DukeSummerInstitute2012
TheEmergenceofModernEconomics
June10–22,2012
DetailedschedulefortheDukeSummerInstitute:
Thereare2sessionsaday,MondaythroughThursday,andonemorningsessionon
Friday.Themorningsessionsarefrom9:30amto11:30amandtheafternoon
sessionsarefrom2:00pmto4pm.Therewillbeashortbreak(5‐10minutes)half
waythrougheachsession.
Sunday,June10
2–6p.m.ParticipantsarriveandregisteratDormitoryonWestCampus
6:30pmWelcomeBarbecue,CenterfortheHistoryofPoliticalEconomy,SocialScience
Suite07
Monday,June11
Session1‐IntroductionsandTimeLine–BruceCaldwellandMarcelBoumans
Session2‐TheAustrianSchoolandItsOpponents‐BruceCaldwell
RequiredReading:
BruceCaldwell,Hayek’sChallenge(henceforthHC),Chapter1,pp.17‐27;Chapter3,pp.64‐
74,Chapters4and5,complete.
SupplementaryReading:
TherestofChapters1–5ofHC,andAppendixA.
7:05pmDurhamBullsversusToledoMudHens,DurhamBullsStadium‐complimentary
tickets
Tuesday,June12
Session3‐AmericanInstitutionalismintheInterwarPeriod:AnOverview–Malcolm
Rutherford
RequiredReading:
MalcolmRutherford.2011.TheInstitutionalistMovementinAmericanEconomics,1918‐
1947:ScienceandSocialControl.Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,Chapters1and2.
SupplementaryReading:
Hamilton,WaltonH.1919a.TheInstitutionalApproachtoEconomicTheory.American
EconomicReview9(March):309‐318.
Mitchell,WesleyC.1925.QuantitativeAnalysisinEconomicTheory.AmericanEconomic
Review15(March):1‐12.
Clark,JohnM.1926.SocialControlofBusiness.Chicago:UniversityofChicagoPress,
Chapter3.
Edie,Lionel.1927.SomePositiveContributionsoftheInstitutionalConcept.Quarterly
JournalofEconomics41(May):405‐440.
Session4–EarlyMetrics–MarcelBoumans
RequiredReading:
AugustinCournot[1897]1927.ResearchesintotheMathematicalPrinciplesoftheTheoryof
Wealth.NewYork:Macmillan.TranslatedbyNathanielBaconof1838.Recherchessurles
PrincipesMathématiquedelaThéoryRichesses,pp.1‐5.
WilliamStanleyJevons1866.BriefAccountofaGeneralMathematicalTheoryofPolitical
Economy.JournaloftheStatisticalSocietyofLondon29(2):282‐287.
IrvingFisher[1892]1925.AppendixIII.TheUtilityandHistoryofMathematicalMethodin
Economics.MathematicalInvestigationsintheTheoryofValueandPrices.NewHaven:Yale
UniversityPress,pp.106‐19.
I.Fisher[1911]ChapterIIPurchasingPowerofMoneyasRelatedtotheEquationof
Exchange,inThePurchasingPowerofMoney.ItsDeterminationandRelationtoCredit,
InterestandCrises.2drev.ed.NewYork:Kelley,pp8‐32.
SupplementaryReading:
Thesegeneralsupplementaryreadingsaresecondarysourcesthatprovidematerial
relevanttoallthreeofthesessionsIwilllead.
Boumans,Marcel,ArianeDupont‐KiefferandDuoQin(eds.)2011.Historieson
Econometrics.HistoryofPoliticalEconomy,supplementtoVolume43.DurhamandLondon:
DukeUniversityPress.(Thesehistoriescoverthedevelopmentofeconometricsfromits
foundationintheearly1930untiltoday.)
Hendry,DavidF.andMaryS.Morgan(eds.)1995.TheFoundationsofEconometricAnalysis.
Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress.(ThiscompaniontoMorgan1990isbotha
compilationofclassiceconometricarticlesaswellasacommentarybytheeditorsonthe
readings.)
Klein,JudyL.andMaryS.Morgan(eds.)2001.TheAgeofEconomicMeasurement.Historyof
PoliticalEconomy,supplementtoVolume33.DurhamandLondon:DukeUniversityPress.
(Theageofmeasurementistheperiodfrom1830to1950.Thehistoriesinthisvolume
coverrisingpracticesofmeasurementandofmathematizationinthatperiod.)
Morgan,MaryS.1990.TheHistoryofEconometricIdeas.Cambridge:CambridgeUniversity
Press.(ThishistorycoverstheperiodfromWilliamStanleyJevons’workofthe1870s
throughTrygveHaavelmo’sProbabilityApproachpublishedin1944.)
Weintraub,E.Roy2002.HowEconomicsBecameaMathematicalScience.Durhamand
London:DukeUniversityPress.(Thishistorycoversthe20thcenturymathematizationof
economics.)
Wednesday,June13
Session5‐AmericanInstitutionalism:WaltonHamiltonandCreativeProblem
Solving–MalcolmRutherford
RequiredReading:
MalcolmRutherford.2011.TheInstitutionalistMovementinAmericanEconomics,1918‐
1947:ScienceandSocialControl.Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,Chapters3and6.
SupplementaryMaterials:
Hamilton,WaltonH.1923.Education‐‐RitualorAdventure?TheNation116(June):720‐
721.
Hamilton,WaltonH.1926.TheProblemofBituminousCoal.AmericanLaborLegislation
Review16:217‐229.
Hamilton,WaltonH.1930.AnEconomistAuditshisCosts.TheSurvey63(January1):380‐
383.
Hamilton,WaltonH.1932.TheControlofBigBusiness.TheNation134(May25):591‐
593.
Hamilton,WaltonH.1938.ThePathofDueProcessofLaw.Ethics48(April):269‐296.
Hamilton,WaltonH.1946.TheEconomicManAffectsaNationalRole.AmericanEconomic
Review36(May):735‐744.
Hamilton,WaltonH.1948.WhatisaPatent?LawandContemporaryProblems13
(Spring):245‐259.
Session6‐Robbins,Friedman,andEconomicMethodology–WadeHands
RequiredReading:
Robbins,Lionel(1935),AnEssayontheNatureandSignificanceofEconomicScience
(excerptinChapter3ofDanielHausman,ThePhilosophyofEconomics:AnAnthology,3rd
Edition,CUP,2008)
Friedman,Milton(1953)"TheMethodologyofPositiveEconomics"
(excerptinChapter7ofDanielHausman,ThePhilosophyofEconomics:AnAnthology,3rd
Edition,CUP,2008)
SupplementaryReading:
Hands,D.Wade(2009),"EffectiveTensioninRobbins'sEconomicMethodology,"
Economica,76,831‐44.
Mäki,Uskali(2009),"ReadingtheMethodologicalEssayinTwentieth‐CenturyEconomics:
MapofMultiplePerspectives,"inTheMethodologyofPositiveEconomics:Reflectionsonthe
MiltonFriedmanLegacy,U.Mäki(ed.),CUP,47‐67.
Hands,D.Wade(2001),"TheMethodologicalTraditioninEconomics,"inReflectionWithout
Rules:EconomicMethodologyandContemporaryScienceTheory,CUP,Chapter2,pp.13‐69.
Thursday,June14
Session7‐InterwarMetrics–MarcelBoumans
RequiredReading:
RagnarFrisch1933.Editorial.Econometrica1(1):1‐4.
R.Frisch1933.PropagationandImpulseProblemsinDynamicEconomics.InEconomics
EssaysinHonourofGustavCassel.London:AllenandUnwin,pp.171‐75,197‐205;excerpt.
EugenSlutzky1937.TheSummationofRandomCausesastheSourceofCyclicProcesses.
Econometrica5(2):105‐114only.
JanTinbergen1939a.ChapterI.Introduction.StatisticalTestingofBusinessCycleTheoriesI:
AMethodanditsApplicationtoInvestmentActivity.Geneva:LeagueofNations,pp.11‐14.
J.Tinbergen1939b.Introduction.StatisticalTestingofBusinessCycleTheoriesII:Business
CyclesintheUnitedStatesofAmerica1919‐1932.Geneva:LeagueofNations,pp.9‐20.
JohnMaynardKeynes1939.ProfessorTinbergen’sMethod.TheEconomicJournal49:558‐
568.
J.M.Keynes1940.Comment.TheEconomicJournal50:154‐56.
MiltonFriedman1940.ReviewofBusinessCyclesintheUnitedStatesofAmerica,1919‐
1932byJanTinbergen.AmericanEconomicReview30:657‐660.
SupplementaryReading:Seesession4supplementaryreading
Session8‐InterwarDemandandConsumerChoiceTheory:TheOrdinalRevolution
andRevealedPreference–WadeHands
RequiredReading:
Giocoli,Nicola(2003),"TheEscapeFromPsychology,"inModelingRationalAgents:From
InterwarEconomicstoEarlyModernGameTheory,EdwardElgar,Chapter2,pp.41‐133.
Samuelson,PaulA.(1938),"ANoteonthePureTheoryofConsumer'sBehavior,"
Economica,5,61‐71.
SupplementaryReading:
Mirowski,PhilipandHands,D.Wade(1998),"AParadoxofBudgets:ThePostwar
StabilizationofAmericanNeoclassicalDemandTheory,"inFromInterwarPluralismto
PostwarNeoclassicism[AnnualSupplementtoHistoryofPoliticalEconomyvol.30],M.S.
MorganandM.Rutherford(eds.),Durham,NC:DukeUniversityPress,269‐92.
Hands,D.Wade(2006),“Integrability,Rationalizability,andPath‐Dependencyinthe
HistoryofDemandTheory,”inAgreementonDemand:ConsumerTheoryintheTwentieth
Century,P.MirowskiandD.W.Hands(eds.),Durham,NC:DukeUniversityPress[Annual
SupplementtoHistoryofPoliticalEconomyVol.38],153‐85.
Hands,D.Wade(2011),"PaulSamuelsonandRevealedPreferenceTheory."
Friday,June15
Session9‐ PhilosophyofScienceandEconomics:Positivism,Popper,andAfter–
WadeHands
RequiredReading:
Hands,D.Wade(2001),"Positivism"and"PopperianEconomicMethodology,"inReflection
WithoutRules:EconomicMethodologyandContemporaryScienceTheory,CUP,pp.70‐95
andpp.274‐304.
SupplementaryReading:
Blaug,Mark(1976),"KuhnversusLakatos,orParadigmsversusResearchProgrammesin
theHistoryofEconomics,"HistoryofPoliticalEconomy,7,399‐419.
Blaug,Mark(1994),"WhyIAmNotaConstructivist:ConfessionsofanUnrepentant
Popperian,"inNewDirectionsinEconomicMethodology,R.Backhouse(ed.),Routledge,
109‐36.
Hands,D.Wade(2007),"2006HESPresidentialAddress:ATaleofTwoMainstreams:
EconomicsandPhilosophyofNaturalScienceinthemid‐TwentiethCentury,"Journalofthe
HistoryofEconomicThought,29,1‐13.
Monday,June18
Session10‐TheInterwarPeriodandtheAustrians‐BruceCaldwell
RequiredReading:
Hayek,“EconomicsandKnowledge”[1937],reprintedinIndividualismandEconomicOrder
(Chicago:UniversityofChicagoPress,1948),chapter2.(Theentirebook,henceforthIEO,is
availableonlineatmises.org,thewebsiteoftheMisesInstitute.)
HC,Chapter10.
Caldwell,“Editor’sIntroduction”toF.A.Hayek,TheRoadtoSerfdom:Texts,Documents.
[1944]Chicago:UniversityofChicagoPress,2007.
SupplementaryReading:
LudwigvonMises,“EconomicCalculationintheSocialistCommonwealth,”availableonline
attheMisesInstitute.
OskarLange,“OntheEconomicTheoryofSocialism,”inBenjaminLippincott,ed.OnThe
EconomicTheoryofSocialism(Minneapolis:UniversityofMinnesotaPress,1938).
Hayek,“TheMeaningofCompetition”–Chapter5,IEO Hayek,“SocialistCalculationIII:TheCompetitive‘Solution’”–Chapter9,IEO
Session11–GameTheory1:OskarMorgensternandInterwarVienna‐RobLeonard
RequiredReading:
Leonard,Robert(2010)VonNeumann,MorgensternandtheCreationofGameTheory
(CambridgeUniversityPress),Ch.8
Morgenstern,Oskar(1935),“PerfectForesightandEconomicEquilibrium”,inSchotter,
Andrew(ed.)(1976),SelectedEconomicWritingsofOskarMorgenstern,pp.169‐83.A
translation,byFrankKnight(Univ.Chicago),of"VollkommeneVoraussichtund
wirtschaftlichesGleichgewicht",ZeitschriftfürNationalökonomie6,No.3,pp.337‐57.
SupplementaryReading:
Neurath,Otto(1917),“TheConceptualStructureofEconomicTheoryanditsFoundations”,
inOttoNeurath,EconomicWritings,Selections1904‐1945,editedbyThomasUebeland
RobertS.Cohen,Dordrecht:Reidel,pp.312‐341.TranslationbyThomasUebelof“Das
BegriffsgebäubederWirtschaftslehreundseineGrundlagen”,Zeitschriftfürdiegesamte
Staatswissenschaft73,pp.484‐520.
VonMises,Ludwig(1920)“EconomicCalculationintheSocialistCommonwealth”.
ReprintedinHayek,Friedrich(ed.)(1935),CollectivistEconomicPlanning:CriticalStudies
onthePossibilitiesofSocialism,London:RoutledgeandSons.
Mayer,Hans(1932),“TheCognitiveValuesofFunctionalTheoriesofPrice:Criticaland
PositiveInvestigationsConcerningthePriceProblem”inKirzner,Israel(ed.)(1994),
ClassicsinAustrianEconomics,Vol.II,pp.London:WilliamPickering,pp.55–168A
translationof“DerErkenntniswertderFunktionellenPreistheorien”,inDie
WirtschaftstheoriederGegenwart,Vol.II,pp.147‐239b,Vienna.
Hayek,Friedrich(1937),“EconomicsandKnowledge”,Economica,NewSeries,Vol.4,No.
13,pp.33‐54.
Leonard,Robert(2010)VonNeumann,MorgensternandtheCreationofGameTheory
(CambridgeUniversityPress),Ch.7
Tuesday,June19
Session12–TheBackgroundtoModernMacroeconomics(Beforethe1930s)–Kevin
Hoover
RequiredReading:
IrvingFisher,ThePurchasingPowerofMoney(1911),chapter3.
DonPatinkin,Money,Interest,andPrices(1956),notesE‐G.
DavidLaidler,FabricatingtheKeynesianRevolution(1999),excerptsfromchapters4and5.
MaryMorgan,TheHistoryofEconometricIdeas(1990),chapter2.
SupplementaryReading:
PrimarySources:
Hume,David,Essays:Moral,Political,andLiterary,particularly(a)"OfMoney,"(b)“Of
Interest,”(c)"OftheBalanceofTrade."(Classicbookavailableinvariouseditions.Afine
oneiseditedbyEugeneF.Miller,Indianapolis:LibertyClassics,andreprintsan1885
edition.)
A.C.Pigou,“TheValueofMoney,”QuarterlyJournalofEconomics32(1),November1917,
38‐65.
JohnMaynardKeynes,ATractonMonetaryReform.London:Macmillan,1923.
JohnMaynardKeynes,ATreatiseonMoney.London:Macmillan,1930.
KnutWicksell,InterestandPrices,1898.
KnutWicksell,LecturesonPoliticalEconomy,vol.1,1901;vol.2,1906.
SecondarySources:
AntoinMurphy,TheGenesisofMacroeconomics:NewIdeasfromSirWilliamPettytoHenry
Thornton.Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress,2009.
ArieArnon,MonetaryTheoryandPolicyfromHumeandSmithtoWicksell:Money,Credit,
andtheEconomy.Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress.
KevinD.Hoover,CausalityinMacroeconomics,ch.1.(PresentsHume’smonetarytheory
andoutlinesitscausalstructure.)
Session13–DoingHETResearch–RoyWeintraubandCraufurdGoodwin
CraufurdGoodwin2008.“EcologistMeetsEconomics:AldoLeopold,1887‐1948.”Journalof
theHistoryofEconomicThought30(4):429‐452
SimonBowmaker2012.InterviewwithE.RoyWeintraubinTheArtandPracticeof
EconomicResearch:LessonsfromLeadingMinds.NorthamptionMA:EdwardElgar.
4:30pmPresentationonDuke’sArchivalHoldings,theEconomists’PapersProject,Rare
BookRoom‐PerkinsLibrary
Wednesday,June20
Session14– GameTheory2:FromChesstotheSocialOrderwithJohnvonNeumann
‐RobLeonard
RequiredReading:
Leonard,Robert(2010)VonNeumann,MorgensternandtheCreationofGameTheory
(CambridgeUniversityPress),Chs.1and9
SupplementaryReading:
Lasker,Emanuel(1907)Struggle,UniversityofMichiganLibraryReprint(availableon
Amazon).TranslationofKampf(NewYork:Lasker’sPublishingCo.,1907),reprintedin
2001byBerlin‐Brandenburg:Potsdam,withforewordbyLotharSchmid.
VonNeumann,John(1928),“ZurTheoriederGesellschaftsspiele”,MathematischeAnnalen,
100:pp.295‐320;trans.byS.Bargmannas“OntheTheoryofGamesofStrategy”,
Contributionstothetheoryofgames,Vol.4,Eds.AlbertTuckerandR.DuncanLuce
(Princeton:PrincetonU.Press,1959),pp.13‐42.
VonNeumann,JohnandOskarMorgenstern(1944),TheoryofGamesandEconomic
Behavior,PrincetonUniversityPress,Ch.1.
Session15‐Postwarmetrics–MarcelBoumans
RequiredReading:
ArthurF.BurnsandWesleyC.Mitchell1946.ChapterI.WorkingPlans.MeasuringBusiness
Cycles.NewYork:NBER,pp.3‐17only.
TjallingC.Koopmans1947.MeasurementwithoutTheory.ReviewofEconomicStatistics29
(3):161‐172.
RutledgeVining1949.KoopmansontheChoiceofVariablestoBeStudiedandofMethods
ofMeasurement.TheReviewofEconomicandStatistics31(2):77‐86.
Hendry,DavidF.1980.Econometrics–AlchemyorScience?Economica47(188):387‐398
(extract).
EdwardC.Prescott2001.BusinessCycleResearch:MethodsandProblems.InLionelloF.
Punzo(ed.),Cycles,GrowthandStructuralChange.London:Routledge.pp.283‐300.
Thursday,June21
Session16–KeynesandHisCritics(The1930s)‐KevinHoover
RequiredReading:
J.M.Keynes,TheGeneralTheoryofEmploymentInterestandMoney(1936),excerpts.
DavidLaidler,FabricatingtheKeynesianRevolution(1999),chapter2.
J.R.Hicks,“Mr.KeynesandtheClassics:ASuggestedInterpretation,”Econometrica5(2),
147‐159.
SupplementaryReading:
PrimarySources:
JohnR.Hicks,ValueandCapital,2ndedition.Oxford:ClarendonPress,1946.
FriedrichA.Hayek,MonetaryTheoryandtheTradeCycle,1929.
FriedrichA.Hayek,PricesandProduction,1931.
SecondarySources:
PeterClarke,TheKeynesianRevolutionintheMaking,1924‐1936.Oxford:Oxford
UniversityPress.
AlanCoddington,KeynesianEconomics:TheSearchforFirstPrinciples.London:Unwin
Hyman,1984.
AlvinHansen,AGuidetoKeynes.NewYork:McGraw‐Hill,1953.
KevinD.Hoover,“RelativeWages,RationalityandInvoluntaryUnemploymentinKeynes's
LaborMarket,”HistoryofPoliticalEconomy27(4),1995,653‐85.
KevinD.Hoover,“IsThereaPlaceforRationalExpectationsinKeynes'sGeneralTheory?in
G.C.HarcourtandP.A.Riach,editors.Keynes'sGeneralTheory:ASecondEdition.London:
Routledge,1997.(UsefulfordiscussionoftherelationshipofKeynes’snotionofuncertainty
tohismacroeconomics.)
BradleyBateman,Keynes’UncertainRevolution.AnnArbor:UniversityofMichiganPress,
1996.
Session17‐Hayek’sPostwarContributions–BruceCaldwell
RequiredReading:
Hayek,“TheUseofKnowledgeinSociety”Chapter4,IEO.
Hayek,“TheTheoryofComplexPhenomena”[1964],reprintedinStudiesinPhilosophy,
PoliticsandEconomics(Chicago:UniversityofChicagoPress,1967),pp.22‐42.
HC,Chapter13.
SupplementaryReading:
Hayek,“Individualism:TrueandFalse,”Chapter1,IEO
Hayek,“TheErrorsofConstructivism”[1970],reprintedinNewStudiesinPhilosophy,
Politics,EconomicsandtheHistoryofIdeas(Chicago:UniversityofChicagoPress,1978),pp.
3‐22.
Hayek,“ThePretenceofKnowledge”[1975],reprintedinNewStudies,pp.23‐34.[Thisis
Hayek’sNobeladdress.]
7:00pmClosingDinner–Tyler’sTapRoom,Durham
Friday,June22
Sessions18–MacroeconometricsandTheNewEconomics(1930‐1950)‐Kevin
Hoover
RequiredReading:
Frisch,Ragnar,“PropagationProblemsandImpulseProblemsinDynamicEconomics,”in
EconomicEssaysinHonorofGustavCassel(1933)[Thewholepaperisrelevant,butdon’t
getboggeddowninthemathematicaldetails].
MaryMorgan,TheHistoryofEconometricIdeas(1990),chapter4.
LawrenceKlein,TheKeynesianRevolution(1947),excerpts.
Lerner,Abba,“FunctionalFinanceandtheFederalDebt,”SocialResearch(1943),excerpts.
SupplementaryReading:
PrimarySources:
GottfriedHabeler,ProsperityandDepression.Geneva:LeagueofNations,1937.
JanTinbergen,BusinessCyclesintheUnitedStates,1919‐1932.Geneva:LeagueofNations,
1939.
JohnHicks,ValueandCapital,2ndedition.Oxford:ClarendonPress,1946.
SecondarySources:
SeymourHarris,editor.TheNewEconomics:Keynes’sInfluenceonTheoryandPublicPolicy.
NewYork:Knopf,1947.
12noon–2pmCheckoutofDormitoryonWestCampus