State of Florida
Special Disability Trust Fund
Actuarial Review
as of June 30, 2015
Firm:
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
1336 SW 146th Ct.
Miami, Florida 33184
(305) 273-1589
Contact:
Aguedo (Bob) M. Ingco, FCAS, MAAA, CPCU, ARM
Date:
September 10, 2015
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
PAGE
Purpose ................................................................................................................................. 1
Terminology ......................................................................................................................... 2
Acknowledgment of Qualifications ..................................................................................... 2
Distribution and Use ............................................................................................................ 2
Conclusions .......................................................................................................................... 3-6
Reliance and Limitations...................................................................................................... 7
II. ACTUARIAL REPORT
PAGE
Background .......................................................................................................................... 8-9
Actuarial Approach .............................................................................................................. 10-12
Attached Exhibits ................................................................................................................. 13-15
III. ACTUARIAL EXHIBITS
PAGE
Summary Exhibits ................................................................................................................ Summary
Calculation of Undiscounted and Discounted Reserves – Paid Loss Dev Approach .......... I
Calculation of Ultimate Losses – Based on Counts and Average Amounts ........................ II
Calculation of Ultimate Average Paid Amount ................................................................... III
Calculation of Development Factors .................................................................................... IV
Calculation of Undiscounted and Discounted Reserves – Life Annuity Approach ............. V
Calculation of Paid Loss Cashflow ...................................................................................... VI
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
State of Florida
Florida Special Disability Trust Fund
Actuarial Review
June 30, 2015
Purpose
The State of Florida Department of Financial Services (“the Department”) has
engaged the services of AMI Risk Consultants, Inc. (“AMI”) to perform the
following for the Florida Special Disability Trust Fund (“the Fund”):
• Analyze the Fund’s exposure and loss history.
• Estimate the Fund’s outstanding claim liability at June 30, 2015, on an
undiscounted and discounted basis.
• Estimate the number of claims and total amount of expenditure from the
Fund (projected approvals) that will occur during prospective fiscal years
2015/2016, 2016/2017, 2017/2018, 2018/2019, and 2019/2020.
• Provide a summary of claim statistics as of June 30, 2015 for the following:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Change in the total number of notices of claim on file with the Fund
The number of newly filed notices of claim
Change in the number of proofs of claim processed by the Fund
Fee revenues refunded and revenues applied to pay down the
liability of the Fund
Average time required to reimburse accepted claims
Average administrative costs per claim.
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
Terminology
The term “reserves” or “loss reserves” is commonly used to mean
outstanding claim liability as of a given date, and may appear in this report
and/or in the attached exhibits with that meaning.
Acknowledgment
of Qualifications
Aguedo M. (Bob) Ingco is a consulting actuary and President of AMI Risk
Consultants, Inc. He is a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and a
Member of the American Academy of Actuaries. Mr. Ingco meets the
qualification standards of the American Academy of Actuaries to provide the
estimates in this report.
Distribution
and Use
This report is intended for use by the Fund’s management for financial
reporting, budgeting and other internal requirements. We disclaim the use of
this report for any other purpose.
We suggest that the user of this report review a complete copy as parts
considered out of context might be misleading.
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Page 2
Conclusions
Outstanding Claim Liability at June 30, 2015
We estimated the following outstanding claim liability at June 30, 2015. Also
shown below is the Fund’s estimated unfunded claim liability given its cash
balance at that date.
Estimated Outstanding Claim Liability
As of June 30, 2015
($000’s)
Undiscounted
Discounted
Total Outstanding
Claim Liability
$887,487
625,901
Unfunded Outstanding
Claim Liability
$796,767
535,181
Discounted estimates assume an average annual rate of return on invested
assets of 4%, as selected by the Fund. All estimates are shown at the
expected confidence level, i.e. there is no margin added to our central or
midpoint estimate to allow for potential adverse development.
Analysis of Change in Outstanding Liability
The components of the change in the undiscounted outstanding liability are
outlined below. Since June 30, 2014 the Fund issued claim payments of
$63.6 million and experienced favorable claim development (i.e. reduced
ultimate loss estimates) of $136.2 million.
Change in Undiscounted Outstanding Liability
($000’s)
Total
Outstanding Liability
Unfunded
Outstanding Liability
Prior estimate at 6/30/14
Claim payments during FY 2015
Change in estimated ultimate losses
Reduction in Fund’s cash balance
Current estimate at 6/30/15
$1,087,287
$973,286
($63,630)
($136,170)
N/A
($63,630)
($136,170)
$23,281
$887,487
$796,767
$ Change between 6/30/14 and 6/30/15
% Change between 6/30/14 and 6/30/15
($199,800)
-18.4%
(176,519)
-18.1%
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Conclusions
(continued)
Projected Cash Flow from Paid Losses (Approvals)
Our estimated cash flow from paid losses during the next five fiscal years is as
follows. These are estimates of the cash required for claim payments that will be
approved and issued during each of the next five years. The table shows a range
of indicated payments and our selected point estimate.
Projected Paid Loss Cash Flow
($000’s)
FY 2015/2016
FY 2016/2017
FY 2017/2018
FY 2018/2019
FY 2019/2020
Low
Estimate
$54,617
52,996
51,301
49,615
47,871
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High
Estimate
$60,024
58,319
56,406
54,489
52,511
Selected
Estimate
$56,810
55,155
53,375
51,598
49,761
Page 4
Conclusions
(continued)
Claim Statistics as of June 30, 2015
The table below summarizes FY 14-15 claim statistics historically tracked by the
Fund. The prior year statistics are shown for comparison.
During the past year the number of open claims dropped by 156 or roughly 3%,
and one additional notice was filed.
The average time to reimburse accepted claims decreased by 6.5 months, and the
average administrative cost per open claim was essentially unchanged.
Florida Special Disability Trust Fund
Summary of Historical Claims Records
Item
Number of Open Claims
Number of Notices Filed
Number of Newly Received Proofs of Claim Processed by the Fund
Fee Revenues Received from 7/1 to 6/30
Fee Revenues Refunded from 7/1 to 6/30
Fee Revenues Applied to Pay Down Liability in FY
Average Time Required to Reimburse Accepted Claims Paid (in months)
Average Administrative Cost per Claim **
FY 14-15
4,770
1
0
$0
$0
$0
8.10
$301.52
FY 13-14
4,926
0
0
$0
$0
$0
14.67
$301.73
**Average Administrative Cost per Claim = $1,438,228 / 4770.
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Conclusions
(continued)
Open Claim Population Statistics as of June 30, 2015
The following table presents summary statistics for the open claim population
at June 30, 2015. The claims are segmented based on the length of time since
the last payment by the Fund. The group definitions are:
• Active claims – at least one payment in the past five years
• Recently dormant claims – most recent payment between 6 and 10 years ago
• Long dormant claims – most recent payment more than 10 years ago
• Claims with no payment history.
Open Claim Statistics
($000’s)
Open Claim Count
Average Claimant Age
Average Claimant Life
Expectancy (in years)
Average Payment**
Active
Claims
Recently
Dormant
Claims
Long
Dormant
Claims
Claims
with no
Payment
History
Total
1,638
71
720
70
762
69
1,650
68
4,770
69
15
$25.203
16
$22.260
17
$25.960
17
N/A
17
$25.203
** Average Payments is the 5-year average for Active, and most recent annual payment for Dormant.
Only 34% of open claims appear to be “active”, and the average life expectancy
of those claimants is 15 years. It is certainly possible for some “dormant”
claims to resurface and submit payment requests. The average life expectancy
among “dormant” claimants is similar to the “active” group at 16-17 years.
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Reliance and
Limitations
In performing the analysis, we relied without audit or verification on the
following information furnished by the Fund. We reviewed the data received
for reasonableness and consistency with prior valuations.
•
Approvals, requests, and proofs, by accident year as of June 30, 2015.
•
Fund balance at June 30, 2015.
•
Fund’s administrative expenses for fiscal year 2015.
•
Prior actuarial report as of June 30, 2014.
Our contact at the Fund is Tom Krick, Manager of the Special Disability Trust
Fund Unit.
Assumptions for Missing Data Items
In identifying claims with gender “unknown”, we classified gender based on
the claimant name.
For claims with missing birthdates, we assumed the average claimant age in
that accident year. Date of birth was missing on 404 open claims, all of which
were “dormant”.
Paid Approval Development History
We relied on the paid approval development history as shown in Milliman’s
June 30, 2014 report, and augmented that history with incremental paid
approvals from FY 2015. Milliman’s report should be referenced for a
discussion of how that development triangle was initially constructed.
Risk of Adverse Deviation
In projecting loss emergence, we assumed that historical claim amount and
claim count development patterns are predictive of future patterns for the Fund.
Actual future development may deviate from historical patterns.
We cannot reasonably estimate the uncertainties that ultimate liabilities are
subject to. Therefore, while we believe our assumptions and methods are
reasonable, we cannot guarantee that actual results will not differ, perhaps
substantially, from our estimates.
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Page 7
II. ACTUARIAL REPORT
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Background
The Florida Special Disability Trust Fund (“the Fund”) was established to
encourage the employment of workers with pre-existing permanent physical
impairments. In particular, the Fund reimburses employers (or their carriers) for
the excess in workers compensation (“WC”) benefits they have provided to an
employee with a pre-existing impairment who is subsequently injured in a WC
accident. As part of the reimbursement process, the Fund determines the
eligibility of claims as well as audits and processes reimbursement requests.
Claims with an accident date on or after 1/1/98 are excluded from
reimbursement by the Fund. Claims with an accident date before 1998 are still
eligible to seek reimbursements. While most eligible claims have been
reported, it is still possible for new claims to be submitted, for closed claims to
be reopened, and for open but recently inactive claims to seek additional
reimbursements. Therefore, the Fund is responsible for the liabilities associated
with both reported and unreported eligible claims.
After a claim has been accepted, a request for reimbursement of additional
expenses may be submitted annually. The Fund generates revenues to pay
claims from two sources. The primary source is an assessment applied to the
net written premium of Florida WC insurance carriers. The basis for
determining the assessment rate is established by Florida statute. There is also a
minor amount of revenue generated by flat fees for new notices and proof of
claim submissions. This latter revenue has become negligible, as the cutoff
accident date for eligible claims is now over sixteen years old.
The statute governing the assessment rate was revised in 2014 and states the
following: “By July 1 of each year, the department shall calculate the
assessment rate, which shall be based upon the net premiums written by carriers
and self-insurers, the amount of premiums calculated by the department for
self-insured employers, the sum of the anticipated disbursements and expenses
of the Special Disability Trust Fund for the next calendar year, and the
expected fund balance for the next calendar year.” The revised statute
effectively eliminated the explicit assessment formula previously used (see
description below) and also changed the assessment rate cap to 2.50%. The
Fund collects assessments that are of a sufficient magnitude so that the Fund
balance has an expected surplus each year.
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Background
(continued)
Historically, the Fund established the assessment rate according to the
following statutory formula, which stated, “The annual assessment shall be
calculated to produce during the next calendar year an amount which, when
combined with that part of the balance anticipated to be in the fund on
December 31 of the current calendar year which is in excess of $100,000, is
equal to the average of:
a. The sum of disbursements from the fund during the immediate past 3
calendar years, and
b. Two times the disbursements of the most recent calendar year.”
Additionally, there was a cap on the assessment rate of 4.52%.
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Actuarial
Approach
Ultimate Losses By Accident Year – Multiple Methods Applied
To estimate ultimate losses by accident year, we applied the following
actuarial approaches.
•
•
•
•
Paid Loss Development Approach
Development Approach Based on Counts and Amounts of Requests
Development Approach Based on Counts and Amounts of Payments
Life Annuity Approach.
Paid Loss Development Approach (PLDA)
Under the PLDA, paid losses were multiplied by loss development factors to
estimate ultimate losses.
We separately analyzed two categories of claims: First and Final (“F & F”)
and Other than First and Final (“Other than F&F”).
F&F are claims are characterized as those where a single payment amount is
established at the time of approval of a claim and is expected to be the only
payment made. Payments on Other than F&F claims typically occur over a
longer time horizon than F&F claims.
Development Approach Based on Requests and Payments
This method is similar to PLDA. Counts of requests (or payments) by
accident year are developed to ultimate based on their past development
history. Similarly, average requested amounts (or average payments) by
accident year are developed to ultimate. Ultimate losses for an accident year
are then estimated as the product of ultimate counts and ultimate average
amounts.
Ultimate counts and average amounts of payments were estimated separately
for F&F and Other than F&F.
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Actuarial
Approach
(continued)
Life Annuity Approach
We calculated an explicit reserve on a claim by claim basis for each “active”
claim (as previously defined). The reserve was determined by:
• Claimant’s age and life expectancy at June 30, 2015
• Claimant’s average annual payment over the past five fiscal years.
• An assumed annual rate of inflation in claim costs of 5%.
For life expectancy, we used the 2011 Period Life Table from the Social
Security Administration. A copy of the table can be found on this site:
http://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
To this reserve we added the amount of “pipeline” payments (approved but
not yet paid) pending at June 30, 2015. Such payments continue to be a
liability of the Fund’s until actually issued.
Also added was a contingency reserve for “dormant” claims to allow for the
possibility that some small percentage may re-emerge at a later date. The
reserve was set at the sum of the most recent annual payment for each
“dormant” claim. No inflation adjustment was applied.
We did not include any provision for either reopened claims or pure
(unreported) IBNR. Historical reopened payments appear to be immaterial
and only one new notice was received in the past two years.
The calculated reserves were summarized by accident year and added to
cumulative payments to estimate ultimate losses.
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Actuarial
Approach
(continued)
Selected Ultimate Losses and Outstanding Claim Liabilities
Ultimate losses by accident year were selected from the results of the
described approaches. Cumulative paid losses were subtracted from the
selected ultimate to estimate total undiscounted loss reserves.
In selecting ultimate losses equal weight was given to each of the methods
described, except for the method based on projected ultimate counts and
average amounts of requests. No weight was given to this method because
the indications by accident year were inconsistent with the remaining three
methods.
Paid Loss Cashflow Projections
We applied the following methods to estimate the cashflow from paid losses
during the next five fiscal periods:
• Paid loss development
• Expected percent of ultimate losses to be paid each year
• Expected percent of loss reserves to be paid each year.
Cashflow was estimated separately for F&F and Other than F&F claims.
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Attached
Exhibits
We prepared the attached Summary Exhibit to summarize the results of our
calculations. There are eight (8) pages to the Summary Exhibit. Each page
relates to the following:
• Page 1 shows the summary of loss reserves and unfunded liability at June
30, 2015 on both an undiscounted and discounted basis.
• Page 2 shows the calculation of undiscounted and discounted reserves by
accident year, and by type of claim – first and final and other than first
and final.
• Page 3 shows the calculation of selected ultimate losses based on the
calculated ultimates of methods previously described.
• Page 4 shows the summary of paid cash flows during the next five fiscal
years
• Page 5 displays the historical claim statistics as of June 30, 2015.
• Page 6 reconciles the undiscounted reserves as of June 30, 2015 with the
undiscounted reserves as of June 30, 2014.
• Page 7 shows the comparison of ultimate losses between June 30, 2015
and June 30, 2014 by accident year.
• Page 8 shows the comparison of paid losses between June 30, 2015 and
June 30, 2014 by accident year.
We prepared Exhibit I to apply the PLDA previously described. There are
three (3) pages to this exhibit:
•
Page 1 shows a summary of indicated reserves on an undiscounted and
discounted basis, and by type of claim category (first and final and other
than first and final).
•
Page 2 shows calculation of ultimate losses using the PLDA, for first and
final claims.
•
Page 3 shows calculation of ultimate losses using the PLDA, for other
than first and final claims.
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Attached
Exhibits
(continued)
We prepared Exhibit II to calculate the ultimates based on requested
counts and average amounts. There are two (2) pages to this exhibit:
•
Page 1 shows the calculation of ultimate request count.
•
Page 2 shows the calculation of ultimate average requested amount.
We prepared Exhibit III to calculate the ultimates based on paid counts
and average payments. There are four (4) pages to this exhibit:
•
Pages 1 and 2 show the calculation of ultimate average paid
amount for F&F claims, and Other than F&F claims, respectively.
•
Pages 3A and 3B show the calculation of ultimate payment count
for F&F claims, and Other than F&F claims, respectively.
•
Page 4 shows the calculation of ultimate notices.
We prepared Exhibit IV to show the calculation of loss development
factors:
Pages 1A-1E – Paid losses/approvals of Other than F&F claims
Pages 2A-2E - Paid losses/approvals of F&F claims
Pages 3A-3C – Count of notices
Pages 4A-4C – Count of requests
Pages 5A-5C – Requested amount
Pages 6A-6C – Average requested amount
Pages 7A-7C – Count of Payments for Other than F&F claims
Pages 8A-8C – Count of Payments for F&F claims
Pages 9A-9C – Average Amount Paid for Other than F&F claims
Pages 10A-10C – Average Amount Paid for F&F claims
We prepared Exhibit V to show the results of the reserve calculation
using the life annuity method.
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Attached
Exhibits
(continued)
Paid Loss Cashflow
Exhibit VI shows the calculation of paid loss cashflow during the next five fiscal
years, separately for F&F and Other than F&F.
Calculation of Discount Factors
We prepared Appendix A to show the calculation of discount factors.
There are two pages to this Appendix:
• Page 1 –First and Final Claims
• Page 2 – Other than First and Final Claims
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III. ACTUARIAL EXHIBITS
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SUMMARY EXHIBIT
PAGE 1 OF 8
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
RESERVE SUMMARY
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMOUNTS IN '000s)
SUMMARY OF RESERVES
(1)
(1) TOTAL UNDISCOUNTED RESERVES
$887,487
(2) TOTAL DISCOUNTED RESERVES - 4% DISCOUNT
625,901
(3) CASH BALANCE
90,720
(4) UNFUNDED LIABILITY - UNDISCOUNTED
796,767
(5) UNFUNDED LIABILITY - DISCOUNTED AT 4%
535,181
Notes:
(1) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (3).
(2) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (5).
(3)- Per FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND.
(4) = (1) - (3); (5) = (2) - (3).
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SUMMARY EXHIBIT
PAGE 2 OF 8
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
UNDISCOUNTED AND DISCOUNTED RESERVES
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMOUNTS IN '000s)
ACCIDENT
YEAR*
SELECTED
ULTIMATE
LOSSES
(1)
PAYMENTS
UNDISCOUNTED RESERVE
FIRST AND
OTHER THAN
FINAL
FIRST AND FINAL
(6)
(7)
(2)
UNDISCOUNTED
RESERVE
(3)
DISCOUNT
FACTOR
(4)
DISCOUNTED
RESERVE
(5)
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.963
0.956
0.942
0.926
0.911
0.895
0.883
0.870
0.857
0.845
0.835
0.824
0.812
0.799
0.789
0.778
0.767
0.757
0.747
0.738
0.728
0.720
0.711
0.702
0.693
0.684
0.677
0.669
0.661
0.653
0.646
0.639
$0
0
0
0
0
0
12
0
3
84
26
84
124
698
537
1,621
1,780
1,529
2,405
2,308
5,133
9,285
10,863
12,726
15,493
30,281
37,945
43,465
46,113
60,447
83,710
64,763
43,484
43,871
33,554
20,150
22,801
20,087
10,516
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
40
80
52
$0
0
0
0
0
0
12
0
3
90
29
92
139
790
617
1,893
2,106
1,831
2,919
2,844
6,424
11,769
13,963
16,591
20,456
40,538
51,444
59,679
64,043
85,027
119,250
93,410
63,564
64,850
50,157
30,494
34,869
31,004
16,415
$625,901
$173
$887,315
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
$13
39
105
88
0
21
323
72
356
1,270
1,538
2,878
3,163
18,001
7,397
18,020
26,783
19,788
29,000
28,789
60,175
91,237
112,230
121,453
137,441
243,114
318,204
328,203
372,985
476,193
509,010
407,907
338,700
320,879
224,803
137,648
137,412
127,979
61,370
$13
39
105
88
0
21
311
71
352
1,180
1,509
2,786
3,024
17,211
6,780
16,127
24,677
17,956
26,081
25,944
53,751
79,467
98,267
104,861
116,984
202,576
266,761
268,524
308,941
391,166
389,760
314,497
275,136
256,030
174,646
107,155
102,503
96,896
44,902
$0
0
0
0
0
0
12
0
3
90
29
92
139
790
617
1,893
2,106
1,831
2,919
2,844
6,424
11,769
13,963
16,591
20,456
40,538
51,444
59,679
64,043
85,027
119,250
93,410
63,564
64,850
50,157
30,494
34,910
31,084
16,468
TOTAL
$4,684,587
$3,797,100
$887,487
Notes:
(1) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 3, Column (5).
(2) - Per FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
(3) = (1) - (2).
(4) - Exhibit I, Page 1, Col. (6) / (Col. (5).
(5) = (3) x (4).
(6) & (7) - Per Column (3), allocated based on PLDA indicated reserves for FF and Other than FF.
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
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SUMMARY EXHIBIT
PAGE 3 OF 8
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
ULTIMATE LOSSES
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMOUNTS IN '000s)
ALL APPROACHES COMBINED
ESTIMATED ULTIMATE LOSSES BY METHOD
COUNTS AND AMOUNTS
ACCIDENT
YEAR*
PLDA
REQUESTS
PAYMENTS
LIFE ANNUITY
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
SELECTED
ULTIMATE
LOSSES
(5)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
13
39
105
88
0
21
311
72
354
1,189
1,535
2,851
3,116
17,856
7,094
17,023
26,283
19,326
28,398
28,577
59,588
89,463
111,612
121,222
136,720
238,540
315,422
321,598
373,951
478,962
482,426
393,696
338,874
315,096
216,523
136,506
133,786
127,299
61,072
5
63
50
58
0
1
132
21
164
670
323
1,332
1,364
7,089
3,596
7,387
12,685
8,655
15,592
12,608
30,785
52,668
60,236
71,979
94,504
185,246
240,265
282,613
355,305
500,888
616,486
505,070
450,160
425,602
294,021
183,162
177,720
170,357
80,231
13
39
105
88
0
21
313
72
358
1,196
1,559
2,883
3,242
18,546
7,358
17,871
27,470
20,067
29,490
29,642
61,585
92,170
114,772
124,109
139,225
241,692
317,921
322,319
373,341
476,893
478,288
388,854
333,928
310,141
212,542
133,421
130,344
123,800
59,281
13
39
105
88
0
21
346
71
355
1,424
1,519
2,901
3,132
17,602
7,739
19,165
26,596
19,971
29,113
28,147
59,353
92,077
110,307
119,028
136,377
249,109
321,270
340,691
371,662
472,724
566,317
441,171
343,298
337,401
245,344
143,018
148,107
132,839
63,757
13
39
105
88
0
21
323
72
356
1,270
1,538
2,878
3,163
18,001
7,397
18,020
26,783
19,788
29,000
28,789
60,175
91,237
112,230
121,453
137,441
243,114
318,204
328,203
372,985
476,193
509,010
407,907
338,700
320,879
224,803
137,648
137,412
127,979
61,370
TOTAL
$4,606,604
$4,849,092
$4,594,960
$4,852,197
$4,684,587
Notes:
(1) - Ultimate incurred losses calculated from Exhibit I, Pages 2 & 3, Column (3).
(2) - Ultimate incurred losses calculated from Summary Exhibit of Exhibits II and III, Column (5).
(3) - Ultimate incurred losses calculated from Summary Exhibit of Exhibits II and III, Column (8).
(4) - Sum of amounts from Exhibit V, Column (10), and payments for FF and other than FF.
(5) - Selected from Columns (1) to (4).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\Summary_2015\SELECTED
8/25/2015 12:34 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
SUMMARY EXHIBIT
PAGE 4 OF 8
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
PROJECTED PAID LOSS CASHFLOW
FOR PROSPECTIVE FISCAL YEARS
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMOUNTS IN '000s)
FISCAL
YEAR
MINIMUM
PAID LOSS CASHFLOW
ESTIMATE
(1)
MAXIMUM
PAID LOSS CASHFLOW
ESTIMATE
(2)
SELECTED
PAID LOSS CASHFLOW
ESTIMATE
(3)
2015/2016
2016/2017
2017/2018
2018/2019
2019/2020
$54,617
52,996
51,301
49,615
47,871
$60,024
58,319
56,406
54,489
52,511
$56,810
55,155
53,375
51,598
49,761
Notes:
(1) & (2) - Mimimum and maximum estimates fom Exhibit VI, Pages 1A, 2A, 3A, 4A and 5A.
(3) - Per Exhibit VI, Pages 1A, 2A, 3A, 4A, and 5A, Column (3).
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\Summary_2015\CASHFLOW
8/24/2015 12:31 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
SUMMARY EXHIBIT
PAGE 5 OF 8
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
SUMMARY OF HISTORICAL CLAIMS RECORDS
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMOUNTS IN '000s)
1. Number of Open Claims
4,770
2. Number of Notices Filed
1
3. Number of Newly Received
Proofs of Claim Processed by the Fund
0
4. Fees Revenues Received from July 1 to June 30
$0
5. Fees Revenues Refunded from July 1 to June 30
$0
6. Fees Revenues Applied to Pay Down Liability in FY
$0
7. Average Time Required to Reimbuse Accepted Claims Paid (in Months)
8. Average Administrative Cost per Claim
Notes:
(1)-(7) - Per FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND.
(8) - Administrative cost/number of open claims.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\Summary_2015\Claim Statistics
8/31/2015 10:36 AM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
8.10
$301.52
SUMMARY EXHIBIT
PAGE 6 OF 8
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
ANALYSIS OF UNDISCOUNTED RESERVE CHANGE
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMOUNTS IN '000s)
1. Estimated undiscounted reserves at 6/30/2014
2. Loss payments during 2015
$1,087,287
($63,630)
3. Change in estimated ultimate losses due to re-evaluation at 6/30/15
4. Estimated undiscounted reserves at 6/30/2015
Notes:
(1) - Per 2014 Milliman Actuarial Report.
(2) - Total from Summary Exhibit, Page 8, Column (3).
(2) - Total from Summary Exhibit, Page 7, Column (3).
(4) = Sum of (1) through (3).
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\Summary_2015\RECON
8/24/2015 12:31 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
($136,170)
$887,487
SUMMARY EXHIBIT
PAGE 7 OF 8
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
COMPARISON OF ESTIMATED ULTIMATE LOSSES AND ALAE
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMOUNTS IN '000s)
ESTIMATED ULTIMATE LOSSES
@6/30/2014
(1)
@6/30/2015
(2)
INCREASE
OR
DECREASE
(3)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
$13
51
196
152
0
21
311
72
348
1,448
1,527
3,139
3,073
17,615
7,414
18,295
25,518
18,699
28,350
27,356
57,778
86,417
107,152
117,704
139,906
257,245
331,144
350,870
398,959
516,747
507,058
416,714
348,078
336,749
223,273
138,877
139,862
129,164
63,465
$13
39
105
88
0
21
323
72
356
1,270
1,538
2,878
3,163
18,001
7,397
18,020
26,783
19,788
29,000
28,789
60,175
91,237
112,230
121,453
137,441
243,114
318,204
328,203
372,985
476,193
509,010
407,907
338,700
320,879
224,803
137,648
137,412
127,979
61,370
0
(12)
(91)
(64)
0
(0)
13
0
8
(178)
11
(261)
90
387
(17)
(276)
1,265
1,089
650
1,433
2,397
4,819
5,079
3,749
(2,465)
(14,131)
(12,939)
(22,667)
(25,974)
(40,553)
1,953
(8,807)
(9,378)
(15,869)
1,531
(1,228)
(2,450)
(1,184)
(2,095)
TOTAL
$4,820,757
$4,684,587
($136,170)
ACCIDENT
YEAR*
Notes:
(1) - Per 2014 Milliman Actuarial Report.
(2) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (1).
(3) = (2) - (1).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\Summary_2015\ULT_COMPARE
8/24/2015 12:31 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
SUMMARY EXHIBIT
PAGE 8 OF 8
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
COMPARISON OF PAID LOSSES
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMOUNTS IN '000s)
PAID LOSSES
@6/30/2014
(1)
@6/30/2015
(2)
INCREASE
OR
DECREASE
(3)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
13
39
105
88
0
21
310
71
346
1,172
1,509
2,775
3,014
17,202
6,405
16,064
24,513
17,784
25,762
25,707
53,377
77,943
97,334
103,252
115,245
199,483
262,776
263,542
303,699
385,134
382,088
307,594
271,457
250,815
171,026
105,371
100,808
95,649
43,977
13
39
105
88
0
21
311
71
352
1,180
1,509
2,786
3,024
17,211
6,780
16,127
24,677
17,956
26,081
25,944
53,751
79,467
98,267
104,861
116,984
202,576
266,761
268,524
308,941
391,166
389,760
314,497
275,136
256,030
174,646
107,155
102,503
96,896
44,902
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
7
8
0
11
10
9
375
63
164
172
318
238
374
1,524
933
1,609
1,739
3,093
3,985
4,982
5,242
6,033
7,672
6,902
3,679
5,214
3,620
1,784
1,695
1,247
925
TOTAL
$3,733,470
$3,797,100
$63,630
ACCIDENT
YEAR*
Notes:
(2) - Total from Summary Exhibit, Page 8, Column (3).
(2) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (2).
(3) = (2) - (1).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\Summary_2015\PAID_COMPARE
8/24/2015 12:31 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT I
PAGE 1 OF 3
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
SUMMARY OF UNDISCOUNTED AND DISCOUNTED RESERVES - PAID LOSS DEVELOPMENT APPROACH
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMOUNTS IN '000s)
PAID LOSS DEVELOPMENT INDICATED RESERVES
FF
FF
ACCIDENT
UNDISCOUNTED
DISCOUNTED
YEAR*
RESERVE
RESERVE
(1)
(2)
OTHER THAN FF
UNDISCOUNTED
RESERVE
(3)
OTHER THAN FF
DISCOUNTED
RESERVE
(4)
TOTAL
UNDISCOUNTED
RESERVE
(5)
TOTAL
DISCOUNTED
RESERVE
(6)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
36
78
51
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
35
74
48
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
9
26
64
92
645
313
897
1,606
1,369
2,317
2,632
5,837
9,996
13,345
16,360
19,736
35,964
48,661
53,074
65,010
87,796
92,666
79,200
63,738
59,067
41,877
29,351
31,247
30,325
16,118
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
8
24
59
82
569
273
768
1,358
1,143
1,908
2,136
4,664
7,886
10,382
12,549
14,947
26,865
35,893
38,655
46,809
62,415
65,048
54,910
43,603
39,959
28,015
19,395
20,398
19,574
10,278
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
9
26
64
92
645
313
897
1,606
1,369
2,317
2,632
5,837
9,996
13,345
16,360
19,736
35,964
48,661
53,074
65,010
87,796
92,666
79,200
63,738
59,067
41,877
29,351
31,283
30,404
16,170
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
8
24
59
82
569
273
768
1,358
1,143
1,908
2,136
4,664
7,886
10,382
12,549
14,947
26,865
35,893
38,655
46,809
62,415
65,048
54,910
43,603
39,959
28,015
19,395
20,432
19,648
10,326
TOTAL
$166
$156
$809,339
$570,574
$809,504
$570,730
Notes:
(1) - Per Exhibit I, Page 2, Column (4).
(2) - Per Exhibit I, Page 2, Column (6).
(3) - Per Exhibit I, Page 3, Column (4).
(4) - Per Exhibit I, Page 3, Column (6).
(5) = (1) + (3).
(6) = (2) + (4).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\SUMMARY_LDA
8/24/2015 12:45 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT I
PAGE 2 OF 3
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
CALCULATION OF ULTIMATE LOSSES AND ALAE - LOSS DEVELOPMENT APPROACH
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
($AMOUNTS IN '000s)
PAID LOSS DEVELOPMENT APPROACH - FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
PAID
LOSS
ULTIMATE
ACCIDENT
LOSSES
DEVLPMT
INCURRED
YEAR*
at 6/30/2015
FACTORS
LOSSES
(1)
(2)
(3)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
43,991
57,828
82,095
90,538
79,503
101,195
107,085
77,598
44,587
40,987
41,734
17,871
TOTAL
$864,529
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.001
1.002
1.003
UNIDSCOUNTED
LOSS
RESERVES
(4)
DISCOUNT
FACTOR
(5)
DISCOUNTED
LOSS
RESERVES
(6)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
43,991
57,828
82,095
90,538
79,503
101,195
107,085
77,598
44,587
41,023
41,812
17,922
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
36
78
51
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.981
0.963
0.945
0.927
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
35
74
48
$864,694
$166
Notes:
(1)- Per FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
(2) - Per Fund's historical loss development factors
(3) = (1) x (2).
(4) = (3) - (1).
(5) - Per Appendix A, Page 1, Column (7).
(6) = (4) x (5).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\LDA_FF
8/25/2015 2:38 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
$156
EXHIBIT I
PAGE 3 OF 3
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
CALCULATION OF ULTIMATE LOSSES AND ALAE - LOSS DEVELOPMENT APPROACH
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
($AMOUNTS IN '000s)
PAID LOSS DEVELOPMENT APPROACH - OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
PAID
LOSS
ULTIMATE
UNIDSCOUNTED
ACCIDENT
LOSSES
DEVLPMT
INCURRED
LOSS
YEAR*
at 6/30/2015
FACTORS
LOSSES
RESERVES
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
$13
39
105
88
0
21
311
71
352
837
1,509
2,786
3,024
17,204
6,780
16,123
24,674
17,917
26,056
25,809
50,661
77,761
92,400
101,971
111,361
183,435
226,119
224,532
251,113
309,071
299,222
234,993
173,941
148,945
97,048
62,568
61,516
55,162
27,031
TOTAL
$2,932,571
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.002
1.005
1.011
1.017
1.023
1.030
1.037
1.046
1.056
1.065
1.076
1.089
1.102
1.115
1.129
1.144
1.160
1.177
1.196
1.215
1.236
1.259
1.284
1.310
1.337
1.366
1.397
1.432
1.469
1.508
1.550
1.596
13
39
105
88
0
21
311
72
354
846
1,535
2,851
3,116
17,849
7,094
17,019
26,280
19,287
28,373
28,441
56,498
87,756
105,745
118,331
131,097
219,398
274,781
277,607
316,123
396,867
391,888
314,193
237,679
208,011
138,926
91,918
92,763
85,487
43,150
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
9
26
64
92
645
313
897
1,606
1,369
2,317
2,632
5,837
9,996
13,345
16,360
19,736
35,964
48,661
53,074
65,010
87,796
92,666
79,200
63,738
59,067
41,877
29,351
31,247
30,325
16,118
$3,741,910
$809,339
Notes:
(1)- Per FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND.
(2) - Per Fund's historical loss development factors
(3) = (1) x (2).
(4) = (3) - (1).
(5) - Per Appendix A, Page 2, Column (7).
(6) = (4) x (5).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\LDA_Other than FF
8/25/2015 2:39 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
DISCOUNT
FACTOR
(5)
DISCOUNTED
LOSS
RESERVES
(6)
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.981
0.963
0.956
0.942
0.926
0.911
0.895
0.883
0.870
0.857
0.845
0.835
0.824
0.812
0.799
0.789
0.778
0.767
0.757
0.747
0.738
0.728
0.720
0.711
0.702
0.693
0.684
0.677
0.669
0.661
0.653
0.645
0.638
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
8
24
59
82
569
273
768
1,358
1,143
1,908
2,136
4,664
7,886
10,382
12,549
14,947
26,865
35,893
38,655
46,809
62,415
65,048
54,910
43,603
39,959
28,015
19,395
20,398
19,574
10,278
$570,574
SUMMARY
EXHIBITS II and III
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
SUMMARY OF ULTIMATES - BASED ON COUNTS AND AVERAGE AMOUNTS
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMOUNTS IN '000s)
INDICATED ULTIMATES BASED ON COUNTS AND AVERAGE AMOUNTS
ULTIIMATE
ULTIMATE
ULTIMATE
NUMBER OF
AVERAGE
TOTAL
REQUESTS
REQUEST
REQUESTED AMOUNT
(1)
(2)
(3)
ACCIDENT
YEAR*
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
3
5
20
29
0
2
34
8
35
87
74
256
243
362
330
570
715
729
859
814
1,389
1,913
2,710
2,725
3,782
4,558
5,798
6,989
9,327
11,897
13,007
12,504
10,528
9,348
7,944
6,967
6,925
6,468
2,901
TOTAL
132,855
$2
13
3
2
0
0
4
3
5
8
4
5
6
20
11
13
18
12
18
15
22
28
22
26
25
41
41
40
38
42
44
40
44
47
40
29
28
29
31
$5
63
50
58
0
1
132
21
164
670
323
1,332
1,364
7,089
3,596
7,387
12,685
8,655
15,592
12,608
30,785
52,668
60,236
71,979
94,504
185,246
240,265
282,613
355,305
500,888
571,021
498,841
462,579
443,878
318,196
203,125
194,673
189,640
90,109
$4,918,347
CUMULATIVE
RATIO OF AMTS:
PAYMENTS TO REQUESTS
(4)
ULTIMATE
TOTAL
LOSS
(5)
ULTIMATE
NUMBER OF
PAYMENTS
(6)
ULTIMATE
AVERAGE
PAYMENT
(7)
ULTIMATE
TOTAL
LOSS
(8)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.08
1.01
0.97
0.96
0.92
0.90
0.91
0.90
0.89
5
63
50
58
0
1
132
21
164
670
323
1,332
1,364
7,089
3,596
7,387
12,685
8,655
15,592
12,608
30,785
52,668
60,236
71,979
94,504
185,246
240,265
282,613
355,305
500,888
616,486
505,070
450,160
425,602
294,021
183,162
177,720
170,357
80,231
3
5
20
29
0
2
34
8
35
87
74
256
245
369
336
585
733
753
888
847
1,454
2,010
2,865
2,896
4,032
4,863
6,178
7,438
9,860
12,497
13,547
12,932
10,440
8,851
7,427
6,726
6,792
6,360
2,910
4
8
5
3
0
10
9
9
10
14
21
11
13
50
22
31
37
27
33
35
42
46
40
43
35
50
51
43
38
38
35
30
32
35
29
20
19
19
20
$13
39
105
88
0
21
313
72
358
1,196
1,559
2,883
3,242
18,546
7,358
17,871
27,470
20,067
29,490
29,642
61,585
92,170
114,772
124,109
139,225
241,692
317,921
322,319
373,341
476,893
478,288
388,854
333,928
310,141
212,542
133,421
130,344
123,800
59,281
4,849,092
135,387
Notes:
(1) - Per Exhibit II, Page 1, Column (3).
(2) - Per Exhibit II, Page 2, Column (3).
(3) = (1) x (2); (5) = (3) x (4).
(4) - For accident years 1992 and later, the ratio of paid to amout requested is calculated.
For accident years 1991 and prior, we are assuming a ratio of 1.00 since historical is greater than 1.00.
(6) - Per Exhibit III, sum of amounts from Pages 3A and 3B, Column (3).
(7) - Sum of (Exhibit III, Page 1, Column (3) x Page 3A, Column (3)) and (Exhibit III, Page 2, Column (3) x Page 3B, Column (3)) divided by
the ultimate counts from Exhibit III, Pages 3A and 3B, Col (3).
(8) - (6) x (7).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\ULTIMATE_COUNT_AMT
8/24/2015 12:46 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
$4,594,960
EXHIBIT II
PAGE 1 OF 2
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
CALCULATION OF ULTIMATE REQUEST COUNT
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
COUNT OF REQUESTS
LOSS DEVELOPMENT APPROACH - COUNT OF REQUESTS
ACCIDENT
YEAR*
CUMULATIVE
NUMBER OF REQUESTS
at 6/30/2015
(1)
DEVELOPMENT
FACTORS
(2)
ULTIMATE
REQUEST
COUNT
(3)
ESTIMATED
FUTURE
REQUESTS
(4)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
3
5
20
29
0
2
34
8
34
83
69
237
221
324
290
491
604
604
695
645
1,076
1,449
2,014
1,988
2,711
3,206
4,010
4,743
6,214
7,780
8,352
7,910
6,553
5,726
4,799
4,149
4,065
3,739
1,652
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.026
1.033
1.051
1.075
1.080
1.102
1.116
1.137
1.162
1.183
1.206
1.236
1.261
1.291
1.320
1.346
1.371
1.395
1.422
1.446
1.473
1.501
1.529
1.557
1.581
1.607
1.633
1.655
1.679
1.704
1.730
1.756
3
5
20
29
0
2
34
8
35
87
74
256
243
362
330
570
715
729
859
814
1,389
1,913
2,710
2,725
3,782
4,558
5,798
6,989
9,327
11,897
13,007
12,504
10,528
9,348
7,944
6,967
6,925
6,468
2,901
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
4
5
19
22
38
40
79
111
125
164
169
313
464
696
737
1,071
1,352
1,788
2,246
3,113
4,117
4,655
4,594
3,975
3,622
3,145
2,818
2,860
2,729
1,249
TOTAL
86,534
132,855
46,321
Notes:
(1)- Per FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND.
(2) - Per Fund's historical count development factors
(3) = (1) x (2).
(4) = (3) - (1).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\LDA_COUNT_REQUEST
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AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT II
PAGE 2 OF 2
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
CALCULATION OF ULTIMATE AVERAGE REQUESTED AMOUNT- LOSS DEVELOPMENT APPROACH
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMOUNTS IN '000s)
LOSS DEVELOPMENT APPROACH - AVERAGE REQUESTED AMOUNT
AVERAGE
LOSS
ACCIDENT
REQUESTED AMOUNT
DEVLPMT
YEAR*
at 6/30/2015
FACTORS
(1)
(2)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
$2
13
3
2
0
0
4
3
5
8
4
5
6
20
11
13
18
12
18
16
22
28
22
27
25
40
41
40
38
41
43
39
43
47
39
29
28
29
31
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.998
0.993
0.981
0.978
0.976
0.977
0.986
0.978
0.971
0.990
0.989
0.997
0.998
0.999
1.000
0.997
0.993
0.998
1.007
1.009
1.010
1.011
1.015
1.016
1.016
1.018
1.018
1.017
1.018
1.018
1.016
1.018
Notes:
(1)- Per FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND.Requested Amount/Number of Requests
(2)- Per Fund's historical loss development factors
(3) = (1) x (2).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\LDA_AVE REQUEST AMOUNT
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AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
ULTIMATE
AVERAGE REQUESTED
AMOUNT
(3)
2
13
3
2
0
0
4
3
5
8
4
5
6
20
11
13
18
12
18
15
22
28
22
26
25
41
41
40
38
42
44
40
44
47
40
29
28
29
31
EXHIBIT III
PAGE 1 OF 4
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
CALCULATION OF ULTIMATE AVERAGE PAID AMOUNT- LOSS DEVELOPMENT APPROACH
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
($AMOUNTS IN '000s)
LOSS DEVELOPMENT APPROACH - AVERAGE PAID AMOUNT FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
AVERAGE
LOSS
ACCIDENT
PAID AMOUNT
DEVLPMT
YEAR*
at 6/30/2015
FACTORS
(1)
(2)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
27
309
213
255
111
128
281
252
175
117
100
82
64
62
54
43
33
33
35
36
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
1.000
1.000
0.999
ULTIMATE
AVERAGE PAID
AMOUNT
(3)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
27
309
213
255
111
128
281
252
175
117
100
82
64
62
54
43
33
33
35
36
Notes:
(1)- Per FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND.FF Paid Amount/Payment Count
(2)- Per Fund's historical loss development factors
(3) = (1) x (2).
*Accident years are 12-month periods endithe incurred losses in (1). For the most recent year, we used the Loss Rate Approach.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\LDA_AVE PAID AMT_FF
8/25/2015 2:42 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT III
PAGE 2 OF 4
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
CALCULATION OF ULTIMATE AVERAGE PAID AMOUNT- LOSS DEVELOPMENT APPROACH
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
($AMOUNTS IN '000s)
LOSS DEVELOPMENT APPROACH - AVERAGE PAID AMOUNT OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
AVERAGE
LOSS
ULTIMATE
ACCIDENT
PAID AMOUNT
DEVLPMT
AVERAGE PAID
YEAR*
at 6/30/2015
FACTORS
AMOUNT
(1)
(2)
(3)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
$4
8
5
3
0
10
9
9
10
10
22
12
14
53
23
33
41
30
38
40
48
54
46
52
42
58
59
50
44
44
41
35
35
40
32
22
22
22
23
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.984
0.984
0.972
0.969
0.958
0.969
0.946
0.937
0.931
0.917
0.896
0.884
0.869
0.852
0.837
0.826
0.813
0.802
0.794
0.784
0.775
0.767
0.761
0.755
0.750
0.747
0.744
0.742
0.739
0.737
0.733
0.734
4
8
5
3
0
10
9
9
10
10
21
11
13
50
22
31
38
27
33
35
41
45
38
42
34
46
46
39
34
34
31
26
26
30
24
17
16
16
17
Notes:
(1)- Per FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND. Other than FF Paid Amount/Payment Count
(2)- Per Fund's historical loss development factors
(3) = (1) x (2).
*Accident years are 12-month periods end the incurred losses in (1). For the most recent year, we used the Loss Rate Approach.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\LDA_AVE PAID AMT_OTHER THAN FF
8/25/2015 2:43 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT III
PAGE 3A OF 4
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
CALCULATION OF ULTIMATE PAYMENT COUNT
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
LOSS DEVELOPMENT APPROACH - COUNT OF PAYMENTS FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
YEAR*
CUMULATIVE
NUMBER OF PAID
at 6/30/2015
(1)
DEVELOPMENT
FACTORS
(2)
ULTIMATE
PAYMENT
COUNT
(3)
ESTIMATED
FUTURE
PAID COUNT
(4)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
5
10
8
23
26
44
68
161
251
496
823
1,099
1,250
1,644
1,975
1,793
1,349
1,258
1,194
495
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.001
1.001
1.001
1.002
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
5
10
8
23
26
44
68
161
251
496
823
1,099
1,250
1,644
1,975
1,793
1,350
1,259
1,196
496
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
1
TOTAL
13,978
13,982
4
Notes:
(1)- Per FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND.
(2)- Per Fund's historical development factors
(3) = (1) x (2).
(4) = (3) - (1).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\LDA_COUNT_PAIDFF
8/25/2015 2:44 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT III
PAGE 3B OF 4
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
CALCULATION OF ULTIMATE PAYMENT COUNT
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
LOSS DEVELOPMENT APPROACH - COUNT OF PAYMENTS OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
YEAR*
CUMULATIVE
NUMBER OF PAID
at 6/30/2015
(1)
DEVELOPMENT
FACTORS
(2)
ULTIMATE
PAYMENT
COUNT
(3)
ESTIMATED
FUTURE
PAID COUNT
(4)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
3
5
20
29
0
2
34
8
34
82
69
237
221
323
290
490
603
603
694
640
1,066
1,441
1,991
1,962
2,667
3,138
3,849
4,492
5,718
6,958
7,253
6,660
4,909
3,751
3,006
2,800
2,807
2,545
1,157
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.006
1.032
1.032
1.049
1.066
1.080
1.106
1.139
1.158
1.191
1.214
1.248
1.279
1.316
1.355
1.389
1.427
1.463
1.495
1.528
1.563
1.600
1.638
1.678
1.716
1.754
1.792
1.833
1.874
1.920
1.971
2.029
2.087
3
5
20
29
0
2
34
8
35
86
74
256
245
368
336
584
732
752
887
842
1,444
2,002
2,842
2,870
3,988
4,795
6,017
7,187
9,364
11,674
12,448
11,682
8,796
6,876
5,634
5,376
5,533
5,164
2,415
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
4
5
19
24
45
46
94
129
149
193
202
378
561
851
908
1,321
1,657
2,168
2,695
3,646
4,716
5,195
5,022
3,887
3,125
2,628
2,576
2,726
2,619
1,258
TOTAL
72,557
121,405
48,848
Notes:
(1)- Per FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND.
(2)- Per Fund's historical development factors
(3) = (1) x (2).
(4) = (3) - (1).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\LDA_COUNT_PAID_OTHERTHANFF
8/25/2015 2:46 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT III
PAGE 4 OF 4
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
CALCULATION OF ULTIMATE NOTICE COUNT
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
LOSS DEVELOPMENT APPROACH - COUNT OF NOTICES
ACCIDENT
YEAR*
CLAIMS
REPORTED
at 6/30/2015
(1)
DEVELOPMENT
FACTORS
(2)
ULTIMATE
CLAIM
COUNT
(3)
UNREPORTED
NOTICE COUNT
at 6/30/2015
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1
0
2
1
1
6
7
7
8
14
19
23
22
22
37
53
76
83
118
178
219
304
340
394
401
393
317
275
283
292
337
370
167
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.001
1.001
1.001
1.001
1.001
1.001
1
0
2
1
1
6
7
7
8
14
19
23
22
22
37
53
76
83
118
178
219
304
340
394
401
393
317
275
283
292
337
370
167
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
4,770
4,770
0
Notes:
(1)- Per FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND.
(2)- Per Fund's historical development factors
(3) = (1) x (2).
(4) = (3) - (1).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\LDA_COUNT_NOTICE
8/25/2015 2:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 1A OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
PAID LOSS DEVELOPMENT - OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
12
24
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
36
48
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
60
72
59
6
12
32
34
4,131
1,207
561
834
890
680
13,598
11,631
4,644
3,345
3,674
4,094
2,696
30,538
30,051
21,397
11,316
10,042
8,310
10,340
5,531
61,156
52,657
45,184
32,652
19,916
16,484
15,713
17,227
8,590
12
TO
24
24
TO
36
36
TO
48
48
TO
60
60
TO
72
84
96
108
120
104,003
100,183
120,439
148,542
144,511
116,064
92,548
72,253
49,206
38,762
37,544
36,973
18,524
86,659
114,724
112,452
133,913
162,337
158,478
127,957
102,466
80,640
55,026
41,245
40,740
40,238
20,546
85,613
90,700
71,535
57,499
43,241
27,064
23,824
21,278
22,868
11,559
87,563
111,152
110,399
86,483
70,667
52,902
35,142
29,064
28,270
28,056
13,928
87,259
106,216
132,439
129,155
101,488
80,603
63,078
42,639
34,735
33,477
32,593
16,392
72
TO
84
84
TO
96
96
TO
108
108
TO
120
120
TO
132
1.103
1.122
1.112
1.093
1.097
1.102
1.107
1.116
1.118
1.064
1.085
1.088
1.109
1.076
1.095
1.075
1.066
1.092
1.089
1.100
1.082
1.114
1.074
1.081
1.102
1.064
1.087
1.101
1.094
1.103
1.094
1.094
1.096
2.535
1.086
1.084
1.085
1.081
1.084
1.084
2.313
LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
20.555
89.886
69.162
27.633
19.704
2.816
3.846
5.958
4.406
4.602
3.967
AVERAGE
45.388
4.266
3 YR AVG.
38.833
4.325
AVE EXCL HI LO
39.117
4.205
5 YR AVG EXCL HI LO
39.117
4.325
LAST YR SELECTED (MILLIMAN)
38.834
4.325
SELECTED
39.724
4.303
CUMULATIVE
3782.615
95.223
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
2.210
1.840
2.436
3.002
2.262
2.526
2.051
1.724
1.504
1.526
1.760
1.641
1.891
1.666
1.553
1.483
1.359
1.273
1.324
1.359
1.445
1.354
1.327
1.346
2.332
2.280
2.297
2.408
2.280
2.305
22.131
1.658
1.703
1.645
1.689
1.703
1.688
9.603
1.363
1.342
1.359
1.353
1.342
1.348
5.687
1.298
1.217
1.209
1.229
1.223
1.298
1.220
1.329
1.227
1.205
1.213
1.192
1.170
1.174
1.141
1.192
1.213
1.195
1.184
1.162
1.177
1.148
1.134
1.122
1.119
1.144
1.148
1.145
1.154
1.116
1.121
1.134
1.130
1.246
1.254
1.240
1.248
1.254
1.250
4.218
1.183
1.174
1.184
1.185
1.174
1.178
3.374
1.135
1.128
1.135
1.128
1.128
1.130
2.864
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_ESTPAID
8/25/2015 2:49 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 1B OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
PAID LOSS DEVELOPMENT - OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
132
144
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
156
168
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
180
192
62,879
93,230
125,680
120,868
142,787
177,309
172,507
140,748
110,916
89,836
59,094
44,582
44,911
42,802
22,335
60,813
67,343
99,923
134,958
130,017
154,657
192,014
182,890
151,755
117,473
98,009
63,535
47,147
48,005
45,995
23,374
59,354
63,927
71,375
106,835
143,743
140,105
165,569
202,965
195,276
162,583
123,590
105,513
67,639
49,731
51,382
48,153
24,039
49,323
62,087
67,245
74,630
112,593
151,376
149,059
172,177
214,210
205,394
170,520
130,228
111,417
71,324
51,671
53,189
49,360
24,679
34,239
51,026
64,871
69,979
77,256
117,870
160,195
156,905
179,603
224,255
213,774
178,486
134,856
118,732
76,631
54,012
54,968
50,468
25,241
132
TO
144
144
TO
156
156
TO
168
168
TO
180
180
TO
192
204
216
18,539
35,434
53,118
67,245
72,215
81,103
123,525
166,719
163,101
187,641
234,573
224,873
186,209
141,106
125,138
80,596
55,722
56,556
51,750
25,820
16,968
19,201
36,738
55,048
69,401
75,809
83,884
128,133
174,318
170,317
194,868
243,395
233,678
192,808
147,294
128,979
83,085
56,870
57,919
53,325
26,106
12,235
17,622
19,688
38,087
56,307
71,748
78,218
86,222
132,512
180,252
175,447
202,859
252,845
242,296
200,150
153,906
133,247
85,473
58,296
59,169
53,915
27,031
192
TO
204
204
TO
216
216
TO
228
228
16,786
12,729
18,137
20,485
39,259
58,027
73,937
80,802
88,994
136,959
185,108
181,587
208,273
261,904
251,756
207,561
157,605
136,028
89,937
60,253
59,821
55,162
240
10,833
17,136
13,129
18,660
20,804
41,201
59,780
75,791
82,743
92,225
143,016
189,644
186,905
213,806
269,857
260,219
212,983
161,404
139,084
92,382
60,842
61,516
LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1.071
1.072
1.074
1.076
1.083
1.083
1.060
1.078
1.059
1.091
1.075
1.058
1.069
1.075
1.047
1.051
1.060
1.069
1.065
1.078
1.071
1.057
1.068
1.071
1.052
1.077
1.065
1.055
1.070
1.047
1.028
AVERAGE
1.071
1.062
3 YR AVG.
1.064
1.048
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.072
1.063
5 YR AVG EXCL HI LO
1.067
1.056
LAST YR SELECTED (MILLIMAN)
1.062
1.048
SELECTED
1.065
1.053
CUMULATIVE
2.134
2.003
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
1.046
1.052
1.046
1.054
1.053
1.064
1.040
1.055
1.052
1.049
1.054
1.056
1.054
1.039
1.035
1.025
1.027
1.035
1.045
1.041
1.035
1.047
1.058
1.053
1.043
1.047
1.041
1.047
1.036
1.066
1.074
1.045
1.033
1.022
1.023
1.035
1.041
1.037
1.032
1.050
1.048
1.041
1.039
1.045
1.046
1.052
1.043
1.046
1.054
1.052
1.032
1.029
1.025
1.023
1.047
1.029
1.047
1.034
1.044
1.042
1.903
1.044
1.026
1.043
1.034
1.041
1.039
1.827
1.041
1.026
1.041
1.029
1.038
1.036
1.759
1.036
1.037
1.036
1.032
1.050
1.034
1.037
1.046
1.044
1.039
1.038
1.039
1.035
1.044
1.031
1.031
1.021
1.024
1.030
1.011
1.039
1.025
1.037
1.023
1.034
1.032
1.028
1.034
1.034
1.030
1.041
1.039
1.037
1.038
1.045
1.033
1.029
1.025
1.022
1.011
1.035
1.035
1.022
1.035
1.025
1.035
1.032
1.698
1.032
1.023
1.032
1.025
1.033
1.031
1.645
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_ESTPAID_2
8/25/2015 2:50 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
1.040
1.029
1.041
1.031
1.031
1.030
1.033
1.032
1.034
1.027
1.035
1.027
1.036
1.039
1.037
1.024
1.021
1.052
1.034
1.011
1.023
1.032
1.023
1.032
1.026
1.032
1.030
1.596
228
TO
240
1.021
1.031
1.029
1.016
1.049
1.030
1.025
1.024
1.036
1.044
1.025
1.029
1.027
1.030
1.034
1.026
1.024
1.022
1.027
1.010
1.028
1.028
1.022
1.028
1.024
1.030
1.028
1.550
240
TO
252
1.030
1.029
1.021
1.040
1.026
1.029
1.019
1.028
1.029
1.020
1.030
1.020
1.031
1.035
1.035
1.034
1.017
1.028
1.021
1.011
1.028
1.027
1.020
1.027
1.022
1.029
1.026
1.508
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 1C OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
PAID LOSS DEVELOPMENT - OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
252
264
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
4,071
11,158
17,632
13,402
19,403
21,346
42,416
60,936
77,948
85,164
94,108
147,320
193,518
192,628
221,198
279,267
269,055
216,592
165,884
141,982
93,429
62,568
13,143
4,206
11,396
18,585
13,700
20,527
21,669
43,220
63,149
79,382
86,741
96,455
151,879
197,304
197,818
228,991
286,219
276,218
220,812
168,923
143,730
97,048
276
2,324
13,631
4,328
11,766
18,903
14,039
21,077
21,947
44,202
65,407
80,683
88,359
98,500
157,338
202,714
203,691
233,271
292,515
281,561
225,577
170,262
148,945
288
1,846
2,360
13,873
4,411
11,890
19,410
14,425
21,651
22,392
44,887
66,874
82,022
89,651
100,285
160,648
207,287
206,746
237,454
296,544
288,254
228,091
173,941
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
300
312
1,286
1,886
2,448
14,213
4,482
12,361
20,036
14,617
21,967
22,844
45,585
67,761
83,153
91,029
102,614
165,184
210,601
211,445
241,069
300,465
291,550
234,993
378
1,307
1,936
2,508
14,624
4,658
12,593
20,685
14,921
22,468
23,139
46,536
68,734
84,609
92,467
104,872
168,024
214,057
214,792
244,024
303,038
299,222
324
197
386
1,353
1,986
2,526
14,684
4,717
12,941
21,171
15,307
22,844
23,579
46,915
69,652
86,558
95,493
105,941
173,808
217,148
217,705
245,871
309,071
336
67
213
536
1,377
2,093
2,563
14,815
4,895
13,300
21,537
15,477
23,150
23,883
48,005
70,789
88,263
96,766
107,002
176,109
220,901
219,550
251,113
348
200
71
217
545
1,384
2,136
2,640
14,983
4,981
13,554
21,942
15,910
23,502
24,139
48,480
71,642
89,135
98,145
107,924
178,839
222,134
224,532
360
20
225
71
228
551
1,404
2,186
2,695
15,254
5,083
13,827
22,217
16,218
23,960
24,323
49,136
73,415
89,754
98,978
108,962
180,341
226,119
LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
252
TO
264
1.033
1.021
1.054
1.022
1.058
1.015
1.019
1.036
1.018
1.019
1.025
1.031
1.020
1.027
1.035
1.025
1.027
1.019
1.018
1.012
1.039
264
TO
276
1.037
1.029
1.032
1.017
1.025
1.027
1.013
1.023
1.036
1.016
1.019
1.021
1.036
1.027
1.030
1.019
1.022
1.019
1.022
1.008
1.036
AVERAGE
1.027
1.024
3 YR AVG.
1.023
1.022
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.026
1.025
5 YR AVG EXCL HI LO
1.021
1.021
LAST YR SELECTED (MILLIMAN)
1.028
1.027
SELECTED
1.026
1.025
CUMULATIVE
1.469
1.432
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
276
TO
288
1.015
1.018
1.019
1.011
1.027
1.027
1.027
1.020
1.016
1.022
1.017
1.015
1.018
1.021
1.023
1.015
1.018
1.014
1.024
1.011
1.022
1.019
1.016
1.019
1.018
1.026
1.022
1.397
288
TO
300
1.021
1.037
1.024
1.016
1.040
1.032
1.013
1.015
1.020
1.016
1.013
1.014
1.015
1.023
1.028
1.016
1.023
1.015
1.013
1.011
1.030
1.021
1.018
1.020
1.017
1.025
1.022
1.366
300
TO
312
1.017
1.026
1.025
1.029
1.039
1.019
1.032
1.021
1.023
1.013
1.021
1.014
1.018
1.016
1.022
1.017
1.016
1.016
1.012
1.009
1.026
1.021
1.016
1.020
1.015
1.024
1.021
1.337
312
TO
324
1.021
1.035
1.026
1.007
1.004
1.013
1.028
1.023
1.026
1.017
1.019
1.008
1.013
1.023
1.033
1.010
1.034
1.014
1.014
1.008
1.020
1.019
1.014
1.019
1.016
1.023
1.020
1.310
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_ESTPAID_3
8/25/2015 2:50 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
324
TO
336
1.080
1.389
1.018
1.054
1.015
1.009
1.038
1.028
1.017
1.011
1.013
1.013
1.023
1.016
1.020
1.013
1.010
1.013
1.017
1.008
1.021
1.039
1.015
1.023
1.013
1.022
1.020
1.284
336
TO
348
1.067
1.021
1.016
1.005
1.021
1.030
1.011
1.018
1.019
1.019
1.028
1.015
1.011
1.010
1.012
1.010
1.014
1.009
1.015
1.006
1.023
1.018
1.015
1.016
1.013
1.021
1.018
1.259
348
TO
360
1.125
1.000
1.050
1.011
1.014
1.023
1.021
1.018
1.020
1.020
1.013
1.019
1.020
1.008
1.014
1.025
1.007
1.008
1.010
1.008
1.018
1.022
1.012
1.017
1.009
1.020
1.017
1.236
360
TO
372
1.033
1.036
1.000
1.090
1.011
1.005
1.011
1.007
1.011
1.017
1.020
1.013
1.020
1.013
1.016
1.008
1.019
1.008
1.006
1.006
1.017
1.017
1.010
1.015
1.010
1.019
1.016
1.215
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 1D OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
PAID LOSS DEVELOPMENT - OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
372
384
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
0
21
233
71
248
557
1,410
2,209
2,715
15,428
5,169
14,097
22,507
16,543
24,272
24,711
49,535
74,824
90,450
99,593
109,622
183,435
50
0
21
262
71
271
660
1,416
2,249
2,764
15,594
5,401
14,195
22,784
16,743
24,629
25,033
49,739
75,522
91,219
100,361
111,361
396
60
54
0
21
268
71
274
688
1,421
2,295
2,828
16,112
5,456
14,437
23,003
16,947
24,835
25,211
49,993
75,904
91,467
101,971
408
25
65
56
0
21
271
71
276
696
1,457
2,321
2,868
16,528
5,687
15,053
23,529
17,166
25,077
25,341
50,174
76,237
92,400
420
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
432
444
456
468
480
492
504
10
25
72
58
0
21
274
71
276
720
1,467
2,379
2,888
16,996
5,768
15,222
23,808
17,325
25,502
25,477
50,287
77,761
10
25
72
59
0
21
276
71
281
726
1,482
2,465
2,926
17,071
5,894
15,344
24,034
17,531
25,672
25,571
50,661
12
29
72
60
0
21
286
71
283
731
1,490
2,520
2,946
17,104
6,007
15,454
24,305
17,693
25,738
25,809
13
32
83
60
0
21
288
71
288
742
1,490
2,598
2,959
17,121
6,245
15,793
24,445
17,745
26,056
13
35
85
62
0
21
288
71
290
746
1,501
2,626
2,967
17,133
6,367
16,044
24,509
17,917
13
35
92
69
0
21
291
71
293
756
1,504
2,668
2,980
17,183
6,399
16,060
24,674
13
38
97
72
0
21
295
71
293
766
1,506
2,714
2,988
17,191
6,405
16,123
13
38
100
74
0
21
297
71
297
779
1,508
2,741
3,008
17,195
6,780
LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
372
TO
384
1.000
1.125
1.000
1.093
1.185
1.004
1.018
1.018
1.011
1.045
1.007
1.012
1.012
1.015
1.013
1.004
1.009
1.009
1.008
1.016
384
TO
396
396
TO
408
408
TO
420
420
TO
432
432
TO
444
444
TO
456
456
TO
468
468
TO
480
480
TO
492
492
TO
504
504
TO
516
1.083
1.088
1.042
1.000
1.107
1.025
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.020
1.210
1.160
1.000
1.018
1.076
1.121
1.146
1.000
1.000
1.071
1.025
1.030
1.000
1.000
1.083
1.120
1.000
1.081
1.052
1.037
1.000
1.000
1.029
1.027
1.000
1.048
1.019
1.030
1.000
1.023
1.000
1.008
1.042
1.003
1.020
1.023
1.033
1.010
1.017
1.010
1.012
1.008
1.007
1.005
1.005
1.003
1.016
1.000
1.012
1.000
1.010
1.011
1.025
1.011
1.014
1.026
1.042
1.043
1.023
1.013
1.010
1.005
1.004
1.004
1.010
1.000
1.009
1.000
1.000
1.035
1.007
1.025
1.007
1.028
1.014
1.011
1.012
1.009
1.017
1.005
1.002
1.020
1.000
1.009
1.000
1.016
1.008
1.010
1.036
1.013
1.004
1.022
1.008
1.010
1.012
1.007
1.004
1.007
1.000
1.034
1.000
1.010
1.006
1.005
1.022
1.007
1.002
1.019
1.007
1.011
1.009
1.003
1.009
1.000
1.008
1.000
1.015
1.016
1.000
1.031
1.005
1.001
1.040
1.022
1.006
1.003
1.012
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.007
1.006
1.007
1.011
1.003
1.001
1.020
1.016
1.003
1.010
1.000
1.012
1.000
1.012
1.013
1.002
1.016
1.004
1.003
1.005
1.001
1.007
1.000
1.011
1.000
1.000
1.013
1.002
1.017
1.003
1.000
1.001
1.004
1.000
1.008
1.000
1.011
1.017
1.001
1.010
1.007
1.000
1.059
1.000
1.007
1.000
1.011
1.022
1.001
1.012
1.002
1.001
AVERAGE
1.030
1.016
3 YR AVG.
1.011
1.008
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.023
1.014
5 YR AVG EXCL HI LO
1.009
1.006
LAST YR SELECTED (MILLIMAN)
1.019
1.018
SELECTED
1.016
1.014
CUMULATIVE
1.196
1.177
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
1.020
1.006
1.017
1.006
1.017
1.014
1.160
1.017
1.009
1.013
1.010
1.016
1.014
1.144
1.009
1.006
1.008
1.008
1.016
1.012
1.129
1.028
1.007
1.019
1.008
1.015
1.012
1.115
1.028
1.007
1.022
1.013
1.015
1.012
1.102
1.012
1.010
1.009
1.010
1.013
1.012
1.089
1.017
1.004
1.011
1.004
1.012
1.011
1.076
1.015
1.002
1.011
1.003
1.011
1.009
1.065
1.012
1.022
1.009
1.006
1.010
1.009
1.056
1.012
1.005
1.010
1.005
1.009
1.008
1.046
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_ESTPAID_4
8/25/2015 2:51 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 1E OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
PAID LOSS DEVELOPMENT - OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
516
528
552
564
576
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
588
600
612
624
636
648
660
672
13
39
101
76
0
21
299
71
300
796
1,509
2,774
3,014
17,204
13
39
104
76
0
21
301
71
307
811
1,509
2,775
3,024
13
39
105
79
0
21
304
71
339
827
1,509
2,786
13
39
105
81
0
21
306
71
339
829
1,509
13
39
105
83
0
21
308
71
346
837
13
39
105
85
0
21
310
71
352
13
39
105
87
0
21
310
71
13
39
105
88
0
21
311
13
39
105
88
0
21
13
39
105
88
0
13
39
105
88
13
39
105
13
39
13
516
TO
528
528
TO
540
540
TO
552
552
TO
564
564
TO
576
576
TO
588
588
TO
600
600
TO
612
612
TO
624
624
TO
636
636
TO
648
648
TO
660
660
TO
672
672
TO
ULT
1.000
1.000
1.027
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.008
1.036
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.024
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.024
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.024
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.024
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.015
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.008
1.000
1.025
1.018
1.000
1.001
1.003
1.000
1.008
1.000
1.104
1.020
1.000
1.004
1.000
1.008
1.000
1.000
1.002
1.000
1.000
1.007
1.000
1.019
1.010
1.000
1.006
1.000
1.019
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.002
1.000
AVERAGE
1.007
1.016
3 YR AVG.
1.001
1.008
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.006
1.008
5 YR AVG EXCL HI LO
1.007
1.008
LAST YR SELECTED (MILLIMAN)
1.008
1.007
SELECTED
1.007
1.007
CUMULATIVE
1.037
1.030
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
1.003
1.001
1.001
1.001
1.006
1.006
1.023
1.007
1.010
1.005
1.006
1.006
1.006
1.017
1.006
1.008
1.004
1.008
1.005
1.006
1.011
1.003
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.004
1.002
1.005
1.003
1.006
1.001
1.001
1.002
1.002
1.002
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
540
LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_ESTPAID_5
8/25/2015 2:51 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
1.000
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 2A OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
PAID LOSS DEVELOPMENT - FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
12
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
24
36
48
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
60
72
304
0
0
0
0
2,226
843
277
468
722
167
6,857
6,454
6,715
2,711
5,630
4,425
3,370
15,217
13,405
20,903
19,102
13,182
13,316
15,068
7,624
30,246
21,584
27,645
40,352
36,595
22,858
23,835
25,993
12,427
12
TO
24
24
TO
36
36
TO
48
48
TO
60
60
TO
72
84
96
108
120
30,480
33,575
40,065
57,270
64,960
58,822
83,954
94,980
73,168
42,111
39,199
39,691
17,128
14,098
31,650
35,043
43,365
63,224
71,214
65,520
92,234
101,335
75,199
42,864
40,464
40,638
17,502
41,045
38,042
31,551
41,920
61,015
49,756
31,309
30,743
32,715
14,543
33,628
45,069
45,827
43,556
57,921
74,576
61,113
36,111
34,877
36,607
15,424
31,257
36,345
51,441
54,934
52,403
73,026
85,908
68,339
40,165
37,477
38,061
16,601
72
TO
84
84
TO
96
96
TO
108
108
TO
120
120
TO
132
1.038
1.044
1.082
1.104
1.096
1.114
1.099
1.067
1.028
1.018
1.032
1.024
1.022
6.613
3.971
3.449
3.293
2.804
2.422
2.148
1.203
0.887
0.786
1.040
1.110
1.053
1.276
1.059
1.026
1.058
1.025
1.030
1.030
2.235
2.290
1.146
2.055
1.068
1.017
1.017
2.170
LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
2.776
2.900
7.967
9.799
12.039
6.126
20.214
AVERAGE
2.776
9.841
3 YR AVG.
12.793
AVE EXCL HI LO
2.776
8.983
5 YR AVG EXCL HI LO
9.935
LAST YR SELECTED (MILLIMAN)
20.000
12.000
SELECTED
20.000
12.000
CUMULATIVE
4729.764
236.488
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
1.955
3.239
2.845
4.862
2.365
3.405
2.262
1.418
2.062
1.930
1.916
1.734
1.790
1.725
1.630
1.258
1.462
1.516
1.512
1.360
1.370
1.290
1.259
1.170
2.990
2.677
2.823
2.872
3.000
3.000
19.707
1.776
1.715
1.788
1.750
1.750
1.750
6.569
1.355
1.240
1.359
1.303
1.300
1.300
3.754
1.098
1.205
1.380
1.382
1.222
1.228
1.153
1.134
1.119
1.061
1.081
1.141
1.199
1.203
1.261
1.152
1.118
1.112
1.075
1.040
1.076
1.074
1.102
1.113
1.183
1.122
1.150
1.106
1.071
1.048
1.046
1.043
1.032
1.198
1.105
1.192
1.135
1.150
1.150
2.888
1.133
1.064
1.129
1.088
1.080
1.080
2.511
1.091
1.040
1.088
1.046
1.040
1.040
2.325
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_ESTPAID_FF1
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 2B OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
PAID LOSS DEVELOPMENT - FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
132
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
144
156
168
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
180
192
3,582
14,504
32,574
37,551
46,158
68,292
79,082
71,629
95,803
103,474
76,153
43,277
40,677
41,379
17,791
2,000
3,642
15,736
34,401
39,771
48,438
72,385
83,603
74,462
98,142
105,066
77,030
43,513
40,859
41,734
17,791
4,000
2,023
3,719
16,052
35,752
40,442
50,803
75,537
86,766
75,986
99,393
106,360
77,130
44,484
40,952
41,734
17,871
1,000
4,074
2,555
4,227
16,565
37,342
41,889
53,268
78,451
88,033
77,408
99,981
106,512
77,526
44,503
40,952
41,734
17,871
2,000
1,000
4,213
2,555
4,553
18,253
38,979
42,403
54,668
79,775
89,299
78,111
100,398
106,991
77,526
44,529
40,987
41,734
17,871
132
TO
144
144
TO
156
156
TO
168
168
TO
180
180
TO
192
204
216
89
2,103
1,000
4,272
2,555
4,764
18,432
39,966
42,722
56,732
80,270
90,448
79,117
100,668
107,056
77,526
44,529
40,987
41,734
17,871
24
89
2,323
1,000
5,032
2,612
4,894
18,757
40,311
43,251
57,231
81,046
90,538
79,117
100,891
107,056
77,575
44,529
40,987
41,734
17,871
39
24
89
2,323
1,000
5,263
2,612
5,086
18,992
40,311
43,477
57,683
81,208
90,538
79,453
100,891
107,056
77,588
44,529
40,987
41,734
17,871
192
TO
204
204
TO
216
216
TO
228
228
4
39
24
89
2,442
1,305
5,605
2,612
5,331
19,024
40,516
43,477
57,729
82,095
90,538
79,503
101,182
107,085
77,598
44,529
40,987
41,734
240
4
4
39
24
89
2,945
1,707
5,605
2,783
5,548
19,142
40,567
43,477
57,797
82,095
90,538
79,503
101,182
107,085
77,598
44,529
40,987
LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1.017
1.085
1.056
1.059
1.049
1.060
1.057
1.040
1.024
1.015
1.012
1.005
1.004
1.009
1.000
1.011
1.021
1.020
1.039
1.017
1.049
1.044
1.038
1.020
1.013
1.012
1.001
1.022
1.002
1.000
1.004
AVERAGE
1.033
1.020
3 YR AVG.
1.004
1.002
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.031
1.019
5 YR AVG EXCL HI LO
1.006
1.002
LAST YR SELECTED (MILLIMAN)
1.015
1.010
SELECTED
1.015
1.010
CUMULATIVE
1.042
1.026
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
1.018
1.263
1.137
1.032
1.044
1.036
1.049
1.039
1.015
1.019
1.006
1.001
1.005
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.034
1.000
1.077
1.102
1.044
1.012
1.026
1.017
1.014
1.009
1.004
1.004
1.000
1.001
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.051
1.000
1.014
1.000
1.047
1.010
1.025
1.008
1.038
1.006
1.013
1.013
1.003
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.039
1.000
1.027
1.000
1.005
1.005
1.016
1.019
1.000
1.015
1.000
1.004
1.004
1.011
1.012
1.000
1.010
1.000
1.002
1.002
1.007
1.000
1.105
1.000
1.178
1.022
1.027
1.018
1.009
1.012
1.009
1.010
1.001
1.000
1.002
1.000
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.046
1.000
1.039
1.013
1.000
1.005
1.008
1.002
1.000
1.004
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.020
1.000
1.012
1.000
1.001
1.001
1.005
1.006
1.000
1.004
1.000
1.001
1.001
1.004
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_ESTPAID_FF2
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.051
1.305
1.065
1.000
1.048
1.002
1.005
1.000
1.001
1.011
1.000
1.001
1.003
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.023
1.000
1.010
1.000
1.001
1.001
1.003
228
TO
240
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.206
1.308
1.000
1.066
1.041
1.006
1.001
1.000
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.030
1.000
1.017
1.000
1.001
1.001
1.002
240
TO
252
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.008
1.014
1.000
1.000
1.010
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.001
1.002
1.000
1.001
1.000
1.001
1.001
1.001
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 2C OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
PAID LOSS DEVELOPMENT - FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
252
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
0
4
4
39
24
89
2,945
1,707
5,605
2,806
5,623
19,142
40,567
43,921
57,828
82,095
90,538
79,503
101,195
107,085
77,598
44,587
264
0
0
4
4
39
24
89
2,945
1,707
5,605
2,806
5,623
19,142
40,567
43,991
57,828
82,095
90,538
79,503
101,195
107,085
77,598
276
0
0
0
4
4
39
24
135
2,955
1,707
5,742
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,567
43,991
57,828
82,095
90,538
79,503
101,195
107,085
288
0
0
0
0
4
4
39
24
135
2,955
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
43,991
57,828
82,095
90,538
79,503
101,195
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
300
312
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
39
24
135
2,955
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
43,991
57,828
82,095
90,538
79,503
200
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
43,991
57,828
82,095
90,538
324
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
43,991
57,828
82,095
336
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
43,991
57,828
348
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
43,991
360
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
252
TO
264
264
TO
276
276
TO
288
288
TO
300
300
TO
312
312
TO
324
324
TO
336
336
TO
348
348
TO
360
360
TO
372
1.717
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.520
1.003
1.000
1.024
1.030
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.022
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.002
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.046
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
AVERAGE
1.000
1.030
3 YR AVG.
1.000
1.000
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.000
1.003
5 YR AVG EXCL HI LO
1.000
1.000
LAST YR SELECTED (MILLIMAN)
1.001
1.001
SELECTED
1.000
1.000
CUMULATIVE
1.000
1.000
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.003
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.042
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.002
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_ESTPAID_FF3
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 2D OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
PAID LOSS DEVELOPMENT - FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
372
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
384
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
396
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
408
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
420
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
432
444
456
468
480
492
504
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
372
TO
384
384
TO
396
396
TO
408
408
TO
420
420
TO
432
432
TO
444
444
TO
456
456
TO
468
468
TO
480
480
TO
492
492
TO
504
504
TO
516
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
AVERAGE
1.000
1.000
3 YR AVG.
1.000
1.000
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.000
1.000
5 YR AVG EXCL HI LO
1.000
1.000
LAST YR SELECTED (MILLIMAN)
1.000
1.000
SELECTED
1.000
1.000
CUMULATIVE
1.000
1.000
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_ESTPAID_FF4
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 2E OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
PAID LOSS DEVELOPMENT - FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
516
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
588
600
528
540
552
564
576
612
624
636
648
660
672
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
516
TO
528
528
TO
540
540
TO
552
552
TO
564
564
TO
576
576
TO
588
588
TO
600
600
TO
612
612
TO
624
624
TO
636
636
TO
648
648
TO
660
660
TO
672
672
TO
ULT
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
AVERAGE
1.000
1.000
3 YR AVG.
AVE EXCL HI LO
5 YR AVG EXCL HI LO
LAST YR SELECTED (MILLIMAN)
1.000
1.000
SELECTED
1.000
1.000
CUMULATIVE
1.000
1.000
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_ESTPAID_FF5
8/25/2015 2:52 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 3A OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
COUNT OF CLAIM NOTICES
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
COUNT OF NOTICES
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
216
283
292
337
370
167
228
275
283
292
337
370
240
315
275
283
292
337
252
393
316
275
283
292
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
264
276
401
393
316
275
283
394
401
393
316
275
288
340
394
401
393
317
300
304
340
394
401
393
312
219
304
340
394
401
324
178
219
304
340
394
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
216
TO
228
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
228
TO
240
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
AVERAGE
1.000
1.000
3 YR AVG.
1.000
1.000
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.000
1.000
SELECTED
1.000
1.000
CUMULATIVE
1.001
1.001
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
240
TO
252
1.003
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.001
252
TO
264
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.001
264
TO
276
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.001
276
TO
288
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.003
1.001
1.001
1.000
1.001
1.001
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_COUNT_NOTICE
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
288
TO
300
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
300
TO
312
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
312
TO
324
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
324
TO
336
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 3B OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
COUNT OF CLAIM NOTICES
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
COUNT OF NOTICES
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
336
118
178
219
304
340
348
83
118
178
219
304
360
76
83
118
178
219
372
53
76
83
118
178
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
384
396
37
53
76
83
118
22
37
53
76
83
408
22
22
37
53
76
420
23
22
22
37
53
432
19
23
22
22
37
444
14
19
23
22
22
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
336
TO
348
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
348
TO
360
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
AVERAGE
1.000
1.000
3 YR AVG.
1.000
1.000
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.000
1.000
SELECTED
1.000
1.000
CUMULATIVE
1.000
1.000
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
360
TO
372
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
372
TO
384
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
384
TO
396
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
396
TO
408
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_COUNT_NOTICE_2
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
408
TO
420
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
420
TO
432
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
432
TO
444
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
444
TO
456
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 3C OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
COUNT OF CLAIM NOTICES
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
COUNT OF NOTICES
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
456
8
14
19
23
22
468
7
8
14
19
23
480
7
7
8
14
19
492
6
7
7
8
14
504
1
6
7
7
8
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
516
528
540
1
1
6
7
7
2
1
1
6
7
0
2
1
1
6
552
564
576
588
600
1
0
2
1
1
1
0
2
1
1
0
2
1
0
1
564
TO
576
576
TO
588
588
TO
600
600
TO
ULT
1.000
1.000
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
456
TO
468
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
468
TO
480
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
AVERAGE
1.000
1.000
3 YR AVG.
1.000
1.000
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.000
1.000
SELECTED
1.000
1.000
CUMULATIVE
1.000
1.000
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
480
TO
492
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
492
TO
504
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
504
TO
516
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
516
TO
528
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
528
TO
540
540
TO
552
552
TO
564
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_COUNT_NOTICE_3
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
1.000
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 4A OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
COUNT OF REQUESTS
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
COUNT OF REQUESTS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
216
4,517
3,982
3,937
3,687
1,652
228
5,420
4,599
4,039
3,999
3,739
240
6,218
5,507
4,667
4,096
4,065
252
7,387
6,313
5,587
4,735
4,149
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
264
276
7,843
7,529
6,399
5,667
4,799
7,305
7,983
7,659
6,475
5,726
288
5,844
7,434
8,118
7,788
6,553
300
4,383
5,949
7,561
8,241
7,910
312
3,716
4,476
6,039
7,672
8,352
324
2,965
3,800
4,575
6,136
7,780
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
216
TO
228
1.018
1.014
1.016
1.014
228
TO
240
1.016
1.015
1.014
1.017
AVERAGE
1.016
1.016
3 YR AVG.
1.015
1.015
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.015
1.016
SELECTED
1.015
1.015
CUMULATIVE
1.756
1.730
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
240
TO
252
1.015
1.015
1.015
1.013
1.015
1.014
1.015
1.015
1.704
252
TO
264
1.019
1.014
1.014
1.014
1.015
1.014
1.014
1.014
1.679
264
TO
276
1.018
1.017
1.012
1.010
1.014
1.013
1.015
1.014
1.655
276
TO
288
1.018
1.017
1.017
1.012
1.016
1.015
1.017
1.016
1.633
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_COUNT_REQUEST
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
288
TO
300
1.018
1.017
1.015
1.016
1.017
1.016
1.017
1.016
1.607
300
TO
312
1.021
1.015
1.015
1.013
1.016
1.014
1.015
1.015
1.581
312
TO
324
1.023
1.022
1.016
1.014
1.019
1.017
1.019
1.018
1.557
324
TO
336
1.022
1.020
1.020
1.013
1.019
1.018
1.020
1.019
1.529
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 4B OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
COUNT OF REQUESTS
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
COUNT OF REQUESTS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
336
2,521
3,031
3,876
4,665
6,214
348
1,844
2,571
3,092
3,944
4,743
360
1,868
1,891
2,619
3,152
4,010
372
1,330
1,912
1,922
2,662
3,206
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
384
396
1,012
1,364
1,946
1,958
2,711
592
1,029
1,390
1,985
1,988
408
640
607
1,044
1,420
2,014
420
541
658
620
1,057
1,449
432
548
560
672
634
1,076
444
455
567
578
683
645
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
336
TO
348
1.020
1.020
1.018
1.017
348
TO
360
1.025
1.019
1.019
1.017
AVERAGE
1.019
1.020
3 YR AVG.
1.018
1.018
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.019
1.019
SELECTED
1.019
1.019
CUMULATIVE
1.501
1.473
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
360
TO
372
1.024
1.016
1.016
1.017
1.018
1.016
1.017
1.017
1.446
372
TO
384
1.026
1.018
1.019
1.018
1.020
1.018
1.019
1.019
1.422
384
TO
396
1.017
1.019
1.020
1.015
1.018
1.018
1.018
1.018
1.395
396
TO
408
1.025
1.015
1.022
1.015
1.019
1.017
1.019
1.018
1.371
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_COUNT_REQUEST_2
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
408
TO
420
1.028
1.021
1.012
1.020
1.020
1.018
1.021
1.019
1.346
420
TO
432
1.035
1.021
1.023
1.018
1.024
1.021
1.022
1.022
1.320
432
TO
444
1.035
1.032
1.016
1.017
1.025
1.022
1.025
1.024
1.291
444
TO
456
1.020
1.021
1.021
1.018
1.020
1.020
1.021
1.020
1.261
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 4C OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
COUNT OF REQUESTS
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
COUNT OF REQUESTS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
456
265
464
579
590
695
468
306
272
478
591
604
480
198
311
279
484
604
492
219
206
316
284
491
504
68
224
212
321
290
516
75
69
229
217
324
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
528
540
552
31
77
69
232
221
8
32
79
69
237
30
8
32
81
69
564
2
31
8
33
83
576
0
2
32
8
34
588
28
0
2
33
8
600
20
29
0
2
34
612
5
20
29
0
2
624
3
5
20
29
0
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
456
TO
468
1.026
1.030
1.021
1.024
468
TO
480
1.016
1.026
1.013
1.022
AVERAGE
1.025
1.019
3 YR AVG.
1.025
1.020
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.025
1.019
SELECTED
1.025
1.020
CUMULATIVE
1.236
1.206
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
480
TO
492
1.040
1.016
1.018
1.014
1.022
1.016
1.017
1.018
1.183
492
TO
504
1.023
1.029
1.016
1.021
1.022
1.022
1.022
1.022
1.162
504
TO
516
1.015
1.022
1.024
1.009
1.018
1.018
1.019
1.018
1.137
516
TO
528
1.027
1.000
1.013
1.018
1.015
1.010
1.016
1.013
1.116
528
TO
540
1.032
1.026
1.000
1.022
1.020
1.016
1.024
1.020
1.102
540
TO
552
1.000
1.000
1.025
1.000
1.006
1.008
1.000
1.005
1.080
552
TO
564
1.033
1.000
1.031
1.025
1.022
1.019
1.028
1.023
1.075
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_COUNT_REQUESTS_3
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
564
TO
576
576
TO
588
1.000
1.032
1.000
1.030
1.000
1.031
1.000
1.016
1.021
1.015
1.017
1.051
1.010
1.010
1.000
1.007
1.033
588
TO
600
600
TO
612
612
TO
624
1.036
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.030
624
TO
ULT
1.000
1.022
1.000
1.000
1.030
1.026
1.026
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 5A OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
REQUESTED AMOUNT
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
CUMULATIVE REQUESTED AMOUNT
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
216
174,740
113,904
109,654
106,678
50,431
228
253,270
179,807
116,246
110,915
107,864
240
267,893
256,802
183,400
117,549
112,280
252
289,952
274,609
260,544
185,730
118,834
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
264
276
333,689
294,535
277,924
265,032
189,006
304,313
340,211
299,552
280,525
267,024
288
218,111
309,144
348,151
304,498
282,726
300
175,166
222,757
313,986
354,524
310,618
312
151,549
178,837
225,889
317,944
361,016
324
116,452
154,922
182,402
230,317
322,670
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
216
TO
228
1.029
1.021
1.012
1.011
228
TO
240
1.014
1.020
1.011
1.012
AVERAGE
1.018
1.014
3 YR AVG.
1.015
1.014
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.017
1.013
SELECTED
1.016
1.014
CUMULATIVE
1.812
1.783
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
240
TO
252
1.025
1.015
1.013
1.011
1.016
1.013
1.014
1.014
1.758
252
TO
264
1.016
1.012
1.017
1.018
1.016
1.016
1.017
1.016
1.734
264
TO
276
1.020
1.017
1.009
1.008
1.014
1.011
1.013
1.013
1.706
276
TO
288
1.016
1.023
1.017
1.008
1.016
1.016
1.017
1.016
1.685
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_AMOUNT_REQUEST
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
288
TO
300
1.021
1.016
1.018
1.020
1.019
1.018
1.019
1.019
1.658
300
TO
312
1.021
1.014
1.013
1.018
1.017
1.015
1.016
1.016
1.628
312
TO
324
1.022
1.020
1.020
1.015
1.019
1.018
1.020
1.019
1.603
324
TO
336
1.025
1.026
1.022
1.016
1.022
1.021
1.024
1.022
1.572
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 5B OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
REQUESTED AMOUNT
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
CUMULATIVE REQUESTED AMOUNT
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
336
63,588
119,400
159,010
186,489
234,026
348
48,896
64,582
122,397
161,966
189,884
360
41,300
49,941
65,910
125,272
164,768
372
35,673
42,113
50,774
66,767
129,419
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
384
396
22,333
37,150
43,321
52,304
67,872
9,441
22,788
38,701
44,250
52,877
408
11,306
9,570
23,003
39,473
44,907
420
6,590
11,767
9,724
23,263
39,913
432
9,704
6,799
12,047
9,873
23,862
444
5,627
10,001
6,995
12,460
10,015
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
336
TO
348
1.016
1.025
1.019
1.018
348
TO
360
1.021
1.021
1.023
1.017
AVERAGE
1.020
1.021
3 YR AVG.
1.021
1.020
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.019
1.021
SELECTED
1.020
1.021
CUMULATIVE
1.538
1.509
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
360
TO
372
1.020
1.017
1.013
1.033
1.021
1.021
1.019
1.020
1.478
372
TO
384
1.041
1.029
1.030
1.017
1.029
1.025
1.030
1.028
1.449
384
TO
396
1.020
1.042
1.021
1.011
1.024
1.025
1.021
1.023
1.409
396
TO
408
1.014
1.009
1.020
1.015
1.015
1.015
1.015
1.015
1.378
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_AMOUNT_REQUEST_2
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
408
TO
420
1.041
1.016
1.011
1.011
1.020
1.013
1.014
1.015
1.358
420
TO
432
1.032
1.024
1.015
1.026
1.024
1.022
1.025
1.024
1.338
432
TO
444
1.031
1.029
1.034
1.014
1.027
1.026
1.030
1.028
1.307
444
TO
456
1.064
1.020
1.015
1.016
1.029
1.017
1.018
1.021
1.272
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 5C OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
REQUESTED AMOUNT
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
CUMULATIVE REQUESTED AMOUNT
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
456
2,663
5,987
10,205
7,101
12,654
468
6,322
2,785
6,300
10,368
7,253
480
1,165
6,399
2,821
6,355
10,832
492
1,144
1,178
6,407
3,185
6,545
504
306
1,173
1,202
6,437
3,233
516
602
307
1,208
1,210
6,442
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
528
540
552
121
617
307
1,235
1,267
21
153
633
307
1,263
123
21
153
642
307
564
1
126
21
159
650
576
0
1
128
21
160
588
57
0
1
128
21
600
50
58
0
1
132
612
63
50
58
0
1
624
5
63
50
58
0
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
456
TO
468
1.046
1.052
1.016
1.021
468
TO
480
1.012
1.013
1.009
1.045
AVERAGE
1.034
1.020
3 YR AVG.
1.030
1.022
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.034
1.013
SELECTED
1.032
1.018
CUMULATIVE
1.245
1.206
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
480
TO
492
1.011
1.001
1.129
1.030
1.043
1.053
1.021
1.039
1.185
492
TO
504
1.025
1.020
1.005
1.015
1.016
1.013
1.018
1.016
1.140
504
TO
516
1.004
1.030
1.007
1.001
1.011
1.013
1.006
1.010
1.123
516
TO
528
1.024
1.000
1.022
1.047
1.023
1.023
1.023
1.023
1.112
528
TO
540
1.264
1.027
1.000
1.023
1.079
1.017
1.025
1.040
1.087
540
TO
552
1.000
1.000
1.014
1.000
1.004
1.005
1.000
1.003
1.045
552
TO
564
1.018
1.000
1.042
1.012
1.018
1.018
1.015
1.017
1.042
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_AMOUNT_REQUEST_3
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
564
TO
576
576
TO
588
1.000
1.015
1.000
1.001
1.000
1.005
1.000
1.004
1.005
1.001
1.003
1.025
1.002
1.002
1.000
1.001
1.022
588
TO
600
600
TO
612
612
TO
624
1.023
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.031
624
TO
ULT
1.000
1.018
1.000
1.000
1.023
1.021
1.021
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 6A OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
AVERAGE REQUESTED AMOUNT
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
AVERAGE REQUESTED AMOUNT
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
216
39
29
28
29
31
228
47
39
29
28
29
240
43
47
39
29
28
252
39
43
47
39
29
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
264
276
43
39
43
47
39
42
43
39
43
47
288
37
42
43
39
43
300
40
37
42
43
39
312
41
40
37
41
43
324
39
41
40
38
41
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
216
TO
228
1.011
1.006
0.996
0.997
228
TO
240
0.998
1.005
0.997
0.996
AVERAGE
1.003
0.999
3 YR AVG.
1.000
0.999
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.002
0.998
SELECTED
1.001
0.999
CUMULATIVE
1.018
1.016
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
240
TO
252
1.010
1.000
0.998
0.998
1.002
0.999
0.999
1.000
1.018
252
TO
264
0.997
0.998
1.003
1.004
1.001
1.002
1.001
1.001
1.018
264
TO
276
1.002
1.000
0.998
0.997
0.999
0.998
0.999
0.999
1.017
276
TO
288
0.998
1.006
1.000
0.996
1.000
1.001
0.999
1.000
1.018
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_AVERAGE REQUESTED AMT
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
288
TO
300
1.003
0.999
1.003
1.004
1.002
1.002
1.003
1.002
1.018
300
TO
312
1.000
0.999
0.998
1.005
1.001
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.016
312
TO
324
1.000
0.998
1.003
1.001
1.001
1.001
1.001
1.001
1.016
324
TO
336
1.003
1.006
1.003
1.003
1.004
1.004
1.003
1.004
1.015
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 6B OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
AVERAGE REQUESTED AMOUNT
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
AVERAGE REQUESTED AMOUNT
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
336
25
39
41
40
38
348
27
25
40
41
40
360
22
26
25
40
41
372
27
22
26
25
40
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
384
396
22
27
22
27
25
16
22
28
22
27
408
18
16
22
28
22
420
12
18
16
22
28
432
18
12
18
16
22
444
12
18
12
18
16
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
336
TO
348
0.996
1.005
1.001
1.001
348
TO
360
0.996
1.002
1.004
1.001
AVERAGE
1.001
1.001
3 YR AVG.
1.002
1.002
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.001
1.002
SELECTED
1.001
1.002
CUMULATIVE
1.011
1.010
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
360
TO
372
0.996
1.000
0.997
1.016
1.002
1.004
0.999
1.002
1.009
372
TO
384
1.015
1.011
1.011
0.998
1.009
1.007
1.011
1.009
1.007
384
TO
396
1.004
1.022
1.001
0.996
1.006
1.006
1.003
1.005
0.998
396
TO
408
0.989
0.995
0.998
1.000
0.996
0.998
0.997
0.997
0.993
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_AVERAGE REQUESTED AMT_2
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
408
TO
420
1.012
0.995
0.999
0.991
0.999
0.995
0.997
0.997
0.997
420
TO
432
0.997
1.003
0.993
1.008
1.000
1.001
1.000
1.001
1.000
432
TO
444
0.996
0.997
1.018
0.997
1.002
1.004
0.997
1.001
0.999
444
TO
456
1.043
0.999
0.995
0.998
1.009
0.997
0.999
1.002
0.998
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 6C OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
AVERAGE REQUESTED AMOUNT
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
AVERAGE REQUESTED AMOUNT
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
456
10
13
18
12
18
468
21
10
13
18
12
480
6
21
10
13
18
492
5
6
20
11
13
504
4
5
6
20
11
516
8
4
5
6
20
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
528
540
552
4
8
4
5
6
4
3
5
8
4
3
5
8
4
5
564
576
588
600
612
624
2
3
2
13
3
2
2
13
3
2
0
4
3
5
8
0
4
3
5
0
4
3
0
4
0
564
TO
576
576
TO
588
588
TO
600
600
TO
612
612
TO
624
0.988
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
456
TO
468
1.019
1.022
0.995
0.998
468
TO
480
0.996
0.988
0.996
1.022
AVERAGE
1.009
1.001
3 YR AVG.
1.005
1.002
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.009
0.996
SELECTED
1.007
1.000
CUMULATIVE
0.997
0.989
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
480
TO
492
0.972
0.985
1.109
1.015
1.020
1.036
1.000
1.019
0.990
492
TO
504
1.002
0.992
0.989
0.994
0.994
0.992
0.993
0.993
0.971
504
TO
516
0.989
1.007
0.984
0.992
0.993
0.994
0.991
0.993
0.978
516
TO
528
0.998
1.000
1.009
1.028
1.009
1.012
1.005
1.009
0.986
528
TO
540
1.224
1.001
1.000
1.002
1.057
1.001
1.002
1.002
0.977
540
TO
552
1.000
1.000
0.989
1.000
0.997
0.996
1.000
0.998
0.976
552
TO
564
0.985
1.000
1.010
0.988
0.996
0.999
0.994
0.996
0.978
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_AVERAGE REQUESTED AMT_3
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
1.000
0.984
1.000
0.972
1.000
0.975
1.000
0.989
0.985
0.992
0.989
0.981
0.992
0.992
1.000
0.994
0.993
1.000
1.001
624
TO
ULT
1.000
0.996
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.998
0.998
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 7A OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
COUNT OF PAYMENTS
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
COUNT OF PAYMENTS - OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
216
228
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
2,674
2,575
2,634
2,476
1,157
3,374
2,754
2,647
2,710
2,545
240
4,504
3,465
2,841
2,718
2,807
252
6,027
4,594
3,562
2,912
2,800
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
264
276
6,644
6,179
4,703
3,646
3,006
6,397
6,778
6,336
4,799
3,751
288
5,266
6,534
6,942
6,479
4,909
300
4,075
5,379
6,675
7,082
6,660
312
3,501
4,166
5,498
6,801
7,253
324
2,839
3,583
4,277
5,592
6,958
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
216
TO
228
1.030
1.028
1.029
1.028
228
TO
240
1.027
1.032
1.027
1.036
AVERAGE
1.029
1.031
3 YR AVG.
1.028
1.032
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.029
1.030
SELECTED
1.029
1.030
CUMULATIVE
2.087
2.029
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
240
TO
252
1.020
1.028
1.025
1.030
1.026
1.028
1.027
1.027
1.971
252
TO
264
1.025
1.024
1.024
1.032
1.026
1.027
1.025
1.025
1.920
264
TO
276
1.020
1.025
1.020
1.029
1.024
1.025
1.023
1.023
1.874
276
TO
288
1.021
1.024
1.023
1.023
1.023
1.023
1.023
1.023
1.833
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_COUNT_PAID
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
288
TO
300
1.021
1.022
1.020
1.028
1.023
1.023
1.022
1.022
1.792
300
TO
312
1.022
1.022
1.019
1.024
1.022
1.022
1.022
1.022
1.754
312
TO
324
1.023
1.027
1.017
1.023
1.023
1.022
1.023
1.023
1.716
324
TO
336
1.027
1.025
1.024
1.023
1.025
1.024
1.025
1.025
1.678
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 7B OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
COUNT OF PAYMENTS
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
COUNT OF PAYMENTS - OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
336
348
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
2,427
2,917
3,672
4,378
5,718
1,795
2,477
2,988
3,757
4,492
360
1,822
1,834
2,545
3,056
3,849
372
1,297
1,857
1,882
2,595
3,138
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
384
396
996
1,321
1,903
1,914
2,667
570
1,009
1,361
1,940
1,962
408
626
588
1,026
1,394
1,991
420
535
641
606
1,044
1,441
432
541
549
662
621
1,066
444
448
556
569
675
640
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
336
TO
348
1.021
1.024
1.023
1.026
348
TO
360
1.022
1.027
1.023
1.024
AVERAGE
1.024
1.024
3 YR AVG.
1.024
1.025
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.024
1.024
SELECTED
1.024
1.024
CUMULATIVE
1.638
1.600
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
360
TO
372
1.019
1.026
1.020
1.027
1.023
1.024
1.023
1.023
1.563
372
TO
384
1.019
1.025
1.017
1.028
1.022
1.023
1.022
1.022
1.528
384
TO
396
1.013
1.030
1.019
1.025
1.022
1.025
1.022
1.022
1.495
396
TO
408
1.032
1.017
1.024
1.026
1.025
1.022
1.025
1.025
1.463
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_COUNT_PAID_2
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
408
TO
420
1.024
1.031
1.018
1.034
1.027
1.028
1.028
1.028
1.427
420
TO
432
1.026
1.033
1.025
1.021
1.026
1.026
1.026
1.026
1.389
432
TO
444
1.028
1.036
1.020
1.031
1.029
1.029
1.030
1.030
1.355
444
TO
456
1.027
1.031
1.030
1.028
1.029
1.030
1.029
1.029
1.316
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 7C OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
COUNT OF PAYMENTS
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
COUNT OF PAYMENTS - OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
456
468
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
260
460
573
586
694
301
267
470
586
603
480
198
307
276
482
603
492
216
204
311
282
490
504
67
222
211
318
290
516
72
67
227
215
323
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
528
540
552
30
75
69
232
221
8
31
77
69
237
30
8
32
79
69
564
2
31
8
32
82
576
0
2
32
8
34
588
27
0
2
33
8
600
20
28
0
2
34
612
5
20
29
0
2
624
3
5
20
29
0
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
456
TO
468
1.027
1.022
1.023
1.029
468
TO
480
1.020
1.034
1.026
1.029
AVERAGE
1.025
1.027
3 YR AVG.
1.025
1.030
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.025
1.028
SELECTED
1.025
1.028
CUMULATIVE
1.279
1.248
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
480
TO
492
1.030
1.013
1.022
1.017
1.021
1.017
1.020
1.020
1.214
492
TO
504
1.028
1.034
1.023
1.028
1.028
1.028
1.028
1.028
1.191
504
TO
516
1.000
1.023
1.019
1.016
1.015
1.019
1.018
1.018
1.158
516
TO
528
1.042
1.030
1.022
1.028
1.031
1.027
1.029
1.029
1.139
528
TO
540
1.033
1.027
1.000
1.022
1.021
1.016
1.025
1.025
1.106
540
TO
552
1.000
1.032
1.026
1.000
1.015
1.019
1.013
1.013
1.080
552
TO
564
1.033
1.000
1.000
1.038
1.018
1.013
1.017
1.017
1.066
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_COUNT_PAID_3
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
564
TO
576
576
TO
588
1.000
1.032
1.000
1.063
1.000
1.031
1.000
1.024
1.032
1.016
1.016
1.049
1.010
1.010
1.000
1.000
1.032
588
TO
600
600
TO
612
612
TO
624
1.037
1.000
1.036
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.030
624
TO
ULT
1.000
1.022
1.012
1.000
1.030
1.026
1.032
1.000
1.006
1.006
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 8A OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
AVERAGE AMOUNT PAID
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
AVERAGE AMOUT PAID - OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
216
228
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
32
23
22
22
23
40
33
23
22
22
240
36
40
33
22
22
252
36
36
40
32
22
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
264
276
42
36
36
39
32
46
42
36
35
40
288
45
45
42
35
35
300
52
45
45
41
35
312
61
52
44
45
41
324
61
61
51
44
44
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
216
TO
228
1.022
1.005
0.983
0.995
228
TO
240
0.996
0.996
0.983
0.993
AVERAGE
1.001
0.992
3 YR AVG.
0.994
0.991
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.000
0.995
SELECTED
1.001
0.995
CUMULATIVE
0.734
0.733
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
240
TO
252
1.008
0.993
0.987
0.998
0.997
0.993
0.996
0.997
0.737
252
TO
264
0.994
0.995
0.989
1.006
0.996
0.997
0.995
0.997
0.739
264
TO
276
0.999
0.996
0.988
1.007
0.998
0.997
0.998
0.998
0.742
276
TO
288
0.993
1.000
0.989
0.999
0.995
0.996
0.996
0.996
0.744
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_AVERAGE PAID AMT
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
288
TO
300
0.994
0.992
0.991
1.002
0.995
0.995
0.993
0.995
0.747
300
TO
312
0.994
0.990
0.990
1.002
0.994
0.994
0.992
0.994
0.750
312
TO
324
0.991
0.987
0.991
0.997
0.992
0.992
0.991
0.992
0.755
324
TO
336
0.986
0.993
0.985
0.999
0.991
0.992
0.990
0.992
0.761
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 8B OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
AVERAGE AMOUNT PAID
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
AVERAGE AMOUT PAID - OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
336
348
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
44
60
60
50
44
55
44
60
59
50
360
49
54
43
59
59
372
58
49
53
42
58
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
384
396
50
57
48
52
42
44
50
56
47
52
408
40
43
49
55
46
420
32
40
42
48
54
432
44
32
39
41
48
444
34
44
31
38
40
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
336
TO
348
0.988
0.991
0.983
0.997
348
TO
360
0.987
0.983
0.986
0.994
AVERAGE
0.990
0.988
3 YR AVG.
0.990
0.988
AVE EXCL HI LO
0.990
0.987
SELECTED
0.990
0.988
CUMULATIVE
0.767
0.775
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
360
TO
372
0.989
0.981
0.987
0.991
0.987
0.986
0.988
0.988
0.784
372
TO
384
0.991
0.984
0.991
0.988
0.989
0.988
0.990
0.990
0.794
384
TO
396
0.992
0.976
0.984
0.991
0.986
0.984
0.988
0.988
0.802
396
TO
408
0.974
0.987
0.981
0.984
0.982
0.984
0.983
0.984
0.813
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_AVERAGE PAID AMT_2
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
408
TO
420
0.993
0.975
0.985
0.987
0.985
0.982
0.986
0.986
0.826
420
TO
432
0.986
0.975
0.979
0.987
0.982
0.980
0.983
0.983
0.837
432
TO
444
0.984
0.974
0.983
0.979
0.980
0.979
0.981
0.981
0.852
444
TO
456
0.995
0.976
0.974
0.985
0.983
0.978
0.981
0.983
0.869
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 8C OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
AVERAGE AMOUNT PAID
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
AVERAGE AMOUT PAID - OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
456
468
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
24
34
43
30
38
57
24
34
42
30
480
15
56
23
33
41
492
13
15
55
23
33
504
23
12
14
54
23
516
11
23
12
14
53
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
528
540
552
10
11
22
12
14
9
11
11
22
12
10
9
11
10
22
564
576
588
600
612
624
3
5
3
8
5
3
4
8
5
3
10
10
9
11
10
10
10
9
10
10
9
9
10
9
10
564
TO
576
576
TO
588
588
TO
600
600
TO
612
612
TO
624
0.979
1.000
0.966
1.000
1.000
1.000
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
456
TO
468
0.993
0.994
0.980
0.981
468
TO
480
0.983
0.972
0.976
0.978
AVERAGE
0.987
0.977
3 YR AVG.
0.985
0.975
AVE EXCL HI LO
0.987
0.977
SELECTED
0.987
0.977
CUMULATIVE
0.884
0.896
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
480
TO
492
0.973
0.988
0.980
0.988
0.982
0.985
0.984
0.985
0.917
492
TO
504
0.983
0.973
0.978
1.029
0.991
0.993
0.981
0.993
0.931
504
TO
516
1.001
0.990
0.983
0.985
0.990
0.986
0.988
0.990
0.937
516
TO
528
0.978
0.971
0.979
0.976
0.976
0.975
0.977
0.977
0.946
528
TO
540
1.068
0.994
1.000
0.983
1.011
0.992
0.997
1.011
0.969
540
TO
552
1.000
0.969
0.977
1.000
0.987
0.982
0.989
0.989
0.958
552
TO
564
0.975
1.000
1.019
0.973
0.992
0.997
0.988
0.997
0.969
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_AVERAGE PAID AMT_3
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
1.000
0.975
1.000
0.959
1.000
0.970
1.000
0.984
0.978
0.988
0.988
0.972
0.990
0.990
1.000
1.000
0.984
1.000
0.973
624
TO
ULT
1.000
0.984
0.989
1.000
0.979
0.984
0.984
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 9A OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
COUNT OF PAYMENTS
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
COUNT OF PAYMENTS - FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
216
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1,790
1,347
1,258
1,194
495
228
1,974
1,790
1,348
1,258
1,194
240
1,643
1,975
1,793
1,348
1,258
252
1,249
1,643
1,975
1,793
1,349
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
264
276
1,098
1,250
1,644
1,975
1,793
823
1,099
1,250
1,644
1,975
288
496
823
1,099
1,250
1,644
300
251
496
823
1,099
1,250
312
161
251
496
823
1,099
324
68
161
251
496
823
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
216
TO
228
1.000
1.001
1.000
1.000
228
TO
240
1.001
1.002
1.000
1.000
AVERAGE
1.000
1.001
3 YR AVG.
1.000
1.001
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.000
1.001
SELECTED
1.000
1.001
CUMULATIVE
1.002
1.001
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
240
TO
252
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.001
252
TO
264
1.001
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.001
1.000
1.001
1.000
1.001
264
TO
276
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
276
TO
288
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_COUNT_PAID_FF
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
288
TO
300
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
300
TO
312
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
312
TO
324
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
324
TO
336
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 9B OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
COUNT OF PAYMENTS
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
COUNT OF PAYMENTS - FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
336
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
44
68
161
251
496
348
26
44
68
161
251
360
23
26
44
68
161
372
8
23
26
44
68
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
384
396
10
8
23
26
44
5
10
8
23
26
408
1
5
10
8
23
420
1
1
5
10
8
432
1
1
1
5
10
444
1
1
1
1
5
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
336
TO
348
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
348
TO
360
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
AVERAGE
1.000
1.000
3 YR AVG.
1.000
1.000
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.000
1.000
SELECTED
1.000
1.000
CUMULATIVE
1.000
1.000
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
360
TO
372
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
372
TO
384
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
384
TO
396
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
396
TO
408
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_COUNT_PAID_FF2
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
408
TO
420
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
420
TO
432
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
432
TO
444
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
444
TO
456
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 9C OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
COUNT OF PAYMENTS
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
COUNT OF PAYMENTS - FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
456
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
0
1
1
1
1
468
1
0
1
1
1
480
0
1
0
1
1
492
0
0
1
0
1
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
504
516
0
0
0
1
0
528
540
552
564
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
516
TO
528
528
TO
540
540
TO
552
552
TO
564
564
TO
ULT
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
456
TO
468
468
TO
480
480
TO
492
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
AVERAGE
1.000
1.000
3 YR AVG.
1.000
1.000
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.000
1.000
SELECTED
1.000
1.000
CUMULATIVE
1.000
1.000
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
492
TO
504
504
TO
516
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_COUNT_PAID_FF3
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
1.000
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 10A OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
AVERAGE AMOUNT PAID
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
AVERAGE AMOUT PAID - FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
216
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
43
33
33
35
36
228
54
43
33
33
35
240
62
54
43
33
33
252
64
62
54
43
33
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
264
276
82
64
62
54
43
100
82
64
62
54
288
117
100
82
64
62
300
175
117
100
82
64
312
252
175
117
100
82
324
281
252
175
117
100
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
216
TO
228
1.000
0.999
1.000
1.000
228
TO
240
0.999
0.998
1.000
1.000
AVERAGE
1.000
0.999
3 YR AVG.
1.000
0.999
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.000
1.000
SELECTED
1.000
1.000
CUMULATIVE
0.999
1.000
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
240
TO
252
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
252
TO
264
0.999
0.999
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
264
TO
276
0.999
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
276
TO
288
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_AVERAGE PAID AMT_FF
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
288
TO
300
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
300
TO
312
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
312
TO
324
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
324
TO
336
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 10B OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
AVERAGE AMOUNT PAID
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
AVERAGE AMOUT PAID - FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
336
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
128
281
252
175
117
348
111
128
281
252
175
360
255
111
128
281
252
372
213
255
111
128
281
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
384
396
309
213
255
111
128
27
309
213
255
111
408
24
27
309
213
255
420
39
24
27
309
213
432
4
39
24
27
309
444
4
4
39
24
27
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
336
TO
348
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
348
TO
360
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
AVERAGE
1.000
1.000
3 YR AVG.
1.000
1.000
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.000
1.000
SELECTED
1.000
1.000
CUMULATIVE
1.000
1.000
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
360
TO
372
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
372
TO
384
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
384
TO
396
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
396
TO
408
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_AVERAGE PAID AMT_FF2
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
408
TO
420
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
420
TO
432
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
432
TO
444
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
444
TO
456
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
EXHIBIT IV
PAGE 10C OF 10
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
AVERAGE AMOUNT PAID
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
AVERAGE AMOUT PAID - FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
456
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
468
480
492
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS
504
516
343
7
7
7
4
4
39
24
4
4
39
4
4
4
456
TO
468
468
TO
480
480
TO
492
492
TO
504
528
540
552
564
343
343
343
343
564
TO
ULT
7
7
504
TO
516
516
TO
528
528
TO
540
540
TO
552
552
TO
564
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
ACCIDENT
YEAR
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
AVERAGE
1.000
1.000
3 YR AVG.
1.000
1.000
AVE EXCL HI LO
1.000
1.000
SELECTED
1.000
1.000
CUMULATIVE
1.000
1.000
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\SDTF_2015\TRI_AVERAGE PAID AMT_FF3
8/24/2015 12:48 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
1.000
EXHIBIT V
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
SUMMARY OF UNDISCOUNTED AND DISCOUNTED RESERVES - LIFE ANNUITY APPROACH
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMOUNTS IN '000s)
LIFE ANNUITY APPROACH INDICATED RESERVES
NUMBER OF
AVERAGE
ACCIDENT
OPEN CLAIMS
CLAIMANT AGE
YEAR
@6/30/2015
@6/30/2015
(1)
(2)
AVG ANNUAL PAYMENT
OPEN CLAIMS
ACTIVE IN FY 2011-2015
(3)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
2
1
1
6
7
7
8
14
19
23
22
22
37
53
76
83
118
178
219
304
340
394
401
393
317
275
283
292
337
370
167
71
$2
86
73
100
87
88
83
77
80
86
82
80
81
78
76
79
76
75
73
73
73
72
70
69
69
67
67
66
66
65
64
64
TOTAL
4,770
69
AT LEAST ONE PAYMENT
2011 - 2015
(4)
RESERVE FOR OPEN CLAIMS WITH :
AT LEAST ONE PAYMENT
AT LEAST ONE PAYMENT
2006 - 2010
2005 OR PRIOR
(5)
(6)
(7)
PIPELINE
CLAIMS
(Approved, but not Paid)
(8)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
24
0
4
29
12
6
0
86
122
39
136
511
495
502
580
620
586
585
397
343
305
111
251
484
65
$19,781
$0
$6,297
762
69
17
$25.960
1,650
68
17
$0.000
One future payment equal to
latest payment;
no inflation adjustment
No future payments
0
12
0
5
2
9
9
21
19
10
15
14
12
23
18
17
19
31
32
32
30
27
40
27
24
29
25
16
15
14
17
$0
0
0
0
0
0
35
0
0
244
0
114
68
356
934
2,967
1,871
1,928
2,915
2,147
5,300
12,340
11,652
13,648
18,521
45,161
52,370
69,516
58,989
76,598
172,093
122,144
65,169
78,623
68,343
33,750
43,973
32,940
18,284
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
11
1
68
6
39
98
32
235
124
166
200
156
245
764
835
1,550
1,296
1,989
1,039
910
1,495
1,053
858
788
1,733
337
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
10
0
36
24
0
3
38
19
7
18
67
59
100
280
580
616
881
1,313
1,601
3,044
1,888
2,907
1,686
910
998
1,144
592
786
169
$25
$1,012,992
$16,027
1,638
71
15
$25.203
720
70
16
$22.260
Life Annuity; 5% annual inflation;
5yr average annual payment
One future payment equal to latest
payment;
no inflation adjustment
CLAIM COUNT
AVERAGE CLAIMANT AGE
AVERAGE CLAIMANT LIFE EXPECTANCY
AVERAGE ANNUAL PAYMENT AMOUNT
RESERVE ASSUMPTIONS
Notes:
(1), (2), (3), & (8)- Per FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND.
(4)-(7)- Per AMI calculation. Based on inflation and latest payments.
(10 ) = Sum of Columns (4) to (9).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\Open Claims\Summary_Open Claims Res
8/24/2015 1:12 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
NO PRIOR PAYMENTS
PROVISION FOR
REOPENED CLAIMS
TOTAL
RESERVES
(9)
(10)
$0
0
0
0
0
0
35
0
3
244
10
114
107
391
959
3,038
1,918
2,015
3,032
2,203
5,602
12,610
12,040
14,166
19,392
46,533
54,510
72,167
62,720
81,558
176,557
126,674
68,162
81,371
70,698
35,864
45,604
35,943
18,855
$0
$1,055,097
EXHIBIT VI
PAGE 1A OF 5
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF PAID LOSS CASH FLOW - FISCAL YEAR 2015/2016
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
SELECTED PAID LOSS CASHFLOW - ALL CLAIMS
EXPECTED CONFIDENCE LEVEL
ACCIDENT
YEARS*
PAID LOSS CASHFLOW
FIRST AND FINAL
OTHER THAN
CLAIMS
FIRST AND FINAL
(1)
(2)
TOTAL
CASHFLOW
(3)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(0)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(0)
(0)
(0)
0
(0)
0
0
0
0
(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)
0
0
0
(0)
37
42
18
($0)
(0)
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
20
10
19
25
130
76
202
246
213
331
319
630
991
1,322
1,435
1,633
3,080
3,701
4,106
4,544
6,102
6,677
5,273
3,821
3,423
2,636
1,671
1,711
1,544
818
($0)
(0)
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
20
10
19
25
130
76
202
246
213
331
319
630
991
1,322
1,435
1,633
3,080
3,701
4,106
4,544
6,102
6,677
5,273
3,821
3,423
2,636
1,671
1,748
1,587
837
TOTAL
$98
$56,712
$56,810
Minimum
Maximum
$54,617
$60,024
Cashflow Range
Notes:
(1) - Per Exhibit VI, Page 1B, Column (11),
(2) - Per Exhibit VI, Page 1C, Column (11),
(3) = (1) + (2).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\Cashflow\CASHFLOW1_SELECTED
8/24/2015 1:21 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT VI
PAGE 1B OF 5
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF PAID LOSS CASH FLOW - FISCAL YEAR 2015/2016
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
EXPECTED CONFIDENCE LEVEL
ACCIDENT
YEARS*
PAID LOSSES
@6/30/2015
(1)
DEVELOPMENT
FACTORS
(2)
PROJECTED
PAID LOSSES
@6/30/2016
(3)
DEV'T METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2015/2016
(4)
SELECTED
ULTIMATE
LOSSES
(5)
EXPECTED %
PAID DURING
2016
(6)
% OF ULTIMATE METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2015/2016
(7)
OTHER THAN FF LOSS
RESERVES
@6/30/2015
(8)
EXPECTED %
PAID DURING
FY 2015/2016
(9)
RESERVE METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2015/2016
(10)
SELECTED
PAID LOSS
CASHFLOW
(11)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
$13
39
105
88
0
21
311
71
352
837
1,509
2,786
3,024
17,204
6,780
16,123
24,674
17,917
26,056
25,809
50,661
77,761
92,400
101,971
111,361
183,435
226,119
224,532
251,113
309,071
299,222
234,993
173,941
148,945
97,048
62,568
61,516
55,162
27,031
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.002
1.002
1.006
1.006
1.006
1.007
1.007
1.008
1.009
1.009
1.011
1.012
1.012
1.012
1.012
1.014
1.014
1.014
1.016
1.016
1.017
1.018
1.020
1.020
1.021
1.022
1.022
1.025
1.026
1.026
1.028
1.030
$13
39
105
88
0
21
311
72
353
842
1,519
2,803
3,045
17,325
6,837
16,268
24,895
18,108
26,359
26,119
51,269
78,690
93,700
103,398
112,972
186,369
229,739
228,445
255,685
315,253
305,193
239,899
177,766
152,230
99,476
64,211
63,142
56,691
27,843
($0)
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
5
10
17
21
121
57
145
221
191
303
310
608
929
1,300
1,427
1,611
2,934
3,620
3,913
4,572
6,182
5,971
4,906
3,825
3,285
2,428
1,643
1,626
1,529
812
$13
39
105
88
$0
21
323
72
356
926
1,538
2,878
3,163
17,995
7,397
18,016
26,779
19,749
28,976
28,653
57,086
89,530
106,363
118,562
131,818
223,972
277,563
284,211
315,156
394,098
418,472
328,404
237,505
213,794
147,206
93,061
96,385
86,166
43,447
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.22%
0.24%
0.58%
0.63%
0.59%
0.68%
0.67%
0.80%
0.85%
0.84%
0.99%
1.07%
1.09%
1.08%
1.06%
1.23%
1.21%
1.23%
1.34%
1.32%
1.41%
1.45%
1.56%
1.52%
1.56%
1.61%
1.58%
1.75%
1.79%
1.75%
1.79%
1.88%
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
5
10
17
21
121
59
154
226
195
309
312
614
948
1,307
1,430
1,619
2,996
3,656
4,006
4,558
6,138
6,376
5,128
3,822
3,376
2,573
1,664
1,690
1,541
817
$0
0
0
0
$0
0
12
0
3
90
29
92
139
790
617
1,893
2,106
1,831
2,919
2,844
6,424
11,769
13,963
16,591
20,456
40,538
51,444
59,679
64,043
85,027
119,250
93,410
63,564
64,850
50,157
30,494
34,869
31,004
16,415
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
52.3%
55.7%
37.6%
26.0%
23.1%
18.7%
18.2%
16.2%
13.8%
13.9%
13.1%
11.8%
10.4%
9.3%
9.7%
8.7%
8.2%
8.2%
7.4%
7.4%
7.0%
7.0%
6.4%
6.2%
6.0%
5.6%
5.8%
5.6%
5.2%
5.0%
5.0%
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
50
11
24
32
148
112
306
290
255
381
335
669
1,095
1,360
1,448
1,669
3,308
3,826
4,399
4,504
5,986
7,684
5,786
3,815
3,606
2,908
1,707
1,815
1,563
827
($0)
(0)
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
20
10
19
25
130
76
202
246
213
331
319
630
991
1,322
1,435
1,633
3,080
3,701
4,106
4,544
6,102
6,677
5,273
3,821
3,423
2,636
1,671
1,711
1,544
818
TOTAL
$2,932,571
$2,987,093
$54,522
$3,819,886
$55,692
$887,315
$59,923
$56,712
Notes:
(1)- Per FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND.
(2), (6), and (9)- Per Fund's historical loss development factors
(3) = (1) x (2); (7) = (5) x (6); (10) = (8) x (9).
(4) = (3) - (1).
(5) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (7) + paid losses from Exhibit I, Page 3, Column (1).
(8) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (7).
(11) - Selected from Columns (4), (7), and (10).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\Cashflow\CASHFLOW1_Other than FF
8/24/2015 1:21 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT VI
PAGE 1C OF 5
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF PAID LOSS CASH FLOW - FISCAL YEAR 2015/2016
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
EXPECTED CONFIDENCE LEVEL
ACCIDENT
YEARS*
PAID LOSSES
@6/30/2015
(1)
DEVELOPMENT
FACTORS
(2)
PROJECTED
PAID LOSSES
@6/30/2016
(3)
DEV'T METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2015/2016
(4)
SELECTED
ULTIMATE
LOSSES
(5)
EXPECTED %
PAID DURING
2016
(6)
% OF ULTIMATE METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2015/2016
(7)
FF LOSS
RESERVES
@6/30/2015
(8)
EXPECTED %
PAID DURING
FY 2015/2016
(9)
RESERVE METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2015/2016
(10)
SELECTED
PAID LOSS
CASHFLOW
(11)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
43,991
57,828
82,095
90,538
79,503
101,195
107,085
77,598
44,587
40,987
41,734
17,871
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.001
1.001
1.001
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
43,991
57,828
82,095
90,538
79,503
101,195
107,085
77,598
44,587
41,023
41,776
17,889
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
36
42
18
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
43,991
57,828
82,095
90,538
79,503
101,195
107,085
77,598
44,587
41,027
41,814
17,923
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.09%
0.10%
0.10%
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
36
42
18
$0
0
0
0
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
40
80
52
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
53.3%
34.7%
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
40
43
18
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(0)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(0)
(0)
(0)
0
(0)
0
0
0
0
(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)
0
0
0
(0)
37
42
18
TOTAL
$864,529
$864,625
$96
$864,701
$96
$173
$101
$98
Notes:
(1)- Per FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND.
(2), (6), and (9)- Per Fund's historical loss development factors
(3) = (1) x (2); (7) = (5) x (6); (10) = (8) x (9).
(4) = (3) - (1).
(5) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (6) + paid losses from Exhibit I, Page 2, Column (1).
(8) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (6).
(11) - Selected from Columns (4), (7), and (10).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\Cashflow\CASHFLOW1_FF
8/24/2015 1:21 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT VI
PAGE 2A OF 5
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF PAID LOSS CASH FLOW - FISCAL YEAR 2016/2017
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
SELECTED PAID LOSS CASHFLOW - ALL CLAIMS
EXPECTED CONFIDENCE LEVEL
ACCIDENT
YEARS*
PAID LOSS CASHFLOW
FIRST AND FINAL
OTHER THAN
CLAIMS
FIRST AND FINAL
(1)
(2)
PROJECTED
CASHFLOW
(3)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
51
21
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
8
9
21
21
131
64
190
249
182
306
312
638
1,006
1,140
1,462
1,604
2,828
3,758
3,837
4,429
5,665
6,826
5,146
3,707
3,488
2,382
1,634
1,744
1,514
778
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
8
9
21
21
131
64
190
249
182
306
312
638
1,006
1,140
1,462
1,604
2,828
3,758
3,837
4,429
5,665
6,826
5,146
3,707
3,488
2,382
1,634
1,744
1,565
800
TOTAL
$72
$55,082
$55,155
Minimum
Maximum
$52,996
$58,319
Cashflow Range
Notes:
(1) - Per Exhibit VI, Page 1B, Column (11),
(2) - Per Exhibit VI, Page 1C, Column (11),
(3) = (1) + (2).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\Cashflow\CASHFLOW2_SELECTED
8/24/2015 1:21 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT VI
PAGE 2B OF 5
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF PAID LOSS CASH FLOW - FISCAL YEAR 2016/2017
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
EXPECTED CONFIDENCE LEVEL
PROJECTED
ACCIDENT
PAID LOSSES DEVELOPMENT
YEARS*
@6/30/2016
FACTORS
(1)
(2)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
$13
39
105
88
0
21
311
72
353
842
1,519
2,803
3,045
17,325
6,837
16,268
24,895
18,108
26,359
26,119
51,269
78,690
93,700
103,398
112,972
186,369
229,739
228,445
255,685
315,253
305,193
239,899
177,766
152,230
99,476
64,211
63,142
56,691
27,843
TOTAL
$2,987,093
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.002
1.002
1.006
1.006
1.006
1.007
1.007
1.008
1.009
1.009
1.011
1.012
1.012
1.012
1.012
1.014
1.014
1.014
1.016
1.016
1.017
1.018
1.020
1.020
1.021
1.022
1.022
1.025
1.026
1.026
1.028
PROJECTED
PAID LOSSES
@6/30/2017
(3)
DEV'T METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2016/2017
(4)
SELECTED
ULTIMATE
LOSSES
(5)
EXPECTED %
PAID DURING
2017
(6)
$13
39
105
88
0
21
311
72
354
844
1,528
2,821
3,063
17,446
6,885
16,405
25,119
18,271
26,639
26,422
51,884
79,634
94,820
104,853
114,554
189,064
233,415
232,102
260,140
320,992
311,297
244,686
181,477
155,578
101,670
65,818
64,800
58,190
28,615
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
9
18
18
121
48
137
224
163
280
303
615
944
1,120
1,455
1,582
2,695
3,676
3,657
4,455
5,739
6,104
4,787
3,711
3,348
2,194
1,607
1,658
1,499
772
$13
39
105
88
0
21
323
72
356
926
1,538
2,878
3,163
17,995
7,397
18,016
26,779
19,749
28,976
28,653
57,086
89,530
106,363
118,562
131,818
223,972
277,563
284,211
315,156
394,098
418,472
328,404
237,505
213,794
147,206
93,061
96,385
86,166
43,447
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.22%
0.24%
0.58%
0.63%
0.59%
0.68%
0.67%
0.80%
0.85%
0.84%
0.99%
1.07%
1.09%
1.08%
1.06%
1.23%
1.21%
1.23%
1.34%
1.32%
1.41%
1.45%
1.56%
1.52%
1.56%
1.61%
1.58%
1.75%
1.79%
1.75%
1.79%
$3,040,035
$52,942
$3,819,886
% OF ULTIMATE METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2016/2017
(7)
OTHER THAN FF LOSS
RESERVES
@6/30/2015
(8)
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
9
18
19
122
50
145
228
166
286
306
622
963
1,127
1,457
1,590
2,751
3,713
3,744
4,442
5,699
6,518
5,004
3,708
3,441
2,325
1,627
1,723
1,511
777
$0
0
0
0
0
0
12
0
3
90
29
92
139
790
617
1,893
2,106
1,831
2,919
2,844
6,424
11,769
13,963
16,591
20,456
40,538
51,444
59,679
64,043
85,027
119,250
93,410
63,564
64,850
50,157
30,494
34,869
31,004
16,415
$54,093
$887,315
Notes:
(1)- Exhibit VI, Page 1B, Column (3).
(2), (6), and (9)- Per Fund's historical loss development factors
(3) = (1) x (2); (7) = (5) x (6); (10) = (8) x (9).
(4) = (3) - (1).
(5) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (7) + paid losses from Exhibit I, Page 3, Column (1).
(8) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (7).
(11) - Selected from Columns (4), (7), and (10).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\Cashflow\CASHFLOW2_Other than FF
8/25/2015 2:56 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXPECTED %
PAID DURING
FY 2016/2017
(9)
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
47.7%
23.2%
34.7%
27.8%
20.0%
18.8%
15.3%
15.3%
13.9%
11.9%
12.1%
11.5%
10.5%
9.4%
8.4%
8.9%
8.0%
7.5%
7.6%
6.9%
6.9%
6.5%
6.6%
6.0%
5.8%
5.7%
5.2%
5.5%
5.3%
4.9%
4.8%
RESERVE METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2016/2017
(10)
SELECTED
PAID LOSS
CASHFLOW
(11)
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
21
10
26
28
149
94
289
294
217
353
328
677
1,112
1,172
1,475
1,639
3,038
3,886
4,112
4,389
5,558
7,855
5,646
3,701
3,675
2,628
1,669
1,850
1,533
786
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
8
9
21
21
131
64
190
249
182
306
312
638
1,006
1,140
1,462
1,604
2,828
3,758
3,837
4,429
5,665
6,826
5,146
3,707
3,488
2,382
1,634
1,744
1,514
778
$58,211
$55,082
EXHIBIT VI
PAGE 2C OF 5
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF PAID LOSS CASH FLOW - FISCAL YEAR 2016/2017
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
EXPECTED CONFIDENCE LEVEL
PROJECTED
ACCIDENT
PAID LOSSES
DEVELOPMENT
YEARS*
@6/30/2016
FACTORS
(1)
(2)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
43,991
57,828
82,095
90,538
79,503
101,195
107,085
77,598
44,587
41,023
41,776
17,889
TOTAL
$864,625
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.001
1.001
PROJECTED
PAID LOSSES
@6/30/2017
(3)
DEV'T METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2016/2017
(4)
SELECTED
ULTIMATE
LOSSES
(5)
EXPECTED %
PAID DURING
2017
(6)
% OF ULTIMATE METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2016/2017
(7)
FF LOSS
RESERVES
@6/30/2015
(8)
EXPECTED %
PAID DURING
FY 2016/2017
(9)
RESERVE METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2016/2017
(10)
SELECTED
PAID LOSS
CASHFLOW
(11)
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
43,991
57,828
82,095
90,538
79,503
101,195
107,085
77,598
44,587
41,023
41,813
17,907
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
18
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
43,991
57,828
82,095
90,538
79,503
101,195
107,085
77,598
44,587
41,027
41,814
17,923
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.09%
0.10%
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
18
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
40
80
52
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
53.3%
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
80
28
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
51
21
$864,680
$55
$864,701
$54
$173
$108
$72
Notes:
(1)- Exhibit VI, Page 1C, Column (3).
(2), (6), and (9)- Per Fund's historical loss development factors
(3) = (1) x (2); (7) = (5) x (6); (10) = (8) x (9).
(4) = (3) - (1).
(5) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (6) + paid losses from Exhibit I, Page 2, Column (1).
(8) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (6).
(11) - Selected from Columns (4), (7), and (10).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\Cashflow\CASHFLOW2_FF
8/24/2015 1:21 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT VI
PAGE 3A OF 5
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF PAID LOSS CASH FLOW - FISCAL YEAR 2017/2018
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
SELECTED PAID LOSS CASHFLOW - ALL CLAIMS
EXPECTED CONFIDENCE LEVEL
ACCIDENT
YEARS*
PAID LOSS CASHFLOW
FIRST AND FINAL
OTHER THAN
CLAIMS
FIRST AND FINAL
(1)
(2)
PROJECTED
CASHFLOW
(3)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
19
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
4
19
23
113
64
160
234
184
262
289
625
1,019
1,158
1,260
1,634
2,778
3,451
3,897
4,139
5,521
6,337
5,260
3,618
3,384
2,428
1,477
1,705
1,544
763
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
4
19
23
113
64
160
234
184
262
289
625
1,019
1,158
1,260
1,634
2,778
3,451
3,897
4,139
5,521
6,337
5,260
3,618
3,384
2,428
1,477
1,705
1,544
782
TOTAL
$19
$53,357
$53,375
Minimum
Maximum
$51,301
$56,406
Cashflow Range
Notes:
(1) - Per Exhibit VI, Page 1B, Column (11),
(2) - Per Exhibit VI, Page 1C, Column (11),
(3) = (1) + (2).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\Cashflow\CASHFLOW3_SELECTED
8/24/2015 1:21 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT VI
PAGE 3B OF 5
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF PAID LOSS CASH FLOW - FISCAL YEAR 2017/2018
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
EXPECTED CONFIDENCE LEVEL
PROJECTED
ACCIDENT
PAID LOSSES DEVELOPMENT
YEARS*
@6/30/2017
FACTORS
(1)
(2)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
$13
39
105
88
0
21
311
72
354
844
1,528
2,821
3,063
17,446
6,885
16,405
25,119
18,271
26,639
26,422
51,884
79,634
94,820
104,853
114,554
189,064
233,415
232,102
260,140
320,992
311,297
244,686
181,477
155,578
101,670
65,818
64,800
58,190
28,615
TOTAL
$3,040,035
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.002
1.002
1.006
1.006
1.006
1.007
1.007
1.008
1.009
1.009
1.011
1.012
1.012
1.012
1.012
1.014
1.014
1.014
1.016
1.016
1.017
1.018
1.020
1.020
1.021
1.022
1.022
1.025
1.026
1.026
PROJECTED
PAID LOSSES
@6/30/2018
(3)
DEV'T METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2017/2018
(4)
SELECTED
ULTIMATE
LOSSES
(5)
EXPECTED %
PAID DURING
2018
(6)
$13
39
105
88
0
21
311
72
354
846
1,532
2,838
3,083
17,551
6,933
16,520
25,330
18,435
26,878
26,703
52,487
80,590
95,958
106,106
116,165
191,711
236,790
235,816
264,304
326,585
316,964
249,580
185,099
158,826
103,906
67,270
66,421
59,718
29,372
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
4
17
20
105
48
115
211
164
239
281
603
956
1,138
1,253
1,611
2,647
3,375
3,714
4,164
5,593
5,667
4,894
3,622
3,248
2,236
1,452
1,621
1,528
757
$13
39
105
88
0
21
323
72
356
926
1,538
2,878
3,163
17,995
7,397
18,016
26,779
19,749
28,976
28,653
57,086
89,530
106,363
118,562
131,818
223,972
277,563
284,211
315,156
394,098
418,472
328,404
237,505
213,794
147,206
93,061
96,385
86,166
43,447
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.22%
0.24%
0.58%
0.63%
0.59%
0.68%
0.67%
0.80%
0.85%
0.84%
0.99%
1.07%
1.09%
1.08%
1.06%
1.23%
1.21%
1.23%
1.34%
1.32%
1.41%
1.45%
1.56%
1.52%
1.56%
1.61%
1.58%
1.75%
1.79%
1.75%
$3,091,320
$51,285
$3,819,886
% OF ULTIMATE METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2017/2018
(7)
OTHER THAN FF LOSS
RESERVES
@6/30/2015
(8)
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
4
17
20
106
50
122
215
168
244
283
609
975
1,144
1,256
1,620
2,702
3,409
3,802
4,151
5,554
6,052
5,115
3,619
3,338
2,369
1,470
1,685
1,540
762
$0
0
0
0
0
0
12
0
3
90
29
92
139
790
617
1,893
2,106
1,831
2,919
2,844
6,424
11,769
13,963
16,591
20,456
40,538
51,444
59,679
64,043
85,027
119,250
93,410
63,564
64,850
50,157
30,494
34,869
31,004
16,415
$52,403
$887,315
Notes:
(1)- Exhibit VI, Page 2B, Column (3).
(2), (6), and (9)- Per Fund's historical loss development factors
(3) = (1) x (2); (7) = (5) x (6); (10) = (8) x (9).
(4) = (3) - (1).
(5) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (7) + paid losses from Exhibit I, Page 3, Column (1).
(8) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (7).
(11) - Selected from Columns (4), (7), and (10).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\Cashflow\CASHFLOW3_Other than FF
8/25/2015 2:57 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXPECTED %
PAID DURING
FY 2017/2018
(9)
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
21.1%
14.5%
25.7%
21.4%
16.2%
15.4%
12.8%
13.2%
12.0%
10.3%
10.7%
10.3%
9.6%
8.5%
7.7%
8.2%
7.4%
6.9%
7.0%
6.4%
6.4%
6.1%
6.2%
5.7%
5.5%
5.3%
4.9%
5.2%
5.0%
4.7%
RESERVE METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2017/2018
(10)
SELECTED
PAID LOSS
CASHFLOW
(11)
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
19
4
24
30
128
95
242
277
220
301
303
664
1,125
1,191
1,271
1,670
2,984
3,568
4,176
4,102
5,417
7,293
5,772
3,612
3,566
2,678
1,508
1,809
1,562
771
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
4
19
23
113
64
160
234
184
262
289
625
1,019
1,158
1,260
1,634
2,778
3,451
3,897
4,139
5,521
6,337
5,260
3,618
3,384
2,428
1,477
1,705
1,544
763
$56,381
$53,357
EXHIBIT VI
PAGE 3C OF 5
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF PAID LOSS CASH FLOW - FISCAL YEAR 2017/2018
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
EXPECTED CONFIDENCE LEVEL
PROJECTED
ACCIDENT
PAID LOSSES
DEVELOPMENT
YEARS*
@6/30/2017
FACTORS
(1)
(2)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
43,991
57,828
82,095
90,538
79,503
101,195
107,085
77,598
44,587
41,023
41,813
17,907
TOTAL
$864,680
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.001
PROJECTED
PAID LOSSES
@6/30/2018
(3)
DEV'T METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2017/2018
(4)
SELECTED
ULTIMATE
LOSSES
(5)
EXPECTED %
PAID DURING
2018
(6)
% OF ULTIMATE METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2017/2018
(7)
FF LOSS
RESERVES
@6/30/2015
(8)
EXPECTED %
PAID DURING
FY 2017/2018
(9)
RESERVE METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2017/2018
(10)
SELECTED
PAID LOSS
CASHFLOW
(11)
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
43,991
57,828
82,095
90,538
79,503
101,195
107,085
77,598
44,587
41,023
41,813
17,923
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
16
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
43,991
57,828
82,095
90,538
79,503
101,195
107,085
77,598
44,587
41,027
41,814
17,923
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.09%
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
16
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
40
80
52
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
46.7%
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
24
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
19
$864,696
$16
$864,701
$16
$173
$24
$19
Notes:
(1)- Exhibit VI, Page 2C, Column (3).
(2), (6), and (9)- Per Fund's historical loss development factors
(3) = (1) x (2); (7) = (5) x (6); (10) = (8) x (9).
(4) = (3) - (1).
(5) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (6) + paid losses from Exhibit I, Page 2, Column (1).
(8) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (6).
(11) - Selected from Columns (4), (7), and (10).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\Cashflow\CASHFLOW3_FF
8/24/2015 1:21 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT VI
PAGE 4A OF 5
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF PAID LOSS CASH FLOW - FISCAL YEAR 2018/2019
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
SELECTED PAID LOSS CASHFLOW - ALL CLAIMS
EXPECTED CONFIDENCE LEVEL
ACCIDENT
YEARS*
PAID LOSS CASHFLOW
FIRST AND FINAL
OTHER THAN
CLAIMS
FIRST AND FINAL
(1)
(2)
PROJECTED
CASHFLOW
(3)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
8
21
121
56
161
197
174
265
247
578
998
1,171
1,280
1,408
2,830
3,389
3,578
4,204
5,161
6,176
4,884
3,698
3,302
2,355
1,505
1,541
1,509
778
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
8
21
121
56
161
197
174
265
247
578
998
1,171
1,280
1,408
2,830
3,389
3,578
4,204
5,161
6,176
4,884
3,698
3,302
2,355
1,505
1,541
1,509
778
TOTAL
$0
$51,598
$51,598
Minimum
Maximum
$49,615
$54,489
Cashflow Range
Notes:
(1) - Per Exhibit VI, Page 1B, Column (11),
(2) - Per Exhibit VI, Page 1C, Column (11),
(3) = (1) + (2).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\Cashflow\CASHFLOW4_SELECTED
8/24/2015 1:21 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT VI
PAGE 4B OF 5
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF PAID LOSS CASH FLOW - FISCAL YEAR 2018/2019
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
EXPECTED CONFIDENCE LEVEL
PROJECTED
ACCIDENT
PAID LOSSES
DEVELOPMENT
YEARS*
@6/30/2018
FACTORS
(1)
(2)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
$13
39
105
88
0
21
311
72
354
846
1,532
2,838
3,083
17,551
6,933
16,520
25,330
18,435
26,878
26,703
52,487
80,590
95,958
106,106
116,165
191,711
236,790
235,816
264,304
326,585
316,964
249,580
185,099
158,826
103,906
67,270
66,421
59,718
29,372
TOTAL
$3,091,320
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.002
1.002
1.006
1.006
1.006
1.007
1.007
1.008
1.009
1.009
1.011
1.012
1.012
1.012
1.012
1.014
1.014
1.014
1.016
1.016
1.017
1.018
1.020
1.020
1.021
1.022
1.022
1.025
1.026
PROJECTED
PAID LOSSES
@6/30/2019
(3)
DEV'T METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2018/2019
(4)
SELECTED
ULTIMATE
LOSSES
(5)
EXPECTED %
PAID DURING
2019
(6)
% OF ULTIMATE METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2018/2019
(7)
OTHER THAN FF LOSS
RESERVES
@6/30/2015
(8)
EXPECTED %
PAID DURING
FY 2018/2019
(9)
RESERVE METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2018/2019
(10)
SELECTED
PAID LOSS
CASHFLOW
(11)
$13
39
105
88
0
21
311
72
354
846
1,535
2,845
3,101
17,663
6,975
16,636
25,507
18,590
27,120
26,943
53,045
81,526
97,109
107,379
117,554
194,408
240,105
239,226
268,533
331,813
322,487
254,124
188,801
161,996
106,075
68,749
67,886
61,212
30,143
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
7
18
112
42
116
177
155
242
240
558
936
1,151
1,273
1,389
2,697
3,315
3,410
4,229
5,228
5,523
4,544
3,702
3,170
2,169
1,479
1,465
1,494
771
$13
39
105
88
0
21
323
72
356
926
1,538
2,878
3,163
17,995
7,397
18,016
26,779
19,749
28,976
28,653
57,086
89,530
106,363
118,562
131,818
223,972
277,563
284,211
315,156
394,098
418,472
328,404
237,505
213,794
147,206
93,061
96,385
86,166
43,447
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.22%
0.24%
0.58%
0.63%
0.59%
0.68%
0.67%
0.80%
0.85%
0.84%
0.99%
1.07%
1.09%
1.08%
1.06%
1.23%
1.21%
1.23%
1.34%
1.32%
1.41%
1.45%
1.56%
1.52%
1.56%
1.61%
1.58%
1.75%
1.79%
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
7
18
113
43
122
181
159
247
242
563
955
1,158
1,276
1,396
2,753
3,349
3,491
4,216
5,191
5,898
4,749
3,699
3,258
2,299
1,498
1,522
1,506
777
$0
0
0
0
0
0
12
0
3
90
29
92
139
790
617
1,893
2,106
1,831
2,919
2,844
6,424
11,769
13,963
16,591
20,456
40,538
51,444
59,679
64,043
85,027
119,250
93,410
63,564
64,850
50,157
30,494
34,869
31,004
16,415
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
13.2%
10.7%
19.8%
17.4%
13.3%
12.9%
11.0%
11.3%
10.4%
9.1%
9.6%
9.4%
8.6%
7.8%
7.0%
7.5%
6.8%
6.4%
6.5%
6.0%
6.0%
5.7%
5.8%
5.4%
5.2%
5.0%
4.7%
4.9%
4.8%
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
10
27
138
82
244
232
207
305
259
614
1,103
1,205
1,291
1,439
3,040
3,505
3,834
4,166
5,063
7,108
5,359
3,692
3,480
2,598
1,537
1,635
1,528
786
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
8
21
121
56
161
197
174
265
247
578
998
1,171
1,280
1,408
2,830
3,389
3,578
4,204
5,161
6,176
4,884
3,698
3,302
2,355
1,505
1,541
1,509
778
$3,140,935
$49,615
$3,819,886
$50,689
$887,315
$54,489
$51,598
Notes:
(1)- Exhibit VI, Page 3B, Column (3).
(2), (6), and (9)- Per Fund's historical loss development factors
(3) = (1) x (2); (7) = (5) x (6); (10) = (8) x (9).
(4) = (3) - (1).
(5) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (7) + paid losses from Exhibit I, Page 3, Column (1).
(8) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (7).
(11) - Selected from Columns (4), (7), and (10).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\Cashflow\CASHFLOW4_Other than FF
8/24/2015 1:21 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT VI
PAGE 4C OF 5
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF PAID LOSS CASH FLOW - FISCAL YEAR 2018/2019
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
EXPECTED CONFIDENCE LEVEL
PROJECTED
ACCIDENT
PAID LOSSES
DEVELOPMENT
YEARS*
@6/30/2018
FACTORS
(1)
(2)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
43,991
57,828
82,095
90,538
79,503
101,195
107,085
77,598
44,587
41,023
41,813
17,923
TOTAL
$864,696
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
PROJECTED
PAID LOSSES
@6/30/2019
(3)
DEV'T METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2018/2019
(4)
SELECTED
ULTIMATE
LOSSES
(5)
EXPECTED %
PAID DURING
2019
(6)
% OF ULTIMATE METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2018/2019
(7)
FF LOSS
RESERVES
@6/30/2015
(8)
EXPECTED %
PAID DURING
FY 2018/2019
(9)
RESERVE METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2018/2019
(10)
SELECTED
PAID LOSS
CASHFLOW
(11)
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
43,991
57,828
82,095
90,538
79,503
101,195
107,085
77,598
44,587
41,023
41,813
17,923
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
43,991
57,828
82,095
90,538
79,503
101,195
107,085
77,598
44,587
41,027
41,814
17,923
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
40
80
52
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
$864,696
$0
$864,701
$0
$173
$0
$0
Notes:
(1)- Exhibit VI, Page 3C, Column (3).
(2), (6), and (9)- Per Fund's historical loss development factors
(3) = (1) x (2); (7) = (5) x (6); (10) = (8) x (9).
(4) = (3) - (1).
(5) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (6) + paid losses from Exhibit I, Page 2, Column (1).
(8) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (6).
(11) - Selected from Columns (4), (7), and (10).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\Cashflow\CASHFLOW4_FF
8/24/2015 1:21 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT VI
PAGE 5A OF 5
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF PAID LOSS CASH FLOW - FISCAL YEAR 2019/2020
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
SELECTED PAID LOSS CASHFLOW - ALL CLAIMS
EXPECTED CONFIDENCE LEVEL
ACCIDENT
YEARS*
PAID LOSS CASHFLOW
FIRST AND FINAL
OTHER THAN
CLAIMS
FIRST AND FINAL
(1)
(2)
PROJECTED
CASHFLOW
(3)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
9
112
60
139
198
146
250
249
494
923
1,148
1,296
1,431
2,439
3,454
3,515
3,860
5,241
5,772
4,760
3,433
3,376
2,298
1,460
1,570
1,364
760
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
9
112
60
139
198
146
250
249
494
923
1,148
1,296
1,431
2,439
3,454
3,515
3,860
5,241
5,772
4,760
3,433
3,376
2,298
1,460
1,570
1,364
760
TOTAL
$0
$49,761
$49,761
Minimum
Maximum
$47,871
$52,511
Cashflow Range
Notes:
(1) - Per Exhibit VI, Page 1B, Column (11),
(2) - Per Exhibit VI, Page 1C, Column (11),
(3) = (1) + (2).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\Cashflow\CASHFLOW5_SELECTED
8/31/2015 10:50 AM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT VI
PAGE 5B OF 5
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF PAID LOSS CASH FLOW - FISCAL YEAR 2019/2020
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
OTHER THAN FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
EXPECTED CONFIDENCE LEVEL
PROJECTED
ACCIDENT
PAID LOSSES
DEVELOPMENT
YEARS*
@6/30/2019
FACTORS
(1)
(2)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
$13
39
105
88
0
21
311
72
354
846
1,535
2,845
3,101
17,663
6,975
16,636
25,507
18,590
27,120
26,943
53,045
81,526
97,109
107,379
117,554
194,408
240,105
239,226
268,533
331,813
322,487
254,124
188,801
161,996
106,075
68,749
67,886
61,212
30,143
TOTAL
$3,140,935
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.002
1.002
1.006
1.006
1.006
1.007
1.007
1.008
1.009
1.009
1.011
1.012
1.012
1.012
1.012
1.014
1.014
1.014
1.016
1.016
1.017
1.018
1.020
1.020
1.021
1.022
1.022
1.025
PROJECTED
PAID LOSSES
@6/30/2020
(3)
DEV'T METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2019/2020
(4)
SELECTED
ULTIMATE
LOSSES
(5)
EXPECTED %
PAID DURING
2020
(6)
% OF ULTIMATE METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2019/2020
(7)
OTHER THAN FF LOSS
RESERVES
@6/30/2015
(8)
EXPECTED %
PAID DURING
FY 2019/2020
(9)
RESERVE METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2019/2020
(10)
SELECTED
PAID LOSS
CASHFLOW
(11)
$13
39
105
88
0
21
311
72
354
846
1,535
2,851
3,109
17,767
7,020
16,736
25,686
18,720
27,348
27,185
53,521
82,392
98,237
108,668
118,965
196,732
243,483
242,575
272,416
337,122
327,649
258,552
192,238
165,236
108,192
70,184
69,379
62,562
30,897
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
8
104
45
100
179
130
228
242
476
866
1,128
1,289
1,411
2,324
3,378
3,349
3,883
5,309
5,162
4,428
3,437
3,240
2,117
1,435
1,493
1,350
754
$13
39
105
88
0
21
323
72
356
926
1,538
2,878
3,163
17,995
7,397
18,016
26,779
19,749
28,976
28,653
57,086
89,530
106,363
118,562
131,818
223,972
277,563
284,211
315,156
394,098
418,472
328,404
237,505
213,794
147,206
93,061
96,385
86,166
43,447
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.22%
0.24%
0.58%
0.63%
0.59%
0.68%
0.67%
0.80%
0.85%
0.84%
0.99%
1.07%
1.09%
1.08%
1.06%
1.23%
1.21%
1.23%
1.34%
1.32%
1.41%
1.45%
1.56%
1.52%
1.56%
1.61%
1.58%
1.75%
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
8
105
46
106
182
133
233
244
481
884
1,135
1,291
1,418
2,372
3,412
3,429
3,871
5,272
5,512
4,628
3,435
3,330
2,243
1,453
1,551
1,361
759
$0
0
0
0
0
0
12
0
3
90
29
92
139
790
617
1,893
2,106
1,831
2,919
2,844
6,424
11,769
13,963
16,591
20,456
40,538
51,444
59,679
64,043
85,027
119,250
93,410
63,564
64,850
50,157
30,494
34,869
31,004
16,415
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
9.8%
8.2%
16.1%
14.2%
11.1%
11.1%
9.5%
9.8%
9.2%
8.2%
8.7%
8.5%
7.9%
7.1%
6.5%
6.9%
6.3%
6.0%
6.0%
5.6%
5.6%
5.4%
5.5%
5.1%
4.9%
4.8%
4.5%
4.7%
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9
11
127
88
211
234
174
288
262
524
1,020
1,181
1,307
1,462
2,620
3,571
3,766
3,825
5,142
6,643
5,223
3,428
3,557
2,535
1,491
1,666
1,380
768
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
9
112
60
139
198
146
250
249
494
923
1,148
1,296
1,431
2,439
3,454
3,515
3,860
5,241
5,772
4,760
3,433
3,376
2,298
1,460
1,570
1,364
760
$3,188,806
$47,871
$3,819,886
$48,901
$887,315
$52,511
$49,761
Notes:
(1)- Exhibit VI, Page 4B, Column (3).
(2), (6), and (9)- Per Fund's historical loss development factors
(3) = (1) x (2); (7) = (5) x (6); (10) = (8) x (9).
(4) = (3) - (1).
(5) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (7) + paid losses from Exhibit I, Page 3, Column (1).
(8) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (7).
(11) - Selected from Columns (4), (7), and (10).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\Cashflow\CASHFLOW5_Other than FF
8/24/2015 1:21 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT VI
PAGE 5C OF 5
FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND
ACTUARIAL REVIEW
AS OF JUNE 30, 2015
CALCULATION OF PAID LOSS CASH FLOW - FISCAL YEAR 2019/2020
WORKERS' COMPENSATION
($AMTS IN THOUSANDS)
FIRST AND FINAL CLAIMS
EXPECTED CONFIDENCE LEVEL
PROJECTED
ACCIDENT
PAID LOSSES
DEVELOPMENT
YEARS*
@6/30/2019
FACTORS
(1)
(2)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
43,991
57,828
82,095
90,538
79,503
101,195
107,085
77,598
44,587
41,023
41,813
17,923
TOTAL
$864,696
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
PROJECTED
PAID LOSSES
@6/30/2020
(3)
DEV'T METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2019/2020
(4)
SELECTED
ULTIMATE
LOSSES
(5)
EXPECTED %
PAID DURING
2020
(6)
% OF ULTIMATE METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2019/2020
(7)
FF LOSS
RESERVES
@6/30/2015
(8)
EXPECTED %
PAID DURING
FY 2019/2020
(9)
RESERVE METHOD
PROJECTED CASHFLOW
FY 2019/2020
(10)
SELECTED
PAID LOSS
CASHFLOW
(11)
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
43,991
57,828
82,095
90,538
79,503
101,195
107,085
77,598
44,587
41,023
41,813
17,923
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
343
0
0
0
7
0
4
4
39
24
135
3,089
1,707
5,867
2,891
5,623
19,142
40,642
43,991
57,828
82,095
90,538
79,503
101,195
107,085
77,598
44,587
41,027
41,814
17,923
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
40
80
52
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
$864,696
$0
$864,701
$0
$173
$0
$0
Notes:
(1)- Per FLORIDA SPECIAL DISABILITY TRUST FUND.
(2), (6), and (9)- Per Fund's historical loss development factors
(3) = (1) x (2); (7) = (5) x (6); (10) = (8) x (9).
(4) = (3) - (1).
(5) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (6) + paid losses from Exhibit I, Page 2, Column (1).
(8) - Per Summary Exhibit, Page 2, Column (6).
(11) - Selected from Columns (4), (7), and (10).
*Accident years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
Except for AY 1998 which is a 6-month period covering 7/1/1997-12/31/1997.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\Cashflow\CASHFLOW5_FF
8/24/2015 1:21 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
IV. GLOSSARY OF TERMS
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
Glossary of Terms
Accident
Year
Discount
Reserve
Expected
Loss
Attributing to a given year the total cost of losses which occur in that year.
The present value, calculated at selected interest rates and payout patterns, of
the payment of outstanding losses.
Exposures multiplied by the loss rate.
Exposure
Extent of risk and/or possibility of loss (for workers' compensation the
exposure is payroll).
IBNR
Reserve
Loss
Adjustment
Expenses
(LAE)
Loss
Development
Reserve for claims incurred but not reported and for future changes to the case
reserves.
Loss adjustment expenses may be broken down into: Allocated and
Unallocated loss adjustment expenses (ALAE and ULAE). ALAE expenses are
expenses (other than in-house administrative) for claims handling which can be
identified as pertaining to a specific claim (such as outside legal expense).
ULAE expenses are general administrative expenses such as salaries of
employees.
Refer to the increase in number of claims, paid and incurred losses from a given
accident year. The number of claims “develop” because in some cases,
significant delay in the reporting losses occurs. Paid losses “develop” because
claims are paid over several years. Incurred losses “develop” because of the
increase in reported claims and because initial reserves tend to be inadequate at
settlement.
Glossary of Terms
(continued)
Loss
Development
Method
(LDM)
Methods under which historical claim data are recorded and used to estimate
the future development of existing claims. Loss development is the change in
value of a body of claims from one valuation date to another valuation date.
Paid Loss
Amount paid on open and closed claims.
Loss
Rate
Ultimate
Loss
The value of losses per unit of exposure.
The incurred loss plus the IBNR reserve. The ultimate loss is the estimate of the
total cost to settle all claims in the accident year.
O:\State of Florida Dept of Financial Services\Disability Trust Fund\2015\GLOSSARY.doc
Page 2