18 Annual report 2011 Annual report 2011 Excellence in research • 20 Research focused on the South • 23 Preserving the environment and resources • 30 Improving public health in the South • 34 Understanding social evolution in the South 19 20 Annual report 2011 Research focused on the South Through close partnerships between North and South, the IRD works to improve living conditions for vulnerable populations and to encourage training and autonomy among scientific communities in the South. By developing regional cross-disciplinary projects in the three priority domains - health, society and the environment and resources, the IRD is committed to conquering the major issues in development for its Southern partners. Collaborations for the South The IRD plays an integral part in the evolution of the French research landscape. It is linked to three alliances: AVIESAN, the French National Alliance for Life Sciences and Health; ANCRE, the French National Alliance for Energy Research Coordination; and AllEnvi, the National Alliance for Environmental Research. It has also strengthened collaboration with higher education teaching establishments and other research organisations. New agreements have thus been signed, notably with the French Natural History Museum, the Paul Sabatier Toulouse 3 and Nice Sophia Antipolis universities, and the PRESUniversité Montpellier Sud. Great Ice meteorological station / Bolivia As part of the Investissements d'Avenir programme, more than half of IRD research units are involved in the selected projects for excellence. IRD teams are partners with the 15 “Laboratoires d'excellence” (Labex), of which 8 are in the domains of the environment and astrophysics, 4 in human and social sciences, 2 in biology and health and 1 in the field of energy. For example, the Institute is particularly involved with the Coral Labex, which examines coral reefs faced with global change, the CEBA Labex, covering Amazonian biodiversity in Guiana, and the AGRO Labex, which looks at questions of agronomy and sustainable development. The Institute is also partner to three “Équipements d'excellence” (Equipex). It proposed a consortium working to promote themes relating to the South and is one of the founding members of the “Institut hospitalouniversitaire” (IHU) POLMIT for infectious diseases, led by the scientific cooperation foundation Méditerranée infections in Marseille. IRD units are also linked to the creation of around twenty proposals in response to the call for projects for the second wave of Investissements d’avenir programmes. The Institute aims to make its Southern partners benefit from the positive effects of these structures, and will assist them in understanding these new features on the French research landscape. New partnership instruments In order to place Southern countries at the heart of partnerships, new tools have been developed: The mixed international laboratories (LMI) and the regional pilot programmes (PPR). These systems strengthen Southern teams' efficiency in the fields of research, training and innovation. LMIs were launched in 2008 and are operational structures located within the premises of our Southern partners. They enable training and research projects to be jointly implemented around shared platforms. They spread out regionally and internationally and work with scientists from the South, offering researchers and lecturer-researchers from the North the opportunity to develop lasting relationships with their peers. Fourteen LMIs have been created and funded, including three in the Mediterranean, two in West Africa, one in southern Africa, six in Latin America and two in Asia. For example, the RICE LMI develops collaborative research projects in Vietnam with the aim of improving rice production. The GreatIce LMI is dedicated to studying the impact of climate changes on glaciers in Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador. Launched in 2010, PPRs are multidisciplinary research programmes on a regional scale. They correspond, both thematically and geographically, to priorities jointly defined by the IRD and its Southern partners and rely on a coordinated set of scientific objectives and research activities relating to one or more regions. With shared coordination and direction between North and South, each PPR mobilises a large group of research teams. Three programmes have been approved in 2012. One such PPR is Biodiversité, changements globaux et santé dans les forêts tropicales humides d'Afrique centrale (FTH), which aims to understand and predict environmental responses to climate and anthropic Annual report 2011 changes in the Central African forest regions. The Sociétés rurales, environnement et climat en Afrique de l'Ouest (SREC) PPR combats the vulnerability of rural populations faced with climate change in West Africa. Lastly, the Dynamiques des surfaces et interfaces continentales et gestion des territoires ruraux dans le Bassin méditerranéen (SICMED) PPR enables the study and modelling of rural and semi-rural human-altered ecosystems. Seven PPRs are currently in the final stages of their scientific projects. These programmes relate to themes as varied as the study of public policy in Sub-Saharan Africa and the analysis of resources and environmental and socio-economic dynamics in the Amazon. Increasing numbers of copublications excellence. 12 articles appeared in Emerging Infectious Diseases, 9 in Clinical Infectious Diseases, 8 in Remote Sensing of Environment, 6 in the Journal of Hydrology, 5 in PNAS, 4 in Nature, 4 more in The Lancet and 3 in Science. Each researcher contributes to 2 publications on average, and among the 791 staff who have published, nearly 11% have written more than five articles. In the field of social sciences, IRD researchers have published 232 articles, 60 books and 220 book chapters, according to the Horizon database. A new indicator relating to these themes has been included in the objectives contract. It relates to a selection of journals extracted from AERES listings and is complemented by a limited number of important publications on research for development. In 2010, 181 articles met the criteria for this selection, three quarters of our total production. Co-publications with Southern countries have increased regularly in the last two years, and now make up 45% of the total. This increase is particularly prominent in West Africa and Latin America. The principal countries concerned are Senegal, Brazil, Benin, Cameroon, Burkina Faso and Peru. When the 2015 objectives contract is launched, this figure should have reached 55%. Publications enable the sharing of research results with the scientific community as a whole. They also demonstrate our research teams' dynamism. 300 Rice picking / Vietnam The number of articles published by IRD researchers has increased by around 7%, up to 1,375 references in the Web of Science. This corresponds to an increase of 51% compared with 2006. If we take into account the full scope of the mixed research units that the IRD is involved with, this scientific output can be counted at 3,500 articles. The visibility of publications is always important: 61% are published in journals with an increased impact in their field, and more than 13% in journals of 21 250 Publications with an IRD author between 2006 and 2011 200 1,600 150 1,400 600 1,200 100 1,000 50 800 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Co-publications by major southern region 2011 0 2009 2010 2011 East and Southern Africa, Indian Ocean West and Central Africa Mediterranean region Latin America and Caribbean region Asia, Pacific 22 Annual report 2011 Expeditions to better understand the Southern landscape The locations explored by IRD researchers are as varied as their research topics. From tropical forests to Sahelian deserts, Andean glaciers to Mediterranean coasts, they study humans and their environment. The fight against infectious diseases and the emergence of new illnesses, migratory movements, evolving societies, climate changes and the preservation of resources and biodiversity are all central preoccupations for our researchers. Each year they carry out exploration missions and expeditions in order to better understand the ecosystems of the South. The EXBODI campaign has permitted new samples to be taken from the area around New Caledonia, in order to better understand the diversity of fauna in the underwater mountain ranges in this region and the study of little-known organisms linked to sunken wood. The HYDROPRONY campaign, launched at the end of 2011, working on an original hydrothermal site in New Caledonia’s southern lagoon, will enable a better understanding of the conditions that favoured the emergence of the first life forms. This type of extreme environment is also of particular interest in the field of biotechnology, as it is potentially rich in bacteria that are capable of synthesising new molecules. Still in New Caledonia, the CALIOPE oceanographic mission has enabled the development of monitoring tools for the lagoon ecosystems, using satellite imaging to monitor the water colour, which varies according to concentrations of marine microorganisms. TUAM’2011 is another initiative, part of the “biodiversité et substances marines de Polynésie française” mission supported by the Grand Observatoire du Pacifique sud, creating an inventory of marine fauna, with a focus on sponges. These animals are present in all marine environments, at all latitudes, and they have an excellent capacity to adapt. Their biological properties and natural composition can also be used in human healthcare, aquaculture and environmental applications. As part of the NECTALIS oceanographic campaign, jointly led by the IRD and the Pacific Community, experts are measuring the temperature and salinity of the water, currents, light, and levels of phytoplankton and zooplankton and their composition, in order to try and discover the initial links in the marine food chain. HYDROPRONY / New Caledonia Contacts: dgdscience@ird.fr dic@ird.fr TUAM’2011 / French Polynesia The experimental PIRATA programme, established in 1997 by France, Brazil and the USA in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean, enables measurement of meteorological and oceanographic parameters from buoys that transmit their data by satellite every day. New meteo-oceanic buoys have been installed in the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic basin as part of the PIRATA 2011 campaign. IRD researchers have also participated in several scientific missions in the scattered islands, with the CNRS and the French Southern and Antarctic lands, and the Marquesas Islands, with the Agence des aires marines protégées. The Institute has also organised the ABANDA 2011 expedition, in partnership with the Fondation Liambissi, to study the orange cave-dwelling crocodiles of Gabon. This group of crocodiles offers a unique research opportunity due to their geographic isolation and their highly specific living conditions. The Abanda 2011 expedition Having set off in 2010 to explore the karst caves of Abanda in Gabon, in search of traces of ancient human activity, researchers from the “Patrimoines locaux” unit and their partners from the Fondation Liambissi, in collaboration with the universities of Rouen and Florida, discovered a population of orange dwarf crocodiles. These highly specific specimens had never been recorded in this kind of cave habitat. The second phase of the expedition took place in August 2011, in order to extend knowledge of the cave network, record new crocodile specimens and collect new biological samples. The initial results confirm the genetic divergence of these crocodiles in relation to those found outside of the caves. However, many questions remain unanswered, particularly concerning the duration and nature of their isolation, to be explored by future missions. Annual report 2011 Preserving the environment and resources Global environmental changes and their impact on resources and our surroundings occupy a central place among both political and scientific priorities. More than anywhere else, communities of the South are dependent on natural environments for their very subsistence. Extreme climatic events, soil deterioration and diminishing water supplies thus have dramatic consequences in regions that are also experiencing rapid population expansion. For the IRD and our partners, we are equally preoccupied with enhancing our understanding of the processes that cause climate variations and improving our capacity to predict them, anticipating natural risks and preserving planetary resources and biodiversity. We observe, measure and simulate in order to decipher how natural and human-altered ecosystems' operate; we report and model to allow better management, but also to share knowledge within communities in the North and the South. These are the foundations of our scientific operations. Through multidisciplinary collaborations, establishing major observatories and using innovative techniques such as satellite monitoring, our research enables us to find sustainable solutions for Southern countries. 1,065 481 391 articles researchers engineers and technicians 23 24 Annual report 2011 Towards ecosystemic fishing management Partner Lynne Shannon. University of Cape Town, Marine Research Institute. “By assembling experts at the highest level, we hope to obtain useful and pertinent data to improve fishing management for those species known as “fodder”. This project has given us a remarkable opportunity to produce a robust and concrete model that can now be used at a local level, applied to fisheries in Benguela South so that sardines and anchovies can be caught without affecting the needs of predators. These results will enable us to implement an ecosystemic approach to fishing in South Africa.” Trophic interactions between species - the relationship between predators and prey, and for competition over food - have a decisive role to play in the function and dynamics of marine ecosystems. Better characterisation of these interactions will enable a better understanding of the modes of organisation and the dynamics of marine communities, and also a prediction of the impact on overfishing. Researchers from the EME(1) unit are working together to find a better system for fishing management and preserving biodiversity. Fish at the bottom of food chains, such as anchovies, mackerels, sardines or herring, are used principally for the production of feeds and oils for aquaculture or animal rearing. They currently represent 37% of catches worldwide and demand is constantly increasing. And yet these species, which usually feed on plankton, play a crucial role within ecosystems, by guaranteeing a food source for larger predatory fish, mammals and sea birds. IRD researchers and their partners have analysed the impact the overfishing of these species is having on the balance of marine ecosystems across the world. From the Australian coastline to the North Sea, from South Africa to California via the shores of Peru, five major regions were explored. Although variable between regions, the results indicate the importance of these kinds of fish in preserving biodiversity. The overfishing of anchovies has a strong impact on the equilibrium of ecosystems in Peru as a whole, whereas for sardines, the impact is felt more in the trophic areas of South Africa, and it is sand eel fishing that has had the strongest effect in the North Sea. Publication: Science A better understanding of the feeding relationships within ecosystems can enable the fixing of quotas that are suited to individual species and regions. Minimally reducing catches by maintaining them at 80% of maximum yield would significantly reduce the impact on the ecosystem. In addition, the critical threshold of one third of fish stocks can also be used as a reference point not to be exceeded. By providing concrete results and predictive models, these studies are offering new possibilities for establishing fishery control policies that can maintain exploitation of fishing resources in an economically, environmentally and socially sustainable manner. Another study has compared the changing levels of fish stocks and the rates of reproduction of 14 sea birds, such as gannets, seagulls, puffins and penguins. These birds feed mainly on sardines, anchovies, herring, and compete directly with fishermen. Based on marine observations, scientists have established for the first time an empirical predator-prey model, and have shown that fish stocks diminished by over one third of their maximum biomass cause a brutal decrease in hatchling numbers. The balance of the entire ecosystem is under threat, wherever the location around the globe. These different activities are thus exposing the importance of sustainable exploitation of aquatic resources, particularly for the preservation of the species Contacts: Philippe Cury and Yunne-Jai Shin UMR EME (IRD/Ifremer/université Montpellier 2) philippe.cury@ird.fr yunne-jai.shin@ird.fr in question. However, a lowering of fishing quotas could lead to diminishing yields. And yet these small coastal fish, the principal foodstuff for numerous other species, are also of a major nutritional benefit to man, whether consumed directly or indirectly. The difficulty is thus to balance the preservation of biodiversity with sufficient yields to ensure food security worldwide. Fish and catch / Peru (1) Exploited marine ecosystems (Ecosystèmes marins exploités). Fishing / Senegal Annual report 2011 25 Retracing the evolution of the tropical rainforests The tropical rainforests are the richest and most complex terrestrial ecosystems on the planet. They are reservoirs of biodiversity, and also climate regulators, and currently cover about 7% of the Earth's surface. They are threatened by human activity in all areas, and their management and exploitation are currently major issues in the field of sustainable development. The DIADE(1) unit has for the first time retraced the evolutionary history of one of the plant families that is highly characteristic of these environments: the palm family. By using new data on the origin and evolution of these ecosystems through history, the results may allow us to better understand their future development. Palms are omnipresent in tropical rainforests and play an important ecological role, due to the number of different species as much as their overall number. They are also of particular interest to scientists, due to their high sensitivity to climate changes such as the level of water available or temperature variations. Their highly-recognisable profile is also beneficial in fossil identification. IRD researchers and their partners(2) have thus used them as models in order to study the evolution of tropical rainforests. Partner themselves. During the Cretaceous period, the equatorial climate was too hot and too dry to accommodate these forests. Results suggest that the first tropical rainforests appeared on the northern supercontinent known as “Laurasia”, which included Eurasia and North America. Containing 50% of the known plant and animal species on the planet, tropical rainforests are one of the main original reservoirs of biodiversity. The multitude of resources they contain also provides sustenance to hundreds of millions of people. It seems crucial to preserve them. Our improved knowledge of the emergence and ecology of palms is now creating new hypotheses to help us to understand the history of these ecosystems during geological history, and their future evolution. This research can be used in tandem with the implementation of careful management that balances exploitation and preservation of the tropical rainforests. Using molecular dating methods - based on DNA sequences - the origin of current palm genera has been estimated at over 100 million years ago, in the middle of the Cretaceous period. These results have dismissed the previouslyaccepted hypothesis that placed the origins of tropical rainforest at the start of the Tertiary period, 35-40 million years later. Armed with this knowledge of the dates of the first palms, scientists have been able to estimate the dates that different species appeared using the principle of the molecular clock, which states that the DNA mutation rate can be correlated with time. They have thus shown that the major palm species appeared gradually over time, certainly for three quarters of their evolutionary history. These results join those from a preceding study that dealt with another family of tropical plants, Annonaceae(3), but contradict more readily-accepted hypotheses which state that the diversity is due to recent and rapid speciation. Taking into account the Earth’s climate 100 million years ago and the positions of the ancient continents, researchers have also been able to determine the geographic area of origin of these palms, and thus of the tropical rainforests Agroforestry / Brazil (1) Diversité, adaptation et développement des plantes. (2) Research is being carried out in partnership with the New York Botanical Garden in the US and the Royal Botanical Garden Kew in the UK. (3) The Annonaceae family contains around 2,000 species in around 100 genera: tropical and sub-tropical trees, shrubs and climbers. Bonaventure Sonké. Professor, École normale supérieure, University of Yaoudé I, Cameroon. “One of the aims of the research being carried out with the IRD is to advance our understanding of the location and origin of zones rich in biodiversity and endemism within the forests of Atlantic Central Africa. To this end, we are studying tropical Orchidaceae and Rubiaceae. We are taking care to involve, train and raise awareness among local populations of the conservation and management of their environment.” Palm leaves / Costa Rica Contact: Thomas Couvreur UMR DIADE (IRD/université Montpellier 2) thomas.couvreur@ird.fr Publications: BMC Biology, Journal of Biogeography 26 Annual report 2011 Improving predictions to limit the consequences of El Niño Partner Julio Quijano. Masters student, Cayetano Heredia University, Lima. “The UMR LEGOS and the Peruvian institute of geophysics (IGP) are working in similar fields of research and their collaboration is highly pertinent for my own studies. I work specifically on the atmospheric dynamics of dust clouds in the central region of Peru. My aim is to continue with my work using the digital models these two institutions have produced, particularly to better understand the climate in the region, the interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere on the Peruvian coast and the impact of global change.” Contact: Christophe Maes UMR LEGOS (CNES/CNRS/IRD/université Paul Sabatier-Toulouse 3) christophe.maes@ird.fr Publication: Scientific Online letters on the Atmosphere The Pacific Ocean is home to one of the planet’s most energetic climatic phenomena: ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), better known as El Niño for warm events or La Niña for cool events. It influences global climate as a whole. The major consequences of ENSO are very often catastrophic - diluvian rainfall, exceptional drought, perturbations to global cyclonic activity - and affect some of the world's poorest countries. Beyond advancing scientific knowledge, understanding and predicting this phenomenon is a major economic and social issue. El Niño is seen as a perturbation to the “normal” state of atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the Tropical Pacific. Indeed, under normal conditions, anticyclonic cells in subtropical regions generate eastern winds at the level of the ocean, known as trade winds. These winds push masses of air heated by the sun westwards, creating a vast stretch of water heated to above 28°C, known as the “warm pool”. Atmospheric temperatures rise on contact with this warm water. As such, the reheated humid air rises and forms heavy clouds that condense into precipitation. To the east, cold water rises from the depths to counteract the deficit in surface water caused by the trade winds. This is known as equatorial upwelling. One of the signs of El Niño is a lessening of the trade winds. The masses of warm water are thus displaced to the east, the upwelling mechanism slows down and the rainy zone moves to the coasts of Peru, Ecuador and the American west, whereas the western Pacific suffers from heavy drought. The phenomenon of La Niña is, in contrast, characterised by a strengthening of the trade winds, pushing masses of warm air to the west and causing heavy rain in Australia and Indonesia. Monitoring the movements of these masses of warm air seems to be a good way to predict the onset of these events. Researchers from LEGOS(1) and their partners(2) have prioritised two parameters that enable the observation and prediction of climatic anomalies: the colour of the water and salinity of ocean layers. Indeed, water that rises from the depths to the east of the warm pool is rich in mineral salts and nutrition and favours the proliferation of a variety of sea algae. When observed by satellite(3), it appears greener than the warm water. Such data thus enables regular and precise monitoring of displacement in this zone, which can stretch for several thousand kilometres around the Equator. The second parameter demonstrated by scientists is the measurement of salinity in the water. Indeed, this is an indicator of the presence of an oceanic layer known as the “salt barrier layer”, situated at several tens of metres in depth. It is characteristic of the western Tropical Pacific and influences exchanges between the ocean and the atmosphere. Researchers have used a digital model to demonstrate the major importance of this layer in triggering El Niño and global climatic variability. The SMOS(4) satellite operation was launched in 2009 by the European Space Agency and is particularly focused on observing salinity in oceans. In a few years this new data will be able to be used to enhance monitoring and prediction of the ENSO phenomenon. Such activities have thus improved our understanding and modelling of the mechanisms that control El Niño and La Niña. Thanks to high-frequency surveillance tools, monitoring the colour and salinity of water in the various models will allow for greater precision in climate predictions and the ability to limit the consequences of these phenomena. Surface temperature / Pacific Ocean (1) Laboratoire d’études en géophysique et océanographie spatiales. (2) This project has been carried out in partnership with researchers from the Météo France national meteorological research centre and the CNRS. (3) Analysis was performed based on data from the American SeaWiFS and MODIS/Aqua projects. (4) Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity. Water sampling / Peru Annual report 2011 27 The Upper Niger: an uncertain future It is highly important to guarantee water resources in the semi-arid regions of countries like Mali, Niger and, to a lesser extent, Nigeria, for several reasons: socio-economics, as Sub-Saharan Africa experiences large demographic increases; and for political stability and development, in a context of climate change with unknown repercussions. These resources are principally situated upstream, in the upper Niger basin. Demographic changes, a variety of installation projects and global change will lead to major alterations to the river and its tributaries in the coming decades. At a broader level, all surface water and humid zones will be increasingly in demand. As a result, it is vital to understand the hydrological cycles and their development over time. These are the objectives of numerous studies carried out by IRD researchers and their partners as part of two major research programmes - NIGER-LOIRE(1) and RESSAC(2). The Niger is the third longest river in Africa. It runs from the Guinea Highlands to the Sahara, and then makes a large loop as it crosses the Sahelian and semi-desert regions, flowing south before emptying into the Atlantic Ocean at the Gulf of Guinea. Management of water resources for the catchment area is handled by an inter-governmental organisation: the Niger Basin Authority, based in Niamey. Partner rearing animals or fishing. This is why thousands of motorised pumps are now used for irrigation in Mali during the dry season and more than 500 small hydraulic installations have been created since 1970 in the Bani sub-catchment basin, the main affluent of the Niger. This is in addition to the growing infrastructures that accompany the increasing anthropisation of catchment areas. Excessive extraction of sand and gravel for urban expansion has removed several centimetres from the riverbed each year in an area of around 150 km around Bamako. According to scientists, the modification of hydrological systems by human activity could eventually have a far more significant impact than the potential effects of climate change. Faced with such major upsets that threaten the balance of the Upper Niger, it is vital to improve our knowledge of the river's current and future hydrological functions, and of water use. This should enable a better exploitation of the river and the establishment of sustainable development projects in these areas. These studies will also provide fresh data to enable the prediction of environmental consequences of human activity and global change. Analysis of the hydrological data for the Upper Niger and its tributaries shows a strong interannual variability in flows, with alternating dry and humid periods. For example, the town of Bamako was partially flooded in 1967 and the water flow in Niamey ground to a halt in 1985. In this context, a return of extreme conditions is entirely plausible. The consequences for people, infrastructures and property are potentially dramatic, as current population levels are much higher and are much closer to water courses. Given this situation, one might assume that climate change was the sole cause of all these calamities. But the climate projection models for rainfall in tropical regions are inconclusive. For the Niger River basin, it is difficult even to agree on the general movement of such developments - whether there is increase or decrease in rainfall - as less than 66% of models are in agreement. Scientists have highlighted the impact of human activities exerting an increasing amount of pressure on the basin. Indeed, if the number of major barrages is still small, the number of small installations has increased, to facilitate irrigation, Henri-Claude Enoumba. Head of research and planning department, Niger Basin Authority. “The lack of primary data and local knowledge mean that it remains difficult to appreciate all the water uses and their impacts arising from major national and regional development and exploitation projects associated with the Niger River. The research that we are undertaking with the IRD relates directly to territorial installations, agricultural development, preservation of ecosystems and the river’s heritage. The“NigerLoire: Governance and Culture” project and the RESSAC programme have placed an emphasis on the urgent necessity to learn more about the river, its tributaries, banks and alluvial plains, to better implement Integrated Water Resource Management for the basin.” Sand mining / Mali Traditional fishing / Mali (1) “Niger-Loire: governance and culture”, operated by UNESCO between 2007 and 2011. (2) “Vulnérabilité des ressources en eau superficielle au Sahel aux évolutions anthropiques et climatiques” coordinated by HydroSciences Montpellier. Contacts: Luc Ferry - UMR G-EAU (IRD/AgroParistech/Cemagref/Cirad/IAMM/Montpellier SupAgro) luc.ferry@ird.fr Jean-Emmanuel Paturel - UMR HSM (IRD/CNRS/Inra/Montpellier SupAgro/université Montpellier 2) jean-emmanuel.paturel@ird.fr Publication: Le fleuve Niger, de la forêt tropicale guinéenne au désert saharien - les grands traits des régimes hydrologiques, Publication IRD et Unesco, 2012. 28 Annual report 2011 Optimising mineral exploration in Africa Partner Assine TSHIBUBUDZE. Witwatersrand University Geological Department, South Africa. “The WAXI project offered an opportunity to better understand African geology and to create an African and international research network. This project has exceeded my expectations, in that I was able to interact with researchers, mining company bosses, and geological surveys from around the world. I am now a lecturer at Witwatersrand University in Johannesburg, and it's my turn to pass on the knowledge that I obtained through the WAXI project.” Contacts: Mark JESSELL and Lenka BARATOUX UMR GET (IRD/CNRS/université Paul Sabatier Toulouse/CNES) mark.jessell@ird.fr lenka.baratoux@gmail.com Publications: Nature Geoscience, Precambrian Research The mining industry is the economic foundation for half of the African nations, particularly those with stable democratic governance such as Botswana, Ghana, Zambia and South Africa. An improvement in the exploration of mineral resources is thus a priority for these African nations, requiring a better understanding of metal-bearing areas and the ways in which these deposits are formed. These are the aims behind the research being carried out by the GET(1) laboratory as part of the WAXI-IXOA(2) programme. In West Africa, mineral exploration is currently intensifying and is accompanied by an increasing demand from countries to discover new deposits. The mineral resources in this region (including iron, phosphate, uranium and gold) have long been of interest to multinational operators from the northern hemisphere, and also to companies from emerging nations, at the forefront of which are firms from China, Brazil and South Africa. In this context, African states must strengthen their knowledge and their skills in order to better exploit their own resources. WAXI-IXOA is an international network that groups together the principal public and private actors in the field of geology applied to mineral exploration in West Africa. Work carried out in this domain focuses on the tectonic changes in the region two billion years ago(3). The variations in the gravitational field recorded between 1960 and 1980 by IRD researchers are of the utmost importance in understanding the subterranean environment. More recently, the World Bank and the European Union have supported programmes for the airborne gathering of geophysical data. This has enabled the creation of a database at a regional level. In this way, analysis of geological data from the field, and in the domains of petrophysics, geomorphology, geochemistry and geochronology, will enable researchers to observe the subterranean “architecture” in West Africa. The IRD is also conducting a research programme for the two- and threedimensional modelling of geophysical data on several scales. This ‘geophysical structure’ will thus enable a better definition of the formations that control mineralisation. At a local level, the same geophysical data is also of immense value for geological cartography, particularly in West Africa, where minerals are found in tropical zones, characterised by almost-impenetrable vegetation, and/ or the sub-Sahelian region, where land weathering can reach depths of up to 100 metres. (1) Géosciences Environnement Toulouse. (2) West African Exploration Initiative: www.waxi2.org. (3) These projects have been specifically carried out in partnership with the University of Ouagadougou, the University of Ghana, Cheikh Anta Diop University in Senegal and Witwatersrand University in South Africa. Aeromagnetic map / Ivory Coast - Ghana In collaboration with the Cheikh Anta Diop University in Senegal and the University of Ouagadougou, scientists are also carrying out dynamic analysis, which includes the pathways and chronology of minerals, fluids and heat. This is how the ‘anatomy’ of subterranean West Africa can be deciphered, through the application of thermodynamic calculations based on mineralogy and chemistry of rocks, in order to calculate the temperature and pressure conditions at the point of their creation and deformation. These works are the result of a genuine partnership between the State, the private sector and civil society, and enable improved exploration methods and the enhancement of data and activities from local geological services. The project also includes a major training programme for African geologists. Copper mine / Zambia Annual report 2011 29 Climate and agriculture in West Africa Food safety is an important concern in Sub-Saharan Africa, where almost one third of the population suffers from malnutrition. The future of this region thus depends on the agricultural sector's ability to guarantee sufficient production for a population that is increasing rapidly, despite the threat of climate change that could have negative repercussions on crop productivity. A multidisciplinary study, including climatologists, agronomists and economists, has for the first time quantified the revenue that could be obtained by farmers if they adjusted their agricultural strategy to climate predictions. Rural populations in West Africa are particularly vulnerable to the uncertainties of climate as agricultural activity strongly depends on monsoon rainfall that can vary greatly from one year to the next. Indeed, since the 1970s, the major famines have been partially caused by the effects of climate irregularities that have led to deficits in agricultural production. As a result, Sahelian farmers have developed a wide range of practices to attenuate the risk of bad harvests linked to drought, but their adjustments leave little room for risk-taking and restrict average yields and revenue, even with favourable precipitation. This strategy has led to restricted development of activities and maintains their level of poverty. In this context, a better anticipation of climate fluctuations would enable farmers to adapt their strategies - the cereals they cultivate, optimal sowing dates, use or non-use of fertilisers - and thus to increase their yields. Since 1998, the predictions for the following rainy season(1) have been published in spring in each West African nation by national meteorological organisations. But this information rarely reaches farmers. A study based on 18 years of climate predictions, from 1990 to 2007, has enabled researchers from the LOCEAN(2) laboratory and their partners(3) to model millet productivity and farmers' revenues with climate predictions taken into account, in the Niamey region of Niger. Several scenarios have been created according to the precision of these forecasts. As such, even under the current system, which does not provide much information, revenue could be increased by up to 7% if producers take predictions into account to adjust their farming strategy, even during unfavourable years. In addition, a more efficient system could improve revenue by up to 11%, and accurate predictions for the start and end dates of the rainy season would increase gains by 31%. Partner These results thus confirm the important benefits to be gained from improving both climate and meteorological prediction systems on the one hand, and the dissemination of information (via the media, the Internet and radio etc.) to Sahelian producers on the other. Elsewhere, a combination of this information with farming insurance that would guarantee indemnity in seasons with insufficient rainfall, would enable farmers to adopt a more opportunistic strategy, taking greater risks for greater return. In this way, climate and meteorological projections could not only provide warnings and minimise the consequences of climate irregularities on crops, but also offer populations the opportunity to capitalise on more favourable climatic periods and to develop their activities. Millet market / Niger Millet field / Niger (1) Presao (Prévisions saisonnières des pluies en Afrique de l’Ouest) is an annual forum that produces each May a forecast of the expected rainfall between July and September. (2) Laboratoire d'océanographie et du climat. (3) This project is carried out in partnership with Cirad, Cired and the Centre régional Agrhymet. Dr Agali ALHASSANE. Centre régional Agrhymet, Niamey. “This study has been carried out using the SARRA-H model to simulate millet yields using different rainy season forecast scenarios. The confirmation of this model in practice was the initial objective of the Agrhymet regional project, implementing a system for data collection from farm plots. Promoting the advantages of seasonal rainfall forecasts and the start and end dates of the season reinforces the Agrhymet's strategic investment in producing these forecasts and making them available to producers in Sudano-Sahelian regions of West Africa.” Contacts: Benjamin Sultan UMR LOCEAN (IRD/CNRS/Muséum national d’histoire naturelle/université Pierre et Marie Curie-Paris 6) benjamin.sultan@ird.fr Philippe roudier - Cired roudier@centre-cired.fr Publication: International Journal of Climatology 30 Annual report 2011 Improving public health in the South Population health is a major issue, and at the centre of the Millennium Development Goals. The fight against infectious diseases, the improvement of maternal and infant health and nutrition are all equally important subjects for the IRD and its partners. Aids and malaria are still the two major concerns for the Southern nations. The emergence of new illnesses, whether viral or bacterial, and the persistence of lesser-known illnesses, such as leishmaniasis, trypanosomiasis or Chagas disease, are also of equally pressing concern. In addition, whilst undernutrition is still affecting several countries, others are experiencing increases in obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular illnesses and certain cancers that previously were only to be found in industrialised nations. In this context, researchers are carrying out multidisciplinary studies to improve our understanding of the processes associated with infection, the means of diagnosis and patient treatment and care. Several shared research platforms have thus been created, such as the Centre national d'expertise sur les vecteurs in Montpellier, and the LAMIVECT mixed international laboratory in Burkina Faso and the LLIP mixed international laboratory in Benin, both dedicated to the study of vector-borne diseases. Anthropological and socio-economic aspects are also studied to enable the creation of healthcare policies that are more efficient and adapted to local contexts. engineers and 119 99 researchers technicians 507 articles Annual report 2011 31 Nutritional transition in North Africa The increase in chronic illnesses linked to changes in lifestyle and eating habits is an increasingly pressing concern in the countries of the Mediterranean basin. Researchers from the NUTRIPASS(1) unit are studying this nutritional transition in the Maghreb in order to optimise information and prevention campaigns and improve population health. While undernutrition remains a vital concern in numerous Southern countries, a certain number of these face problems of chronic illnesses caused by new dietary habits and changes in lifestyle, as found in industrialised nations. As part of growing urbanisation, foods increasingly rich in energy, sugar and fats (especially soft drinks), in tandem with an increasingly sedentary lifestyle, are increasingly found to be factors that lead to obesity, weight problems, and the appearance of chronic illnesses such as Type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular illnesses and some cancers. Adolescents in these countries are particularly vulnerable due to their lifestyle and the physiological and psychological changes they experience. As a result, IRD researchers and their partners(2) have been investigating the eating habits of adolescents between 15 and 19 years old in Tunisia. Detailed analysis of their consumption has revealed a disparity of situations, ranging from a traditional profile to a more modern diet. If a modern profile is characterised by an excess of fat and sugar, it is also more varied and does reduce certain nutritional deficiencies. For example, it seems to reduce the risks of hypertension in young girls (associated with a greater consumption of dairy products). So the new eating habits do not always have negative consequences. Partner In addition to food consumption itself, inactivity is also a major risk factor for obesity. Other activities from the Obe-Maghreb(3) programme have demonstrated the harmful effects of television and video games on the corpulence of adolescent Tunisians. For greater efficiency, nutritional education should thus recommend a change in behaviour, and regular physical activity in particular. The general context of malnutrition by excess does not exclude nutritional deficiencies, especially concerning micronutrients. The ObeMaghreb programme has shown that one female out of four in Morocco, and one out of five in Tunisia, are overweight and iron deficient at the same time. The so-called double burden of malnutrition should also be included in overall preventative measures. Obesity and diseases of civilisation are not uniquely found in developed countries. They are increasing in a spectacular fashion in North Africa, particularly in cities, and are a major public health concern. These studies of risk factors for chronic illnesses in populations, and the analysis of the responses and conditions that would allow for their reduction, have presented new data to enable the implementation of appropriate preventative policies. (1) Prévention des malnutritions et pathologies associées. (2) Study carried out in collaboration with the Institut national de nutrition et de technologie alimentaire (INNTA) and the Institut national de santé publique (INSP) in Tunisia, as part of the implementation of data for the European TAHINA “Transition and Health Impact in North Africa” programme. (3) “Comprendre la transition nutritionnelle au Maghreb pour contribuer à la prévention de l'obésité et des maladies non transmissibles associées” carried out in partnership with the INNTA (Tunisia), Ibn Tofaïl University (Morocco) and Nottingham University. Professor Jalila el Ati. Institut national de nutrition et de technologie alimentaire, Tunis. “Managing the problems caused by advancing nutritional transition in Tunisia has become a national priority. The new concern for the nation is to control the evolution of this transition and its human and economic impact. Our partnership with the IRD’s NUTRIPASS research unit has given the opportunity for INNTA researchers to develop their skills to better understand the healthcare, nutrition and dietary situation. It also offers the opportunity to enrich our scientific understanding through training (researcher exchanges) and monitor the results of this research.” Contacts: Francis Delpeuch, Agnès Gartner and Pierre Traissac UMR NUTRIPASS (IRD/universités Montpellier 1 et Montpellier 2) francis.delpeuch@ird.fr agnes.gartner@ird.fr pierre.traissac@ird.fr Food market / Tunisia Tunis city centre Publications: Nutrition Journal, Annals of Nutrition and Metabolism. 32 Annual report 2011 Identifying the causes of fever in West Africa Fever is the main reason for consultation in Africa. In addition to Plasmodium falciparum, the cause of malaria, numerous other pathogens can cause fever symptoms. Several research programmes exist to study these afflictions, their origin and their evolution, to improve preventative and combative measures. Partner Papa Ndaw. Head Nurse at the Toucar dispensary in Senegal. “By participating in the IDEPATH project, we hope to understand the current situation regarding febrile pathologies other than malaria in the Niakhar area of Senegal, and their impact in terms of morbidity and mortality. We have not yet received the results from all of the data we have collected, but we hope that they will enable better treatment of these pathologies.” Contacts: Éric Leroy UMR MiVEGEC (IRD/universités Montpellier 1 et Montpellier 2 /CNRS) eric.leroy@ird.fr Cheikh Sokhna et Oleg Mediannikov UMR URMITE (IRD/ Inserm/ CNRS /université de la Méditerrannée-Aix-Marseille 2) cheikh.sokhna@ird.fr Oleg.Mediannikov@ird.fr Publications: Journal of Virology, Clinical Microbiology and Infection, PLoS Pathog, Journal of Infectious Diseases, PLoS Negl Trop Dis, J Infect Dis, Euro Surveill. The IDEPATH(1) project, led by researchers from the URMITE(2) unit, is using molecular biology techniques aiming to diagnose and identify all bacteria causing fever in five areas of Senegal, in order to improve patient treatment. Laboratories have thus been set up in order to study the samples collected daily in health centres. The initial results from the programme have highlighted the presence of infections including some rickettsioses, tick-borne recurring borreliosis, Whipple's disease and Q fever. More than a quarter of cases of nonmalarial fever examined can be attributed to these little-known bacteria and to their potentially fatal consequences in the absence of appropriate antibiotic treatment. IRD researchers and their partners have suggested establishing systematic treatment using antibiotics where fever is not due to malaria. This would enable prior treatment for numerous febrile diseases. The research has also demonstrated the necessity of measuring the frequency of these complaints, to develop new diagnostic tools enabling their rapid detection on a large scale and to define the strategies for combining therapeutic treatment with malaria. Fever is often frequently linked to other symptoms such as rheumatic, respiratory, digestive, neurological or haematic impairment. These complex clinical conditions are often caused by viruses. The MIVEGEC(3) unit is studying these illnesses in the tropical forests of Africa in order to better understand and predict the risks of new strains emerging. An analysis platform has been created in Gabon(4) which allows patient diagnosis according to their symptoms. Fever linked to rheumatic disorders might be caused by Dengue or Chikungunya. These two illnesses are spread by the same vector, the tiger mosquito, and the number of co-infected patients is increasing. Immunological analysis has demonstrated the importance of an innate response in controlling Chikungunya infection. Where fever is linked to haemorrhages, the Ebola, Marburg or Crimean-Congo virus may be at cause. Researchers have identified and characterised the 2 most recent Ebola epidemics in the DRC(5) and demonstrated that a “superantigenic” (1) The “identification of emerging pathogens” project is carried out in collaboration with the Institut Pasteur de Dakar and the ministère de la Santé et de la Prévention in Senegal. (2) Research unit working on emerging infectious and tropical diseases. (3) Maladies infectieuses et vecteurs - écologie, génétique, évolution et contrôle. (4) This research has been carried out in collaboration with the Centre international de recherches médicales in Franceville, the Institut Pasteur and the ministère des Affaires étrangères et européennes. (5) Democratic Republic of Congo. effect may be the origin of the destruction of the immune cells linked to patient mortality. They have also discovered the Crimean-Congo virus in the DRC, more than 50 years after the last recorded case. Lastly, they have detected bats infected by the Marburg virus in Gabon, with the threat of future epidemics not far behind. Fever can also be accompanied by neurological symptoms that might, for example, be caused by poliomyelitis. A powerful epidemic affected Pointe Noire in Congo-Brazzaville in 2010 and could have been caused by a viral strain that is not covered by the vaccine. Environmental changes, displaced populations and the colonisation of new territories favour the emergence of infectious diseases whose effects on population health can be devastating. Developing countries pay a heavy price for these infections that, if they were better known and diagnosed, could be treated more effectively. The different studies conducted by the IRD work towards this aim and will be of much use to governments when implementing appropriate healthcare policies. Emerging illnesses / Gabon Epidemiological survey / Gabon Annual report 2011 33 Combating HIV/Aids in Thailand Since the start of the HIV epidemic in Asia, Thailand has been one of the most seriously affected countries. Out of 67 million inhabitants, almost 600,000 are infected with the virus. Despite remarkable progress made and the creation of prevention campaigns, a small number of children are still at risk of infection from their mothers at birth. As part of the PHPT(1), researchers from the “Épidémiologie clinique, santé mère-enfant et VIH en Asie du Sud-Est” unit are studying the perinatal transmission of the virus in order to improve treatments, in a context of limited resources. The PHPT clinical research group in Thailand includes a network of more than 50 public hospitals and a coordination centre for logistics, administration, data processing and training, with a laboratory dedicated to virology and pharmacology and a pharmacy for clinical trials. Several clinical trials have been conducted in order to optimise combined drug treatments while reducing the risk of developing resistance to antiretrovirals that might compromise their effectiveness. A basic treatment with Zidovudine during the first trimester of pregnancy and one dose of Nevirapine during labour can help to prevent infection from HIV-1 in 98% of children. This combination is frequently used in developing countries. Nevertheless, HIV can mutate to adapt to certain female patients, and develop a resistance to Nevirapine. In order to optimise these methods, researchers have administered antiretrovirals during the weeks following treatment with Nevirapine and demonstrated that such combinations can prevent mutations. The group is also working on triple therapies for infected persons. Where they are totally effective, virus production is halted. In cases of resistance, they react less well and the virus becomes resistant to an increasing amount of molecules over time. Resistance thus needs to be detected rapidly. Two monitoring methods have been compared in over 700 patients. The first highly sensitive but more expensive method involves detecting all instances of viral resurgence in patients. The second method, more commonly available in developing countries, verifies that immunodeficiency is not present. The two are seen to be equally efficient. Another study has revealed that some drug combinations used in the first line of treatment can maintain a greater choice of alternative therapies should they fail. Partner Wasna Sirirungsi. Dean of the Faculty of Associated Medical Science, Chiang Mai University. HIV/ Thailand Papillomavirus / Thailand Several pharmacokinetic(2) studies have been carried out, particularly among pregnant women and children, as the recommended doses of some drugs in the West can be excessive for Asian patients, for reasons that remain unclear (lower average weight, genetics). The aim is to better understand the way the drugs work and their outcome in the organism to adjust quantities, the means of administration and the duration of treatment. “Our collaboration with IRD 174/PHPT has enabled a considerable reduction in the number of cases of paediatric Aids in Thailand. During the past 10 years, our work has focused on HIV. We are now using the experience gained with HIV for other infectious diseases caused by the hepatitis B virus or the human papillomavirus, which are major health problems in South East Asia” Researchers are also interested in the relationship between perinatal transmission of HIV and the Cytomegalovirus (CMV). In-utero infection of children by CMV seems to favour the transmission of HIV from mother to child. The fight against the HIV/Aids pandemic is seen as a major issue on the international stage. It forms part of political agendas for all major organisations and it is the 6th Millennium Development Goal as set out by the United Nations. The research activity carried out by the IRD and its partners in Thailand has already enabled the WHO and the Thai Public Health ministry to implement national prevention and control policies. These advances will be added to the new national directives for optimising treatment and combating the disease. (1) The “Programme for HIV Prevention and Treatment” or PHPT brings together researchers from the IRD, Chiang Mai University in Thailand and the School of Public Health at Harvard University in the US. (2) Studying the outcome of the drug in the organism. Contact: Gonzague Jourdain UMI IRD-PHPT (Chiang Mai university/Harvard University/IRD) gonzague.jourdain@ird.fr Publications: Clinical Infectious Diseases, Plos One, Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, Ther Drug Monit. 34 Annual report 2011 Understanding social evolution in the South Contemporary societies in Southern countries are constantly developing. However, increases in economic exchanges and globalisation have led to the appearance of major inequalities, between North and South, but also between Southern countries. The social science research carried out by the IRD and our partners focuses on three major themes: development of governance; vulnerabilities, inequalities and growth; and social and spatial boundaries and dynamics. Experts including anthropologists, economists, geographers, demographers, historians, linguists and sociologists are all attempting to decipher the human and social factors at the heart of development. This research, developed on a local and a transnational scale, encourages dialogue with social actors. It enables an understanding of the foundations on which Southern societies are built, particularly through studies, among many others, of migration, miscegenation, heritage preservation, religious movements and social inequalities. It questions the current and future social transformations that Southern societies are experiencing in all their diversity. 178 researchers 48 engineers and technicians 512 books and articles Annual report 2011 35 Memories of slavery, miscegenation and multiculturalism From Mexico to France, passing through the Caribbean and Sub-Saharan Africa, research that carried out as part of the Afrodesc(1) and Eurescl(2) programmes between 2008 and 2011 has brought together researchers form North and South, with the shared objective of analysing the foundations of the identities and communities that resulted from slavery and the subsequent waves of immigration. The results were presented at the L'autre métissage, nation, ethnicité, inégalités (Amérique, Caraïbes, France) conference. For three centuries, the triangular commerce between Europe, Africa and the Americas deported millions of Africans across the Atlantic. These traumatic events were the foundation of colonial and post-colonial societies in the North and the South. IRD researchers and their partners(3) have studied how these population movements resulting from slavery and its abolition, in addition to colonial rivalries and American capitalism in the 19th century, have created the nations of today. What is the status of black populations today, and what are the policies for their recognition in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, and even mainland France? Discussions of race and racialisation and their links with enslavement; enquiry into multicultural policies in relation to the unequal relationship between the North and South and national development; analysis of the cultural practices associated with peoples of African descent, and their significance and transformation… Such were the major themes of the Afrodesc programme, which also aimed to establish teaching materials on the subject of slavery, and carry out a comparative analysis between the theory and method of racism. The link to the Eurescl projects arose from questions of citizenship and multiculturalism. In Latin America, this multidisciplinary approach has notably revealed multiple diasporas existing in tandem with the original black diaspora resulting from the slave trade. Such is the case for the “Afro-Caribbean” population that resulted from the wave of economic migration to the West Indies in the late 19th century, or the “Garifunas”, the descendents Partner Nahayeilli Juarez Huet. Anthropologist, CIESAS Peninsular, Mérida. Mural / Cuba of Native American and African populations. In Mexico, the African presence was of great importance from the very start of colonial times, considered by some as the “third race” of the national identity, alongside European and Amerindian origins. They are, in reality, a multitude of “roots” at the origin of the Mexican peoples. They are highlighted in L’autre métissage, a photographic exhibition that forms part of these research programmes. The pooling of studies carried out in Latin America and France has also fed into discussions by scientists on questions of miscegenation, multiculturalism and citizenship. So in Latin America, organisations of peoples of African descent have sought for civic recognition, but such assertions are often subject to criticism and the rejection of miscegenation as the foundation of national identity. In France, they have contributed to debates on the republican model of equal citizenship. In both cases, these questions have been widely ideologised and are becoming a political issue. During the last four years, many seminars have been organised on both sides of the Atlantic. The results have been the subject of numerous articles and group publications, an exhibition and two videos. The Afrodesc and Eurescl programmes have thus helped to open new channels for scientific and civic discussion on the collective memory of slavery, miscegenation, racism and multiculturalism, which can only increase in number in years to come. “The Afrodesc and Eurescl programmes have been notable in opening up a field of research that was previously unheard of in Mexico, concerning populations of African descent, and in particular the circulation of their cultural expression, which is growing in importance both nationally and internationally. Diverse academic activities have allowed such advances: multi-site conferences and seminars, publication of working documents and articles, the travelling festival of research videos. The consolidation of the cooperation between CIESAS and the IRD has facilitated such exchanges and alliances between researchers, and also training for students from the countries concerned.” Cultural diversity / Mexico (1) ANR-AIRD Programme Afrodesc-Afrodescendants et esclavage: domination, identification et héritages dans les Amériques (xve-xxie siècle). (2) European FP7 Eurescl-Slave Trade, Slavery, Abolitions and their Legacies in European Histories and Identities. (3) Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7; Université de Nice Sophia Antipolis; CIRESC (GDRI du CNRS); Centre d’études mexicaines et centre-américaines (CEMCA); Instituto Nacional de Antropología e Historia, Centro de Investigación y Educación Superior en Antropología Social (CIESAS), Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; Universidad de Cartagena. Contacts: Elisabeth Cunin and Odile Hoffmann UMR URMIS (IRD/université Paris diderot-Paris 7/ Université Nice-Sophia Antipolis) elisabeth.cunin@ird.fr • odile.hoffmann@ird.fr Publications: Les traites et les esclavages. Perspectives historiques et contemporaines, Paris, Karthala, 2010. Política e identidad. Afrodescendientes en México y América Central, Mexique, INAH-UNAM-CEMCA-IRD, 2010 Exposition de photographies et catalogue L’autre métissage. 36 Annual report 2011 The economic and democratic transition in Tunisia Partner Mohammed Haddar. Chairman of the Association of Tunisian Economists. “The Association of Tunisian Economists aims to animate scientific and economic research by developing our cooperation with international partners. We have organised seminars and conferences. For many years, IRD researchers have participated in some of these events and the doctoral colleges. The Arab Spring is a historic point of transformation that requires new instruments for analysis and understanding. For this reason we are going to develop the Observatoire des transformations du monde arabe (OTMA) in collaboration with the IRD.” 2011 will be remembered as the year of the “Arab revolutions”. It began a new era of economic and democratic transition with an uncertain outcome, that would fundamentally question ideas of development and social and political transformation, implicating not only the internal institutional and socio-economic forces, but also the nature of trans-Mediterranean partnerships. In order to assist Tunisia with these decisive transformations, the IRD, the Association of Tunisian Economists and the Collège international des sciences du territoire have gathered together experts from around the world in Hammamet. The events in Tunisia marked the beginning of an unprecedented revolution in many countries in North Africa. The explosion of anger, which initially erupted among the Tunisian youth and spread across all social classes, was fed by profound inequalities and regional disparities in development and a shared sense of injustice. All rejected the corruption and deprivation of liberties caused by the regime, which crumbled after 24 years in power. Profound changes now need to be initiated by Tunisia. But how to emerge from a corrupt economy to create an economy based on knowledge and innovation. What are the political, economic and social dimensions that enable the transition from a dictatorial regime to a democracy? In the light of similar experiences in Argentina, Chile, Spain, Greece, Portugal, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Poland, international experts have gathered together to respond to the issues arising from these transformations and to offer Tunisia possible avenues towards a successful transition. The historical analysis of past events shows that there are not "one” but “several” forms of democracy and that each country has its own specific trajectory. The complexity of these processes can sometimes lead to unexpected reversals or even surprises such as the emergence of political Islamism. Arab Spring / Tunisia avenues to renew trans-Mediterranean partnerships, particularly by reviving two forgotten dimensions: the sense of Arab identity and the importance of the Islamic context. The evolutions in Tunisia and other North African countries determine the future of the region and of Europe. Despite these issues, the current transformations have taken most researchers in the social sciences by surprise. These changes are thus opening up new fields of investigation for the IRD and Southern partners, who must work together to build concepts and develop multidisciplinary analytical instruments capable of responding to current developments. Regional and territorial aspects have been classified as essential, but infra-national analytical tools are very limited in the Arab world. A new approach, integrating historical, anthropological and socio-political dimensions, will enable a better understanding of these phenomena. The transitions are slow processes which are constantly evolving. Long-term stability can require a certain number of compromises that integrate elements of the old administration, such as in Poland or Spain. Elsewhere, the perspective of European integration was decisive for the Eastern European countries following the fall of the Berlin Wall. This gives the possibility of offering Contact: Jean-Yves Moisseron UMR développement et sociétés (IRD/université Panthéon-Sorbonne-Paris 1) jean-yves.moisseron@ird.fr Traditional life / Tunis Publication: La transition économique et démocratique en Tunisie. Leçons des expériences passées. L’Harmattan, 2012. Annual report 2011 37 Declining fertility, an economic lever for Sub-Saharan Africa Since the start of the 1990s, several West African nations have seen their GDP increase per inhabitant, the first signs of economic growth after several decades of decline. But with fertility rates among the highest in the world and 30-50% of the population still living in poverty, this progression is not enough to meet these nations' needs. With mothers giving birth to 5 children on average, the population of SubSaharan Africa was 860 million in 2010. By 2050, the figure could reach between 1.5 and 2 billion inhabitants, if fertility drops to 2 or 3 births per woman. According to a vast study carried out in 12 West African countries, issues relating to population control are very important: capability in terms of healthcare and education, better food security, the deployment of effective sustainable development policies to preserve the environment, conflict prediction, and a guarantee of security for inhabitants and their property. However, strategies implemented in the past 20 years have not succeeded in controlling the major population growth in West Africa. This can be attributed to limited political, financial and human resources, and also by the fact that these have mostly attempted to deal with the more urgent challenges of mother-infant healthcare or the prevention and treatment of HIV/Aids. As such, access to family planning services is limited, despite a strong demand. Indeed, only 10 to 20% of women in relationships have access to contraception, whereas 30 to 60% demand it. Partner active workforce - thus releasing the resources necessary to improve the levels of population healthcare and education and invest in productive sectors. By contrast, continuing with current trends will render universal access to healthcare, education for all and control of food security more difficult. A wider use of contraception would require current spending allocated to family planning services to be multiplied between 3 and 5 times. Nevertheless, this could be counterbalanced by substantial savings that would be made in government spending on at-risk pregnancies and the costs associated with the twofold increase in pregnancies over the next twenty years if current trends continue unchecked. Controlling fertility, reducing population growth and dependency ratios will not in themselves be sufficient actions to initiate developmental processes. But these conditions are part of a wider range of measures that are required for the nations of West Africa to progress with demographic transition and become emerging nations themselves. The increasing use of contraception thus corresponds to women’s needs, but is also an important lever which West African nations could use to meet the socio-economic challenges they will face in the coming decades. It is this progressive stabilisation of the annual birth rate that has enabled emerging nations to reduce their dependency ratio - the number of people not working in relation to the Dr Issaka Maga Hamidou. Abdou Moumouni University, Niamey. “This study is a first in Niger. It presents convincing arguments on the negative effects of extreme population growth in several areas, and how it can make the public authorities’ task increasingly difficult, particularly in the fields of food, healthcare and education. Indeed, these requirements will increase more rapidly than financial resources and the government’s investment capability. This project suggests potential solutions, notably, though not exclusively, by slowing down population growth through decreased fertility rates.” Contact: Jean-Pierre Guengant UMR “Développement et sociétés” (IRD/université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne) guengant@hotmail.fr Market / Senegal Family planning clinic / Senegal Publication: à Savoir n° 9 | Comment bénéficier du dividende démographique ? La démographie au centre des trajectoires de développement / How to capitalize on the Demographic Dividend? Demographics at the heart of development pathways - AFD/IRD 2011.