The 1995 Canadian Firearms
Legislation - Ten Years Later
Gary Mauser, Ph D
ANZSOC Conference
Wellington, NZ
February 2005
Gary Mauser
Professor
Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies
Simon Fraser University
Burnaby, BC
Canada
February 2005
Canada has long had strict firearms law
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1880s - firearm permit required
1920s - anti-Bolshevick law
1934 - handguns registered
1967 - modern framework for law
1977 - FAC
1991 - Kim Campbell
1995 - Allan Rock
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The 1991 Canadian Firearms Legislation
(1991 through 1994)
• Registration/ban of semi-automatic militarystyle rifles, and high-capacity magazines,
• Increased FAC requirements:
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- firearm safety course,
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- 35-question application form,
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- passport-type photograph
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- two references (spouse required)
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- mandatory 28-day waiting period
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In 1994 Canada Consulted with New
Zealand
• The Canadians were advised that firearms
registration
– would be exceptionally difficult to achieve
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- with an acceptable error rate
•
- at an acceptable cost
• - The results probably not worth the effort
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The 1995 Canadian Firearms Legislation
(1995 through 2003)
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•
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Prohibition of over half of all registered handguns
Stricter regulations
Broadened police powers
July 1998 - Registration of firearms begun
January 2000 – Licensing of firearm owners begun
January 1, 2001 – All firearm owners required to be
licensed
• July 1, 2003 – All firearms required to be registered
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Criteria for evaluation
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Reasonable cost
Acceptable error rate
High level of compliance
Public support
Effective in improving public safety
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Cost estimates of owner licencing
and universal firearm registration
• Original estimate in 1995
$C 2 million
• AG partial estimate (DOJ)
$C 1 billion
• To date for all agencies
$C 2 billion
• Original estimate off by a factor of 1,000
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Organizational problems
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•
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Failure to understand project scope
Failure to plan for inter-agency cooperation
Information criteria differ across agencies
Some participants opposed to firearm ownership
in principle
• Failure to consult with owners, provinces, or
Natives
• Government cover-up of costs
ANZSOC 2005
Data quality of firearm registry
• Over 5 million of the 7 million registered firearms
are un-verified
• Error rate between 50% and 90%
– Errors in description of firearm or owner
• Few criminal record checks of owners
• No information on location of registered rifles or
shotguns
• No information on more than 170,000 people with
firearm prohibition orders
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Police do not trust the registry
• RCMP told Auditor General they do not trust the
information (2004)
• Toronto Police Chief reports (2003) the system
has not helped solve a single homicide
• Police Association of Ontario said they fail to get
information requested 95% of the time (2002)
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Public support for the firearm
registry
• 77% of Canadian public agree that “the firearm
registry should be scrapped.”
– (JMCK Polling, N= 1,586, April 2004)
• 8 out of 10 provinces declined to cooperate with
federal government in registry (2003)
• 6 out of 10 Provinces challenged the
constitutionality of Firearms Act (2000)
ANZSOC 2005
Owner cooperation
CFC CFC
Mauser DOJ
actual estimate estimate estimate
(1995)
Firearm owners 2 M 2.2 M
3.5 - 4.5 7 + M
M
Firearms
7M
7.7 M
ANZSOC 2005
12 - 13
M
25 + M
Participation rates
• Approximately 50% of firearm owners have
complied
• Less than 25% of residents of First Nations
communities have complied
• Approximately 50% of firearms stock is
registered
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Evaluation
Do licencing and registration improve
public safety?
Which measures are the
most appropriate?
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Gun deaths
Gun crime
Gun violence
Total violent crime
Total homicide
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How measure public safety?
• Gun death?
– Gun deaths are falling in Canada
– Gun homicides falling
– Gun suicides falling
• Is it a success?
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Trends in Canadian Gun Deaths
Gun Homicide Gun Suicide
Total
1991
271
1,108
1,379
1995
176
916
1,092
1998
151
818
969
2001
171
651
822
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Canadian Suicide Trends
Firearm
Suicides
Hanging
Suicides
Total
Suicides
1991
1,108
1,034
3,593
1995
916
1,382
3,968
1998
818
1,434
3,698
2001
651
1,509
3,688
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Gun Death is a Red Herring
• Gun deaths are largely suicides
• Suicide is not central to public safety
• Strong substitution effect
• The removal of firearms or sharps must balance
liberty with personal safety
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Trends in Canadian Suicide Rates
16
Rates per 100,000 population
14
12
10
Total
Hanging
Firearm
8
6
4
2
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Source: Statistics Canada, Catalogue 84F0209XPB
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2000
2001
Trends in Suicide Rates in Australia
16.0
Standardized Rates per 100,000
14.0
12.0
10.0
Firearms
Hanging
Total
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1991
1992 1993
1994 1995
1996
1997 1998
1999 2000
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
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2001
Social costs of the decline in
gun ownership
• Hunters are the driving force behind conservation
• Hunters pay $70 million annually in licence fees
• Hunters donate $33 million annually for habitat
and conservation projects
• Hunters spend almost half ($2.7 billion) on all
expenditures on wildlife related activities
• Increased number of wildlife-vehicle collisions
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How measure public safety?
• Gun crime?
• 47% of gun crime is permit violations
• Not a measure of violence, but regulatory
enforcement
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Gun Crime in Canada, 2003
Number
Percentage
10,037
47%
Other offensive weapon
charge
4,510
21%
Robbery with firearm
3,877
18%
Firearm usage
2,256
11%
Homicide with firearm
161
1%
Discharge with intent
223
1%
Trafficking
137
1%
21,201
100%
Illegal possession
Total crimes with firearms
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How measure public safety?
• Gun violence?
• Gun violence is small fraction of violent
crime
• Not even the worst violence
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Gun violence and violent crime
Australia
Violent Homicide Robbery
crime
1%
14%
6%
England and
Wales
1%
9%
4%
Canada
2%
31%
14%
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Injuries caused by weapons during
assault, Canada 2003
Firearm
Knife
Club
Major physical injuries
6%
11%
14%
Minor physical injuries
40%
40%
60%
No injuries
52%
47%
24%
Unknown
2%
2%
2%
Number of incidents
812
5,760
5,432
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How measure public safety?
• Gun homicide?
• Gun homicides are only a fraction of total
homicides
• Can reducing gun homicides reduce total
homicide?
• Substitution effect is quite powerful
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Homicide trends in Canada
1996
1998
2000 2002
2003
Homicide rate 2.1
2.0
1.8
1.7
% Firearm
27%
34% 26%
33%
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1.9
29%
Homicide trends in Australia
1996
1998
2000 2002
2003
Homicide rate 1.7
1.8
1.6
1.6
% Firearm
17%
19% 13%
33%
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1.6
13%
How should we measure
improvements in public safety?
• Violent crime rates should drop
• Not just criminal violence involving guns,
but all criminal violence should fall
• Homicide rates should fall
• Not just gun homicide, but total homicide
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More appropriate measures of public
safety
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Homicide rate
Robbery rate
Armed robbery rate
Violent crime rate
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12
2.50
10
2.00
8
1.50
6
1.00
4
0.50
2
-
0
Source: Statistics Canada and FBI
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USA Rate per 100,000 pop
3.00
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
Canadian Rate per 100,000 pop
Homicide Trends in Canada and USA
CDN
US
Gang Related Homicides in Canada
18.0
2.50
16.0
Percent Gang Homicides
12.0
1.50
10.0
8.0
1.00
6.0
4.0
0.50
2.0
0.0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Source: Statistics Canada
ANZSOC 2005
Homicides per 100,000 pop
2.00
14.0
% gang related
Total homicide rate
Violent Crime Trends in Canada and USA
1000
800
CDN
US
600
400
200
Source: Statistics Canada and the FBI
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20
02
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
0
19
82
Offence rate per 100,000 population
1200
Trends in Armed Robbery in Australia
Armed Robberies
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2002
2003
6256
9054
10850 9452
9474
7817
7162
25%
24%
18%
14%
15%
16%
% Firearm
ANZSOC 2005
15%
Violent Crime Trends in Australia and USA
Offences per 100,000 population
1200.0
1000.0
800.0
Aust ralia
Unit ed St ates
600.0
400.0
200.0
0.0
1993 1995 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Sources: ABS 4510.0, FBI Crime Statis tics
ANZSOC 2005
Summary and Conclusion
• The 1995 Firearms Act is not a success
– Incomplete coverage
– Unacceptably high error rate
– No evidence for effectiveness
• Firearms registry cost $2 billion -- other
public safety measures under funded
• The registry has reduced firearms access but
has not improved public safety
ANZSOC 2005
Suggested alternatives
• Improve monitoring of criminals on
probation and parole
• Increase prison time for violent criminals
• Increase port security
• Increase number of police officers
• Tighten controls on deportation orders
ANZSOC 2005