Jönköping University 2004 09 12
The Nordic countries - Leaders in the
New Economy? ICT, Innovation and
Economic Performance
Thomas Andersson
RIETI
April 12, 2006
Systematic reductions in transport and
communication costs
120
Sea freight 1)
Satelite Charges
Air transport 2)
Bandwidth cost
Telecommunication 3)
Index (1930=100)
100
80
60
40
20
0
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Note: 1) Average ocean freight and port charges per short ton of import and export cargo. 2) Average air transport per passenger mile. Cost for 1920
not available. 3) Cost of a 3 minute telephone call New York to London. Cost for 1920 not available.
Source: Georg Hufbauer: World Economic Integration: The Long View, in Economic Insights, Vol. 30 (1991), pp. 26-27, Globalisation and the
Competitiveness of Regional Blocs, Bernhard Fisher, Intereconomics 1998/04, and Tariffs, Transport Costs and the WTO Doha Round: The Case of
Developing Countries, Mattias Busse, in Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Vol. 4 (2003), No. 1, pp. 15-31.
Systematic reductions in transport and
communication costs
120
Sea freight 1)
Satelite Charges
Air transport 2)
Bandwidth cost
Telecommunication 3)
100
Index (1930=100)
Phase 1: Sea freight and air transport rates fall
80
60
40
20
0
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Note: 1) Average ocean freight and port charges per short ton of import and export cargo. 2) Average air transport per passenger mile. Cost for 1920
not available. 3) Cost of a 3 minute telephone call New York to London. Cost for 1920 not available.
Source: Georg Hufbauer: World Economic Integration: The Long View, in Economic Insights, Vol. 30 (1991), pp. 26-27, Globalisation and the
Competitiveness of Regional Blocs, Bernhard Fisher, Intereconomics 1998/04, and Tariffs, Transport Costs and the WTO Doha Round: The Case of
Developing Countries, Mattias Busse, in Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Vol. 4 (2003), No. 1, pp. 15-31.
Systematic reductions in transport and
communication costs
120
Sea freight 1)
Satelite Charges
Air transport 2)
Bandwidth cost
Telecommunication 3)
Index (1930=100)
100
80
Phase 2: Freight rates stabilize;
communication costs plummet
60
40
20
0
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Note: 1) Average ocean freight and port charges per short ton of import and export cargo. 2) Average air transport per passenger mile. Cost for 1920
not available. 3) Cost of a 3 minute telephone call New York to London. Cost for 1920 not available.
Source: Georg Hufbauer: World Economic Integration: The Long View, in Economic Insights, Vol. 30 (1991), pp. 26-27, Globalisation and the
Competitiveness of Regional Blocs, Bernhard Fisher, Intereconomics 1998/04, and Tariffs, Transport Costs and the WTO Doha Round: The Case of
Developing Countries, Mattias Busse, in Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Vol. 4 (2003), No. 1, pp. 15-31.
The Economic Evolution
towards the Networked Society
Data
Information
Knowledge
Ubiquitous
Product
Solution
Innovation
Ecosystems
Competition
Cooperation
Collaboration
Coopetition
50’s – 70’s
70’s – 90’s
90’s – 2000’s
Today?
ICT for Business Ecosystems
[Source: Gerald Santucci, European Commission Directorate-General Information Society Unit D5: ICT for Business, Global Forum 2004]
The Digital Divide and ICT Infrastructure
Telephone mainlines (per 1,000 people)
Per 1,000 people
800
1995
2002
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
North
America
Western
Europe
East Asia & East Europe Middle East
Pacific
& Central
& North
Asia *
Africa
Source: World Development Indicators, 2005
Latin
America &
Caribbean
South Asia
SubSaharan
Africa *
Least
developed
countries *
The Digital Divide and ICT Infrastructure:
Internet Users (per 1,000 people)
Per 1,000 people
600
1995
2002
500
400
300
200
100
0
North
America *
Western
Europe
East Asia & East Europe Middle East
& North
Pacific
& Central
Africa
Asia
Source: World Development Indicators, 2005
Latin
America &
Caribbean
South Asia
SubSaharan
Africa
Least
developed
countries
The Digital Divide and ICT Infrastructure:
Mobile Phones (per 1,000 people)
Per 1,000 people
900
1995
2002
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
North
America
Western
Europe
East Asia & East Europe Middle East
Pacific
& Central
& North
Asia
Africa
Source: World Development Indicators, 2005
Latin
America &
Caribbean
South Asia
SubSaharan
Africa
Least
developed
countries
Mobile subscribers across regions, 2004
Subscribers in Million, 2004
Current growth Rates, %
800
80
700
70
600
60
500
50
400
40
300
30
200
20
100
10
-
Asia
Europe
U.S.
China
Cellular mobile subscribers
0
Asia
Europe
U.S.
China
Growth rate of Mobile subscribers, 1999-2004
Penetration of Mobile subscribers, 2004
Source: International Telecommunication Union (ITU)
Looking for the effects
• From producer to the user side
• Levels: firm, industry, aggregate
• From individual production factors to
total factor-productivity
• From static to dynamic: processes over time
• Complementary/enabling factors
Crucial determinants
• Regulation - competition
• Human capital: from quantity of education to
quality, learning, use of skills, learning
• Research, innovation, linkages
• Organisational change
• Entrepreneurship, risk-taking
Investment in education in relation to
GDP 2001
Per cent
8
Other levels of education
7
Tertiary education
6
5
4
3
2
1
Source: OECD (2004)
d
lan
Ire
pa
n
Ja
ds
lan
Ne
th
er
an
y
Ge
rm
nd
it z
Sw
ng
d
Ki
d
Un
ite
er
la
om
nd
n la
Fi
Fr
an
ce
ay
No
rw
n
Sw
ed
e
k
ar
De
nm
Un
ite
d
St
at
es
0
Exchange of tertiary level students, 2000
43 415
66 982
22 227
EU
1 456
USA
A.ASEM
169 464
2 170
Note: Luxembourg and Greece are not includen in the EU aggregate. Brunei, Singapore and Vietnam are not included in the A.ASEM aggregate.
Source: OECD Education database.
Social trust ranking
Source: Norris (2001).
R&D in the OECD and non-OECD area 2003,
GERD in billion USD
Researchers per 1000 employment
12
Sweden; 10
10
Japan; 113
Russian
Federation; 17
United States
(2002); 276
8
Chinese Taipei;
13
6
EU25; 211
4
2
India (2000-01);
R&D expenditures in
billions of current PPP
China; 85
21
0
0
1
2
3
4
GERD as % of GDP
Source: OECD, Main Science and Technology Indicators 2005-2 (MSTI) and OECD Science, Technology
and Industry Scoreboard (STI) 2005
5
Business R&D expenditure in relation to GDP 1981–2003, percent
Percent of GDP
4,0
Israel
Sw eden
3,5
Finland
3,0
Japan
United States
2,5
Korea
2,0
Germany
Denmark
1,5
France
1,0
United Kingdom
0,5
Russian
Federation
Czech Republic
0,0
1981
1983
Source: OECD MSTI, 2005
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Italy
Cluster dynamics and linkages: cooperation
and competition
Source: IKED (2003)
R&D expenditure in relation to GDP 2003
Business sector Universities & colleges Government organisations
Israel
Sweden
Finland
Japan
Korea
United States
Germany
Denmark
France
Netherlands (2001)
United Kingdom
Russian Federation
Czech Republic
Ireland (2001)
Italy (2001)
0
0,5
Source: OECD MSTI 2005
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
Percent of GDP
5
Science & Engineering articles by country
2001
Number
1400
Number of publications per million population
Percentage of world total Per cent
35%
C hina
K o re a, R e p.
R us s ia n F e deration
Source: National Science Indicators (NSI) database, 2002 and World Development Indicators 2005
C z e c h R ep u b lic
S pa in
Ita ly
Ire lan d
J ap a n
F ran c e
0%
G e rm a ny
0
A us tria
5%
B e lgiu m
200
U n ited S tates
10%
N o rw ay
400
C a nada
15%
N e th erlan ds
600
U n ite d K in g d o m
20%
D e nm a rk
800
F in la n d
25%
Is ra e l
1000
S w itz e rla nd
30%
S w eden
1200
Patents to EPO & USPTO,
relative to population, 2004
USPTO
0,040%
EPO
0,00025%
0,00020%
0,035%
0,00015%
0,030%
0,00010%
0,00005%
0,025%
0,00000%
Russian Federation
China
India
China
India
0,020%
0,015%
0,010%
0,005%
0,000%
Japan
United
States
Sweden
European Russian
Union (15) Federation
Source: OECD Patent Data base (2005) and World Development Indicators (2005)
High-technology exports in percent of
manufactured exports, 2000-2003, percent
China
35
European
Monetary Union
France
30
25
Percent
Germany
20
India
15
Japan
10
Norway
5
Sweden
0
United States
2000
Source: WDI Database, 2005
2001
2002
2003
GDP based on PPP per capita GDP (USD),
1980=100
600
500
Index 1980=100
400
300
200
100
Czech Republic
Finland
France
Ireland
Japan
Russia
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
United States
0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database.
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Abandoning the linear model
Source: IKED
Lack of seed funding
Public
Science
Gap
Developm.
Private
Launching
Expansion
Established
technology
High-tech venture capital as a percentage of
total venture capital investment, 2000-2003
%
100
Communications
Information technology
Health/biotechnology
80
60
40
(1) 2000-2002, (2) 1998-2001
Source: OECD, Science Technology and Industry Scoreboard, 2005
Spain
Slovak Republic
Portugal
Netherlands
Australia (2)
United Kingdom
Italy
Japan (2)
EU
France
Germany
Sweden
Korea (2)
Switzerland
Belgium
Finland
Greece
Poland
Iceland (1)
Austria
Hungary
Czech Republic
Norway
New Zealand (2)
Denmark
United States
Canada
Ireland
0
OECD
20
Entry and exit of firms, manufacturing and
business services, 1997-2000, percent
Exit rate (%)
11
United Kingdom
10
9
Denmark
United Kingdom
Belgium
8
Netherlands
Finland
Spain
7
Finland Italy
Spain
Netherlands
Denmark
6
Belgium
5
Portugal
Sw eden
Portugal
Sw eden
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Entry rate (%)
Source: OECD, STI Scoreboard 2003
Japan
B e lg iu m
R u s s ia
F ra n c e
S p a in
Sw eden
S lo v e n ia
UK
G e rm a n y
F in la n d
N e th e rla n d s
P o la n d
Ita ly
D e n m a rk
H u n g a ry
N o rw a y
S w itz e rla n d
Ire la n d
A u s tra lia
S o u th
A fric a
C anada
Ic e la n d
U .S .
K o re a
C h ile
M e x ic o
B ra z il
A rg e n tin a
In d ia
P e rc e n ta g e o f 1 8 to 6 4 y e a rs o ld
Female and male entrepreneurial activity
25
Female
Male
20
15
10
5
0
Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) Countries (2002)
Source: Scientific Analysis of Entrepreneurship and SMEs (SCALE) paper N200510, 2006.