Business Case: Millennium Village in Northern Ghana
DFID, November 2011
Intervention Summary
What support will the UK provide?
The UK will provide up to £11.5 million over five years, between 2011 and 2016, for the
implementation of a new Millennium Village site to accelerate progress towards achieving the
Millennium Development Goals in the West Mamprusi and Builsa districts of northern Ghana.
Funding for this new Millennium Village will be provided alongside a separate project to
conduct a robust independent evaluation, which will provide independent evidence of the
effectiveness or otherwise of the Millennium Villages approach.
Why is UK support required?
Development in Northern Ghana lags behind the rest of the country. While the number of poor
people in the southern part of Ghana has decreased in the past 20 years by 2.5 million, it has
increased in the North by almost 1 million. Accelerating development in the North is therefore
a central theme of DFID-Ghana’s Operational Plan for 2011-2015.
The Millennium Village Project will deliver an intensive package of interventions to a location
with a population of up to 30,000. The focus is on agricultural productivity, health, education,
infrastructure and enterprise development. Specific interventions include provision of seeds
and fertilizer, distribution of bed nets to reduce malaria, school meals to encourage school
attendance, upgrading of roads, and increasing access to financial services. These are
accompanied by measures to strengthen local communities and increase the capacity of local
government. The Millennium Village model seeks to demonstrate that simultaneously
implementing a series of integrated community-based interventions can enable very poor
communities to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. The integrated approach seeks
to achieve synergies, whereby the total gains are greater than could be achieved through
similar separate interventions.
The project will be implemented by the Millennium Promise Alliance, in collaboration with the
Earth Institute at Columbia University. It forms part of the forward plan of activities being
coordinated by the Government of Ghana’s Savannah Accelerated Development Authority.
What are the expected results?
Up to 30,000 people will benefit directly from improved services and increased opportunities,
leading to dramatically reduced rates of poverty within the Millennium Village site.
The outputs of the project are expected to be:
 Skilled staff delivering improved basic services – for instance aiming to increase the
proportion of births attended by skilled health workers from around 30% to 70%
 Women, men and young people facing fewer barriers to accessing services – for
instance aiming to increase the contraceptive prevalence rate from around 14%
to 40%
 Better connectivity within and beyond the Millennium Village site – such as improved
roads, electricity and mobile phone penetration
 Improved income earning opportunities – such as through increased yields, access to
financial services, and promoting non-farming enterprise
 Strengthened local institutions and community capacity – to increase the involvement
and commitment by the local community and officials, and help to secure
sustainability of the impacts
Funding for this new Millennium Village will be provided alongside a separate project to
conduct a robust independent evaluation. This will expand and validate the Millennium Village
project’s own monitoring and evaluation, with extended survey components and non-survey
monitoring, around the Millennium Village site itself and in selected comparison sites. The
independent evaluation will be designed to continue for 5 years beyond the period of direct
intervention by the Millennium Village project, to assess the sustainability of the impacts
achieved. This will provide strong evidence on the impact and cost effectiveness of the
Millennium Villages model, helping to inform poverty reduction interventions internationally. If
the evaluation shows the model to be effective, then not only will this Millennium Village itself
deliver cost-effective and sustainable results, but it can inform further substantial similar
interventions and possible scaling up of the approach. If, on the other hand, the evidence on
the impact of the approach is less positive, then it will help to ensure that scarce development
resources can be channelled to more effective interventions.
Business Case: Millennium Village in Northern Ghana
DFID, November 2011
STRATEGIC CASE
A. Context and need for DFID intervention
Most people in northern Ghana live below the poverty line
1. Ghana has succeeded in reducing the national rate of
poverty from 52% in 1992 to less than 29% in 20061, and is
well on course to achieve the Millennium Development Goal
(MDG) on halving poverty by 2015. Long-term growth
prospects are positive and, coupled with new oil finds,
Ghana is well placed to cement its new status as a middleincome country. However, Ghana’s success in poverty
reduction is a story predominantly of progress in the south of
the country. The dry northern savannah has continued to
experience persistently high levels of poverty, estimated to
be 69% in 20062. Whilst the number of poor people declined
by 2.5 million in the South, between 1992 and 2006, it
increased by 0.9 million in the North.
Figure 1: poverty map of Ghana. Source: World Bank (2011), based on
2005/6 Ghana Living Standards Survey data.
2. The last twenty years of economic development in Ghana have done little to reduce the NorthSouth divide, in terms of income and consumption, but also in key measures of development such as
education, health, water and sanitation. The most recent assessment3 of Ghana’s progress on the
MDGs shows that it is largely on course to meet most of them, with the exception of those for
maternal mortality, environmental sustainability, and improved sanitation. However, the rate of
national progress masks major variations in progress across the country, with the North still lagging
behind in most of the MDGs.
3. It is clear that to achieve the MDGs in the North, and to bring it to a level of development more in
line with the rest of the country, will require significant and sustained investment. There have been
numerous attempts over the years to reduce the stubbornly high rates of poverty in the North4 but, as
a recent World Bank report on tackling poverty in northern Ghana demonstrates, these have
achieved little sustained improvement thus far5. The Government of Ghana is aware of the major
challenge, and in 2010 created the semi-autonomous Savannah Accelerated Development Authority
(SADA)6. The SADA Strategy, ‘A Sustainable Development Initiative for the Northern Savannah’,
emphasises mobilising and coordinating increased investment from public and private sources in
order to stimulate private sector-led economic growth, along with careful monitoring and evaluation of
development interventions in order to maximise impact7.
4. The Government of Ghana and its development partners are increasing their focus on the North,
for instance through support to unlock its agricultural potential8. Other national efforts, such as the
flagship social protection programme - Livelihoods Empowerment Against Poverty9 (LEAP) - with
World Bank and DFID support, will be scaling up in the North.
Millennium Villages: a different approach to rural poverty reduction
5. As part of their second phase of implementation across Africa, the Millennium Promise Alliance 10
(MPA) has approached DFID to finance a Millennium Village in rural northern Ghana. The proposal 11
is for the design, implementation and monitoring of a 5-year set of integrated interventions to
accelerate development in a cluster of communities of up to 30,000 people. This will be based on the
Millennium Villages model, which MPA regard as a demonstration project with potential to be
substantially scaled up. It represents a different approach to programmes that DFID and other
development partners in Ghana have funded in recent years. Strong evidence is not yet available to
assess whether or not the model represents a cost effective approach, and if the impacts will be
sustained. An independent evaluation of this Millennium Village is therefore planned by DFID to
provide such evidence12.
Why DFID intervention is justified, and relationship to DFID strategy
6. The project would be in line with DFID-Ghana’s new Operational Plan that commits to an
increased focus on the poor North of the country13, and seeks innovative approaches to tackling
poverty reduction.
7. DFID currently supports programmes in the North that are centred on specific MDGs. These
include the School for Life project14 that provides education to out-of-school children to enable them
to re-enter mainstream education, and plans for a programme to boost private enterprise through
market development in the North.
8. This proposal for a new Millennium Village provides an opportunity to directly contribute to
poverty reduction in the North. It is being closely coordinated with the SADA, to which DFID is
providing institutional support, who also see it as an opportunity to learn about approaches with the
potential to dramatically reduce poverty. The Millennium Village forms part of the SADA’s forward
plan of interventions.
9. With the plans for an independent evaluation alongside its implementation, the project fits well
with DFID’s increased emphasis on innovation and testing new approaches to achieve better
development results15. By supporting a new Millennium Village along with additional robust
evaluation, DFID and the SADA will provide evidence that can guide further development
interventions in northern Ghana, influence development policy in Ghana, and inform the international
debate on the effectiveness of the Millennium Villages model. The independent evaluation will
expand and validate the Millennium Village project’s own monitoring and evaluation, within the
Millennium Village site itself and in selected comparison sites. It will involve establishing baselines,
ongoing evaluation during the implementation phase, and continued evaluation after completion of
the 5-years of direct implementation by the Millennium Village project.
B. Impact and Outcome
10. The expected impact is poverty reduction in West Mamprusi and Builsa districts of Northern
Ghana.
11. The project’s outcome is accelerated progress towards the MDGs for up to 30,000 people in the
Millennium Village site.
12. The outputs of the project are expected to include16:
 Skilled staff delivering improved basic services – for instance aiming to increase the
proportion of births attended by skilled health workers from 30% to 70%
 Women, men and young people face fewer barriers to accessing services – for instance
aiming to increase the contraceptive prevalence rate from 14% to 40%
 Improved connectivity within and beyond the Millennium Village site – such as improved
roads, electricity and mobile phone penetration
 Improved income earning opportunities – such as through increased yields, access to
financial services, and promoting non-farming enterprise
APPRAISAL CASE
Feasible options
13. The MPA has approached DFID to fund the implementation of a Millennium Village, which will
be a standard model adapted to the local northern Ghana context. The options considered here are
to fund the Millennium Village or not to do so. There clearly are opportunity costs associated with
committing funds to the Millennium Village, in terms of other uses that the money could be put to.
However, there are no specific alternatives being put forward, nor similar interventions planned to
which the funds could be channelled to achieve comparable outcomes.
14. The Millennium Village site proposed by the MPA in consultation with the Government’s SADA
lies on the border between the Northern and Upper East regions, spanning the two administrative
districts of West Mamprusi and Builsa. This meets the SADA’s requirement that the Millennium
Village should be located in more than one Region, thereby representing a broader northern
savannah intervention. It is possible that the site will shift slightly to also incorporate part of the
Upper West Region; this will be determined during the inception phase. It is estimated that around
70% of the people at the site live below the national poverty line, based on the average for the
region17. Traditional subsistence agriculture remains the dominant source of income and
employment, but crop yields, prices and market access are subject to uncertainty and seasonal
variability. The western part of West Mamprusi is known locally as ‘the overseas’ because it is cut off
from the rest of the district during the rainy season, severely limiting movement, access to markets,
and the delivery of public services18. The area is not associated with conflict, which is a localised
feature in some parts of northern Ghana19.
Figure 2: the proposed Millennium Village site, represented by the communities in red (MPA 2011)
OPTION (1) Reject the proposal
15. Under this option, no additional resource would be delivered specifically to the project area
through DFID funding. The Government of Ghana would continue to provide public services,
possibly at an increased level, in line with their national medium-term development commitments and
the SADA Strategy. However, the site is starting from an extremely low base: current local
government outreach is limited and partly seasonal; low pupil/teacher ratios (with the majority of
teachers being untrained); access to fully-functioning health centres is limited to the two district
capitals; and most people are dependent on surface water sources20. There is no reason to suppose
that this area will receive any more assistance than other parts of the vast northern savannah (which
covers over half of Ghana’s land area).
16. What this option would mean for the selected areas within West Mamprusi and Builsa is
uncertain. Progress towards achieving the MDGs in these areas is likely to remain highly
constrained, despite the huge needs. For instance, Builsa district was reported in 2004 as having
98% of people living in poverty21; while perhaps improbably high, this statistic does indicate the
pervasiveness of poverty. Given the deprived situation of these areas, most people would be likely to
remain in poverty for years to come, with limited access to basic services, low agricultural
productivity, poor access to markets, and inadequate infrastructure.
17. An alternative would be for DFID to provide the same amount of additional funding to other
programmes with a focus on achieving the MDGs in northern Ghana. This represents an opportunity
cost of funding the new Millennium Village – the benefits foregone by not funding alternative
interventions. However, there is not a direct alternative against which to compare this proposal.
Neither are there are alternative options readily available for implementing a comparable type of
project. The appraisal does not therefore assess alternative uses of the funds, but focuses on the
case for whether or not to accept the proposal to fund a new Millennium Village.
OPTION (2) Accept the proposal and fund a new Millennium Village in northern Ghana
18. If DFID agrees to fund the MPA’s proposal then a new Millennium Village will be established to
coincide with the second 5-year phase of the existing Millennium Villages (most of which started in
2006). The MPA will put in place a local project implementation team based in northern Ghana.
Ongoing technical expertise, including on monitoring and evaluation, will be provided through the
MPA’s partnership with Columbia University’s Earth Institute and the associated regional MDG
Centre in Bamako, Mali. Links will also be established with local centres of expertise, particularly the
University for Development Studies with its campuses in northern Ghana. As is standard with the
Millennium Villages model, there will be an initial planning and set-up phase, of around 6 months,
during which a needs assessment and the appropriate sequencing of interventions will be
established. The Millennium Villages team will work closely with local and regional stakeholders
throughout the project, a process that was started in early 2011 and included a workshop in northern
Ghana specifically for such stakeholders in September 2011.
How this will work (the theory of change)
19. West Mamprusi and Builsa districts display characteristics of what Professor Jeffrey Sachs
terms a ‘poverty trap’ deriving from a lack of various forms of capital - notably economic assets and
human development capabilities (health, education, skills)22. He argues that a below-subsistence
standard of living means that survival depends on low or zero financial saving, and depletion of the
natural resource base. Poverty prohibits farmers from increasing their income through improved
agricultural inputs, as they lack finance of their own and it is not feasible to access appropriate credit
from commercial lenders. Risk of catastrophic crop failure, due to insufficient rainfall, flooding, and
pests, adds to the challenge, while lack of inputs leads to soil nutrients becoming depleted after
repeated cropping. It therefore becomes increasingly difficult to break out of this ‘trap’, associated
with low incomes, few assets, and environmental degradation.
20. Sachs’s proposition for addressing the ‘poverty trap’ is intensive, integrated interventions to
tackle a range of development challenges at the same time. The central hypothesis is that a local ‘big
push’ to overcome the most immediate capital deficiencies in communities and households is a
necessary condition for reaching a threshold required to move towards local resilience and selfsustaining economic growth. Key to this is improved agricultural productivity, enabling people in rural
areas to save and accumulate wealth, stimulating investment and diversification into non-farm work.
The ‘big push’ concept, however, is not without its critics23.
21. These ideas, of concerted action to overcome poverty traps, have been taken forward in the
form of Millennium Villages, through the non-profit MPA24. Millennium Villages focus primarily on four
interconnected outputs: agricultural productivity, health, education and infrastructure, as well as a
recently increased emphasis on enterprise development. The required interventions are undertaken
in an integrated way to achieve synergies, whereby the total gains are greater than could be
achieved through similar separate interventions. The interventions do not all start at the same time
but are phased according to local conditions and priorities. The first phase (of around 12–18 months)
generally focuses on the following generic set of interventions, drawing on the set of ‘quick wins’
identified by the UN Millennium Project25, localised as appropriate for each Millennium Village site26:
o Increased food production. Subsidised provision of improved seeds of high-yielding crop
varieties or hybrids, the necessary amounts of mineral and organic fertilizers, and training
on agronomic practices to eliminate ‘hunger months’ and to generate crop surpluses.
o Malaria control. Free distribution of long-lasting insecticide-impregnated bed nets for all
sleeping places, preceded by training and followed by monitoring of use, combined with
access to anti-malaria medicines, to reduce the disease burden of malaria.
o School meals using locally produced food, drawing from the significant increases in local
food production.
o Immunisation and de-worming campaigns.
o Community capacity-building processes to empower villagers to manage their own
development more effectively and to enhance the sustainability of interventions.
22. Another set of interventions follows on from these ‘quick wins’, including:
o More robust and diversified agriculture using nitrogen-fixing trees and cover crops, organic
manures, crop rotations, soil conservation practices, livestock management, aquaculture,
small-scale water management, improved crop storage, and crop insurance.
o A functional clinic at the village level, staffed by government and community health
workers, to provide basic clinical services for infectious diseases, nutritional deficiencies,
antenatal care, and attended births.
o Expanded health systems including: further malaria control through indoor residual
spraying; family planning; micronutrient supplementation for vulnerable groups; treatment
and prevention of HIV/AIDS and TB; and improvements in the nearby referral hospital,
including emergency obstetric care.
o Functioning primary schools: adequate buildings, teachers and materials; separate latrines
for girls and boys; and drinking water.
o Safe drinking water points constructed with the aim of having access within 1 km of each
household. Better access to clean water combined with pit latrines constructed at homes
enables improved sanitation and personal hygiene.
o Infrastructure: upgrading local roads and improving access roads; connecting to the
electricity grid; access to the internet; and transportation to markets.
o Expanded links with government and other development partners, including steering groups
that coordinate local and district-level activities, planning, and cost-sharing.
o Commercial farming and business development: diversifying farm enterprise towards highvalue products; linking producer groups to markets; and enterprise development through
capacity building and access to microfinance and microenterprise institutions.
o Environmental rehabilitation: increasing tree cover; soil conservation practices and
structures; biodiversity protection; and carbon sequestration.
23. An overview of the theory of change underlying this project is provided in Figure 3. A summary
of the interventions with an indicative implementation timeline proposed by the MPA are outlined in
Figure 4.
Technical assistance
provided to line ministries
and local government;
community participation
and empowerment
(INPUT 1)
Skilled staff delivering
improved basic
services
(OUTPUT 2)
Additional resources and
commodities for gaps in
delivery of basic
services in education,
health and nutrition
(INPUT 2)
Reduction in barriers
to accessing local
services
(OUTPUT 3)
Agricultural extension
services and inputs,
and support to
business
development
(INPUT 3)
Improved income
earning opportunities
(OUTPUT 1)
Accelerated progress towards the MDGs in the Millennium Village
site (OUTCOME)
Poverty reduction in West Mamprusi and Builsa districts of
Northern Ghana (IMPACT)
Installation of
essential
infrastructure
(INPUT 4)
Improved
connectivity
(OUTPUT 4)
Learning what
does and what
does not work
Figure 3: theory of change for the new Millennium Village – how inputs lead to outputs, outcome and impact
Sector
Intervention
Agriculture &
Nutrition
Seed & Fertilizer Support
Year
One
Year
Two
Year
Three
Year
Four
Year
Five
Extension Training
Community Storage
Crop Diversification
Education
School Staffing
Construction & Refurbishment of
Schools
School Meals
Health
Bednets, Immunization, Vitamin
A & Deworming
Clinic Construction & Staffing
Referral Hospitals
Community Health Workers
Infrastructure
Water & Sanitation
Roads
Grid Infrastructure
Business
Development
Value Chain Analysis
Microfinance
Farmer-based businesses
Figure 4: proposed timeline of interventions
24. The overall goal of the project, as described by the MPA, is to “assist a specific population in the
rural northern savannah belt of Ghana in achieving the Millennium Development Goals, and to help
establish a robust local economy that can sustain and extend the progress made during the project”.
Details of what is proposed to be achieved in the northern Ghana Millennium Village will be
determined when baselines are established at the start of implementation. Initial estimations of
headline results to be achieved by the end of the 5-year period include27:
o
o
o
o
o
o
11,000 people lifted out of poverty (MDG 1)
100 deaths averted per year of children under the age of 5 (MDG 4)
420 more children going to school per year (MDG 2)
220 fewer cases of malaria in children per year (MDG 6)
10,000 people with access to safe drinking water (MDG 7)
17,500 people with access to improved sanitation (MDG 7)
Climate change and environmental analysis
25. The north of Ghana is a dry savannah that is vulnerable to adverse impacts from changes in the
climate, including increased occurrence of both drought and flooding. Climate change related
extreme weather events, food insecurity and migration are increasingly evident in the North, which
already has a heavily degraded natural resource base. The rainfall regime appears to be shifting,
with increasing uncertainty in the onset and timing of rains. Female-headed households and migrants
are significantly affected. A study of the economics of adaptation to climate change in Ghana by the
World Bank predicts that the highest temperature increases will occur in the north of the country 28. It
notes that Ghana’s agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to climate change and variability because it
is predominantly rain-fed and has low levels of productivity – characteristics particularly true for the
dry northern savannah. The study suggests that interventions that reduce development gaps in
particular geographic areas – as the Millennium Village Project aims to do – can be effective in
increasing resilience. The 2004 Human Development Report for Builsa District reported that the
dominant shocks to livelihoods are those relating to crop production and livestock, which are in turn
closely linked to rainfall29.
26. Many of the challenges that the Millennium Village project would seek to tackle are exacerbated
by current climate variability, including disrupted access to healthcare and education, poor roads and
access to markets, high seasonal incidence of cerebrospinal meningitis, energy insecurity, poor
water access for irrigation and drinking supply, low agricultural productivity, and high levels of
migration particularly among girls. The challenge is particularly acute in West Mamprusi, where parts
of the district become isolated during the rains. Ensuring that these issues are captured in the
baseline inventories and surveys, and in the regular monitoring system and operational research, will
provide useful evidence on the significance of climate shocks and help in targeting appropriate
responses.
27. A clear objective of the Millennium Village is to improve environmental management and reduce
degradation of natural resources30. For instance, improved soil management practices aim to
increase long-term agricultural yields. This particular Millennium Village site will have a strong focus
on water management, in terms of managing floods and ensuring that sufficient water is available for
drinking and for agriculture. This will need to incorporate resilience to climate variability and build
linkages with other initiatives that are tackling climate risks in the north, such as flood warning
systems, community-based adaptation, and weather-related crop insurance.
28. The project could have negative impacts on resilience to climate change and on the
environment, which will need to be monitored and mitigated. For instance, increased reliance on
irrigated agriculture, while potentially unlocking huge agricultural production, will increase
susceptibility to variations in water availability. And increased use of agricultural inputs – fertilizer and
pesticides – could lead to pollution, as well as pose risks to farm workers, particularly if they are not
applied efficiently.
29. Overall, the likely climate change and environmental impact of the project is categorised as “B”:
medium/manageable potential risk, with good opportunity for improvement.
APPRAISAL
30. The choice of the Millennium Village site means that the project will target the poor. Around 70%
of the population is estimated to live below the national poverty line31, which is typical for the
prevalence of poverty in northern Ghana.
31. The Millennium Villages model builds on the integrated rural development approach, which
evolved initially in the 1970s out of earlier large-scale state investment in rural areas and agriculture.
This approach shifted priorities towards the social investments required for rural development,
alongside infrastructure and agricultural productivity, including investing in human capital through
education and health. Hence the strong emphasis within the Millennium Village model on primary
education, particularly teacher engagement, and on health, for instance through free provision of
primary health care at source. Integrated rural development has been seen as a potentially powerful
approach to tackling poverty reduction, but has also been subject to substantial criticism32, with
limited evidence of sustained positive impact from the initial programmes in the 1970s 33. On the
other hand, it has been argued that balanced approaches to tackling rural poverty have since evolved
that build on the earlier thinking around integrated rural development 34. The Millennium Village
approach has responded to key lessons learned from the first wave of integrated rural development
approaches in the 1970s. For instance, an influential set of proposed principles35 is largely reflected
in Millennium Villages design:
 simple or medium-term interventions on an initially limited scale
 constant interaction between planning, execution and evaluation
 dynamic analysis and more in-depth comprehension of inter-relationships
 increased participation of target groups in decision-making, implementation and evaluation
 diversification and strengthening of the support given to local capacity for institutional
organisation.
32. While the outputs and activities are similar to that of past integrated rural development projects,
the MPA note specific innovations of the Millennium Villages model that represent a step change in
implementing an integrated rural development approach36, by:





focusing on participatory community decision making
strengthening existing decentralisation processes
targeting mutually reinforcing interventions (e.g. agriculture, nutrition and human health) to
link community activities and enhance outputs
using new science-based technologies that were not previously available, such as insecticidetreated bed nets
setting quantified and time-bound targets, with intensive monitoring and evaluation.
33. One criticism of integrated rural development projects has been their reliance on setting up
substantial project management units to bypass weak domestic agencies. This negatively affects
project sustainability since local institutions and communities are then left with minimally-improved
capacity to continue with operational issues once the temporary management unit is dismantled37.
An external review by the Overseas Development Institute in 200838 noted that the extent of these
parallel administrative arrangements in the Millennium Villages model is limited in comparison with
some of the grander designs of integrated rural development projects.
34. The main finding from a synthesis of experience of large-scale integrated rural development
projects in Africa39, is that projects should be less ambitious, more carefully prepared and focused on
new technologies offering the best chance of success. The proposal by MPA is ambitious in the
results it aims to achieve, but on a limited geographical scale; it is based on a detailed model that has
evolved over a number of years and incorporates a 6-month preparation period; and is explicitly
based on applying latest technologies. The model can therefore be seen to be responding to some of
the key lessons from previous integrated rural development interventions.
(1) Evidence on the effectiveness of the Millennium Villages approach
35. The first Millennium Village commenced in 2004, with the majority of the ongoing villages being
established in 2006. There are no Millennium Villages where project intervention has finished and
results have been collated and analysed. The MPA has provided an outline of the average results
achieved across the Millennium Villages by 2009, described as the measurable ‘quick wins’ 40. These
include a seven-fold increase in the use of bed nets among children; maize yields being tripled; and
access to improved drinking water higher by 50 percentage points (see Figure 5). This has led to
tangible outcomes reported such as a marked decrease in malaria prevalence (from an average of
24% for all age groups, down to 10%), and agricultural incomes almost at a level of self-sufficiency in
terms of being able to purchase critical inputs such as fertiliser.
36. The external ‘formative review’ of the approach across four Millennium Village sites in 2008 41
noted considerable evidence of significant improvements at household and village levels in the health
and agriculture sectors, and a strong sense of community ownership. It concluded that the approach
had been successful in rapidly delivering investments and in demonstrating that it is possible to
achieve rural development outcomes across a range of sectors, even in remote rural villages. Some
of the most visible achievements it reported were increases in agricultural yields of between 85% and
350%, a ‘dramatic’ drop in the incidence of malaria, and the annual cost of borrowing in one case
falling from as high as 60% down to 18%.
37. The ‘formative review’ suggests, however, that
sustainability of the achievements of the Millennium
Villages will require a number of complementary
actions and investments such as infrastructure linking
villages to urban areas and markets, institutional
development, and training facilities to produce the
necessary staff to deliver services. An earlier study
from researchers at the same institution – the
Overseas Development Institute – argued that the
Millennium Villages model risked repeating mistakes
from past rural development initiatives that had been
ineffective in sustaining development gains. A report
for USAID on the lessons learned from the integrated
rural development approach notes that the challenge in
achieving sustainability has been to ensure that rural
communities establish local organisations to continue
to meet their needs, so that local governments and
communities can assume greater responsibilities and
drive local development 42. The Millennium Village
approach emphasises learning-by-doing through
community participation and decision-making, which it
terms ‘bottom-up empowerment’. However, it has been
argued that this claim to a bottom-up approach is
somewhat at odds with its emphasis on a ‘proven,
integrated package of interventions’, suggesting more
of a blueprint approach that is not adapted to local
realities43, with a reliance on pre-conceived definitions
of problems and pre-packaged solutions44.
Figure 5: year-3 results highlights across eleven Millennium Village
45
sites (Source: Millennium Villages, 2011)
38. Sustainability of the gains achieved is clearly critical to the success of the Millennium Village
approach. Various features of the model can contribute to sustainability, such as: enabling selfsustaining livelihoods; improving education as a path out of poverty; stimulating entrepreneurial
activity as the basis for future incomes; empowering communities; improving agricultural methods
and productivity; and building capacity of local government through technical assistance to regional
and district officials, by including them within implementation teams, and by involving them in
assessments including the initial needs assessment exercise.
39. Perhaps the most common recent criticism of the Millennium Villages Project relates to the lack
of published evaluation of their impact and the reliance so far on reporting of “before and after”
results46. This issue has stimulated active discussions, for instance, on internet blog sites47. While
the Project’s early results were found to perform well against counterfactuals, in areas such as
improved sanitation, measles vaccination, and reducing child mortality48, some results that have been
reported for Millennium Villages were found to have occurred to a similar degree in other sites within
the same country. For example, once local effects were contextualised, no additional effect on mobile
phone usage could be distinguished in the first three years of the ongoing Millennium Village at
Bonsaaso in Ghana. This evidence is presented in what is probably the most considered critique of
the Millennium Villages results49, which argues that, “The Millennium Villages offer an opportunity to
learn what does and does not work in development interventions, an opportunity that will be lost if
impact evaluation ceases after the first few intervention sites or simply recurs in its current form.”
40. Whilst the achievements reported for the Millennium Villages across Africa during their first
three years have been broadly positive, there is not yet evidence of the model’s longer-term impact.
Some critics suggest that it is unsurprising that channelling significant resources to a relatively small
population will have considerable beneficial impact, at least in the short-run. But key questions
around the cost effectiveness and the sustainability of the approach remain unanswered. Evidence
will be derived on these issues through the independent evaluation to be commissioned by DFID in
close collaboration with the SADA.
41. In reviewing Sachs’s arguments for addressing poverty traps50, Easterly has argued that at the
national level the recent stagnation of the poorest countries appears to have more to do with ‘awful
government’ than with a poverty trap51. Similarly, it has been argued that, while Millennium Villages
have potential value in reducing poverty, successful development that enables the poor to engage in
productive activities in a sustainable manner depends heavily on broad issues of institutions, politics
and governance52. A suggested response is to carefully sequence interventions within the context of
changing government capacity, to reflect national (and regional) policy priorities, to seek economic
opportunities beyond rural agriculture, and to build on existing governance systems and institutions.
42. The proposed new site in northern Ghana is split between two administrative Districts and two
Regions53, while not completely covering either of the two districts in which it is being implemented.
The district authorities are critical to successful implementation, and close coordination will be
important between the officials of the districts and regions. The Millennium Village model involves
secondment of some staff from government, such as providers of health, education and agricultural
services. This raises concerns about diverting government resources and attention from elsewhere,
although secondments are often of those already working in the area, and capacity building of local
government aims to increase their ability to deliver. A Millennium Villages lesson learning and
evaluation workshop, including a visit to the existing Ghana Millennium Village at Bonsaaso, with a
follow-up validation workshop for the proposed project54, have enabled government officials from the
North to understand what is involved in implementing such a project and to share ideas on taking it
forward.
43. Links into regional and national government are likely to be considerably strengthened by the
partnership with the Government of Ghana’s SADA, which may help to overcome findings from other
Millennium Village projects that ownership has been relatively low at the level of national line
ministries55. The SADA is institutionally located within the Office of the President and is establishing
strong links with the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning and with line ministries. It has been
closely involved in the selection of the Millennium Village site, has been consulted during design, and
will be a close partner during implementation. Development in the North is a high priority for all the
major political parties in Ghana, as demonstrated by the fact that efforts to establish a northern
regional development authority remained on course despite a change in the administration at the last
elections in 2008. The design of the new Millennium Village has avoided political affiliation, with
proposed consultative and working groups including a wide range of stakeholders. This project
should therefore not be affected substantially by the outcome of the next general election at the end
of 2012.
44. The area proposed for the new Millennium Village is not prone to conflict. However, there is
some evidence from elsewhere in the Northern Region that increased economic opportunities and
poverty reduction – as is envisioned for the new Millennium Village – can create frictions within
traditional ethnic hierarchies and increase the risk of conflict56. Implementation will need to be
sensitive to the local context, including patterns of ethnicity. Traditional chiefs will be included in
oversight bodies.
45. While local institution building, participation and community empowerment are a key part of the
Millennium Village approach, with local committees being established to agree on the use of and
responsibility for shared assets, it has been noted that to establish committees is relatively easy,
while ensuring that they operate effectively over an extended period, and in ways that prevent social
exclusion and elite capture, is more complex57. There may also be opportunity costs to villagers of
participation, for instance in attending many community-level meetings. In a study of the Rwanda
Millennium Village58, villagers reported a positive increase in membership of community groups,
especially cooperatives, with members working together across social divides. Some potentially
negative social impacts of the Village included exclusion of the poorest from cooperatives, perceived
greater benefit to local elites, and a sense by some people of unequal participation in the project. A
synthesis review of Millennium Villages noted some complaints by villagers of exacerbating existing
social divisions, for instance in relation to the control of assets such as vehicles and grain mills 59
(within a context of general success in advancing universal access to basic services and broad
community engagement). The new Millennium Village will need to be aware of these possible issues
and perceptions, and find ways to ensure effective and equitable participation.
46. Gender equality is one of the main principles of the Millennium Villages approach60. This is most
evident in the direct interventions, such as the focus on maternal health, on getting girls into school,
and on tackling malaria, which is regarded as a leading cause of mortality and morbidity among
pregnant women and children under-five years. For instance, to eliminate gender disparity in primary
school attendance, separate school latrine facilities are created for girls and learning content made
more relevant to girls. And women of childbearing age, including non-pregnant women and
adolescents, are targeted with micronutrient supplementation. In the study of the Rwandan
Millennium Village, improvement was also reported in women’s position in the household and in the
community.
(2) Incremental costs of Millennium Village implementation
47. The funding that would be provided by DFID for the Millennium Village is £11.5 million, derived
from a request for US$18.1 million converted at current exchange rates. Of the total, over 80% is for
implementation of the various interventions, with the remainder used to source technical expertise,
led by the Earth Institute based at Columbia University, and for monitoring and evaluation.
48. The Millennium Villages model anticipates contributions also from local communities, local and
national government, and other development partners working in the area. It is expected that
government will provide $30 per capita each year, or $4.5 million over a 5-year period. This will
include providing staff as well as increased provision of services and infrastructure within the site.
Contributions by individuals and communities can be in cash or in-kind (e.g. labour) and is estimated
at $10 per capita each year (or $1.5 million over 5 years). Based on experience gained from the first
generation of Millennium Villages, it is anticipated that $20 per capita per year (or $3.0 million over 5
years) will be provided by other partners, including national and international NGOs working across
the site. The total of the contributions other than by DFID is estimated to be US$9.0 million over the
5-year project period. The total direct costs of the project are expected to be $27.1 million, which is
approximately £17 million. Experience in other Millennium Villages suggests that contributions from
these ‘other’ sources pick up considerably as the project proceeds and can be considerably greater
than projected61.
(3) Incremental benefits of Millennium Village implementation
A. Accelerating progress locally towards achieving the MDGs
49. A key set of benefits that should be derived from the new Millennium Village is accelerated
progress towards the MDGs. Previous attempts62 at estimating the benefits of reaching the MDGs
have tended to be sector-specific and at a global level i.e. achieving one MDG independently of the
others. The majority of these measured benefits have been quantified based on cost savings from
the prevention of future adverse outcomes and savings in related expenditures, productivity losses
and time expended63. These approaches to measuring benefits could be applied to the Millennium
Village. For example, if the MDG for access to clean water were achieved locally earlier than would
otherwise have been the case, the benefit could be valued in terms of the prevention of associated
costs arising from poor health, and time saved in travelling to collect water, for each person for each
year ‘gained’.
50. Estimating any acceleration achieved in progress towards the MDGs requires some assessment
of the counterfactual, i.e. what would otherwise have happened in the absence of the Millennium
Village intervention? This could be estimated through comparison with control sites (which are similar
to the Millennium Village but do not receive the intensive set of interventions). Comparison with
progress being achieved more generally across the region may also be possible, if data are
available, although the conclusions that can be drawn from this approach are only indicative. The
ongoing Millennium Villages were established without identifying and monitoring comparison sites at
the outset (although monitoring of a comparison site was added in the Project’s third year for most
sites), adding to the inherent difficulty in estimating a true counterfactual. There is limited evidence,
therefore, of gains attributable to the existing Millennium Village sites, although some recent
publications present evidence on agriculture and child stunting64. The associated DFID-funded
independent evaluation of this new Millennium Village aims to provide such evidence.
51. A possible approach to valuing the economic benefits of accelerating progress towards the
MDGs is outlined below. This is illustrative, being based on the indicative results proposed by the
MPA, rather than on evidence derived from comparisons of previous interventions against
counterfactuals.

Poverty Reduction/Economic Growth: The Millennium Village aims to achieve
substantial poverty reduction for up to 2,250 households65 (around 11,000 people) – for
instance through increasing crop yields, providing storage of crops to spread out the selling
season, and improving the functioning and connectivity of local markets. This would
reduce the incidence of poverty from around 70% to around 25%. Agricultural productivity
remains crucial to achieving rural economic growth and tackling rural poverty66. Initial
benefits could be measured as increased agricultural output, allowing for any changes in
local prices. Local multiplier effects are likely to stem from the increased consumption of
goods and services associated with higher agricultural incomes.

Education: At least 90% of children at the site should be attending primary school by the
end of the implementation period, with an equal number of girls as boys. Coupled with
more fully-trained teachers, completion rates should also rise. MDG acceleration in this
case will be the additional number of children going to school (estimated to be 400 children
per year). The economic benefits of increased primary (and beyond) school completion can
be measured as the higher private returns derived from increased productivity leading to
higher lifetime earnings67. There are also wider public benefits from higher levels of
education. For example, it has been shown that girls in Sub-Saharan Africa who have
completed primary education are less likely to become mothers early on in life (between
the ages of 15-19)68.

Nutrition: Food consumption for households at the Millennium Village site is determined to
a large extent by what is grown or is provided by livestock69. Improving local food security
and the consumption of balanced diets is expected to reduce the incidence of childhood
stunting by 400 cases per year, and childhood wasting by 26 cases per year. Whether or
not children are well-nourished during their first years of life can have a profound effect on
their future health status, as well as their ability to learn, communicate, think analytically,
socialise effectively and adapt to new environments and people. Good nutrition is the first
line of defence against numerous childhood diseases, which can leave their mark on a
child for life70. There are significant economic benefits from avoiding current and future
costs, and from increasing individuals’ productivity.

Access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation: Around 10,000 additional
people should get access to safe drinking water, and 17,500 get access to improved
sanitation. The sanitation MDG in particular is proving a challenge across Ghana, and
even more so in remote rural areas. The benefits of accelerating access to water and
sanitation include: avoiding the health costs associated with using dirty water or having
inadequate sanitation, and time saved in having to fetch water (with opportunity costs in
terms of alternative uses of that time, such as carrying out agricultural tasks or school
work)71.

Health: The availability of free health care at the point of delivery (based on assisting poor
people to enrol in the national health insurance scheme) and improved access to health
clinics, backed up the presence of skilled health workers that are otherwise often lacking in
the northern districts, could result in substantial benefits. For instance, reduced burden of
disease can save on costs of treatment, reduced loss of productive time, and lower
numbers of avoidable deaths. The proposed health interventions – for example provision of
bed nets, TB and measles immunisation, improved maternity services, and availability of
modern family planning methods – have been shown to be extremely cost effective
interventions in Africa72.
B. Market and business development
52. Facilitating services and support to businesses and farmers can unlock further growth beyond
increased incomes from higher crop yields. Access to financial products, such as savings, loans and
insurance, can help to smooth shocks and reduce the credit constraints faced by subsistence farming
households. It can enable investment in farming inputs such as seeds and agro-processing
equipment, as well as in non-farm businesses. This can help to diversify the local economy, and
support the transformation from a largely subsistence economy to one based more on commercial
farming73. Supporting farm and non-farm enterprise has seen increasing emphasis in the
implementation of Millennium Villages, and it is proposed that interventions to support enterprise will
begin more immediately in the proposed new Millennium Village.
53. Successful increases in agricultural output, combined with increased demand for inputs, could
influence supply and demand. The scale of the proposed intervention makes it unlikely to impact
upon national-level markets. However, at the local level, there could be a significant influence in
terms of increased demand for certain goods and services, external sourcing of some services and
commodities, increased agricultural output, and increased demand resulting from increased incomes.
The Millennium Village will utilise local businesses to supply goods to the extent possible, and will
implement measures to strengthen the local private sector. Increased agricultural production
anticipated from the communities receiving support could have a dampening effect on prices. This
would be good for local consumers, but could negatively impact upon farmers’ incomes, particularly
those outside the site whose productivity will not have been boosted. However, there is a significant
regional market located at the edge of the site (in Fumbisi), where people from a wide area source
inputs and sell their products, which should serve to absorb local increases in demand for inputs and
supply of outputs, thereby limiting price effects.
C. Increased connectivity
54. The area around the proposed site suffers a severe lack of effective irrigation, year-round roads,
and electricity supply. Increasing the stock of infrastructure will support economic potential and
improve access to basic services. Direct economic benefits include enabling farmers to market their
surpluses, and to farm far more intensively with increased water supply. Access to electricity can
support local business operations, as well improve livelihoods for instance through household
lighting. Better transport connections to the rest of the District can lead to indirect benefits such as
improved access to health clinics and schools, and increased engagement with local government.
Internet connectivity and increased mobile phone connectivity can have various benefits. For
instance, in the health sector, mobile phones can be used for consultations, for making and followingup referrals, improving the response to emergencies, and reducing isolation for those who work in
rural areas. In the education sector, mobile phones can facilitate communications between parents
and teachers, and can assist management in schools74.
D. Synergies and spillover effects
55. The Millennium Village Project’s primary emphasis is on demonstrating the viability of
simultaneously implementing a series of integrated, community-based programs to achieve the
Millennium Development Goals. Another important principle focuses on the existence of synergies
when applying those interventions at the same time. Essentially, the argument is that tackling a
number of related issues concurrently is more effective than tackling them separately. Communitylevel program managers coordinate activities across multiple sectors, and improvements in one
sector can create positive externalities in terms of helping to achieve outcomes in other sectors. For
example, improving maternal health can be tackled directly by providing more skilled birth attendants.
But simultaneously improving girls’ education, increasing access to modern contraceptive methods,
providing ante-natal care, and improving transportation links to medical facilities, can significantly
amplify the gains achieved. There can also, however, be negative externalities or spillover effects.
For instance, the attention and effort of local government authorities, who have limited capacity,
could be drawn away from other areas, with possible negative knock-on effects for services provided
to communities elsewhere in the Builsa and West Mamprusi districts. Moreover, the Millennium
Villages model is premised on significant resources being provided by the government, in terms of
financing and staffing, which risks displacing resources available to other areas. Given the fixed area
of the Millennium Village site, there may be inward migration of households into the site, in order to
access improved services. This could reduce the availability of services for those based within site,
diluting the apparent impact of the project. These possible spillover effects will be assessed as part of
the associated independent evaluation.
E. SADA demonstration effect
56. The new Millennium Village represents one of the first development projects that will be
implemented in collaboration with the SADA, the newly-established regional development authority
for Ghana’s northern savannah. The site’s location, across two administrative districts and regions,
will test the SADA’s objective of coordinating development across administrative boundaries.
Implementing the Millennium Village model in the northern savannah will also provide lessons for the
SADA on aspects of development practice that do or do not work well in that context. The extensive
monitoring that is part of the Millennium Village approach, combined with the separate independent
evaluation, should provide insights for the SADA into how to establish the strong monitoring and
evaluation systems that are part of its strategy.
F. Global public good of independent Millennium Village evaluation
57. Beyond the direct benefits associated with the interventions, and expected acceleration towards
MDG outcomes, the evidence derived from a robust evaluation of this new Millennium Village can
inform poverty reduction interventions internationally. The evidence will certainly inform the active
international debate around the Millennium Villages model. The independent evaluation needs to be
applied to a new Millennium Village – and this is the only additional Village that is being planned at
present – so that the evaluation can build upon baseline comparison site surveys carried out before
the Millennium Village interventions are implemented. If the model is shown to be effective, then not
only will this Millennium Village itself deliver cost-effective and sustainable results, but it can inform
further substantial similar interventions and possible scaling up of the approach. If, on the other hand,
the evidence on the impact of the approach is less positive, then it will help to ensure that scarce
development resources can be channelled to more effective interventions.
(4) Appraisal Summary
58. The appraisal does not assess alternative uses of DFID’s funds for comparison with providing
funding for a new Millennium Village. There is not a direct alternative against which to compare the
proposal, and alternative options are not readily available for implementing a comparable type of
project.
59. The Millennium Village offers a diverse range of potential benefits that can help to reduce
poverty in the two districts. There are significant potential benefits associated with MDG-related
outcomes in health, education, water and sanitation, and in nutrition. With, for instance, up to 11,000
people being lifted out of poverty and 10,000 people gaining access to safe drinking water in the
space of five years. Benefits are also expected in stimulating commerce and economic activity, and
increasing connectivity for communities. There may be indirect benefits in terms of demonstrating
progress associated with the SADA, and demonstrating to the SADA possible intervention
approaches and methods for monitoring and evaluation. The approach is said to benefit from
synergies derived from its integrated approach, and can result in positive externalities beyond the
direct benefits of each intervention. There are also risks of negative spillovers for areas outside of
the Millennium Village site.
60. The early results from other Millennium Villages have demonstrated substantial improvements
in some development outcomes. The model, with its intensive implementation approach, appears to
have positive effects through the ‘quick-win’ interventions. If the projected results are achieved, and
the outcomes can be sustained, then the Millennium Village model could prove to be an effective
approach to stimulating local rural development and achieving the MDGs in poor rural communities.
The current evidence does not enable a robust assessment of the impacts of the model, so an
economic case cannot yet be constructed. There is no Millennium Village that has been
accompanied from the start by an independent evaluation process. So, this project, for which such
an accompanying evaluation is planned, represents an important opportunity to produce new
evidence that can inform the debate on how effective Millennium Villages are in accelerating
progress towards the MDGs, and can feed into future decisions on how best to channel large
amounts of development assistance.
Measures to be used or developed to assess value for money
61. Funding for this new Millennium Village will be provided alongside funding for a robust
independent evaluation that will provide insights into the value for money of the model. As discussed
above, central to the critiques of the model is the need for evidence on whether the intensive
integrated set of interventions results in significantly improved outcomes than would otherwise be the
case, in a cost-effective way, and whether these outcomes are sustainable and avoid creating
negative spillovers.
62. Evidence on performance of the new Millennium Village will become available a year or two
after initial baselines have been established (which will be during the first 6 months of the project). A
mid-term assessment will therefore take place in year 3. This will be based on analysis from the
accompanying independent evaluation, including a comparison of costs and benefits, and will inform
a decision on whether or not to proceed with this project beyond that point. The assessment will need
to acknowledge that implementation is not complete, and that important aspects of the independent
evaluation, e.g. sustainability, will not be fully incorporated. However, it should provide sufficient
insights to make a decision at that point, and if it appears that the project will be unable to deliver on
its expected outcomes, then it can be halted.
COMMERCIAL CASE
A. Why is the proposed funding mechanism/form of arrangement the right one for this
intervention, with this development partner?
63. The MPA, an international NGO with headquarters in New York, has made an unsolicited
proposal to DFID to fund a new Millennium Village. As a not-for-profit organisation, an accountable
grant is the appropriate funding mechanism. The MPA is the organisation responsible for
implementing all Millennium Villages. It will be responsible for the management of the grant, including
all monitoring and reporting.
64. Procurement will not be carried out directly by DFID. The MPA will use DFID funds to procure
goods and services required for implementation, including technical expertise from the Earth Institute.
The Government of Ghana will use its own procurement processes to scale-up provision of goods
and services to the Millennium Village site, as may be agreed with the MPA. Other inputs, such as
from non-governmental organisations and other development partners, will be procured by those
agencies.
65. The MPA will follow its standard financial management procedures governing disbursement,
monitoring and reporting between MPA’s head office in New York, the Earth Institute at Columbia
University, and their regional and country operations in Africa.
B. Value for money through procurement
66. DFID will be financing a standard Millennium Villages model. Procurement will be undertaken by
the MPA, who have built up considerable experience across Africa in carrying out the various
interventions that make up the model – including in Ghana at the existing Bonsaaso Millennium
Village – which should underpin achieving value for money in procurement. The comparatively large
scale of purchases, and buying inputs in bulk on behalf of community members, also provides
opportunities to achieve value for money in procurement.
67. Costs can be broken down into direct interventions, management (including financial
management and audit), monitoring and evaluation, and accessing technical expertise. The majority
of the funds will be spent on direct interventions (e.g. procuring goods such as bednets and
medicines, providing training, improving infrastructure, and building capacity of local institutions).
The breakdown of costs is based on the standard Millennium Villages model, which aims to minimise
management costs and maximise spending on direct interventions, but which also invests
substantially in providing technical backstopping to these interventions and establishing
comprehensive monitoring systems. Assessing the value for money of this approach is the primary
focus of the associated independent evaluation project.
FINANCIAL CASE
A. How much it will cost
68. The MPA has requested $18.1 million from DFID over 5 years. DFID’s commitment will be in
pounds sterling, of up to £11.5 million (which is based on conversion at current exchange rates).
There are three components of the proposed budget – direct implementation, monitoring and
evaluation, and technical expertise – as summarised in the Table below. While the overall budget is
firm, the annual budget estimates are only indicative. A more definite first-year budget will be
submitted by MPA following detailed local assessments and community-level consultations.
Category
Average Annual
Budget (UK £)
Total Budget 20112016 (UK £)
Agriculture, cooperatives and business development
286,000
1,430,000
Education
286,000
1,430,000
Health
400,000
2,000,000
Infrastructure
515,000
2,575,000
Local government links and community capacity
building
133,000
665,000
Local Management
286,000
1,430,000
Monitoring and evaluation (internal, led by the Earth
Institute)
203,000
1,015,000
Technical expertise (led by the Earth Institute)
191,000
955,000
2,300,000
11,500,000
TOTAL
Note:
these are approximate allocations to each budget category, converted to British pounds sterling from budget
figures in the MPA proposal in US dollars, using an exchange rate of 1.57 dollars to the pound.
B. How it will be funded
69. The project will be funded through programme funding from DFID’s bilateral programme to
Ghana.
C. How funds will be paid out
70. Disbursements to the MPA in New York will be paid quarterly in advance, subject to DFID
acceptance of a projected expenditure statement and, after the first payment, detailed quarterly
statements of expenditure and updates on progress-to-date.
D. How expenditure will be monitored, reported, and accounted for
71. Project progress will be monitored according to standard DFID internal procedures, involving
Annual Progress Reports and a final Project Completion Report. These will be based on progress
against the logframe, which will be revised during the initial 6 months of project implementation – as
baselines are established – and may be amended during the course of the project. Quarterly
updates on expenditure and on progress will be assessed prior to making disbursements. DFID will
consult with the SADA in assessing progress, and will liaise with various levels of Government,
including the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, on contributions to the Millennium Village.
72. Quarterly unaudited financial reports will be provided to DFID. DFID will have the right to access
providers’ relevant records for the purpose of monitoring and audit. MPA’s annual audited accounts
will be provided to DFID within 6 months of the MPA’s financial year. An independent external audit
will be commissioned by DFID after the first 2 years of implementation and after the full 5 years of
implementation, and may be commissioned more frequently as determined by DFID.
73. A due diligence check of MPA will be conducted prior to first disbursement. This will assess the
integrity of MPA’s operations including ability to manage the funding, procurement capability and
financial competence.
MANAGEMENT CASE
A. Oversight
74. The project will be implemented by the MPA. Staff employed for the Millennium Village report to
the Team Leader, who reports to the Regional Operations Manager based at the MDG Centre for
West and Central Africa in Mali. All site-level staff will be recruited through the MPA’s existing
administrative partnership with the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS), which now
manages core staff contracts in most Millennium Village sites. The Team Leader will be based in
northern Ghana close to the Millennium Village site. The Regional Operations Manager will travel
frequently to the project site to provide appropriate operational and technical support to the team.
Regular visits by technical experts from the regional MDG Centre will also monitor progress, as will
occasional visits by staff of the MPA and the Earth Institute (including the monitoring and evaluation
team) based in the USA.
75. Performance of the MPA, and of the project overall, will be monitored by DFID-Ghana through a
lead adviser and a project officer assigned to the project. The lead adviser’s primary role is to
oversee and manage implementation of this Millennium Village project and the associated
independent evaluation being funded by DFID, maintaining close links with the SADA. Regular
assessments of project performance, including annual reviews, will be undertaken by DFID, informed
by regular visits to the Millennium Village site and comparison sites in northern Ghana.
76. A Millennium Village Steering Committee will be established by the project to provide strategic
direction and oversight. It will meet twice a year and will provide guidance on policy direction,
governance, resource mobilisation and advocacy. It will be chaired by a representative from the
SADA with senior-level participation from the MDG Centre for West and Central Africa, the Ministry of
Finance and Economic Planning, DFID, and the Team Leader of Millennium Village (who will be the
Secretary without voting rights).
A broader Stakeholder Consultative Group will be established, to guide prioritisation of activities, to
create partnerships between various actors, and to facilitate the implementation process. The Group
will be chaired by a representative from the SADA with participation from the National Development
Planning Commission, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Local Government Service and the
Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning; Regional Planning Officers; the Regional Ministers,
Members of Parliament, traditional paramount chiefs and District Chief Executives of the two
Districts; civil society; the University of Development Studies; the MDG Centre for West and Central
Africa; DFID; the independent evaluation team; and the Team Leaders of the Bonsaaso and northern
Ghana Millennium Villages (Secretary).
A District Technical Working Group is also proposed to be established, to work with the local team
to guide implementation, including of recommendations from the Steering Committee, and to ensure
that the work plan is in line with local, regional and national Government development plans. The
Group will consist of representatives of the District levels of the Ministries of Food and Agriculture,
Health, Water, and Local Government, the Ghana Education Service, the District Planning Officers
and the Team Leader of the Millennium Village in Northern Ghana.
B. Management
77. A dedicated Team Leader to be based in northern Ghana will be assigned to this project by the
MPA. S/he is responsible for the successful implementation of the Millennium Village. The head of
finance and administration will be in charge of budgets, procurement and logistics, and will provide
the required support services needed on the ground (Figure 6). The head of programs is in charge of
ensuring technical and scientific coherence of the interventions, appropriate sequencing, efficient
implementation, and continuous monitoring.
Figure 6: Millennium Village Project Management Structure
78. Sector coordinators for agribusiness, health, education, infrastructure, community, and
monitoring and evaluation, will be responsible for specific aspects of implementation. The aim is to fill
these positions as much as possible using seconded staff from district and regional government. If
such capacity is not available, the positions will be advertised and a formal hiring procedure initiated.
79. The Millennium Village project will operate using local structures and resources as much as
possible. Community-level staff – such as agricultural extension officers, midwives, community health
workers, teachers, and water officers – will be local government personnel. When the number and
quality of these staff is not sufficient, the Millennium Village team will work with the regional and local
government authorities to attract new staff or to upgrade the skills of the existing staff.
C. Conditionality
80. There are no conditions attached to this project. It was agreed during initial discussions that
DFID funding for a Millennium Village would be accompanied by a robust independent evaluation to
be conducted of that Village. A separate project is being established for DFID funding of such an
independent evaluation.
D. Monitoring and Evaluation
81. The Millennium Villages approach employs a thorough system of monitoring of inputs, outputs
and outcomes, including:





baseline facility inventory and infrastructure mapping
a full household roster with a demographic census of a random sample of households in the
cluster, collected at the beginning of the project and before each of the survey rounds
comprehensive and often real-time performance monitoring of activities (e.g. vaccines purchased
and numbers of campaigns) and outputs (e.g. number of children vaccinated)
systematic recording of all project inputs and their cost, from all stakeholders
a bespoke Millennium Villages Information System75 used to record and access the wide array of
monitoring information.
82. This extensive monitoring within the site informs ongoing project implementation, and provides
insights into issues around timing and sequencing, comparative costs, and barriers and accelerators
for implementation. It also enables assessment of achievements such as changes in MDG-related
outcomes, feeding into various forms of evaluation that will be applied as part of the Millennium
Village project 76. ‘Process evaluation’ will assess the feasibility of the approach, and examine how
the process of implementation affects project outcomes. ‘Adequacy assessment’ will document
changes over time in MDG-related indicators at the site and compare these to the target levels set for
these MDGs. ‘Plausibility assessment’ will seek to determine if changes can be attributed to the
Millennium Village interventions, rather than to external or confounding factors. This can be through
comparing changes at the intervention site against those at a different site, or against national and
sub-national trends, and noting how the timing and sequencing of implementation affects outcomes.
Economic and financial aspects will be investigated through detailed economic costing and ‘costconsequence’ analysis that compares total project inputs with all the observed effects across the site.
The potential for applying cost-benefit analysis will be explored, incorporating changes in social
sector indicators (such as health and education) and household incomes across the site (as
measured by consumption and expenditure surveys); as well as ‘cost-effectiveness analysis’ that
considers the costs incurred to achieve particular outcomes such as numbers of Disability-Adjusted
Life Years (DALYs) saved.
83. All Millennium Villages now have a comparison site where key factors are monitored, to enable
better assessment of the impact of the support provided at the Millennium Village site. However,
monitoring of these comparison sites (including baselines) was not established at the same time as
interventions were started at the ongoing Millennium Village sites, limiting the ability to assess impact
between the intervention and comparison sites.
84. This proposed new Millennium Village in northern Ghana will be linked to a comparison site from
the beginning, monitored by the Millennium Village team. It will also be accompanied by a separate
independent evaluation process, which is described in a separate Business Case available on the
DFID external web site (http://projects.dfid.gov.uk/). This may involve additional comparison sites,
extended survey components, and non-survey monitoring adjacent to the Millennium Village site. It
will be designed to continue for another 5 years after the (5-year) period of direct interventions by the
Millennium Village project, to provide evidence on the sustainability of the impacts achieved. The
independent evaluation is scheduled to be commissioned at approximately the same time as the
proposed new Millennium Village would start, enabling baselines to be established at the beginning
of the implementation. Conducting such a robust independent evaluation will provide strong evidence
on the impact, sustainability and cost effectiveness of the Millennium Villages model.
85. The proposed new Millennium Village is the only one that MPA plans to launch in the mediumterm. It therefore provides a unique opportunity to establish a robust independent evaluation that can
inform the international debate on the value of the Millennium Village model, and thereby feed into
future policy and funding decisions relating to tackling poverty reduction and achieving the MDGs.
E. Risk Assessment
Risk
1. Lack of central
government
commitment to the
project
2. Independent
evaluation is
invalidated by
changes to
Millennium Village
design specification
or timing
3. Local communities
do not buy-in to the
Millennium Villages
approach
4. Spillover effects
such as diversion of
government
resources, and
migration
5. Insufficient
additional
contributions from
government, civil
society or other
development
partners
6. Negative
exogenous factors
constrain
development, such
as poor national-level
economic
performance, local
conflicts, or climatic
shocks
7. Political
commitment wavers
post the 2012
national election.
8. Increased
vulnerability to
climate change
impacts with a shift in
agricultural practices
Probability
Impact
(1 = low,
3 = high)
(1 = low,
3 =high)
2
2
1
2
1
3
3
1
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
Mitigation
The Millennium Village will be implemented in close
collaboration with the SADA, which is institutionally located
within the Office of the President, and includes senior
government officials from central government (including the
finance ministry). The Team Leader needs to develop
strong links with ministries’ headquarters in Accra.
The independent evaluation will be guided by a technical
steering group, and will be part of the Millennium Village
project’s Stakeholder Consultative Group.
Evaluation team will be contracted to deploy rapidly
to conduct baseline assessments and design in parallel with
Millennium Village initial period of planning and set-up.
Millennium Village team extensively consulted on
the design of the independent evaluation.
Millennium Village team to carefully manage community
engagement, working through traditional structures to
secure endorsement for, and collaboration on,
implementation.
Pre-implementation validation workshops and
knowledge-sharing events to increase awareness and buyin of local stakeholders.
Positive efforts to work with government officials as far
possible from within the site. Provide capacity building to
local government. Allow for some in-migration when
determining the size of the cluster. Specifically monitor
migration and any effects on adjacent areas.
Millennium Village Project to pro-actively engage with other
contributors (locally, nationally and internationally) as they
have done with previous Millennium Villages, supported by
DFID lobbying if necessary.
The initial design stage before implementation will assess
possible risks to delivery (with detailed counter-actions),
and regularly monitored and updated. Interventions to
specifically consider climate change implications and
mitigation measures. Community engagement will highlight
disputes and any increasing risk of conflict.
Link to government is primarily through the SADA, a
regional development authority, which has bipartisan
support. Relationships developed locally and nationally
need to consciously avoid being political.
New agricultural techniques, such as irrigation and crop
varieties, to be accompanied by measures and training to
increase resilience to climate change impacts.
F. Results and Benefits Management
86. The attached logframe sets out the trajectory of proposed results to be achieved by the project,
with planned milestones against indicators. This logframe will need to be revised when baselines are
established during the first six months of implementation, alongside the independent evaluation.
1
From the Ghana Living Standard Surveys (GLSS) 3 and 5, conducted in 1992 and 2006. Ghana Statistical
Service (April 2007), “Pattern and Trends of Poverty in Ghana 1991-2006”.
2
World Bank staff calculations, based on GLSS 5 in 2006, from: World Bank (March 2011), “Tackling Poverty
in the Northern Ghana”, Report No. 53991-GH.
3
National Development Planning Commission (NDPC) and UNDP (2010) "2008 Ghana Millennium
Development Goals Report", available at www.undp-gha.org/docs/GhanaGhanaMDGReport-2010.pdf
4
CEPA and ODI (October 2005), “Economic Growth in Northern Ghana” (for DFID).
5
World Bank (March 2011), “Tackling Poverty in the Northern Ghana”, Report No. 53991-GH.
6
Government of Ghana (2010), SADA Act Number 805.
7
SADA (2010), “SADA Strategy and Work Plan 2010 - 2013: A Sustainable Development Initiative for the
Northern Savannah”, Savannah Accelerated Development Authority.
8
See the World Bank’s Third Agriculture Development Policy Operation for Ghana available on
http://web.worldbank.org/external/projects/main?pagePK=64283627&piPK=73230&theSitePK=40941&menuPK
=228424&Projectid=P122796
9
For a summary of the LEAP programme, see http://www.issa.int/Observatory/CountryProfiles/Regions/Africa/Ghana/Reforms/Livelihood-Empowerment-Against-Poverty-Programme
10
www.millenniumpromise.org
11
Millennium Promise Alliance (2011), “SADA-Millennium Village Pilot: Accelerating Progress Towards the
MDGs in the Northern Savannah Ecological Zone”, funding proposal to be submitted to DFID Ghana, prepared
by Millennium Promise Alliance and the MDG Centre WCA, October.
12
The accompanying DFID project for evaluation of the Millennium Village is outlined in the Business Case,
which should be available on the DFID website from November 2011, at: http://projects.dfid.gov.uk/
13
DFID (April 2011), “DFID-Ghana Operational Plan 2011 - 2015”,
http://www.dfid.gov.uk/Documents/publications1/op/ghana-2011.pdf
14
Details on School For Life can be found at:
http://ghanavenskabsgrupperne.dk/fileadmin/user_upload/sfl/Profile_of_School_for_Life__1_.doc
15
See for instance, DFID (2011), “UK Aid: Changing lives, delivering results”,
http://www.dfid.gov.uk/Documents/publications1/mar/BAR-MAR-summary-document-web.pdf
16
The attached logframe outlines key outputs with milestones and targets. However, all of the figures are
provisional and will be updated, and missing data entered, within the first 6 months of the project when
baselines have been established and validated.
17
World Bank (March 2011), “Tackling Poverty in the Northern Ghana”, Report No. 53991-GH.
18
Nolen, Patrick (May 2011), “Northern Ghanaian Millennium Village Project: Options for Evaluation”, Inception
Report to DFID.
19
Awedoba, A.K. (2009), “An Ethnographic Study of Northern Ghanaian Conflicts: Towards a Sustainable
Peace”, Sustainable Peace Initiative with funding from CIDA, USAID and DFID.
20
Figures cited in the MPA proposal to DFID (op cit, Millennium Promise Alliance (2011)), based on data
provided by district planning officers.
21
NDPC and UNDP, “District Human Development Report 2004: Builsa District”, National Development
Planning Commission of Ghana and United Nations Development Programme.
22
Sachs, Jeffrey (2005), “The End of Poverty: Economic Policies For Our Time”.
23
The most prominent critic of the ‘big push’ approach and the related concept of ‘poverty traps’ is probably
William Easterly. See, for instance:
“Reliving the 50s: the Big Push, Poverty Traps, and Takeoffs in Economic Development”, December 2006,
Journal of Economic Growth, 11(2), 289-318, at:
http://williameasterly.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/48_easterly_relivingthe50s_prp.pdf
“The Big Push Déjà Vu: A Review of Jeffrey Sachs’s The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time”,
March 2006, Journal of Economic Literature, 44(1), 289-318, at:
http://williameasterly.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/44_easterly_thebigpush_prp.pdf
24
www.millenniumvillages.org
25
http://www.unmillenniumproject.org/resources/quickwins.htm
26
Sanchez, P. et al (2007) "The African Millennium Villages" Proceedings of the Academy of Sciences of the
United States of America (PNAS) vol. 104 non. 43 16775-16780, available on
http://www.pnas.org/content/104/43/16775
27
The projected results are calculated by the MPA using baselines from the existing Millennium Village in
central Ghana and applying these to a population of 25,000 to achieve targets reflecting pre-specified MDGrelated goals that have been set for all Millennium Village sites.
28
World Bank (2010), “Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Ghana Country Study”, at:
http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/documents/EACC_Ghana.pdf . And 2-page summary at:
http://climatechange.worldbank.org/content/country_study_summaries
29
NDPC and UNDP, “District Human Development Report 2004: Builsa District”, National Development
Planning Commission of Ghana and United Nations Development Programme.
30
One of the nine core objectives in the MPA’s proposal for this Millennium Village is to: “Integrate the
principles of sustainable development into village programs to reverse the loss of environmental resources,
enhance ecosystem services and increase adaptation to climate change”.
31
Poverty defined by the cost to buy a basic basket of goods and to satisfy the minimum calorific intake,
assessed against the Ghana national poverty line. The latest national survey of poverty levels is the Ghana
Living Standards Survey conducted in 2005/6, which provides regional-level estimates of poverty. According to
a 2004 District Human Development Report conducted for Builsa District (NDPC and UNDP), the incidence of
poverty in Builsa – based on poverty mapping using the 2000 population census data and the 1998/99 Ghana
Living Standards Survey – stood at a staggering 98%.
32
DFID, “Synthesis of Integrated Rural Development Projects”, EvSum 438, Evaluation Department,
Department for International Development, date as filed July 2004. This evaluation concludes that, “Farm
output did not increase as expected and economic rates of return were therefore substantially reduced. The
objectives presented at appraisal were not achieved as planned.” See also, for instance, Ruttan,V.W. (1975),
“Integrated Rural Development Programs: A Skeptical Perspective”, International Development Review, 17(4).
33
ODI (2008), “Sustaining and Scaling the Millennium Villages: Moving from rural investments to national
development plans to reach the MDGs. Formative Review of MVP, Synthesis Report”, “Annex 5: Lessons from
rural development: A brief review.” Overseas Development Institute, September.
34
ODI (2002), “Rethinking Rural Development”, Briefing Paper, Overseas Development Institute, March.
35
Crener, M.A (1984) “Integrated Rural Development: State of the Art Review”, CIDA. Cited in Maxwell, S and
Conway, T (2000), “New Approaches to Planning”, World Bank’s Operations Evaluation Department, Working
Paper No. 14.
36
Millennium Promise Alliance (2011), op cit.
37
USAID Armenia, “Integrated Rural Development: Lessons Learned”, no date. Available at:
usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNADF432.pdf
38
ODI (2008), “Sustaining and Scaling the Millennium Villages: Moving from rural investments to national
development plans to reach the MDGs. Formative Review of MVP, Synthesis Report”, Overseas Development
Institute, September.
39
DFID, “Rural Development in Africa: A Synthesis of Project Experience”, EvSum 400, Department for
International Development, written by P Balacs, date as filed July 2004.
40
MPA (2010), “Harvests of Development in Rural Africa: The Millennium Villages After Three Years”,
Millennium Promise Alliance and Earth Institute at Columbia University. Also, Millennium Villages (2011), “The
Millennium Villages Project. The Next Five Years 2011-2015”.
41
ODI (2008), “Sustaining and Scaling the Millennium Villages: Moving from rural investments to national
development plans to reach the MDGs. Formative Review of MVP, Synthesis Report”, Overseas Development
Institute, September.
42
USAID Armenia, “Integrated Rural Development: Lessons Learned”, no date. Available at:
pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNADF432.pdf
43
ODI (2006), “The Millennium Villages Project – a new approach to ending rural poverty in Africa?”, Natural
Resource Perspectives 101, Lídia Cabral, John Farrington and Eva Ludi, Overseas Development Institute,
August.
44
Carr, Edward (2008), “The millennium village project and African development: problems and potentials”,
Progress in Development Studies 8 (4) pp.333-344.
45
Millennium Villages (2011), “The Millennium Villages Project. The Next Five Years 2011-2015”.
46
Results are reported in MPA (2010), op cit, in terms of average MDG progress across five Millennium Village
sites in their third year of implementation, based on comparing key variables within each site over time. MPA
have been clear that this report is not a formal evaluation of the project, for instance at a debate on ‘Evaluating
Aid in Africa: the Millennium Villages Project’, summarised in the CSAE Spring 2011 newsletter, with the
papers available at: http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/conferences/2011-EdiA/paperlist.htm .
47
Internet blogs discussing the Millennium Villages include:
Owen Barder: http://www.owen.org/blog/3029
Chris Blattman: http://chrisblattman.com/2009/10/15/am-i-actually-sticking-up-for-the-millennium-villages/
Ed Carr: http://www.edwardrcarr.com/opentheechochamber/tag/millennium-village-project/
Gabriel Demombynes (World Bank): https://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/team/gabriel-demombynes
Shanta Devarajan (World Bank): http://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/evaluating-millennium-villages-revisited
William Easterly (Aid Watch Blog): http://aidwatchers.com/?s=millennium+villages
The Guardian, Poverty Matters Blog: http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/povertymatters/2010/nov/04/millennium-villages-sachs-clemens-demombynes
Lawrence Haddad (Institute of Development Studies) : http://www.developmenthorizons.com/2011/10/jeffsachs-lvp-of-mvp.html?spref=tw
Millennium Promise: http://blogs.millenniumpromise.org/index.php/2010/10/13/evaluating-the-millenniumvillages-a-response-to-clemens-and-demombynes/
http://blogs.millenniumpromise.org/index.php/2011/10/16/learning-in-and-from-themillennium-villages-a-response-to-lawrence-haddad/
48
Shanta Devarajan (2011), “Evaluating Millennium Villages Revisited”, World Bank blog site:
http://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/evaluating-millennium-villages-revisited
49
Clemens M. and Demombynes G. (November 2010), “When Does Rigorous Impact Evaluation Make a
Difference? The Case of the Millennium Villages”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5477.
50
Sachs, Jeffrey (2005), “The End of Poverty: Economic Policies For Our Time”.
51
Easterly, William (2006), “The Big Push Déjà Vu: A Review of Jeffrey Sachs’s The End of Poverty: Economic
Possibilities for Our Time”, Journal of Economic Literature, 44(1), 289-318, at:
http://williameasterly.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/44_easterly_thebigpush_prp.pdf
52
ODI (2006), “The Millennium Villages Project – a new approach to ending rural poverty in Africa?”, Natural
Resource Perspectives 101, Lídia Cabral, John Farrington and Eva Ludi, Overseas Development Institute,
August.
53
Ghana is administratively divided into 178 Districts, each with a District Assembly, and 10 Regions with their
own Regional Ministers.
54
Millennium Villages Evaluation Workshop, hosted by SADA and DFID, held in Kumasi (near the Bonsaaso
Millennium Village), 31 May and 01 June 2011; and Millennium Village Validation Workshop, hosted by
Millennium Villages Project and SADA, held in Tamale (near to the proposed Millennium Village), 15
September 2011.
55
The 2008 ODI study (op cit) noted considerable ownership of project activities at the community level, with a
more mixed picture at the District level, depending on factors such as involvement in planning and decisionmaking. Knowledge and ownership was found to be comparatively low within national line ministries, although
there was often strong support at the highest levels of government.
56
Oelbaum, Jay (2010), “Spatial poverty traps and ethnic conflict traps: lessons from northern Ghana’s ‘Blood
Yams’”, ODI Working Paper 324 and CPRC Working Paper 164, Overseas Development Institute and Chronic
Poverty Research Centre. December.
57
ODI (2006), “The Millennium Villages Project – a new approach to ending rural poverty in Africa?”, Natural
Resource Perspectives 101, Lídia Cabral, John Farrington and Eva Ludi, Overseas Development Institute,
August.
58
King, Elizabeth (August 2010), “The Millennium Village Project, Rwanda: A snapshot of social life”,
Postdoctoral Research Fellow at Columbia University, prepared for the Rwanda Millennium Village team.
59
ODI (2008), “Sustaining and Scaling the Millennium Villages: Moving from rural investments to national
development plans to reach the MDGs. Formative Review of MVP, Synthesis Report”, Overseas Development
Institute, September.
60
Sanchez, P. et al (2007) "The African Millennium Villages" Proceedings of the Academy of Sciences of the
United States of America (PNAS) vol. 104 non. 43 16775-16780, available at
http://www.pnas.org/content/104/43/16775 .
61
Data presented by Millennium Promise Alliance at Validation Workshop for the new Millennium Village in
northern Ghana, held in Tamale, Northern Region of Ghana, 15 September 2011.
62
For example, Guttmacher Institute and UNFPA (2009), “Adding It Up: The Costs and Benefits of Investing in
Family Planning and Maternal and Newborn Health”, available at:
http://www.unfpa.org/webdav/site/global/shared/documents/publications/2009/adding_it_up_report.pdf
And WHO (2005) “Making Water a part of Economic Development“ available at:
http://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/waterandmacroeconomics/en/index.html
63
See, for example, UN Millennium Project (2005) “Investing in Development: A Practical Plan
to Achieve the Millennium Development Goals” available at:
http://www.unmillenniumproject.org/reports/fullreport.htm
64
An example of research that has compared results achieved in Millennium Village sites with controls is on
crop yields. The study demonstrated significant increases achieved, particularly in average maize yields,
although this varied considerably by site (the Bonsaaso Millennium Village in Ghana showed less increase in
maize yields but it started from a higher base) and by type of crop (less impact was found for millet and
groundnut yields). Nziguheba, G. et al (2010), “The African Green Revolution: Results from the Millennium
Villages Project”, Advances in Agronomy (109), pp. 75-115.
An example of research that has compared results achieved in a number of Millennium Village sites with
national trends is on child stunting. The study indicates that the prevalence of stunting in children was 43%
lower than at baseline, while the average national stunting prevalence for the countries included in the study
was reported to have remained largely unchanged for the previous two decades. Reman, R. et al (2011), “A
Multi-sector Intervention to Accelerate Reductions in Child Stunting: An Observational Study from Nine subSaharan African Countries.” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition (forthcoming).
65
This assumes that all poverty reduction at the site can be fully attributed to the MV effect, which is subject to
the baselines of the site and the measurement of the counterfactual. The same applies to the other illustrative
approaches considered in the appraisal.
66
Ravallion, M. (2010), “Agriculture for Poverty reduction revisited”, presentation given to the University of
Berkeley’s conference on Agriculture of Development available on
http://cega.berkeley.edu/events/agfordev_revisited/
67
Kingdon, G. (2008) “Education, skills and labour market outcomes: Evidence from Ghana” Mimeo, World
Bank Human Development Network.
68
Schiultz, P. (2002) “Why Governments Should Invest More to Educate Girls", World Development: 30:207215
69
Rice, millet, sorghum and groundnut are the most popular crops at the proposed site, according to the MPA
proposal to DFID (op cit, Millennium Promise Alliance (2011)).
70
Martorell, R. (1996), "Undernutrition During Pregnancy and Early Childhood and its Consequences for
Behavioral Development", paper prepared for World Bank's conference on Early Child Development: Investing
in the Future, April 8 & 9, 1996.
71
WHO (2005) “Making Water a part of Economic Development“ available at
http://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/waterandmacroeconomics/en/index.html
72
See for example, see WHO “Choosing Interventions that are Cost Effective” at:
http://www.who.int/choice/results/en/
73
Byerlee, D.; Diao, X.; Jackson, C.; (2005) “Agriculture, Rural Development, and Pro-poor Growth: Country
Experiences in the Post-Reform Era”. Agriculture and Rural Development Discussion Paper 21, World Bank.
74
Millennium Villages Project (2010), “The impact of mobile connectivity on the Millennium Development Goals
in Africa”, Ericsson, Earth Institute Columbia University, Millennium Villages and Millennium Promise.
75
Millennium Village Project (April 12, 2010) presentation: “Millennium Villages Information System (MVIS):
Features and Functionality”.
76
The accompanying MPA Proposal to DFID (op cit, Millennium Promise Alliance (2011)), section 5 on
Monitoring and Evaluation and Annex 9, outlines aspects of evaluation that will be applied as part of the
Millennium Village project.