FAPRI 2006 WORLD OUTLOOK Presentation FAPRI

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FAPRI 2006
WORLD OUTLOOK
Presentation
FAPRI
Food and Agricultural
Policy Research Institute
Global Macroeconomic Overview
„ Sustained and widespread real economic growth for the decade
averaging 3.1%.
„ Industrialized countries including, the US, EU-15, and Japan
post average growth rates of 3.3%, 1.9%, and 1.8%.
„ China, India and other Asian economies continue their high
growth rates in the coming decade at 7.6% and 6.1%.
„ South America shows strong economies with Brazil and
Argentina growing at 3.6% and 4.4%.
FAPRI
Real GDP Growth Rates
percent
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1997
1999
2001
World
2003
2005
Developing
2007
2009
Developed
2011
2013
2015
United States
FAPRI
Global Macroeconomic Overview
„ Strengthening of the Euro and many other OECD currencies against the US
dollar (around 1.2 to 3.8 % per year in the next 5 years), inducing increased
competitiveness of US exports.
„ South American currencies appreciate against the dollar in 2005. From 2006
on, all currencies depreciate at 2.3% to 3.7% for Brazil and Argentina.
„ Strengthening of currencies in many CEECs, Baltic, and CIS countries
continue relative to the dollar.
„ Strengthening of currencies in Malaysia, Taiwan, and Thailand. The Chinese
Yuan appreciates by 1.9% annually in the next decade.
FAPRI
Average Growth in Exchange Rate
percent
4
2
0
-2
-4
AU
NZ
EU-15
HU
PO
CN
TH
CA
AR
BR
FAPRI
Policy and Other Assumptions
„ EU CAP Reform and Enlargement.
• EU Sugar Reforms.
„ Full implementation of the URAA commitments for developed
and developing countries.
„ Recovery from BSE and AI shocks. Limited impact of FMD in
Brazil.
„ Rising interest in renewable fuels.
• Mandatory 2% blend of biodiesel in 2008 in Brazil.
• EU’s Renewable Fuels Directive of 2003.
FAPRI
Meat Outlook Overview
„ SPS shock, BSE in North America, AI in Asia and Russia, and FMD in
South America shape the short-run outlook outcomes.
„ Demand growth drive long-run outlook.
„ After reaching historic highs in the last three years, meat prices adjust
downwards in the short-run and strengthens again in the outer period.
„ Rising income drives per capita meat consumption to increase by 6.8 kg per
person per year in the next decade.
„ Strong meat demand fuels trade and production to increase by 25.6% and
20.4%, respectively.
„ South American countries gain increasing market share in world meat trade.
„ After losing 7 percentage points of market share in 2004, the U.S. regains 4
percentage points by 2010, and maintains its share the rest of the decade.
FAPRI
Change in Average Per Capita Consumption
percent
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
Meat
Dairy
Oil
Sugar
Grains
FAPRI
Japanese Beef Supply and Utilization
thousand mt
thousand mt
1,400
2,000
1,200
1,500
1,000
800
1,000
600
400
500
200
0
0
1995
1997
1999
2001
Production
2003
2005
2007
Consumption
2009
2011
2013
2015
Net Imports
FAPRI
Thai Broiler Supply and Utilization
thousand mt
thousand mt
800
2,000
700
600
1,500
500
400
1,000
300
500
200
100
0
0
1995
1997
1999
2001
Production
2003
2005
2007
Consumption
2009
2011
2013
2015
Net Exports
FAPRI
Per Capita Average Meat Consumption
kg per person
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1999
2001
2003
2005
Beef
2007
Pork
2009
2011
2013
2015
Poultry
FAPRI
China Livestock Net Trade
thousand mt
500
250
0
-250
-500
Beef
Pork
2005
Broiler
2015
FAPRI
World Meat Production and Trade
thousand mt
thousand mt
260,000
30,000
220,000
25,000
180,000
20,000
140,000
15,000
100,000
10,000
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Production
2009
2011
2013
2015
Trade
FAPRI
Dairy Outlook Overview
„ Steady Asian import, declining EU exports and currency
appreciation in major exporter raise prices of milk products.
„ EU milk production is restricted by marketing milk quota
averaging at 142 million mt.
„ China expands milk production meet growing demand with
3.8% growth in dairy cows and 3% growth in productivity.
FAPRI
Asian Dairy Consumption
thousand mt
percent
200,000
92
175,000
90
150,000
88
125,000
86
100,000
84
75,000
82
50,000
80
25,000
78
0
76
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
Dairy Consumption
2005
2008
2011
2014
Share of China and India
FAPRI
EU Dairy Product Net Trade
thousand mt
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
Butter
2005
Cheese
2007
NFD
2009
2011
2013
2015
WMP
FAPRI
FOB Northern European Dairy Product Prices
dollars per mt
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1995
1997
1999
2001
Butter
2003
2005
Cheese
2007
NFD
2009
2011
2013
2015
WMP
FAPRI
Livestock and Dairy Market Share Change
percentage point
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
AU
BR
Beef
AR
EU
BR
Pork
U.S.
TH
BR
Broiler
U.S.
U.S.
AU
EU
NFD
FAPRI
Meat Production and Feed Use
thousand mt
thousand mt
300,000
1,200,000
250,000
1,000,000
200,000
800,000
150,000
600,000
100,000
400,000
50,000
200,000
0
0
1999
2001
2003
Meat Production
2005
2007
2009
Coarse Grain Feed Use
2011
2013
2015
Oilseed Meal Feed Use
FAPRI
World Feed Grain Outlook Overview
„ Growth in livestock sector of Asian and Latin American
countries drives the increase in demand for feed grains.
„ Stronger prices increase area. Combined with yield growth
production increases. Increase in area grows supply in the shortrun, while yield improvement is the major source of growth in
the long-run.
„ U.S. increases its market share at the expense of Argentina and
EU New Member States.
FAPRI
Coarse Grain Major Importers
thousand mt
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
-20,000
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
China
Japan
2007/08
Mexico
2011/12
2015/16
Taiwan
Coarse Grain = Corn, Barley, and Sorghum
FAPRI
World Corn Area and Yield
million ha
mt per ha
155
5.5
150
5.0
145
4.5
140
4.0
135
3.5
130
125
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
Area
2007/08
2011/12
3.0
2015/16
Yield
FAPRI
Corn Net Imports by Major Regions
thousand mt
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
1995/96
1999/00
Asia
2003/04
Latin America
2007/08
Middle East
2011/12
2015/16
Africa
FAPRI
Corn Production by Major Competitors
thousand mt
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
Argentina
2007/08
EU NMS
2011/12
2015/16
South Africa
FAPRI
World Coarse Grain Net Trade and U.S. Market Share
thousand mt
140,000
percent
80
70
120,000
60
100,000
50
80,000
40
60,000
30
40,000
20
20,000
0
1995/96
10
1999/00
Corn
2003/04
Barley
2007/08
Sorghum
2011/12
0
2015/16
U.S. Market Share
FAPRI
Oilseed Outlook Overview
„ Oilseed sector grows with strong demand for both oil and meal
products driven by population and income growth, and
expansion of the livestock sector.
„ Both growth in area and improvement in yield contribute to
increase in production.
„ About 76% of increase in area is due to soybean area expansion
in South America.
„ China’s support of its domestic crushing industry drive faster
growth in soybean trade compared to oil and meal products.
„ Room for area expansion in South America dampens price
growth in the next decade.
„ Increasing interest in renewable fuels.
FAPRI
World Vegetable Oil Consumption
thousand mt
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1995/96
1999/00
Soy Oil
2003/04
Sunflower Oil
2007/08
Rapeseed Oil
2011/12
Peanut Oil
2015/16
Palm Oil
FAPRI
World Soybean Area and Yield
mt per ha
million ha
120
2.7
100
2.5
80
2.3
60
2.1
40
1.9
20
1.7
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
Area
2007/08
2011/12
1.5
2015/16
Yield
FAPRI
World Soybean Production
thousand mt
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
Argentina
Brazil
2007/08
China
U.S.
2011/12
2015/16
ROW
FAPRI
World Soybean and Products Trade
thousand mt
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
Soybeans
2007/08
Soybean Meal
2011/12
2015/16
Soybean Oil
FAPRI
Brazilian and Chinese Soybean Trade
thousand mt
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
China Imports
2007/08
2011/12
2015/16
Brazil Exports
FAPRI
World Oilseed Prices
dollars per mt
350
300
250
200
150
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
Soybeans
Rapeseed
2007/08
2011/12
2015/16
Sunflower Seed
FAPRI
Crops Market Share Change
percentage point
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
U.S.
Argentina
Corn
Brazil
U.S.
Argentina
Brazil
Soybeans
FAPRI
World Food Grain Outlook Overview
„ Food grain per capita consumption declines with growth in
income as consumers “trade-up” away from staple crops to
protein rich products.
„ With declining per capita consumption, demand growth comes
mainly from population growth.
„ Growth in consumption in regions such as Asia, Africa, and the
Middle East with limited potential to meet expanding demand
fuels growth in trade and strengthen food grain prices.
„ Long-run production growth driven by yield improvement.
„ Australia, the EU, and Argentina regain market share, while
Canada and the U.S. lose market share.
FAPRI
World Per Capita Food Grain Consumption
kg per person
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1995/96
1998/99
2001/02
2004/05
Wheat
2007/08
2010/11
2013/14
Rice
FAPRI
Wheat Net Imports by Major Regions
thousand mt
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1995/96
1999/00
Asia
2003/04
Latin America
2007/08
2011/12
2015/16
Middle East and Africa
FAPRI
World Grain Prices
dollars per mt
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1995/96
1999/00
Corn, U.S. FOB Gulf
2003/04
Wheat, U.S. FOB Gulf
2007/08
2011/12
2015/16
Rice, FOB Bangkok 100% B Grade
FAPRI
World Wheat Feed and Food Use
thousand mt
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
Feed Use
2007/08
2011/12
2015/16
Food Use
FAPRI
World Wheat Area and Yield
mt per ha
million ha
3.2
235
230
3.0
225
2.8
220
2.6
215
210
2.4
205
2.2
200
195
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
Area
2007/08
2011/12
2.0
2015/16
Yield
FAPRI
World Rice Area and Milled Yield
mt per ha
million ha
156
3.0
152
2.8
148
2.6
144
2.4
140
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
Area
2007/08
2011/12
2.2
2015/16
Yield
FAPRI
Other Crop Outlook Overview
„ Sugar
• Sugar reform in the EU tightens world excess supply fueling prices to
rise.
• Area and yield growth drive the increase in production.
„ Ethanol
• Rising interest in renewable fuels boost world ethanol trade and sustains
price strength in the outer period.
• Brazil expands ethanol production to meet growth in domestic and
export demand.
„ Cotton
• Chinese cotton consumption and imports sustain modest price strength
under consecutive large world crops.
FAPRI
World Ethanol Price and Net Trade
dollars per gallon
million gallons
1,400
1.8
1,200
1.6
1,000
1.4
800
1.2
600
1.0
400
0.8
200
0.6
0
0.4
2000
2002
2004
2006
Net Exports
2008
2010
2012
2014
World Ethanol Price
FAPRI
FAPRI
Food and Agricultural
Policy Research Institute
Thank You!
FAPRI
World Sugar Price and Net Trade
dollars per mt
thousand mt
45,000
350
300
36,000
250
27,000
200
150
18,000
100
9,000
50
0
1995/96
0
1998/99
2001/02
2004/05
Net Exports
2007/08
2010/11
2013/14
FOB Caribbean Price
FAPRI
World Sugar Area and Yield
million mt
30
mt per ha
75
25
70
20
65
15
60
10
55
5
0
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
Beet Area
2007/08
Cane Area
2011/12
50
2015/16
Cane Yield
FAPRI
World Cotton Trade
thousand mt
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
Brazil Net Export
2007/08
2011/12
2015/16
China Net Import
FAPRI
World Crop Trade and U.S. Value Share
percent
billion dollars
140
30
120
25
100
20
80
15
60
10
40
5
20
0
1999/00
2001/02
2003/04
U.S.
2005/06
2007/08
Other Exporters
2009/10
2011/12
2013/14
0
2015/16
U.S. Value Share
Crops include wheat, rice, corn, sorghum, barley, soybean, rapeseed, peanuts, and sunflower.
FAPRI
World Meat Trade and U.S. Market Share
million mt
percent
30
25
20
25
15
20
10
15
5
10
1999
2002
2005
U.S.
2008
Other Exporters
2011
2014
U.S. Market Share
FAPRI
Major Sugar Exporters
million mt
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
-5
-10
1995/96
1999/00
Australia
2003/04
Brazil
EU-25
2007/08
Guatemala
2011/12
2015/16
Thailand
FAPRI
FAPRI
Sugar Stock-to-Use Ratio and Price
dollars per mt
percent
35
350
30
300
25
250
20
200
15
150
10
100
5
50
0
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
2007/08
2011/12
0
2015/16
FOB Caribbean Price
FAPRI
World Rice Production, Use, and Per Capita
Consumption
kg per person
million mt
500
68
450
67
400
66
350
65
300
64
250
63
200
62
150
100
61
50
60
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
Production
Use
2007/08
2011/12
59
2015/16
Per Capita Consumption
FAPRI
EU-15 CAP Reform and Enlargement
Policy
2004
2005
Decoupling
2006
2007
2008
(percent)
Livestock and Dairy
0
23
47
70
70
Crops
0
33
67
100
100
Modulation
0
3
4
5
5
EU15
5
10
10
10
10
EU NMS
0
0
0
10
10
20
27
22
17
7
285
285
Set-aside
Top-up Payments
(euro per ha)
Durum Aid
313
291
Dairy Quota
EU15
EU NMS
(mmt)
119
119
119
120
120
18
18
18
19
19
Target/Intervention Price
Milk
285
(euro per 100 kg)
31
0
0
0
0
Butter
317
294
271
253
246
NFD
200
191
180
177
175
FAPRI
World Wheat Stocks-to-Use Ratio vs. Price
dollars per mt
percent
250
40
35
200
30
25
150
20
100
15
10
50
5
0
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
U.S. FOB Gulf Price
2007/08
2011/12
0
2015/16
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
FAPRI
World Wheat Area, Production, and Consumption
thousand mt
thousand ha
800,000
235,000
700,000
230,000
600,000
225,000
500,000
220,000
400,000
215,000
300,000
210,000
200,000
205,000
100,000
200,000
0
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
Production
2007/08
Consumption
2011/12
195,000
2015/16
Area
FAPRI
World Wheat Trade and U.S. Market Share
thousand mt
percent
45
120,000
40
100,000
35
30
80,000
25
60,000
20
15
40,000
10
20,000
5
0
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
Net Trade
2007/08
2011/12
0
2015/16
U.S. Market Share
FAPRI
World Rice Stocks-to-Use Ratio vs. Price
dollars per mt
percent
400
45
350
40
35
300
30
250
25
200
20
150
15
100
10
50
0
1995/96
5
1999/00
2003/04
2007/08
FOB Bangkok 100% B Grade
2011/12
0
2015/16
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
FAPRI
World Rice Trade
thousand mt
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
2007/08
2011/12
2015/16
FAPRI
World Corn Stocks-to-Use Ratio vs. Price
dollars per mt
percent
180
40
160
35
140
30
120
25
100
20
80
15
60
10
40
5
20
0
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
U.S. FOB Gulf Price
2007/08
2011/12
0
2015/16
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
FAPRI
World Corn Area, Production, and Consumption
thousand ha
155,000
thousand mt
900,000
800,000
150,000
700,000
145,000
600,000
500,000
140,000
400,000
135,000
300,000
200,000
130,000
100,000
0
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
Production
2007/08
Consumption
2011/12
125,000
2015/16
Area
FAPRI
World Corn Feed, Food Use, and Per Capita
Consumption
thousand mt
900,000
kg/ha
40.0
800,000
35.0
700,000
30.0
600,000
25.0
500,000
20.0
400,000
15.0
300,000
10.0
200,000
5.0
100,000
0
1995/96
1999/00
Feed Use
2003/04
2007/08
Food and Other Use
2011/12
0.0
2015/16
Per Capita Consumption
FAPRI
World Corn Trade and U.S. Market Share
thousand mt
100,000
percent
90
90,000
80
80,000
70
70,000
60
60,000
50
50,000
40
40,000
30
30,000
20,000
20
10,000
10
0
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
Net Trade
2007/08
2011/12
0
2015/16
U.S. Market Share
FAPRI
World Oilseed Area
thousand ha
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1995/96
1999/00
Soybeans
2003/04
Rapeseed
2007/08
Sunflower
Peanuts
2011/12
2015/16
Palm Oil
FAPRI
World Sugar Stocks-to-Use Ratio vs. Price
percent
dollars per mt
350
35
300
30
250
25
200
20
150
15
100
10
50
5
0
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
FOB Caribbean Price
2007/08
2011/12
0
2015/16
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
FAPRI
Major Sugar Importers
million mt
12
10
8
6
4
2
1995/96
1999/00
Indonesia
Japan
2003/04
2007/08
Russia and Ukraine
2011/12
South Korea
2015/16
United States
FAPRI
World Beef Production and Trade
thousand mt
thousand mt
70,000
10,000
9,000
60,000
8,000
50,000
7,000
6,000
40,000
5,000
30,000
4,000
3,000
20,000
2,000
10,000
1,000
0
0
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Production
2009
2011
2013
2015
Trade
FAPRI
Major Beef Importing Countries
thousand mt
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500
1999
2001
China
2003
Japan
2005
Russia
2007
Mexico
2009
South Korea
2011
Egypt
2013
2015
Philippines
FAPRI
Beef Export Market Share (percent)
2001-2005
Australia
Brazil
New Zealand
India
Argentina
Canada
8.9
22.5
7.1
7.6
2006-2010
8.3
20.9
9.0
9.1
8.9
Australia
Brazil
New Zealand
India
Argentina
Canada
27.9
8.6
20.1
2011-2015
8.6
21.0
8.9
8.6
Australia
Brazil
New Zealand
India
Argentina
Canada
8.2
26.9
FAPRI
World Pork Production and Trade
thousand mt
thousand mt
7,000
120,000
100,000
6,000
80,000
5,000
60,000
4,000
40,000
20,000
3,000
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Production
2009
2011
2013
2015
Trade
FAPRI
Major Pork Importing Countries
thousand mt
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
1999
2001
China
2003
Japan
2005
Russia
2007
2009
Hong Kong
2011
Mexico
2013
2015
Philippines
FAPRI
Pork Export Market Share
2001-2005
9.3
EU
Canada
U.S.
Brazil
24.6
2006-2010
12.7
23.4
EU
Canada
U.S.
Brazil
14.3
17.2
15.0
14.8
2011-2015
13.5
21.3
EU
Canada
U.S.
Brazil
16.9
16.9
FAPRI
World Broiler Production and Trade
thousand mt
thousand mt
80,000
10,000
70,000
9,000
8,000
60,000
7,000
50,000
6,000
40,000
5,000
30,000
4,000
3,000
20,000
2,000
10,000
1,000
0
0
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Production
2009
2011
2013
2015
Trade
FAPRI
Major Broiler Importing Countries
thousand mt
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1999
2001
China
2003
2005
2007
2009
Japan
Russia
Hong Kong
2011
Saudi Arabia
2013
2015
Mexico
FAPRI
Broiler Export Market Share
2001-2005
5.9
15.3
37.5
U.S.
Brazil
EU
Thailand
2006-2010
7.6
11.9
32.1
35.5
U.S.
Brazil
EU
Thailand
41.5
2011-2015
7.6
35.9
10.6
U.S.
Brazil
EU
Thailand
39.5
FAPRI
FOB Northern European Dairy Product Prices
dollars per mt
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
1995
1997
1999
2001
Butter
2003
2005
Cheese
2007
NFD
2009
2011
2013
2015
WMP
FAPRI
Annual Growth in Milk Production and Total
World Output
thousand mt
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
1995
1997
1999
N. America
2001
S. America
2003
EU
2005
2007
2009
Russia & Ukraine
2011
Asia
2013
2015
Oceania
FAPRI
Butter Net Exports for Selected Countries
thousand mt
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1995
1997
1999
2001
Australia
2003
2005
New Zealand
2007
2009
2011
EU-15
Other ROW
2013
2015
FAPRI
Butter Net Imports for Selected Countries
thousand mt
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1995
1997
1999
2001
Asia
2003
Egypt
2005
Mexico
2007
Russia
2009
2011
2013
2015
Other ROW
FAPRI
EU-15 Dairy Production
thousand mt
million mt
9,000
123.0
8,000
122.5
7,000
122.0
6,000
5,000
121.5
4,000
121.0
3,000
2,000
120.5
1,000
120.0
0
1995
1997
1999
2001
Butter
2003
Cheese
2005
NFD
2007
2009
WMP
2011
2013
2015
Milk
FAPRI
EU NMS Dairy Production
million mt
thousand mt
800
23.5
700
23.0
600
22.5
500
22.0
400
21.5
300
21.0
200
20.5
100
20.0
0
19.5
1995
1997
1999
2001
Butter
2003
Cheese
2005
NFD
2007
2009
WMP
2011
2013
2015
Milk
FAPRI
Cheese Net Exports for Selected Countries
thousand mt
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1995
1997
1999
2001
Argentina
2003
Australia
2005
2007
2009
EU-15
New Zealand
2011
2013
2015
Ukraine
FAPRI
Cheese Net Imports for Selected Countries
thousand mt
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1995
1997
1999
Japan
2001
Mexico
2003
2005
Russia
2007
2009
United States
2011
2013
2015
Other Asia
FAPRI
NFD Net Exports for Selected Countries
thousand mt
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1995
1997
1999
Australia
2001
EU-15
2003
2005
New Zealand
2007
U.S.
2009
India
2011
2013
2015
Other Exporters
FAPRI
WMP Net Exports for Selected Countries
thousand mt
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1995
1997
1999
Argentina
2001
2003
Australia
2005
EU-15
2007
2009
New Zealand
2011
2013
2015
Other Exporters
FAPRI
FAPRI
NAFTA Real GDP Growth Rates
percent
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
United States
2005
2007
Canada
2009
2011
2013
2015
Mexico
FAPRI
U.S. Livestock and Poultry Prices
dollar per cwt
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Cattle
2005
Hogs
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Poultry
FAPRI
World Meat Trade and U.S. Market Share
million mt
percent
35
25
30
20
25
15
20
15
10
10
5
5
0
1999
2002
U.S.
2005
Other Exporters
2008
2011
2014
U.S. Market Share (percent)
FAPRI
EU-15 Beef Supply and Utilization
thousand mt
thousand mt
10,000
800
600
8,000
400
6,000
200
0
4,000
-200
2,000
-400
-600
0
1999
2001
Production
2003
2005
Consumption
2007
2009
2011
Net Exports (tmt)
2013
2015
Ending Stock (tmt)
FAPRI
Russian Poultry Supply and Utilization
thousand mt
thousand mt
1,400
2,500
1,200
2,000
1,000
1,500
800
600
1,000
400
500
200
0
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
Production
2005
2007
Consumption
2009
2011
2013
2015
Net Imports
FAPRI
EU NMS Dairy Production
thousand mt
million mt
800
24
700
23
22
600
21
500
20
400
19
300
18
200
17
100
16
0
15
1995
1997
1999
2001
Butter
2003
Cheese
2005
NFD
2007
2009
WMP
2011
2013
2015
Milk
FAPRI
Brazilian Soybean Production and Utilization
thousand mt
thousand mt
100,000
50,000
90,000
45,000
80,000
40,000
70,000
35,000
60,000
30,000
50,000
25,000
40,000
20,000
30,000
15,000
20,000
10,000
10,000
5,000
0
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
Production
2007/08
Consumption
2011/12
0
2015/16
Net Exports
FAPRI
Chinese Soybean Production and Utilization
thousand mt
70,000
thousand mt
50,000
45,000
60,000
40,000
50,000
35,000
30,000
40,000
25,000
30,000
20,000
15,000
20,000
10,000
10,000
0
1995/96
5,000
1999/00
Production
2003/04
2007/08
Consumption
2011/12
0
2015/16
Net Imports
FAPRI
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