Analyzing Political Data
Course
Political Science I
Unit VII
Research
Methods
(Statistics)
Essential
Question
How is political
data analyzed?
TEKS
§130.183(c)
(11)(A)(B)
Prior Student
Learning
Methods for
Conducting
Political Research
Estimated Time
3 to 5 Hours
Rationale
This lesson introduces students to analyzing political data and how political
data affects the decision-making process.
Objectives
The students will be able to:
1. Collect samples from public opinion polls
2. Measure public opinion from public opinion polls
3. Determine how public opinion polls influence politics
Engage
Conduct an Internet search for the following key words: real clear politics,
latest polls. Using this website, show students recent public opinion polls that
have been conducted in regards to elections and the State of the Union.
Then create a dialogue with the students about whether these polls are
accurate and ask students how public opinion polling affects individuals and
institutions. Use the Discussion Rubric for assessment.
Key Points
I. What role does the information gathered from polling play?
A. Political data
1. Information from polling plays an integral role in the political
events at the local, state, and national levels
2. Polls can assist decision-makers in
a) Determining candidates
b) Developing effective campaign strategies
c) Proposing legislation
3. Political candidates, political parties, news organizations, and
private organizations can all conduct polls to gather information
4. Public opinion polls were first invented by George Gallup in 1932
a) Public opinion polls are much more accurate today compared
to 1932 because they are more scientific and survey carefully
selected samples
B. Process of conducting polls
1. Those conducting the poll must determine the population they are
targeting for the survey
a) Population is the group of people whose opinions are of
interest and about whom information is desired
2. A sample of 1,000-1,500 people can accurately represent all
potential voters
3. The key to conducting accurate polls is random sampling, which
operates on the principle that everyone should have an equal
probability of being selected as a part of the sample
4. With polls this size, polls are usually 95 percent accurate of being
within 3 percent of what the entire population thinks (Edwards,
Wattenberg, & Lineberry, 2011)
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II. How is public opinion measured?
A. Public opinion
1. Polling the public
a) Public opinion consists of the public’s expressed views about
an issue at a specific point in time
b) Public opinion and ideology of the public are linked because
ideology is the lens through which people view political issues
c) Political scientist Elizabeth Noelle-Neumann argued that
public opinion itself is a socializing agent in that it provides an
independent context that affects political behavior (Harrison &
Harris, 2011, p. 195)
d) Public opinion manifests in various ways, but public opinion
polls are important tools used by policy makers to get an
indicator of the public’s opinion
(1) A public opinion poll is a survey of a given population’s
opinion on an issue at a particular point in time
e) Random sampling is a method of poll selection that gives
each person in a group the same chance of being selected
B. Sampling techniques
1. Quota sampling
a) Is a scientifically sophisticated method of sampling rather than
random sampling
b) A pollster structures the sample so that it is representative of
the characteristics of the target population
c) This data is usually collected from census data
(1) For example, if census data states that 40 percent of the
population is white, then 40 percent of the target sample
should be considered white
d) Since this might make participants uncomfortable, it is better
to collect demographic information at the end of the poll
2. Stratified Sampling
a) The national population is divided into fourths and certain
areas within these regions are selected as representative of
the national population
b) Larger organizations and media polls now use stratified
sampling
c) Stratified sampling is the most reliable form of random
sampling (Harrison & Harris, 2011, p. 200)
d) Nearly every major polling organization relies on US census
data as the basis of its four sampling regions
e) Stratified sampling is the basis for much of the public opinion
data used by political scientists and other social scientists
III. How does public opinion polling affect politics?
A. Role of polls
1. Results of polls
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a) Polls help political candidates detect public preferences
b) Polls help policymakers to keep in touch with changing
opinions on the issues
c) If the polls reflect a shift, then the government officials can
make corresponding midcourse corrections
d) Polls can also create a bandwagon effect, which means that
the population will support a certain candidate or legislation
merely because a majority of people are doing so
2. Public opinion about the government
a) Analysts of public opinion and government officials are
concerned with public opinion about the government at all
levels
b) Public opinion researchers are often asked to rate their level
of trust in the government in regards to domestic/international
policy and the executive, legislative, and judicial branches
(1) The responses to these questions are important for
several reasons; for instance, they measure opinions
about the federal institution rather than the individual
c) The levels of trust in the government often rise and fall over
time depending on circumstances like the economy, war,
social issues, etc.
B. Public opinion and policymaking
1. Public opinion polling and democracy
a) Policy makers are very responsive to public opinion polls
b) Political scientists Shapiro and Page show that when the
public supports a policy change, the following occurs: policy
changes in a direction consistent with the change in public
opinion (Schmidt, Shelley, Bardes & Ford, p. 237)
c) Shapiro and Page also state that when public opinion
changes by 20 percentage points or more, the government
policy is much more likely to follow the changing public
attitudes (Schmidt, Shelley, Bardes, & Ford, 2012, p. 237)
2. Setting limits on government action
a) Public opinion polls cannot give exact guidance on what the
government should do in a specific instance
b) Given the distribution of certain results, most elected officials
would rather not try to change policy to favor either of the
extreme positions
c) Public opinion polls can only give policymakers a limited
amount of guidance when it comes to decision making
d) Policymakers must make their own choices when it comes to
creating legislation
Activities
Conducting a Public Opinion Poll – Have the students decide the content of
their public opinion polls (e.g. presidential job approval, legislation, social
changes, possible presidential candidates). Then have the students develop
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a set of 15 questions to use to conduct their public opinion polls. These
questions must not be biased toward the participant so that the student may
obtain accurate results. Have the students poll 20 people. The participants
must accurately reflect the demographics of the US. Then have the students
record the responses and analyze the data to determine percentages. Use
the Individual Work Rubric for assessment.
Assessments
Analyzing Political Data Quiz and Key
Discussion Rubric
Individual Work Rubric
Research Rubric
Materials
Analyzing Political Data computer-based presentation
Analyzing Political Data Key Terms
Computers with Internet access or other resources for conducting research
Resources
Edwards, George, Martin Wattenberg, and Robert Lineberry. Government in
America: People, Politics and Policy. 15. New York City: Longman,
2011. Chapter 17 & 21. Print.
Harrison, Brigid, and Jean Harris. American Democracy Now. 2. New York
City: McGrawHill Company, 2011. Chapter 15 & 18. Print.
O'Conner, Karen, Larry Sabato, and Alixandra Yanus. American
Government: Roots and Reform. 2011. New York City: Longman, 2011.
Chapter 4 & 18. Print.
Patterson, Thomas. The American Democracy. 9th. New York City: McGraw
Hill Higher Education, 2009. Ch. 15 & 18. Print.
Schmidt, Steffan, Mack Shelley, Barbara Bardes, and Lynne Ford. American
Government and Politics Today. 2011-2012. Boston: Wadsworth
Cenage Learning, 2012. Chapter 17 &19. Print.
Accommodations for Learning Differences
For reinforcement, students will create a graphic organizer of each type of
public opinion poll indicating the characteristics of each type of public opinion
poll. Use the Individual Work Rubric for assessment.
For enrichment, students will write a 2-3-page paper about the history of
public opinion polling. Use the Research Rubric for assessment.
State Education Standards
Texas Essential Knowledge and Skills for Career and Technical Education
§130.183. Political Science I (One to Two Credits).
(11) The student applies the concepts of statistical analysis to
political science. The student is expected to:
(A)
examine concepts used in research such as theories,
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(B)
hypotheses, independent and dependent variables,
sampling, reliability, validity, and generalizability; and
interpret statistical data such as in political science
journals, public opinion polls, and surveys.
College and Career Readiness Standards
Social Studies Standards
IV. Analysis, Synthesis, and Evaluation of Information
B. Research and methods
3. Gather, organize, and display the results of data and research.
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Analyzing Political Data Key Terms
Internet poll – using the Internet to conduct scientific sampling to predict outcomes
Political trust – the degree to which individuals express trust in the government and political
institutions, usually measured through a specific series of survey questions
Public opinion – the public’s expressed views about an issue at a specific point in time
Public opinion poll – a survey of a given population’s opinion on an issue or a candidate at a
particular point in time
Push poll – a special type of poll that both provides information to campaigns about candidate
strengths and weaknesses and attempts to skew public opinion about a candidate
Quota sampling – a method by which pollsters structure a sample so that it is representative of
the characteristics of the target population
Sampling – a relatively small proportion of people who are chosen in a survey so as to be
representative of the whole
Stratified sampling – a process of random sampling in which the national population is divided
into fourths and certain areas within these regions are selected as representative of the
national population
Tracking poll – polls that measure changes in public opinion over the course of days, weeks, or
months by repeatedly asking respondents the same questions and measuring changes in
their responses
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Name:_________________________
Date:___________________________
Analyzing Political Data Quiz
1. _____Which of the following was NOT a primary reason that early public opinion polling
was inaccurate?
A Samples were compiled from telephone directories
B Self-selection created survey bias
C Newspaper clients received monetary benefits from survey miscalculations, driving
them to skew results
D The timing of surveys prevented measurement of public sentiment closer to elections
2. _____The method of selection that gives each person in a group an equal chance of
being selected for a survey is known as which of the following?
A Random sampling
B Stratified sampling
C Self-selection
D Margin of error
3. _____Which of the following is a major weakness of public opinion polling?
A Only elite opinion is measured
B Polls are unable to measure the intensity of a respondent’s opinion
C Polls have very large margins of error
D Polls have too many respondents
4. _____The public’s expressed views about an issue at a specific point in time are called
which of the following?
A Time tracked sample
B Time frame analysis
C Stratified sample
D Public opinion
5. _____In a poll, the group of people whose opinions are of interest and/or about whom
information is desired is called which of the following?
A Quota sample
B Target sample
C Population
D Bull’s-eye group
6. _____Which of the following is a method by which pollsters structure a sample so that it
is representative of the characteristics of the target population?
A Target sample
B Quota sample
C Populations
D Bull’s-eye group
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7. _____Which of the following are polls that measure changes in public opinion over the
course of days, weeks, or months by repeatedly asking respondents the same questions
and measuring changes in their responses?
A Exit polls
B Push polls
C Straw polls
D Tracking polls
8. _____Which of the following is a special type of poll that provides information to
campaigns about candidate strengths and weaknesses and attempts to skew public
opinion about a candidate?
A Push poll
B Exit poll
C Tracking poll
D Straw Poll
9. _____Sampling error refers to which of the following?
A Not enough people responding to the poll
B The sample not being representative of the population
C Using random procedure for drawing a sample of the population
D The level of confidence in the findings of a public opinion poll
10. _____Public opinion polls can affect all EXCEPT which of the following?
A Election results
B Population distribution
C Decision-making process
D Proposed legislation
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Analyzing Political Data Quiz Key
1. C
2. A
3. B
4. D
5. C
6. B
7. D
8. A
9. D
10. B
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Name_______________________________________
Date_______________________________
Discussion Rubric
Objectives
4 pts.
Excellent
3 pts.
Good
2 pts. Needs Some
Improvement
1 pt. Needs Much
Improvement
N/A
Pts.
Participates in group discussion
Encourages others to join the
conversation
Keeps the discussion progressing
to achieve goals
Shares thoughts actively while
offering helpful recommendations to
others
Gives credit to others for their ideas
Respects the opinions of others
Involves others by asking questions
or requesting input
Expresses thoughts and ideas
clearly and effectively
Total Points (32 pts.)
Comments:
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Name______________________________________
Date_______________________________________
Individual Work Rubric
4 pts.
Excellent
Objectives
3 pts.
Good
2 pts. Needs Some
Improvement
1 pt. Needs Much
Improvement
N/A
Pts.
Follows directions
Student completed the work as directed,
following the directions given, in order and to the
level of quality indicated
Time management
Student used time wisely and remained on task
100% of the time
Organization
Student kept notes and materials in a neat,
legible, and organized manner. Information was
readily retrieved
Evidence of learning
Student documented information in his or her
own words and can accurately answer questions
related to the information retrieved
*Research/Gathering information (if relevant)
Student used a variety of methods and sources
to gather information. Student took notes while
gathering information
Total Points (20 pts.)
Comments:
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Name______________________________________
Date_______________________________________
Research Rubric
4 pts.
Excellent
Objectives
3 pts.
Good
2 pts. Needs Some
Improvement
1 pt. Needs Much
Improvement
N/A
Pts.
Question/goal
Student identified and communicated a question
or goal of the research
Research/Gathering information (if relevant)
Student used a variety of methods and sources
to gather information. Student took notes while
gathering information
Conclusion/Summary
Student drew insightful conclusions and
observations from the information gathered.
Information is organized in a logical manner
Communication
Student communicated the information gathered
and summary or conclusions persuasively.
Student demonstrated skill in the use of media
used to communicate the results of research
Reflection
Student reflected on the importance of the
research and its potential application
Total Points (20 pts.)
Comments:
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