12,047
68,257
(Thousand Metric Tons)
56,414
57,257
57,660
12,087
12,104
12,131
68,501
69,360
69,792
58,186
12,147
70,333
58,572
12,165
70,737
59,022
12,186
71,208
59,639
12,201
71,839
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
18,000
23,200
11,129
52,329
18,514
23,027
11,877
53,418
18,119
22,808
12,047
52,975
18,068
22,933
12,087
53,089
17,932
22,829
12,104
52,865
18,023
22,769
12,131
52,923
18,162
22,679
12,147
52,987
18,325
22,562
12,165
53,052
18,497
22,472
12,186
53,154
18,667
22,354
12,201
53,222
18,753
22,295
12,229
53,276
17,800
15,083
14,979
15,168
15,636
16,438
16,805
17,281
17,582
17,986
18,563
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
164 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
South Korean Wheat
Wh
Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
5
5
5
5
3.60
3.63
3.66
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
18
1,087
1,105
18
1,005
1,023
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,500
2,200
1,005
4,705
-3,600
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
5
5
5
5
5
3.69
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.71
3.74
3.76
3.78
3.80
3.81
3.84
18
1,035
1,053
18
1,056
1,074
(Thousand Metric Tons)
19
19
19
1,068
1,074
1,079
1,087
1,092
1,098
19
1,081
1,100
19
1,083
1,102
19
1,085
1,104
19
1,087
1,107
1,633
2,276
1,035
4,943
1,703
2,301
1,056
5,060
1,766
2,320
1,068
5,154
1,810
2,329
1,074
5,213
1,843
2,342
1,079
5,265
1,855
2,347
1,081
5,283
1,853
2,349
1,083
5,284
1,841
2,354
1,085
5,281
1,816
2,357
1,087
5,260
1,787
2,367
1,093
5,247
-3,920
-4,007
-4,079
-4,126
-4,172
-4,184
-4,184
-4,179
-4,156
-4,140
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Thousand Metric Tons)
0
0
0
399
406
415
399
406
415
0
421
421
0
427
427
0
433
433
0
438
438
(Thousand Hectares)
5
5
Taiwanese Whea
at Supply and Utilization
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
0
366
366
0
356
356
0
381
381
0
389
389
10
1,075
356
1,441
14
1,098
381
1,492
15
1,109
389
1,513
16
1,121
399
1,536
18
1,130
406
1,553
19
1,141
415
1,575
20
1,150
421
1,591
22
1,158
427
1,607
23
1,166
433
1,623
24
1,173
438
1,635
25
1,182
445
1,653
-1,075
-1,136
-1,132
-1,147
-1,155
-1,170
-1,176
-1,186
-1,195
-1,202
-1,215
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Tunisian Wheat S
Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
835
807
768
764
(Thousand Hectares)
754
756
746
744
739
734
730
Yield
1.80
1.83
1.86
1.89
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.92
1.94
1.96
1.98
2.00
2.02
2.05
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,500
1,419
2,919
1,479
1,219
2,698
1,426
1,298
2,724
1,441
1,313
2,754
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,451
1,468
1,466
1,337
1,347
1,367
2,788
2,815
2,833
1,474
1,378
2,852
1,482
1,390
2,871
1,482
1,404
2,886
1,498
1,413
2,911
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
0
3,100
1,219
4,319
0
3,152
1,298
4,450
0
3,188
1,313
4,501
0
3,241
1,337
4,578
0
3,278
1,347
4,624
0
3,334
1,367
4,701
0
3,372
1,378
4,750
0
3,408
1,390
4,798
0
3,453
1,404
4,858
0
3,487
1,413
4,900
0
3,532
1,431
4,963
-1,400
-1,752
-1,777
-1,824
-1,836
-1,887
-1,917
-1,946
-1,986
-2,014
-2,052
Net Trade
World Wheat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 165
Ukrainian Wheatt Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
6,850
6,962
6,976
7,185
(Thousand Hectares)
7,237
7,280
7,415
7,470
7,535
7,601
7,677
2.99
3.03
3.06
3.08
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.09
3.12
3.13
3.15
3.16
3.16
3.16
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
20,500
3,110
23,610
21,100
2,610
23,710
21,328
2,959
24,287
22,111
3,090
25,202
(Thousand Metric Tons)
22,387
22,729
23,247
3,180
3,254
3,322
25,567
25,983
26,569
23,519
3,375
26,895
23,800
3,420
27,220
23,998
3,459
27,457
24,289
3,487
27,777
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,800
9,300
2,610
14,710
2,810
9,537
2,959
15,307
2,847
9,635
3,090
15,572
2,874
9,688
3,180
15,743
2,920
9,727
3,254
15,901
2,978
9,782
3,322
16,082
3,030
9,797
3,375
16,202
3,084
9,795
3,420
16,300
3,140
9,786
3,459
16,385
3,201
9,760
3,487
16,448
3,266
9,736
3,515
16,517
8,900
8,404
8,715
9,459
9,666
9,901
10,367
10,595
10,835
11,009
11,260
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
14/15
Rest-of-World Wheat
Wh
Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
806
747
730
731
(Thousand Hectares)
734
734
731
729
729
727
726
Yield
3.83
3.84
3.85
3.87
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.88
3.89
3.90
3.91
3.92
3.92
3.94
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
3,087
1,283
4,370
2,869
1,089
3,958
2,810
1,119
3,929
2,828
1,117
3,944
(Thousand Metric Tons)
2,845
2,858
2,850
1,120
1,122
1,130
3,964
3,980
3,980
2,853
1,133
3,986
2,860
1,138
3,998
2,852
1,145
3,997
2,861
1,149
4,010
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
725
4,081
1,089
5,895
668
4,291
1,119
6,078
664
4,321
1,117
6,101
657
4,334
1,120
6,111
654
4,365
1,122
6,140
653
4,414
1,130
6,197
651
4,452
1,133
6,236
647
4,479
1,138
6,264
646
4,521
1,145
6,312
643
4,552
1,149
6,344
642
4,594
1,159
6,395
-1,525
-2,121
-2,171
-2,167
-2,176
-2,217
-2,255
-2,278
-2,313
-2,347
-2,385
Net Trade
13/14
166 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Per Capita Wheat Consumption of Selected Countries
Algeria
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
Egypt
European Union
India
Iran
Japan
Mexico
Morocco
Other Africa/Middle East
Other Asia
Other CIS *
Other Eastern Europe †
Other Latin America
Pakistan
Russia
South Korea
Taiwan
Tunisia
Ukraine
United States
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
251
118
144
50
145
73
210
138
65
236
45
52
236
51
27
222
95
50
129
167
45
47
292
205
89
247
127
145
51
147
74
212
144
66
213
45
56
235
52
25
223
96
51
131
166
47
48
294
212
90
247
127
144
50
149
73
211
149
66
215
45
56
235
52
25
223
97
51
130
165
47
48
294
215
90
247
126
143
50
149
72
212
153
66
217
45
56
235
52
25
222
97
51
130
167
47
48
297
218
90
247
125
142
50
150
72
212
155
65
219
45
56
236
52
25
221
97
50
129
167
47
49
297
220
90
14/15
(Kilograms)
248
125
142
50
151
71
213
157
66
220
45
57
236
52
25
221
97
50
129
168
48
49
300
223
90
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
248
124
141
50
152
71
213
159
65
220
45
57
238
52
25
221
98
50
129
168
48
49
300
225
90
248
123
140
50
153
71
213
161
65
220
45
57
237
52
24
220
98
50
129
168
48
50
301
226
90
248
123
140
50
155
70
213
162
66
220
45
58
238
52
25
220
98
50
129
168
48
50
303
227
90
248
122
139
50
157
70
213
163
66
220
45
59
238
52
24
219
99
50
129
168
48
50
303
228
90
249
123
139
51
159
70
213
164
67
220
45
59
239
52
24
219
100
50
129
169
48
51
305
229
90
* Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
† Countries included: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro.
WORLD RICE
168 / World Rice: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Rice
Global rice prices weaken in 2009/10 as more exportable supplies became available, even as major rice exporting
countries like India, Egypt, Pakistan, China, and Thailand maintain export restrictions and stock controls to
dampen domestic price increases. The world reference price, which equilibrates net trade in the model, is used
in this baseline. This price no longer tracks the Thai 100% B price. Current Thai policies on the domestic price,
government storage, and government-to-government exports have limited the usefulness of the Thai price as a
reference price because of competitive pressure from Vietnamese rice. Vietnam has sold rice at a discount by as
much as $150 per mt below the Thai price, making it very competitive in the global market.
World rice harvested area in 2009/10 declined by 2.5% as unfavorable weather caused a 5.2 mha drop in India’s
area that negated gains in China, Myanmar, Thailand, and Nigeria. While world rice production has exceeded
consumption since 2005/06, the situation reversed in 2009/10 when India’s output declined by 14.7 mmt, causing
global rice production to decrease by 2.7%, to 434.7 mmt, as the average yield declined marginally.
Total world rice consumption in 2009/10 increases by 0.7%, to 436.5 mmt, as world population grows by 1.1%
and average per capita use declines by 0.4%. Substantial consumption gains in China, Bangladesh, and Indonesia
are offset by declines in India and Pakistan. Total world rice trade in 2009/10 is 29.7 mmt, up 8.2%, as total export
shipments from Thailand, Pakistan, and China increase substantially. Net world rice trade in 2009/10 is 27.6 mmt,
up 11.7% from the previous year.
With global rice yields projected to increase by 2.2% and area by 0.8%, total rice output recovers in 2010/11,
expanding by 3.0%, to 447.7 mmt. With world population growth of 1.1% and an increase of 0.7% in per capita
use, total global rice consumption increases by 1.8%, to 444.3 mmt. Total world rice trade expands to 32.3 mmt
during the same period, up 8.9% from the previous year, as more export supplies come from India and Thailand.
Consequently, rice export prices are projected to weaken further in 2010/11 and 2011/12 before increasing
gradually, driven by strong consumption and trade, reaching $429 per mt by 2019/20.
Over the next decade, global rice area increases marginally, to 155.7 mha, and yields grow by 0.6%, causing total
production to grow by 0.7%. Area expansions in India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Thailand offset contractions
in China, Japan, and South Korea. Total consumption continues to increase steadily by 0.8% annually, with
the expansion driven solely by population growth, as average per capita use declines marginally, a result of
urbanization and diet diversification toward more protein-based foods in some Asian countries with strong
economies such as China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.
India’s role in the global rice economy is projected to remain prominent, as the country accounts for 28%, 38%,
and 29% of the gains in area, production, and consumption over the baseline, respectively. About 45% of the
growth in production comes from Bangladesh, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Brazil, Myanmar, Cambodia,
and Vietnam, while 52% of consumption growth is accounted for by Bangladesh, the EU, Indonesia, the
Philippines, Nigeria, and Myanmar.
India, Thailand, Pakistan, and Vietnam account for 81.2% of the growth in net rice exports over the next
decade. These countries experience declines in rice per capita consumption, which allows yield-based growth
in production to outpace domestic consumption. Over the same period, the Philippines remains the top rice
destination, with imports reaching nearly 4.0 mmt by 2019/20. Rice imports of Africa and the Middle East
continue to increase, accounting for 50.4% of the total volume growth in global net rice imports over the decade,
driven by strong growth in both population and per capita rice consumption.
World Rice: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 169
Rice Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
591
-176
773
1,130
432
1,982
1,007
3,791
9,798
2,494
750
5,004
554
-173
764
1,048
553
4,436
1,051
3,062
10,733
2,462
762
4,575
660
-129
711
1,139
612
5,758
1,174
3,254
11,097
2,245
786
4,580
Total Net Exports *
27,576
29,826
Net Importers
Bangladesh
Brazil
Cameroon
Canada
China - Hong Kong
Cote d'Ivoire
European Union-27
Ghana
Guinea
Indonesia
Iran
Iraq
Japan
Kenya
Malaysia
Mali
Mexico
Mozambique
Nigeria
Philippines
Saudi Arabia
Senegal
Sierra Leone
South Africa
South Korea
Taiwan
Tanzania
Turkey
Rest of World
704
340
301
341
350
796
1,203
351
148
303
1,701
1,100
500
247
829
102
596
350
1,600
2,599
1,320
701
130
726
300
70
79
191
9,599
Total Net Imports
Net Exporters
Argentina
Australia
Cambodia
China
Egypt
India
Myanmar (Burma)
Pakistan
Thailand
United States
Uruguay
Vietnam
Prices
World Reference Price †
U.S. FOB Gulf Ports
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
650
-95
725
1,244
629
5,806
1,248
3,404
11,136
2,171
816
4,645
(Thousand Metric Tons)
686
706
724
-62
-59
-66
726
696
723
1,281
1,324
1,345
628
658
672
6,170
6,262
6,522
1,270
1,303
1,328
3,457
3,646
3,551
11,273
11,358
11,535
2,137
2,118
2,100
837
858
902
4,553
4,723
4,795
757
-63
717
1,331
689
6,751
1,351
3,550
11,874
2,073
926
5,133
786
-60
733
1,352
709
6,838
1,408
3,666
12,094
2,071
940
4,974
810
-57
773
1,373
710
6,921
1,448
3,670
12,366
2,090
972
5,079
798
-53
797
1,437
725
7,072
1,462
3,766
12,497
2,152
994
5,057
31,888
32,378
32,957
33,594
34,133
35,088
35,510
36,155
36,705
954
691
334
357
381
966
1,360
370
222
970
1,690
1,247
482
385
983
204
658
366
1,943
2,983
1,411
573
162
978
327
108
158
212
8,352
1,426
879
370
367
385
1,034
1,362
345
208
1,241
1,651
1,253
482
355
1,029
192
664
383
2,067
2,924
1,415
630
167
975
348
108
147
238
9,244
1,553
767
390
387
388
1,155
1,376
330
196
1,217
1,655
1,260
482
369
1,044
174
696
400
2,152
2,891
1,450
672
169
996
368
108
138
254
9,341
1,664
659
403
409
392
1,205
1,390
307
185
1,254
1,744
1,277
482
416
1,090
165
728
416
2,242
3,293
1,488
711
169
1,018
388
108
164
273
8,918
1,783
531
410
425
396
1,240
1,374
287
198
1,402
1,723
1,297
482
415
1,095
173
751
430
2,303
3,433
1,523
730
163
1,038
409
108
173
284
9,017
1,813
396
422
444
400
1,283
1,391
278
185
1,401
1,855
1,325
482
439
1,125
170
779
438
2,387
3,397
1,559
796
154
1,065
409
108
192
299
9,143
1,849
269
452
460
405
1,333
1,414
275
204
1,424
1,963
1,356
482
475
1,165
177
810
458
2,501
3,570
1,595
841
148
1,096
409
108
222
314
9,315
1,863
-29
464
472
408
1,360
1,439
284
215
1,403
1,988
1,389
482
483
1,199
180
840
465
2,639
3,768
1,627
889
136
1,121
409
108
217
325
9,369
1,858
-223
478
485
411
1,398
1,482
289
227
1,422
2,086
1,428
482
511
1,247
193
872
489
2,757
3,859
1,659
937
128
1,167
409
108
232
334
9,434
1,854
-533
486
493
413
1,438
1,539
299
235
1,624
2,215
1,484
482
499
1,352
188
902
494
2,800
3,977
1,688
986
111
1,192
409
108
223
346
9,399
27,576
29,826
31,888
32,378
32,957
33,594
34,133
35,088
35,510
36,155
36,705
538
532
405
425
401
422
404
424
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
403
405
406
424
426
427
402
423
411
432
415
437
429
451
* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
† Historically equal to the Thai 100% B. However, for the projection period, this price equilibrates net trade and no longer corresponds to Thai 100% B.
Current Thai policies on domestic price, government storage, and government-to-government exports have limited its usefulness as a reference price.
170 / World Rice: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
152,530
153,747
153,739
2.85
2.91
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
434,730
92,410
527,140
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Area Harvested
Yield
Trade
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
154,261
(Thousand Hectares)
154,444 154,761 155,209
155,293
155,309
155,377
155,676
2.93
2.93
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.95
2.96
2.97
3.00
3.02
3.05
3.06
447,696
90,660
538,356
450,514
94,004
544,518
452,302
96,393
548,695
(Thousand Metric Tons)
455,223 457,768 461,701
96,307
94,477
93,683
551,530 552,246 555,384
466,272
93,018
559,289
469,625
93,073
562,698
474,055
92,724
566,779
476,681
92,681
569,362
436,470
90,660
527,130
444,352
94,004
538,356
448,126
96,393
544,518
452,387
96,307
548,695
457,053
94,477
551,530
458,563
93,683
552,246
462,366
93,018
555,384
466,216
93,073
559,289
469,974
92,724
562,698
474,098
92,681
566,779
477,622
91,740
569,362
29,660
32,287
34,365
36,333
36,898
37,580
38,301
38,957
40,041
40,533
41,278
20.77
21.16
21.51
21.29
20.67
(Percent)
20.43
20.12
19.96
19.73
19.55
19.21
14/15
U.S. Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1,256
1,189
1,127
1,121
(Thousand Hectares)
1,124
1,123
1,120
1,117
1,116
1,120
1,131
5.60
5.67
5.72
5.78
(Metric Tons per Hectares)
5.83
5.88
5.93
5.99
6.03
6.07
6.12
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
7,030
974
8,004
6,743
1,369
8,111
6,449
1,367
7,816
6,473
1,255
7,728
(Thousand Metric Tons)
6,553
6,606
6,648
1,192
1,189
1,204
7,745
7,795
7,851
6,686
1,223
7,908
6,731
1,248
7,979
6,805
1,269
8,074
6,919
1,290
8,210
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
4,141
1,369
5,510
4,262
1,367
5,629
4,315
1,255
5,570
4,365
1,192
5,557
4,419
1,189
5,608
4,473
1,204
5,677
4,528
1,223
5,751
4,586
1,248
5,835
4,640
1,269
5,908
4,694
1,290
5,985
4,746
1,311
6,057
2,494
2,462
2,245
2,171
2,137
2,118
2,100
2,073
2,071
2,090
2,152
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
World Rice: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 171
Argentine Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
210
227
228
Yield
4.52
4.42
949
70
1,019
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
230
(Thousand Hectares)
231
233
234
236
238
240
242
4.48
4.55
(Metric Tons per Hectares)
4.63
4.71
4.78
4.85
4.93
5.00
5.08
1,003
103
1,106
1,022
204
1,226
1,046
212
1,258
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,072
1,095
1,120
249
270
289
1,321
1,365
1,409
1,147
309
1,456
1,173
318
1,491
1,203
319
1,521
1,232
319
1,551
325
103
428
349
204
553
353
212
566
359
249
608
365
270
635
370
289
660
376
309
685
382
318
700
387
319
705
392
319
711
396
357
753
591
554
660
650
686
706
724
757
786
810
798
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
47
49
51
52
53
Australian Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
20
29
34
38
Yield
6.25
6.29
6.34
6.34
(Metric Tons per Hectares)
6.35
6.40
6.45
6.51
6.56
6.58
6.58
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
125
24
149
182
11
192
214
50
264
242
62
304
(Thousand Metric Tons)
283
290
303
59
61
61
343
350
365
322
77
399
334
100
434
341
128
470
348
151
499
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
314
11
325
315
50
365
331
62
392
340
59
399
344
61
405
348
61
410
354
77
431
362
100
462
365
128
494
375
151
526
385
167
552
-176
-173
-129
-95
-62
-59
-66
-63
-60
-57
-53
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Area Harvested
Net Trade
(Thousand Hectares)
45
45
Bangladeshi Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
11,600
11,624
11,520
11,505
(Thousand Hectares)
11,542
11,620
11,679
11,778
11,821
11,872
11,914
2.59
2.67
2.66
2.69
(Metric Tons per Hectares)
2.72
2.74
2.76
2.79
2.82
2.85
2.89
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
30,000
1,148
31,148
30,979
448
31,427
30,649
458
31,108
30,922
461
31,384
(Thousand Metric Tons)
31,350
31,841
32,282
469
480
492
31,819
32,321
32,775
32,836
472
33,308
33,333
562
33,895
33,878
672
34,550
34,440
802
35,242
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
31,404
448
31,852
31,923
458
32,382
32,072
461
32,534
32,467
469
32,936
33,003
480
33,483
33,612
492
34,104
34,115
472
34,587
34,596
562
35,158
35,087
672
35,758
35,605
802
36,407
36,241
855
37,096
-704
-954
-1,426
-1,553
-1,664
-1,783
-1,813
-1,849
-1,863
-1,858
-1,854
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
172 / World Rice: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Brazilian Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
2,850
2,799
2,693
2,690
(Thousand Hectares)
2,702
2,709
2,720
2,732
2,756
2,795
2,845
2.74
3.08
3.13
3.20
(Metric Tons per Hectares)
3.25
3.32
3.38
3.45
3.51
3.58
3.64
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
7,820
1,013
8,833
8,614
758
9,371
8,433
819
9,252
8,600
813
9,413
(Thousand Metric Tons)
8,790
8,981
9,196
808
807
804
9,598
9,787
10,000
9,420
803
10,223
9,682
804
10,486
10,001
799
10,800
10,367
798
11,166
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
8,636
758
9,394
9,243
819
10,062
9,319
813
10,131
9,372
808
10,180
9,450
807
10,257
9,514
804
10,318
9,593
803
10,396
9,688
804
10,492
9,657
799
10,457
9,779
798
10,577
9,840
793
10,632
-340
-691
-879
-767
-659
-531
-396
-269
29
223
533
14/15
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
14/15
Cambodian Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
2,650
2,658
2,617
2,629
(Thousand Hectares)
2,634
2,622
2,641
2,643
2,654
2,678
2,691
1.75
1.77
1.81
1.85
(Metric Tons per Hectares)
1.88
1.92
1.96
2.00
2.04
2.07
2.11
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
4,630
0
4,630
4,694
0
4,694
4,726
1
4,727
4,852
2
4,854
(Thousand Metric Tons)
4,964
5,043
5,180
5
7
9
4,968
5,050
5,189
5,285
11
5,296
5,407
14
5,421
5,554
16
5,569
5,681
18
5,699
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
3,857
0
3,857
3,929
1
3,931
4,013
2
4,016
4,124
5
4,129
4,236
7
4,243
4,345
9
4,354
4,455
11
4,466
4,565
14
4,579
4,672
16
4,688
4,779
18
4,797
4,882
20
4,902
773
764
711
725
726
696
723
717
733
773
797
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
44
45
45
45
45
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Cameroonian Rice Supply and Utilization
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
40
41
41
41
0.75
0.86
0.87
0.89
(Metric Tons per Hectares)
0.90
0.91
0.92
0.93
0.95
0.96
0.97
30
0
30
35
0
35
36
1
37
36
2
38
(Thousand Metric Tons)
37
39
41
2
2
3
39
41
43
42
3
45
42
4
46
43
4
48
44
5
49
331
0
331
368
1
369
405
2
407
426
2
429
440
2
442
449
3
451
462
3
465
493
4
497
505
4
510
520
5
525
530
5
535
-301
-334
-370
-390
-403
-410
-422
-452
-464
-478
-486
(Thousand Hectares)
42
43
World Rice: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 173
Canadian Rice Supply and Utilization
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
341
0
341
357
0
357
367
0
367
387
0
387
409
0
409
-341
-357
-367
-387
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
425
0
425
444
0
444
460
0
460
472
0
472
485
0
485
493
0
493
-409
-425
-444
-460
-472
-485
-493
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Thousand Metric Tons)
0
0
0
0
0
0
Chinese Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
29,680
29,226
28,657
28,423
(Thousand Hectares)
28,182
28,060
27,942
27,833
27,712
27,639
27,609
4.62
4.71
4.76
4.78
(Metric Tons per Hectares)
4.82
4.83
4.84
4.85
4.86
4.87
4.89
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
137,000
42,875
179,875
137,669
45,188
182,858
136,360
46,870
183,230
135,949
46,586
182,535
(Thousand Metric Tons)
135,774 135,468 135,300
45,837
44,778
43,877
181,611 180,245 179,178
134,961
43,825
178,786
134,713
43,577
178,291
134,702
43,251
177,953
134,901
42,631
177,532
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
133,557
45,188
178,745
134,941
46,870
181,810
135,504
46,586
182,090
135,454
45,837
181,291
135,552
44,778
180,330
135,044
43,877
178,922
134,007
43,825
177,832
133,878
43,577
177,455
133,688
43,251
176,938
133,949
42,631
176,580
133,378
42,716
176,095
1,130
1,048
1,139
1,244
1,281
1,324
1,345
1,331
1,352
1,373
1,437
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Cote d'Ivoire Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
400
402
358
347
(Thousand Hectares)
347
344
346
347
344
344
342
Yield
1.24
1.16
1.17
1.19
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.20
1.21
1.22
1.23
1.25
1.26
1.27
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
495
90
585
467
89
556
420
112
532
411
111
522
(Thousand Metric Tons)
415
416
423
113
118
117
528
534
540
428
119
546
429
122
550
432
123
555
434
125
559
1,292
89
1,381
1,410
112
1,522
1,455
111
1,566
1,564
113
1,677
1,615
118
1,733
1,658
117
1,774
1,704
119
1,822
1,758
122
1,879
1,788
123
1,911
1,827
125
1,953
1,848
150
1,997
-796
-966
-1,034
-1,155
-1,205
-1,240
-1,283
-1,333
-1,360
-1,398
-1,438
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
174 / World Rice: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Egyptian Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
670
672
673
Yield
6.53
6.62
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
4,374
792
5,166
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
677
(Thousand Hectares)
682
688
690
692
691
691
690
6.78
6.83
(Metric Tons per Hectares)
6.88
6.93
6.98
7.03
7.07
7.12
7.24
4,450
731
5,181
4,563
752
5,314
4,630
750
5,379
(Thousand Metric Tons)
4,691
4,767
4,815
768
787
827
5,459
5,554
5,642
4,860
846
5,706
4,888
843
5,731
4,915
797
5,712
4,992
707
5,699
4,003
731
4,734
3,876
752
4,628
3,953
750
4,703
3,982
768
4,750
4,044
787
4,831
4,068
827
4,895
4,124
846
4,970
4,174
843
5,017
4,225
797
5,022
4,295
707
5,002
4,365
609
4,973
432
553
612
629
628
658
672
689
709
710
725
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
European Union Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
454
454
454
450
(Thousand Hectares)
451
451
452
453
456
457
458
Yield
4.38
4.23
4.24
4.24
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
4.25
4.27
4.28
4.30
4.32
4.34
4.36
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,988
1,020
3,008
1,924
1,101
3,025
1,927
1,229
3,155
1,909
1,342
3,251
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,917
1,923
1,935
1,412
1,459
1,451
3,329
3,382
3,387
1,952
1,434
3,386
1,970
1,413
3,383
1,987
1,400
3,387
1,997
1,410
3,407
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
3,110
1,101
4,211
3,157
1,229
4,385
3,176
1,342
4,518
3,215
1,412
4,627
3,261
1,459
4,720
3,304
1,451
4,755
3,344
1,434
4,778
3,387
1,413
4,800
3,422
1,400
4,822
3,459
1,410
4,869
7,895
1,411
9,306
-1,203
-1,360
-1,362
-1,376
-1,390
-1,374
-1,391
-1,414
-1,439
-1,482
-1,539
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Net Trade
13/14
Ghanaian Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
125
124
132
136
(Thousand Hectares)
138
138
138
139
138
138
139
Yield
1.25
1.31
1.34
1.35
(Metric Tons per Hectares)
1.37
1.39
1.42
1.45
1.47
1.50
1.53
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
156
65
221
162
65
228
176
78
254
184
78
262
(Thousand Metric Tons)
190
193
196
77
74
71
267
267
267
200
69
270
203
69
272
207
71
278
212
73
285
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
506
65
572
520
78
598
521
78
599
515
77
592
500
74
574
484
71
554
475
69
544
475
69
544
485
71
556
494
73
567
508
76
584
-351
-370
-345
-330
-307
-287
-278
-275
-284
-289
-299
Net Trade
World Rice: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 175
Guinean Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
820
813
821
Yield
0.71
0.74
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
585
0
585
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
832
(Thousand Hectares)
844
854
862
872
879
886
894
0.78
0.82
(Metric Tons per Hectares)
0.86
0.88
0.91
0.93
0.94
0.95
0.96
600
0
600
637
3
640
684
4
688
(Thousand Metric Tons)
728
750
787
5
5
5
733
755
792
810
5
815
822
6
828
844
6
850
857
6
863
733
0
733
819
3
822
844
4
849
880
5
885
913
5
918
948
5
953
972
5
977
1,013
6
1,019
1,038
6
1,044
1,070
6
1,077
1,093
6
1,099
-148
-222
-208
-196
-185
-198
-185
-204
-215
-227
-235
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Chinese - Hong Kong Rice Supply and Utilization
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
350
0
350
381
0
381
385
0
385
388
0
388
392
0
392
396
0
396
400
0
400
405
0
405
408
0
408
411
0
411
413
0
413
-350
-381
-385
-388
-392
-396
-400
-405
-408
-411
-413
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Thousand Metric Tons)
0
0
0
0
0
0
Indian Rice Supply and Utilization
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
38,800
44,010
44,141
44,247
(Thousand Hectares)
44,515
44,570
44,698
44,848
45,014
45,196
45,400
2.18
2.23
2.24
2.25
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.27
2.29
2.31
2.33
2.36
2.36
2.38
84,500
17,000
101,500
98,070
10,812
108,882
98,720
13,062
111,782
99,611
13,454
113,065
(Thousand Metric Tons)
101,169 102,041 103,204
13,376
13,458
13,155
114,545 115,499 116,358
104,513
12,643
117,156
106,014
12,022
118,036
106,809
12,095
118,904
107,963
11,789
119,752
88,806
10,812
99,618
91,384
13,062
104,446
92,570
13,454
106,024
93,884
13,376
107,259
94,916
13,458
108,374
96,083
13,155
109,237
97,193
12,643
109,836
98,383
12,022
110,405
99,102
12,095
111,197
100,194
11,789
111,983
101,094
11,585
112,679
1,982
4,436
5,758
5,806
6,170
6,262
6,522
6,751
6,838
6,921
7,072
176 / World Rice: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Indonesian Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
12,000
11,872
11,820
3.08
3.16
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
37,000
7,057
44,057
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
11,855
(Thousand Hectares)
11,892
11,930
11,929
11,911
11,927
11,974
11,966
3.17
3.21
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.21
3.21
3.24
3.27
3.28
3.29
3.29
37,518
6,958
44,476
37,520
6,797
44,317
38,051
6,833
44,884
(Thousand Metric Tons)
38,193
38,314
38,694
6,892
6,834
6,725
45,085
45,148
45,420
38,907
6,497
45,404
39,157
6,079
45,236
39,358
5,579
44,937
39,376
5,045
44,420
37,402
6,958
44,360
38,649
6,797
45,446
38,726
6,833
45,558
39,209
6,892
46,101
39,505
6,834
46,339
39,824
6,725
46,550
40,323
6,497
46,820
40,749
6,079
46,829
41,061
5,579
46,639
41,314
5,045
46,359
41,696
4,349
46,044
-303
-970
-1,241
-1,217
-1,254
-1,402
-1,401
-1,424
-1,403
-1,422
-1,624
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Iranian Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
625
631
633
635
(Thousand Hectares)
635
635
633
632
630
629
627
Yield
3.20
3.46
3.46
3.48
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.56
3.56
3.58
3.61
3.63
3.66
3.68
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,000
665
2,665
2,180
765
2,945
2,187
937
3,125
2,210
1,030
3,241
(Thousand Metric Tons)
2,262
2,258
2,268
1,087
1,137
1,162
3,348
3,395
3,429
2,281
1,194
3,475
2,290
1,229
3,519
2,303
1,252
3,555
2,309
1,280
3,590
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
3,600
765
4,366
3,698
937
4,635
3,745
1,030
4,776
3,809
1,087
4,895
3,955
1,137
5,092
3,956
1,162
5,118
4,090
1,194
5,285
4,209
1,229
5,438
4,254
1,252
5,507
4,360
1,280
5,641
4,491
1,314
5,805
-1,701
-1,690
-1,651
-1,655
-1,744
-1,723
-1,855
-1,963
-1,988
-2,086
-2,215
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
85
86
87
88
89
Net Trade
Iraqi Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
50
63
71
76
Yield
1.32
2.00
1.99
2.00
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.01
2.03
2.04
2.05
2.06
2.08
2.09
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
66
130
196
126
105
231
142
209
350
153
270
423
(Thousand Metric Tons)
163
169
174
309
333
351
472
502
525
177
364
541
179
375
554
182
385
567
186
394
581
1,191
105
1,296
1,269
209
1,477
1,333
270
1,603
1,374
309
1,683
1,415
333
1,749
1,449
351
1,800
1,486
364
1,849
1,522
375
1,897
1,558
385
1,943
1,601
394
1,995
1,660
405
2,064
-1,100
-1,247
-1,253
-1,260
-1,277
-1,297
-1,325
-1,356
-1,389
-1,428
-1,484
Area Harvested
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
(Thousand Hectares)
81
83
World Rice: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 177
Japanese Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1,610
1,566
1,514
1,500
(Thousand Hectares)
1,498
1,484
1,485
1,475
1,452
1,427
1,432
4.73
4.72
4.76
4.80
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
4.85
4.88
4.89
4.88
4.87
4.88
4.88
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
7,620
2,715
10,335
7,396
2,635
10,031
7,210
2,474
9,684
7,203
2,190
9,393
(Thousand Metric Tons)
7,262
7,241
7,257
2,068
2,084
2,143
9,330
9,325
9,400
7,194
2,301
9,495
7,064
2,472
9,536
6,966
2,585
9,551
6,987
2,660
9,647
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
8,200
2,635
10,835
8,039
2,474
10,513
7,975
2,190
10,166
7,807
2,068
9,875
7,728
2,084
9,812
7,664
2,143
9,807
7,581
2,301
9,882
7,506
2,472
9,977
7,433
2,585
10,018
7,373
2,660
10,033
7,329
2,800
10,129
-500
-482
-482
-482
-482
-482
-482
-482
-482
-482
-482
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
18
19
19
19
19
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
14/15
Kenyan Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
17
17
17
18
Yield
1.53
1.72
1.81
1.86
(Metric Tons per Hectares)
1.91
1.95
2.00
2.05
2.09
2.14
2.19
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
26
115
141
30
90
120
32
123
155
33
121
153
(Thousand Metric Tons)
34
35
37
121
131
130
155
166
167
38
134
172
39
142
181
41
143
184
42
149
191
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
298
90
388
382
123
505
389
121
509
402
121
523
440
131
571
451
130
581
472
134
606
505
142
647
521
143
665
546
149
695
547
144
690
-247
-385
-355
-369
-416
-415
-439
-475
-483
-511
-499
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Area Harvested
Net Trade
(Thousand Hectares)
18
18
Malaysian Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
670
674
675
674
(Thousand Hectares)
674
673
673
674
675
674
674
Yield
2.35
2.36
2.36
2.37
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.38
2.40
2.42
2.44
2.46
2.48
2.50
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,575
642
2,217
1,591
600
2,191
1,594
608
2,202
1,597
626
2,222
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,606
1,615
1,630
628
632
639
2,235
2,247
2,268
1,646
638
2,283
1,661
645
2,306
1,673
650
2,323
1,686
656
2,342
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,446
600
3,046
2,566
608
3,174
2,605
626
3,231
2,638
628
3,266
2,693
632
3,324
2,703
639
3,342
2,755
638
3,393
2,804
645
3,448
2,854
650
3,504
2,914
656
3,571
3,031
664
3,695
-829
-983
-1,029
-1,044
-1,090
-1,095
-1,125
-1,165
-1,199
-1,247
-1,352
Net Trade
178 / World Rice: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Malian Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
410
396
405
Yield
2.09
2.15
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
858
0
858
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
418
(Thousand Hectares)
430
436
441
447
449
454
461
2.21
2.25
(Metric Tons per Hectares)
2.30
2.35
2.39
2.45
2.50
2.55
2.60
851
1
852
895
4
899
942
5
947
(Thousand Metric Tons)
990
1,023
1,056
6
7
8
996
1,030
1,064
1,094
9
1,103
1,121
10
1,131
1,157
10
1,167
1,198
12
1,209
958
1
960
1,051
4
1,056
1,086
5
1,091
1,115
6
1,121
1,154
7
1,161
1,195
8
1,203
1,225
9
1,233
1,270
10
1,280
1,300
10
1,310
1,349
12
1,360
1,385
13
1,398
-102
-204
-192
-174
-165
-173
-170
-177
-180
-193
-188
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
57
57
57
57
57
Mexican Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
60
60
59
58
Yield
3.17
3.07
3.05
3.06
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.08
3.12
3.18
3.21
3.27
3.33
3.38
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
190
118
308
184
123
308
180
152
332
178
154
332
(Thousand Metric Tons)
177
179
182
159
163
166
336
342
348
184
167
352
188
171
358
191
174
365
194
177
371
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
781
123
904
813
152
965
842
154
996
869
159
1,028
900
163
1,064
927
166
1,093
960
167
1,127
991
171
1,162
1,025
174
1,198
1,060
177
1,236
1,095
178
1,273
-596
-658
-664
-696
-728
-751
-779
-810
-840
-872
-902
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Area Harvested
Net Trade
(Thousand Hectares)
58
57
Mozambican Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
180
183
186
189
(Thousand Hectares)
192
195
198
201
204
207
209
Yield
0.96
0.80
0.81
0.81
(Metric Tons per Hectares)
0.82
0.83
0.84
0.85
0.85
0.86
0.87
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
172
0
172
146
0
146
150
1
151
154
1
155
(Thousand Metric Tons)
158
162
166
2
2
3
160
165
169
170
3
173
174
4
178
178
4
182
182
5
187
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
522
0
522
511
1
511
533
1
534
554
2
556
574
2
576
592
3
594
605
3
608
628
4
631
640
4
643
666
5
671
677
5
681
-350
-366
-383
-400
-416
-430
-438
-458
-465
-489
-494
Net Trade
World Rice: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 179
Myanmarian Rice Supply and Utilization
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
7,000
7,024
7,062
7,098
(Thousand Hectares)
7,125
7,152
7,162
7,181
7,189
7,196
7,202
1.53
1.57
1.59
1.59
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.61
1.62
1.64
1.66
1.67
1.69
1.71
10,730
221
10,951
11,004
205
11,208
11,198
298
11,496
11,320
353
11,673
(Thousand Metric Tons)
11,472
11,602
11,767
353
356
360
11,824
11,958
12,127
11,908
377
12,285
12,029
396
12,424
12,149
364
12,513
12,290
293
12,582
9,739
205
9,944
9,859
298
10,157
9,969
353
10,322
10,073
353
10,425
10,198
356
10,554
10,295
360
10,655
10,422
377
10,799
10,539
396
10,934
10,653
364
11,017
10,772
293
11,065
10,875
246
11,120
1,007
1,051
1,174
1,248
1,270
1,303
1,328
1,351
1,408
1,448
1,462
14/15
Nigerian Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
2,400
2,406
2,387
2,394
(Thousand Hectares)
2,399
2,403
2,405
2,410
2,410
2,410
2,412
1.42
1.45
1.47
1.49
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.52
1.54
1.57
1.58
1.59
1.60
1.63
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
3,400
570
3,970
3,478
470
3,948
3,508
413
3,921
3,578
377
3,954
(Thousand Metric Tons)
3,643
3,706
3,769
353
336
325
3,995
4,042
4,093
3,810
317
4,127
3,820
311
4,131
3,854
307
4,161
3,940
303
4,244
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
5,100
470
5,570
5,479
413
5,891
5,611
377
5,987
5,753
353
6,106
5,901
336
6,238
6,021
325
6,346
6,164
317
6,480
6,316
311
6,627
6,463
307
6,770
6,614
303
6,917
6,743
301
7,044
-1,600
-1,943
-2,067
-2,152
-2,242
-2,303
-2,387
-2,501
-2,639
-2,757
-2,800
14/15
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Pakistani Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
2,800
2,809
2,791
2,808
(Thousand Hectares)
2,815
2,812
2,811
2,816
2,812
2,819
2,811
2.21
2.30
2.32
2.34
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.36
2.39
2.41
2.43
2.46
2.48
2.50
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
6,200
1,000
7,200
6,466
801
7,267
6,467
1,253
7,720
6,573
1,417
7,990
(Thousand Metric Tons)
6,655
6,712
6,773
1,504
1,577
1,490
8,159
8,290
8,263
6,852
1,511
8,364
6,908
1,567
8,475
6,991
1,532
8,523
7,037
1,533
8,569
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,609
801
3,409
2,953
1,253
4,205
3,049
1,417
4,466
3,081
1,504
4,586
3,124
1,577
4,702
3,154
1,490
4,644
3,201
1,511
4,712
3,246
1,567
4,813
3,277
1,532
4,809
3,320
1,533
4,852
3,341
1,462
4,803
3,791
3,062
3,254
3,404
3,457
3,646
3,551
3,550
3,666
3,670
3,766
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
180 / World Rice: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Philippine Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
4,450
4,539
4,536
4,545
(Thousand Hectares)
4,555
4,568
4,580
4,590
4,595
4,600
4,607
2.39
2.44
2.51
2.58
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.58
2.60
2.68
2.71
2.73
2.77
2.80
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
10,300
4,121
14,421
11,074
3,236
14,310
11,394
3,253
14,647
11,735
3,282
15,017
(Thousand Metric Tons)
11,762
11,884
12,274
3,312
3,349
3,399
15,075
15,233
15,672
12,439
3,433
15,872
12,537
3,477
16,014
12,736
3,519
16,255
12,887
3,557
16,444
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
13,784
3,236
17,020
14,040
3,253
17,293
14,290
3,282
17,571
14,595
3,312
17,907
15,018
3,349
18,367
15,267
3,399
18,666
15,635
3,433
19,069
15,965
3,477
19,442
16,263
3,519
19,782
16,557
3,557
20,114
16,827
3,594
20,421
-2,599
-2,983
-2,924
-2,891
-3,293
-3,433
-3,397
-3,570
-3,768
-3,859
-3,977
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Thousand Metric Tons)
0
0
0
484
487
491
484
487
491
0
494
494
0
498
498
0
501
501
0
504
504
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
14/15
Saudi Arabian Rice Supply and Utilization
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
0
411
411
0
432
432
0
473
473
0
480
480
1,299
432
1,731
1,369
473
1,843
1,408
480
1,888
1,447
484
1,930
1,484
487
1,972
1,520
491
2,011
1,555
494
2,050
1,591
498
2,089
1,623
501
2,124
1,656
504
2,160
1,685
507
2,192
-1,320
-1,411
-1,415
-1,450
-1,488
-1,523
-1,559
-1,595
-1,627
-1,659
-1,688
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Senegalese Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
105
104
107
110
(Thousand Hectares)
111
111
111
111
110
110
110
Yield
1.86
1.94
1.98
2.00
(Metric Tons per Hectares)
2.03
2.06
2.08
2.12
2.15
2.18
2.21
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
195
215
410
201
280
481
212
242
454
219
239
458
(Thousand Metric Tons)
225
228
231
247
255
243
472
484
474
234
252
487
236
262
498
239
272
510
242
282
524
831
280
1,111
812
242
1,054
845
239
1,084
884
247
1,131
927
255
1,183
971
243
1,214
1,018
252
1,270
1,066
262
1,328
1,115
272
1,387
1,166
282
1,448
1,218
292
1,510
-701
-573
-630
-672
-711
-730
-796
-841
-889
-937
-986
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
World Rice: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 181
Sierra Leonean Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
660
664
668
Yield
0.70
0.72
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
465
0
465
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
674
(Thousand Hectares)
681
689
699
709
720
733
747
0.73
0.74
(Metric Tons per Hectares)
0.76
0.79
0.81
0.84
0.86
0.89
0.92
481
1
482
489
3
492
499
3
502
(Thousand Metric Tons)
520
542
567
4
4
5
524
547
572
593
6
599
621
6
628
652
7
659
684
8
692
594
1
595
641
3
644
656
3
659
668
4
672
688
4
692
705
5
710
720
6
726
740
6
746
756
7
763
779
8
787
795
9
804
-130
-162
-167
-169
-169
-163
-154
-148
-136
-128
-111
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
0
0
0
0
0
South African Rice Supply and Utilization
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
0
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
50
50
0
65
65
0
91
91
0
94
94
(Thousand Metric Tons)
0
0
0
98
103
107
98
103
107
0
112
112
0
118
118
0
123
123
0
132
132
711
65
776
953
91
1,043
972
94
1,066
992
98
1,090
1,013
103
1,116
1,034
107
1,141
1,060
112
1,172
1,090
118
1,208
1,116
123
1,239
1,158
132
1,290
1,186
137
1,323
-726
-978
-975
-996
-1,018
-1,038
-1,065
-1,096
-1,121
-1,167
-1,192
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Thousand Hectares)
0
0
South Korean Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
925
897
861
837
(Thousand Hectares)
821
810
799
793
787
785
781
Yield
5.31
5.36
5.36
5.36
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
5.37
5.37
5.37
5.37
5.37
5.38
5.38
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
4,910
825
5,735
4,810
1,057
5,867
4,613
1,235
5,848
4,486
1,271
5,757
(Thousand Metric Tons)
4,405
4,352
4,290
1,255
1,202
1,184
5,660
5,553
5,474
4,262
1,179
5,441
4,224
1,237
5,460
4,228
1,253
5,481
4,201
1,340
5,541
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
4,978
1,057
6,035
4,959
1,235
6,194
4,925
1,271
6,196
4,869
1,255
6,125
4,846
1,202
6,048
4,778
1,184
5,962
4,704
1,179
5,883
4,613
1,237
5,849
4,616
1,253
5,869
4,550
1,340
5,890
4,586
1,364
5,950
-300
-327
-348
-368
-388
-409
-409
-409
-409
-409
-409
Net Trade
182 / World Rice: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Taiwanese Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
255
254
252
Yield
3.97
4.15
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,020
202
1,222
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
248
(Thousand Hectares)
244
240
238
235
233
231
229
4.17
4.16
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
4.17
4.16
4.15
4.15
4.16
4.15
4.18
1,056
200
1,256
1,051
270
1,320
1,030
330
1,360
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,015
1,000
986
368
390
393
1,383
1,390
1,379
975
382
1,358
969
361
1,330
960
339
1,299
959
315
1,274
1,092
200
1,292
1,094
270
1,363
1,098
330
1,428
1,100
368
1,467
1,100
390
1,491
1,105
393
1,498
1,104
382
1,486
1,104
361
1,465
1,098
339
1,438
1,092
315
1,407
1,085
296
1,381
-70
-108
-108
-108
-108
-108
-108
-108
-108
-108
-108
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Tanzanian Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
680
684
690
696
(Thousand Hectares)
701
707
712
717
723
728
734
Yield
1.26
1.33
1.37
1.43
(Metric Tons per Hectares)
1.45
1.47
1.49
1.51
1.53
1.55
1.57
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
857
0
857
906
1
907
947
4
952
995
7
1,002
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,018
1,040
1,062
11
15
18
1,029
1,055
1,080
1,085
22
1,107
1,107
26
1,133
1,130
28
1,158
1,153
32
1,185
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
935
1
936
1,061
4
1,066
1,091
7
1,099
1,129
11
1,140
1,178
15
1,192
1,210
18
1,228
1,251
22
1,273
1,303
26
1,329
1,321
28
1,349
1,358
32
1,390
1,373
34
1,407
-79
-158
-147
-138
-164
-173
-192
-222
-217
-232
-223
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Net Trade
Thai Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
10,900
10,929
10,942
10,952
(Thousand Hectares)
10,970
11,000
11,012
11,034
11,047
11,063
11,065
1.88
1.88
1.90
1.92
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.94
1.95
1.97
1.98
2.00
2.02
2.03
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
20,500
4,037
24,537
20,567
5,074
25,640
20,802
5,032
25,834
21,044
4,812
25,856
(Thousand Metric Tons)
21,296
21,434
21,646
4,745
4,751
4,774
26,041
26,185
26,420
21,871
4,842
26,713
22,079
4,831
26,911
22,294
4,775
27,069
22,482
4,661
27,143
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
9,665
5,074
14,739
9,876
5,032
14,907
9,925
4,812
14,738
9,975
4,745
14,720
10,018
4,751
14,769
10,052
4,774
14,826
10,043
4,842
14,885
10,008
4,831
14,839
10,042
4,775
14,817
10,042
4,661
14,703
10,032
4,613
14,646
9,798
10,733
11,097
11,136
11,273
11,358
11,535
11,874
12,094
12,366
12,497
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
World Rice: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 183
Turkish Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
100
100
98
96
Yield
4.30
4.23
4.24
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
430
250
680
421
228
649
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
643
228
871
-191
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
95
94
94
94
93
4.25
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
4.26
4.27
4.28
4.29
4.30
4.34
4.40
415
211
626
410
207
616
(Thousand Metric Tons)
407
406
405
203
203
201
611
609
606
406
200
605
405
200
605
407
198
605
411
195
607
650
211
861
658
207
865
668
203
871
681
203
884
692
201
893
705
200
905
720
200
919
732
198
930
743
195
939
758
195
953
-212
-238
-254
-273
-284
-299
-314
-325
-334
-346
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Thousand Hectares)
96
95
Uruguayan Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
160
159
159
160
(Thousand Hectares)
160
161
162
164
166
168
170
Yield
5.60
5.80
5.97
6.14
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
6.25
6.37
6.62
6.67
6.71
6.83
6.87
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
896
63
959
921
59
980
950
59
1,009
982
59
1,042
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,003
1,025
1,073
60
60
60
1,063
1,085
1,133
1,095
60
1,155
1,111
60
1,171
1,145
60
1,204
1,169
60
1,229
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
150
59
209
159
59
218
163
59
223
166
60
225
166
60
226
167
60
227
171
60
231
170
60
229
171
60
231
173
60
233
175
60
235
750
762
786
816
837
858
902
926
940
972
994
14/15
Net Trade
Vietnamese Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
7,330
7,441
7,417
7,409
(Thousand Hectares)
7,412
7,419
7,407
7,404
7,408
7,415
7,342
3.31
3.31
3.34
3.37
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.38
3.39
3.40
3.42
3.44
3.45
3.45
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
24,300
1,956
26,256
24,622
2,099
26,721
24,736
2,160
26,896
24,981
2,269
27,250
(Thousand Metric Tons)
25,041
25,116
25,202
2,394
2,432
2,459
27,435
27,548
27,661
25,315
2,490
27,805
25,451
2,334
27,785
25,552
2,347
27,900
25,325
2,368
27,693
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
19,153
2,099
21,252
19,986
2,160
22,146
20,048
2,269
22,317
20,211
2,394
22,605
20,450
2,432
22,882
20,365
2,459
22,824
20,375
2,490
22,866
20,339
2,334
22,672
20,463
2,347
22,811
20,452
2,368
22,820
20,407
2,229
22,636
5,004
4,575
4,580
4,645
4,553
4,723
4,795
5,133
4,974
5,079
5,057
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
184 / World Rice: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Rest-of-World Rice Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
9,568
6,006
6,896
7,445
(Thousand Hectares)
7,397
7,582
7,884
7,748
7,601
7,341
7,384
2.23
2.68
2.83
2.47
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.43
2.41
2.38
2.62
2.70
2.99
2.89
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
21,338
1,976
23,314
16,074
4,500
20,574
19,490
2,698
22,188
18,382
4,830
23,212
(Thousand Metric Tons)
17,984
18,272
18,761
5,274
4,139
4,485
23,257
22,412
23,246
20,273
4,195
24,468
20,511
5,164
25,676
21,948
5,367
27,315
21,353
6,597
27,950
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
28,082
4,500
32,582
26,249
2,698
28,947
26,602
4,830
31,431
27,279
5,274
32,553
28,036
4,139
32,175
26,944
4,485
31,429
28,194
4,195
32,389
28,618
5,164
33,782
29,677
5,367
35,044
30,152
6,597
36,749
26,520
6,469
32,989
-9,599
-8,352
-9,244
-9,341
-8,918
-9,017
-9,143
-9,315
-9,369
-9,434
-9,399
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
8.7
15.6
202.1
45.2
275.9
21.6
12.6
90.3
46.6
6.8
17.9
82.5
55.3
77.6
157.7
58.0
44.6
73.1
60.8
10.6
96.9
77.9
8.1
25.0
185.0
36.8
16.8
142.6
49.3
63.4
122.4
21.9
95.8
47.6
27.1
147.2
8.5
13.9
47.7
216.0
20.0
64.2
8.7
15.7
202.2
45.2
277.7
22.6
13.0
89.8
46.3
6.9
17.6
83.8
55.8
77.7
157.8
59.1
44.7
74.0
60.4
11.1
97.0
78.7
8.3
25.5
185.2
37.1
16.8
143.1
49.8
64.8
122.9
22.5
93.8
47.5
27.8
146.0
8.6
14.0
47.1
213.5
20.0
64.1
8.7
15.7
202.2
44.6
279.2
22.7
13.2
89.4
46.1
6.9
17.7
83.6
56.0
77.3
157.6
59.1
44.8
73.9
60.1
11.3
97.2
78.5
8.5
25.5
185.4
37.3
16.7
143.3
50.1
66.1
122.7
23.1
93.7
47.2
27.7
145.9
8.7
14.0
47.3
212.8
20.4
64.0
8.8
16.0
202.4
44.7
280.7
23.0
13.5
89.2
46.1
7.0
17.7
84.0
56.3
77.3
157.1
60.0
45.1
74.2
60.0
11.6
97.7
79.4
8.7
26.1
185.7
37.5
16.7
143.4
50.5
67.5
123.3
23.9
92.3
46.9
28.0
145.3
8.7
14.0
47.7
210.8
20.5
63.9
8.8
16.2
203.3
44.6
282.0
23.0
13.7
88.5
46.1
16.0
17.9
83.5
56.4
77.1
157.2
61.2
45.9
73.7
59.9
11.5
100.0
79.4
8.9
26.0
185.6
37.6
16.6
143.3
50.8
68.9
123.0
24.5
93.0
46.6
27.9
144.6
8.8
14.0
48.0
208.5
17.7
63.8
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
14/15
Per Capita Rice Consumption of Selected Countries
Argentina
Australia
Bangladesh
Brazil
Cambodia
Cameroon
Canada
China
Egypt
European Union-27
Ghana
Guinea
China - Hong Kong
India
Indonesia
Iran
Iraq
Ivory Coast
Japan
Kenya
Malaysia
Mali
Mexico
Mozambique
Myanmar (Burma)
Nigeria
Pakistan
Philippines
Saudi Arabia
Senegal
Sierra Leone
South Africa
South Korea
Taiwan
Tanzania
Thailand
Turkey
United States
Uruguay
Vietnam
Rest of World
World
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
8.0
14.8
201.2
43.5
266.1
17.5
10.2
92.4
50.8
6.3
21.2
72.9
49.7
76.8
155.7
54.2
41.1
62.7
64.5
7.6
95.1
71.3
7.0
24.1
184.4
34.2
14.9
140.7
45.3
60.6
115.8
14.5
102.6
47.5
22.8
146.4
8.4
13.5
43.0
216.2
21.8
64.6
8.4
14.7
202.0
46.0
266.3
19.1
10.6
93.0
48.2
6.4
21.4
79.3
53.7
77.9
159.1
55.2
42.8
67.0
63.4
9.5
98.1
76.2
7.2
23.2
184.6
36.0
16.7
140.5
46.9
57.6
122.3
19.4
102.0
47.5
25.3
148.7
8.3
13.7
45.2
223.1
20.1
65.1
8.5
15.2
200.3
45.8
267.2
20.5
10.8
93.0
48.2
6.4
21.0
79.6
54.0
77.8
157.7
55.3
43.9
67.7
63.1
9.5
97.9
76.7
7.4
23.7
184.6
36.1
16.9
140.3
47.4
58.4
122.3
19.8
101.0
47.6
25.5
148.6
8.4
13.8
46.3
221.4
20.0
64.9
8.5
15.5
200.2
45.6
269.7
21.2
11.3
92.5
47.6
6.5
20.4
80.8
54.3
77.9
158.0
55.7
44.1
71.2
61.9
9.6
97.5
76.7
7.6
24.2
184.5
36.4
16.9
140.6
47.9
59.5
121.7
20.3
99.7
47.6
25.9
148.5
8.4
13.8
46.8
220.8
20.2
64.8
8.6
15.5
200.8
45.4
272.0
21.4
11.8
92.2
47.4
6.6
19.5
81.7
54.6
77.7
157.5
57.3
44.4
72.1
61.5
10.2
97.9
77.4
7.7
24.6
184.8
36.6
16.9
142.1
48.4
60.8
122.6
20.9
99.0
47.5
26.5
148.3
8.4
13.8
46.7
221.1
20.5
64.8
14/15
(Kilograms)
8.6
15.5
201.8
45.3
274.0
21.4
12.2
91.4
46.8
6.7
18.5
82.6
55.0
77.7
157.2
56.7
44.5
72.6
61.2
10.3
96.6
78.0
7.9
24.9
184.7
36.7
16.8
141.8
48.8
62.1
122.8
21.4
97.4
47.7
26.7
148.1
8.5
13.9
46.8
218.0
19.4
64.3
WORLD COARSE GRAINS
186 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Coarse Grains
The world coarse grain area is projected to increase in 2010/11 by 1.3 mha, to 253.6 mha. Coarse grain area
reaches 260.4 mha in 2019/20. Corn area increases the most, especially in the U.S. and in Asian countries,
followed by sorghum. Barley area declines over the projection period. World coarse grain production is projected
to reach 1.140 billion mt in 2019/20, whereas coarse grain consumption reaches 1.139 billion mt that year.
The corn price increases to $168.32 per mt in 2010/11. It is projected to increase further in 2011/12 to $170.04
per mt. It reaches $175.6 per mt in 2019/20. The stocks-to-use ratio decreases to 16.3% in 2009/10. It decreases
over the next 10 years to reach 14.3% in 2019/20 because of consumption growth.
World corn area decreased by 2.2 mha in 2009/10, to 155.1 mha, because of decreases in EU, Argentine, Brazilian
and Mexican corn area. It increases to 156.0 mha in 2010/11 and reaches 161.8 mha in 2019/20. Production
reaches 918.9 mmt in 2019/20 because of growth in area and yields.
Corn feed use increases by 45.8 mmt over the next decade, reaching 536.2 mmt, because of growth in the
livestock sector. The largest demand increase comes from Asian countries, followed by Latin American countries.
Food and industrial use reaches 381.5 mmt in 2019/20. Both population growth and the continuing growth of the
ethanol industry contribute to the rising demand.
In 2009/10, corn net trade increases since consumption increases more than production. In 2010/11corn net trade
declines. Over the next 10 years, corn net trade is projected to increase, reaching 92.5 mmt in 2019/20, because of
demand growth in major importing regions such as Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.
Argentina increases its corn production by 7.7 mmt over the next 10 years because of growth in area and yields.
Argentina’s net exports increase by 7.2 mmt, reaching 15.2 mmt in 2019/20. Brazilian production grows by 10.9
mmt over the projection period. Brazil’s net exports reach only 4.0 mmt in 2019/20 as domestic consumption
growth exceeds production growth.
The largest demand increase for corn comes from Asian countries because of growth in their livestock industry
and therefore in feed demand. Asian net imports increase by 7.3 mmt over the next decade. African net imports
increase by 2.0 mmt over the projection period. China becomes a net importer of corn in 2011/12, with imports
reaching 3.4 mmt in 2019/20. Among Latin American countries, Mexico maintains its role as a major importer,
with imports reaching 11.0 mmt in 2019/20. Mexico also increases its imports of U.S. corn by-products. Middle
Eastern corn net imports reach 10.2 mmt in 2019/20.
The world sorghum price increases in 2009/10 because of lower production. It is projected to increase again in
2010/11, to $172.3 per mt. World sorghum net trade grows slightly over the projection period, reaching 5.0 mmt
by 2019/20 with growth in demand. Mexico’s net imports of sorghum reach 2.2 mmt and Japan’s net imports
reach 1.7 mmt in 2019/20.
The barley price decreases in 2010/11 to $131.9 per mt with high carryover stocks that increase the supply. Net
trade reaches 18.8 mmt in 2019/20. The EU’s barley net exports reach only 2.1 mmt in 2019/20. Australian net
exports decrease in 2010/11 because of lower production. They reach 2.9 mmt by 2019/20.
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 187
Corn Trade
Net Exporters
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
China
South Africa
Thailand
Ukraine
United States
Total Net Exports *
Net Importers
Algeria
Canada
Egypt
European Union
India
Indonesia
Israel
Japan
Malaysia
Mexico
Other Africa
Other Asia
Other CIS †
Other Eastern Europe ‡
Other Latin America
Other Middle East
Pakistan
Philippines
Russia
South Korea
Taiwan
Vietnam
Rest of World
Residual
Total Net Imports
Coarse Grain Prices
Corn (FOB Gulf)
Sorghum (FOB Gulf)
Barley (Canada Feed)
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
7,975
10
7,750
450
1,475
250
4,990
51,826
11,188
6
3,258
323
2,187
383
5,063
50,996
12,572
-2
4,262
-674
2,440
537
5,161
51,791
77,596
75,735
2,100
1,700
4,200
1,000
-995
0
1,000
16,300
2,590
9,450
4,655
-50
0
320
11,880
7,625
10
400
50
7,500
4,600
700
-1,825
1,516
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
13,137
-10
4,388
-1,106
2,558
588
5,239
53,364
(Thousand Metric Tons)
13,751
14,428
14,752
-20
-25
-28
4,400
4,562
4,804
-1,708
-2,033
-2,124
2,570
2,718
2,749
528
536
544
5,253
5,250
5,267
55,019
55,365
56,561
14,998
-31
4,725
-2,167
2,848
555
5,283
57,406
15,041
-35
4,367
-2,591
3,263
566
5,302
59,190
15,146
-38
4,456
-3,052
3,575
572
5,282
60,649
15,217
-41
4,051
-3,420
3,807
578
5,295
61,819
78,951
81,217
83,128
84,386
86,168
87,363
89,360
91,354
92,457
2,080
1,392
4,099
829
-672
673
1,154
16,636
2,543
9,490
3,928
-43
-2
256
10,191
8,275
10
471
160
7,180
4,178
675
-1,614
1,516
2,104
1,162
4,595
1,006
-617
833
1,173
17,437
2,562
9,571
4,665
-129
30
279
10,781
8,519
10
455
42
7,195
3,807
534
-1,444
1,516
2,111
1,174
4,916
1,062
-391
767
1,176
17,854
2,571
9,750
5,407
-100
59
359
11,220
8,560
10
499
62
7,040
3,493
495
-1,453
1,516
2,121
1,351
5,190
1,006
-66
676
1,179
18,052
2,585
9,790
5,873
-59
110
438
11,149
8,721
10
597
113
7,006
3,393
526
-1,484
1,516
2,128
1,287
5,391
982
300
676
1,180
18,123
2,599
10,080
5,857
-15
155
509
11,054
8,586
10
656
180
7,045
3,460
556
-1,512
1,516
2,134
1,342
5,723
1,145
501
705
1,183
18,068
2,614
10,130
6,053
15
199
554
11,177
8,750
10
676
274
7,108
3,546
594
-1,490
1,516
2,140
1,352
5,949
1,194
553
720
1,190
18,005
2,636
10,494
5,936
49
243
577
11,365
8,823
10
702
349
7,101
3,627
634
-1,548
1,516
2,143
1,385
6,268
1,227
671
747
1,193
18,107
2,651
10,709
6,194
105
295
580
11,411
8,885
10
737
459
7,086
3,650
705
-1,632
1,516
2,148
1,578
6,521
1,211
808
807
1,199
18,117
2,670
10,833
6,471
175
344
578
11,553
8,944
10
787
565
7,008
3,628
795
-1,675
1,516
2,158
1,711
6,599
1,173
775
778
1,208
18,197
2,695
10,991
6,532
190
389
567
11,752
9,000
10
771
594
6,964
3,600
827
-1,690
1,516
77,596
75,735
78,951
81,217
83,128
84,386
86,168
87,363
89,360
91,354
92,457
163
169
135
168
172
132
170
172
143
171
174
135
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
173
175
177
176
178
181
137
139
143
177
182
142
178
184
143
178
186
144
176
183
148
* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
† Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
‡ Countries included: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro.
188 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Barley Trade
Net Exporters
Argentina
Australia
Canada
European Union
Other CIS *
Russia
Ukraine
United States
Total Net Exports †
Net Importers
Algeria
Brazil
China
Israel
Japan
Mexico
Other Africa
Other Asia
Other Eastern Europe ‡
Other Latin America
Other Middle East
Pakistan
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
Taiwan
Rest of World
Residual
Total Net Imports
Coarse Grain Prices
Corn (FOB Gulf)
Sorghum (FOB Gulf)
Barley (Canada Feed)
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
900
3,800
1,450
1,850
591
2,100
5,995
-435
821
2,729
1,704
2,533
856
1,084
6,692
93
856
2,828
2,035
2,357
934
1,019
6,724
-45
879
3,055
2,559
2,042
943
1,309
6,742
-135
(Thousand Metric Tons)
874
889
910
2,890
2,894
2,888
2,738
2,991
3,094
2,198
2,076
2,165
921
927
946
1,960
1,994
2,123
6,520
6,464
6,404
-143
-141
-127
925
2,889
3,197
2,152
955
2,206
6,342
-138
937
2,892
3,263
2,114
961
2,269
6,256
-135
954
2,914
3,285
2,104
973
2,410
6,179
-140
976
2,963
3,350
2,058
992
2,316
6,091
-157
16,686
16,525
16,752
17,528
18,101
18,236
18,529
18,666
18,693
18,818
18,768
0
250
1,480
325
1,400
150
630
100
80
400
3,110
0
8,000
75
50
95
106
-11
444
1,398
342
1,385
242
1,012
86
115
469
3,144
0
7,581
91
52
59
106
96
436
1,443
330
1,388
44
1,209
41
123
354
3,140
0
7,864
85
47
2
106
183
457
1,714
346
1,488
116
1,272
36
135
465
3,139
0
7,787
79
50
20
106
224
466
1,834
344
1,502
90
1,284
101
149
476
3,223
0
7,990
78
51
41
106
226
470
1,974
343
1,500
81
1,323
102
156
517
3,209
0
7,930
73
52
33
106
232
469
2,086
341
1,482
70
1,459
93
159
537
3,183
0
8,050
68
52
14
106
250
476
2,121
343
1,479
69
1,470
91
160
559
3,168
0
8,108
64
53
10
106
161
481
2,159
343
1,470
74
1,503
103
159
582
3,158
0
8,136
60
54
9
106
190
488
2,174
343
1,467
77
1,537
104
157
605
3,144
0
8,172
56
54
3
106
176
485
2,192
338
1,448
73
1,556
88
151
621
3,099
0
8,176
50
53
-21
106
16,686
16,525
16,752
17,528
18,101
18,236
18,529
18,666
18,693
18,818
18,768
163
169
135
168
172
132
170
172
143
171
174
135
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
173
175
177
176
178
181
137
139
143
177
182
142
178
184
143
178
186
144
176
183
148
* Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
† Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
‡ Countries included: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro.
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 189
Sorghum Trade
Net Exporters
Argentina
Australia
United States
Total Net Exports *
Net Importers
India
Israel
Japan
Mexico
Nigeria
Pakistan
South Africa
Rest of World
Residual
Total Net Imports
Coarse Grain Prices
Corn (FOB Gulf)
Sorghum (FOB Gulf)
Barley (Canada Feed)
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1,000
1,000
3,558
526
676
3,505
727
685
3,245
777
732
3,173
(Thousand Metric Tons)
817
854
879
786
825
791
3,185
3,147
3,180
885
748
3,242
901
748
3,333
901
750
3,479
906
759
3,272
5,668
4,810
4,728
4,802
4,889
4,957
4,964
4,991
5,109
5,216
5,013
-25
75
1,500
2,600
-50
0
-35
1,357
136
-34
75
1,481
2,654
-50
0
-19
463
136
0
73
1,573
2,473
-50
0
-21
472
136
-49
73
1,632
2,407
-50
0
-21
555
136
-25
71
1,657
2,375
-50
0
-25
650
136
-57
71
1,661
2,368
-50
0
-25
722
136
-39
69
1,651
2,362
-50
0
-25
747
136
-40
68
1,642
2,382
-50
0
-26
763
136
-49
67
1,635
2,441
-50
0
-27
830
136
-11
66
1,635
2,472
-50
0
-26
908
136
16
67
1,654
2,202
-50
0
-27
938
136
5,668
4,810
4,728
4,802
4,889
4,957
4,964
4,991
5,109
5,216
5,013
163
169
135
168
172
132
170
172
143
171
174
135
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
173
175
177
176
178
181
137
139
143
177
182
142
178
184
143
178
186
144
176
183
148
* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
14/15
190 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Corn Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
155,093
156,028
157,337
5.13
5.16
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
795,935
143,305
939,240
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Area Harvested
Yield
Trade *
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
158,006
(Thousand Hectares)
158,662 159,473
159,874
160,399
160,843
161,426
161,758
5.23
5.29
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
5.35
5.41
5.47
5.53
5.59
5.63
5.68
804,744
131,739
936,483
823,205
127,413
950,618
835,829
127,514
963,343
(Thousand Metric Tons)
848,863 863,370
875,022
887,612
898,623
127,531 127,551
127,674
127,410
127,964
976,395 990,921 1,002,696 1,015,021 1,026,588
909,205
918,887
128,483
130,017
1,037,689 1,048,904
490,386
317,114
131,739
939,240
478,097
330,973
127,413
936,483
487,569
335,535
127,514
950,618
494,464
341,348
127,531
963,343
500,895
347,948
127,551
976,395
530,019
536,213
377,653
381,498
130,017
131,193
1,037,689 1,048,904
77,596
75,735
78,951
81,217
83,128
84,386
86,168
87,363
89,360
91,354
92,457
16.31
15.75
15.49
15.26
15.03
(Percent)
14.79
14.56
14.43
14.31
14.32
14.30
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
507,480
513,275
519,708
525,224
355,767
362,011
367,349
372,881
127,674
127,410
127,964
128,483
990,921 1,002,696 1,015,021 1,026,588
* Excludes intraregional trade.
World Barley Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
55,246
53,452
53,670
54,433
(Thousand Hectares)
54,585
54,558
54,588
54,657
54,630
54,685
54,623
2.70
2.63
2.64
2.66
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.67
2.69
2.71
2.73
2.75
2.76
2.78
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
149,183
29,297
178,480
140,631
31,261
171,892
141,583
28,754
170,337
144,573
26,175
170,748
(Thousand Metric Tons)
145,859 147,003
148,135
24,866
24,732
24,837
170,724 171,736
172,972
149,128
24,966
174,094
150,012
25,233
175,245
151,063
25,314
176,378
151,964
25,450
177,414
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
102,659
44,560
31,261
178,480
97,028
46,111
28,754
171,892
97,551
46,611
26,175
170,337
97,877
48,006
24,866
170,748
97,811
48,182
24,732
170,725
98,288
48,611
24,837
171,736
98,973
49,033
24,966
172,972
99,407
49,454
25,233
174,095
100,063
49,868
25,314
175,246
100,589
50,339
25,450
176,378
100,416
51,548
25,450
177,415
16,686
16,525
16,752
17,528
18,101
18,236
18,529
18,666
18,693
18,818
18,768
21.23
20.09
18.16
17.04
16.94
(Percent)
16.91
16.87
16.95
16.88
16.86
16.75
Area Harvested
Yield
Trade *
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
* Excludes intraregional trade.
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 191
World Sorghum Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
41,904
44,091
44,846
1.49
1.52
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
62,349
4,638
66,987
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Area Harvested
Yield
Trade *
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
* Excludes intraregional trade.
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
44,576
(Thousand Hectares)
44,422
44,104
44,058
44,133
44,082
44,031
44,005
1.53
1.54
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.54
1.55
1.56
1.57
1.57
1.57
1.58
66,914
4,754
71,668
68,566
5,146
73,713
68,681
5,259
73,940
(Thousand Metric Tons)
68,507
68,303
68,631
5,277
5,288
5,296
73,784
73,591
73,926
69,088
5,288
74,376
69,130
5,323
74,453
69,071
5,345
74,416
69,631
5,370
75,001
24,911
37,322
4,754
66,987
25,853
40,669
5,146
71,668
26,169
42,286
5,259
73,713
26,020
42,644
5,277
73,940
25,907
42,590
5,288
73,784
25,854
42,442
5,296
73,591
25,795
42,843
5,288
73,927
25,745
43,308
5,323
74,377
25,712
43,397
5,345
74,453
25,653
43,393
5,370
74,416
25,574
43,969
5,458
75,001
5,668
4,810
4,728
4,802
4,889
4,957
4,964
4,991
5,109
5,216
5,013
7.64
7.74
7.68
7.68
7.72
(Percent)
7.75
7.70
7.71
7.73
7.78
7.85
192 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
32,225
33,314
33,584
10.37
10.03
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
334,052
42,504
376,556
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Corn
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Sorghum
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
33,530
(Thousand Hectares)
33,694
33,822
33,868
33,877
33,877
33,924
33,816
10.16
10.29
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
10.43
10.56
10.70
10.85
10.98
11.11
11.23
333,998
43,778
377,785
341,330
40,664
381,995
345,085
40,342
385,427
(Thousand Metric Tons)
351,346 357,259
362,464
39,608
39,233
39,021
390,953 396,492
401,485
367,508
38,652
406,160
372,035
38,924
410,959
376,889
38,803
415,692
379,799
39,157
418,957
139,868
141,084
43,778
324,731
133,965
152,159
40,664
326,789
135,417
154,444
40,342
330,203
135,987
156,468
39,608
332,063
136,584
160,118
39,233
335,935
136,924
165,182
39,021
341,127
137,289
168,982
38,652
344,924
138,377
171,455
38,924
348,755
138,755
174,211
38,803
351,769
139,681
176,205
39,157
355,043
140,330
176,998
39,809
357,138
51,826
50,996
51,791
53,364
55,019
55,365
56,561
57,406
59,190
60,649
61,819
2,234
2,518
2,457
2,394
(Thousand Hectares)
2,368
2,346
2,324
2,303
2,289
2,278
2,248
4.35
4.03
4.04
4.04
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
4.05
4.06
4.07
4.08
4.09
4.09
4.10
9,728
1,390
11,118
10,138
1,390
11,528
9,922
1,461
11,383
9,674
1,466
11,140
(Thousand Metric Tons)
9,586
9,516
9,454
1,431
1,414
1,406
11,018
10,929
10,860
9,400
1,392
10,792
9,360
1,397
10,757
9,327
1,397
10,724
9,211
1,404
10,615
3,783
2,388
1,390
7,560
3,992
2,570
1,461
8,023
3,970
2,703
1,466
8,139
3,770
2,766
1,431
7,968
3,600
2,819
1,414
7,832
3,469
2,907
1,406
7,783
3,312
2,976
1,392
7,680
3,136
3,017
1,397
7,550
2,976
3,050
1,397
7,424
2,781
3,060
1,404
7,245
2,809
3,093
1,441
7,344
3,558
3,505
3,245
3,173
3,185
3,147
3,180
3,242
3,333
3,479
3,272
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 193
U.S. Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization (continued)
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1,260
1,291
1,203
1,211
(Thousand Hectares)
1,204
1,189
1,170
1,148
1,128
1,109
1,089
3.93
3.62
3.66
3.69
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.72
3.75
3.79
3.82
3.85
3.89
3.92
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
4,949
1,932
6,881
4,673
2,478
7,151
4,399
2,175
6,574
4,468
1,940
6,408
(Thousand Metric Tons)
4,482
4,463
4,429
1,912
1,911
1,915
6,393
6,374
6,344
4,385
1,916
6,300
4,348
1,926
6,274
4,313
1,932
6,245
4,273
1,941
6,214
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,125
3,713
2,478
7,316
1,120
3,763
2,175
7,058
919
3,760
1,940
6,619
881
3,751
1,912
6,543
863
3,762
1,911
6,537
840
3,761
1,915
6,516
804
3,752
1,916
6,472
756
3,757
1,926
6,439
712
3,766
1,932
6,410
672
3,773
1,941
6,386
633
3,778
1,960
6,371
-435
93
-45
-135
-143
-141
-127
-138
-135
-140
-157
Barley
Area Harvested
Yield Actual
Net Trade
14/15
194 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Algerian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Yield
1.00
1.01
1.01
1.02
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.03
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1
313
314
1
314
315
1
314
315
1
316
317
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1
1
1
318
321
322
319
322
323
1
323
324
1
324
326
1
325
326
1
326
327
2,100
0
314
2,414
2,082
0
314
2,395
2,103
0
316
2,419
2,109
0
318
2,427
2,120
0
321
2,440
2,127
0
322
2,450
2,134
0
323
2,458
2,140
0
324
2,465
2,143
0
325
2,468
2,148
0
326
2,474
2,158
0
327
2,485
-2,100
-2,080
-2,104
-2,111
-2,121
-2,128
-2,134
-2,140
-2,143
-2,148
-2,158
1,100
817
765
770
761
762
761
762
763
1.82
1.10
1.11
1.12
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.14
1.15
1.16
1.17
1.18
1.19
1.20
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,000
234
2,234
901
884
1,785
852
683
1,535
865
572
1,437
(Thousand Metric Tons)
865
872
881
540
541
549
1,404
1,413
1,430
890
571
1,461
897
617
1,514
907
576
1,483
916
574
1,490
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,200
150
884
2,234
938
152
683
1,774
904
154
572
1,630
922
159
540
1,621
925
162
541
1,628
925
165
549
1,639
923
167
571
1,661
925
170
617
1,711
926
172
576
1,675
924
175
574
1,673
919
176
570
1,665
0
11
-96
-183
-224
-226
-232
-250
-161
-190
-176
Corn
Area Harvested
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Barley
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
(Thousand Hectares)
1
1
(Thousand Hectares)
762
760
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 195
Argentine Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
Corn
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Sorghum
Area Harvested
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
2,000
2,452
2,608
2,688
(Thousand Hectares)
2,726
2,800
2,803
2,819
2,824
2,839
2,852
7.50
7.20
7.30
7.39
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
7.47
7.56
7.66
7.76
7.83
7.89
7.97
(Thousand Metric Tons)
20,371
21,171
21,465
1,783
1,797
1,807
22,154
22,968
23,272
21,885
1,815
23,700
22,098
1,831
23,929
22,402
1,839
24,241
22,723
1,845
24,568
15,000
410
15,410
17,656
1,535
19,191
19,026
1,727
20,753
19,865
1,764
21,629
4,000
1,900
1,535
7,435
4,319
1,958
1,727
8,003
4,433
1,985
1,764
8,182
4,690
2,018
1,783
8,491
4,557
2,049
1,797
8,403
4,658
2,075
1,807
8,540
4,603
2,102
1,815
8,520
4,733
2,138
1,831
8,702
4,888
2,162
1,839
8,888
5,063
2,187
1,845
9,095
5,279
2,215
1,856
9,350
7,975
11,188
12,572
13,137
13,751
14,428
14,752
14,998
15,041
15,146
15,217
700
627
637
639
(Thousand Hectares)
638
638
637
636
637
638
634
5.00
5.04
5.07
5.15
4.71
4.73
4.76
4.80
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
4.82
4.89
4.95
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
3,300
105
3,405
2,966
705
3,671
3,033
841
3,874
3,068
875
3,943
(Thousand Metric Tons)
3,079
3,119
3,152
887
894
899
3,966
4,013
4,050
3,179
902
4,081
3,212
906
4,118
3,235
908
4,144
3,267
909
4,176
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,500
200
705
2,405
2,104
201
841
3,145
2,069
202
875
3,146
2,075
204
887
3,166
2,051
205
894
3,150
2,055
206
899
3,159
2,064
206
902
3,172
2,083
207
906
3,196
2,102
207
908
3,217
2,126
207
909
3,242
2,150
207
914
3,271
1,000
526
727
777
817
854
879
885
901
901
906
Barley
Area Harvested
500
469
468
475
468
470
469
470
470
Yield
3.20
3.25
3.29
3.34
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.39
3.44
3.48
3.53
3.58
3.62
3.67
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,587
1,606
1,631
145
147
148
1,732
1,753
1,778
1,658
147
1,805
1,678
149
1,826
1,703
149
1,852
1,727
150
1,877
Yield
Net Trade
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
(Thousand Hectares)
468
468
1,600
142
1,742
1,523
142
1,665
1,541
144
1,685
1,586
141
1,727
250
450
142
842
238
462
144
844
231
457
141
829
232
472
145
848
233
478
147
858
235
482
148
864
237
484
147
869
241
490
149
880
246
494
149
889
252
497
150
898
257
496
149
901
900
821
856
879
874
889
910
925
937
954
976
196 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Australian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
65
65
67
66
66
66
66
66
66
Yield
5.38
5.48
5.57
5.65
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
5.68
5.73
5.81
5.89
5.96
6.01
6.06
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
350
31
381
357
46
403
371
38
410
375
37
412
(Thousand Metric Tons)
378
381
386
36
36
36
414
418
423
391
36
427
395
36
431
398
37
435
401
37
437
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
200
125
46
371
234
125
38
397
248
127
37
411
257
129
36
423
267
131
36
434
273
133
36
442
279
135
36
450
285
137
36
459
290
139
37
466
294
142
37
473
298
144
37
479
10
6
-2
-10
-20
-25
-28
-31
-35
-38
-41
Sorghum
Area Harvested
630
733
748
748
761
763
763
766
768
Yield
2.94
2.96
3.02
3.11
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.21
3.28
3.27
3.25
3.28
3.30
3.34
1,850
139
1,989
2,172
84
2,256
2,255
94
2,349
2,326
98
2,423
(Thousand Metric Tons)
2,411
2,485
2,487
99
100
101
2,511
2,585
2,588
2,478
101
2,579
2,505
102
2,607
2,529
103
2,632
2,565
103
2,668
900
5
84
989
1,482
5
94
1,581
1,561
5
98
1,664
1,587
5
99
1,691
1,619
5
100
1,724
1,655
5
101
1,761
1,690
5
101
1,797
1,724
5
102
1,831
1,752
5
103
1,859
1,774
5
103
1,882
1,800
5
104
1,909
1,000
676
685
732
786
825
791
748
748
750
759
4,500
4,378
4,459
4,487
(Thousand Hectares)
4,459
4,466
4,466
4,474
4,475
4,479
4,480
1.84
1.64
1.66
1.68
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.69
1.71
1.73
1.74
1.76
1.78
1.80
8,300
2,597
10,897
7,190
2,797
9,987
7,398
2,856
10,254
7,522
2,953
10,475
(Thousand Metric Tons)
7,550
7,639
7,714
2,870
2,882
2,888
10,420
10,521
10,602
7,804
2,890
10,694
7,882
2,897
10,779
7,966
2,903
10,870
8,044
2,909
10,953
3,200
1,100
2,797
7,097
3,288
1,114
2,856
7,257
3,351
1,121
2,953
7,426
3,411
1,140
2,870
7,421
3,490
1,157
2,882
7,529
3,568
1,171
2,888
7,627
3,642
1,182
2,890
7,714
3,714
1,195
2,897
7,806
3,775
1,208
2,903
7,887
3,826
1,222
2,909
7,956
3,850
1,230
2,910
7,990
3,800
2,729
2,828
3,055
2,890
2,894
2,888
2,889
2,892
2,914
2,963
Corn
Area Harvested
Net Trade
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Barley
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
(Thousand Hectares)
67
67
(Thousand Hectares)
752
757
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 197
Brazilian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
13,182
13,369
13,732
13,930
(Thousand Hectares)
14,035
14,123
14,200
14,238
14,227
14,274
14,273
3.83
3.80
3.87
3.90
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.94
4.00
4.06
4.12
4.17
4.24
4.30
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
50,488
10,613
61,101
50,823
6,851
57,674
53,186
6,643
59,829
54,284
6,621
60,905
(Thousand Metric Tons)
55,353
56,506
57,694
6,613
6,606
6,601
61,966
63,112
64,295
58,698
6,596
65,294
59,270
6,599
65,868
60,564
6,597
67,161
61,410
6,600
68,010
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
37,473
9,027
6,851
53,351
38,612
9,162
6,643
54,416
39,634
9,312
6,621
55,567
40,442
9,463
6,613
56,518
41,344
9,617
6,606
57,567
42,180
9,769
6,601
58,550
42,972
9,923
6,596
59,491
43,876
10,094
6,599
60,569
44,647
10,258
6,597
61,502
45,674
10,432
6,600
62,705
46,728
10,623
6,608
63,959
7,750
3,258
4,262
4,388
4,400
4,562
4,804
4,725
4,367
4,456
4,051
78
78
76
76
78
78
79
79
80
Yield
2.60
2.65
2.70
2.75
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.80
2.85
2.89
2.94
2.99
3.04
3.09
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
202
0
202
207
0
207
206
0
206
210
0
210
(Thousand Metric Tons)
214
219
225
0
0
0
214
219
225
231
0
231
236
0
236
241
0
241
247
0
247
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
0
452
0
452
0
651
0
651
0
642
0
642
0
666
0
666
0
680
0
680
0
689
0
689
0
694
0
694
0
707
0
707
0
717
0
717
0
729
0
729
0
732
0
732
-250
-444
-436
-457
-466
-470
-469
-476
-481
-488
-485
Corn
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Barley
Area Harvested
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
(Thousand Hectares)
76
77
198 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Canadian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1,400
1,222
1,251
1,268
(Thousand Hectares)
1,270
1,296
1,301
1,312
1,314
1,310
1,322
6.83
8.65
8.74
8.76
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
8.75
8.75
8.76
8.83
8.93
9.01
9.08
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
9,560
1,857
11,417
10,580
1,317
11,897
10,932
1,438
12,371
11,100
1,466
12,566
(Thousand Metric Tons)
11,109
11,346
11,392
1,481
1,486
1,484
12,590
12,832
12,876
11,582
1,475
13,057
11,731
1,479
13,209
11,800
1,486
13,286
12,001
1,494
13,495
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
7,500
4,300
1,317
13,117
7,312
4,538
1,438
13,289
7,366
4,700
1,466
13,532
7,455
4,805
1,481
13,741
7,532
4,922
1,486
13,940
7,601
5,035
1,484
14,119
7,592
5,151
1,475
14,218
7,630
5,300
1,479
14,409
7,629
5,480
1,486
14,595
7,706
5,664
1,494
14,864
7,845
5,855
1,505
15,205
-1,700
-1,392
-1,162
-1,174
-1,351
-1,287
-1,342
-1,352
-1,385
-1,578
-1,711
2,920
3,105
3,252
3,448
(Thousand Hectares)
3,490
3,525
3,519
3,569
3,579
3,583
3,596
3.26
3.20
3.24
3.27
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.30
3.33
3.36
3.37
3.38
3.39
3.40
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
9,520
2,843
12,363
9,946
2,463
12,409
10,519
2,321
12,840
11,260
2,266
13,526
(Thousand Metric Tons)
11,506
11,733
11,821
2,317
2,349
2,342
13,822
14,082
14,164
12,027
2,312
14,339
12,101
2,325
14,426
12,153
2,339
14,492
12,239
2,351
14,590
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
7,100
1,350
2,463
10,913
6,943
1,441
2,321
10,705
7,105
1,434
2,266
10,805
7,172
1,480
2,317
10,968
7,240
1,496
2,349
11,085
7,245
1,504
2,342
11,091
7,254
1,504
2,312
11,070
7,297
1,520
2,325
11,142
7,289
1,535
2,339
11,163
7,308
1,548
2,351
11,207
7,344
1,549
2,346
11,240
1,450
1,704
2,035
2,559
2,738
2,991
3,094
3,197
3,263
3,285
3,350
Corn
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Barley
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
14/15
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 199
Chinese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
30,000
29,069
29,245
29,525
(Thousand Hectares)
29,665
29,806
29,965
30,054
30,121
30,210
30,372
5.17
5.47
5.58
5.67
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
5.74
5.84
5.90
5.99
6.10
6.16
6.19
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
155,000
53,169
208,169
159,100
48,719
207,819
163,171
47,773
210,944
167,535
48,056
215,591
(Thousand Metric Tons)
170,391 174,065
176,655
48,375
48,329
48,627
218,766 222,394
225,282
180,138
48,508
228,646
183,757
48,466
232,223
185,980
48,854
234,834
188,056
49,723
237,779
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
116,000
43,000
48,719
207,719
113,761
45,961
47,773
207,496
117,206
46,356
48,056
211,618
120,657
47,665
48,375
216,697
123,527
48,619
48,329
220,475
126,472
49,327
48,627
224,427
128,885
50,013
48,508
227,406
131,599
50,749
48,466
230,813
134,247
51,713
48,854
234,813
135,627
52,536
49,723
237,886
137,984
53,392
49,823
241,199
450
323
-674
-1,106
-1,708
-2,033
-2,124
-2,167
-2,591
-3,052
-3,420
Barley
Area Harvested
800
833
842
857
853
857
859
861
864
Yield
3.88
3.93
3.99
4.05
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
4.11
4.17
4.22
4.28
4.34
4.40
4.46
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
3,100
430
3,530
3,277
510
3,787
3,363
523
3,886
3,470
523
3,993
(Thousand Metric Tons)
3,473
3,535
3,602
535
542
547
4,008
4,077
4,149
3,672
550
4,222
3,727
554
4,281
3,790
557
4,347
3,853
560
4,413
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
300
4,200
510
5,010
236
4,425
523
5,185
224
4,581
523
5,329
263
4,909
535
5,707
244
5,057
542
5,842
236
5,268
547
6,051
216
5,469
550
6,235
215
5,574
554
6,343
198
5,685
557
6,440
193
5,768
560
6,521
179
5,864
562
6,605
-1,480
-1,398
-1,443
-1,714
-1,834
-1,974
-2,086
-2,121
-2,159
-2,174
-2,192
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Corn
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
(Thousand Hectares)
846
849
Egyptian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
Corn
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
735
731
731
730
8.57
8.71
8.74
13/14
(Thousand Hectares)
726
723
722
716
717
717
720
8.77
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
8.86
8.94
8.93
8.91
8.85
8.93
9.01
(Thousand Metric Tons)
6,430
6,469
6,444
742
746
749
7,173
7,215
7,194
6,377
751
7,128
6,339
754
7,093
6,402
756
7,158
6,490
758
7,249
6,300
1,262
7,562
6,368
862
7,230
6,392
728
7,120
6,408
738
7,146
8,600
2,300
862
11,762
8,414
2,186
728
11,328
8,796
2,182
738
11,715
9,166
2,153
742
12,062
9,453
2,164
746
12,363
9,689
2,168
749
12,606
9,996
2,170
751
12,917
10,145
2,178
754
13,077
10,431
2,174
756
13,361
10,745
2,176
758
13,679
10,905
2,180
763
13,847
-4,200
-4,099
-4,595
-4,916
-5,190
-5,391
-5,723
-5,949
-6,268
-6,521
-6,599
200 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
European Union Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
8,519
8,493
8,484
8,577
(Thousand Hectares)
8,706
8,807
8,844
8,874
8,906
8,924
8,963
6.59
6.71
6.83
6.86
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
6.93
6.99
7.05
7.08
7.10
7.11
7.13
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
56,126
6,113
62,239
56,951
3,239
60,190
57,973
3,449
61,421
58,853
3,421
62,275
(Thousand Metric Tons)
60,309
61,520
62,392
3,460
3,503
3,560
63,769
65,023
65,952
62,848
3,597
66,446
63,243
3,616
66,859
63,459
3,634
67,093
63,875
3,679
67,554
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
45,000
15,000
3,239
63,239
43,470
14,100
3,449
61,019
44,892
14,114
3,421
62,428
45,377
14,500
3,460
63,337
46,215
15,057
3,503
64,775
47,226
15,220
3,560
66,005
48,195
15,305
3,597
67,097
48,639
15,385
3,616
67,640
49,024
15,428
3,634
68,086
49,186
15,439
3,679
68,304
49,590
15,394
3,744
68,728
-1,000
-829
-1,006
-1,062
-1,006
-982
-1,145
-1,194
-1,227
-1,211
-1,173
14,058
13,097
12,879
13,010
(Thousand Hectares)
13,092
13,186
13,253
13,232
13,271
13,310
13,382
4.41
4.43
4.44
4.46
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
4.48
4.50
4.52
4.53
4.55
4.57
4.59
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
61,965
10,366
72,331
57,965
11,481
69,446
57,237
9,758
66,995
58,053
7,363
65,417
(Thousand Metric Tons)
58,656
59,312
59,850
5,432
4,923
4,910
64,088
64,235
64,760
59,997
4,995
64,991
60,411
5,070
65,480
60,826
5,088
65,914
61,398
5,127
66,525
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
43,000
16,000
11,481
70,481
40,273
16,880
9,758
66,912
40,133
17,143
7,363
64,639
40,216
17,726
5,432
63,375
39,459
17,508
4,923
61,890
39,717
17,532
4,910
62,159
39,984
17,616
4,995
62,595
40,078
17,692
5,070
62,839
40,491
17,787
5,088
63,366
40,720
17,963
5,127
63,810
40,401
18,971
5,094
64,467
1,850
2,533
2,357
2,042
2,198
2,076
2,165
2,152
2,114
2,104
2,058
Corn
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Barley
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
14/15
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 201
Indian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
8,400
8,337
8,437
8,396
(Thousand Hectares)
8,354
8,315
8,272
8,311
8,357
8,407
8,449
2.20
2.21
2.22
2.24
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.24
2.24
2.25
2.28
2.28
2.29
2.32
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
18,500
946
19,446
18,435
951
19,386
18,770
971
19,742
18,825
992
19,817
(Thousand Metric Tons)
18,737
18,623
18,653
1,009
1,021
1,032
19,746
19,644
19,685
18,908
1,042
19,950
19,068
1,055
20,123
19,233
1,067
20,299
19,588
1,079
20,666
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
7,500
10,000
951
18,451
7,910
9,832
971
18,713
8,106
10,027
992
19,125
8,262
10,155
1,009
19,427
8,385
10,274
1,021
19,680
8,507
10,404
1,032
19,944
8,636
10,509
1,042
20,186
8,806
10,641
1,055
20,503
8,963
10,764
1,067
20,794
9,137
10,892
1,079
21,108
9,322
11,027
1,093
21,442
995
672
617
391
66
-300
-501
-553
-671
-808
-775
7,800
8,075
8,444
8,520
(Thousand Hectares)
8,562
8,547
8,551
8,568
8,566
8,583
8,614
0.93
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
0.93
0.94
0.95
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.98
8,229
194
8,423
8,320
196
8,516
8,387
198
8,584
8,409
199
8,608
Corn
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Sorghum
Area Harvested
Yield
0.77
0.91
0.92
14/15
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
6,000
247
6,247
7,343
122
7,465
7,737
171
7,908
7,890
185
8,075
(Thousand Metric Tons)
7,949
8,039
8,146
189
191
193
8,138
8,231
8,339
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,500
4,600
122
6,222
1,421
5,839
171
7,431
1,441
6,283
185
7,909
1,462
6,374
189
8,025
1,480
6,442
191
8,113
1,498
6,483
193
8,173
1,516
6,590
194
8,301
1,537
6,650
196
8,383
1,560
6,709
198
8,467
1,583
6,792
199
8,574
1,607
6,816
202
8,624
25
34
0
49
25
57
39
40
49
11
-16
14/15
Net Trade
Indonesian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
Corn
Area Harvested
Yield
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
3,250
3,266
3,271
3,311
(Thousand Hectares)
3,375
3,393
3,397
3,449
3,443
3,454
3,471
2.45
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.45
2.47
2.49
2.49
2.51
2.51
2.54
(Thousand Metric Tons)
8,286
8,375
8,443
1,046
1,050
1,057
9,332
9,425
9,500
8,585
1,063
9,647
8,627
1,072
9,699
8,657
1,080
9,736
8,814
1,088
9,901
2.77
2.39
2.41
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
9,000
1,318
10,318
7,808
1,218
9,026
7,897
1,066
8,964
8,099
1,043
9,143
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
4,500
4,600
1,218
10,318
4,310
4,323
1,066
9,699
4,422
4,331
1,043
9,797
4,518
4,346
1,046
9,910
4,590
4,368
1,050
10,008
4,657
4,388
1,057
10,102
4,727
4,414
1,063
10,204
4,808
4,487
1,072
10,367
4,881
4,485
1,080
10,446
4,940
4,516
1,088
10,544
5,022
4,560
1,098
10,680
0
-673
-833
-767
-676
-676
-705
-720
-747
-807
-778
Net Trade
202 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Israeli Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
Corn
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Sorghum
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Barley
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
0
87
87
0
87
87
0
84
84
0
86
86
900
100
87
1,087
1,058
99
84
1,241
1,068
103
86
1,257
1,069
105
89
1,262
1,071
107
90
1,268
-1,000
-1,154
-1,173
-1,176
0
2
2
0
2
2
0
2
2
70
5
2
77
70
5
2
77
-75
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
0
90
90
0
90
90
0
91
91
0
91
91
0
92
92
1,072
108
90
1,270
1,073
110
90
1,273
1,076
112
91
1,280
1,078
114
91
1,284
1,082
116
92
1,290
1,087
119
94
1,300
-1,179
-1,180
-1,183
-1,190
-1,193
-1,199
-1,208
0
2
2
0
2
2
0
2
2
0
2
2
0
2
2
0
2
2
0
2
2
0
2
2
68
5
2
75
67
5
2
75
66
5
2
73
66
5
2
73
65
5
2
72
63
5
2
71
62
5
2
70
61
5
2
68
61
5
3
69
-75
-73
-73
-71
-71
-69
-68
-67
-66
-67
0
60
60
0
50
50
0
50
50
0
49
49
0
52
52
0
53
53
0
53
53
0
52
52
0
52
52
0
53
53
0
53
53
325
10
50
385
331
10
50
392
321
10
49
381
332
11
52
395
333
11
53
396
333
11
53
396
330
11
52
394
331
11
52
395
331
11
53
395
331
12
53
395
326
12
52
390
-325
-342
-330
-346
-344
-343
-341
-343
-343
-343
-338
(Thousand Metric Tons)
0
0
89
90
89
90
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 203
Japanese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1
1,298
1,299
1
1,299
1,300
1
1,299
1,300
1
1,291
1,292
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1
1
1
1,301
1,307
1,303
1,302
1,308
1,304
1
1,302
1,303
1
1,316
1,317
1
1,314
1,315
1
1,334
1,335
11,700
4,600
1,299
17,599
11,986
4,651
1,299
17,936
12,812
4,635
1,291
18,737
13,224
4,621
1,301
19,146
13,437
4,609
1,307
19,354
13,548
4,579
1,303
19,430
13,514
4,556
1,302
19,372
13,450
4,543
1,316
19,308
13,586
4,523
1,314
19,423
13,585
4,513
1,334
19,432
13,665
4,511
1,355
19,532
-16,300
-16,636
-17,437
-17,854
-18,052
-18,123
-18,068
-18,005
-18,107
-18,117
-18,197
0
118
118
0
118
118
0
119
119
0
119
119
0
120
120
0
120
120
0
120
120
0
119
119
0
120
120
0
120
120
0
121
121
1,500
0
118
1,618
1,480
0
119
1,599
1,573
0
119
1,692
1,631
0
120
1,751
1,657
0
120
1,777
1,661
0
120
1,781
1,651
0
119
1,770
1,641
0
120
1,761
1,635
0
120
1,755
1,634
0
121
1,755
1,652
0
123
1,775
-1,500
-1,481
-1,573
-1,632
-1,657
-1,661
-1,651
-1,642
-1,635
-1,635
-1,654
55
49
48
50
48
49
49
49
49
Yield
3.45
3.48
3.50
3.52
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.54
3.56
3.58
3.60
3.62
3.64
3.66
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
190
399
589
169
439
608
168
460
628
176
441
617
(Thousand Metric Tons)
171
171
173
459
464
462
630
635
635
176
457
634
177
462
639
179
464
643
180
467
646
1,250
300
439
1,989
1,234
299
460
1,992
1,281
295
441
2,016
1,346
299
459
2,105
1,370
299
464
2,132
1,375
298
462
2,134
1,364
296
457
2,117
1,355
296
462
2,113
1,350
295
464
2,109
1,349
294
467
2,109
1,339
291
464
2,095
-1,400
-1,385
-1,388
-1,488
-1,502
-1,500
-1,482
-1,479
-1,470
-1,467
-1,448
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
29
29
29
28
28
Corn
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Sorghum
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Barley
Area Harvested
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
14/15
(Thousand Hectares)
48
48
Malaysian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
28
29
30
30
Yield
3.57
3.57
3.55
3.55
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.53
3.52
3.49
3.48
3.49
3.50
3.52
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
100
283
383
103
273
376
106
275
380
106
280
386
(Thousand Metric Tons)
105
104
102
285
290
294
390
394
397
101
298
399
100
303
403
99
308
406
98
312
410
2,500
200
273
2,973
2,444
200
275
2,918
2,459
204
280
2,942
2,463
209
285
2,957
2,473
213
290
2,975
2,481
217
294
2,993
2,491
221
298
3,011
2,506
226
303
3,035
2,515
231
308
3,054
2,528
236
312
3,076
2,545
241
318
3,105
-2,590
-2,543
-2,562
-2,571
-2,585
-2,599
-2,614
-2,636
-2,651
-2,670
-2,695
Corn
Area Harvested
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
13/14
(Thousand Hectares)
30
30
204 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Mexican Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
Corn
Area Harvested
Yield
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
6,300
6,879
6,916
6,935
(Thousand Hectares)
6,951
6,993
7,007
7,012
6,991
7,031
7,041
3.29
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.29
3.30
3.33
3.34
3.36
3.38
3.40
23,386
3,305
26,691
23,474
3,339
26,814
23,735
3,365
27,100
23,929
3,395
27,325
3.49
3.31
3.30
14/15
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
22,000
3,559
25,559
22,791
2,809
25,600
22,825
3,227
26,053
22,833
3,426
26,259
(Thousand Metric Tons)
22,869
23,094
23,308
3,307
3,298
3,299
26,176
26,392
26,607
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
16,000
16,200
2,809
35,009
14,800
17,063
3,227
35,090
14,866
17,332
3,426
35,624
14,942
17,760
3,307
36,009
15,022
17,647
3,298
35,966
15,132
18,040
3,299
36,472
15,279
18,153
3,305
36,737
15,432
18,413
3,339
37,185
15,597
18,560
3,365
37,523
15,777
18,760
3,395
37,932
15,933
18,945
3,438
38,316
-9,450
-9,490
-9,571
-9,750
-9,790
-10,080
-10,130
-10,494
-10,709
-10,833
-10,991
1,800
1,791
1,833
1,826
(Thousand Hectares)
1,830
1,833
1,838
1,844
1,842
1,850
1,848
3.71
3.73
3.74
3.78
Net Trade
Sorghum
Area Harvested
3.56
3.58
3.61
3.64
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.65
3.66
3.69
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
6,400
569
6,969
6,416
469
6,885
6,612
585
7,196
6,637
607
7,244
(Thousand Metric Tons)
6,676
6,717
6,777
613
614
614
7,289
7,331
7,392
6,842
615
7,457
6,863
627
7,490
6,919
636
7,556
6,975
647
7,622
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
9,000
100
469
9,569
8,853
102
585
9,539
8,959
104
607
9,670
8,933
105
613
9,651
8,944
106
614
9,665
8,978
107
614
9,699
9,030
108
615
9,753
9,102
110
627
9,839
9,182
111
636
9,930
9,268
113
647
10,027
9,037
115
672
9,824
-2,600
-2,654
-2,473
-2,407
-2,375
-2,368
-2,362
-2,382
-2,441
-2,472
-2,202
Barley
Area Harvested
310
277
341
321
334
336
335
335
335
Yield
2.52
2.56
2.60
2.64
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.68
2.72
2.76
2.80
2.85
2.89
2.93
943
163
1,106
955
164
1,119
968
166
1,134
981
168
1,149
Yield
Net Trade
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
(Thousand Hectares)
330
332
781
105
886
710
136
846
887
153
1,040
847
155
1,002
(Thousand Metric Tons)
885
904
923
160
162
163
1,045
1,066
1,086
150
750
136
1,036
153
782
153
1,088
150
779
155
1,083
154
804
160
1,118
155
818
162
1,135
156
828
163
1,147
157
836
163
1,155
158
852
164
1,175
160
867
166
1,193
162
881
168
1,212
163
891
169
1,222
-150
-242
-44
-116
-90
-81
-70
-69
-74
-77
-73
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 205
Nigerian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
Sorghum
Area Harvested
Yield
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
7,500
8,492
8,710
8,544
(Thousand Hectares)
8,343
8,073
8,045
8,119
8,094
8,027
8,019
1.66
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.65
1.65
1.66
1.66
1.64
1.62
1.66
13,504
271
13,775
13,311
275
13,587
13,023
278
13,300
13,297
277
13,574
1.53
1.58
1.63
14/15
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
11,500
200
11,700
13,401
200
13,601
14,180
209
14,389
14,179
234
14,413
(Thousand Metric Tons)
13,791
13,308
13,333
255
269
272
14,046
13,577
13,605
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
150
11,300
200
11,650
154
13,188
209
13,551
164
13,941
234
14,339
173
13,935
255
14,363
179
13,548
269
13,996
180
13,075
272
13,527
180
13,105
271
13,555
181
13,268
275
13,725
182
13,077
278
13,537
181
12,793
277
13,250
183
13,061
280
13,524
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Net Trade
Other African Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
Corn
Area Harvested
Yield
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
24,316
23,597
23,800
23,811
(Thousand Hectares)
23,836
23,961
24,078
24,327
24,572
24,732
24,887
1.46
1.47
1.49
1.50
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.51
1.53
1.56
1.58
1.59
1.60
1.63
38,443
2,492
40,935
39,004
2,507
41,511
39,589
2,517
42,107
40,623
2,529
43,152
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
35,586
2,467
38,053
34,775
3,117
37,892
35,364
2,430
37,794
35,705
2,395
38,100
(Thousand Metric Tons)
36,104
36,715
37,459
2,458
2,570
2,482
38,562
39,284
39,941
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
5,330
34,261
3,117
42,708
5,038
34,352
2,430
41,820
5,077
34,987
2,395
42,459
5,067
35,982
2,458
43,508
5,078
36,788
2,570
44,435
5,090
37,569
2,482
45,141
5,105
38,397
2,492
45,994
5,118
39,247
2,507
46,872
5,129
40,059
2,517
47,705
5,141
40,907
2,529
48,577
5,164
41,976
2,544
49,684
-4,655
-3,928
-4,665
-5,407
-5,873
-5,857
-6,053
-5,936
-6,194
-6,471
-6,532
4,190
3,943
3,930
3,952
(Thousand Hectares)
3,923
3,919
3,915
3,916
3,909
3,907
3,905
1.10
1.11
1.11
1.12
Net Trade
Barley
Area Harvested
1.38
1.05
1.05
1.06
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.07
1.08
1.09
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
5,770
389
6,159
4,125
1,324
5,449
4,145
1,046
5,191
4,202
1,012
5,214
(Thousand Metric Tons)
4,205
4,233
4,263
1,028
1,035
1,042
5,233
5,269
5,305
4,297
1,045
5,342
4,323
1,053
5,376
4,354
1,058
5,413
4,385
1,064
5,449
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,920
2,545
1,324
6,789
2,765
2,650
1,046
6,461
2,709
2,678
1,012
6,400
2,673
2,786
1,028
6,486
2,624
2,857
1,035
6,517
2,622
2,928
1,042
6,591
2,727
2,992
1,045
6,764
2,695
3,065
1,053
6,812
2,683
3,137
1,058
6,878
2,676
3,209
1,064
6,949
2,672
3,266
1,067
7,005
-630
-1,012
-1,209
-1,272
-1,284
-1,323
-1,459
-1,470
-1,503
-1,537
-1,556
Yield
Net Trade
206 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Other Asian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
2,035
2,017
2,064
2,053
(Thousand Hectares)
2,057
2,055
2,056
2,053
2,050
2,050
2,047
2.52
2.53
2.54
2.56
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.55
2.55
2.56
2.57
2.57
2.56
2.58
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
5,120
61
5,181
5,098
61
5,159
5,249
61
5,310
5,249
61
5,310
(Thousand Metric Tons)
5,248
5,242
5,257
61
61
61
5,309
5,303
5,318
5,275
61
5,336
5,262
61
5,323
5,243
61
5,304
5,284
61
5,345
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,175
3,895
61
5,131
1,173
3,882
61
5,116
1,174
3,945
61
5,180
1,174
3,974
61
5,209
1,174
4,016
61
5,251
1,174
4,053
61
5,288
1,175
4,097
61
5,333
1,176
4,148
61
5,385
1,176
4,192
61
5,428
1,177
4,241
61
5,479
1,177
4,297
61
5,535
50
43
129
100
59
15
-15
-49
-105
-175
-190
1,088
1,079
1,086
1,113
(Thousand Hectares)
1,085
1,087
1,090
1,097
1,094
1,096
1,098
1.93
1.95
1.97
1.98
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.00
2.02
2.03
2.05
2.07
2.08
2.10
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,102
61
2,163
2,102
111
2,213
2,134
111
2,246
2,207
111
2,318
(Thousand Metric Tons)
2,171
2,192
2,218
112
112
112
2,282
2,303
2,330
2,250
112
2,361
2,262
112
2,374
2,285
112
2,397
2,308
113
2,420
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
180
1,972
111
2,263
181
2,007
111
2,299
178
1,998
111
2,287
181
2,062
112
2,354
181
2,090
112
2,383
181
2,112
112
2,405
180
2,131
112
2,423
180
2,160
112
2,453
180
2,184
112
2,477
180
2,209
113
2,502
179
2,217
113
2,508
-100
-86
-41
-36
-101
-102
-93
-91
-103
-104
-88
Corn
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Barley
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
14/15
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 207
Other Eastern European Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Corn
Area Harvested
575
593
605
602
Yield
5.22
5.24
5.27
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
3,000
374
3,374
3,105
299
3,404
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,925
470
299
3,694
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
598
597
594
593
590
5.30
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
5.30
5.31
5.34
5.36
5.38
5.40
5.44
3,189
287
3,476
3,189
289
3,477
(Thousand Metric Tons)
3,180
3,177
3,192
292
295
298
3,472
3,472
3,490
3,202
301
3,503
3,196
306
3,502
3,199
310
3,509
3,209
315
3,524
2,906
466
287
3,660
2,994
472
289
3,755
3,074
470
292
3,836
3,144
472
295
3,910
3,209
474
298
3,981
3,266
477
301
4,044
3,294
480
306
4,080
3,290
482
310
4,083
3,287
485
315
4,087
3,280
490
321
4,091
-320
-256
-279
-359
-438
-509
-554
-577
-580
-578
-567
Barley
Area Harvested
131
121
117
119
116
116
116
116
116
Yield
3.15
3.17
3.19
3.21
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.23
3.25
3.27
3.29
3.31
3.33
3.35
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
413
103
516
384
106
490
375
108
483
382
108
490
(Thousand Metric Tons)
377
378
380
110
111
111
487
489
491
383
112
495
384
112
496
386
113
499
388
113
501
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
315
175
106
596
322
176
108
606
324
174
108
606
338
177
110
625
347
179
111
636
354
180
111
645
358
180
112
650
361
182
112
655
360
183
113
656
358
184
113
656
354
184
114
652
-80
-115
-123
-135
-149
-156
-159
-160
-159
-157
-151
Net Trade
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
(Thousand Hectares)
600
598
(Thousand Hectares)
117
116
Countries included: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro.
208 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Other CIS Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Corn
Area Harvested
820
828
831
831
Yield
3.62
3.63
3.65
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
829
829
828
828
828
3.66
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.66
3.66
3.66
3.67
3.67
3.67
3.69
3,044
238
3,283
3,039
242
3,281
3,041
245
3,286
3,052
248
3,300
(Thousand Hectares)
830
830
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,965
382
3,347
3,011
257
3,268
3,034
229
3,263
3,042
226
3,268
(Thousand Metric Tons)
3,037
3,037
3,039
228
232
235
3,265
3,268
3,274
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,705
385
257
3,347
2,652
385
229
3,266
2,677
390
226
3,293
2,706
393
228
3,327
2,747
396
232
3,375
2,789
400
235
3,424
2,832
403
238
3,473
2,877
407
242
3,526
2,922
410
245
3,576
2,969
413
248
3,630
3,021
417
251
3,689
0
2
-30
-59
-110
-155
-199
-243
-295
-344
-389
3,220
3,243
3,237
3,251
(Thousand Hectares)
3,233
3,232
3,232
3,234
3,232
3,232
3,232
1.85
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.86
1.87
1.89
1.90
1.91
1.93
1.94
6,146
958
7,104
6,186
961
7,147
6,231
963
7,195
6,276
966
7,242
Net Trade
Barley
Area Harvested
Yield
1.80
1.82
1.83
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
5,810
666
6,476
5,895
905
6,800
5,929
939
6,869
6,000
942
6,942
(Thousand Metric Tons)
6,011
6,054
6,098
950
954
957
6,961
7,007
7,054
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
3,769
1,211
905
5,885
3,777
1,228
939
5,944
3,760
1,234
942
5,935
3,804
1,245
950
5,999
3,833
1,253
954
6,040
3,862
1,261
957
6,080
3,882
1,268
958
6,109
3,912
1,276
961
6,150
3,939
1,283
963
6,185
3,966
1,290
966
6,222
3,987
1,296
966
6,249
591
856
934
943
921
927
946
955
961
973
992
Net Trade
Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 209
Other Latin American Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
5,209
5,603
5,361
5,384
(Thousand Hectares)
5,391
5,467
5,449
5,425
5,408
5,382
5,358
2.59
2.61
2.63
2.66
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.67
2.68
2.69
2.72
2.75
2.77
2.82
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
13,475
3,396
16,871
14,621
3,341
17,962
14,116
3,346
17,462
14,307
3,175
17,483
(Thousand Metric Tons)
14,378
14,631
14,685
3,410
3,441
3,470
17,788
18,072
18,155
14,736
3,495
18,232
14,849
3,528
18,377
14,913
3,554
18,467
15,125
3,582
18,707
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
18,285
7,125
3,341
28,751
17,660
7,146
3,346
28,153
17,764
7,304
3,175
28,243
17,843
7,449
3,410
28,702
17,910
7,587
3,441
28,937
17,948
7,709
3,470
29,126
18,000
7,836
3,495
29,332
18,083
7,986
3,528
29,597
18,125
8,109
3,554
29,788
18,191
8,247
3,582
30,020
18,456
8,388
3,615
30,459
-11,880
-10,191
-10,781
-11,220
-11,149
-11,054
-11,177
-11,365
-11,411
-11,553
-11,752
Barley
Area Harvested
443
367
423
385
376
375
373
371
369
Yield
1.94
1.94
1.94
1.95
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.95
1.96
1.96
1.96
1.97
1.97
1.97
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
858
85
943
712
66
778
822
62
884
750
60
810
(Thousand Metric Tons)
761
740
736
62
63
64
823
804
801
737
65
802
733
66
799
731
67
797
729
67
796
125
1,152
66
1,343
128
1,057
62
1,247
127
1,051
60
1,238
129
1,085
62
1,275
129
1,107
63
1,299
130
1,126
64
1,320
130
1,143
65
1,337
130
1,165
66
1,361
130
1,185
67
1,381
130
1,205
67
1,403
130
1,220
68
1,418
-400
-469
-354
-465
-476
-517
-537
-559
-582
-605
-621
Corn
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
14/15
(Thousand Hectares)
390
379
210 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Other Middle Eastern Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Corn
Area Harvested
982
1,001
990
991
Yield
6.09
6.14
6.19
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
980
977
973
970
967
6.22
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
6.26
6.29
6.32
6.35
6.38
6.41
6.45
5,984
3,340
9,324
6,147
2,421
8,568
6,126
2,335
8,460
6,165
2,348
8,513
(Thousand Metric Tons)
6,176
6,184
6,194
2,369
2,485
2,402
8,545
8,669
8,596
6,205
2,416
8,622
6,206
2,433
8,639
6,217
2,447
8,664
6,239
2,460
8,699
12,578
1,950
2,421
16,949
12,579
1,930
2,335
16,843
12,674
1,957
2,348
16,979
12,712
1,992
2,369
17,073
12,759
2,022
2,485
17,266
12,803
2,051
2,402
17,255
12,848
2,081
2,416
17,345
12,899
2,112
2,433
17,444
12,936
2,142
2,447
17,525
12,976
2,172
2,460
17,607
13,022
2,203
2,474
17,699
-7,625
-8,275
-8,519
-8,560
-8,721
-8,586
-8,750
-8,823
-8,885
-8,944
-9,000
5,880
5,888
5,818
5,872
(Thousand Hectares)
5,799
5,790
5,784
5,789
5,779
5,775
5,772
1.64
1.65
1.65
1.66
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.67
1.68
1.69
1.69
1.70
1.71
1.72
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
9,630
1,475
11,105
9,691
1,470
11,161
9,623
1,506
11,129
9,761
1,511
11,272
(Thousand Metric Tons)
9,686
9,719
9,756
1,553
1,574
1,591
11,240
11,293
11,347
9,811
1,603
11,414
9,842
1,621
11,463
9,881
1,635
11,516
9,922
1,648
11,571
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
11,215
1,530
1,470
14,215
11,240
1,559
1,506
14,305
11,193
1,565
1,511
14,269
11,249
1,608
1,553
14,411
11,254
1,634
1,574
14,462
11,253
1,658
1,591
14,502
11,246
1,681
1,603
14,530
11,252
1,708
1,621
14,582
11,252
1,733
1,635
14,620
11,253
1,758
1,648
14,660
11,238
1,775
1,656
14,669
-3,110
-3,144
-3,140
-3,139
-3,223
-3,209
-3,183
-3,168
-3,158
-3,144
-3,099
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Barley
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
(Thousand Hectares)
987
984
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 211
Pakistani Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
Corn
Area Harvested
Yield
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1,050
1,055
1,078
1,077
(Thousand Hectares)
1,090
1,092
1,092
1,087
1,080
1,075
1,066
2.86
2.90
2.94
2.99
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.01
3.02
3.02
3.03
3.02
2.99
3.03
3,296
565
3,861
3,259
565
3,824
3,209
565
3,774
3,228
565
3,793
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
3,000
555
3,555
3,058
565
3,623
3,173
565
3,738
3,222
565
3,787
(Thousand Metric Tons)
3,275
3,299
3,302
565
565
565
3,840
3,864
3,867
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,500
1,500
565
3,565
1,582
1,487
565
3,633
1,668
1,514
565
3,748
1,699
1,533
565
3,797
1,729
1,556
565
3,850
1,729
1,579
565
3,874
1,707
1,605
565
3,877
1,673
1,633
565
3,871
1,610
1,659
565
3,834
1,531
1,688
565
3,784
1,520
1,718
565
3,803
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
Sorghum
Area Harvested
240
270
271
260
251
248
247
244
241
Yield
0.60
0.59
0.57
0.56
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
0.53
0.51
0.49
0.48
0.45
0.42
0.42
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
145
0
145
160
0
160
154
0
154
146
0
146
(Thousand Metric Tons)
138
129
123
0
0
0
138
129
123
119
0
119
111
0
111
102
0
102
101
0
101
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
75
70
0
145
98
62
0
160
89
65
0
154
81
65
0
146
72
66
0
138
62
67
0
129
56
68
0
123
50
69
0
119
42
70
0
111
31
71
0
102
27
74
0
101
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
160
148
145
149
Net Trade
Net Trade
Barley
Area Harvested
Yield
1.66
1.67
1.69
(Thousand Hectares)
260
254
(Thousand Hectares)
145
145
146
147
147
147
148
1.70
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.71
1.73
1.74
1.76
1.77
1.79
1.80
(Thousand Metric Tons)
249
251
254
0
0
0
249
251
254
258
0
258
260
0
260
263
0
263
266
0
266
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
265
0
265
248
0
248
244
0
244
252
0
252
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
0
265
0
265
0
248
0
248
0
244
0
244
0
252
0
252
0
249
0
249
0
251
0
251
0
254
0
254
0
258
0
258
0
260
0
260
0
263
0
263
0
266
0
266
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Net Trade
212 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Philippine Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
2,655
2,613
2,653
2,653
(Thousand Hectares)
2,649
2,653
2,655
2,661
2,675
2,704
2,701
2.58
2.61
2.65
2.69
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.71
2.73
2.76
2.79
2.80
2.79
2.83
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
6,850
671
7,521
6,831
521
7,352
7,028
514
7,543
7,144
518
7,663
(Thousand Metric Tons)
7,176
7,233
7,317
525
531
536
7,701
7,763
7,854
7,419
542
7,961
7,485
550
8,035
7,533
556
8,089
7,656
563
8,218
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
5,400
2,000
521
7,921
5,339
1,970
514
7,823
5,478
2,000
518
7,997
5,592
2,045
525
8,162
5,686
2,081
531
8,298
5,762
2,120
536
8,419
5,835
2,152
542
8,529
5,916
2,196
550
8,662
5,978
2,238
556
8,773
6,033
2,280
563
8,876
6,090
2,329
570
8,989
-400
-471
-455
-499
-597
-656
-676
-702
-737
-787
-771
14/15
Corn
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
14/15
Russian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1,300
1,284
1,291
1,288
(Thousand Hectares)
1,287
1,284
1,280
1,276
1,272
1,269
1,264
3.38
3.44
3.49
3.47
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.44
3.41
3.37
3.35
3.31
3.26
3.29
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
4,400
236
4,636
4,414
136
4,550
4,501
135
4,636
4,475
138
4,612
(Thousand Metric Tons)
4,427
4,376
4,313
139
140
142
4,565
4,516
4,455
4,279
143
4,422
4,204
146
4,350
4,139
147
4,286
4,155
149
4,304
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
4,000
550
136
4,686
4,032
542
135
4,709
3,999
542
138
4,678
3,995
541
139
4,675
3,998
540
140
4,678
4,015
539
142
4,695
4,048
538
143
4,729
4,088
538
146
4,771
4,125
537
147
4,809
4,166
536
149
4,851
4,212
535
152
4,898
-50
-160
-42
-62
-113
-180
-274
-349
-459
-565
-594
9,100
8,785
9,081
9,420
(Thousand Hectares)
9,694
9,572
9,574
9,607
9,598
9,641
9,536
1.98
1.94
1.96
1.98
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.98
1.99
2.01
2.03
2.05
2.06
2.08
19,485
3,268
22,753
19,635
3,293
22,928
19,889
3,306
23,196
19,838
3,320
23,159
Corn
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Barley
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
18,000
3,637
21,637
17,078
2,437
19,515
17,811
2,374
20,185
18,639
2,334
20,973
(Thousand Metric Tons)
19,155
19,081
19,251
3,019
3,242
3,266
22,174
22,323
22,517
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
12,400
4,700
2,437
19,537
11,407
4,650
2,374
18,430
12,089
4,743
2,334
19,166
11,853
4,792
3,019
19,664
12,179
4,793
3,242
20,214
12,276
4,787
3,266
20,329
12,355
4,771
3,268
20,394
12,486
4,767
3,293
20,547
12,596
4,757
3,306
20,659
12,718
4,748
3,320
20,786
12,797
4,727
3,319
20,842
2,100
1,084
1,019
1,309
1,960
1,994
2,123
2,206
2,269
2,410
2,316
Net Trade
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 213
Saudi Arabian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
Barley
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
0
2,298
2,298
0
2,368
2,368
0
2,409
2,409
0
2,502
2,502
(Thousand Metric Tons)
0
0
0
2,450
2,459
2,468
2,450
2,459
2,468
0
2,470
2,470
0
2,484
2,484
0
2,490
2,490
0
2,496
2,496
7,900
30
2,368
10,298
7,507
33
2,409
9,949
7,737
33
2,502
10,273
7,803
37
2,450
10,290
7,943
38
2,459
10,440
7,882
39
2,468
10,389
8,007
40
2,470
10,517
8,052
41
2,484
10,578
8,088
42
2,490
10,621
8,123
43
2,496
10,662
8,134
43
2,495
10,672
-8,000
-7,581
-7,864
-7,787
-7,990
-7,930
-8,050
-8,108
-8,136
-8,172
-8,176
214 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
South African Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
3,100
3,278
3,347
3,352
(Thousand Hectares)
3,345
3,375
3,371
3,375
3,449
3,540
3,567
3.71
3.75
3.76
3.80
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.82
3.84
3.85
3.88
3.92
3.90
3.94
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
11,500
3,182
14,682
12,294
3,007
15,301
12,589
3,070
15,659
12,737
3,073
15,810
(Thousand Metric Tons)
12,775
12,945
12,994
3,075
3,080
3,088
15,850
16,024
16,082
13,111
3,098
16,209
13,510
3,119
16,628
13,821
3,131
16,953
14,068
3,148
17,216
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
4,500
5,700
3,007
13,207
4,356
5,688
3,070
13,114
4,419
5,728
3,073
13,219
4,485
5,691
3,075
13,251
4,527
5,674
3,080
13,280
4,544
5,675
3,088
13,307
4,542
5,693
3,098
13,333
4,526
5,718
3,119
13,362
4,500
5,734
3,131
13,365
4,476
5,754
3,148
13,378
4,457
5,781
3,170
13,409
1,475
2,187
2,440
2,558
2,570
2,718
2,749
2,848
3,263
3,575
3,807
90
90
90
89
Corn
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Sorghum
Area Harvested
Yield
2.56
2.58
2.61
14/15
(Thousand Hectares)
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
2.65
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.66
2.67
2.69
2.72
2.74
2.74
2.78
(Thousand Metric Tons)
239
240
241
51
51
51
290
291
292
244
51
295
246
51
297
246
51
297
250
51
301
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
230
71
301
232
51
283
235
51
286
235
51
286
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
25
190
51
266
19
193
51
264
20
195
51
266
20
193
51
265
20
194
51
265
20
194
51
266
21
196
51
267
21
197
51
268
20
198
51
269
20
199
51
271
21
202
51
274
35
19
21
21
25
25
25
26
27
26
27
77
76
75
77
76
76
76
76
77
Yield
2.92
2.97
3.02
3.07
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.12
3.17
3.22
3.26
3.31
3.36
3.41
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
225
104
329
227
89
316
226
91
316
236
90
326
(Thousand Metric Tons)
235
239
244
91
91
91
326
330
335
249
91
340
253
91
344
257
91
348
262
91
353
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
15
300
89
404
16
300
91
407
15
297
90
402
17
297
91
405
17
296
91
404
17
296
91
404
16
296
91
403
17
296
91
404
16
297
91
404
16
297
91
405
15
297
91
403
-75
-91
-85
-79
-78
-73
-68
-64
-60
-56
-50
Net Trade
Barley
Area Harvested
Net Trade
(Thousand Hectares)
75
76
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 215
South Korean Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
Corn
Area Harvested
Yield
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
18
18
18
18
4.72
4.77
4.82
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
18
18
18
18
18
4.87
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
4.93
5.00
5.08
5.12
5.15
5.17
5.21
92
1,468
1,561
93
1,501
1,594
93
1,542
1,635
94
1,576
1,670
(Thousand Hectares)
18
18
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
85
1,490
1,575
86
1,375
1,461
87
1,381
1,467
88
1,405
1,493
(Thousand Metric Tons)
89
90
91
1,421
1,430
1,436
1,510
1,520
1,527
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
6,000
1,700
1,375
9,075
5,690
1,570
1,381
8,641
5,644
1,613
1,405
8,662
5,496
1,614
1,421
8,532
5,458
1,627
1,430
8,516
5,504
1,625
1,436
8,565
5,538
1,629
1,468
8,635
5,534
1,626
1,501
8,662
5,495
1,643
1,542
8,680
5,422
1,645
1,576
8,643
5,345
1,648
1,641
8,633
-7,500
-7,180
-7,195
-7,040
-7,006
-7,045
-7,108
-7,101
-7,086
-7,008
-6,964
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
16
16
16
16
16
Net Trade
Taiwanese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
Corn
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Barley
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
16
16
15
16
4.94
5.00
5.08
5.14
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
5.20
5.25
5.31
5.32
5.31
5.32
5.41
(Thousand Metric Tons)
84
85
85
760
798
833
844
882
918
85
863
948
84
900
984
83
927
1,010
89
956
1,044
(Thousand Hectares)
16
16
79
673
752
78
652
730
79
668
747
84
710
794
4,550
150
652
5,352
4,045
195
668
4,908
3,643
201
710
4,554
3,323
204
760
4,287
3,234
206
798
4,237
3,303
207
833
4,342
3,394
208
863
4,464
3,464
210
900
4,574
3,495
211
927
4,634
3,471
212
956
4,639
3,442
213
989
4,645
-4,600
-4,178
-3,807
-3,493
-3,393
-3,460
-3,546
-3,627
-3,650
-3,628
-3,600
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
30
0
50
20
32
0
52
16
31
0
47
17
33
0
50
17
34
0
51
17
34
0
52
17
34
0
52
18
35
0
53
18
36
0
54
18
36
0
54
17
36
0
53
-50
-52
-47
-50
-51
-52
-52
-53
-54
-54
-53
(Thousand Metric Tons)
0
0
0
0
0
0
216 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Thai Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1,010
954
1,003
1,027
(Thousand Hectares)
1,030
1,044
1,053
1,063
1,077
1,088
1,100
4.21
4.14
4.14
4.18
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
4.20
4.22
4.27
4.32
4.35
4.37
4.42
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
4,250
251
4,501
3,948
451
4,399
4,149
478
4,627
4,291
486
4,777
(Thousand Metric Tons)
4,325
4,409
4,499
491
494
497
4,816
4,903
4,996
4,592
499
5,091
4,679
503
5,182
4,753
507
5,260
4,859
510
5,369
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
3,700
100
451
4,251
3,444
95
478
4,016
3,511
94
486
4,090
3,603
95
491
4,189
3,699
95
494
4,288
3,775
95
497
4,367
3,858
95
499
4,452
3,938
95
503
4,536
4,014
95
507
4,616
4,083
95
510
4,688
4,181
96
515
4,792
250
383
537
588
528
536
544
555
566
572
578
14/15
Corn
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
14/15
Ukrainian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
Corn
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Barley
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
2,100
2,299
2,318
2,321
(Thousand Hectares)
2,333
2,340
2,346
2,355
2,367
2,382
2,384
5.00
4.61
4.65
4.69
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
4.70
4.72
4.74
4.77
4.79
4.79
4.84
(Thousand Metric Tons)
10,964
11,036
11,124
857
889
918
11,821
11,926
12,042
11,228
941
12,169
11,327
964
12,291
11,405
982
12,386
11,527
996
12,524
10,500
947
11,447
10,597
807
11,404
10,777
794
11,571
10,888
823
11,711
4,900
750
807
6,457
4,811
735
794
6,341
4,854
734
823
6,411
4,883
732
857
6,473
4,950
730
889
6,568
5,029
729
918
6,676
5,106
728
941
6,775
5,193
729
964
6,885
5,279
728
982
6,989
5,378
730
996
7,104
5,485
732
1,011
7,228
4,990
5,063
5,161
5,239
5,253
5,250
5,267
5,283
5,302
5,282
5,295
5,000
5,047
5,069
5,024
(Thousand Hectares)
4,990
4,987
4,974
4,967
4,947
4,932
4,909
2.47
2.47
2.48
2.49
12,246
879
13,125
12,242
907
13,149
12,252
930
13,182
12,241
948
13,189
2.40
2.41
2.42
2.43
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.44
2.45
2.46
12,000
1,057
13,057
12,160
712
12,872
12,260
683
12,943
12,197
809
13,005
(Thousand Metric Tons)
12,163
12,200
12,215
764
810
849
12,927
13,010
13,064
4,650
1,700
712
7,062
3,785
1,712
683
6,180
3,701
1,710
809
6,219
3,770
1,729
764
6,263
3,864
1,732
810
6,407
3,961
1,735
849
6,545
4,048
1,734
879
6,660
4,142
1,734
907
6,783
4,232
1,732
930
6,893
4,326
1,729
948
7,003
4,415
1,722
961
7,098
5,995
6,692
6,724
6,742
6,520
6,464
6,404
6,342
6,256
6,179
6,091
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 217
Vietnamese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1,200
1,115
1,137
1,142
(Thousand Hectares)
1,142
1,141
1,140
1,139
1,136
1,133
1,128
4.00
4.06
4.12
4.18
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
4.22
4.25
4.29
4.34
4.37
4.38
4.45
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
4,800
417
5,217
4,528
417
4,945
4,685
417
5,102
4,776
417
5,193
(Thousand Metric Tons)
4,816
4,853
4,894
417
417
417
5,233
5,270
5,311
4,948
417
5,365
4,963
417
5,380
4,958
417
5,375
5,019
417
5,436
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
4,300
1,200
417
5,917
3,993
1,211
417
5,621
3,996
1,223
417
5,637
4,032
1,239
417
5,687
4,087
1,254
417
5,758
4,139
1,270
417
5,826
4,204
1,285
417
5,905
4,280
1,301
417
5,998
4,351
1,318
417
6,085
4,418
1,334
417
6,170
4,492
1,353
417
6,262
-700
-675
-534
-495
-526
-556
-594
-634
-705
-795
-827
Corn
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
14/15
218 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Rest-of-World Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization
Corn
Area Harvested
Yield
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
2,601
2,528
2,465
2,452
(Thousand Hectares)
2,451
2,440
2,435
2,443
2,457
2,462
2,462
3.02
2.84
2.87
2.89
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.91
2.93
2.95
2.97
2.98
3.00
3.04
7,248
1,006
8,254
7,323
1,009
8,333
7,391
1,012
8,403
7,473
1,015
8,488
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
7,862
1,100
8,962
7,180
997
8,177
7,078
996
8,074
7,096
998
8,093
(Thousand Metric Tons)
7,122
7,145
7,173
1,000
1,002
1,004
8,122
8,147
8,177
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
4,700
1,440
997
7,137
4,120
1,447
996
6,563
4,168
1,464
998
6,630
4,160
1,480
1,000
6,641
4,140
1,496
1,002
6,638
4,118
1,512
1,004
6,634
4,153
1,528
1,006
6,687
4,147
1,549
1,009
6,706
4,123
1,566
1,012
6,700
4,128
1,584
1,015
6,728
4,175
1,603
1,019
6,798
1,825
1,614
1,444
1,453
1,484
1,512
1,490
1,548
1,632
1,675
1,690
20,910
21,495
21,656
21,557
(Thousand Hectares)
21,579
21,566
21,560
21,562
21,555
21,554
21,544
1.14
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.14
1.15
1.16
1.16
1.17
1.17
1.19
25,095
1,640
26,735
25,201
1,647
26,848
25,303
1,652
26,955
25,556
1,657
27,213
Net Trade
Sorghum
Area Harvested
Yield
1.11
1.12
1.13
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
23,196
1,797
24,993
24,085
1,613
25,699
24,438
1,614
26,052
24,525
1,623
26,149
(Thousand Metric Tons)
24,637
24,750
24,916
1,628
1,632
1,637
26,266
26,383
26,553
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
6,408
18,328
1,613
26,350
6,180
18,367
1,614
26,162
6,254
18,647
1,623
26,524
6,220
18,855
1,628
26,703
6,219
19,064
1,632
26,915
6,211
19,257
1,637
27,105
6,211
19,449
1,640
27,300
6,207
19,644
1,647
27,497
6,199
19,827
1,652
27,677
6,193
20,013
1,657
27,863
6,228
20,254
1,670
28,151
-1,357
-463
-472
-555
-650
-722
-747
-763
-830
-908
-938
Barley
Area Harvested
376
361
358
367
356
357
355
354
353
Yield
3.99
4.02
4.04
4.06
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
4.08
4.11
4.13
4.15
4.18
4.20
4.22
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,504
314
1,818
1,449
293
1,742
1,445
301
1,746
1,490
291
1,781
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,457
1,462
1,470
306
309
311
1,763
1,771
1,782
1,483
311
1,795
1,482
317
1,799
1,488
320
1,808
1,492
323
1,815
Feed Use
Food and Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,250
370
293
1,912
1,125
375
301
1,801
1,084
374
291
1,748
1,114
382
306
1,801
1,110
385
309
1,805
1,104
388
311
1,804
1,094
391
311
1,796
1,093
395
317
1,805
1,090
398
320
1,807
1,086
402
323
1,811
1,067
403
323
1,794
-95
-59
-2
-20
-41
-33
-14
-10
-9
-3
21
Net Trade
Net Trade
(Thousand Hectares)
357
356
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 219
Per Capita Grain Consumption of Selected Countries
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
0.00
4.32
0.00
4.34
0.00
4.33
0.00
4.42
0.00
4.46
0.00
4.50
0.00
4.53
0.00
4.54
0.00
4.56
0.00
4.56
Argentina
Corn
Barley
Sorghum
45.80
10.85
4.82
46.71
11.02
4.79
46.88
10.80
4.78
47.21
11.03
4.76
47.48
11.09
4.74
47.63
11.07
4.72
47.81
11.02
4.69
48.19
11.06
4.67
48.31
11.03
4.63
48.47
11.01
4.58
48.68
10.90
4.56
Australia
Corn
Barley
Sorghum
5.79
50.93
0.23
5.71
50.98
0.22
5.74
50.72
0.22
5.77
51.00
0.22
5.80
51.23
0.22
5.82
51.27
0.21
5.85
51.22
0.21
5.88
51.24
0.21
5.92
51.31
0.21
5.95
51.36
0.21
6.00
51.21
0.21
Brazil
Corn
Barley
44.89
3.15
45.04
3.20
45.27
3.12
45.50
3.20
45.76
3.24
46.00
3.24
46.27
3.24
46.61
3.26
46.92
3.28
47.28
3.30
47.72
3.29
Canada
Corn
Barley
127.03
39.88
133.01
42.24
136.67
41.70
138.64
42.69
140.94
42.83
143.10
42.74
145.29
42.42
148.42
42.57
152.36
42.67
156.37
42.74
160.55
42.49
China
Corn
Barley
32.27
3.15
34.33
3.31
34.46
3.41
35.27
3.63
35.81
3.72
36.18
3.86
36.54
4.00
36.95
4.06
37.52
4.12
38.01
4.17
38.53
4.23
Egypt
Corn
28.39
26.46
25.90
25.09
24.75
24.35
23.95
23.63
23.20
22.85
22.53
European Union
Corn
Barley
30.45
32.48
28.60
34.24
28.61
34.75
29.38
35.91
30.49
35.45
30.81
35.49
30.98
35.66
31.14
35.81
31.23
36.01
31.26
36.37
31.18
38.43
India
Corn
Sorghum
8.49
3.90
8.23
4.89
8.28
5.19
8.28
5.20
8.28
5.19
8.28
5.16
8.26
5.18
8.27
5.17
8.27
5.15
8.27
5.16
8.29
5.12
Indonesia
Corn
18.86
17.54
17.39
17.27
17.19
17.10
17.04
17.17
17.01
16.98
17.00
Israel
Corn
Barley
Sorghum
13.53
1.35
0.68
13.14
1.36
0.67
13.47
1.35
0.66
13.50
1.37
0.65
13.57
1.37
0.64
13.57
1.37
0.63
13.60
1.37
0.62
13.69
1.37
0.61
13.71
1.37
0.60
13.79
1.37
0.59
13.97
1.36
0.59
Japan
Corn
Barley
Sorghum
36.31
2.37
0.00
36.81
2.37
0.00
36.79
2.34
0.00
36.81
2.38
0.00
36.86
2.39
0.00
36.77
2.39
0.00
36.75
2.39
0.00
36.82
2.40
0.00
36.85
2.40
0.00
36.97
2.41
0.00
37.16
2.40
0.00
Malaysia
Corn
Algeria
Corn
Barley
14/15
(Kilograms)
0.00
4.49
7.60
7.47
7.50
7.54
7.56
7.60
7.62
7.66
7.70
7.74
7.81
Mexico
Corn
Barley
Sorghum
143.51
6.64
0.89
149.49
6.85
0.90
150.20
6.75
0.90
152.27
6.90
0.90
149.72
6.94
0.90
151.48
6.95
0.90
150.88
6.95
0.90
151.53
7.01
0.91
151.26
7.06
0.91
151.44
7.11
0.91
151.52
7.12
0.92
Nigeria
Sorghum
73.75
84.42
87.56
85.89
81.98
77.70
76.50
76.12
73.74
70.93
71.24
220 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Per Capita Grain Consumption of Selected Countries (continued)
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
Other Africa
Corn
Barley
40.03
2.72
39.17
2.76
38.93
2.73
39.09
2.77
39.03
2.77
Other Asia
Corn
Barley
10.97
0.93
10.79
0.94
10.82
0.92
10.76
0.94
10.73
0.94
Other Eastern Europe ‡
Corn
Barley
20.57
7.66
20.42
7.69
20.71
7.61
20.63
7.76
Other CIS †
Corn
Barley
4.22
13.27
4.19
13.36
4.22
13.34
Other Latin America
Corn
Barley
30.04
4.86
29.76
4.40
Other Middle East
Corn
Barley
7.02
6.16
Pakistan
Corn
Barley
Sorghum
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
38.90
2.78
38.87
2.78
38.79
2.79
38.75
2.79
38.90
2.78
10.69
0.94
10.66
0.94
10.66
0.94
10.64
0.94
10.63
0.94
10.64
0.93
20.71
7.84
20.83
7.90
20.98
7.93
21.13
8.01
21.25
8.06
21.39
8.13
21.64
8.14
4.22
13.36
4.23
13.36
4.23
13.35
4.24
13.34
4.25
13.34
4.26
13.33
4.26
13.32
4.28
13.29
30.04
4.32
30.28
4.41
30.48
4.45
30.61
4.47
30.77
4.49
31.01
4.52
31.15
4.55
31.35
4.58
31.55
4.59
6.84
6.18
6.84
6.12
6.87
6.21
6.88
6.22
6.87
6.22
6.88
6.21
6.88
6.23
6.88
6.23
6.89
6.23
6.90
6.21
8.42
1.49
0.39
8.22
1.37
0.34
8.25
1.33
0.35
8.23
1.36
0.35
8.23
1.32
0.35
8.24
1.31
0.35
8.26
1.31
0.35
8.29
1.31
0.35
8.31
1.30
0.35
8.34
1.30
0.35
8.37
1.30
0.36
Philippines
Corn
19.89
19.22
19.16
19.22
19.21
19.23
19.18
19.24
19.28
19.31
19.41
Russia
Corn
Barley
3.95
33.77
3.91
33.57
3.93
34.40
3.94
34.93
3.96
35.12
3.97
35.26
3.98
35.33
4.00
35.50
4.02
35.62
4.04
35.76
4.06
35.81
Saudi Arabia
Barley
1.02
1.11
1.10
1.20
1.22
1.24
1.24
1.27
1.28
1.30
1.29
South Africa
Corn
Barley
Sorghum
116.15
6.11
3.87
116.22
6.12
3.95
117.51
6.09
3.99
117.29
6.13
3.99
117.35
6.13
4.00
117.48
6.13
4.02
117.72
6.12
4.04
118.12
6.12
4.07
118.33
6.12
4.09
118.65
6.12
4.11
119.10
6.11
4.17
South Korea
Corn
(Kilograms)
38.94
2.78
34.93
32.18
32.99
32.96
33.17
33.08
33.11
33.02
33.33
33.34
33.37
Taiwan
Corn
Barley
6.51
1.30
8.46
1.37
8.71
1.32
8.82
1.43
8.87
1.46
8.91
1.48
8.95
1.48
9.02
1.51
9.05
1.53
9.10
1.54
9.16
1.54
Thailand
Corn
1.50
1.41
1.40
1.40
1.40
1.39
1.38
1.38
1.38
1.37
1.38
Ukraine
Corn
Barley
16.55
37.51
16.33
38.01
16.39
38.19
16.46
38.87
16.51
39.20
16.60
39.52
16.68
39.74
16.81
40.02
16.92
40.22
17.07
40.43
17.24
40.54
453.29
11.93
7.67
484.21
11.98
8.18
486.76
11.85
8.52
488.41
11.71
8.63
495.01
11.63
8.72
505.78
11.51
8.90
512.49
11.38
9.02
515.05
11.29
9.06
518.38
11.20
9.08
519.39
11.12
9.02
516.85
11.03
9.03
13.35
13.33
13.32
13.35
13.38
13.41
13.44
13.49
13.54
13.59
13.67
United States
Corn
Barley
Sorghum
Vietnam
Corn
‡ Countries included: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro.
† Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
WORLD OILSEEDS
AND PRODUCTS
224 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Soybeans and Soybean Products
The world soybean price decreased by 23% in 2008/09 from the high prices of 2007/09, as demand faltered
because of the global economic recession. A steeper price decline is prevented by the soybean crop failure in South
America, and in Argentina in particular, as a result of widespread and severe dryness in important production
regions. Soybean prices decline again in 2009/10, as the production rebound outpaces the demand growth derived
from the economic recovery, especially in the protein meal sector. The price continues to decline (by 6%) over the
next season because of high carryover. A slowdown in production expansion in South America and the U.S., strong
demand for vegetable oil, and strengthening soybean meal demand due to the economic recovery put prices on an
ascendant path for the remainder of the projection period. The average price over the outlook period remains 34%
above that of the previous decade, even including the spike of 2007/08.
Because of weaker competition from corn in 2009/10, U.S. soybean production increased by 13% based on a small
area expansion and record-breaking yields. The combined increase in U.S., Argentine, and Brazilian production
helped pull the world soybean output up by 20%. The large production rebound is driven by an impressive 65%
expansion of the Argentine output, after the previous season’s failure. Encouraged by relatively strong real prices,
Brazil’s soybean area is expected to post an average growth of 2.5% annually throughout the decade. However,
the U.S. remains the leading producer over the projection period. World production reaches 295 mmt at the end
of the outlook period and is concentrated in Argentina, Brazil, and the U.S. These three countries combined are
responsible for over 80% of the production expansion and account for 82% of world production by 2019/20.
The modest increase in Chinese soybean production is due to higher yields from technology improvements, as area
declines slightly. The loss of agricultural land and declining real prices as a result of the appreciation of the yuan
are two of the reasons behind the decline in area. Soybean consumption expands throughout the period and reaches
59 mmt by 2019/20, a 3.6% annual increase over the decade. Policies that encourage domestic crush, combined
with strong demand for edible oils and protein meal from the burgeoning livestock sector, make China the world’s
leading soybean importer, as domestic production is unable to keep up with that demand growth. China expands its
imports to 59 mmt, accounting for 60% of total world imports over the next 10 years. This growth in import demand
for soybeans is mostly supplied by Brazil, which becomes the leading net exporter in 2015/16, with a 43% market
share by the end of the outlook period. The EU is expected to continue its transition to the importation of protein
meal rather than soybeans because of relatively weak crush margins, which decline over time, as the block shifts its
demand toward meal.
Weak demand for meal resulted in a sharp (14%) decline in the price of soybean meal during 2008/09. Trade
disruptions during late summer due to the discovery of traces of non-approved GMO corn in a U.S. soybean meal
shipment to the EU may have also had a bearish impact on prices. As in the case of soybeans, a larger price drop
was prevented by the simultaneous drought-induced supply reduction. Further price declines are expected in
2009/10 and 2010/11 before demand catches up with the strong supply expansion and the trend is reversed. About
45% of the global consumption expansion occurs in China, which surpasses the EU as the leading protein meal
user halfway through the outlook period. However, the EU retains its position as the largest importer. The volume
of net exports in the soybean meal market increases by 27% throughout the baseline. Based on a very efficient
soybean processing sector and differential export taxes, Argentina expands its position as the world’s dominant meal
exporter, increasing its market share to 55% of the world’s net exports.
Unlike the prices of other commodities in the complex, the price of soybean oil recovers in 2009/10 after the
reduction in the previous season. Vegetable oils are expected to drive the oilseeds sector as a result of strong demand
for food and industrial uses. Chinese per capita consumption of soybean oil continues to expand rapidly based on
strong income growth, consolidating the country as the world’s largest user, with 30% of total consumption by
2019/20. Despite a large expansion in the amount of soybean oil used for industrial purposes, Argentina expands its
dominant role in the international market, supplying over 70% of total exports by the end of the projection period.
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 225
2/11/2010
Soybean Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
9,700
25,850
1,624
5
4,885
37,112
12,487
28,028
1,530
5
5,079
33,857
12,266
27,775
1,619
5
5,227
34,030
79,176
80,986
41,500
12,970
3,950
3,500
945
1,200
2,250
9,155
3,706
Total Net Imports
Prices
Illinois Processor
CIF Rotterdam
Net Exporters
Argentina
Brazil
Canada
India
Paraguay
United States
Total Net Exports *
Net Importers
China
European Union
Japan
Mexico
Other CIS †
South Korea
Taiwan
Rest of World
Residual
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
11,692
30,572
1,612
5
5,360
34,299
(Thousand Metric Tons)
11,730
11,843
11,823
32,457
33,970
35,846
1,643
1,687
1,702
5
5
5
5,498
5,648
5,804
34,274
34,465
34,652
11,966
37,674
1,710
5
5,954
34,796
12,168
39,252
1,733
5
6,093
35,071
12,421
41,040
1,758
5
6,247
35,115
12,878
42,279
1,775
5
6,395
35,322
80,921
83,541
85,607
87,618
89,833
92,106
94,322
96,587
98,655
43,030
12,721
3,928
3,456
588
1,237
2,226
10,096
3,706
43,715
12,372
3,833
3,490
563
1,202
2,232
9,807
3,706
46,017
12,299
3,859
3,509
553
1,211
2,259
10,127
3,706
47,808
12,318
3,853
3,527
533
1,206
2,280
10,376
3,706
49,615
12,263
3,846
3,547
520
1,204
2,302
10,616
3,706
51,593
12,210
3,837
3,551
509
1,211
2,325
10,891
3,706
53,614
12,169
3,823
3,555
499
1,218
2,347
11,176
3,706
55,649
12,109
3,794
3,556
486
1,219
2,368
11,434
3,706
57,703
12,059
3,776
3,555
473
1,223
2,392
11,699
3,706
59,512
12,031
3,766
3,552
460
1,229
2,415
11,984
3,706
79,176
80,986
80,921
83,541
85,607
87,618
89,833
92,106
94,322
96,587
98,655
362
408
338
382
357
404
359
408
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
365
371
375
414
422
427
379
431
384
437
388
440
390
442
* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
† Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
226 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Soybean Meal Trade
Net Exporters
Argentina
Brazil
China
India
Paraguay
United States
Total Net Exports *
Net Importers
Canada
European Union
Japan
Mexico
Other CIS †
South Korea
Taiwan
Rest of World
Residual
Total Net Imports
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
26,718
12,800
530
3,198
1,064
8,841
29,111
13,440
334
3,287
1,134
9,401
30,364
12,603
-21
3,622
1,174
9,802
53,151
56,707
1,221
22,480
1,700
1,443
548
1,850
90
21,824
1,995
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
31,474
12,811
-116
3,630
1,201
9,926
(Thousand Metric Tons)
32,322
33,168
34,040
12,828
12,917
13,073
-112
-55
172
3,623
3,617
3,664
1,226
1,253
1,279
9,945
10,038
10,131
34,812
13,222
243
3,704
1,309
10,394
35,576
13,299
322
3,745
1,338
10,612
36,312
13,352
457
3,796
1,367
10,796
36,921
13,347
648
3,817
1,399
11,142
57,565
59,042
59,943
60,993
62,359
63,683
64,890
66,079
67,273
1,297
24,374
1,765
1,544
900
1,975
137
22,721
1,995
1,290
24,175
1,828
1,551
895
1,904
115
23,792
1,995
1,288
24,278
1,908
1,593
898
1,878
105
24,984
1,995
1,286
24,048
1,979
1,627
895
1,879
114
26,009
1,995
1,257
24,079
2,048
1,657
898
1,886
127
26,990
1,995
1,251
24,258
2,108
1,709
903
1,894
145
28,096
1,995
1,262
24,474
2,138
1,752
902
1,895
154
29,111
1,995
1,265
24,594
2,157
1,795
902
1,896
161
30,125
1,995
1,265
24,723
2,162
1,837
908
1,896
164
31,129
1,995
1,266
24,923
2,158
1,879
915
1,893
164
32,081
1,995
53,151
56,707
57,565
59,042
59,943
60,993
62,359
63,683
64,890
66,079
67,273
322
377
300
351
307
359
308
361
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
312
315
316
365
369
369
316
370
317
371
317
371
318
372
Prices
FOB Decatur 48%
CIF Rotterdam
13/14
14/15
* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
† Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
Soybean Oil Trade
Net Exporters
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
United States
Total Net Exports *
Net Importers
Canada
China
European Union
India
Japan
Mexico
Other CIS †
South Korea
Taiwan
Rest of World
Residual
Total Net Imports
Prices
FOB Decatur
FOB Rotterdam
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
5,220
1,320
246
1,427
5,562
1,518
268
1,182
5,834
1,272
280
1,204
6,092
1,261
288
1,191
(Thousand Metric Tons)
6,311
6,546
6,797
1,222
1,225
1,263
297
306
315
1,296
1,276
1,150
7,025
1,312
324
1,125
7,255
1,347
333
1,131
7,479
1,378
343
1,142
7,673
1,397
353
1,210
8,304
8,556
8,622
8,869
9,164
9,396
9,572
9,837
10,121
10,401
10,695
19
2,300
410
881
50
193
-90
295
-1
3,758
398
18
2,428
573
990
49
216
-26
329
28
3,527
398
18
2,510
622
1,015
51
206
-33
337
24
3,442
398
18
2,468
694
1,104
53
213
-36
348
31
3,541
398
18
2,526
739
1,196
51
222
-40
359
39
3,616
398
14
2,554
809
1,287
50
228
-43
365
42
3,649
398
11
2,555
876
1,367
51
239
-47
369
44
3,662
398
13
2,560
957
1,456
53
251
-51
372
45
3,732
398
14
2,580
1,040
1,541
57
265
-55
378
46
3,803
398
14
2,610
1,120
1,624
60
280
-58
385
48
3,862
398
15
2,674
1,183
1,716
61
299
-62
393
50
3,906
398
8,304
8,556
8,622
8,869
9,164
9,396
9,572
9,837
10,121
10,401
10,695
812
915
798
900
856
963
870
979
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
879
896
921
989
1,008
1,035
945
1,061
966
1,085
984
1,105
995
1,117
* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
† Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 227
World Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Soybeans
Area Harvested
101,769
101,800
101,353
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
253,576
32,979
286,555
251,673
45,771
297,444
Crush
Food Use
Other Use
Residual
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
203,965
14,651
18,462
3,706
45,771
286,555
Trade *
Soybean Meal
Production
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Trade *
Soybean Oil
Production
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Trade *
Per Capita Consumption
* Excludes intraregional trade.
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
103,316
(Thousand Hectares)
104,384 105,428
106,581
107,665
108,730
109,798
110,821
252,413
47,202
299,615
259,337
46,739
306,076
(Thousand Metric Tons)
264,068 268,942
274,533
47,007
47,092
47,096
311,075 316,034
321,629
279,920
47,197
327,117
285,024
47,289
332,313
290,245
47,350
337,596
295,083
47,434
342,517
213,156
14,960
18,420
3,706
47,202
297,444
215,797
14,986
18,387
3,706
46,739
299,615
221,700
15,179
18,484
3,706
47,007
306,076
226,365
15,328
18,584
3,706
47,092
311,075
231,132
15,426
18,674
3,706
47,096
316,033
236,400
15,557
18,770
3,706
47,197
321,629
241,586
15,675
18,861
3,706
47,289
327,117
246,516
15,798
18,942
3,706
47,350
332,312
251,498
15,915
19,043
3,706
47,434
337,596
256,150
15,981
19,157
3,706
47,523
342,516
79,176
80,986
80,921
83,541
85,607
87,618
89,833
92,106
94,322
96,587
98,655
160,009
157,665
5,549
167,148
164,671
6,031
169,246
167,178
6,105
173,888
171,798
6,200
177,561
175,542
6,224
181,312
179,265
6,275
185,457
183,369
6,368
189,538
187,457
6,454
193,420
191,350
6,528
197,343
195,267
6,610
201,008
198,945
6,678
53,151
56,707
57,565
59,042
59,943
60,993
62,359
63,683
64,890
66,079
67,273
37,659
37,447
2,725
39,651
39,168
2,810
40,250
39,914
2,748
41,459
41,043
2,765
42,441
42,012
2,797
43,451
43,043
2,806
44,562
44,168
2,802
45,664
45,273
2,795
46,727
46,336
2,788
47,806
47,406
2,791
48,829
48,419
2,803
8,304
8,556
8,622
8,869
9,164
9,572
9,837
10,121
10,401
10,695
5.48
5.67
5.72
5.82
6.07
6.16
6.25
6.33
6.41
9,396
(Kilograms)
5.90
5.98
228 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
30,921
30,626
30,421
30,763
(Thousand Hectares)
30,736
30,810
30,926
31,014
31,131
31,210
31,358
2.96
2.85
2.88
2.91
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.93
2.96
2.99
3.01
3.04
3.07
3.09
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
91,474
3,761
95,235
87,395
7,188
94,583
87,579
7,757
95,336
89,407
7,343
96,750
(Thousand Metric Tons)
90,167
91,170
92,362
7,410
7,389
7,329
97,577
98,559
99,690
93,493
7,314
100,807
94,718
7,298
102,016
95,684
7,298
102,983
96,883
7,293
104,175
Crush
Seed, Residual
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
46,508
4,427
7,188
58,123
48,543
4,426
7,757
60,726
49,530
4,433
7,343
61,306
50,572
4,468
7,410
62,451
51,386
4,529
7,389
63,303
52,191
4,575
7,329
64,094
53,112
4,612
7,314
65,039
54,067
4,647
7,298
66,011
54,967
4,679
7,298
66,944
55,852
4,723
7,293
67,868
56,769
4,778
7,306
68,853
37,112
33,857
34,030
34,299
34,274
34,465
34,652
34,796
35,071
35,115
35,322
Soybean Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
36,648
213
36,861
38,235
218
38,453
39,013
233
39,246
39,834
234
40,067
40,475
236
40,711
41,109
237
41,346
41,835
238
42,073
42,586
241
42,827
43,296
242
43,538
43,992
243
44,236
44,715
245
44,960
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
27,802
218
28,020
28,820
233
29,052
29,210
234
29,443
29,906
236
30,141
30,529
237
30,766
31,069
238
31,308
31,702
241
31,942
32,191
242
32,433
32,683
243
32,926
33,196
245
33,440
33,572
246
33,817
8,841
9,401
9,802
9,926
9,945
10,038
10,131
10,394
10,612
10,796
11,142
Soybean Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
8,651
1,244
9,895
9,208
957
10,166
9,396
982
10,378
9,593
958
10,552
9,748
961
10,709
9,901
972
10,872
10,075
972
11,047
10,256
965
11,221
10,427
955
11,382
10,595
944
11,539
10,769
937
11,706
Food Use
Biodiesel Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
6,451
1,060
957
8,468
6,605
1,396
982
8,983
6,558
1,659
958
9,175
6,625
1,774
961
9,360
6,709
1,732
972
9,413
6,773
1,851
972
9,596
6,822
2,110
965
9,897
6,881
2,260
955
10,096
6,943
2,364
944
10,251
7,018
2,441
937
10,397
7,105
2,455
935
10,496
1,427
1,182
1,204
1,191
1,296
1,276
1,150
1,125
1,131
1,142
1,210
Soybeans
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 229
Argentine Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
18,800
18,502
18,757
19,029
(Thousand Hectares)
19,305
19,590
19,846
20,099
20,366
20,631
20,909
2.82
2.84
2.86
2.88
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.90
2.92
2.94
2.96
2.98
3.01
3.03
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
53,000
16,186
69,186
52,512
22,858
75,370
53,661
23,049
76,711
54,745
23,003
77,748
(Thousand Metric Tons)
55,892
57,138
58,338
23,099
23,158
23,199
78,992
80,296
81,537
59,518
23,264
82,782
60,728
23,312
84,040
62,018
23,328
85,346
63,307
23,364
86,670
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
35,000
1,628
22,858
59,486
38,207
1,627
23,049
62,883
39,799
1,642
23,003
64,445
41,281
1,677
23,099
66,057
42,398
1,707
23,158
67,262
43,519
1,735
23,199
68,453
44,686
1,765
23,264
69,715
45,712
1,791
23,312
70,816
46,728
1,815
23,328
71,872
47,719
1,842
23,364
72,925
48,539
1,867
23,386
73,792
9,700
12,487
12,266
11,692
11,730
11,843
11,823
11,966
12,168
12,421
12,878
27,370
1,464
28,834
29,878
1,441
31,319
31,123
1,484
32,607
32,281
1,486
33,768
33,155
1,499
34,654
34,032
1,506
35,538
34,945
1,511
36,455
35,747
1,522
37,269
36,542
1,529
38,071
37,317
1,532
38,849
37,957
1,537
39,494
675
1,441
2,116
723
1,484
2,208
757
1,486
2,243
794
1,499
2,293
826
1,506
2,332
859
1,511
2,370
893
1,522
2,415
928
1,529
2,457
963
1,532
2,495
1,000
1,537
2,537
1,036
1,537
2,573
26,718
29,111
30,364
31,474
32,322
33,168
34,040
34,812
35,576
36,312
36,921
Soybean Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
6,717
231
6,948
7,359
81
7,440
7,694
87
7,781
8,009
82
8,091
8,255
86
8,342
8,504
91
8,595
8,764
93
8,857
8,997
95
9,092
9,230
96
9,325
9,459
95
9,554
9,655
96
9,751
Food Use
Industrial Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
400
1,247
81
1,728
412
1,378
87
1,878
414
1,451
82
1,947
423
1,490
86
1,999
431
1,509
91
2,031
439
1,517
93
2,049
446
1,520
95
2,060
452
1,519
96
2,067
458
1,517
95
2,070
465
1,514
96
2,075
472
1,510
97
2,078
5,220
5,562
5,834
6,092
6,311
6,546
6,797
7,025
7,255
7,479
7,673
Soybeans
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Soybean Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
230 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Brazilian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
23,063
23,615
23,058
24,089
(Thousand Hectares)
24,664
25,087
25,589
26,078
26,501
26,970
27,261
2.83
2.84
2.86
2.87
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.89
2.92
2.95
2.98
3.01
3.03
3.05
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
65,159
1,773
66,932
67,137
3,702
70,839
65,954
3,706
69,660
69,230
3,701
72,931
(Thousand Metric Tons)
71,357
73,188
75,479
3,700
3,699
3,697
75,057
76,887
79,176
77,729
3,697
81,426
79,636
3,696
83,332
81,740
3,695
85,435
83,245
3,695
86,940
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
32,200
5,180
3,702
41,082
33,963
5,142
3,706
42,811
33,085
5,099
3,701
41,885
33,601
5,058
3,700
42,359
33,884
5,017
3,699
42,599
34,243
4,976
3,697
42,916
34,698
4,935
3,697
43,330
35,161
4,895
3,696
43,751
35,531
4,854
3,695
44,081
35,886
4,814
3,695
44,395
36,192
4,774
3,695
44,661
25,850
28,028
27,775
30,572
32,457
33,970
35,846
37,674
39,252
41,040
42,279
Soybean Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
24,500
1,951
26,451
25,841
2,151
27,992
25,173
2,152
27,325
25,566
2,151
27,717
25,781
2,151
27,932
26,055
2,151
28,206
26,400
2,151
28,551
26,753
2,151
28,904
27,035
2,151
29,185
27,304
2,151
29,455
27,538
2,151
29,688
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
11,500
2,151
13,651
12,400
2,152
14,552
12,571
2,151
14,722
12,755
2,151
14,906
12,953
2,151
15,104
13,138
2,151
15,289
13,327
2,151
15,478
13,531
2,151
15,682
13,736
2,151
15,887
13,953
2,151
16,104
14,190
2,151
16,341
12,800
13,440
12,603
12,811
12,828
12,917
13,073
13,222
13,299
13,352
13,347
Soybean Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
6,100
303
6,403
6,434
436
6,870
6,268
436
6,704
6,365
426
6,792
6,419
423
6,842
6,487
422
6,909
6,573
419
6,992
6,661
416
7,077
6,731
413
7,144
6,798
410
7,209
6,856
408
7,265
Food Use
Industrial Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
3,082
1,565
436
5,083
3,134
1,781
436
5,352
3,123
1,882
426
5,432
3,152
1,955
423
5,531
3,192
2,007
422
5,621
3,223
2,041
419
5,684
3,250
2,063
416
5,729
3,276
2,076
413
5,765
3,305
2,082
410
5,797
3,340
2,082
408
5,830
3,381
2,079
408
5,868
1,320
1,518
1,272
1,261
1,222
1,225
1,263
1,312
1,347
1,378
1,397
Soybeans
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 231
Canadian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1,380
1,346
1,340
1,349
(Thousand Hectares)
1,358
1,371
1,387
1,395
1,401
1,410
1,418
2.54
2.56
2.58
2.58
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.59
2.60
2.62
2.63
2.64
2.66
2.67
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
3,500
174
3,674
3,444
220
3,664
3,452
284
3,737
3,487
277
3,764
(Thousand Metric Tons)
3,519
3,571
3,631
288
284
264
3,807
3,856
3,895
3,671
262
3,933
3,700
274
3,974
3,744
278
4,022
3,780
284
4,064
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,375
455
220
2,050
1,389
460
284
2,133
1,384
456
277
2,118
1,401
462
288
2,152
1,415
464
284
2,164
1,441
464
264
2,169
1,462
469
262
2,193
1,474
475
274
2,223
1,485
478
278
2,241
1,497
483
284
2,264
1,508
488
292
2,289
1,624
1,530
1,619
1,612
1,643
1,687
1,702
1,710
1,733
1,758
1,775
Soybean Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,085
21
1,106
1,096
27
1,123
1,092
30
1,122
1,106
30
1,136
1,116
30
1,147
1,137
30
1,168
1,154
30
1,184
1,163
30
1,193
1,171
31
1,202
1,181
31
1,212
1,190
31
1,221
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,300
27
2,327
2,390
30
2,420
2,382
30
2,412
2,393
30
2,424
2,403
30
2,433
2,395
30
2,424
2,405
30
2,435
2,424
31
2,455
2,436
31
2,467
2,446
31
2,477
2,455
32
2,487
-1,221
-1,297
-1,290
-1,288
-1,286
-1,257
-1,251
-1,262
-1,265
-1,265
-1,266
Soybean Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
251
9
260
254
16
270
253
16
269
256
16
272
258
16
275
263
16
279
267
16
283
269
16
285
271
16
287
273
16
289
275
16
291
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
263
16
279
271
16
287
271
16
287
274
16
290
277
16
293
277
16
293
278
16
294
282
16
298
285
16
300
288
16
303
291
16
306
-19
-18
-18
-18
-18
-14
-11
-13
-14
-14
-15
Soybeans
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
14/15
232 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Chinese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
8,800
8,687
8,576
8,594
(Thousand Hectares)
8,593
8,598
8,607
8,609
8,612
8,604
8,645
1.65
1.67
1.69
1.70
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.72
1.74
1.76
1.78
1.79
1.81
1.83
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
14,500
9,008
23,508
14,486
9,698
24,184
14,500
9,843
24,344
14,639
9,865
24,504
(Thousand Metric Tons)
14,762
14,932
15,127
9,931
9,985
10,022
24,694
24,916
25,149
15,293
10,057
25,350
15,420
10,089
25,509
15,581
10,116
25,697
15,796
10,145
25,940
Crush
Food Use
Feed Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
44,780
8,780
1,750
9,698
65,008
46,522
9,097
1,751
9,843
67,214
47,314
9,134
1,746
9,865
68,059
49,562
9,281
1,746
9,931
70,521
51,366
9,404
1,746
9,985
72,502
53,286
9,476
1,747
10,022
74,531
55,366
9,572
1,747
10,057
76,742
57,473
9,654
1,747
10,089
78,964
59,549
9,745
1,747
10,116
81,158
61,683
9,825
1,747
10,145
83,400
63,685
9,850
1,749
10,168
85,452
-41,500
-43,030
-43,715
-46,017
-47,808
-49,615
-51,593
-53,614
-55,649
-57,703
-59,512
Soybean Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
35,439
0
35,439
36,818
0
36,818
37,444
0
37,444
39,224
0
39,224
40,651
0
40,651
42,171
0
42,171
43,817
0
43,817
45,485
0
45,485
47,127
0
47,127
48,816
0
48,816
50,401
0
50,401
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
34,909
0
34,909
36,484
0
36,484
37,465
0
37,465
39,340
0
39,340
40,764
0
40,764
42,226
0
42,226
43,645
0
43,645
45,242
0
45,242
46,805
0
46,805
48,360
0
48,360
49,753
0
49,753
530
334
-21
-116
-112
-55
172
243
322
457
648
7,982
466
8,448
8,362
428
8,790
8,576
432
9,007
9,057
432
9,489
9,464
434
9,899
9,898
437
10,335
10,367
438
10,806
10,848
439
11,287
11,329
440
11,769
11,828
441
12,269
12,307
442
12,749
10,320
428
10,748
10,787
432
11,218
11,086
432
11,517
11,523
434
11,957
11,988
437
12,424
12,451
438
12,889
12,921
439
13,360
13,407
440
13,848
13,909
441
14,350
14,437
442
14,879
14,980
443
15,423
-2,300
-2,428
-2,510
-2,468
-2,526
-2,554
-2,555
-2,560
-2,580
-2,610
-2,674
Soybeans
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Soybean Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
14/15
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 233
European Union Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Soybeans
Area Harvested
370
373
365
365
Yield
2.68
2.70
2.72
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
371
370
369
368
367
2.73
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.75
2.76
2.78
2.80
2.81
2.83
2.85
990
675
1,665
1,006
787
1,793
992
1,147
2,139
996
1,151
2,147
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,010
1,024
1,032
1,157
1,150
1,151
2,168
2,174
2,183
1,035
1,156
2,192
1,037
1,162
2,199
1,042
1,167
2,208
1,044
1,172
2,216
12,600
1,248
787
14,635
12,195
1,171
1,147
14,514
12,190
1,170
1,151
14,511
12,113
1,177
1,157
14,447
12,165
1,171
1,150
14,485
12,111
1,174
1,151
14,436
12,056
1,180
1,156
14,393
12,013
1,185
1,162
14,360
11,951
1,190
1,167
14,307
11,900
1,196
1,172
14,268
11,868
1,201
1,178
14,247
-12,970
-12,721
-12,372
-12,299
-12,318
-12,263
-12,210
-12,169
-12,109
-12,059
-12,031
Soybean Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
9,926
292
10,218
9,607
398
10,005
9,603
533
10,136
9,542
575
10,117
9,583
600
10,183
9,541
580
10,121
9,498
591
10,089
9,464
617
10,081
9,415
642
10,057
9,374
665
10,039
9,350
688
10,038
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
32,300
398
32,698
33,847
533
34,380
33,735
575
34,310
33,796
600
34,395
33,650
580
34,230
33,609
591
34,200
33,730
617
34,347
33,913
642
34,555
33,986
665
34,651
34,074
688
34,762
34,253
708
34,961
-22,480
-24,374
-24,175
-24,278
-24,048
-24,079
-24,258
-24,474
-24,594
-24,723
-24,923
Soybean Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,268
134
2,402
2,195
182
2,377
2,194
186
2,380
2,180
186
2,367
2,190
187
2,377
2,180
186
2,366
2,170
186
2,356
2,162
186
2,349
2,151
187
2,338
2,142
187
2,329
2,136
188
2,324
Food Use
Biodiesel and Industrial Use
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,450
1,050
130
182
2,812
1,485
1,149
130
186
2,950
1,475
1,211
130
186
3,003
1,484
1,260
130
187
3,061
1,489
1,310
130
186
3,115
1,494
1,365
130
186
3,174
1,498
1,418
130
186
3,232
1,505
1,484
130
187
3,305
1,511
1,550
130
187
3,378
1,519
1,613
130
188
3,449
1,525
1,663
130
189
3,507
-410
-573
-622
-694
-739
-809
-876
-957
-1,040
-1,120
-1,183
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
(Thousand Hectares)
368
371
234 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Indian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
9,600
9,550
9,547
9,611
(Thousand Hectares)
9,631
9,662
9,704
9,741
9,781
9,825
9,872
0.92
0.94
0.95
0.96
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
0.96
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.99
0.99
1.00
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
8,800
393
9,193
9,001
388
9,389
9,108
400
9,507
9,180
400
9,580
(Thousand Metric Tons)
9,229
9,281
9,411
403
405
406
9,631
9,686
9,818
9,525
409
9,933
9,639
411
10,050
9,768
413
10,181
9,855
415
10,270
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
7,600
1,200
388
9,188
7,815
1,169
400
9,384
7,948
1,154
400
9,502
8,013
1,159
403
9,575
8,055
1,167
405
9,626
8,098
1,176
406
9,681
8,216
1,188
409
9,813
8,317
1,201
411
9,928
8,419
1,213
413
10,045
8,534
1,227
415
10,176
8,607
1,241
417
10,265
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
Soybean Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
6,065
452
6,517
6,236
429
6,665
6,343
512
6,855
6,395
530
6,925
6,428
547
6,976
6,463
562
7,025
6,556
577
7,134
6,637
596
7,233
6,719
613
7,332
6,811
630
7,441
6,869
647
7,516
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,890
429
3,319
2,866
512
3,378
2,703
530
3,233
2,748
547
3,295
2,791
562
3,353
2,830
577
3,408
2,874
596
3,470
2,915
613
3,529
2,957
630
3,587
2,997
647
3,644
3,037
663
3,699
3,198
3,287
3,622
3,630
3,623
3,617
3,664
3,704
3,745
3,796
3,817
Soybean Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,362
193
1,555
1,404
193
1,597
1,432
212
1,644
1,448
210
1,658
1,460
214
1,674
1,472
221
1,692
1,497
225
1,722
1,520
228
1,747
1,542
231
1,773
1,568
235
1,802
1,586
239
1,825
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,243
193
2,436
2,375
212
2,587
2,450
210
2,659
2,547
214
2,761
2,650
221
2,870
2,754
225
2,979
2,861
228
3,089
2,972
231
3,203
3,080
235
3,314
3,188
239
3,427
3,296
244
3,540
-881
-990
-1,015
-1,104
-1,196
-1,287
-1,367
-1,456
-1,541
-1,624
-1,716
Soybeans
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
14/15
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 235
Japanese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Soybeans
Area Harvested
138
133
132
133
Yield
1.63
1.64
1.64
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
225
94
319
217
164
381
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
132
132
132
132
132
1.64
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.65
1.65
1.66
1.66
1.66
1.66
1.66
217
179
396
218
171
389
(Thousand Metric Tons)
217
218
219
176
172
170
393
391
389
220
171
391
219
173
392
220
174
393
219
175
394
2,750
1,040
315
164
4,269
2,755
1,057
317
179
4,309
2,695
1,046
318
171
4,229
2,702
1,051
319
176
4,248
2,711
1,044
318
172
4,246
2,709
1,040
318
170
4,237
2,698
1,039
319
171
4,227
2,683
1,039
319
173
4,214
2,657
1,037
319
174
4,187
2,638
1,037
318
175
4,169
2,627
1,038
318
178
4,160
-3,950
-3,928
-3,833
-3,859
-3,853
-3,846
-3,837
-3,823
-3,794
-3,776
-3,766
Soybean Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,139
167
2,306
2,143
158
2,301
2,096
168
2,264
2,102
168
2,270
2,109
172
2,281
2,107
170
2,277
2,098
170
2,268
2,087
172
2,259
2,067
174
2,241
2,052
176
2,228
2,043
179
2,222
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
3,848
158
4,006
3,898
168
4,066
3,924
168
4,092
4,006
172
4,177
4,089
170
4,259
4,155
170
4,325
4,204
172
4,376
4,223
174
4,397
4,222
176
4,398
4,211
179
4,390
4,199
181
4,380
-1,700
-1,765
-1,828
-1,908
-1,979
-2,048
-2,108
-2,138
-2,157
-2,162
-2,158
Soybean Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
502
5
507
503
12
515
492
12
504
493
11
505
495
11
506
494
11
506
492
11
504
490
11
501
485
11
496
482
11
492
479
11
490
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
545
12
557
552
12
564
544
11
555
547
11
558
546
11
558
545
11
556
543
11
554
543
11
554
542
11
553
542
11
552
540
11
551
-50
-49
-51
-53
-51
-50
-51
-53
-57
-60
-61
Crush
Food Use
Feed Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
(Thousand Hectares)
132
132
236 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Mexican Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
70
68
69
70
74
75
76
77
78
Yield
1.50
1.52
1.55
1.57
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.58
1.61
1.63
1.66
1.67
1.70
1.72
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
105
36
141
104
46
150
106
48
154
110
47
157
(Thousand Metric Tons)
113
117
121
47
47
47
161
164
168
124
48
172
128
48
176
131
48
180
135
49
184
3,560
0
35
46
3,641
3,523
0
35
48
3,606
3,562
0
35
47
3,645
3,584
0
35
47
3,666
3,606
0
35
47
3,688
3,629
0
35
47
3,711
3,637
0
35
48
3,720
3,644
0
35
48
3,727
3,649
0
35
48
3,732
3,652
0
35
49
3,735
3,651
0
35
49
3,735
-3,500
-3,456
-3,490
-3,509
-3,527
-3,547
-3,551
-3,555
-3,556
-3,555
-3,552
Soybean Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,800
91
2,891
2,771
34
2,805
2,802
36
2,838
2,819
36
2,855
2,836
37
2,872
2,854
37
2,891
2,861
37
2,897
2,866
37
2,904
2,870
38
2,908
2,872
38
2,910
2,872
39
2,911
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
4,300
34
4,334
4,313
36
4,349
4,353
36
4,389
4,411
37
4,448
4,463
37
4,499
4,511
37
4,548
4,569
37
4,607
4,618
38
4,656
4,664
38
4,703
4,708
39
4,747
4,750
40
4,789
-1,443
-1,544
-1,551
-1,593
-1,627
-1,657
-1,709
-1,752
-1,795
-1,837
-1,879
Soybean Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
626
5
631
619
9
628
626
9
636
630
9
639
634
9
643
638
9
647
640
9
648
641
9
650
642
9
651
642
9
651
642
9
651
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
815
9
824
836
9
845
832
9
841
843
9
852
856
9
865
866
9
875
879
9
888
892
9
901
907
9
915
922
9
931
941
9
950
-193
-216
-206
-213
-222
-228
-239
-251
-265
-280
-299
Soybeans
Area Harvested
Crush
Food Use
Feed Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
(Thousand Hectares)
71
73
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 237
Other CIS Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Soybeans
Area Harvested
800
851
886
Yield
1.19
1.14
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
950
92
1,042
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
918
(Thousand Hectares)
948
978
1,008
1,038
1,068
1,099
1,130
1.16
1.17
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.19
1.21
1.22
1.23
1.25
1.26
1.27
969
127
1,096
1,028
130
1,158
1,076
130
1,206
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,132
1,182
1,232
131
131
132
1,263
1,314
1,363
1,280
132
1,413
1,331
133
1,464
1,383
133
1,516
1,435
134
1,568
1,810
50
127
1,987
1,502
52
130
1,684
1,538
53
130
1,721
1,574
54
131
1,759
1,610
55
131
1,796
1,646
56
132
1,833
1,683
57
132
1,872
1,721
58
133
1,911
1,758
59
133
1,950
1,796
60
134
1,989
1,834
60
134
2,028
-945
-588
-563
-553
-533
-520
-509
-499
-486
-473
-460
Soybean Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,427
8
1,435
1,182
14
1,196
1,211
16
1,226
1,239
16
1,255
1,267
16
1,283
1,295
16
1,312
1,325
16
1,341
1,354
17
1,371
1,384
17
1,401
1,413
17
1,431
1,443
17
1,461
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,969
14
1,983
2,080
16
2,096
2,106
16
2,122
2,137
16
2,153
2,162
16
2,178
2,193
16
2,209
2,227
17
2,244
2,257
17
2,274
2,286
17
2,303
2,321
17
2,338
2,358
17
2,376
-548
-900
-895
-898
-895
-898
-903
-902
-902
-908
-915
Soybean Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
324
13
337
269
11
280
275
12
287
282
11
293
288
12
300
295
12
306
301
12
313
308
12
320
315
12
327
321
12
334
328
12
341
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
236
11
247
242
12
254
243
11
254
245
12
257
248
12
260
251
12
263
254
12
266
257
12
269
260
12
272
263
12
275
266
12
279
90
26
33
36
40
43
47
51
55
58
62
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
238 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Paraguayan Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
2,800
2,848
2,894
2,949
(Thousand Hectares)
3,003
3,055
3,104
3,153
3,203
3,253
3,305
2.39
2.42
2.44
2.46
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.48
2.51
2.53
2.56
2.58
2.61
2.63
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
6,700
44
6,744
6,883
179
7,062
7,076
185
7,260
7,266
183
7,449
(Thousand Metric Tons)
7,455
7,658
7,865
183
183
183
7,638
7,841
8,049
8,070
184
8,254
8,264
184
8,448
8,476
184
8,660
8,683
185
8,867
Crush
Food Use
Feed Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,550
0
130
179
1,859
1,665
0
134
185
1,983
1,718
0
133
183
2,034
1,772
0
134
183
2,089
1,822
0
135
183
2,140
1,874
0
136
183
2,193
1,924
0
136
184
2,244
1,979
0
137
184
2,300
2,033
0
138
184
2,355
2,089
0
139
185
2,413
2,148
0
140
185
2,473
4,885
5,079
5,227
5,360
5,498
5,648
5,804
5,954
6,093
6,247
6,395
1,209
25
1,234
1,299
21
1,320
1,340
28
1,368
1,382
25
1,408
1,421
24
1,446
1,462
24
1,485
1,501
23
1,524
1,543
23
1,567
1,586
23
1,609
1,630
23
1,652
1,676
22
1,698
149
21
170
158
28
186
169
25
194
182
24
207
196
24
220
209
23
233
222
23
245
235
23
258
248
23
271
263
22
285
277
22
299
1,064
1,134
1,174
1,201
1,226
1,253
1,279
1,309
1,338
1,367
1,399
287
15
302
308
18
326
318
19
337
328
18
346
337
18
355
347
17
364
356
17
373
366
17
383
376
16
393
387
16
403
398
16
413
38
18
56
39
19
58
40
18
58
40
18
58
41
17
58
41
17
59
42
17
59
43
16
59
43
16
59
44
16
60
45
15
60
246
268
280
288
297
306
315
324
333
343
353
Soybeans
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Soybean Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Soybean Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
14/15
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 239
South Korean Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
76
66
60
59
58
58
57
57
57
Yield
1.71
1.74
1.74
1.75
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.76
1.77
1.77
1.79
1.79
1.79
1.80
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
130
50
180
114
46
160
105
65
170
102
66
168
(Thousand Metric Tons)
102
102
102
69
70
70
170
172
172
103
70
173
103
71
174
103
71
174
102
72
175
881
403
50
46
1,380
871
415
46
65
1,397
847
415
43
66
1,372
851
417
43
69
1,380
846
418
42
70
1,376
845
418
42
70
1,375
851
419
42
70
1,383
858
419
42
71
1,391
859
420
42
71
1,393
863
420
42
72
1,398
866
421
42
74
1,403
-1,200
-1,237
-1,202
-1,211
-1,206
-1,204
-1,211
-1,218
-1,219
-1,223
-1,229
704
113
817
696
118
814
677
178
855
680
188
868
676
197
873
675
201
876
680
203
884
686
207
893
687
211
898
689
215
904
692
219
912
2,549
118
2,667
2,611
178
2,789
2,571
188
2,759
2,549
197
2,746
2,551
201
2,752
2,559
203
2,763
2,571
207
2,778
2,577
211
2,787
2,579
215
2,793
2,581
219
2,800
2,581
224
2,805
-1,850
-1,975
-1,904
-1,878
-1,879
-1,886
-1,894
-1,895
-1,896
-1,896
-1,893
Soybean Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
159
6
165
157
15
172
153
17
170
154
17
170
153
17
170
152
17
170
154
17
171
155
17
172
155
17
172
156
17
173
156
17
173
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
445
15
460
484
17
501
490
17
507
501
17
518
511
17
529
518
17
535
522
17
540
527
17
544
533
17
550
540
17
557
549
17
566
-295
-329
-337
-348
-359
-365
-369
-372
-378
-385
-393
Soybeans
Area Harvested
Crush
Food Use
Feed Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Soybean Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
(Thousand Hectares)
58
58
240 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Taiwanese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
0
60
60
0
70
70
0
85
85
0
87
87
1,970
270
0
70
2,310
1,931
280
0
85
2,296
1,948
282
0
87
2,316
1,969
286
0
91
2,346
1,988
289
0
95
2,372
2,007
292
0
98
2,397
-2,250
-2,226
-2,232
-2,259
-2,280
Soybean Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,555
18
1,573
1,524
19
1,543
1,537
23
1,560
1,554
24
1,578
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,644
19
1,663
1,657
23
1,680
1,651
24
1,675
-90
-137
Soybean Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
352
9
361
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Soybeans
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Crush
Food Use
Feed Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Thousand Metric Tons)
0
0
0
91
95
98
91
95
98
0
102
102
0
104
104
0
107
107
0
109
109
2,026
295
0
102
2,423
2,046
298
0
104
2,448
2,066
300
0
107
2,472
2,086
303
0
109
2,498
2,107
306
0
112
2,524
-2,302
-2,325
-2,347
-2,368
-2,392
-2,415
1,569
25
1,594
1,584
26
1,610
1,599
27
1,626
1,615
28
1,643
1,631
29
1,659
1,646
29
1,676
1,663
30
1,693
1,658
25
1,683
1,682
26
1,708
1,711
27
1,737
1,743
28
1,771
1,769
29
1,797
1,791
29
1,820
1,810
30
1,840
1,826
31
1,857
-115
-105
-114
-127
-145
-154
-161
-164
-164
345
10
355
348
14
362
352
14
366
355
16
371
359
18
376
362
19
381
366
20
386
369
21
390
373
21
394
376
22
399
350
10
360
369
14
383
372
14
386
381
16
397
392
18
410
399
19
418
405
20
425
410
21
430
414
21
435
420
22
442
426
23
449
1
-28
-24
-31
-39
-42
-44
-45
-46
-48
-50
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 241
Rest-of-World Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
4,951
5,135
5,249
5,387
(Thousand Hectares)
5,516
5,644
5,775
5,903
6,032
6,162
6,291
1.62
1.64
1.65
1.65
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.65
1.66
1.66
1.67
1.67
1.68
1.68
8,043
633
8,676
8,406
298
8,704
8,635
324
8,959
8,880
316
9,196
(Thousand Metric Tons)
9,112
9,359
9,613
321
325
327
9,433
9,683
9,941
9,859
331
10,190
10,101
335
10,436
10,356
339
10,695
10,599
343
10,942
11,381
3,588
2,564
298
17,831
12,277
3,511
2,688
324
18,800
12,237
3,502
2,711
316
18,766
12,704
3,526
2,771
321
19,322
13,114
3,544
2,826
325
19,809
13,533
3,561
2,878
327
20,300
13,984
3,582
2,934
331
20,831
14,437
3,603
2,991
335
21,366
14,864
3,622
3,046
339
21,870
15,303
3,644
3,103
343
22,394
15,749
3,667
3,162
348
22,926
-9,155
-10,096
-9,807
-10,127
-10,376
-10,616
-10,891
-11,176
-11,434
-11,699
-11,984
9,142
385
9,527
9,823
521
10,343
9,791
639
10,430
10,164
641
10,805
10,493
666
11,158
10,828
683
11,511
11,188
701
11,889
11,551
728
12,279
11,892
754
12,646
12,244
778
13,022
12,601
804
13,404
30,830
521
31,351
32,425
639
33,064
33,581
641
34,222
35,123
666
35,789
36,484
683
37,167
37,800
701
38,501
39,257
728
39,985
40,636
754
41,390
41,993
778
42,772
43,348
804
44,151
44,658
827
45,485
-21,824
-22,721
-23,792
-24,984
-26,009
-26,990
-28,096
-29,111
-30,125
-31,129
-32,081
Soybean Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,078
278
2,356
2,233
357
2,590
2,226
375
2,601
2,310
357
2,667
2,385
361
2,746
2,461
368
2,829
2,543
371
2,914
2,626
371
2,997
2,703
372
3,075
2,783
373
3,157
2,864
377
3,241
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
5,757
357
6,114
5,742
375
6,117
5,686
357
6,042
5,847
361
6,208
5,994
368
6,362
6,107
371
6,478
6,205
371
6,576
6,357
372
6,729
6,504
373
6,878
6,642
377
7,019
6,765
383
7,148
-3,758
-3,527
-3,442
-3,541
-3,616
-3,649
-3,662
-3,732
-3,803
-3,862
-3,906
Soybeans
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Crush
Food Use
Feed Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Soybean Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
14/15
242 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Rapeseed and Rapeseed Products
The price spike of 2007/08 triggered a 20% increase in rapeseed production through a combination of expanded
area and bumper yields. The resulting record-breaking crop faced a demand weakened by the global economic
recession, and prices plummeted by almost 40% year on year. It is likely that the global scarcity of soybeans
prevented a larger price decline. The demand recovery in 2009/10 increases the price only slightly, as large
carryover stocks combine with a new record crop. Rapeseed prices are then expected to increase by 13% by the
end of the projection period. The rapeseed meal price declined in 2008/09 and is expected to decline in the next
two seasons, as large supplies become available because of expanded crush for oil, which outpaces the demand
recovery. Meal prices then stabilize and grow moderately in the later period. Rapeseed oil is the driver of the
complex, pushed by demand for biodiesel use in the EU. Unlike other products in the complex, the price of
rapeseed oil recovers in 2009/10 and sustains strong growth during the outlook. The rapeseed oil price stays close
to that of sunflower oil throughout the projection period.
Area expansion in China and the EU combined with strong yields increased world rapeseed production by 2%
in 2009/10 for a new record crop, despite smaller production in Canada and India. By 2019/20, world rapeseed
production reaches 69 mmt. The largest producer, the EU, holds 35% of the market, while China’s production share
declines to 21% over the next decade. World consumption increases 16% by 2019/20 as biodiesel demand in the
EU continues to expand. Net exports of rapeseed increase to 11.4 mmt over the baseline, with Canada positioned
as the dominant net exporter. However, Canada is expected to lose some market share to Ukraine and Other CIS
countries.
Canada’s rapeseed harvested area is expected to increase to 6.9 mha, pushing production to 13.9 mmt by 2019/20.
Canada’s rapeseed-derived products are generally export oriented. By 2019/20, Canada’s net exports account for
roughly 85% of the rapeseed meal and oil produced. Over the next decade, Canada’s rapeseed meal net exports
reach 3.0 mmt, accounting for 63% of world net exports. Rapeseed oil net exports increase 40% by 2018/19,
contributing almost 85% of world net exports.
Ukraine maintains its recently acquired position as an important net exporter of rapeseed throughout the baseline.
While its production declined from the bumper crop of 2008/09 as yield returned to normal levels, area harvested is
expected to remain at much higher levels than in the previous decade. Because of a lack of crushing facilities, more
than 80% of Ukraine’s annual production is expected to enter the world market by 2019/20.
Rapeseed is expected to remain the dominant oilseed crop in the EU for the outlook period. Harvested area
expanded recently and grows an additional 11% over the outlook period, reaching 7.36 mha by 2019/20. That area
is expected to be 40% higher on average in the outlook period than in the previous decade. Because of extensive
demand for biodiesel, rapeseed crush is projected to grow on average by 2.3% annually for the remainder of the
baseline. Consumption of rapeseed oil continues to grow, driven by biodiesel demand, and reaches 11.8 mmt by
2019/20. Industrial uses account for all the consumption growth, as food demand declines because of the high
prices. Despite the expansion in rapeseed production and crushing facilities, the demand for rapeseed oil outpaces
the rapeseed crush volume. The EU imports increasing quantities of rapeseed oil throughout the baseline period.
Net imports reach 0.9 mmt by 2019/20. On the other hand, and given the enhanced crush, the EU becomes a
consistent net exporter of rapeseed meal.
Chinese rapeseed production increases in 2009/10 by 10% as a result of higher area and strong yields, and imports
retreat from the very high levels observed in the previous season. However, net imports of rapeseed remain high
over the outlook period. Domestic crush expands at an average annual rate of 2%. Because of the growing livestock
industry, rapeseed meal usage for feed increases by 12% over the outlook period, on top of the sharp growth
observed in the past two seasons.
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 243
Rapeseed Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1,150
5,970
547
1,615
1,099
6,277
571
1,674
1,120
6,419
611
1,726
1,135
6,492
646
1,777
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,145
1,153
1,161
6,478
6,588
6,694
682
719
754
1,828
1,880
1,933
1,172
6,796
791
1,987
1,185
6,953
829
2,043
1,200
7,047
870
2,099
1,209
7,125
911
2,157
9,282
9,621
9,876
10,050
10,134
10,340
10,543
10,747
11,010
11,216
11,402
1,150
1,550
15
2,200
568
3,137
662
914
1,977
15
2,176
590
3,287
662
942
2,123
15
2,192
587
3,354
662
874
2,307
15
2,197
583
3,412
662
801
2,373
15
2,199
578
3,505
662
782
2,495
15
2,201
574
3,610
662
777
2,591
15
2,208
571
3,718
662
784
2,722
15
2,215
564
3,784
662
864
2,846
15
2,222
558
3,843
662
897
2,969
15
2,224
553
3,897
662
935
3,071
15
2,226
550
3,944
662
Total Net Imports
9,282
9,621
9,876
10,050
10,134
10,340
10,543
10,747
11,010
11,216
11,402
Prices
Cash Vancouver
CIF Hamburg
386
397
398
409
399
410
404
415
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
407
410
414
419
421
426
423
435
430
443
437
450
436
450
Net Exporters
Australia
Canada
Other CIS *
Ukraine
Total Net Exports †
Net Importers
China
European Union
India
Japan
United States
Rest of World
Residual
14/15
* Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
† Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
Rapeseed Meal Trade
Net Exporters
Canada
European Union
India
Other CIS *
Ukraine
Total Net Exports †
Net Importers
China
Japan
United States
Rest of World
Residual
Total Net Imports
Price
FOB Hamburg
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
2,095
50
800
162
50
2,222
77
772
166
63
2,313
135
842
174
76
2,404
190
862
183
89
(Thousand Metric Tons)
2,538
2,627
2,708
267
286
252
848
850
906
191
199
206
102
115
128
2,784
208
990
215
140
2,848
201
1,067
223
153
2,936
211
1,129
229
165
3,020
217
1,170
235
176
3,159
3,300
3,540
3,728
3,947
4,076
4,199
4,337
4,492
4,670
4,818
110
80
1,762
942
265
63
76
1,724
1,173
265
115
90
1,806
1,265
265
209
101
1,825
1,328
265
329
123
1,858
1,372
265
346
145
1,901
1,419
265
410
150
1,919
1,456
265
463
147
1,940
1,521
265
541
140
1,958
1,587
265
624
134
1,985
1,662
265
681
128
2,009
1,735
265
3,159
3,300
3,540
3,728
3,947
4,076
4,199
4,337
4,492
4,670
4,818
191
187
184
189
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
193
194
197
199
200
200
201
* Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
† Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
244 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Rapeseed Oil Trade
Net Exporters
Australia
Canada
Other CIS *
Ukraine
Total Net Exports †
Net Importers
China
European Union
India
Japan
United States
Rest of World
Residual
Total Net Imports
Price
FOB Hamburg
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
86
1,620
100
40
85
1,690
117
47
84
1,756
124
57
85
1,819
132
66
(Thousand Metric Tons)
86
88
90
1,920
1,989
2,048
138
144
151
75
85
94
92
2,104
158
103
94
2,151
165
112
97
2,216
172
120
99
2,275
178
129
1,846
1,938
2,021
2,102
2,220
2,306
2,383
2,457
2,522
2,604
2,680
240
250
22
40
861
133
300
81
489
22
42
850
155
300
61
556
22
44
875
163
300
122
552
22
46
887
172
300
191
587
22
48
904
168
300
237
614
22
50
922
160
300
268
655
22
52
937
149
300
267
733
22
54
935
146
300
240
819
22
56
937
149
300
239
891
22
58
940
154
300
246
929
22
60
955
169
300
1,846
1,938
2,021
2,102
2,220
2,306
2,383
2,457
2,522
2,604
2,680
952
985
1,016
1,032
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
1,036
1,045
1,066
1,104
1,136
1,165
1,172
* Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
† Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 245
World Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Rapeseed
Area Harvested
30,906
31,684
32,177
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
59,372
7,050
66,422
59,820
7,077
66,897
Crush
Other Use
Residual
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
55,664
3,019
662
7,077
66,422
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
32,392
(Thousand Hectares)
32,609
32,798
32,934
33,079
33,269
33,443
33,608
61,226
7,093
68,319
62,111
7,156
69,267
(Thousand Metric Tons)
63,132
64,141
65,013
7,175
7,175
7,177
70,307
71,315
72,191
65,903
7,189
73,092
66,890
7,199
74,089
67,849
7,209
75,058
68,779
7,219
75,998
56,332
2,810
662
7,093
66,897
57,575
2,926
662
7,156
68,319
58,320
3,109
662
7,175
69,267
59,215
3,255
662
7,175
70,307
60,153
3,323
662
7,177
71,315
61,035
3,305
662
7,189
72,191
61,992
3,238
662
7,199
73,092
63,013
3,205
662
7,209
74,089
63,976
3,201
662
7,219
75,058
64,840
3,250
662
7,247
75,998
9,282
9,621
9,876
10,050
10,134
10,340
10,543
10,747
11,010
11,216
11,402
Rapeseed Meal
Production
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Trade *
32,946
32,699
400
3,159
33,336
33,062
409
3,300
34,068
33,794
418
3,540
34,497
34,232
418
3,728
35,011
34,747
417
3,947
35,554
35,286
419
4,076
36,067
35,800
421
4,199
36,626
36,358
424
4,337
37,226
36,959
427
4,492
37,789
37,520
430
4,670
38,295
38,026
434
4,818
Rapeseed Oil
Production
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Trade *
21,880
21,400
1,139
1,846
22,147
21,845
1,141
1,938
22,640
22,337
1,145
2,021
22,947
22,643
1,149
2,102
23,317
23,015
1,151
2,220
23,700
23,396
1,154
2,306
24,055
23,753
1,156
2,383
24,439
24,141
1,154
2,457
24,844
24,546
1,152
2,522
25,231
24,933
1,151
2,604
25,578
25,275
1,153
2,680
3.13
3.16
3.20
3.21
3.23
3.27
3.29
3.31
3.33
3.34
Trade *
Per Capita Consumption
* Excludes intraregional trade.
13/14
14/15
(Kilograms)
3.25
246 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Canola Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Canola
Area Harvested
329
380
381
381
Yield
2.03
1.72
1.74
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
669
201
870
652
188
840
1,220
31
188
1,439
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Canola Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Canola Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
387
393
402
409
415
1.76
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.78
1.80
1.82
1.84
1.86
1.88
1.90
662
187
849
668
189
858
(Thousand Metric Tons)
680
690
702
190
191
191
870
881
894
722
192
914
746
192
937
768
191
959
787
191
978
1,211
31
187
1,430
1,214
32
189
1,435
1,219
32
190
1,441
1,225
33
191
1,448
1,231
33
191
1,455
1,239
33
192
1,465
1,253
34
192
1,478
1,270
34
191
1,495
1,287
34
191
1,512
1,302
34
192
1,528
-568
-590
-587
-583
-578
-574
-571
-564
-558
-553
-550
739
5
744
734
5
739
735
5
741
738
5
744
742
5
747
745
5
751
750
5
756
759
5
764
769
5
774
779
5
785
788
5
794
2,501
5
2,506
2,457
5
2,463
2,541
5
2,547
2,564
5
2,569
2,600
5
2,605
2,647
5
2,652
2,669
5
2,675
2,699
5
2,704
2,727
5
2,733
2,764
5
2,770
2,797
5
2,802
-1,762
-1,724
-1,806
-1,825
-1,858
-1,901
-1,919
-1,940
-1,958
-1,985
-2,009
482
75
557
478
83
561
479
86
565
481
88
569
484
89
573
486
92
578
489
94
583
495
95
590
501
94
596
508
93
601
514
91
605
1,334
83
1,417
1,325
86
1,411
1,353
88
1,441
1,367
89
1,456
1,385
92
1,476
1,406
94
1,500
1,424
95
1,519
1,431
94
1,525
1,440
93
1,533
1,450
91
1,541
1,469
91
1,560
-861
-850
-875
-887
-904
-922
-937
-935
-937
-940
-955
(Thousand Hectares)
383
384
Note: Rapeseed varieties low in erucic acid and glucosinulates are produced under the name canola in Canada and the U.S.
They are equivalent to 00 rapeseed varieties produced elsewhere.
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 247
Australian Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1,265
1,260
1,271
1,273
(Thousand Hectares)
1,271
1,270
1,267
1,268
1,270
1,273
1,273
1.40
1.41
1.42
1.44
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.45
1.46
1.47
1.49
1.50
1.51
1.52
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,770
429
2,199
1,779
374
2,153
1,811
371
2,182
1,828
375
2,203
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,842
1,856
1,868
375
376
378
2,217
2,232
2,245
1,885
378
2,263
1,904
378
2,282
1,924
378
2,302
1,939
379
2,318
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
650
25
374
1,049
658
25
371
1,054
662
25
375
1,061
667
25
375
1,067
671
25
376
1,073
676
25
378
1,079
681
25
378
1,085
687
25
378
1,091
693
25
378
1,097
699
25
379
1,103
704
25
380
1,109
1,150
1,099
1,120
1,135
1,145
1,153
1,161
1,172
1,185
1,200
1,209
Rapeseed Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
374
0
374
379
0
379
381
0
381
384
0
384
386
0
386
389
0
389
392
0
392
395
0
395
399
0
399
402
0
402
405
0
405
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
372
0
372
379
0
379
381
0
381
384
0
384
386
0
386
389
0
389
392
0
392
395
0
395
399
0
399
402
0
402
405
0
405
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Rapeseed Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
260
15
275
263
10
273
265
10
275
267
10
277
269
10
278
270
10
280
273
10
283
275
10
285
277
10
287
279
10
289
281
10
291
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
179
10
189
179
10
188
180
10
190
182
10
192
182
10
192
182
10
193
183
10
193
183
10
193
183
10
193
183
10
193
183
10
193
86
85
84
85
86
88
90
92
94
97
99
Rapeseed
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
14/15
248 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Canadian Canola Sector Supply and Utilization
Canola
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Canola Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Canola Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
6,162
6,256
6,373
6,421
(Thousand Hectares)
6,474
6,545
6,615
6,675
6,747
6,807
6,859
1.93
1.85
1.87
1.89
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.91
1.93
1.95
1.97
1.99
2.01
2.03
11,920
1,661
13,581
11,561
2,281
13,842
11,905
2,282
14,187
12,122
2,304
14,426
(Thousand Metric Tons)
12,352
12,620
12,886
2,310
2,310
2,299
14,662
14,930
15,185
13,139
2,297
15,436
13,414
2,302
15,716
13,670
2,304
15,974
13,913
2,305
16,218
4,700
450
2,281
7,431
4,821
462
2,282
7,565
4,988
476
2,304
7,768
5,143
482
2,310
7,934
5,388
486
2,310
8,184
5,555
488
2,299
8,343
5,701
493
2,297
8,491
5,839
499
2,302
8,640
5,955
504
2,304
8,763
6,112
509
2,305
8,927
6,261
516
2,316
9,093
5,970
6,277
6,419
6,492
6,478
6,588
6,694
6,796
6,953
7,047
7,125
2,700
21
2,721
2,770
26
2,796
2,865
26
2,891
2,954
26
2,981
3,095
26
3,122
3,191
26
3,218
3,275
26
3,301
3,354
26
3,381
3,421
26
3,447
3,511
26
3,538
3,597
26
3,623
600
26
626
547
26
573
552
26
579
550
26
577
557
26
583
565
26
591
567
26
594
570
26
596
573
26
599
575
26
602
577
26
603
2,095
2,222
2,313
2,404
2,538
2,627
2,708
2,784
2,848
2,936
3,020
2,000
58
2,058
2,052
78
2,130
2,122
78
2,200
2,188
78
2,266
2,293
78
2,371
2,364
78
2,442
2,426
78
2,504
2,485
78
2,563
2,534
78
2,612
2,601
78
2,679
2,664
78
2,742
360
78
438
362
78
440
366
78
444
369
78
448
373
78
451
375
78
453
378
78
456
381
78
458
383
78
461
385
78
463
389
78
467
1,620
1,690
1,756
1,819
1,920
1,989
2,048
2,104
2,151
2,216
2,275
Note: Rapeseed varieties low in erucic acid and glucosinulates are produced under the name canola in Canada and the U.S.
They are equivalent to 00 rapeseed varieties produced elsewhere.
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 249
Chinese Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
7,000
7,157
7,191
7,152
(Thousand Hectares)
7,109
7,071
7,032
7,002
6,980
6,949
6,923
1.89
1.91
1.92
1.94
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.96
1.98
2.00
2.02
2.04
2.06
2.08
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
13,200
1,394
14,594
13,634
1,294
14,928
13,838
1,294
15,132
13,902
1,294
15,196
(Thousand Metric Tons)
13,957
14,020
14,080
1,294
1,294
1,294
15,251
15,314
15,374
14,154
1,294
15,448
14,246
1,294
15,540
14,317
1,294
15,611
14,399
1,294
15,693
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
13,900
550
1,294
15,744
13,974
574
1,294
15,842
14,194
586
1,294
16,075
14,184
592
1,294
16,070
14,161
597
1,294
16,052
14,201
601
1,294
16,096
14,253
604
1,294
16,151
14,333
605
1,294
16,232
14,504
607
1,294
16,405
14,606
608
1,294
16,508
14,723
610
1,294
16,628
-1,150
-914
-942
-874
-801
-782
-777
-784
-864
-897
-935
Rapeseed Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
8,739
0
8,739
8,785
0
8,785
8,924
0
8,924
8,918
0
8,918
8,903
0
8,903
8,928
0
8,928
8,961
0
8,961
9,011
0
9,011
9,119
0
9,119
9,183
0
9,183
9,257
0
9,257
Feed Use
Industrial Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
8,484
365
0
8,849
8,472
376
0
8,849
8,652
387
0
9,039
8,734
393
0
9,126
8,834
398
0
9,232
8,871
404
0
9,274
8,964
407
0
9,371
9,064
411
0
9,475
9,245
415
0
9,660
9,388
419
0
9,807
9,516
422
0
9,938
-110
-63
-115
-209
-329
-346
-410
-463
-541
-624
-681
Rapeseed Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
4,935
291
5,226
4,961
364
5,325
5,040
364
5,404
5,036
364
5,400
5,028
364
5,392
5,042
364
5,406
5,060
364
5,424
5,089
364
5,453
5,149
364
5,513
5,186
364
5,550
5,227
364
5,591
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
5,102
364
5,466
5,042
364
5,406
5,101
364
5,465
5,158
364
5,522
5,219
364
5,583
5,279
364
5,643
5,329
364
5,693
5,356
364
5,720
5,389
364
5,753
5,424
364
5,788
5,473
364
5,837
-240
-81
-61
-122
-191
-237
-268
-267
-240
-239
-246
Rapeseed
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
14/15
250 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
European Union Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
6,600
6,816
6,901
6,931
(Thousand Hectares)
7,021
7,106
7,153
7,198
7,254
7,310
7,357
3.23
3.11
3.13
3.15
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.17
3.19
3.21
3.23
3.25
3.27
3.29
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
21,325
1,974
23,299
21,214
1,949
23,163
21,615
1,963
23,578
21,848
1,989
23,836
(Thousand Metric Tons)
22,272
22,685
22,976
1,996
1,988
1,994
24,267
24,673
24,970
23,266
2,002
25,267
23,590
2,005
25,595
23,920
2,010
25,930
24,222
2,016
26,238
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
21,850
1,050
1,949
24,849
22,111
1,066
1,963
25,140
22,628
1,084
1,989
25,701
23,059
1,089
1,996
26,144
23,564
1,088
1,988
26,640
24,079
1,095
1,994
27,168
24,460
1,101
2,002
27,562
24,880
1,105
2,005
27,990
25,321
1,110
2,010
28,441
25,769
1,115
2,016
28,899
26,161
1,122
2,025
29,308
-1,550
-1,977
-2,123
-2,307
-2,373
-2,495
-2,591
-2,722
-2,846
-2,969
-3,071
Rapeseed Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
12,579
95
12,674
12,729
95
12,824
13,027
99
13,126
13,275
103
13,377
13,566
103
13,669
13,862
102
13,964
14,081
102
14,184
14,323
103
14,426
14,577
104
14,681
14,835
105
14,940
15,061
106
15,167
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
12,529
95
12,624
12,648
99
12,747
12,888
103
12,991
13,085
103
13,188
13,300
102
13,401
13,575
102
13,678
13,829
103
13,932
14,114
104
14,218
14,375
105
14,480
14,622
106
14,728
14,843
107
14,950
50
77
135
190
267
286
252
208
201
211
217
Rapeseed Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
9,068
376
9,444
9,176
489
9,665
9,391
491
9,882
9,570
493
10,063
9,779
494
10,273
9,993
493
10,486
10,151
494
10,645
10,325
495
10,820
10,509
495
11,003
10,694
495
11,189
10,857
495
11,352
Food Use
Biodiesel and Industrial Use
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,843
6,357
5
489
9,694
2,730
6,929
5
491
10,154
2,738
7,202
5
493
10,438
2,745
7,371
5
494
10,615
2,761
7,601
5
493
10,860
2,773
7,828
5
494
11,101
2,780
8,020
5
495
11,300
2,773
8,280
5
495
11,553
2,769
8,553
5
495
11,822
2,765
8,816
5
495
12,080
2,769
9,011
5
496
12,281
-250
-489
-556
-552
-587
-614
-655
-733
-819
-891
-929
Rapeseed
Total Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
14/15
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 251
Indian Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
6,500
6,641
6,834
6,972
(Thousand Hectares)
7,050
7,082
7,106
7,131
7,166
7,205
7,253
1.02
1.02
1.03
1.04
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.05
1.05
1.06
1.07
1.08
1.09
1.09
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
6,600
976
7,576
6,796
630
7,426
7,047
635
7,682
7,245
642
7,887
(Thousand Metric Tons)
7,381
7,472
7,552
645
648
652
8,026
8,120
8,204
7,636
655
8,291
7,729
657
8,387
7,829
660
8,489
7,939
662
8,601
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
6,200
761
630
7,591
6,309
497
635
7,441
6,491
565
642
7,697
6,528
729
645
7,902
6,528
865
648
8,041
6,565
917
652
8,135
6,680
884
655
8,219
6,845
803
657
8,306
6,987
755
660
8,402
7,104
738
662
8,504
7,181
768
666
8,616
-15
-15
-15
-15
-15
-15
-15
-15
-15
-15
-15
Rapeseed Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
3,709
223
3,932
3,774
212
3,986
3,883
212
4,095
3,905
212
4,117
3,905
212
4,117
3,928
212
4,140
3,996
212
4,208
4,095
212
4,307
4,180
212
4,392
4,250
212
4,462
4,296
212
4,508
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,920
212
3,132
3,002
212
3,214
3,041
212
3,253
3,043
212
3,255
3,057
212
3,269
3,078
212
3,290
3,091
212
3,303
3,105
212
3,317
3,112
212
3,324
3,121
212
3,333
3,126
212
3,338
800
772
842
862
848
850
906
990
1,067
1,129
1,170
Rapeseed Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,341
44
2,385
2,382
55
2,437
2,451
55
2,506
2,465
55
2,520
2,465
55
2,520
2,479
55
2,534
2,522
55
2,577
2,585
55
2,640
2,638
55
2,693
2,682
55
2,737
2,712
55
2,767
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,352
55
2,407
2,404
55
2,459
2,473
55
2,528
2,487
55
2,542
2,487
55
2,542
2,501
55
2,556
2,544
55
2,599
2,607
55
2,662
2,660
55
2,715
2,704
55
2,759
2,734
55
2,789
-22
-22
-22
-22
-22
-22
-22
-22
-22
-22
-22
Rapeseed
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
14/15
252 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Japanese Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1
1
1
1
1
1.03
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.04
1.05
1.06
1.07
1.08
1.09
1.10
1
73
74
1
74
75
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1
1
1
75
74
74
76
75
76
1
75
76
1
74
76
1
74
76
1
74
76
2,173
5
73
2,252
2,188
5
74
2,267
2,193
5
75
2,272
2,196
5
74
2,275
2,197
5
74
2,276
2,204
5
75
2,284
2,212
5
74
2,291
2,218
5
74
2,298
2,220
5
74
2,300
2,222
5
75
2,302
-2,200
-2,176
-2,192
-2,197
-2,199
-2,201
-2,208
-2,215
-2,222
-2,224
-2,226
Rapeseed Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,238
16
1,254
1,234
14
1,248
1,242
14
1,257
1,245
15
1,261
1,247
15
1,262
1,248
15
1,262
1,252
15
1,266
1,256
15
1,271
1,260
15
1,275
1,261
15
1,276
1,262
16
1,278
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,320
14
1,334
1,310
14
1,324
1,331
15
1,346
1,346
15
1,362
1,371
15
1,386
1,393
15
1,407
1,401
15
1,416
1,403
15
1,418
1,400
15
1,415
1,395
16
1,410
1,389
16
1,405
-80
-76
-90
-101
-123
-145
-150
-147
-140
-134
-128
Rapeseed Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
876
16
892
873
13
886
879
11
890
881
11
892
882
11
894
883
11
894
886
11
897
889
11
900
891
10
902
892
10
902
893
9
902
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
919
13
932
918
11
929
923
11
934
927
11
938
930
11
941
933
11
944
938
11
949
943
10
954
948
10
958
950
9
960
952
10
962
-40
-42
-44
-46
-48
-50
-52
-54
-56
-58
-60
Rapeseed
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
1
1
1
1
1.00
1.01
1.02
1
59
60
1
75
76
2,180
5
75
2,260
13/14
14/15
(Thousand Hectares)
1
1
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 253
Other CIS Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1,115
1,158
1,189
1,214
(Thousand Hectares)
1,238
1,261
1,284
1,307
1,330
1,354
1,377
1.32
1.34
1.36
1.38
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.40
1.42
1.44
1.45
1.47
1.49
1.51
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,475
267
1,742
1,553
235
1,788
1,617
236
1,853
1,674
238
1,911
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,730
1,786
1,842
239
240
241
1,968
2,026
2,083
1,899
242
2,141
1,958
242
2,201
2,019
243
2,261
2,079
243
2,322
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
920
40
235
1,195
939
42
236
1,217
961
44
238
1,242
981
45
239
1,265
1,000
47
240
1,286
1,018
48
241
1,307
1,038
49
242
1,329
1,058
50
242
1,350
1,077
52
243
1,371
1,095
53
243
1,392
1,113
54
244
1,411
547
571
611
646
682
719
754
791
829
870
911
Rapeseed Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
546
0
546
557
0
557
570
0
570
582
0
582
593
0
593
604
0
604
616
0
616
628
0
628
639
0
639
650
0
650
661
0
661
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
384
0
384
391
0
391
397
0
397
399
0
399
402
0
402
406
0
406
410
0
410
413
0
413
417
0
417
421
0
421
426
0
426
162
166
174
183
191
199
206
215
223
229
235
Rapeseed Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
358
21
379
365
11
376
374
11
385
382
11
393
389
11
400
396
11
407
404
11
415
412
11
423
419
11
430
426
11
437
433
11
444
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
268
11
279
249
11
260
250
11
261
250
11
261
251
11
262
252
11
263
253
11
264
253
11
264
254
11
265
254
11
265
255
11
266
100
117
124
132
138
144
151
158
165
172
178
Rapeseed
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
14/15
Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
254 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Ukrainian Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1,300
1,310
1,317
1,323
(Thousand Hectares)
1,329
1,335
1,341
1,346
1,352
1,358
1,365
1.46
1.51
1.56
1.61
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.66
1.71
1.76
1.81
1.86
1.91
1.96
1,900
2
1,902
1,979
8
1,987
2,057
8
2,065
2,133
8
2,141
(Thousand Metric Tons)
2,209
2,285
2,361
8
8
8
2,217
2,293
2,369
2,439
8
2,447
2,517
8
2,525
2,597
8
2,605
2,677
8
2,685
269
10
8
287
295
10
8
313
320
11
8
339
345
11
8
364
369
11
8
388
393
11
8
412
417
12
8
436
440
12
8
460
463
12
8
483
485
12
8
505
507
13
8
527
1,615
1,674
1,726
1,777
1,828
1,880
1,933
1,987
2,043
2,099
2,157
Rapeseed Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
152
0
152
166
0
166
181
0
181
195
0
195
209
0
209
222
0
222
235
0
235
248
0
248
261
0
261
274
0
274
286
0
286
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
102
0
102
104
0
104
105
0
105
106
0
106
107
0
107
107
0
107
108
0
108
108
0
108
109
0
109
109
0
109
110
0
110
50
63
76
89
102
115
128
140
153
165
176
104
7
111
114
4
118
124
4
128
133
4
137
143
4
147
152
4
156
161
4
165
170
4
174
179
4
182
187
4
191
196
4
200
67
4
71
67
4
71
67
4
71
67
4
71
67
4
71
67
4
71
67
4
71
67
4
71
67
4
71
67
4
71
67
4
71
40
47
57
66
75
85
94
103
112
120
129
Rapeseed
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Rapeseed Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
14/15
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 255
Rest-of-World Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Rapeseed
Area Harvested
696
705
718
725
Yield
0.91
0.92
0.94
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
632
87
719
651
43
694
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
749
758
767
777
785
0.95
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
0.97
0.98
0.99
1.01
1.02
1.04
1.05
673
43
717
690
44
734
(Thousand Metric Tons)
708
726
744
44
45
45
753
771
789
763
46
809
784
46
829
804
46
850
824
46
870
3,775
97
43
3,915
3,840
98
43
3,981
3,929
98
44
4,071
4,002
99
44
4,145
4,114
99
45
4,257
4,237
99
45
4,381
4,363
100
46
4,508
4,446
100
46
4,592
4,526
101
46
4,673
4,600
102
46
4,748
4,665
102
47
4,814
-3,137
-3,287
-3,354
-3,412
-3,505
-3,610
-3,718
-3,784
-3,843
-3,897
-3,944
Rapeseed Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,170
58
2,228
2,208
48
2,255
2,258
52
2,311
2,301
56
2,357
2,365
56
2,421
2,436
56
2,492
2,508
58
2,566
2,556
59
2,615
2,602
61
2,663
2,644
63
2,707
2,682
65
2,747
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
3,122
48
3,170
3,376
52
3,428
3,520
56
3,576
3,629
56
3,685
3,736
56
3,792
3,853
58
3,911
3,963
59
4,022
4,075
61
4,136
4,187
63
4,250
4,304
65
4,369
4,415
67
4,482
-942
-1,173
-1,265
-1,328
-1,372
-1,419
-1,456
-1,521
-1,587
-1,662
-1,735
Rapeseed Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,456
56
1,512
1,481
32
1,514
1,516
32
1,548
1,544
32
1,576
1,587
32
1,619
1,635
33
1,668
1,683
34
1,717
1,715
34
1,749
1,746
34
1,780
1,774
34
1,808
1,800
34
1,834
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,614
32
1,646
1,637
32
1,669
1,679
32
1,710
1,716
32
1,748
1,754
33
1,787
1,794
34
1,828
1,832
34
1,866
1,862
34
1,896
1,894
34
1,928
1,928
34
1,962
1,968
35
2,003
-133
-155
-163
-172
-168
-160
-149
-146
-149
-154
-169
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
(Thousand Hectares)
734
742
256 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Sunflower Seed and Sunflower Seed Products
The sunflower seed price decreased by 50% in 2008/09, plunging below the prices of both soybeans and rapeseed
for the first time since 1996/97. It increases in 2009/10 as supplies are tighter relative to that of other oilseeds.
Thereafter, the world price returns to its historical place above the prices of rapeseed and soybean. As in the case
of the seed, sunflower meal prices recover slightly in 2009/10 with the demand recovery from the livestock sector
and lower supplies. The price weakens in the outer years, pressured by strong crushing for oil purposes. The
sunflower oil price declined 49% in 2008/09 because of the economic slowdown and strong supplies. The price
recovers in 2009/10 and stays close to that of other vegetable oils for the remainder of the decade.
The world sunflower crop in 2009/10 declined by 10% from the record-breaking production of 2008/09. Despite
this reduction, it is the second-largest crop on record. This reduction is due to declines by almost every major
producer, in particular Argentina, Ukraine, and Other CIS countries. Thereafter production grows about 2%
annually throughout the outlook period, with strong expansion in these same three countries. Total net trade
expands 52%, to 0.9 mmt, over the next decade. Ukraine and Other CIS account for almost 67% of world net
exports by 2019/20. Argentina remains a small net exporter as most of the production is crushed domestically.
World sunflower meal production increases steadily, from the current level of 12.1 mmt to 14.1 mmt by 2019/20.
Consumption develops at an annual rate of 1.3% over the outlook period. World net trade in sunflower meal grows
by 8%, to 3.2 mmt. Similar development can be seen in the sunflower oil market. World production declined by
4% in 2009/10, but it expands by 17% by the end of the outlook. Net trade expands to 4.2 mmt. The average world
per capita consumption increases at a modest 0.3% annually over the next 10 years constrained by high prices. In
both sunflower meal and oil, Argentina and Ukraine are the dominant exporters, while the EU remains the most
significant buyer in the international market.
Argentine sunflower production decreased 20% in 2009/10 as area shifted to other crops, mostly soybeans. Area
recovers throughout the outlook, but Argentina’s market contribution remains at around 9% of global production.
More than 95% of production is used domestically by an export-oriented crushing industry. The differential export
tax encourages producers to export more derived products other than sunflower seeds. Argentina exports more
than 50% of its sunflower meal production and about 70% of its sunflower oil production throughout the baseline.
Argentina holds a 25% share of world sunflower oil net exports, and its place as the second-largest next exporter is
challenged by the Other CIS countries.
EU sunflower area increases only slightly in 2009/10, but this combined with lower yields leads to a 2%
decline in output. The consistent production expansion, which reaches 7.4mmt by 2019/20, is the result of yield
improvements, as area is expected to decline slightly. Domestic consumption growth of sunflower oil for food
and industrial uses outpaces the production expansion, generating a moderate increase in demand for imports.
Sunflower oil net imports grow 10% over the outlook period. The EU remains the leading sunflower meal and oil
net importer, accounting for 44% and 23% of these world markets, respectively, by 2019/20.
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 257
Sunflower Seed Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
-115
95
203
395
109
53
95
263
362
69
53
102
321
254
63
88
117
343
233
79
816
857
807
873
901
50
651
-14
185
672
-14
133
674
-14
146
727
-14
Total Net Imports
816
857
807
873
Price
CIF Lower Rhine
401
422
420
429
Net Exporters
Argentina
China
Other CIS *
Ukraine
United States
Total Net Exports †
Net Importers
European Union
Rest of World
Residual
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
76
158
348
217
93
60
164
350
216
96
48
169
353
213
98
32
171
354
227
96
17
172
356
246
94
895
906
899
895
895
901
137
764
-14
101
794
-14
95
811
-14
72
827
-14
57
838
-14
42
852
-14
40
861
-14
901
895
906
899
895
895
901
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
428
430
439
443
448
451
451
(Thousand Metric Tons)
88
80
136
149
351
346
233
223
80
83
* Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
† Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
Sunflower Meal Trade
Net Exporters
Argentina
Other CIS *
Ukraine
United States
Total Net Exports †
Net Importers
China
European Union
Rest of World
Residual
Total Net Imports
Price
CIF Rotterdam
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
686
472
1,800
7
569
401
1,906
7
609
390
1,901
7
629
413
1,902
7
(Thousand Metric Tons)
642
661
678
418
417
417
1,909
1,920
1,933
7
7
7
700
425
1,949
7
722
430
1,966
7
744
426
1,982
7
768
416
1,999
7
2,967
2,884
2,909
2,953
2,978
3,007
3,037
3,083
3,126
3,161
3,193
-2
1,520
1,340
107
-2
1,400
1,377
107
-2
1,437
1,364
107
-2
1,465
1,380
107
-2
1,428
1,442
107
-2
1,416
1,484
107
-2
1,402
1,528
107
-2
1,409
1,566
107
-2
1,410
1,610
107
-2
1,406
1,648
107
-2
1,404
1,682
107
2,967
2,884
2,909
2,953
2,978
3,007
3,037
3,083
3,126
3,161
3,193
181
188
184
190
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
188
188
188
187
185
184
183
* Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
† Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
258 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Sunflower Oil Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
880
452
2,000
71
727
422
2,100
63
783
462
2,109
54
807
505
2,116
51
(Thousand Metric Tons)
832
862
889
546
588
632
2,124
2,138
2,157
48
47
46
921
675
2,175
47
954
719
2,196
48
987
763
2,216
51
1,021
807
2,236
53
3,403
3,313
3,407
3,479
3,550
3,635
3,724
3,818
3,918
4,017
4,117
60
870
2,097
376
59
836
2,043
376
72
867
2,093
376
84
867
2,152
376
97
856
2,221
376
108
870
2,281
376
117
873
2,357
376
128
897
2,417
376
138
916
2,487
376
150
936
2,556
376
161
950
2,630
376
Total Net Imports
3,403
3,313
3,407
3,479
3,550
3,635
3,724
3,818
3,918
4,017
4,117
Price
FOB NW Europe
951
996
1,025
1,046
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
1,057
1,076
1,105
1,131
1,156
1,178
1,193
Net Exporters
Argentina
Other CIS *
Ukraine
United States
Total Net Exports †
Net Importers
China
European Union
Rest of World
Residual
14/15
* Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
† Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 259
World Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Sunflower Seed
Area Harvested
22,251
22,989
23,341
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
30,349
2,956
33,305
31,832
2,062
33,894
Crush
Other Use
Residual
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
27,553
3,704
-14
2,062
33,305
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
23,434
(Thousand Hectares)
23,567
23,691
23,827
23,983
24,129
24,282
24,431
32,493
2,044
34,537
32,890
2,076
34,966
(Thousand Metric Tons)
33,355
33,805
34,265
2,083
2,096
2,107
35,438
35,901
36,372
34,753
2,112
36,865
35,231
2,123
37,354
35,723
2,129
37,852
36,211
2,139
38,350
28,112
3,752
-14
2,044
33,894
28,656
3,819
-14
2,076
34,537
29,055
3,842
-14
2,083
34,966
29,480
3,876
-14
2,096
35,438
29,901
3,907
-14
2,107
35,901
30,341
3,933
-14
2,112
36,372
30,791
3,965
-14
2,123
36,865
31,246
3,993
-14
2,129
37,354
31,704
4,024
-14
2,139
37,852
32,161
4,054
-14
2,149
38,350
816
857
807
873
901
895
906
899
895
895
901
Sunflower Meal
Production
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Trade *
12,143
12,301
271
2,967
12,362
12,254
272
2,884
12,590
12,477
277
2,909
12,757
12,649
278
2,953
12,938
12,830
279
2,978
13,113
13,004
281
3,007
13,298
13,188
283
3,037
13,484
13,375
285
3,083
13,674
13,565
287
3,126
13,864
13,755
289
3,161
14,054
13,946
290
3,193
Sunflower Oil
Production
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Trade *
11,239
11,189
781
3,403
11,452
11,076
780
3,313
11,674
11,293
785
3,407
11,837
11,459
787
3,479
12,011
11,635
787
3,550
12,183
11,805
789
3,635
12,363
11,987
789
3,724
12,548
12,171
790
3,818
12,734
12,358
790
3,918
12,922
12,545
791
4,017
13,110
12,732
793
4,117
1.64
1.60
1.62
1.62
1.63
1.65
1.66
1.67
1.68
1.68
Trade *
Per Capita Consumption
* Excludes intraregional trade.
13/14
14/15
(Kilograms)
1.64
260 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Sunflower Seed
Area Harvested
791
794
801
798
Yield
1.74
1.65
1.66
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,377
224
1,601
1,309
191
1,501
Crush
Food
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
689
612
191
1,493
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
796
798
800
801
803
1.68
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.70
1.71
1.73
1.75
1.77
1.78
1.80
1,333
179
1,512
1,341
186
1,527
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,351
1,359
1,377
187
190
192
1,538
1,549
1,568
1,395
193
1,588
1,412
195
1,607
1,429
196
1,625
1,445
198
1,643
661
591
179
1,431
663
600
186
1,449
660
602
187
1,448
661
606
190
1,458
666
609
192
1,466
671
612
193
1,476
681
617
195
1,493
694
620
196
1,509
708
623
198
1,528
721
627
200
1,549
109
69
63
79
80
83
93
96
98
96
94
Sunflower Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
335
5
340
322
5
326
323
5
327
321
5
326
322
5
327
324
5
329
326
5
331
332
5
336
338
5
342
344
5
349
351
5
356
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
328
5
333
315
5
319
316
5
320
314
5
319
315
5
320
317
5
322
319
5
324
325
5
329
331
5
335
337
5
342
344
5
349
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
Sunflower Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
296
50
346
284
45
328
284
44
328
283
44
327
284
44
328
286
44
330
288
45
332
292
45
337
298
45
343
304
45
349
309
45
355
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
229
45
274
221
44
265
230
44
274
232
44
276
235
44
280
239
45
283
242
45
286
245
45
290
249
45
294
252
45
298
256
46
301
71
63
54
51
48
47
46
47
48
51
53
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
(Thousand Hectares)
796
793
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 261
Argentine Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1,400
1,729
1,816
1,862
(Thousand Hectares)
1,893
1,919
1,945
1,972
2,000
2,028
2,056
1.64
1.66
1.67
1.69
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.70
1.72
1.73
1.75
1.76
1.78
1.79
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,300
1,005
3,305
2,866
710
3,576
3,037
702
3,739
3,142
708
3,850
(Thousand Metric Tons)
3,221
3,295
3,368
710
714
717
3,931
4,009
4,084
3,444
717
4,161
3,523
719
4,242
3,602
718
4,320
3,682
719
4,401
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,600
110
710
3,420
2,697
124
702
3,523
2,850
129
708
3,686
2,921
131
710
3,762
2,996
133
714
3,843
3,079
134
717
3,930
3,156
136
717
4,009
3,246
137
719
4,101
3,337
138
718
4,194
3,429
140
719
4,288
3,523
141
719
4,384
-115
53
53
88
88
80
76
60
48
32
17
1,100
196
1,296
1,141
40
1,181
1,206
39
1,245
1,236
41
1,277
1,268
41
1,308
1,303
41
1,344
1,335
42
1,377
1,373
42
1,415
1,412
43
1,455
1,451
43
1,494
1,491
44
1,534
570
40
610
573
39
612
596
41
636
607
41
648
625
41
666
641
42
683
656
42
699
673
43
716
690
43
733
706
44
750
722
44
766
686
569
609
629
642
661
678
700
722
744
768
1,075
267
1,342
1,115
75
1,190
1,178
74
1,252
1,208
74
1,282
1,239
74
1,313
1,273
75
1,348
1,305
75
1,380
1,342
75
1,417
1,380
75
1,454
1,418
74
1,492
1,457
74
1,531
387
75
462
389
74
463
395
74
470
401
74
475
406
75
481
411
75
486
416
75
491
421
75
496
426
74
500
431
74
505
436
74
510
880
727
783
807
832
862
889
921
954
987
1,021
Sunflower Seed
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Sunflower Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Sunflower Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
14/15
262 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Chinese Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Sunflower Seed
Area Harvested
870
862
859
861
Yield
1.72
1.78
1.79
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,500
0
1,500
1,534
0
1,534
Crush
Food Use
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
655
655
95
0
1,405
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
871
870
868
864
860
1.80
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.81
1.82
1.83
1.84
1.85
1.86
1.87
1,538
0
1,538
1,550
0
1,550
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,571
1,585
1,595
0
0
0
1,571
1,585
1,595
1,601
0
1,601
1,606
0
1,606
1,608
0
1,608
1,608
0
1,608
673
673
93
0
1,439
662
681
93
0
1,436
654
687
93
0
1,434
646
696
93
0
1,435
641
702
94
0
1,436
637
706
94
0
1,437
633
710
94
0
1,438
629
715
94
0
1,437
624
719
93
0
1,437
620
724
93
0
1,436
95
95
102
117
136
149
158
164
169
171
172
Sunflower Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
359
0
359
369
0
369
363
0
363
358
0
358
354
0
354
351
0
351
349
0
349
347
0
347
345
0
345
342
0
342
340
0
340
Feed Use
Industrial Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
317
40
0
357
325
42
0
367
317
44
0
361
310
46
0
356
304
48
0
352
299
50
0
349
295
53
0
347
290
55
0
345
286
57
0
343
281
59
0
340
276
62
0
338
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Sunflower Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
234
0
234
240
0
240
236
0
236
234
0
234
231
0
231
229
0
229
228
0
228
226
0
226
225
0
225
223
0
223
221
0
221
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
294
0
294
299
0
299
308
0
308
318
0
318
328
0
328
337
0
337
345
0
345
354
0
354
363
0
363
373
0
373
382
0
382
-60
-59
-72
-84
-97
-108
-117
-128
-138
-150
-161
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
(Thousand Hectares)
868
871
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 263
European Union Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
3,915
3,801
3,845
3,828
(Thousand Hectares)
3,840
3,851
3,849
3,847
3,843
3,839
3,830
1.75
1.77
1.79
1.80
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.82
1.84
1.86
1.88
1.90
1.92
1.94
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
6,840
762
7,602
6,714
652
7,366
6,865
654
7,520
6,909
667
7,576
(Thousand Metric Tons)
7,005
7,098
7,168
669
668
670
7,674
7,765
7,838
7,240
672
7,912
7,306
676
7,982
7,371
679
8,050
7,429
683
8,112
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
6,150
850
652
7,652
6,051
845
654
7,551
6,120
865
667
7,652
6,184
868
669
7,721
6,274
870
668
7,811
6,321
876
670
7,867
6,381
880
672
7,933
6,422
886
676
7,983
6,469
891
679
8,039
6,513
897
683
8,092
6,562
903
687
8,152
-50
-185
-133
-146
-137
-101
-95
-72
-57
-42
-40
Sunflower Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
3,357
305
3,662
3,303
200
3,503
3,341
201
3,542
3,376
204
3,580
3,425
204
3,628
3,450
204
3,654
3,483
204
3,688
3,505
205
3,711
3,531
206
3,737
3,555
207
3,762
3,582
208
3,790
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
4,982
200
5,182
4,702
201
4,903
4,775
204
4,979
4,841
204
5,045
4,853
204
5,057
4,866
204
5,070
4,884
205
5,090
4,914
206
5,120
4,940
207
5,147
4,960
208
5,169
4,985
209
5,194
-1,520
-1,400
-1,437
-1,465
-1,428
-1,416
-1,402
-1,409
-1,410
-1,406
-1,404
Sunflower Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,443
140
2,583
2,404
232
2,636
2,431
234
2,665
2,457
239
2,696
2,492
240
2,732
2,511
238
2,749
2,535
238
2,773
2,551
239
2,790
2,570
240
2,810
2,587
241
2,828
2,607
242
2,849
Food Use
Biodiesel and Industrial Use
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,899
270
52
232
3,453
2,888
350
0
234
3,471
2,929
364
0
239
3,532
2,950
373
0
240
3,563
2,968
383
0
238
3,589
2,986
394
0
238
3,619
3,002
406
0
239
3,647
3,025
422
0
240
3,687
3,045
439
0
241
3,726
3,066
456
0
242
3,764
3,085
471
0
244
3,799
-870
-836
-867
-867
-856
-870
-873
-897
-916
-936
-950
Sunflower Seed
Total Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
14/15
264 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Other CIS Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
6,470
6,685
6,839
6,937
(Thousand Hectares)
7,026
7,105
7,188
7,275
7,360
7,443
7,525
1.12
1.16
1.17
1.18
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.19
1.20
1.21
1.22
1.23
1.24
1.25
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
7,250
604
7,854
7,762
284
8,046
8,006
285
8,291
8,188
288
8,475
(Thousand Metric Tons)
8,359
8,521
8,689
289
292
294
8,648
8,813
8,983
8,864
295
9,159
9,037
296
9,333
9,210
297
9,507
9,383
298
9,682
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
6,620
747
284
7,651
6,724
774
285
7,783
6,901
782
288
7,970
7,057
787
289
8,133
7,213
793
292
8,297
7,374
798
294
8,466
7,538
802
295
8,635
7,706
807
296
8,808
7,872
811
297
8,980
8,040
815
298
9,153
8,206
820
300
9,325
203
263
321
343
351
346
348
350
353
354
356
Sunflower Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,477
16
2,493
2,516
15
2,531
2,582
15
2,597
2,641
15
2,656
2,699
16
2,714
2,759
16
2,775
2,820
16
2,836
2,883
16
2,899
2,945
16
2,962
3,008
17
3,025
3,070
17
3,087
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,006
15
2,021
2,115
15
2,130
2,191
15
2,207
2,228
16
2,243
2,281
16
2,296
2,342
16
2,358
2,404
16
2,420
2,459
16
2,475
2,516
17
2,532
2,582
17
2,599
2,654
17
2,671
472
401
390
413
418
417
417
425
430
426
416
Sunflower Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,738
99
2,837
2,758
63
2,821
2,831
63
2,894
2,895
64
2,959
2,959
64
3,023
3,025
65
3,090
3,092
65
3,158
3,161
65
3,227
3,229
66
3,295
3,298
66
3,364
3,366
66
3,432
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,322
63
2,385
2,336
63
2,399
2,369
64
2,433
2,390
64
2,454
2,413
65
2,477
2,437
65
2,502
2,460
65
2,526
2,486
66
2,551
2,510
66
2,576
2,535
66
2,601
2,559
66
2,625
452
422
462
505
546
588
632
675
719
763
807
Sunflower Seed
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
14/15
Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 265
Ukrainian Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
4,100
4,219
4,188
4,153
(Thousand Hectares)
4,138
4,122
4,111
4,105
4,101
4,109
4,120
1.49
1.52
1.52
1.54
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.55
1.57
1.59
1.60
1.62
1.64
1.65
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
6,100
29
6,129
6,430
30
6,460
6,368
31
6,398
6,383
32
6,415
(Thousand Metric Tons)
6,428
6,470
6,520
33
34
35
6,461
6,504
6,555
6,579
35
6,614
6,639
36
6,675
6,719
36
6,755
6,805
36
6,841
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
5,637
67
30
5,734
5,999
68
31
6,098
6,043
69
32
6,144
6,080
69
33
6,182
6,124
70
34
6,228
6,176
70
35
6,281
6,232
71
35
6,338
6,292
71
36
6,399
6,355
72
36
6,462
6,420
72
36
6,528
6,486
72
37
6,595
395
362
254
233
233
223
217
216
213
227
246
2,351
4
2,355
2,502
5
2,507
2,520
5
2,526
2,536
6
2,542
2,554
6
2,561
2,576
7
2,583
2,599
7
2,606
2,624
8
2,632
2,650
8
2,658
2,678
8
2,685
2,705
8
2,713
550
5
555
596
5
601
619
6
625
633
6
640
645
7
652
656
7
663
665
8
673
674
8
682
684
8
692
695
8
703
706
8
714
1,800
1,906
1,901
1,902
1,909
1,920
1,933
1,949
1,966
1,982
1,999
2,386
211
2,597
2,539
162
2,701
2,558
162
2,720
2,573
161
2,735
2,592
161
2,753
2,614
161
2,775
2,638
162
2,799
2,663
161
2,824
2,690
160
2,850
2,717
159
2,876
2,745
158
2,903
435
162
597
440
162
601
449
161
611
458
161
619
468
161
629
476
162
637
481
161
642
488
160
648
495
159
654
502
158
660
510
157
668
2,000
2,100
2,109
2,116
2,124
2,138
2,157
2,175
2,196
2,216
2,236
Sunflower Seed
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Sunflower Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Sunflower Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
14/15
266 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Rest-of-World Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
4,705
4,899
4,994
4,994
(Thousand Hectares)
5,006
5,031
5,068
5,114
5,157
5,198
5,237
1.06
1.06
1.07
1.08
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.08
1.09
1.09
1.10
1.11
1.11
1.12
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
4,982
332
5,314
5,216
195
5,411
5,347
192
5,539
5,377
195
5,572
(Thousand Metric Tons)
5,420
5,478
5,548
195
198
200
5,615
5,676
5,748
5,629
200
5,830
5,707
202
5,909
5,784
203
5,987
5,858
205
6,063
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
5,202
568
195
5,964
5,306
584
192
6,083
5,418
600
195
6,213
5,498
606
195
6,300
5,566
615
198
6,380
5,645
625
200
6,469
5,726
633
200
6,559
5,812
644
202
6,657
5,890
653
203
6,747
5,971
664
205
6,839
6,043
674
207
6,924
-651
-672
-674
-727
-764
-794
-811
-827
-838
-852
-861
Sunflower Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,164
10
2,174
2,209
6
2,216
2,255
6
2,262
2,289
7
2,296
2,317
7
2,324
2,350
7
2,357
2,384
7
2,391
2,419
7
2,427
2,452
7
2,459
2,486
7
2,493
2,516
7
2,523
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
3,508
6
3,514
3,586
6
3,593
3,620
7
3,626
3,669
7
3,676
3,760
7
3,766
3,834
7
3,841
3,912
7
3,919
3,986
7
3,993
4,062
7
4,069
4,133
7
4,141
4,197
8
4,205
-1,340
-1,377
-1,364
-1,380
-1,442
-1,484
-1,528
-1,566
-1,610
-1,648
-1,682
Sunflower Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,067
340
2,407
2,111
204
2,315
2,155
204
2,359
2,187
203
2,391
2,214
204
2,418
2,246
204
2,450
2,278
205
2,483
2,312
205
2,517
2,343
205
2,548
2,375
205
2,580
2,404
205
2,609
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
4,301
204
4,505
4,154
204
4,358
4,248
203
4,452
4,339
204
4,542
4,435
204
4,639
4,526
205
4,731
4,635
205
4,840
4,729
205
4,934
4,830
205
5,036
4,930
205
5,136
5,034
206
5,240
-2,097
-2,043
-2,093
-2,152
-2,221
-2,281
-2,357
-2,417
-2,487
-2,556
-2,630
Sunflower Seed
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
14/15
268 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Palm Oil and Palm Kernel Products
Consistent with the trend of other vegetable oils, demand recovery pushes the world palm oil price up by about
10% in 2009/10 after the steep drop in 2008/09. Over the remaining projection period, the palm oil price keeps
increasing along with the other vegetable oil prices and reaches $957 per mt by 2019/20. Given the strong price
increases expected for vegetable oils, palm oil remains the lowest-cost and most traded oil despite a 38% price
increase over the outlook period.
Malaysia and Indonesia are the major producers of palm oil and related products, together accounting for about
88% of total world palm oil production. Indonesia surpassed Malaysia as the world’s leading producer in 2005/06.
That lead increases throughout the projection period, as Malaysia is more constrained in its ability to expand
palm areas. Thus, yield improvement is the key factor for Malaysia’s production growth. Malaysia’s palm oil
production increases to 23.4 mmt in 2019/20, and net exports reach 18.9 mmt. Driven by the firming world price,
Indonesia’s palm harvested area increases by 22%, raising its production to 28.5 mmt over the baseline. Its net
exports increase more than 46%, reaching 22.8 mmt by 2019/20. Although both countries have ambitious plans
for promoting their biodiesel industries, the increasing palm oil price and repeated delays in the implementation of
domestic mandates slow the development of this sector.
Although world exports are dominated by two countries, importers are diverse. Major importers of palm oil
include China, India, and the EU. The leading palm oil consumer, China, depends heavily on imports to meet
its demand. The country’s palm oil net imports reach 9.7 mmt by 2019/20, through an average annual growth of
4.4% over the decade. Palm oil used for food consumption accounts for 56% of China’s total palm oil domestic
demand over the outlook period. China’s per capita food use consumption increases by 25% over the period,
reaching 3.93 kg by 2019/20. While significant, this growth pales in comparison to the expected 39% growth in
per capita soybean oil consumption.
For the second straight season, India surpassed China in the quantities of palm oil imported and consumed. This is
likely to be only a temporary change, and China is expected to resume its leading position next season. The large
increase in Indian vegetable oil net imports is in part due to the significant reduction of tariffs (and for some oils
such as palm, elimination of tariffs). In 2009/10 the country consumed 6.8 mmt of palm oil, primarily supported
by imports. Population and income growth causes palm oil consumption in India to expand, driving imports up to
8.1 mmt by 2019/20. The EU also depends on imports to maintain its palm oil consumption, which grows about
16% over the projection period. Because rapeseed oil, the major vegetable oil in the EU, is primarily used for
biodiesel production, the low-cost palm oil becomes a preferred substitute for other industrial uses.
World palm kernel oil production expands 32%, and net trade reaches 2.2 mmt over the baseline. Indonesia is by
far the largest net exporter by 2019/20, supplying over 90% of world net exports. The remainder is supplied by
Malaysia, which consumes over 90% of its production domestically. The EU, accounting for more than 32% of
world net imports, maintains its position as the dominant net importer of palm kernel oil. However, with 29% of
world net imports, China challenges that position by the end of the outlook.
The EU is also the leading importer of world palm kernel meal, accounting for 53% of world imports in 2009/10.
However, the share of EU net imports declines to 44% over the projection period, as demand expansion is
hampered by the large domestic availability of rapeseed meal from the biodiesel-induced crush demand.
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 269
Palm Sector Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
15,100
15,660
15,227
16,570
15,478
17,320
30,760
31,797
6,299
4,620
6,650
12,572
619
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
15,765
18,026
(Thousand Metric Tons)
16,112
16,504
16,936
18,701
19,373
20,048
17,392
20,726
17,865
21,412
18,354
22,104
18,854
22,795
32,797
33,790
34,814
35,877
36,984
38,118
39,277
40,458
41,649
6,603
4,735
6,511
13,329
619
6,881
4,832
6,681
13,785
619
7,184
4,896
6,839
14,252
619
7,518
4,929
7,005
14,742
619
7,856
4,994
7,180
15,229
619
8,204
5,070
7,364
15,727
619
8,562
5,150
7,553
16,234
619
8,933
5,229
7,739
16,756
619
9,318
5,306
7,925
17,290
619
9,708
5,376
8,107
17,838
619
30,760
31,797
32,797
33,790
34,814
35,877
36,984
38,118
39,277
40,458
41,649
2,250
2,150
2,323
2,253
2,398
2,268
2,472
2,299
2,541
2,334
2,609
2,375
2,678
2,421
2,747
2,468
2,816
2,517
2,887
2,568
2,958
2,619
4,400
4,576
4,666
4,771
4,875
4,984
5,099
5,215
5,333
5,455
5,577
2,350
1,912
138
2,389
2,049
138
2,386
2,141
138
2,392
2,241
138
2,391
2,346
138
2,400
2,446
138
2,413
2,548
138
2,429
2,648
138
2,446
2,749
138
2,467
2,850
138
2,489
2,949
138
4,400
4,576
4,666
4,771
4,875
4,984
5,099
5,215
5,333
5,455
5,577
1,498
225
1,519
221
1,590
207
1,657
189
1,720
174
1,781
165
1,841
160
1,901
155
1,964
150
2,028
145
2,092
141
1,723
1,740
1,796
1,847
1,894
1,946
2,001
2,056
2,114
2,173
2,232
450
623
589
61
464
619
597
61
480
631
624
61
497
639
649
61
516
644
673
61
535
654
696
61
555
665
720
61
575
676
744
61
597
686
769
61
619
697
795
61
643
707
822
61
1,723
1,740
1,796
1,847
1,894
1,946
2,001
2,056
2,114
2,173
2,232
696
716
749
776
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
799
824
851
877
904
931
957
Palm Oil
Net Exporters
Malaysia
Indonesia
Total Net Exports *
Net Importers
China
European Union
India
Rest of World
Residual
Total Net Imports
Palm Kernel Meal
Net Exporters
Indonesia
Malaysia
Total Net Exports *
Net Importers
European Union
Rest of World
Residual
Total Net Imports
Palm Kernel Oil
Net Exporters
Indonesia
Malaysia
Total Net Exports *
Net Importers
China
European Union
Rest of World
Residual
Total Net Imports
CIF Rotterdam Prices
Palm Oil
* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
270 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Palm Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
45,132
44,330
30,760
46,113
45,487
31,797
47,420
46,812
32,797
48,743
48,126
33,790
6.49
6.59
6.71
6.82
Palm Kernel Meal
Production
Consumption
Trade *
6,389
6,238
4,400
6,580
6,446
4,576
6,767
6,626
4,666
Palm Kernel Oil
Production
Consumption
Trade *
5,305
5,308
1,723
5,481
5,422
1,740
0.78
0.79
Palm Oil
Production
Consumption
Trade *
Per Capita Consumption
Per Capita Consumption
* Excludes intraregional trade.
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Thousand Metric Tons)
50,126
51,549
53,021
49,503
50,926
52,400
34,814
35,877
36,984
54,534
53,912
38,118
56,081
55,458
39,277
57,662
57,038
40,458
59,264
58,639
41,649
7.20
7.34
7.48
7.62
7.76
6,956
6,815
4,771
(Thousand Metric Tons)
7,153
7,354
7,560
7,010
7,212
7,418
4,875
4,984
5,099
7,771
7,629
5,215
7,985
7,843
5,333
8,201
8,059
5,455
8,419
8,277
5,577
5,636
5,575
1,796
5,793
5,730
1,847
5,956
5,893
1,894
6,295
6,232
2,001
6,470
6,407
2,056
6,647
6,584
2,114
6,828
6,764
2,173
7,009
6,945
2,232
0.80
0.81
0.83
0.86
0.87
0.89
0.90
0.92
6.95
14/15
(Kilograms)
7.07
6,123
6,060
1,946
(Kilograms)
0.84
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 271
Chinese Palm Sector Supply and Utilization
Palm Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
0
499
499
0
468
468
0
468
468
0
468
468
(Thousand Metric Tons)
0
0
0
468
468
468
468
468
468
0
468
468
0
468
468
0
468
468
0
468
468
6,330
468
6,798
6,603
468
7,071
6,881
468
7,349
7,184
468
7,652
7,518
468
7,986
7,856
468
8,324
8,204
468
8,672
8,562
468
9,030
8,933
468
9,401
9,318
468
9,786
9,708
468
10,176
-6,299
-6,603
-6,881
-7,184
-7,518
-7,856
-8,204
-8,562
-8,933
-9,318
-9,708
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Thousand Metric Tons)
0
0
0
530
528
528
530
528
528
0
528
528
0
528
528
0
528
528
0
528
528
European Union Palm Sector Supply and Utilization
Palm Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Palm Kernel Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Palm Kernel Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
0
555
555
0
527
527
0
529
529
0
530
530
4,648
527
5,175
4,733
529
5,262
4,830
530
5,360
4,896
530
5,426
4,932
528
5,459
4,994
528
5,521
5,070
528
5,598
5,150
528
5,678
5,229
528
5,757
5,306
528
5,834
5,376
528
5,904
-4,620
-4,735
-4,832
-4,896
-4,929
-4,994
-5,070
-5,150
-5,229
-5,306
-5,376
14
0
14
14
0
14
14
0
14
14
0
14
14
0
14
14
0
14
14
0
14
14
0
14
14
0
14
14
0
14
14
0
14
2,364
0
2,364
2,403
0
2,403
2,400
0
2,400
2,405
0
2,405
2,405
0
2,405
2,414
0
2,414
2,427
0
2,427
2,443
0
2,443
2,460
0
2,460
2,481
0
2,481
2,503
0
2,503
-2,350
-2,389
-2,386
-2,392
-2,391
-2,400
-2,413
-2,429
-2,446
-2,467
-2,489
11
19
30
11
27
38
11
27
38
11
28
39
11
28
39
11
27
38
11
26
37
11
26
37
11
26
37
11
26
37
11
26
37
626
27
653
629
27
656
642
28
670
650
28
678
657
27
683
665
26
691
676
26
702
687
26
713
697
26
724
708
26
734
718
26
744
-623
-619
-631
-639
-644
-654
-665
-676
-686
-697
-707
272 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Indian Palm Sector Supply and Utilization
Palm Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
50
489
539
51
389
440
53
390
442
54
390
445
(Thousand Metric Tons)
56
59
61
390
390
391
447
449
451
63
391
454
65
391
457
68
391
459
70
392
462
6,800
389
7,189
6,561
390
6,950
6,733
390
7,123
6,894
390
7,284
7,061
390
7,452
7,238
391
7,629
7,424
391
7,815
7,616
391
8,007
7,804
391
8,196
7,992
392
8,384
8,177
392
8,569
-6,650
-6,511
-6,681
-6,839
-7,005
-7,180
-7,364
-7,553
-7,739
-7,925
-8,107
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Thousand Metric Tons)
23,966
24,705
25,449
833
834
835
24,799
25,539
26,284
26,202
835
27,037
26,966
836
27,801
27,742
836
28,578
28,526
837
29,363
Indonesian Palm Sector Supply and Utilization
Palm Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Palm Kernel Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Palm Kernel Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
20,750
745
21,495
21,647
830
22,477
22,453
836
23,289
23,222
835
24,056
5,005
830
5,835
5,071
836
5,907
5,135
835
5,969
5,198
833
6,031
5,264
834
6,098
5,331
835
6,166
5,401
835
6,236
5,475
836
6,311
5,553
836
6,390
5,637
837
6,474
5,731
838
6,569
15,660
16,570
17,320
18,026
18,701
19,373
20,048
20,726
21,412
22,104
22,795
2,800
45
2,845
2,879
45
2,924
3,000
45
3,045
3,116
45
3,161
3,229
45
3,274
3,340
45
3,385
3,451
45
3,496
3,563
46
3,608
3,676
46
3,721
3,789
46
3,836
3,904
46
3,950
550
45
595
556
45
601
603
45
647
644
45
689
687
45
733
730
45
776
773
46
819
816
46
862
859
46
905
902
46
949
946
47
992
2,250
2,323
2,398
2,472
2,541
2,609
2,678
2,747
2,816
2,887
2,958
2,300
153
2,453
2,365
135
2,500
2,465
135
2,599
2,560
135
2,695
2,652
134
2,787
2,743
135
2,878
2,835
135
2,969
2,927
135
3,061
3,019
135
3,154
3,113
135
3,247
3,207
135
3,342
820
135
955
846
135
981
875
135
1,010
903
134
1,038
932
135
1,067
963
135
1,097
994
135
1,128
1,025
135
1,160
1,055
135
1,190
1,085
135
1,219
1,115
135
1,250
1,498
1,519
1,590
1,657
1,720
1,781
1,841
1,901
1,964
2,028
2,092
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 273
Malaysian Palm Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
18,500
1,300
19,800
18,578
1,560
20,138
18,950
1,560
20,510
19,378
1,557
20,935
3,140
1,560
4,700
3,351
1,560
4,911
3,475
1,557
5,033
3,609
1,561
5,170
3,740
1,567
5,307
3,871
1,572
5,442
15,100
15,227
15,478
15,765
16,112
2,535
70
2,605
2,598
83
2,681
2,641
79
2,720
2,691
82
2,773
372
83
455
349
79
428
371
82
452
2,150
2,253
Palm Kernel Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,140
230
2,370
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Palm Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Palm Kernel Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Thousand Metric Tons)
19,858
20,379
20,939
1,561
1,567
1,572
21,420
21,946
22,511
21,528
1,575
23,103
22,136
1,579
23,715
22,763
1,583
24,346
23,399
1,588
24,987
4,000
1,575
5,575
4,132
1,579
5,710
4,267
1,583
5,850
4,404
1,588
5,992
4,541
1,592
6,133
16,504
16,936
17,392
17,865
18,354
18,854
2,748
85
2,832
2,810
88
2,898
2,876
92
2,968
2,945
95
3,040
3,016
99
3,115
3,089
102
3,192
3,163
106
3,269
390
85
474
410
88
499
431
92
523
451
95
547
473
99
572
496
102
598
518
106
624
540
109
649
2,268
2,299
2,334
2,375
2,421
2,468
2,517
2,568
2,619
2,193
213
2,406
2,230
213
2,443
2,272
214
2,486
2,320
217
2,537
2,372
221
2,592
2,428
223
2,651
2,486
226
2,712
2,546
228
2,774
2,608
230
2,838
2,670
233
2,903
1,932
213
2,145
1,972
213
2,185
2,022
214
2,236
2,080
217
2,297
2,142
221
2,362
2,204
223
2,427
2,266
226
2,491
2,329
228
2,557
2,394
230
2,624
2,460
233
2,693
2,527
235
2,762
225
221
207
189
174
165
160
155
150
145
141
274 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Rest-of-World Palm Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
5,832
1,121
6,953
5,837
1,118
6,955
5,964
1,117
7,081
6,090
1,108
7,198
(Thousand Metric Tons)
6,245
6,406
6,572
1,104
1,103
1,101
7,349
7,509
7,673
6,741
1,099
7,841
6,914
1,097
8,011
7,089
1,096
8,186
7,268
1,095
8,363
18,407
1,118
19,525
19,168
1,117
20,285
19,758
1,108
20,866
20,346
1,104
21,450
20,988
1,103
22,091
21,636
1,101
22,738
22,301
1,099
23,400
22,977
1,097
24,074
23,671
1,096
24,767
24,380
1,095
25,475
25,107
1,094
26,201
-12,572
-13,329
-13,785
-14,252
-14,742
-15,229
-15,727
-16,234
-16,756
-17,290
-17,838
Palm Kernel Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,040
0
1,040
1,088
0
1,088
1,111
0
1,111
1,134
0
1,134
1,162
0
1,162
1,191
0
1,191
1,220
0
1,220
1,249
1
1,250
1,279
1
1,280
1,309
2
1,310
1,339
2
1,341
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,952
0
2,952
3,138
0
3,138
3,253
0
3,253
3,376
0
3,376
3,508
0
3,508
3,637
0
3,637
3,767
1
3,768
3,897
1
3,898
4,027
2
4,029
4,158
2
4,160
4,288
2
4,290
-1,912
-2,049
-2,141
-2,241
-2,346
-2,446
-2,548
-2,648
-2,749
-2,850
-2,949
854
112
966
912
75
987
931
73
1,003
950
71
1,021
973
70
1,043
997
70
1,067
1,022
69
1,091
1,046
69
1,115
1,071
68
1,139
1,096
68
1,164
1,121
68
1,189
1,480
75
1,555
1,511
73
1,583
1,557
71
1,628
1,600
70
1,670
1,646
70
1,716
1,693
69
1,762
1,742
69
1,811
1,791
68
1,859
1,841
68
1,909
1,892
68
1,959
1,943
68
2,010
-589
-597
-624
-649
-673
-696
-720
-744
-769
-795
-822
Palm Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Palm Kernel Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
14/15
276 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Peanuts and Peanut Products
Peanuts have a great number of cultivars. The four major cultivar groups out of thousands of peanut varieties
are Runner, Virginia, Spanish, and Valencia. Each type has a distinct size and flavor. The CIF price in Rotterdam
for U.S. Runners, 40/50, is selected as the representative world price. As with other oilseeds, the peanut price
declined sharply in 2008/09. The price declines by 3% in 2009/10 as demand, especially for crush, softens.
The price then starts an ascending path throughout the rest of the baseline. The projected price stays above the
historical levels.
The peanut meal price declines by 4% in 2009/10 and follows the trend of the other protein meal prices
throughout the baseline. Although peanut oil is only a limited substitute for other major vegetable oils for some
end uses, its price is expected to follow the general trends in world vegetable oil prices, with the exception of a
decline in 2009/10. The peanut oil price declines 13% in 2009/10 but then recovers and reaches $1,509/mt by the
end of the outlook period.
Because of price decreases, world peanut area declined by almost 7% in 2009/10. This, combined with a 3.2%
reduction in yields, leads to a 10% decrease in production. Production increases by 7.6% over the baseline, driven
primarily by yield improvements as area remains stagnant for the rest of the outlook. World trade in peanuts and
peanut products is modest compared with total production. Most peanut production supplies the local population
and responds to domestic demand. Less than 6% of world peanut, peanut oil, and peanut meal production is traded
internationally.
China is expected to continue a downward trend in the area devoted to the production of peanuts. As yield growth
is not able to outpace the area reduction, production declines throughout the outlook. However, China remains
the leading producer and generates 12.6.0 mmt by 2019/20. More than half of Chinese peanut output is crushed
while the remainder is consumed directly as food. The proportion of peanuts crushed is expected to increase over
the projection period. China is self-sufficient in peanut meal and oil consumption, with very small net trading
positions during the outlook.
India has a larger peanut harvested area than any other country. The area is projected to remain stagnant over the
outlook, which is a break from the declining trend observed in the previous decade. Modest yield gains contribute
to the reversal of the production trend. The Indian peanut crushing industry is domestically oriented, and trade is
negligible. About 75% of the peanuts grown in India are processed for oil to meet the growing domestic demand.
Population and income growth stimulates an average growth of 18% in peanut oil consumption over the outlook
period. Because of expansion of the Indian livestock and dairy industries, peanut meal consumption increases
20.4% by 2019/20.
Argentina’s peanut area declines in 2009/10 as a result of relatively low prices. However, it is expected to resume
its growth next season and expand modestly over the baseline. Yield improvements combine with the area
increase to raise production by 17% by 2019/20. Argentina is the dominant peanut oil net exporter and second
only to China in the peanut market. However, the gap is reduced considerably in the later years of the outlook.
The EU is the most significant importer of peanuts and peanut oil. The EU’s share of total world peanut net
imports accounts for about 46% in 2009/10 and grows to 55% over the next decade. The EU imports almost 75%
of all internationally traded peanut oil in 2009/10, and this level remains stable over the outlook period.
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 277
Peanut Sector Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
450
690
190
313
417
726
183
265
426
738
179
276
434
700
177
277
1,643
1,590
1,619
1,588
1,560
125
750
125
448
195
130
767
138
360
195
131
777
139
377
195
132
782
139
340
195
1,643
1,590
1,619
10
75
5
-17
10
78
5
-21
105
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
459
621
170
279
468
603
167
280
477
587
164
283
486
569
162
284
496
553
159
284
1,540
1,528
1,519
1,511
1,501
1,492
133
782
140
310
195
132
787
142
285
195
132
793
145
263
195
134
799
148
243
195
135
805
152
224
195
136
811
155
205
195
137
817
159
184
195
1,588
1,560
1,540
1,528
1,519
1,511
1,501
1,492
10
76
5
-22
10
74
5
-23
10
73
5
-23
10
71
5
-23
10
69
5
-24
10
67
5
-23
10
65
5
-23
10
63
5
-23
10
61
5
-22
109
106
104
103
101
99
97
95
93
91
58
30
-15
59
28
-15
56
28
-15
54
28
-15
51
28
-15
49
28
-15
47
28
-15
46
28
-15
44
28
-15
42
28
-15
41
28
-15
105
109
106
104
103
101
99
97
95
93
91
49
4
20
57
50
4
20
55
49
3
20
53
50
2
20
54
50
1
20
54
50
1
19
55
50
0
19
56
51
0
19
57
51
-1
19
57
51
-1
19
57
52
-1
19
57
130
128
125
125
125
125
126
127
127
127
127
94
31
5
93
30
5
94
26
5
94
26
5
94
26
5
94
26
5
95
26
5
95
26
5
95
26
5
96
26
5
96
25
5
130
128
125
125
125
125
126
127
127
127
127
Peanuts
Net Exporters
Argentina
China
India
United States
Total Net Exports *
Net Importers
Canada
European Union
Mexico
Rest of World
Residual
Total Net Imports
(Thousand Metric Tons)
442
451
665
638
175
172
278
279
Peanut Meal
Net Exporters
Argentina
India
United States
Rest of World
Total Net Exports *
Net Importers
China
European Union
Residual
Total Net Imports
Peanut Oil
Net Exporters
Argentina
China
India
Rest of World
Total Net Exports *
Net Importers
European Union
United States
Residual
Total Net Imports
Prices
Peanut, U.S. Runners 40/50
CIF Rotterdam
Peanut Meal
48/50%, Southeast Mills FO
Peanut Oil, CIF Rotterdam
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
1,168
1,142
1,160
1,181
1,194
1,209
1,225
1,239
1,249
1,263
1,269
138
1,159
129
1,232
129
1,267
130
1,300
131
1,323
130
1,352
130
1,387
129
1,421
128
1,451
127
1,485
125
1,509
* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
278 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Peanuts
Area Harvested
19,689
19,750
19,752
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
30,805
1,557
32,362
31,548
1,187
32,735
Food
Crush
Other Use
Residual
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
14,901
13,859
2,220
195
1,187
32,362
Trade
Peanut Meal
Production
Consumption
Trade
Peanut Oil
Production
Consumption
Trade
Per Capita Consumption
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
19,779
(Thousand Hectares)
19,833
19,880
19,940
20,009
20,086
20,148
20,229
31,812
1,111
32,924
31,871
1,150
33,020
(Thousand Metric Tons)
32,003
32,142
32,325
1,153
1,163
1,171
33,156
33,305
33,497
32,526
1,179
33,705
32,743
1,189
33,932
32,926
1,205
34,131
33,138
1,215
34,353
14,891
14,292
2,245
195
1,111
32,735
14,788
14,534
2,257
195
1,150
32,924
14,604
14,801
2,267
195
1,153
33,020
14,459
15,058
2,280
195
1,163
33,156
14,292
15,354
2,293
195
1,171
33,305
14,129
15,688
2,307
195
1,179
33,497
13,966
16,033
2,322
195
1,189
33,705
13,806
16,388
2,339
195
1,205
33,932
13,621
16,746
2,354
195
1,215
34,131
13,440
17,118
2,371
195
1,229
34,353
1,643
1,590
1,619
1,588
1,560
1,540
1,528
1,519
1,511
1,501
1,492
5,407
5,422
5,576
5,590
5,673
5,687
5,776
5,791
5,876
5,891
5,991
6,006
6,122
6,136
6,257
6,271
6,396
6,410
6,536
6,551
6,681
6,696
105
109
106
104
103
101
99
97
95
93
91
4,469
4,585
4,601
4,599
4,679
4,671
4,765
4,758
4,849
4,840
4,944
4,936
5,052
5,044
5,162
5,155
5,277
5,269
5,392
5,385
5,512
5,504
130
128
125
125
125
125
126
127
127
127
127
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.68
0.69
0.70
0.71
0.72
0.73
(Kilograms)
0.69
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 279
U.S. Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Peanuts
Area Harvested
437
481
531
520
Yield
3.82
3.63
3.66
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,673
966
2,639
1,746
720
2,466
Food
Crush
Other
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,203
208
195
720
2,326
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
514
513
514
511
511
3.69
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.73
3.76
3.79
3.83
3.86
3.89
3.93
1,943
624
2,566
1,920
657
2,576
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,935
1,944
1,951
657
661
664
2,592
2,605
2,615
1,965
666
2,630
1,985
670
2,655
1,991
680
2,670
2,006
684
2,690
1,188
200
191
624
2,202
1,217
224
192
657
2,290
1,229
222
192
657
2,299
1,237
224
193
661
2,314
1,244
225
193
664
2,326
1,251
226
193
666
2,336
1,258
228
194
670
2,350
1,266
232
195
680
2,373
1,274
233
196
684
2,387
1,282
236
196
692
2,406
313
265
276
277
278
279
279
280
283
284
284
Peanut Meal
Production
Consumption
Ending Stocks
99
94
2
95
90
2
106
101
2
105
100
2
106
101
2
107
102
2
107
102
2
109
104
2
110
105
2
111
106
2
112
107
2
Net Trade
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
Peanut Oil
Production
Consumption
Ending Stocks
67
99
11
65
95
11
73
98
11
72
98
11
73
99
11
73
99
11
73
100
11
74
100
11
75
101
11
76
101
11
76
102
11
Net Trade
-31
-30
-26
-26
-26
-26
-26
-26
-26
-26
-25
(Thousand Hectares)
519
517
280 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Argentine Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Peanuts
Area Harvested
200
201
203
204
Yield
2.75
2.77
2.79
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
550
53
603
557
18
575
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
125
10
18
153
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
210
212
214
216
218
2.81
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
2.83
2.85
2.87
2.89
2.91
2.93
2.95
565
21
586
574
22
596
(Thousand Metric Tons)
584
593
602
23
24
24
606
617
627
612
25
637
622
26
648
632
26
658
643
26
669
128
10
21
158
129
10
22
160
129
10
23
162
130
10
24
164
131
11
24
166
132
11
25
167
133
11
26
169
134
11
26
170
135
11
26
172
136
11
25
173
450
417
426
434
442
451
459
468
477
486
496
Peanut Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
73
2
75
75
2
77
75
2
77
76
2
78
76
2
78
76
2
79
77
2
79
78
2
80
78
2
80
79
2
81
80
2
82
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
63
2
65
64
2
66
65
2
67
66
2
68
66
2
68
67
2
69
67
2
69
68
2
70
68
2
71
69
2
71
70
2
72
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
Peanut Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
53
17
70
54
16
70
55
15
70
55
15
70
55
15
71
55
16
71
56
15
71
56
15
72
57
15
72
57
15
73
58
15
73
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
5
16
21
5
15
20
5
15
21
5
15
21
5
16
21
5
15
21
6
15
21
6
15
21
6
15
21
6
15
21
6
15
21
49
50
49
50
50
50
50
51
51
51
52
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
(Thousand Hectares)
206
208
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 281
Chinese Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
4,000
4,195
4,154
4,079
(Thousand Hectares)
4,010
3,951
3,907
3,864
3,821
3,776
3,731
3.18
3.20
3.22
3.24
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.26
3.28
3.30
3.32
3.34
3.36
3.38
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
12,720
0
12,720
13,423
0
13,423
13,377
0
13,377
13,215
0
13,215
(Thousand Metric Tons)
13,074
12,960
12,892
0
0
0
13,074
12,960
12,892
12,827
0
12,827
12,763
0
12,763
12,686
0
12,686
12,610
0
12,610
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
6,265
5,765
0
12,030
6,840
5,857
0
12,697
6,942
5,697
0
12,639
7,037
5,478
0
12,515
7,130
5,278
0
12,409
7,264
5,057
0
12,321
7,431
4,841
0
12,271
7,603
4,621
0
12,224
7,780
4,396
0
12,176
7,965
4,152
0
12,117
8,155
3,902
0
12,057
690
726
738
700
665
638
621
603
587
569
553
Peanut Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,497
0
2,497
2,726
0
2,726
2,767
0
2,767
2,805
0
2,805
2,842
0
2,842
2,895
0
2,895
2,962
0
2,962
3,030
0
3,030
3,101
0
3,101
3,175
0
3,175
3,250
0
3,250
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,555
0
2,555
2,785
0
2,785
2,823
0
2,823
2,858
0
2,858
2,893
0
2,893
2,944
0
2,944
3,009
0
3,009
3,076
0
3,076
3,145
0
3,145
3,217
0
3,217
3,291
0
3,291
-58
-59
-56
-54
-51
-49
-47
-46
-44
-42
-41
Peanut Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,960
0
1,960
2,140
0
2,140
2,172
0
2,172
2,202
0
2,202
2,231
0
2,231
2,272
0
2,272
2,325
0
2,325
2,379
0
2,379
2,434
0
2,434
2,492
0
2,492
2,551
0
2,551
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,956
0
1,956
2,136
0
2,136
2,169
0
2,169
2,199
0
2,199
2,229
0
2,229
2,272
0
2,272
2,324
0
2,324
2,379
0
2,379
2,435
0
2,435
2,493
0
2,493
2,553
0
2,553
4
4
3
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-1
Peanuts
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
14/15
282 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
European Union Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
0
17
17
0
17
17
0
18
18
0
18
18
45
705
17
767
46
720
18
784
46
731
18
795
46
736
18
800
46
736
18
800
46
741
18
805
-750
-767
-777
-782
-782
Peanut Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
20
0
20
20
0
20
20
0
20
20
0
20
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
50
0
50
49
0
49
48
0
48
-30
-28
16
5
21
Peanuts
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Peanut Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Thousand Metric Tons)
0
0
0
18
18
18
18
18
18
0
18
18
0
19
19
0
19
19
0
19
19
46
747
18
811
46
753
19
817
46
759
19
824
46
765
19
830
46
771
19
836
-787
-793
-799
-805
-811
-817
20
0
20
20
0
20
20
0
20
20
0
20
20
0
20
20
0
20
20
0
20
48
0
48
48
0
48
48
0
48
48
0
48
48
0
48
48
0
48
48
0
48
49
0
49
-28
-28
-28
-28
-28
-28
-28
-28
-28
16
5
21
16
5
21
16
5
21
16
5
22
16
5
21
16
5
21
16
5
22
16
5
22
16
5
22
16
5
22
110
5
115
109
5
114
110
5
115
110
5
115
110
5
116
111
5
116
111
5
116
111
5
117
112
5
117
112
5
117
112
5
118
-94
-93
-94
-94
-94
-94
-95
-95
-95
-96
-96
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 283
Indian Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
5,200
4,933
4,952
5,033
(Thousand Hectares)
5,103
5,167
5,233
5,302
5,375
5,444
5,521
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.99
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.00
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
1.05
1.06
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
5,000
124
5,124
4,792
54
4,846
4,861
57
4,918
4,991
58
5,049
(Thousand Metric Tons)
5,111
5,227
5,346
58
59
60
5,169
5,286
5,406
5,469
61
5,530
5,598
61
5,659
5,725
62
5,787
5,860
63
5,923
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
3,770
1,110
54
4,934
3,494
1,113
57
4,663
3,556
1,125
58
4,739
3,676
1,137
58
4,871
3,785
1,151
59
4,995
3,890
1,164
60
5,114
3,999
1,177
61
5,236
4,111
1,191
61
5,363
4,227
1,206
62
5,495
4,342
1,220
63
5,625
4,465
1,236
64
5,764
190
183
179
177
175
172
170
167
164
162
159
Peanut Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,475
0
1,475
1,367
0
1,367
1,391
0
1,391
1,438
0
1,438
1,481
0
1,481
1,522
0
1,522
1,565
0
1,565
1,608
0
1,608
1,654
0
1,654
1,699
0
1,699
1,747
0
1,747
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,400
0
1,400
1,289
0
1,289
1,315
0
1,315
1,364
0
1,364
1,408
0
1,408
1,451
0
1,451
1,496
0
1,496
1,541
0
1,541
1,589
0
1,589
1,636
0
1,636
1,685
0
1,685
75
78
76
74
73
71
69
67
65
63
61
Peanut Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,255
135
1,390
1,163
10
1,173
1,184
8
1,192
1,224
11
1,234
1,260
13
1,273
1,295
17
1,312
1,331
20
1,351
1,368
22
1,390
1,407
24
1,432
1,446
27
1,473
1,486
30
1,516
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,360
10
1,370
1,145
8
1,153
1,161
11
1,172
1,201
13
1,215
1,237
17
1,254
1,273
20
1,292
1,310
22
1,331
1,347
24
1,371
1,385
27
1,412
1,424
30
1,454
1,464
33
1,497
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
Peanuts
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
14/15
284 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Canadian Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization
Peanuts
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
125
5
130
0
129
5
135
0
131
5
137
0
132
5
137
0
133
5
138
-125
-130
-131
-132
-133
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
132
5
137
0
132
5
138
0
134
5
139
0
135
5
140
0
136
5
141
0
137
5
143
-132
-132
-134
-135
-136
-137
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
42
42
42
41
41
(Thousand Metric Tons)
0
0
5
5
5
5
Mexican Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization
Peanuts
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
45
43
42
42
1.56
1.57
1.59
1.61
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.63
1.65
1.66
1.68
1.70
1.72
1.74
70
13
83
67
9
76
67
11
78
68
11
79
(Thousand Metric Tons)
69
69
70
10
10
10
79
80
80
70
11
81
71
11
82
71
12
83
72
13
84
4
195
9
208
4
200
11
215
4
202
11
217
4
203
10
218
4
205
10
220
4
207
10
222
4
210
11
225
4
214
11
229
4
218
12
234
4
221
13
238
4
226
13
243
-125
-138
-139
-139
-140
-142
-145
-148
-152
-155
-159
(Thousand Hectares)
42
42
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 285
Rest-of-World Peanut Sector Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
9,807
9,898
9,869
9,900
(Thousand Hectares)
9,952
9,994
10,034
10,076
10,121
10,160
10,207
1.10
1.11
1.11
1.12
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
1.13
1.14
1.14
1.15
1.16
1.16
1.17
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
10,792
379
11,171
10,962
364
11,326
10,999
377
11,376
11,103
379
11,482
(Thousand Metric Tons)
11,230
11,349
11,464
382
386
389
11,612
11,734
11,853
11,583
393
11,976
11,704
397
12,101
11,821
401
12,222
11,947
405
12,352
Crush
Other Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
3,442
7,813
364
11,619
3,581
7,728
377
11,686
3,635
7,739
379
11,753
3,688
7,753
382
11,823
3,740
7,796
386
11,922
3,794
7,836
389
12,019
3,850
7,873
393
12,116
3,907
7,915
397
12,219
3,964
7,960
401
12,326
4,020
8,001
405
12,426
4,076
8,050
410
12,536
-448
-360
-377
-340
-310
-285
-263
-243
-224
-205
-184
Peanut Meal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,243
5
1,248
1,293
5
1,298
1,313
6
1,319
1,332
6
1,338
1,351
6
1,357
1,370
7
1,377
1,391
7
1,398
1,411
7
1,418
1,432
7
1,439
1,452
8
1,460
1,472
8
1,480
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,260
5
1,265
1,314
6
1,320
1,335
6
1,341
1,355
6
1,361
1,374
7
1,380
1,393
7
1,400
1,414
7
1,421
1,434
7
1,442
1,455
8
1,463
1,475
8
1,483
1,494
8
1,502
-17
-21
-22
-23
-23
-23
-24
-23
-23
-23
-22
Peanut Oil
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,118
19
1,137
1,163
24
1,187
1,180
24
1,204
1,197
24
1,221
1,214
24
1,238
1,232
24
1,256
1,250
24
1,274
1,269
24
1,292
1,287
24
1,311
1,305
24
1,329
1,323
24
1,347
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,055
24
1,079
1,108
24
1,132
1,128
24
1,151
1,143
24
1,167
1,160
24
1,184
1,177
24
1,200
1,194
24
1,218
1,212
24
1,236
1,230
24
1,254
1,248
24
1,272
1,267
24
1,291
57
55
53
54
54
55
56
57
57
57
57
Peanuts
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
14/15
286 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Per Capita Vegetable Oil Consumption of Selected Countries
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
9.68
8.95
0.12
9.88
8.90
0.12
9.81
8.97
0.12
9.92
9.00
0.12
10.02
9.04
0.13
18.75
18.89
18.90
19.05
19.19
8.32
8.20
8.19
8.16
Brazil
Soybean Oil
15.33
15.41
15.18
Canada
Soybean Oil
Canola Oil
7.79
10.37
7.96
10.33
Total
18.16
Argentina
Soybean Oil
Sunflower Oil
Peanut Oil
Total
Australia
Rapeseed Oil
China
Soybean Oil
Rapeseed Oil
Sunflower Oil
Palm Oil
Peanut Oil
Total
European Union
Soybean Oil
Rapeseed Oil
Sunflower Oil
Palm Oil
Peanut Oil
Total
India
Soybean Oil
Rapeseed Oil
Palm Oil
Peanut Oil
Total
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
10.17
9.11
0.13
10.23
9.14
0.13
10.27
9.17
0.13
10.33
9.20
0.13
10.40
9.22
0.13
19.30
19.40
19.49
19.57
19.66
19.75
8.09
8.02
7.95
7.87
7.79
7.71
7.64
15.16
15.19
15.18
15.15
15.13
15.12
15.14
15.19
7.89
10.38
7.93
10.40
7.94
10.41
7.90
10.40
7.88
10.41
7.91
10.40
7.94
10.40
7.96
10.39
7.99
10.41
18.29
18.28
18.33
18.35
18.30
18.28
18.31
18.33
18.35
18.39
7.76
3.84
0.22
3.14
1.47
8.07
3.77
0.22
3.21
1.60
8.25
3.80
0.23
3.27
1.61
8.54
3.82
0.24
3.33
1.63
8.84
3.85
0.24
3.41
1.64
9.14
3.88
0.25
3.48
1.67
9.45
3.90
0.25
3.57
1.70
9.77
3.90
0.26
3.65
1.73
10.10
3.91
0.26
3.74
1.77
10.45
3.93
0.27
3.84
1.81
10.82
3.95
0.28
3.93
1.84
16.43
16.87
17.16
17.56
17.98
18.42
18.87
19.32
19.79
20.29
20.82
2.94
5.77
5.89
9.44
0.22
3.01
5.54
5.86
9.60
0.22
2.99
5.55
5.94
9.79
0.22
3.01
5.56
5.98
9.92
0.22
3.02
5.59
6.01
9.99
0.22
3.02
5.61
6.05
10.11
0.22
3.03
5.63
6.08
10.26
0.22
3.05
5.61
6.12
10.42
0.23
3.06
5.60
6.16
10.58
0.23
3.07
5.60
6.21
10.74
0.23
3.09
5.61
6.25
10.89
0.23
24.27
24.24
24.50
24.69
24.83
25.02
25.22
25.43
25.64
25.85
26.06
1.91
2.00
5.80
1.16
2.00
2.02
5.52
0.96
2.03
2.05
5.59
0.96
2.09
2.04
5.65
0.98
2.14
2.01
5.71
1.00
2.20
2.00
5.78
1.02
2.26
2.01
5.86
1.03
2.32
2.03
5.94
1.05
2.37
2.05
6.02
1.07
2.43
2.06
6.09
1.09
2.49
2.06
6.17
1.10
10.87
10.50
10.64
10.75
10.87
11.00
11.16
11.34
11.51
11.67
11.82
(Kilograms)
10.10
9.08
0.13
Indonesia
Palm Oil
17.29
17.31
17.32
17.33
17.35
17.36
17.38
17.39
17.40
17.41
17.43
Total
17.29
17.31
17.32
17.33
17.35
17.36
17.38
17.39
17.40
17.41
17.43
4.30
7.25
4.37
7.26
4.31
7.32
4.35
7.37
4.36
7.43
4.37
7.48
4.38
7.55
4.39
7.63
4.41
7.71
4.43
7.77
4.44
7.83
11.55
11.62
11.64
11.72
11.79
11.85
11.93
12.03
12.12
12.20
12.27
Japan
Soybean Oil
Rapeseed Oil
Total
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 287
Per Capita Vegetable Oil Consumption of Selected Countries (continued)
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Malaysia
Palm Oil
34.79
38.52
38.96
39.61
40.28
Total
34.79
38.52
38.96
39.61
40.28
40.95
41.58
42.23
42.89
43.54
44.18
41.58
42.23
42.89
43.54
44.18
Other CIS *
Soybean Oil
Rapeseed Oil
Sunflower Oil
0.86
0.90
7.09
0.88
0.90
7.10
0.88
0.91
7.18
0.89
0.91
7.21
0.90
0.91
7.25
0.92
0.92
7.30
0.93
0.92
7.35
0.94
0.93
7.40
0.95
0.93
7.46
0.96
0.93
7.52
0.98
0.94
7.58
Total
8.85
8.89
8.97
9.01
9.07
9.13
9.20
9.27
9.34
9.42
9.49
South Korea
Soybean Oil
9.15
9.93
10.03
10.24
10.43
10.55
10.62
10.71
10.82
10.95
11.12
Taiwan
Soybean Oil
15.20
16.00
16.08
16.45
16.90
17.20
17.44
17.61
17.79
18.03
18.28
United States
Soybean Oil
Sunflower Oil
Canola Oil
Peanut Oil
24.21
0.74
4.30
0.32
25.54
0.71
4.23
0.30
25.98
0.73
4.28
0.31
26.30
0.73
4.28
0.31
26.18
0.73
4.29
0.31
26.49
0.73
4.32
0.30
27.17
0.73
4.33
0.30
27.55
0.74
4.31
0.30
27.78
0.74
4.30
0.30
27.97
0.75
4.29
0.30
28.01
0.75
4.30
0.30
Total
29.57
30.78
31.30
31.62
31.51
31.85
32.55
32.90
33.13
33.30
33.35
(Kilograms)
40.95
* Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
WORLD COTTON
290 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Cotton
In 2009/10, world cotton acreage shrank for a second straight year, to 30.4 mha, under continued competition
from grains and oilseeds, which have seen continued strong prices. Production shrank to 22.3 mmt on yields of
733 kg/ha. Mill use is expected to decline to 24.9 mmt under a modest rebound as world economies emerge from
the recent economic crisis. The growth in mill use and the modest contraction in production pull stocks to the
lowest level in several years. The Cotlook A-index Far East (FE) price for cotton strengthens to $1,633 per mt as
supplies tighten. Price reporting has made a transition to the FE price, and the previous Northern Europe (NE)
price is no longer being reported. Historically, the FE price has trended lower than the NE price. World cotton
demand strengthens in 2009/10 and in the next few years but will be dependent upon the resolution of the current
economic crisis. World cotton area returns to very modest growth as world GDP recovers, but it remains well
below the area seen in 2005/06 and 2006/07.
Chinese cotton production fell significantly, to 6.9 mmt, in 2009/10 on a proportional decline in acreage.
Acreage is expected to increase in 2010/11 but to remain below 6 mha during the next decade. Chinese mill use
grew to 10.1 mmt in 2009/10, after stumbling the previous year as world demand dried up. In 2009/10 Chinese
consumption will represent 41% of total world consumption. Chinese demand in 2009/10 and beyond is expected
to grow at a more tepid pace as the global economy recovers. As this recovery occurs, and with acreage relatively
stable, Chinese cotton imports are expected to rise, reaching 29% of use by 2019/20 and over 40% of world trade
flows, making China the dominant destination for cotton trade.
China’s increase in demand is met in part by increased area and improving yields in India, which has the most
area under cotton cultivation in the world, estimated at just over 10.2 mha in 2009/10, a significant jump from
the previous year. India is projected to increase its area modestly, to 10.4 mha in 2010/11, and area grows only
marginally from that point. Yields in India have been below the world average and stumbled in 2009/10, falling to
497 kg per ha, but they have grown rapidly with the adoption of Bt cotton and are expected to expand to 674 kg
per ha by 2019/20, still below the world average but closing the gap. While grain and oilseed prices are providing
competition for area, growing yields mean cotton acreage should hold its own under stable prices. The additional
area, coupled with yield growth, results in production of 7.1 mmt and net exports of 1.9 mmt by the end of the
projection period.
World cotton spinning continues to concentrate in a small number of countries. China, India, Pakistan, and Turkey
account for 72% of world mill use in 2009/10 and expand to 76% of world mill use by 2019/20. While mill use
in China continues at a strong pace, use in other parts of developing Asia are anticipated to expand. Developed
countries are likely to see continued declines in their consumption of raw cotton.
U.S. cotton production contracted again in 2009/10, falling to 2.7 mmt on weak yields of 865 kg/ha, and as area
was further diverted to grains and oilseeds. Harvested area is anticipated to rise modestly in 2010/11. Cotton
mill use in the United States, estimated at 0.74 mmt in 2009/10, has been falling for several years. U.S. mill use
continues to contract, reaching 0.61 by the end of the projection period. With the loss of domestic consumers for
their production, U.S. cotton farmers increasingly rely on world markets. Exports continue to be the dominant
force in U.S. cotton demand, and imports expand throughout the projection period.
World Cotton: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 291
Cotton Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
-7
371
384
1,243
611
331
-18
2,460
879
12
539
421
1,292
624
260
-11
2,691
833
29
557
431
1,234
615
263
0
2,736
858
37
574
455
1,275
615
266
-1
2,781
863
(Thousand Metric Tons)
42
48
53
583
592
604
481
485
514
1,362
1,462
1,557
614
618
624
272
275
279
-3
-4
-2
2,820
2,880
2,929
865
867
874
58
613
554
1,658
627
283
-1
2,993
879
63
623
594
1,754
631
288
0
3,065
884
68
632
647
1,850
635
292
1
3,138
889
74
641
702
1,946
638
296
1
3,217
894
Total Net Exports *
6,362
6,753
6,788
6,927
7,097
7,286
7,493
7,726
7,965
8,216
8,476
Net Importers
Canada
China
European Union
Indonesia
Japan
Mexico
Other Asia
Other Europe
Other Latin America
Pakistan
Russia
Kazakhstan
South Korea
Taiwan
Turkey
Residual
4
1,947
-6
448
60
305
1,674
18
210
474
147
-76
215
179
695
-40
5
2,312
20
491
62
296
1,667
17
212
502
140
-81
224
177
657
-40
5
2,372
29
474
56
250
1,716
16
210
524
133
-66
216
174
652
-40
5
2,458
27
483
53
242
1,762
15
214
543
126
-61
206
172
660
-40
5
2,590
26
479
49
234
1,808
14
216
561
120
-59
198
169
666
-40
5
2,756
22
479
43
215
1,854
13
218
580
113
-59
188
166
670
-40
5
2,939
18
479
39
202
1,898
12
219
601
106
-60
179
163
671
-40
4
3,135
15
480
35
193
1,943
11
221
624
99
-62
170
161
673
-40
4
3,337
13
481
31
182
1,989
10
223
647
93
-64
162
158
675
-40
4
3,551
10
482
27
171
2,035
9
224
673
86
-65
153
154
677
-40
4
3,774
8
482
22
160
2,081
8
226
699
79
-67
144
150
678
-40
Total Net Imports
6,362
6,753
6,788
6,927
7,097
7,286
7,493
7,726
7,965
8,216
8,476
1,733
1,403
1,753
1,421
1,770
1,438
1,790
1,455
Net Exporters
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
India
Africa
Other CIS
Other Middle East
United States
Uzbekistan
Prices
Cotlook A Index †
CIF Far East
U.S. Farm Price
14/15
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
1,633
1,330
1,605
1,283
1,619
1,294
1,632
1,307
1,644
1,323
1,679
1,352
1,707
1,379
Source: Cotlook, Ltd., Liverpool, England.
* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
† The "A" index is the average of the five lowest CIF Northern European quotes of the following descriptions (Middling 1-3/32"): Memphis;
Calif./Ariz.; Mexican; Central American; Paraguayan; Turkish Izmir/Antalya; Central Asian; Pakistani 1503; Indian H-4; Chinese 329; African
"Franc Zone"; Tanzanian; Greek; and Australian.
292 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Cotton Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
30,444
32,220
32,445
733
773
Production
22,321
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Area Harvested
Yield
Loss
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
32,543
(Thousand Hectares)
32,544
32,563
32,678
32,794
32,929
33,057
33,178
787
803
(Kilograms per Hectare)
815
827
840
853
866
879
893
24,894
25,544
26,118
(Thousand Metric Tons)
26,520
26,926
27,442
27,959
28,511
29,064
29,615
24,906
11,262
25,446
11,293
25,928
11,491
26,407
11,785
26,890
11,997
27,372
12,134
27,867
12,291
28,382
12,450
28,911
12,632
29,453
12,825
30,006
13,016
-582
-582
-582
-582
-582
-582
-582
-582
-582
-582
-582
45.22
44.38
44.32
44.63
44.62
(Percent)
44.33
44.11
43.87
43.69
43.54
43.38
14/15
U.S. Cotton Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
3,117
3,734
3,684
3,687
(Thousand Hectares)
3,671
3,674
3,669
3,685
3,706
3,723
3,750
865
929
937
947
(Kilograms per Hectare)
955
965
975
985
998
1,009
1,020
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,695
1,380
4,074
3,469
876
4,345
3,453
925
4,378
3,490
924
4,414
(Thousand Metric Tons)
3,507
3,546
3,578
927
924
914
4,435
4,470
4,492
3,632
901
4,533
3,697
892
4,589
3,755
890
4,645
3,824
888
4,712
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
738
876
1,614
729
925
1,654
718
924
1,642
705
927
1,632
691
924
1,615
676
914
1,590
662
901
1,563
648
892
1,540
634
890
1,524
620
888
1,508
607
889
1,496
2,460
2,691
2,736
2,781
2,820
2,880
2,929
2,993
3,065
3,138
3,217
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14/15
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Loss
African Cotton Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
3,783
3,911
3,948
3,937
(Thousand Hectares)
3,935
3,936
3,952
3,963
3,975
3,988
3,998
295
307
308
309
(Kilograms per Hectare)
311
312
313
314
316
317
318
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,115
594
1,710
1,201
528
1,728
1,217
521
1,738
1,218
532
1,750
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,222
1,227
1,237
538
544
547
1,760
1,771
1,785
1,246
551
1,796
1,254
555
1,809
1,263
559
1,822
1,271
564
1,836
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
564
528
1,092
577
521
1,099
585
532
1,117
591
538
1,129
597
544
1,141
600
547
1,148
604
551
1,155
608
555
1,163
613
559
1,172
618
564
1,182
622
569
1,191
611
624
615
615
614
618
624
627
631
635
638
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Loss
World Cotton: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 293
Argentine Cotton Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
400
441
460
Yield
433
452
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
173
140
313
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Loss
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
471
(Thousand Hectares)
479
485
492
499
506
513
521
459
467
(Kilograms per Hectare)
474
481
489
496
503
510
518
200
149
349
211
166
377
220
175
395
(Thousand Metric Tons)
227
233
240
182
188
192
409
421
433
247
197
444
255
202
456
262
206
468
270
211
480
168
149
318
170
166
335
172
175
346
174
182
356
177
188
365
179
192
371
181
197
378
183
202
385
185
206
391
187
211
398
189
215
404
-7
12
29
37
42
48
53
58
63
68
74
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Australian Cotton Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
195
269
273
279
(Thousand Hectares)
281
284
288
291
294
297
300
1,952
2,024
2,036
2,048
(Kilograms per Hectare)
2,060
2,072
2,084
2,096
2,108
2,120
2,132
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
380
202
583
544
220
763
555
232
786
571
236
807
(Thousand Metric Tons)
578
588
600
240
241
243
818
829
843
610
244
854
620
246
866
630
248
878
640
249
889
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
9
220
228
9
232
240
9
236
246
10
240
249
10
241
251
11
243
253
11
244
256
12
246
258
12
248
260
13
249
262
13
250
264
371
539
557
574
583
592
604
613
623
632
641
-16
-16
-16
-16
-16
-16
-16
-16
-16
-16
-16
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Loss
Brazilian Cotton Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
792
906
849
903
(Thousand Hectares)
909
904
933
956
978
1,012
1,035
Yield
1,490
1,554
1,563
1,581
(Kilograms per Hectare)
1,595
1,612
1,634
1,655
1,676
1,700
1,730
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,181
1,087
2,268
1,407
1,002
2,409
1,327
1,081
2,408
1,428
1,052
2,480
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,450
1,457
1,525
1,084
1,096
1,096
2,534
2,553
2,621
1,582
1,121
2,704
1,640
1,148
2,787
1,720
1,175
2,896
1,792
1,214
3,005
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
914
1,002
1,917
940
1,081
2,021
957
1,052
2,009
973
1,084
2,058
989
1,096
2,086
1,004
1,096
2,100
1,019
1,121
2,140
1,035
1,148
2,183
1,051
1,175
2,226
1,068
1,214
2,281
1,085
1,251
2,336
384
421
431
455
481
485
514
554
594
647
702
-33
-33
-33
-33
-33
-33
-33
-33
-33
-33
-33
Area Harvested
Net Trade
Loss
294 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Canadian Cotton Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
5
1
6
5
1
6
5
1
6
5
1
6
5
1
6
-4
-5
-5
-5
0
0
0
Net Trade
Loss
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
5
1
6
5
1
6
4
1
6
4
1
5
4
1
5
4
1
5
-5
-5
-5
-4
-4
-4
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14/15
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1
1
1
1
Chinese Cotton Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Area Harvested
5,250
5,560
5,807
5,862
(Thousand Hectares)
5,855
5,835
5,826
5,818
5,823
5,820
5,818
Yield
1,327
1,348
1,369
1,390
(Kilograms per Hectare)
1,411
1,432
1,453
1,474
1,495
1,516
1,537
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
6,965
4,543
11,508
7,493
3,820
11,313
7,949
3,731
11,679
8,147
3,908
12,055
(Thousand Metric Tons)
8,260
8,354
8,464
4,102
4,255
4,367
12,362
12,609
12,831
8,574
4,464
13,038
8,704
4,554
13,259
8,822
4,655
13,477
8,941
4,754
13,695
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
10,179
3,820
13,999
10,439
3,731
14,169
10,688
3,908
14,596
10,955
4,102
15,057
11,241
4,255
15,497
11,542
4,367
15,909
11,850
4,464
16,314
12,164
4,554
16,718
12,485
4,655
17,140
12,818
4,754
17,572
13,161
4,852
18,013
-1,947
-2,312
-2,372
-2,458
-2,590
-2,756
-2,939
-3,135
-3,337
-3,551
-3,774
-544
-544
-544
-544
-544
-544
-544
-544
-544
-544
-544
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Net Trade
Loss
European Union Cotton Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
262
224
206
188
(Thousand Hectares)
175
162
149
136
123
110
97
Yield
840
846
848
850
(Kilograms per Hectare)
852
854
856
858
860
862
864
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
220
147
367
190
116
306
175
98
272
160
89
249
(Thousand Metric Tons)
149
138
128
80
73
67
229
212
195
117
61
177
106
54
160
95
48
143
84
43
127
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
234
116
350
217
98
315
201
89
290
185
80
265
171
73
244
156
67
223
141
61
202
127
54
181
113
48
162
100
43
143
86
37
124
6
-20
-29
-27
-26
-22
-18
-15
-13
-10
-8
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
Net Trade
Loss
13/14
World Cotton: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 295
Indian Cotton Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
10,253
10,412
10,421
497
521
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
5,097
2,128
7,225
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Loss
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
10,406
(Thousand Hectares)
10,399
10,413
10,448
10,484
10,518
10,548
10,573
538
555
(Kilograms per Hectare)
572
589
606
623
640
657
674
5,426
1,897
7,323
5,608
1,788
7,396
5,777
1,805
7,581
(Thousand Metric Tons)
5,949
6,135
6,333
1,841
1,867
1,888
7,790
8,002
8,221
6,533
1,916
8,448
6,733
1,944
8,677
6,932
1,974
8,906
7,128
2,006
9,133
4,085
1,897
5,982
4,243
1,788
6,031
4,357
1,805
6,162
4,465
1,841
6,306
4,561
1,867
6,429
4,652
1,888
6,540
4,748
1,916
6,664
4,847
1,944
6,790
4,949
1,974
6,923
5,050
2,006
7,056
5,151
2,036
7,187
1,243
1,292
1,234
1,275
1,362
1,462
1,557
1,658
1,754
1,850
1,946
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
9
9
9
9
9
Indonesian Cotton Supply and Utilization
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Loss
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
10
9
9
9
619
626
632
639
(Kilograms per Hectare)
645
652
658
665
671
678
684
6
76
82
6
73
79
6
88
94
6
84
90
(Thousand Metric Tons)
6
6
6
88
88
89
94
94
95
6
90
97
6
92
98
6
93
99
6
94
101
446
73
519
471
88
559
473
84
557
474
88
562
474
88
563
473
89
563
474
90
564
474
92
566
475
93
568
476
94
570
476
96
572
-448
-491
-474
-483
-479
-479
-479
-480
-481
-482
-482
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
6
6
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
(Thousand Hectares)
9
9
Japanese Cotton Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
15
15
9
9
9
9
8
8
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
65
9
74
62
9
72
57
8
66
53
8
61
49
7
57
45
6
51
40
6
46
36
5
41
31
4
36
27
3
31
23
3
26
-60
-62
-56
-53
-49
-43
-39
-35
-31
-27
-22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Net Trade
Loss
(Thousand Metric Tons)
8
7
8
7
296 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Kazakhstan Cotton Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
120
155
127
Yield
547
602
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
66
50
116
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Loss
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
119
(Thousand Hectares)
115
113
115
117
119
121
123
607
612
(Kilograms per Hectare)
617
622
627
632
637
642
647
93
29
122
77
29
106
73
29
102
(Thousand Metric Tons)
71
71
72
29
30
30
100
100
102
74
30
104
76
31
106
78
31
109
80
31
111
11
29
40
11
29
40
11
29
40
11
29
41
11
30
41
12
30
42
12
30
42
12
31
42
12
31
43
12
31
43
12
32
44
76
81
66
61
59
59
60
62
64
65
67
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Mexican Cotton Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
70
112
121
124
(Thousand Hectares)
122
123
125
127
129
132
134
1,289
1,249
1,259
1,268
(Kilograms per Hectare)
1,278
1,288
1,297
1,307
1,317
1,327
1,336
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
91
168
259
139
145
285
152
161
313
157
152
309
(Thousand Metric Tons)
155
158
162
147
142
132
303
300
295
166
125
291
170
120
291
175
116
290
179
111
290
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
413
145
559
414
161
575
406
152
558
398
147
545
389
142
531
377
132
510
367
125
492
359
120
479
352
116
467
345
111
456
337
107
444
-305
-296
-250
-242
-234
-215
-202
-193
-182
-171
-160
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Loss
Other Asian Cotton Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
323
349
356
356
(Thousand Hectares)
355
355
355
356
356
356
356
Yield
272
275
277
280
(Kilograms per Hectare)
282
285
287
290
292
295
297
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
88
327
415
96
337
433
99
341
440
100
343
442
(Thousand Metric Tons)
100
101
102
345
347
348
445
448
450
103
349
452
104
351
455
105
353
458
106
354
460
1,742
337
2,079
1,750
341
2,091
1,803
343
2,146
1,850
345
2,194
1,897
347
2,243
1,944
348
2,292
1,989
349
2,338
2,035
351
2,386
2,081
353
2,434
2,128
354
2,483
2,176
356
2,532
-1,674
-1,667
-1,716
-1,762
-1,808
-1,854
-1,898
-1,943
-1,989
-2,035
-2,081
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Loss
World Cotton: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 297
Other European Cotton Supply and Utilization
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Loss
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
2
2
2
2
218
218
218
218
0
4
5
0
4
4
0
4
4
0
4
4
18
4
22
17
4
21
16
4
20
15
4
19
14
4
18
-18
-17
-16
-15
0
0
0
0
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
2
2
2
2
2
(Kilograms per Hectare)
218
218
218
218
218
218
218
0
4
4
0
4
4
0
4
4
0
4
4
0
4
4
13
4
17
12
4
16
11
4
15
10
4
14
9
4
13
8
4
12
-14
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Thousand Hectares)
2
2
(Thousand Metric Tons)
0
0
4
4
4
4
Other CIS Cotton Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
766
810
809
813
(Thousand Hectares)
825
832
843
852
862
872
882
Yield
465
500
505
510
(Kilograms per Hectare)
515
520
525
530
535
540
545
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
357
292
648
406
175
581
409
179
587
415
180
595
(Thousand Metric Tons)
425
433
443
181
182
183
606
615
626
452
184
636
462
185
647
471
186
658
481
187
668
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
142
175
317
142
179
321
145
180
324
148
181
329
152
182
334
157
183
340
162
184
346
168
185
353
173
186
359
179
187
366
184
188
373
331
260
263
266
272
275
279
283
288
292
296
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Net Trade
Loss
Other Latin American Cotton Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
170
173
174
173
(Thousand Hectares)
172
172
172
172
172
172
172
Yield
638
629
629
630
(Kilograms per Hectare)
630
631
631
632
632
633
633
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
108
132
241
109
118
227
110
119
228
109
119
228
(Thousand Metric Tons)
109
108
108
119
118
118
227
227
226
108
118
226
109
117
226
109
117
226
109
117
226
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
331
118
450
319
119
438
319
119
438
322
119
440
324
118
442
326
118
444
327
118
445
329
117
446
330
117
447
332
117
449
334
117
450
-210
-212
-210
-214
-216
-218
-219
-221
-223
-224
-226
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Net Trade
Loss
13/14
14/15
298 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Other Middle Eastern Cotton Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
Area Harvested
342
372
383
Yield
912
946
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
312
105
417
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Loss
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
381
(Thousand Hectares)
380
379
380
380
381
382
382
960
974
(Kilograms per Hectare)
988
1,003
1,017
1,031
1,045
1,059
1,074
352
86
437
367
90
458
371
92
463
(Thousand Metric Tons)
376
380
387
92
93
93
468
472
479
392
93
485
398
94
492
404
94
499
410
95
505
349
86
435
358
90
449
366
92
458
372
92
464
378
93
471
383
93
476
388
93
481
393
94
486
398
94
492
403
95
498
409
95
504
-18
-11
0
-1
-3
-4
-2
-1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14/15
Pakistani Cotton Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
3,000
3,054
3,071
3,094
(Thousand Hectares)
3,121
3,146
3,170
3,193
3,215
3,237
3,258
710
726
733
741
(Kilograms per Hectare)
749
757
764
772
780
787
795
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,130
966
3,096
2,217
953
3,169
2,253
972
3,225
2,293
986
3,279
(Thousand Metric Tons)
2,337
2,380
2,423
1,000
1,017
1,033
3,337
3,397
3,456
2,465
1,051
3,516
2,507
1,069
3,575
2,548
1,085
3,633
2,590
1,103
3,693
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,612
953
3,565
2,694
972
3,666
2,758
986
3,744
2,817
1,000
3,817
2,877
1,017
3,893
2,938
1,033
3,972
3,001
1,051
4,052
3,066
1,069
4,135
3,132
1,085
4,218
3,199
1,103
4,302
3,266
1,120
4,386
-474
-502
-524
-543
-561
-580
-601
-624
-647
-673
-699
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Thousand Metric Tons)
0
0
0
25
24
24
25
24
24
0
23
23
0
22
22
0
22
22
0
21
21
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Loss
Russian Cotton Supply and Utilization
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Loss
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
0
32
32
0
27
27
0
26
26
0
25
25
153
27
179
141
26
167
134
25
159
127
25
152
120
24
144
113
24
137
107
23
130
100
22
122
93
22
115
87
21
108
80
21
101
-147
-140
-133
-126
-120
-113
-106
-99
-93
-86
-79
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
World Cotton: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 299
South Korean Cotton Supply and Utilization
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Loss
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
0
47
47
0
46
46
0
55
55
0
58
58
(Thousand Metric Tons)
0
0
0
58
57
55
58
57
55
0
52
52
0
49
49
0
47
47
0
44
44
216
46
262
215
55
270
213
58
271
206
58
265
199
57
256
190
55
245
182
52
234
173
49
222
164
47
211
156
44
200
147
42
189
-215
-224
-216
-206
-198
-188
-179
-170
-162
-153
-144
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Thousand Metric Tons)
0
0
0
47
46
45
47
46
45
0
44
44
0
43
43
0
42
42
0
41
41
Taiwanese Cotton Supply and Utilization
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Loss
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
0
49
49
0
50
50
0
49
49
0
48
48
178
50
228
178
49
227
175
48
223
173
47
220
170
46
216
167
45
212
164
44
207
162
43
204
159
42
201
155
41
196
151
40
191
-179
-177
-174
-172
-169
-166
-163
-161
-158
-154
-150
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
300 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Turkish Cotton Supply and Utilization
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Loss
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
280
360
367
1,321
1,324
370
355
725
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
367
(Thousand Hectares)
369
371
377
381
385
389
393
1,337
1,350
(Kilograms per Hectare)
1,363
1,376
1,389
1,402
1,415
1,428
1,441
476
307
783
491
316
806
495
320
815
(Thousand Metric Tons)
503
511
524
322
324
325
825
835
849
534
328
862
545
330
875
556
332
888
566
335
901
1,114
307
1,421
1,125
316
1,440
1,139
320
1,458
1,153
322
1,475
1,166
324
1,491
1,180
325
1,505
1,193
328
1,520
1,206
330
1,535
1,218
332
1,550
1,230
335
1,565
1,242
337
1,579
-695
-657
-652
-660
-666
-670
-671
-673
-675
-677
-678
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14/15
Uzbek Cotton Supply and Utilization
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Mill Use
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Loss
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
1,309
1,368
1,379
1,372
(Thousand Hectares)
1,371
1,368
1,372
1,372
1,373
1,374
1,374
739
784
789
794
(Kilograms per Hectare)
799
804
809
814
819
824
829
967
424
1,391
1,072
293
1,365
1,087
313
1,400
1,089
321
1,410
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,095
1,100
1,110
324
329
333
1,419
1,429
1,443
1,117
339
1,456
1,124
345
1,469
1,132
350
1,482
1,139
356
1,494
218
293
512
219
313
532
221
321
542
223
324
548
225
329
554
228
333
561
230
339
569
233
345
577
235
350
585
238
356
593
240
361
601
879
833
858
863
865
867
874
879
884
889
894
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
WORLD SUGAR
302 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Sugar
World sugarcane harvested area increases by 1.3% in 2009/10, and world sugar beet harvested area declines
by 0.2% as beet area drops in China, Russia, and Ukraine. By 2019/20, harvested area for sugarcane increases
15.4%, and sugar beet harvested area increases by 3.9% because significant reductions in beet area in the EU
are more than offset by increases in other countries such as China and Russia. World sugar production (in raw
sugar equivalence) increases 6.3%, to 153.3 mmt, in 2009/10, following an 11.3% decline in 2008/09. Sugar
consumption increases 1.1%, to 155.8 mmt, in 2009/10. The higher consumption results in a 2.6 mmt deficit in
the world sugar market. Total sugar production increases 24.2% and total consumption increases 21.9% over the
decade. World sugar net trade increases 13.3% by 2019/20.
The production shortfall in 2009/10 results in a dramatic increase in the world sugar price. The price increases
by 60.6%, from 15.9¢ per pound to 25.6¢ per pound. This is followed by a 25.6% decline in the following year.
However, the world sugar price remains high over the projection period, reaching 20.4¢ per pound by 2019/20.
This sustained higher world price is primarily the result of higher sugar imports in countries such as the EU,
China, and Pakistan, and also increased production of ethanol from sugarcane, particularly in Brazil.
Brazil continues its record crop production in 2009/10, with sugarcane production increasing by 15.4 mmt, or
2.4%, as crop harvested area increases 2.6%. Less than half of the sugarcane produced (45%) goes to sugar
production, while the rest goes to ethanol production. Sugar production increases by 9.8% in 2009/10 while sugar
consumption declines by 4.1%, and net exports increase by almost 20%. Sugar production and consumption
increase 18.5% and 26.8%, respectively, while net exports reach almost 28 mmt by 2019/20, an increase of 10.3%.
Thai sugarcane harvested area increases by 3% and sugarcane yields increase by 5.1% in 2009/10 because of
favorable weather conditions. Consequently, sugarcane production increases by 8.3%. Sugar production increases
by almost 7% in the same year while sugar consumption increases 5%, with higher consumption from both
households and industry. Sugar production, consumption, and net exports increase 18.7%, 24.1%, and 12.8%,
respectively, by 2019/20.
In 2007/08 and 2008/09, Indian sugar production was on the downward side of the country’s persistent cyclical
fluctuations in production. Despite lower sugarcane harvested area in 2009/10, sugar production increases by
7.3% because of higher yields. Sugar consumption falls by almost 3% in 2009/10. However, consumption is 6.2
mmt higher than consumption, which results in an increase in net imports from 2.6 mmt in 2008/09 to 6.0 mmt
in 2009/10. Sugar production and consumption increase 75.5% and 26.4%, respectively, by 2019/20. With the
projected recovery in 2010/11, India becomes a net exporter, with net exports increasing and then declining over
the projection period.
Beet harvested area in the EU increases by 3.1% in 2009/10, after declining in the first three years of the CMO
sugar reforms. As a result, sugar production increases by 14.1%, to 15.5 mmt, while consumption decreases
by 1% in 2009/10, and net imports total 2 mmt. With over-quota sugar going into ethanol production, sugar
production increases 5.4% and consumption increases 23.8% over the projection period. The EU continues to be a
major importer of sugar, with net imports of 4 mmt by 2019/20.
Although Russia is the largest importer of sugar, accounting for 5.6% of world net trade, its net imports decline
by 15.4% in 2009/10. With sugar production expanding by 34% and consumption by 5.7%, net imports decline
over the projection period by nearly 47%. As a region, Asia is the largest importer, with China, Indonesia, Japan,
Malaysia, and South Korea together accounting for 19% of world trade by 2019/20. Sugar production declines in
China for the second consecutive year but is projected to recover, increasing by 22% by 2019/20. Net imports in
Japan decline 13% by 2019/20, as Japanese sugar consumption declines by 1.6% while production increases by
11.4% over the decade.
World Sugar: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 303
Sugar Trade
Net Exporters
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Colombia
Cuba
Guatemala
India
Mexico
Philippines
South Africa
Thailand
Turkey
Total Net Exports *
Net Importers
Algeria
Canada
China
Egypt
European Union
Indonesia
Iran
Japan
Malaysia
Morocco
Pakistan
Peru
Russia
South Korea
Ukraine
United States
Venezuela
Rest of World
Total Net Imports
Prices
FOB Caribbean Price
New York Spot
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
596
3,691
25,357
925
510
1,515
-5,990
-20
160
700
5,800
5
549
3,873
21,443
964
773
1,717
429
468
131
668
5,882
110
552
3,845
21,085
966
832
1,696
1,302
570
197
697
5,937
18
39,259
37,005
1,100
1,408
835
1,160
2,025
1,500
693
1,313
1,270
700
730
45
2,200
1,260
225
2,002
450
11,453
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
556
3,814
21,512
970
868
1,720
1,515
605
205
712
6,008
0
(Thousand Metric Tons)
555
556
561
3,777
3,742
3,718
22,675
23,670
24,464
965
959
955
882
891
904
1,750
1,784
1,823
1,350
1,175
1,028
612
614
605
185
161
141
717
713
705
6,072
6,143
6,219
17
41
65
573
3,707
25,119
954
920
1,868
913
594
126
698
6,298
93
584
3,697
26,072
955
930
1,909
728
583
108
681
6,374
116
594
3,688
26,963
959
937
1,949
560
571
89
660
6,457
141
604
3,679
27,963
961
940
1,985
373
558
67
636
6,541
167
37,698
38,483
39,557
40,451
41,188
41,862
42,736
43,568
44,475
1,249
1,469
1,881
1,151
2,597
1,588
1,072
1,276
1,364
737
905
78
2,447
1,316
425
2,082
535
11,952
1,285
1,469
1,682
1,237
2,666
1,639
1,047
1,252
1,393
761
971
85
2,253
1,333
450
2,186
468
12,642
1,324
1,484
1,629
1,308
2,866
1,718
1,055
1,233
1,436
796
1,023
106
2,165
1,350
458
2,223
463
12,966
1,364
1,501
1,651
1,380
3,033
1,809
1,084
1,214
1,485
835
1,125
138
2,117
1,367
468
2,233
478
13,395
1,397
1,509
1,675
1,443
3,212
1,902
1,113
1,200
1,532
874
1,219
170
2,062
1,380
470
2,237
494
13,684
1,421
1,522
1,698
1,492
3,387
1,995
1,140
1,188
1,578
911
1,302
200
1,998
1,390
464
2,230
504
13,888
1,445
1,539
1,716
1,537
3,554
2,086
1,164
1,176
1,624
947
1,380
230
1,926
1,401
453
2,220
513
14,071
1,471
1,557
1,749
1,590
3,715
2,174
1,192
1,164
1,674
985
1,476
265
1,863
1,415
440
2,211
526
14,389
1,497
1,574
1,785
1,643
3,865
2,260
1,218
1,152
1,724
1,024
1,572
301
1,797
1,429
425
2,202
540
14,679
1,523
1,593
1,822
1,702
4,021
2,346
1,246
1,140
1,774
1,064
1,675
341
1,733
1,443
410
2,191
555
15,015
39,259
37,005
37,698
38,483
39,557
40,451
41,188
41,862
42,736
43,568
44,475
564
647
420
552
430
543
434
553
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
431
434
440
556
563
565
448
565
449
566
451
567
450
566
Note: Sugar is in raw equivalent.
* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
14/15
304 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
4.50
4.52
4.50
4.51
4.58
4.60
4.62
4.65
4.67
47.98
47.55
47.90
48.31
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
48.74
49.17
49.58
49.98
50.39
50.80
51.21
216
215
215
218
(Million Metric Tons)
221
224
227
230
233
236
239
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
24.69
25.84
25.59
25.88
(Million Hectares)
26.21
26.51
26.87
27.29
27.71
28.11
28.49
Yield
71.22
72.35
72.97
73.62
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
74.28
74.93
75.59
76.26
76.94
77.67
78.37
Production
1,758
1,870
1,868
1,905
(Million Metric Tons)
1,947
1,986
2,031
2,081
2,132
2,183
2,233
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
153.26
30.70
183.96
164.79
28.12
192.90
165.20
31.74
196.94
168.01
32.57
200.58
171.39
33.31
204.70
174.49
33.87
208.36
177.48
34.37
211.85
180.44
34.84
215.27
183.76
35.24
219.00
187.00
35.71
222.71
190.38
36.17
226.55
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
155.84
28.12
183.96
161.16
31.74
192.90
164.37
32.57
196.94
167.27
33.31
200.58
170.83
33.87
204.70
173.99
34.37
208.36
177.02
34.84
211.85
180.03
35.24
215.27
183.29
35.71
219.00
186.54
36.17
222.71
189.90
36.65
226.55
39.26
37.01
37.70
38.48
39.56
40.45
41.19
41.86
42.74
43.57
44.47
Sugar Beet
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
(Million Hectares)
4.53
4.55
World Sugar: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 305
U.S. Sugar Supply and Utilization
Sugar Beet
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
463
512
471
57.78
58.94
26,779
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
463
(Thousand Hectares)
465
466
468
465
464
464
465
59.61
60.27
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
60.98
61.70
62.41
63.10
63.81
64.52
65.24
30,153
28,083
27,935
(Thousand Metric Tons)
28,326
28,747
29,189
29,343
29,605
29,925
30,318
332
342
346
338
(Thousand Hectares)
337
336
336
335
333
332
331
77.56
75.00
75.29
75.64
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
76.17
76.74
77.30
77.84
78.38
78.94
79.50
25,760
25,686
26,017
25,528
(Thousand Metric Tons)
25,632
25,796
25,964
26,067
26,133
26,220
26,321
7,110
1,316
8,426
7,846
1,001
8,847
7,600
1,338
8,938
7,552
1,362
8,914
7,661
1,356
9,018
7,784
1,376
9,161
7,912
1,390
9,302
7,986
1,414
9,400
8,073
1,440
9,513
8,173
1,464
9,636
8,287
1,486
9,773
9,428
1,001
10,428
9,591
1,338
10,929
9,762
1,362
11,124
9,780
1,356
11,137
9,874
1,376
11,251
10,007
1,390
11,397
10,117
1,414
11,532
10,181
1,440
11,621
10,260
1,464
11,724
10,353
1,486
11,839
10,450
1,514
11,964
-2,002
-2,082
-2,186
-2,223
-2,233
-2,237
-2,230
-2,220
-2,211
-2,202
-2,191
306 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Algerian Sugar Supply and Utilization
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
0
75
75
0
60
60
0
75
75
0
88
88
(Thousand Metric Tons)
0
0
0
102
115
127
102
115
127
0
138
138
0
148
148
0
158
158
0
168
168
1,115
60
1,175
1,235
75
1,309
1,272
88
1,360
1,311
102
1,412
1,351
115
1,465
1,384
127
1,511
1,411
138
1,548
1,435
148
1,582
1,461
158
1,619
1,487
168
1,654
1,513
178
1,690
-1,100
-1,249
-1,285
-1,324
-1,364
-1,397
-1,421
-1,445
-1,471
-1,497
-1,523
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Argentine Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
312
320
316
315
(Thousand Hectares)
315
315
315
316
318
319
321
65.71
67.92
69.47
70.69
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
71.71
72.61
73.44
74.24
75.02
75.79
76.54
20,500
21,761
21,988
22,289
(Thousand Metric Tons)
22,579
22,854
23,155
23,493
23,847
24,191
24,533
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,250
216
2,466
2,394
150
2,544
2,424
162
2,586
2,463
167
2,630
2,501
171
2,672
2,537
175
2,712
2,576
178
2,754
2,620
181
2,801
2,665
184
2,849
2,710
187
2,897
2,754
190
2,944
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,720
150
1,870
1,834
162
1,995
1,866
167
2,033
1,903
171
2,074
1,942
175
2,117
1,977
178
2,155
2,011
181
2,193
2,044
184
2,228
2,078
187
2,265
2,113
190
2,303
2,147
193
2,340
596
549
552
556
555
556
561
573
584
594
604
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
World Sugar: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 307
Australian Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
379
397
393
84.43
85.25
32,000
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
389
(Thousand Hectares)
385
381
379
377
375
374
372
85.88
86.44
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
86.96
87.45
87.93
88.42
88.90
89.39
89.86
33,884
33,719
33,592
(Thousand Metric Tons)
33,469
33,342
33,285
33,306
33,351
33,391
33,433
4,900
451
5,351
5,195
410
5,605
5,177
437
5,613
5,164
449
5,613
5,152
457
5,609
5,139
465
5,604
5,137
471
5,608
5,147
476
5,623
5,160
480
5,641
5,173
486
5,659
5,186
490
5,677
1,250
410
1,660
1,296
437
1,732
1,319
449
1,768
1,343
457
1,800
1,367
465
1,832
1,391
471
1,862
1,414
476
1,890
1,436
480
1,916
1,458
486
1,944
1,480
490
1,971
1,503
495
1,998
3,691
3,873
3,845
3,814
3,777
3,742
3,718
3,707
3,697
3,688
3,679
14/15
Brazilian Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
8,423
8,550
8,325
8,547
(Thousand Hectares)
8,818
9,064
9,360
9,688
10,028
10,352
10,653
Yield
78.47
79.63
80.07
80.68
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
81.43
82.21
83.01
83.81
84.64
85.56
86.47
660,975
680,895
666,539
689,573
(Thousand Metric Tons)
718,026 745,130 776,899
811,999
848,756
885,795
921,178
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
35,371
1,995
37,366
34,003
1,000
35,003
32,648
2,060
34,708
33,515
1,868
35,383
34,974
1,849
36,823
36,235
1,849
38,083
37,277
1,843
39,119
38,195
1,831
40,026
39,440
1,820
41,260
40,616
1,820
42,436
41,924
1,819
43,743
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
11,009
1,000
12,009
11,500
2,060
13,561
11,755
1,868
13,623
12,022
1,849
13,872
12,300
1,849
14,148
12,570
1,843
14,413
12,825
1,831
14,655
13,086
1,820
14,906
13,368
1,820
15,188
13,654
1,819
15,473
13,956
1,824
15,780
25,357
21,443
21,085
21,512
22,675
23,670
24,464
25,119
26,072
26,963
27,963
Production
Net Trade
308 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Canadian Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
14
14
14
14
52.81
55.41
56.87
Production
719
788
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
100
100
200
Sugar Beet
Area Harvested
Yield
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
14
14
14
14
14
57.88
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
58.69
59.43
60.15
60.85
61.56
62.27
62.97
805
815
(Thousand Metric Tons)
823
831
839
848
856
864
872
110
154
264
112
178
290
114
183
296
115
184
299
116
185
301
117
184
301
119
184
302
120
184
304
121
185
306
122
185
308
1,454
154
1,608
1,555
178
1,732
1,576
183
1,759
1,596
184
1,780
1,615
185
1,800
1,626
184
1,810
1,640
184
1,823
1,657
184
1,842
1,677
185
1,861
1,695
185
1,880
1,714
186
1,900
-1,408
-1,469
-1,469
-1,484
-1,501
-1,509
-1,522
-1,539
-1,557
-1,574
-1,593
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Thousand Hectares)
14
14
Chinese Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
185
222
234
238
(Thousand Hectares)
239
239
238
237
236
235
234
Yield
37.84
40.65
42.28
43.40
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
44.30
45.11
45.86
46.60
47.33
48.06
48.78
Production
7,000
9,034
9,896
10,337
(Thousand Metric Tons)
10,591
10,760
10,895
11,026
11,155
11,278
11,400
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
1,709
1,744
1,750
1,759
(Thousand Hectares)
1,767
1,775
1,783
1,792
1,802
1,811
1,821
Yield
71.97
72.34
72.75
73.18
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
73.63
74.09
74.54
75.00
75.46
75.92
76.37
123,000
126,185
127,335
128,697
(Thousand Metric Tons)
130,097 131,479 132,899
134,404
135,950
137,499
139,071
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
13,161
3,464
16,625
13,825
2,047
15,872
14,099
2,257
16,356
14,354
2,333
16,687
14,595
2,372
16,967
14,827
2,401
17,228
15,061
2,421
17,482
15,305
2,434
17,739
15,555
2,445
18,000
15,806
2,457
18,262
16,061
2,468
18,529
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
15,413
2,047
17,460
15,496
2,257
17,753
15,704
2,333
18,037
15,944
2,372
18,316
16,217
2,401
18,618
16,481
2,421
18,902
16,745
2,434
19,180
17,011
2,445
19,456
17,292
2,457
19,749
17,580
2,468
20,048
17,873
2,477
20,351
-835
-1,881
-1,682
-1,629
-1,651
-1,675
-1,698
-1,716
-1,749
-1,785
-1,822
Sugar Beet
Area Harvested
Production
Net Trade
World Sugar: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 309
Colombian Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
445
455
450
75.82
77.12
33,740
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
449
(Thousand Hectares)
448
447
446
446
446
446
446
77.84
78.44
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
78.97
79.47
79.94
80.42
80.90
81.38
81.84
35,066
35,055
35,220
(Thousand Metric Tons)
35,383
35,521
35,678
35,865
36,077
36,307
36,533
2,575
125
2,700
2,687
170
2,857
2,696
190
2,886
2,720
196
2,916
2,743
199
2,942
2,764
200
2,964
2,787
200
2,987
2,813
201
3,013
2,840
201
3,041
2,869
201
3,070
2,898
201
3,099
1,605
170
1,775
1,703
190
1,893
1,723
196
1,920
1,748
199
1,946
1,777
200
1,977
1,805
200
2,005
1,832
201
2,032
1,859
201
2,059
1,885
201
2,086
1,910
201
2,111
1,937
201
2,138
925
964
966
970
965
959
955
954
955
959
961
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Cuban Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
392
438
438
442
(Thousand Hectares)
444
446
449
453
457
460
462
Yield
24.75
26.88
27.84
28.33
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
28.57
28.68
28.73
28.75
28.76
28.76
28.75
Production
9,694
11,762
12,209
12,515
(Thousand Metric Tons)
12,686
12,782
12,887
13,020
13,138
13,223
13,281
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,250
55
1,305
1,519
85
1,604
1,579
92
1,671
1,621
98
1,719
1,646
104
1,750
1,661
111
1,772
1,677
118
1,795
1,697
124
1,821
1,715
129
1,844
1,729
136
1,865
1,739
142
1,882
710
85
795
739
92
831
742
98
840
748
104
851
757
111
868
763
118
881
768
124
891
772
129
901
779
136
914
785
142
927
792
150
942
510
773
832
868
882
891
904
920
930
937
940
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
310 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Egyptian Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
100
102
102
102
(Thousand Hectares)
102
103
103
104
105
105
106
Yield
42.94
44.97
46.19
47.00
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
47.61
48.13
48.61
49.06
49.50
49.93
50.36
Production
4,304
4,584
4,696
4,788
(Thousand Metric Tons)
4,867
4,940
5,018
5,101
5,184
5,266
5,348
141
142
138
137
(Thousand Hectares)
136
136
136
137
138
139
139
96.96
99.91
101.69
103.13
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
104.45
105.72
106.98
108.24
109.51
110.77
112.03
13,712
14,159
14,028
14,093
(Thousand Metric Tons)
14,219
14,375
14,583
14,836
15,096
15,349
15,596
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,750
746
2,496
1,824
936
2,760
1,826
931
2,758
1,845
931
2,776
1,869
931
2,801
1,896
933
2,829
1,928
934
2,862
1,965
935
2,899
2,002
935
2,937
2,040
935
2,975
2,076
936
3,012
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,720
936
3,656
2,980
931
3,912
3,064
931
3,995
3,153
931
4,084
3,248
933
4,181
3,337
934
4,271
3,419
935
4,353
3,502
935
4,437
3,592
935
4,527
3,682
936
4,618
3,777
937
4,714
-1,160
-1,151
-1,237
-1,308
-1,380
-1,443
-1,492
-1,537
-1,590
-1,643
-1,702
14/15
Sugar Beet
Area Harvested
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
European Union Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Sugar Beet
Area Harvested
1,546
1,365
1,373
1,377
(Thousand Hectares)
1,384
1,389
1,393
1,398
1,403
1,409
1,413
Yield
64.76
65.15
65.61
66.10
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
66.60
67.10
67.62
68.16
68.70
69.25
69.79
100,112
88,914
90,082
91,023
(Thousand Metric Tons)
92,143
93,174
94,220
95,298
96,393
97,539
98,637
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
(Thousand Hectares)
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
61.44
61.65
61.85
62.02
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
62.19
62.35
62.53
62.72
62.92
63.12
63.32
18
16
15
14
(Thousand Metric Tons)
14
14
14
15
15
15
16
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
15,485
2,175
17,660
14,629
3,185
17,814
14,830
3,219
18,049
14,994
3,153
18,147
15,188
3,076
18,264
15,367
2,994
18,361
15,549
2,912
18,461
15,736
2,831
18,567
15,927
2,749
18,675
16,126
2,667
18,792
16,317
2,584
18,901
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
16,500
3,185
19,685
17,192
3,219
20,411
17,562
3,153
20,715
17,936
3,076
21,012
18,302
2,994
21,296
18,660
2,912
21,573
19,018
2,831
21,848
19,372
2,749
22,121
19,724
2,667
22,390
20,073
2,584
22,658
20,421
2,502
22,923
-2,025
-2,597
-2,666
-2,866
-3,033
-3,212
-3,387
-3,554
-3,715
-3,865
-4,021
Production
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
World Sugar: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 311
Guatemalan Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
240
256
259
92.02
92.71
22,054
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
262
(Thousand Hectares)
264
266
268
270
271
273
274
93.47
94.48
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
95.60
96.78
97.99
99.22
100.47
101.72
102.95
23,757
24,214
24,758
(Thousand Metric Tons)
25,267
25,737
26,226
26,752
27,274
27,768
28,242
2,250
622
2,872
2,434
612
3,046
2,492
499
2,991
2,559
448
3,007
2,623
421
3,044
2,684
402
3,085
2,746
386
3,132
2,813
371
3,184
2,881
355
3,236
2,945
341
3,286
3,008
327
3,335
745
612
1,357
831
499
1,330
847
448
1,295
867
421
1,287
892
402
1,294
916
386
1,302
938
371
1,309
960
355
1,316
986
341
1,327
1,011
327
1,338
1,037
312
1,350
1,515
1,717
1,696
1,720
1,750
1,784
1,823
1,868
1,909
1,949
1,985
14/15
Indian Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
4,250
4,939
5,016
5,055
(Thousand Hectares)
5,081
5,103
5,130
5,165
5,199
5,232
5,264
Yield
65.41
68.66
70.04
70.82
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
71.38
71.87
72.32
72.77
73.22
73.67
74.10
278,000
339,086
351,325
357,972
(Thousand Metric Tons)
362,686 366,746 371,056
375,857
380,712
385,389
390,028
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
17,300
3,690
20,990
25,850
3,480
29,330
26,845
4,495
31,340
27,416
5,065
32,481
27,842
5,451
33,293
28,219
5,787
34,006
28,616
6,086
34,702
29,053
6,359
35,412
29,496
6,620
36,116
29,927
6,891
36,817
30,356
7,161
37,517
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
23,500
3,480
26,980
24,406
4,495
28,900
24,973
5,065
30,037
25,515
5,451
30,966
26,156
5,787
31,943
26,745
6,086
32,831
27,315
6,359
33,674
27,880
6,620
34,499
28,497
6,891
35,388
29,096
7,161
36,258
29,709
7,436
37,145
-5,990
429
1,302
1,515
1,350
1,175
1,028
913
728
560
373
Production
Net Trade
312 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Indonesian Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
350
350
350
76.00
77.33
26,600
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
350
(Thousand Hectares)
350
349
349
350
350
351
351
77.92
78.16
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
78.23
78.24
78.22
78.19
78.16
78.13
78.09
27,079
27,306
27,357
(Thousand Metric Tons)
27,352
27,334
27,326
27,335
27,360
27,393
27,443
2,960
340
3,300
3,016
400
3,416
3,044
437
3,481
3,052
459
3,512
3,055
476
3,531
3,055
492
3,547
3,057
507
3,564
3,061
521
3,582
3,066
534
3,601
3,073
547
3,620
3,081
560
3,642
4,400
400
4,800
4,567
437
5,004
4,660
459
5,120
4,753
476
5,229
4,848
492
5,340
4,943
507
5,449
5,038
521
5,559
5,133
534
5,667
5,227
547
5,775
5,320
560
5,881
5,415
573
5,987
-1,500
-1,588
-1,639
-1,718
-1,809
-1,902
-1,995
-2,086
-2,174
-2,260
-2,346
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Iranian Sugar Supply and Utilization
Sugar Beet
Area Harvested
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
165
168
163
160
(Thousand Hectares)
159
158
157
157
157
156
156
35.63
35.97
36.30
36.63
5,589
5,630
5,667
5,700
66
67
67
67
67
Yield
33.39
33.70
34.00
34.32
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
34.65
34.98
35.30
Production
5,504
5,673
5,549
5,506
(Thousand Metric Tons)
5,504
5,518
5,548
63
66
66
66
Yield
87.83
88.16
88.61
89.15
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
89.74
90.34
90.94
91.55
92.17
92.80
93.40
Production
5,528
5,824
5,865
5,902
(Thousand Metric Tons)
5,941
5,984
6,035
6,096
6,160
6,223
6,283
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,300
407
1,707
1,356
200
1,556
1,347
346
1,693
1,348
409
1,757
1,353
442
1,796
1,361
465
1,826
1,372
483
1,855
1,385
500
1,885
1,399
516
1,915
1,412
532
1,944
1,424
548
1,972
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,200
200
2,400
2,282
346
2,628
2,331
409
2,740
2,370
442
2,813
2,414
465
2,879
2,456
483
2,939
2,495
500
2,995
2,533
516
3,049
2,575
532
3,107
2,614
548
3,162
2,654
564
3,219
-693
-1,072
-1,047
-1,055
-1,084
-1,113
-1,140
-1,164
-1,192
-1,218
-1,246
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
Net Trade
(Thousand Hectares)
66
66
World Sugar: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 313
Japanese Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
69
70
70
70
71
71
71
71
71
Yield
59.30
59.70
60.14
60.57
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
60.99
61.41
61.82
62.24
62.67
63.11
63.53
Production
4,096
4,178
4,216
4,260
(Thousand Metric Tons)
4,305
4,348
4,383
4,413
4,439
4,462
4,481
24
24
24
24
25
25
25
25
25
Yield
53.95
53.79
53.43
52.98
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
52.48
51.97
51.45
50.93
50.42
49.92
49.40
Production
1,270
1,284
1,285
1,285
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,285
1,284
1,280
1,274
1,268
1,260
1,251
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
939
414
1,353
960
446
1,406
971
454
1,426
983
456
1,439
995
455
1,450
1,007
455
1,461
1,017
455
1,471
1,025
455
1,480
1,033
455
1,488
1,040
456
1,496
1,046
456
1,503
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,220
446
2,666
2,228
454
2,682
2,222
456
2,678
2,216
455
2,672
2,210
455
2,665
2,207
455
2,661
2,204
455
2,659
2,200
455
2,656
2,196
456
2,652
2,191
456
2,648
2,186
457
2,642
-1,313
-1,276
-1,252
-1,233
-1,214
-1,200
-1,188
-1,176
-1,164
-1,152
-1,140
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
11
11
11
11
11
Sugar Beet
Area Harvested
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
(Thousand Hectares)
71
71
(Thousand Hectares)
24
25
Malaysian Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
11
12
12
11
64.92
65.33
65.88
66.55
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
67.26
67.98
68.69
69.41
70.14
70.87
71.58
Production
702
761
759
759
(Thousand Metric Tons)
759
758
759
762
764
766
767
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
30
71
101
33
101
134
34
118
152
35
123
158
35
125
161
36
127
163
37
129
166
38
130
168
39
131
170
40
133
172
40
134
175
1,270
101
1,371
1,381
118
1,499
1,422
123
1,545
1,469
125
1,594
1,519
127
1,646
1,567
129
1,696
1,614
130
1,744
1,661
131
1,792
1,712
133
1,844
1,762
134
1,896
1,813
136
1,949
-1,270
-1,364
-1,393
-1,436
-1,485
-1,532
-1,578
-1,624
-1,674
-1,724
-1,774
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
Yield
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
(Thousand Hectares)
11
11
314 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Mexican Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
663
689
684
66.49
70.94
44,083
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
682
(Thousand Hectares)
683
686
689
692
695
698
701
72.80
73.64
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
74.09
74.37
74.59
74.80
75.02
75.22
75.42
48,876
49,802
50,239
(Thousand Metric Tons)
50,624
51,033
51,404
51,769
52,147
52,532
52,905
5,400
640
6,040
6,036
760
6,796
6,175
949
7,124
6,255
1,019
7,274
6,328
1,042
7,370
6,404
1,048
7,453
6,477
1,050
7,527
6,549
1,050
7,598
6,622
1,049
7,671
6,698
1,047
7,745
6,772
1,045
7,817
5,300
760
6,060
5,379
949
6,328
5,535
1,019
6,554
5,627
1,042
6,669
5,709
1,048
6,757
5,788
1,050
6,839
5,872
1,050
6,922
5,956
1,049
7,004
6,041
1,047
7,088
6,128
1,045
7,173
6,215
1,044
7,259
-20
468
570
605
612
614
605
594
583
571
558
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Moroccan Sugar Supply and Utilization
Sugar Beet
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
Yield
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
58
61
61
61
50.83
2,924
13
65.85
51.20
3,142
14
67.38
51.54
3,147
14
68.32
(Thousand Hectares)
61
60
60
60
60
60
59
51.84
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
52.10
52.34
52.58
52.81
53.05
53.29
53.52
3,151
(Thousand Metric Tons)
3,152
3,153
3,158
3,168
3,175
3,179
3,181
14
(Thousand Hectares)
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
68.92
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
69.31
69.57
69.77
69.94
70.10
70.24
70.38
(Thousand Metric Tons)
964
971
979
988
997
1,004
1,011
Production
887
943
949
957
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
550
284
834
590
309
899
592
342
934
594
359
953
596
372
968
597
383
980
600
392
992
603
402
1,004
605
410
1,016
607
420
1,027
609
430
1,039
1,225
309
1,534
1,294
342
1,636
1,335
359
1,694
1,377
372
1,749
1,420
383
1,803
1,462
392
1,854
1,502
402
1,903
1,540
410
1,951
1,581
420
2,001
1,622
430
2,051
1,663
439
2,103
-700
-737
-761
-796
-835
-874
-911
-947
-985
-1,024
-1,064
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
World Sugar: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 315
Pakistani Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
23.18
23.15
23.14
23.17
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
23.20
23.24
23.28
23.33
23.38
23.43
23.47
82
86
84
83
(Thousand Metric Tons)
82
81
81
80
80
79
78
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
1,020
1,034
1,009
1,007
(Thousand Hectares)
1,007
1,005
1,005
1,008
1,009
1,010
1,010
Yield
49.02
49.60
50.16
50.74
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
51.32
51.89
52.48
53.08
53.68
54.28
54.86
50,000
51,288
50,614
51,097
(Thousand Metric Tons)
51,655
52,153
52,770
53,480
54,171
54,799
55,410
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
3,520
550
4,070
3,621
550
4,171
3,584
690
4,273
3,628
770
4,398
3,678
826
4,504
3,724
879
4,602
3,778
926
4,704
3,839
969
4,808
3,900
1,010
4,910
3,956
1,053
5,009
4,011
1,096
5,107
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
4,250
550
4,800
4,387
690
5,077
4,475
770
5,244
4,595
826
5,421
4,751
879
5,629
4,896
926
5,821
5,037
969
6,006
5,179
1,010
6,189
5,333
1,053
6,386
5,485
1,096
6,581
5,643
1,139
6,782
-730
-905
-971
-1,023
-1,125
-1,219
-1,302
-1,380
-1,476
-1,572
-1,675
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
79
79
79
79
79
Sugar Beet
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Production
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
(Thousand Hectares)
4
4
Peruvian Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
76
79
78
79
127.89
128.68
129.04
129.36
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
129.61
129.82
130.02
130.22
130.41
130.60
130.78
Production
9,720
10,156
10,114
10,162
(Thousand Metric Tons)
10,189
10,198
10,218
10,252
10,281
10,297
10,304
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,100
95
1,195
1,151
60
1,211
1,149
86
1,234
1,156
92
1,248
1,161
93
1,254
1,164
94
1,258
1,169
94
1,262
1,175
94
1,268
1,180
94
1,274
1,184
94
1,278
1,187
94
1,281
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,180
60
1,240
1,204
86
1,290
1,228
92
1,319
1,261
93
1,354
1,298
94
1,392
1,334
94
1,428
1,369
94
1,463
1,405
94
1,498
1,444
94
1,538
1,485
94
1,579
1,528
94
1,622
-45
-78
-85
-106
-138
-170
-200
-230
-265
-301
-341
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
(Thousand Hectares)
79
79
316 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Philippine Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
390
401
394
57.44
61.95
22,400
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
392
(Thousand Hectares)
392
393
395
398
401
404
407
64.00
64.99
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
65.50
65.77
65.94
66.06
66.17
66.26
66.35
24,836
25,204
25,479
(Thousand Metric Tons)
25,680
25,836
26,030
26,278
26,534
26,773
27,011
2,200
322
2,522
2,443
212
2,655
2,483
310
2,793
2,514
341
2,855
2,538
351
2,889
2,557
355
2,912
2,580
358
2,938
2,608
359
2,968
2,638
360
2,998
2,666
361
3,027
2,693
362
3,056
2,150
212
2,362
2,214
310
2,524
2,256
341
2,596
2,299
351
2,650
2,348
355
2,703
2,394
358
2,752
2,438
359
2,797
2,481
360
2,841
2,529
361
2,890
2,576
362
2,938
2,625
364
2,989
160
131
197
205
185
161
141
126
108
89
67
14/15
Russian Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
900
986
1,011
1,028
(Thousand Hectares)
1,042
1,054
1,067
1,081
1,094
1,107
1,120
28.89
28.95
29.08
29.25
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
29.46
29.67
29.89
30.12
30.36
30.60
30.83
26,000
28,557
29,393
30,078
(Thousand Metric Tons)
30,692
31,288
31,907
32,556
33,222
33,887
34,547
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
3,350
750
4,100
3,682
450
4,132
3,793
608
4,401
3,884
670
4,555
3,967
711
4,678
4,047
749
4,796
4,130
783
4,914
4,217
815
5,033
4,307
846
5,153
4,397
878
5,275
4,486
911
5,396
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
5,850
450
6,300
5,972
608
6,580
5,984
670
6,654
6,009
711
6,720
6,046
749
6,795
6,074
783
6,858
6,096
815
6,911
6,112
846
6,958
6,137
878
7,016
6,161
911
7,072
6,186
943
7,130
-2,200
-2,447
-2,253
-2,165
-2,117
-2,062
-1,998
-1,926
-1,863
-1,797
-1,733
Sugar Beet
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
World Sugar: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 317
South African Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
310
311
313
63.42
64.24
19,660
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
315
(Thousand Hectares)
316
317
319
320
322
323
325
64.65
64.86
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
64.98
65.02
65.05
65.06
65.04
64.99
64.95
19,981
20,212
20,404
(Thousand Metric Tons)
20,543
20,643
20,738
20,841
20,932
21,004
21,075
2,380
97
2,477
2,422
92
2,514
2,453
126
2,579
2,479
153
2,633
2,499
180
2,679
2,514
207
2,722
2,529
235
2,764
2,545
261
2,806
2,559
287
2,846
2,571
314
2,885
2,583
341
2,924
1,685
92
1,777
1,720
126
1,846
1,728
153
1,881
1,740
180
1,920
1,755
207
1,962
1,774
235
2,009
1,797
261
2,058
1,821
287
2,108
1,851
314
2,166
1,884
341
2,225
1,920
368
2,288
700
668
697
712
717
713
705
698
681
660
636
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
(Thousand Metric Tons)
0
0
0
177
179
181
177
179
181
0
182
182
0
184
184
0
185
185
0
187
187
South Korean Sugar Supply and Utilization
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
0
184
184
0
164
164
0
171
171
0
174
174
1,280
164
1,444
1,310
171
1,480
1,330
174
1,504
1,347
177
1,524
1,365
179
1,544
1,378
181
1,559
1,389
182
1,571
1,400
184
1,583
1,414
185
1,599
1,427
187
1,614
1,441
189
1,630
-1,260
-1,316
-1,333
-1,350
-1,367
-1,380
-1,390
-1,401
-1,415
-1,429
-1,443
318 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Thai Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
1,030
1,071
1,088
1,096
(Thousand Hectares)
1,102
1,105
1,108
1,112
1,115
1,118
1,122
Yield
69.90
69.75
69.94
70.39
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
71.00
71.67
72.38
73.13
73.90
74.69
75.46
Production
72,000
74,731
76,082
77,175
(Thousand Metric Tons)
78,206
79,213
80,233
81,289
82,381
83,500
84,653
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
7,700
2,351
10,051
8,000
2,151
10,151
8,152
2,066
10,217
8,277
2,034
10,311
8,395
2,018
10,412
8,511
2,008
10,519
8,629
1,997
10,626
8,750
1,986
10,736
8,876
1,974
10,850
9,005
1,964
10,969
9,138
1,954
11,092
2,100
2,151
4,251
2,203
2,066
4,269
2,246
2,034
4,281
2,286
2,018
4,303
2,333
2,008
4,340
2,378
1,997
4,375
2,422
1,986
4,408
2,465
1,974
4,438
2,512
1,964
4,476
2,558
1,954
4,512
2,606
1,945
4,551
5,800
5,882
5,937
6,008
6,072
6,143
6,219
6,298
6,374
6,457
6,541
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
14/15
Turkish Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
325
330
327
329
(Thousand Hectares)
334
340
346
352
359
365
371
46.15
46.27
46.52
46.89
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
47.29
47.70
48.10
48.51
48.92
49.34
49.74
15,000
15,277
15,195
15,421
(Thousand Metric Tons)
15,782
16,205
16,643
17,092
17,543
17,988
18,431
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,100
505
2,605
2,143
600
2,743
2,135
554
2,689
2,170
546
2,716
(Thousand Metric Tons)
2,225
2,289
2,355
550
558
567
2,776
2,847
2,922
2,423
576
2,999
2,491
586
3,077
2,559
596
3,155
2,626
607
3,233
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,000
600
2,600
2,079
554
2,633
2,125
546
2,671
2,166
550
2,716
2,201
558
2,759
2,239
567
2,805
2,281
576
2,857
2,320
586
2,906
2,365
596
2,961
2,407
607
3,014
2,449
617
3,066
5
110
18
0
17
41
65
93
116
141
167
Sugar Beet
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
World Sugar: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 319
Ukrainian Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
360
355
349
30.00
31.40
10,800
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Sugar Beet
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
347
(Thousand Hectares)
345
343
342
342
342
343
343
32.38
33.10
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
33.69
34.20
34.66
35.10
35.53
35.96
36.38
11,156
11,293
11,478
(Thousand Metric Tons)
11,612
11,727
11,861
12,010
12,169
12,332
12,495
1,625
250
1,875
1,680
200
1,880
1,702
198
1,899
1,730
217
1,947
1,752
245
1,997
1,770
277
2,048
1,792
311
2,103
1,815
346
2,161
1,841
381
2,221
1,867
416
2,282
1,892
451
2,343
1,900
200
2,100
2,107
198
2,305
2,133
217
2,350
2,160
245
2,405
2,188
277
2,465
2,206
311
2,517
2,221
346
2,566
2,234
381
2,614
2,246
416
2,662
2,257
451
2,708
2,268
486
2,754
-225
-425
-450
-458
-468
-470
-464
-453
-440
-425
-410
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
Venezuelan Sugar Supply and Utilization
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
100
119
127
131
(Thousand Hectares)
132
133
134
134
135
136
137
Yield
70.37
70.91
71.03
71.09
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
71.15
71.23
71.33
71.44
71.55
71.66
71.76
Production
7,037
8,421
9,002
9,289
(Thousand Metric Tons)
9,418
9,475
9,529
9,607
9,691
9,769
9,840
540
193
733
647
100
747
693
157
850
716
175
891
726
188
915
732
201
933
737
213
950
744
223
967
751
234
985
758
244
1,003
765
255
1,020
1,083
100
1,183
1,125
157
1,282
1,143
175
1,318
1,166
188
1,354
1,191
201
1,392
1,214
213
1,427
1,231
223
1,454
1,247
234
1,480
1,267
244
1,511
1,288
255
1,543
1,309
266
1,575
-450
-535
-468
-463
-478
-494
-504
-513
-526
-540
-555
Sugarcane
Area Harvested
Sugar
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
320 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Per Capita Sugar Consumption of Selected Countries
Algeria
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
Colombia
Cuba
Egypt
European Union
Guatemala
India
Indonesia
Iran
Japan
Malaysia
Mexico
Morocco
Pakistan
Peru
Philippines
Russia
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Turkey
Ukraine
United States
Venezuela
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
32.24
41.60
58.10
56.74
43.07
11.59
36.31
61.86
33.80
33.51
54.98
20.03
18.11
32.82
17.51
48.55
47.12
38.73
23.97
39.46
21.52
41.97
34.31
26.32
31.62
25.71
41.84
30.39
39.78
35.28
43.90
59.53
59.25
45.69
11.59
38.09
64.22
36.31
34.88
60.11
20.52
18.59
33.71
17.61
51.89
47.30
40.48
24.38
39.78
21.74
43.04
35.11
26.86
32.98
26.39
46.68
30.62
40.70
35.92
44.24
59.92
59.92
45.95
11.69
38.09
64.38
36.61
35.61
60.05
20.72
18.78
34.09
17.62
52.55
48.14
41.32
24.50
40.10
21.73
43.33
35.40
27.22
33.44
26.64
47.55
30.87
40.75
36.59
44.67
60.30
60.62
46.16
11.81
38.20
64.77
36.96
36.34
60.31
20.90
18.95
34.31
17.63
53.39
48.42
42.18
24.79
40.72
21.74
43.73
35.81
27.52
33.85
26.84
48.46
30.63
40.98
37.28
45.14
60.74
61.43
46.37
11.96
38.42
65.44
37.37
37.07
60.93
21.16
19.14
34.59
17.65
54.30
48.60
43.05
25.26
41.49
21.81
44.23
36.27
27.83
34.36
26.97
49.40
30.63
41.27
14/15
(Kilograms)
37.78
45.52
61.12
62.14
46.32
12.11
38.61
65.88
37.71
37.78
61.39
21.37
19.33
34.82
17.69
55.11
48.77
43.86
25.67
42.18
21.84
44.66
36.75
28.05
34.86
27.13
50.13
30.74
41.46
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
38.08
45.89
61.48
62.84
46.37
12.25
38.79
66.18
37.96
38.49
61.77
21.56
19.51
35.01
17.75
55.85
48.97
44.62
26.04
42.84
21.85
45.06
37.18
28.24
35.34
27.34
50.79
30.78
41.46
38.32
46.22
61.79
63.54
46.53
12.40
38.96
66.44
38.21
39.21
62.12
21.75
19.70
35.19
17.80
56.57
49.18
45.32
26.40
43.51
21.86
45.43
37.63
28.43
35.81
27.53
51.43
30.68
41.45
38.62
46.58
62.13
64.32
46.73
12.56
39.13
66.96
38.54
39.92
62.67
21.97
19.88
35.41
17.86
57.38
49.39
46.07
26.82
44.30
21.90
45.87
38.22
28.68
36.34
27.78
52.05
30.63
41.56
38.90
46.95
62.45
65.12
46.89
12.73
39.28
67.43
38.87
40.64
63.19
22.18
20.06
35.62
17.91
58.16
49.62
46.83
27.21
45.11
21.94
46.31
38.87
28.93
36.86
28.01
52.67
30.61
41.71
39.19
47.31
62.77
65.96
47.10
12.91
39.45
68.01
39.24
41.36
63.77
22.40
20.24
35.84
17.97
58.94
49.86
47.59
27.63
45.98
22.00
46.78
39.56
29.20
37.41
28.23
53.28
30.61
41.86
WORLD BIOFUELS
322 / World Biofuels: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Ethanol
The world ethanol price increased 12.5% in 2008, to $1.74 per gallon. It decreased 8%, to $1.6 per gallon, in 2009
because of the 37% drop in crude oil prices coupled with an almost 60% reduction in U.S. ethanol net imports.
The ethanol price increases almost 9% over the projection period, mostly because of higher ethanol demand from
the U.S. brought about by the renewable fuels mandates. World net trade increased 10.8% in 2008 but declined
8.2% in 2009. As world demand for ethanol increases over the projection period, net trade is expected to rise
323.2%, reaching 4.1 billion gallons by 2019.
Brazil’s ethanol production totaled almost 7 billion gallons in 2009, an increase of 0.9%. This translates into
333.3 mmt of sugarcane used in ethanol production. Production of ethanol in Brazil increases 96.8% by the end
of the projection period, to 13.6 billion gallons. Sugarcane used in ethanol production increases 71.8%, reaching
572.8 mmt by 2019. Brazil’s ethanol consumption increased in 2009 by 7.7%, to 6.4 billion gallons. Its ethanol
consumption is projected to increase 48.7% by 2019. Brazil’s net ethanol exports reach 4.1 billion gallons in
2019, an increase of 338.7%, partly because of the increase in U.S. ethanol import demand.
Ethanol production in the EU increased almost 45% in 2008 and 14% in 2009. EU ethanol production is projected
to reach 1.8 billion gallons in 2019, an increase of 127.4%. Consumption in the EU increased 10.3% in 2009, to
1.1 billion gallons. It is expected to reach 2.5 billion gallons in 2019, an increase of 129.2% over the decade. Total
EU biofuels consumption reaches nearly 4% of transport fuels in 2019. EU net imports rise from 279 million
gallons in 2009 to 655 million gallons by 2019 as consumption increases more than production.
Chinese fuel ethanol production increased 15.3% in 2008, to 516 million gallons. Production is projected to
continue to increase and reach 731.4 million gallons by 2019. Ethanol consumption in China increased from
414 billion gallons in 2007 to 448 million gallons in 2008. It increases 52.7%, to 744.9 million gallons, between
2008 and 2019. Net exports, which totaled 35 million gallons in 2008, are projected to decline over the projection
period. By 2018, China switches to a net importer of ethanol, with net imports of 13.4 million gallons in 2019.
In India, ethanol is produced mainly from molasses, a co-product in sugar production from sugarcane. India’s
ethanol production decreased 32.6%, from 443 million gallons in 2008 to 298 million gallons in 2009, because
of a decline in sugarcane production. Production rises to 634.9 million gallons in 2019, an increase of 112.9%.
Consumption of ethanol in India was 473 million gallons in 2009 and is projected to increase 48.3%, to 702.1
million gallons, in 2019. India’s net imports increase from 53 million gallons in 2009 to 75.7 million gallons in
2019.
Japanese net imports of ethanol declined 3.2%, from 123.6 million gallons in 2007 to 119.6 million gallons in
2008. Net imports are projected to increase 103.7%, to 243.7, by the end of the decade. Ethanol net imports in
South Korea totaled 60.6 million gallons in 2005. They are projected to increase to almost 202 million gallons by
2019, an increase of 147.4% from the 2005 levels.
World Biofuels: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 323
World Biodiesel
The world price of biodiesel (Central Europe FOB) increases to $4.14 per gallon in 2010, driven by higher
petroleum and vegetable oil prices. Lower exportable surpluses from Argentina as their B5 mandate is
implemented and tariff barriers imposed by the EU (by far the dominant importer) on biodiesel originating from
the U.S. also contribute to the price recovery. Increasing crude oil prices and the mandates in Argentina, Brazil, the
EU, and the U.S. lead to price increases throughout the period. The world price reaches $5.58 per gallon by 2019.
The EU is home to the world’s largest biodiesel industry and markets. Both the implementation of antidumping
and countervailing duties by the EU and the domestic consumption mandates boost demand for domestically
produced biodiesel. In response to these stimuli, the local industry increases production by 5% in 2010, on
top of the 36% expansion observed in the previous season. Production continues its expansion and reaches 3.5
billion gallons by 2019. Pushed by the biofuels target, consumption continues to grow during the outlook period,
reaching 4.0 billion gallons in 2019. The biodiesel share of diesel in transport is, however, still only about 5.8%.
Net imports grow steadily over the outlook period and reach 559 million gallons by 2019.
An export-oriented Argentine industry rapidly increased biodiesel production and exports from marginal
production levels in 2006 to over 300 million gallons in 2009. This production continues its expansion path and
reaches 464 million gallons by 2019. Implementation of the domestic B5 mandate in 2010, however, reduces the
country’s exportable surplus by 36% year on year. The ensuing growth in domestic consumption keeps net exports
from expanding beyond 270 million gallons over the next decade.
Unlike in Argentina, most of the biodiesel production in Brazil has been motivated by domestic consumption
mandates. This is expected to continue over the outlook period, and net exports remain at modest levels, not
exceeding 80 million gallons. Consumption jumps in 2008, 2009, and 2010 because of the mandate (B2.5 by
2008, B3 and B4 by 2009, and B5 by 2010) and is expected to reach about 700 million gallons by 2019. While
Brazil is striving to produce biodiesel from alternative vegetable oils, it is expected that soybean oil will remain
the dominant feedstock.
The combined biodiesel production in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to increase from about 100 million
gallons in 2009 to 182 million gallons in 2019. Domestic production growth is constrained by rising palm oil
prices and repeated delays in the implementation of and changes in the domestic consumption mandates in these
countries. Given the uncertainty generated by these changes, no domestic consumption mandate was included in
the present outlook.
324 / World Biofuels: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Ethanol Trade
Net Exporters
Brazil
China
Total Net Exports *
Net Importers
Canada
European Union
India
Japan
South Korea
United States
ROW
Total Net Imports *
Prices
Anhydrous Ethanol Price, Brazil †
Ethanol, FOB Omaha
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
945
35
1,124
37
1,324
23
1,430
23
(Million Gallons)
1,553
1,736
2,089
17
11
7
2,599
6
3,118
0
3,660
-5
4,148
-13
980
1,161
1,348
1,453
1,571
1,748
2,096
2,605
3,118
3,660
4,148
171
279
53
137
85
180
75
194
315
91
149
100
226
85
220
373
89
162
116
291
97
236
407
89
172
127
317
107
253
457
88
183
138
333
118
266
491
87
194
149
432
128
277
517
86
204
160
715
139
281
546
80
213
170
1,168
149
290
581
78
223
180
1,606
159
297
613
75
233
191
2,077
170
308
655
76
244
202
2,470
180
980
1,161
1,348
1,453
1,571
1,748
2,096
2,605
3,118
3,660
4,148
1.60
1.79
1.61
1.74
1.46
1.77
1.53
1.78
(U.S. Dollars per Gallon)
1.52
1.54
1.57
1.79
1.83
1.89
1.67
1.92
1.69
1.92
1.74
1.93
1.74
1.93
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Note: 1 gallon = 3.7857 liters; 1 metric ton = 1237.1644 liters.
* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports.
† Represents world ethanol price.
Biodiesel Trade
Net Exporters
Argentina
Brazil
Indonesia
Malaysia
United States
Total Net Exports *
Net Importers
European Union
Japan
ROW
Total Net Imports *
Prices
Central Europe FOB Price †
Biodiesel Plant
2009
2010
2011
2012
331
-1
21
58
157
216
-13
20
74
24
247
23
22
85
5
263
48
24
91
2
(Million Gallons)
271
274
63
72
26
28
95
97
12
20
274
76
32
98
21
272
75
36
98
25
270
72
41
99
49
268
66
48
99
83
265
58
58
99
122
566
335
382
428
467
491
500
507
531
564
602
375
17
174
269
17
35
333
15
34
380
15
34
419
15
33
443
15
33
452
15
33
460
15
32
485
15
31
519
14
30
559
13
30
566
335
382
428
467
491
500
507
531
564
602
3.89
3.50
4.14
3.67
4.40
3.75
4.61
3.94
(U.S. Dollars per Gallon)
4.75
4.74
4.83
3.99
4.01
4.10
4.98
4.22
5.18
4.32
5.39
4.41
5.58
4.41
Note: 1 gallon = 3.7857 liters; 1 metric ton = 1136.36 liters.
* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports.
† Represents world biodiesel price.
2013
2014
World Biofuels: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 325
U.S. Biofuels Production and Consumption
2009
2010
2011
2012
Ethanol
Production
Consumption
Net Trade
10,699
10,888
-180
12,304
12,407
-226
13,295
13,525
-291
13,648
13,945
-317
Feedstock in Ethanol Production
Corn
Corn Stover
Switchgrass
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
(Million Gallons)
14,042
14,627
15,293
14,355
15,030
15,974
-333
-432
-715
15,827
16,966
-1,168
16,274
17,855
-1,606
16,763
18,813
-2,077
17,307
19,749
-2,470
(Thousand Metric Tons)
98,283 111,773 119,932 121,954 124,249 128,149 132,603 135,782 138,144
3
37
142
265
305
301
299
296
293
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
140,451
458
312
141,832
1,401
1,566
Biodiesel
Production
Consumption
Net Trade
578
401
157
715
660
24
846
807
5
962
945
2
1,018
1,000
12
1,025
1,002
20
1,058
1,027
21
1,149
1,119
25
1,238
1,203
49
1,292
1,242
83
1,324
1,245
122
Feedstock in Biodiesel Production
Soybean Oil
Canola Oil
913
20
1,143
20
1,461
19
1,687
22
1,763
22
1,761
22
1,915
23
2,147
24
2,286
23
2,383
22
2,444
22
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
459
185
274
461
189
272
462
192
270
463
196
268
464
199
265
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,498
1,513
1,519
1,520
1,519
1,516
1,513
Argentine Biofuels Production and Consumption
Biodiesel
Production
Consumption
Net Trade
Feedstock in Biodiesel Production
Soybean Oil
2009
2010
2011
2012
326
5
331
384
168
216
418
171
247
438
175
263
1,102
1,296
1,406
1,466
2013
(Million Gallons)
449
455
178
182
271
274
Brazilian Biofuels Production and Consumption
Ethanol
Production
Consumption
Net Trade
Feedstock in Ethanol Production
Sugarcane
Biodiesel
Production
Consumption
Net Trade
Feedstock in Biodiesel Production
Soybean Oil
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
6,915
6,365
945
7,886
6,646
1,124
8,429
7,015
1,324
8,785
7,389
1,430
(Million Gallons)
9,287
9,811
10,442
7,739
8,079
8,362
1,553
1,736
2,089
11,196
8,608
2,599
11,988
8,877
3,118
12,805
9,151
3,660
13,608
9,461
4,148
(Thousand Metric Tons)
333,336 370,306 387,963 399,781 417,951 436,649 459,526 487,221 515,928
544,998
572,815
406
396
-1
571
585
-13
620
597
23
656
608
48
1,204
1,685
1,813
1,905
2014
(Million Gallons)
684
706
621
633
63
72
722
646
76
734
659
75
744
672
72
751
685
66
757
699
58
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,972
2,018
2,049
2,068
2,078
2,083
2,082
326 / World Biofuels: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Canadian Biofuels Production and Consumption
Ethanol
Production
Consumption
Net Trade
Feedstock in Ethanol Production
Wheat
Corn
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
279
450
-171
302
496
-194
310
530
-220
323
558
-236
(Million Gallons)
336
351
589
617
-253
-266
366
643
-277
388
669
-281
410
700
-290
433
730
-297
455
763
-308
868
2,017
935
2,177
955
2,230
989
2,315
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,025
1,065
1,106
2,406
2,504
2,607
1,165
2,753
1,224
2,900
1,286
3,052
1,345
3,200
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
649
642
7
671
665
6
691
691
0
712
717
-5
731
745
-13
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,813
1,858
1,906
4,359
4,478
4,603
1,960
4,745
2,008
4,873
2,058
5,006
2,105
5,131
Chinese Biofuels Production and Consumption
Ethanol
Production
Consumption
Net Trade
Feedstock in Ethanol Production
Wheat
Corn
2009
2010
2011
2012
542
508
35
563
526
37
575
551
23
594
571
23
1,643
3,911
1,695
4,046
1,723
4,122
1,770
4,246
2013
2014
(Million Gallons)
611
630
594
618
17
11
European Union Biofuels Production and Consumption
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Ethanol
Production
Consumption
Net Trade
803
1,082
-279
990
1,304
-315
1,073
1,446
-373
1,171
1,577
-407
(Million Gallons)
1,256
1,351
1,450
1,713
1,842
1,967
-457
-491
-517
1,546
2,092
-546
1,641
2,222
-581
1,737
2,350
-613
1,826
2,481
-655
Feedstock in Ethanol Production
Wheat
Corn
Barley
Sugar Beet
Other
3,900
1,800
500
9,240
261
4,864
2,440
749
11,963
261
5,305
2,598
796
12,891
261
5,826
2,810
856
13,820
261
(Thousand Metric Tons)
6,197
6,647
7,108
2,994
3,188
3,420
916
983
1,047
14,896
15,962
17,002
261
261
261
7,487
3,659
1,108
18,170
261
7,962
3,853
1,161
19,082
261
8,414
4,056
1,223
20,045
261
8,736
4,229
1,296
21,265
261
Biodiesel
Production
Consumption
Net Trade
2,477
2,867
-375
2,612
2,883
-269
2,840
3,175
-333
2,888
3,270
-380
(Million Gallons)
2,940
3,002
3,082
3,361
3,447
3,536
-419
-443
-452
3,151
3,612
-460
3,265
3,752
-485
3,371
3,892
-519
3,471
4,032
-559
Feedstock in Biodiesel Production
Rapeseed Oil
Soybean Oil
Sunflower Oil
5,994
1,070
311
6,478
1,044
326
7,074
1,138
354
7,227
1,150
361
(Thousand Metric Tons)
7,394
7,640
7,857
1,170
1,194
1,223
367
375
385
8,036
1,249
393
8,323
1,293
409
8,593
1,333
424
8,853
1,370
438
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
542
618
-86
568
637
-80
590
659
-78
614
679
-75
635
702
-76
Indian Biofuels Production and Consumption
Ethanol
Production
Consumption
Net Trade
2009
2010
2011
2012
298
473
-53
419
505
-91
450
537
-89
476
556
-89
2013
2014
(Million Gallons)
497
519
577
598
-88
-87
World Biofuels: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 327
Indonesian Biofuels Production and Consumption
2009
2010
2011
2012
Biodiesel
Production
Consumption
Net Trade
24
3
21
25
5
20
26
4
22
28
4
24
Feedstock in Biodiesel Production
Palm Oil
84
87
92
98
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
36
4
32
40
4
36
46
4
41
53
5
48
62
5
58
(Thousand Metric Tons)
105
114
126
140
159
184
217
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
-204
-213
-223
-233
-244
-15
-15
-15
-14
-13
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
-160
-170
-180
-191
-202
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
117
19
98
118
20
98
119
20
99
119
20
99
119
20
99
(Thousand Metric Tons)
397
405
409
412
414
416
417
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
-139
-149
-159
-170
-180
-33
-32
-31
-30
-30
(Million Gallons)
30
33
4
4
26
28
Japanese Biofuels Production and Consumption
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Ethanol
Net Trade
-137
-149
-162
-172
(Million Gallons)
-183
-194
Biodiesel
Net Trade
-17
-17
-15
-15
-15
2014
-15
South Korean Biofuels Production and Consumption
Ethanol
Net Trade
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-85
-100
-116
-127
(Million Gallons)
-138
-149
Malaysian Biofuels Production and Consumption
Biodiesel
Production
Consumption
Net Trade
Feedstock in Biodiesel Production
Palm Oil
2009
2010
2011
2012
76
18
58
92
18
74
103
18
85
109
18
91
265
322
359
382
2013
2014
(Million Gallons)
114
116
18
19
95
97
Rest-of-World Biofuels Production and Consumption
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Ethanol
Net Trade
-75
-85
-97
-107
(Million Gallons)
-118
-128
Biodiesel
Net Trade
-174
-35
-34
-34
-33
2014
-33
WORLD MEAT
330 / World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Beef and Veal
World beef trade recovers and is projected to continue to grow by an average rate of 3.1% throughout the decade,
ending at 6.7 mmt in 2019. Responding to the recovery in trade and the growth of the world price, beef production
increases at an annual rate of 1.1% (0.6 mmt) in the next decade, reaching 58.9 mmt in 2019.
Australia loses 1.1 percentage points of market share. Brazil keeps the leading beef exporter position and further
expands its market share by 6.4 points by 2019. Argentina loses 3.0 points of market share as it favors domestic
use over exports, and India loses 0.4 points. Canada loses 2.0 percentage points of market share in beef trade,
while New Zealand gains 0.5 points. China becomes a net importer over the projection period.
Export restrictions and depressed returns as well as a two-year drought lead to a smaller cattle herd and cause
lower beef production in Argentina. But easing of export controls and rising cattle numbers coupled with currency
depreciation throughout the next decade allow Argentina to expand its net exports in the outer years, with exports
reaching 530 tmt in 2019.
Because of volume restrictions imposed by the EU and higher prices in some destinations, Brazil’s beef exports
decreased 10% in 2009. A rebound in economic growth and an expanding cattle herd allow recovery of 6%
annually in the next decade, with exports reaching 2.75 mmt in 2019. Improvement in productivity, favorable
domestic policies, aggressive promotion, and a weakening currency enhance Brazil’s competitiveness.
With slightly lower production and reduced export market demand, Australian net beef exports decline a little in
the short run. Over the rest of the period, Australia posts a 1.6% annual growth rate in its net exports. Exports of
live animals grow by 4.3% annually, reaching 1.30 million head in 2019.
New Zealand benefited from the compromised SPS status of other beef exporters and a weakening currency as
well as from growth in its dairy sector. Despite a decrease in 2010 because of lower production, exports continue
to grow over the rest of the decade at 3.0% annually, reaching 666 tmt in 2019.
Uncertainty over COOL results in weaker Canadian cattle exports despite restoration of live cattle trade with the
U.S. After a drop of 30% in 2009, exports slowly recover, ending at 1.20 million head in 2019. Meat trade is weak
in the short to medium term. Beef net exports begin to increase in 2014 but reach only 221 tmt in 2019.
China has always exported beef in the past, although the volume has been small and declining. In the long run,
however, because of economic growth and its accession to the WTO, China becomes a beef importer, with net
imports reaching 36 tmt in 2019. Domestic production, restricted by poor genetics and limited good pastureland,
is projected to grow 2.4% annually.
EU beef consumption dropped 0.5% in 2009 and will continue to revert to its long-term declining trend. With
maximum decoupling of support in the beef sector, which began in 2007, and shrinking dairy animal numbers,
beef production in the EU declines over the projection period. The EU was already a small net importer beginning
in 2003 and continues in this position for the rest of the decade, importing 408 tmt in 2019.
Japan’s beef imports are significantly reduced because of the higher world price, weak domestic economic
conditions, and a crisis in consumer confidence. A 0.5% decline in production and a 1.4% growth in consumption
fuel expansion of net imports. Imports grow at 2.0% and reach 803 tmt in 2019.
World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 331
Beef and Veal Trade
Net Exporters
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China - Mainland
European Union
India
New Zealand
Thailand
Ukraine
United States
Total Net Exports *
Net Importers
China - Hong Kong
Egypt
Indonesia
Japan
Mexico
Other CIS †
Other Eastern Europe ‡
Paraguay
Philippines
Russia
South Africa
South Korea
Taiwan
Vietnam
Rest of World
Total Net Imports
Nebraska Direct
Fed Steer Price
2009
2010
2011
2012
558
1,383
1,700
205
13
-310
675
514
-1
-8
-382
487
1,353
1,988
186
25
-367
739
496
-6
-11
-366
467
1,399
2,012
175
22
-358
756
531
-3
-22
-347
5,088
5,302
145
138
13
672
255
-39
8
-2
108
688
2
290
110
0
1,958
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
441
1,415
2,168
157
15
-360
765
547
-2
-33
-327
(Thousand Metric Tons)
415
406
409
1,445
1,482
1,516
2,352
2,494
2,624
155
166
184
5
-4
-11
-364
-363
-373
764
760
753
570
594
613
-1
-2
-4
-34
-29
-26
-351
-378
-374
422
1,546
2,704
193
-17
-383
750
629
-7
-23
-327
449
1,570
2,745
200
-23
-392
752
644
-10
-19
-280
487
1,589
2,754
213
-29
-400
758
656
-13
-15
-244
530
1,601
2,747
221
-36
-408
765
666
-15
-10
-204
5,390
5,552
5,763
5,969
6,176
6,333
6,460
6,570
6,659
147
121
26
674
301
-27
7
0
115
738
9
271
113
12
2,018
149
105
27
690
350
-25
4
-4
119
759
6
259
117
12
2,063
152
92
37
719
406
-28
2
-15
127
792
8
255
120
14
2,104
155
87
50
752
459
-29
2
-27
137
813
18
255
124
16
2,146
158
95
60
764
501
-30
1
-38
146
816
32
260
128
20
2,214
161
110
75
780
539
-29
1
-48
157
828
55
271
132
25
2,256
164
123
90
788
573
-31
3
-58
168
838
76
285
137
30
2,299
167
137
105
794
611
-33
6
-67
179
838
97
304
141
36
2,322
171
150
118
799
653
-37
8
-76
191
833
121
325
145
41
2,314
174
164
132
803
697
-44
11
-85
203
829
151
349
150
46
2,277
5,088
5,302
5,390
5,552
5,763
5,969
6,176
6,333
6,460
6,570
6,659
1,823
1,936
2,107
2,229
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
2,258
2,261
2,246
2,232
2,223
2,222
2,219
* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
† Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
‡ Countries included: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Yugoslavia.
332 / World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Pork
Recovering from a 12% drop in 2009, pork trade grows by 2.8% (122 tmt) annually in the next decade, reaching
5.52 mmt in 2019. Pork production increases in the next decade at a rate of 1.9% (1.85 mmt), reaching 115.46
mmt in 2019.
The EU loses 7.0 percentage points of market share, dropping from 30.3% to 23.3%. Also, the long-term
competitiveness of the EU is not very promising, given its appreciating currency and strict animal welfare and
environmental regulations. Canada’s market share decreases by 6.4 percentage points, while the U.S. gains 13.2
percentage points. Despite SPS challenges, Brazil’s long-term prospects are good, with new investments to
improve infrastructure and raise productivity. Brazil’s market share grows by 4.4 percentage points.
Hog inventory in Canada has declined since 2006. It begins to grow in 2011. A shrinking herd and lower industry
returns cause lower production in the short run. Canada’s exports of live hogs to the U.S. decline at 0.8%,
reaching 5.93 million head in 2019, partly because of uncertainty about COOL. Pork net exports decline in the
short run and stay at around 0.9 mmt over the baseline.
Brazil’s pork exports grow by 9.0% annually, reaching 1.1 mmt in 2019. Improvement in productivity, favorable
domestic policies, and a weakening currency improve Brazil’s competitiveness in the world pork market.
Stimulated by increased export refunds, the EU’s net exports jumped by 17.9% in 2008, but they decline after
that and end at 1.2 mmt in 2019. Strict environmental regulations and animal welfare requirements limit the
EU’s long-term capability. Production is stable over the projection period, compared to the 0.2% growth in
consumption.
Taiwan’s pork production declined 11.7% between 1997 and 2008. Constrained by environmental pressures and
high feed costs, production increases at 0.5%, which boosts net imports by 16% per year over the next decade.
Recovery in the beef and poultry sectors impacts Japan’s pork sector. Consumption increases slightly, at 0.5%,
over the next decade, and production also increases, at 1.1%. As a result, net imports decline in the short run but
turn around in 2013 and reach 1.2 mmt in 2019.
Consumption recovery boosted China’s net imports in 2008, with domestic production and consumption
increasing 4% and 5%, respectively. Over the next decade, production grows at 2.8%, falling slightly short of the
3.0% growth in consumption. China’s exports have continued to decline, and the country becomes a net importer
in 2014, as growth in imports exceeds growth in exports. Net imports expand to 138 tmt in 2019.
World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 333
Pork Trade
Net Exporters
Australia
Brazil
Canada
European Union
Other CIS *
Thailand
United States
Total Net Exports †
Net Importers
Argentina
China - Hong Kong
China - Mainland
Indonesia
Japan
Mexico
New Zealand
Other Eastern Europe ‡
Paraguay
Philippines
Russia
South Korea
Taiwan
Ukraine
Vietnam
Rest of World
Total Net Imports
Barrow and Gilt Price, National
Base 51-52% Lean Equivalent
2009
2010
2011
2012
-125
560
960
1,200
-6
0
1,501
-126
652
862
1,153
-10
1
1,618
-111
795
896
851
-24
6
1,655
4,301
4,409
28
345
-80
0
1,210
514
2
11
0
42
749
355
58
240
44
572
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
-103
830
925
807
-27
13
1,716
(Thousand Metric Tons)
-92
-86
-79
834
860
887
932
916
893
917
1,055
1,144
-23
-17
-10
23
26
30
1,796
1,911
2,020
-73
907
858
1,250
-2
36
2,110
-69
957
829
1,282
7
41
2,184
-66
1,010
831
1,267
17
43
2,235
-64
1,071
844
1,220
24
46
2,278
4,335
4,393
4,543
4,788
4,998
5,186
5,328
5,436
5,523
31
349
-120
0
1,179
534
5
13
-4
54
759
477
57
247
51
516
38
350
-122
0
1,103
523
6
12
-9
53
794
531
57
233
64
436
44
355
-87
0
1,084
534
7
11
-14
70
743
584
68
223
95
446
49
365
-22
0
1,107
578
8
9
-18
92
689
650
89
221
115
456
55
374
29
0
1,131
634
8
8
-20
126
665
709
110
228
143
466
60
381
67
0
1,163
698
8
6
-23
158
614
762
129
226
159
476
65
387
97
0
1,190
767
8
6
-25
192
559
809
149
221
172
486
71
391
115
0
1,196
822
8
7
-29
231
522
833
156
221
190
496
77
393
127
0
1,192
867
9
8
-34
274
487
842
158
220
211
506
83
396
138
0
1,184
905
9
10
-39
319
451
842
159
217
231
516
4,301
4,409
4,335
4,393
4,543
4,788
4,998
5,186
5,328
5,436
5,523
909
1,056
1,185
1,233
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
1,178
1,135
1,108
1,093
1,113
1,152
1,189
* Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
† Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
‡ Countries included: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Yugoslavia.
334 / World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Poultry
A lower TRQ in Russia reduces broiler trade in the short run, but trade recovers and grows at a rate of 1.3%
annually. Total broiler production increases by 0.97 mmt, reaching 8.29 mmt in 2019.
The U.S. maintains its market share. The EU remains a net importer. Brazil loses 5.1 points of market share.
After losing 59.4% of its exports because of AI, Thailand regains 2.6 points of market share in the next decade.
Productivity improvements, product innovation, and a shift to higher-valued products enable Thailand to
overcome SPS concerns and its higher cost of production. Australia gains 1.2 points of market share.
Over the rest of the decade, Brazil’s net exports stay at around 3.6 mmt. Fiscal incentives and subsidies from local
government continue to encourage large new investments in broiler production.
In 2009, Thailand’s broiler sector began to recover from the AI crisis that caused a major export drop beginning
in 2004. Recovery is helped by a new TRQ from the EU, expansion of integrated producers, productivity
improvements (low feed conversion ratios), reduced processing costs, investment in production innovation, and
a shift to higher-valued cooked products. Thailand’s net exports increase by 6.5% annually, reaching 635 tmt in
2019.
The EU changed from a net exporter to a net importer in 2007 and it continues in this position. Its net poultry
imports reach 29 tmt in 2019.
Under NAFTA, Mexico removed the global TRQ and its prohibitive out-quota rates. A safeguard agreement was
reached with the U.S., whereby a TRQ for chicken leg quarters is imposed. The product is duty free, but out-quota
is charged a 98.8% duty. The TRQ was removed in 2008. Strong domestic demand drives net imports to grow
2.0% annually and reach 577 tmt in 2019.
With its WTO accession, Taiwan removed its quota and replaced it with a “tariff-only regime” in 2005. As a
result, imports are projected to increase 7.3% annually. They reach 116 tmt in 2019. A shift to differentiated local
breeds sustains domestic production at a growth rate of 1.5% per year.
Russia imposes a lower TRQ of 0.78 mmt over the next decade. Over the outlook period, quota for imports is
binding, as domestic production is encouraged and grows by 3.0%, exceeding the 1.7% growth in consumption. In
the next decade, China’s net imports grow rapidly, reaching 418 tmt in 2019.
World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 335
Broiler Meat Trade
2009
2010
2011
2012
34
3,657
10
385
3,048
53
3,706
-19
464
2,778
95
3,636
-23
466
2,834
7,326
7,211
-169
-17
120
250
6
-1
10
695
480
-4
208
32
0
50
853
615
204
52
67
192
190
3,302
Total Net Imports
U.S. 12-City Price
Net Exporters
Australia
Brazil
European Union
Thailand
United States
Total Net Exports *
Net Importers
Argentina
Canada
China - Mainland
China - Hong Kong
Egypt
India
Indonesia
Japan
Mexico
New Zealand
Other CIS †
Other Eastern Europe ‡
Paraguay
Philippines
Russia
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
South Korea
Taiwan
Ukraine
Vietnam
Rest of World
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
107
3,605
-29
480
2,913
(Thousand Metric Tons)
113
118
121
3,602
3,587
3,575
-29
-21
-21
504
527
549
2,982
3,053
3,131
123
3,556
-23
569
3,229
125
3,577
-25
590
3,332
128
3,578
-26
613
3,442
131
3,579
-29
635
3,536
7,268
7,358
7,474
7,585
7,702
7,819
7,984
8,148
8,292
-193
-10
101
251
8
-1
20
685
467
-7
206
36
2
37
779
618
216
50
80
134
175
3,328
-203
-16
128
253
11
-1
2
659
463
-16
208
35
4
29
779
627
193
59
88
119
171
3,414
-209
-17
162
256
15
-1
-8
664
451
-19
206
35
1
37
779
647
188
65
94
117
176
3,436
-210
-19
204
258
19
-1
-20
679
439
-20
204
35
-2
49
779
660
187
65
97
125
181
3,463
-216
-23
246
261
25
-1
-34
683
438
-21
203
34
-5
64
779
670
188
64
101
133
186
3,491
-223
-28
282
263
32
-1
-45
690
442
-22
200
34
-8
81
779
681
196
64
103
142
192
3,503
-227
-27
318
265
40
-1
-53
698
462
-23
196
35
-11
99
779
694
205
63
107
149
198
3,490
-234
-26
352
267
50
-1
-62
703
495
-23
191
37
-14
118
779
703
215
65
110
154
204
3,517
-246
-26
385
270
62
-1
-74
707
535
-24
185
39
-16
138
779
711
228
66
113
151
210
3,544
-255
-25
418
272
76
-1
-86
712
577
-24
165
42
-19
160
779
720
244
69
116
147
216
3,552
7,326
7,211
7,268
7,358
7,474
7,585
7,702
7,819
7,984
8,148
8,292
1,711
1,717
1,770
1,823
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
1,850
1,878
1,910
1,939
1,964
1,994
2,018
* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
† Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
‡ Countries included: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Yugoslavia.
336 / World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
94.5
61.1
93.5
60.0
92.7
59.1
91.8
59.0
(Million Head)
91.3
91.3
59.9
61.4
60
2,006
72
2,159
76
2,226
22
6,350
59
5,948
Beef
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
11,819
291
12,110
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
Live Cattle Trade
Export
Import
Live Hog Trade
Export
Import
Net Trade
Pork
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
91.7
62.7
92.2
63.6
92.7
63.9
93.0
63.9
93.3
63.8
83
2,262
(Thousand Head)
92
106
128
2,279
2,298
2,327
134
2,324
137
2,306
139
2,302
142
2,296
61
6,018
60
5,958
59
5,995
55
6,070
56
6,031
59
5,969
61
5,957
63
5,933
11,607
252
11,859
11,564
213
11,777
11,475
228
11,703
(Thousand Metric Tons)
11,440
11,419
11,571
232
241
247
11,672
11,659
11,818
11,791
257
12,048
11,998
268
12,267
12,180
280
12,459
12,346
289
12,635
12,240
252
12,492
12,012
213
12,225
11,896
228
12,124
11,798
232
12,031
11,782
241
12,023
11,790
247
12,037
11,934
257
12,191
12,107
268
12,376
12,267
280
12,547
12,413
289
12,703
12,542
297
12,840
-382
-366
-347
-327
-351
-378
-374
-327
-280
-244
-204
10,443
288
10,731
10,296
261
10,556
10,269
255
10,524
10,398
252
10,649
10,672
254
10,927
10,997
264
11,261
11,268
276
11,543
11,445
286
11,731
11,546
292
11,839
11,616
295
11,911
11,705
297
12,002
8,968
261
9,229
8,683
255
8,938
8,618
252
8,870
8,679
254
8,933
8,866
264
9,130
9,075
276
9,351
9,237
286
9,523
9,329
292
9,621
9,359
295
9,654
9,379
297
9,676
9,425
299
9,724
57
6,008
1,501
1,618
1,655
1,716
1,796
1,911
2,020
2,110
2,184
2,235
2,278
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
15,945
338
16,283
16,172
290
16,462
16,510
312
16,822
16,844
321
17,166
17,173
329
17,503
17,489
339
17,828
17,810
343
18,153
18,147
347
18,494
18,497
352
18,848
18,858
356
19,214
19,231
361
19,592
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
12,945
290
13,235
13,373
312
13,685
13,666
321
13,988
13,923
329
14,253
14,182
339
14,521
14,432
343
14,775
14,675
347
15,023
14,913
352
15,265
15,160
356
15,516
15,411
361
15,772
15,690
366
16,056
3,048
2,778
2,834
2,913
2,982
3,053
3,131
3,229
3,332
3,442
3,536
Turkey
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,528
180
2,707
2,534
118
2,652
2,593
129
2,722
2,664
130
2,794
2,729
131
2,859
2,780
133
2,913
2,820
135
2,955
2,850
136
2,986
2,871
138
3,009
2,888
138
3,027
2,904
139
3,042
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,353
118
2,471
2,281
129
2,410
2,337
130
2,466
2,396
131
2,527
2,453
133
2,587
2,499
135
2,634
2,532
136
2,669
2,553
138
2,691
2,567
138
2,705
2,574
139
2,713
2,581
139
2,720
237
242
255
267
273
279
286
295
304
314
322
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
2,258
2,261
2,246
2,232
2,223
2,222
2,219
1,108
1,910
1,093
1,939
1,113
1,964
1,152
1,994
1,189
2,018
(U.S. Dollars per Kilogram)
11.33
11.44
11.43
7.40
7.36
7.32
4.40
4.49
4.57
3.38
3.43
3.47
11.39
7.30
4.64
3.51
11.38
7.47
4.70
3.53
11.37
7.71
4.77
3.57
11.37
7.99
4.82
3.60
Net Trade
Net Trade
Producer Prices
Nebraska Direct Fed Steers
Barrow and Gilt Price, National
Base 51-52% Lean Equivalent
12-City Broiler Wholesale
Retail Prices
Beef
Pork
Broiler
Turkey
1,823
1,936
2,107
2,229
909
1,711
1,056
1,717
1,185
1,770
1,233
1,823
9.39
6.44
3.92
3.08
9.82
6.73
4.01
3.22
10.43
7.13
4.15
3.28
11.00
7.41
4.30
3.33
1,178
1,850
1,135
1,878
World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 337
Argentine Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
54.3
2.4
50.2
2.4
49.1
2.4
48.3
2.5
(Million Head)
47.9
47.8
2.5
2.5
48.0
2.5
48.4
2.5
48.8
2.5
49.4
2.5
50.1
2.6
Beef
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
3,200
0
3,200
3,011
0
3,011
2,990
0
2,990
2,979
0
2,979
(Thousand Metric Tons)
2,979
2,998
3,030
0
0
0
2,979
2,998
3,030
3,073
0
3,073
3,127
0
3,127
3,189
0
3,189
3,256
0
3,256
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,642
0
2,642
2,523
0
2,523
2,523
0
2,523
2,538
0
2,538
2,564
0
2,564
2,591
0
2,591
2,621
0
2,621
2,651
0
2,651
2,679
0
2,679
2,702
0
2,702
2,726
0
2,726
558
487
467
441
415
406
409
422
449
487
530
Pork
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
225
0
225
227
0
227
228
0
228
230
0
230
231
0
231
232
0
232
234
0
234
235
0
235
237
0
237
238
0
238
239
0
239
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
253
0
253
258
0
258
266
0
266
273
0
273
280
0
280
287
0
287
294
0
294
300
0
300
307
0
307
315
0
315
322
0
322
-28
-31
-38
-44
-49
-55
-60
-65
-71
-77
-83
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,500
0
1,500
1,542
0
1,542
1,581
0
1,581
1,619
0
1,619
1,653
0
1,653
1,688
0
1,688
1,724
0
1,724
1,758
0
1,758
1,795
0
1,795
1,834
0
1,834
1,872
0
1,872
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,331
0
1,331
1,350
0
1,350
1,378
0
1,378
1,411
0
1,411
1,443
0
1,443
1,472
0
1,472
1,501
0
1,501
1,531
0
1,531
1,561
0
1,561
1,588
0
1,588
1,617
0
1,617
Net Trade
169
193
203
209
210
216
223
227
234
246
255
Prices
Beef - Farm
Pork - Farm
Broiler - Retail
3.17
2.90
5.55
3.54
3.09
6.02
3.98
3.31
6.59
4.32
3.54
7.07
(Argentine Pesos per Kilogram)
4.50
4.66
4.79
3.72
3.85
4.03
7.43
7.82
8.25
4.91
4.22
8.65
5.06
4.40
9.10
5.26
4.59
9.65
5.45
4.78
10.16
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
Net Trade
Net Trade
2014
338 / World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Australian Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
Sheep Inventories (Beg.)
27.3
2.2
75.1
27.4
2.2
62.2
27.7
2.3
52.3
27.9
2.2
43.5
(Million Head)
28.2
28.7
2.3
2.3
36.6
31.2
29.1
2.3
27.2
29.5
2.3
24.1
29.9
2.2
21.8
30.1
2.2
20.1
30.2
2.2
19.0
Live Cattle Trade
Export
910
915
1,017
1,044
(Thousand Head)
1,087
1,126
1,159
1,191
1,226
1,265
1,304
2,100
115
2,215
2,108
87
2,195
2,151
88
2,239
2,174
87
2,260
(Thousand Metric Tons)
2,212
2,257
2,302
87
87
87
2,299
2,344
2,389
2,342
87
2,430
2,377
88
2,464
2,404
88
2,492
2,426
88
2,513
745
87
832
754
88
841
753
87
840
758
87
845
767
87
854
775
87
862
786
87
873
796
88
884
806
88
894
815
88
903
824
88
912
1,383
1,353
1,399
1,415
1,445
1,482
1,516
1,546
1,570
1,589
1,601
Pork
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
335
33
368
351
26
377
374
26
400
392
26
418
411
26
437
427
26
453
442
26
468
456
26
482
469
26
495
481
26
507
492
26
518
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
467
26
493
477
26
503
485
26
511
495
26
521
503
26
529
513
26
539
521
26
547
529
26
555
538
26
564
547
26
573
556
26
582
-125
-126
-111
-103
-92
-86
-79
-73
-69
-66
-64
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
771
0
771
794
0
794
838
0
838
853
0
853
862
0
862
868
0
868
874
0
874
879
0
879
883
0
883
889
0
889
894
0
894
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
737
0
737
742
0
742
743
0
743
746
0
746
748
0
748
751
0
751
753
0
753
756
0
756
758
0
758
760
0
760
763
0
763
34
53
95
107
113
118
121
123
125
128
131
290
228
265
201
307
219
320
226
(Australian Cents per Kilogram)
325
326
325
233
236
243
324
251
324
256
326
260
327
265
1,339
1,082
385
1,269
993
339
1,384
1,064
366
1,421
1,083
370
1,437
1,156
396
1,436
1,170
402
1,441
1,182
409
1,445
1,194
416
Beef
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
Farm Prices
Beef Saleyard
Pork Saleyard
Retail Prices
Beef
Pork
Poultry
1,437
1,105
376
2014
1,442
1,112
382
1,439
1,133
389
World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 339
Brazilian Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
200.2
33.8
201.2
36.1
202.5
38.0
205.8
38.1
(Million Head)
209.5
213.2
38.1
38.7
Beef
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
9,853
0
9,883
10,200
0
10,230
10,310
0
10,340
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
8,153
0
9,883
8,212
0
10,230
1,700
Pork
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Prices
Beef - Farm
Pork - Farm
Broiler - Wholesale
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
216.7
39.5
219.4
40.0
221.4
40.2
222.8
40.2
223.7
40.1
10,562
0
10,592
(Thousand Metric Tons)
10,861
11,135
11,407
0
0
0
10,891
11,165
11,437
11,633
0
11,663
11,824
0
11,854
11,984
0
12,014
12,128
0
12,158
8,298
0
10,340
8,394
0
10,592
8,509
0
10,891
8,641
0
11,165
8,783
0
11,437
8,929
0
11,663
9,079
0
11,854
9,229
0
12,014
9,381
0
12,158
1,988
2,012
2,168
2,352
2,494
2,624
2,704
2,745
2,754
2,747
3,224
0
3,224
3,402
0
3,402
3,586
0
3,586
3,692
0
3,692
3,800
0
3,800
3,926
0
3,926
4,040
0
4,040
4,143
0
4,143
4,257
0
4,257
4,366
0
4,366
4,484
0
4,484
2,664
0
2,664
2,750
0
2,750
2,790
0
2,790
2,862
0
2,862
2,966
0
2,966
3,066
0
3,066
3,153
0
3,153
3,236
0
3,236
3,300
0
3,300
3,356
0
3,356
3,413
0
3,413
560
652
795
830
834
860
887
907
957
1,010
1,071
11,143
0
11,143
11,441
0
11,441
11,524
0
11,524
11,612
0
11,612
11,692
0
11,692
11,759
0
11,759
11,823
0
11,823
11,888
0
11,888
11,961
0
11,961
12,040
0
12,040
12,118
0
12,118
7,486
0
7,486
7,735
0
7,735
7,888
0
7,888
8,007
0
8,007
8,090
0
8,090
8,171
0
8,171
8,248
0
8,248
8,331
0
8,331
8,383
0
8,383
8,461
0
8,461
8,538
0
8,538
3,657
3,706
3,636
3,605
3,602
3,587
3,575
3,556
3,577
3,578
3,579
6.41
4.21
4.23
6.11
3.80
3.77
6.83
4.12
4.09
7.45
4.55
4.43
(Reals per Kilogram)
7.80
8.05
8.25
4.89
5.11
5.43
4.70
4.94
5.21
8.42
5.76
5.46
8.61
6.04
5.70
8.82
6.29
5.96
9.01
6.54
6.20
340 / World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Canadian Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
13.2
12.2
12.8
10.6
12.4
9.7
12.1
8.9
(Million Head)
12.0
12.0
9.3
9.9
12.1
10.3
12.1
10.2
12.1
10.3
12.2
10.2
12.2
10.1
1,120
50
1,193
51
1,190
52
1,172
52
(Thousand Head)
1,172
1,181
1,209
52
52
51
1,213
50
1,201
51
1,198
51
1,196
51
6,475
2
5,948
2
6,018
2
5,958
2
5,995
2
6,070
2
6,031
2
5,969
2
5,957
2
5,933
2
Beef and Veal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,300
35
1,335
1,279
50
1,329
1,263
50
1,313
1,243
50
1,293
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,240
1,250
1,267
50
50
50
1,290
1,300
1,317
1,280
50
1,329
1,295
50
1,345
1,314
50
1,364
1,329
50
1,380
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,080
50
1,130
1,092
50
1,143
1,088
50
1,138
1,087
50
1,136
1,085
50
1,135
1,084
50
1,134
1,083
50
1,133
1,087
50
1,137
1,095
50
1,145
1,102
50
1,152
1,109
50
1,159
205
186
175
157
155
166
184
193
200
213
221
1,790
60
1,850
1,645
55
1,700
1,681
55
1,736
1,721
55
1,776
1,747
55
1,802
1,747
55
1,802
1,735
55
1,790
1,712
55
1,767
1,691
55
1,746
1,699
55
1,754
1,717
55
1,772
835
55
890
783
55
838
784
55
839
796
55
851
815
55
870
831
55
886
842
55
897
854
55
909
862
55
917
868
55
923
873
55
928
960
862
896
925
932
916
893
858
829
831
844
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
980
37
1,017
996
36
1,032
1,035
36
1,071
1,057
36
1,093
1,072
36
1,108
1,088
36
1,124
1,108
36
1,144
1,120
36
1,156
1,131
36
1,167
1,146
36
1,182
1,162
36
1,198
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
964
36
1,000
986
36
1,022
1,019
36
1,055
1,040
36
1,076
1,053
36
1,089
1,065
36
1,101
1,080
36
1,116
1,092
36
1,128
1,105
36
1,141
1,120
36
1,156
1,136
36
1,172
17
10
16
17
19
23
28
27
26
26
25
94.5
61.4
145.6
92.5
66.5
142.9
100.4
74.9
142.6
(Canadian Dollars per Hundredweight)
104.3
105.5
107.1
110.2
110.5
76.5
72.7
70.7
71.4
71.0
143.4
144.0
145.4
147.2
148.6
108.7
71.6
149.4
108.4
74.1
150.2
108.2
76.8
151.0
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
Live Cattle Trade
Export
Import
Live Hog Trade
Export
Import
Net Trade
Pork
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Prices
Beef and Veal - Farm
Pork - Farm
Broiler - Wholesale
2014
6,008
2
World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 341
Chinese - Mainland Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
106
463
171
105
485
171
105
490
167
105
483
163
105
483
152
105
486
150
105
489
147
105
492
145
106
494
143
Beef
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
5,764
0
5,764
5,551
0
5,551
5,729
0
5,729
5,894
0
5,894
(Thousand Metric Tons)
6,056
6,226
6,401
0
0
0
6,056
6,226
6,401
6,577
0
6,577
6,761
0
6,761
6,952
0
6,952
7,148
0
7,148
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
5,751
0
5,751
5,526
0
5,526
5,707
0
5,707
5,879
0
5,879
6,051
0
6,051
6,229
0
6,229
6,412
0
6,412
6,595
0
6,595
6,784
0
6,784
6,981
0
6,981
7,184
0
7,184
13
25
22
15
5
-4
-11
-17
-23
-29
-36
Pork
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
48,500
0
48,500
49,467
120
49,587
50,590
120
50,710
51,814
120
51,934
53,246
120
53,366
54,808
120
54,928
56,398
120
56,518
57,946
120
58,066
59,466
120
59,586
60,931
120
61,051
62,350
120
62,470
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
48,300
120
48,420
49,347
120
49,467
50,468
120
50,588
51,727
120
51,847
53,223
120
53,343
54,837
120
54,957
56,465
120
56,585
58,043
120
58,163
59,581
120
59,701
61,058
120
61,178
62,487
120
62,607
80
120
122
87
22
-29
-67
-97
-115
-127
-138
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
12,100
0
12,100
12,380
0
12,380
12,701
0
12,701
13,021
0
13,021
13,336
0
13,336
13,654
0
13,654
13,965
0
13,965
14,250
0
14,250
14,521
0
14,521
14,770
0
14,770
14,998
0
14,998
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
12,220
0
12,220
12,481
0
12,481
12,830
0
12,830
13,183
0
13,183
13,540
0
13,540
13,900
0
13,900
14,247
0
14,247
14,568
0
14,568
14,873
0
14,873
15,155
0
15,155
15,415
0
15,415
-120
-101
-128
-162
-204
-246
-282
-318
-352
-385
-418
Producer Prices
Beef
Pork
Poultry
29.86
12.07
13.47
27.61
11.94
13.38
29.74
12.82
14.04
32.33
13.64
14.72
(Yuan per Kilogram)
35.38
38.81
42.64
14.35
15.07
15.90
15.45
16.25
17.17
46.78
16.82
18.16
50.98
17.76
19.14
55.22
18.75
20.15
59.38
19.70
21.10
Retail Prices
Beef
Pork
Poultry
32.96
18.06
13.73
30.55
17.92
13.64
32.84
18.90
14.30
35.61
19.82
14.99
38.88
20.62
15.71
51.10
23.40
18.43
55.60
24.45
19.41
60.15
25.56
20.42
64.61
26.63
21.38
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
Sheep Inventories (Beg.)
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
2013
2014
(Million Head)
105
105
480
481
159
155
42.56
21.43
16.52
46.66
22.36
17.44
342 / World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Chinese - Hong Kong Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2
270
2
276
2
283
2
297
2
339
2
343
2
345
2
345
2
345
185
1,550
180
1,509
170
1,464
158
1,422
134
1,324
129
1,302
125
1,282
121
1,265
117
1,246
15
0
15
15
0
15
14
0
14
13
0
13
(Thousand Metric Tons)
12
11
11
0
0
0
12
11
11
11
0
11
10
0
10
10
0
10
10
0
10
160
0
160
162
0
162
163
0
163
165
0
165
167
0
167
169
0
169
172
0
172
175
0
175
178
0
178
181
0
181
184
0
184
-145
-147
-149
-152
-155
-158
-161
-164
-167
-171
-174
Pork
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
114
0
114
114
0
114
113
0
113
111
0
111
107
0
107
105
0
105
103
0
103
102
0
102
100
0
100
100
0
100
99
0
99
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
459
0
459
464
0
464
463
0
463
466
0
466
473
0
473
479
0
479
484
0
484
489
0
489
492
0
492
493
0
493
495
0
495
-345
-349
-350
-355
-365
-374
-381
-387
-391
-393
-396
10
0
10
18
0
18
21
0
21
22
0
22
22
0
22
22
0
22
22
0
22
23
0
23
23
0
23
23
0
23
24
0
24
260
0
260
270
0
270
274
0
274
277
0
277
280
0
280
283
0
283
285
0
285
288
0
288
290
0
290
293
0
293
296
0
296
Net Trade
-250
-251
-253
-256
-258
-261
-263
-265
-267
-270
-272
Retail Prices
Beef
Pork
Broiler
86.15
64.69
59.25
92.80
75.94
59.77
102.12
85.24
61.91
109.50
89.78
64.27
116.89
85.59
70.34
118.38
87.84
71.79
120.19
91.28
73.33
121.86
94.64
74.68
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
Live Animal Trade
Cattle Import
Swine Import
Beef and Veal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2013
2014
(Thousand Head)
2
2
314
329
148
1,377
140
1,345
(Hong Kong Dollars per Kilogram)
112.69
114.58
115.65
87.92
86.30
85.51
65.80
67.22
68.78
World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 343
Egyptian Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
8.45
7.16
7.63
8.06
(Million Head)
8.42
8.60
Beef and Veal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
450
0
450
487
0
487
518
0
518
545
0
545
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
588
0
588
608
0
608
622
0
622
638
0
638
656
0
656
675
0
675
Net Trade
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
8.69
8.77
8.84
8.92
8.99
(Thousand Metric Tons)
569
580
586
0
0
0
569
580
586
592
0
592
596
0
596
601
0
601
606
0
606
696
0
696
714
0
714
733
0
733
752
0
752
771
0
771
-138
-121
-105
-92
-87
-95
-110
-123
-137
-150
-164
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
537
0
537
560
0
560
578
0
578
595
0
595
609
0
609
622
0
622
634
0
634
642
0
642
650
0
650
656
0
656
660
0
660
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
543
0
543
568
0
568
590
0
590
610
0
610
629
0
629
647
0
647
665
0
665
682
0
682
700
0
700
718
0
718
737
0
737
-6
-8
-11
-15
-19
-25
-32
-40
-50
-62
-76
50.27
8.60
51.76
8.51
54.58
8.67
56.58
8.84
(Pounds per Kilogram)
57.00
57.01
56.72
8.92
9.02
9.13
57.02
9.34
57.29
9.51
57.75
9.72
58.13
9.89
Net Trade
Retail Prices
Beef
Poultry
344 / World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
European Union Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
89
153
89
149
88
145
88
145
87
143
87
143
87
144
87
144
86
145
Beef and Veal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
8,000
0
8,000
7,975
0
7,975
7,971
0
7,971
7,966
0
7,966
(Thousand Metric Tons)
7,967
7,981
7,975
0
0
0
7,967
7,981
7,975
7,977
0
7,977
7,977
0
7,977
7,975
0
7,975
7,972
0
7,972
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
8,310
0
8,310
8,342
0
8,342
8,328
0
8,328
8,325
0
8,325
8,331
0
8,331
8,344
0
8,344
8,348
0
8,348
8,360
0
8,360
8,369
0
8,369
8,375
0
8,375
8,380
0
8,380
-310
-367
-358
-360
-364
-363
-373
-383
-392
-400
-408
Pork
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
22,000
0
22,000
21,886
0
21,886
21,696
0
21,696
21,727
0
21,727
21,864
0
21,864
22,018
0
22,018
22,142
0
22,142
22,291
0
22,291
22,390
0
22,390
22,455
0
22,455
22,489
0
22,489
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
20,800
0
20,800
20,734
0
20,734
20,844
0
20,844
20,920
0
20,920
20,946
0
20,946
20,963
0
20,963
20,998
0
20,998
21,041
0
21,041
21,108
0
21,108
21,188
0
21,188
21,268
0
21,268
1,200
1,153
851
807
917
1,055
1,144
1,250
1,282
1,267
1,220
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
8,620
0
8,620
8,698
0
8,698
8,729
0
8,729
8,772
0
8,772
8,832
0
8,832
8,895
0
8,895
8,939
0
8,939
8,982
0
8,982
9,023
0
9,023
9,061
0
9,061
9,094
0
9,094
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
8,610
0
8,610
8,717
0
8,717
8,752
0
8,752
8,802
0
8,802
8,861
0
8,861
8,916
0
8,916
8,959
0
8,959
9,005
0
9,005
9,048
0
9,048
9,087
0
9,087
9,123
0
9,123
10
-19
-23
-29
-29
-21
-21
-23
-25
-26
-29
Lamb and Mutton
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,021
0
1,021
1,012
0
1,012
1,014
0
1,014
1,019
0
1,019
1,024
0
1,024
1,031
0
1,031
1,038
0
1,038
1,044
0
1,044
1,048
0
1,048
1,052
0
1,052
1,055
0
1,055
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,283
0
1,283
1,275
0
1,275
1,278
0
1,278
1,284
0
1,284
1,291
0
1,291
1,298
0
1,298
1,305
0
1,305
1,310
0
1,310
1,315
0
1,315
1,318
0
1,318
1,322
0
1,322
Net Trade
-262
-263
-264
-265
-267
-267
-267
-267
-267
-267
-267
Farm Prices
Beef
Pork
Poultry
Sheep
319
142
147
449
314
144
133
449
316
143
133
446
320
144
134
444
(Euros per 100 Kilograms)
325
330
334
148
154
157
135
137
139
444
448
446
338
160
140
446
341
161
141
445
344
161
141
444
347
161
142
444
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
2013
2014
(Million Head)
88
88
145
144
World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 345
Indian Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
281
281
281
281
Beef and Veal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,660
0
2,660
2,810
0
2,810
2,850
0
2,850
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,985
0
1,985
2,071
0
2,071
675
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Net Trade
Net Trade
Prices
Beef - Farm
Poultry - Retail
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
285
287
290
294
297
2,889
0
2,889
(Thousand Metric Tons)
2,923
2,958
2,994
0
0
0
2,923
2,958
2,994
3,034
0
3,034
3,078
0
3,078
3,123
0
3,123
3,169
0
3,169
2,094
0
2,094
2,124
0
2,124
2,160
0
2,160
2,198
0
2,198
2,241
0
2,241
2,284
0
2,284
2,326
0
2,326
2,365
0
2,365
2,404
0
2,404
739
756
765
764
760
753
750
752
758
765
2,550
0
2,550
2,629
0
2,629
2,704
0
2,704
2,774
0
2,774
2,841
0
2,841
2,901
0
2,901
2,960
0
2,960
3,016
0
3,016
3,073
0
3,073
3,127
0
3,127
3,180
0
3,180
2,549
0
2,549
2,628
0
2,628
2,703
0
2,703
2,773
0
2,773
2,840
0
2,840
2,900
0
2,900
2,959
0
2,959
3,015
0
3,015
3,072
0
3,072
3,126
0
3,126
3,179
0
3,179
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
52.41
94.02
52.34
90.85
54.97
91.17
57.13
92.26
(Rupees per Kilogram)
58.15
58.45
58.34
93.56
94.66
95.87
58.26
96.99
58.28
98.01
58.45
99.14
58.58
100.08
(Million Head)
281
283
346 / World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Indonesian Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
Sheep Inventories (Beg.)
11.5
6.8
9.3
11.6
7.0
8.7
11.8
7.1
8.8
12.0
7.2
8.4
Live Cattle Import
515
532
583
589
Beef and Veal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
464
0
464
461
0
461
471
0
471
480
0
480
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
477
0
477
486
0
486
498
0
498
517
0
517
536
0
536
554
0
554
-13
-26
-27
-37
-50
Pork
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
578
0
578
592
0
592
608
0
608
622
0
622
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
584
0
584
593
0
593
609
0
609
0
0
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
890
0
890
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
Retail Prices
Beef
Pork
Broiler
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
(Million Head)
12.2
12.4
7.4
7.5
8.8
8.6
12.7
7.6
9.0
12.9
7.7
9.0
13.2
7.8
9.6
13.4
7.9
9.7
13.7
8.1
10.5
(Thousand Head)
615
641
664
685
708
733
758
(Thousand Metric Tons)
487
493
501
0
0
0
487
493
501
508
0
508
515
0
515
522
0
522
528
0
528
575
0
575
598
0
598
620
0
620
640
0
640
660
0
660
-60
-75
-90
-105
-118
-132
633
0
633
643
0
643
653
0
653
663
0
663
674
0
674
683
0
683
692
0
692
622
0
622
634
0
634
644
0
644
654
0
654
664
0
664
674
0
674
683
0
683
693
0
693
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
915
0
915
965
0
965
1,013
0
1,013
1,056
0
1,056
1,094
0
1,094
1,133
0
1,133
1,171
0
1,171
1,209
0
1,209
1,249
0
1,249
1,288
0
1,288
900
0
900
935
0
935
967
0
967
1,005
0
1,005
1,036
0
1,036
1,060
0
1,060
1,088
0
1,088
1,118
0
1,118
1,148
0
1,148
1,175
0
1,175
1,202
0
1,202
-10
-20
-2
8
20
34
45
53
62
74
86
65,401
19,270
19,844
63,211
18,184
18,315
68,025
18,640
18,865
72,022
19,463
19,539
(Rupiah per Kilogram)
74,003
75,031
75,489
20,164
20,495
21,058
20,110
20,610
21,140
75,953
21,685
21,641
76,535
22,151
22,115
77,334
22,539
22,630
78,063
22,933
23,088
World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 347
Japanese Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Wagyu Cows (Beg.)
Dairy Cows (Beg.)
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
4.42
1.17
0.85
9.90
4.43
1.21
0.84
9.90
4.41
1.23
0.84
10.05
4.40
1.23
0.83
10.12
(Million Head)
4.37
4.34
1.22
1.21
0.83
0.82
10.41
10.77
Beef and Veal
Production
Wagyu
Dairy
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
525
221
304
115
640
516
227
289
123
639
518
236
282
122
640
519
242
277
121
640
1,189
221
303
666
123
11
24
88
1,312
1,241
227
289
724
122
11
23
88
1,363
1,259
236
282
741
121
11
23
87
1,381
1,288
242
277
769
121
11
23
87
1,409
1,320
246
272
802
121
11
23
87
1,441
1,331
249
268
814
121
11
23
87
1,452
-672
-674
-690
-719
-752
Pork
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,285
237
1,522
1,286
238
1,524
1,362
228
1,590
1,409
222
1,631
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,494
238
2,732
2,475
228
2,703
2,470
222
2,692
-1,210
-1,179
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,260
176
1,436
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Consumption
Wagyu
Dairy
Imported Beef
Ending Stocks
Wagyu
Dairy
Imported Beef
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
Prices
Wagyu Beef - Farm
Dairy Beef - Farm
Pork - Wholesale
Broiler - Wholesale
Retail Prices
Wagyu Beef
Dairy Beef
Imported Beef
Pork
Broiler
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
4.31
1.21
0.81
10.95
4.28
1.20
0.80
11.03
4.24
1.19
0.79
11.03
4.21
1.19
0.78
10.96
4.17
1.18
0.77
10.87
(Thousand Metric Tons)
518
517
514
246
249
250
272
268
264
121
121
121
639
638
635
511
250
261
121
632
507
250
257
122
629
504
250
254
122
626
500
249
250
122
622
1,344
250
264
829
121
11
23
87
1,465
1,349
250
261
838
122
11
23
88
1,471
1,351
250
257
844
122
11
23
88
1,473
1,352
250
254
849
122
11
23
88
1,475
1,353
249
250
853
122
11
23
88
1,475
-764
-780
-788
-794
-799
-803
1,431
222
1,653
1,438
224
1,663
1,433
226
1,659
1,424
227
1,652
1,421
228
1,649
1,421
227
1,648
1,426
226
1,652
2,494
222
2,715
2,535
224
2,759
2,568
226
2,794
2,595
227
2,823
2,614
228
2,842
2,617
227
2,844
2,614
226
2,840
2,611
225
2,836
-1,103
-1,084
-1,107
-1,131
-1,163
-1,190
-1,196
-1,192
-1,184
1,263
171
1,434
1,292
172
1,464
1,293
171
1,464
1,280
171
1,451
1,274
171
1,445
1,263
171
1,434
1,251
171
1,421
1,238
171
1,409
1,226
171
1,397
1,214
171
1,384
1,960
171
2,131
1,947
172
2,119
1,952
171
2,123
1,957
171
2,128
1,959
171
2,130
1,957
171
2,127
1,953
171
2,124
1,948
171
2,119
1,941
171
2,112
1,933
171
2,104
1,926
171
2,096
-695
-685
-659
-664
-679
-683
-690
-698
-703
-707
-712
1,892
867
425
235
1,734
996
456
218
1,647
1,010
491
230
1,587
1,029
496
234
(Yen per Kilogram)
1,535
1,527
1,535
1,041
1,061
1,083
476
469
466
235
242
248
1,541
1,100
465
253
1,545
1,114
471
257
1,553
1,128
482
262
1,559
1,142
492
266
643
357
192
163
130
602
395
193
172
123
570
416
211
182
126
546
431
218
184
128
525
473
216
175
139
526
478
215
176
141
528
483
215
180
144
530
488
215
182
146
(Yen per 100 Grams)
528
522
442
453
217
218
178
176
129
132
523
464
217
175
136
348 / World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Mexican Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
22.7
9.3
22.2
9.5
21.7
9.4
21.3
9.1
(Million Head)
21.1
21.1
9.2
9.5
21.2
9.7
21.5
9.8
21.7
9.8
21.9
9.7
22.0
9.5
Live Cattle Trade
Export
Import
925
15
991
37
1,061
45
1,115
58
(Thousand Head)
1,132
1,142
1,144
77
106
150
1,136
163
1,130
168
1,129
172
1,125
177
Live Hog Import
10
47
49
48
43
44
47
49
51
Beef and Veal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,625
0
1,625
1,625
0
1,625
1,604
0
1,604
1,577
0
1,577
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,555
1,550
1,557
0
0
0
1,555
1,550
1,557
1,570
0
1,570
1,585
0
1,585
1,599
0
1,599
1,611
0
1,611
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,880
0
1,880
1,926
0
1,926
1,955
0
1,955
1,983
0
1,983
2,014
0
2,014
2,051
0
2,051
2,095
0
2,095
2,143
0
2,143
2,196
0
2,196
2,252
0
2,252
2,308
0
2,308
-255
-301
-350
-406
-459
-501
-539
-573
-611
-653
-697
Pork
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,150
0
1,150
1,164
0
1,164
1,197
0
1,197
1,226
0
1,226
1,238
0
1,238
1,238
0
1,238
1,227
0
1,227
1,210
0
1,210
1,200
0
1,200
1,198
0
1,198
1,202
0
1,202
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,664
0
1,664
1,699
0
1,699
1,721
0
1,721
1,760
0
1,760
1,816
0
1,816
1,872
0
1,872
1,925
0
1,925
1,978
0
1,978
2,023
0
2,023
2,064
0
2,064
2,107
0
2,107
-514
-534
-523
-534
-578
-634
-698
-767
-822
-867
-905
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,810
0
2,810
2,900
0
2,900
3,009
0
3,009
3,106
0
3,106
3,183
0
3,183
3,249
0
3,249
3,314
0
3,314
3,370
0
3,370
3,427
0
3,427
3,483
0
3,483
3,539
0
3,539
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
3,290
0
3,290
3,366
0
3,366
3,472
0
3,472
3,557
0
3,557
3,621
0
3,621
3,687
0
3,687
3,756
0
3,756
3,832
0
3,832
3,922
0
3,922
4,018
0
4,018
4,117
0
4,117
-480
-467
-463
-451
-439
-438
-442
-462
-495
-535
-577
35.41
25.27
21.93
35.41
27.56
20.91
38.79
31.05
21.58
41.63
32.74
22.39
(New Pesos per Kilogram)
42.95
43.95
44.50
31.89
31.40
31.25
23.03
23.74
24.47
44.52
31.05
24.91
44.62
31.80
25.31
44.89
33.09
25.77
45.12
34.35
26.16
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
Prices
Beef and Veal - Wholesale
Pork - Wholesale
Poultry - Retail
47
2014
45
World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 349
New Zealand Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
9.72
0.36
9.81
0.39
9.93
0.40
10.05
0.41
(Million Head)
10.23
10.41
0.41
0.42
Beef and Veal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
634
0
634
616
0
616
649
0
649
664
0
664
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
120
0
120
120
0
120
118
0
118
117
0
117
117
0
117
118
0
118
514
496
531
547
570
Pork
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
51
0
51
50
0
50
51
0
51
52
0
52
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
53
0
53
55
0
55
57
0
57
-2
-5
Poultry
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
150
0
150
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
Farm Prices
Beef and Veal
Pork
Poultry
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
10.55
0.43
10.67
0.44
10.76
0.45
10.82
0.46
10.87
0.47
(Thousand Metric Tons)
687
711
732
0
0
0
687
711
732
748
0
748
763
0
763
776
0
776
787
0
787
118
0
118
119
0
119
120
0
120
120
0
120
121
0
121
594
613
629
644
656
666
53
0
53
54
0
54
56
0
56
57
0
57
58
0
58
59
0
59
60
0
60
59
0
59
61
0
61
62
0
62
63
0
63
65
0
65
66
0
66
68
0
68
69
0
69
-6
-7
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-9
-9
157
0
157
167
0
167
172
0
172
176
0
176
179
0
179
182
0
182
185
0
185
188
0
188
190
0
190
193
0
193
146
0
146
151
0
151
151
0
151
153
0
153
156
0
156
158
0
158
160
0
160
162
0
162
165
0
165
167
0
167
169
0
169
4
7
16
19
20
21
22
23
23
24
24
433
459
255
398
403
225
468
407
248
514
416
277
514
416
282
516
416
287
518
416
291
(New Zealand Dollars per 100 Kilograms)
506
513
516
515
415
412
416
416
259
263
268
273
350 / World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Other CIS Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
25.3
5.8
26.0
5.5
26.3
5.4
27.1
5.4
(Million Head)
27.7
28.3
5.5
5.6
28.9
5.7
29.4
5.8
30.0
6.0
30.5
6.1
31.0
6.2
Beef and Veal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,650
0
1,650
1,657
0
1,657
1,672
0
1,672
1,694
0
1,694
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,717
1,740
1,762
0
0
0
1,717
1,740
1,762
1,786
0
1,786
1,809
0
1,809
1,834
0
1,834
1,861
0
1,861
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,611
0
1,611
1,630
0
1,630
1,647
0
1,647
1,666
0
1,666
1,688
0
1,688
1,711
0
1,711
1,733
0
1,733
1,755
0
1,755
1,776
0
1,776
1,797
0
1,797
1,817
0
1,817
39
27
25
28
29
30
29
31
33
37
44
Pork
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
675
0
675
671
0
671
666
0
666
672
0
672
685
0
685
701
0
701
717
0
717
733
0
733
751
0
751
769
0
769
786
0
786
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
681
0
681
681
0
681
691
0
691
699
0
699
708
0
708
718
0
718
727
0
727
736
0
736
744
0
744
753
0
753
761
0
761
-6
-10
-24
-27
-23
-17
-10
-2
7
17
24
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
320
0
320
326
0
326
336
0
336
349
0
349
362
0
362
375
0
375
389
0
389
404
0
404
419
0
419
435
0
435
466
0
466
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
528
0
528
532
0
532
544
0
544
554
0
554
566
0
566
578
0
578
589
0
589
600
0
600
610
0
610
620
0
620
630
0
630
-208
-206
-208
-206
-204
-203
-200
-196
-191
-185
-165
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
2014
Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 351
Other Eastern European Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
1.92
2.61
1.80
2.07
1.85
2.14
1.88
2.21
(Million Head)
1.91
1.94
2.29
2.37
Beef and Veal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
106
0
106
108
0
108
110
0
110
112
0
112
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
115
0
115
114
0
114
114
0
114
115
0
115
116
0
116
117
0
117
-8
-7
-4
-2
-2
Pork
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
86
0
86
88
0
88
91
0
91
94
0
94
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
99
0
99
101
0
101
102
0
102
-11
-13
69
0
69
Net Trade
Net Trade
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
1.96
2.45
1.96
2.50
1.95
2.52
1.93
2.53
1.92
2.53
(Thousand Metric Tons)
114
116
117
0
0
0
114
116
117
117
0
117
116
0
116
115
0
115
115
0
115
119
0
119
121
0
121
122
0
122
124
0
124
125
0
125
-1
-1
-3
-6
-8
-11
97
0
97
100
0
100
104
0
104
106
0
106
107
0
107
107
0
107
107
0
107
104
0
104
106
0
106
108
0
108
110
0
110
112
0
112
114
0
114
115
0
115
117
0
117
-12
-11
-9
-8
-6
-6
-7
-8
-10
70
0
70
72
0
72
74
0
74
76
0
76
79
0
79
81
0
81
82
0
82
83
0
83
82
0
82
82
0
82
105
0
105
106
0
106
108
0
108
110
0
110
112
0
112
113
0
113
115
0
115
117
0
117
120
0
120
122
0
122
124
0
124
-32
-36
-35
-35
-35
-34
-34
-35
-37
-39
-42
Countries included: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Yugoslavia.
2014
352 / World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Paraguayan Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
10.5
1.6
10.6
1.7
10.9
1.7
11.4
1.9
(Million Head)
12.0
12.7
1.9
2.0
Beef and Veal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
220
0
220
223
0
223
229
0
229
241
0
241
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
218
0
218
223
0
223
225
0
225
226
0
226
226
0
226
228
0
228
2
0
4
15
27
Pork
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
105
0
105
109
0
109
115
0
115
122
0
122
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
105
0
105
105
0
105
106
0
106
0
4
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
43
0
43
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
13.3
2.1
13.8
2.2
14.4
2.2
15.0
2.3
15.6
2.4
(Thousand Metric Tons)
253
266
279
0
0
0
253
266
279
291
0
291
303
0
303
315
0
315
327
0
327
231
0
231
233
0
233
236
0
236
239
0
239
243
0
243
38
48
58
67
76
85
127
0
127
132
0
132
137
0
137
141
0
141
146
0
146
152
0
152
159
0
159
107
0
107
110
0
110
112
0
112
114
0
114
116
0
116
117
0
117
118
0
118
120
0
120
9
14
18
20
23
25
29
34
39
42
0
42
42
0
42
45
0
45
49
0
49
52
0
52
56
0
56
59
0
59
63
0
63
66
0
66
69
0
69
43
0
43
44
0
44
46
0
46
46
0
46
47
0
47
47
0
47
48
0
48
48
0
48
49
0
49
50
0
50
51
0
51
0
-2
-4
-1
2
5
8
11
14
16
19
World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 353
Philippine Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
5.5
15.9
5.4
18.1
5.4
19.9
5.4
21.1
(Million Head)
5.5
5.5
22.1
22.8
40
43
47
49
Beef and Veal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
220
0
220
220
0
220
224
0
224
227
0
227
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
328
0
328
335
0
335
343
0
343
354
0
354
366
0
366
378
0
378
-108
-115
-119
-127
-137
Pork
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,225
0
1,225
1,261
0
1,261
1,294
11
1,305
1,318
11
1,329
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,267
0
1,267
1,304
11
1,315
1,347
11
1,358
-42
-54
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
725
0
725
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
Live Cattle Trade
Import
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
Farm Prices
Beef and Veal
Pork
Poultry
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
5.6
23.5
5.7
24.0
5.7
24.4
5.8
24.7
5.8
25.0
58
61
64
68
73
(Thousand Metric Tons)
229
232
235
0
0
0
229
232
235
238
0
238
241
0
241
243
0
243
245
0
245
392
0
392
406
0
406
420
0
420
434
0
434
448
0
448
-146
-157
-168
-179
-191
-203
1,338
11
1,349
1,349
11
1,360
1,361
11
1,372
1,371
11
1,382
1,378
11
1,389
1,384
11
1,395
1,388
11
1,399
1,388
11
1,399
1,430
11
1,441
1,475
11
1,486
1,519
11
1,530
1,563
11
1,574
1,609
11
1,620
1,657
11
1,668
1,707
11
1,718
-53
-70
-92
-126
-158
-192
-231
-274
-319
768
0
768
803
0
803
824
0
824
840
0
840
853
0
853
865
0
865
877
0
877
888
0
888
899
0
899
909
0
909
775
0
775
805
0
805
832
0
832
861
0
861
889
0
889
917
0
917
946
0
946
976
0
976
1,006
0
1,006
1,036
0
1,036
1,069
0
1,069
-50
-37
-29
-37
-49
-64
-81
-99
-118
-138
-160
76.11
82.61
81.65
77.80
81.88
80.29
82.40
84.42
82.77
85.59
88.21
85.05
(Pesos per Kilogram)
87.08
87.94
88.32
91.55
93.23
96.21
87.09
89.14
91.37
88.77
99.64
93.57
89.37
102.28
95.72
90.23
104.59
98.14
91.10
107.05
100.42
(Thousand Head)
52
55
354 / World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Russian Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
17.9
19.6
17.5
20.2
17.0
20.1
16.6
19.7
(Million Head)
16.4
16.2
19.4
19.4
16.1
19.8
16.0
20.0
15.9
20.1
15.8
20.2
15.7
20.4
Beef and Veal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,280
0
1,280
1,281
0
1,281
1,240
0
1,240
1,216
0
1,216
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,195
1,184
1,177
0
0
0
1,195
1,184
1,177
1,173
0
1,173
1,171
0
1,171
1,171
0
1,171
1,171
0
1,171
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,968
0
1,968
2,019
0
2,019
1,999
0
1,999
2,009
0
2,009
2,008
0
2,008
2,000
0
2,000
2,005
0
2,005
2,011
0
2,011
2,009
0
2,009
2,004
0
2,004
2,000
0
2,000
-688
-738
-759
-792
-813
-816
-828
-838
-838
-833
-829
Pork
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,205
0
2,205
2,263
0
2,263
2,322
0
2,322
2,397
0
2,397
2,465
0
2,465
2,521
0
2,521
2,590
0
2,590
2,658
0
2,658
2,717
0
2,717
2,776
0
2,776
2,835
0
2,835
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,954
0
2,954
3,022
0
3,022
3,116
0
3,116
3,140
0
3,140
3,154
0
3,154
3,186
0
3,186
3,204
0
3,204
3,217
0
3,217
3,240
0
3,240
3,263
0
3,263
3,286
0
3,286
-749
-759
-794
-743
-689
-665
-614
-559
-522
-487
-451
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,790
55
1,845
1,956
33
1,989
2,036
33
2,069
2,103
33
2,136
2,146
33
2,179
2,176
33
2,209
2,207
33
2,240
2,240
33
2,273
2,271
33
2,304
2,301
33
2,334
2,332
33
2,365
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
2,665
33
2,698
2,734
33
2,767
2,815
33
2,848
2,882
33
2,915
2,924
33
2,957
2,954
33
2,987
2,986
33
3,019
3,019
33
3,052
3,050
33
3,083
3,080
33
3,113
3,110
33
3,143
Net Trade
-853
-779
-779
-779
-779
-779
-779
-779
-779
-779
-779
Farm Prices
Beef and Veal
Pork
Poultry
120
90
75
122
87
83
132
93
84
140
100
88
(Rubles per Kilogram)
143
146
146
105
106
109
90
92
95
147
113
97
147
115
99
148
116
101
149
117
102
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
Net Trade
Net Trade
2014
World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 355
Saudi Arabian Meat Supply and Utilization
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Wholesale Price
Poultry
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
570
0
570
602
0
602
633
0
633
655
0
655
(Thousand Metric Tons)
677
695
712
0
0
0
677
695
712
729
0
729
746
0
746
764
0
764
781
0
781
1,185
0
1,185
1,219
0
1,219
1,260
0
1,260
1,302
0
1,302
1,337
0
1,337
1,365
0
1,365
1,393
0
1,393
1,422
0
1,422
1,449
0
1,449
1,475
0
1,475
1,501
0
1,501
-615
-618
-627
-647
-660
-670
-681
-694
-703
-711
-720
5.88
5.90
6.08
6.26
(Riyals per Kilogram)
6.35
6.45
6.56
6.66
6.74
6.84
6.91
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
15.0
15.1
15.1
15.0
14.9
(Thousand Metric Tons)
706
708
706
0
0
0
706
708
706
701
0
701
696
0
696
691
0
691
685
0
685
South African Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
14.2
14.3
14.5
14.6
(Million Head)
14.7
14.9
Beef and Veal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
684
0
684
680
0
680
689
0
689
700
0
700
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
686
0
686
689
0
689
695
0
695
708
0
708
724
0
724
740
0
740
761
0
761
777
0
777
793
0
793
812
0
812
836
0
836
-2
-9
-6
-8
-18
-32
-55
-76
-97
-121
-151
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,178
0
1,178
1,194
0
1,194
1,239
0
1,239
1,275
0
1,275
1,302
0
1,302
1,327
0
1,327
1,349
0
1,349
1,370
0
1,370
1,392
0
1,392
1,414
0
1,414
1,435
0
1,435
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,382
0
1,382
1,409
0
1,409
1,433
0
1,433
1,463
0
1,463
1,490
0
1,490
1,514
0
1,514
1,544
0
1,544
1,575
0
1,575
1,607
0
1,607
1,642
0
1,642
1,679
0
1,679
Net Trade
-204
-216
-193
-188
-187
-188
-196
-205
-215
-228
-244
Prices
Beef - Farm
Poultry - Retail
70.21
22.36
66.16
18.55
72.73
19.70
78.37
20.91
(Rand per Kilogram)
81.56
84.08
85.74
21.88
22.86
23.82
87.45
24.76
89.33
25.69
91.51
26.71
93.70
27.68
Net Trade
2014
356 / World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
South Korean Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
2.88
8.22
3.05
8.20
3.15
7.90
3.25
7.26
(Million Head)
3.33
3.38
7.00
7.04
3.40
7.13
3.40
7.15
3.38
7.12
3.33
7.04
3.27
6.98
Beef
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
288
15
303
298
40
338
310
40
350
323
40
363
(Thousand Metric Tons)
333
338
340
40
40
40
372
378
380
340
40
380
337
40
377
332
40
372
326
40
366
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
553
40
593
569
40
609
569
40
609
578
40
618
588
40
628
598
40
638
611
40
651
625
40
665
640
40
680
658
40
698
675
40
715
-290
-271
-259
-255
-255
-260
-271
-285
-304
-325
-349
Pork
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,016
144
1,160
956
100
1,056
917
108
1,025
894
109
1,004
883
111
993
875
114
988
864
117
981
853
120
973
846
122
968
847
123
969
853
122
976
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,415
100
1,515
1,425
108
1,533
1,446
109
1,556
1,477
111
1,587
1,530
114
1,643
1,581
117
1,698
1,624
120
1,743
1,659
122
1,781
1,679
123
1,802
1,688
122
1,811
1,696
122
1,818
-355
-477
-531
-584
-650
-709
-762
-809
-833
-842
-842
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
605
0
605
638
0
638
647
0
647
654
0
654
660
0
660
664
0
664
669
0
669
673
0
673
678
0
678
683
0
683
687
0
687
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
663
0
663
694
0
694
713
0
713
724
0
724
730
0
730
735
0
735
738
0
738
743
0
743
748
0
748
755
0
755
762
0
762
-52
-50
-59
-65
-65
-64
-64
-63
-65
-66
-69
Farm Prices
Beef
4,461
5,507
5,456
(1000 Won per 500 Kilograms, Liveweight)
5,577
5,648
5,665
5,640
5,620
5,608
5,613
5,612
Pork
Poultry
3,350
1,682
2,800
1,370
2,857
1,289
2,874
1,284
(Won per Kilogram, Liveweight)
2,754
2,661
2,606
1,303
1,324
1,348
2,579
1,371
2,629
1,390
2,719
1,413
2,806
1,430
31,702
7,217
5,100
37,689
6,260
3,898
39,305
6,174
3,486
40,404
6,171
3,388
(Won per Kilogram)
41,053
41,226
41,008
5,916
5,663
5,487
3,406
3,448
3,504
40,702
5,382
3,558
40,425
5,438
3,606
40,262
5,605
3,658
40,095
5,787
3,700
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
Retail Prices
Beef
Pork
Poultry
2014
World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 357
Taiwanese Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
0.19
6.79
0.16
6.40
0.17
5.76
0.17
5.24
(Million Head)
0.17
0.17
5.09
5.18
0.16
5.30
0.16
5.37
0.16
5.40
0.16
5.35
0.16
5.28
6
0
6
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
116
0
116
118
0
118
122
0
122
126
0
126
129
0
129
133
0
133
137
0
137
142
0
142
146
0
146
150
0
150
155
0
155
-110
-113
-117
-120
-124
-128
-132
-137
-141
-145
-150
Pork
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
900
0
900
902
0
902
907
0
907
912
0
912
918
0
918
922
0
922
924
0
924
923
0
923
929
0
929
937
0
937
947
0
947
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
958
0
958
959
0
959
964
0
964
980
0
980
1,006
0
1,006
1,031
0
1,031
1,053
0
1,053
1,072
0
1,072
1,085
0
1,085
1,095
0
1,095
1,106
0
1,106
-58
-57
-57
-68
-89
-110
-129
-149
-156
-158
-159
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
507
0
507
518
0
518
529
0
529
539
0
539
547
0
547
552
0
552
558
0
558
563
0
563
570
0
570
577
0
577
584
0
584
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
574
0
574
598
0
598
617
0
617
633
0
633
644
0
644
653
0
653
661
0
661
670
0
670
679
0
679
690
0
690
700
0
700
Net Trade
-67
-80
-88
-94
-97
-101
-103
-107
-110
-113
-116
Retail Prices
Beef and Veal
Pork
Poultry
259
155
128
263
170
115
276
184
119
(New Taiwan Dollars per Kilogram)
279
277
272
267
188
182
177
173
120
120
120
121
261
170
122
258
172
123
256
175
125
254
178
126
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
Beef and Veal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
2014
(Thousand Metric Tons)
5
5
0
0
5
5
358 / World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Thai Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
5.61
6.14
5.67
6.21
5.81
6.37
5.97
6.56
(Million Head)
6.12
6.24
6.76
6.91
Beef and Veal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
198
0
198
200
0
200
205
0
205
211
0
211
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
199
0
199
206
0
206
209
0
209
213
0
213
217
0
217
222
0
222
-1
-6
-3
-2
-1
Pork
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
700
0
700
708
0
708
727
0
727
748
0
748
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
700
0
700
707
0
707
721
0
721
0
1
1,200
21
1,221
Net Trade
Net Trade
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Wholesale Prices
Beef and Veal
Pork
Poultry
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
6.34
7.07
6.43
7.24
6.51
7.41
6.59
7.55
6.66
7.70
(Thousand Metric Tons)
216
220
224
0
0
0
216
220
224
227
0
227
230
0
230
233
0
233
235
0
235
228
0
228
234
0
234
240
0
240
245
0
245
250
0
250
-2
-4
-7
-10
-13
-15
771
0
771
788
0
788
806
0
806
826
0
826
845
0
845
862
0
862
878
0
878
735
0
735
747
0
747
762
0
762
776
0
776
790
0
790
804
0
804
819
0
819
832
0
832
6
13
23
26
30
36
41
43
46
1,295
31
1,326
1,312
31
1,343
1,343
31
1,374
1,382
31
1,413
1,419
31
1,450
1,455
31
1,486
1,491
31
1,522
1,528
31
1,559
1,565
31
1,596
1,601
31
1,632
805
31
836
831
31
862
846
31
877
863
31
894
878
31
909
892
31
923
907
31
938
923
31
954
938
31
969
952
31
983
966
31
997
385
464
466
480
504
527
549
569
590
613
635
93.9
66.6
36.2
96.3
65.6
35.2
104.1
67.8
36.6
108.8
70.6
37.5
(Baht per Kilogram)
111.1
112.2
112.4
73.4
74.6
77.0
38.6
39.6
40.7
112.7
79.7
41.7
113.3
81.6
42.7
114.1
83.2
43.8
114.9
84.8
44.8
World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 359
Ukrainian Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
5.1
6.5
5.0
7.2
4.9
7.7
4.8
8.1
4.8
8.9
4.9
9.1
4.9
9.3
5.0
9.5
5.0
9.6
Beef and Veal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
400
15
415
378
15
393
371
15
386
366
15
381
(Thousand Metric Tons)
367
371
374
15
15
15
382
386
389
378
15
393
383
15
398
389
15
404
396
15
411
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
408
15
423
389
15
404
393
15
408
399
15
414
401
15
416
400
15
415
400
15
415
402
15
417
402
15
417
404
15
419
406
15
421
-8
-11
-22
-33
-34
-29
-26
-23
-19
-15
-10
Pork
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
490
22
512
529
22
551
564
22
586
593
22
615
615
23
638
632
23
654
649
23
672
667
23
690
683
23
706
699
23
723
716
24
740
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
730
22
752
775
22
798
796
22
819
816
23
838
836
23
859
859
23
882
875
23
898
889
23
912
904
23
927
919
24
942
933
24
957
-240
-247
-233
-223
-221
-228
-226
-221
-221
-220
-217
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
620
0
620
668
0
668
702
0
702
729
0
729
746
0
746
759
0
759
770
0
770
781
0
781
792
0
792
807
0
807
824
0
824
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
812
0
812
802
0
802
822
0
822
846
0
846
871
0
871
892
0
892
911
0
911
929
0
929
946
0
946
958
0
958
971
0
971
Net Trade
-192
-134
-119
-117
-125
-133
-142
-149
-154
-151
-147
Farm Prices
Beef and Veal
Pork
Poultry
12.17
49.06
46.91
11.63
49.83
47.26
11.23
49.61
46.98
10.98
51.13
47.43
(Hryvnias per Kilogram)
10.99
11.13
11.13
51.81
51.38
51.74
47.28
47.11
47.02
11.13
52.76
47.27
11.13
53.16
47.40
11.13
53.73
47.98
11.13
54.33
48.44
Net Trade
Net Trade
2013
2014
(Million Head)
4.8
4.8
8.4
8.6
360 / World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Vietnamese Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
6.8
28.6
6.8
29.3
6.9
31.3
7.1
31.1
(Million Head)
7.3
7.4
31.0
31.1
Beef and Veal
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
166
0
166
164
0
164
167
0
167
172
0
172
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
166
0
166
177
0
177
179
0
179
185
0
185
193
0
193
200
0
200
0
-12
-12
-14
-16
Pork
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1,850
0
1,850
1,814
0
1,814
1,840
0
1,840
1,845
0
1,845
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,894
0
1,894
1,864
0
1,864
1,904
0
1,904
-44
-51
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
340
0
340
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
7.6
31.5
7.7
31.7
7.9
31.9
8.0
32.1
8.2
32.5
(Thousand Metric Tons)
176
180
184
0
0
0
176
180
184
188
0
188
191
0
191
195
0
195
198
0
198
209
0
209
218
0
218
227
0
227
235
0
235
244
0
244
-20
-25
-30
-36
-41
-46
1,858
0
1,858
1,867
0
1,867
1,886
0
1,886
1,906
0
1,906
1,924
0
1,924
1,940
0
1,940
1,957
0
1,957
1,940
0
1,940
1,973
0
1,973
2,010
0
2,010
2,045
0
2,045
2,078
0
2,078
2,114
0
2,114
2,151
0
2,151
2,188
0
2,188
-64
-95
-115
-143
-159
-172
-190
-211
-231
355
0
355
368
0
368
375
0
375
381
0
381
385
0
385
389
0
389
394
0
394
399
0
399
404
0
404
408
0
408
530
0
530
530
0
530
540
0
540
551
0
551
562
0
562
571
0
571
581
0
581
592
0
592
603
0
603
613
0
613
624
0
624
-190
-175
-171
-176
-181
-186
-192
-198
-204
-210
-216
World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 361
Rest-of-World Meat Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
366.6
127.9
366.5
121.1
398.6
118.2
401.6
116.7
(Million Head)
403.5
404.0
115.0
113.1
Beef and Veal
Production
Beginning Stocks
8,255
0
8,333
0
8,396
0
8,436
0
Consumption
Ending Stocks
10,213
0
10,351
0
10,459
0
10,540
0
10,593
0
10,661
0
Net Trade
-1,958
-2,018
-2,063
-2,104
-2,146
Pork
Production
Beginning Stocks
16,508
0
15,637
0
15,260
0
15,066
0
Consumption
Ending Stocks
17,074
0
16,153
0
15,696
0
-572
-516
7,920
0
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Net Trade
Net Trade
Broiler
Production
Beginning Stocks
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
404.1
111.5
403.8
110.2
403.5
109.5
403.4
109.6
403.4
110.3
(Thousand Metric Tons)
8,447
8,447
8,441
0
0
0
8,436
0
8,434
0
8,433
0
8,433
0
10,698
0
10,736
0
10,756
0
10,748
0
10,710
0
-2,214
-2,256
-2,299
-2,322
-2,314
-2,277
14,838
0
14,602
0
14,390
0
14,220
0
14,139
0
14,150
0
14,233
0
15,512
0
15,294
0
15,068
0
14,866
0
14,706
0
14,635
0
14,656
0
14,749
0
-436
-446
-456
-466
-476
-486
-496
-506
-516
7,456
0
7,531
0
7,817
0
8,148
0
8,446
0
8,730
0
9,029
0
9,339
0
9,661
0
9,999
0
11,222
0
10,784
0
10,946
0
11,253
0
11,611
0
11,937
0
12,233
0
12,520
0
12,857
0
13,206
0
13,551
0
-3,302
-3,328
-3,414
-3,436
-3,463
-3,491
-3,503
-3,490
-3,517
-3,544
-3,552
362 / World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Per Capita Meat Consumption of Selected Countries
Argentina
Beef and Veal
Pork
Broiler
Total
Australia
Beef and Veal
Pork
Broiler
Total
Brazil
Beef and Veal
Pork
Broiler
Total
Canada
Beef and Veal
Pork
Broiler
Total
China - Mainland
Beef and Veal
Pork
Broiler
Lamb-Mutton
Total
China - Hong Kong
Beef and Veal
Pork
Broiler
Total
Egypt
Beef and Veal
Broiler
Total
European Union
Beef and Veal
Pork
Broiler
Lamb-Mutton
Total
India
Beef and Veal
Broiler
Total
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
63.9
6.1
32.2
60.4
6.2
32.3
59.8
6.3
32.7
59.6
6.4
33.1
59.6
6.5
33.5
102.2
98.9
98.8
99.1
99.7
34.6
21.7
34.3
34.6
21.9
34.1
34.2
22.0
33.8
34.1
22.2
33.5
90.6
90.6
90.0
41.0
13.4
37.7
40.8
13.7
38.5
92.1
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
59.8
6.7
34.2
59.9
6.8
34.6
60.0
6.9
35.0
60.0
7.0
35.3
60.1
7.1
35.6
100.2
100.7
101.4
101.9
102.3
102.8
34.1
22.4
33.2
34.1
22.5
33.0
34.2
22.7
32.8
34.3
22.8
32.5
34.3
22.9
32.3
34.4
23.1
32.1
34.4
23.2
31.9
89.8
89.7
89.6
89.6
89.6
89.6
89.5
89.5
40.8
13.7
38.8
40.8
13.9
38.9
40.9
14.3
38.9
41.1
14.6
38.9
41.4
14.8
38.8
41.6
15.1
38.8
41.9
15.2
38.7
42.2
15.3
38.7
42.5
15.5
38.7
93.0
93.3
93.6
94.1
94.6
95.1
95.6
95.9
96.3
96.7
32.0
24.7
28.6
32.1
23.0
29.0
31.7
22.9
29.7
31.4
23.0
30.1
31.1
23.4
30.2
30.9
23.7
30.3
30.6
23.8
30.6
30.5
24.0
30.7
30.5
24.0
30.8
30.5
24.0
31.0
30.5
24.0
31.2
85.3
84.1
84.3
84.5
84.8
84.9
85.0
85.1
85.3
85.5
85.7
4.3
36.3
9.2
1.8
4.1
36.9
9.3
1.8
4.2
37.6
9.6
1.9
4.4
38.3
9.8
1.9
4.5
39.3
10.0
1.9
4.6
40.3
10.2
1.9
4.7
41.3
10.4
2.0
4.8
42.3
10.6
2.0
4.9
43.3
10.8
2.1
5.1
44.2
11.0
2.1
5.2
45.1
11.1
2.1
51.7
52.2
53.2
54.3
55.6
57.0
58.4
59.7
61.1
62.3
63.6
22.6
64.7
36.7
22.7
65.1
37.9
22.8
64.7
38.3
22.9
64.8
38.6
23.1
65.5
38.8
23.4
66.2
39.1
23.7
66.7
39.3
24.0
67.2
39.5
24.3
67.4
39.8
24.7
67.4
40.1
25.1
67.5
40.3
124.0
125.7
125.8
126.3
127.5
128.6
129.7
130.7
131.5
132.2
132.9
7.3
6.7
7.4
6.9
7.4
7.0
7.5
7.1
7.6
7.2
7.6
7.3
7.7
7.4
7.8
7.4
7.9
7.5
7.9
7.6
8.0
7.7
14.0
14.3
14.5
14.6
14.8
14.9
15.1
15.2
15.4
15.5
15.7
16.9
42.2
17.5
2.6
16.9
42.1
17.7
2.6
16.9
42.3
17.7
2.6
16.9
42.4
17.8
2.6
16.9
42.4
17.9
2.6
16.9
42.4
18.0
2.6
16.9
42.5
18.1
2.6
16.9
42.6
18.2
2.7
16.9
42.7
18.3
2.7
17.0
42.9
18.4
2.7
17.0
43.1
18.5
2.7
79.2
79.3
79.5
79.7
79.9
80.0
80.2
80.4
80.6
80.9
81.2
1.7
2.2
1.7
2.2
1.7
2.2
1.7
2.3
1.7
2.3
1.8
2.3
1.8
2.3
1.8
2.4
1.8
2.4
1.8
2.4
1.8
2.4
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.2
(Kilograms)
59.7
6.6
33.9
Note: Carcass weight basis for beef and veal and pork consumption and ready-to-cook equivalent for broiler and poultry consumption.
World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 363
Per Capita Meat Consumption of Selected Countries (continued)
Indonesia
Beef and Veal
Pork
Broiler
Lamb
Total
Japan
Beef and Veal - All
Wagyu
Dairy
Import
Pork
Broiler
Total
Mexico
Beef and Veal
Pork
Broiler
Total
New Zealand
Beef and Veal
Pork
Broiler
Total
Other Eastern Europe
Beef and Veal
Pork
Poultry
Total
Other CIS
Beef and Veal
Pork
Poultry
Total
Paraguay
Beef and Veal
Pork
Broiler
Total
Philippines
Beef and Veal
Pork
Broiler
Total
Russia
Beef and Veal
Pork
Broiler
Total
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2.0
2.4
3.7
0.3
2.0
2.4
3.8
0.3
2.0
2.5
3.9
0.3
2.1
2.5
4.0
0.3
2.1
2.5
4.1
0.3
8.4
8.5
8.7
8.9
9.0
9.4
1.7
2.4
5.2
19.7
15.5
9.8
1.8
2.3
5.7
19.6
15.4
10.0
1.9
2.2
5.9
19.6
15.5
10.2
1.9
2.2
6.1
19.8
15.6
44.5
44.8
45.1
16.7
14.8
29.3
16.9
14.9
29.6
60.8
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2.2
2.5
4.2
0.3
2.3
2.5
4.3
0.4
2.4
2.6
4.4
0.4
2.4
2.6
4.4
0.4
2.5
2.6
4.5
0.4
9.2
9.3
9.5
9.6
9.8
9.9
10.5
2.0
2.2
6.4
20.2
15.6
10.7
2.0
2.1
6.5
20.6
15.7
10.8
2.0
2.1
6.7
20.9
15.7
10.9
2.0
2.1
6.8
21.1
15.8
11.0
2.0
2.1
6.9
21.3
15.8
11.1
2.0
2.1
6.9
21.4
15.8
11.1
2.1
2.1
7.0
21.5
15.8
45.7
46.4
47.0
47.5
47.8
48.1
48.2
48.4
17.0
15.0
30.2
17.1
15.1
30.6
17.1
15.5
30.8
17.3
15.8
31.1
17.5
16.1
31.3
17.7
16.3
31.6
18.0
16.5
32.1
18.2
16.7
32.5
18.5
16.9
33.0
61.5
62.2
62.8
63.4
64.1
64.9
65.7
66.6
67.5
68.4
28.2
12.3
34.3
28.1
12.8
35.1
27.2
13.2
34.9
26.8
13.6
35.1
26.6
13.8
35.4
26.5
14.0
35.6
26.4
14.2
35.8
26.4
14.4
36.0
26.3
14.6
36.2
26.2
14.8
36.4
26.2
15.0
36.7
74.8
76.0
75.3
75.4
75.8
76.1
76.4
76.7
77.1
77.5
77.9
5.0
4.3
4.6
5.0
4.4
4.7
5.0
4.5
4.7
5.0
4.6
4.8
5.1
4.7
4.9
5.1
4.8
5.0
5.2
4.9
5.1
5.3
4.9
5.2
5.4
5.0
5.3
5.5
5.1
5.4
5.5
5.2
5.5
13.9
14.1
14.2
14.4
14.7
14.9
15.1
15.4
15.7
15.9
16.2
18.6
7.8
6.1
18.7
7.8
6.1
18.7
7.8
6.2
18.8
7.9
6.3
18.9
7.9
6.3
19.0
8.0
6.4
19.1
8.0
6.5
19.2
8.1
6.6
19.3
8.1
6.6
19.4
8.1
6.7
19.5
8.2
6.8
32.5
32.5
32.7
32.9
33.2
33.4
33.7
33.9
34.1
34.3
34.5
34.3
16.5
6.7
34.5
16.3
6.9
34.4
16.2
7.0
34.1
16.2
7.0
33.8
16.4
7.0
33.6
16.5
7.0
33.6
16.6
7.0
33.6
16.7
7.0
33.6
16.7
7.0
33.7
16.7
7.0
33.7
16.6
7.0
57.4
57.7
57.6
57.3
57.1
57.1
57.2
57.2
57.3
57.3
57.4
3.3
12.7
7.8
3.3
12.8
7.9
3.3
13.0
8.0
3.3
13.1
8.1
3.4
13.3
8.3
3.5
13.5
8.4
3.5
13.6
8.5
3.6
13.8
8.6
3.6
13.9
8.7
3.7
14.1
8.8
3.8
14.3
9.0
23.7
24.0
24.3
24.6
24.9
25.3
25.6
25.9
26.3
26.6
27.0
14.1
21.2
19.1
14.6
21.8
19.7
14.5
22.6
20.4
14.6
22.9
21.0
14.7
23.1
21.4
14.7
23.4
21.7
14.8
23.7
22.1
14.9
23.9
22.4
15.0
24.2
22.8
15.1
24.5
23.2
15.1
24.8
23.5
54.4
56.0
57.4
58.4
59.1
59.9
60.6
61.3
62.0
62.7
63.5
(Kilograms)
2.2
2.5
4.1
0.3
Note: Carcass weight basis for beef and veal and pork consumption and ready-to-cook equivalent for broiler and poultry consumption.
364 / World Meat: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Per Capita Meat Consumption of Selected Countries (continued)
South Africa
Beef and Veal
Broiler
Total
South Korea
Beef and Veal
Pork
Broiler
Total
Taiwan
Beef and Veal
Pork
Broiler
Total
Thailand
Beef and Veal
Pork
Broiler
Total
Ukraine
Beef and Veal
Pork
Broiler
Total
Vietnam
Beef and Veal
Pork
Broiler
Total
United States
Beef and Veal
Pork
Broiler
Total
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
14.0
28.1
14.1
28.8
14.2
29.4
14.6
30.1
15.0
30.8
42.1
42.8
43.6
44.7
45.8
11.4
29.1
13.6
11.7
29.2
14.2
11.6
29.6
14.6
11.8
30.2
14.8
54.1
55.1
55.8
5.0
41.6
24.9
5.1
41.6
25.9
71.6
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
15.7
31.9
16.1
32.6
16.4
33.2
16.7
33.9
17.2
34.6
46.7
47.7
48.6
49.6
50.6
51.8
12.0
31.2
14.9
12.2
32.2
15.0
12.4
33.0
15.0
12.7
33.7
15.1
13.0
34.1
15.2
13.3
34.2
15.3
13.7
34.3
15.4
56.8
58.1
59.3
60.4
61.5
62.2
62.9
63.5
5.3
41.7
26.7
5.4
42.3
27.4
5.6
43.4
27.8
5.7
44.4
28.1
5.9
45.3
28.4
6.1
46.1
28.8
6.3
46.7
29.2
6.5
47.1
29.6
6.7
47.5
30.1
72.6
73.7
75.1
76.8
78.3
79.7
81.0
82.1
83.1
84.2
3.0
10.5
12.1
3.1
10.6
12.4
3.1
10.7
12.6
3.1
10.9
12.8
3.2
11.0
12.9
3.3
11.2
13.1
3.3
11.3
13.2
3.4
11.5
13.4
3.5
11.6
13.6
3.5
11.8
13.7
3.6
11.9
13.9
25.7
26.1
26.4
26.8
27.1
27.5
27.9
28.3
28.7
29.0
29.4
9.0
16.1
17.9
8.6
17.2
17.8
8.8
17.7
18.3
9.0
18.3
19.0
9.1
18.9
19.7
9.1
19.5
20.3
9.1
20.0
20.8
9.2
20.5
21.4
9.3
21.0
21.9
9.4
21.4
22.4
9.5
21.9
22.8
42.9
43.6
44.8
46.2
47.6
48.9
50.0
51.1
52.2
53.2
54.3
1.9
21.1
5.9
1.9
20.6
5.8
2.0
20.8
5.9
2.0
21.0
6.0
2.1
21.1
6.0
2.1
21.3
6.1
2.2
21.5
6.1
2.3
21.6
6.2
2.3
21.8
6.2
2.4
22.0
6.3
2.5
22.2
6.3
28.9
28.4
28.7
28.9
29.2
29.5
29.8
30.0
30.3
30.6
31.0
39.8
29.1
42.0
38.6
27.9
43.0
37.9
27.5
43.5
37.2
27.4
43.9
36.8
27.7
44.3
36.5
28.1
44.7
36.6
28.3
45.0
36.8
28.3
45.3
36.9
28.1
45.6
37.0
27.9
45.9
37.0
27.8
46.3
110.9
109.6
108.9
108.6
108.9
109.3
109.9
110.4
110.6
110.8
111.1
(Kilograms)
15.3
31.4
Note: Carcass weight basis for beef and veal and pork consumption and ready-to-cook equivalent for broiler and poultry consumption.
WORLD DAIRY
PRODUCTS
366 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
World Butter and Cheese
Strong demand and growing incomes boost world milk production. Over the next decade, world milk production
increases 23.7%. While the EU and the U.S. are still the major milk producing countries, high production growth
is seen in Asia, especially in China and India, as well as in Argentina and Brazil.
Growth in milk production facilitates higher dairy product production. Total butter production increases 32.5%
over the baseline, with India as the biggest producer, accounting for 90% of the growth. The growth of Indian
butter production is driven by rapidly growing domestic demand and a strong world price. Indian butter exports
reach a record at the midterm of the baseline and then decrease as more production is absorbed by domestic
markets.
World butter trade increases 35.5% in next decade. New Zealand, the EU, and Australia remain the world’s largest
butter exporters, supplying 82.5% of total butter trade at the end of the baseline. As New Zealand and Australian
butter exports rise, EU net exports languish. Russia, a leading importer in the world butter market, gradually
increases its butter imports. It accounts for about one-fifth of total world butter imports at the end of the baseline.
Driven by economic growth and westernized diets, steady import growth occurs in Asia, especially in China.
World total cheese production grows 18.8%, with the U.S. and the EU accounting for about 51.9%. Strong
demand drives a 47.5% increase in world cheese trade over the decade. The EU, New Zealand, and Australia
are leading exporters, supplying over three-quarters of world cheese trade supply. Because of higher returns
from cheese, more milk is diverted into cheese production in the EU. EU cheese production rises 12.1% over
the baseline, while butter and milk powder production decrease. Because strong domestic demand in the EU
absorbs the growth in cheese production, EU cheese exports decline throughout the baseline. Australian and New
Zealand cheese production increase 3.3% and 5.7% annually, respectively. Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine become
increasingly important players in international cheese markets, together accounting for 17.9% of total exports by
2019.
Russia and Japan are the leading cheese importers and account for 42.9% of total world imports on average.
Sustained by economic and population growth, cheese imports of other Asian countries (China, Indonesia,
Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam) increase by 4.5% annually. China’s cheese imports
show especially strong growth. Mexican cheese imports rise 46.4% over the baseline.
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 367
Butter Trade
Net Exporters
Argentina
Australia
Canada
Colombia
European Union
India
New Zealand
Ukraine
Uruguay
Total Net Exports *
Net Importers
Algeria
Brazil
China
Egypt
Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
Mexico
Peru
Philippines
Russia
Saudi Arabia
South Korea
Switzerland
Thailand
United States
Venezuela
Vietnam
Rest of World
Total Net Imports
Price
Oceania Export Price
FOB Price N. Europe
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
3
51
-8
-1
75
-16
404
-17
16
6
57
-4
-1
101
3
408
-11
17
6
59
-4
-1
99
10
419
-1
17
6
57
0
-1
94
20
430
3
18
(Thousand Metric Tons)
7
7
8
58
61
66
1
3
4
-1
-2
-2
92
91
90
23
22
19
436
441
445
9
16
21
19
19
20
8
71
5
-3
87
17
449
27
21
9
77
6
-3
84
11
454
34
22
10
84
7
-3
77
6
458
42
23
11
91
9
-4
72
-1
462
49
24
560
605
621
641
661
679
695
711
727
743
758
9
6
34
53
14
24
11
58
1
11
130
39
10
2
14
-11
3
7
92
12
1
39
57
15
24
11
57
1
11
141
42
8
4
15
-14
3
7
143
13
-2
44
59
15
27
12
57
1
11
148
43
7
4
15
-8
3
7
149
14
-2
49
61
15
27
12
58
1
11
154
44
7
4
16
-11
3
8
153
16
-2
55
64
16
28
13
58
2
12
153
46
7
4
17
-14
3
9
158
17
-3
60
66
16
29
13
58
2
12
155
48
7
3
17
-17
3
9
160
18
-3
64
68
16
30
14
59
2
12
156
50
8
3
18
-18
4
10
161
19
-5
68
70
17
30
14
60
2
13
157
51
8
3
18
-20
4
10
163
20
-6
71
72
17
31
15
62
2
13
158
52
8
3
19
-24
4
11
166
21
-8
75
74
17
31
15
64
2
13
159
53
8
3
20
-27
4
11
168
22
-10
79
76
18
32
16
66
2
13
161
55
8
3
20
-30
4
12
167
560
605
621
641
661
679
695
711
727
743
758
2,348
3,400
2,802
3,464
2,804
3,366
2,815
3,250
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
2,807
2,827
2,878
3,120
3,046
3,091
2,915
3,138
2,972
3,182
3,046
3,227
3,127
3,272
o all positive net exports and negative net imports.
* Total net exports are the sum of
2014
368 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Cheese Trade
Net Exporters
Argentina
Australia
Colombia
European Union
New Zealand
Switzerland
Ukraine
Uruguay
Total Net Exports *
Net Importers
Algeria
Brazil
Canada
China
Egypt
Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
Mexico
Peru
Philippines
Russia
Saudi Arabia
South Korea
Thailand
United States
Venezuela
Vietnam
Rest of World
Total Net Imports
Price
Oceania Export Price
FOB Price N. Europe
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
39
97
-1
385
280
22
68
44
35
120
-1
391
299
24
70
44
36
128
-1
383
343
24
71
45
40
133
-1
378
377
24
73
46
(Thousand Metric Tons)
42
48
52
141
148
156
-1
-2
-2
371
368
365
397
416
435
25
27
28
75
76
80
47
48
49
53
164
-3
362
453
29
83
50
55
173
-4
358
471
29
86
51
59
182
-5
353
484
29
89
52
63
191
-5
349
497
29
92
54
934
982
1,044
1,091
1,127
1,173
1,216
1,257
1,300
1,339
1,378
24
3
17
77
12
9
185
8
68
4
13
290
94
50
2
30
5
1
42
25
0
17
77
14
9
184
8
67
4
15
293
96
52
3
25
5
1
85
27
-14
17
78
16
10
187
9
72
6
15
297
99
53
3
22
6
1
124
28
-20
17
83
18
10
190
9
75
8
16
306
101
55
3
16
9
1
143
30
-29
18
89
19
10
193
10
76
11
16
306
104
56
3
13
11
1
160
31
-40
18
97
21
11
195
10
77
13
17
308
107
58
3
9
14
1
181
33
-51
18
102
23
11
198
11
83
15
17
312
110
59
3
6
17
2
195
34
-62
18
111
24
11
202
11
91
17
18
315
112
60
3
2
19
2
203
35
-73
18
120
25
12
204
12
96
18
19
319
116
61
4
-3
22
2
215
36
-82
18
129
26
12
206
12
100
20
19
322
119
62
4
-8
25
2
224
37
-92
18
138
27
12
207
12
100
21
20
327
122
62
4
-12
28
2
235
934
982
1,044
1,091
1,127
1,173
1,216
1,257
1,300
1,339
1,378
2,958
3,535
3,423
3,682
3,480
3,715
3,546
3,787
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
3,598
3,641
3,699
3,843
3,880
3,923
3,770
3,980
3,839
4,026
3,912
4,085
3,997
4,147
o all positive net exports and negative net imports.
* Total net exports are the sum of
2014
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 369
World Milk Powder
Over the next decade, world NFD and WMP production increase 17.5% and 32.3%, respectively. Milk powder
production increases in most countries except in the EU.
Stimulated by strong import demand, especially from Asia, Australian and New Zealand NFD and WMP
production increase 3.2% and 1.1% annually, respectively, in the next decade.
Driven by strong world demand and prices, the Argentine and Brazilian dairy sectors expand over the baseline.
Argentine WMP production increases 41.8% and WMP exports increase roughly 44%. Improved domestic
economic conditions and favorable government policies boost Brazilian dairy production, which enables Brazil to
become a rising exporter in the world milk powder markets.
Australia, New Zealand, the EU, and the U.S. captured over 90% of the NFD export market in 2009. Their
combined market share declines slightly over the baseline, as NFD exports from other countries, such as India,
Ukraine, and Brazil, increase. Asian countries, Algeria, and Mexico are major importers and increase their NFD
imports steadily over the projection period.
WMP trade grows 18.9% over the baseline. While EU WMP exports decrease by 34.5%, Australia, New Zealand,
and Argentina expand their exports, respectively, by 58.3%, 5.1%, and 44%. Brazil, as an emerging exporter,
significantly increases its exports over the baseline. Major importers Algeria, Venezuela, and Asian countries
steadily increase their WMP imports.
Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) keeps its NFD imports strong,
accounting for about 40% of total world NFD imports. China and Japan together account for about 12% of the
NFD import market by the end of the baseline. Southeast Asian WMP imports rise 3.3% annually throughout the
baseline. Chinese WMP exports are negatively affected by the milk scandal for the next couple of years. Over the
long run, as domestic WMP production expands and as consumers substitute more fluid milk for reconstituted
milk powder, Chinese WMP exports expand.
370 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Nonfat Dry Milk Trade
T
Net Exporters
Argentina
Australia
Canada
Colombia
European Union
India
New Zealand
Switzerland
Ukraine
United States
Uruguay
Total Net Exports *
Net Importers
Algeria
Brazil
China
Egypt
Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
Mexico
Peru
Philippines
Russia
Saudi Arabia
South Korea
Thailand
Venezuela
Vietnam
Rest of World
Total Net Imports
Price
Oceania Export Price
FOB Price N. Europe
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
15
162
7
1
160
31
317
10
14
235
12
17
163
8
1
224
36
326
10
19
278
13
18
163
14
1
217
42
337
10
22
321
14
19
161
15
1
213
48
349
10
27
338
15
(Thousand Metric Tons)
20
21
22
161
165
172
13
12
11
1
0
0
214
219
220
55
63
73
358
365
371
10
10
10
32
38
44
349
358
364
16
17
18
22
180
8
0
222
83
375
10
51
371
19
23
190
6
-1
223
95
381
10
58
377
20
24
201
4
-1
223
107
387
10
65
385
21
25
213
2
-1
223
120
393
11
72
394
23
964
1,098
1,162
1,202
1,239
1,281
1,324
1,372
1,421
1,476
1,535
91
10
65
33
173
35
51
128
8
90
35
25
8
75
7
54
76
92
-2
70
34
178
28
53
133
9
80
43
29
10
77
7
54
200
96
-3
82
35
185
30
55
136
10
89
50
32
8
78
7
56
213
100
-6
88
36
192
31
56
137
10
91
57
35
8
80
7
59
214
105
-12
93
37
198
33
58
137
11
93
62
38
7
82
7
61
217
109
-13
99
38
205
36
60
139
12
95
64
41
7
84
7
62
222
113
-20
106
39
212
39
62
141
12
97
66
45
6
86
7
64
228
117
-29
112
40
220
42
65
143
13
99
68
48
6
89
8
66
236
120
-38
120
41
227
45
67
148
14
102
70
52
6
91
8
68
243
123
-49
127
42
235
48
69
151
14
104
72
55
6
94
8
70
257
126
-60
134
42
241
50
71
154
15
106
74
59
6
97
8
72
277
964
1,098
1,162
1,202
1,239
1,281
1,324
1,372
1,421
1,476
1,535
2,278
2,476
2,682
2,819
2,775
2,866
2,898
2,975
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
2,982
3,051
3,102
3,064
3,145
3,209
3,158
3,268
3,198
3,310
3,254
3,359
3,319
3,427
* Total net exports are the sum of
o all positive net exports and negative net imports.
2014
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 371
Whole Milk Powd
der Trade
2009
2010
2011
2012
153
126
0
-1
465
784
3
34
169
126
0
5
459
787
14
36
178
133
0
9
447
792
15
38
183
141
0
13
406
794
16
41
1,565
1,596
1,625
1,623
1,650
1,677
180
52
153
41
46
101
31
11
9
26
48
3
39
94
35
694
175
16
93
43
46
104
37
13
10
29
51
4
41
95
36
804
179
-13
55
45
46
106
42
14
11
33
54
4
42
95
38
862
182
-23
-6
47
47
109
45
15
12
35
57
4
43
96
39
891
186
-34
-29
49
49
112
47
16
13
37
60
4
44
97
40
895
Total Net Imports
1,565
1,596
1,625
1,623
1,650
Price
Oceania Export Price
FOB Price N. Europe
2,418
2,825
2,842
3,056
2,885
3,074
2,960
3,129
Net Exporters
Argentina
Australia
Canada
Colombia
European Union
New Zealand
Ukraine
Uruguay
Total Net Exports *
Net Importers
Algeria
Brazil
China
Egypt
Indonesia
Malaysia
Mexico
Peru
Philippines
Russia
Saudi Arabia
South Korea
Thailand
Venezuela
Vietnam
Rest of World
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
(Thousand Metric Tons)
191
195
200
147
154
161
0
0
0
15
16
15
374
356
343
801
808
814
18
19
21
43
44
46
205
170
0
14
330
817
23
47
209
179
0
12
321
819
24
49
214
188
0
11
318
822
26
51
220
199
0
12
305
824
28
53
1,713
1,755
1,792
1,825
1,860
190
-44
-43
51
50
115
51
18
14
38
63
5
46
99
41
899
193
-60
-54
53
52
118
55
19
15
40
66
5
47
101
43
908
197
-77
-71
54
54
121
60
20
16
41
69
5
48
102
45
922
200
-96
-83
56
57
124
65
22
17
42
72
5
50
104
48
930
203
-113
-82
58
60
126
70
23
19
43
75
5
51
106
51
934
206
-130
-88
60
62
129
75
25
20
44
77
5
52
107
54
943
1,677
1,713
1,755
1,792
1,825
1,860
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
3,022
3,081
3,130
3,179
3,246
3,302
3,196
3,367
3,238
3,404
3,301
3,456
3,375
3,540
* Total net exports are the sum of
o all positive net exports and negative net imports.
2014
372 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Dairy Supply
y and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Milk Cow Numbers
9,200
9,015
8,950
8,923
(Thousand Head)
8,904
8,890
8,880
8,874
8,870
8,869
8,873
Milk Production per Cow
9,331
9,481
9,667
9,799
9,929
10,183
10,303
10,419
10,535
10,651
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Other Disappearance
85,847
27,700
58,147
85,472
27,871
57,600
86,521
27,997
58,525
87,437
28,204
59,233
(Thousand Metric Tons)
88,413
89,405
90,429
28,362
28,579
28,823
60,051
60,826
61,607
91,426
29,044
62,382
92,420
29,249
63,170
93,437
29,463
63,974
94,503
29,691
64,812
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
708
54
762
704
64
768
713
33
746
722
32
753
728
32
760
733
33
766
737
33
770
741
33
775
746
33
780
752
34
785
757
34
791
Consumption
Shipments
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
687
1
64
752
720
1
33
754
706
1
32
739
710
1
32
743
713
1
33
747
716
1
33
750
718
1
33
752
721
1
33
755
722
1
34
757
724
1
34
759
727
1
34
762
11
14
8
11
14
17
18
20
24
27
30
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
4,583
386
4,969
4,613
451
5,065
4,703
409
5,112
4,756
413
5,169
4,835
389
5,224
4,907
395
5,302
4,981
402
5,383
5,055
409
5,464
5,128
416
5,544
5,202
424
5,626
5,279
432
5,711
Consumption
Shipments
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
4,547
33
451
5,032
4,680
33
409
5,123
4,722
33
413
5,168
4,796
33
389
5,218
4,842
33
395
5,270
4,909
33
402
5,345
4,981
33
409
5,423
5,049
33
416
5,499
5,117
33
424
5,575
5,187
33
432
5,652
5,259
33
439
5,732
-30
-25
-22
-16
-13
-9
-6
-2
3
8
12
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
778
112
890
749
82
831
775
49
824
788
50
838
800
51
851
812
51
864
823
52
875
834
53
887
845
54
898
857
54
911
870
55
925
Consumption
Shipments
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
574
0
82
655
504
0
49
553
454
0
50
504
449
0
51
500
451
0
51
502
454
0
52
506
458
0
53
511
462
0
54
516
467
0
54
522
471
0
55
526
475
0
56
531
235
278
321
338
349
358
364
371
377
385
394
282
2,740
2,857
2,190
363
3,027
3,714
2,709
379
3,216
3,814
2,826
383
3,214
3,838
2,934
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
388
392
399
3,200
3,226
3,294
3,871
3,908
3,963
3,009
3,069
3,115
404
3,345
4,005
3,165
407
3,391
4,027
3,199
411
3,442
4,054
3,248
415
3,483
4,085
3,303
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
Prices
All Milk
Butter Wholesale
Cheese Wholesale
Nonfat Dry Milk Wholesale
2014
(Kilograms)
10,056
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 373
Algerian Dairy Su
upply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
951
1,094
1,233
1,319
(Thousand Head)
1,404
1,510
1,618
1,723
1,822
1,923
2,021
Milk Production per Cow
1,603
1,618
1,633
1,648
1,663
1,693
1,708
1,723
1,738
1,753
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
1,524
1,481
118
1,771
1,498
120
2,013
1,516
121
2,175
1,534
121
(Thousand Metric Tons)
2,336
2,534
2,739
1,551
1,569
1,586
122
122
123
2,943
1,603
124
3,139
1,620
125
3,342
1,636
126
3,543
1,653
127
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
9
1
10
12
1
13
13
1
14
14
1
15
16
1
17
17
1
18
18
1
19
19
1
20
20
1
21
21
1
22
22
1
23
-9
-12
-13
-14
-16
-17
-18
-19
-20
-21
-22
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
13
1
14
13
1
14
13
1
14
13
1
14
13
1
14
13
1
14
14
1
15
14
1
15
14
1
15
14
1
15
14
1
15
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
37
1
38
38
1
39
40
1
41
41
1
42
43
1
44
45
1
46
46
1
47
48
1
49
49
1
50
50
1
51
51
1
52
-24
-25
-27
-28
-30
-31
-33
-34
-35
-36
-37
0
14
14
0
19
19
0
19
19
0
19
19
0
19
19
0
19
19
0
19
19
0
19
19
0
19
19
0
19
19
0
19
19
86
19
105
92
19
111
96
19
115
100
19
119
105
19
124
109
19
128
113
19
132
117
19
136
120
19
139
123
19
142
126
19
145
-91
-92
-96
-100
-105
-109
-113
-117
-120
-123
-126
0
2
2
0
10
10
0
10
10
0
10
10
0
10
10
0
10
10
0
10
10
0
10
10
0
10
10
0
10
10
0
10
10
172
10
182
175
10
185
179
10
189
182
10
192
186
10
196
190
10
200
193
10
203
197
10
207
200
10
210
203
10
213
206
10
216
-180
-175
-179
-182
-186
-190
-193
-197
-200
-203
-206
Milk Cow Numbers
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Whole Milk Powder
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
2014
(Kilograms)
1,678
374 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Argentine Dairy Supply
S
and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Milk Cow Numbers
2,100
2,126
2,161
2,182
(Thousand Head)
2,209
2,242
2,269
2,292
2,314
2,338
2,363
Milk Production per Cow
4,810
4,875
4,940
5,005
5,070
5,200
5,265
5,330
5,395
5,460
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
10,100
1,980
8,100
10,361
2,028
8,313
10,676
2,077
8,579
10,919
2,135
8,764
(Thousand Metric Tons)
11,200
11,512
11,800
2,197
2,256
2,316
8,983
9,236
9,464
12,067
2,378
9,669
12,333
2,440
9,873
12,611
2,500
10,091
12,899
2,562
10,318
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
45
0
45
47
0
47
48
0
48
50
0
50
51
0
51
53
0
53
54
0
54
55
0
55
57
0
57
58
0
58
60
0
60
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
42
0
42
41
0
41
42
0
42
43
0
43
44
0
44
45
0
45
46
0
46
47
0
47
48
0
48
48
0
48
48
0
48
3
6
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
10
11
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
534
39
573
541
34
575
552
34
586
570
34
604
589
34
623
611
34
645
630
34
664
647
34
681
664
34
698
681
34
715
699
34
733
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
500
34
534
507
34
541
516
34
550
531
34
565
547
34
581
563
34
597
578
34
612
594
34
628
608
34
642
622
34
656
636
34
670
39
35
36
40
42
48
52
53
55
59
63
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
25
7
32
27
7
34
29
7
36
31
7
38
32
7
39
34
7
41
36
7
43
37
7
44
39
7
46
40
7
47
42
7
49
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
10
7
17
11
7
18
11
7
18
12
7
19
12
7
19
13
7
20
14
7
21
15
7
22
15
7
22
16
7
23
17
7
24
15
17
18
19
20
21
22
22
23
24
25
222
20
242
241
19
260
252
19
271
260
19
279
270
19
289
276
19
295
285
19
304
292
19
311
299
19
318
307
19
326
315
19
334
70
19
89
72
19
91
74
19
93
77
19
96
79
19
98
82
19
101
85
19
104
88
19
107
90
19
109
92
19
111
95
19
114
153
169
178
183
191
195
200
205
209
214
220
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
Whole Milk Powder
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
2014
(Kilograms)
5,135
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 375
Australian Dairy Supply
S
and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Milk Cow Numbers
1,683
1,670
1,686
1,706
(Thousand Head)
1,713
1,724
1,739
1,756
1,775
1,796
1,817
Milk Production per Cow
5,718
5,912
6,022
6,096
6,174
6,332
6,411
6,490
6,571
6,652
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
9,620
2,329
7,228
9,875
2,354
7,458
10,155
2,372
7,720
10,397
2,397
7,937
(Thousand Metric Tons)
10,574
10,783
11,013
2,420
2,444
2,467
8,090
8,276
8,483
11,260
2,490
8,707
11,522
2,512
8,947
11,798
2,533
9,202
12,089
2,553
9,473
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
132
21
152
125
33
158
126
33
159
127
31
158
128
31
158
131
30
162
137
30
166
142
29
171
149
29
178
156
28
184
163
28
191
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
68
33
101
68
33
101
69
31
100
69
31
100
70
30
100
70
30
100
71
29
100
71
29
100
72
28
100
72
28
100
73
27
100
51
57
59
57
58
61
66
71
77
84
91
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
325
27
352
334
40
373
345
37
382
357
36
394
370
37
407
383
37
419
396
37
433
409
37
446
423
36
459
436
36
472
450
36
486
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
215
40
255
217
37
253
218
36
254
224
37
261
229
37
266
235
37
271
240
37
276
245
36
282
250
36
286
255
36
291
259
35
295
97
120
128
133
141
148
156
164
173
182
191
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
219
52
271
205
60
264
210
52
262
210
51
261
209
51
260
215
51
265
223
52
274
231
54
285
241
56
297
253
58
311
265
61
326
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
49
60
109
49
52
101
49
51
99
49
51
99
49
51
99
49
52
100
49
54
102
49
56
105
49
58
107
49
61
110
49
64
113
162
163
163
161
161
165
172
180
190
201
213
144
19
163
154
10
164
161
10
171
169
10
179
176
10
186
184
10
194
192
10
202
201
10
211
210
10
220
221
10
231
231
10
241
27
10
37
28
10
38
28
10
38
28
10
38
29
10
39
30
10
40
30
10
40
31
10
41
32
10
42
32
10
42
33
10
43
126
126
133
141
147
154
161
170
179
188
199
38
223
38
223
40
233
40
233
(Australian Cents per Hectoliter)
41
42
42
236
239
242
43
245
44
248
45
252
46
256
3,097
3,901
3,005
3,190
3,195
3,902
3,058
3,240
3,384
4,200
3,348
3,482
3,500
4,527
3,792
3,838
3,582
4,627
3,854
3,903
3,691
4,740
3,943
4,000
3,810
4,869
4,043
4,112
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
Whole Milk Powder
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Milk Farm Prices
Fluid Milk Average
Retail Milk
Export Prices
Butter
Cheese
NFD
WMP
2014
(Kilograms)
6,253
(Australian Dollars per Metric Ton)
3,336
3,335
3,371
3,443
4,203
4,275
4,342
4,426
3,435
3,544
3,638
3,712
3,508
3,590
3,674
3,746
376 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Brazilian Dairy Supply
S
and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
21,694
20,926
21,555
22,073
(Thousand Head)
22,483
22,849
23,218
23,570
23,917
24,261
24,602
Milk Production per Cow
1,289
1,337
1,349
1,361
1,419
1,440
1,460
1,481
1,502
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
27,968
10,075
18,390
27,981
10,384
18,095
29,067
10,652
18,912
30,047
10,923
19,621
(Thousand Metric Tons)
31,000
31,979
32,950
11,181
11,433
11,683
20,317
21,044
21,765
33,931
11,934
22,495
34,925
12,187
23,236
35,926
12,442
23,982
36,942
12,700
24,740
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
76
0
76
82
0
82
86
0
86
87
0
87
89
0
89
90
0
90
92
0
92
94
0
94
97
0
97
99
0
99
102
0
102
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
82
0
82
83
0
83
84
0
84
85
0
85
86
0
86
88
0
88
88
0
88
90
0
90
91
0
91
91
0
91
92
0
92
-6
-1
2
2
2
3
3
5
6
8
10
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
614
0
614
647
0
647
690
0
690
729
0
729
758
0
758
790
0
790
821
0
821
852
0
852
884
0
884
915
0
915
947
0
947
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
617
0
617
647
0
647
676
0
676
709
0
709
729
0
729
750
0
750
770
0
770
791
0
791
812
0
812
833
0
833
855
0
855
-3
0
14
20
29
40
51
62
73
82
92
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
125
0
125
139
0
139
143
0
143
152
0
152
163
0
163
170
0
170
182
0
182
198
0
198
213
0
213
230
0
230
248
0
248
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
135
0
135
137
0
137
141
0
141
146
0
146
151
0
151
157
0
157
163
0
163
169
0
169
175
0
175
181
0
181
188
0
188
-10
2
3
6
12
13
20
29
38
49
60
Whole Milk Powder
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
473
0
473
530
0
530
576
0
576
604
0
604
630
0
630
654
0
654
684
0
684
716
0
716
751
0
751
784
0
784
816
0
816
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
525
0
525
546
0
546
563
0
563
582
0
582
596
0
596
610
0
610
624
0
624
638
0
638
655
0
655
671
0
671
686
0
686
-52
-16
13
23
34
44
60
77
96
113
130
Milk Cow Numbers
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
2013
1,379
2014
(Kilograms)
1,400
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 377
Canadian Dairy S
Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
978
970
966
960
Milk Production per Cow
8,384
8,446
8,510
8,623
8,736
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
8,200
3,080
4,725
8,193
3,115
4,686
8,217
3,117
4,710
8,276
3,119
4,770
82
14
96
85
15
100
87
14
100
90
14
103
90
13
103
91
13
105
89
15
104
91
14
104
91
14
104
90
13
103
89
13
102
-8
-4
-4
0
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
280
59
339
285
46
331
289
46
336
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
310
46
356
314
46
360
-17
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Milk Cow Numbers
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
Prices
Industrial Milk, Target
Fluid Milk
Butter Support
NFD Support
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
918
903
887
872
858
8,961
9,073
9,185
9,298
9,411
(Thousand Metric Tons)
8,269
8,255
8,230
3,120
3,119
3,117
4,767
4,760
4,742
8,193
3,114
4,715
8,150
3,111
4,682
8,109
3,108
4,650
8,070
3,105
4,620
92
13
106
93
13
106
93
13
106
94
13
107
95
13
108
89
13
102
88
13
101
88
13
101
87
13
100
87
13
100
86
13
99
1
3
4
5
6
7
9
294
47
340
299
47
345
303
47
350
308
47
355
312
48
360
317
48
365
322
48
371
327
49
376
318
47
364
322
47
369
326
47
373
330
47
377
334
48
381
337
48
385
341
48
389
345
49
393
348
49
397
-17
-17
-17
-18
-18
-18
-18
-18
-18
-18
80
29
109
89
32
121
91
39
130
94
40
134
93
40
133
94
40
134
93
40
133
92
40
132
92
40
131
91
39
130
90
39
129
70
32
102
74
39
114
77
40
116
79
40
119
80
40
120
81
40
121
83
40
123
84
40
124
86
39
125
87
39
126
89
39
128
7
8
14
15
13
12
11
8
6
4
2
74.64
83.94
74.60
83.90
76.22
85.39
77.88
86.90
(Canadian Dollars per Hectoliter)
79.60
81.36
83.15
88.48
90.08
91.72
84.98
93.39
86.84
95.10
88.74
96.84
90.69
98.61
7.10
6.18
7.10
6.18
7.23
6.31
7.35
6.45
(Canadian Dollars per Kilogram)
7.48
7.61
7.74
6.59
6.73
6.87
7.88
7.02
8.01
7.17
8.15
7.32
8.30
7.48
(Thousand Head)
947
933
(Kilograms)
8,848
378 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Chinese Dairy Su
upply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
18,527
19,085
19,626
20,093
(Thousand Head)
20,506
20,878
21,227
21,561
21,888
22,206
22,521
Milk Production per Cow
1,599
2,113
2,173
2,236
2,437
2,510
2,582
2,656
2,734
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
29,625
15,007
14,966
40,320
16,503
23,974
42,644
18,482
24,275
44,918
20,696
24,295
(Thousand Metric Tons)
47,116
49,396
51,729
23,258
26,097
29,190
23,892
23,297
22,501
54,117
32,529
21,514
56,503
36,216
20,179
58,977
40,232
18,602
61,578
44,350
17,049
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
104
0
104
105
0
105
107
0
107
109
0
109
112
0
112
114
0
114
117
0
117
119
0
119
121
0
121
124
0
124
126
0
126
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
138
0
138
144
0
144
151
0
151
158
0
158
166
0
166
174
0
174
180
0
180
187
0
187
193
0
193
199
0
199
205
0
205
-34
-39
-44
-49
-55
-60
-64
-68
-71
-75
-79
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
272
0
272
280
0
280
290
0
290
297
0
297
304
0
304
309
0
309
318
0
318
323
0
323
328
0
328
333
0
333
337
0
337
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
325
0
325
333
0
333
344
0
344
356
0
356
369
0
369
382
0
382
396
0
396
410
0
410
424
0
424
437
0
437
451
0
451
-77
-77
-78
-83
-89
-97
-102
-111
-120
-129
-138
54
0
54
55
0
55
57
0
57
61
0
61
64
0
64
68
0
68
72
0
72
77
0
77
81
0
81
85
0
85
89
0
89
119
0
119
125
0
125
138
0
138
148
0
148
158
0
158
168
0
168
178
0
178
189
0
189
200
0
200
211
0
211
223
0
223
-65
-70
-82
-88
-93
-99
-106
-112
-120
-127
-134
Whole Milk Powder
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
977
120
1,097
973
110
1,093
1,157
0
1,277
1,265
0
1,385
1,336
0
1,456
1,405
0
1,525
1,479
0
1,599
1,549
0
1,669
1,607
0
1,727
1,650
0
1,770
1,700
0
1,820
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,140
110
1,250
1,177
0
1,177
1,212
0
1,212
1,258
0
1,258
1,307
0
1,307
1,362
0
1,362
1,425
0
1,425
1,478
0
1,478
1,524
0
1,524
1,569
0
1,569
1,611
0
1,611
-153
-93
-55
6
29
43
54
71
83
82
88
Milk Cow Numbers
Net Trade
Net Trade
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
2013
2,298
2014
(Kilograms)
2,366
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 379
Colombian Dairy
y Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Milk Cow Numbers
7,106
7,245
7,396
7,551
(Thousand Head)
7,706
7,850
7,985
8,113
8,230
8,342
8,457
Milk Production per Cow
1,016
1,018
1,022
1,024
1,026
1,030
1,032
1,033
1,034
1,036
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
7,221
5,427
1,191
7,377
5,522
1,272
7,556
5,638
1,333
7,734
5,762
1,384
(Thousand Metric Tons)
7,910
8,071
8,227
5,892
6,021
6,155
1,427
1,456
1,472
8,371
6,294
1,489
8,501
6,434
1,492
8,626
6,568
1,504
8,765
6,700
1,531
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
22
0
22
22
0
22
23
0
23
23
0
23
23
0
23
24
0
24
24
0
24
24
0
24
24
0
24
24
0
24
24
0
24
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
22
0
22
23
0
23
23
0
23
24
0
24
25
0
25
25
0
25
26
0
26
26
0
26
27
0
27
27
0
27
28
0
28
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-4
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
58
0
58
58
0
58
59
0
59
60
0
60
61
0
61
62
0
62
62
0
62
63
0
63
63
0
63
63
0
63
64
0
64
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
58
0
58
59
0
59
60
0
60
61
0
61
62
0
62
63
0
63
64
0
64
66
0
66
67
0
67
68
0
68
69
0
69
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-4
-5
-5
10
0
10
10
0
10
10
0
10
10
0
10
11
0
11
11
0
11
11
0
11
11
0
11
11
0
11
11
0
11
11
0
11
9
0
9
9
0
9
9
0
9
10
0
10
10
0
10
10
0
10
11
0
11
11
0
11
11
0
11
12
0
12
12
0
12
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
-1
-1
-1
Whole Milk Powder
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
36
8
44
44
8
52
50
8
58
55
8
63
59
8
67
62
8
70
63
8
71
64
8
72
64
8
72
65
8
73
68
8
76
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
37
8
45
39
8
47
40
8
48
42
8
50
44
8
52
46
8
54
48
8
56
50
8
58
52
8
60
54
8
62
55
8
63
-1
5
9
13
15
16
15
14
12
11
12
Net Trade
Net Trade
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
2014
(Kilograms)
1,028
380 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Egyptian Dairy Supply
Su
and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
1,635
1,645
1,652
1,669
(Thousand Head)
1,688
1,702
1,724
1,745
1,761
1,772
1,784
982
1,015
1,065
1,122
1,179
1,295
1,361
1,425
1,490
1,556
1,606
1,694
2,110
1,670
1,786
2,146
1,760
1,884
2,222
1,873
1,974
2,303
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,990
2,102
2,233
2,043
2,111
2,178
2,394
2,471
2,561
2,375
2,233
2,672
2,510
2,293
2,770
2,641
2,352
2,862
2,776
2,411
2,959
6
0
6
6
0
6
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
6
0
6
6
0
6
6
0
6
6
0
6
59
0
59
62
0
62
64
0
64
66
0
66
69
0
69
71
0
71
73
0
73
76
0
76
78
0
78
80
0
80
82
0
82
-53
-57
-59
-61
-64
-66
-68
-70
-72
-74
-76
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
441
0
441
456
0
456
474
0
474
491
0
491
508
0
508
526
0
526
543
0
543
560
0
560
578
0
578
596
0
596
615
0
615
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
453
0
453
470
0
470
490
0
490
509
0
509
527
0
527
546
0
546
566
0
566
584
0
584
603
0
603
622
0
622
641
0
641
-12
-14
-16
-18
-19
-21
-23
-24
-25
-26
-27
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
0
33
34
0
34
35
0
35
36
0
36
37
0
37
38
0
38
39
0
39
40
0
40
41
0
41
42
0
42
42
0
42
-33
-34
-35
-36
-37
-38
-39
-40
-41
-42
-42
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
41
0
41
43
0
43
45
0
45
47
0
47
49
0
49
51
0
51
53
0
53
54
0
54
56
0
56
58
0
58
60
0
60
-41
-43
-45
-47
-49
-51
-53
-54
-56
-58
-60
Milk Cow Numbers
Milk Production per Cow
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Whole Milk Powder
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
2014
(Kilograms)
1,235
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 381
European Union Dairy Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
24,248
24,092
23,950
23,761
(Thousand Head)
23,564
23,483
23,292
23,084
22,871
22,661
22,461
5,518
5,609
5,664
5,722
5,910
5,976
6,041
6,108
6,176
133,800
33,800
103,872
135,132
33,013
106,014
135,665
32,782
106,802
135,954
32,687
107,210
(Thousand Metric Tons)
136,200 137,227 137,652
32,575
32,446
32,257
107,591 108,771 109,409
137,948
32,076
109,910
138,157
31,913
110,307
138,418
31,716
110,791
138,707
31,510
111,310
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2,090
53
2,143
2,021
130
2,151
2,011
121
2,131
2,004
107
2,110
1,996
96
2,091
1,985
87
2,071
1,981
70
2,050
1,976
51
2,027
1,974
32
2,005
1,970
15
1,985
1,967
6
1,972
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1,938
130
2,068
1,929
121
2,050
1,926
107
2,032
1,920
96
2,016
1,913
87
1,999
1,911
70
1,981
1,910
51
1,961
1,909
32
1,940
1,907
15
1,921
1,902
6
1,907
1,897
3
1,900
75
101
99
94
92
91
90
87
84
77
72
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
6,730
0
6,730
6,813
0
6,813
6,884
0
6,884
6,955
0
6,955
7,024
0
7,024
7,101
0
7,101
7,194
0
7,194
7,283
0
7,283
7,374
0
7,374
7,460
0
7,460
7,544
0
7,544
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
6,345
0
6,345
6,422
0
6,422
6,501
0
6,501
6,577
0
6,577
6,654
0
6,654
6,733
0
6,733
6,829
0
6,829
6,921
0
6,921
7,016
0
7,016
7,107
0
7,107
7,196
0
7,196
385
391
383
378
371
368
365
362
358
353
349
1,080
0
1,080
1,024
280
1,304
1,014
260
1,274
987
255
1,242
960
242
1,201
937
212
1,148
921
168
1,089
904
122
1,026
908
69
977
911
31
942
916
10
926
640
280
920
819
260
1,079
802
255
1,057
788
242
1,029
776
212
987
761
168
929
748
122
870
735
69
804
723
31
754
709
10
719
696
8
703
160
224
217
213
214
219
220
222
223
223
223
Whole Milk Powder
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
790
0
790
777
0
777
762
0
762
717
0
717
681
0
681
659
0
659
642
0
642
625
0
625
612
0
612
606
0
606
588
0
588
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
325
0
325
318
0
318
314
0
314
311
0
311
307
0
307
303
0
303
299
0
299
295
0
295
292
0
292
288
0
288
284
0
284
465
459
447
406
374
356
343
330
321
318
305
0.00
26.30
0.00
27.31
0.00
27.39
0.00
27.57
(Euros per 100 Kilograms)
0.00
0.00
0.00
27.82
28.05
28.34
0.00
28.66
0.00
28.92
0.00
29.29
0.00
29.68
245
330
164
196
246
175
251
343
180
210
246
175
249
344
185
212
246
175
249
346
189
215
246
175
250
363
207
232
246
175
252
367
210
234
246
175
256
372
215
238
246
175
259
378
220
244
246
175
Milk Cow Numbers
Milk Production per Cow
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Prices
Milk Target
Milk Producer
Butter Domestic
Cheese Domestic
NFD Domestic
WMP Domestic
Butter Intervention
NFD Intervention
2013
5,780
249
351
193
219
246
175
2014
(Kilograms)
5,844
246
355
198
223
246
175
248
359
203
227
246
175
382 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Indian Dairy Supp
pply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
38,125
38,267
38,483
38,751
1,194
1,241
1,276
1,311
45,524
62,876
108,400
45,116
63,278
47,479
66,088
113,567
48,527
65,034
49,093
68,143
117,236
50,187
67,043
50,787
70,227
121,014
51,812
69,197
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
3,855
0
3,855
4,349
0
4,349
4,605
0
4,605
4,877
0
4,877
5,122
0
5,122
5,350
0
5,350
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
3,871
0
3,871
4,346
0
4,346
4,595
0
4,595
4,857
0
4,857
5,099
0
5,099
-16
3
10
20
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
364
15
379
398
11
410
416
11
428
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
336
11
348
362
11
373
31
36
Milk Cow Numbers
Milk Production per Cow
Cow Milk Production
Buffalo Milk Production
Total Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
(Thousand Head)
39,056
39,386
39,734
40,095
40,464
40,840
41,220
1,415
1,450
1,485
1,520
1,555
(Thousand Metric Tons)
52,550
54,371
56,240
72,425
74,655
76,917
124,975 129,026 133,157
53,425
55,061
56,715
71,544
73,959
76,436
58,153
79,344
137,497
58,406
79,086
60,104
81,809
141,912
60,123
81,784
62,089
84,310
146,399
61,838
84,555
64,108
86,849
150,957
63,559
87,392
5,545
0
5,545
5,747
0
5,747
5,948
0
5,948
6,110
0
6,110
6,270
0
6,270
5,328
0
5,328
5,526
0
5,526
5,729
0
5,729
5,937
0
5,937
6,104
0
6,104
6,271
0
6,271
23
22
19
17
11
6
-1
432
11
443
449
11
460
468
11
479
490
11
501
514
11
525
538
11
549
564
11
575
590
11
601
374
11
385
384
11
396
394
11
406
405
11
416
417
11
428
430
11
441
444
11
455
457
11
468
469
11
481
42
48
55
63
73
83
95
107
120
1,346
2014
(Kilograms)
1,380
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 383
Indonesian Dairy
y Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
390
413
429
446
Milk Production per Cow
2,538
2,566
2,583
2,595
2,609
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
989
342
1,019
1,059
349
1,088
1,109
358
1,135
1,156
366
1,180
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
0
14
15
0
15
15
0
15
15
0
15
16
0
16
-14
-15
-15
-15
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
9
0
9
9
0
9
-9
Milk Cow Numbers
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Whole Milk Powder
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
478
484
490
495
500
2,636
2,648
2,661
2,674
2,687
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,197
1,231
1,258
374
382
391
1,219
1,251
1,276
1,282
399
1,296
1,303
408
1,315
1,323
416
1,333
1,343
423
1,352
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
16
0
16
16
0
16
17
0
17
17
0
17
17
0
17
18
0
18
-16
-16
-16
-17
-17
-17
-18
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
0
10
10
0
10
10
0
10
11
0
11
11
0
11
11
0
11
12
0
12
12
0
12
12
0
12
-9
-10
-10
-10
-11
-11
-11
-12
-12
-12
0
7
7
0
8
8
0
8
8
0
8
8
0
8
8
0
8
8
0
8
8
0
8
8
0
8
8
0
8
8
0
8
8
172
8
180
178
8
186
185
8
193
192
8
200
198
8
206
205
8
213
212
8
220
220
8
228
227
8
235
235
8
243
241
8
249
-173
-178
-185
-192
-198
-205
-212
-220
-227
-235
-241
56
6
62
57
8
65
61
8
69
64
8
72
65
8
73
68
8
76
70
8
78
72
8
80
73
8
81
74
8
82
75
8
83
100
8
108
103
8
111
107
8
115
111
8
119
115
8
123
118
8
126
122
8
130
126
8
134
130
8
138
134
8
142
137
8
145
-46
-46
-46
-47
-49
-50
-52
-54
-57
-60
-62
(Thousand Head)
459
470
(Kilograms)
2,623
384 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Japanese Dairy Supply
S
and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
848
844
839
833
Milk Production per Cow
9,316
9,370
9,420
9,469
9,518
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
7,900
4,300
3,525
7,905
4,267
3,563
7,899
4,244
3,581
7,885
4,228
3,583
57
25
82
57
30
87
57
30
87
57
30
87
56
30
86
56
30
86
75
30
105
81
30
111
83
30
113
84
30
114
84
30
114
-24
-24
-27
-27
45
15
60
56
15
71
62
15
77
230
15
245
240
15
255
-185
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Milk Cow Numbers
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Prices
Milk Farm Price
Butter Wholesale
NFD Wholesale
Cheese Retail
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
808
798
788
776
765
9,614
9,662
9,711
9,760
9,808
(Thousand Metric Tons)
7,857
7,819
7,771
4,215
4,203
4,190
3,569
3,544
3,510
7,714
4,172
3,472
7,649
4,146
3,433
7,578
4,117
3,393
7,504
4,086
3,350
55
30
85
55
30
85
54
30
84
53
30
83
53
30
83
85
30
115
85
30
115
85
30
115
85
30
115
85
30
115
84
30
114
-28
-29
-30
-30
-31
-31
-32
65
15
80
66
15
81
67
15
82
67
15
82
67
15
82
67
15
82
67
15
82
67
15
82
249
15
264
255
15
270
259
15
274
262
15
277
266
15
281
269
15
284
271
15
286
273
15
288
275
15
290
-184
-187
-190
-193
-195
-198
-202
-204
-206
-207
165
31
196
161
51
212
159
51
210
158
51
209
156
51
207
154
51
205
151
51
202
148
51
199
145
51
196
142
51
193
139
51
190
180
51
231
189
51
240
189
51
240
189
51
240
189
51
240
190
51
241
190
51
241
190
51
241
190
51
241
190
51
241
190
51
241
-35
-28
-30
-31
-33
-36
-39
-42
-45
-48
-50
88
1,165
606
2,248
88
1,170
618
2,466
88
1,171
625
2,670
87
1,160
629
2,844
(Yen per Kilogram)
86
84
83
1,143
1,133
1,133
631
635
639
2,991
3,125
3,245
81
1,135
641
3,351
80
1,139
643
3,444
79
1,143
646
3,529
78
1,148
648
3,608
(Thousand Head)
826
817
(Kilograms)
9,566
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 385
Malaysian Dairy Supply
S
and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
99
102
106
109
Milk Production per Cow
572
599
618
628
639
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
57
55
16
61
58
18
65
59
21
68
61
23
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
11
0
11
11
0
11
12
0
12
12
0
12
13
0
13
-11
-11
-12
-12
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
8
0
8
8
0
8
-8
Milk Cow Numbers
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Whole Milk Powder
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
(Thousand Head)
112
116
120
123
126
128
131
(Kilograms)
648
658
668
679
689
701
(Thousand Metric Tons)
72
75
79
64
66
68
24
26
28
82
70
30
85
73
32
88
75
34
92
77
36
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
13
0
13
14
0
14
14
0
14
15
0
15
15
0
15
16
0
16
-13
-13
-14
-14
-15
-15
-16
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9
0
9
9
0
9
10
0
10
10
0
10
11
0
11
11
0
11
12
0
12
12
0
12
12
0
12
-8
-9
-9
-10
-10
-11
-11
-12
-12
-12
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
51
0
51
53
0
53
55
0
55
56
0
56
58
0
58
60
0
60
62
0
62
65
0
65
67
0
67
69
0
69
71
0
71
-51
-53
-55
-56
-58
-60
-62
-65
-67
-69
-71
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
101
0
101
104
0
104
106
0
106
109
0
109
112
0
112
115
0
115
118
0
118
121
0
121
124
0
124
126
0
126
129
0
129
-101
-104
-106
-109
-112
-115
-118
-121
-124
-126
-129
386 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Mexican Dairy Su
upply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Milk Cow Numbers
2,334
2,371
2,382
2,421
(Thousand Head)
2,462
2,506
2,541
2,566
2,602
2,641
2,687
Milk Production per Cow
4,770
4,807
4,861
4,913
5,027
5,193
5,267
5,352
5,410
5,479
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
11,132
4,421
6,915
11,398
4,561
7,045
11,581
4,689
7,100
11,895
4,760
7,343
(Thousand Metric Tons)
12,379
12,811
13,194
4,845
4,932
5,025
7,742
8,087
8,377
13,517
5,141
8,585
13,924
5,264
8,868
14,290
5,384
9,114
14,724
5,501
9,431
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
165
0
165
170
0
170
175
0
175
180
0
180
186
0
186
191
0
191
195
0
195
200
0
200
204
0
204
208
0
208
212
0
212
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
223
0
223
227
0
227
232
0
232
238
0
238
243
0
243
249
0
249
254
0
254
260
0
260
266
0
266
272
0
272
278
0
278
-58
-57
-57
-58
-58
-58
-59
-60
-62
-64
-66
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
225
0
225
232
0
232
233
0
233
236
0
236
243
0
243
248
0
248
250
0
250
250
0
250
254
0
254
259
0
259
268
0
268
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
293
0
293
298
0
298
305
0
305
311
0
311
318
0
318
326
0
326
333
0
333
341
0
341
350
0
350
359
0
359
367
0
367
-68
-67
-72
-75
-76
-77
-83
-91
-96
-100
-100
25
20
45
28
20
48
31
20
51
35
20
55
39
20
59
44
20
64
45
20
65
48
20
68
49
20
69
50
20
70
52
20
72
153
20
173
161
20
181
167
20
187
172
20
192
176
20
196
183
20
203
186
20
206
191
20
211
197
20
217
202
20
222
206
20
226
-128
-133
-136
-137
-137
-139
-141
-143
-148
-151
-154
Whole Milk Powder
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
120
0
120
123
0
123
124
0
124
126
0
126
129
0
129
131
0
131
133
0
133
133
0
133
134
0
134
134
0
134
135
0
135
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
151
0
151
160
0
160
165
0
165
171
0
171
177
0
177
182
0
182
188
0
188
193
0
193
199
0
199
205
0
205
210
0
210
-31
-37
-42
-45
-47
-51
-55
-60
-65
-70
-75
Net Trade
Net Trade
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
2014
(Kilograms)
5,112
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 387
New Zealand Daiiry Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Milk Cow Numbers
4,426
4,521
4,614
4,702
(Thousand Head)
4,773
4,832
4,878
4,917
4,948
4,972
4,992
Milk Production per Cow
3,806
3,844
3,908
3,967
4,012
4,094
4,137
4,174
4,210
4,247
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
16,846
336
16,359
17,382
336
16,895
18,032
328
17,551
18,652
321
18,177
(Thousand Metric Tons)
19,147
19,595
19,971
316
312
308
18,677
19,128
19,507
20,341
304
19,881
20,652
301
20,194
20,934
298
20,479
21,202
295
20,750
419
73
492
430
66
496
440
66
506
451
66
517
457
66
523
462
66
528
466
66
533
470
66
536
475
66
541
479
66
545
483
66
549
22
66
88
22
66
88
21
66
87
21
66
87
21
66
87
21
66
87
21
66
87
21
66
87
21
66
87
21
66
87
20
66
87
404
408
419
430
436
441
445
449
454
458
462
301
43
344
321
43
363
364
43
407
398
43
441
420
43
462
439
43
482
458
43
501
478
43
520
496
43
539
510
43
553
523
43
566
21
43
64
22
43
65
21
43
64
22
43
64
22
43
65
23
43
66
24
43
66
24
43
67
25
43
68
25
43
68
26
43
69
280
299
343
377
397
416
435
453
471
484
497
316
55
371
327
53
379
338
53
390
350
53
402
359
53
411
366
53
419
372
53
424
376
53
429
383
53
435
389
53
441
395
53
447
2
53
54
1
53
54
1
53
53
1
53
53
1
53
53
1
53
53
1
53
54
1
53
54
1
53
54
1
53
54
1
53
54
317
326
337
349
358
365
371
375
381
387
393
781
72
853
789
68
857
789
68
858
794
65
859
802
64
866
809
64
873
813
64
877
818
63
881
821
63
883
823
63
886
825
63
888
1
68
69
1
68
70
1
65
66
1
64
65
1
64
65
1
64
65
1
63
63
1
63
64
1
63
64
1
63
64
1
63
64
784
787
792
794
801
808
814
817
819
822
824
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Whole Milk Powder
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
2014
(Kilograms)
4,055
388 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Peruvian Dairy S
Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
886
918
974
1,030
(Thousand Head)
1,094
1,160
1,215
1,262
1,302
1,336
1,364
Milk Production per Cow
2,120
2,187
2,239
2,292
2,344
2,460
2,515
2,570
2,623
2,676
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
1,878
813
1,060
2,008
855
1,148
2,180
904
1,271
2,360
943
1,412
(Thousand Metric Tons)
2,564
2,787
2,990
988
1,034
1,082
1,571
1,747
1,902
3,175
1,132
2,037
3,346
1,184
2,157
3,503
1,238
2,260
3,649
1,292
2,352
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2
0
2
2
0
2
2
0
2
3
0
3
3
0
3
3
0
3
3
0
3
3
0
3
4
0
4
4
0
4
4
0
4
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
3
0
3
4
0
4
4
0
4
4
0
4
4
0
4
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
6
0
6
6
0
6
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
14
0
14
15
0
15
15
0
15
14
0
14
13
0
13
11
0
11
10
0
10
9
0
9
8
0
8
8
0
8
7
0
7
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
18
0
18
20
0
20
21
0
21
22
0
22
23
0
23
24
0
24
25
0
25
26
0
26
27
0
27
28
0
28
29
0
29
-4
-4
-6
-8
-11
-13
-15
-17
-18
-20
-21
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
8
1
9
9
1
10
10
1
11
10
1
11
11
1
12
12
1
13
12
1
13
13
1
14
14
1
15
14
1
15
15
1
16
-8
-9
-10
-10
-11
-12
-12
-13
-14
-14
-15
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
11
1
12
13
1
14
14
1
15
15
1
16
16
1
17
18
1
19
19
1
20
20
1
21
22
1
23
23
1
24
25
1
26
-11
-13
-14
-15
-16
-18
-19
-20
-22
-23
-25
Milk Cow Numbers
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
Whole Milk Powder
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
2014
(Kilograms)
2,403
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 389
Philippine Dairy S
Supply and Utilization
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
16
16
16
16
17
1,252
1,282
1,312
1,342
1,372
(Thousand Metric Tons)
19
19
20
68
71
73
5
5
5
21
76
5
21
79
5
22
82
5
23
85
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
0
12
12
0
12
13
0
13
13
0
13
13
0
13
13
0
13
-12
-12
-12
-13
-13
-13
-13
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
16
0
16
16
0
16
17
0
17
17
0
17
18
0
18
18
0
18
19
0
19
20
0
20
20
0
20
-15
-15
-16
-16
-17
-17
-18
-19
-19
-20
0
2
2
0
10
10
0
3
3
0
3
3
0
3
3
0
3
3
0
3
3
0
3
3
0
3
3
0
3
3
0
3
3
82
10
92
87
3
90
89
3
92
91
3
94
93
3
96
95
3
98
97
3
100
99
3
102
102
3
105
104
3
107
106
3
109
-90
-80
-89
-91
-93
-95
-97
-99
-102
-104
-106
Whole Milk Powder
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
9
0
9
10
0
10
11
0
11
12
0
12
13
0
13
14
0
14
15
0
15
16
0
16
17
0
17
19
0
19
20
0
20
-9
-10
-11
-12
-13
-14
-15
-16
-17
-19
-20
Milk Cow Numbers
Milk Production per Cow
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
14
15
15
15
1,071
1,102
1,132
1,162
15
58
5
16
60
5
17
63
5
18
65
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
11
0
11
11
0
11
11
0
11
11
0
11
12
0
12
-11
-11
-11
-11
2
0
2
1
0
1
1
0
1
15
0
15
15
0
15
-13
(Thousand Head)
16
16
1,192
(Kilograms)
1,222
390 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Russian Dairy Su
upply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Milk Cow Numbers
9,530
9,318
9,128
8,976
(Thousand Head)
8,851
8,747
8,658
8,582
8,515
8,454
8,398
Milk Production per Cow
3,410
3,480
3,550
3,620
3,690
3,830
3,900
3,970
4,040
4,110
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
32,500
12,105
17,800
32,428
12,170
17,723
32,407
12,230
17,696
32,493
12,305
17,749
(Thousand Metric Tons)
32,660
32,887
33,161
12,307
12,309
12,310
17,949
18,204
18,502
33,469
12,315
18,827
33,802
12,323
19,171
34,153
12,326
19,535
34,516
12,335
19,905
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
280
12
292
285
12
297
287
12
299
289
12
301
291
12
304
292
12
304
293
13
305
294
13
306
295
13
307
297
13
309
298
13
311
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
410
12
422
425
12
438
434
12
447
443
12
455
445
12
457
447
13
459
449
13
461
451
13
463
453
13
466
456
13
468
459
13
472
-130
-141
-148
-154
-153
-155
-156
-157
-158
-159
-161
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
445
12
457
449
12
461
455
12
467
459
12
471
466
12
478
472
12
484
477
12
489
484
12
496
490
12
502
497
12
509
504
12
516
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
735
12
747
742
12
754
752
12
764
766
12
778
772
12
784
779
12
791
789
12
801
799
12
811
809
12
821
819
12
831
831
12
843
-290
-293
-297
-306
-306
-308
-312
-315
-319
-322
-327
70
0
70
110
0
110
109
0
109
109
0
109
109
0
109
111
0
111
114
0
114
116
0
116
119
0
119
121
0
121
124
0
124
105
0
105
153
0
153
159
0
159
166
0
166
171
0
171
175
0
175
179
0
179
184
0
184
188
0
188
193
0
193
198
0
198
-35
-43
-50
-57
-62
-64
-66
-68
-70
-72
-74
Whole Milk Powder
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
70
0
70
69
0
69
70
0
70
71
0
71
72
0
72
74
0
74
74
0
74
75
0
75
76
0
76
77
0
77
78
0
78
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
96
0
96
99
0
99
102
0
102
106
0
106
109
0
109
112
0
112
114
0
114
116
0
116
118
0
118
120
0
120
122
0
122
-26
-29
-33
-35
-37
-38
-40
-41
-42
-43
-44
Net Trade
Net Trade
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
2014
(Kilograms)
3,760
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 391
Saudi Arabian Da
airy Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
118
121
127
133
Milk Production per Cow
11,314
11,354
11,394
11,434
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
1,334
1,406
137
1,372
1,475
110
1,453
1,525
143
1,517
1,575
160
6
0
6
5
0
5
6
0
6
7
0
7
7
0
7
7
0
7
45
0
45
47
0
47
49
0
49
51
0
51
54
0
54
-39
-42
-43
-44
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
94
0
94
96
0
96
-94
Milk Cow Numbers
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Whole Milk Powder
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
144
148
154
158
162
11,554
11,594
11,634
11,674
11,714
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,569
1,615
1,664
1,625
1,674
1,713
166
166
178
1,719
1,751
195
1,790
1,797
219
1,847
1,840
231
1,896
1,880
238
8
0
8
8
0
8
9
0
9
10
0
10
10
0
10
55
0
55
58
0
58
59
0
59
61
0
61
63
0
63
65
0
65
-46
-48
-50
-51
-52
-53
-55
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
99
0
99
101
0
101
104
0
104
107
0
107
110
0
110
112
0
112
116
0
116
119
0
119
122
0
122
-96
-99
-101
-104
-107
-110
-112
-116
-119
-122
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
0
25
29
0
29
32
0
32
35
0
35
38
0
38
41
0
41
45
0
45
48
0
48
52
0
52
55
0
55
59
0
59
-25
-29
-32
-35
-38
-41
-45
-48
-52
-55
-59
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
48
0
48
51
0
51
54
0
54
57
0
57
60
0
60
63
0
63
66
0
66
69
0
69
72
0
72
75
0
75
77
0
77
-48
-51
-54
-57
-60
-63
-66
-69
-72
-75
-77
(Thousand Head)
137
140
11,474
(Kilograms)
11,514
392 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
South Korean Da
airy Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
203
203
206
206
204
203
203
203
203
Milk Production per Cow
10,222
10,540
10,837
10,971
11,482
11,656
11,831
12,006
12,182
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
2,075
1,556
519
2,138
1,564
574
2,231
1,589
642
2,263
1,602
660
(Thousand Metric Tons)
2,285
2,313
2,341
1,609
1,616
1,622
676
698
720
2,371
1,627
744
2,402
1,632
770
2,435
1,636
799
2,471
1,639
832
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
50
0
50
51
0
51
54
0
54
55
0
55
55
0
55
56
0
56
55
0
55
56
0
56
56
0
56
56
0
56
57
0
57
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
59
0
59
60
0
60
61
0
61
62
0
62
62
0
62
63
0
63
63
0
63
64
0
64
64
0
64
64
0
64
65
0
65
-10
-8
-7
-7
-7
-7
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
26
1
27
28
1
29
32
1
33
34
1
35
35
1
36
35
1
36
36
1
37
37
1
38
38
1
39
39
1
40
41
1
42
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
76
1
77
81
1
82
86
1
87
89
1
90
91
1
92
93
1
94
95
1
96
97
1
98
99
1
100
101
1
102
103
1
104
-50
-52
-53
-55
-56
-58
-59
-60
-61
-62
-62
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
17
5
22
15
5
20
17
5
22
18
5
23
18
5
23
19
5
24
20
5
25
20
5
25
20
5
25
20
5
25
20
5
25
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
25
5
30
25
5
30
25
5
30
26
5
31
26
5
31
26
5
31
26
5
31
26
5
31
26
5
31
26
5
31
26
5
31
-8
-10
-8
-8
-7
-7
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
Whole Milk Powder
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
2
0
2
2
0
2
2
0
2
2
0
2
2
0
2
2
0
2
2
0
2
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
6
0
6
6
0
6
6
0
6
6
0
6
6
0
6
6
0
6
6
0
6
6
0
6
6
0
6
6
0
6
6
0
6
-3
-4
-4
-4
-4
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
Milk Cow Numbers
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
2013
2014
(Thousand Head)
205
205
11,135
(Kilograms)
11,310
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 393
Swiss Dairy Supp
ply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
682
677
675
673
Milk Production per Cow
5,581
5,646
5,681
5,709
5,736
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
3,809
750
2,392
3,822
746
2,409
3,835
742
2,426
3,842
739
2,436
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
43
6
49
42
6
48
41
6
47
41
6
47
41
6
48
42
6
48
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
45
6
51
46
6
52
45
6
51
45
6
51
45
6
51
-2
-4
-4
-4
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
168
16
184
171
16
187
173
16
189
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
147
16
163
147
16
163
22
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Milk Cow Numbers
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
667
666
664
662
660
5,796
5,824
5,852
5,880
5,908
(Thousand Metric Tons)
3,845
3,853
3,867
735
730
726
2,444
2,457
2,475
3,877
721
2,489
3,886
717
2,502
3,893
713
2,514
3,899
708
2,524
42
6
48
42
6
48
42
6
48
42
6
48
42
6
48
45
6
51
45
6
51
45
6
51
45
6
51
45
6
51
45
6
51
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
173
16
189
175
16
191
178
16
194
180
16
196
181
16
197
182
16
198
183
16
199
184
16
200
149
16
165
150
16
166
151
16
167
151
16
167
152
16
168
152
16
168
153
16
169
154
16
170
155
16
171
24
24
24
25
27
28
29
29
29
29
27
0
27
27
0
27
27
0
27
27
0
27
27
0
27
27
0
27
27
0
27
28
0
28
28
0
28
28
0
28
28
0
28
17
0
17
17
0
17
17
0
17
17
0
17
17
0
17
17
0
17
17
0
17
17
0
17
17
0
17
17
0
17
17
0
17
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
11
(Thousand Head)
670
668
(Kilograms)
5,765
394 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Thai Dairy Supply
ly and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
298
304
310
316
3,101
3,199
3,282
3,331
3,386
924
868
11
973
927
11
1,016
959
10
1,052
1,015
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
0
14
15
0
15
15
0
15
16
0
16
17
0
17
-14
-15
-15
-16
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
4
0
4
4
0
4
-2
Milk Cow Numbers
Milk Production per Cow
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Whole Milk Powder
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
354
364
377
389
402
3,486
3,541
3,598
3,653
3,709
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,091
1,156
1,234
1,091
1,171
1,258
10
10
10
1,289
1,346
10
1,355
1,436
10
1,421
1,525
10
1,493
1,614
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
0
17
18
0
18
18
0
18
19
0
19
20
0
20
20
0
20
-17
-17
-18
-18
-19
-20
-20
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
4
0
4
4
0
4
4
0
4
4
0
4
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-4
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
75
5
80
77
5
82
78
5
83
80
5
85
82
5
87
84
5
89
86
5
91
89
5
94
91
5
96
94
5
99
97
5
102
-75
-77
-78
-80
-82
-84
-86
-89
-91
-94
-97
0
6
6
0
6
6
0
6
6
0
6
6
0
6
6
0
6
6
0
6
6
0
6
6
0
6
6
0
6
6
0
6
6
39
6
45
41
6
47
42
6
48
43
6
49
44
6
50
46
6
52
47
6
53
48
6
54
50
6
56
51
6
57
52
6
58
-39
-41
-42
-43
-44
-46
-47
-48
-50
-51
-52
(Thousand Head)
322
337
(Kilograms)
3,434
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 395
Ukrainian Dairy S
Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Milk Cow Numbers
2,856
2,741
2,670
2,636
(Thousand Head)
2,617
2,604
2,598
2,586
2,584
2,582
2,580
Milk Production per Cow
3,957
4,075
4,175
4,275
4,375
4,574
4,674
4,774
4,874
4,974
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
11,300
3,527
7,050
11,167
3,615
6,880
11,144
3,796
6,700
11,267
4,001
6,629
(Thousand Metric Tons)
11,447
11,652
11,883
4,174
4,324
4,446
6,643
6,702
6,813
12,089
4,570
6,899
12,339
4,702
7,018
12,588
4,838
7,131
12,836
4,980
7,237
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
72
0
72
83
0
83
95
0
95
101
0
101
108
0
108
115
0
115
122
0
122
130
0
130
137
0
137
145
0
145
153
0
153
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
89
0
89
94
0
94
96
0
96
98
0
98
99
0
99
99
0
99
102
0
102
103
0
103
103
0
103
103
0
103
104
0
104
-17
-11
-1
3
9
16
21
27
34
42
49
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
250
0
250
259
0
259
270
0
270
281
0
281
290
0
290
298
0
298
305
0
305
314
0
314
322
0
322
331
0
331
339
0
339
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
182
0
182
189
0
189
199
0
199
208
0
208
215
0
215
221
0
221
226
0
226
230
0
230
236
0
236
241
0
241
248
0
248
68
70
71
73
75
76
80
83
86
89
92
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
48
2
50
54
2
56
57
2
59
62
2
64
68
2
70
74
2
76
81
2
83
87
2
89
95
2
97
102
2
104
110
2
112
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
34
2
36
35
2
37
35
2
37
36
2
38
36
2
38
36
2
38
36
2
38
36
2
38
37
2
39
37
2
39
38
2
40
14
19
22
27
32
38
44
51
58
65
72
Whole Milk Powder
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
15
0
15
26
0
26
27
0
27
29
0
29
31
0
31
33
0
33
35
0
35
37
0
37
39
0
39
41
0
41
43
0
43
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
12
0
12
12
0
12
12
0
12
13
0
13
13
0
13
14
0
14
14
0
14
14
0
14
15
0
15
15
0
15
15
0
15
3
14
15
16
18
19
21
23
24
26
28
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
2014
(Kilograms)
4,474
396 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Uruguayan Dairy
y Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
968
976
986
993
(Thousand Head)
1,000
1,007
1,014
1,020
1,027
1,034
1,041
Milk Production per Cow
1,727
1,737
1,743
1,755
1,763
1,778
1,786
1,797
1,808
1,820
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
1,672
343
1,179
1,695
368
1,173
1,719
375
1,190
1,743
383
1,205
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,763
1,784
1,802
391
400
408
1,217
1,228
1,237
1,822
418
1,246
1,846
426
1,262
1,869
433
1,278
1,894
439
1,296
22
4
26
22
4
26
23
4
27
24
4
28
24
4
28
25
4
29
26
4
30
27
4
31
28
4
32
29
4
33
31
4
35
5
4
9
5
4
9
6
4
10
6
4
10
6
4
10
6
4
10
6
4
10
6
4
10
6
4
10
7
4
11
7
4
11
16
17
17
18
19
19
20
21
22
23
24
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
55
3
58
55
3
58
57
3
60
58
3
61
60
3
63
61
3
64
62
3
65
63
3
66
65
3
68
66
3
69
68
3
71
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
11
3
14
11
3
14
12
3
15
12
3
15
12
3
15
13
3
16
13
3
16
13
3
16
14
3
17
14
3
17
14
3
17
44
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
54
14
1
15
15
1
16
16
1
17
18
1
19
19
1
20
20
1
21
21
1
22
22
1
23
23
1
24
25
1
26
26
1
27
2
1
3
2
1
3
3
1
4
3
1
4
3
1
4
3
1
4
3
1
4
3
1
4
3
1
4
3
1
4
3
1
4
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
23
Whole Milk Powder
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
38
11
49
40
11
51
43
11
54
46
11
57
48
11
59
49
11
60
51
11
62
52
11
63
54
11
65
56
11
67
59
11
70
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
4
11
15
5
11
16
5
11
16
5
11
16
5
11
16
5
11
16
5
11
16
5
11
16
5
11
16
5
11
16
5
11
16
34
36
38
41
43
44
46
47
49
51
53
Milk Cow Numbers
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
2013
2014
(Kilograms)
1,772
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 397
Venezuelan Dairy
y Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
819
854
893
910
Milk Production per Cow
1,831
1,849
1,868
1,885
1,902
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
1,499
186
1,314
1,580
186
1,394
1,668
189
1,480
1,715
191
1,524
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
4
0
4
4
0
4
4
0
4
4
0
4
5
0
5
-3
-3
-3
-3
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
74
28
102
78
28
106
82
28
110
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
79
28
107
83
28
111
-5
Milk Cow Numbers
Net Trade
Net Trade
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Whole Milk Powder
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
913
911
909
907
904
1,937
1,955
1,972
1,990
2,007
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,738
1,755
1,768
194
197
199
1,544
1,558
1,569
1,781
202
1,579
1,793
205
1,588
1,805
208
1,597
1,815
210
1,605
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
2
0
2
2
0
2
5
0
5
5
0
5
5
0
5
6
0
6
6
0
6
6
0
6
-3
-3
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
84
28
112
85
28
113
85
28
113
86
28
114
86
28
114
87
28
115
87
28
115
87
28
115
88
28
116
93
28
121
96
28
124
99
28
127
102
28
130
106
28
134
109
28
137
112
28
140
115
28
143
-5
-6
-9
-11
-14
-17
-19
-22
-25
-28
4
3
7
4
3
7
4
3
7
4
3
7
4
3
7
4
3
7
4
3
7
4
3
7
5
3
8
5
3
8
5
3
8
11
3
14
11
3
14
11
3
14
11
3
14
12
3
15
12
3
15
12
3
15
12
3
15
12
3
15
13
3
16
13
3
16
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-8
-8
-8
-8
30
34
64
31
34
65
32
34
66
33
34
67
34
34
68
34
34
68
34
34
68
34
34
68
34
34
68
34
34
68
35
34
69
123
34
157
125
34
159
127
34
161
129
34
163
131
34
165
133
34
167
135
34
169
136
34
170
138
34
172
140
34
174
142
34
176
-94
-95
-95
-96
-97
-99
-101
-102
-104
-106
-107
(Thousand Head)
914
914
(Kilograms)
1,920
398 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Vietnamese Dairy
ry Supply and Utilization
2009
2010
2011
2012
177
187
199
215
1,757
1,832
1,907
1,982
311
174
0
342
177
0
380
183
0
427
192
0
Butter
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
7
0
7
7
0
7
7
0
7
8
0
8
9
0
9
-7
-7
-7
-8
Cheese
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
1
0
1
1
0
1
-1
Milk Cow Numbers
Milk Production per Cow
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
Manufacturing Use
Net Trade
Net Trade
Nonfat Dry Milk
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
Whole Milk Powder
Production
Beginning Stocks
Domestic Supply
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Domestic Use
Net Trade
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
261
276
290
303
318
2,207
2,282
2,357
2,432
2,507
(Thousand Metric Tons)
475
526
577
201
210
218
0
0
0
629
228
0
683
237
0
737
247
0
796
257
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9
0
9
10
0
10
10
0
10
11
0
11
11
0
11
12
0
12
-9
-9
-10
-10
-11
-11
-12
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
2
0
2
2
0
2
2
0
2
2
0
2
2
0
2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
54
0
54
54
0
54
56
0
56
59
0
59
61
0
61
62
0
62
64
0
64
66
0
66
68
0
68
70
0
70
72
0
72
-54
-54
-56
-59
-61
-62
-64
-66
-68
-70
-72
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
35
0
35
36
0
36
38
0
38
39
0
39
40
0
40
41
0
41
43
0
43
45
0
45
48
0
48
51
0
51
54
0
54
-35
-36
-38
-39
-40
-41
-43
-45
-48
-51
-54
(Thousand Head)
231
247
2,057
(Kilograms)
2,132
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 399
Per Capita Dairy Consumption of Selected Countries
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Argentina
Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
Whole Milk Powder
47.9
1.0
12.1
0.2
1.7
48.6
1.0
12.1
0.3
1.7
49.2
1.0
12.2
0.3
1.8
50.1
1.0
12.5
0.3
1.8
51.1
1.0
12.7
0.3
1.8
Australia
Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
Whole Milk Powder
108.2
3.2
10.0
2.3
1.3
108.1
3.1
9.9
2.3
1.3
107.7
3.1
9.9
2.2
1.3
107.7
3.1
10.0
2.2
1.3
107.5
3.1
10.2
2.2
1.3
Brazil
Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
Whole Milk Powder
50.1
0.4
3.1
0.7
2.6
49.9
0.4
3.2
0.7
2.7
51.5
0.4
3.3
0.7
2.7
53.1
0.4
3.4
0.7
2.8
Canada
Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
91.2
2.6
9.2
2.1
91.5
2.7
9.2
2.2
90.9
2.6
9.3
2.2
China
Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
11.3
0.1
0.2
0.1
12.3
0.1
0.2
0.1
Colombia
Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
Whole Milk Powder
122.8
0.5
1.3
0.2
0.8
Egypt
Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
Whole Milk Powder
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
52.8
1.0
13.2
0.3
1.9
53.8
1.1
13.4
0.3
2.0
54.7
1.1
13.6
0.3
2.0
55.6
1.1
13.8
0.4
2.1
56.4
1.1
14.0
0.4
2.1
107.4
3.1
10.3
2.1
1.3
107.3
3.1
10.4
2.1
1.3
107.2
3.1
10.6
2.1
1.3
107.0
3.1
10.7
2.1
1.3
106.9
3.0
10.7
2.1
1.4
106.7
3.0
10.8
2.0
1.4
54.3
0.4
3.5
0.7
2.8
55.6
0.4
3.5
0.7
2.9
56.7
0.4
3.6
0.8
2.9
57.9
0.4
3.7
0.8
2.9
59.1
0.4
3.7
0.8
3.0
60.4
0.4
3.8
0.8
3.0
61.8
0.4
3.8
0.8
3.1
90.2
2.6
9.3
2.3
89.6
2.5
9.4
2.3
88.9
2.5
9.4
2.3
88.1
2.5
9.4
2.3
87.4
2.5
9.5
2.4
86.7
2.4
9.5
2.4
86.0
2.4
9.5
2.4
85.3
2.4
9.6
2.4
13.8
0.1
0.3
0.1
15.3
0.1
0.3
0.1
17.2
0.1
0.3
0.1
19.2
0.1
0.3
0.1
21.4
0.1
0.3
0.1
23.7
0.1
0.3
0.1
26.3
0.1
0.3
0.1
29.1
0.1
0.3
0.2
32.0
0.1
0.3
0.2
123.5
0.5
1.3
0.2
0.9
124.6
0.5
1.3
0.2
0.9
126.0
0.5
1.3
0.2
0.9
127.4
0.5
1.3
0.2
1.0
128.8
0.5
1.4
0.2
1.0
130.3
0.5
1.4
0.2
1.0
132.0
0.6
1.4
0.2
1.1
133.6
0.6
1.4
0.2
1.1
135.1
0.6
1.4
0.2
1.1
136.5
0.6
1.4
0.2
1.1
21.1
0.7
5.6
0.4
0.5
21.8
0.8
5.7
0.4
0.5
22.5
0.8
5.9
0.4
0.5
23.1
0.8
6.0
0.4
0.6
23.5
0.8
6.1
0.4
0.6
23.9
0.8
6.2
0.4
0.6
24.2
0.8
6.3
0.4
0.6
24.4
0.8
6.4
0.4
0.6
24.6
0.8
6.5
0.4
0.6
24.8
0.8
6.6
0.4
0.6
25.0
0.9
6.7
0.4
0.6
European Union
Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
Whole Milk Powder
68.6
3.9
12.9
1.3
0.7
67.0
3.9
13.0
1.7
0.6
66.5
3.9
13.2
1.6
0.6
66.2
3.9
13.3
1.6
0.6
66.0
3.9
13.5
1.6
0.6
65.7
3.9
13.6
1.5
0.6
65.3
3.9
13.8
1.5
0.6
64.9
3.9
14.0
1.5
0.6
64.6
3.9
14.2
1.5
0.6
64.2
3.9
14.4
1.4
0.6
63.8
3.8
14.6
1.4
0.6
India
Fluid Milk
Butter
NFD Milk
38.5
3.3
0.3
40.8
3.7
0.3
41.6
3.8
0.3
42.4
4.0
0.3
43.2
4.1
0.3
44.0
4.3
0.3
44.8
4.4
0.3
45.6
4.5
0.3
46.4
4.6
0.3
47.1
4.7
0.3
47.9
4.7
0.4
(Kilograms)
51.9
1.0
13.0
0.3
1.9
400 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook
Per Capita Dairy Consumption of Selected Countries (continued)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
1.4
0.1
0.0
0.7
0.4
1.4
0.1
0.0
0.7
0.4
1.4
0.1
0.0
0.7
0.4
1.5
0.1
0.0
0.8
0.4
1.5
0.1
0.0
0.8
0.5
1.5
0.1
0.0
0.8
0.5
1.5
0.1
0.0
0.8
0.5
1.6
0.1
0.0
0.9
0.5
1.6
0.1
0.0
0.9
0.5
1.6
0.1
0.0
0.9
0.5
33.9
0.6
1.8
1.4
33.7
0.6
1.9
1.5
33.7
0.7
2.0
1.5
33.6
0.7
2.0
1.5
33.7
0.7
2.1
1.5
33.7
0.7
2.1
1.5
33.7
0.7
2.1
1.5
33.8
0.7
2.2
1.5
33.7
0.7
2.2
1.5
33.7
0.7
2.2
1.6
33.6
0.7
2.3
1.6
Malaysia
Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
Whole Milk Powder
2.1
0.4
0.3
1.9
3.9
2.2
0.4
0.3
2.0
3.9
2.2
0.4
0.3
2.0
3.9
2.2
0.4
0.3
2.0
4.0
2.3
0.5
0.4
2.1
4.0
2.3
0.5
0.4
2.1
4.0
2.4
0.5
0.4
2.2
4.1
2.4
0.5
0.4
2.2
4.1
2.4
0.5
0.4
2.2
4.1
2.5
0.5
0.4
2.3
4.2
2.5
0.5
0.4
2.3
4.2
Mexico
Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
Whole Milk Powder
39.3
2.0
2.6
1.4
1.3
40.1
2.0
2.6
1.4
1.4
40.8
2.0
2.7
1.5
1.4
41.0
2.0
2.7
1.5
1.5
41.2
2.1
2.7
1.5
1.5
41.6
2.1
2.7
1.5
1.5
41.9
2.1
2.8
1.5
1.6
42.4
2.1
2.8
1.6
1.6
43.0
2.2
2.9
1.6
1.6
43.6
2.2
2.9
1.6
1.7
44.1
2.2
2.9
1.7
1.7
New Zealand
Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
Whole Milk Powder
79.1
5.1
5.0
0.4
0.2
78.2
5.0
5.1
0.3
0.2
75.8
4.9
4.9
0.2
0.2
73.6
4.8
4.9
0.2
0.2
71.8
4.8
5.1
0.2
0.2
70.2
4.8
5.2
0.2
0.2
68.9
4.7
5.3
0.2
0.2
67.4
4.6
5.4
0.3
0.2
66.2
4.6
5.5
0.3
0.2
65.1
4.5
5.5
0.3
0.2
64.0
4.4
5.6
0.3
0.2
Peru
Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
Whole Milk Powder
27.2
0.1
0.6
0.3
0.4
28.3
0.1
0.7
0.3
0.4
29.5
0.1
0.7
0.3
0.5
30.5
0.1
0.7
0.3
0.5
31.6
0.1
0.7
0.4
0.5
32.7
0.1
0.8
0.4
0.6
33.9
0.2
0.8
0.4
0.6
35.1
0.2
0.8
0.4
0.6
36.3
0.2
0.8
0.4
0.7
37.6
0.2
0.8
0.4
0.7
38.9
0.2
0.9
0.4
0.7
Philippines
Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
Whole Milk Powder
0.6
0.1
0.2
0.8
0.1
0.6
0.1
0.1
0.9
0.1
0.6
0.1
0.2
0.9
0.1
0.6
0.1
0.2
0.9
0.1
0.6
0.1
0.2
0.9
0.1
0.6
0.1
0.2
0.9
0.1
0.7
0.1
0.2
0.9
0.1
0.7
0.1
0.2
0.9
0.1
0.7
0.1
0.2
0.9
0.2
0.7
0.1
0.2
0.9
0.2
0.7
0.1
0.2
0.9
0.2
Russia
Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
Whole Milk Powder
86.8
2.9
5.3
0.8
0.7
87.7
3.1
5.3
1.1
0.7
88.6
3.1
5.4
1.2
0.7
89.5
3.2
5.6
1.2
0.8
90.0
3.3
5.6
1.3
0.8
90.5
3.3
5.7
1.3
0.8
91.0
3.3
5.8
1.3
0.8
91.5
3.4
5.9
1.4
0.9
92.1
3.4
6.0
1.4
0.9
92.7
3.4
6.2
1.5
0.9
93.3
3.5
6.3
1.5
0.9
South Korea
Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
Whole Milk Powder
32.0
1.2
1.6
0.5
0.1
32.1
1.2
1.7
0.5
0.1
32.5
1.2
1.8
0.5
0.1
32.7
1.3
1.8
0.5
0.1
32.8
1.3
1.9
0.5
0.1
32.9
1.3
1.9
0.5
0.1
33.0
1.3
1.9
0.5
0.1
33.0
1.3
2.0
0.5
0.1
33.1
1.3
2.0
0.5
0.1
33.2
1.3
2.0
0.5
0.1
33.2
1.3
2.1
0.5
0.1
Indonesia
Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
Whole Milk Powder
Japan
Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
2014
(Kilograms)
1.5
0.1
0.0
0.8
0.5
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook / 401
Per Capita Dairy Consumption of Selected Countries (continued)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Switzerland
Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
98.4
5.9
19.2
2.2
97.6
6.0
19.3
2.2
97.0
5.9
19.4
2.2
96.4
5.9
19.5
2.2
95.6
5.9
19.6
2.2
Thailand
Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
Whole Milk Powder
13.1
0.2
0.1
1.1
0.6
13.9
0.2
0.1
1.1
0.6
14.3
0.2
0.1
1.2
0.6
15.0
0.2
0.1
1.2
0.6
16.1
0.2
0.1
1.2
0.7
Ukraine
Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
Whole Milk Powder
77.7
2.0
4.0
0.7
0.3
80.1
2.1
4.2
0.8
0.3
84.6
2.1
4.4
0.8
0.3
89.8
2.2
4.7
0.8
0.3
United States
Total Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
89.3
2.2
14.7
1.8
89.0
2.3
14.9
1.6
88.5
2.2
14.9
1.4
Uruguay
Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
Whole Milk Powder
97.7
1.4
3.2
0.6
1.3
104.3
1.5
3.2
0.7
1.3
Venezuela
Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
Whole Milk Powder
6.8
0.1
2.9
0.4
4.5
Vietnam
Fluid Milk
Butter
Cheese
NFD Milk
Whole Milk Powder
1.9
0.1
0.0
0.6
0.4
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
94.1
5.8
19.7
2.2
93.4
5.8
19.7
2.2
92.7
5.8
19.8
2.2
92.1
5.8
19.9
2.3
91.4
5.8
20.0
2.3
17.2
0.3
0.1
1.2
0.7
18.4
0.3
0.1
1.3
0.7
19.6
0.3
0.1
1.3
0.7
20.8
0.3
0.1
1.3
0.7
22.0
0.3
0.1
1.4
0.7
23.2
0.3
0.1
1.4
0.7
94.2
2.2
4.9
0.8
0.3
98.2
2.3
5.0
0.8
0.3
101.7
2.3
5.2
0.8
0.3
105.2
2.4
5.3
0.8
0.3
109.0
2.4
5.5
0.9
0.3
112.9
2.4
5.6
0.9
0.3
117.0
2.4
5.8
0.9
0.4
88.3
2.2
15.0
1.4
88.0
2.2
15.0
1.4
87.8
2.2
15.1
1.4
87.7
2.2
15.2
1.4
87.5
2.2
15.2
1.4
87.3
2.2
15.3
1.4
87.1
2.1
15.3
1.4
87.0
2.1
15.4
1.4
106.0
1.6
3.3
0.7
1.3
107.7
1.6
3.4
0.8
1.3
109.5
1.6
3.5
0.8
1.4
111.5
1.7
3.5
0.8
1.4
113.3
1.7
3.6
0.9
1.4
115.8
1.7
3.7
0.9
1.4
117.5
1.8
3.7
0.9
1.5
118.9
1.8
3.8
0.9
1.5
120.2
1.9
3.9
1.0
1.5
6.7
0.1
3.0
0.4
4.5
6.7
0.2
3.2
0.4
4.5
6.7
0.2
3.3
0.4
4.5
6.7
0.2
3.3
0.4
4.5
6.7
0.2
3.4
0.4
4.5
6.7
0.2
3.5
0.4
4.5
6.7
0.2
3.5
0.4
4.5
6.7
0.2
3.6
0.4
4.5
6.7
0.2
3.6
0.4
4.5
6.7
0.2
3.7
0.4
4.5
2.0
0.1
0.0
0.6
0.4
2.0
0.1
0.0
0.6
0.4
2.1
0.1
0.0
0.6
0.4
2.2
0.1
0.0
0.6
0.4
2.2
0.1
0.0
0.7
0.4
2.3
0.1
0.0
0.7
0.4
2.4
0.1
0.0
0.7
0.5
2.4
0.1
0.0
0.7
0.5
2.5
0.1
0.0
0.7
0.5
2.6
0.1
0.0
0.7
0.5
(Kilograms)
94.8
5.9
19.6
2.2