Global Downturn’s Heavy Toll
Bruce Stokes
Director, Global Economic Attitudes
Pew Research Center
June 5, 2013
RIETI BBL Seminar
Spring 2013 Pew Global Attitudes Survey
Economic Sentiment
2
Crisis Soured Economic Views
% Say economy is good
2007
2013
48 46
43
25
24
Advanced
49
Emerging
Developing
Median based only on those countries surveyed in both 2007 and 2013.
3
China Happiest with Economy
Current economic situation is…
Good
Bad
China
Malaysia
Philippines
Australia
Indonesia
Japan
S. Korea
Pakistan
U.S.
Germany
EU median*
%
88
85
68
67
37
27
20
17
33
75
9
*EU median includes Britain, France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Poland and the Czech
Republic
%
10
14
31
30
62
71
79
81
65
25
91
4
OECD Sentiment Has Collapsed
% Economy is good
Spain
Britain
Italy
Czech Rep.
France
U.S.
Canada
Poland
Israel
Japan
Germany
S. Korea
Australia
Greece
Median*
2007
2013
Change
65
69
25
41
30
50
80
36
46
28
63
8
---
4
15
3
20
9
33
67
27
43
27
75
20
67
1
-61
-54
-22
-21
-21
-17
-13
-9
-3
-1
+12
+12
---
%
44
%
24
-20
*Median based only on those countries surveyed in both 2007 and 2013.
5
Emerging Markets’ Mood Mixed
Mexico
Russia
China
Turkey
Malaysia
Chile
Indonesia
Brazil
S. Africa
Median*
2007
% Economy is good
2013
%
%
51
38
82
46
76
49
23
---
38
33
88
53
85
58
37
59
53
48
46
Change
-13
-5
+6
+7
+9
+9
+14
---
-2
*Median based only on those countries surveyed in both 2007 and 2013.
6
Developing Countries Negative
2007
Pakistan
Egypt
Ghana
Jordan
Kenya
Lebanon
Uganda
Palest. ter.
Philippines
Bolivia
Senegal
El Salvador
Nigeria
Tunisia
Median*
%
59
53
57
45
60
9
40
10
------49
% Economy is good
2013
Change
17
23
37
27
52
10
44
22
68
54
48
33
32
11
25
-42
-30
-20
-18
-8
+1
+4
+12
-------24
%
*Median based only on those countries surveyed in both 2007 and 2013.
7
Advanced Econ. Most Pessimistic
Over the next 12 months, the economy will…
Remain the
Improve
same
Worsen
%
%
%
Advanced
24
40
32
Emerging
48
25
17
Developing
43
26
21
Medians for…
8
Asian Outlook for Economy
In the next 12 months, the economy will…
Improve
Remain the same
Worsen
China
Malaysia
Philippines
Japan
S. Korea
Indonesia
Australia
Pakistan
U.S.
Germany
EU median*
%
80
64
55
40
40
37
31
26
44
27
15
%
13
25
34
47
40
48
41
26
22
49
31
*EU median includes Britain, France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Poland and the Czech
Republic
%
2
6
8
11
18
10
24
29
33
23
47
9
OECD Countries Very Pessimistic
Over the next 12 months, national economic conditions will…
Improve
U.S.
Japan
S. Korea
Australia
Canada
Israel
Germany
Spain
Britain
Italy
Czech Rep.
Poland
Greece
France
Remain the same
44
40
40
Worsen
33
22
41
31
47
29
39
27
49
27
29
23
40
22
31
19
47
15
51
14
20
14
28
11
47
40
11
18
24
21
30
23
47
37
48
35
30
64
61
10
Emerging Economies Upbeat
Over the next 12 months, national economic conditions will…
Improve
Remain the same
China
Brazil
64
Malaysia
56
Mexico
48
S. Africa
39
Turkey
Russia
24
13 3
79
15
25
22
24
19
23
6
32
48
53
6
6
47
37
Indonesia
80
26
42
Chile
Worsen
10
18
11
Developing Economies Mixed
Over the next 12 months, national economic conditions will…
Improve
Senegal
Nigeria
Ghana
Kenya
Philippines
Tunisia
El Salvador
Uganda
Bolivia
Egypt
Jordan
Palest. ter.
Pakistan
Lebanon
Remain the same
Worsen
69
17
9
66
17
11
60 14
19
59
18
16
55
34
8
50
19
25
44
38
17
42
23
23
37
42
15
29
26
42
28
33
37
27
33
35
26
26
29
19
33
48
12
Grim View of Personal Finances
Over the next 12 months, your personal economic situation will…
Improve
Remain the same
43
U.S.
Australia
Canada
26
24
24
23
20
Germany
Israel
Britain
Czech Rep.
Poland
Italy
France
Greece
Japan
Spain
44
50
48
55
62
38
36
34
S. Korea
15
14
13
12
12
Worsen
13
11
15
10
12
53
49
54
58
18
24
22
17
30
43
53
43
32
65
58
54
21
29
13
But Emerging Markets Positive
Over the next 12 months, your personal economic situation will…
Improve
Remain the same
Worsen
88 11 1
Brazil
71
China
63
Malaysia
61
Mexico
52
Indonesia
48
Chile
38
Turkey
29
3
31
3
25
12
41
3
42
45
S. Africa
Russia
23
31
30
55
5
21
29
10
14
As Are Most Dev. Economies
Over the next 12 months, personal economic situation will…
Improve
Nigeria
Senegal
Ghana
Kenya
Philippines
Bolivia
Uganda
El Salvador
Tunisia
Pakistan
Palest. ter.
Jordan
Egypt
Lebanon
Remain the same
Worsen
77 12 7
76 13 6
71 9 13
14
65 16
4
36
58
8
30
57
17
22
54
9
39
52
21
24
48
16
26
43
24
34
34
34
31
32
48
28
21
43
41
12
15
Japan Has Lowest Deprivation
% Could not afford food
48
48
Pakistan
Philippines
26
25
24
S. Korea
Indonesia
U.S.
16
15
12
EU median*
Malaysia
Australia
8
8
China
Germany
Japan
2
*EU median includes Britain, France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Poland and the Czech
Republic
16
Spring 2013 Pew Global Attitudes Survey
Europe’s Severe Crisis
17
Only Germans Positive About
Economy
% Good
100
Germany
Britain
France
Spain
Poland
80
75
69
65
60
63
40
36
27
30
15
20
9
4
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
18
Few Say Economy Will Improve
Over next 12 months, the economy will…
Improve
Remain the same
Spain
23
Britain
22
47
29
37
40
48
31
19
Italy
23
49
27
Germany
Worsen
Czech Rep.
15
47
35
Poland
14
51
30
Greece
14
France
11
20
28
64
61
19
Majorities Say Children Will Be
Worse Off than Parents
Worse off Better off
Czech Rep.
58 28
Germany
64 28
Spain
65 28
Poland
61 26
Greece
67 21
Britain
74 17
Italy
73 14
France
90 9
20
Spring 2013 Pew Global Attitudes Survey
Challenges and Policy Options
21
Jobs and Prices Top Concerns
Median % Very big problem
Lack of job Rising Rich-poor Public
gap
opportunities prices
debt
%
%
%
%
Advanced
68
57
53
61
Emerging
76
83
67
63
Developing
91
88
74
71
22
Japan: Jobs, Debt Top Concerns
Median % Very big problem
Lack of job
Rising Rich-poor
opportunities
prices
gap
Pakistan
Philippines
Indonesia
S. Korea
Japan
Malaysia
Australia
China
U.S.
Germany
EU median*
%
94
84
73
69
58
57
38
28
58
28
80
%
99
88
83
56
36
71
39
59
51
31
68
*EU median includes Britain, France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Poland and the Czech
Republic
%
85
53
46
66
34
41
33
52
47
51
65
Public
debt
%
82
81
63
62
60
64
33
13
61
37
71
23
Unemployment and Inflation
Highest Priorities
Median % who say government should
address __ first
Lack of
employment
opportunities
Rising
prices
Richpoor
gap
Public
debt
%
%
%
%
Advanced
49
11
17 19
Emerging
33
33
11
5
Developing
44
32
6
6
24
Japan Priority: Jobs
Should government first address…
Japan
Philippines
S. Korea
Australia
Indonesia
Pakistan
Malaysia
China
U.S.
Germany
EU median*
Lack of employment
opportunities
%
52
46
41
38
27
17
14
11
41
23
61
Rising
prices
%
9
41
20
19
42
68
38
53
9
6
10
Rich-poor
gap
%
*EU median includes Britain, France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Poland and the Czech
Republic
9
3
24
17
4
4
6
26
17
42
10
Public
debt
25
10
10
21
5
5
13
1
28
21
17
25
Young Japanese Prioritize Public
Debt
Most important for government to address first
Total
Rising
prices
Lack of job
opportunities
Rich-poor
gap
Public
debt
%
%
%
%
9
52
9
25
9
10
9
42
48
55
11
12
8
37
26
23
Age
18-29
30-49
50+
26
Inequality a Global Problem
Rich-poor gap…
System
favors
wealthy*
Has
increased
past 5 years
Is a
very big
problem
%
%
%
Advanced
74
80
53
Emerging
70
59
67
Developing
70
70
74
Medians for…
*Data not available for China.
27
And Inequality Has Increased
The gap between the rich and poor has __ in recent years
Pakistan
S. Korea
China
Philippines
Australia
Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
U.S.
Germany
EU median*
Increased
Stayed the same
Decreased
83
79
69
66
64
60
58
32
66
88
82
7
16
9
24
25
29
32
38
25
11
12
3
5
17
9
4
10
7
22
5
1
3
%
%
*EU median includes Britain, France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Poland and the Czech
Republic
%
28
Young Japanese Less Concerned
about Inequality
Rich-poor gap is a
Rich-poor gap has
very big problem increased in last five years
Total
%
%
34
58
22
37
35
42
61
61
Age
18-29
30-49
50+
29
Most Say System is Unfair
Fair to most
Favors the wealthy
S. Korea
14 85
Pakistan
5
81
EU Median*
14 79
Indonesia
22 75
Germany
26 72
Japan
Japan
34 61
U.S.
35 61
Philippines
39 59
Australia
51 44
Malaysia
56 32
30
All Pew Global Attitudes Project reports and data
are available online at www.pewglobal.org