RIETI BBL Seminar Handout Speaker1: Andrew W. WYCKOFF (OECD)

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Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)
RIETI BBL Seminar
Handout
September 14, 2012
Speaker1: Andrew W. WYCKOFF (OECD)
Speaker2: Dominique GUELLEC (OECD)
http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/index.html
Exploiting Global-value Chains and
Knowledge-Based Capital for Growth
Andy Wyckoff – RIETI BBL
14 September 2012
1
Outline of the presentation
1. The role of knowledge-based assets for growth:
• What are they and why do they matter?
• What are the main policy issues?
• What is the OECD doing?
2. Global value chains and competitiveness
• What are global value chains
• What do we know, what measures do we have?
• Improving measurement – trade in value added
• Implications for trade policy
• Upgrading value chains – policy issues
3. Conclusions and future work
What is knowledge-based capital (KBC) ?
Three main types of assets being examined
Computerised information
(software, databases)
Innovative property
trademarks, designs)
(patents,
copyrights,
Economic competencies (brand equity, firmspecific human capital, business networks,
organisational know-how that increases enterprise
efficiency, etc.)
3
Investment in KBC is growing in importance
Investment in intangible assets as a percentage of GDP
Australia
Canada
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
%
14
Japan
12
10
8
6
4
2
Source: COINVEST [www.coinvest.org.uk] and research papers, 2009.
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
0
And rising in importance compared to tangible
assets
U.S. non-farm business investment in KBC and tangible assets
(% output)
16%
14%
tangible investment
12%
10%
8%
6%
Investment in KBC
4%
2%
0%
5
Source: Corrado and Hulten (2010)
KBC accounts for over half of all business
investment in several countries …
Business investment in KBC and tangible assets as a share of GDP, 2009
25%
20%
15%
Tangible
10%
KBC
5%
0%
Source: Corrado et al (2012, forthcoming)
And KBC a driver of productivity growth
Contributions to labour productivity growth, 1995-2006, in %
%
Labour quality
Physical capital deepening
Multifactor productivity
Intangible capital deepening
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
Source: Data on intangible investment are based on COINVEST [www.coinvest.org.uk] and research papers, 2009.
Why this increased business investment in KBC ?
•Rising educational attainment in OECD economies;
many products becoming more knowledge intensive.
•With globalisation and deregulation, competitive
advantage increasingly driven by innovation….in turn driven
by investments in intangibles.
•New ICTs increase the value of some intangibles to firms.
•Growth of the services sector: services rely highly on the
use of intangibles.
• Fragmentation of value chains – and increasing
sophistication of production in many industries – increase the
importance of KBC, particularly organisational capital.
8
Why this increased business investment in KBC ?
Rising educational attainment in OECD economies.
Many
becoming
more knowledge
KBCproducts
is based
fundamentally
onintensive.
human
capital
(skills, knowledge,
creativity).
With globalisation
and deregulation,
competitive advantage
increasingly driven by innovation….in turn driven by investments in
intangibles.
New ICTs may itself increase the value of some intangibles to firms.
Growth of the services sector, as many service sector firms rely highly
on the use of intangibles.
Fragmentation of value chains – and increasing sophistication of
production in many industries – increase the importance of intangibles,
particularly organisational capital.
9
Why this increased business investment in KBC?
Rising educational attainment in OECD economies.
Many products becoming more knowledge intensive.
With globalisation and deregulation, competitive advantage
increasingly driven
by innovation….in
turn driven view
by investments in
Automotive
manufacturers
intangibles.
leadership in control software as vital
Fragmentation of value chains – and increasing sophistication of
production in many industries – increase the importance of intangibles,
particularly organisational capital.
Chevrolet Volt has
New ICTs may itself increase the value
of some intangibles
to firms.
10,000,000
lines of
code.
Growth of the services sector, as many service sector firms rely highly
on the use of intangibles.
10
Why this increased business investment in KBC?
Rising educational attainment in OECD economies.
Many products becoming more knowledge intensive.
With globalisation and deregulation, competitive advantage
increasingly driven by innovation….in turn driven by investments in
Approx 40%
of development
costs
Automotive
manufacturers
view in cars today
intangibles.
in control software
as vital
are softwareleadership
and electronics
related.
Fragmentation of value chains – and increasing sophistication of
production in many industries – increase the importance of intangibles,
particularly organisational capital.Chevrolet Volt has
10,000,000 lines of code.
New ICTs may itself increase the value of some intangibles to firms.
Growth of the services sector, as many service sector firms rely highly
on the use of intangibles.
11
Why this increased business investment in KBC?
“Our clothes are Italian, French and German, so the profits
Rising
attainment
in create
OECD brands,
economies.
are all educational
leaving China…We
need to
and fast”.
SG, China Industrial Overseas
Many products
becoming
more knowledge
Development
and Planning
Assoc. intensive.
With globalisation and deregulation, competitive advantage
increasingly driven by innovation….in turn driven by investments in
intangibles…and not just R&D.
New ICTs may itself increase the value of some
firms.
E.g.intangibles
patentable to
technology
is only about 25% of the
Growth of the services sector, as many service value
sectoroffirms
rely highly
the iPhone
on the use of intangibles.
(Korkeamaki and Takalo (2010)
Fragmentation of value chains – and increasing sophistication of
production in many industries – increase the importance of intangibles,
particularly organisational capital.
12
Why this increased business investment in KBC?
Rising educational attainment in OECD economies.
Many products becoming more knowledge intensive.
With globalisation and deregulation, competitive advantage
increasingly driven by innovation….in turn driven by investments in
intangibles...and not just R&D.
New ICTs may itself increase the value of some intangibles to firms.
99%services
of the time,
at least
one Internet
Growth of the
sector,
as many
service bookseller
sector firms rely highly
a lower price than Amazon ! But Amazon
on the use ofoffers
intangibles.
retains a large market share due to reputation
for customer
Fragmentation
of valueservice.
chains – and increasing sophistication of
(Brynjolfsson
and Smith,
2000). the importance of intangibles,
production in
many industries
– increase
particularly organisational capital.
13
Why this increased business investment in KBC?
Rising educational attainment in OECD economies.
Many products becoming more knowledge intensive.
With globalisation and deregulation, competitive advantage
increasingly driven by innovation….in turn driven by investments in
intangibles...and not just R&D.
New ICTs may itself increase the value of some intangibles to firms.
Growth of the services sector, as many service sector firms rely highly
on the use of intangibles.
Fragmentation of value chains – and increasing sophistication of
production in many industries – increase the importance of intangibles,
E.g. Wal-Mart’s computerised
particularly organisational capital.
supply chains; Merck’s multiple R&D
alliances; 100s of subcontractors
14
in aerospace.
Some of the key policy issues?
Redefining “framework” conditions
• Tax
• Competition
• Property Rights
• Finance
• Skills
• Corporate Accounting
The rise of Global Value Chains: what?
• International production networks; dispersion of
production stages across countries and corresponding
(intra-industry trade)
• Networks of activities, firms (MNEs and local firms),
industries and countries
• Reallocation of resources across a growing number of
countries: e.g. low skilled labor
• More specialisation, complex production relationships,
profound changes in countries’ competitiveness
• Global flows of goods (final and inputs), services,
capital, people, technology…
Airline industry: Boeing 787 Dreamliner
Wing box: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan)
Wing ice protection: GKN Aerospace (UK)
Centre fuselage: Alenia Aeronautica (Italy)
Escape slides: Air Cruisers (USA)
Rear fuselage:
Boeing South Carolina (USA)
Vertical Stabiliser: Boeing
Commercial Airplanes (USA)
Forward fuselage:
Kawasaki Heavy Industries (Japan)
Spirit Aerosystems (USA)
Lavatories:
Jamco (Japan)
Doors & windows:
Zodiac Aerospace (USA)
PPG Aerospace (USA)
Flight deck seats:
Ipeco (UK)
Raked wing tips: Korean Airlines
Aerospace division (Korea)
Horizontal Stabiliser:
Alenia Aeronautica (Italy)
Centre wing box:
Fuji Heavy Industries (Japan)
Aux. power unit: Hamilton
Sundstrand (USA)
Passenger doors:
Latécoère Aéroservices (France)
Cargo doors: Saab (Sweden)
Prepreg composites:
Toray (Japan)
Landing gear: Messier-Dowti (France)
Electric brakes: Messier-Bugatti (France)
Tires: Bridgestone Tires (Japan)
Source: www.newairplane.com
Engines: GE Engines (USA),
Rolls Royce (UK)
Engine nacelles: Goodrich (USA)
Tools/Software: Dassault Systemes (France)
Navigation: Honeywell (USA)
Pilot control system: Rockwell Colins (USA)
Wiring: Safran (France)
Final assembly: Boeing
Commercial Airplanes (USA)
Automotive industry: Renault Clio
18
Toys: Barbie doll
Design: California,
USA
Nylon hair: Japan
Body material:
Chinese Taipei
Moulds, paint
pigments: USA
Clothing:
China
Quality testing:
USA
Assembly:
Indonesia and
Malaysia
Marketing: USA
Source: Grossman and Rossi-Hansberg (2006)
Apple’s iPod
The Apple iPod = 299$ of
Chinese exports to US
Distribution of the
value added
• 299 US$
– 75$ profit to US (Apple)
– 73$ whls/retail US (Apple)
– 75$ to Japan (Toshiba)
– 60$ 400 parts from Asia
– 15$ 16 parts from the US
– 2$ assembly by China
• iTunes Music Store (2003)
– 70% digital market share
– Platform for everything
20
– Data flow to the consumer
Policy issues
• GVCs are not a new phenomenon, but the scale, speed and
complexity raises several policy issues
5 Policy Issue Areas
1. Measurement of GVCs: Trade in Value Added (TiVA)
2. GVCs and trade policy
3. GVCs and national competitiveness… the recurring
discussion on industrial policy
4. GVCs and global systemic risk
5. GVCs and upgrading –
knowledge based assets
1. Measurement: Issues with current
trade statistics
• Three issues:
1. Multiple counting of intermediate
goods and services
2. Tends to conceal the actual patterns
of trade & beneficiaries
3.Incomplete picture as knowledge
and income flows are not measured.
22
An alternative measure: Trade in
value added (TiVA)
• Objectives
– Reduce multiple counting of intermediate goods and services
– Properly account for the country of origin of each intermediate input
– Identify who (country/sectors) contributes to the value chain in terms
of income and employment
– Foster a closer integration between trade, business, balance of
payments statistics and national accounts.
• OECD-WTO collaboration
–
–
–
–
Cooperation with IDE-JETRO, USITC, academic experts, etc.
Produce and disseminate trade statistics in value added
Promote evidence-based policy making
Support and sustain research in the related fields
23
Exported Value-Added: % of Gross Exports
1995
%
100
2009
80
60
40
China
Japan
Korea
Germany Czech Hungary France United
United
Republic
Kingdom States
Imports increasingly important in exports, and
thus national competitveness (1)
Import content of exports, 1995
Source: OECD (2011)
Imports increasingly important in exports, and
thus national competitveness (2)
Import content of exports, 2005
Source: OECD (2011)
TiVA: Value-added chains (by
product)
Germany- automotive
China - electronics
27
Foreign content share of China's
exports
1995
2005
Services
US$ 8 bn
Primary
US$ 8 bn
Services
US$ 56 bn
Primary
US$ 16 bn
6%
9%
4% 4%
Higher Tech
US$ 57 bn
11%
25%
10%
9%
Lower Tech
US$ 387 bn
Lower Tech
US$ 106 bn
Foreign
Domestic
Higher Tech
US$ 343 bn
Japan’s exports by region, 2009
Export partner share (gross) Export partner share (VA)
19%
26%
19%
22%
14%
21%
14%
18%
27%
20%
China OtherAsia Japan United States Europe Rest of World
Trade in Services: Gross vs. Value Added
% total exports of
gross flows
%
% total exports of
value-added
Gross flows
1995
Value-added flows
1995
2009
2009
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
China
United Germany Japan United France
States
Kingdom
Italy
Canada Rest of
World
China
United Germany Japan United France
States
Kingdom
Italy
Canada Rest of
World
GVCs and trade policy
• Bilateral trade balances misrepresented…
….currency valuations put in new light…
… may give rise to trade disputes: who is ‘us’ and who
is ‘them’ in a world of GVCs?
• Calls into question « anti-dumping » measures and
more generally the extra-costs of protectionist
policies (import tariffs, rules of origin, etc)…
…‘beggar thyself’ instead of ‘beggar thy neighbour’
GVCs and national competitiveness
• Imports increasingly important for exports
(no mercantilistic approach: ‘exports are good,
imports are bad’)
• Better understanding the direct link between
trade and income & jobs
• Better understanding the link between
manufacturing and services;
• Questions about the link between R&D, design
and production.
GVCs and upgrading/innovation
• Exports and imports are not value added
• Being stuck in the middle: value created upstream
and downstream – moving up the value chain
• Challange for emerging economies: making sure that
value ‘sticks’ as developed economies retain value
creation
• Importance of knowledge based capital
A GVC perspective is also important for
upgrading, i.e. increasing value creation
Old paradigm:
From low to high value-added sectors
Services
Manufacturing
New paradigm:
From low to high value-added activities
within sectors
Commodities
Services
R&D,
design
Operations
34
Moving up the value chain –
capturing more value
Value creation along the value chain
Source: Presentation G. Gereffi , GVC workshop ‘GVCs and emerging countries’ workshop , Paris (2010)
Upgrading is not always a shift to upstream activities
but also about strengthening technological capabilities
Upgrading path
Types of Upgrading
Example
Process Upgrading
Improving the efficiency of internal processes significantly better
Hon Hai Precision Industry
than rivals (faster processing, lower scrap and defection, higher
(World's largest OEM firms )
ability to process complex order (frequent and small batch))
Product Upgrading
ASUSTek (inventor of netbook),
Introducing new products or improving old products faster than
rivals. Developing novel products with highly superior function and Mabuchi Motors (micromotors),
Karcher (high-pressure cleaner)
quality than that of rivals.
Establishing competitiveness in higher value added activities by
Functional Upgrading acquisition of new function or moving the locus of activities to
different stages in the value chain (ex: from production to R&D)
Chain Upgrading
Shifting part of or whole activitiy to other value chain rewarding
higher value-added
Dell, Hewlet-Packard
(acquisition of cloud-computing
business),
Lenovo (acquisition of IBM's
R&D capability and brand)
Samsung (from flat panel TV to
semiconductor to solar cell)
36
What is the OECD doing? Next Steps
• Wide-ranging work on GVCs
“horizontally” across the OECD.
and
KBC
• KBC Conference planned in February; GVC
Workshop in March 2013
• Separate reports to OECD Ministerial in
May/June 2013
• Deepening and
2013/2014
further work planned in
In sum
• Knowledge-based assets:
Summing up
 The nature of investment is changing; the policy agenda still
needs to adapt, e.g.:
 Tax and competition policy
 IPR policies
 New opportunities for growth and value creation, e.g. data
 Measurement a challenge
• Global Value Chains:
 Need to better understand who creates value in trade
 Can contribute a new trade narrative
 Upgrading is increasingly linked to specific functions, rather
than sectors, and is often based on knowledge-based assets.
 Requires broad-ranging policy agenda, including trade policy,
innovation, skills and structural policy
38
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