Firearm Registration:
An Evaluation
Presented to
the Annual Convention of the
ANPP-NAPP
Calgary, Alberta
July 11, 2003
Professor Gary A. Mauser
Institute for Canadian Urban
Research Studies
Faculty of Business Administration
Simon Fraser University
Burnaby, BC
Brief History of Canadian
Firearm Laws
• Handgun registration - Proclaimed in 1934
• C-51 - Proclaimed in 1977
– Eg, FAC, unsafe storage
• C-17 - Proclaimed in 1991
– Eg, stiffer rules for the FAC
• C-68 - Proclaimed in 1995
– Eg, registration and licencing
Firearm Registration:
an Evaluation
•
•
•
•
•
Three topics in my presentation:
Has it worked?
What is the cost?
Implications for police
Conclusions
Has it worked?
The Politicians’ Promise:
Improved Public Safety
• “The goal of the new regulations is … to
help keep Canada safe… [and]to prevent
violence.”
– Allan Rock, Justice Minister, Nov. 27, 1996
• “..the firearms program is improv(ing)
public safety in Canada.”
– Martin Cauchon, Justice Minister, Dec. 3, 2002
New Ministry, Same Promise
• “[The firearm registration] system [is]
intended to be used … to make our streets
and communities safer.”
– Wayne Easter, Solicitor General, Jun 3, 2003
Has it worked?
• Has firearm registration delivered on its
promise of public safety?
• The true test is if violent crime drops
Violent crime, not gun deaths
• Crime is the traditional concern of the
police
• Gun crime is just a fraction of violent crime
• The public is not safer if gun crime
decreases while violent crime increases
How can firearm regulations help
to create a safer society?
• In theory, firearm registration will:
• Encourage responsibility among firearm owners
– By motivating citizen to be responsible
– By allowing police to check on each citizen
• Reduce the number of guns and gun owners
– Increased costs
– Increase bureaucratic hassle
• But does it work in practice?
Are Owners Complying?
• How successful is licencing?
• How successful is registration?
How Many Gun Owners Are
There?
Survey Estimates of Households with Firearms
Percent of households reporting one or more
firearm
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
1989
1990
1991
1992
1992
1993
1994
Source: Mauser (2001)
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
How Successful is Licencing?
Gun Licences and Gun Owners (Millions)
Post-1995 Poll Mean (Corr)
Gun owners (CFC Estimate)
Licences (estimated)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Source: Department of Justice, Mauser (2001)
3
3.5
4
How Many Owners Not Licenced?
• 300,000 unlicenced gun owners
– CFC estimate
• At least 1.5 Million unlicenced gun owners
– Post-1995 polls (Mauser)
How Successful is Registration?
Firearms in Canada (Millions)
Import/Export Estimate
Mean Estimate (Mauser)
CFC Estimate
Registered as of 1 July 03
0
5
10
15
20
Source: CFC, Surveys, Mauser (2001)
25
30
How Many Guns are Unregistered?
• 1.6 M unregistered guns
– CFC estimate
• At least 6 M unregistered guns
– Post-1995 Polls (Mauser)
Have Firearms Regulations
Reduced Violent Crime?
• Homicide
• Violent crime
• What about Suicide (80% of gun deaths)?
Source: Statistics Canada
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
Homicides per 100,000 population
Homicide in Canada
Canadian Homicide Rate
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
-
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
Canadian homicide rate
3.50
3.00
2.50
8
2.00
6
1.50
1.00
4
0.50
2
0
US homicide rate
It Can’t be Canadian Gun Laws
US Canadian Homicide rates
12
10
CDN
US
Trend in Robbery and Firearm
Robbery
140
45
40
120
30
80
25
60
20
15
40
10
20
5
Source: Stats Can (Cat 85-205)
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
19
76
0
19
74
0
19
All Robbery Rates
100
Firearm Robbery Rates
35
All Robbery
Firearm Robbery
Trend in Armed Robbery
140
80
120
70
40
60
30
40
20
20
10
Source: Stats Can (Cat 85-205)
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
19
76
0
19
74
0
19
All Robbery Rate
50
80
Armed Robbery Rate
60
100
All Robbery
Armed Robbery
Violent Crime Trends
Violent Crime Rates in Canada and the United States
Offences per 100,000 population
1200
1000
800
CDN
600
US
400
200
0
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Sources: Juristat, 2002; FBI, 2002
Source: Preville (2003)
94
98
19
96
19
90
92
19
19
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
19
76
74
19
19
Total Suicide Rate per 100,000
population
16
14
5
12
10
4
8
3
6
2
4
2
1
0
0
Firearm Suicide Rate per 100,000
population
What About Suicide?
Firearms and Suicide in Canada
6
Total Suicide Rate
Firearm Suicide Rate
What is the Cost?
Three Kinds of Costs
• Implementation costs
• Enforcement costs
• Opportunity costs
Implementation Costs of
Registration
• Auditor General estimated that the
Department of Justice costs would be
• At least one billion dollars by ‘04-’05
– Auditor General’s Report, Dec. 2002
Unknown Additional Costs
• Federal government did not fully cooperate with
Auditor General
• AG did not examine other cooperating agencies,
e.g.,
– Solicitor General
– Customs
• These unknown costs may total another Billion
dollars
Enforcement Costs of Registration
• Easily cost still another billion dollars
• Between 300,000 and 1.5 M owners in noncompliance
• Enforcement costs per conviction
– At least $3,000
– Up to $10,000
• A possible total of three billion dollars
Opportunity Costs of Registration
• We could have spent these billions on:
•
•
•
•
More police, better salaries
Fighting organized crime
Fighting terrorism
Expanded corrections
82
Source: Can Sim
02
00
20
20
96
98
19
19
94
92
19
19
88
90
19
19
86
19
84
19
19
80
78
19
19
76
19
74
19
72
70
19
19
66
68
19
19
64
19
62
19
Police per 100,000 population
Slow Decline in Police Officers per
Capita
Police Officers per Capita
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
-
Police Budgets
(Not Adjusted for Inflation)
Total Expenditures on Police
$8,000,000
Expenditures (000)
(Not adjusted for Inflation)
$7,000,000
$6,000,000
$5,000,000
$4,000,000
$3,000,000
$2,000,000
$1,000,000
$1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Source: Statistics Canada
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Real Police Expenditures are Flat
(weighted by CPI)
Expenditures for Police Personnel
(Weighted by CPI)
$120.00
Budget per Officer
$100.00
$80.00
Police Officers
$60.00
Total Personnel
$40.00
$20.00
$1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Source: Statistics Canada, 2002
Fighting Organized Crime
• Prosecutions are difficult, expensive
• Funding very limited
• Charges infrequent
Fighting Terrorism
• Screening immigrants and visitors to
Canada
• Tracking illegal immigrants with
deportation orders
• Budgets are extremely limited
Some Facts about Terrorists
• 36,000 immigrants ordered deported have
been ‘lost’
– Auditor General, April 2003
• 8,000-10,000 Tamil terrorists in Canada
– Mackenzie Institute, July 9, 2003
Expanded Corrections
•
•
•
•
Longer prison terms
More prison sentences
More probation and parole officers
More prisons
• Corrections budget flat for past decade (after
accounting for inflation)
Implications for Police
Implications for Police
•
•
•
•
Expansion of the “grey market”
Increase in the “black market”
Increased risk for police
Registration violates basic police principles
Increased Risk to Police
• Inaccurate registry creates
– False positives
– False negatives
• RCMP has concerns about errors in registry
and poor screening of gun owners
False negatives
• When the police are called out to a house
where NO firearms are registered,
• Does no registration mean - no firearm?
• Few violent criminals will register their
guns
• The police CANNOT trust the registry
False positives
• When police called out to an address where
a firearm is registered,
• Does a registered gun mean ‘danger’?
• Only the most law-abiding people will
register their guns.
• The gun registry misleads police
Firearm Registration Violates
Basic Police Principles
Sir Robert Peel, England
• The founder of modern policing
• Introduced the London “Bobbies”
• In 1822, he developed basic policing
principles
Firearm Registration Violates
these Principles
• The police are the public, and the public are
the police
• The police need the willing cooperation of
the public to enforce the laws
Implications for Police
• Firearm registration undermines support for
the police
• Firearm registration reduces public
willingness to cooperate with the police
• Policing resembles military occupation
forces
Conclusions
• Firearm registration has not increased
public safety
• Firearm registration is diverting billions of
dollars away from legitimate police
activities
Conclusions
• Firearm registration undermines support for
the police
• Firearm registration increases the risk for
police
PEEL’S NINE PRINCIPLES
OF POLICING:
Sir Robert Peel, England (1822)
PEEL’S PRINCIPLES OF
POLICING
1. To prevent crime and disorder, as an
alternative to their repression by military
force and by severity of legal punishment.
2. To recognize always that the power of the
police to fulfill their functions and duties is
dependent on public approval of their existence,
actions and behavior, and on their ability to
secure and maintain public respect.
PEEL’S PRINCIPLES OF
POLICING
3. To recognize always that to secure and
maintain the respect and approval of the public
means also the securing of willing cooperation
of the public in the task of securing observance
of laws.
4. To recognize always that the extent to which
the cooperation of the public can be secured
diminishes, proportionately, the necessity of the
use of physical force and compulsion for
achieving police objectives.
PEEL’S PRINCIPLES OF
POLICING
5. To seek and to preserve public favour, not
by pandering to public opinion, but by
constantly demonstrating absolutely
impartial service to law, in complete
independence of policy, and without regard
to the justice or injustices of the substance
of individual laws; …; and by ready offering
of individual sacrifice in protecting and
preserving life.
PEEL’S PRINCIPLES OF
POLICING
6. To use physical force only when the
exercise of persuasion, advice and
warning is found to be insufficient to
obtain public cooperation to an extent
necessary to secure observance of law or
to restore order; and to use only the
minimum degree of physical force which
is necessary on any particular occasion
for achieving a police objective.
PEEL’S PRINCIPLES OF
POLICING
7. To maintain at all time a relationship
with the public that gives reality to the
historic tradition that the police are the
public and that the public are the police;
the police being only members of the
public who are paid to give full-time
attention to duties which are incumbent
on every citizen, in the interests of
community welfare and existence.
PEEL’S PRINCIPLES OF
POLICING
8. To recognize always the need for strict
adherence to police-executive functions,
and to refrain from even seeming to
usurp the powers of the judiciary of
avenging individuals or the state, and of
authoritatively judging guilt and
punishing the guilty.
PEEL’S PRINCIPLES OF
POLICING
9. To recognize always that the test of
police efficiency is the absence of crime
and disorder, and not the visible evidence
of police action in dealing with them.