経済産業研究所（RIETI）
RIETI特別セミナー
プレゼンテーション資料
2011年7月26日
「東日本大震災の経済的影響」
（一部和訳）
深尾
京司
http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/index.html
一部 和訳
東日本大震災の経済的影響
RIETI研究プロジェクト
「地域別生産データベースの構築と
東日本大震災後の経済構造変化」
プログラムリーダー：徳井 丞次
The 1st ASIA KLEMS Conference
July 27, 2011
RIETI研究プロジェクト
「地域別生産データベースの構築と
東日本大震災後の経済構造変化」
プロジェクトメンバー
プロジェクトリーダー: 徳井丞次(信州大学経済学部/経済産業研究所)
プロジェクトサブリーダー: 宮川努(学習院大学経済学部/経済産業研究所)
プロジェクトサブリーダー: 荒井信幸 (和歌山大学)
プロジェクトメンバー：
新井園枝(経済産業省/一橋大学/経済産業研究所)
枝村一磨(東北大学)
深尾京司(一橋大学/経済産業研究所)
川崎一彦(東海大学)
児玉直美(経済産業省/経済産業研究所)
牧野達治(一橋大学)
野口尚洋(一橋大学)
CONTENTS
0. Introduction of the JIP/CIP Database Project
1. Japan’s Economic Conditions before the 3/11
Earthquake
2. The 3/11 Earthquake in Figures
3. The Impact of Supply Chain Disruptions
4. The Impact of Electric Power Constraints on
the Japanese Economy
4
0. ＪＩＰ/CIPデーターベースプロジェクトについて
RIETIの「産業・企業生産性向上」プログラムでは、
一橋大学と協力して、日本と中国の産業生産性
データベース（JIPおよびCIP）の更新・拡張を進めて
いる。また日本の都道府県別産業生産性データ
ベースを構築し、震災が地域経済に及ぼす影響と
復興政策を分析する。
0.ＪＩＰ/CIPデーターベースプロジェクトについて
JIPデータベース2011（1970年から2008年）、CIPデータベースラウンド1.0は
2011年9月までに公表される予定である。
範囲・整合性
CIPデータベースラウンド1.0は1987年から2008年をカバーする。
原則として、中国標準産業分類（CSIC）2002を満たすが、フローニンゲン大学
フローニンゲンGrowth and Developmentセンター（GGDC）によって行われた
EU/KLEMS分類にそって、35の産業に分類した。
主な指標
1.2005年 総産出額（GVO） 単位：10億人民元
2.2005年 粗付加価値（GVA） 単位：10億人民元
3.雇用数 単位：100万
4.労働時間 単位：100万
JIP・ EU KLEMS データベースの結果
日本の情報通信技術（ICT）投資GDP比は他の主要な先進国と比べ、とても低い。
ICT Investment-GDP Ratio in Major Developed Economies
14
12
Japan
Korea
10
US
UK
%
8
6
France
Germany
Italy
4
2
0
Source: Fukao, Miyagawa, Pyo and Rhee (2009).
7
JIPデータベースの結果
Figure 4. Cumulative Contribution of Industries to TFP Growth:
Japan, 1973-2006, Market Economy
1.4%
Sale, maintenance and repair of motor
vehicles and motorcycles; retail sale of
fuel
Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying
Pulp, paper, paper products, printing and
Rubber and plastics
publishing
Other non-metallic mineral products
Textiles, textile products, leather and
footwear
Renting
of
m&eq
and
other business
Wood and products of wood and cork
Electricity, gas and water supply
Manufacturing nec; recycling
activities
Transport and storage
Food , beverages and tobacco
Basic metals and fabricated metal
products
Post and telecommunications
Construction
Chemicals and chemical products
Coke, refined petroleum and nuclear fuel
Transport equipment
1.2%
Cumulative contribution to TFP growth (%)
水平破線で
示される経
済の生産性
向上は、全
体としては、
5つの主要
な産業の貢
献の合計よ
り低い。
1.0%
Other community, social and personal
services
Machinery, nec
0.8%
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and
motorcycles; repair of household goods
Hotels and restaurants
Financial intermediation
0.6%
Electrical and optical equipment
0.4%
Wholesale trade and commission trade,
except of motor vehicles and motorcycles
0.2%
0.0%
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Cumulative industry output percentile in aggregate gross output
0.8
0.9
1.0
JIPデータベースの結果
日本では、どの年代でも労働投入量の再配分効果はマイナスであっ
た。しかし、2000‐06年をのぞいて、すべての年代で資本投入量の再配
分にはかなり効果がみられた。また、1990‐2000年における労働投入
量・資本投入量の再配分の総計はDomarウェイトを用いたTFP上昇よ
り大きかった。
Table 4. Aggregate Reallocation Effects in Japan and Korea
Japan
(1) Growth rate of aggregated TFP, ν T
D
(2) Domar weighted TFP growth, ν T
(3) Reallocation effect of capital input
(4) Reallocation effect of labor input
a=b+c+d
1975-80
2.71
(Average annual growth rates: %)
1980-90 1990-2000 2000-06
1.64
0.23
0.51
b
2.60
1.73
0.10
1.13
c
d
0.13
-0.01
0.27
-0.36
0.15
-0.03
-0.29
-0.33
1. Japan’s Economic Conditions Before the 3/11 Earthquake
Before the
earthquake, Japan’s
economy was slowly
recovering following
the global financial
crisis and still had a
large GDP gap. The
global financial crisis
hit the Japanese
economy mainly
through a sharp drop
in exports.
Figure 16. Real GDP of Major OECD
Countries: Past Record and Forecast
(2007=100)
120
115
110
France
Germany
Italy
105
Japan
Korea
United Kingdom
100
United States
OECD, Economic
Ourlook 88, November 2010. 95
90
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
10
2. The 3/11 Earthquake in Figures
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Date: March 11, 2011
Affected Region: 450km ×200km
Magnitude: 9.0 (4th largest in world history
since 1900)
Seismic Intensity Level: 7 (maximum)
Maximum Height of Tsunami: 9.3m
Run-up Height of Tsunami: 40.5m
Loss of Life: 20,542 (including those missing:
4,937)
(as of July 22, 2011)
11
2. The 3/11 Earthquake in Figures
3/11 Earthquake Area by Seismic Intensity
Intensity
12
3.11 Earthquake:
Very large areas
were damaged by
the tsunami.
13
2. The 3/11 Earthquake in Figures
The Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake (1995)
• Direct Loss
- ¥ 9.9 trillion (Hyogo Prefectural Gov., 1995)
- ¥ 13.3 trillion (Toyoda & Kawauchi, 1997)
• Indirect Loss
- ¥ 7.2 trillion (Toyoda & Kawauchi, 1997)
The loss was estimated for the first year.
14
2. The 3/11 Earthquake in Figures
The Great East Japan (3/11) Earthquake
• Direct Loss
- ¥ 16.9 trillion (Cabinet Office, 2011)
The loss does not include direct losses due to the
accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant.
・ Indirect Loss
- unknown
15
3. サプライチェーンへの影響
• 東日本大震災で重大な被害を被ったのはど
の産業か？
• その被害の規模は？
• 深刻なサプライチェーンの混乱の影響を受け
たのはどの業界の製品か？
• その影響の度合いは？
データソースと手法（１）
• 被害の大きさを見積もるために以下の出典による
データを利用した
2009年経済センサス  地震による影響を受けた
労働者数（業種別、市町村別）
JIP2010  労働者一人当たりの資本金と生産（業
種別）
市町村毎の被害の割合は死亡者数、避難民数、
新聞報道での工場の被害数を元に試算
0
Agriculture, forestry and fishery
Mining
Coal mining , crude petroleum and natural gas
Beverages and Foods
Textile products
Wearing apparel and other textile products
Timber, wooden products and furniture
Pulp, paper, paperboard, building paper
Printing, plate making and book binding
Chemical basic product
Synthetic resins
Final chemical products
Medicaments
Petroleum and coal products
Plastic products
Ceramic, stone and clay products
Iron and steel
Non‐ferrous metals
Metal products
General machinery
Machinery for office and service industry
Electrical devices and parts
Other electrical machinery
Household electric appliances
Household electronics equipment
Electronic computing equipment and accessory…
Electronic components
Passenger motor cars
Other cars
Motor vehicle parts and accessories
Other transport equipment
Precision instruments
Miscellaneous manufacturing products
Reuse and recycling
Construction
Electricity
Gas and heat supply
Water supply and waste disposal business
Commerce
Finance and insurance
Real estate
House rent (imputed house rent)
Transport
Other information and communications
Information services
Public administration
Education and research
Medical service, health, social security and nursing…
Advertising services
Goods rental and leasing services
Other business services
Personal services
Others
Year 2000 prices, million yen
純資本ストックに対する損害
Tohoku
Kanto
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
Agriculture, forestry and fishery
Mining
Coal mining , crude petroleum and natural gas
Beverages and Foods
Textile products
Wearing apparel and other textile products
Timber, wooden products and furniture
Pulp, paper, paperboard, building paper
Printing, plate making and book binding
Chemical basic product
Synthetic resins
Final chemical products
Medicaments
Petroleum and coal products
Plastic products
Ceramic, stone and clay products
Iron and steel
Non‐ferrous metals
Metal products
General machinery
Machinery for office and service industry
Electrical devices and parts
Other electrical machinery
Household electric appliances
Household electronics equipment
Electronic computing equipment and accessory…
Electronic components
Passenger motor cars
Other cars
Motor vehicle parts and accessories
Other transport equipment
Precision instruments
Miscellaneous manufacturing products
Reuse and recycling
Construction
Electricity
Gas and heat supply
Water supply and waste disposal business
Commerce
Finance and insurance
Real estate
House rent (imputed house rent)
Transport
Other information and communications
Information services
Public administration
Education and research
Medical service, health, social security and nursing care
Advertising services
Goods rental and leasing services
Other business services
Personal services
Others
Year 2006 prices, million yen
直接損害 （年間総生産高ベース）
Tohoku
Kanto
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
データソースと手法（2）
• サプライチェーンの混乱による影響の試算：
地域間産業連関表2005（METI）
53部門×9地域
東北地域．．．岩手、宮城、福島
関東地域．．．茨城
“Forward Linkages” （Miller and Blair, Input-Output
Analysis (2nd ed.), 2009）の概念に基づく。
地域再分割と推定結果
地域間産業連関表2005（METI）では、表に示さ
れているとおり、日本を9地域に分割している。
丸で囲った地域（東北、関東）は震災でもっとも
大きな影響を受けた地域である。
この地域は、6.5兆円の直接的損害を受けた。
商業、建設、電力への影響が特に深刻である
。
この直接的損害はサプライチェーンを通して、
他の産業に波及する。特に、製造業への影響
は深刻である。我々の見積りでは、間接的損
害は17.3兆円に上るとみられる。
我々は総損害は23.8兆円と見積もっている。
0
Agriculture, forestry and fishery
Mining
Coal mining , crude petroleum and natural gas
Beverages and Foods
Textile products
Wearing apparel and other textile products
Timber, wooden products and furniture
Pulp, paper, paperboard, building paper
Printing, plate making and book binding
Chemical basic product
Synthetic resins
Final chemical products
Medicaments
Petroleum and coal products
Plastic products
Ceramic, stone and clay products
Iron and steel
Non‐ferrous metals
Metal products
General machinery
Machinery for office and service industry
Electrical devices and parts
Other electrical machinery
Household electric appliances
Household electronics equipment
Electronic computing equipment and accessory…
Electronic components
Passenger motor cars
Other cars
Motor vehicle parts and accessories
Other transport equipment
Precision instruments
Miscellaneous manufacturing products
Reuse and recycling
Construction
Electricity
Gas and heat supply
Water supply and waste disposal business
Commerce
Finance and insurance
Real estate
House rent (imputed house rent)
Transport
Other information and communications
Information services
Public administration
Education and research
Medical service, health, social security and nursing care
Advertising services
Goods rental and leasing services
Other business services
Personal services
Others
Year 2006 prices, million yen
損失合計額（直接＋間接）
（年間総生産高ベース）
Hokkaido
Tohoku
Kanto
Chubu
Kinki
Chugoku
Shikoku
Kyusyu
Okinawa
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
Agriculture, forestry and fishery
Mining
Coal mining , crude petroleum and natural gas
Beverages and Foods
Textile products
Wearing apparel and other textile products
Timber, wooden products and furniture
Pulp, paper, paperboard, building paper
Printing, plate making and book binding
Chemical basic product
Synthetic resins
Final chemical products
Medicaments
Petroleum and coal products
Plastic products
Ceramic, stone and clay products
Iron and steel
Non‐ferrous metals
Metal products
General machinery
Machinery for office and service industry
Electrical devices and parts
Other electrical machinery
Household electric appliances
Household electronics equipment
Electronic computing equipment and accessory…
Electronic components
Passenger motor cars
Other cars
Motor vehicle parts and accessories
Other transport equipment
Precision instruments
Miscellaneous manufacturing products
Reuse and recycling
Construction
Electricity
Gas and heat supply
Water supply and waste disposal business
Commerce
Finance and insurance
Real estate
House rent (imputed house rent)
Transport
Other information and communications
Information services
Public administration
Education and research
Medical service, health, social security and nursing care
Advertising services
Goods rental and leasing services
Other business services
Personal services
Others
Year 2006 prices, million yen
サプライチェーンの混乱による影響
（年間総生産高ベース）
Hokkaido
Tohoku
Kanto
Chubu
Kinki
Chugoku
Shikoku
Kyusyu
Okinawa
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
4. The Impact of Electric Power Supply Constraints
on the Japanese Economy
• Another serious effect of the 3/11 Earthquake: The impact of
electric power supply constraints due to the severe accident at the
Fukushima nuclear power plant.
• 21% of the electric power supply in Japan comes from nuclear
power.
• The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEE Japan) expects
that all nuclear power plants in Japan will stop operating by next
spring if currently operating nuclear power plants stop operating
for regular maintenance and stopped nuclear power plants are not
allowed to operate again.
• The IEE Japan expects that, if this scenario materializes, 7.8% of
the demand for electric power will not be met.
24
Japan's Electric Power Supply Capacity
(May, 2011)
250,000
601
thousand kw
200,000
48,960
New energy
sources
Nuclear power
150,000
100,000
135,075
Thermal power
plants
Water power
generation
50,000
43,852
0
Electric Power Supply
Source: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy.
25
4. The Impact of Electric Power Supply Constraints
on the Japanese Economy
• Following Hogan and Jorgenson (1991) and Manne and
Richels (1991), we estimate the following demand
equation using the IV method with industry dummies:
ln E j  const.  1t   2 ln( p E / p j )   3 Y j
Ej: Demand for electric power use by industry j
PE/Pj: Relative price, electric power/output price
Yj: Output (gross value added) of industy j
26
Estimation Results for Sectoral Demand Equations for Electric Power Use
Manufacturing
0.010***
[0.001]
-0.236***
[0.037]
Non-manufacturing
0.026***
[0.002]
-0.424***
[0.055]
Number of observations
Number of groups
2.034***
[0.271]
3228
95
0.703***
[0.025]
0.062
[0.366]
1768
52
0.527***
[0.032]
1.844***
[0.476]
1462
43
R-squared within model
0.547
0.631
0.618
R-squared overall model
0.318
0.327
0.532
R-squared between model
0.276
0.267
0.533
Trend
ln(Pe/Pj)
ln(VA)
All industries
0.018***
[0.001]
-0.267***
[0.030]
0.577***
[0.020]
ln(Y)
Cons
1) *, **, *** indicate 10%, 5%, and 1% significance respectively.
27
4. The Impact of Electric Power Supply
Constraints on the Japanese Economy
• Based on the estimation results, we examine the effects
of the electric power supply constraints on relative
prices and output (we assume that there are no
constraints on other inputs which can substitute for
electric power input).
• We examine two scenarios:
Case 1: Following IEE Japan, we assume that the total
demand for electric power use needs to be reduced by
7.8%.
Case 2:The total demand for electric power use in summer
(July to September) needs to be reduced by 7.8%. In
this case, the annual average demand needs to reduced
28
by 2%=7.8%*(1/4).
4. The Impact of Electric Power Supply
Constraints on the Japanese Economy
• With no increase in the price of electricity, output needs
to decrease by 16.6% in Case 1 and by 6.6% in Case 2
respectively.
• The output loss in the non-manufacturing sector will be
greater than that in the manufacturing sector, if we
assume that electricity use in the two sectors is reduced
in a parallel manner.
• If output is to grow by 1%, the price of electricity needs
to increase by 38% in Case 1 and by 16% in Case 2 to
achieve the necessary reduction in electric power use.
29
Output growth and increase in electricity
prices: 7.8% reduction in electric power use
Growth rate (%)
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5 0
-10
-15
-20
-25
DVA (All industries)
DY (Manufacturing)
DY (Non-manufacturing)
10
20
30
40
50
Increase in electricity prices (%)
30
Output growth and increase electricity prices:
2% reduction in the elcetric power use
35
30
Growth rate (%)
25
DVA (All industries)
DY (Manufacturing)
20
15
DY (Non-manufacturing)
10
5
0
-5 0
10
20
30
40
50
-10
-15
Increase in electricity prices (%)
31