An International Survey of Gun
Laws and Violent Crime:
The Republic of Ireland,
Jamaica, Great Britain,
Australia, and Canada
Dr. Gary A Mauser
Professor
Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies
Faculty of Business Administration
Simon Fraser University
Burnaby, BC, Canada
Presented to the Annual Meeting of the American Society of
Criminology
Renaissance Hotel, Nashville, Tennessee
Saturday, 20 November 2004
American Society of Criminology
Do British-style firearm regulations
create a safer society?
• Gun laws are explicitly focused on
controlling firearms, but
• The promise is that more restrictive gun
laws will make society safer
• What is the international evidence?
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An experiment in Brazil
• “[The gun law] is … to cut the spiral of violence..
”
– President Luiz da Silva, Brazil
• “The amnesty is the latest step in the [Brazil]
government’s efforts to reduce violent crime.”
– BBC report November 11, 2003
American Society of Criminology
Promises in South Africa
• “South Africa hopes to make a dent in its
frighteningly high crime rate with a new guncontrol law that went into effect …”
– Agence France Presse, National Post, July 3, 2004, A10
• “We believe that in the long term these laws will
ultimately create a safer South Africa.”
– Police spokesman Andrew Lesch, July 3, 2004
American Society of Criminology
How can we measure
improvements in public safety?
• Violent crime rates should drop
• Homicide rates should fall
• Not just criminal violence involving guns,
but all criminal violence should fall
• Not just gun homicide, but total homicide
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Which measures are the
most appropriate?
• Gun deaths
• Gun violence
• Total violent crime
– Robbery, armed robbery
• Total homicide (or murder)
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Gun Death is a Red Herring
• Gun deaths are largely suicides
• Suicide is not central to public safety
• Substitution effect is supported empirically
• The removal of firearms or sharps must balance
liberty with personal safety
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Gun death is mostly suicide
• 57% of gun deaths in the US are due to
suicides
• 77% of gun deaths in Canada are due to
suicides
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Gun Violence
• It is relevant to ask whether gun laws cause
gun violence to decrease (or increase),
• But …is this the best measure of public
safety?
• A policy could reduce gun violence, but
overall violent crime could still increase
• Gun crime is a small fraction of violent
crime
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Gun violence is a small fraction
of violent crime
• Violent crime involving firearms:
• Canada (2003)
• England and Wales (2001)
• United States (1999)
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2%
1%
7%
The most appropriate measures
of public safety
• Homicide rate (or murder)
• Violent crime rate
• Robbery, armed robbery
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International trends compared with
trends in the US
• Countries that have introduced harsh
general firearms laws in the 1990s:
– Australia, Great Britain, and Canada
• Countries that completely banned firearms
in the 1970s:
– Republic of Ireland and Jamaica
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A natural quasi-experiment
• The justice system in the United States has
increasingly diverged from that in Britain or
in the Commonwealth:
– Arrest/conviction rates higher in the US,
– Sentencing/punishment more severe, and
– Citizens can carry concealed handguns.
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Please Note
• To assess the effect of laws, we must
compare trends across countries
• Direct comparison of international averages
is inappropriate
• Police statistics, despite limitations, are the
best international measure
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Republic of Ireland
Gun prohibition and terrorism
Irish Gun Law
• Firearms prohibited and confiscated in 1972
• Concern with terrorism motivated this
action as well as other police activities
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Murders continue to increase
Murder Trend in the Republic of Ireland
Number of Murder Incidents
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
45 948 951 954 957 960 963 966 969 972 975 978 981 984 987 990 993 996 999 002
19
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
Source: Garda Stochana Annual Reports
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Jamaica
The Gun Court and Drug Violence
Jamaican Gun Laws
• Gun court (1974 - 1982)
– Firearms and ammunition prohibited
– Mandatory life sentences
– No bail, no jury trials for charges of possession
of firearm or ammunition crimes,
• Firearm ownership still prohibited
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Murders continue to increase
Murder Trend in Jamaica
1200
50
45
1000
40
35
800
30
600
25
20
400
15
10
200
5
0
0
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20
Source: Allen, de Albuquerque, Diener & Crandall, Interpol, UN Survey
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Frequency
Rate per 100,000
Jamaican crime trends
Shootings and Murder in Jamaica
200
rate per 100,000 population
180
160
140
Murder rate
120
Shooting rate
100
80
60
40
20
0
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
Source: Profes sor A. Francis (2001)
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96
19
98
19
00
20
Violent crime continues to
increase
Violent Crime Index for Jamaica (1970-2000)
200
180
160
120
100
80
60
40
20
Years
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2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
0
1970
Crime Index
140
Great Britain
Firearm laws have targeted legal owners
• The Firearms Amendment of 1988 was
brought in following the Hungerford
incident
– Brought in shotgun licences
• The Firearms Amendment of 1997 was
brought in after the Dunblane shooting
– Prohibited and confiscated all handguns
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Homicide increasing
Homicide Trends in United States and England &
Wales
12
10
2
8
1.5
6
1
4
England
US
0.5
2
0
81
9
1
0
83
9
1
85
9
1
87
9
1
89
9
1
91
9
1
93
9
1
95
9
1
97
9
1
99
9
1
Source: FBI and Home Office
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01
0
2
03
0
2
Homicide in US (per
100,000)
Homicide in E&W (per
100,000)
2.5
Murders increasing in Scotland
Murder Trend in Scotland
Number of Incidents Recorded
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20
Source: Scottish Executive
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Violent crime rates increasing
Violent Crime Rates in England and the United
States
1600
Offences per 100,000
population
1400
1200
1000
E&W
800
US
600
400
200
0
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Sources: Home Office and FBI, 2001
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Robbery is increasing but gun ownership
(legal) is decreasing
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
80
19
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
82
19
84
19
86 988 990 992 994 996
19
1
1
1
1
1
Source: Greenwood, 2001
98
19
00
20
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Total Robberies
Shotgun Certificates
Shotgun Certificates and Robberies,
England & Wales
Shotgun Certificates
Total Robbery
Very few firearms used in homicide
are legally held
Fig. 6. Legal Status of Firearm in Firearm Homicide, England and Wales,
1992-1998
500
450
400
350
300
Total Firearms
250
Legally held
200
150
100
50
0
Organised crime
Domestic
Robbery
Arguments
Other
Source: Criminal Statistics, E&W, 2000,T 3D
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Total
Australia
Australian firearms legislation
• In 1997, government brought in sweeping
firearms legislation following shootings in
Tasmania
• Prohibited and confiscated semi-automatic
long arms,
• Introduced strict new licencing and
registration regulations
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Homicide rates stable in Australia
since 1997 gun law
Homicide Trends in Australia and United States
12
10
2.0
8
1.5
6
1.0
4
0.5
2
-
0
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20
Source: FBI and AIC
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Homicide rate in US (per
100,000)
Homicide rate in Australia
(per 100,000)
2.5
Australia
US
Violent crime growing in Australia,
but falling in the United States
Violent Crime Trends in the United States and Australia
700
600
200,000
500
150,000
400
300
100,000
200
50,000
100
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: AIC and FBI
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(United States) violent crime
per 100,000
(Australia) crimes recorded by
police
250,000
Australia
United States
Robbery rates are climbing in Australia
but falling in the US
Robbery Trends in Australia and United States
300
140
250
120
200
100
80
150
60
100
40
50
20
0
0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Source: AIC and FBI
American Society of Criminology
Robbery rate in US (per
100,000)
Robbery rate in Australia (per
100,000)
160
Australia
US
Canada
Canadian firearms legislation
• 1977, introduced police screening for
firearm purchasers
• 1991, stiffer rules for ownership, prohibited
a variety of firearms, magazines
• 1995, owner licensing and universal firearm
registration; banned many handguns
American Society of Criminology
Homicide rates decreasing faster in the US
than in Canada
3.00
12
2.50
10
2.00
8
1.50
6
1.00
4
0.50
2
-
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Source: FBI and Juris tat
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United States per 100,000
Canadian per 100,000
Trends in US and Canadian Homicide Rates
CDN
US
Violent crime rates are basically flat in
Canada, but falling in the US
Violent Crime Trends in the United States and
Canada
per 100,000 population
1200
1000
800
CDN
600
US
400
200
0
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20
Source: FBI and Juristat
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Decline in firearm suicide rate does not
reduce total suicide rate
Canadian Suicide Rates
Rates per 100,000 population
16
14
12
10
Total Suicide Rat e
Hanging Suicide Rate
Firearm Suicide Rate
8
6
4
2
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Source: Statistics Canada
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1995 Canadian firearms regulations
• Total costs expected to reach $2 billion in
2004
• Originally estimated to cost $2 million
• Corruption investigation ongoing
• No visible effect on violent crime rates or
suicide rates
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Summary
• No evidence that restrictive firearm
regulations have reduced violent crime or
homicide rates in Canada, Australia, Great
Britain, Jamaica, or the Republic of Ireland
• Only the United States has witnessed a
dramatic drop in criminal violence
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Tentative conclusions
• British-style firearm laws and gun bans are
ineffective and expensive
• Prediction: new gun laws will fail in both
Brazil and South Africa to curb violent
crime or homicide
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