Canada’s
Gun Registry:
Should it be Scrapped? Or can it
be Fixed?
Fraser Institute Policy Briefing
January 22, 2004
Gary Mauser
Professor
Canadian Institute for Urban Research Studies
Faculty of Business Administration
Simon Fraser University
Some promises:
ÿ
“The goal of the new regulations is … to help
keep Canada safe… [and]to prevent violence.”
l
ÿ
“..the Firearms Program is improv(ing) public
safety in Canada.”
l
ÿ
Allan Rock, Justice Minister, Nov. 27, 1996
Martin Cauchon, Justice Minister, Dec. 3, 2002
“The goal of the (firearms) program is to
protect Canadians from violence…”
l
Public Safety Minister Anne McLellan, Jan. 2004
Homicides Since 1995
700
600
Frequencies
500
400
total homicides
homicides w/firearms
homicides w/handguns
300
200
100
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
AG’s Minimum Estimated
Cost
$1,200,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$800,000,000
$600,000,000
$400,000,000
$200,000,000
$0
Original Estimate
Department of Justice
Why so much?
ÿ
There were ‘virtually no records’,
l
Auditor General
ÿ
Back door financing
ÿ
Secrecy breeds unaccountability
ÿ
RCMP is now investigating
Limitations of the AG’s Report
ÿ “We
stopped our audit when an initial
review indicated that there were significant
shortcomings in the information provided.
We concluded that the information does
not fairly represent the cost of the program
to government.”
l
Auditor General Sheila Fraser, Dec. 2002
What about Partners’ Costs?
Another 1.5 Billion
$1,600,000,000
$1,400,000,000
$1,200,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$800,000,000
$600,000,000
$400,000,000
$200,000,000
$Department of Justice
Cooperating Departments, Agencies, Provinces and
Territories
Total Costs as of 2004
ÿ1
billion for Department of Justice
[minimum]
ÿ 1.5 billion for cooperating Agencies and
Provinces and Territories [estimate]
ÿ Gun owners have paid more than $550
million to comply with regulations
Another Billion for
Enforcement
$1,600,000,000
$1,400,000,000
$1,200,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$800,000,000
$600,000,000
$400,000,000
$200,000,000
$0
Department of Justice
Cooperating Departments, Agencies,
Provinces and Territories
Enforcement
How Much More Will it Cost?
ÿ Another
ÿ It
1 Billion for Enforcement
is unknown how much it will cost to
complete owner licencing and firearm
registration
The RCMP Lacks Confidence
in the Registry
ÿ
ÿ
ÿ
ÿ
ÿ
19 breaches of CPIC
People known to have violent records may have
been issued a firearm licence
CFC stopped checking applicants in order to
save money
4,438 stolen firearms successfully re-registered
Attempts to trace 101,000 stolen firearms found
250,000 matching serial numbers
Are We Safer?
ÿ Total homicides have gone from 588 in
1995 to 582 in 2002
ÿ Domestic homicides have increased from
177 in 1995 to 182 in 2002
ÿ Firearm homicides have decreased from
176 in 1995 to 149 in 2002
ÿ Handgun homicides have gone from 95 in
1995 to 98 in 2002
What do the Police Think?
ÿ
“The difficulty of course is that we haven’t yet
come across any situation where the gun
registry would have enabled us to either prevent
or solve any of these crimes.”
l
ÿ
Toronto Police Chief Julian Fantino (Jan 6, 2003)
“… we need more police officers. This is not
rocket science.”
l
Vancouver Police Chief Jamie Graham (Jan. 22,
2004).
Homicide Rates Declining
Faster in the United States
3.00
12
2.50
10
2.00
8
1.50
6
1.00
4
0.50
2
-
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Sources: Firearm Stats, DOJ, 2000; FBI, Index of Crime, 2003
1999
2000
United States per 100,000
population
Canada per 100,000 population
Homicide Rates in Canada and the United States
CDN
US
Violent Crime Growing in
Canada
Violent Crime Rates in Canada and the United States
Offences per 100,000 population
1200
1000
800
CDN
600
US
400
200
0
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Sources: Juristat, 2002; FBI, 2002
Suicide Rate Higher in
Canada
Comparing Canadian and US Suicide Rates
Total suicide per 100,000 population
16
14
12
10
USA
8
Canada
6
4
2
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Source: US: National DHHS; Canada: Stats Can
1998
1999
2000
Firearm Deaths Decline, But
Total Suicides Stable
Firearms and Suicide in Canada
5
12
4
10
8
3
6
2
4
1
2
Year
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
19
76
0
19
74
0
Firearm Suicide Rate per 100,000
population
6
14
19
Total Suicide Rate per 100,000
population
16
Total Suicide Rate
Firearm Suicide Rate
Lack of Public Support
ÿ 5 provinces
and all 3 territories refuse to
administer the firearms program
ÿ 8 provinces refuse to enforce the act
ÿ Half of owners refuse to get a licence
ÿ Half of all firearms are registered
ÿ Ten percent of Native Canadians have a
firearm licence
Firearms Act Does Not
Aim at Criminals
ÿ
Law-abiding firearm owners are required to
report change of address within 30 days or risk a
two-year jail sentence
ÿ
The Firearms Act does NOT require the
following classes to report a change of address:
131,000 convicted criminals who have been
prohibited from owing firearms
36,000 persons with active restraining orders
9,000 persons with refused/revoked firearm
licences
ÿ
ÿ
ÿ
The Firearms Act is Off Target
ÿ Licencing
and registration is misdirected
ÿ Normal people do not commit violent
crimes
The Firearms Act is Off Target
ÿ Two-thirds of
those accused of murder
had a criminal record
ÿ 73% of those had a previous conviction for
a violent offence (and 8 for murder)
ÿ Over half of murder victims had a criminal
record
ÿ In Vancouver, 6 robbers commit 43% of
bank robberies (Van Sun, Jan 22, 2004)
Conclusions
ÿ Should scrap the
firearm registry
ÿ Licencing and registration are off target
ÿ Should focus on violent criminals
Should Target Violent
Criminals
ÿ Longer prison terms for
violent offenders
ÿ Monitor parolees more thoroughly
ÿ Monitor violent offenders who have been
ordered deported
ÿ Reinstate the Ports Police
ÿ Screen incoming mail more thoroughly
Property Crime Higher in
Canada
Property Crime in Canada and the United States
Offences per 100,000 population
7000
6000
5000
4000
CDN
US
3000
2000
1000
0
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Sources: Juristat, 2002; FBI, 2002
Are Gun Owners
Cooperating?
Cooperation of Canadian Gun Owners
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
CFC (2004)
DOJ (1998)
4 M estimate
How many gun owners are there?
5 M estimate
Native Canadians are Not
Cooperating
Native and Non-Native Cooperation
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
4 M estimate
5 M estimate
Natives