Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry （RIETI）
BBL Seminar
Reference
September 12, 2014
“Developing an Alliance Agenda
for an Era of Geostrategic Change”
Sheila A. SMITH
*As per the author's request, this handout is not for quotation.
http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/index.html
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RemarksfortheRIETISeminar
AnAllianceforanEraofGeostrategicChange
SheilaA.Smith,CouncilonForeignRelations
September10,2014
Myconclusionsfirst:
A. Nodoubtaboutit.Weareinaneraofsignificantgeostrategicchange,and
theeventsofthepastyearshouldalertustothefactthatourinstitutionsof
thepasthalf‐centurymaynotbefullyadequateincopingwiththevolatility
weseetoday.
B. TheU.S.‐JapanAllianceisoneofthemostimportantinstitutional
arrangementsinAsiainthepasthalf‐century.Butitisnotthesamealliance
todayasitwasin1952,orasitwaswhenthetreatywasrevisedin1960.
C. Inhindsight,itweatheredpastmomentsofsignificantgeostrategicchange
well,althoughtherewereseriousjoltsalongtheway.Momentslikethe
openingtoChina(oneofmany“Nixonshocks”)andtheendoftheColdWar
(NorthKorea’snuclearproliferationandseriousTaiwanStraitsshowdown)
shookthestaidday‐to‐daypracticesofalliancemanagement.
D. Today,weareatanothermomenttoconsiderifourallianceissuitedtothe
changesahead.Areweready?Howmustweadapt?CantheU.S.andJapan
adjustnotonlyintheirownrelationship,butalsointhewaywework
togetherintheAsia‐Pacific?Wecannotseethisallianceassimplyamilitary
arrangementbutmustmarshalallofourresources.
IssuesforDiscussion:
I.
Whatisnew?Andwhatpressuresdoesitputontheallianceto
adapt?
A. TheriseofChinaandthegrowingmaritimecompetition
B. TherisinganxietyaboutgeostrategicchangeinChina’sneighbors
C. Themilitarydimension:newarmsraces,newdomains
D. U.S.policypreferences?The“rebalancetoAsia”andcrisesinUkraine,
Syria,Iraq
E. Japanonthefrontlineratherthaninasupportingrole
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II.
Crisismanagementandriskreduction:TheSouthandEastChina
Seas
A. Maritimeboundaries
B. Sovereigntyclaims
C. Themaritimeandairdomains
D. EngagingtheChinesemilitary:US‐PRCmil‐to‐miltalks
E. HistoricalprecedentinAsiaforslowingrisingpowers?
F. Mechanismstopreventescalation
G. Riskaversionandrisktolerance?
III.
Newchallengesforcollectiveaction
A. Ouralliancemechanics:1978,1997andtoday’sGuidelines
B. Japan‐ChinarivalryinAsia?ASEAN’sfears
C. Theregionalimpactofunresolvedhistoricallegacies
a. Japan‐SouthKoreaandthesetbackforU.S.ledalliance
trilateralsecuritycooperation
b. China’sabandonmentofJapan‐PRC‐ROKtrilateraleffortat
regionalcooperation
c. TheEastAsiaSummit
d. NewalignmentsforJapan?Australia,India,Russia
D. EconomicinterdependenceandTPP:wherearethe
vulnerabilities/opportunities?
E. WhathasbecomeoftheObamaAdministration’s“rebalancetoAsia”?
IV.
Factoringinthedomesticpressures
A. Japan’sNewPoliticsandtheU.S.‐JapanAlliance
B. GrowingnationalismsinNEAsiaandthepostwarsettlements
C. HistoricalreconciliationasastrengthoftheU.S.‐Japanalliance
D. Politicalleadersandtheirresponsibilities
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